New Rasmussen Poll Has Mighty Joe Biden Up 12 Points Over Trump

Rasmussen is a conservative poll!

But what does it say about the swing states?

Mighty Yo Yung

Rasmussen better apologize!

Rasmussen is about to get a cease and desist letter.

All those millions of dollars Trump’s spending in negative ads against Joe and this is the result?

Rasmussen is cancelled.

Joe just hauled in $81 million, and his campaign is barely spending any money.

People are over this shitshow. If we were to have a crisis over the next 4 years nobody has confidence in this person or his administration. He can try to slander Biden but we know Uncle Joe. We like Uncle Joe. More importantly we would trust the people he surrounds himself with.

Fake news!!!

Dee, you’re secretly thinking of voting for Biden. I know you have to keep up appearances though.

I posted this is the other thread...

Trump is up 2 in Arkansas. This is remarkable because he won Arkansas by 26.

Ivanka is gonna vote for Joe. I just know it, deep down. Just to stop the madness.

If we have another huge wave this summer that overwhelms our hospitals he’s really fucked and so are we.

R12 she’s always been a Democrat.

That's only 84%. The other 16% don't want to admit that they are voting for Trump, just like last time.

R15 nope. This is not 2016. He has a terrible record now. If Rasmussen has him down 12 he’s probably down 20.

R11, which other thread?

I dropped it from my watch list r17 because it was a post or two shy of 600. I think this is the new polling thread.

Thanks, R18. No need to find it. I thought you were referring to another new thread.

What’s the source for the Arkansas poll?

Hendrix, r19. Only poll for Arkansas so far.

Also a poll in Missouri this weekend had Trump up 8. He won Missouri by 18. 🥺

Thanks, R20.

the real joy in these numbers is seeing Trump down at 35% re-elect. The margin is less relevant.

With several months to go, Show me a poll showing Biden leading 55-45, and I'd call it a tossup. Show me a poll with Biden leading 45-35, I'm doing a happy dance.

I was happy to see that but $81 Million is about 25% of what the Repukes have and they will use outside groups running ads supporting their ageda. So we need to start focusing on the down ballot races too.

You know. I was thinking. Old Joe is kind of an attractive old man. Trump is grotesque. Truly gross.

BTW: I've been watching his body language in videos like from Memorial Day, etc. and even in the White House at cabinet meetings, and his physical gestures when he is standing there are ...odd. And when he is sitting he often hugs himself, folds his arms almost as if he is trying to stop himself from shaking or something? I dismissed recent claims that he is unwell, but I'm wondering about that.

Please, r4.

That clown show is sending "cyst and deceased" letters!

The numbers will change when the campaigning starts.

The campaigning starts? What the hell do you think has been going on for the past few months, R25?

Trump's whole administration has been a re-election campaign. Hell, he was impeached for trying to get a foreign government to interfere in the upcoming presidential election.

The Trump campaign has spent $34 million on ads in the past two months alone.

[QUOTE] President Donald Trump’s campaign manager warned in late spring that his juggernaut political operation — the “Death Star,” he called it — was about to start “pressing FIRE” for the first time.

[QUOTE]What followed was a massive investment in television and online advertising designed to demonstrate the true might of Trump’s reelection team. The Republican’s campaign poured nearly $24 million into paid advertising focused largely on six battleground states in the seven-week period from the last week in April through the first week of June, according to spending data obtained by The Associated Press.

[QUOTE] Last week, he launched another $10 million advertising blitz designed to highlight better-than-expected recent job numbers.

[QUOTE]The Death Star attack did not have the intended effect.

[QUOTE]Some recent polls suggest a dip in Trump’s standing and a majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. And nearly two months after Trump first unleashed his advertising tsunami, there are signs that his inability to demonstrate consistent leadership through multiple national crises has neutralized one of the best advertising campaigns money can buy.

Biden winning isn't enough. He needs to get like 90% of the votes in order for me to be happy.

We need to monitor the state polls where Trump is running ads. ButI honestly cannot understand why my Sister who lives in Honolulu is seeing Trump ads. Hawaii is solidly Democratic.

Trump has been advertising heavily here in Texas. That kinda shows the problem he is in.

New Iowa poll has Biden down by only 1 point. Trump won it in 2016 by 8.

R32, as Nate Cohn & Harry Enten said tonight, the good news for Trump is that those Iowa poll numbers could have been worse.

The bad news for Trump is that he's lost ground in Iowa and that the numbers are consistent with a high single to low double-digit national lead for Biden.

I'm in a swing state, r28 and have been treated to Trump's advertising blitz. His ads are completely lame -- and I'm not saying that because I hate him. They're shite. Utter shit that would persuade no one on the fence.

There is no way in this political climate, with the economy in worse shape that it’s been since the ‘30’s, a deadly pandemic with no end in sight, massive amounts of unemployed and soon homeless people, that Joe Biden will win.

A book called ‘Generations’ written in 1991 andauthored by a guy with the surname Strauss actually predicted a big, game changing event would happen in 2020. He also predicted that whichever political party was in office during the 2020 crisis would not be elected again for a very, very long time.

I think Democrats will hold onto the House and take the Senate too.

That Trump will win****. Biden will win Trump will lose.

After the horror of 2016, we should have learned how worthless polls are.

R35, was his last name actually Seldon?

This is not 2016 with a person with no record, who was an entertainer, who was an outsider. None of the same rules apply. If fact I think we’ll have Republicans lying to pollers and voting for Biden.

These numbers are bad especially Biden being at or over 50%. Add to that Biden is a known quantity by everyone and you’ve got a tough job to change minds. Feeble attempts to say he’s slow, has dementia or is too friendly with women will change perceptions especially against the feeble, increasingly weak looking incumbent.

^^ Will not change perceptions

Rasmussen is a crap pollster with an agenda

R41 yes a conservative agenda so this following CNN’s 14 point Biden lead is something.

And remember the Democratic candidate is not someone who is widely disliked as was the case in 2016.

unfortunately for him, everyone hates Trump and he sucks at everything. But keeping buying ads.

R43 she wasn’t widely disliked for a long time. Hillary was actually very popular until the right wing turned their sights on her again and drove up her negatives. They’re going to try it with Biden but it’s not gonna work the same because for better or worse he’s a white man.

maybe r37, but everyone has also learned how worthless Trump is.

With all the shit those farmers have gone through and the fact that 85 % of Americans admit that Trump hasn't done much to help them and they can't say the economy is any better now than it was in 2016 and even a lot worse, These so called close races in Iowa piss me off. Biden ought to have a 8 point lead in Iowa.

Ron Brownstein on the Iowa poll:

The double digit Biden lead here among non college white women, if reflective of elsewhere in the Rustbelt, is flat out calamitous for Trump.

And he’s losing the old crowd which is really bad news for him.

WORK HARDER!!!!

The past couple of weeks Trump has been advertising on TV here in San Diego. Why? There's no chance he's going to win California.

These polls are indeed disastrous for Trump.

R37, I’m sure this has been pointed out to you before, but in case you need a reminder, in 2016 the polls were a lot more volatile and a lot closer than they are now. In the end, the predictions for the popular vote were correct. Trump won the electoral college because he narrowly eeked out a win in 3 swing states by a total of 70k votes altogether. He lost the pop. vote. What the current popular vote polls show is a lead of 8-12 points. When the Democratic candidate pulls ahead in the popular vote by more than 5 points, it is impossible—and I do mean impossible—for the Republican to win the electoral college.

Yes, things could change between now and November. The polls could narrow, Trump could come roaring back for some reason. But do we really see that happening? The only thing I’ve heard about that could be on the horizon is Russia (I think it was Russia) or Russian interests in Ukraine manufacturing completely fake dirt on Biden and laundering it via Rudy G through the OAN and that horrid little Asian American host woman. But as has been pointed out upthread, we’re wiser this time. Would anyone really fall for it? The “crawling over broken glass” effect is very real this time.

Re: this article, do these Republicans look at the polls? Any of them? They cannot be this delusional.

Even with Hillary who everybody says was so disastrous as a candidate, she won the popular vote by a lot and performed well in Georgia, Texas and Arizona. He over performed in all the rural red states. Florida was razor thin. So with all that he barely won. Now, he has a terrible record. People are sick of his shit. Republicans have so pissed off old people with their “ let em die” Mantra and now ignoring the pandemic they’ve lost a sizable chunk of them. And they vote! All theses solid red states are close in polling. Yes a lot could happen between now and November but I would certainly rather be in this position than vice versa.

You homos are obsessed with Trump, Biden, and polls. I always thought your kind was obsessed with dark boys with huge poles. That’s what the church always said.

BTW, my daddy says the world is gonna end real soon, so it don’t matter who wins. I’m just waiting for the end days- while trying not to get a hard on when I watch David Muir’s newscast every night. I can’t keep repenting for jerking off, I’m running out of things to say

You know he is rigging a few of the polls that end up in the aggregate. It would only take a few, consistently, to skew the average. Especially the perpetual polls (like tracking polls etc)

And he’s STILL losing.

Biden is probably one of the least enthusiastic candidates we’ve had in a while yet I’ve never seen or heard people more enthusiastic to go cast their ballot for him in November. Literally people have not been this excited to cast her vote for someone in a long time.

R56, if you’re talking about the aggregate polling in 538, I think they take into account the reliability of each poll... I.e., if a poll is less reliable, it’s weighted less. Anyone have any info about that?

This is turning out to be a BRUTAL day of polling for Trump.

Two new polls today...

PPP: Biden up 14 in New Mexico. Last poll was from Emerson where Biden was up 8 in January. The thing about this poll is Biden only gained 1 point from 53 to 54. Trump fell to 39 from 46.

Epic-MRA: Biden is up 16 in Michigan. Previous polls from May and April have Biden up 2 and 8. Unlike New Mexico, both Biden and Trump have moved with Biden gaining and Trump falling nearly equally.

R57, slowly for the rest of us please because you left me in the dust with all that conflicting enthusiasm.

[quote] After the horror of 2016, we should have learned how worthless polls are.

Someone else explain it to this idiot. I just cant do it again.

Thanks, r60. The only interesting thing is where did those votes go in New Mexico? Biden increased his lead by 1 but Dump went down by 7.. I think if there are no third party candidates, those people won’t vote or will vote for Biden. Dump is losing the independents, by a lot.

R63 methodology accounts for some of it. There's also an 8% undecided in the PPP poll.

A tweet last night said something along the lines of “as election draws closer, the polls will tighten (as they always do), democrats will freak out & do something really stupid that will cost them more votes.”

It’s pretty much true.

Fuck that, r65. (And you.) It’s never happened before, why should it happen now?

Harry Enten:

The live interview national polls show Biden +10. They also show him doing disproportionately well with white voters and worse than with Hispanics than Clinton. If true, the shift from 16 should be bigger in Midwest and smaller in sunbelt on average.

**GEORGIA**

New poll from PPP

Biden (48%)

Trump (46%)

Ya know... I think a large "Mitch Must Go" march and protest would be quite effective right about now...

Biden is also doing really well with non-college white women. Which is huge because Republicans always do well with non-educated people.

Forcing repigs to spend money in places like Texas and Georgia is awesome

I'm wondering why Biden is doing worse with Hispanics than Hillary did (cf. R67). It would make more sense for him to pick an Hispanic woman as VP than a black woman.

R72 The Clintons were very popular with most Hispanics.

Can Joe stop with the mask hanging off one ear? lol. Just pull it down.

R72, the Hispanic pandering has never worked for a VP choice. They are conservative. Bernie has a guy who made him extremely popular with Latinos. Biden should have hired him.

They’re not conservative. That is the Cubans who get a free pass to enter our country because they vote red. Fact.

The Lincoln Project is doing all the cutthroat advertising against Trump so Biden doesn't have to.

There are a LOT of Latino Evangelicals. For years I thought most Latinos were Catholic, but the Evangelicals have a huge amount of support in that Ethnic group. I went to a traditional, seemingly normal Catholic church in Atlanta, last Fall, and maybe it's because I hadn't been in a while, but I remember feeling like it was very cultish. I felt very uncomfortable and out of place.

r76, see r78.

[quote] I went to a traditional, seemingly normal Catholic church in Atlanta, last Fall, and maybe it's because I hadn't been in a while, but I remember feeling like it was very cultish.

What does that have to do with evangelicals?

The 2020 election will be won in the Midwest as usual. Don't make the election too radical. And Biden may win.

R79 then Republicans will start to openly support illegal immigration?

r82, many latinos are anti-illegal immigrants.

[quote]The 2020 election will be won in the Midwest as usual. Don't make the election too radical. And Biden may win.

Robby Mook is with us.

R83 then they certainly shouldn’t support the Republican party.

Covid dissenters mix with the BLM movement and y'all think America is ready for change?

Covid hasn't gone anywhere. just cuz it isn't front line news doesn't mean it isn't there

r85, people who vote GOP have no logic to begin with. Many see them as the pro-business party and believe that by supporting them they'll suddenly become rich too. Then others fall for the social conservative pro-religion crap.

Nothing R80. It was stream of consciousness. I went off on a tangent thinking about the Catholics who are so conservative and shitty. Did you know that Alito, Kavanaugh, Roberts, Thomas , Sotomayor are Catholic, and Gorsuch was raised Catholic but is Episcopal now. The other three are Jewish.

Latinos are different in different parts of the country. They may be more liberal in California, but more conservative in Texas.

Planted piece? Or. legitimate/constructive criticism?

Trump has a point about the polls

Some pollsters are still grappling with the same problems that plagued battleground state surveys four years ago.

By STEVEN SHEPARD

06/17/2020 04:30 AM EDT

As President Donald Trump tumbles in the polls and falls further behind Joe Biden, his campaign has returned to a familiar refrain: The polls are underestimating Trump’s appeal again.

They have a point.

Pollsters aren’t deliberately skewing their surveys against the president and his party, as Trump’s orbit alleges. The national polls showing Trump trailing Biden by an increasing margin aren’t “phony” or rigged.

But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the same problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.

That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.

And those issues haven’t been fixed.

“I would say that most, if not all, of the concerns that we expressed still hold — some to a lesser degree,” said Courtney Kennedy, the director of research at the Pew Research Center and lead author of the polling industry’s post-2016 autopsy. “But I think some of the fundamental, structural challenges that came to a head in 2016 are still in place in 2020.”

Polling errors are not uncommon in presidential elections. But pollsters see a real risk this year that the same 2016 mistakes will be repeated. Their colleagues are still not accounting for the fact that voters with greater educational attainment are more likely to complete surveys — and more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.

“There’s still a number of state polls, in particular, that are not fixing this issue,” said Kennedy.

Biden’s current lead over Trump is so large — over 8 points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average, and an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that a 2016-level polling error wouldn’t matter. A lead that large would probably guarantee Trump would be denied a second term, and even a polling miss on par with 2016 wouldn’t be enough to overcome it.

But that doesn’t mean the president’s standing is quite as dire as it looks on paper — the same problem that pollsters identified in 2016 remains. Not enough surveys are being conducted in the battleground states, and those that exist are failing to account for a key political dynamic of modern politics, especially in the Trump era: the rapid movement of lower-income white voters to Republicans and upscale whites to Democrats.

