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Justin Trudeau calls election

Wants his party to hold a majority of seats.

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by Anonymousreply 601September 1, 2021 3:31 PM

I'll go with erection.

by Anonymousreply 1August 12, 2021 11:20 PM

Long, but great rundown of why Trudeau can call an election. Governor General has no choice, rather, it's up to voters to decide if Trudeau made the right call or not.

I suspect the Liberals will win, but it may not be a majority. I think the numbers will get tighter as covid cases start to rise again and people see this as nothing but a blatant power move.

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by Anonymousreply 2August 13, 2021 2:16 AM

Another minority. NDP as official opposition. Trudeau announces at Christmas intention to go, either straight away or when a new leader is in place.

by Anonymousreply 3August 13, 2021 3:34 AM

He can bend me to his will anytime. Especially now that that horrid beard is gone.

by Anonymousreply 4August 13, 2021 3:52 AM

New ABACUS poll:

Most Canadians won’t be upset if early election called; Liberals lead by 9 over Conservatives

August 12, 2021

Liberals (37%)

Conservatives (28%)

NDP (20%)

Green Party (5%)

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by Anonymousreply 5August 13, 2021 11:07 AM

Did he dress in blackface and hit a woman when he made the announcement? Because he did both of those things in the past.

by Anonymousreply 6August 13, 2021 11:30 AM

He just experiences racist and sexist acts differently.

by Anonymousreply 7August 13, 2021 11:33 AM

The oh-so-hot Trudeau can do no wrong, whereas the Anti-Trudeau Cunt Troll R6's life has been a tragic mistake since her unwanted conception.

by Anonymousreply 8August 13, 2021 11:38 AM

R5's poll shows how unpredictable this will be, because on the same day The Toronto Star, not unfriendly to the Liberals, ran a poll that said 2/3rd of Canadians don't want an election right now. Polling numbers otherwise quite similar. This feels like one to me where somebody like Singh has a real shot at standing out in a good way and where a campaign trail gaffe - any gaffe - could be disastrous. People are volatile and this is all going to happen during the fourth wave. Tough backdrop.

Fasten your seatbelts, put on your helmets, wear your mask...

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by Anonymousreply 9August 13, 2021 12:09 PM

Thank you for the explanation, R2.

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by Anonymousreply 10August 13, 2021 4:47 PM

I think he's dreaming if he thinks he's going to get a majority government.

I for one, won't be voting for his party.

by Anonymousreply 11August 13, 2021 4:53 PM

It's will be a Liberal government, the question is minority or majority. If it's a minority, the Liberals are in a tricky spot because the pressure to get rid of Trudeau will start to rise but there is no "leader in the wings" right now and getting rid of a PM in the middle of a minority is not the best move.

R5 Those numbers will narrow as we get close to the election I think. Historically large gaps between the party in the lead tend to slim as the campaign goes on.

R9 I'm still on the fence if the NDP will really make a significant break through this election. The NDP's policies are, ironically, the most in line with public thinking if the polls are to be believed (e.g. UBI, pharmacare, wealth tax etc.). But the NDP would need to pick up seats in Quebec to have a shot at opposition but sorry, racist Quebec is not going to vote for a man in a turban.

Conservatives who hate O'Toole are not going to vote Liberal or NDP so they'll stay home and that's Trudeau's best hope particularly in seat rich Ontario for a majority.

by Anonymousreply 12August 13, 2021 5:06 PM

R11 is right. This is big miscalculation by Trudeau.

by Anonymousreply 13August 13, 2021 5:23 PM

Thank you God! Someone finally told him he was ugly as fuck with his beard

by Anonymousreply 14August 13, 2021 5:32 PM

Still straight?

by Anonymousreply 15August 13, 2021 5:34 PM

Bi, R15, if he brings in some extra votes.

by Anonymousreply 16August 13, 2021 5:39 PM

R16 Hmmm... Can Europeans travel to Ottawa? I would like to do some Trudeau tourism.

by Anonymousreply 17August 13, 2021 5:42 PM

Is Trudeau one of those unwashers like Jake? The French are pretty funky.

I could see him and Jake getting it on despite the stank. Maybe even enjoying it.

by Anonymousreply 18August 13, 2021 5:45 PM

R18 So Frenchie...

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by Anonymousreply 19August 13, 2021 5:56 PM

R18 shhhht....

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by Anonymousreply 20August 13, 2021 6:00 PM

R12, who are you kidding? Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney... and about twenty other members of cabinet and caucus who think they could do the job ten times better.

And they aren't exactly big shoes to fill as it is.

by Anonymousreply 21August 13, 2021 9:19 PM

He is such a smug privileged cunt. He;s exactly what progressives rail against but they continue to keep him in power.

by Anonymousreply 22August 13, 2021 9:58 PM

Well that's because most Liberals aren't true progressives, R22. Most Liberals just talk a good game. They're like a cuddlier version of the cons in some way, especially on things like Indigenous and environmental issues.

by Anonymousreply 23August 13, 2021 10:28 PM

The Liberals are the centre. That's why they tend to win.

by Anonymousreply 24August 13, 2021 10:44 PM

Slipping already....

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by Anonymousreply 25August 14, 2021 1:07 AM

I doubt he'll get a majority. Oh well.

by Anonymousreply 26August 14, 2021 2:52 AM

He should have called an election back in June when the vaccines were rolling steadily and numbers were decreasing rapidly. Now, we're headed for a forth wave and people are getting pissed again.

by Anonymousreply 27August 14, 2021 3:43 AM

He should have opened the border then too, when the Americans were willing to.

One thing the Liberals have a problem with is timing. They talk too much and wait too long. Didn't close the border in a timely way - got a lot of unnecessary criticism. Didn't control the airports in a timely way - got a lot of unnecessary criticism,. Didn't get vaccines sorted in a timely way - got a lot of unnecessary criticism. Didn't open the border when things looked good in June - got a lot of unnecessary criticism. Opened the border without the Americans and now we can't get in and we have no bargaining power - OK, he deserves that criticism. Talked too much about the election and didn't call it - got a lot of unnecessary criticism.

Too much talk from them and it only harms their own interests. Another minority and then he has to resign and make way for someone else.

by Anonymousreply 28August 14, 2021 3:51 AM

The Conservatives' new anti-Trudeau ad has been roundly condemned -- even by right-wing media.

by Anonymousreply 29August 14, 2021 11:02 AM

^ That's one of the things you can always count on the Conservatives for. Ugly over the top ads that backfire. Bit early though.

by Anonymousreply 30August 14, 2021 1:09 PM

I think we need a majority government if we ever want to see the subsidies shut off. I have no problem with CERB (or the program that replaced it) but the payroll subsidies have to go. A minority government will be pressured into keeping those overly-generous payroll subsidies flowing.

by Anonymousreply 31August 14, 2021 4:32 PM

NDP are officially in play in Ontario.

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by Anonymousreply 32August 14, 2021 9:40 PM

Fuck the Greens

by Anonymousreply 33August 14, 2021 9:43 PM

The truth is the NDP's platform will play well: Wealth tax, UBI, pharmacare etc. all have majority support in Canada now. Strategic voting will likely determine if it's a liberal government. I'm leaning NDP this time around, I think post-covid we need big change in this country.

by Anonymousreply 34August 14, 2021 9:45 PM

I think it is fifty-fifty he even goes ahead with it now.

They're just talking about making it official and the polls are narrowing. I think there is a very good chance they panic and pull back. The only elections on the books are municipal in Ontario in October 2022 and provincially in Ontario by June 6, 2022. That's a pretty wide open calendar. He could have an August campaign for a September vote and maybe save their butts.

by Anonymousreply 35August 14, 2021 10:40 PM

[quote] I think post-covid we need big change in this country.

The only change you will get by voting NDP is a Conservative Government

by Anonymousreply 36August 14, 2021 10:44 PM

It seems to me the way the opposition is opposing an election seems over the top. Jagmeet Singh was practically begging not to have an election, as he has written letters to the Governor General and Trudeau, later leaking those letters to the media

My guess is that parties internal polling is showing much stronger Liberal support, than the public polling - Hence the overboard rhetoric about not wanting an election

The Liberal war room have very smart people, and the best number crunchers and polling data in Canada. I don't think Trudeau would call this election, unless he knew for sure he would win.

by Anonymousreply 37August 14, 2021 10:53 PM

FFS R6 in 2016 Trudeau inadvertently elbowed female NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the chest while she was behind him during the drama on the floor of parliament.

She played it to the hilt, both the lefties in the NDP and the desperate conservatives went berserk accusing Trudeau of " manhandling" her while the electorate collectively rolled their eyes.

As far as the brown/black face, voters once again said big frickin deal and moved on paying no attention to the always panicked conservatives and re elected Trudeau and the Liberals a few years later.

The best thing about Canadian elections is they're all over in a couple of months. The longest recent federal election campaign lasted 78 days in 2015.

by Anonymousreply 38August 14, 2021 11:10 PM

No one ever - EVER - knows for sure they can win. They have a notion, before the campaign starts, and then the campaign starts and it all starts going wrong. It always does. People are volatile, never more so than now. He proposes to go into an election with a fourth wave rising and the unnecessary election meme rising. If this is the best minds at work, I'd sure hate to see the worst. (In fairness, they're probably in the Conservative war room.) But those two are real wild cards - COVID especially. This call might have worked before the fourth wave but it is ill advised. By the end of September every mommy with a kid in school will be screaming for somebody's head. He'll be lucky to earn another minority. Too volatile.

by Anonymousreply 39August 14, 2021 11:24 PM

Oh please, R36. Enough Liberal fear mongering. If I takes Trudeau losing for the Liberals to smarten up then so be it.

by Anonymousreply 40August 14, 2021 11:36 PM

Game on.

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by Anonymousreply 41August 15, 2021 1:22 AM

Who are the idiots supporting the Greens? Are they all idiots like May?

by Anonymousreply 42August 15, 2021 1:48 AM

R36 That's all the liberals have really: " If you don't vote for us, you'll get the Bogeyman."

They've had six years to deliver on their promises and frankly, nothing has changed since the Harper years. Cons and Libs are both beholden to their rich, corporate donors and I'm not going to be scared into supporting that shit any more.

by Anonymousreply 43August 15, 2021 2:48 AM

Anyone who supports the NDP and Greens might as well vote Conservative. Green Party supporters are a special kind of idiots given the Annamie Paul drama

by Anonymousreply 44August 15, 2021 4:20 AM

R43 We’ve delivered on almost all our promises. I’m really proud of the work our government has done especially on Indigenous issues. There wouldn’t be a MMIWG inquiry without us

by Anonymousreply 45August 15, 2021 4:22 AM

B.C. is literally on fire, and he's going to go ahead with an election, with 1000s of people on evacuation order? He needs the lower mainland and he won't get it now.

by Anonymousreply 46August 15, 2021 8:21 AM
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by Anonymousreply 47August 15, 2021 8:24 AM

the lower mainland is not on fire.

Perhaps in the election campaign Green Party of Canada Leader Annamie Paul and her assistant Noah Zatzman can convince evacuees of Lytton and northern BC communities that Zionism is every bit as crucial to these people as are policies to deal with the urgent and present calamity of wildfires.

by Anonymousreply 48August 15, 2021 8:26 AM

[italic] Green Party supporters are a special kind of idiots given the Annamie Paul drama

Why do you say that? Jenica Atwin was a Green Party supporter at one time. One can support the original, defining platform policies of the Green Party and not necessarily back the GPC leader. Look at the inner circle turmoil in the GPC. Similarly, Erin O'Toole is viewed only by a minority of the Conservative Party to be capable of governing. Maybe Annamie Paul is a special kind of idiot for losing 33% of the GPC's MPs in the House of Commons for demanding fealty for an issue her predecessor didn't view as critical to environmentalism?

by Anonymousreply 49August 15, 2021 8:31 AM

So who cares then, right, R48? The interior is on fire. People are displaced and 1000s more are ready to evacuate. Vancouver has the world's worst air quality from all the smoke. But all you care about is whether or not the Lower Mainland votes for him since Vancouver itself is not burning.

The Delta variant numbers are on the rise too.

Jean Chretien waited till the floods in Manitoba were over before he called an election in 1997, and they were no where near as serious as what's going on now.

This is not the time for an election and everyone knows it. Don't be surprised if there's backlash and Trudeau eeks out a slim minority.

by Anonymousreply 50August 15, 2021 8:42 AM
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by Anonymousreply 51August 15, 2021 8:45 AM

R32, those Ontario numbers are troubling. I hope the NDP doesn't split the vote.

by Anonymousreply 52August 15, 2021 11:07 AM

There's an interesting article in The Star about the Nova Scotia election... which has tightened. It cites three reasons that probably aren't analogous to the federal campaign, but the risk is:

First, the incumbent Premier (Liberal- Rankin) didn't have the job during the largely successful management of COVID in Nova Scotia. Second, there is significant overlap in the platform of all three parties, and, third, Rankin’s opponents are arguably running stronger campaigns....

"Those factors have the potential to create upheaval in an election that could be decided by low voter turnout and — as she puts it — voter promiscuity, which sometimes occurs when a campaign lacks a singular polarizing candidate or issue, as is the case in Nova Scotia."

The Liberals risk is the single polarizing issue becomes a negative for them - i.e. the unnecessary, self-interested election - or something in the NDP platform captures the imagination - like the wealth tax on the super rich....

It's going to be another minority and Justin will have to go. He will have delivered two consecutive minorities. That's the end of that.

by Anonymousreply 53August 15, 2021 2:16 PM

It's on...

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by Anonymousreply 54August 15, 2021 4:13 PM

It's official. September 20th.

by Anonymousreply 55August 15, 2021 4:38 PM

This is bad call. I feel like this is going to blow up in Trudeau's face.

by Anonymousreply 56August 15, 2021 4:39 PM

Elections Canada has confirmed that you can vote my mail.

by Anonymousreply 57August 15, 2021 7:29 PM

*by mail.

by Anonymousreply 58August 15, 2021 7:29 PM

Listening to Trudeau's speech this morning...he does realize he's been PM for 6 years now right? He's talking like there's been another government in power all this time.

by Anonymousreply 59August 15, 2021 8:10 PM

The social media reaction is bad for Trudeau, though that's probably no different than usual.

by Anonymousreply 60August 15, 2021 8:15 PM

He didn't sound good today. Pretty weak, actually.

O'Toole and Singh also bombed.

Paul was the strongest, but she's not a factor.

by Anonymousreply 61August 15, 2021 9:09 PM

I think I am rapidly becoming the minority troll but I see a minority Liberal gov't. What will be interesting is who makes up the Opposition, because I can see the NDP doing well. I also predict alot of screaming about strategic voting in the last week. This will be a waste of money and time.

by Anonymousreply 62August 15, 2021 9:11 PM

Is any political party in Canada opposed to T ideology?

by Anonymousreply 63August 15, 2021 9:14 PM

I agree, it's a total waste of time, R62 and Trudeau will get a minority. I think he'll step down before the election after this one.

I'm not so worried about Covid interfering, since people still went grocery shopping etc... during lockdown. Going to the polls isn't any more dangerous than that, but the fires in B.C. is an issue, especially given that people are displaced, and there's no guarantee that the fires will be over by September. The optics of people having to vote while their homes burn is fucking awful.

Trudeau is also being increasingly slammed for the government's inaction on getting people evacuated from Afghanistan. This may become an election issue for the Conservatives and the NDP.

by Anonymousreply 64August 15, 2021 9:18 PM

It’s an election about nothing.

by Anonymousreply 65August 16, 2021 12:08 AM

I want him in me, quite deeply.

by Anonymousreply 66August 16, 2021 12:11 AM

More and more angry veterans on both CBC and CTV. Trudeau's handling of the evacuation of Afghan interpreters his will become an election issue.

by Anonymousreply 67August 16, 2021 1:27 AM

R67 Just like Syria in 2015, Afghanistan has the potential of drastically changing the course of the election.

R61 Trudeau was probably the strongest speaker of the day BUT his argument of why he is calling an election probably isn't going to sell well because everyone can see through it. O'Toole looks like a deer caught in the headlines, and Singh is a terrible public speaker. This is Trudeau's election to lose and I think he might. The level of apathy in this election is probably going to be high. I mean September is going to be a bad month all around as we deal with a 4th wave and schools reopening.

by Anonymousreply 68August 16, 2021 1:32 AM

I’m a die hard liberal supporter but this election seems poorly timed. I’m not sure why the decision was made to go now rather than June/July. The opposition is pretty weak

by Anonymousreply 69August 16, 2021 1:34 AM

I wonder if calling the election will end up backfiring on the Liberals?

by Anonymousreply 70August 16, 2021 1:36 AM

If he shows his foreskin he'll get more votes.

by Anonymousreply 71August 16, 2021 1:37 AM

He should have waited till next spring. His minority government is working just fine.

by Anonymousreply 72August 16, 2021 1:38 AM

I’m concerned about the Delta variant especially with everything going into caretaker mode for an election

by Anonymousreply 73August 16, 2021 1:44 AM

I hope this turd will go away forever. Don’t let his look fool you. He’s a very very phoney racist passive aggressive sneaky cunt. He’s also not very manly

by Anonymousreply 74August 16, 2021 1:48 AM

Don’t know why they bailed out Muskrat Falls.

by Anonymousreply 75August 16, 2021 1:49 AM

R72 They are going to be elections in Ontario and Quebec next Spring so I think Liberals wanted one before then.

by Anonymousreply 76August 16, 2021 1:54 AM

Now's not the time though, R76.

If he loses, then we'll have a few years of a Con minority. In the meantime, the Liberals can get their act together. JFC. I thought the conservatives were tone deaf, but Trudeau is clearly not reading the room.

by Anonymousreply 77August 16, 2021 1:58 AM

My neighbours already put up a Conservative sign. Excuse me while I go burn down their house.

by Anonymousreply 78August 16, 2021 2:03 AM

R77 I agree the timing is terrible, but The Conservatives will only form a government if they get a majority outright. If the Cons get a minority, it's very probable the NDP (and even the Bloc) would work with the Liberals to command the confidence of the house to keep the Cons out of power.

by Anonymousreply 79August 16, 2021 2:04 AM

Now that would be interesting, R79.

by Anonymousreply 80August 16, 2021 2:06 AM

Trudeau's also not out of the woods regarding vaccine procurement. It was slow to start and now many Canadians are pissed off because they followed advice and mixed doses and therefore aren't being recognized as being "fully vaccinated" by some other countries. Trudeau better hope that this gets rectified before E day or else the opposition will be all over it.

by Anonymousreply 81August 16, 2021 2:12 AM

I'm usually okay with Trudeau but calling this needless election just as we're heading into our '4TH Wave' is very ill-timed and nothing more than the hopes of getting a majority. I really hope he just gets another minority government.

by Anonymousreply 82August 16, 2021 2:16 AM

I'd like a Liberal minority with NDP as official oppo!

by Anonymousreply 83August 16, 2021 2:18 AM

The Liberals are the only party taking action on Reconciliation

by Anonymousreply 84August 16, 2021 2:19 AM

I live in an NDP stronghold so I will be voting NDP, but I feel like this election could actually turn into an NDP vs Lib race.

by Anonymousreply 85August 16, 2021 2:22 AM

NDP and Libs will split the vote giving the Cons a majority.

by Anonymousreply 86August 16, 2021 2:42 AM

Trudeau is working hard to build a recovery that leaves no one behind

by Anonymousreply 87August 16, 2021 2:45 AM

Hahaahah....I told you so. Tonight's "At Issue" just said Afghanistan will be an election issue, and interpreters being left behind may have the same impact as the image of Alan Kurdi in 2015.

by Anonymousreply 88August 16, 2021 2:49 AM

R88 Who cares?

by Anonymousreply 89August 16, 2021 3:03 AM

Uh, you know what happened in 2015, right, R89?

by Anonymousreply 90August 16, 2021 3:05 AM

R86 Rule of thumb, Conservatives needs about 38% of the vote share to get a majority while the Liberals only need about 35%. Cons are unlikely to gain seats in Ontario because of Ford's unpopularity, and some Con seats in Quebec may go Bloc. The Cons have no path to victory. NDP vote split will make the difference between a Liberal majority or minority.

by Anonymousreply 91August 16, 2021 3:22 AM

Eric O'Toole is doubling down on not making vaccines mandatory in various sectors and for Canadian passengers. Support for mandatory vaccination in Canada is somewhere near 80%. Con base is about 30% of the electorate. They need to expand it in order to win & baring a major unexpected event, that's not going to happen. Outside of the West, the cons are struggling to maintain second place in many riding.

