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New Virginia Poll: Biden 53%-Trump 39% (+14 pts.)

New Virginia polling by Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs (Douglas Wilder was the nation's first Black governor) as follows. According to, this polling outfit scores a B/C grade and a mean-reverted bias of R+0.2 points.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and Senator Mark Warner are ahead of their opponents by double-digit margins – Biden by 14 points (53%-39%) and Warner by 17 points (55%-38%). This compares to an 11-point lead (50%-39%) for Biden in July.

In the presidential race, women were more likely to prefer Biden over Trump by 22 percentage points (58%-36%) and men prefer Biden over Trump by a smaller margin of 5 points (47%-42%). This represents a shift for men, who were more likely to say they would vote for Trump in a poll released by the Wilder School in July.

Regionally, Biden has large leads in South Central Virginia (65%-22%), Northern Virginia (59%-32%) and Tidewater (56%-33%) and Trump has large leads over Biden in the West (63%-36%) and Northwest (58%-36%).

Independents are breaking toward Biden by 8 percentage points (46%-38%), with 14% remaining undecided.

In the U.S. Senate race, gender and region followed the same trend as the presidential race. And Warner enjoys a greater level of support from independents, with a 16-percentage point lead over his GOP challenger Gade (54%-38%).

Seven in 10 Virginians (70%) say the selection of Harris for vice president will have no impact on their decision to vote for Biden; 16% said it would make them more likely to vote for him, while 13% say it will make them less likely.

Virginians are split on whether mail-in votes will be accurately cast and counted. Half of respondents (50%) said they are very or somewhat confident that, across the country, mail-in votes for president will be accurately cast and counted, while 48% said they are not too or not at all confident. Democrats were more likely to trust the process with 68% being very or somewhat confident.

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by Anonymousreply 2Last Wednesday at 8:36 AM

I don't think Virginia is too much of a concern compared to PA, WI, MI, MN, FL, AZ. They have a Dem trifecta already.

by Anonymousreply 1Last Wednesday at 8:23 AM


That's not even close for a state that has only tilted Democratic in recent years.

by Anonymousreply 2Last Wednesday at 8:36 AM
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