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The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse.

The year 2020 has been kind to historian Peter Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—­­to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.

The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.

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by Anonymousreply 21Last Saturday at 6:26 AM

Don't forget climate change-related extreme weather patterns and the eventual wars over declining fresh water resources.

by Anonymousreply 1Last Friday at 11:02 PM

Nah, this is a very privileged liberal view of what's gone wrong. It completely ignores what's going on with the lower middle class and working class, and the damage of identity ideology is wrecking throughout society. It also ignores the impact of climate change and overpopulation which is driving regional conflicts, resulting in population movements, including into the 1st world, which is creating more pressures and conflicts within the class most impacted by it all: the poor.

by Anonymousreply 2Last Friday at 11:06 PM

Which, R2, will make things even worse.

We are fucked. Find a place to hide.

by Anonymousreply 3Last Friday at 11:18 PM

[quote]the damage of identity ideology is wrecking throughout society

The word you're looking for is "wreaking."

Not that I expect an anti-trans, anti-Markle racist who is always screaming about "liberals" and "SJWs" to know the difference.

There are a host of enormous problems facing almost every country on the planet right now. To equate one of the most difficult -- climate change -- with "identity politics" is psychotic.

by Anonymousreply 4Last Friday at 11:25 PM

R2 if you read the entire essay he talks about the non elite classes too. Ie working class etc.

I have yet to digest the entire piece but thought I'd say that.

by Anonymousreply 5Last Friday at 11:25 PM

There's an Ignore button you know R4. But stalking other posters, while it obviously makes your clit hard, only makes you look even more deranged.

by Anonymousreply 6Last Friday at 11:48 PM

Mars is the ticket, bitches!

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by Anonymousreply 7Last Saturday at 1:25 AM

Pretty sure it says the same shit most of us have already figured out, yes?

Bottom line: we no longer have lots of time to change things and make slow, incremental progress.

Either we all take climate change seriously, or most of us who have children or young relatives, can almost be certain that those kids will not make it to our current age, and if they do, they will wish they had not.

by Anonymousreply 8Last Saturday at 2:55 AM

I keep telling y'all we're in the initial stages of a Civil War, and I get called a troll. It's 1860 in America right now.

by Anonymousreply 9Last Saturday at 2:58 AM

R9, no, we are not. It’s actually worse than that.

by Anonymousreply 10Last Saturday at 3:11 AM

Mother Earth is fixing to oust us and the Creator is filing nails and egging her on from the sidelines.

by Anonymousreply 11Last Saturday at 3:17 AM

[bold] Datalounge. Where the glass is always half empty.

by Anonymousreply 12Last Saturday at 3:20 AM

And let me add the following: while climate change is definitely in our horizon, many other things are as well.

by Anonymousreply 13Last Saturday at 3:22 AM

r7 The situation is now so bad people are considering a one way death ticket to Elon Musks kleptocratic frozen colony on Mars. At least the Pilgrim fathers didn't have to put up with bone decay, or Golden Idols of Grimes.

by Anonymousreply 14Last Saturday at 3:26 AM

What is with The Atlantic lately? They’ve been publishing nothing but hand-wringing “its the end of the world” articles for months now.

by Anonymousreply 15Last Saturday at 3:27 AM

r12 OurMillennialElderhater gets out the [bold]bold[/bold].

by Anonymousreply 16Last Saturday at 3:31 AM

There's definitely more angry people about. I've also noticed more people I know have zoned out with regard to the news, and retreated to their own bubbles. "I only take The Times now to do the crossword puzzle," said a friend. "Why bother? The news is only of ranting silly students and other nutters with no anchor in their lives now that Faith has gone. All they've got to pass the time is video games and Netflix and the social media target of the day." I had to agree, but said that in the past elites had offered some moral guidance. Now it's as if they're standing back too, and have said 'fuck it', we can't be bothered with this mindless venting.

by Anonymousreply 17Last Saturday at 4:43 AM

R17 The journey within, i.e., the meditative or contemplative path, is so integral during these turbulent times. I cannot take much of the “content” that is heaped on and thrust upon us; aside from being variations of the same recycled shit, with a rare exception or two, it gives me a headache.

The only way we’re going to get through this shit is by withdrawing, considering and contemplating the important shifts and measures of life, developing compassion for all beings, and acting accordingly.

Phew, we have a long road ahead of us.

by Anonymousreply 18Last Saturday at 4:49 AM

Wait, you're telling me there will be artists even worse than Lizzo, Ariana, Sam Smith, Halsey, etc????

by Anonymousreply 19Last Saturday at 5:00 AM

In previous centuries, the malcontents could ship off to frontier lands and start up their own societies, or just be alone. Now, the whole world is an overpopulated sewer with few decent countries to escape to. And globalists are making sure those handful of decent places are to be swamped with the masses from the rest of the world. The future looks ugly.

by Anonymousreply 20Last Saturday at 5:08 AM

R15 It drives up traffic and they're desperate for views.

by Anonymousreply 21Last Saturday at 6:26 AM
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