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by Anonymousreply 92August 16, 2021 3:30 AM

R92 Yup Cons win when they can pick up red Tory voters in Ontario, that's not going to happen this election.

by Anonymousreply 93August 16, 2021 3:33 AM

Vote Harry Windsor for Prime Minister of Canada!

by Anonymousreply 94August 16, 2021 3:55 AM

My dyslexia made me read the title of this thread “ Justin Trudeau calls erection”

by Anonymousreply 95August 16, 2021 3:59 AM

Any nudes of Justin?

by Anonymousreply 96August 16, 2021 4:39 AM

This woman would be in a conservative government

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by Anonymousreply 97August 16, 2021 4:50 AM

Guys, it's getting really, really bad now. The fire is approaching Kelowna.

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by Anonymousreply 98August 16, 2021 6:42 AM

Merritt is on evacuation alert too.

None of this will be over before September 20, no one is thinking about an election.

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by Anonymousreply 99August 16, 2021 6:44 AM

I've never heard of him.

by Anonymousreply 100August 16, 2021 6:49 AM

[quote]Cons are unlikely to gain seats in Ontario because of Ford's unpopularity, and some Con seats in Quebec may go Bloc.

I wouldn't bank on that. Outside the broad GTA and Ottawa, there are twenty seats that could potentially go either Conservative, NDP or Conservative because of a split between the Liberals and the NDP. Conservatives hold many of those seats provincially and there is a real split between urban and more rural or suburban voters. There is a lot of anger and frustration outside the urban centres, particularly with people from Toronto relocating and driving up house prices and straining services generally. I think it is optimistic to think the old rules apply or anything is unlikely. The fact is it's a volatile electorate, COVID wave four is a wild card (in the context of was this election necessary?) No outcome can be excluded. Except the Greens.

by Anonymousreply 101August 16, 2021 1:06 PM

Justin Trudeau? I don’t know her.

by Anonymousreply 102August 16, 2021 2:48 PM

R101– Erin, whatever helps you sleep at night

by Anonymousreply 103August 17, 2021 4:04 AM

Ontario is shaping up to be an NDP VS Liberal battle, Cons numbers are falling everywhere. Unless there is a dramatic shift (which is still possible) Justin has this in the bag. Question is if it will be a minority or majority.

Reminder you can vote by mail if you don't wish to risk the polling stations.

by Anonymousreply 104August 17, 2021 4:58 AM

Also advance polling from September 10 - 13, R104!!

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by Anonymousreply 105August 17, 2021 5:01 AM

I agree with NDP on most issues so will probably vote for them.

by Anonymousreply 106August 17, 2021 5:35 AM

I’d rather see a conservative government than a liberal one honestly. I’m so sick of the faux left. All the liberal party gives a damn about is bringing hundreds of thousands of immigrants in a year even when the country is in crisis. They can pander to them and play dress up and win their votes. The liberal government has done even less for me than the conservative government ever did.

by Anonymousreply 107August 17, 2021 5:38 AM

R107, if it wasn't for the Liberals there would be no gay marriage in Canada or many other gay rights. The Conservatives voted against them and tried to stop them.

by Anonymousreply 108August 17, 2021 10:29 AM

This is the year the Bloc Québécois becomes the majority!!!

by Anonymousreply 109August 17, 2021 1:22 PM

Leger poll out today. The detail shows lots of potential for volatility. Creepy how accuracy Leger called the vote in 2019.

Leger basically finds the Liberals in the lead but lots of room for trouble. They are solid as ever in the Maritimes but mushy in Ontario. NDP a strong 3rd in Ontario. 51% dissatisfied with their performance as a gov't (nationally), 50% think it's time for a change of government, 27% think Trudeau would be the best PM (9% ahead of second place NDP) but 31% chose none of the above or don't know.

So what I take away is if Erin O'Toole was better regarded, the Liberals would be in trouble. So they better hope he continues to be poorly regarded, which he probably will.

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by Anonymousreply 110August 17, 2021 1:27 PM

R110, but the Leger poll shows the Liberals ahead of the BQ in Quebec and also leading in British Columbia.

by Anonymousreply 111August 17, 2021 1:32 PM

Toronto Sun writers are working over time to blame Trudeau for what's happening in Afghanistan. Kinsella is retweeting comments about how it's somehow Trudeau's fault that is mostly men being loaded onto cargo planes and that women and children are being left behind.

Also, the 20, 000 Trudeau plans on bringing here to Canada are already out of Afghanistan, not people that need to be evacuated.

by Anonymousreply 112August 17, 2021 1:32 PM

Yes, R111.... the question is whether in the end they will produce enough seats to secure a majority. The Liberals already led the BQ by three seats, so that's promising. They trailed the CPC by 11 in BC so that's got potential. Ontario could subtract from those gains. The support is there but the loyalty isn't and it's more usual than not that support for the winner declines rather than rises. It makes for a risky campaign. Probably another minority.

by Anonymousreply 113August 17, 2021 1:40 PM

Will Doug Ford's change of mind on mandatory vaccines help Trudeau in Ontario?

by Anonymousreply 114August 17, 2021 3:27 PM

I don't see a connection, personally. Interesting story in The Star that said there's basically an agreement between Ford and Trudeau to lay off each other this campaign.

by Anonymousreply 115August 17, 2021 3:54 PM

R110 The election was always going to be tighter than expected. Parties who have a sizable lead in the polls usually find it narrowed significantly as the campaign goes on. I still predict a Liberal government, but whether that is a majority or minority, who knows. The Conservatives would have to drastically increase their share of the vote in order to get near forming government and given the disenfranchisement with Cons stemming from unpopular governments in Ontario and Alberta, probably won't happen. They would need to either sweep Ontario or perform better than expected in Ontario while picking up seats in Quebec. Still possible if Cons are being under represented in the polls as happened with the GOP south of the border.

The Liberals greatest challenge in Ontario is not the Cons but the NDP. At present, the NDP are the only party with forward momentum, their leader is the only one with an increasing approval rating and their policies are popular (e.g. the NDP are more in touch with the public mood than the cons or liberals). It will be the NDP vote that determines if Trudeau gets a minority or majority.

by Anonymousreply 116August 17, 2021 4:54 PM

Disenfranchisement? This isn't Texas. I think you mean disenchantment, don't you?

by Anonymousreply 117August 17, 2021 4:57 PM

R117 it's probably a typo, however, in Commonwealth countries "disenfranchised" means a lose of power or support, being abandoned by the public. I'm assuming that's what R116 meant.

by Anonymousreply 118August 17, 2021 5:01 PM

Turning to those two touchstones at the epicentre of Commonwealth countries, no disenfranchised does not mean loss of power or support.

Oxford:

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by Anonymousreply 119August 17, 2021 5:16 PM

Cambridge:

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by Anonymousreply 120August 17, 2021 5:16 PM

But R118, you are R116.

Jesus, the slow is strong in you.

by Anonymousreply 121August 17, 2021 5:17 PM

Girls, girls, you're both ugly!

by Anonymousreply 122August 17, 2021 5:19 PM

Fair enough, J, but simple whoops is always far better than a badly executed fraud.

by Anonymousreply 123August 17, 2021 5:20 PM

Tell me about it, R123.

by Anonymousreply 124August 17, 2021 5:21 PM

^ LOL.

by Anonymousreply 125August 17, 2021 5:23 PM

O'Toole is all over TV yesterday and today with commercials telling us what he plans to do but not giving us the actual plans.

by Anonymousreply 126August 17, 2021 5:29 PM

I accept anyone but Trudeau 💩

by Anonymousreply 127August 17, 2021 5:30 PM

If we're lucky we get a minority, so a Liberal government but he'll resign, free to devote himself full time to pilates and poetry.

by Anonymousreply 128August 17, 2021 5:31 PM

Garneau fucked up yesterday by saying that it was too early to say if Canada would recognize the Taliban. Fucking yikes. He's usually not so stupid. I wanted him to be Liberal leader back before 2015.

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by Anonymousreply 129August 17, 2021 5:33 PM

Latest polls.

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by Anonymousreply 130August 17, 2021 5:44 PM

The danger for the Liberals could be that the NDP gets more support, as people consider who and how the minority will be propped up. A strong NDP opposition would say to the Liberals tack left, if that's what the people want. I'd watch the urban centres carefully - most likely to go NDP.

by Anonymousreply 131August 17, 2021 5:48 PM

R130 Anything below 35% is minority territory.

by Anonymousreply 132August 17, 2021 7:10 PM

WTF happened in Nova Scotia?

by Anonymousreply 133August 18, 2021 2:25 AM

Conservatives won, R133.

by Anonymousreply 134August 18, 2021 2:38 AM

Iain Rankin has a huge cock

by Anonymousreply 135August 18, 2021 2:49 AM

Are we going to make predictions in this thread?

A week ago or so I thought Trudeau would get a majority, now.....I'm not sure he'll even get a minority. I don't know why, it just feels like something has changed. Hope I'm wrong. Not the biggest Trudeau fan here but I fucking hate the Cons.

by Anonymousreply 136August 18, 2021 2:56 AM

R133 The Conservatives won in an unexpected landslide. Although this should be a wake up call for people who don't want the Cons to with the federal election, provincial elections don't really predict federal ones. For example, in 2018 Ontario voted heavily for Ford, but voted overwhelming Liberal in the federal election the next year. NS Liberals were unpopular and Iain Rankin was not well liked. But if I were Trudeau I'd still be a bit nervous

R136 The mood has shifted. A fourth wave is happening coupled with people not wanting an election right now. If he had called the election in June or July he would have won easily because the public mood was far more optimistic that the pandemic was coming to an end.

by Anonymousreply 137August 18, 2021 3:06 AM

NS Cons are actually more left-leaning than Trudeau's Liberals in some regards. Don't read their win as a sign NS is going to vote Conservative in the federal election.

by Anonymousreply 138August 18, 2021 3:08 AM

I'm in Halifax and yes the election here was bizarre. The Liberals were running on a more "conservative" platform talking about balanced budgets and tax cuts, while the PCs were running on a more liberal platform of increased spending in health care and education. It felt like the parties got their poles mixed up.

by Anonymousreply 139August 18, 2021 3:12 AM

Well if O’Toole comes out and says he’s going to sent tens of billions in additional funds to the provinces for healthcare he might get a majority too

by Anonymousreply 140August 18, 2021 3:24 AM

NS PC supported mandatory vaccinations and are open to vaccine passport...O'Tools cons are not.

by Anonymousreply 141August 18, 2021 3:28 AM

O'Toole is promising a no GST December to help stimulate the economy.

Watch social programs being slashed to make up for the loss in taxes.

by Anonymousreply 142August 18, 2021 3:46 AM

R140, I doubt O'Toole will do that. He's already opposing the daycare program that Trudeau signed with the provinces.

by Anonymousreply 143August 18, 2021 10:55 AM

Twitter pulls Conservatives’ ‘Willy Wonka’ attack ad on Trudeau due to copyright

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by Anonymousreply 144August 18, 2021 10:56 AM

It was stupid to call this election now. It’s poorly timed, transparently craven and a waste of resources.

by Anonymousreply 145August 18, 2021 1:01 PM

Danny Fortin officially charged. It’s actually kinda scary that someone can drudge up allegations from over 30 years ago. There should be a statute of limitations

by Anonymousreply 146August 18, 2021 1:03 PM

OK Nova Scotia stunned me just because it was so unexpected but it proves a point I hold deeply: this is the absolute worst time to be running as an incumbent anything, from any party even just mayor (looking at the dull snob John Tory now who is so out of touch he defended a provincial cabinet minister who thought it fine to holiday in the south last December.)

Volatility. The need for a punching bag, for someone to feel your pain.

I think they are all incredibly, irrationally vulnerable, everywhere around the world. There is no predicting outcomes for next couple of years.

I predict another Liberal minority but I wouldn't bet on anybody or anything these days.

by Anonymousreply 147August 18, 2021 1:09 PM

R145 & R147, I agree that now is not the best time to have an election, either for the country, or for the Liberals themselves.

However, I don't think there was an ideal time -- if Trudeau had called it a couple of months ago it would have been too early in the vaccination timetable. And waiting a couple more months further into the 4th Wave probably wouldn't have been good either.

by Anonymousreply 148August 18, 2021 1:16 PM

Another Twenty-Thousand will arrive during the election.

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by Anonymousreply 149August 18, 2021 1:21 PM

He had two years in the mandate and if the other parties brought down the minority that was on them not the government.

They could have gone next spring... vote in April or early May to avoid the Ontario election (he was happy to step on Nova Scotia's election so that's probably less of concern.) Or he could have gone this time next summer.

This is pure opportunism and it may blow up in their faces. But no matter the timing I argue the irrationality factor transcends timing. For some inexplicable reason having governed through the pandemic may leave them more vulnerable. People want a fresh start, to put it behind them. Trudeau didn't even let the damn thing wind down. They knew the fourth wave was underway but couldn't resist sticking to their plan. This batch of Liberals have the worst sense of timing. Freeland and Carney must be happy, though.

by Anonymousreply 150August 18, 2021 1:37 PM

The fires in B.C. too, R150. People are pissed, and rightfully so. He didn't have to call the election now but did so anyway while 1000s are on evacuation order. No one feels like paying attention to a campaign and voting right now, the mood just isn't there. I suspect Trudeau will be punished and be delivered a minority at best.

by Anonymousreply 151August 18, 2021 1:48 PM

The Liberals probably wanted to shore up a majority before the economy tanks

by Anonymousreply 152August 18, 2021 1:51 PM

The worrisome thing for protecting the minority is the disenchantment is emerging so early in the campaign.

I saw a photo of Trudeau and Freeland out campaigning in the 905 yesterday. That tells you something straight away. But it pissed me off Freeland was there on the first day. She has a riding of her own. She might show it the respect of campaigning there first. Granted, it's one of the safest. Granted, she's Deputy PM and so she'll have to do some of the star power campaigning. Still, on day one, it was kind of why don't you stick close to home first.

Also interesting in this riding, so few Liberal signs. Which is really the only kind of sign you usually see in this riding. Fairly sure they were around a couple weeks ago cooking it up as Liberals were going door to door but not every door, so they were working off some kind of a target list.

by Anonymousreply 153August 18, 2021 1:52 PM

Not gonna happen now, R152.

I mark my place (for now) and say Trudeau will win a smaller minority than he has now.

Anyone else want to offer their guess?

- I reserve my right to change my prediction at any time.

by Anonymousreply 154August 18, 2021 1:54 PM

Agreed. Minority. No view on the size yet but I believe Trudeau announces his departure around Christmas, staying as leader until a new one is chosen in spring. I bet we have another election within six months either side of August 2022.

by Anonymousreply 155August 18, 2021 1:56 PM

He can call an election as long as I can sit on his erection…and tongue his hole.

by Anonymousreply 156August 18, 2021 1:58 PM

lol, O'Toole is in Quebec freaking out about corruption, the Liberals and companies like SNC Lavalin. That's not going to get him anywhere in Quebec.

by Anonymousreply 157August 18, 2021 2:12 PM

OTool is a freaking tool, like most conservatives, they’re just grifters.

by Anonymousreply 158August 18, 2021 2:34 PM

Corruption isn't the Liberals soft spot. It's arrogance. The problem is a party and the candidates attract a level of talent equal to them. Who with any brains would want to advise the Conservatives or a Doug Ford type? Middling types like them.

by Anonymousreply 159August 18, 2021 2:39 PM

Tragic

by Anonymousreply 160August 18, 2021 2:50 PM

Liberals down again today, so are the Conservatives.

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by Anonymousreply 161August 18, 2021 10:07 PM

Two days in a row the Liberal decline = the NDP gain.

by Anonymousreply 162August 18, 2021 10:23 PM

Unfortunately that's good news for the Conservatives, R162.

by Anonymousreply 163August 18, 2021 10:32 PM

It's day two... Conservatives have a unique knack for fucking things up... add up the Liberals and the NDP and you realize today's Conservatives aren't really a party that reflects Canada. They're nasty. But somehow I am watching La Toole running like a Red Tory and I'm thinking Justin, what the fuck have you done? Like I say, day two and plenty of time for them to trip up, but I am uneasy. I was going to not vote because I don't think Justin is up to the job, but I may have to.

by Anonymousreply 164August 18, 2021 10:41 PM

Only 34 more days of this.

by Anonymousreply 165August 18, 2021 11:55 PM

"Shecovery". He's trying to lose, isn't he?

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by Anonymousreply 166August 19, 2021 1:16 AM

If you're used to him it's irritating and trite, but that's our boy. If you're voting NDP this kind of appeal to women might move you. Most of the women I know are smarter than word play but maybe it will sell.

by Anonymousreply 167August 19, 2021 1:52 AM

Really good opinion here about what this eleciton should be about, but won't! As she sums it up:

"For Trudeau, the best path to victory is voter apathy. For the NDP, the hope is that the desire for ‘real’ systemic change will prevail. And the Conservatives hope the nostalgia for pre-covid life will be enough to turn the tides of their drastic decline in support."

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by Anonymousreply 168August 19, 2021 1:52 AM

Please forgive me for posting Canada Proud BS but if this was Trudeau's answer he deserves to lose the election. Abacus Polls show cost of living is the number issue for Canadians this election

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by Anonymousreply 169August 19, 2021 2:50 AM

Doesn't seem to be making headlines. Will make a good ad for the Cons. Good gotcha moment in the debate, potentially. Dumb thing to say just from a can be used against you perspective.

by Anonymousreply 170August 19, 2021 3:00 AM

Dumb.

by Anonymousreply 171August 19, 2021 3:35 AM

Ruh roh

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by Anonymousreply 172August 19, 2021 3:46 AM

The good news: "We’re at the outset of a campaign and the general sense is that Canadians are not thrilled about an election being called at this point in time,” said Clifton van der Linden, the founder and CEO of Vox Pop Labs.

“My inclination would be that there is some sort of punitive effect for the decision to call an election at this point in time, (but) that effect may not last.”

by Anonymousreply 173August 19, 2021 3:48 AM

NDP presently is the only party with forward momentum. Both the Libs and Cons are falling in support.

R173 Yeah there is totally a punitive feel in the air....this was not the time to call an election...should have happened in June, the 4th wave is going to hurt Trudeau. I also feel like this is a change election and the longer Canada's sit and think about it, the worse it will be for the Liberals. The article in R168 is right that apathy is Trudeau's only path to a third term. The problem is huge leads pre-election never hold once the campaign starts.

It's going to be a minority government regardless and Trudeau will not survive this politically.

by Anonymousreply 174August 19, 2021 4:19 AM

Mainstreet leans conservative in their polls, but worrying for Trudeau if this is true.

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by Anonymousreply 175August 19, 2021 5:23 AM

I think he's going down, which pisses me off because je made vaccines mandatory for federal workers and air travelers. O'Toole will be sure to undue the mandate.

by Anonymousreply 176August 19, 2021 1:53 PM

I think he's going down, which pisses me off because je made vaccines mandatory for federal workers and air travelers. O'Toole will be sure to undue the mandate.

by Anonymousreply 177August 19, 2021 1:53 PM

He was always in trouble because he's such an arrogant show off, but it's early yet. The Conservatives have thirty days to screw up and they will - the leader might - might - be saavy but the redneck Westerners around him will be unable to resist opening their big mouths. I'd eat my hat if this results in a Liberal majority, though.

I was on my MP's campaign website and I was appalled at how heavily they're relying on Trudeau... Team Trudeau this... blah blah blah. Fuck off, I'm electing a government not an Instagram account.

by Anonymousreply 178August 19, 2021 2:05 PM

It will hurt him that his brand is no longer new. And he sounds like a teenager.

by Anonymousreply 179August 19, 2021 2:53 PM

Ugh......O'Toole's already on it, R170.

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by Anonymousreply 180August 19, 2021 3:00 PM

^ It may depend on the full quote and the context, which I haven't seen. If it exists and media thinks it's bullshit it won't go anywhere. In fact it will probably backfire on Big Blue there, for distorting it. It's odd it's been around overnight and nothing today except this.

by Anonymousreply 181August 19, 2021 3:08 PM

Actually, listening to R180, it's an effective use of the material. I bet this one now gets legs. Stupid thing of Trudeau to say.