Pollsters are looking for answers. One of the major takeaways of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s post-2016 autopsy was that state polls that didn’t weight, or adjust, their samples to include more white voters who hadn’t graduated college missed a key element of Trump’s coalition. In previous elections, the differences in white voters’ preferences along educational lines were smaller, but began to grow last decade and accelerated with Trump on the ballot in 2016.

“Before 2014, it wasn’t that big of a deal because the reality is non-college white voters and college-educated white voters — the distinction between the two wasn’t as dramatic,” said Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock. “But starting with 2014, that began to cleave a lot and is now obviously humongous.”

GOP pollster Glen Bolger said he believes a combination of pollsters’ inability to get the right educational mix and to convince potential Trump voters to respond and answer truthfully to phone polls is pointing their surveys in a slight Democratic direction.

“I don’t know how big the effect is. I also don’t know what the ratio is between it being ‘shy Trump’ voters and interviewing too many college graduates and not enough non-college grads,” Bolger said. “But I do think those are factors in some of the polls that show a particularly wide lead for Biden at this point in time. And I do think that things will be closer in the states that the polls indicate right now.”

The question of polling accuracy came to head last week, after CNN published a national survey showing Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump among registered voters, 55 percent to 41 percent. The Trump campaign immediately went on the attack against its frequent foe: First, Trump himself tweeted out an internal campaign memorandum — prepared by John McLaughlin, one of his campaign’s pollsters — calling the CNN survey “skewed” against the president.

Then, Trump’s campaign sent CNN a letter, demanding that the cable network retract the survey results and apologize. CNN stood by their poll, which generally follows best practices and does weight by education. The denouement of the episode was a contentious interview of Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis on a CNN “Reliable Sources” that descended into shouting. (The Trump campaign also demanded an apology from CNN over host Brian Stelter’s conduct in the interview.)

While the CNN poll shows a larger lead for Biden than others, they all show the presumptive Democratic nominee with a significant advantage. Trump hasn’t led a national poll in the RCP database since February, and a Washington Post analysis found that pollsters that have conducted multiple surveys this year have consistently showed Biden gaining and Trump falling in their most recent polls.

The bigger problem appears to be in state polls, as evidenced by CNN’s own polling standards. The network’s polling standards state it won’t report on election surveys that “do not ensure that respondents of all education levels are adequately reflected.”

Pollock, the Democratic pollster and president of Global Strategy Group, described making “a lot of investments” in updating his own firm’s education models. “And that in itself is like a seismic change. Because whenever you have one variable like that that is so critical, if you’re getting it wrong, then the whole poll is wrong,” he said.

At last week’s annual AAPOR convention — held online because of the coronavirus pandemic — Nate Cohn, the New York Times data journalist who has worked with Siena College on their multi-million dollar polling partnership, observed that the state polls leaned way too far toward Democrats in 2014 and 2016. In 2018, he said, the polls were more accurate but still showed a Democratic slant, especially “in a number of white, working-class states,” like Indiana and Ohio.

And, Cohn noted in his presentation, it might be happening again this year.

“So far in 2020, it sure seems like Joe Biden is faring particularly well in the states where the polls were most biased toward Hillary Clinton four years ago,” Cohn told the virtual attendees.

As if on cue, a new poll was released in Michigan on Tuesday: it showed Biden ahead by a whopping 16 points.

[quote]The 2020 election will be won in the Midwest as usual. Don't make the election too radical. And Biden may win.

That’s why Klobuchar should be the VP candidate...but she won’t be, because Twitter demands a black woman.

Biden himself says consider it a tie and fight for kicking trump's ass. these polls make voters complacent

R90, southwestern PA here. In 2016, I was one of a handful of posters who said the polls were off in PA. Last month, I said something similar and got shit for it. I completely understand where that article is coming from. There's still a lot of enthusiasm for Trump out here and it's not going to be a cakewalk win for Biden in PA.

Lots of polls out today...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2

Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2

Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 44 Biden +4

So basically Biden is ahead on every poll in every state.

That's a good way to approach it, R93. Smart of Joe and his team.

One thing these polls don’t account for us the fact that polls respond to peace more than chaos. With Trump, you see him on TV giving interviews, making statements to the press (or quarreling), tweeting, his tweets getting press, the whole nine yards. He’s visible and active, which means love him or hate him, your opinion is being fed.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, hasn’t been doing much. I know there’s a running joke that Joe has been in the basement for months, but there is some truth to that. We’re not inundated with Biden’s name or likeness or brand. That’s why people associate him with being the peaceful candidate. Because there’s no media circus around him.

This would be a sound electoral strategy had it not already been tried and failed by Hillary in 2016. The media tried to make Hillary seem like Adult in the Room, above the fray, not as rambunctious, and any scandals she had were just ho-hum, nothing to see here. I think people saw through it.

My prediction is Joe is going to lead Trump up to Election Day, and then a Trump is going to win.

R95 The polls are all over the map... all we can really say is that Biden is ahead, and the trend (from previous polls in the last couple months) show a shift to Biden. But nothing in the polls assure a big Biden win. There is still a lot of work to do...

Latino voters are not monolithic - yes, there is the "Cuban" phenomenon where the older Cubans are very right wing Republicans, younger Cubans not so much. And while there's been exponential growth of Latino evangelicals in the last 40-50 years, like black evangelicals, that doesn't always mean they vote Republican. Latinos voted for Democrats in the 2018 elections by 70%. They are a voting block that Joe absolutely needs to cultivate, and turn out in big numbers.

R98, sorry, but the adult-in-the-room is a very sound strategy right now. It wasn’t necessarily back in 2016, because of various reasons, but it’s what’s going to get Biden over the finish line, considering particularly all of the events of 2020 (and before).

I look at Michigan and Biden should be further ahead. Not by 4. That's practically a tie. As for the "shy" Trump voters? IMO the educated are shy, the ones who aren't educated will tell you proudly that they support Trump. I suspect there will be a lot of uneducated Biden voters who will be "shy."

When there's wide spread protests and civil disorder people tend to blame the incumbent. Ask Hubert Humphrey.

R101, that’s just one poll. Another has Biden up by 16 points.

[quote]I look at Michigan and Biden should be further ahead. Not by 4. That's practically a tie.

There’s a reason these are “battleground states.” They can go either way and nobody wins by a large margin.

MI was never really a battleground state until 2016 when it was mysteriously close.

R105 Exactly the Trump shift was to turn "the Blue Wall" (PA, MI, WI) into battleground states. Joe wins PA and MI the election is over.

R106 not quite. He’ll need another state. Arizona or Wisconsin.

R107 He’s ahead in plenty more. Vote!

[quote]Exactly the Trump shift was to turn "the Blue Wall" (PA, MI, WI) into battleground states.

Hillary’s team chose to largely ignore those states, assuming they were solid-blue. Very foolish.

Polls are not reliable but Biden's and Clinton's polls aren't really comparable. Biden is doing much better than Hillary ever did. I don't remember her taking double digits lead in those key states.

I also think that Biden is doing the right thing by not overexposing at this stage. Trump is doing pretty good job destroying himself for now. There will be pretty of opportunity to be out there as we get closer to November.

R101 the list at r95 is just today's polling numbers. There are polls coming out almost daily and from different pollsters.

R110, at one point during the last summer a few polls had Clinton with a double digit lead in PA.

R110 She didn’t ignore them. She concentrated on other states when polling showed her winning those blue states. She was sabotaged at the last minute.

She didn't ignore western PA. Clinton, Kaine and her surrogates were here all the time.

The difference between Biden and Hillary is that people like Biden. Even if they don’t, they’ll hold their noses and vote for him anyway. Lots of people couldn’t stomach the idea of Hillary as president so they either stayed home or decided to give trump a shot. Hillary lost the votes of people who disliked both her and Trump. Biden will win those people.

Comedy fucked her over. Hard.

R115 No, she had an unprecedented collage of people against her. Comey screwed her last minute. Still, she won the popular vote by a lot and no it wasn’t all California. She did better in Texas, Arizona and Georgia than any Democrat in decades. He ran up larger margins in all the rural red states.

R115 No, she had an unprecedented collage of people against her. Comey screwed her last minute. Still, she won the popular vote by a lot and no it wasn’t all California. She did better in Texas, Arizona and Georgia than any Democrat in decades. He ran up larger margins in all the rural red states.

[quote]She concentrated on other states when polling showed her winning those blue states. She was sabotaged at the last minute.

She was busy doing Hollywood fundraisers with Beyoncé. And people I’m the Rust Belt noticed. She sabotaged herself.

I don't know why people can't accept what happened in the 2018 midterms, and practically every election since Trump was elected. Democrats have been winning and outperforming for the past 4 years and that is going to continue in November. Things have only gotten worse for Republicans since 2018, not better. I'm afraid some of you lack common sense when it comes to politics.

Both Trump and Clinton were disliked by most voters in 2016. Voters who disliked both broke for Trump on election day. Biden is far more popular than Hillary, and polls show that among voters who dislike both, Biden wins by double digits. That's a big swing.

R120 Yes and no. Obama and democrats were devastated in the 2010 midterms... and yet Obama won handily in 2012. Midterms and general elections often differ in trends and outcomes.

R100 It would be if they weren’t trying to cultivate that impression of Joe by forcing him to keep a low profile. By not talking too much and saying everything the base wants to hear, he’s not making waves but he isn’t influencing people either.

Plus, it’s Joe Biden. If this were Mike Pence, I would say he’s closer to an actual adult-in-the-room candidate irrespective of his politics. Joe is known for being gaffe prone, and especially in his old age, he can be a little catty when he gets rattled.

So I think they’re going to try and let Joe slide all the way to the end to crate this “peaceful candidate” narrative, but it may backfire because people don’t entirely trust it.

R121 Right, and I think one should point out historical context as well. Democrats in 2018 had Russiagate and Kavanaugh hanging over Republicans head as recent and enduring scandals. I know it’s hard to know how coronavirus will affect voter outcomes, but I think it’s foolish to think people are going to blame Trump for COVID-19 en masse. I think the general public knows this was largely China’s mishandling. So I’ll be interested to see if Biden tries to play the “you weren’t prepared and people died because of you” Hurricane Katrina card. If he’s smart he won’t, but who knows.

To things we should always remember.1. A poll is a snapshot in time. What's important is a TREND in the polling over an extended period of time. 2. National polls are popularity contests. State polls are what matters.

State polls are popularity contests, by definition. They are what determines electors in Electoral College, so I guess is what's meant by the "national polls are popularity contests but state polls count."

As long as he’s doing well in the polls, Biden needs to keep quiet and let Trump tweet and ramble and insult everyone 24/7.

All the fretting over a last-minute rabbit-out-of-the-hat from Trump doesn't consider the historic turnout by Democrats in the 2018 mid-terms. Most votes by one party against another ever recorded IIRC. And even in last week's primary, with all the obstacles facing minorities and liberal enclaves, the Democrat turnout in Georgia was triple what it was in 2016, at over a million .Also, if the Democrats are smart, they'll put MUCH more emphasis on the child-rape accusations or pee-pee tape at the last minute. And they just might have those tax returns by then. Even though the Supremes have given us some victories this week, I don't completely trust them on this issue.

[quote] I know it’s hard to know how coronavirus will affect voter outcomes, but I think it’s foolish to think people are going to blame Trump for COVID-19 en masse. I think the general public knows this was largely China’s mishandling. So I’ll be interested to see if Biden tries to play the “you weren’t prepared and people died because of you” Hurricane Katrina card. If he’s smart he won’t, but who knows.

I disagree. I think trump has lost a lot of voters over the corona, his lack of leadership skills and wishy washy behavior and lies are on full display. His brainwashed supporters don't care, but many of those on the fringe have moved away from trump by this.

trump hasn't picked up any new voters since being voted in, but he has lost a shit ton.

[quote] Also, if the Democrats are smart, they'll put MUCH more emphasis on the child-rape accusations or pee-pee tape at the last minute.

You have no idea what you’re talking about. At all.

Any democrat would (or should) be winning right now given the current state of things.

Biden is average at best, most people know this. But he's a means to end at this point. We were clearly forced to take him, so you make the best of it. I suspect his role will be greatly limited once he gets into office anyway.

What most people are excited about and focus on is the VP choice and the administration, all the who will be doing the real heavy lifting and helping to transform the party into the future. We've got a ton of people with fresh ideas. Get them in their positions, and that's something to legitimately be excited about!

[quote]Also, if the Democrats are smart, they'll put MUCH more emphasis on the child-rape accusations or pee-pee tape at the last minute. And they just might have those tax returns by then

Agreed. Dems need to go low and release all this shit and hammer it 24/7. Even if there's no real proof, just get the narrative out there anyway and keep repeating it everywhere. Republicans do it all the time.

R128, yes, the GOP’s line, “it’s all China’s fault,” failed some time ago, because Trump couldn’t stay on-message. He’s the corpse at every funeral. Every issue becomes, inextricably, about him.

No one except the deplorables are in the mood right now for diversions. Not with a pandemic, a falling economy and civil unrest. The democrats need to focus on that. Digging up rumors and innuendos is a complete waste of time and could very well backfire on them.

Fix the economy.

Fix the police.

Fix healthcare.

Fix the coronavirus.

Dems absolutely should make his disastrous handling of COVID-19 a top issue. He and China can both be to blame but we had plenty of heads up while he dithered. He is an utter failure as a leader.

I don't plan to buy it BUT....

THE BOLTON BOOK WILL DO DAMAGE!

Harry Enten:

There are a lot of polls out there this week showing Biden's lead reaching a higher level than it has all year. Quite clear at this point that the protests + coronavirus + Trump's response to both has caused a real shift in the race.

Holy shit at the Bolton stuff. Dump should be impeached again, even though it won’t happen. Asking China’s president to help him get re-elected?? I wonder what else he’s done. I don’t think I can even imagine.

How do you guys expect Democrats to effectively make Trump the blame for coronavirus? The WHO has already come out and said China was stalling for weeks in giving them information and they were publicly praising China for their cooperation while seething behind the scenes that they were stalling.

Nobody blames Dump for coronavirus, People, not Democrats, will blame him for the way the crisis was handled and continues to not be handled.

I’m not liking these Pennsylvania numbers.

What Pennsylvania numbers?

What don’t you like? Biden is up by like 5 points.

R98, I reject your prediction. What makes you think Trump is going to come back from this hole?

R138, are you trolling? The polls clearly show that people have blamed and still blame Trump for the federal government’s mismanagement of the COVID crisis. It’s like you’re engaging in wishful thinking.

[QUOTE] What don’t you like? Biden is up by like 5 points.

That’s an average with a bunch of old polls factored in. The gap seems to get smaller and smaller.

R137 And the totally corrupt republicans won’t care.

Did anyone see Biden today speaking at a live event? I had CNN on and looked up and there he was.

He ripped Trump a new asshole about his lousy Covid response. This was in the morning. Did it even get any coverage?

