Why Trump is panicking

From tneir mouths to Gods ears.

How you've brightened my day in some small way, OP.

I'd love that to be true, and I guess it wouldn't surprise me that much to find that someone is showing Trump that to get him to shut up and pay attention, but I'm *really* skeptical about that map, as it doesn't match the data we're seeing in the state polls.

I have to say that I'm also skeptical about this story. The last time that we had a news report about Trump getting polls he didn't like, he went off on a Twitter rampage about fake polls and about how large his victory was in 2016.

I don't think HE would panic, period. I don't think he genuinely cares. I think it's the McConnells of the world who care more.

Here's the link to the Twitter post.

Here’s the tweet.

R3, that map does match what we’re seeing in recent state polls with the exception of one state - North Carolina.

I will not rest until January 20, 2021.

Anyone remember what this map looked like in 2016....?

All Biden needs to do is hold onto the Hillary states (which won’t be a problem), add Pennsylvania and Michigan, both of which are heading in his direction, and then pick up either Arizona or Wisconsin. It’s razor-thin — and I want it to be a blowout — but it is achievable and will rid us of Cheatolini. tRump has a much more difficult task.

R10 nah, he's got CHEATING / ELECTION STEALING to do. I honestly think the repugs will stop at nothing, regardless of vote counts.

That does kind of explain this entire, nebulous Obamagate nonsense.

The way I look at it, if Clinton could win the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016 before anyone with a brain, working eyes and ears had 4 years of Trump's absolute insanity, the Biden would have to win by untold numbers more than Hillary at this point

The idea of Ohio and Texas being tossups is humorous, if not ridiculous. NC leaning Democratic is also wishful thinking. I believe that the polls may be right, but underestimate the power of a red state legislature and local election boards. Remember Milwaukee having 5 polling places instead of the usual 180+ ? The same scenario can be replayed in Cleveland, Columbus, Houston, Austin, Charlotte and Raleigh.

[quote]Remember Milwaukee having 5 polling places instead of the usual 180+ ?

Even with that, the Supreme Court election still went against them.

[quote] Remember Milwaukee having 5 polling places instead of the usual 180+ ?

You forgot to finish that story. People crawled over glass to decisively vote for the Dem in that election anyway.

It really is beyond gross that the overwhelming majority of states that leech off the federal govt, have the nerve to lean right and vote Republican. Is it rampant retardation that they're this fucked up and hypocritical? I mean what a group of complete shitheads.

I loved that so much, R16. So awesome.

[quote] but I'm *really* skeptical about that map, as it doesn't match the data we're seeing in the state polls.

R3 And you would be reasonable to be skeptical. It is a good idea to never just accept things like this from someone who has skin in the game, which John Weaver, as one of the leading Republican never Trumpers and founder of Project Lincoln, has. It could be true, or it could not be true. You are right that what he is announcing doesn't seem to jibe with the public polling. I will say that while Trump has the toughest re-election chances of any President since George H.W. Bush, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that he will undoubtedly lose. Last week's special election in California 25 should tell us that. If a Republican in California can flip a seat in a toss-up district that Hillary Clinton won comfortably in 2016 by around 7%, and that the Democratic candidate won by 8% in 2018, it suggests this divisive election will be closer than Weaver is suggesting. Especially since Mike Garcia won that district by almost10%.

If you want Trump defeated in November, you can't let things like this lull you into thinking it is inevitable.

Look at the graph at the top. 25& likely or safe for Democrats compared to 125 for Republicans. That.’a not including leans, which puts it at 334 and 141. You only need 270 to win.

What’s most interesting to me is that, despite it being obvious that their game plan and choices are playing out horrifically economically, in human cost, in constituent opinion, the repukes aren’t changing course, aren’t deciding to just play nice this one time if it means keeping their seats at the table. And what that tells me is they aren’t the ones setting their own policy, Trump, McConnell, et al, are just puppets doing someone else’s dance and that someone has now shown them that they’re as expendable to the objective as everyone else is.

Some people find that encouraging news motivates them. Others find that fear motivates them. I prefer encouragement to fear mongering.

Encouragement: Bleach is answer! We’ll have a vaccine on November 4th if you re-elect Trump! If anyone disagrees, they get fired!!

Fear-mongering: Follow medical advice. Test. Wear a mask.

Check out this absolutely, fucking damning Op-Ed piece against Matt Gaetz. If Florida newspapers are calling out Republicans like this, things will swing.

Here’s a snippet:

Until a “disinformation campaign” helmed by Matt Gaetz derailed it.

The 60 Minutes piece showed Gaetz going on Fox News to claim that a Wuhan lab had "birthed a monster" and that America was giving $3.7 million to the Wuhan lab — something that never happened.

But that false claim was echoed by Fox and because we have a president who is more apt to watch Tucker Carlson than to read Thomas Wolfe, the lie quickly spread to the White House, where the president himself repeated it, claiming that Obama gave the $3.7 million to China. Again, never happened.