I have literally excluded voting Conservative for the rest of my voting life but give Big Blue credit... he doesn't come across there like a fire breathing dragon. He might be more of an adversary than I gave him credit for. If this is an indication of how he can fake his way through the debate, he might be a problem.

by Anonymousreply 182August 19, 2021 3:11 PM

He's way smarter than Scheer. Think about this, as bad as Scheer was, he still reduced Trudeau to a minority.

by Anonymousreply 183August 19, 2021 3:15 PM

In all honesty, the campaign right now is in what we call "dead space." The campaign does really become "real" to people until the final three weeks or so. I think after labour day, we'll have a better idea of where this is headed. But yeah, my feeling is Trudeau's victory is far from a sure thing.

by Anonymousreply 184August 19, 2021 5:40 PM

CBC update. Liberals have regained some ground, Cons unchanged, and NDP minor movement upward.

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by Anonymousreply 185August 19, 2021 8:53 PM

The Cons are really fucking with Justin... drug use as a health issue, blood donation by gays... and poppers! They're forcing him to react. Confounding.

Tory leader pledges support for LGBT community health on question of ‘poppers’ credit logo By Christopher ReynoldsThe Canadian Press Thu., Aug. 19, 2021timer3 min. read updateArticle was updated 20 mins ago JOIN THE CONVERSATION OTTAWA - A Conservative government would respond to the needs of Canada’s LGBT community, including on the issue of “poppers,” says Tory Leader Erin O’Toole.

The recreational drug, a muscle relaxant used largely by men who have sex with men, requires a prescription and circulates in the grey market due to its limited availability, potentially jeopardizing users’ safety.

Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner recently sent a letter asking the federal health minister to study the benefits and harms of alkyl nitrites — the official name for poppers — amid a lack of attention that the lawmaker attributes to stigmatization of LGBT health care.

At a campaign stop in Ottawa, O’Toole said Tories will advocate for LGBT community members, including through requests to Health Canada, following Rempel Garner’s inquiry aimed at potentially creating a safer supply.

“I want members of the LGBTQ community to know if they want something looked at, if they’re advocating for an issue — as Michelle has, as I have, as other members of our caucus have — we want to make sure that a federal government is responsive to the needs of all Canadians in all communities,“ O’Toole told reporters Thursday.

“We will advocate, including asking for Health Canada to examine issues of concern to the LGBT community.“

O’Toole also repeated his criticism of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s “broken promise” to end a discriminatory policy that prevents many gay and bisexual men from donating blood.

Canada introduced a lifetime ban for gay men in 1992 and in 2013 changed it so blood would be accepted from a man who abstained from sex with another man for at least five years.

The waiting period then dropped to one year, and became three months in 2019.

Trudeau has acknowledged ending the blood ban was a Liberal platform plank dating back to 2015 and that the federal government has been working toward that goal.

Recently, Canadian Blood Services said that by the end of 2021, it would recommend to Health Canada that it remove the waiting period and bring in screening for all donors based on sexual behaviour.

The Conservative platform views addiction and the opioid epidemic “as the health issue that it is.” Police should focus on traffickers and the government’s “overarching goal” should be recovery.

“The last thing that those suffering from addiction should have to worry about is being arrested,” the policy reads, pledging to revise Ottawa’s substance abuse policy framework.

Garth Mullins, a representative of the Vancouver Area Network of Drug Users (VANDU), an advocacy group, says the approach marks an improvement from former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper’s tough-on-crime stance.

“They’re saying some of the right words in that policy.”

Nonetheless, a focus on recovery and abstinence is “misplaced” as it misidentifies the crux of the crisis, Mullins said.

“For them, the problem is that people use drugs; for me, the problem is that people die. And the more you try to police drug users or the drug supply, the more contaminated the drug supply gets,” he said.

“Recovery is a lovely idea, but we need triage right now.”

Health Canada is currently working with Vancouver on the city’s request for exemption from criminal provisions on simple possession of small amounts of drugs.

Vancouver has been the epicentre of an opioid crisis that saw B.C. record 1,176 illicit drug overdose deaths in 2020 — the highest ever in a single year — and more than 7,000 deaths since a public health emergency was declared in April 2016.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 19, 2021.

by Anonymousreply 186August 19, 2021 10:05 PM

....

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by Anonymousreply 187August 20, 2021 1:16 AM

It's hilarious that the Cons have made poppers an issue 😅🤣

by Anonymousreply 188August 20, 2021 3:59 AM

Have poppers ever been a campaign issue? It's like your dad trying to be cool and having no fucking clue what he's talking about.

I'd still never vote for them and don't trust them as far as I could throw them, but I will admit they've made me laugh.

by Anonymousreply 189August 20, 2021 4:18 AM

This is reallyalmost worth its own thread.

[Quote] "The only person who is going to be responsible for the murder, merciless murder of the interpreters in Afghanistan, that will be only -- and only -- the leader of this country and that's going to be Justin Trudeau."

So, I guess the Taliban have no role to play in this mess?

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by Anonymousreply 190August 20, 2021 9:01 AM

R183, Scheer didn't reduce Trudeau to a minority by himself. The rise of the BQ in Quebec during the 2019 Election was also a factor that affected the Liberal seat total.

by Anonymousreply 191August 20, 2021 10:20 AM

Liberals down a bit, Cons and NDP up.

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by Anonymousreply 192August 20, 2021 7:15 PM

The numbers seem to have settled (for now) with the Lib around 34% Cons at 29% and NDP at 19%. That would set the stage for another Liberal minority. It'll come down to the leaders debate.

by Anonymousreply 193August 20, 2021 7:58 PM

The biggest threat to the Liberals are not the conservatives but the NDP. Singh, though he has been not as extensively covered, I think is more in touch with the public mood than Trudeau or O'Toole. You can see the worry in Liberal social media where their supporters have been going against the NDP way harder than the Cons.

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by Anonymousreply 194August 21, 2021 12:45 AM

All newspaper columnists have been UNANIMOUS

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole has won the week

by Anonymousreply 195August 21, 2021 12:48 AM

[quote] It'll come down to the leaders debate.

I don't think the debates will change a single thing. The fact is no one is paying attention to this election, and won't pay attention to it until after Labour Day

by Anonymousreply 196August 21, 2021 12:49 AM

When is the leader's debate?

I live in Chrystia Freeland's riding. Usually pretty strong for her. I've seen three signs walking the dog and I walk a loooooooong way, twice day.

by Anonymousreply 197August 21, 2021 12:51 AM

I want Trudeau to win solely because of his vaccine mandate for federal employees. Can't wait to say bye to a few anti-vaxxers at my workplace. O'Toole will undo it so Trudeau needs to win at least a minority.

September 9, R197.

by Anonymousreply 198August 21, 2021 12:52 AM

[quote] Usually pretty strong for her. I've seen three signs walking the dog and I walk a loooooooong way, twice day.

any incumbent should take nothing for granted and run as if they are ten points behind

by Anonymousreply 199August 21, 2021 12:53 AM

National polls are meaningless - it is the seat count that matters - Trudeau is still polling higher than in 2019 when he was 11 seats short of a majority

The Conservatives are below their 30% and can't seem to break that number of 30%

by Anonymousreply 200August 21, 2021 12:54 AM

Rick Hiller was all over Power and Politics tonight slamming the feds and the situation in Afghanistan.

I agree that we have to get the people that helped the Canadian military out, but I just found out that they had the opportunity to leave years ago, but many chose not to. Why is it our fault that some who chose to stay may never get out?

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by Anonymousreply 201August 21, 2021 1:00 AM

R195 Links..........I have seen one positive story about O'Toole and that was in the National Post.

by Anonymousreply 202August 21, 2021 1:01 AM

[quote] I have seen one positive story about O'Toole and that was in the National Post.

National Post had two (from Michael Taube & John Ivison)

Globe & Mail had one from John Ibbitson & Robyn Urback - with one tweet from Globe & Mail Lawrence Martin (Martin saying O'Toole won the week)

The Toronto Sun Brian Lilley & Warren Kinsella

Jen Gerson (formerly of National Post) with her own "newspaper"

Diane Francis of the Financial Post

Is that enough for you?

by Anonymousreply 203August 21, 2021 1:06 AM

R196 the Leaders debate IS after Labour Day. Despite what you hear on the news, this is not a horse race (yet). The numbers have not changed more than 0.5% all week. The Liberals took dip right after the election was called, likely because people are pissed that we're having a needless election in the midst of a fourth wave of COVID.

R203 You don't say....the National Post, The Financial Post, the Toronto Sun and Globe & Mail are all right-leaning papers.

by Anonymousreply 204August 21, 2021 1:10 AM

I hope Trudeau is prepping for the debate. I can't stand O'Toole, but he's not a dummy like Scheer.

by Anonymousreply 205August 21, 2021 1:13 AM

R203 Conservative papers supporting the conservative party? Shocking I tell you. Robyn Urback was ready to give Scheer a blow job during the 2019 election and Warren Kinsella is a Trumpist, John Ivison is a mygonistic homophobe. Shall we go on.

by Anonymousreply 206August 21, 2021 1:14 AM

R205 I agree that the Leaders debate is make or break for Trudeau. The Cons can still win this and we shouldn't count them out.

A couple things to keep in mind:

Cons numbers are probably under reported. In 2019 Conservatives over performed compared to polls and narrowly won the popular vote.

People aren't that happy with Trudeau.

Ontario is shaping into a three way raise which could benefit the conservatives.

by Anonymousreply 207August 21, 2021 1:20 AM

[quote] Conservative papers supporting the conservative party?

Well I did say "All newspaper columnists have been UNANIMOUS"

and the majority of the newspapers in Canada are Conservative. Even the Toronto Star has been bought out a Conservative Consortium, - ironic because Trudeau gave them a media bail-out - and the Conservatives accused Trudeau of buying off the media

[quote] I can't stand O'Toole, but he's not a dummy like Scheer.

O'Toole negatives are so high, the more Canadians see him, they dislike him. So O'Toole beating up Justin Trudeau in a debate is only going be appreciated by Trudeau haters.

by Anonymousreply 208August 21, 2021 1:21 AM

[quote] Cons numbers are probably under reported. In 2019 Conservatives over performed compared to polls and narrowly won the popular vote.

The Con numbers were not under reported in 2019 - they were OVER reported. So much so the Conservatives were setting up a transition team 2 weeks before voting day

The Con numbers are inflated because they are not efficient. The Liberals have a much efficient vote than the Conservatives.

by Anonymousreply 209August 21, 2021 1:23 AM

What I meant, R208, is that Trudeau better not stumble and say something stupid to give the Cons ammo, like he did with the whole, "I don't think about the economy" shit. He'd better be prepping for this. He's going to have to fend off Singh too, and he is popular right now.

by Anonymousreply 210August 21, 2021 1:24 AM

[quote] People aren't that happy with Trudeau.

I don't where you get that because in poll after poll after poll, Trudeau popularity numbers and PM numbers are much higher than in 2019 and are consistently higher than Erin O'Toole

The only pollster to have anyone beat Justin Trudeau in personal popularity (Jagmeet Singh) is Angus Reid and they are a notorious right-wing pollster.

In both the 2015 & 2019 election, Angus Reid polling said that the Conservative would win those elections.

by Anonymousreply 211August 21, 2021 1:27 AM

[quote] He's going to have to fend off Singh too, and he is popular right now.

Pollsters say that Jagmeet Singh popularity is hard to translate into seats.

That said the Liberals & Trudeau need to run as if they are ten points behind.

by Anonymousreply 212August 21, 2021 1:29 AM

I'd like to see Jagmeet Singh and Kamala together.

by Anonymousreply 213August 21, 2021 1:41 AM

Updated

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by Anonymousreply 214August 21, 2021 1:59 AM

Won’t somebody think of the poppers!

by Anonymousreply 215August 21, 2021 2:14 AM

This paragraph from Toronto Star on the election really worries me

"The Liberal campaign has appeared unready for the first week, with its platform still in development, its headquarters team members still being shuffled and handed cellphones, and no campaign song to set the mood or theme of Trudeau’s third bid for power."

You would think that the Liberals (who controlled when an election would be called) would be completed staffed and ready on Day One

The fact they are not, is an ominous sign - so If Trudeau doesn't get a majority, he only has himself to blame.

by Anonymousreply 216August 21, 2021 3:05 AM

The fact that they're not ready isn't a good sign since they're the ones that called this ill-timed election, R216.

by Anonymousreply 217August 21, 2021 3:25 AM

R216: they've honestly been off on timing since the start of the pandemic. Dicked around on closing the borders and managing flights into the country. Dicked around on vaccines, messing in failed fancies with China and then paying through the nose to catch up, dicked around with opening the border and then moved before the U.S., who didn't move and in the process they surrendered any negotiating power we might have had on the question. They have been terrible with timing. I don't know who or why, but seems to be the same problem with election readiness. The Liberals get arrogant and sloppy. It is their Achilles heel. It seems we're here again...

by Anonymousreply 218August 21, 2021 4:37 AM

Singh also created a narrative today... the common man, about to become a father for the first time, who says "I am not Justin Trudeau." And suddenly Justin looks quite tangential, spoiled and rich. This is could go from bad to worse. There are low odds Trudeau will still be PM a year from now, as I see it.

by Anonymousreply 219August 21, 2021 4:39 AM

Only Sing was a rich kid too, R219, so he's kind of full of it on this one, but yeah, I think Trudeau's in his last days as PM.

by Anonymousreply 220August 21, 2021 4:52 AM

The only way Trudeau survives this politically is if he gets a majority. If he gets another minority, he won't be around much longer.

by Anonymousreply 221August 21, 2021 5:04 AM

Who's the next Liberal leader?

I'm going to say either Champagne or Anand. I don't think it'll be Freeland.

by Anonymousreply 222August 21, 2021 5:22 AM

Carney.

by Anonymousreply 223August 21, 2021 5:23 AM

Where do you get the idea Singh was a child of privilege? His father was alcoholic and abusive.

by Anonymousreply 224August 21, 2021 5:26 AM

He grew up rich and went to an American boarding school, R224. He's hardly some working class hero.

by Anonymousreply 225August 21, 2021 5:33 AM

His father was a psychiatrist and the school was a private school in Michigan.

by Anonymousreply 226August 21, 2021 5:52 AM

R222 Freeland will run for the leadership but she won't win.

by Anonymousreply 227August 21, 2021 7:00 AM

R197, R198, R204, the first debate is the French debate on TVA.

The following week there is one more debate in French and one in English.

by Anonymousreply 228August 21, 2021 11:33 AM

The French debate on TVA is on September 2.

by Anonymousreply 229August 21, 2021 11:33 AM

Eric Grenier says the Liberals have some work to do.

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by Anonymousreply 230August 21, 2021 4:36 PM

Even EKOS says the winds have shifted.

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by Anonymousreply 231August 21, 2021 4:38 PM

Everyone is saying Justin Trudeau is going to lose this election

by Anonymousreply 232August 21, 2021 5:33 PM

I guess I should come to peace that Justin Trudeau will lose

All of the Trudeau haters out there will be over the moon

I just wanted Trudeau to leave on his own terms and not be voted out

But I guess we can't always get what we want - but I hope Trudeau finds peace in whatever he decides to do next

by Anonymousreply 233August 21, 2021 5:36 PM

Why would you care that much about him personally?

by Anonymousreply 234August 21, 2021 5:37 PM

If the Conservatives actually do do well in Ontario - BIG IF - it's bad news for Doug Ford. Typically, though not exclusively, the province seems to like one party in Ottawa and a different one at Queen's Park.

by Anonymousreply 235August 21, 2021 5:39 PM

Sad, last days.

by Anonymousreply 236August 21, 2021 7:17 PM

He looks like my Hungarian auntie in the photo at OP.

No thank you.

by Anonymousreply 237August 21, 2021 7:21 PM

R231 Ekos polls now have Libs and Cons in statistical tie, but Libs still out ahead in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic provinces. Frank Graves is a bloated hack. He predicted a conservative majority in 2015 (then deleted those tweets) and a Liberal majority in 2019 (he deleted those tweets too). The main concern for the Libs right now is the NDP gains in Ontario.

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by Anonymousreply 238August 21, 2021 7:31 PM

Always dismiss on a partisan basis results that frighten you, particularly in this era of polling triumphs.

It's all are valuable or non are now.

But Trudeau resigning... be still my nausea! And it will be, if he slinks off to full time poetry and pilates! It really will be!

by Anonymousreply 239August 21, 2021 7:51 PM

The Liberals need to clean house if Trudeau gets anything but a majority (which he won't). Not only does Trudeau need to step down, but so do party brass and people in the PMO like Telford. Who let Trudeau call this election now? What a bunch of idiots. They let him get what he wanted without telling him that this is a fucking terrible time for an election. It's not the Trudeau party, it's the Liberal part. Someone should have told him "no." But now, it may very well be the Canadian public saying it instead of party brass. This is exactly how Liberal arrogance comes back to bite them in the ass.

I'm already trying to get used to PM O'Toole. Fucking yuck, and that's thanks to Trudeau.

by Anonymousreply 240August 21, 2021 7:56 PM

I would be delighted to see Trudeau go - he is in over his head and annoying as fuck - but I still think it is a long, long stretch to Prime Minister O'Toole. The rest of the country sees what you get from the Fords and the Kenneys in government. Plus, even if O'Toole manages to be a solid performer, one of his red necks will inevitably remind everybody what the Conservatives have become now the West has taken over. So I would guess the most likely outcome will be a Liberal minority... but after leading to two in a row, Trudeau will have to step down and go away, which will be win-win-win: country, party, and even Trudeau. He'll be much happier being fabulous and caring in some role that lets him jet around and holiday as he likes. It was a bad and clueless call to go now, but that's often the party under Justin. They haven't even finished their platform. It's bizarre they aren't running the perfect campaign.

by Anonymousreply 241August 21, 2021 8:02 PM

It's clear people are pissed with Trudeau for calling a needless election, the question is will that anger hold.

Cons "surge" may be happening too early. Typically the second place party wants to start surging about three weeks before election. At the moment, the Liberals still have the city advantage in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic.

Here's another thing to remember about our system: if Cons win more seats but Libs and NDP together have more seats, Trudeau as the sitting PM still has first right to try and form a working government with the NDP.

by Anonymousreply 242August 21, 2021 8:03 PM

*sorry seat not city advantage

by Anonymousreply 243August 21, 2021 8:04 PM

I think (at least I'm hoping) right now the CONS gains (which are mostly in the west) are more to do with temporary anger at Trudeau for calling this election than an actual swing towards the right. I mean the CPC are bascally against all popular opinions re: vaccination, COVID supports, cost of living, and LGBTQ+ rights. O'Toole just said he's against outlawing conversion therapy.

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by Anonymousreply 244August 21, 2021 8:08 PM

That is true, R242, but after one minority the NDP is going to demand some kind of coalition--- seats in cabinet, the whole enchilada. It would be difficult for Trudeau to argue legitimacy if he commands the second largest number of seats. Yes, he can do it, but does it pass the smell test? And that's part of calculation too. It's possible but I can't see Trudeau staying on to fight another election after that. And selling it in the Liberal party would be quite difficult. Parties generally don't like to legitimize other parties. But you are absolutely right, he could cobble something together. Bit tricky, though, if second and third form a government.

I agree... if this is a surge it is earlier than any party would like.

by Anonymousreply 245August 21, 2021 8:09 PM

Re R244... there he is, starting to look weasily on the social conservative questions... they can't pull it off. They are who they are. Liberal minority.

by Anonymousreply 246August 21, 2021 8:09 PM

338 is my go to because it gives a riding by riding breakdown, this is good if you're looking to strategically vote.

I am not a big fan of Trudeau but I'd rather him than the cons.

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by Anonymousreply 247August 21, 2021 8:18 PM

If this is true, it's game over for Trudeau as Cons have taken the lead in Ontario!!

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by Anonymousreply 248August 21, 2021 10:38 PM

Hate to say it, but I think the Cons have this . Who every is advising them is on the money with what the number issue is right now in Canada, the cost of living.

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by Anonymousreply 249August 21, 2021 10:44 PM

Gross.

Who thinks O'Toole will be as bad as Harper?

by Anonymousreply 250August 21, 2021 10:53 PM

Shit.

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by Anonymousreply 251August 21, 2021 11:05 PM

It's clear that voters are pissed with Trudeau for calling this election now and this is coupled with the fact that his campaign seems to be about nothing! I don't want the cons to win but i will not cry for Trudeau if his hubris costs him the election.

by Anonymousreply 252August 21, 2021 11:19 PM

Not just for calling it. I know DL loves his ass but the truth is he's a smug little do nothing... all optics... his optimism worked in his first campaign but after that he fell flat. He is too precious for dull old Canada. It's not on brand. His father was wildly off brand in many ways but damn that man had some ideas... and got them done.

by Anonymousreply 253August 21, 2021 11:39 PM

This is horrific if it's true ... I know Coyne leans right so I'll take it with a grain of salt. But how can the Libs be this unprepared for an election they knew they were going to call for months.