R121 we lost both houses in 2010 because we didn't show up.Period, and the Republicans did. We lost control of the healthcare debate in 2009 when all the talk of death panels and taking away your doctor were promoted by the Repukes. Then there was the economy. The economic insecurity and fear were palpable and Obama's braintrust didn't get it. Read David Corn's book Showdown about 2010. The Republicans were motivated to show up and we sat on our asses.

Republicans show up no matter. Republican turnout was actually huge in 2012 and 2018. It’s just Democrats actually got offf their asses and voted too.

R149 correction- we only lost the House in 2010. We lost the Senate in 2014. Neither should have happened. Obama saved the fucking economy from utter disaster and saved the auto industry yet Dems got hammered. The economy was palatably on the upswing in 2010 yet they lost the messaging game and we didn’t vote. But we didn’t learn in 2014 either even with unprecedented republican obstruction.

R150 is correct. I don't know a Republican that doesn't scream, bitch spew venom and then hall every family member from 18 to over 100 yoa the polls to vote for their cult at each and every election. I dislike so many things about them - but I do admire their drive and devotion. Dems are not good at this historically. We did show up in 2018 and we can show up again in 2020. If the election were held this Tuesday, we would literally annihilate them. I realize that they cheat and cheat and cheat - like grandpappy's life depends on it, but we can still overcome. We just need to keep this momentum going.

R152, I was making calls for the DNC in 2018. We were calling people so much they were getting angry and screaming at us. For some of the local candidates, we called Republicans. That was awful. Most were rude and horrible. But we were told by calling Republicans you might get 2%, which could flip the race. And it did flip one race I know of. But it was hell. Repubs trying to make people cry, it was so bad.

Even though everyone with a pulse knew how bad it was, we had to drag people to the polls kicking and screaming. And the state Dem party had a horrible organization. We couldn’t get rides to the polls for people. Nothing set up for the disabled at all.

Some people decided to vote at the last second and had no way to get there. Some of the volunteers went out and dragged their neighbors to the polls. Transportation was just a total fuckup. We were told call a number and we would call it and nobody was helping there. Sometimes they didn’t even answer the phone. For days.

Lots of young people laughed it off and absolutely refused to vote. Said they’d rather go out drinking than vote, didn’t feel like it, their perfect candidate wasn’t running. Every excuse in the book.

Judging from that experience, people this year will get down on their knees and beg people to vote, and they’ll say they have to wash their hair. I’m not kidding, some people are just impervious to every possible argument you could possibly make. Polls don’t matter if they don’t show up to vote.

Get ready to start pressuring people to vote now, make sure friends and family are registered.

Thanks for posting that, R148! Biden did a great job.

The deficit Hillary had going after Trump was sounding like a bitchy wife. A turn-off for male voters. Biden going after Trump is machismo. Biden's not afraid of Trump and likes to turn the screws on him.

R155 No but it’s a good sound bite.

R156 Biden can get through to other men. Hillary couldn't.

Yet sh had to have an unprecedented coalition against her to defeat her. l got it.

People loved to hate on Hillary. Warren has somewhat of the same effect on many

Hillary did win the election. She should have been president. This whole covid mess would have been zapped in November.

There would be no babies be ripped from their parents and stuffed in cages. And then this to top it off:

“Thousands of Immigrant Children Said They Were Sexually Abused in U.S. Detention Centers, Report Says”

And they had the nerve to trash Hillary when this administration gassed its own people for a photo op.

Uh-Oh...

I believe this is the 2nd or 3rd Republican super PAC that has been formed that supports Biden;

Republican operatives launch new group supporting Biden

By Arlette Saenz, CNN

Updated 12:25 PM ET, Wed June 17, 2020

(CNN)A group of Republican operatives has launched a new super PAC to help turn out disaffected GOP voters for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, Matt Borges, a founder of the group, confirmed to CNN.

The group, called "Right Side PAC," will focus on targeting voters in battleground states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Borges, a former chair of the Ohio Republican Party and an alum of the George W. Bush administration, said. The group will focus on data, targeting and turnout, and does not have plans to run television or radio ads. Borges said the group will work to turn out "that group of Republicans who feels that Donald Trump is an existential threat to the country and this party."

"We're going to make people feel comfortable with the correction option -- pulling the lever for Joe Biden this year," he said.

Anthony Scaramucci, who served as White House communications director in the Trump administration for 10 days, is also part of the effort. Borges, who served on several Republican presidential campaigns, including the late John McCain's 2008 bid, said other alumni of the Bush and McCain campaigns are also participating, but he did not detail other names. Axios was first to report on the formation of this group.

The formation of the group is another example of efforts being made by anti-Trump Republicans to defeat the President in November.

In May, a group called Republican Voters Against Trump launched a $10 million ad campaign targeting GOP-leaning voters in top swing states to encourage them to support Biden. And a group of "Never Trump" Republicans formed the Lincoln Project in late 2019 and have run negative ads that have drawn the ire of Trump.

I’m starting to think that enough people are finally waking up that we’re actually going to get rid of this asshole.

New poll for Wisconsin will be released by Marquette on Wednesday, June 24th:

VOTE OUT COWARDS!

Thank you r165.

Wow, R162.

I don't remember this stuff ever happening to an incumbent before. Has it? Or is Dump the first?

It makes me emotional, to see Americans of both political parties, working so hard towards a common goal. I know it's for a limited time, blah blah...but still.

Lets hope there's an ongoing collaborative strategy r167.

Funny Republican outsiders will work for it but the brave men and women of the House and, in particular, the Senate.

Fuck you, Mitch.

[quote]People loved to hate on Hillary. Warren has somewhat of the same effect on many

Yes, they're called sexists

[quote]Anthony Scaramucci, who served as White House communications director in the Trump administration for 10 days, is also part of the effort.

Well, that should certainly win over voters!

Rasmussen now has Trump’s approval rating at 47%.

Oh, I see, no flaws in Warren or Clinton or, I guess, any woman candidate.

It's just sexism.

OK.

You need to read the most recent polls.

Trump has spiraled down 13 percent now.

Harry Enten:

Polls over the last few weeks have shown 1. Record low happiness for Americans. 2. Record low pride in being an American. 3. 80% say things are out of control in USA. 4. 20 pt rise in 3 months (!) & highest number in years saying we're on the wrong track.

Cook Political Report:

Montana Senate Moves to Toss Up

June 18, 2020

I thought Bullock was up by 4 not too long ago.

Well it was lean Republican. Hence those 4points moved it to toss up.

R177, I believe that prior polls called this a statistical tie because there were/are a number of undecided voters out there.

As the Cook Political Report article says, the Montana Senate race will be close and can go either way, but Bullock gives the Dems a chance of a pickup that they didn't have before.

Yes, r172, I saw that. They must have realized their error and cooked the numbers. They typically cycle between 44 and 50, like clockwork.

**New Fox poll shows Biden's national lead widening to 12 points**:

Biden 50%

Trump 38%

[June 13-16, Registered Voters]

Oh dear. Get ready for another twitter tirade tonight.

I'm glad he's suffering. The polls most of all will drive him crazy and I'm glad of it.

Worst president ever.

So is he going to sue Fox over the poll?

I'm telling you...get ready for candidate Romney.

Trump's entire Twitter feed right now is nothing but money that he's handing out to states for various projects. E like Oprah giving away cars right now. I thought think he's trying to distract from the Fox poll.

I think if he hits 35 percent, there might be some movement to get him to resign. On the other hand, I don’t see him going voluntarily unless the Godfather makes him an offer he can’t refuse. (By Godfather I mean Putin, of course.) I don’t even know who would replace him... so I think Republicans will go down with the ship.

HA! TRUMP WANTS MORE THAN 3 DEBATES!

Here's proof Donald Trump knows he's losing

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 7:13 PM ET, Thu June 18, 2020

(CNN)On Thursday, President Donald Trump's campaign began a push for more than the traditional three general election debates with former Vice President Joe Biden.

The effort, which is being led by none other than former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, amounts to the most clear evidence yet that -- despite all of his public bluster -- the President knows he is losing right now.

Remember that as recently as last December, Trump was contemplating sitting out the general election debate season entirely.

Biden's campaign isn't biting.

"We are not going to ride the roller coaster of the ever-changing Trump campaign position on debates, nor are we going to be distracted by his demands," his deputy campaign manager, Kate Bedingfield, said in a statement.

So how did we get from there to here? Simple. Trump's political fortunes have declined significantly in recent months, with his uneven handling of the protests that arose in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd last month tanking his poll numbers. Trump's approval rating in Gallup data took a double-digit hit in recent weeks and a slew of swing state and national polling shows him trailing Biden by significant margins.

It's absolutely no coincidence that faced with those numbers, the Trump campaign has reversed its position on debates. Conventional political wisdom dictates that the candidate pushing for more debates is the candidate who is trailing. That person needs debates to create a moment (or moments) that can change the momentum and trajectory of the contest. That person isn't usually the incumbent. Typically challengers push for more debates because they need a forum to land the one big punch that can change things.

And so, it's very telling that Trump now finds himself needing more than the standard three debates. It means that the President doesn't think he's winning right now -- and doesn't necessarily see a way to get to victory without more debates.

The Point: Ignore what Trump says and tweets about how great a shape his re-election bid is in. This push for more debates says more than a thousand of those tweets.

He's still close enough in swing states to possibly win the electoral college. He'll never try to weasel out of a loss until it's clear he can't win the electoral college. He's still very viable, very dangerous.

If he loses by 10% in the national popular vote but wins the Electoral College the Dems could still also win the Senate. That'd be interesting... talk about 4 more years of complete chaos and one constitutional crisis after another. In this scenario I'd wager there'd be a lot of interest in a constitutional amendment getting rid of the EC.

[quote]He's still close enough in swing states to possibly win the electoral college. He'll never try to weasel out of a loss until it's clear he can't win the electoral college. He's still very viable, very dangerous.

Well, shouldn't Democrats be coming up with strategies NOW to capture the electoral college?

If they got rid of him the Republicans would lose in an epic landslide in all elections in November. The deplorables would be pissed and would never support a Romney or even a Christie.

R189 the Democrats would have what it takes to impeach him then. Another reason for him to bow out now.

R190 Well, they are, of course. What makes you say they aren't? Negative Hillary Nostalgia?

Putin doesn't want him out. But right now Putin has troubles of his own. Things are not looking good for him in Russia.

[quote]If he loses by 10% in the national popular vote but wins the Electoral College the Dems could still also win the Senate

If he loses by more than 10% in the popular vote and wins the EC, then expect massive protests and nationwide calls to abolish the electoral college for once and for all.

No fucking way are people going to sit back and let this guy get in again if he lost by 15% to Biden in the popular vote. You know how many millions of votes difference that would be?

I don’t know why we have to keep repeating this, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Republican candidate to lose by 10% in the PV and win the EC. Utterly impossible. Quit thinking that that’s even a thing that could ever happen.

If the Democratic candidate wins by 6% or more, he wins the EC. Period. Any pollster on Twitter will tell you this.

Thanks, r196 I’ve also read this as well and was just going to comment. No way Biden wins by 10 percent of the vote and loses the EC.

I'm surprised that the Florida poll from TIPP didn't get more coverage this week. It has Biden up by 11 points!! The same pollster has Biden up by 13 points in Michigan. This pollster was the most accurate during the 2016 election, btw.

It shows Trump's support cratering among older voters in Florida. With a second wave of coronavirus hitting Florida at the moment, things aren't looking too good for Trump right now.

[quote]This pollster was the most accurate during the 2016 election, btw.

Receipts, r198.

Imagine where we’ll be by November.

Covid will be rampaging wildly through the populace, and guys will be driving down the street in refrigerated trucks crying, “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” States with a lot of Trumpers who went to Trump rallies will be worse off than anyone.

That ought to make Trump popular.

Even some of the closer polls have Biden way up in FL. The elders are pissed and the entire Republican Party will pay. Lose old people you also lose a lot of your white support which is showing up in polls. A republican needs about 60% of the white vote to win. He’s at 53%.

I dunno about that one r201, don't discount the culture wars being drummed up again successfully. Older whites are seeing statues torn down, their cities looted, the products of their childhood getting "cancelled" and the police getting their asses handed to them. These people are very easy to scare. Karl Rove was a master at this.

R188 maybe I missed it in your article but I didn’t see where Trump called for more than three debates.

And again, I’ll remind you guys: Joe hasn’t said or done anything. How many articles, good or bad, are being written about Joe Biden or his campaign? The only time you hear about Biden is in thee polls showing he’s winning, but winning on what? Messaging? His policy ideas? His popularity seems almost entirely based on people’s about Trump. In polls that may bode well, but in reality that points to a lack of enthusiasm among the base.

Say what you will: some people actually like Trump. They want to vote for him. Joe’s problem, the one not being addressed, is that he’s not going to get a strong showing just on Trump hate.

R203 - I hear you and I do agree that closer to the election Joe will need more visibility. That said - I think that you are underestimating Trump hate. Those of us who thought W was unpleasant have a whole new level of understanding exactly what BAD really looks like. Those who dislike Trump actually find him horrifying - and for a literal plethora of very different, very severe reasons.

[quote]In polls that may bode well, but in reality that points to a lack of enthusiasm among the base.

That in no way conflates. The only demonstration of a lack of enthusiasm among the base is questions about enthusiasm for him. What basis do you have for that assertion other than projection, Eyeore?

“Some pollsters underestimate support for Republican candidates.” @gelliottmorris goes under the hood of our 2020 election forecast on the latest “Checks and Balance” podcast

R203 is a well known Trumpster troll. All it cares about is sowing division. Best to ignore it. Don’t feed the trolls!

[quote]Don’t feed the trolls!

I try not to, but they're so cute when their tongues wag idiotically!

The chaos reflects poorly on Trump though, R201. He's clearly not the man to deal with any of this.

Panicking over the polls, Trump went all Oprah on his twitter feed last night:

Arkansas, you get $40 million!

Kentucky, you get $55 million!

Colorado, $60 million for you!

etc. etc.

[quote]New Fox poll shows Biden's national lead widening to 12 points

Per Kyle Griffin, Biden's lead comes from the backing of black voters (+79 points over Trump), those under age 30 (+37), suburban areas (+22), women (+19), and voters ages 65+ (+10).

[quote] Joe’s problem, the one not being addressed, is that he’s not going to get a strong showing just on Trump hate.

Where is your evidence for this? I keep seeing this posted as if it were true, but no argument, no evidence.

What is this talk about Joe Biden staying silent and no having said or done anything? I'm constantly seeing statements from him (a speech yesterday, for example) and ads—all of them punchy and impressive. Through the lockdown he's been giving interviews and doing podcasts, which I know about from mainstream sources. I think R203 is a troll.

[quote]Joe’s problem, the one not being addressed, is that he’s not going to get a strong showing just on Trump hate.

JB is doing fine. Trump is digging himself a ditch and therefore we must get out of his way. Let him dig, honey. Dig! Dig! Dig!!!

We'll see you in August, Joey!

This new Biden ad is great:

^LOVE IT!!!!

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·1h.

@FoxNews is out with another of their phony polls, done by the same group of haters that got it even more wrong in 2016. Watch what happens in November. Fox is terrible!

