Voting is underway in North Carolina

NC is 15X ahead of same day 2016 totals for absentee by mail ballots

By party registration:

Reg Republicans: 7X ahead

Reg Unaffiliated: 17X ahead

Reg Democrats: 21X ahead

Numbers & percentages for comparison between 2016 & 2020 same day totals

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC requests for absentee by mail ballots running 15X ahead of 2016's same day totals

Based on model, if NC requests continue at 15X, potential 1.7M requests (1/4 of all registered NC voters) could come in by end of September

10/27 deadline to request NC ABM

#ncpol #ncvotes

I hate people who complain and don’t vote - I feel a huge portion of protestors are included.

@Politics_Polls @Rasmussen_Poll Average of NC polls since Aug 30: Biden +0.8

Range: Trump +2 to Biden +4

A toss up.

EDITORIAL NOTE ON NC VOTING:

Ballots were mailed out a week ago. Note how exponential the rise is in returned ballots - and this is only one state:

9/8: 112 9/9: 1373 (+1261) 9/10: 4487 (+3114) 9/11: 10380 (+5893) 9/12: 19979 (+9599)

Less than one week until Virginia starts voting! Here's what you need to know ⬇️

Among NC requested absentee by mail ballots:

Registered Democrats: 51% Reg Unaffiliated: 32% Reg Republicans: 17%

Among NC returned & accepted ABM ballots:

Reg Dems: 58% Reg Unaff: 29% Reg Reps: 13%

Overall acceptance rate: nearly 3% of 780K requests

#ncpol #ncvotes

BREAKING - A mixup with the first absentee ballots sent in North Carolina caused some voters to receive two identical ballots for the November general election, according to election officials

I told them they can vote twice!

President @realDonaldTrump will visit Charlotte on Thursday. This is his 14th visit to North Carolina. Biden hasn’t been there at all during the general campaign season

In person campaign events are important to get-out-the vote and new voter registration efforts. In 2020, Republicans have added nearly twice as many new voters in North Carolina as Democrats.

But both parties have been eclipsed by new voters registering with neither party (Unaffiliated) #ncpol #ncga

We often complain about the short attention span of American voters in media, but sometimes it works in our favor. Who is thinking about Kenosha right now?

Biden and Harris need to make appearances here in NC. As an update to the adectotal evidence (yard signs) I mentioned in other threads, I am still not seeing nearly as many as I did in 2016. I do see a few people flying Trump flags. I don't remember if I saw any back then. Still, displays of support for the traitor is down significantly from 2016.

North Carolina's absentee by mail ballot numbers through 9-21:

Requested: 949,895

Returned & processed: 156,980

Accepted as votes for Nov. 3 general election: 153,452

#ncpol #ncvotes

By @jmartNYT: "12% of GOP voters in NC indicated in a NYTimes-Siena College poll last week that they were undecided in the Senate race, about twice the share of Democrats who were uncertain about Tillis’s lesser-known Democratic rival..." #ncpol #ncsen

Why are people having trouble completing the affidavit part of the mail-in ballot?

Not sure but we need a massive education campaign to preclude it from recurring

NC absentee by mail ballots returned & accepted thru 9-22:

Daily totals & daily cumulative totals of accepted ballots

As of today, 2020's NC ABM accepted ballots = 88.5% of 2016's total ABM accepted ballots (~200K)

#ncpol #ncvotes

North Carolina's absentee by mail ballot #s through 9-22: a data thread

Requested: 971,631

Returned & processed: 176,898 (18.2% of requested)

Accepted/cured for votes for Nov. 3 general election: 173,299 (98% of returned)

#ncpol #ncvotes

R17 because this is the dumbest first world county by a wide margin.

Drop-boxes are still not approved for depositing NC absentee by mail ballots, but the ballot will *not* be disapproved if one is placed in a drop-box location.

wow, they/ethnics dont vote much huh.....how cum?

How do they know whose ballot is white and whose is black?

Based on name or zip code or what?

Voters report racial and sex when registering

There are going to be huge problems with undereducated populations being able to understand the logistics of vote by mail, usually set up for college students, The military, and expats.

VOTING IN STATES WITH PARTISAN REGISTRATION (9/23) Florida: 3,236 (56-25% Dem) Iowa: 189 (57-22% Dem) North Carolina: 173,301 (55-16% Dem) Those numbers are eerily similar and point to turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm. And these are VOTES, not BALLOT REQUESTS.

NC ACCEPTED/REJECTED VOTES, 9/23 1. 173,301/177,132, or 98% of all returned ballots accepted 2. 55-16-29% Dem/Rep/Ind of 173,301 accepted ballots 3. 61-15-24% Dem/Rep/Ind of 3,831 rejected ballots

BREAKING🚨:In case you missed the BIG North Carolina news! In guidance/consent decree, state AGREES to:

✅Count ALL ballots postmarked by EDay & received by 11/12 ✅Allow voters to correct their rejected mail ballots ✅Establish ballot drop-off stations

Some good news, R29. Thanks.

Biden was In North Carolina today

65 million mail ballots have been requested or sent to voters

370,000 already voted

We’re not going to “get rid of the ballots.” We’re going to vote in record numbers to counter the unprecedented suppression we’re seeing

So this will be Trump's 14th attempt to kill North Carolinians, r10?

BALLOTS GO OUT IN MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA TOMORROW

I don’t know why voter ID is such a controversial thing. You have to sign up for ABC.com and confirm your email address to vote on Dancing with the fucking Stars. If you can’t get your shit together enough to get a driver’s license or a state ID, I don’t trust you to make an educated decision. Of course both sides want to exploit it.

Similarly, if you can’t figure out how to fill out a simple document, I don’t care if your vote is rejected.

Is NC a shithole?

Shut up r35. Go to Breitbart

[quote]7% of Black/African American voters did not submit correct witness info (name, address, signature). All voters with this deficiency will be sent new ballot & instructions:

Goddammit, people -- triple-check your voter status and read the fucking ballot instructions! You had 4 years to figure this shit out, for fuck's sake!

EARLY VOTING (MAIL + IN PERSON) BY DAY (9/24):

9/19: 117500, 55-16% Dem/Rep 9/20: 158500, 55-16% Dem/Rep 9/21: 164100, 55-16% Dem/Rep 9/22: 235100, 55-16% Dem/Rep 9/23: 330400, 55-16% Dem/Rep 9/24: 447200, 55-16% Dem/Rep

North Carolina's absentee by mail ballot #s through 9-24: a data thread

Requested: 1,028,648

Returned & processed: 227,761 (22% of requested so far)

Accepted/cured for votes for Nov. 3 general election: 221,586 (97% of returned)

#ncpol #ncvotes

They need to visit this site first, to get a pass code.

R17 & R38 - There are many voters that are voting by mail for the first time and don't realize that they need to sign the ballot. Also, people don't look at the entire ballot and just assume that all entries are on one side.

This is the part where the Democrats should've taken time to explain mail in ballots.

Robeson is a fascinating county, representing the Lumbee tribe (of which I'm from). Lumbee's as a whole are socially conservative, and economically populist. This has been the perfect recipe for the county to vote for Trump in 2016. It still votes D down-ballot more than R, but the county has been trending to R's in voting behaviors along with voter registration. It'll definitely be a battleground in 2020, and either Biden or Trump can win, but we won't see the blowout margins Obama got in '08 and '12, for a long time, if ever, for D's.

r42 Think about it. Where were Democrats supposed to be taking time to explain? You think the people who don't bother to read directions are going to the internet or youtube to read more about how the process works? You think they subscribe to newspapers? You think they watch the news? (tons of people don't even have TV anymore.) There are no good ways to reach people. You think they take the time to read the political mail avalanche that comes in and then read the details of the "how to vote" one from Democrats?

We’ve reached one million!

As of today, 1,048,100 Minnesotans have requested an absentee ballot to vote from home.

Same date in 2018: 101,161 Same date in 2016: 78,216

Amazing!

Update: Virginia in-person votes are at 164,000 already (and 44,000 mail-in votes have already been received).

That’s nearly half the entire in-person turnout of 2016.

Early voting’s been open for 1 week.

Well, the directions seem very difficult. For some people.

People there are dumb as rocks if they can't follow simple directions.

Minnesota is killing it. One out of three voters already have requested absentee ballots

OP? I doubt Joe Biden is counting on winning North Carolina.

They are running ads 4 to 1 against trump.

Good

Glad Joe visited NC this week. He needs to gonthrre every week. Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh-Durham. Obama even went to Asheville

....

AP: Black voters are among the least likely to vote by mail nationally, but there are early signs they are changing their behavior as the shadow of the coronavirus hangs over the presidential race. The evidence is clearest in North Carolina, the first state in the nation to send out mail-in ballots and where voting has been underway for almost three weeks. But there are hints in other battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania.

The signal are good news for Democrats, who will need a robust turnout by Black voters in these states to win both the White House and control of the U.S. Senate. With coronavirus increasing the risk of in-person voting, African American mail voting rates are one indicator of whether that key part of the Democratic coalition will participate at its regular clip.

In North Carolina, Black voters cast 16.7% of the more than 173,000 ballots returned so far, a jump from the 9% of mail votes cast by Black voters in 2016. They are 21% of North Carolina’s registered voters.