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by Anonymousreply 254August 21, 2021 11:41 PM

One more thing... it is far, far too early to call. If a Con lead is building, it could evaporate too. Though I still hold Singh is going to capture some imagination and that harms Trudeau in a couple of ways.

But, I think it is legitimate that many people have a range of negative reactions to this call now. And if Delta starts to sweep the schools in September as expected... he's fucked.

It is generally not considered a great strategy to create Concerned Out For Blood Because My Baby's in ICU Team Mom.

by Anonymousreply 255August 21, 2021 11:43 PM

Shiiit.

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by Anonymousreply 256August 22, 2021 3:01 AM

R256 This tweet has been taken down...what did it say?

by Anonymousreply 257August 22, 2021 3:08 AM

That momentum is moving away from the Liberals and NDP, Cons have gained, so have Greens, R257.

by Anonymousreply 258August 22, 2021 3:11 AM

There are so many people on this thread who just DESPISE Justin Trudeau

Where are those DL posters who say the HATE against Justin Trudeau is a myth?

by Anonymousreply 259August 22, 2021 3:12 AM

Here, R257.

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by Anonymousreply 260August 22, 2021 3:15 AM

btw was watching Power & Politics on CBC on tape delay - and one of the strategists (well he is a Red Tory) said Trudeau handling of the pandemic means NOTHING To Canadian Voters - they don't care if he did a good job or not

What matters to voters is how Canada will move forward - voters have NO interest in what Trudeau did in the last 18 months. That is history

In terms of the poll at R260 - there are other polls that have more credibility than Ekos - that still has the Liberals leading in Ontario

and even IF the Conservative have taken the lead in Ontario, we need to see a breakdown in the 905 and 416. In terms of those seats, the Liberals are still going to sweep that area, with the exception of a few Downtown ridings that might flip to the NDP.

by Anonymousreply 261August 22, 2021 3:19 AM

btw in terms of that Ekos Poll - the guy that runs it still says Trudeau will win, despite the Ontario surge

But by all means everyone, get used to PM Erin O'Toole

by Anonymousreply 262August 22, 2021 3:21 AM

I think things like inflation are a bigger issue with voters than Trudeau suspects.

I saw that too, R261.

by Anonymousreply 263August 22, 2021 3:21 AM

If Trudeau wins a minority - he is gone. He will govern for a year and then step down. So all you Trudeau haters can do a high-five

If he loses prepare yourself for PM Erin O'Toole

But either way Trudeau is gone - so all you Trudeau Haters - Happy?

by Anonymousreply 264August 22, 2021 3:24 AM

Bottom line - Erin O'Toole cannot win this election (even a minority) without winning the 416 & 905.

Right now that is not happening - and probably won't happen because of Doug Ford.

He can't even win seats in Quebec - so an out right majority for O'Toole is not even in the cards

by Anonymousreply 265August 22, 2021 3:27 AM

R264, relax. No one's gonna be PM forever, not even Trudeau. If he loses, the Liberals will bounce back. He didn't use any common sense by calling the election now and if he's punished, that's his fault. Imagine, losing an election that did not need to be called. He should have rode things out till his government failed a confidence motion, but no.

I wanted him to win because of the vaccine mandate. If he loses, I'll have to deal with anti-vax co-workers.

I still think he could eek out a minority though. That would be okay since then he'd be PM for awhile and have a proper transition to a new leader.

by Anonymousreply 266August 22, 2021 3:30 AM

Exactly R266 - even an updated 338Canda (adding all the shifting polls) have the Liberals at 90% chance of winning the most seats

Conservatives are at 10% chance of winning the most seats

Anything is possible, but I don't think the numbers can flip that dramatically in 30 days

and I recall an Angus Reid poll recently that said if NDP, Bloc & Green voters see the Conservatives in First, or too close to the Liberals in a poll, they would switch their vote to the Liberals in a second

Before the writ was dropped all the talk was about voter apathy, the feeling that of Trudeau is seen to win this in a walk, that would be worse because people might stay home and not vote, or vote NDP if they thought Liberals had an easy win - which would mean a Conservative win

But now that the media has manufactured this as a "horse race" (to create excitement) the more it might seem a Conservative win, the more those soft NDP, Green & Bloc voters will move back to the Liberals.

Even without pushing strategic voting right now, the Liberals are still on track to win the most seats.

by Anonymousreply 267August 22, 2021 3:40 AM

I am definitely one of so many people on this thread who just DESPISE Justin Trudeau but I want a Liberal government. Just not with that prima donna at the helm. I do not believe the Conservatives will form government in any scenario... the findings of late are minor blips... still within the margin of error or perilously close to it. Canadians aren't stampeding to the exits. But it may take strategic voting... because some the NDP and the Liberals could allow a Conservative (there are no Tories left) to come up the middle. It was a dangerous time to call an election and they were fools to have done it. There is a risk the timing disapproval could harm them. Plus it is inexcusable they pulled the plug without a clear platform in place. One of the enduring memes is Liberal arrogance. Who the hell has the power to call an election but doesn't have their platform ready? These people make it hard for themselves. Even their campaign websites are as much Team Trudeau vs. Liberal Party of Canada. We'll have to see what happens but they make it harder for themselves. I really look forward to that show off leaving public life and we can have normal, dull elected leaders again. God, I miss Jean Chretien (who was never dull, to be honest.)

by Anonymousreply 268August 22, 2021 3:41 AM

R268 the best scenario for you is a minority government - then Trudeau will only be around for a year, and then hand the reins over to someone else

and it is looking likely it will be a minority government, so you should be happy!

by Anonymousreply 269August 22, 2021 3:44 AM

I am. I hope so.

by Anonymousreply 270August 22, 2021 3:45 AM

That's just it, R268 - that Liberal arrogance. Trudeau is his own worst enemy much of the time. I am not a hater of his and I've said this before that some of the hate directed at him is unfair and unhinged. That being said, there is fair criticism that he's earned. Calling this election now was plain stupid. WTF was he thinking? The whole party brass and PMO need to gtfo too. If anything needs a reset it's the Liberal Party. Time for fresh blood.

by Anonymousreply 271August 22, 2021 3:46 AM

[quote] I am. I hope so.

O'Toole needs the 416 & 905 to eke out even a minority government. and with Doug Ford as Premier, that is not going to happen.

by Anonymousreply 272August 22, 2021 3:47 AM

The story is the PMO got too insular (not for the first time, I think it is a common mistake.) But if you've got nothing but Justin and a gang in a bubble, you get a dumb election call without readiness. And it is a tricky thing to ask to lead the country while running a sloppy, ill-planned, unwanted campaign.

by Anonymousreply 273August 22, 2021 3:48 AM

[quote] If anything needs a reset it's the Liberal Party. Time for fresh blood.

Again if we get a Liberal minority, he will be gone in a year., So it is not too bad that he called an election now, because he will be out of the quicker, which is what you want.

by Anonymousreply 274August 22, 2021 3:50 AM

R272, I am I am. 416 isn't going anywhere, although a seat or two downtown could shift to the NDP, which won't be helpful, but the Cons aren't going anywhere. 905 I'm less confident, but if a few seats go Con it won't be landslide or anything of that order. COVID is about to get worse and Doug Ford's performance has been crap since about June 2020. COVID will worsen, schools will start spreading, and Doug will still be dicking around on vaccine passports, which will hurt the Conservatives because if you can't trust some, can you trust any.

I also think there is a risk that if Delta goes hard in school rooms quickly (which it could, given transmissibility) Trudeau and the Liberals could pay a price for the call... and close to the end of the campaign, which is not when you want people pissed off at you. Both Singh and O'Toole will hammer him for sending us to the polls when kids are getting sick and cases are rising again.

I do think it is too bad he called it now, as much as I would like to never hear about him again. This is bad for the country. The timing is terrible. This is so unnecessary. So opportunistic. Poor leadership. All about him.

by Anonymousreply 275August 22, 2021 3:53 AM

Justin, if you are reading this you'd better come up with a plan to address inflation/cost of living.

Makes sense, R273, I know someone who knows JT and she's said that his problem is that he sometimes labours under the delusion that everyone thinks like him. "Sunny ways" has worn off and now he has to figure out what his platform is.

R274, everything was working fine before he called this election. No one wants the Cons in, and he's gone and put the country at risk. He could have finished the mandate or waited till his government lost confidence. Stupid, stupid timing and all because of arrogance.

The ONLY positive thing I can think of if Delta cases get bad, r275, is that Trudeau could hammer away at mandated vaccines. Most Canadians support that, more and more businesses and institutions are implementing mandates of their own...so....Trudeau could be all like, "look....the Cons would do away with the mandate for federal workers and travelers on planes etc...." You have to elect me so that the vaccine mandates stay.

by Anonymousreply 276August 22, 2021 3:57 AM

One thing that separates the Liberals from everyone else is how much they rely on data, and how much of it they have

They don't rely on polls, but raw data. Every riding they know exactly how many votes they need to win it. So they identify and keep track of all of their supporters in all ridings they hold (or used to hold) and get new voters to add to their list of supporters and get them to the polls

Liberals have a superior ground game and get out the vote machine, using techniques from the Obama and Biden campaign

They are really head and shoulders above all other parties in their election machinery, polling and analytical data. So much so that in 2019 Trudeau knew a week ahead of voting day he would win,.

by Anonymousreply 277August 22, 2021 4:00 AM

^ Maybe. Not a bad idea. But the counter from Singh is "we would have happily supported that in parliament, Justin, but you wanted an election..."

by Anonymousreply 278August 22, 2021 4:00 AM

[quote] Trudeau could be all like, "look....the Cons would do away with the mandate for federal workers and travelers on planes etc...." You have to elect me so that the vaccine mandates stay.

That is the Liberal plan

by Anonymousreply 279August 22, 2021 4:02 AM

So much so that in 2019 Trudeau knew a week ahead of voting day he would win... a minority.

In Parliamentary politics, that's a very narrow definition of winning.

by Anonymousreply 280August 22, 2021 4:02 AM

What happens if O'Toole flip flops?

by Anonymousreply 281August 22, 2021 4:03 AM

[quote] But the counter from Singh is "we would have happily supported that in parliament, Justin, but you wanted an election..."

Then Trudeau would counter "Then why were you so gung-ho to campaign in the BC snap election?"

[quote] In Parliamentary politics, that's a very narrow definition of winning.

a win is a win - and back then Conservatives & Scheer were planning a transition team, convinced they were going to win

by Anonymousreply 282August 22, 2021 4:04 AM

That argument doesn't work. What's he supposed to do, not campaign in protest? That's ridiculous.

by Anonymousreply 283August 22, 2021 4:05 AM

I don't know if this means anything, but he's got several tweets from the last few days getting from only a few hundred to low 1000s likes.

That's the problem, R278, but here we are, so he could desperately remind Canadians that he's made vaccines mandatory and the Cons won't. It fucking sucks and it's a stupid position he's put himself in.

If O'Toole flip flops on the vaccine issue that'd be trouble for Trudeau, R281. O'Toole might lose part of his base, but he could pick up some soft Liberal votes.

Just playing Devil's advocate here, R282, but Singh could say that a provincial election isn't near the scale of a federal one and doesn't require much travel and so on.

by Anonymousreply 284August 22, 2021 4:06 AM

[quote] That argument doesn't work. What's he supposed to do, not campaign in protest? That's ridiculous.

Jagmeet even shot videos during the BC snap election saying how SAFE it is to vote. Everything he criticized Justin Trudeau on in calling an early election, the BC Green Party said the same about the NDP Premier calling an early election.

Singh should have stayed out of that election, but there are too many videos and personal appearances he made, extolling the virtues of a "snap" election in BC

by Anonymousreply 285August 22, 2021 4:10 AM

Jagmeet’s flip-flop: A pandemic election was just fine last year

So he can't have it both ways

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by Anonymousreply 286August 22, 2021 4:11 AM

[quote] O'Toole might lose part of his base, but he could pick up some soft Liberal votes.

He has already lost parts of his base due to the Carbon Tax, if he flip-flops he'd lose even more as the Conservative base is 100% against mandatory Vaccinations.

by Anonymousreply 287August 22, 2021 4:15 AM

Last year. A lifetime ago in COVID time. We weren't in a wave. Trudeau called this after Tam said we're in the fourth wave. Apples and orange. Case counts. COVID has a way of mucking things up.

by Anonymousreply 288August 22, 2021 4:16 AM

In addition to what, R288 said, R286, there were no raging fires at the time.

by Anonymousreply 289August 22, 2021 4:32 AM

Trudeau has been a lackluster Prime Minister there is no arguing against that. All the major reforms he promised back in 2015 (e.g. electoral reform, affordable daycare, affordable housing, pharma care etc.) haven't been implemented. The truth is that life in Canada has not improved since the Harper era and despite claiming he'd help rebuild the middle class, the middle class continues to shrink. Trudeau is the hot guy who promises a night of unbridled passion but when you get him naked he's only 2 inches...erect.

That being said, he did step up during the first year of the pandemic. My husband was laid off for four months in 2020 and if it hadn't been for CERB we would have been in serious trouble. On principle alone, I cannot abide the idea of a conservative government.

Trudeau won a weakened mandate in 2019 largely because of Andrew Scheer. He doesn't have that advantage this time. While O'Toole is not particularly charismatic, he doesn't have the same Harper-Lite ultraconservative vibe Scheer had. O'Toole has managed (to some degree) to outflank Trudeau on the social issues the Liberals usually attack the conservatives on: abortion, gay rights etc. It might be enough to flip red tories. The liberal game has to focus on Ontario and Quebec. Forget about Alberta and the west, anything they might get there is just a welcomed bonus at this point.

The Liberals have always been an overly arrogant party. They have long labelled themselves as Canada's natural governing party. Trudeau brought the party back from third place in 2015 (and I'll admit I was tickled when he beat Harper) but he's bought into his own "greatness." The polish has faded on him and he's not the "reincarnation" of his father that many had hoped. He is dead politically even if the Liberals eek out another minority. If the Liberals win, it will because Canadians decided a change in government is not needed right now rather than out of a love for Trudeau.

by Anonymousreply 290August 22, 2021 4:56 AM

R267 makes a good point. Although the Liberals are off to a bad start, the fact that the polls are close gives Liberal supporters a wake-up call in time to change course and it may also help motivate NDP supporters to vote Liberal if they think the Cons will win.

R277 is correct that the Liberals do have good internal pollsters. In 2019 they accurately predicted to journalists on Election Day that they would win "A Buck And A Half" -- (eg. 150 seats. ) And they won 157. So we'll see what happens in 2021.

by Anonymousreply 291August 22, 2021 12:40 PM

Do most people appreciate the threat of the Liberal/NDP vote split? It always seems like something that manifests at the last minute, if it does, based on modelling (which to be convincing would be last minute too.) I'd forgotten how much Trudeau failed to deliver on. More left leaning Liberals and NDP voters have no compelling reason to support the party based on what they are offering this time because their track record is evident. I am struck by how few Liberal signs I see in my neighbourhood and around it. (Toronto, the Liberals ass saver.) It is strange because usually it isn't overwhelming but very visible. This isn't like before.

by Anonymousreply 292August 22, 2021 1:41 PM

I'm just gonna say - let the accusations begin - O'Toole has surprised me. He is coming across as reasonable and his focus is on bread and butter issues. I think he's had a good week. Seeming reasonable - considering the reservations about the party - is a dangerous thing if you don't want a Conservative government (and I don't - I cannot foresee voting Conservative in my lifetime. I just don't trust, or like, the red necks.) I keep saying there's lots of time for one of the red neck candidates to screw things up and expose them for what they really are and the media will be on O'Toole relentlessly to trip him up, so it is hard to imagine whatever modest shine he has at this point lasting until election day. It was a surprising week for all the parties, in my view, but the only thing that's changed is a now settled narrative this won't be a cakewalk for Justin. I don't see the numbers or the outcome have particularly changed. A Liberal majority is still possible, a minority is most likely. There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm about anything.

by Anonymousreply 293August 22, 2021 1:48 PM

Jagmeet Singh is not a good public speaker.

by Anonymousreply 294August 22, 2021 2:46 PM

Nice arms, though, for a politician.

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by Anonymousreply 295August 22, 2021 2:58 PM

I still think that the Bloc leader would throw a dirty fuck.

by Anonymousreply 296August 22, 2021 3:00 PM

The CPC faithful are really coming out of the woodwork in this tread. Who knew Datalounge held such sway with Canadian elections?

by Anonymousreply 297August 22, 2021 3:02 PM

and if people defend Jagmeet Singh camp gaining and fully BC Pandemic election saying "it is not the same"

Yes, it was not the same - campaigning in the BC pandemic election was WORSE. Because last year we had NO vaccines and no one was vaccinated. Wheras this election, 70% of the country is fully vaccinated.

by Anonymousreply 298August 22, 2021 5:00 PM

Well, R298, the Liberals are bleeding in BC now because of the fires. So what do you have to say to that?

by Anonymousreply 299August 22, 2021 5:07 PM

Right, that was way worse than knowingly calling an election during a fourth wave confirmed by your Chief Medical Officer of health, with a virus at least as twice as contagious as year ago.

You have a rather biased sense of worse, Liberal voter. Or is it just sad fangurl?

by Anonymousreply 300August 22, 2021 5:29 PM

R294 Singh often sounds like he's on a high school debate team.

R293 O'Toole really had no where to go but up. I don't like sounding conspiratorial, but I swear the right-leaning media in Canada always makes incumbent conservative leaders look like idiots so that when an election happens, expectations are so low that if the leader doesn't end up shitting himself on stage, he's a "surprising success"

The Liberals appear to be switching tactics and going on the offence with this clip of O'Toole saying he would privatize parts of the health care system....this view was from last July as the second wave was beginning. Hope this clip gets wide play because as much as we criticize Trudeau, never turn your back on a conservative.

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by Anonymousreply 301August 22, 2021 5:43 PM

This is from the CEO of Mainstreet Research (which has a major conservative lean) but would suggest Liberal numbers are back up that they poll better on weekends when pollsters can typically reach more people.

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by Anonymousreply 302August 22, 2021 5:45 PM

Yeesh, O'Toole's on right now talking about "compassion" for addicts.

by Anonymousreply 303August 22, 2021 6:14 PM

[quote] This is from the CEO of Mainstreet Research (which has a major conservative lean) but would suggest Liberal numbers are back up that they poll better on weekends when pollsters can typically reach more people.

Mainstreet CEO just sent out a tweet saying that most people are at the cottage and therefor not responding to the poll, We will not know true pure numbers until after Labour Day

by Anonymousreply 304August 22, 2021 9:18 PM

[quote] I swear the right-leaning media in Canada always makes incumbent conservative leaders look like idiots so that when an election happens, expectations are so low that if the leader doesn't end up shitting himself on stage, he's a "surprising success"

From what I see - the Conservatives are making so many promises on policies they don't support, Today O'Toole came out in Suppoprt of Safe Injection Sites, and policy the Conservatives opposed for ten years!

So first it was the Carbon Tax, then it was being "pro-choice" now it is supporting Safe Injection Sites

i really hope the Canadian public sees through this because though he may promise one thing, once he gets into office, he will do a 180 denying he ever said these things,

by Anonymousreply 305August 22, 2021 9:21 PM

Yeah, like the promised electoral reform, a national pharmacare plan, a drug agency to lower prices across the board and a rare disease drug strategy to lower costs, and, my favourite, the 2019 promise to lower internet and mobile costs by 25%.

Hey, wait a minute... that was Justin.

by Anonymousreply 306August 22, 2021 9:26 PM

[quote] Yeah, like the promised electoral reform, a national pharmacare plan, a drug agency to lower prices across the board and a rare disease drug strategy to lower costs, and, my favourite, the 2019 promise to lower internet and mobile costs by 25%.

This has been entirely lifted from the Toronto Sun - a Right-Wing rag sheet - so if R306 is an Erin O'Toole cheerleader, you are in the minority

R306 the point is the Conservative were adamantly against Carbon Tax & Safe Injection Sites

and now they support it

by Anonymousreply 307August 22, 2021 9:53 PM

It's also true.

by Anonymousreply 308August 22, 2021 9:59 PM

So trolldar me so you can confirm, yes, I loathe Justin Trudeau and I really want a Liberal government and yes, that came from the Sun, which I regret.

Nonetheless, it is true. He promised and didn't and you can ascribe to that whatever you like from reality to failed optimism to cynical opportunism resting on buns of steel to outright lying. Fill your boots. It's the truth.