R215, I got fucking misty! He really honed in on a very key message that is Dump’s biggest failing: “This job isn’t about me. It’s about you. It’s about us.”

“It’s about us” should be a campaign slogan.

R203 You do realize you are simply incorrect, right?

Given the pandemic's impact on in-person campaigning, Biden has been effectively present in the media. I see his ads every time I use YouTube, I get texts/emails from his campaign several times a day, his Twitter feed has been well managed - trolling Trump just enough, but delivering a positive, disciplined message. In mainstream media he's had just the right contrast with Trump - e.g. the day Trump gassed protestors so he could stand in front of a church and awkwardly hold up a bible, Biden in split screen was actually IN a church, praying and talking to black religious leaders. Joe will make his usual gaffes in the months to come... but so far his campaign has been skilled and visible.

And to say "we don't see him yet" is some talking point you want to troll with, you may even believe, but is in error.

r203 is just ridiculous. His stubbornness reflects the reality he wants to see. He must be a Kamalastan or a troll.

I hope when Trump loses he cries on national television and shouts “ I am not a loser! I am not a one term loser!”

Biden is always on CNN. R203 is full of shit.

The Trump Troll playback is to try to portray Biden as scared of Trump (as if), and too doddering/out of it to make many public appearances.

playbook!!!

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

― Napoleon Bonaparte

Thanks, Boney, I'll remember that!

Biden has one thing Trump doesn’t: his entire brand, his whole career, has been about the working class.

From the way he talks about his childhood, his family having to move in with the grandparents when his dad lost his job, and having to relocate to get another job, to his Scranton ties, to his plain way of speaking, Biden has a very long career of identifying with the working class. Trump pretends to his brainwashed followers to be what Biden effortlessly is.

There’s no way Trump can even try to frame Biden as, he’s a spoiled rich guy. That’s why they’re attacking Biden for his age. Because that’s all they’ve got.

The people that left the Democratic Party in 2016, the Trump base, had been feeling left out of the party for a long time. With Hillary’s relentless emphasis on young people going to college, she made them feel like the world was moving on without them. To be fair, Obama started that. Hillary just made the party seem like it was for college grads only. It was very off-putting for the poor, for whom college is a distant dream. They felt locked out of the future of the party, and there was Trump saying he had a place for them.

It’s great to address college debt, but those aren’t the swing voters. Those people got their education, they have at least some chance of upward mobility. The swing voters are the disenfranchised, blue collar poor that have been left behind. Those are Trump’s base. And Biden has a better shot at them than anyone we’ve run for years. You won’t see Biden talking about how school is the only path to a paycheck. Look at that commercial at R215. He calls them essential workers, he gives them their respect back. He doesn’t say, you’re not good enough unless you move up the ladder, he says what Trump did in 2016. You’re good enough right where you are, we need to get you more pay. Wages have been stagnant for decades. That’s the right message.

Joe’s other new ad.

I’m not going to go back and forth with you bitches who just want to gaslight every person who dares to rain on your parade with inconvenient truths about how polls work.

Almost every major poll showed a Trump losing handily to Clinton in 2016, but he didn’t. So before you start talking yourself out of acknowledging these polls could be wrong for some of the same reasons, maybe ask yourselves how they shit wrong four years ago and if the methodology has changed to accurately reflect the electorate.

The bottom line is this: Biden was chosen by Democrats because in a sea of uninspiring, Tank-and-file lefty candidates, he could appeal to the broadest base. But unless he starts making significant in roads with midwestern voters Democrats have been losing since 2012, Joe is going to do exactly what Hillary did: run up the vote in a bunch of states he was going to win anyway, and still wind up losing to Trump on the EC votes.

Biden needs to stake out in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina

[QUOTE] I’m not going to go back and forth with you

Then by all means please shut the fuck up already, R229.

All right, R229, who should he pick then? Klobuchar is out.

Hillary didn’t lose because of Tim Kaine, although he certainly didn’t do one damn thing to help. She lost because she, Hillary, lost the Trump base, people who have lost ground, lost wages, lost jobs, lost respect. People who felt left behind. Tim Kaine is not responsible for that in any way. No one said, “Tim Kaine! Why, I’ll never vote for Hillary now!” Not one single person.

If you can win enough of the Trump base, you can win. Look at Biden’s ads. He’s hitting those people right in the heart.

Don’t feed the trolls! R229 is the trolliest troll today.

But Hillary failed to pick a running mate that mitigated her very daunting weaknesses. Tim Kaine is so milquetoast that she didn’t get any Boost by having a southern running mate. He didn’t even seem like Much of a southerner despite having an accent

[quote] Almost every major poll showed a Trump losing handily to Clinton in 2016, but he didn’t. .... But unless he starts making significant in roads with midwestern voters Democrats have been losing since 2012 ....

No, the polls showed him losing the popular vote to Clinton by a narrowing margin of a few points, which he did. Analysts predicted his loss in the electoral college, based (wrongly, as it turned out) on his losing to Clinton in the key swing states—which he won by extremely narrow marginss (PA, MI, WI). And Biden is polling far above Trump in those three states and even running at least even with him now in OH and IA. Time will tell, as always, but your premises are screwed up, troll.

I watch those ads and Biden looks and sounds and feels like a damned President to me.

Mighty Joe Biden? The man is senile. This is like the emperor’s new clothes. It's bizarre and frightening.

FF r237

Okay... I'll bite, R237

What's your solution? If you feel that Biden is an unsuitable candidate what are you going to do?

FF for having an opinion. FF for telling the truth.

You deserve what you're going to get, R238

Pot stirrer and an artless one at that.

[quote]What's your solution? If you feel that Biden is an unsuitable candidate what are you going to do?

What I'm NOT going to do is call this moribund mentally confused old man "mighty"....I'm NOT American so I have no say anyway, but to say I should be FFd for nor pretending this old dodderer is some "mighty" man who's going to save America from Trump won't change the truth.

If it wasn't so sad, it would be almost funny.

[quote]Pot stirrer and an artless one at that.

Are you KIDDING?

OK - he's great. A true leader of men....with a long and great future as President. Two terms maybe - how old will that make him?

He is none of those things. You're projecting what you feel you need to project, which is odd given you don't even have a horse in the race.

[quote]What I'm NOT going to do is call this moribund mentally confused old man "mighty"....I'm NOT American so I have no say anyway,

SO, THEN! MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS!

[quote]You're projecting what you feel you need to project, which is odd given you don't even have a horse in the race.

I'm not "projecting" ANYTHING.

[quote] you don't even have a horse in the race.

Exactly.

So what is the point of your baseless opinions? And existence, for that matte.r

[quote]So what is the point of your baseless opinions?

Baseless? I've seen footage of this guy - he's CONFUSED, MENTALLY, due to senility.

Seriously, you come in here, hurling accusations like moribund and mentally confused without a single piece of even old example, all of which have been refuted before. You've got an axe to grind, fine, but can the I've got some wisdom you don't routine, because you're evidently full of shit, impressing only yourself, and probably that's the extent of your circle of friends, given your evident charm and intelligence.

CAPS don't prove a point, dear.

Oh, but it does, honey...

OK...I'll let you get on with it.

No more comments from me.

Good luck with Great-Grandpa Biden.

Trump’s brain is caving in like a collapsed soufflé, yet someone purportedly concerned with mental health is advocating for him . . .

Thanks, R252. Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out!

[quote]Hillary, lost the Trump base, people who have lost ground, lost wages, lost jobs, lost respect. People who felt left behind.

Are people still pushing this narrative? The core Trump base is racist, that is why they voted for him. How much more info do you need?

[quote]Trump’s brain is caving in like a collapsed soufflé, yet someone purportedly concerned with mental health is advocating for him . . .

I never in a million years advocated Trump.

[quote]I never in a million years advocated Trump.

Nor, have you suggested an alternative. Therefore, you have advocated Trump

There is no fucking alternative, is there?

R229 You don't want to go back and forth? Then stop posting on DL... otherwise you are just jerking off.

The polls in 2016, as the last weekend led to election day, were not that far off. The final popular vote was within the margin of error of the final polls, which had tracked a shift to Trump after the Comey nonsense. The exit polls were the ones that were off.

The polls predicting a Blue Wave in 2018 were accurate - and in many cases underestimated the shift in the House.

Current polls show Biden with a significant lead. Anything could happen between now and November. So stop posting until after November, k?

Harry Enten:

Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out why it may not be), it would be the largest win for a Dem since LBJ in 64.

Good, but I hate seeing stuff like that. It breeds unwise overconfidence, in friggin June!!!

Besides burying Trump Democrats MUST bury the current Republican party too. Lindsey Graham should be vilified because he is Trumps best friend. But, a whole lot of them need to be taken down and/or badly damaged because of this mess.

Marco Rubio

Rick Scott

Susan Collins

Joni Ernst

Thom Tillis

MITCH MCCCONNELL

OH! there are SO many!

Don’t even think about adding ME to your list, R262, I have a family to feed!

Cook Political Report:

New Electoral College Ratings

June 19, 2020

Iowa: Likely R to Lean R

Michigan: Toss Up to Lean D

Ohio: Likely R to Lean R

With just under five months until the election, President Trump is a severe underdog for re-election. Polls show that voters do not trust him to handle the two most pressing issues of the day — the coronavirus pandemic and race relations — which has helped drive his job approval to 41 percent. National polling averages show him losing to Joe Biden by 9 points.

Joe Biden needs to shore up his economic numbers. For some odd reason, voters still trust Trump more on the economy and that’s no good. Joe should spend more time talking up healthcare, middle class tax cuts and help for small businesses. Don’t lose sight of the big picture.

National Polling Throwback:

June 19, 2016: Clinton: 40% Trump: 35% Lead: Clinton +5

June 19, 2020: Biden: 50% Trump: 41% Lead: Biden +9

Biden IS emphasizing those things, R265. His latest ad is all about jobs and money (not making Clinton's mistake of talking more abstractly about "the economy").

Good

[quote]For some odd reason, voters still trust Trump more on the economy and that’s no good.

There’s a widespread belief among voters that Republicans do better on economic issues than Democrats, even though it’s patently untrue. So I take that with a grain of salt.

This is a good sign...

For the first time in 2020, Biden's monthly fundraising haul is higher than Trump's

BY SARAH EWALL-WICE

JUNE 20, 2020 / 1:49 PM / CBS NEWS

The Republican National Committee announced Saturday that the Trump campaign, RNC and joint fundraising committees raised $74 million in May, a record for them in monthly fundraising. But for the first time in this election cycle, Joe Biden and the DNC brought in more money in a month than Mr. Trump, with Biden's campaign reporting a more than $80 million cash haul in May.

Mr. Trump maintains a massive cash war chest. According to the RNC, its entities had $265 million cash on hand at the end of last month after raising more than $817 million over the course of the 2020 election season so far.

While the Biden campaign has not yet released its cash on hand total for the end of May, as of April, the former vice president was facing about a $100 million disadvantage to the president.

"After yet another massive fundraising haul, it remains clear that the enthusiasm behind President Trump's re-election campaign goes unmatched," said Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale in a statement. "While Sleepy Joe Biden lobs ineffective partisan attacks from the shadows of his basement, President Trump is leading The Great American Comeback and he is drawing support from every corner of this country."

The fundraising announcement comes as Mr. Trump returned to the campaign trail on Saturday with a rally in Tulsa and Trump Victory resumes field operations in states that allow it after the coronavirus shut down most in-person activity for more than three months. Mr. Trump's Tulsa rally will be his first since March, despite health concerns from some local officials as COVID-19 cases continue to climb. Mr. Trump's campaign claimed more than one million people requested tickets for the event.

The RNC also recently announced the hiring of 300 additional field staffers, bringing the Trump Victory efforts in target states to more than 1,100. The Trump campaign and RNC says it's investing in the largest field program and data operation in party history, with more than 1.3 million volunteers and more than 45 million voter contacts.

Meanwhile, this month, the president also returned to in-person fundraising after having to raise funds online last month due to the pandemic. Additionally, the campaign and RNC also announced their largest single online fundraising day to date on Mr. Trump's birthday on June 14. Together, they raised $14 million online in just 24 hours. The average donation was $46.

"President Trump's consistent leadership and unprecedented actions during this challenging time has undoubtedly resonated with the American people," said RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement. "Support across the country continues to pour in, helping us to build an unparalleled operation that will deliver victories up and down the ballot in November."

As for Biden, in the wake of his massive cash haul, his campaign announced a $15 million, five-week advertisement blitz. The campaign hasn't aired paid ads on the television airwaves since early March. The move signals their growing financial footing despite their cash disadvantage. When announcing their $80.8 million cash haul, the Biden campaign also said more than half of last month's donors were new, showing they continue to grow their base heading into the summer.

Presidential campaigns and party committees are required to file their May fundraising numbers with the Federal Election Commission by June 20.

Well when you're down in the polls and everything is going against you, you pull whatever shit out of your ass that looks halfway decent... fundraising. Bernie did the same thing.

I should be more clear...r271 is related to the RNC / Brad Parscale portion of the article. Biden is rocking to polls.

"Don't believe the polls: Trump's populist presidency may carry him to victory in 2020" via @TheHillOpinion

R273 Nope. I don’t count him out but no. He’s a disaster. In.every.way.

Amen R274. The only reason that I don't count him out is the RAMPANT GOP cheating (on their own and using foreign governments as well). Without that, they got NOTHING.

Has this been discussed? In Joe’s YouTube add his messes up the sentence saying “I need a favor for to ask” or some messed ip wording.

^ lmao. I always mess up when typing on my phone.

Harry Enten:

"There's no sign of 'hidden' Trump voters"... I hear often that Trump supporters are afraid to admit that they are backing Trump. Problem is Trump's was down 10 points this week in polls NOT involving a live interviewer.

How is Trump faring with Independents? Take a look.

“ Here is Trump's standing now among Independents in every state, converted into Electoral College format.

I'm not kidding.”

Wow r279. It is so imperative we don’t take our foot off the gas, but I’d much rather be in this position now that the reverse. Those numbers are staggering.

Good

Trafalgar has Biden up 1 in Michigan. Trafalgar was the only pollster that had Trump ahead in Michigan (+2) in 2016.

God bless The Lincoln Project.

[R283] OMFG, this is the funniest so far. Keep it up, rhinos.

HAHAHAHAHAHahahaha @283.

That was hilare

[quote]Wow [R279]. It is so imperative we don’t take our foot off the gas, but I’d much rather be in this position now that the reverse. Those numbers are staggering.

EXACTLY!!! WORK HARDER!!!

Take NOTHING for granted!!!

I feel like the country is the possessed Regan and it’s a battle between Father Merrin and the devil.

Had on NPR on the car radio between 11:00AM and 12:00Noon Eastern today. There are still a lot of butt hurt "progressives" out there planning on pulling a Susan Sarandon and either not voting or voting for Trump because Biden isn't "liberal" enough.

How much stupider can a so-called progressive be?

Is the anti-Biden, not-from-America, 'Concerned European', perhaps? If so, he's been up Bernout's wrinkled, useless ass forever.