But the numbers also come with a warning sign. North Carolina’s Black voters are four times more likely than whites to have their ballots not yet accepted due to missing witness information. Just under 5% of absentee ballots returned by Black voters either still have missing witness information or are in the process of having ballot requirements corrected, compared with just 1.3% of ballots returned by white voters.

It is, of course, very early — the votes so far in North Carolina translate to only about 5% of those cast in the entire 2016 presidential election. It’s unclear how much Black voters’ early embrace of the new method will increase overall turnout and whether issues will persist as more votes roll in.

Alarmed by the not-accepted figures, Democratic-leaning groups are already shifting their messaging to help Black voters resolve the witness requirements. North Carolina made this process easier on Tuesday, settling a lawsuit from the North Carolina Alliance for Retired Americans seeking to ease absentee guidelines on the state’s witness component. County boards of elections now mail an affidavit for a voter to return to resolve ballot problems. Both Republicans on the state’s five-person Board of Elections resigned after the settlement.

The North Carolina Democratic Party and Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s campaign have established hotlines for confused voters. Both groups also have volunteers working on the ground to help people remedy witness issues.

Tonya Foreman, an activist whose group CAREE has been registering people to vote in barbershops and a pop-up registration tent in the eastern part of the state, worries that some of these Black voters, already deeply suspicious of a system they see as rigged against them, “will just decide ‘I knew it’ and not fix their ballots.”

Foreman has seen shifts in Black voters’ interest and trust in voting by mail, saying it seemed high last spring but then tapered off after controversy over mail delays due to changes at the United States Postal Service.

Black voters have traditionally preferred to vote in-person and see their ballot being accepted, a certainty sought after generations of voter suppression, discrimination and fighting to win the right to vote. In 2018, only 11% of African American voters cast their ballots by mail compared with 24% of white voters, according to the U.S. Census.

But Black people have been disproportionately killed by the coronavirus, and many older Black Americans are now trying to balance safety with their rights, said Marcus Bass, an activist with the group Advance Carolina.

“The most faithful bloc of voters are older Black voters,” Bass said.

Still, Bass’ group has acquired 250,000 pieces of protective gear because he thinks many Black voters will want to vote in-person again.

There are hints of the shift in other data on mail voting. In Georgia, about one-third of all absentee ballot requests so far have come from African Americans, slightly higher than their share of registered voters, said Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst. In Pennsylvania, 7.38% have — which is also precisely the Black share of that state’s electorate.

This is a pretty interesting chart:

Of NC's 7M+ registered voters, 15% of them have requested an absentee by mail ballot

20% of registered Democrats have requested

9% of registered GOP have requested

#ncpol #ncvotes

To my fellow NC voters, there are 5 weeks left until election day. Here is a summary prepared from data published by

@NCSBE

: (1) about 250,000 ballots have already been returned (2) around 75% of requested absentee ballots have not been returned

We’re all thinking about Kenosha right now and we’re thinking that Kenosha makes Trump look bad and we support BLM.

That’s why Biden got a poll bounce in Wisconsin after Kenosha.

NC is doing a great job with early voting and absentee access

Already 20 percent voter turnout in Falls Church, Virginia for November. Election Day is 5 weeks from tomorrow

North Carolina: 275,144 early voters cast - nearly 4% of eligible voters. By party affiliation: Democrats - 147,366 Republicans - 45,701 Unaffiliated - 81.290

R48 Thanks for weighing in. It's important for people to say stuff like what you said so that you can be corrected. It's easy to say that if people are stupid and they can't follow directions, their votes shouldn't count. It feels good to say that. But when you have people voting in a new way, there needs to be leeway for them to get it right. If 7% of black voters and 3% of white voters are having their ballots rejected for mistakes, you can't just throw that out when 100% of people who walk into a voting booth aren't held to the same standard.

In Pennsylvania Trump has fought for "naked ballots" to be thrown out. Ballots come with two envelopes--one is for privacy, one is for mailing. Lots of people don't use the privacy envelope. The rules say the ballots must be in the privacy envelope. To throw out an American's vote in a swing state because they didn't realize that the privacy envelope was mandatory is fucked up because again, voters who go to the polls aren't held to that standard. Some people reading this post won't even understand exactly what I'm talking about, not because its confusing but because I'm using words and paragraphs to describe two different envelopes. In America, we should be counting the votes. The only reason Trump and Republicans took this to court is because they wanted elderly black people's votes to be thrown away.

My suburban DC county Board of Elections sent me my ballot today--I could send it in tomorrow, so no need to wait for an October Surprise.

Also on the ballot for a throwaway vote: Green Party, Libertarian, and Bread and Roses (whatever the hell that is).

EARLY VOTING OLYMPICS", 9/30 EDITION (Gold) 427K in VA (11% of 2016 vote) (Silver) 309K in WI (10% of 2016 vote) (Bronze) 280K in NC (6% of 2016 vote) Given that FL surged from 33 to 131K yesterday, I would not be surprised to see it become an "Olympic contender" tomorrow.

Stats

If you are planning to vote by ballot, please don't FUCK it up and read the instructions carefully. NO DOLTS please.

Stats

Check out the line for early voting today in Fairfax County! 👀

Is it normal for an absentee ballot to have the word "provisional" on it?

10/1/2020 PRE ELECTION DAY REPORT - Source data from @ElectProject,@Dansing34, and @Umichvoter99)

(1) 67.4M mail in requests (+1565K). 43-26% Dem/Rep (includes all VBM request states) (2) 2.05M (+440K) have voted - 1628K mail/420K in person. 53-23% Dem/Rep (1/2)

More than 2 million people have already voted in 2020 election. Registered Dems returned 2.5x many ballots as GOP in FL, IA, MD, NC, NJ, PA

Numbers:

VA - 482,000 WI - 350,000 NC - 305,000 FL - 237,000 GA - 133,000 MI - 133,000 NJ - 88,000 IL - 83,000

I'm one of the 2 million. I put my ballot in a drop box on 30 Sep. No need to wait for an October Surprise.

(I'm "Unaffiliated" but voted for the 2 human(e) beings on the ballot).

and look at some trends within the data.

The fact that almost 1.1 million registered North Carolina voters have requested an absentee by mail ballot is truly amazing (through 9-27, the exact number is 1,076,247 requests), considering that in all of 2016, the total requests for an absentee by mail ballot was a little over 231,000.

20 percent--or one in five--of all registered Democrats have requested an absentee ballot, compared to under 10 percent of registered Republicans, with registered Unaffiliated voters exactly between the two, at almost 15 percent of their total registered voters. Of the ballots returned and accepted, 3.5 percent of NC's registered voters have made up their minds and cast their vote choices. In other words, the election is over for these voters, even before the first presidential debate was held.

We'd rather stand in a long line, and we ain't wearing no durn masks!, to vote for the greatest President that ever lived. Voting by mail is corrupt and only for lazy pussies.

Biden needs to visit NC more. Hillary was doing better in polls at this point than Biden is, yet lost the state by almost five points

R64, I'm in PA. There would be no envelope confusion if the outer envelope DIDN'T HAVE OUR PARTY AFFILIATION STAMPED ON JT!

THAT is why we need a second, inside envelope---to protect the privacy of any out-of-Party votes.

Jon Ralston: "The Democratic machine started moving the needle in Clark again this week – the Dems have gained close to 1,500 since Monday – but the GOP hopes to get the rural vote as high as possible, so the small county margins could be meaningful."

Look at these returned vote by mail numbers in Florida. @FlaDems +91,340 vote advantage.

DEM: 184,552 (7.6% return rate) GOP: 93,212 (5.6%) N/3/I: 64,119

Total: 341,877

In 2016, this far out from E-Day, GOP held +1,304 advantage with only 7,487 mail ballots returned.

‼️ FLORIDA early voting by mail - returned ballots by party affiliation:

Democrats - 244,806 Republicans - 126,799 No Party - 80,067

Must win state where Trump encouraged his supporters to vote.

3,150,000 Americans have already voted - a record.

Of the 3.6M voters having casted an early ballot thus far, 490k, or 13.5% didn't vote in 2016.

Of the 347k black voters who have cast a ballot thus far, 16% didn't vote in 2016.

Breaking: The US Supreme Court has reinstated the witness signature requirement for South Carolina absentee ballots. A lower court had put this requirement on hold due to Covid-19.

Ballots already sent in and received by October 7th will not be subject to the witness requirement

Not as bad as it could have been

Apologies for the late daily update but my 3rd born had a birthday that I had to get home for.

#FallsChurch turnout update for 10/5

3,345 ballots cast is 31.6%

We have a new denominator with total active population at 10,587

In the newest tally of vote by mail ballots in Florida, Democrats hold a 174,647 returned ballot advantage as of Tuesday morning.

Republicans: 197,449 Democrats: 372,096 Other: 131,393

Data: @ElectProject bT

Please follow instructions carefully! Read them carefully!

A national Reuters/Ipsos poll taken last week found 5% of Democrats nationwide said they had already voted compared to 2% of Republicans. About 58% of Democrats planned to vote early compared to 40% of Republicans.

Ohio Republicans tried to deter Democratic voters, but on the first day of early voting, Dems turned out in record numbers. #earlyvoting #Ohio

In Wisconsin, the number of first time voters has increased more than 8x relative to this same point in the '16 cycle. As of now, first-time voting Democrats have a modeled 3.4% advantage over GOPs, whereas at this point in '16 GOPs had an advantage of 7.6%.

