Johns Hopkins Doc predicts Herd Immunity by April...

Well that would be lovely...

Can we shoot for March?

But isn't the because the spiked over the holidays and are now back to the levels they were back in Sept/Oct?

That's what the CDC graph shows.

nice VPL in the OP's cartoon!

From the article:

[quote]At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

That's pretty fucking bold. Yes, case have dropped significantly in the last several weeks, but there's no way we could be back to normal in two months.

This guy is delusional.

Some article said it has dropped to to the cold and everyone is staying inside.

[quote] Can we shoot for March?

Don’t rush my gurlfren.

That's a bold prediction considering that the general population (those under 65 with no underlying health conditions) probably won't be fully vaccinated until early summer.

Well, thank you Joe Biden :)

It’ll be up again around St Patrick’s Day and spring break. Guaranteed.

we have no idea what "fully vaccinated" means in a world where pfizer is effective at over 80% with one shot

Pretty unlikely. Fauci doesn't think vaccination will run its course until September which makes more sense.

Covidiot with an M.D. His medical opinion is about as useful as Dr. Phil.

I've still managed not to contract it, and I'm going to live exactly as I have for the last year, for the foreseeable future. Vaccine or not, regardless of the herd.

[quote] But isn't the because the spiked over the holidays and are now back to the levels they were back in Sept/Oct?

Come again.

The source is the Wall Street Journal. What are the WSJ’s political biases? From where does the WSJ derive the bulk of its revenues? Some of what this article’s content may be valid, but please don’t take all of it at face value. Read it critically. Think for yourself.

Delete “what.”

R17 = anti-vaxxer

I didn't get to the part where Marty Malarkey quoted the Johns Hopkins doc. Or is he the Johns Hopkins doc and just doesn't use his Dr. prefix in his byline? Anyway, this is Trump-level horse puckey. The virus is mutating like crazy and we don't even know whether our current crop of vaccines will help with all of them. We haven't even seen the inevitable waves of infection from Superbowl yet. Not to mention the superspreader potential of the ongoing disaster in Texas.

R17 is correct. The WSJ wants the Roaring Twenties all over again, and if their Op-Ed board is any indication, the ability to claim that Trump would have had it all handled if he’d... just had a few more months.

R19, I have no idea where you read in that that I’m an anti-vaxxer. Not only far from the truth, but I got my second dose a week ago. My point was —for those with reading comprehension issues—is that we shouldn’t let our guard down too quickly just because the WSJ opposes restrictions on businesses, restrictions that keep us safe.

[quote]Johns Hopkins Doc predicts Herd Immunity by April...

[bold]AH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA (long deep breath) AH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA...[/bold]

By his reasoning we should never have had 'lockdowns', masks or 'social distancing', in fact we should have been holding the adult equivalent of Measles or Chicken Pox parties to achieve 'herd immunity' sooner.

A similar approach has decimated Brazil and nobody knows how long 'herd immunity' will last, or vaccine immunity for that matter?

I hope there isn't a hemorrhagic fever (Ebola, Marburg) outbreak on his watch, it'd become an epidemic .

"Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

I'll pay attention to actual infectious disease specialists, thanks.

I've always had herd immunity.

By the numbers established by people who actually understand how infectious disease works, "herd immunity" = 70% of US population = 450 million vaccine doses.

Which won't happen until July. June if production ramps up.

Anybody claiming we won't be hit by a wave of new virus strains is smoking crack.

Did any of you bother to actually read the article? There are numbers in there that are not up for debate. Take a look at those and judge for yourself. Or, ask someone smarter than you to explain it. I don't care about the WSJ. The science in the article makes sense. More than some of you just reacting after obviously not even having read the oped.

I mean, now some of you are actually arguing that the reason it's dropped 77% in the last month or so is because of winter? Weren't you the same people arguing that it was getting way worse because of winter about four months ago? Do you understand that it's not winter in the southern hemisphere and cases are dropping precipitously there as well? The unthinking, reactionary masses are so fucking annoying. No one is arguing that we can take off the masks and start sneezing on strangers come April but this huge drop is consistent with reaching an initial level of herd immunity. That's a fact. There's also the fact that way more people have had this than the numbers indicate.

Also, there are NOT a huge number of mutations. There have been relatively few mutations but Trump and his fuckhead administration having let this run rampant for so long have guaranteed that there are so many hosts available that mutations were going to occur. The fact that those mutations are convergent and happening in the same area of the viral genome might actually be a good thing and proves the limited mutability of this particular virus.