Where IS Bernie by the way? One would think, if he truly cared, he'd be front and center, walking the walk or at least blathering his blather. But, no Bernie for months! Too weak to leave his bed? Building a new home with all of the $27 donations he fleeced?

Bill Kristol@BillKristol

You look at the polls and think "he can't win." But Trump's path to victory doesn't depend on persuading Americans. It depends on voter suppression, mass disinformation, foreign interference, and unabashed use of executive branch power to shape events, and perceptions, this fall.

Harry Enten:

For me, personally, I think the President is in deep trouble because he's down 10, Biden's at 50%+, and Biden is more trusted than Trump on both race relations and the coronavirus...

[R288]Actually Sarandon voted for independent Jill Stein I believe.Which was still basically a vote for Trump.Those people enrage me in a way I can barely contain.And I’m Canadian!!

R282, it's possible that the race in Michigan will be close again, but Trafalgar is a C- pollster according to 538's rankings.

Cook Political Report recently moved Michigan from Toss Up to Lean Dem.

The GOP sycophants in the media such as the writers of the article at R273 keep hiding behind "populism" because they refuse to say out loud that the only way Trump can win at this point is cheating. I can't believe Bill Kristol of all people is willing to admit it.

[R294]That’s the point,isn’t it?Trump and the Repubs are so good at cheating that they could still pull this thing off.Constant vigilance is needed.Never take ANYTHING for granted!

It's not the point if it's not admitted. Trying to convince the populace that Trump is still popular enough to win only serves to legitimize him. Acknowledging the real risk that he will cheat because that's the only way he'll win is the check on corruption the press is supposed to serve as.

Something is going on. The donors must be nervous...

GOP@GOP·2h

There is no denying there is unmatched enthusiasm for President Trump!

✔️RNC + @TeamTrump have a $150+ million cash on hand advantage over the DNC + Biden campaign

✔️Trump Victory has engaged & trained over 1 million volunteers

✔️Trump Victory has state directors in 23 states

[R296]Fair point.I’m agreeing with you.

R295

Republicans would be wiped out across the country if they didn’t use various forms of cheating. They’re weak if they feel the need to cheat.

Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12

Last Harris Poll from mid-May had Biden +6.

[quote] There is no denying there is unmatched enthusiasm for President Trump!

Oh, there’s unmatched enthusiasm all right. But it’s only among his base, which is 35% of the electorate. Nearly everyone else is over it.

He even has plus the 65+ crowd against him. That’s pretty devastating. Especially in Florida. He is doing terribly among many demographics. We are all sick of this.

R302, excellent point about Florida, which he absolutely needs.

Trump cannot win without Florida, so I hope he continues his downward spiral.

All the polls from Florida have been looking Not only good for Biden but great for Biden. I saw a pundit say that it was because of seniors turning against our current prez by over 10 points.

Ron Brownstein:

Another survey, this by respected Republican pollsters @EchelonInsights, showing Trump stuck down in the low 40s (42 here), w/no movement since May. His approval also 41 both on job & virus. Across virtually all polls, he's a long way from his 46% in 16.

Like the thugs GAF how badly he's losing in Florida.

They have the prick desantis in place to cheat. Just like he did in 2018.

Rethugs always cheat. Always.

Look. If a damned cocker spaniel had to nomination that's who I'm voting for. We are running to get TRUMP out of the fucking White House. I will wipe the drool from Biden's chin. We are going to restore COMPETENCE and DECENCY, and ETHICAL CONDUCT to our government. A Democratic victory will insure competent people are part of government and intelligence is respected. So anyone who has a problem with that can fuck off.

“ His approval also 41 both on job & virus. Across virtually all polls, he's a long way from his 46% in 16.”

Uh, five percent is not a huge lift when you have over four months to go, debates, a doozy of an October Surprise, and Trump throwing every outrageous stunt and tactic at Biden and Democrats.

[quote] I saw a pundit say that it was because of seniors turning against our current prez by over 10 points.

I’d like to see receipts.

Four and a half months is a very long time

Really, R310? You haven't been paying attention?

"Recent polls have given the Democratic challenger a small but consistent lead—movement driven largely by shifting views among voters over the age of 65. Senior voters are always crucial, as they vote at higher rates than any other age group. But they’re particularly important in Florida, where they make up almost 21% of the population, a higher percentage than every other state except Maine. In the latest Quinnipiac poll for Florida, Biden held a 10-point lead among respondents over 65. It’s an astonishing figure, given that in 2016, Trump carried the state’s seniors by 17 points. Other recent polls haven’t quite matched the Quinnipiac numbers, but they have shown substantial movement among seniors toward Biden. Given that Trump won Florida by just nearly 113,000 votes, but carried seniors handily by some 330,000, even small shifts in senior voting could turn Florida blue in 2020."

Did anyone see the Biden/Obama online event today? They covered a lot of issues.

Global warming: Biden says it’s not just about the environment, it’s also about people in countries affected becoming refugees and ending up in other countries en made.

Our international standing in the world: Biden says the first thing he’s going to do is get on the phone with allies and start healing relationships.

Obama says their team experience with Ebola is a good model, they coordinated with dozens of countries and arranged for medical evacuation and care for any international medical personnel that became ill themselves. He thinks the answer to Covid is more international strategy.

Taxes: repeal tax cuts for the rich.

Obama mentioned that the Republicans were always saying there was no money for social services programs, but they were happy to give billions to their rich friends.

Both: there’s a new epoch where people are getting out in the streets. Biden kept saying, this is a moment when we can get big changes because there’s momentum now. People aren’t apathetic and staying at home any more, they’re out fighting. He says he’s never been more hopeful.

Lots of minutiae about policy. Obama was telling people, vote, we need Joe. He was very serious in his demeanor, not much smiling or joking. He talked about Biden’s experience in the Senate. He was wearing black, which was interesting.

Obama also told people, whatever you have done so far, you haven’t done enough. He told people to talk to their older relatives and friends about why they should vote for Biden. Keep after them. He said, they won’t listen to me, but they’ll listen to you. (I don’t know if that’s true, but for some people it could be I guess).

Where is coverage of this?

Anyone know how the Booker McGrath race is going in Kentucky?

Too early to know

R316, McGrath ahead so far.

Thanks, r318.

I watched, R313. I was very impressed with what Biden and Obama covered. It wasn't just a nostalgia game or a shit-on-Dotard thing. They have plans, solid plans, that can help make us all safer and more prosperous but only if everyone gets off their asses to help plus VOTE BLUE.

Joe sounded and looked great, by the way. He even threw in a jaunty one-handed swallow of water. Effortless, of course.

R320 Yep, so critical for the next few months. Continue to present something to vote FOR, not just something to vote against. One smart analysis of Trump's Emptyberg Address in Tulsa was.... this all the same stuff as 2016 and it sounds old and tired. Maggie Trumplover in the NYT compares Trump's return to the greatest hits (racism, anti-immigrant, divisive, grievance-driven babble) was like Rod Stewart in concert, given the fans Maggie May because he knows that's what they want and he needs their approval.

I think Trump's "message" is stale to some, more like Fonzi on those waterskies jumping the shark than Rod Stewart croooning.

Biden looks like shit. Stick him in a nursing home and let Pete run.

Helpful, Amy.

R322 Because the current President is so lovely.

I've realized he's really like President Liberace with Walter Mercado's hair and Mitzi Gaynor orange base makeup

There are times I believe the president says and does outrageous things as a way of figuring out who among his staff, as well as elected representatives, will come out against him.

Not that I believe anything president fat ass has to say. He doesn't care about his country, the place he was elected to uphold by all measures of the constitution of the USA.

Poor R322. He wasn't one of the over 175,000 people who watched the grassroots virtual earlier this evening. I'm sure Pete watched, R322.

Sad that you were left out. Maybe next time, buddy!

Trump is on the air around the clock in the very expensive Philly media market. The ads are getting better but I'm not sure who they're for. What can an ad tell you about Donald Trump? Love him or hate him, not sure a 30 second ad makes a difference when he's all over the news, every single day, defining himself as America's reigning idiot king.

You could tell Hillary was in a bit of trouble in 2916 because, while she consistently polled better than Trump, her numbers rarely left the mid 40s. That suggested lots of undecideds, and those people generally broke for Trump.

That's really not happening this time. There are few undecideds, and Biden is in the 50s. He's in a great position.

You could tell Hillary was in a bit of trouble in 2916 because, while she consistently polled better than Trump, her numbers rarely left the mid 40s. That suggested lots of undecideds, and those people generally broke for Trump.

That's really not happening this time. There are few undecideds, and Biden is in the 50s. He's in a great position.

[quote]Trump is on the air around the clock in the very expensive Philly media market.

Ads by Joe Biden or Trump himself?

[quote]You could tell Hillary was in a bit of trouble in 2916

Don't give her any ideas.

**New poll this morning from NYT/Siena shows Biden leading Trump by 14 points**:

Biden (50%)

Trump (36%)

Polls look good now. I just wish it were Late October.

No, Trump being down by five would be looking good. These numbers look GREAT. Even when it tightens up in the fall, Mighty Joe should still be ahead. It’s not like the Coronavirus is going away come September.

Polls make us complacent.

These fucks are the party of dirty tricks who do not believe in the democratic process and will do anything including collude with a enemy of the US to stay in power.

What's their motive, their end game?

Stealing.

Overconfident alert 🚨 [See r334]

I don’t give a shit. It feels damn good to have a candidate whom I can be confident about. You can eeyore it up all you want to, R335/R336. I’m going to have a good time and enjoy the road to victory, not sit on one ass cheek waiting for impending doom like you.

Biden is a Democrat so he could still grab defeat from the jaws of victory. All he really has to do is let Trump continue to hang himself and stay out of the way. I just hope Biden lives until Nov. 3 and doesn't do anything stupid before then. Obama may have him on a short leash.

Who cares if Joe is ahead in the polls by a 80% margin on 2 November, 2020? Anyone who doesn't get up off their ass and give Dump and the GOP their very, very personal "FUCK YOU!" in the form of their vote for Blue for --at least-- their response to the COVID pandemic, is either in a vegetative state or so stupid they don't deserve to vote. This trash president and his cronies don't need just to be beaten, they need humiliated and buried!

Every vote counts, yes, but also EVERY VOTE is each American's one way of saying: "No more, you're done, go fuck yourselves."

Democratic voters have demonstrated time and time again throughout the year in primary after primary that we’re not playing around. People are lined up and voting. Lines for hours in New York and they stayed and voted anyway. Our vote totals are destroying the Republicans from California to Wisconsin to Pennsylvania to New York. So there should be no fear of Dem complacency on November 3. That’s part of why I’m so confident. This is not 2016. And that’s why we need to enjoy this ride. We’re energized. We’re on offense, and we’re marching toward victory.

Thank you, R340. I’m excited to vote. I am going to donate the legal limit to Biden. I’m going to donate to other Senate candidates. I will donate my time on weekends.

Seeing Biden ahead now isn’t going to make me any less determined to do all of those things.

In the walk and chew gum department: It's absolutely possible to see the polls, analyze the trends they measure, observe that things are breaking in Biden's way, AND understand that the Trump Gang will get very dirty and do everything to tilt the playing field in Trump's favor.

I do think that the image of "The Loser Trump" is useful... the pathetic old man walking from the helicopter, the man stumbling on the ramp, the man shouting at a half-empty arena, giving nothing new... This will inflame his "30%" that would defend him if he shot someone in the middle of Fifth Ave, but will suppress the turnout of the 12% that are with him, but not really comfortable... and perhaps shift 2-3% to Biden.

And again, none of this means that we are overconfident. On the contrary we need to work very hard to protect the right to vote, increase turnout. Work harder than ever for change in November.

[quote]Polls look good now. I just wish it were Late October.

Biden may very well drop a few points by then, but I just don’t see how he can go from being that far ahead to being 3-4 points behind by November. Trump isn’t going to get better and neither is this virus or the economy.

REPUBLICANS WILL CHEAT BECAUSE THEY ARE CHEATERS!

Bang on the doors! Burn it down if you have to! BUT, WE MUST VOTE!!!

[quote]Biden may very well drop a few points by then, but I just don’t see how he can go from being that far ahead to being 3-4 points behind by November. Trump isn’t going to get better and neither is this virus or the economy.

Remember that Biden was counted out before Jim Clyburn. So, anything can happen

R343 Failing something as significant at the Return of the Lord Jesus Christ, Biden is going to win the national popular vote by millions, more than Clinton. The key will be PA, MI, WI, MN, FL, and AZ. Trumpers (and Russia, and China, and Brazil) will be as dirty and underhanded as possible to win those battleground states. It's absolutely possible for Biden to win by 6-7 million nationally, and for Trump to win enough of those battleground states to win the electoral college... or even more likely, to keep it "close" enough in those states to be able to challenge the returns... either appealing the election to the Supreme Court, or simply saying they won't leave because Biden (and George Soros, and Antifa, and all those non-whites) "stole" the election.

Thanks, r342, very reasoned and well analyzed response. I know a lot of us are emotional about how much we hate Dump, and I think it can cloud our judgment (me included), so it helps to look at the situation without those emotions.

The media counted Biden out, but I always thought they were calling it way too early.

The market is dropping again so maybe Trump will wake up to the fact that it's getting worse.

NY, NJ, and CT have just announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for people coming in from high infection states. My how things have changed in just a few weeks. Floridians will be fleeing back to NY!

[quote]Polls make us complacent.

I'm going to argue polls energize us now. Before it felt so uphill, so futile, so inevitable Republicans would win (I think the constant Senate and House majorities were real kicks in the confidence.) This time there is a confidence that our vote will matter and will effect change.

[quote]the Trump Gang will get very dirty and do everything to tilt the playing field in Trump's favor.

I think the dynamic has changed. The country is in true crisis, it is only going to get worse, and Trump and his degenerate enables are doing nothing in defence of the American people. The dirt tactics will have some effect but I think the larger result will be to harden and grow the sentiment that is turning against them. These aren't normal times. I can't say it enough: the country is in a true crisis and Trump and his entire administration are failing not through bad idea but no ideas. They aren't even trying. The dynamic has changed.

public opinion polls taken in October 1980 showed Democrat Jimmy Carter holding as much as an eight-point lead over Republican Ronald Reagan (a Gallup poll two weeks before the election had Carter at 47% and Reagan at 39%), yet Reagan won a landslide victory in the general election, beating Carter 489 to 49 in electoral votes and by almost 10% in the popular vote. (It should be noted that 6.6% of the popular vote also went to a third-party candidate, John Anderson.)

In early 2020, Carter lead Reagan by over 15%

In early 1980*

This isn’t 1980, and Donald Trump is no Ronald Reagan.

R351, I would also argue polling has progressed in accuracy light years. And don’t bring up 2016 as an example that it didn’t.

2016 is a case of a late October surprise changing everything. It can happen again. Trump and Barr have one scheduled for Halloween

**WISCONSIN**

June 24, 2020

New poll from Marquette shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points (9 with leaners added).

Biden has widened his lead from the poll in May.

I voted in that 1980 Carter/Reagan election. Everyone knew Reagan was going to win big.

FIGHT TO VOTE!