Wisconsin and Virginia are at 20% of their total turnout in 2016.

Florida is at 11%.

🚨 From today’s General Registrar’s report in Fairfax County, VA: 62,400 ballots returned so far out of 220,000 mailed to date (28.4%). Early voting averaging 1,200 per day. “Significant” number of early voters requested mail ballots, thinking they had to apply to vote early.

Latest vote by mail from Florida:

DEM: 612,982 (24.4% returned) GOP: 337,927 (19.8) N/3/I: 227,123 (17.8)

TOTAL: 1,178,032

That's @FlaDems +275,055(!!) (+47,548 from yesterday)

At this point in '16, 104,607 ballots had been processed & GOP led +3,900. So 271k difference. NBD.

OREGON VOTER REGISTRATION (10/7)

2,924,292 (36% Dem, 26% Rep, 38% other) September: Dem +24899, Rep +19002, Other +11705 YTD: Dem +74206, Rep +49205, Other (7104)

While Reps for three months in a row outregistered Dems, Dems reversed that in September.

Early votes by this date in the presidential election...

2016 -- 429,337

2020 -- 6,802,413

(source: U.S. Elections Project, Prof. Michael McDonald, University of Florida)

35% of the requested NC absentee by mail ballots have been returned & accepted/cured

Differences among party registrations shows that registered Democrats have a 38% accepted rate so far, highest among party registration status

NC early voting stats.

NC has not yet begun in person voting

R99, did anyone say they have?

Shut your piehole r100

R101, R99 is the one who randomly brought it up.

@ElectProject WI, MN, and VA now all at 22% of 2016 turnout

Just a reminder.

Random thought: what if he's being so insistent on going back to doing rallies because he has something set up? That is, an attempted attack, all staged?

A presidential candidate in Taiwan was hurt by a gunman at a rally, and she survived and went on to the presidency. Some people say it was staged (it wasn't in this case, according to 99% of analyses).

He will do anything to stay in power

25 days feels like forever.

I know. I think next three weeks will be pure insanity

🚨Latest vote by mail from Florida 🚨

DEM: 707,505 (28.1% returned) GOP: 396,499 (22.8) N/3/I: 267,192 (20.7)

TOTAL: 1,371,196

That's @FlaDems + 311,006 (!!) (+35,951 from yesterday)

[quote] Random thought: what if he's being so insistent on going back to doing rallies because he has something set up? That is, an attempted attack, all staged?

[quote] A presidential candidate in Taiwan was hurt by a gunman at a rally, and she survived and went on to the presidency. Some people say it was staged (it wasn't in this case, according to 99% of analyses).

Oh Boris, you and your fear porn. 0/10.

Block me, R110. Fuck you.

An amazing trend continues:

As of today, 1,321,864 Minnesotans have applied to vote from home (and 601,094 of those ballots have already been accepted).

At this point in 2016, just 281,532 people had applied to vote at home.

Wow.

MINNESOTA EARLY VOTING:

1. 635K have voted, with over 3 weeks to go 2. In 2016, 676K was the TOTAL early vote

North Carolina Presidential Average Lead On Oct 9:

2008: Obama +1 2012: Romney +2.5 2016: Clinton +2.5 2020: Biden +2.8

Falls Church, VA is already at 50% of its *total* 2016 ballots cast. Neighboring Fairfax County, VA at just 17% b/c of its long early voting lines.

@skywalkerbeth A few other neighbor localities (% of total 2016 turnout):

Fairfax City: 37% Alexandria City: 36% Arlington Co.: 32% Loudoun Co.: 32% Prince William Co.: 27%

A large share of the Twin Cities have already voted: 24% of all registered voters in Hennepin County (Minneapolis), & 23% in Ramsey County (St Paul)

(It’s 15% in the rest of the state.)

my look at early voting in WI where 500k+ have voted already and mail voting is 10X higher than same pt 4 yrs ago. biggest surge is in very blue places -- above all Dane County. (1 village adjoining Madison has already reached 50%+ of its 2016 vote).

my look at early voting in WI where 500k+ have voted already and mail voting is 10X higher than same pt 4 yrs ago. biggest surge is in very blue places -- above all Dane County. (1 village adjoining Madison has already reached 50%+ of its 2016 vote).

Senate battleground - early voting - returned and accepted by party:

MAINE: Democrats - 56,623 Republicans- 16,623 No Party - 18,502

IOWA: D - 59,768 R - 23,247 No - 12,917

Support @SaraGideon and @GreenfieldIowa

8.9 million Americans have voted so far. Get out our vote!

As of the moment, 532k have voted in person and 442k by mail in Virginia, which is rapidly closing in on a million people having voted...and nearly one-fourth the 3.98 million who voted in 2016.

In the 2016 election, 146,294 Wisconsinites voted by mail, and 666,035 others voted at in-person early-voting sites. In the current election, 646,987 people have already voted absentee as of Friday.

NEW: Huge turnouts in absentee voting, especially in liberal hubs (Madison, Chapel Hill, Pittsburgh), suggest Democrats are building a big early lead.

Wisconsin in 2016 had 146k mail votes. In 2020, 647k people have already voted.

w/@NYTnickc @stefsaul

The Times is desperate to both-sides the candidates.

Pennsylvania‼️ - early voting by mail, returned and accepted ballots by party affiliation:

Democrats - 299,586 Republicans - 55,655 No Party - 28,030

Overwhelm them with the vote. Vote them ALL TF out! UP and down the ballot! Get out our vote!

More than half of the requested absentee ballots in Wisconsin had been returned as of today, three weeks and one day from Election Day:

Requested: 1.3 million Returned: 683,223

Dane County: 117,116 Milwaukee County: 109,184 Waukesha County: 54,433

VOTING BY GENDER:

Michigan - women: Biden 54-37 (+17) men: Biden 42-44 (-2)

Wisconsin - women: Biden 58-34 (+24) men: Biden 43-50 (-7)

Maybe sit this one out guys! SMDH!

NYT/Siena

@thecorpmex @AshLopezRadio @HoustonChron Which means going into the 2020 election TX has 938,796 more registered voters than in the 2018 election, where Beto lost to Cruz by 214,921 votes, with record hi midterm turnout. Since this expansion occurred mostly in the blue megametros, it sets up a blue wave, if they turnout

NPR reported this morning that 10 million people have already voted.

I'm happy to be one of them.

Over 10 million

Texas Gov. Abbott is a rat bastard. However, Harris County (Houston) is headed by Judge Lina Hidalgo, a young, vegan, Democratic Columbian immigrant in her first term. The Commissioners Court (they run things in Texas counties) had already made it possible in 2018 for Harris County residents to vote in any precinct. That means people don't have to rush home to vote on election day to vote in their home precinct; they can go to a polling place near their workplace. But it gets even better. This election, Harris County has nine drive-thru voting locations. And for one day, seven polling places will be open for 24 hour voting, 7 a.m. on Oct. 29 until 7 p.m. Oct. 30. One of those locations is in the Texas Medical Center, which runs 24/7, so it should be great for nurses and techs who work the overnight shift.

That's what an election looks like when the government [italic]wants[/italic] a representative turnout.

As of now, over 128,000 people voted in Harris County today! This is a historic day for us, that number is the highest turnout on a single day.

Polls will be open tomorrow from 7AM to 7PM. #HarrisVotes #Election2020

Excited to announce that as of today, with 3 weeks to go until the polls close ...

Over *1 million* Michigan citizens have already voted!

With over 2.8 million voters already requesting to vote early we are on track to see more Michiganders vote this fall than ever before. 🙌🏼

Get voting, NC!

More than 17,000 people voted today in Galveston County. The previous record for the 1st day of early voting was 11,022.

[bold]Federal Judge Dismisses Georgia Voters’ Suit Over Long Poll Lines[/bold]

ATLANTA (CN) — A federal judge in Georgia Tuesday dismissed a lawsuit brought by voters challenging long lines at the polls, finding that election officials have already made sufficient changes to shorten voting wait times in the state after a June 2020 primary in which some voters waited for hours to cast their ballots.

In a 78-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Michael Brown said the plaintiffs in the case cannot show that long lines at the polls on Election Day are “all but certain” to occur in Georgia. The judge cited voting system improvements made after a disastrous June primary election that left some voters waiting outside precincts into the late evening.

“The predictive value of Georgia’s past elections is simply too limited to tell us (with the requisite certainty) what will happen in November,” Brown wrote. “Georgia revamped its voting equipment and voting process in 2020, so elections before then reveal little about elections today.”

more at link

UPDATED EV NUMBERS SPOILER: With all the updates we've had today (and before I have GA, NC, TX, VA, and WI tomorrow morning), we're looking at: 84.6 million requests (+472K) 13.6 million votes (+1749K, or 10.9% of the 2016 vote)

@HoltMLackey On this date in 2016: 49,867 total NC absentee by mail ballots returned and accepted

Today in 2020: 505,945 returned and accepted total to date

This AM, these states have already surpassed 20% of 2016 turnout 🥳, per @ElectProject):

Florida (20%) Minnesota (21%) Wyoming (21%) North Dakota (21%) Michigan (22%) Wisconsin (24%) New Jersey (24%) South Dakota (25%) Virginia (27%) Vermont (30%)

Florida mail vote update 10.15.20:

Police cars revolving light

@FlaDems

+420,119

Police cars revolving light

(+17,444 from yesterday) DEM: 1,043,514 (40.5% returned) GOP: 623,395 (35) N/3/I: 425,222 (31.7) TOTAL: 2,092,131

North Carolina Presidential Polling: Biden (D) 51% Trump (R): 46% Civiqs / October 14, 2020 / n=1211 / Online

Harris had to cancel two events in NC:

[quote] Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), Biden’s running mate, has canceled travel plans until Monday after two people involved with the campaign tested positive for the coronavirus.