It is so lazily biased to act as any politician promises and fails. The point was the Conservatives don't have the market cornered.

by Anonymousreply 309August 22, 2021 10:02 PM

A few prominent poll analysts are questioning EKOS data. Their polls today shows the conservative ahead with 18 to 24 years olds.

Mainstreet meanwhile is suggesting their latest polls have the Liberals still in the lead.

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by Anonymousreply 310August 22, 2021 10:05 PM

And further, R307, people can wake up from time to time, or leaders can. About a month ago I came round to the idea of decriminalising possession of drugs for personal use. I had to work really hard to shut up and listen to a really smart, really centrist public health official who made the case. And now I support it. How many Liberals, including Jean Chretien, supported gay marriage even just five years before Jean Chretien maneuvered it into the law of the land? Only the most imbecilic person can deny climate change now. Is it so possible O'Toole can't grasp that? Can not the same thing have happened in his view of drug use?

I don't trust the Conservatives either. I hate the mean spiritedness that seems to have substituted for preservation and tradition and I have little faith in Albertans to do much for anybody. But in fairness and reason I can't exclude the possibility.

And you are a hopeless partisan, R307, with little of value to contribute to a robust political debate if you can't concede that people can learn and change.

by Anonymousreply 311August 22, 2021 10:09 PM

R310, what it tells me is polls may well turn out to be about as useless as every other recent election almost anywhere.

by Anonymousreply 312August 22, 2021 10:09 PM

This election is reminding me of the one the UK had a few years ago when Theresa May called an unnecessary election while her party was double points ahead of Labour. But then h she lost her majority and was basically politically dead for the next the next year or so before she resigned.

by Anonymousreply 313August 22, 2021 10:11 PM

R313 OMG yes the "Strong and stable" election. Parties in power never seem to learn that HUGE leads in the polls never hold come election time.

Interesting reading some stuff from political reporters and leaks from the Liberals seem to suggest the knives are already out for Trudeau. It sounds like people around the PM (mostly his sycophantic advisers) assured him that this would be a cakewalk that O'Toole would easily be torched. They figured their covid track record would ease them to a majority win. The underestimated the lack of appetite for an election and Trudeau's popularity as prime minister. Apparently Trudeau didn't bother to get consensus about what the Liberal platform should actually be.

Voters seem intended to punish Trudeau for this election. Good Lord, I think we're headed for a Prime Minister O'Toole...............

by Anonymousreply 314August 22, 2021 10:18 PM

I still say - I keep posting this to make myself believe it - it will be a Liberal minority. For all I just defended the possibility O'Toole could have learned and moved forward, I don't believe the centre of the country or the Maritimes will vote that way in any significant number. However, am certain - and certainly hope - the wunderkind is almost done for.

by Anonymousreply 315August 22, 2021 10:21 PM

What's the drama going on with Freeland now?

by Anonymousreply 316August 23, 2021 7:11 AM

Is there any? No sense of that in the papers this morning.

by Anonymousreply 317August 23, 2021 1:55 PM

Oh, the retweet thing. Both Trudeau and Freeland's accounts got their hands slapped.

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by Anonymousreply 318August 23, 2021 1:56 PM

I think the media is pushing HARD for an Erin O'Toole win - as former NDP MPP Cheri Di Novo just tweeted

"Am I Missing Something? Does the Liberals seem to have no campaign? Just askin' All we see are OToole and Singh. Of course our media is pretty uniformly Conservative."

So for all the talk of a Liberal Media Bias, that is simply not true. Come hell or high water - the media is going to do everything possible to ensure a Conservative win

This might not all be Justin Trudeau fault - if the media is pulling so hard for Erin O'Toole and basically being his P.R. Firm - nobody, can fight against that.

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by Anonymousreply 319August 23, 2021 4:03 PM

R319 With the exception of the CBC, every media outlet in Canada is owned by large (conservative) corporations. Even the Toronto Star, which was bought out just before the pandemic, now swings right.

New Nanos polls still has Trudeau has preferred choice for Prime Minister but O'Toole is now second and only about 5 point behind Trudeau.

by Anonymousreply 320August 23, 2021 4:31 PM

Ekos has Conservatives ahead 10 POINTS in Ontario. Mainstreet has liberals slightly ahead in Ontari, but cons gaining ground in Atlantic. Ipsos poll due out later. Pollsters are now suggesting if Trudeau does not steady the numbers within the next two weeks, we are on the path for a conservative government.

by Anonymousreply 321August 23, 2021 7:34 PM
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by Anonymousreply 322August 23, 2021 9:56 PM

Hubris.

As much as I loathe Just-eh, I don't believe it will be a Conservative government in either form not matter what the polls say.. but the Liberals are going to have to work really, really hard and then ditch the wunderkind.

The NDP will have them outflanked on the left, the Conservatives are sounding awfully centrist, even if they aren't. The Liberals are going to have to find a way to cut the centre out from under the Conservatives without looking desperate and to nibble away at the NDP on the left.

I still say minority Liberals and then the back end of Trudeau. But we all agree that's the best view of him anyway.

by Anonymousreply 323August 23, 2021 10:31 PM

I don't know, R323.......

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by Anonymousreply 324August 23, 2021 10:32 PM

Eh, polls are fun and games. The last week is important. You decide what matters to you. I am not intending to vote. I take the view it is not my duty to vote... that lets them off the hook too easily. My view is they need to earn it. None of them have. Now, I cannot see voting Conservative ever. I would find it hard to vote NDP. My vote is generally Liberal and more Liberal, oddly, the older I get. (I pine for Chretien.) But I cannot vote for the ballerina unless my MP looks at risk... it's Freeland... I think her margin will narrow but I am sure she prevails.

by Anonymousreply 325August 23, 2021 10:36 PM

If the Libs don't jump on this they are idiots....O'Toole basically confirmed he does want to private aspects of the Canadian health care system.

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by Anonymousreply 326August 24, 2021 1:45 AM

It's pretty clear, O'Toole is going for the centrist vote and it seems to be working for him....this is basically Conservatively Fiscal Socialism. Dear Lord I think he's going to win.

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by Anonymousreply 327August 24, 2021 1:55 AM

If NDP can’t win give the conservatives a chance. I don’t see how they could be much worse than the liberals in a country like Canada. I actually paid less taxes under Harper and I’m not wealthy.

by Anonymousreply 328August 24, 2021 4:00 AM

Mainstreet is saying that the People's Choice Party has moved into second in Alberta, and despite the Conservative lead in Ontario many riding are now a three race between Cons/Libs/NDP particularly in SW Ontario. Libs still way ahead in Quebec but falling slightly in the Atlantic.

It's clear Liberals expected they could run on their COVID track record, but underestimated the desire for post-pandemic change.

R328 I'm not a Liberal shill, but in fact the income tax rate has been lowered twice under Trudeau. However, the Liberals did get rid of a lot of Harper tax credits like rebates for transit passes. As a gay man I cannot in good conscious ever vote Conservative.

by Anonymousreply 329August 24, 2021 4:18 AM

The evil conservative media at work...

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by Anonymousreply 330August 24, 2021 4:32 AM

Angus Reid favourability ratings: NDP in first place, CPC slightly behind in second and Libs in free fall. NDP's platform also has the highest support rating despite being in 3rd place in national polls.

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by Anonymousreply 331August 24, 2021 6:41 AM

Angus Ried is suggesting that it's the NDP not that Conservatives that actually have the momentum! These polls are fucked up. Ekos says Cons have the momentum. Mainstreet is saying a statistical tie between Cons/Libs and now Angus says NDP has all the momentum.

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by Anonymousreply 332August 24, 2021 6:54 AM

Fuck.....are we really going to have PM O'Toole??

by Anonymousreply 333August 24, 2021 9:16 AM

My take: one or both of the opposition parties have the momentum... the Liberals have lost it. This is in part because of a self-serving election call and partly because of an over-investment in the personality of the leader. That's always got the risk something happens that casts the personality of the leader in a new light.

This volatility should panic every sitting politician in the country. We cannot yet fully understand but we can accept there is huge emotional churn in the voters. There is no predicting what will happen. These aren't normal times. This election didn't need to be called and they have themselves to blame. You wonder if we're going to see the Peterson effect at the national level. Then again "Fuck... are we really going to have PM O'Toole?" may be a widely held fear/horror/nausea inducer in vote rich places and we'll stumble out of this not much changed from where we went in.

by Anonymousreply 334August 24, 2021 12:38 PM

Liberals have double-digit lead in GTA as campaign enters second week, new poll suggests

The Liberals appear to have seized a double-digit lead in the Greater Toronto Area as the federal election campaign enters its second week, a new poll suggests.

The Mainstreet Research phone survey of 532 adult residents was conducted between Aug. 18 and 21 and is considered accurate to within 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

It found that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party had the support of 43 per cent of respondents, among decided and leading voters. The Conservatives led by Erin O’Toole were in second with the support of 29 per cent of decided and leaning voters while the NDP were in third at 20 per cent. The People’s Party of Canada and the Green Party were well behind at five and three per cent, respectively.

Support for the Liberals was the highest in Toronto (49.9 per cent) and York Region (49 per cent) while the Conservatives fared better in Dufferin Simcoe (48.2 per cent) and Erin O’Toole’s home base of Durham Region (39.6 per cent).

NDP support was the highest in Hamilton (25.1 per cent) where the party was in second place behind the Liberals.

About nine per cent of the respondents to the poll said that they remained undecided about their voting intentions with just under a month to go until election day.

“The Liberals are in strong shape in their old stronghold of the GTA so they are doing well and they are doing what they are supposed to do but they are going to have to play defence in this area. They are not going to be looking to pick up seats, they are looking to hold all the seats they have currently,” Mainstreet Research Vice President Joseph Angolano told CP24 on Monday afternoon. “So far so good.”

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by Anonymousreply 335August 24, 2021 12:47 PM

If the Liberals outright lose, then Trudeau needs to resign immediately and the party needs to get rid of all the Trudeaumaniacs 2.0 in their ranks as well.

I'm losing hope and am worried about the very real potential of a Conservative government. Trudeau is to blame if that happens, fucking bad time to call an election, but of course, he couldn't see that.

by Anonymousreply 336August 24, 2021 1:20 PM

What if it's another minority?

by Anonymousreply 337August 24, 2021 1:32 PM

New analysis by Éric Grenier.

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by Anonymousreply 338August 24, 2021 3:49 PM

R333 It is now officially a possibility that the conservatives could win. The Liberal vote still remains more efficient in terms of seat count, but Ontario's numbers are increasingly suggestion a three way battle in many riding between Lib/Cons/NDP. O'Toole is clearly outflanking Trudeau by running a centrist campaign and distancing himself from the social conservatism of Scheer and Harper.

Leger has a new poll out that likely explains what is going on: it shows almost 78% of voters believe Trudeau was wrong to call an election right now and it should have waited until 2022. 62% believe the election is an attempt at a power grab by Trudeau, and 54% would consider voting against the Liberals because of this election call.

So, the common feeling right now appears to be Trudeau was wrong to call an election and he should be punished. Will this still be the cause in two to three weeks after the leaders debate, we shall see.

by Anonymousreply 339August 24, 2021 5:39 PM

Interesting article from The Hill, party insiders are saying liberal candidates are getting a lot of push back on the ground to this election. They are nervous and increasingly pissed with Trudeau for calling this election, they feel the Prime Minister and his advisors are out of touch with the reality on the ground.

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by Anonymousreply 340August 24, 2021 5:44 PM

Of course he's going to be punished, R340. He's really out of touch and the Cons are stealing his wind. Today, they just announced pension protections. FFs, I can't handle O'Toole.

by Anonymousreply 341August 24, 2021 5:48 PM

Scary but true....if O'Toole manages to seal the deal during the Leaders debate, it'll be a conservative government.

R341 It's almost as if the Conservatives learned from their 2015 and 2019 election failures while the Liberals have learned nothing about why they won a reduced number of seats in 2019.

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by Anonymousreply 342August 24, 2021 6:08 PM

I know this is purely anecdotal, but a few people from my work like O'Toole, and they are NOT religious, hard-right MAGAs. They're middle-slightly upper middle class and they want their tax rebates back - kids arts/sports rebate, tuition rebate, income splitting, etc...It's not that they don't support help for low income people, but they feel as though everything is taken away from them and there's never anything for people who earn a decent, but not overly high salary. FFS.

by Anonymousreply 343August 24, 2021 6:13 PM

Trudeau announced a new first time buyers program today, but I don't know how much traction it'll get. If O'Toole is swinging for the center, than Trudeau needs to shift left and try and get NDP voters to vote for him strategically. If Trudeau pledges a wealth tax and some kind of UBI for low waged workers!

I don't want the conservatives to win. I honestly believe there will be serious buyers remorse from it after a few months. Trudeau is an idiot for calling an election right now, he should have waited and allowed the opposition to vote down the government which would've probably happened next year I think. But I still think until we're out of the worst of COVID, we need someone experienced at the helm.

by Anonymousreply 344August 24, 2021 6:21 PM

Didn't he do something similar a few years ago, R344? Who did it actually help. O'Toole is stealing centre and even centre-left ideas...I don't know if Trudeau will be able to steal from Singh.

by Anonymousreply 345August 24, 2021 6:27 PM

R340 even if the Liberals win, it's the beginning of the end of Trudeau's political career. One thing that annoys me when I listen to Trudeau speak is that he acts as though he has not been prime minister for the last six years. He's had ample opportunity to implement new policies and yet his government has done very little. The only reason I will consider voting for him is because I do not want a conservative government and because he did a good job during covid compared to the provincial counterparts.

by Anonymousreply 346August 24, 2021 8:46 PM

This is actually a good move that I think a lot people would support, but is it enough>?

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by Anonymousreply 347August 24, 2021 8:48 PM

I used to think Freeland would be next inane for leadership but no more.

They'll have to find someone else. Anand or even Carney would be better.

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by Anonymousreply 348August 24, 2021 10:16 PM

Stupid autocorrect. Should be "next in line"

by Anonymousreply 349August 24, 2021 10:20 PM
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by Anonymousreply 350August 25, 2021 4:57 AM

I read reporting that said there was a gentlemen's agreement Trudeau and Ford would not criticise one another during the campaign. This is in part down the Star's headline - what Trudeau said was something less pointed - but mentioning him all at doesn't really honour that agreement. Calculated risk but does it also show a kind of aggression that suggests a nervous campaign team?

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by Anonymousreply 351August 25, 2021 1:43 PM

When I read this I headline thought: Oh, Jesus... because it's just the kind of own goal that is a huge problem... and gets easily exploited to wedge in the heads of the stupid (who represent a number of Conservative voters.)

So it's a risk for Trudeau, who will probably respond with too much poetry. But it's also a risk for the Conservatives... for obvious reasons, including it may be too tempting for their secret rednecks to avoid opening their mouths over, which could be helpful.

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by Anonymousreply 352August 25, 2021 7:11 PM

He's being met by anti-vax protesters everywhere he goes.

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by Anonymousreply 353August 25, 2021 8:01 PM

I wonder if this shit gets to him?

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by Anonymousreply 354August 25, 2021 8:02 PM

That's actually probably good for him. 73% of the country (over 12) is double vaxxed. Those protestors are the minority and look like the ugly kooks they are.

by Anonymousreply 355August 25, 2021 8:03 PM

Until one of them goes too far and tries to kill him, R355. One of the protesters apparently flew across the country to heckle him today in Vancouver. He was at a similar protest in Hamilton a few days ago. That's fucking unhinged.

by Anonymousreply 356August 25, 2021 8:16 PM

R356 I am not Trudeau's biggest fan but the hate many on the right have for him is totally unhinged.

BTW has anyone applied for a ballot by mail through Elections Canada? I filled the form last Monday and I still haven't heard back and the site still says that it's pending processing.

by Anonymousreply 357August 25, 2021 8:37 PM

Same here, R357. I criticize Trudeau a lot, but I don't hate the guy. He doesn't deserve the unhinged hatred directed at him. He has his faults and I don't agree with many of his policies, but, he's not what those on the right, or even those on the extreme left think.

I hope he stays safe. Maybe time to end his walk-abouts? He shouldn't be meandering through crowds of ant-vax lunatics.

by Anonymousreply 358August 25, 2021 9:02 PM

The anti-vax nuts have threatened nearly every public official with any visibility who has the misfortune to be attached to anything COVID related. I know, I work for one, in Canada, who's had to take some surprising measures under far less threat than that. The point is, security is very good, they take their work very seriously and there is way, way, way, way more going on in terms of intel and protection than the public ever knows. What I (little) I found out working with my "principal" astonished me.

by Anonymousreply 359August 25, 2021 9:14 PM

Race tightens.

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by Anonymousreply 360August 25, 2021 9:39 PM

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a Liberal minority. I would rather we ride out the rest of the pandemic with them in power.

by Anonymousreply 361August 25, 2021 9:43 PM

Same, R361, but it's beginning to look like that may not happen.

by Anonymousreply 362August 25, 2021 10:41 PM

I am probably most critical of Trudeau of all on this thread... I want a Liberal minority (to keep all the Liberals but one ;) ) I am sure it will happen. Even in the latest polling the Liberals hold the most seats in a minority parliament. I don't sense a landslide run away from them, just a reflection of discontent. If he dials down the bullshit factor, shows a little humility, talks fairly centrist, he can still pull it off. People inherently trust the Liberals more than the Conservatives, don't you think?

by Anonymousreply 363August 26, 2021 12:28 AM
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by Anonymousreply 364August 26, 2021 2:26 AM

R364 No way in hell the NDP would work with the conservatives, their base would flip their lids.

by Anonymousreply 365August 26, 2021 3:10 AM

Is Singh's beard a religious thing? And if it is does he have to have it that long? Because I think he be really hot if he trimmed his beard.

by Anonymousreply 366August 26, 2021 3:28 AM

Singh is a political opportunist, and even though he's deified, so was Jack Layton, R365.

by Anonymousreply 367August 26, 2021 3:37 AM
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by Anonymousreply 368August 26, 2021 3:41 AM

I have a feeling Trudeaus big political gamble will pay off.

by Anonymousreply 369August 26, 2021 3:44 AM

Please tell me we'll have an election night thread! I'm going to be so stressed out on the 20th, I'll need support.

by Anonymousreply 370August 26, 2021 3:46 AM

[quote] Please tell me we'll have an election night thread!

I'm having Nunavut!

by Anonymousreply 371August 26, 2021 3:52 AM

R357, a friend of mine got his mail-in ballot within a week, but perhaps it takes longer to arrive now that more people are applying for them. I think as long as you apply before the deadline you're okay.

by Anonymousreply 372August 26, 2021 12:56 PM

My sister and her husband received their's no problem. It may be mail in ballots delay a final outcome, if the divide between parties is narrow in a minority situation, which this now seems poised to be.

by Anonymousreply 373August 26, 2021 12:59 PM

Ewwwwww

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by Anonymousreply 374August 26, 2021 4:08 PM

this has to be a combination of Trudeau allergy and the Toole sounding reasonable. Still, national polls mean less than regional.

by Anonymousreply 375August 26, 2021 4:19 PM

Just in case people in Ontario are wondering where Doug Ford has disappeared to

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by Anonymousreply 376August 26, 2021 5:31 PM

My friends, they hid me in 2019 too.

by Anonymousreply 377August 26, 2021 5:35 PM

^ LOL @ my friends. Fucking Doug. What a shit. I wrote to him yesterday and said just put the fucking vaccine passports in place. He won't read it, obviously, but they keep a tally who writes on what issues so if you feel vaccine passports are the way to go, write the fucker.

by Anonymousreply 378August 26, 2021 6:10 PM

Folks, ignore, R378. I have a cheesecake recipe to share with you.

by Anonymousreply 379August 26, 2021 6:15 PM

It's like Doug won't rest until he is guaranteed to lose the next election. I'd say thank God, but the price and the waste in the meantime.

by Anonymousreply 380August 26, 2021 6:42 PM

Vote Trudaddy!

by Anonymousreply 381August 26, 2021 7:03 PM

I told you guys up thread that the media and the Conservatives would go after Trudeau on the Afghanistan issue. Now, it's domingating the news and Trudeau is getting all the blame. Monsef's comments yesterday (though I understand why she used the term, "brothers") have not helped.

by Anonymousreply 382August 26, 2021 7:42 PM

Agreed, Monsef's remarks were ill judged, only for the opportunity they created. She was speaking honestly and in the context of that culture, but ouch. Too many people will only hear that she called them brothers. The only good side may be it will bring out the red necks and to prevent a Conservative government, they need to be heard. Literally.

by Anonymousreply 383August 26, 2021 8:16 PM

Say what you will, and unnervingly, O'Toole is running a good campaign.