**NORTH CAROLINA**

Public Policy Polling

> Biden leads Trump by 2

> Cunningham (D) leads Tillis (R) by 4 for Senate

> Cooper (D) leads Forest (R) by 9 for Governor

Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8

Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14

Ohio Quinnipiac Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1

Wisconsin Marquette Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8

North Carolina PPP (D) Trump 46, Biden 48 Biden +2

Now that the virus is spreading out of control in half the country Republicans will rightfully be blamed. They completely fucked this up making safety measures partisan. They rushed reopening while not prepping people to be very very careful. They made it seem urgent. This really is a disaster.

The claim about polls in 1980 is wildly exaggerated. Aggregate polls showed Carter and Reagan neck and neck for the 3 months before the election. Carter actually recovered from a huge drop due to the economy crashing. They only had one debate, right before the election, that pushed Reagan over the top, PLUS the 1 year anniversary of the hostage crisis fell on election day.

The big lesson from 1980 is the deal Reagan made to prolong the hostage crisis. The depth to which the GOP will sink to win at all costs is bottomless. THEY WILL CHEAT.

I’d rather be in our position than theirs. Just vote.

***New battleground state polls from NYT/Siena***:

(A+ rated pollster)

June 25, 2020

Michigan (Biden +11)

Wisconsin (Biden +11)

Pennsylvania (Biden +10)

Florida (Biden +6)

Arizona (Biden +7)

North Carolina (Biden +9)

R362, that is the point. Republicans will do anything to win. Bet on a huge late October Surprise.

We need to be fighting for more polling places and for mail in ballots. RIGHT NOW. If you have early voting in your town, vote early. Make sure. Fight Raise hell. Find out which group is out here fighting against voter suppression. In Georgia, the ACLU is really effective. But other places it's MoveOn. Getting the vote out is critical. Being able to vote, and making sure it's fair is basic.

All the political blather is bullshit. Trump is a fuck up.The Republicans are vile. What else do we need to know? The virus is still here. None of that will change between now and November. The media is making noise. So wear a mask when you leave home. Wash your hands, and social distance. There's nothing to focus on but getting out the vote. We shouldn't waste time more than 30-60 minutes a day on our news feeds.

Why doesn’t the Northeast have early voting?

Trump is going to keep doing everything he can to provoke violence. Now he's ordering federal marshals to "guard" the statues in D.C. and other places. This is not what they do. They're going to be activating groups on the Far Left and Far Right. It doesn't matter what they believe in as long as they can get them to be violent. They will hijack the protests where ever they can. They have groups who travel around, armed, too. We will see more armed violence soon. Personally I hope the virus keeps spiking. We need a virus spike in the Fall. September & October. I know it's terrible to say that, but we can't afford for that piece of shit to gain a single advantage.

Thanks, PollTroll @r364. Trump must be apoplectic at those numbers, and I’m sure the fact that it’s coming from an A+ pollster is doubly horrifying behind closed doors. This doesn’t take anything away from the work we need to do until Election Day, but these numbers actually energize me. It feels like the things we’re doing now to gain the edge over Trump are working. It’s making me excited to do more.

The Pennsylvania numbers are finally looking the way I expected them to.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert:

Current poll consensus about Wisconsin could not be much worse for @realDonaldTrump who visits WI today:

@MULawPoll (6/14-18): Biden+8

NYT/Siena (6/8-18): Biden +11

Fox News: (5/30-6/2) Biden +9

common threads:

Trump's edge among men gone (!)

Dem voters more united then Reps.

Like R365 says, Republicans will do anything to win. I’m glad we have many on our side this time. Perhaps they will have an October surprise for Trump.

We're going to make the same mistake again as in 2016

I'll believe it when it happens. I never thought Trump could beat Hilary and yet he did.

I love that our great political 'savior' has come in the form of an old white man who isn't that smart and loves to be inappropriate with woman.

R373 2020 is completely different from 2016. Things are not remotely the same. Trump and the craven oligarchs who benefit from having his hands on the steering wheel will manipulate the angry grievance-driven white MAGA voter. But MAGA is very far from enough. They will suppress vote, and throw a lot at Biden.

But remember the center-left's reactionary worry about 2018 ... "oh remember 2016, the polls are wrong, the Republicans will win again".. and "oh look at how Trump is ginning up fear with the Caravan coming up from Central America with Al Qaeda hidden in its ranks... George Soros funding the Caravan!! M13 gang members!! Illegal aliens killing white women!!" None of that worked. The "Caravan" was gone from Fox news the day after the election. Dems won an historic victory, taking back the House easily.

2018, literally and strategically, is closer to 2020 than 2016.

The Repubs profited off of Hillary Hate in 2016 but they will be the ones paying in November. What's felt for Trump is beyond hate, by an ever increasing number of Americans and inflamed daily by that morbidly obese fucker, orange blob in the White House. I think we will have record voting turnout everywhere.

They're going to try to find a new line of attack about the same old shit. Trump is convinced he needs to be a racist in order to mobilize his base. He went to the Wall. He signed another restrictive order to ban certain foreign workers ...which is really pissing tech companies off. My guess is Stephen Miller is going to come up with some new immigration bullshit for him. Because the courts seem to not give a fuck about how much injury he does to immigrants. He will even try to ramp up the anti China rhetoric. But honestly. None of that is going to work. It's fizzling as we speak. So he'll provoke violence and accelerate voter suppression. Right now there's legislation pending in states all over this country proposing to restrict absentee voting even more. They will try any devious means to thwart mail in ballots.

[quote]I never thought Trump could beat Hilary and yet he did.

Neither did I, but I also underestimated just how much people dislike Hillary Clinton. And I think we've seen it in the primaries. In 2016 were Democrats voting for Bernie or against Hillary?

I'm not taking anything for granted, I'm volunteering and sending money and getting people signed up to vote. Biden wasn't my first choice, but I'm all in for Uncle Joe. Stay strong and don't get discouraged when the polls eventually tighten up... and they will.

Check out this poll! Biden is crushing it. WI, PA, MI, plus formerly Red states such as FL, AZ, and NC look good for Joe!

All Trump has to do is tighten the race. Close races are easier to steal. This is going to be a cliffhanger. Not a blow out. I'm saying that to bring us back down to earth. We can't allow that fucker to steal this thing. We have to get our turnout up. Thy're throwing up all kinds of road blocks. Push back.

After this summer of unrest and Covid, if are those protestors don't get their asses to the polls then all of this protesting was for nothing.

[QUOTE] In 2016 were Democrats voting for Bernie or against Hillary?

Considering how well Bernie did four years later, I think it’s safe to say they were voting against Hillary.

Is anyone doing GOTV booths at any of these protest sites? I haven’t seen that covered anywhere.

They will probably try to bring up again the Hunter Biden thing in late October. But it shouldn't matter, not when Trump's crotchfruit behave like the Crown Prince, Princess Royal and Grand Duke.

*SENATE*

NYT/Siena

*Arizona* (Kelly +9)

*Michigan* (Peters +10)

*North Carolina* (Cunningham +3)

Look. A Bernie-AOC endorsed Progressive is in the lead in the Dem primary in KY. He can't beat McConnell. If Mitch had chosen him personally he could not have found a more perfect insurance policy. So we have to flip the Senate

FOX NEWS Poll:

*Florida* (Biden +9)

*Georgia* (Biden +2)

*North Carolina* (Biden +2)

*Texas* (Biden +1)

R387 Oh dear gawd. Are you kidding? McGrath was our only hope however small.

Arizona, Georgia and Texas are going to shock a lot of people on election night. We could see the beginning of a major political realignment.

[quote]We could see the beginning of a major political realignment.

Will we be able to do anything about these Trump Judges?

No, R391.

We have to flip the Senate no matter what. Getting McConnell out would be nice, but it would not be enough, and it was always going to be a tall order.

Trump predicts Joe Biden victory during Fox News interview: ‘He’s gonna be your president’

^ WOW! NOW, THAT'S A SOUNDBITE THAT WILL BE USED!

Yes, R393. We have to get EVERY fucking republican senator tf out for enabling this madness. Even in small red states where it seems hopeless, we have the ability to enact change this way. I live in WV and am doing everything little thing I can to get votes for Paula Jean Swearengin over treasonous cunt Shelley Moore Capito. We get a while to keep Manchin who made us proud by voting to impeach the fucker. One seat is one seat. That can happen in states all over the country.

Something stinks about the Kentucky situation. McGrath was in the lead for months and months. Bernie and AOC had endorsed this guy Charles Brooks, but he wasn't going anywhere. Kentucky Dems , right? But then Schumer and the Dem 'establishment' suddenly go in for Brooks over McGrath. Which was like, a surprise? SO WTF? Did Schumer cut a deal with McConnell? Because if Brooks wins this it's definitely a win for mcConnell. I want us to flip the Senate. And then I want Klobuchar to become Majority Leader not Schumer. He is a supreme asshole.

Why would Schumer cut a deal with Mitch? Come on.

The Booker thing stinks but I haven't figured out where the rot in that situation is coming from, yet. But it's definitely rotten as all fuck!

James Carville coming up next on MSNBC’s 11th Hour w/ Brian Williams to talk about Biden’s impressive poll numbers.

It was a long shot to beat McTreason but McGrath was our best hope.

Carville telling Democrats to stop being so scared and just accept that Biden is going to win. He said there’s a better chance that Trump doesn’t even run for re-election than there is that he’ll win re-election.

He says there’s no sense in being afraid to state the obvious—Trump is going to lose. I agree with him. There is practically no chance that Trump comes back from this, and there’s no chance that people will get complacent and not show up to vote.

God, I hope that you are right R402!! That said, I am not taking anything for granted and will keep getting the word out and encouraging every "independent" to vote D. Two of my very good friends did not even make time to go to the polls in 2016; I might never forgive them for that, but this is 4 years later and we can only move forward. There is zero doubt in my mind that swing states were rigged last time around. Cheaters gonna cheat and no one and I do mean no one cheats like the GOP. Never, ever underestimate them and never trust them. This will be a bloodbath before the dust settles.

R403, exactly. I also know several people who didn’t vote who would have voted for Hillary. They feel bad enough, but I won’t stop pushing. In Philly, there was a torrential rain storm Election Day 2016, so people just figured she was going to win and didn’t vote. That was the case with my friends. I remember driving to the polls and thinking, “This is not good,” but I really did not expect Hillary to lose.

Harry Enten:

I said this in the beginning of May, and I'll say it again. "History says whoever can best handle coronavirus will win the election." Right now it's Biden by a wide margin in the polls.

Chris Hayes of "All In" has just called for the resignation of Donald Trump.

How brave r406.

... @chrislhayes: “he is not going to get good at this. he is not going to change. he has failed, definitively. and it is an urgent matter of public health, of public safety at this moment, for the president, donald trump, to resign.” #inners

Harry Enten:

LOTS of Democratic internals being released this month. Very few Republican internals. When one side has a clear advantage in terms of polls released, it usually means they do well in the fall.

No. There's bad Karma out here. We have the pandemic. We have dead people. We have Sand storms blowing in from the Sahara. We will probably be having at least one killer hurricane. Society is breaking down and we have anarchy on the horizon. THink about it. Six months ago, back in January, most of us were carefree. Now we are living in a country that is unable to provide clean drinking water, and we are having periodic food shortages. Dams are collapsing. Hospitals are overwhelmed. And corruption is so commonplace it is done out in the open. My point being, I don't care how far ahead Joe Biden is in the polls. If we don't have a free fair election with no foreign interference, no hacking, no voter suppression Trump will remain.

“Have no hope, have no hope, have no hope.”

We hear you, R410.

R411 I have hope. But I'm saying we need to act like we're 5 points behind, and we need to also be looking at the voting process because states like Georgia and Wisconsin and Kentucky and Ohio, PA, etc are going to fuck things up and we have to be raising pure hell and exposing this now. Not the day of.

Biden is way ahead now and on track to win—likewise the Democratic party in general—but take nothing for granted. We've got more than 4 months to go.

Martha Stewart puts her emphatic opinion of Trump

HA! I just saw my second, "SAVE THE SENATE" ad on YouTube. Starring.... MITCH MCCONNELL! To paraphrase; "The Democrats only need 4 seats to flip the Senate. They have (get this..) George Soros and Mike Bloomberg. But, I have you. Take a moment to send us only $4 bucks (as he holds up 4 fingers) to save the Senate for America!

I'd like to shove my four fingers and my big old thumb right down his goddamned traitorous throat and rip out his croak box.

R416 Film it...

Harry Enten:

Trump hasn't held a lead in a single live interview national poll this entire year. He's the first prez incumbent for who that is true in any election in the polling era. Other incumbents who were trailing at this point (Truman, Ford, Carter) led in polls earlier in the year.

[QUOTE] Biden is way ahead now and on track to win—likewise the Democratic party in general—but take nothing for granted. We've got more than 4 months to go.

We’ve been saying this since May, and it’s about to be July. Time is flying. This is the point in an election where you need to win the day. Every day that passes, you need to win. The narrative. The headlines. The aura of positivity surrounding your campaign. You must win the day, because they’re going by fast. And Joe Biden has been kicking Donald Trump’s ass for MONTHS now! He’s always winning the day. He dominates the battle-space. Joe is always on the offensive and Trump is forced to defend himself and his record on multiple fronts. Everytime Trump tries to turn the tables and go on offense against Joe, he fails. November 3rd is not that far away. It’s coming and it’s coming fast. Soon the election will be four months away. And then three. And then two. And then one. We are not that far out. There is nothing wrong with basking in the glow of imminent victory when you’re crushing your opponent and advancing on him daily. We’re winning. Fucking enjoy it.

Trump admits it: He's losing

Amid a mountain of bad polling and stark warnings from allies, the president has acknowledged his reelection woes to allies.

By ALEX ISENSTADT

06/27/2020 10:13 PM EDT

Donald Trump knows he's losing.

The president has privately come to that grim realization in recent days, multiple people close to him told POLITICO, amid a mountain of bad polling and warnings from some of his staunchest allies that he's on course to be a one-term president.

Trump has endured what aides describe as the worst stretch of his presidency, marred by widespread criticism over his response to the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide racial unrest. His rally in Oklahoma last weekend, his first since March, turned out to be an embarrassment when he failed to fill the arena.

What should have been an easy interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday horrified advisers when Trump offered a rambling, non-responsive answer to a simple question about his goals for a second term. In the same appearance, the normally self-assured president offered a tacit acknowledgment that he might lose when he said that Joe Biden is “gonna be your president because some people don't love me, maybe."

In the hours after the interview aired, questions swirled within his inner circle about whether his heart was truly in it when it comes to seeking reelection.

(more)

Shall we discuss this?

And this?

Wrong thread! Sorry.

[quote] If we have another huge wave this summer that overwhelms our hospitals he’s really fucked and so are we.

That's already happening in some states. Florida, Alabama, Texas are all seeing huge surges of new infections and their ICUs are almost at capacity

Let's not count our chickens yet. EVERYONE eligible needs to vote to deliver a resounding defeat to not only @45 but also enabling 🐘 encumbents. Now which paper will get the enviable Nov 4 am headline "You're FIRED!" . . . NY Post?