And if the numbers shoot right back up in March, R29?

[quote]but this huge drop is consistent with reaching an initial level of herd immunity. That's a fact.

No. No, it's not. It's an opinion. Which is why it's on the opinion pages of the WSJ.

[quote]There's also the fact that way more people have had this than the numbers indicate.

Also, too, an opinion.

Until there is real-world data that the vaccine is effective, it's all speculation, opinion, assumption, wishful thinking and marketing copy.

Israel is the real world, R33, or are we just ignoring those facts, too?

R31, we know exactly what the initial stages of herd immunity look like from every other plague to hit humanity since the advent of science. This matches everything we know. That is not an opinion.

R30, it won't happen. With all the people who've had it and all the people who've been vaccinated and, honestly, so many of the most at risk already dead, there will not be another massive spike, at least not in America. Having Trump and his fuckwits out of the way will help immensely on that front. That's simply not how this is going to go with the numbers where they are.

R32, that is not an opinion either. Did you even look at the numbers presented and where that conclusion was drawn from? It is universally agreed on, actually, that the numbers of infected are way higher than the tests would indicate because so few were tested in the beginning and the vast majority of the asymptomatic cases were never diagnosed. Even just going with the numbers this particular author used (which I don't think you understood)...

[quote]About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

...means that we've reached a turning point. The ONLY thing that would make another spike is a huge mutation (something this virus and most coronaviruses don't do all that much) that made it 100% able to defeat all the antibodies and T-cells of those previously infected AND all the vaccines. The chance of that happening is miniscule. The reason more medical people aren't talking about this is that they know how stupid the majority of humans are and that they would take this good news and turn around and stop wearing masks or social distancing and will refuse the vaccine thinking that it's all gonna be over soon anyway so why bother. We need to protect the parts of the world that don't have the resources we have at this point and won't be getting the vaccines for a while, especially if they've been able to keep some semblence of control of the spread of Covid so far within their borders.

By April? So about five weeks from now? Not bloody likely.

I'd love to be proven wrong, because I'm sick of living this way. But this guy isn't an epidemiologist, so I don't know why we're supposed to listen to him above listening to infectious disease experts.

I guess we'll know very soon, since he gave himself a very tight deadline.

[quote] Israel is the real world, [R33], or are we just ignoring those facts, too?

No, R34, Israel is most certainly NOT the real world. The country has been under total lockdown since December, including the international airport for almost a month. A slight easing of restricted movement occurred only last week. But everything remains shut tight. When restrictions are eased, stores, markets, malls, etc. are open, when the population begins to gather, move and interact freely, THEN Israel becomes the real world, and the effectiveness of the vaccine can be accurately assessed. Until then, it all remains speculation, opinion, assumption, wishful thinking and marketing copy.

the numbers are dropping in Europe because there were big lockdowns after Xmas. the numbers are dropping in the USA because Biden & Co model mask wearing.

The Johns Hopkins Doc might want to pay attention to today's news:

1. Coronavirus cases in Italy are on the rise again, in large part due to the more infectious British variant, a top virologist warned in a newspaper interview published Sunday.

2. German Health Minister Jens Spahn urged caution on Sunday in the face of rising coronavirus infection numbers, just as schools across the country prepare to reopen.

3. The French Riviera city of Nice was on Sunday preparing to face a new set of local restrictions against COVID-19 to combat an outbreak described as out of control and spreading much faster than elsewhere in France.

Herd Immunity Will likely be mid summer when kids get immunized

Not so fast!

ALERT: WSJ article = News Corp = Rupert Murdoch = far-rt news.

Beware. Just get your vaccines, folks.

[quote]the numbers are dropping in Europe because there were big lockdowns after Xmas. the numbers are dropping in the USA because Biden & Co model mask wearing.

There were huge get togethers for Christmas and that was almost two months ago. That is not the timeline for a surge. It's the two weeks to one month following. Instead, the cases are going down.

What is Italy's vaccination situation?

R41, again, you don't have to listen to the person writing the article. There are numbers in the article. Go verify the numbers yourself.

And you only killed an extra 200,000 people to do it. Good job, America.

This guy is optimistic, but he's not far off the mark and I don't know why so many of you are disparaging him. If the additional vaccines would get approved quickly (notably Johnson & Johnson) I would say he's on the money. We're still not seeing rampant spread of the variant forms and so far it seems like the vaccines are reasonably effective against them.

Fauci is naturally going to be conservative about it, especially for messaging purposes, and even he says September. Me, I'd say roughly June.

Fauci said this morning that we may still be wearing masks into 2022.

R45, did you bother to read beyond the hyped up headline? I already know you didn't.

The nervous nellies and chicken shits want to keep lockdowns and mask wearing for as long as possible. They get off on it, the thought of living a normal life again gives them a panic attack.

I feel like Im going to be one of the unlucky people who gets it at very end when everyone is letting their masks down.

And if you bother to read it, he makes it clear masks and vaccines are still necessary for this model to work. And for those with a non-reactionary mind, go the New York Times and play with the "model" simulator. In some of their POSSIBLE models, herd immunity could be in April/May....

From CNN (what a piece of shit network):

[quote]The Biden administration has been pushing mask-wearing more aggressively than the Trump administration did

Ya think? You mean pushing mask wearing as opposed to fucking opposing mask wearing? I hate these fucking people. Did they ever once even use the word 'lie' in respect to Trump or did he always just keep mis-speaking? CNN should join Fox and die.

Ugh not sure I put much stock in the John Hopkins guy. It's going to take more then two months to reach any type of heard immunity. One if my fuck buds is a PA whom works in the ER and he says he is still seeing a fair amount a cases. So April sounds like a pipe dream to me.

Well, I sure trust a random fuck bud over a Johns Hopkins professor....

Half million American dead in one year, probably more because this shit has been moving around longer than we know.

I'm keeping my masks and reverently believe in social distancing practices.

Mask wearing is fine to a point, but Biden completely over does it.

[quote]Can we shoot for March?

Can we fucking not?

Not everyone aspires to be a basement dwelling, socially inept hyper-introvert, r55. Some of us actually enjoy being around people. And no, I'm not an extreme extrovert who eschewed social distancing and mask wearing. I've played by the rules, but I, like so many normal people, are eager to get back to a world where socializing isn't frowned upon.

[quote]Fauci said this morning that we may still be wearing masks into 2022.

My dental hygienist says I should floss twice a day and brush twice a day. Sure, it would be wise, but do I do that? No. I guess some people do if they're especially concerned.

State governments will eliminate restrictions long before 2022 and if we're all smart we'll keep our masks handy after that in case there's a localized outbreak, but I don't think even Dr. Fauci expects people will be wearing masks all the time until 2022, except the people who like to be extra cautious.

So this guy is a surgeon. A SURGEON. Having a degree doesn't make you an expert on everything. Maybe listen to people who do this for a living OP.

I would love to live in a world where covid is mainly gone from America by April, we all would, but I don't believe we are that lucky for a second.

The more contagious British variant is growing here even while total cases are dropping, the more that variant grows eventually it is going to cause numbers to rise if we can't pick up pace on vaccines.

Here is another good article that suggests we'll be back to relatively normal in the summer, although there could be a resurgence next fall and winter, but not nearly as bad. These are real public health people talking.

And the last time I checked, April was in "Spring"

No, April is the start of summer.

[Quote]No, April is the start of summer.

So wenare just making up nonsense now r61? I say November is the start of summer!

Monday is Wednesday.

The pandemic has been over for me since Christmas Day. That's when I trashed the masks and said fuck you to social distancing. Life's a banquet.

Let's check in on Sweden, the first country to claim herd immunity was right around the corner:

Authorities in Stockholm and a number of other regions across Sweden are abandoning their earlier skepticism and advising people to rely more on face masks, as the country braces for a third wave of coronavirus infections.

The development marks a reversal of Sweden’s earlier doubts regarding face coverings, and coincides with an increase in transmission rates. On Tuesday, Stockholm authorities recommended the use of masks on public transport, not just in rush hour but at all times. They also want coverings to be used in shops and in offices.

The number of new coronavirus cases rose 27% last week in the Swedish capital, which not that long ago saw its intensive-care resources pushed to the brink.

Whilst this virus continues to mutate at rapid rates herd immunity cannot be obtained either by getting it and recovering from one version of the virus or vaccine if it doesn't have any effect on any of the mutated strains.

Until we have a vaccine that it clever enough to protect people from new strains we are fucked.