On reconciliation today he said: "O’Toole says people should be proud of Canada if they want to recommit to making it better and believes the flags, which are ordered to remain at half-mast until further notice, should be raised. “I’ve been talking to Indigenous leaders since I became Opposition leader. Reconciliation will be important for me as will be pride in Canada, building it up, making more opportunity for more people including Indigenous Peoples,” he said Thursday at the party’s broadcast studio in Ottawa."

That's pretty clever. Whether or not the reconciliation part is sincere, I don't know, but O'Toole has a knack for sounding optimistic and energized in - dare I say - a Biden kind of way. He's closer to most people than JT comes across. I still think something will go wrong for the Conservatives but this is not the election anybody expected and while I still think it's going to be minority Liberal I'm increasingly convinced a lot of Liberals are spending as much time burning up the phones talking next leadership campaign. JT's collapse is not complete, but underway. It would take a miracle to bring in a majority now.

by Anonymousreply 384August 26, 2021 8:21 PM

O'Toole is running a good campaign, no doubt, R384. It looked a little pathetic on the first day, but he's picked up since. Now Trudeau is being hammered because O'Toole made the letter (about the interpreters in Afghanistan) to Trudeau weeks ago public.

I'm very worried about a Conservative win. They're closing the gap every day, and though I can't stand O'Toole, he's not a buffoon like Scheer.

by Anonymousreply 385August 26, 2021 8:25 PM

I still think it will be a case of peak too soon. He can't sustain it forever, the media will be ready to attack (the real test), and the red necks are never far.

What worries me a little is O'Toole seems kinda zen and confident, like he'd be hard to push off his mark. He'll be tested.

JT needs to stop the attacks, stop sounding defensive and pivot to a kind of optimism that doesn't make everybody puke. He can do that. If he tries.

by Anonymousreply 386August 26, 2021 8:36 PM

Good breakdown here. The conservative shift is coming solely from Ontario (which is bonkers given the "Ford Effect"). While the Liberals might be sweating more, they still have the easiest path to the most seats as long as their lead in Quebec holds. It's going to be a minority but I'm no 50/50 on who will win.

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by Anonymousreply 387August 26, 2021 10:06 PM

That is why I think Trudeau blew it, R387. No one wanted this election and he's going to be punished.

by Anonymousreply 388August 26, 2021 10:44 PM

[quote]Say what you will, and unnervingly, O'Toole is running a good campaign.

While hiding in a hotel room and refusing to go out and meet the public.

by Anonymousreply 389August 26, 2021 11:18 PM

Well, sorry, R389... you can't argue the numbers. For better or worse, he is running an effective campaign. Surprises the hell out of me.

by Anonymousreply 390August 26, 2021 11:25 PM

R389, Trudeau's the one who called the election, why isn't he better prepared?

by Anonymousreply 391August 26, 2021 11:28 PM

And if JT was hiding in the hotel room and not meeting the public he'd be social distancing and behaving responsibly during a campaign in a pandemic.

Consistency, thou art a jewel.

by Anonymousreply 392August 26, 2021 11:29 PM

Fuck, fuck, fuck.

Well, whatever Trudeau is doing isn't working and whatever O'Toole is doing is.

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by Anonymousreply 393August 26, 2021 11:30 PM

^ Looks like he's bleeding to the NDP.

by Anonymousreply 394August 26, 2021 11:32 PM

Cons are gaining too though.

by Anonymousreply 395August 26, 2021 11:34 PM

R390 and R391 won't address why a man who wants to represent the people won't actually meet with them in public.

by Anonymousreply 396August 26, 2021 11:51 PM

[quote]And if JT was hiding in the hotel room and not meeting the public he'd be social distancing and behaving responsibly during a campaign in a pandemic.

Nope. He'd be called a coward, and asked why he won't go meet the voters and he'd be pilloried for sitting in his Ivory Tower and refusing to address the voters.

by Anonymousreply 397August 26, 2021 11:52 PM

R396, I am R391 and I am not O'Toole's campaign manager, I have no idea why he's not meeting more of the public. Regardless, his poll numbers are up and Trudeau's are down, so only one of them is doing something right up to this point. You're one of the hyper partisan Liberals here who excuses everything JT does/says. When will you admit that it was extremely foolish of him to call an election now? If he loses, there he is to blame and the country will suffer because of his mistake.

by Anonymousreply 398August 26, 2021 11:55 PM

[quote] I have no idea why he's not meeting more of the public. Regardless, his poll numbers are up

There's your answer.

by Anonymousreply 399August 27, 2021 12:03 AM

I'm R390 and I have no idea why he isn't out and about to meet R396's standards either. But JT apparently is... and the results speak for themselves.

by Anonymousreply 400August 27, 2021 12:06 AM

It's more than that, R399. Trudeau's message isn't landing, O'Toole is playing moderate and his attacks on Trudeau are landing. Canadians didn't want this election and the Cons are being effective for once in their strategizing. There's too much going on - fourth wave, BC fires, Afghanistan.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal war room right now. They've got to be panicking.

by Anonymousreply 401August 27, 2021 12:09 AM

Well, it was pure idiocy to be the one to make the call and not have a full platform. They should have had some great ideas to justify the contention to move out of the pandemic and restore the strength of the nation, we need the ability to make it happen. Instead, they seem to have decided to coast on personality again. And perhaps familiarity breeds contempt.

by Anonymousreply 402August 27, 2021 12:12 AM

The Liberals thought they were going to coast on their pandemic response too, R402. I think they underestimated how unpopular Trudeau actually is.

I'm pissed because I'm a federal worker and therefore my workplace is subject to Trudeau's vaccine mandate, which I support. There's a handful of anti-vaxxers that I have to work beside and if O'Toole wins, he'll do away with the mandate. Trudeau did not need an election to do this and everyone knows the NDP would have backed him on it, so would the Bloc, if need be. Thanks to Trudeau's vanity, I'm going to have to spend eight hours a day next to these anti-vax chucklefucks (if he loses).

by Anonymousreply 403August 27, 2021 12:18 AM

Why is Trudeau perceived as elitist compared to Conservative candidates? His family background? His skin color? Education? Other factors?

by Anonymousreply 404August 27, 2021 12:27 AM

Son of a former PM, R404 and a rich kid.

Singh and O'Toole have privileged backgrounds too though.

by Anonymousreply 405August 27, 2021 12:52 AM

[quote] Singh and O'Toole have privileged backgrounds too though.

That’s precisely why I asked, so my question is relative : why is he “perceived” as elitist compared to the Conservative candidates?

by Anonymousreply 406August 27, 2021 1:05 AM

I always felt it was more that breathy show off drama queen presence more than his background. Everybody knew who he was. I don't buy Singh had a privileged background, compared to Trudeau. I know he got put in some private school in Ohio but it wasn't Choate or Groton. His family were immigrants. There was alcohol abuse in the family. That's not an easy life even if you have more money than some, which I have no idea how much they did or didn't have. Trying to equate Singh's family with Trudeau's is a stretch. I know nothing of O'Toole's background.

by Anonymousreply 407August 27, 2021 1:09 AM

Yup. Max basically said what I feel......

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by Anonymousreply 408August 27, 2021 1:12 AM

Thinking more on it, Justin just exudes smug to many people (I argue.) He's got an answer to everything. Usually pithy. Usually some shade of woke. He comes across as lecturing, looking down, as, frankly, many progressives do. There is no point being right if no one wants to listen to you, unless you wear their rejection as some badge of honour instead of getting something done. Trudeau the elder wowed most of the country with his intellect - he was sometimes talking down to us, but damn, he knew what he was talking about. And he had a clear vision for the country. He was going to help us stand on our own two feet, break away from Britain, become multicultural and just, take the best of us and let us do our best with it. Not everybody loved him - he won some and lost some - but you knew what he was about. Justin doesn't have that vision on a good day, or if he has he can't put it terms people can hang on, if he's even tried. Justin sounds more like Meghan Markle than Pierre Trudeau. I've always said, rather too much like his mother, who was a dear, in small doses, but best left to conduct her affairs in private, not on the public stage.

by Anonymousreply 409August 27, 2021 1:16 AM

O'Toole is courting Quebec and he seems to have Legault in his corner. That's bad news for JT, real bad news.

by Anonymousreply 410August 27, 2021 1:20 AM

From the Globe, I laughed aloud:

"Mr. O’Toole represents a new style of leadership for the Tories, who haven’t often produced leaders you’d feel comfortable having a beer with. We recall R. B. Bennett, who wore a top hat through the Great Depression. There was Bob (Standstill) Stanfield – with his mortician’s gaze, he drew comparisons to Calvin Coolidge. Joe Clark liked to kick back with a few copies of Hansard, Brian Mulroney in a Savile Row suit, Andrew Scheer while giving Sunday school lessons. Charm school truant Stephen Harper broke into a smile about every equinox.

This race was supposed to be Mr. Trudeau’s for the taking. It still is. On issues such as the pandemic and the climate crisis, he is stronger. But if it becomes a race that makes leadership the main ballot-box issue, the new style Mr. O’Toole brings to his party gives him a fighting chance."

by Anonymousreply 411August 27, 2021 2:02 AM

The Liberals were in serious trouble back in 2019 when they won a minority after just one term. Added to the fact they narrowly lost the popular vote to the Conservatives and all their seats in the Prairie provinces. Liberals won not because of popularity but because people in the East (Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic) felt the alternative was worse.

The reality is, the Liberal government since 2015 has been a lackluster one that has failed to deliver on most of its key promises. They did well during the pandemic but calling this election now as COVID seems to be ramping up again, not to mention all the other shit going on in the world, was a HUGE mistake. This is coupled with the fact the Liberal campaign is just not resonating because they clearly expected to cruise to an easy victory.

And this is where Trudeau's greatest weakness lies. He is not a strategic thinker or all the sound with policy. He sees himself (his words) as a brand leader. His advisors clearly have become too insulated from the reality of what is happening on ground level. In 2015, he was something new. The young, good-looking son of one of Canada's best leaders who was going to lead Canada to a new future of greatness...that didn't happen. In 2019, he was the devil voters knew. Now, voters are seeing O'Toole and are not seeing a cold and awkward leader; he is not being viewed as the "conservative boogeyman."

O'Toole has got the Red Tories back in Ontario, and the NDP is chipping away at the Liberals' younger and left-leaning voters. The only way Trudeau can achieve even a minority at this rate is to get one of these groups back onboard.

Trudeau has become hubris personified, and regardless of the outcome now, his political future is dead in the water. I DO NOT want the conservatives to win because (like with what happened with Ford and Kenney) voters will likely have huge buyers remorse within months, but the blame rests entirely with Trudeau and his team. Campaigns matter, and the Liberals are a sinking ship right now.

by Anonymousreply 412August 27, 2021 3:10 AM

Remember how just a few weeks ago the Liberals had a chance at winning some seats in Alberta?

A good friend of mine and some family in Winnipeg are worried that their ridings will go Conservative and NDP after years of being Liberal strongholds. Something's different this time around, I was worried in 2019, but this feels different.

by Anonymousreply 413August 27, 2021 3:28 AM

^ I'm telling you... it is pandemic crazy. People have stress and anger and PTSD and they're looking to let off some steam... the last thing I'd want to be these days is a COVID patient or an incumbent seeking re-election.

by Anonymousreply 414August 27, 2021 3:31 AM

R412, I agree with every word.

by Anonymousreply 415August 27, 2021 3:33 AM

R412, I totally agree too, but, the Liberals kept several Winnipeg seats that have been safe for them for ages - Winnipeg has always been the progressive outlier in the Prairies. Now, at least two Lib seats there are in jeopardy. They don't count for much in the long run, but, it's a symptom. My aunt is heavily involved in her Liberal riding association and she says the mood is not good, and this is for an incumbent who has held the riding easily in the past. People, even Liberal party members are not happy with this election call at all.

by Anonymousreply 416August 27, 2021 3:40 AM

R413 The world has changed a lot since 2019. I've always felt that the first "post-covid" election would be a change election and that what it appears is happening.

O'Toole is playing the pragmatic card and also presenting himself as a "common sense alternative" the rise of the more "woke" Liberals and it's working well. Canadians are nothing if not pragmatic centrists.

The NDP's platform, however, has been the most popular in opinion polls, with it's cost of living social supports (e.g. UBI, wealth tax, and universal pharmacare) very popular. So Canadians are also clearly craving increased social support and changes.

Basically it appears the Cons and NDP did their homework and the Liberals did not.

by Anonymousreply 417August 27, 2021 3:57 AM

[quote] I've always felt that the first "post-covid" election would be a change election and that what it appears is happening.

I agree. In Ontario, Doug Ford and John Tory are next.

by Anonymousreply 418August 27, 2021 4:00 AM

Oh shit, pollsters are suggesting Conservatives are treading towards a majority if their numbers keep growing as they have. New Main Street poll showing Cons around 37% nationally.

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by Anonymousreply 419August 27, 2021 4:03 AM

FFS, R419. I feel sick.

by Anonymousreply 420August 27, 2021 4:15 AM

I don't accept it is likely to happen. We need to pass Labour Day... people are barely focused. The media and the parties haven't tackled the Conservatives yet. This has been very easy so far. If I am the NDP I don't look at these numbers and see a scenario where I am Opposition. The NDP will want a Liberal minority, so they will start attacking the Conservatives after Labour Day. The message to the Liberals is run to the centre hard and fast, with a few left leaning offers that appeal to a wide group not just the social justice realm. I want a Liberal gov't, just not led by Trudeau. I think people are starting to see now he was all flash. I am sticking with Liberal minority.

by Anonymousreply 421August 27, 2021 4:27 AM

Singh said today he'd prop up the Conservatives, R421. He's still busy attacking Trudeau.

by Anonymousreply 422August 27, 2021 4:30 AM

R422 If Singh said that, he clearly doesn't understand his own base. This could shift some soft NDP voters to the Liberals.

by Anonymousreply 423August 27, 2021 4:36 AM

R423, yes, there's a risk for Singh & the NDP if they say they will work with the Conservatives. Chantal Hébert and the At Issue panel said the same thing on CBC last night.

by Anonymousreply 424August 27, 2021 12:10 PM

I'm surprised Singh would say that. Now's the time to be running, not horse trading. The message is: we don't count. Dumb move. I agree, he just planted the seed in the minds of many NDP voters: I may have to vote Liberal.

by Anonymousreply 425August 27, 2021 1:02 PM

My new crazy theory is this: O'Toole is a centrist and he recgonizes if the party has any hope of returning to contention in a reliable way (i.e. every election) it needs to get back to the centre. So he's running this centrist campaign, knowing he is likely to lose, but to be able to argue to the party the centre is where we have a chance, Margaret Thatcher in Sorels is not.

Not suggesting he's in it to win this but that platform is organized and clear and specific.... it didn't come out of nowhere. I wonder if there could be a long game here. No one really expected them to win. No one does. This is polling is early enough to panic Liberals and NDPs into thinking differently. Unless somehow there's an actual change election forming. I still doubt there is. Agree as upthread, this may spook Liberal and NDP support. Liberal minority (I have to say it ten times a day or I gut antsy. As much as I do not like Trudeau I do not TRUST Conservatives.)

by Anonymousreply 426August 27, 2021 1:07 PM

If the Cons win a minority and Singh props him up, that will be the end of the NDP. Singh's young voters are delusional if they don't recognize that he is a political opportunist just as all politicians are.

by Anonymousreply 427August 27, 2021 3:02 PM

Jeez, Trudeau seems off his game in this presser. He must be nervous.

by Anonymousreply 428August 27, 2021 3:17 PM

He should be.

by Anonymousreply 429August 27, 2021 3:18 PM

It feels like the writing is on the wall at this point. Pollsters are increasingly predicted a Conservative majority!

Look Trudeau was a fucking egotistical idiot for calling this election but I cannot believe the Cons are doing so well in Ontario! They only have to look at the Ford fiasco to see what conservative governance gets you. J.J. McCullough (who is a gay conservative living in BC) makes a good point here. The conservative rise is likely being fueled by the media trying to create a horserace.

R428 He's been nervous acting all week. I think he sees the regardless if the Liberals still win a minority, that he is basically a political deadman walking.

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by Anonymousreply 430August 27, 2021 4:39 PM

R430 Yeah I don't understand how anyone in Ontario can look at Ford and think "hey, we should vote conservative." I'm hoping there is still time to turn this around. I think Trudeau has one card left to play in Ontario and that's vaccines. The vast majority of people in Ontario support mandatory vaccines and passports, but the Cons don't.

by Anonymousreply 431August 27, 2021 5:32 PM

Basically idiots will vote for the Conservatives and then wonder where their COVID supports went. I have a cousin who has been dependant on CRB to supplement his income and is going to vote conservative and I'm like don't be surprised when either they cut you off or even make you pay part of it back.

by Anonymousreply 432August 27, 2021 5:45 PM

Mary!! Trudeau's Press Conference earlier today was an unmitigated disaster while O'Toole looked more Prime Ministerial. Fuckkkkkk Trudeau blew it (and not in a good way).

by Anonymousreply 433August 27, 2021 8:05 PM

OMG, it was terrible, R433. Just awful. He didn't answer questions, too many people in the room )not socially distance), still no answer as to why he called the election in the first place. It's almost like he wants to lose. MARY!! is right!!

by Anonymousreply 434August 27, 2021 8:22 PM

I'm not sure who this guy is but Max Fawcett, a Political expert/journalist, I follow posted it, but this person seems to think that the media is hyping a horserace while they know that (at least as of yesterday) there conservatives had no path to victory.

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by Anonymousreply 435August 27, 2021 9:35 PM

[quote]I don't understand how anyone in Ontario can look at Ford and think "hey, we should vote conservative." I'm hoping there is still time to turn this around. I think Trudeau has one card left to play in Ontario and that's vaccines. The vast majority of people in Ontario support mandatory vaccines and passports, but the Cons don't.

Well, first, most people aren't passionately political or partisan like we are - most people just go about living their lives so government is just something that is there, not a particular solution, taken for granted - so in that context it is entirely possible to make a distinction at this point between Erin O'Toole and Doug Ford. O'Toole, right now at least, does not look or sound or talk like Doug Ford. And if you're just a regular person, with kids to get to soccer, tired of the pandemic, not ashamed of the country, sorry about Reconciliation but struggling to believe we're all hateful racists... you're just looking at O'Toole as an option to choose. It's that simple.

But where I think you are right is on vaccines -100%. This is Trudeau's battering ram because O'Toole is offside the majority. He can pull them back in on that basis.

by Anonymousreply 436August 27, 2021 9:36 PM

Whoops... the vaccine thing may be going up in smoke... Doug just caved.

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by Anonymousreply 437August 27, 2021 9:36 PM

Like, I can't stand JT and I can come up with a reason: We called the election to be ready for a future where COVID-19 is under contorl. The fact is a minority may work and a minority might not work. So we're going to the Canadian people to say this is what we will do to be ready for the future... do you want us to do it? To be ready for the future, to create the best possible future, we need Canadians to choose.

by Anonymousreply 438August 27, 2021 9:39 PM

And then he says, when asked: Yes, I absolutely want a majority. We need a majority. The way to get things done is with a majority (and then cite some really compelling accomplishments reached by Liberal majorities... like, oh, during the fucking three majorities in a row won by Liberal Leader Jean Chretien. Like in his own majority. Like a couple of his father's majorities.)

You can make a credible argument when it's about more than yourself.

by Anonymousreply 439August 27, 2021 9:42 PM

R433 & R434 OMG that conference this morning was a CAR CRASH! Fuck, fuck, fuck! He didn't answer a single question and then when asked about Afghanistan he sided tracked to how Stephen Harper hated Syrians....OMG!!!!!

R436 You are on to something about the fact that many Canadians are tiring of the so-called "woke" mantra of colonialism, and white privilege. In the past couple of days I've been surprised at the number of my co-workers (Most of whom are not white) have suggested they are leaning towards voting Conservative because of it...I work for a university so that worries me that people who are otherwise very socially liberal are leaning towards the Cons.

by Anonymousreply 440August 27, 2021 9:42 PM

^ I can't believe I am making arguments in support of Trudeau. I can't stand that brat!

by Anonymousreply 441August 27, 2021 9:43 PM

O'Toole elegantly (to my amazement) stole Reconciliation with the argument we can be proud of the country and make that country better and are obligated to Reconcile. He stole every bloody argument. I can't believe anybody that smart advises the Conservatives.