I wish Michelle Obama would come to NC.

New Washoe County numbers show 30K have returned ballots -- more than 10 percent of active voters already. Dems still dominating: D - 54% R - 24% O - 22% Dems increase raw vote to lead there to about 9K. Washoe is about even in voter reg. Follow

@TheNVIndy

Colorado turnout now over 293,000 which is bonkers. 46% D, 33% U, 19% R. Obviously, this will even out to some degree. But in an all mail state where every voter gets a ballot, it shows a very real enthusiasm gap

@TheNVIndy Washoe has almost doubled its mail ballot return for the entire 2016 election and Clark has almost equaled its entire mail ballot return for 2016.

It's Oct. 15.

This is a different year in NV. We will know Saturday how much this has affected early voting turnout.

Foreshadowing.

🔥🔥As of 3:30 pm today, in NC, a staggering 170,320 in-person absentee votes had been cast. This is in addition to the 533,000+ votes that have already been cast by mail. Record setting election in progress! Keep it up NC! #ncpol #VOTE #VoteEarly 🔥🔥

Oct. 15 Final numbers for the third day of early voting in Harris County, Texas: 105,175 people voted early in person 6,260 mail ballots were returned 111,435 = total number of early voters on Day 3. 398,966 = total of early voters for Day 1 + Day 2 + Day 3. #khou #HTownRush

18.7 million people have already voted. 2.5 million voted just today. 56% of those early voters are Democrats. 24% are Republicans.

Voters have cast a total of 21,397,135 ballots in the reporting states.

The first day of early voting in Colorado saw a 2377% increase in turnout compared to 2016.

A record day for early voting in Mecklenburg County. More than 35,000 people voted on Thursday. The first day of early #voting in North Carolina.

Via @gtryan and Georgia Votes: "So far in the 2020 general election, 1,125,730 people have voted. At this point in the 2016 general election, that number was 446,733. Total turnout for the 2020 general election is 152% higher."

So many of these numbers are useless. Of course there's double or more absentee ballots occurring than there were in 2016. There's a pandemic. These are not apples to apples comparisons. All it shows is that Biden is turning out his vote.

Minnesota: Early voting is highest, generally speaking, in counties where Donald Trump did worse four years ago. Around 1/3 of registered voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties have already voted.

Read and follow instructions, damn it.

[quote] Of the 3.6M voters having casted an early ballot thus far, 490k, or 13.5% didn't vote in 2016.

Oh, dear.

Why would anyone need a witness? Aren’t witnesses for people who are disabled?

R158, it's called voter suppression.

Here's an update for Maricopa County EV Returns.

All: 297,334

D: 133,389 44.8% R: 96,797 32.5% O: 67,148 22.5%

UPDATE: Travis County breaks early voting record for third day in a row, with 39,227 ballots cast Thursday

Tennesseans shatter first day early voting record. By the close of polls yesterday, 273,325 voters had cast their ballot in Tennessee. Voter turnout is 91% higher than the first day of early voting in 2016 and 120% higher than 2012.

Arizona Update: Dems have a remarkable 15 pt lead among early voters thus far, compared to 5pts at this point in the 2016 election.

Vermont becomes the first state where 2020 #earlyvote is ;40% of their 2016 *total* turnout 👀👀

Nationally, at least 22.6 million people have voted in the 2020 general election

Nationally, voters have cast 16.4% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

#Breaking: North Carolina breaks one million votes with 15 days of Early Voting and Election Day in the 2020 General still to go. (For reference, NC has nearly 7.3 million voters.) #ncpol

NEWS: We now have NV statewide mail ballots returned AND accepted for counting: 105,124 or 6 percent Dems -- 56,652 or 54 percent Rs -- 25,041 or 24 percent Others -- 23,431 or 22 percent

#earlyvote day-end update 10/16

At least 24.2 million people have voted in the 2020 general election

Top NC counties early voting as a Percentage of total registered voters

"Young people of color make up about 70 percent of those newly eligible voters in California and Nevada, two-thirds in Texas, three-fifths in Arizona, and about 55 percent in Georgia, Florida, New York, and North Carolina." by @RonBrownstein

Florida mail vote update 10.17.20:

@FlaDems +459,095 (+15,767 from yesterday)

DEM: 1,185,892 (45.7% returned) GOP: 726,797 (40.5) N/3/I: 500,603 (36.9)

TOTAL: 2,413,292

Mail ballots yet to be returned/processed:

DEM: 1,409,780 GOP: 1,069,642 N/3/I: 857,565

Thru Fri 10/16 NC has 1,248,885 accepted ballots: 592,175 mail, 656,710 in-person early (17.1% of 7,292,471 reg voters and 26.2% of 4,769,640 2016 turnout). Thursday in-person early adjusted up by 11,853 to 344,987 due to late reports and same day reg processing. #ncpol /1

This is pretty amazing. The number of unmarried women voting in PA already is more than 10 times what it was at this point in 2016. They now account for 1 out of 3 votes cast, and Dems lead among these voters by 69 points, accounting for a lead of over 150,000 votes.

.#FloridaForBiden

Early mail in voting by party affiliation

Democrats. 1, 185, 982 Republicans. 726, 727 No Party 472,536

In Person voting starts Monday. The State is a toss-up!

Retweet to all Floridians to #VoteEarly

#ONEV1 #DEMVOICE1

TEXAS‼️ - 3.4 million Texans have voted already! 2.9 million in person, and 500k by mail.

Some perspective: 8.9 million Texans voted in 2016, so nearly 4 in 10 of all who voted in 2016, have already voted!

Keep going!

Turn Texas blue, END CORNYN TOO! (it rhymes)

Cuyahoga County voters showed up again this week! 324,199 Vote-by-Mail ballots processed, 17,532 Early In-Person voters, and 60,571 Vote-by-Mail ballots returned!

Another big day of early voting in Texas's largest county.

Nearly 600,000 people have voted since Tuesday; in 2016, the total number of votes cast was around 1.3 million.

So yes, we are up to about 45% of 2016's total number of votes!

Ohio #earlyvote update posted. Ohio passes 1 million voted. Nationally at least 26.5 million people have voted in the 2020 general election

1st numbers from today, all from rurals: In-person turnout: 3,376 GOP had been about even in mail, but won 3 to 1 in early vote today. For instance, super-red Douglas: 480 to 122. Dems continue to crush it in mail, have 42K-ballot lead in returned ballots. h

In accepted mail, that is, ballots approved, the numbers are: 123,488, or 7 percent: Ds -- 66,406 (54 percent) Rs -- 29,420 (24 percent) Others -- 27,662 (22 percent)

37,000 ballot lead in mail statewide

Nevada

These numbers are eye popping. It's making me believe that we will know on election night who won.

[quote] This is pretty amazing. The number of unmarried women voting in PA already is more than 10 times what it was at this point in 2016. They now account for 1 out of 3 votes cast, and Dems lead among these voters by 69 points, accounting for a lead of over 150,000 votes.

I know many unmarried women in PA voting for Trump. White and completely brainwashed. One was even a Clinton voter.

1,414,759 voters cast absentee or early ballots in North Carolina at the close of third day of early voting. 19.4% of North Carolina's registered voters cast ballots already. Y'all go 'head and #VoteEarly #VoteHimOut

If we have to create a gay state let's take over N.C. Push the hillbillies right into the ocean.

Nearly 4 million have voted in Texas - voter suppression and all. Truly remarkable. In 2016, a total of 8.9 voted.

Keep going folks. Let’s turn Texas blue and end Cornyn!

R154

I knew many voters in 2016 who didn't vote, not liking either candidate enough to show up. Since then, they've seen what another four years of this would look like.

It really relies on Florida r181. We will know who won Florida fairly early. If Biden wins Florida it is game over, stress free election night. If Trump wins Florida it is going to be a long night to find out who won.

The polls look pretty good. AZ and FL are closer than in the previous weeks. 16 days ugh.

About 30 million people have already voted

27.7 million among reporting states

This is making me really curious about what the final numbers are going to look like. Wouldn't it be amazing if the pollsters overcorrected for 2016, and Biden wins in an even bigger blowout than we could have imagined?

I pray

"59% of first-time voters who already cast ballots in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats, compared to the just 15% who are registered Republicans. Democratic first-time voters were just barely outvoting Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016." (via @axios)

Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2 EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

Wake up Democrats!

Florida EV as of 10:30 AM

Dem 34,825 Rep 28,888

Total 75,680

48/67 counties reporting

8. Don’t get carried away with early voting data.

Democrats have a huge edge in early voting so far … but as I talked about on my weekly segment for ABC’s “This Week,” I’m not sure I’d read too much into it. The early-voting lead for Democrats is largely in line with what polls predicted, and Republicans are likely to draw the race closer with a huge Election Day turnout. Moreover, our experience in past elections is that people tend to read more into early voting data than is warranted and often cherry-pick data in ways that are favorable to their preferred party or candidate.

