Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances

The Electoral College should be abolished.

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Yeah we know OP, but we’re increasingly confident BECAUSE of Joe Biden’s prospects of winning in the electoral college, not in spite of it. So this isn’t really eye-opening. Those of us who have been with Joe from the very beginning knew that he was the candidate best positioned to give us some of the old white rust belters in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that would grant him the 270 electoral votes for victory. In fact I’ve typed “Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin” so many times on Datalounge over the past three years that my iPhone autocompletes it for me in that exact order.

Nobody is looking at national polls exclusively, but of course the bigger his margins nationally the more chance we have of winning the electoral college so they do play a hand, too.

It makes me sick to think I live in a country where Plump could even stand a chance of reelection, considering how he comported himself, or didn't, during the first term.

OP's concern trolling is noted.

Trump isn't the underdog in this election. If anything Biden is.

No dog deserves comparison with Trump.

OP gets the Duh we knew that years ago award

I really hope Democrats have internalized the lessons of 2016. Hillary Clinton's strategy was to get 270, and she ignored important toss-up states to get there. To not only win, but to do so decisively (and dillute Trump's ability to delegitimize the election), Biden needs to fight as hard in Texas and Georgia as he does Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Yes, the electoral college favors Trump, but not enough for him to coast to victory.

[quote]It makes me sick to think I live in a country where Plump could even stand a chance of reelection, considering how he comported himself, or didn't, during the first term.

It made me sick to think I live in a country where he could have been elected the first time.

Me too. To Paraphrase Hillary, why isn’t Biden up by 30% right now?

More bad news for Trump: as Covid relief expires tomorrow, airlines plan to lay off tens of thousands of workers -- hitting swing states especially hard since AZ, PA, NC, FL + TX all have airport hubs.

So obvious Republicans could never win anything without tricks. They are a dying party and out of sync with America- and its future.

Pathetic that- even with all their shenanigans- they still can usually only manage a 50 > 49 "win".

BULLSHIT

Jesus, the Russians never quit. Biden is not Hillary! She lost because she ran a terrible campaign. The equation is different in 2020. Sexism doesn't play a part in this one. A criminal vs. a Statesman. The turnout to get rid of his daily bullshit will be huge.

"... she ignored important toss-up states to get there."

How did she "ignore" them, by not going to Wisconsin and kissing babies? Wasn't she on their ballot? Did they not know her and her policies?

She probably would have done better in a 2020 race where- due to Covid- people don't expect you to go to 3 states a day, make the same tired speech and wave at people.

I hope future campaigns are all done via TV, remotely.

I'm certainly not counting any chickens. but look at electoral-vote.com which currently gives Biden 323 to Trump's 180, with 35 tied (FL and IA). Even if we give Trump all of the states that are presently "Lean Democrat" - OH, NH, AZ, NC and both of the tossups, that only gets him to 263. If he gets the extra congressional district in Maine, he's still only up to 264.

PA is my big worry, more because of shenanigans than a lack of support, but even without it Biden has several paths. Trump has to win all of the tied states, all of the leaning Democrat states, and at least one strong Democrat state.

I also predict that tonight's debate will be the only presidential debate of this cycle. We shall see.

[QUOTE] I also predict that tonight's debate will be the only presidential debate of this cycle. We shall see.

Oh, interesting. Can you say anything more about that?

I suspect it's not going to go well for Trump. According to the news, he has done no preparation because he feels he doesn't need to, he can just get up there and do his thing. His strategy has been to paint Biden as a dottering old man with dementia, which Joe Biden may be many things but he's not that. He can't go after Biden for supposedly raping that woman whose case was so flimsy even Gloria Alred wouldn't touch it because that will reflect back on the 22+ credible accusations against him, he can't talk about Biden sniffing little girls' hair without talking about how he likes to walk through the dressing rooms at teen beauty pageants. So that's out.

He has no audience to play to, he has no escape except to stand there and be quiet while the other guy rips into him. He's going to spend the whole night jumping in when it's not his turn, and he's going to bluster and turn red and hurl invective because there's no substance. And then after he'll complain about how it was rigged, how it was totally unfair to him, how it proves the media is totally in the bag for Biden and he won't go along with it. A fair debate he'd agree to. After tonight, he will claim that the debates aren't fair and he won't do any more.