But here's my tin hat theory: Frank Luntz is advising them. Now, he's starting to use his powers for modest good instead of massive evil, but say what you will about Luntz he knows what the hell he's talking about. And he knows how to translate tricky things into language the middle responds to. He was on CNN the other night and the location id was Toronto. What the hell is Frank Luntz doing in Toronto at this moment?

I'd bet money he's advising O'Toole. That reconciliation answer if it wasn't Luntz, it should be.

by Anonymousreply 442August 27, 2021 9:46 PM

Justin’s woke thing is just an act and it’s sickening. I think most people are starting to see him for the phone he is. He just does what’s of the moment and being woke has been cool for a few years. It’s gone from being a much needed really wonderful thing to a complete joke. People are idiots on the left and the right and they always take everything too far. Expect a backlash.

by Anonymousreply 443August 27, 2021 10:12 PM

Funny, when those protestors tore down the statues of Queen Victoria and the present Queen in Winnipeg and in Ontario several more were covered in red blood, he said the Conservatives are going to win the next election because of that...

by Anonymousreply 444August 27, 2021 10:59 PM

Did the erection pick up or let it go into voicemail?

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by Anonymousreply 445August 27, 2021 11:04 PM

Well, you know, I get that anger and I am empathetic to that anger and remorseful over the basis for that anger. But when things like that happen to statues of the Queen or even Queen Victoria... it bothers me too. It's everybody's country but, yes, those of us blamed for everything have an attachment to it to and to it's history and we don't see it as all bad and it wasn't all bad. I am not a monarchist in the ass kissing sense, I don't actually believe royalty are superior to us, but I do feel comfortable as a constitutional monarchy and with the Crown as head of state. It feels, actually, quite Canadian to me. I also understand when new Canadians feel less supportive of the institution. Perhaps it will change some day. I hope not in my lifetime. All this is a long way to say things are changing, many things, many definitely should... but could we perhaps just keep a little something of the past for some of us? Maybe we can't but that's my reaction to events like described in R444 and I am basically open to change and supportive of change you can imagine how things like that play with people who aren't.

by Anonymousreply 446August 27, 2021 11:11 PM

What I love about this thread is all the arm chair politicking.

No facts to back up opinions, polls presented as the end of the Liberal party, denouncing Trudeau for noting more than who his family is.

No inside info or plans from any parties, just twitter links to more factless opinions.

It's a very Canadian thread.

by Anonymousreply 447August 27, 2021 11:19 PM

So? What's wrong with that?

by Anonymousreply 448August 27, 2021 11:27 PM

As opposed to the substance of all the other threads on DL??

by Anonymousreply 449August 27, 2021 11:27 PM

Putting R449 on ignore eliminates about 60% of the replies in this thread.

Also shows us that he's in the Canadian gossip threads doing what? Trashing Trudeau and the Libs.

by Anonymousreply 450August 27, 2021 11:33 PM

Factless opinions, R447? What do you call the Liberals sinking in the polls?

by Anonymousreply 451August 27, 2021 11:39 PM

[quote]What do you call the Liberals sinking in the polls?

Polls are only good for dogs. --John G. Diefenbaker

by Anonymousreply 452August 27, 2021 11:42 PM

Liberals now below 30% in every poll out today. Cons way ahead with male voters and people under the age of 65. Liberals strongest with women and seniors. Ontario is too close to call, with a small Con lead. Quebec still swinging liberal but BQ gaining slightly. 338 and CBC projects now have Libs and Cons within 10 seats of each other. Libs still have an easier path to victory but that is waning.

Meanwhile a video of O'Toole has appeared, saying Canada should follow Alberta's example of how to deal with COVID....god help up us!

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by Anonymousreply 453August 28, 2021 12:30 AM
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by Anonymousreply 454August 28, 2021 12:39 AM
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by Anonymousreply 455August 28, 2021 12:39 AM
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by Anonymousreply 456August 28, 2021 1:17 AM

Uh oh.

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by Anonymousreply 457August 28, 2021 2:18 AM

I'm starting to think best case now is a Conservative minority.

by Anonymousreply 458August 28, 2021 2:24 AM

R450, I like the Toronto and completely own my dislike of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. He's a light weight. I cannot wait until we see the back of him. And if you read those blocked posted you Trolldared you will see I explicitly say I want a Liberal government, which I do. I just want one led my a brain with stature... give me a Trudeau the Elder, a Jean Chretien. I have said supportive things about Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney. I think the man child, with his poet and pilates, is in over his head and needs to move on to whatever community college will hire him.

And, apparently, so do a lot of other Canadians. Now I'm gonna put you on ignore and predict you're that sad, fixated Justin fangurl who exists not to support the Liberal party, but to wank over the man child.

by Anonymousreply 459August 28, 2021 5:03 AM

Fucking autocorrect: one more time:

I like the topic and completely own my dislike of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. He's a light weight. I cannot wait until we see the back of him. And if you read those blocked posts you Trolldared you will see I explicitly say I want a Liberal government, which I do. I just want one led by a brain with stature... give me a Trudeau the Elder, a Jean Chretien. I have said supportive things about Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney. I think the man child, with his poetry and pilates, is in over his head and needs to move on to whatever community college will hire him.

And, apparently, so do a lot of other Canadians. Now I'm gonna put you on ignore and predict you're that sad, fixated Justin fangurl who exists not to support the Liberal party, but to wank over the man child.

(I may be wrong in accusing R450 of being the sad, fixated Justin fangurl of earlier. Which makes two of them. So he's got two votes.)

by Anonymousreply 460August 28, 2021 5:06 AM

I’m assuming R449 is the same troll that was running amok about a Scheer win in 2019 and then slinked away with his thumb up his ass when it didn’t happen

by Anonymousreply 461August 28, 2021 5:24 AM

If Trudeau loses, (I think he will), R460, I'll be looking at so-called "Liberal twitter" to see how many of them are left to support the actual party. I fully believe that there are lots of fangurls who wank after Trudeau and don't give two full shits about the party and its policies. I don't see the same individual cheerleading for whomever leads the party next.

I actually felt very sorry for Trudeau tonight. No matter what, he didn't deserve that kind of abuse. In the press conference he gave later on, there was a spark of leadership. His encounter with that group of violent thugs and trash lit a fire in his belly, for the sake of the country I hope he keeps it up. This last week was fucking awful for him and the Liberals. If he doesn't pick up soon, we'll for sure be getting a Con minority at best.

by Anonymousreply 462August 28, 2021 5:30 AM

You assume wrong and no check of my posts will tell you anything different. The only positive thing I've said about Conservatives lately has been that O'Toole is surprising me. My beef has always been how Justin Trudeau's vacuous, superficial personality translated into a vacuous, superficial leadership that weakens the Liberals. And here we are. With badly weakened Liberals.

I've made it clear who I am. Scheer was odious. You're blocked.

by Anonymousreply 463August 28, 2021 5:32 AM

[quote]I actually felt very sorry for Trudeau tonight. No matter what, he didn't deserve that kind of abuse.

I agree. That kind of display by those kinds of people is a bad thing. I argue it might, as you seem to point out, strengthen Trudeau. Stuff like that certainly harms the Conservatives. Mr. O'Toole, what do you say to people opposed to the vaccine? Being out front is a hard place to be.

Things are going to get really hard for O'Toole. He may never crack but the doubts about the Conservatives as the party of the (mean) West never go away since the Alliance hijacked it.

Liberal minority, Trudeau moves on within twelve months. Best thing for Canada.

by Anonymousreply 464August 28, 2021 5:35 AM

Well, well, well.

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by Anonymousreply 465August 28, 2021 5:40 AM

R465 both Signh and O'Toole have condemned the protests against Trudeau. The Conservatives are "on their best behaviour" they know they are within spiting distance of a win, but one false move and they'll be out of contention.

I was watching a political panel on CBC today and one pollster said something that seems worryingly true, it doesn't seem to matter what Trudeau has done or said over the past two weeks, nothing is landing with Canadians.

Trudeau is not as popular as he and his team thought he was. Scheer saved his ass last election and that's not happening this time. The stage is set for this biggest the largest blunder in recent Canadian political history.

by Anonymousreply 466August 28, 2021 6:02 AM

I can't believe there wasn't data to show how superficial Trudeau's support was. He always polled first as best leader, best PM, but it is collapsing. Or maybe it was strong but couldn't withstand the backlash over the horrible timing of the call. I still think there's a secondary factor here the data didn't pick up on.

by Anonymousreply 467August 28, 2021 6:08 AM

R467 I think part of Trudeau's polling numbers were in part due to such low expectations surrounding O'Toole. Because O'Toole wasn't well-known he was lumped in with Scheer & Harper: another far-right social conservative with limited personality. I think the initial dip in the Liberals polling was the backlash over calling an election right now, but then the dip continued when O'Toole defied expectations has been performing much stronger than anticipated.

Someone else posted this, but the Liberals should have picked up on the troubles back in 2019 when they were reduced to a minority after only one term (it's rare in Canadian politics to go from one large majority to a minority in only 4 years). It was no longer the case that Trudeau was popular, but rather seen as better than the alternative. Now that Canadians are getting to know the alternative (aka O'Toole) they're thinking okay maybe he isn't so bad.

I think if Trudeau can turn this around, it'll be over vaccines. But he needs to turn this around within days because people voting by mail are going to start sending in their ballots after Labour Day. The protests surrounding Trudeau might help get him sympathy in Ontario where the majority of voters their loath anti-vaxxers. The conservatives have more ways to falter than Trudeau but is there enough time left?

by Anonymousreply 468August 28, 2021 6:43 AM

Maybe he's found his footing again?

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by Anonymousreply 469August 28, 2021 6:58 AM

[quote]Now that Canadians are getting to know the alternative (aka O'Toole) they're thinking okay maybe he isn't so bad.

Which is so mind blowing. After, nasty, retro Stephen Harper and the Sheerdness of the last guy, and the general presence of the wicked west in the party, it is monumental O'Toole could be seen as not so bad. And I don't think it will last. I don't trust those guys as far as I could throw them. Still, how did this happen? I think O'Toole is playing a two election game gamble - lose this one but gain seats... so he can go back to the mouth breathers and say you have a choice, run like this and see what is possible, or run like before and stay in opposition forever. Then the next election would be his chance to prove it or lose his job trying. Not sure anyone envisioned this.

by Anonymousreply 470August 28, 2021 12:49 PM

R457, those numbers show the BQ is down in Quebec compared to 2019. It will be interesting to see which party benefits.

by Anonymousreply 471August 28, 2021 1:03 PM

FFS

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by Anonymousreply 472August 28, 2021 3:22 PM

MARY!!!!

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by Anonymousreply 473August 28, 2021 5:08 PM

On a totally separate note, pun intended, I find Yves-François Blanchet sexy. And a snappy dresser.

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by Anonymousreply 474August 28, 2021 5:14 PM

I've always found him hot, R474. My guess is he's a dirty fucker in bed too.

Any gay rumors? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he's at least been with a few men in his life.

by Anonymousreply 475August 28, 2021 5:18 PM

Why isn't the Canadian media looking into who's financing these traveling packs of protestors?

by Anonymousreply 476August 28, 2021 7:43 PM

R471 the Liberals ... the Cons are in 4th place in Quebec.

by Anonymousreply 477August 28, 2021 7:44 PM

Demographically, the Liberals are doing better with people over the age of 65, the demographic that typically votes in the largest numbers. But with COVID I worry not as many old people will go out to vote.

by Anonymousreply 478August 28, 2021 8:29 PM

How is this happening? I didn't expect Trudeau to get a majority....how are they sinking so fast and so hard? WTF?

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by Anonymousreply 479August 28, 2021 9:07 PM

Are you people new to Canadian elections? The conservative parties always lead in election polling then lose. When they're down in the polls is when you need to worry.

by Anonymousreply 480August 28, 2021 9:13 PM

R479 Red Tories moved to the conservatives and the left of the party moving to the NDP.

by Anonymousreply 481August 28, 2021 9:24 PM

Are you sure, R480?

by Anonymousreply 482August 28, 2021 9:24 PM

R482 I think that R480 is the liberal "apologist" who is adamant they are going to win. IN 2019, the Cons and Libs were neck and neck but always within 1 to 2% each other..Liberals have dropped below 30% in 3 out of the 4 polls today....that too big of a gap. The Cons are 100% in the lead and on the cusp of being able to form a government.

by Anonymousreply 483August 28, 2021 9:27 PM

FOr the first time CBC Poll Tracker has put Cons in the lead and most likely to form a minority government.

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by Anonymousreply 484August 28, 2021 9:29 PM

R483 accuses me of being a Liberal apologist, then stumps for the CPC. He's O'Toole's tool

by Anonymousreply 485August 28, 2021 11:21 PM

The polls of next week will be telling as to whether the anti-vax morons are a factor. It either moves the needle or doesn't but it won't take long to tell.

by Anonymousreply 486August 28, 2021 11:53 PM

Do you think it'll make a difference, R486?

I hate the anti-maskers, but if they were going to act up, I think it would have been better a little later in the campaign, say, when kids are back in school.

by Anonymousreply 487August 29, 2021 12:24 AM

I have no clue, R487. Anyway, the anti maskers will look insane once COVID starts ripping through the schools, courtesy Delta. I don't credit them with being smart enough to figure that out. But within ten days of school returning, any resistance to masks will be irrelevant.

by Anonymousreply 488August 29, 2021 12:42 AM

Trudeau has to knock it out of the park in the Leaders debate or his done. Right now the only thing keeping the Conservatives from winning outright is Quebec. As long as the BQ don't go above 30% in Quebec Trudeau will win the most seats.

by Anonymousreply 489August 29, 2021 1:50 AM

Does anyone here think he has a chance to win?

by Anonymousreply 490August 29, 2021 1:57 AM

R490 It's looking grim but historically it's the last three weeks of an election that actually decides the winner. Regardless, I think it's going to be close.

by Anonymousreply 491August 29, 2021 2:01 AM

R490, I believe in the end he will squeak through with a minority. But he won't be long in the job. Gone any time from election night to twelve months from.

by Anonymousreply 492August 29, 2021 2:03 AM

What does this mean?

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by Anonymousreply 493August 29, 2021 2:09 AM

rope-a-dope (rōp′ə-dōp′) adj. 1. Relating to or being a strategy in boxing in which one fighter covers up and often leans back against the ropes to allow the opponent to become exhausted by throwing punches so that the opponent cannot defend effectively late in the fight and is thus defeated. 2. Relating to or being a strategy in which one behaves passively or with little aggression until an opportune moment arises for successful action.

So by that theory, Trudeau is just letting O'Toole shoot his wad, blow his powder, show all his cards. Or by option two the liberals are just waiting for the conservatives to screw up and then pounce. That tweet sounds a bit like wishful thinking to me. It's the voters if the polls are right who may be playing rope a dope. No one expected this. The liberals are plainly caught flat-footed. It's not to say they can't pull it out of the fire, it's not to say Trudeau won't have a great debate, it's not to say the conservatives won't screw up. But to attribute this as some kind of great strategy on behalf of the liberals, seems a bit optimistic to me.

by Anonymousreply 494August 29, 2021 2:25 AM

It's going to be a very long three weeks.

by Anonymousreply 495August 29, 2021 2:48 AM

MARY!!!!

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by Anonymousreply 496August 29, 2021 6:37 AM

MARY!!! R496!!!!

WTF is happening? How on earth do the Liberals move from what looked like majority territory only a few weeks ago to this? What's going on? Are they being punished for calling the election or is something else going on?

by Anonymousreply 497August 29, 2021 8:17 AM

R489, yeah, the French debate on TVA on Thursday September 2 will be a good opportunity for Trudeau to make his case to Quebecers.

by Anonymousreply 498August 29, 2021 12:04 PM

Part (large part) punishment for the call, part weariness of a "strong" personality, part COVID powerless driving a need for change. This was never going to be a rational election. This is that feeling when you're so pissed and frustrated you hurl something across the room.

by Anonymousreply 499August 29, 2021 12:25 PM

Yikes....

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by Anonymousreply 500August 29, 2021 1:11 PM

The Liberals can keep chipping away at doubts about the Conservatives - but that's a strategy more to move NDP voters to the Liberals' column than anything else. (And in the end, if you're a young NDP voter you way fear a Conservative government more than a Liberal government. Regretfully, O'Toole's but a few things on the table, like employee representation on boards, that might actually appeal to older NDP voters.) It won't be easy, but a Liberal minority could still result.

The debates will be significant, too. There's always the risk of a defining moment.

Plus, who's to say the polling is right? The polling's been suspect in elections everywhere for five or ten years now. I take no comfort in that - it could be wrong with a Conservative landslide pending, who knows?

So many wild cards. To me the most significant is what happens in schools. If Delta is gathering steam and outbreaks are emerging - which they will, it's just a question of when - that's going to create an even more volatile, emotional electorate - and possibly one that stays home. The question is which voters stay home. Old people for sure and they seem to be breaking Liberal if I recall upthread.

This call was so stupid.

by Anonymousreply 501August 29, 2021 1:24 PM

Holy fuck. These people are unhinged.

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by Anonymousreply 502August 29, 2021 4:50 PM

Yikes.

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by Anonymousreply 503August 29, 2021 4:51 PM
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by Anonymousreply 504August 29, 2021 4:52 PM

Losers. He's annoying, not traitorous. I hate that people like that - I don't even know what I hate... I just wish they'd shut up and go away.

by Anonymousreply 505August 29, 2021 4:55 PM

Jesus Christ. They'd kill him given the chance.

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by Anonymousreply 506August 29, 2021 5:24 PM

Honestly, I think this is a good thing for his standing. This isn unCanadian. It's terrible manners. Which sounds stupid to say but it's true. This isn't us. This is Florida. And I say that in full hope he loses the election sufficiently to have to resign. But this is embarrassing and unseemly. God, I loathe the 905.

by Anonymousreply 507August 29, 2021 5:30 PM

Is anyone watching? There's more protestors than supporters and they're nearly drowning out both Trudeau and Freeland.

by Anonymousreply 508August 29, 2021 5:38 PM

Hmm.....

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by Anonymousreply 509August 29, 2021 5:57 PM

All these fucking protesters and anti-vaxxers, they ARE the conservative base. The cons might try to be presenting a moderate front right now but this is who they really are.

R499 100%. We've talked about this on other Canadian threads but this first "post" covid election was always going to be a change election. Trudeau has been unpopular for years now and only won the last election because he was the devil we knew. O'Toole has completely outflanked the Liberals by playing the centrist card. People are looking to punish someone and that's going to be Trudeau. I also think there is a slight culture backlash too in regards to all the recent dialogue surrounding reconciliation and systemic racism. When that whole cancel Canada Day and rip down the statues thing happened, I knew there was going to be political backlash and I think that's part of what we're seeing. O'Toole struck the right tone on that answer by saying that you can acknowledge the sins of the past while still be patriotic and recognizing that fundamentally Canada is a good country.

I'm resigning myself to the reality the Cons are going to win. There is going to be huge buyers remorse I think.

by Anonymousreply 510August 29, 2021 6:23 PM

I agree there will be buyer's remorse, I am still not certain there will be a buy. Protests like you're seeing now, I don't think a majority like that. I was intending to sit this election out because I think Trudeau is such a pompous ass and I didn't want to give him my vote even indirectly. Now I'm thinking I might have to vote because this just doesn't sit right with me. And arguably, if O'Toole stick to his line, he might hurt his electoral prospects by pissing off the neanderthal component of the party, who stay home, sulking.

by Anonymousreply 511August 29, 2021 7:38 PM

I was going to vote with my affirmations and cast a ballot for the Greens, but, they have zero chance in my riding, so I'll hold my nose and vote Liberal now, R511. I am NOT a Trudeau supporter in general, but he does not deserve this unhinged shit. If a Lib win was certain, I'd stick to my principles and vote Green, but shit's changed.

by Anonymousreply 512August 29, 2021 7:54 PM

I think it will come down to enough Quebec ridings switching from Bloc to Liberal to get another minority, and, by election day, my guess is that is what's going to happen.

by Anonymousreply 513August 29, 2021 7:55 PM

Wait until the debates. O'Toole will expose himself for what he is.

by Anonymousreply 514August 29, 2021 8:13 PM

R512 Yeah I was going to vote NDP but will hold my nose and vote Liberal. I'm not a lover of Trudeau but he is way better than the alternative.

by Anonymousreply 515August 29, 2021 8:55 PM

If Trudeau does not step down after this, then it will be the last time I vote Liberal out of fear of the alternative, R515. He's done his job, now it's time for a fresh leader. It will be better for him and for the country.

by Anonymousreply 516August 29, 2021 8:57 PM

Someone needs to dox this guy.