You know, once Trump is gone and journalists and historians reflect back, I hope they don't simply dismiss him as "controversial." He needs to be treated as what he is. A criminal, a traitor, and an ILLEGITIMATE president. As Putin's operative he attempted to dismantle our treaties, and he betrayed and alienated our allies. he weakened us from within by allowing radical fringe elements and violent white supremacists to gain traction. He engaged in widespread corruption for personal gain. He let thousands die while he engaged in profiteering.

From the article at r421: “If Trump's numbers against erode to 35 percentage points over the next two weeks, Nunberg added, “He’s going to be facing realistically a 400-plus electoral vote loss and the president would need to strongly reconsider whether he wants to continue to run as the Republican presidential nominee.”

I don’t think Dump wants to quit, but I’ve said all along that if his numbers dip further to the low to mid 30s, there will be a concerted effort to get him off the ticket. The GOP will resort to blackmail (interesting irony since Dump is the master blackmailer), NOT any promises of pardons. I bet they have some interesting stuff in their pockets. They sincerely don’t care about what happens to Dump. The goal will be to prevent a devastating loss to down ticket candidates.

But who on earth would replace him in the hearts of the base?

[quote]But who on earth would replace him in the hearts of the base?

OH! There are MANY takers!

Let's start with this one....

If Hillary and Trump were running now instead of 2016 I think Hillary would win. Things were running smoothly back then.

No, the base would feel betrayed if he was taken off the ticket. They’re a cult. Full stop. No other deplorable will do. We are stuck with the worst Republicans for president for decades. The base hungers for it. But they will not vote if he is dumped from the ticket. Trust me I’ve heard plenty say they’d stay home or vote straight Dem out of spite.

Plump is such a lazy piece of trash.

Maybe r431. But I still think Uncle Joe has a better chance.

That said, Hillary Clinton would have been an outstanding president. No one was more qualified.

R427 There's the New York Attorney General's office if he tries to give himself or has Pence give him a pardon. Pardons don't work for non-Federal crimes, like state or local ones (NYC),etc.

To add to what r435 wrote, I find it interesting that Gov. Cuomo has gone to the WH to see Trump as recently as 3 weeks or so ago, and not for the first time.

In my daydream, he's telling Trump, "Don't fuck with me or all the shit our state investigators have on you will be leaked "accidentally" or otherwise."

I notice Trump NEVER puts Cuomo down but Cuomo openly, on TV, talks true shit about Trump.

Certain people Trump avoids talking about. Pelosi is another one besides Andrew Cuomo. He rarely attacks her personally considering how she acts towards him.

Has Dump been tweeting a lot less since TULSARAMA?

[quote]Certain people Trump avoids talking about. Pelosi is another one besides Andrew Cuomo.

Because I say it like it is: with that morbidly obese fraud of a loser, all roads lead to Putin.

New poll has Biden up by 4 in Georgia.

[quote]New poll has Biden up by 4 in Georgia.

I'll take care of that...

A +10 point popular vote margin for Biden would translate into an EC victory that looked something like this:

Realistically, the map will probably look more like this. Still a substantial victory:

Thank you, r442.

Nope. I give the Dems 276.

Given Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are in, it's just either Wisconsin or Arizona and that's it.

What is up with that ME congressional district? Even with a 10 pt lead Biden loses it? How has it gone so red?

R447, Trump won Maine's 2nd Congressional District by a wide margin in 2016 and it's composed of predominantly working class whites.

Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry & Barack Obama won ME-02, so it's possible it will go back to Biden, but for now most electoral college projections still have it in Trump's column.

It was blue for so long and it’s NE working class whites which are different than Mid western ones. Even with Biden up 10 it doesn’t turn blue again? What? All others are turning back blue.

Trolled by TikTok users again.

R449, ME-02 may turn back to blue if Biden maintains a double-digit lead and wins Maine by a good margin. But for now most election forecasters have it in Trump's column because he won it by 10 points in 2016.

All that matters is 270.

R453 I disagree. If it is that close, and the change of one state's electors will change the result, you can be assured that the Republicans will challenge something with the hopes of letting the Supreme Court decide.

There needs be a cushion of three or more states.

R453, those numbers look whacked. No way total black approval is that high.

That's because Rasmussen polling is suspect, whether it's in Biden's favor or Trump's. They lean Republican +1.5 points, and I'm surprised 538 even gives them as high as a C+ rating.

R445, let’s see your map, Mr. “Nope”.

Nate Cohn:

Trump's disapproval rating is at 55.6 among RV/LV polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. It's the highest in 2.5 years

Highest in 2.5 years? Why isn’t his disapproval the highest ever?

In Aug. and Dec. 2017 FiveThirtyEight had his disapprovals at 57% or so, they highest they've been. I forget what was going on then to make him less popular than he is now; his approvals then were in the high thirties, lower than now (40.5% today).

R460 "Nazis and white supremacists are good people too." Charlottesville and Nazis with torches. It wasn't well received.

#NEW National Poll:

Biden 53% Trump 41%

@Suffolk_U/@USATODAY (6/25-29)

Betrayed

Wow, that ad at R463 is really hard to refute. Even for right wingers. It speaks their language.

The Lincoln Project needs to teach a course on political ads to the DNC.

Watch the ad.

The GOP leaders have been assured that Putin will interfere in the election. This time to help Biden. After Biden wins, Putin will admit that he helped Biden and chaos will ensue. If they can't win, they'll turn over the table.

Look what happens when they are confronted on camera with truth, they get angry and outraged and end the interview. Schiff says republicans aren't showing up to meetings without excuse. They know the fix is in, they just have to wait it out a little longer.

R462, as Nate Cohn says, Suffolk has been a good pollster for Trump in the past, so to be trailing Biden by 12 points in Suffolk is bad for Trump:

R464 I think it'd unfolding perfectly. Attack ads can backfire, and taint the candidate negatively. The attack dog (sometimes the VP candidate) needs to be a some remove from the presidential candidate. At least this was conventional wisdom until Trump.

Lincoln Project is savage. Uncle Joe is sweet. Perfect balance

I'm not looking forward to the day when the Lincoln Project people are working against the Democrats. That group is viscously effective.

r464, Well then I guess the Senate should have passed some of the bills to prevent election interference. No matter what they lose.

YAY!!

The polls are never wrong.

Polling is hard science and poll results are facts. Or alternative facts. Just ask @KellyannePolls on Twitter.

Shut the fuck up, R470.

Relax, R471, Donald Trump can’t win.

Just like he couldn’t in 2016.

Sigh.

No one cares what you think r470. It’s been explained over and over again how the polls were right, but you keep being you. You’re stupid, but where would smart people be without you to compare to?

R470 what exactly is your theory for a Trump win? Do you not understand the difference between the polling in ‘16 and now? Or the general differences in the political atmosphere between then and now? What is going on in your head?

One poll out today—sorry, didn’t see it mentioned in this thread yet but I could’ve missed it—has Trump’s approval at 36%.

Former Bush officials are coming out supporting Biden. This is the main reason, which should be used by everyone who is criticized for supporting Joe:

"This November, we are choosing country over party,” said Purcell. “We believe that a Biden administration will adhere to the rule of law... and restore dignity and integrity to the White House."

CNBC's Eamon Javers:

More bad news for President Trump on our new CNBC/Change Research battleground States of Play poll our this morning: Joe Biden leads by 6 points in the 6 battleground states (50 to 44), up 3 points over the past two weeks. Biden has a lead in all six battleground states now.

We worked for W.

WE SUPPORT

JOE.

(CNN)A group of former George W. Bush administration and campaign officials has launched a new super PAC to mobilize disaffected Republican voters for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The group, launched Wednesday under the name "43 Alumni for Biden," "seeks to unite and mobilize a community of historically Republican voters who are dismayed and disappointed by the damage done to our nation by Donald Trump's presidency," according to a release. The formation of the group is the latest example of efforts being made by anti-Trump Republicans to defeat the President in November

Kristopher Purcell, who worked in the Office of Communications in the White House and in the State Department during the Bush administration, told CNN that about 200 former officials and those who were part of the Bush campaigns have joined the group.

"A lot of us who worked in government, who have held positions of public integrity, we know what normal is," he told CNN. "We're seeing now what abnormal is and we're seeing the damage it can do to the country. We're seeing the way it can divide the country."

"The reason we're supporting former Vice President Biden," he continued, "is we believe he can bring stability to the country and honor and integrity back to the White House. The leadership and moral authority of the United States has been incredibly damaged."

Many Bush alums have been frustrated with Trump's presidency, said John Farner, a member of the group's committee who also worked on the Bush 2000 campaign.

I don't trust polls, and I don't have any insecurity about my distrust for polls. I heard plenty of people explain that the polls that misled everyone prior to the 2016 election were technically correct, if only margin of error had been accounted for, but it wasn't, and so that's why everyone was confused. The issue is that polls are still reported without margin of error. And the bigger problem is that political polls are used to very effectively as a means by which to drive people's behavior like a cattle dog chasing a herd. Again, Kellyanne Conway's career leading up to becoming chief propagandist was running a polling company. She used the same spinning and propagandizing spin tactics as a person who spoke about poll numbers that she uses to tell lies on behalf of her fuhrer. I don't disbelieve in statistics, but political polls are inherently political. Yes, I understand that some third-party polls are conducted in 'apolitical' ways, but the results are wielded by campaigns and cable news and commentators to justify anything and everything they are selling, just as Bible verses can be used selectively to support any Christian's insane arguments.

Anyway. Setting that aside, despite my adamant arguments, I am always open to being wrong, and sometimes I really want to be proved wrong. I'd love to be wrong with respect to my worries about polling numbers and end up seeing Trump lose in a landslide. I am far too cautious and vigilant to expect or even have realistic hopes for that. But I do want it to happen.

I am VERY encouraged to see people who supported either Bush support Biden. Or any Republican. I am even encouraged to see the Cheneys and Lamar Alexander stand up to the insanity of politicizing masks.

And when I say I am open to being wrong and sometimes want to be, I mean it. One example is Biden's candidacy. He was way at the bottom of my list of hoped-for candidates during the debates. For a lot of reasons that I won't rehash here. But it looks like tactically, MAYBE Democratic leaders got something right for the first time in a long time. Maybe he's got most black votes locked in and also is moderate enough to siphon halfway sane Republicans away from voting for Trump. If so, then he might be the best candidate to do that. Old white men and middle-aged to old white women are gonna vote for an old white dude one way or another, so I guess it had to be Biden.

I agree that Trump (probably) can't win, but DON'T RELAX YET. Keep fighting.

Oh wait, I just saw that that Jon Wiener "Relax" article was from summer 2016! All the more reason not to relax yet.

R480 Yes, that's why I posted it. It was published at almost exactly this time during the last election cycle. Just now, when all the news outlets are saying there's no way to come back from where he's polling now. They said that last time, at this time in the cycle, and all the way up to election day. Yet a lot of people just do not want to hear it. They don't want to acknowledge that that could play out again...no, last time "mistakes were made," but this time we know better. Last time, polls were misinterpreted and misreported. This time...well, pundits are interpreting exactly as they always have, but have faith in them because they are never wrong! Except that one time. Mistakes were made then. Not now.

Anytime someone says "mistakes were made," they're avoiding accountability and usually they are in denial.

Liz Cheney is 100% going to run next.

[QUOTE] Liz Cheney is 100% going to run next.

I look forward to defeating her.

[quote]Liz Cheney is 100% going to run next.

Run through this, bitch!

LOL! All those former Bushies supporting Biden? I betcha Karl Rove and Frank Luntz are not among them...because they're working themselves to the point of exhaustion to salvage the Senate. And they're going to lose.

Harry Enten:

In yesterday's Pew poll 48% of voters said Biden is honest. Just 36% said Trump is. Trump's numbers are the same as 4 years ago, but Biden is doing 10 pts better than Clinton. In 2016, few attributes predicted the race as well as perceived honesty.

This would also help to explain Trump trying "Corrupt Joe"... One notable nugget... Perceived honesty numbers in June 2016 held to the election, so Biden is a much better position at this point than Clinton was at this point in 2016.

So what happens if the polls consistently show Biden 10 to 15 points ahead leading up to the election, and then we are told Trump has won the electoral college again?

What do you do?

Are you willing to riot? Are you willing to recreate Bastille Day?

Or is it just grumbling and pouting over “four more years” while the nation is completely dismantled following a corrupt election?

I actually think people will take to the streets for real and it won’t be some peaceful protest.

I'll be heading the "Heads on Pikes Tour", r487.

That won’t happen, R487.

R487, if Biden is still leading by double digits in the national vote going into November 3 it will be virtually impossible for Trump to win the electoral college.

In fact, any Biden popular vote lead of 5 points or more makes it very difficult for Trump to win the electoral college.

And if he were to “win” anyway, R491? A second impossible win secured. What then?

It happens as a norm in developing nations that have “elected” dictators.

[quote]In fact, any Biden popular vote lead of 5 points or more makes it very difficult for Trump to win the electoral college.

Hmm... Aren't the voters of the electoral college allowed to vote independently? I distinctly remember an electoral college voting male (and this was when the Hillary is a shoe-in commotion was prevalent) who said that he would go against his state's vote and vote for Trump.

Lets enjoy where we are. I’d rather be here than vice versa. Lets work hard and vote blue.

Most, if not all, states have laws against that, R493. And SCOTUS recently upheld those laws.

*Change Research/ CNBC Poll*:

Biden’s lead in the battleground states is growing

ARIZONA (Biden +7)

FLORIDA (Biden +5)

MICHIGAN (Biden +5)

NORTH CAROLINA (Biden +7)

PENNSYLVANIA (Biden +6)

WISCONSIN (Biden +8)

[Poll conducted June 26-28, 2020]

Only 5 in Michigan? 6 in Pennsylvania? Yet 8 in Wisconsin and 7 in North Carolina? These numbers don’t make any sense.

R497, Change Research is just an average pollster (C- rating at 538), but the trendlines in their poll of an increasing Biden lead in the battleground states match up with other polls.

R497, the Wisconsin numbers make sense; that state has been sadistically mismanaged by Republicans for years, and voters are really fed up. Pennsylvania is full of conservative, intensely religious rural areas, so it also makes sense that Biden's lead would be lower there.

*COLORADO*

Public Policy Polling

BIDEN +17

HICKENLOOPER (D) +11 in the Senate race

[June 29-30, 2020]

[Survey of 840 Colorado voters]

Sooo glad Hickenlooper saw the light and ran for that Senate seat. We really needed him there.

Hickenlooper's lead over Sen. Gardner (R) has dropped a few points, (probably as a result of a tough Dem primary and Republican attack ads), but after winning last night's Senate primary, he should still be on course to beat Gardner in November.

[QUOTE] Sooo glad Hickenlooper saw the light and ran for that Senate seat. We really needed him there.

We can thank Joe Biden for that. He, like Steve Bullock in Montana, saw a greater chance for victory with Biden at the top of the ticket.