Just a hypothesis. It's more that I want bragging rights if it turns out to be true than I think for sure it will happen. But as I said, we shall see.

[quote]According to the news, he has done no preparation because he feels he doesn't need to, he can just get up there and do his thing.

This is what Trump and his spokesmonkeys are saying to lower expectations. In reality, Trump has been doing some level of debate prep with Chris Christie and Rudy Giuilani. The prep likely won't do much because Trump's addled brain can't focus but they have prepared "flash cards" for him to study.

[quote]He has no audience to play to

There will be about 80 people in the audience. His supporters will no doubt be whooping and hollering to encourage him.

Well at least there's somebody who learned something from 2016.

R9 Why are Dems so hyper focused on Texas? It won't happen. Better to collect several smaller states.

I also think this is going to be the only debate.

I think that Plump will make this first one so unproductive and unruly that Biden is forced to cancel the last two.

That is what they want Biden to do so plump doesn’t look like the wussy that he is.

Yeah, Texas is expensive as fuck! Houston, Dallas and San Antonio? Nah, less expressive to market in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Lansing.... Arizona and Georgia's electoral votes are worth working for. But Texas is a pipe dream. Bloomberg has Florida. Ohio and Iowa are others that may be worth the effort.

Who the fuck are these Electoral College fucksticks? Why aren't we allowed to know their names and addresses? Fucking cabalistic "government."

R25 Freely available information, hun. Ask Google.

I also think this will be the sole debate. Trump will behave the same as he did in the debates with Hillary. Rude interjections, alternately spouting lies and gibberish, too many for his opponent to address and ignored by the moderators who are more concerned with the next question, not if he answered the previous one.

Hillary was constrained because while she could be firm, she could not be mean or sarcastic like Trump. Nor tough or risk being labeled a ball breaker. Biden’s rep is the genial good guy (just ask Lindsey Graham).

This debate will not be about facts or program details, it will be about who can be the most reassuring about the future. Trump aims for using hate and fear to get rid of the Other and restore some mythical America. Biden will be optimistic, a rising tide lifts all boats. People are tired of being afraid.

The Hill: The latest Quinnipiac University poll finds Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a narrow lead over President Trump in Georgia, which has not gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in nearly 30 years.

I suspect Trump will throw a strop and storm off tonight.

The ugly truth is that the debate will be boring and awkward with some tepid attempts at sassy jabs by both candidates. They'll talk over each other and huff about being interrupted and nothing interesting will be discussed.

[quote] In fact I’ve typed “Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin” so many times on Datalounge over the past three years

Really? On Datalounge??

NYT's Kathy Gray:

Number of ballots requested in Michigan so far this year: 2,556,166. That's a 350% increase over 2016.

If by some miracle Trump ends up with more electoral votes, I can only hope that there will be many "faithless electors" with enough integrity to not vote for him.

[quote]More bad news for Trump: as Covid relief expires tomorrow, airlines plan to lay off tens of thousands of workers -- hitting swing states especially hard since AZ, PA, NC, FL + TX all have airport hubs.

Here's some more: Disney to lay off 28,000 workers at domestic theme parks

Biden's ahead in all the key swing states. Joe Biden will win and the Dems will take the Senate.

Um, yeah, 2016 ring a bell?

I largely agree with R19. Nothing Trump says can move opinion anymore; he never had any imagination, and his tactics of surprise and aggressiveness have become tired. Nothing he's done has moved public opinion in months. He tried authoritarian ruthlessness on the protesters; his poll numbers went down and then went up when he backed off. If he tries branding Biden as drugged out or senile with Biden standing there smiling and shaking his head the accusations will bounce back on Trump in the worst way—whereas Trump's failure at business, his half-billion dollar debt to parties unknown, and his sketchy tax returns are fresh material for Biden.

This isn't a debate; Clinton was probably wrong to treat it as one last time. It's just an opportunity for more campaigning. Biden's task is to motivate the anti-Trump vote and mop up the very few remaining fence-sitters.

They need those Blue Wall States each won by a handful of votes. Sadly for the R's they're down by many times what they need there. Senate should be easy for them, but they're now in some danger of losing AK and SC, let alone ME, CO, NC and AZ (as likely Dem) and tossup IA, GA (both!), MT and TX.

The underdog argument may have helped him in 2016, but not in 2020.