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by Anonymousreply 517August 29, 2021 9:14 PM

R516 If Trudeau does eek out a minority, I think he'd stay in office until the end of the year or maybe next year, but he won't be the leader by the next election. If he wins, he'd kind of be like Theresa May who basically spent two years lingering until her party just couldn't take her anymore.

by Anonymousreply 518August 29, 2021 10:22 PM

I don't think he'll hang on out of cluelessness, but I agree he won't rush out the door. I could see him announcing resignation around Christmas, staying at the helm until a new party leader is chosen.

by Anonymousreply 519August 29, 2021 11:28 PM

Fingers crossed but I think we’re starting to see the beginnings of the Conservative campaign unraveling. The extreme protests and death threats around Trudeau, O'Toole conference in Quebec was terrible where he refused to answer simple questions about the Cheryl Gallant fiasco, climate change (basically said he would support MPs who don't believe climate change is real) , and abortion rights. Also Conservative canidates coming out of the woodwork saying they don't support mandatory vaccinations or passports.

by Anonymousreply 520August 30, 2021 4:07 AM

I hope you're right, R520. If things don't turn in the next week then I think it's over.

by Anonymousreply 521August 30, 2021 5:14 AM

R513, there are some indications that the BQ is struggling in Québec, but the question is whether the drop in BQ support will go to the Liberals, NDP or Cons.

by Anonymousreply 522August 30, 2021 12:19 PM

I thought the same thing about the Cheryl Gallant story. This is what I argued all along - the red necks would emerge. It won't surge back into majority for the Liberals but they will at least carry the day. Now, if he cuts Gallant loose... but the fact is, as I see it, the Conservatives can't govern the country in the 2000s with the 1950s hanging around their necks.

by Anonymousreply 523August 30, 2021 12:27 PM

Liberals lead in Ontario... which is vote rich.

Liberal minority, followed by a lot of election night chatter about just how long Justin Trudeau can remain leader of the party.

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by Anonymousreply 524August 30, 2021 1:56 PM

Oh. My. God.

Why didn't the Liberals come up with this?

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by Anonymousreply 525August 30, 2021 6:27 PM

Oh, Jesus. I'm too much of a cynic to be moved by it... I'm so much of a cynic I'm not sure anybody will fall for it... but damn, these guys aren't fucking around.

That said, that crazy lady MP from eastern Ontario.

by Anonymousreply 526August 30, 2021 6:31 PM

Fuck. It should have been a Liberal thing. Holy shit. Do you know how many Canadians care about animal welfare? And getting tough on people who abuse their spouse's pet? Holy shit.

Trudeau still won't say I'd his platform will be ready by the French language debate.

Jeezus, O'Toole's going to win.

by Anonymousreply 527August 30, 2021 6:37 PM

I am so LOL at that dog ad. It's just kind of evil genius. I know it's bad for the country and I shouldn't find it funny, but son of bitch I'm laughing.

Jus-teh couldn't have pulled it off if they had thought of it. Best to forget it happened.

by Anonymousreply 528August 30, 2021 6:40 PM

If O'Toole runs that ad on TV, all kinds of soccer moms will vote for him.

How the fuck is animal rights a Conservative issue? Shouldn't they be more of a Liberal or even NDP/Green thing.

by Anonymousreply 529August 30, 2021 6:43 PM

R525 The CPC is throwing everything at the wall and hoping something will stick.

All the Liberals have to do is remind voters that the CPC opposed animal cruelty laws because of Alberta cattle.

by Anonymousreply 530August 30, 2021 6:47 PM

The next wave is return to school. Schools in Tampa Bay - just Tampa Bay - have seen 10,000 cases in schools in three weeks.

Imagine the Canadian versions of those mommies voting.

by Anonymousreply 531August 30, 2021 6:48 PM

There's a difference between beef for dinner and Winston the family pet. I'm sorry, as cynical as I am, I'm giving the win to the Cons on this one.

by Anonymousreply 532August 30, 2021 6:48 PM

I agree, R532.

This ad could be dangerous to the Liberals.

by Anonymousreply 533August 30, 2021 6:50 PM

It's just so unexpected I'm laughing. That could be dangerous for them though, because they could get mocked for it. However, Moms at Home Sense, looking for a new cradling mug, may eat it up.

"Do you find him sexy?"

"Well, he looks like I wish Dan would look if he cleans up."

"I thought the same thing when I looked at Tom this morning."

by Anonymousreply 534August 30, 2021 6:54 PM

He's doubling down.

"He's not as cute as Justin, but he's going to ban puppy mills."

"I'm tired of Justin. I mean he's hot, but why'd he call the election?"

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by Anonymousreply 535August 30, 2021 7:00 PM

R532 and 4533 and the kinds of idiots this ad was made for. Most voters will see it for the absurdity it is.

And again--remind voters the CPC OPPOSED animal cruelty laws.

by Anonymousreply 536August 30, 2021 7:00 PM

Tripled down, actually.

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by Anonymousreply 537August 30, 2021 7:02 PM

R536, did I hear two tiny feet stamping in that post?

by Anonymousreply 538August 30, 2021 7:19 PM

It's a good ad, but I don't think animal welfare is a very high priority issue right now. But on an emotional level it might work even though technically animal cruelty laws are under provincial jurisdictions.

by Anonymousreply 539August 30, 2021 7:35 PM

So...he's ban animal cruelty but not conversion therapy?

by Anonymousreply 540August 30, 2021 7:58 PM

People who think this ad would work are unhinged. People paying bills and worrying about vaccines for their kids and trying to get their parents healthcare don't give two shits about Spot and Fluffy.

Only simpletons who call their animals fur babies will are and they vote for the NDP, not the CPC.

That ad is just a modern version of this picture.

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by Anonymousreply 541August 30, 2021 8:09 PM

^ Panicking party member.

by Anonymousreply 542August 30, 2021 8:13 PM

^^^Chicken Little

by Anonymousreply 543August 30, 2021 8:15 PM

Next up, O'Toole's promise to pass legislation protecting Karens from being called Karen.

by Anonymousreply 544August 30, 2021 8:24 PM

FUCK.

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by Anonymousreply 545August 30, 2021 9:27 PM

Maybe he will propose the Karen Bill.

by Anonymousreply 546August 30, 2021 9:46 PM

If the Reid poll is correct, there's a problem.

"The Liberal leader is now the most intensely disliked among his major party challengers, with fully two-in-five (41%) saying they view him “very unfavourably”.

Why? I mean I can't stand the guy - he's smug and the WE thing to me actually exposed him as a total bullshitter: he rewards his friends as much as anybody. He's no different than any of them. And then he's smug on top of it.

Anyone else got a view on why he's failing personally against a Conservative?

by Anonymousreply 547August 30, 2021 9:49 PM

[quote]Anyone else got a view on why he's failing personally against a Conservative?

Because Trudeau had to do the hard work of telling people that they need to get vaccines. O'Toole hasn't had any heavy lifting during the pandemic so all these jackals are throwing their hate and frustrations at Trudeau.

When O'Toole starts cutting benefits, and slashing funding for all the pet services women love then they'll wonder why he turned on them.

by Anonymousreply 548August 30, 2021 10:43 PM

Here, R547.

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by Anonymousreply 549August 30, 2021 11:02 PM

From Mainstreet:

1. Represents Canada interest on international stage: LPC33.8, CPC 41.3%, NDP 14.8% 2. Handle the COVID pandemic: LPC 35.8%, 35.5%, NDP 15.8% 3. Deal with climate change: LPC 26.5%, CPC 33.9%, NDP 23.7% 4. Provide affordable housing: LPC 21.5%, CPC33.9%, 31.5% 5. Strengthen Canadian economy: LPC 29.8%, CPC 45.4%, NDP 14.1% 6. Improve access to health care: LPC 24.9%, CPC 35.3%, NDP 28% 7. Eliminate inequalities between non-racialized and racialized ones, including indigenous peoples: LPC 22.3%, CPC 27.3%, NDP 36.5%

Yeah, they are definitely oversampling conservatives.

by Anonymousreply 550August 30, 2021 11:03 PM

R550 Doug Ford's "former" campaign manager is co-owner of Mainstreet...they always over sample conservatives. My gut tells me the cons have this in the bag though. People are already starting to vote by mail. Even if Trudeau pulls back ahead after Labour Day, it might already be too late.

R547 Trudeau hasn't actually been popular since halfway through his first term. He won a huge majority in 2015 which was reduced to a minority just four years later. It's still fairly rare in federal politics for a government whose first term was a majority not to get a second (though reduced) majority. The Liberals only won in 2019 because of Andrew Scheer. Ontario and Quebec decided on the Liberals because it was a "devil you know" situation. His numbers were boosted during COVID because he did a good job & because the country hadn't had the chance to really see O'Toole in action. Now, they have and they aren't seeing the scary conservative monster. O'Toole has painted himself as a centrist pragmatic leader and voters are buying it. Trudeau called an election when polls showed no one wanted and voters seem keen on punishing him for it. He asked Canadians to make a decision on the future of the country but didn't account for the fact that answer might "we see a future without you." Campaigns matter and Trudeau has fumbled the ball big time. The reality is, people aren't buying his virtue over substance form of leadership anymore. One of my personal problems with Trudeau is when he speaks, he acts like he hasn't been the Prime Minister for the last six years. Housing affordability has been a huge problem for years and yet he's just saying now that it's a problem?

Any other time I would say Trudeau deserves to lose, but having the Conservatives in power as we ride out the rest of the pandemic is going to be a HUGE mistake. But that's where this headed and we better get ready.

by Anonymousreply 551August 31, 2021 12:38 AM

A little good news.

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by Anonymousreply 552August 31, 2021 4:37 AM

R552 Interesting because Mainstreet is more pro-conservative

Here is my hunch of what *might* happen. If the Cons win more seats than the Libs but combined the Libs and NDP have more seats, Trudeau (as is he right as the sitting PM) will attempt to seek the confidence of the House with NDP support. The NDP would likely play ball in order to keep O'Toole out of power, and to present themselves as a legit alternative government.

by Anonymousreply 553August 31, 2021 4:56 AM

R551 The ones voting by mail three weeks ahead of Election Day have already made their minds anyway. The Libs's fate depends heavily on the turnout, which we won't find out until Election Day.

by Anonymousreply 554August 31, 2021 4:57 AM

Latest from Frank Graves

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by Anonymousreply 555August 31, 2021 4:59 AM

Imagine the conspiracy nuts if that happened, R553.

by Anonymousreply 556August 31, 2021 5:03 AM

Anything short of an outright majority, I see Trudeau stepping down within the next 1 to 2 years and pass the reign to Freeland. Though I do think much of the shit he gets constantly is quite unfair, he is damaged goods politically.

by Anonymousreply 557August 31, 2021 5:09 AM

Please, no Freeland. Something's not all right with her. She'd super smart, but very, very strange. Shes a good deputy PM, but she isn't leadership material. The Liberals would be making a huge mistake electing her.

She used to show up at meetings straight from a jog, drenched in sweat and smelling. No one would say anything to her for some reason. Anyway, between that, cutting her toenails in Parliament, taking off her shoes at the G7, please no Freeland.

Also, her family history is messy to put it mildly, and she has never come clean on it and has even said that her grandparents were victims. I think it's too late for her to backtrack on it now and the opposition would be all over it.

by Anonymousreply 558August 31, 2021 5:19 AM

R556 Oh the right wing nuts would lose their shit BUT it's 100% constitutional for Trudeau to remain PM if he can command the confidence of the house. Canadians fundamentally don't understand how our system of government works. An incumbent Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until they resign or are dismissed by the Governor General (the GG really can only dismiss a PM if they've lost the confidence of the house). So even if on election night the Prime Minister's party is handed their ass and the opposition gets a clear majority of seats, as the incumbent Prime Minister they can still attempt to form a government and put a throne speech to the House in a confidence vote....they do not have to seek the Governor General's permission because they have not resigned Traditionally though, the sitting PM will signal their intention to resign on election night if it's clear they don't have enough seats. If Trudeau tests the confidence of the house with NDP support but that fails, then he either must resign or ask the GG to have another election (which she would deny and call on O'Toole first & if he fails, then a second election).

by Anonymousreply 559August 31, 2021 5:23 AM

This very situation was discussed in 2019 when it looked like Trudeau might lose to Scheer. Evan Solomon brought it up and the right wingers lost their shit.

by Anonymousreply 560August 31, 2021 5:25 AM

R559 They can in theory, but governments of losers have never been a thing Canada. Federally anyway. Given the current political climate, it's just not the right time to push the envelop.

by Anonymousreply 561August 31, 2021 5:26 AM

Lmao. I had this very thought briefly but was afraid to say it. Sorry, but having CPC at 38% -AND- PPC at 7% is simply ludicrous.

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by Anonymousreply 562August 31, 2021 5:28 AM

Frank's coming out with new numbers right away!!

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by Anonymousreply 563August 31, 2021 5:32 AM

R563 Hopefully, but he only said they would have it in 15, not they would publish it.

by Anonymousreply 564August 31, 2021 5:34 AM

I can't take this anymore! I'll never make it till the 20th!!

by Anonymousreply 565August 31, 2021 5:36 AM

R565 No need to lose your marbles just yet. The media is playing up the Liberal collapse rhetoric because it is the obvious narrative to maximize clicks from all sides. The debates haven't even started, which means O'Toole hasn't had a single chance to shoot himself in the foot just yet. I get that things are looking quite grim for the Libs, but it's far from over yet.

by Anonymousreply 566August 31, 2021 5:42 AM

I guess this means that the Liberal uptick they saw in Ontario was not a fluke? The national rolling average also saw the gap closing by 2%.

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by Anonymousreply 567August 31, 2021 5:58 AM

Looks like the lunatics raging at Trudeau's rallies and vandalizing Liberal campaign signs all over the country have been doing an excellent job.

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by Anonymousreply 568August 31, 2021 6:07 AM

Rolled my eyes at the title but they made a few good points. I'll just add one thing though: while it's true that immigrants from Asia often lean conservative, the same can't be said about their children, who typically grow up in the GTA and the GVA, surrounded by peers who are brought up with decidedly progressive values.

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by Anonymousreply 569August 31, 2021 6:25 AM

The Liberals lead in Quebec kind of astonishes me. What a whacked out ride so far. In a way I don't mind it. Makes the Liberals work harder and think more. They may come out of this with a little humility and that won't do them any harm. Does anyone else think a majority is out of the question? I feel like it's hard to say anything at this point. We are about halfway through the campaign. I guess the debates could either confirm the polls right before or collapse them.

This is weird. There seems to be so much distrust of the Conservatives but so much palpable dislike of Trudeau personally. That's a strange tug of war.

by Anonymousreply 570August 31, 2021 12:54 PM

The Star: The Conservatives have widened their lead in popular support but the Liberals would still take enough seats today to eke out a minority victory as the federal election approaches its halfway point, a new analysis from Vox Pop Labs shows.

Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives now have the support of 34.1 per cent of Canadians, compared to 32.3 per cent for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

The analysis — from The Signal, Vox Pop Labs’ election forecast for The Star — continues to show the Liberals edging past the Conservatives in seat count to secure a minority win.

The projection has the Conservatives sitting at 136 seats to the Liberals’ 141: a margin that has narrowed over the past week. When Trudeau called the election, the Liberals held 155 seats in the House of Commons. -- Says to me we will see a Liberal minority in the end. Things have gone badly enough, as a result of perceptions, that any majority has slipped away. It would be a big hill to climb to move back into majority territory, unless O'Toole or one of his rednecks really steps in it, which is of course possible. If the projection above is anywhere near close, Trudeau is much more lame duck than it might have appeared. A five seat edge... you're done.

by Anonymousreply 571August 31, 2021 2:27 PM

Also from The Star:

“But asked what they’d do if the election comes down to a tight race between Liberals and Conservatives, 24 per cent of decided supporters of other parties said they’d be more likely to vote Liberal — including 30 per cent of NDP supporters, 24 per cent of Green supporters and 14 per cent of Bloc supporters.

By contrast, 15 per cent said a tight two-way race would make them more likely to vote Conservative, including 18 per cent of Bloc supporters and 34 per cent of Peoples Party of Canada supporters.”

by Anonymousreply 572August 31, 2021 2:44 PM

It's interesting... Chrystia Freeland is my MP. Out of the gate, she seemed to be everywhere but the riding, which makes sense as deputy PM and a name. Now her Insta is suddenly all about the riding. I don't think she's at actual risk but I do think no one is taking anything for granted.

by Anonymousreply 573August 31, 2021 4:30 PM

Now Trudeau's allowing a candidate with past sexual harassment complaints against him. JFC.

by Anonymousreply 574August 31, 2021 7:04 PM
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by Anonymousreply 575August 31, 2021 7:35 PM

Trudeau needs to give him the boot, R575. Like right now. O'Toole just booted one of his candidates for a similar issue.

by Anonymousreply 576August 31, 2021 7:53 PM

The trouble is, O'Toole acted quickly and it seems the Liberals are dicking around. That's gonna be a great debate moment.

by Anonymousreply 577August 31, 2021 7:56 PM

In retrospect, there may have been a better word choice than dicking around.

by Anonymousreply 578August 31, 2021 7:56 PM

Yup, R577. Trudeau needs to get rid of the guy today and say something like "I wanted to have the allegations investigated before I made a decision," or something. Otherwise, the debate will be all about Trudeau's "feminism." I can't believe he's being so stupid about this.

by Anonymousreply 579August 31, 2021 8:01 PM

Trouble is, seems like this isn't new news to the Liberals, unless I am reading it wrong.

by Anonymousreply 580August 31, 2021 8:15 PM

Well, the Conservatives merely had to drop a candidate from a riding they had no chance at winning, while the Liberals are dealing with a sitting MP. They are a few years too late to cut ties with him now anyway.

by Anonymousreply 581August 31, 2021 8:18 PM

Is that some kind of excuse?

by Anonymousreply 582August 31, 2021 8:46 PM

You know, seriously, it's never too late to do the right thing. Just tell him, don't seek re-election. Quietly. When they were like, you know, planning this triumph of strategy. If you're going to be an apologist, at least try to get your shit together. With excuses like that, I wouldn't be surprised if you're on the campaign team.

by Anonymousreply 583August 31, 2021 8:48 PM

This made me laugh.

Good for them, supporting an Indigenous candidate. Funny that they did it right in front of Singh at an NDP event.

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by Anonymousreply 584September 1, 2021 2:15 AM
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by Anonymousreply 585September 1, 2021 2:18 AM

I hope the pandering tranny lover loses, Trudeau is the enemy of women.

by Anonymousreply 586September 1, 2021 2:19 AM

Platform expected tomorrow.

by Anonymousreply 587September 1, 2021 2:59 AM

3 weeks into an election they called and they're just issues their platform now.............

by Anonymousreply 588September 1, 2021 3:11 AM

^issuing

by Anonymousreply 589September 1, 2021 3:12 AM

R588 It's normal. Others just released earlier this time.

by Anonymousreply 590September 1, 2021 3:23 AM

Someone start a part two!!!

by Anonymousreply 591September 1, 2021 3:30 AM

as requested

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by Anonymousreply 592September 1, 2021 4:04 AM

Another story about a Liberal candidate who may not have been the best pick. It sounds like a dispute between individual parties, vs. something improper than affects a wide range of people, but this kind of stuff never helps.

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by Anonymousreply 593September 1, 2021 12:40 PM

R593, that's the new Liberal candidate who is replacing Liberal MP Adam Vaughan in Spadina-Fort York.

by Anonymousreply 594September 1, 2021 12:56 PM

[quote] Good for them, supporting an Indigenous candidate. Funny that they did it right in front of Singh at an NDP event.

Why those two-faced, red-faced cunts!

by Anonymousreply 595September 1, 2021 1:07 PM

The funny thing is I think a majority wants to vote Liberal and wants to like Trudeau. I don't know if he has the self-awareness or the humility or the nerve to admit, in some words, that he knows he talks a lot of faculty lounge nonsense and then make the case he does care about more than it might appear. But it seems increasingly evident in the polling that he personally is part of the problem.

by Anonymousreply 596September 1, 2021 1:16 PM

now this

by Anonymousreply 597September 1, 2021 3:29 PM

thread will

by Anonymousreply 598September 1, 2021 3:30 PM

end because

by Anonymousreply 599September 1, 2021 3:30 PM

posts pushed it over

by Anonymousreply 600September 1, 2021 3:30 PM

MARY!!!!!!

by Anonymousreply 601September 1, 2021 3:31 PM
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