My apologies for the misinformation in R503. Hickenlooper entered the senate race soon after he dropped out of the Dem pres. primary, so I can’t see Biden being a factor in his decision. Bullock is the only one who’s rumored to have been enticed by a greater chance of success with Biden as the Democratic standard-bearer.

Okay... Forget sending money to Democrats. Send the money to the Lincoln Project

Susan Collins, Do Your Job

Please stop calling him MIGHTY Joe Biden. I'll vote for him because he's the alternative but he is not MIGHTY or even worthy of my vote. I'm just desperate to be out of this nightmare that is Trump.

R506 Not worthy of your vote? Oh puhleeze.

R507 He's got my vote. I just don't like him.

[quote] It happens as a norm in developing nations that have “elected” dictators.

Da, is bad thing. Elections no be called less than 5 hours before polls close.

New MONMOUTH poll continues trends of double-digit Biden leads:

BIDEN 53 (+1 from June) TRUMP 41

On generic Congressional ballot: Democrats 50 Republicans 42

Trump fav/unfav: 38/54 Biden fav/unfav: 44/44

“But it’s soooo early.”

“I’m getting scared guys. The Dems will stay home.”

“2016!”

Trump supporters dont tell the truth to pollsters because of a the social stigma aginst them. These polls are meaningless

Not 10%+ worth of "stigmatised" voters. That's just too much. 5% tops.

Gee, why is there a social stigma? I can only wonder.

R512 an incumbent being down double digits in every single poll released the past month, with an approval rating of 36%, is not the result of people fearing the stigma of telling anonymous pollsters they support trump. Trump is losing very, very badly right now.

Nevermind the margin, Biden being comfortably above 50% is great news.

R512, a number of these polls do not use interviewers (they are completely computerized), so there is no “shyness” or “stigma” involved.

R512 R517 And as we say, over and over and over again... the final polls prior to the 2016 election were well within the margin of error. The polls showed momentum shifting to Trump (with all the late-in-the-game Comey stuff). What was wonky (and may support R512's point) was the exit interview polling on election day. In person interviews, eh?

But the regular polling was fairly accurate. So, Trump may win EVENTUALLY... but Biden has a double digit lead NOW. Indisputable.

The national polls in 2016 were spot on. They said Hillary would win by 3/4 points and she did. It was the rust belt states polls that were wrong, likely meaning the Comey letter swung enough people in those states at the last minute where polling wouldn’t catch it. 2016 was always going to be close. I don’t think 2020 will be close at all. I know we’re all scarred from 2016 but this is very different. I don’t see anyway trump wins, even with successful cheating from the GOP. Don’t be surprised to see Mitch start to distance the senate GOP from trump in the next month. He’s willing to sacrifice trump to keep the senate majority.

Poor R506, sulking.

[quote]It was the rust belt states polls that were wrong

By a hair's breadth—less than 80,000 votes spread over the states of WI, MI, and PA.

Comey made Trump President. Republicans will try something similar again

Hillary lost because she and Trump were both historically unpopular, and voters who disliked both broke for Trump almost 2-to-1. Polls show the opposite happening in 2020. Biden also is much more popular than Hillary ever was. Plus he's a man.

Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 45% (-2) Trump (R): 40% (+1)

YouGov / July 1, 2020 / n=1187 / Online

(% chg w June 25)

Oh God, Trump is coming back!

It will be a close election. No one sane should think otherwise

How confident are you that Trump/Biden has the mental and physical stamina necessary to carry out the job of president:

Trump: Very/somewhat confident 45% Not too/not at all confident 54%

Biden: Very/somewhat confident 52% Not too/not at all confident 45%

@MonmouthPoll 6/26-30

R526 Nationally, it will not be close. In the Electoral College, it could be. It's July 2. Lots of territory to cover.

124 days is a long time. Republicans and Trump will pull out all stops to slime and kneecap Biden and Democrats. The Dirty War has not even begun

Formerly close states where Biden is leading, today:

North Carolina

Florida

Pennsylvania

Arizona

Wisconsin

Michigan

Texas

It is indeed possible for Trump to carry out a win in enough of these states, to win the electoral college, but the odds are getting worse for him.

No one is taking this for granted. Either it’ll close or Biden wins EC big. There are far more PACs for Biden and the Never Ters are all in and will work hard for Biden. To see how effective they are, Meg McCain was highly triggered on the View yesterday when The Lincoln Project was mentioned. She is always whatabouting, it’s her go to always, so if the shoes were on the other foot she’d be screaming about how out of touch Dems were that so many were supporting the other candidate.

Decency!

[quote]Oh God, Trump is coming back!

I told you! All of this euphoria is far too soon and all it it does is give people a false sense of security and risks making people complacent.

Another ad about Republicans choosing Biden.

I don't read it as euphoria at all.

I read it as conviction and an understanding we are going to get the opportunity to do what we've wanted to do for a long time: vote against this son of a bitch to get him out of office.

I don't feel security, I feel momentum. Finally, justice or revenge or whatever you want to call it... but people are hungry to cast their votes on election day.

One poll and some of you are wilting? Snap out of it!

I saw a Biden attack ad on TV today claiming Biden has ‘mental deficits’ or words to that effect, it was a series of clips of Biden gaffing and glitching and losing his train of thought mid-sentence (like he does.) I think there will be many more of these to come from Trump.

Harry Enten:

The last time an incumbent was this far behind in early July was Jimmy Carter in 1980. Didn't end well for him.

R537, I’m sure there will be an equivalent ad on Dump. The key to this is the debates. If Biden does well, that will quell a lot of the yapping about his mental fitness.

Nate Cohn:

There are four months to go, and it's important to remember that the race has changed before and it will change again. It is just as important to remember that incumbents who trail by double-digits with a -15 approval rating are very serious underdogs

R540 I heard on NPR today that Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by double digits in July of 2016.

R537 I saw the same ad just now, on CNN. Dump must have made a big ad buy.

R541, Hillary did not have a lead this large, and she struggled to get to 50% in the polls, which Biden is surpassing now in multiple pollsters.

Plus, Trump is an incumbent now, and as Nate Cohn & Harry Enten said above, these are historically bad numbers for an incumbent President.

Plus, Comey pushing all the buttons about HRC and even then she did carry the popular vote.

2016 was an aberration in every way. Except as a cautionary tale to Dems to vote, it's hard to compare it to anything usual.

Here's a new piece by veteran pollster Stan Greenberg:

**

Believe the Polls This Time

These aren’t Hillary Clinton’s numbers. Biden has a wide lead because the landscape has changed.

Heh. Poll troll posted at r538.

Democrats are unlikely to have a problem with voter turnout as they did in 2016. The elections since 2016 have seen big turnouts (even during the epidemic for some of the recent primaries), and Democrats have benefited from most of them. Also, the big increase in mail-in voting will mostly work to the Democrats' advantage.

[quote][R537] I saw the same ad just now, on CNN. Dump must have made a big ad buy.

I've seen that ad too. It makes me laugh every time I've seen it run during "Morning Joe" and "Rachel Maddow" What really makes me laugh is the final line; "I'm Donald J Trump and I approve of this message." LOL! As if we won't remember that he can't drink a glass of water or walk, etc? I don't know who "genius" idea it was to make such an ad AND then buy the ad time during "Morning Joe and Maddow?

Money to burn. Money to burn, I guess....

They're just deliciously evil!

[quote]Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·3h MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

The Lincoln Project@ProjectLincolnReplying to @realDonaldTrump

You were already hired to make America great. And you failed. You need a new slogan, sweetie.

7:20 PM · Jul 2, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

The thing is, I think people are going to realize Joe is basically hiding in order to keep his poll numbers up. He’s just filling space for anti-Trump sentiment.

R550 he’s not hiding he’s getting out of the way of the buffoon.

NEW: Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, the likely Democratic candidate against GOP Sen. Susan Collins, raised an astounding $9 million in the second quarter.

^Bye-BYE, Susie!

Great tweet: Every time I get pissed at Susan Collins, I donate to Sara Gideon. So, about $1 million of that is probably from me.

The new FEC filings tonight show that Sara Gideon has beaten Susan Collins in 2nd Quarter fundraising:

Sara Gideon (D): 9 million

Susan Collins (R): 3 million

Collins also has a fast burn rate -- she is burning through money faster than she is bringing it in and her COH (Cash on Hand) is shrinking:

I love you PollTroll, thank you for all you do.

I second that! NOTHING BUT LOVE for PollTroll.

[quote]NEW: Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, the likely Democratic candidate against GOP Sen. Susan Collins, raised an astounding $9 million in the second quarter.

That's amazing! $9 million goes a LONG way in a state like Maine.

Love Poll Troll

R551, just an fyi, r550 is blocked by me because he’s a closet Trumpster. I usually don’t post about those people I blocked but r550 is particularly insidious.

Turnout in Georgia’s 6/9 primary (final):

1,283,836 Democratic votes 1,033,308 Republican votes

Georgia has changed. Democrats are energized. Republicans are running scared.

#gapol

Maybe Republicans are demoralized because they know they’re going to lose the Presidency, R561.

Or maybe they even got scared of the long lines and thought it wasn’t worth it, while Dems are ready to vote in a fiery hurricane at this point.

I don’t know, but I would definitely not count on Republicans being demoralized in November. In 2012 and 2018, Republicans turned out in impressive numbers despite a hostile political environment. It’s just that Democrats also turned in impressive numbers, and there are more Democrats than Republicans. The smart bet is that Republicans always turn out to vote.

We can always bet on that R563. If for no other reason (literally NO other reason), I admire and respect the GOP when it comes to the cult's ability to motivate members to the polls. I really hope that we are waking up finally. 2018 showed us that when we show up - we can crush them. Less talk, more action - we are only talking about giving up one day every two years for Heaven's sake.

And the "GOP" (in quotes because the recent Tea Party/MAGA absorption of the party really has altered it.... no longer GOPish) always has a disproportionate number of older voters.. who vote at much higher turnout rates.

An underappreciated emerging data point from recent polls..... white seniors trending away from Trump to Biden. If this continues Trump has no path to victory. Seniors vote a higher rates.

Another reason why Biden was the right choice, r565. He scrambles the Trump coalition. Trump looks like a child next to him.

He was always the perfect choice.

It’s Biden time. 😎

[quote]I don’t know, but I would definitely not count on Republicans being demoralized in November.

At this point it will boil down to who lost the most soldiers during the Viral War Between the States.

Thanks, R556, R557 & R559. : )

NYT:

"Private Republican polls in recent weeks show Trump struggling even in conservative states, leading Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to GOP officials who have seen the data."

I had a feeling Biden could get Kansas. They’ve been fucked over by conservative policies especially on economics.

Harry Enten:

"GOP internal polling signals a Democratic rout." The GOP has released 0 district polls conducted since April. Dems have released 17. Historically, the difference between # of polls put out by each party is HIGHLY correlated with November's result.

😎

I'm here in GA and I can tell you that people are generally pissed off at the lackluster job Kemp is doing to control the spread of COVID19. And the outrage is Bi-Partisan. The voting turn out reflects that IMO. Because the Republicans didn't show up the way they needed to and the Dems stood in line or voted absentee or early voted out of anger. Older people are fed up and scared.

I'm not a Young Turks fan but I saw the title and then listened to it.

I am pleased.

I am very, very, pleased,

I'm not saying he won't try to turn the ship, I don't say when, but I think they will make an effort.

Still - taking nothing for granted - doesn't it seem impossible he can come back from all this? Covid is not going away. By November it will look like a slaughterhouse. People will be looking for someone to blame, fairly and unfairly. How could anybody turn this ship?

Hey. In 1988, Dukakis (remember him) was ahead of George H.W. Bush by 17 points in July.

George H.W. Bush was not Donald Trump.

Everybody talks like Biden is the problem presidential candidate.

Hello, Biden is not the problem in this race.

No, R578 he isn't. But even more important, Brad Parscale and JAred Kushner put together, are not Lee Atwater.

R577, Dukakis went on vacation right when he was polling well, and his lead evaporated.

Biden builds lead as Trump goes from trailing to flailing

Biden’s polling lead over Trump is significant, though not unprecedented.

As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double digits in recent polls and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him.

But there are still four months before the election — and any number of ways for Biden to blow it.

Even the best campaigns “can get f----- up,” said Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains candidates across the country. “There are a million ways to lose.”

Ugh...

They've all got rocks in their head.

Harry Enten:

BTW, polls are far from a perfect predictor at this point cause we're still 4 months out, but based on history since 1940 Trump is at historic disadvantage. He's down 10 & his opponent is at 50%+. Trump can win, but, if history holds, it's a long shot.

Already a week into July. Soon it will be August. Time flies. Bad for Trump, great for Joe Biden and America.

Trump and his minions are sitting around hoping and praying that Joe screws it all up, but ask all those Democratic primary candidates how well that worked out for them. It was always the next debate. The next campaign rally, the next interview, the next press conference. Ol’ Joe is gonna collapse any day now!

Except he didn’t. 😎

Trump needs to be told he can't win. He will be humiliated. Barr ought to negotiate a deal for him.

Harry Enten:

I started this convo with shalom. Bottom line is polls are unanimous that Biden's ahead. GOP is releasing few internal polls to counteract the public polls (historically a bad sign). In July polls, Trump's polling more like past losing than winning prez's

Polls having Joe ahead by 5 in PA are nothing to brag about. Joe needs to be farther ahead. This coronavirus response needs to be pouded into people's brains.

Today's Supreme COurt ruling about the Electoral College will have an impact on what Trump decides to do moving forward. It's another door closing.

And Dump’s numbers get worse-better.

[quote] Polls having Joe ahead by 5 in PA are nothing to brag about. Joe needs to be farther ahead. This coronavirus response needs to be pouded into people's brains.

Trafalgar Group, who have Biden with a +5 in Pennsylvania, are heavily Republican. All other recent polls have Biden with double digit leads.

Yes, Trafalgar leans Republican. And it's a C- rated pollster at 538. There are a couple of other polls that show Biden with only a 5-point lead (eg. Change Research), so it's possible the race in Pennsylvania is still close, but these polls tend to be coming from Republican-leaning C- rated pollsters.

Siena/NYT which is an A+ rated pollster has Biden at +10 in Pennsylvania.

Still, Pennsylvania could be closer than expected, so it's worth keeping an eye on the polls.

For me personally, I’m acting like all the polls are closer than they appear. It’s not because I don’t believe that Biden is ahead or that I don’t trust the polls, it just that it’s still early and I don’t trust people to do the right thing anymore. I can’t go through another night like I did back in November, 2016,

Boy. I am with you 100% R595. I remember my shock (surprise is too mild a term) on that election night. I am taking the same stance as you.

New thread:

John Kasich: President Trump is 'in a meltdown

[595]Here here.One of the worst nights of my life, no exaggeration.

Cook Political Report says Biden has Electoral College edge

The Cook Political Report on Wednesday updated its Electoral College forecast to give Joe Biden a decisive edge in the presidential contest, suggesting that November could bring more of "a Democratic tsunami than simply a blue wave."

Why it matters: Cook's forecast, which says 279 electoral votes are at least leaning toward the former vice president, ponders that Trump may be "close to the point of no return," with some analysts the group spoke to wondering if the president now faces "a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters."