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The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse.

The year 2020 has been kind to historian Peter Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—­­to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.

The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.

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by Anonymousreply 26January 7, 2021 9:08 PM

Don't forget climate change-related extreme weather patterns and the eventual wars over declining fresh water resources.

by Anonymousreply 1November 21, 2020 8:02 AM

Nah, this is a very privileged liberal view of what's gone wrong. It completely ignores what's going on with the lower middle class and working class, and the damage of identity ideology is wrecking throughout society. It also ignores the impact of climate change and overpopulation which is driving regional conflicts, resulting in population movements, including into the 1st world, which is creating more pressures and conflicts within the class most impacted by it all: the poor.

by Anonymousreply 2November 21, 2020 8:06 AM

Which, R2, will make things even worse.

We are fucked. Find a place to hide.

by Anonymousreply 3November 21, 2020 8:18 AM

[quote]the damage of identity ideology is wrecking throughout society

The word you're looking for is "wreaking."

Not that I expect an anti-trans, anti-Markle racist who is always screaming about "liberals" and "SJWs" to know the difference.

There are a host of enormous problems facing almost every country on the planet right now. To equate one of the most difficult -- climate change -- with "identity politics" is psychotic.

by Anonymousreply 4November 21, 2020 8:25 AM

R2 if you read the entire essay he talks about the non elite classes too. Ie working class etc.

I have yet to digest the entire piece but thought I'd say that.

by Anonymousreply 5November 21, 2020 8:25 AM

There's an Ignore button you know R4. But stalking other posters, while it obviously makes your clit hard, only makes you look even more deranged.

by Anonymousreply 6November 21, 2020 8:48 AM

Mars is the ticket, bitches!

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by Anonymousreply 7November 21, 2020 10:25 AM

Pretty sure it says the same shit most of us have already figured out, yes?

Bottom line: we no longer have lots of time to change things and make slow, incremental progress.

Either we all take climate change seriously, or most of us who have children or young relatives, can almost be certain that those kids will not make it to our current age, and if they do, they will wish they had not.

by Anonymousreply 8November 21, 2020 11:55 AM

I keep telling y'all we're in the initial stages of a Civil War, and I get called a troll. It's 1860 in America right now.

by Anonymousreply 9November 21, 2020 11:58 AM

R9, no, we are not. It’s actually worse than that.

by Anonymousreply 10November 21, 2020 12:11 PM

Mother Earth is fixing to oust us and the Creator is filing nails and egging her on from the sidelines.

by Anonymousreply 11November 21, 2020 12:17 PM

[bold] Datalounge. Where the glass is always half empty.

by Anonymousreply 12November 21, 2020 12:20 PM

And let me add the following: while climate change is definitely in our horizon, many other things are as well.

by Anonymousreply 13November 21, 2020 12:22 PM

r7 The situation is now so bad people are considering a one way death ticket to Elon Musks kleptocratic frozen colony on Mars. At least the Pilgrim fathers didn't have to put up with bone decay, or Golden Idols of Grimes.

by Anonymousreply 14November 21, 2020 12:26 PM

What is with The Atlantic lately? They’ve been publishing nothing but hand-wringing “its the end of the world” articles for months now.

by Anonymousreply 15November 21, 2020 12:27 PM

r12 OurMillennialElderhater gets out the [bold]bold[/bold].

by Anonymousreply 16November 21, 2020 12:31 PM

There's definitely more angry people about. I've also noticed more people I know have zoned out with regard to the news, and retreated to their own bubbles. "I only take The Times now to do the crossword puzzle," said a friend. "Why bother? The news is only of ranting silly students and other nutters with no anchor in their lives now that Faith has gone. All they've got to pass the time is video games and Netflix and the social media target of the day." I had to agree, but said that in the past elites had offered some moral guidance. Now it's as if they're standing back too, and have said 'fuck it', we can't be bothered with this mindless venting.

by Anonymousreply 17November 21, 2020 1:43 PM

R17 The journey within, i.e., the meditative or contemplative path, is so integral during these turbulent times. I cannot take much of the “content” that is heaped on and thrust upon us; aside from being variations of the same recycled shit, with a rare exception or two, it gives me a headache.

The only way we’re going to get through this shit is by withdrawing, considering and contemplating the important shifts and measures of life, developing compassion for all beings, and acting accordingly.

Phew, we have a long road ahead of us.

by Anonymousreply 18November 21, 2020 1:49 PM

Wait, you're telling me there will be artists even worse than Lizzo, Ariana, Sam Smith, Halsey, etc????

by Anonymousreply 19November 21, 2020 2:00 PM

In previous centuries, the malcontents could ship off to frontier lands and start up their own societies, or just be alone. Now, the whole world is an overpopulated sewer with few decent countries to escape to. And globalists are making sure those handful of decent places are to be swamped with the masses from the rest of the world. The future looks ugly.

by Anonymousreply 20November 21, 2020 2:08 PM

R15 It drives up traffic and they're desperate for views.

by Anonymousreply 21November 21, 2020 3:26 PM

More relevant than ever today.

by Anonymousreply 22January 7, 2021 6:06 PM

I was already planning to move abroad when my lease is up here...yesterday made me wish I already had a bug-out bag packed. The new administration is a step in the right direction, but they cannot undo all the damage or make the brainwashed cult come to their senses. There are problems everywhere, no doubt. I just feel so exhausted by white trash and their rage.

by Anonymousreply 23January 7, 2021 6:11 PM

The end is near! Let’s start a cult and make some $$$.

by Anonymousreply 24January 7, 2021 6:13 PM

Koyaanisqatsi said this all nearly 40 years ago and in a more striking manner.

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by Anonymousreply 25January 7, 2021 6:27 PM

^^ DJT

by Anonymousreply 26January 7, 2021 9:08 PM
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