Also, the huge partisan split in early in-person voting and mail voting is new — historically, it was something that both parties took advantage of — and that makes it hard to put it into context. Maybe it really will turn out to be a bad sign for Republicans that Democrats are banking so many votes. Or maybe Democrats will underperform polls because mail votes have a higher rate of ballot spoilage. On balance I’d rather have a lot of votes locked in than not, but we’re flying pretty blind here. Besides, most polls try to account for early voting — for instance, by asking voters whether they’ve already voted — so to the extent that Democrats are benefiting from it, it should be reflected in the polls already.

As was pointed out on the Mighty Joe Biden thread (which now needs a part III), R195's stats are inaccurate for FL. Their own link shows that registered Democrats have returned ballots in numbers more than half again as many as registered Republicans (1,228,180 versus 757,810).

Voting status: - among ballots already cast, Biden leads Trump, 71% to 25% - 52% of Biden voters say they already voted - 24% of Trump voters have voted - 50% of Trump voters say they will vote on election day - only 16% of Biden voters plan to wait

So orange's voters are going to wait another two weeks to vote.

What happens if there are long lines and it's raining? What happens if they get sick and can't make it to the polls?

You all are always talking about weather depressing turnout - especially in places like Pennsylvania, michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Or is it you think rethugs will show up no matter what?

According to @CivicYouth, the number of early votes cast by young people is also high in Virginia. In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, early votes cast by young voters have nearly matched or exceeded the 2016 margin of victory in the state.

I broke down and started pulling in the Early Vote numbers from the Texas Secretary of State.

Attached is the full Vote counts through 6 days of Early Voting. Texas has seen over 4,000,000 votes cast, 23.97% of registered voters.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- US Supreme Court sides with Democrats to allow Pennsylvania to count mailed ballots received up to 3 days after election.

BREAKING: #California has registered a record 21 million voters this year, with nearly 2/3 of new registrations being millennials or Gen Y.

In total, 83% of eligible Californians are registered to vote.

Today is the last day to register! #CAVotes

Oct. 19 More than 700K early voters in Harris County in 7 days. Final numbers for the 7th day of early voting in Harris County, Texas: Early in person voters = 74,026 Mail ballots returned = 17,106 Day 7 total early voters = 91,132 Total early voters first 7 days = 719,840 #khoU

When do we know who's leading?

We don’t know for sure until at least the night of November 3. All we can know now is Party affiliation, location, race.

Final Florida EV Update:

Rep 134,349 (+2,937) Dem 131,412 NPA/Others 48,169

Total 313,930

Miami-Dade/Sarasota voted today but their returns will be available at 8am tomorrow

R207, are those today's statistics? I'm seeing a total of Democrats 1,227,883 and Republicans 757,694—Democrats are still ahead, if by less than before. FWIW registered Democrats requested more ballots (2,602,756) than Republicans (1,801,296).

2016 Non voters make up 22% of the NC vote so far - 340K votes......

JUST IN: Joe Biden has 49% support among likely voters in a new @ABC News/WaPo poll in North Carolina, with 48% for Pres. Trump.

North Carolina was always going to be close. The worry I got is that PA is too close.

The problem with NC is that Republicans recently almost always outperform polling by 3 or 4 percentage points. Republicans are zealous voters in NC. They always turn out.

GOP picked up 2,000 ballots on the Dems in Clark in early voting today: R – 12,865 D – 10,844 NP – 5,898 Total – 29,607 That's 43-36. What an upside down year! Dem ballot lead in Clark down to 42K.

Ominous news in Nevada: Washoe is in for the day, with GOP winning by 1,700: Democratic - 2,299 Republican - 3,987 Other - 1,436 Total - 7,722 Combined mail/in-person: Democratic - 35,112 Republican - 23,255 Other - 15,777 Total - 74,144 Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

President (Ohio) Biden (D) 48% Trump (R) 47% 10/18-10/19 by Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (C+) 800 LV

With two weeks to go before Election Day, 1.6M Michigan voters have already voted, compared to 1.2M who voted early in all of 2016.

The proportion of El Paso early voters who didn't cast ballots in 2016 continues to grow and is now up to 28%. Here's a look at who these voters are, and what's motivating them.

Marlo’s: @BBMcGinty I don’t understand the need to create an alternate doom reality. Florida will be close. Everyone knows that. But saying more Republicans have voted is demonstrably false.

Harris County (#Houston) recorded 81,967 votes today, bringing the grand total to 801,807. 🗳️☑️🔥 This is 60% of the 2016 total and 32% of all registered voters. There are 11 voting days left. #Election2020

The Democratic advantage among mail ballots cast in Pennsylvania is currently at just about 500,000 votes. That includes 155,913 Dems who didn't vote in 2016. Yes, Republicans are waiting for Election Day, but you can't overemphasize the tactical advantage of banking votes early.

Holy cow people - we passed 37 MILLION early votes - that's 27% of all 2016 votes with two weeks to go! Also, more than 5 million voted today, so we're picking up steam!

Of the states that report by party affiliation: D - 53% R - 25% I - 215

Keep going! GET OUT OUR VOTE!

"EARLY VOTING OLYMPICS" BY VOLUME, 10/20 EDITION

(Gold) 4.6M in TX (51.5% of 2016 vote total already cast) (Silver) 4.0M in CA (28%) (Bronze) 2.9M in FL (31.5%)

Honorable mention: 1.85M in NC (40%). (1/2)

WASHINGTON STATE EARLY VOTING While this is an 100% VBM state, this is the first day the SOS is releasing returned ballot statistics. Another "wow" moment.

(These are "14 days out" statistics) 2016: 266K 2020: 848K, or 18% of voters/25% of the 2016 volume

Fuuuuuck, r222! Those numbers are staggering!

No wonder fat orange is shitting his pants! People cannot wait to be rid of this embarrassment!

I'm wondering if the rabid voting is a rush to save Trump- or a rush to depose him? You keep hearing, "This is the most important election of our lives!!". But no one asks 'why?'.

Landslide victory for Biden. Drumpf knows his days are numbered in the White House. The good news is from all the news, the margins even in swing states are so huge in Biden's favor that there won't be even a question when Drumpf contests it! Suck ti, repugs. We are doing it!!!

Thru Tuesday 10/20 NC has 2,155,349 accepted ballots: 660,389 mail, 1,494,960 in-person early (29.5% of 7,304,753 reg voters, 45.2% of 4,769,640 2016 turnout). Accepted mail ballots are 47.2% of 1,397,682 mail ballots requested. (party, race, top 25 counties, daily early) #NCpol

More than 4.6 million people cast their vote in Texas during the first seven days of early voting.

That represents a little more than 27% of all registered voters in Texas.

JUST IN: An exclusive Spectrum News/IPSOS poll has found 84% of people in North Carolina plan to vote or already have this year. But while 30% of voters in our state plan to do mail-in voting, a majority are concerned about mail-in voting fraud. #ncpol

Dumb question: assume there are only 10 registered voters (5 Dem, 5 Rep) who vote party, and let's say: 4 Dem (40% of registered) and 2 R (20%) vote BEFORE Nov 3 (due to Covid, voter/anti-Trump enthusiasm, USPS concerns, etc.), like what's happening now in early voting states. But then on Election Day, the remaining 3 Rs vote but not the 1 D remaining. In this scenario, Rs win. So why are we getting overly excited about Dems' higher voting %s now?

Because, R230, there are already many more voting than usual, and this has kept up since early voting started. Heavy turnout usually favors Democrats for the reason you allude to—that Republicans tend to be more disciplined about voting than Democrats are. The bigger turnout, the more Democrats. But you're right, Republicans are probably also very motivated and will turn out in greater numbers toward the end, so time will tell.

In 2016, Republicans stampeded the polls in NC, early voting and Election Day. Again this year, they are voting in larger than expected number early inperson

538 Model on the election. If Trump wins Florida, Biden's chances of winning go down to 59%. If Biden wins Florida, he has a >99% chance of winning.

35% of the 765k mail ballots submitted in GA are from individuals who did not vote in 2016. That's a remarkable stat. Among all early voters in NC, that stat is also high (22%).

turnout in 2020 by Latinos 18-29 has increased 3x what it was at this point in 2016! Thanks to

@NextGenAmerica

In the latest @QuinnipiacPoll In Texas-

18% of Voters said they will vote on Election Day

12% through Mail/Absentee

69% will be voting Early.

New @QuinnipiacPoll of likely voters has Trump and Biden tied in Texas, 47-47. MOE is +/- 2.9%.

Those voting in person on Election Day: Trump 62, Biden 32 By mail/absentee: Biden 63, Trump 31 Voting at an early voting location: Biden 48, Trump 46 h

Georgia will pass 2M voters sometimes today after a big day of voting Tuesday: 183,000 ballots cast (160K early and 23K absentee). The numbers continue to increase daily, with a week and a half of early voting remaining.

PENNSYLVANIA poll: Quinnipiac

Biden 51% Trump 43%

T Jon Ralston: Big news on NV mail ballots:

I had seen a few people put this out, but finally got tech issues fixed so I could confirm.

In Clark, Dems now have a 60K (!) lead in mail ballots. In-person about even. That is a huge lead. Was 73K after two weeks in '16.

Blog update soon.

I thought Jon Ralston was the one who keeps giving us scary news about Republican leads in NV.

[quote]Why are people having trouble completing the affidavit part of the mail-in ballot?

Because Americans are fucking MORONS.

New Fox News polls

Michigan: Biden +12 Pennsylvania: Biden +5 Wisconsin: Biden +5 Ohio: Trump +3

Here's Virginia's early vote by county as a percentage of registered voters. 36% of registered voters have voted statewide so far.

DAILY UPDATES:

88.9M requests (+424K) 44.2M voted (+4.5M)

I have "stale" data for IN, KY, ME, and MN Have to wait until AM for updates from GA, LA, MT, NC, TX, TN, VA, WI, and WV

So we'll easily top 5M new votes when all those are logged in.

The latest list of Georgia voters makes it easy to see why the state is in play this election,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Nearly two-thirds of the new voters since the last presidential election are people of color… Georgia’s changing demographics have long been anticipated, but they happened more quickly than many people expected.”

Early voters have cast 45,272,131 votes. We are heading for 100 million early votes. In 2016 126 million people voted in total. We are heading for some historic numbers.

Early voters have cast 45,272,131 votes. We are heading for 100 million early votes. In 2016 126 million people voted in total. We are heading for some historic numbers.

According to the Texas Secretary of State, 5,875,684 Texans had voted through Wednesday, a turnout of 34.7% of registered voters.

Texas turnout this year is already 65.5% of the state’s *total* turnout for 2016 (in-person early, mail, and Election Day).

#txlege #Election2020

We could see 75% turnout in Texas this year

NC total accepted absentee ballots (mail & in-person), thru 10-21, by voter regions:

30% from Urban Central City Voters 27% from Urban Suburb Voters 24% from Surrounding Suburban County Voters 19% from Rural County Voters

by Regions & Party Reg within each

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots (both mail & in-person), thru 10-21, by generation cohorts:

43% from Boomers 23% from Gen X 16% from Millennials 13% from Greatest/Silent 5% from Gen Z

by Voter Generation Cohort & Party Registration within

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee (both mail & in-person) ballots, thru 10-21:

66% from White Non-Hispanic 21% from Black Non-Hispanic 2% from Hispanic/Latino 3% from all other races Non-Hispanic

by Voter Race-Ethnicity and Party Registration within

#ncpol #ncvotes

As of 10-17, NC currently has 7.2M+ registered voters

2.4M+ early votes = 34% of NC's total registered voters having already "banked a ballot" for Nov. 3

Within party registrations:

Reg Democrats: 40% have voted Republicans: 32% Unaffiliated: 29%

#ncpol #ncvotes

Thru Thurs 10/22 NC has 2,697,900 accepted ballots: 727,630 mail, 1,970,270 in-person early (36.9% of 7,311,145 reg voters, 56.6% of 4,769,640 2016 turnout). Accepted mail ballots are 51.2% of 1,420,665 mail ballots requested. (party, race, top 25 counties, daily early) #ncpol /1

Informal post-debate poll of "undecideds" in North Carolina.

Florida #Vote 8AM update 10.23.20 (includes mail & early in-person)

@FlaDems +427,517 (-35,257 from yesterday)

DEM: 2,110,366 GOP: 1,682,849 N/3/I: 978,741

TOTAL: 4,771,995

Anyone too stupid to complete a ballot properly probably doesn't have the ability to select a candidate to vote for without someone telling him the best choice. Sad.

Early votes cast so far (as share of total '16 votes cast):

Falls Church, VA: 73% Arlington, VA: 59% Alexandria, VA: 56% Prince William, VA: 51% Loudoun, VA: 50% Fairfax Co., VA: 42%

Pretty clear Fairfax didn't plan adequately to meet huge demand for in-person early voting.

This is why black people should name their kids some white sounding name like John or Jane. How much do you want to bet the ballots returned all belonged to people with names like Tyrone and LaToya?

they call me JANE, BITCH!

Florida hit 4,773,128 votes this morning, which is roughly 33% of registered voters. Here is a map of the statewide turnout:

In the 90s I worked at a well known NYC bank and my boss would get a bunch of resumes from HR and would throw out the ones with funny names that he had never heard of before. Don't know if that happens much today, but I remember one girl with a very different name, most likely a Black name, graduated Brown University and didn't get an interview. It was unfair but

Same day registration at early voting 25,710, 1.3% of total 1,970,270. Thursday early voting total subject to adjustment as usual, for late reports + same day registration processing, usual adjustment +4%. (for example, no totals yet on Ocracoke early voting Thursday) /2 #ncpol

Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120% TX - 55% MN - 37% FL - 35% WI - 31% GA - 21% AZ - 19% NC - 16% OH - 15% NV - 13%

How do they know who a black voter cast a ballot for?

BREAKING:

New Meredith College poll of North Carolina

Biden +4

Meredith poll

It would be great if Biden won NC. That seems like a state that would be close but eventually tip to Trump. Similiar to Florida. If Biden could hold in NC the path to 270 is so much easier.

Since 2010, polling has greatly underestimated the Republican vote in North Carolina. Lethargic Democratic turnout and registered Democrats who vote Republican are a problem in the state

FAST MOVING TRAIN OF EARLY VOTING:

1 wk ago: 21M, 54-26% Dem/Rep Now: 53.1M, 49-30% Dem/Rep

(The (non modeled) party registration in these states is 41-30% Dem/Rep)

Pollsters have gotten better about weighting for white voters without a college degree though r270. We will see what difference that makes in this election.

One factor with NC this cycle is they have a popular Democratic governor expected to easily win reelection. Will that help Biden and Cunningham? Possibly.

Why the fuck do they need a witness? That is some bullshit.

53 million have voted so far.

Texas at 71% of 2016 turnout, Montana at 63%, Georgia and North Carolina at 56%. #Election2020 ht

Just another hurdle, R273. Voter suppression.

Follow the law if you want your vote to count, don't fuck up and complain later.

That's: 103% of 2016 early vote. 76% of 2016 total vote. 42% of all registered voters.

Projected shifts in Florida electorate Since Trump won by 1.2 points in 2016: ...Whites with no degree: -2.1% ...Whites with a degree: +0.1% ...Blacks: +0.6% ...Hispanics: +0.9% none of these shifts are favorable to the president

BREAKING: Harris County voters have logged 1,000,000 votes so far. That is especially amazing because we still have a week of early vote left to go. We’ve officially broken total early vote turnout records today. Keep making history, y’all.

Some hood news from Joy Reid

11.7% of votes cast in Texas so far, from voters who did not vote in 2016

1 in 5 votes cast in early voting across the country look to be from first time voters (out of nearly 50 million cast votes)

That is huge

Today's turnout numbers in #Florida (w/o Miami-Dade):

Dems: 156,902 (34.53%) Reps: 199,216 (43.84%) NPA/O: 98,310 (21.63%) Total votes: 454,428

#flapol #sayfie #election2020

Votes cast already: 53.5 million Mail in: 37.2 million In person: 16.3 million % of final 2016 turnout: 39%

Pennsylvania, votes cast already, by party registration:

Democrats 1,031,663 (71%) Republicans 295,430 (20%) Third Party 9,040 (<1%) No Party Affiliation 125,002 (9%)

R282, that’s really interesting because it proves people don’t want to expose themselves to Covid.

I dropped my mail-in ballot in the ballot box at my local early voting location. While people snaked around in a huge line, I cut right through them and was done in five minutes. They had two women at the ballot box to make sure your ballot was signed before you put it in the box. You can go online and find out where you can drop them off, and what days and times, if you don’t want to use the mail. And you can track when your ballot was received online and when it was counted. If you’re concerned about standing in a long line, vote as fast as you can, to avoid the horrible lines that will happen on November 3. Especially if you’re in a voter suppression state.

Historically, Republicans like to early vote or vote by mail. But this year Trump has ridiculed vote by mail so much, and promoted voting on Election Day so much, Republicans have voted early much less than normal. So on November third, there will be huge lines of people that normally would have voted weeks earlier. Be done before then.

I bet a lot of people see those long lines on November third, turn around and leave. And vote by mail is over by then, in many states. The problem with everyone voting on one day is, if you get sick, or your car breaks down, or you see a line that’s twenty miles long, that’s your last chance. And what if it rains or the weather is bad that day? A significant portion of those people may give up.

If you don’t think you can bother to vote early or by mail, it was just announced 77,000 new cases of Covid happened today. In one day. The life you save may be your own.

R283, here’s some context:

“State voter records show Pennsylvania is 46.6% Democrat, 38.9% Republican and 14.4% independent/other voters.

“In other words, there's 4,207,190 Democrats and 3,506,337 Republicans. So, the Dems have a 700,853 lead with voter registration.”

I’d like to know who the Independents are. Never Trumpers?

[quote]So the Trump campaign/state GOP found a voter to give the lawsuit to stop mail ballots standing. A fellow named Fred Kraus.

[quote]By coincidence, Kraus worked for Sheldon Adelson for 30 years, former Sands general counsel.

[quote]So many coincidences. -- Jon Ralston, the Nevada Independent

Interesting: Hays County, TX just south of Austin is poised to be the first in the U.S. to surpass its 2016 total votes cast. So far, 65,819 voters have cast ballots, vs. 72,164 in all of '16.

It's also the likeliest county in TX to flip from Trump '16 to Biden '20.

Anybody see this? WTF?

Lou Dobbs from Fox News calling for Lindsey Graham to be “tuned out” in South Carolina

Is it normal to get detailed breakdowns of the election like this so early? Has this ever happened before?

I don't remember all if this information being made public like this before election day.

R289, part of it is a lot more people are voting by mail due to Covid. Part of it is people are voting early because they want to get rid of Trump. Part of it is states breaking voting records all over the country. A lot of states will be at their total 2016 voting numbers in a few days. Part of it is Trump constantly challenging vote-by-mail in court and trying to stop people from voting.

Does he seriously think a judge is just going to say, you’re right, let’s just throw millions of votes away and declare you the winner? Based on what legal precedent? The “America is a fascist country” Amendment written into the Constitution? Where?

I think the main reason they’re covering it is because people are mad as hell and they won’t take it any more.

That was their whole plan, r290.

That is why the mad push to seat a new justice who is beholden to the GOP. They think the Election will be close enough that the thugs will just hand it over to the shitstain.

With massive turnout, that makes it less likely but that is their plan.

295,973 votes have been cast by voters in Wisconsin who didn't vote in the '16 general election. They account for 27% of all early votes cast. Democrats have a modeled party ID lead of 17% with these surge voters, as compared to a lead of only 1% with those who did vote in '16.

56. MILLION.VOTES - and that's without updates from CO, FL (working on), GA, WI, and TN

TEXAS CLOSING IN ON 7 MILLION: 6.857M as of last night's update.

Young voters are WOKE! Early Votes Cast (Ages 18-29) Texas 493,314 Florida 257,720 (Early votes cast in 2016 - 44,107) N.C. 204,986 (Early votes in 2016 - 25,150) Virginia 178,496 (Early votes in 2016 - 23,152) Georgia 170,282 (in '16 - 32,960)

Young voters are WOKE! Early Votes Cast (Ages 18-29) Texas 493,314 Florida 257,720 (Early votes cast in 2016 - 44,107) N.C. 204,986 (Early votes in 2016 - 25,150) Virginia 178,496 (Early votes in 2016 - 23,152) Georgia 170,282 (in '16 - 32,960)

Nate Cohn: One important election night twist: early mail ballots are really good for Biden in Arizona so far, reversing the traditional pattern (you may recall McSally led and then Sinema over took post election day). Now, I'd expect Biden to have the Election Night lead in Arizona.

This is good to see: The new Harvard poll finds Biden leading Trump by 60-27 among young voters. More important, the poll finds that they're promising to vote at 2008 Obama levels. That's big! I talked to the head of the Harvard poll about what this means:

@umichvoter99 Democrats only netted 1431 ballots yesterday in Miami-Dade. Republicans have not only made strong inroads in the early in person voting. They are now getting a decent portion of VBM.

Some interesting 2016 polling data. As of this date, 11 days from the Election, Biden has a RCP Average lead of 7.9 points. Clinton held a lead of 5.2 points at the same point in 2016.

Clinton was only at +3.8 10 days before the election r300.

It’s so hard for National Democrats to win NC

DEMOCRAT #ncVOTEs SURPLUS for Sat, Oct 24: Tracking this number carefully. Biden needs > +600,000 based on prior history: #ncpol #NCEP

Thru Fri 10/23 NC has 2,956,571 accepted ballots: 756,084 mail, 2,200,487 in-person early (40.4% of 7,314,614 reg voters, 62.0% of 4,769,640 2016 turnout). Accepted mail ballots are 53.2% of 1,420,665 mail ballots requested. (party, race, top 25 counties, daily early) #ncpol /1

That twitter account has all of 50 followers r302, how'd you even find it. Doesn’t seem like anyone takes them seriously.

In Nc, the @gercohen Differential between Dems and Reps down to 11.1%. Less of a differential than 2016. Trump’s nonstop rallies in NC is definitely paying off with robust GOP turnout

1.3 million people in WI have now cast ballots per today's data. That's 44% of total 2016 vote of that figure, 272K have voted early in-person, which started Tuesday (almost 70K per day). 4 counties have passed 50% of 2016 turnout: Dane 60% Ozaukee 54% Brown 52% Waukesha 52%

#earlyvote morning update 10/24

At least 56 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

Florida‼️- 5.2 million Floridians have voted, 55% of all who voted in 2016.

By party affiliation: Democrats - 2,289,645 Republicans - 1,899,530 No Party - 1,029,570

Usually the GOP outvotes us early, but this is a close race. We need to work to get out the vote in FL!

Texas ‼️ - 6.9 million Texans have voted, 77% of all the 2016 vote.

Mail in voting was limited to suppress the vote, but more than 6 million have stood in line to vote.

Keep going! Run up our vote! Turn Texas blue and end Cornyn!

Cuyahoga County voters continued to show up in record numbers this week: 334,109 Vote-by-Mail ballot applications processed, 29,702 Early In-Person voters, and 180,345 Vote-by-Mail ballots returned!

other than phone/txt banking & donating, what more can be done in FL, TX and NC if you don't live in there? given Biden's deep war chest, I presume he's going to divert more $ towards these states b/w now & Nov 3.

22% of NC's early voters are 'new' this year (didn't vote in 2016 and were registered OR registered after 2016)

#ncpol #ncvotes

22% of NC's early voters are 'new' this year (didn't vote in 2016 and were registered OR registered after 2016)

#ncpol #ncvotes

22% of NC's early voters are 'new' this year (didn't vote in 2016 and were registered OR registered after 2016)

#ncpol #ncvotes

🚨TODAY is the last day to request a mail-in ballot if you live in Florida. Democrats lead over Republicans of already cast votes is shrinking by the day. Make your voice heard. #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica

Democrat > GOP lead margin:

10/22- 462,774 10/23- 427,517 10/24- 390,115

Evidence of the Obama winning coalition reassembling - over 2M voters who cast a ballot in 2012 but stayed home in 2016 have already voted. Dems have a 10 pt modeled party advantage among these voters.

Maps of Virginia Potential Early Votes by Precinct Generally Show Highest %s in “Blue” Areas of the State, Lowest %s in the “Red” Areas (It is worth noting that there are variations within regions, however) via @bluevirginia

My prediction: Biden will win Arizona and Texas but lose Florida and North Carolina.

I concur. Winning Florida and North Carolina has become fools gold for Democrats absent Obama being on the ballot

All these other states are gravy.

The core states are WI, MI, PA. Those are and have always been the most important states for Biden's victory.

Trump, speaking in North Carolina, announces he's gonna cut it short because he's hot

As the population shifts over the next 20 years to half the people living in 8 states (?), NC will become more and more important. It used to be much more blue, and would be now if it weren't so damn gerrymandered--some places fixed to give Rs a 10-3 advantage, despite the number of voters being relatively the same. How was this allowed to happen, apathy?

As with most places, where there are more people with more education and more money, NC has solid blue representation (the Triangle, the Triad, Charlotte and Asheville, which is growing). It's the rest of the state, especially where it's rural or there's a lot of military, that it's blood red...especially in wealthy enclaves where education isn't valued and the people have just stayed in the one place all their lives. Racism, religion, the community shaming of anyone who wants to be educated and do better for themselves: all the usual southern suspects.

A lot of teachers in NC vote R, which is so contrary to their profession, as NC is notorious for starving public school budgets to death: NC is ranked 48th in school spending.

I wish they would go back to their tax breaks to get film and TV production back there, that usually gives a place a nice big shot of blue. If some television series anchored in Wilmington it would help break up the Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach R stranglehold.

I’d like to see infrastructure that more closely ties NC to the NE corridor. Extend Acela down to the Triangle and Charlotte.

Trump is in a heavily native Indian county in NC. He says he supports federal recognition of the Lumbee Indian tribe, which is a very shrewd move on his part. Democrat should have come out and support a long time ago. Biden is not doing what he needs to do in North Carolina on the ground. Reliance on tv ads won’t cut it in NC. Early voting stats show rallies and on the ground campaigning still is king in NC

Democrat absentee #ncvotes analysis for Saturday, Oct 24: #ncpol #NCEP Proportion of Ballots: 40.82% Relative to 2016: -8.10% Relative to Yesterday: -2.12%

Robeson County is the Indian NC County where Trump is today

For those of us watching #ncpol on a Saturday: #NCEP

2016 DEEP DIVE COUNTY:ROBESON COUNTY SEAT: Lumberton DEMO:Rural mix

TRUMP: 20762 50.5% CLINTON:1901646.2%

REG: 75920 #ncVOTEs: 41137 54.2%

EARLY: 45.2% E DAY: 54.8%

its funny to watch all this oversharing of data since we have no idea what percentage of voters will wait to vote in person on election day. But the one thing this early voting does allow for is for Democrats to hyper target election day voters. An election day ground game can make a difference and Republicans can't be as effective. Dems know exactly which Dems haven't voted by election day in most states and can target them directly.

True

R327, the more people that vote before Election Day, the less people that have to be contacted. I just deleted four separate organizations who were nagging me to vote, because I voted.

Hopefully by Nov 3, almost everyone will have voted and there will be very few left. It’s hard to find enough rides to the polls, or assistance for the elderly, so if you can go by yourself, or can take a friend or relative, do it now, so resources aren’t wasted on you. Leave them for the people that need help.

Voters continue to vote early in record numbers in the US. Early vote recorded now at 42% of overall turnout in 2016. Turnout as % of 2016 in swing states: Over 70%: TX (77%!!) Over 60%: GA, NC Over 50%: FL Over 40%: ME, MN, MI, WI, NV, IA, AZ Over 30%: OH Over 20%: PA

Also according to @CivicYouth, as of June:

27% of 18-24-year-olds have attended a march of demonstration, a jump from the 5% and 16% of 18-24-year-olds who had done so in 2016 and 2018 respectively

#earlyvote morning update 10/25

At least 58 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

CBS North Carolina: Biden up by 4%

Dave Wasserman: You know what will have a big impact on TX's outcome? Turnout in the heavily Hispanic border counties, which is currently at ~32% of registered voters compared to 50%+ in TX's major metro suburbs.

It happened: Hays Co., TX just became the first county in America - to my knowledge - to surpass its total 2016 turnout.

Four years ago, it cast 72,164 total votes. With more than a week left, 73,277 people there have already early voted.

This group says they take their figures from actual votes, not polls. There’s a whole bunch of tweets on their site saying if this continues, we’re going to lose North Carolina. Democrats are not turning out well, and there’s a very large number of Independents voting. Who knows what they are. And the vast majority of Republicans will show up on Election Day.

This is not good.

NC Election Project @ncvoterguru

For the fourth day in a row Republican #ncvotes have exceeded Dem., if just barely at 1137 ballots:

NC will go Red. As usual. Have you ever been there (and I don't mean Meck/Wake/Orange counties)? They're almost as conservative as SC.

Yes, we in NC need to somehow, immediately get more black, urban, and youth people out to vote this week! I just don’t get why they are lagging. NC White rural and religious voters are bombarding the polls in historic numbers

Not true about NC being as conservative as SC. Democratic governors are the norm Here, and Governor Cooper is likely to be re-elected in a landslide. Cal Cunningham is still likely to win despite a sex scandal

R331- That's bc of the BLM idiocy. The kids think its trendy.

I’m guessing it means Trump has a better get out the vote organization. Those Republicans are very motivated.

R339- The only reason Cooper was elected was because of the bathroom issue. HIGHLY doubtful Cooper will win this year., there are 100 counties in NC and the majority despise Cooper even though he's showing a lead. He completely destroyed small business due to his ineffective Covid19 orders. His own daughter can't even stand him.

In person rallies matter. They excite your base, and in many cases, people attending rallies go straight to vote right after them. Trump and Pence are in NC holding huge rallies almost every other day, and local media gives them top Billing every time they come, covering their message unquestionably. It’s the advantage of inperson campaigning and nonstop rallies in NC.

R342, you child resign if you truly work for a BC Senator. You have to be dumb if you don’t know Cooper is wildly popular in NC and headed for a landslide victory. You just clowned yourself dude

R344- Have fun with your amateur predictions.

Biden RCP lead: 1.8%

FL counties w/ highest turnout of registered voters so far:

1. SUMTER: 58% 2. Collier: 55% 3. Martin: 50% 4. Lee: 47% 5. St. Johns: 46% 6. Nassau: 46% 7. Indian River: 46% 8. Monroe: 45% 9. Charlotte: 45% 10. Sarasota: 45%

Hays Co., TX just became the first county in America to surpass its total 2016 turnout.

Donald Trump won this county in 2016 by less than one percent.

Two of the key points in Harris County's early vote so far:

💥 56% of the electorate so far is women (~+9 points from '16) }

💥 Young voters (<40) make up 31% of the electorate (+~11 points from '16) ➡Related map:

.@texastribune’s early vote tracker has been updated: 7.2M Texans have voted so far — that's 42.4% of the state’s registered voters. We’re only ~1.7M away from *total* 2016 turnout, which was the most ever hW #t2020 #txlege #txsen

Yeah Cooper is widely expected to win. Biden and Cunningham may or not carry the state, but guarantee Cooper will win.

Should Cooper use political capital to help Biden? Cunningham is on his own

Come on, red state Democrats, sane Republicans and sane Independents - go go go!

Fantastic work so far, keep going, we'll send you all the money you could possibly spend.

North Carolina has now exceeded all of 2016’s early votes, based on data from @NCSBE

In 2016: total of 3,102,093

Today: 3,163,328

That’s 43% of the 7.3M registered voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

Karl Rove has been lurking around Ohio judicial races. Ohio ballots do not indicate the race of the judges running for office. Yikes. Texas has really long ballots; I would hate to have to remember the names of every Democratic judge I planned to vote for. At any rate, if I voted in Ohio, I would take a list with me to the voting booth.

[quote]Ohio’s Supreme Court is now composed of five Republicans and two Democrats. And that’s A-OK with Ohio’s GOP, public utilities and insurance companies.

[quote]This year, two Supreme Court justices are seeking reelection: Republican Justice Judi French, of suburban Columbus, and Republican Justice Sharon L. Kennedy, of suburban Middletown.

[quote]Democratic Court of Appeals Judge Jennifer Brunner, of the Columbus-based 10th Ohio District Court of Appeals, is challenging Justice French. Brunner was Ohio’s secretary of state from 2007 through 2010.

[quote]Democratic Common Pleas Judge John P. O’Donnell of Cuyahoga County is challenging Justice Kennedy. (He came within 22,000 votes of winning a Supreme Court seat in 2016.)

[quote]Eventually, Ohio’s Supreme Court may review the constitutionality of House Bill 6, to force electricity consumers to bail out the Perry and Davis-Besse nuclear plants, once owned by FirstEnergy Corp.

There have been 3,171,202 early ballots accepted in NC, according to the state Board of Elections— So roughly 43% of all registered NC voters have already cast a ballot.

With 8 days until Election Day, NC has now exceeded the total number of early votes cast in 2016 (3,102,093)

New: Denton and Williamson counties in TX just became the second and third in the nation after Hays (to my knowledge) to surpass their *total* 2016 votes cast. And there's still a week of voting left.

I think Biden will win Texas but lose North Carolina.

I think has Better chance of winning Texas and Georgia and North Carolina and Florida.

Current trendline in NC early vote could portend 4.5m ballots in before elction day. Though, may slow down this WK since so much in.

Just a few more days, so we know more with each closing day.

#ncpol

R359 I agree. I think he has a better shot at winning those, maybe even Arizona too than North Carolina and Florida.

Mark Kelly is running in Arizona, so Biden may catch some coattails there. I hope so.

With 9 days of voting remaining, Asian voters in Texas have already cast more ballots than they did in total in the 2016 general election.

R355, I'm in Ohio and I have received at least THREE SEPARATE Supreme Court flyers plus another handwritten postcard for the two seats.

I, myself, wrote 50 postcards to voters for this race. The Ohio Democrats are pulling out all of the stops to win these seats and we have a good chance.

Texas Hispanics: 70-24 Biden among women; 43-44 among men

Hopefully the men won’t vote

Williamson County has set a new record for most votes ever cast in an election cycle!

2020 (so far): 215,834 votes cast (57.26% turnout). That breaks the old record of 209,257 set in 2018.

Today: 8,972 early votes. + mail/limited/provisional = 10,315 total today. @KXAN_News

MAINE ‼️ - 370k have voted. This is half of all the 2016 votes.

Democrats - 191,676 Republicans - 79,566 Independents - 87,237

Run it up! END Trump and END Collins. Everyone focus on getting out our vote in these final days

@Jetsfootball94 (1) 47-32% Dem/Rep (2) A week ago, it was 53-27% Dem/Rep (3) So the gap is closing; question is, will it narrow to +10 Dem by Election Day (that's the voter registration spread)

Police cars revolving light 7.8 Million people have voted so far in Texas. I was spot on with my projection yesterday (7.7-7.8) In 2016, a total of 8,969,000 voted in the General Election. We are on track to pass that number at this rate **before Election Day** with 4 day's of EV left.

Medium batch of new Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada. New Totals: DEM 148,702 (+6,155) REP 58,125 (+3,069) OTH 66,255 (+3,810) DEM Mail Ballot Advantage in Clark: 90,577 DEM Advantage with Early and Mail: 70,169 @RalstonReports @sorceror43

Miami-Dade, #Florida numbers from yesterday. This is the first day that more Republicans turned out than Democrats. However, very few VBM. NPA numbers are high: Democrats: 15,243 34.61% Republicans: 15,783 35.84 NPA/Other: 13,015 29.55%

Biden will deffo lose Florida.

Florida Democrats are really slacking

Florida Democrats are really slacking

Total Voted by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

Party

Count

Percent

Democrats

15,202,552

48.6

Republicans

8,974,045

28.7

Minor

194,811

0.6

No Party Affiliation

6,937,545

22.2

TOTAL

31,308,953

100.0

Roughly 66.6 million votes have been cast early. This is the equivalent to 48.4% of all votes cast in 2016.

If independents favor Biden he wins. Do we know if more D's VBM in FLA?

My question too R378, do most unaffiliateds swing Dem or Rep this time?

Biden is leading with Independent by a fairly wide margin at least nationally.