What did happen was money approved by both Trump and Obama for Daszak’s team to go hunt down viruses in far off places like bat caves before they ever have a chance to reach humans. And because Gaetz’s lie found a warm, rotten place in the mind of the president, the money was cut off two weeks ago to one of the most successful virus research efforts.

And folks say that Northwest Florida doesn't have any influence on the world!

But 60 Minutes piece isn’t really about Gaetz. It’s about something much bigger and more troubling than our petulant Panhandle politician. It’s about the life of a lie — how dimwitted and false trash-talk from a taxpayer-funded shill like Gaetz can snowball into serious action that kills the work of scientists who are venturing into dark and smelly Asian bat caves to search for cures to diseases like the one that has now crippled the world.

It’s about how a single, stupid lie on a drama-droning cable news show can mutate into actions that potentially increase danger and deaths of American citizens. Thanks Matt!

Texas and Ohio are not tossups. And there is no way that Florida and Wisconsin are turning blue. Biden will probably still win however.

Trump has really amped up the ads here in Western PA. Previous ads were a joke and the one playing all morning seems like they slowed down the audio to make Biden sound out if it. Not putting his foot in his mouth kind of thing but more like subtly trying to push dementia or a stroke.

[quote] Texas and Ohio are not tossups. And there is no way that Florida and Wisconsin are turning blue.

I'd love to know on what you are basing these declarations.

[quote]I'd love to know on what you are basing these declarations.

Reality.

Rachel Maddow was pushing the “Hillary might win Texas in a landslide” like of bullshit back in 2016 too. Don’t fall for it again.

FYI, R27, the answer is troll.

Trump is preparing to take this election to the Supreme Court. Anyone who thinks we’ll have a winner on election night hasn’t been paying attention the last four years. There isn’t going to be a concession call, there’s not going to be a speech from the rose harden the day after, and there sure as hell isnt going to be a peaceful transition of power. It’s going to get ugly. The very fabric of our constitution will be tested in every way. Buckle up.

I don't buy this for one second. Presuming Biden stays as the nominee, the amount of people dead, plus the severity of a second wave of Coronavirus, will determine turnout this fall. If the death numbers are mostly minorities, as many studies have shown, then Biden is fucked. If Trump loses a significant amount of his voters, then it's Biden's to lose. Also, who is most likely going to risk getting Coronavirus to go to the polls? The people who support Trump think this is all a hoax and will show up to vote for him no matter what. Biden's voters will not risk death to vote against Trump, especially not the elderly or those in high risk groups. This chart is wishful thinking. It's not taking into account reality.

They're flailing (the Trump machine). The coordinated "Blame China" followed by the "Blame Obama" trying to get some traction. A long way to go to the election, but right now Biden is in such at better position than Trump. As R31 says, I am sure there are drafts of challenges to the election... and look soon for the preparatory rhetoric... "illegals voting" will be a road sign.

Stay vigilant. Get voter turnout HIGH, and this dark night of American history could end.....

R8 "I will not rest until January 20, 2021. "

I will not rest until I dance on his grave.

R26 One thing to remember about PA, is how much the Trump campaign was able to turn out the Amish vote last time. They are largely left out of polling. Trump's less than 1% win in PA can be, at least partly attributed to them.

Why would Amish vote for Trump?

This explains Dump's tweet aimed at McConnell the other day trying to get his support for the Obamagate BS: "Time is running out. Get tough and move quickly, or it will be too late."

R32, if you don’t think people will risk their lives to vote out Trump, you have a giant surprise coming. 2018 and the recent Wisconsin race were just the appetizers.

R25 Florida voted for Obama. If all the right people get to vote the result will favor Biden. Pennsylvania will definitely vote for Biden this time.

Steve Schmidt says it all.

This is true, r35, but I didn't think the Amish watched television. But I have seen them on Amtrak going from Ohio/Pittsburgh to the Philly area so who knows.

The Supreme Court will decide it.

Kenneth Blackwell will decide it.

Is good. Machines programmed.

Now you have glass of best Russian vodka.

I wholly agree with you, R21.

The goal is chaos and 45 is a puppet, not the master. I think it's entirely possible that he has somehow convinced himself that he is in charge. But the fact of the matter is that he only actually acts as he is told or led.

The other component to this, as I have said before, is that the R leadership has been slogging away at this for over 40 years. McConnell is almost 80. One of the Koch brothers died recently. Who are they doing this for? They have to know that they will not be around to enjoy it. At this point they are fighting to win the war just for the sake of bragging rights in Hell. Who will be left to lead when this is over? Sexkitten Ivanka? Thing One and Thing Two? Drunk Gaetz and Shrill-Stefanik? The average deplorable cannot even manage to put down the Hostess Ding-Dongs and get out of their mobility mobile so how could they possibly rebuild or lead a new (old) nation?

I strongly believe the panic is not about re-election but rather how to destroy, rape & loot as much of the country as possible before either a revolution (not likely) or total destruction.

R41 The ads aren't for the Amish, it is to try and keep the non-Amish vote close so that the Amish can come in and put him over-the-top.

R40, Steve Schmidt is a hack. Among other things, he predicted that Hillary's Electoral College total would be over 400 in 2016.

"I don't think (Trump) would panic, period. I don't think he genuinely cares"

Oh foolish one, Trump cares because if he doesn't win he'll be a LOSER. His worst fear come true.

Right now, Ohio is a tossup. The solid blue north needs to get out the vote and sweep Biden to the victory, as it did with Obama twice. The vote was down a bit for Clinton, because she ignored the area. The governor is not a Trumpster and Ken Blackwell is no longer around to do his evil. The rural vote will go for Trump and will choose to remain poor. The key is the vote in the cities in the south and central parts. Solid red Columbus suburbs need to have their frau vote whittled down and Cincinnati, which has been opening up for Dems recently, must not fall back on the politics of Blackwell, Portman, Schmidt, etc. But, the key is the voter turnout in the north ( Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Toledo, Youngstown.) They turn out, Biden wins Ohio.

I'm still questioning what trump offers the Amish to make him attractive to them R41.

Ohio is not a toss up. It is solidly in the “leans Republican” camp. It wasn’t close in 2016 and the midterms, during a blue wave, weren’t good for dems either. Young people are fleeing Ohio like the sinking ship it is. The demographic changes are not favorable to dems. The only reason it’s not “likely R” is because Biden performs much better with white men than Hillary did. It could tip Ohio.

The Amish are ultra conservative and many farm.

R49 Last time it had a lot to do with the fact he was running against a woman. But, as separatists they are also very open to the political argument that the government should have little to no say in the lives of citizens. Trump presents that argument a lot.

" Leans Republican" means it's till a tossup. 538 has Trump by 2, but only 725 voters were polled. The B-W poll has Biden winning. The key is northern Ohio.

Funny how they all fall for that R49 while the people they vote in try to legislate morality.

My two cents on why Florida is in play this time: 1.) Vast, staggering unemployment; the misery index will be off the chart by October. 2.) The ballot initiative to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour will bring more poor voters to the polls. 3.) Intense voter registration efforts are underway. 4.) Non-white population gains/aging white population dying off. 5.) Biden is an old, white man, aka 'presidential' in minds of many voters.

[quote]f a Republican in California can flip a seat in a toss-up district that Hillary Clinton won comfortably in 2016 by around 7%, and that the Democratic candidate won by 8% in 2018,

That loss is hinky, to say the least. Republicans in California have been pulling some weird shit, the most obvious being all of these "special" elections being held [italic]between[/italic] the primary and general, in the middle of a pandemic when no one is paying attention to small-ball politics. In other words, this was not a race to hold up as a barometer. And, of course, we have a complete do-over in 6 months.

R56 It wasn't the Republicans who scheduled the election. The all-party primary was held on Super Tuesday along with the Presidential one, this election was the runoff. The turnout for the runoff was higher than during the primary, 173,322 compared to 161,860, which suggests the people of the district were paying attention. The Republican candidate managed, during the pandemic, to add almost 54,000 voters to his total, while the Democrat was able to only add around 20,000. For that to happen, during a pandemic, it suggests to me that how the pandemic is viewed on the ground might be different from how it is viewed in the media. Especially, in states where some of the population feel that the Democratic governors are being too heavy-handed.

R57, your conclusion is laughable and wrong.

R38 The midterms happened before this pandemic when it was safe to go to the polls. That's not the case any longer. Also, almost 100,000 more voters were alive at that time. It's a different ball game now. I would be surprised if they were going to risk death to vote against Trump, but frankly, considering how Republicans go out of their way to make voting difficult in normal times, I doubt you're going to see a big turnout for Biden. This website was absolutely positive that Hillary was going to win four years ago. That should show you the political instincts of the people that post here. Just saying.

Build the Blue Wall and make Trump pay for it!!

Re: Florida. I'd like to add that seniors vote. Florida is full of seniors who vote.

However, these seniors have also seen numerous rethugs, INCLUDING their orange idiot, say they should die to help the economy. They've heard these same assholes say that 1-2% of their grandchildren should be sacrificed for the sake of the economy.

Now, I'm not a senior but I were to hear some politician say that Celts should be sacrificed for him to look better, I'd cut that bitch.

These seniors may ignore these attacks or figure it's a joke. Until they start losing people close to them. Then they will be pissed.

R61 Also the slice of jewish seniors who were lured over to the Orange Side by Israel stuff.... is likely to return to voting Blue. Just 1-2% of Seniors shifting votes from 2016 is enough to capture FLA

I am really tired of the trope that polls in 2016 predicted Hillary would win, so therefore the polls that currently show Biden winning are BS.

We've had almost 4 years of Dump and his incompetence and criminality. In 2016, he had no political record--he has one now and the American public has had enough.

Quit comparing apples to oranges.

There have also been a lot of people from Puerto Rico who have settled in Florida since 2016. They're citizens, so they get a vote, and they HAAAAATE him.

The map is hardly wishful thinking. I would say the chance that Texas or Ohio vote blue is very low, but they will likely come within <5% of doing so. For TX, that’s a huge deal. 10-15 years ago, the Republican nominee would’ve won by double digits.

If you look at the data behind the poll numbers, they show Biden leading with seniors in several states. Prior to the Tara Reade crap, Biden was also doing okay with younger voters and women, but he has lost a bit of ground with thise two since Reade. GenX is the only demo where Trump had a slight edge.

Florida was very close in 2016. The diff between Trump and Hillary was less than half the vote that went to third parties, “spoilers”. So, this time, we need no spoilers.

In general, I’d say Trump has added little to his “base” and has lost a lot of “independents”. Florida has more Puerto Rican voters this time. It has more former prisoners, though the Right seems successful suppressing their vote. All-in-all, I’d say Biden wins Florida by a wide margin. Nobody hates him the way some hated Hillary. That will be HUGE!

I heard the same of North Caroline, that it is simply not stupid enough to vote for Trump .

All we need is no “Spoilers”. No major Biden gaffs. And Joe has to keep breathing thru Election Day. There will be trouble thereafter, but Joe will win the electoral college. He’ll win the popular vote, and he’ll win public opinion.

Trump will call for rebellion. I used to think that was far fetched, but HE HAS ALREADY DONE THIS! In Michigan, last week or so. The nut jobs who brought guns to their State House to force the State to “Open Up”. It really ought to be more newsy. The President called for armed rebellion. Anyway, he’ll lose, but there will be some trouble.

R67 We've lost, what, 80,000 Americans now to Covid-19? I say, great that Trump is egging on the protesters. Let the Mask-less Protests continue. All we need is 78,000 more deaths across 3 borderline states and we're home!

Trump thinks emotionally, not intelligently. Those images of his white trash base brandishing assault rifles *turns off female voters*. He is already losing them, overwhelmingly. More WT 'rebellions' will translate into Biden votes.

R69, he’s never been able to satisfy women.

It's so simple. Stop the open borders shit, and the Democrats will win next election and most elections after it. Just stop the open borders shit, demonizing males, and pretending whites are uniquely evil. You'll win by a huge margin, every time. It couldn't be simpler.

And then there’s this from the NYT.

“Last month, a poll commissioned by the Republican National Committee tested roughly 20 lines of attack against Mr. Biden, ranging from the private business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, to whether Mr. Biden has “lost” a step, a reference to mental acuity. None of the lines of attack significantly moved voter sentiment, according to two people briefed on the results. There were some lines of attack that had potential, one of the people briefed on the results said, but they were more traditional Republican broadsides about issues like taxes.”

[quote]Just stop the open borders shit, demonizing males, and pretending whites are uniquely evil.

Democrats have NEVER advocated open borders. That is conservative propaganda. We have loads of restrictions on who can come in to the country.

Who's demonizing males?

R73, they are using rightwing talking points.

Suggestion for the Biden campaign:

Trump has shown repeatedly he has no empathy, hasn't expressed any (or little) mournful words for the many thousands of Americans who have died from Covid-19, gutted the CDC which is why we were not prepared for the Pandemic, used that money for his wall and personal golf weekends, and continues to encourage Americans to protest while not wearing masks, thus putting their own lives at risk so he can "save the economy"....

To Trump "No Lives Matter!"

If you want to live, vote for Biden. If you don't, vote for Trump.

[quote]Mr. Biden has “lost” a step, a reference to mental acuity. None of the lines of attack significantly moved voter sentiment, according to two people briefed on the results.

This alone should tell you that people want anyone or anything than Trump.

But, does all of this polling really matter at this point? I thought that after Labor Day is when you're really supposed to take anything seriously? Anyway... maybe not. I've noticed that the Trump internet trolls are out in FULL FORCE and OVER DRIVE today! They must have been PISSED TO PISSTIVITY because a lot of sites shut down their comment sections after President Obama's speeches to the 2020 graduates. I guess they feel that they will make up for it today?

r71 is yet another irresponsible "It's your fault that I voted for a person who an astronaut in orbit in 2016 could see was raving, dangerous idiot" Trump voter.

Ever notice how they never own it?

Once Obama comes out and starts campaigning for Biden, it's a done deal. Obama knows how to play 45 like a good guitar, and he will get in the necessary blows, while pretending to be vague and nondescript when asked about 45 directly.

[quote]but they were more traditional Republican broadsides about issues like taxes.”

I don't think republicans want to go down this road. The tax cut that was done a few years ago is certain to be repealed and in order to cover for the trillions being spent now a tax increase on top of the repeal is needed.

[quote] Obama knows how to play 45 like a good guitar

Speaking of, what does "PM45" mean? I've seen that on Twitter and several boards.

R76 the only historically accurate polls are exit polls and when the exit polls don’t match the tally election fraud has been committed.

Another thought: don't forget the pending SCOTUS decision about his financial documents. They have delicately implied they aren't siding completely with him. What's he hiding? Have you ever seen a person spend so much time and money concealing his innocence?

Can you even imagine Trump at the inauguration of Joe Biden? There is no way he would exit gracefully.

I think Trump will be on his way to Moscow before the inauguration. Good chance anyway. He faces prosecution in NY State.

[quote]Nobody hates him the way some hated Hillary. That will be HUGE!

This is probably the key. So many of the Trump votes in 2016 were former Obama voters who just couldn’t stand Hillary. Take her out of the equation and things change quite a bit.

I actually that he won't show up, R83. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

Everything would be better if he didn't show up. Look at how much joy there is at the Kennedy Center Honors. If he were there, none of that joy would be present, because everyone would just have to look at his scowling face throughout.

R84

Biden, who admittedly can seem a little shambled and herky-jerky in his speaking style, had his best moment this week when he was on MSNBC and they asked him if, like Gerald Ford, he would pardon Trump in the name of national unity.

Joe looked into the camera, "no." That was all.

Heard it all before but still haven't seen any actual panic.

Sept 20, 2019 The Atlnativ

Trump Is Panicking

Apr. 10, 2020 New York Magazine

Trump Wants to Reopen the Economy Because He’s Panicking About Reelection Polls

Apr 1, 2020 Vanity Fair

Search Results Web results

Apr 4, 2020 - Trump's daily briefings give us encouragement by finding out what is being done to conquer the coronavirus.

“The Campaign Panicked”

Sept 12, 2019 - The New York Times

Trump Hits the Panic Button

Sept 30, 2019 Denver Post

Trump is cornered -- and panicking about it

and so on and so forth for years.

Florida will be a coin flip, like always. Decided by less than 2 points.

"I am really tired of the trope that polls in 2016 predicted Hillary would win, so therefore the polls that currently show Biden winning are BS."

I agree, R63. And the fact is that Biden has ALWAYS beaten Trump in polls, go back and check. It's fluctuated , but I cannot recall a national poll where Trump wins over Biden. Of course that's not the electoral college. We mustn't get complacent.

[quote]Just stop the open borders shit, demonizing males, and pretending whites are uniquely evil.

In other words, let pretend your hyperbolic bullshit has any resemblance to reality. Hilarious how you get to claim there's this "open borders" crap ie., demonizing brown people in the same breath as whining there's some imaginary policy put out by Democrats that specifically targets "whites."

Other way of saying it: You're projecting like a typical, Trump-enabling garbage person. You get to be a prejudiced scumbag targeting people as you LIE about Dems specifically targeting white people. How about this, fuckface: I quote all of the vile things Trump has said/tweeted/attempted to enact against non-whites and you do the same for Obama or any other Dem president or nominee.

YOU FIRST. Show us all of the policies that the Democratic party have attempted to enact that was specifically based on viewing white people as "evil" because already fucking know Trump has done that to others who AREN'T white.

BTW, fucking moron: The god damned nominee of the Democratic party IS A *WHITE MALE* or didn't you notice? Get back to me when the GOP nominates someone NOT born on third, white and male.

Oh please OP. I'm so sure Trump is panicking from Joe Biden and these stupid polls.

A panicking Trump is a dangerous Trump, he will do virtually anything to win, legal or illegal, right or wrong.

A panicking Trump is a dangerous Trump, he will do virtually anything to win, legal or illegal, right or wrong.

The day Trump panics will be the day he realizes he's going to win again.

The Atlnativ???

R94? He's tweeting out idiotic memes of himself and "obamagate" like a child. He fires anyone who dares question him. He is a fucking child. WTF is wrong with people like you that you see him as normal because he sure as hell isn't to anyone who actually is normal.

He isn't the problem at this point because he's a ball of psychotic vileness. The question is: Why are you (if you're a supporter) such a damaged individual that he is someone you look up to? What kind of upbringing must you have had to have not even a shred of decency and see that pile of shit as fit to be president? Biden may not be "all there" but the people around him are who I trust. Why you would trust people like Jared Kushner and Stephen Miller, is beyond me.

[quote]We've lost, what, 80,000 Americans now to Covid-19?

R68, as of this post, it's currently 90,960. And that's probably an undercount, because some states (like Florida) are no longer officially counting the Covid-19 dead, at Trump's behest.

If this map is wrong about Florida, N Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin, that leaves the Biden total 269 with 270 needed to win.

I wonder if Stacy Adams as VP could flip Georgia, even though she couldn't win it as Governor and not lose any other state. That would be 16 more Electoral College votes.

Florida voting machines will be manipulated. Never depend on Florida.

[quote]And there is no way that Florida and Wisconsin are turning blue.

Biden is currently leading in new state polling this week for both Florida and Wisconsin.

But yes, those 2 states will still be close.

There must be a percentage of people who may vote for Biden, but don't believe he will make it through the full term. These people are looking beyond Biden, to who the vice president will be, as they believe this person will become president. Will some of them decide not to vote if they don't like the v.p. pick?

It's ridiculous that it's even close at this point. Biden should be leading in a blowout.

WTF is wrong with people? Forget whether he's doing a good or bad job. He's not even doing a job, period. He's done nothing this entire pandemic. Absolutely nothing.

Notice how in the center of OBAMAGATE is MAGA.

[quote]It's ridiculous that it's even close at this point. Biden should be leading in a blowout.

In a polarized electorate with each party guaranteed a certain percentage of the vote, you're not going to see either side win with a blowout anymore.

The days of a Presidential nominee sweeping the country and winning 40+ states are over for the foreseeable future.

To get 270 electoral votes, the Democrats need all the blue states Hillary won in 2016 plus PA, WI and MI. If one of those states goes red, then The Dems need to win another red state. I see a possibility that Wisconsin stays red but the Democrats could pick up NC, Florida, Ohio or Arizona. If they don't win one of those states they can't win. Could they get Iowa back into the blue column?

[quote]The days of a Presidential nominee sweeping the country and winning 40+ states are over for the foreseeable future.

We'll see, R107.

The Democrats have the best chance at picking up Arizona and North Carolina. Florida and Ohio are lost causes.

R104, the VP pick is hugely important this time around.

If you want to see how presidential races were won in history by electoral college, click on the link. In 1896 the red states of today were blue and the blue states of today went red.

R110, Arizona is definitely the most winnable for a Democrat since Bill Clinton won it in 1996.

1) Biden has been ahead of Trump in the last 7 or 8 Arizona polls

2) the Dems won the Arizona Senate seat in 2018 (Krysten Sinema)

3) And the Dems are now leading in the other Arizona Senate seat (Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally)

I don't know why trump is panicking. Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona's electoral college delegates will vote for trump

Those are 3 shit states full of deplorables

If the Orange Fuckturd loses on November 3, he will not make a concession speech. He will claim, without evidence, there is massive voting fraud. He will rant and rave like the lunatic that he is, tweeting, retweeting, angry tweeting and tweeting some more about how the system is rigged against him. He will not invite Biden to the White House post-election. He will let his team sabotage as much as they can so the incoming administration is left scrambling (luckily Biden is a former VP and knows his way around transitions from one admin to another), and he will not go to the inauguration. He will be in FL before the New Year, leaving it to his staff to clean up his four-year mess.

Remember, the Orange Fucktwad does not do losing.

[quote]He isn't the problem at this point because he's a ball of psychotic vileness. The question is: Why are you (if you're a supporter) such a damaged individual that he is someone you look up to? What kind of upbringing must you have had to have not even a shred of decency and see that pile of shit as fit to be president?

Yep. The problem is the Trump supporter.

They've got "Republican Strategist" Turdblossom Rove out there trashing Obama. He's a virulent racist and psychotically hates O.

It's too early. Trump will start a war before he will let himself lose.

[quote] This is probably the key. So many of the Trump votes in 2016 were former Obama voters who just couldn’t stand Hillary. Take her out of the equation and things change quite a bit.

I live in NYC and yet I had screaming matches with co-workers who repeatedly said things in 2016 like 'She is no better than he is'. I'm amazed I wasn't hauled into HR and written up. I finally had to stop socializing at lunch because I was getting so aggravated.

I seriously think there were people who, for whatever reason, 1) just will not vote for a woman and 2) have an irrational hatred of the Clintons. Add into the mix media like the NY Times showing Clinton with a 93-7 chance of winning which then gave those people an excuse to either stay home or vote third-party as a protest ('She's going to win anyway, she doesn't need my vote'). I think this time nobody is taking anything for granted.

It doesn’t matter, R115. Stop giving him so much power. He has no personal power, he just wields the power of the office. Every losing Republican candidate since 1960 has complained that it was fixed. Who cares? Come 20/01/21 - he’s outta there!

[quote] Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona's electoral college delegates will vote for trump

Do you know how this works at all?

What R31 said!

R119 "have an irrational hatred of the Clintons"

I've always questioned this too. Hillary's approval rating was like 80% when she was Obama's SOS. Then, she pissed off Putin, and suddenly Fox News and other Right-Wing outlets were filled with stories about Benghazi and Uranium One. Then all over Facebook. Putin had started his misinformation campaign, picked up by the Right-wing outlets, and all of a sudden, rationally-seeming people hated Hillary but just couldn't "put my finger on why". It was the repetition of the stories. They kept hearing them so there had to be some truth to them. It's how it starts....

Anyway, that's just my theory.

R120 I didn't mean to imply that he wouldn't leave office if he loses. I fully expect him to leave.

R119, it was cause by the tsunami of Russian anti-Clinton propaganda, featuring such all-time bullshit greats as

* Hillary's a lesbian

* Hillary stole money intended for a Haitian hospital

* Uranium One

* Childporn ring in the pizza parlor basement

* Hillary Clinton had [insert name] killed

* Benghazi

Etc, etc. So many lies were thrown at the wall, at least one or two stuck for a lot of people. It was a very successful strategy.

Yeah, what R31 said. I second.

Two scenarios:

A) Biden wins: Trump encourages the Deplorables to riot in the streets, and they bring it to the now corrupted Supreme Court as all hell breaks loose across the country.

B) Trump wins - (most likely illegitimately like the first time, because the Republicans in charge DID NOTHING to fix our voting system). All hell breaks loose. Both scenarios are beyond hideous.

Something has to be done before either of these inevitable scenarios. This sounds crazy, but there is more and more evidence that the election of 2016 WAS hacked/rigged.... whatever. Is there some way (and I don't necessarily mean Constitutionally) that the results of the 2016 election can be nullified? We absolutely did not get the person we voted for! And the criminals in charge continued committing crimes to insure the 2020 election would be fixed as well.

If there is any way in hell this can be done, well, I just don't see any other way out of this.

^I disagree, R125. The hatred of the Clintons--especially Hillary Clinton, goes all the way back to when Bill was Governor of Arkansas.

I blame Hillary for the outcome of that 2016 election. She and her team were just simply too smart for their own goods and did very little to combat a narrative that grew over at least a 30 year period. That election was her's to lose. She lost it.

[quote] her's

Never this. Ever.

R32 speaks a lot of sense. This is exactly how it will play out.

[quote]^I disagree, [R125]. The hatred of the Clintons--especially Hillary Clinton, goes all the way back to when Bill was Governor of Arkansas.

R127 - Most of that never had much circulation except among Republicans and NRA readership. It didn't enter national discourse the way the Russian propaganda push of 2016 did.

[quote]I blame Hillary for the outcome of that 2016 election.

But of course you do.

Cut to January 2021 when we’re seeing Trump sworn into office again.

With more Californians moving to Nevada it’s a solid blue state. Democratic governor, two Democratic senators.

A bright spot for me, is that I fully expect the Republican Party to be decimated. Nationwide, they will lose power at every level.

I understand that it will be the upcoming State legislatures that will then be re-drawing electoral boundaries, right? This means that the we’ll get the bluest representation possible, just when it matters, for the next decade. IIRC, the Republicans rode a Red wave just before the 2010 redistributing, which worked against us. I’m hoping this blue surge works as I’ve suggested.

"I blame Hillary for the outcome of that 2016 election."

I blame James Comey and the infamous, unnecessary letter. Now let's MOVE ON.

I'm skeptical of this leak. The GOP/Trump team use their internal polling to determine where to cheat by suppressing votes and other means. The only way Trump would panic is if the party's resources were denied to him to help, and there's not sign that is the case.

Also, TX is not a tossup. No way. In a couple more election cycles it might be, and maybe even leaning Dem, but not yet. OH is probably a tossup in a legit election, but with GOP cheating it will lean R unless there's massive De turnout.

R126 Your scenarios are possible. This election will be the dirtiest ever. Each month leading up to November will become more intense and unbelievable. After the election, most people will be shaking their heads, wondering why we didn't take out Trump while we had time. Besides the election gearing up like a war, we will also have the Coronavirus coming back with all its fury while we are still dealing with a botched up hurricane season cleanup. Stopping Trump, Barr and McConnell now, in retrospect, will seem like the lesser of evils.

I live in Ohio and it's definitely going red again. The main reason being that the majority of the people who hate Trump don't vote. Also most Democrats here think Biden is a doddering old fool but they will still vote for him because they have no other choice.

I myself will abstain again. Most people vote against and not for a candidate. The political system in our country is a complete joke and has been for a long time.

I know I will get shit because I'm not voting but if you vote for someone and they turn out to be a complete disaster you have no one to blame but yourself and you have no right to complain. I, on the other hand, can't complain all I want.

When I wrote that I blame Hillary it was because I do. First, I was never a really excited voter for her but it was quite obvious that she was a better fit for the job. I never questioned that Hillary could do the job. She can and would have been an excellent manager. But, I never heard or felt a vision from her. It was this feeling that caused me to vote for Obama (and happily so) the first time.

Then Hillary was just too numbers and written oriented to me. I read all of her proposals and they were quite good. She made one speech about each proposal and that was it. Where was the passion? She just didn't work passionately and hard enough for the job to me. I came to believe that she believed her own press and polling. SURPRISE!

She was the opposite of say an Elizabeth Warren who came across as very passionate about her ideas even if I disagreed with them. Elizabeth always came across as enjoying campaigning and meeting the people. I loved her line; "I don't understand why people run for president if they're afraid to think and go big!"

[quote]I, on the other hand, [bold]can't[/bold] complain all I want.

Freudian slip, R137.

Arizona, my state, is going blue this time. Mark Kelly is going to win his Senate race, right now he's 6-7 points ahead. I believe Biden will ride Kelly's coattails.

R137, no, we get to complain about YOU. We didn't vote for Trump, you did. If I didn't vote, it wouldn't matter - I'm a NYer. YOU had an opportunity to keep a complete clown like Trump from getting into the WH and didn't.

When did I write that I voted for Trump? LOL! Far, far, FAR, from it! I knew the mess we would be in. I voted for Hillary. I just wasn't an enthusiastic voter for her.

I didn't vote for Trump or anyone else R141. Your argument is pointless. If you were pro Trump you would say my not voting was a vote for Hillary. It makes no difference, none of them give a shit about any of us, they are just taking care of themselves.

I don't think the election will be that dirty. They tried with Hunter Biden, and it didn't work. I think their "October surprise" was going to be trotting out a woman or several women accusing Biden of misconduct, but Bernie or busters beat them to the punch with Tara Reide. And it didn't work. Now you have the guy in the White House bringing up some "Obamagate" that no one knows what he's talking about. There's really no rabbit hole for them to go down that's going to obscure an ecomomic depression to rival the Great Depression. And it's always been about the economy. If he can't get the economy back to the way it was, he's done. No manufactured scandal is going to change that.

Good.

[quote] It makes no difference, none of them give a shit about any of us, they are just taking care of themselves.

That you think this means you are really, really stupid. And that anything else you type is not worth reading.

R143, that's a lazy mentality to have. You think the Republicans getting to choose yet another SC justice when RBG dies is the same as a Dem getting that choice? You think Kavanaugh or Gorsuch being on the court is the same as if Dems chose? Are you even gay? Are you one of these people who thinks the Iraq war - a disastrous lie under the GOP- happens and then it just ends and we get a do-over? No, we get years of attacks and the rise of ISIS. So when someone like you with your "both sides" crap just wait until McConnell and the GOP leadership who come after him just choose every fucking justice on the court along with lower courts and when you see the reversal of human rights on behalf of "religious freedom" will you then just pretend you weren't part of the reason why it happened and continue your lazy "they're the same" nonsense?

[quote]Then Hillary was just too numbers and written oriented to me. I read all of her proposals and they were quite good. She made one speech about each proposal and that was it. Where was the passion? She just didn't work passionately and hard enough for the job to me. I came to believe that she believed her own press and polling. SURPRISE!

Women are always held to a different standard. And Elizabeth Warren has gotten those very same complaints

Frankly, if either of them berated supporters and told them to vote for someone else the way Biden did, they would have been accused of being irrational and unfit for the office. And that would have been after the first time. They certainly wouldn't have been able to do it numerous times.

[quote]Most of that never had much circulation except among Republicans and NRA readership. It didn't enter national discourse the way the Russian propaganda push of 2016 did.

That’s nonsense, R130. People were well aware of Hillary’s many scandals, as far back as 1994 when she was forced to hold this press conference from the White House...to answer questions and gain control of the narrative regarding her shady dealings in the Whitewater scandal.

Putin will see to it that Biden gets infected with COVED-19. The Russians are good at that, and actually have a lot of practice infecting people. They infected a popular Ukrainian Presidential candidate, over a decade ago. They infected a number of people with some ghastly poison in London. I think they poisoned a Georgian lead term too. And they gave Hillary pneumonia in 2016. They’ll infect Biden, and if Trump wins the election as a result, the Russians will not be punished.

I see this as clear as sunrise on a day in May.

That may is likely very true. Remember, they did internal polls. They showed the WH resident getting his ass handed to him in red states as well. Texas is very much in play.

People forget- Hillary actually did better in some states like TX. She did the best a Dem has done there since Carter won it in '76.

R149 HER shady dealings? The ones even Ken Starr couldn't prove over YEARS of searching? I would love to see Pres Bone Spurs do 11 straight hours of testifying. I'd love to see him get investigated by a partisan (like Starr was ) and come out clean like the Clintons did.

[quote] regarding her shady dealings in the Whitewater scandal

Your bias is showing.

There was nothing shady about Whitewater. The NYT story that started the whole mess was flat out WRONG. And 20 fucking years later, the NYT screwed her again.

"Back in 1992, Times reporter Jeff Gerth wrote a story about how the Clintons were involved in a seemingly shady real estate deal called Whitewater. It suggested that the Clintons had gotten a big share of potential profits without putting up much cash, and that Bill Clinton had used his power as Arkansas governor to protect a savings and loan owned by a Whitewater associate from being closed down by the feds.

Just as with the most recent story, about every part of Gerth's account was wrong or misleading, as Joe Conason and Gene Lyons wrote in their book on the Clinton impeachment, The Hunting of the President. The Clintons actually lost a ton of money on the deal, and the Arkansas government had recommended to the feds that the S&L be liquidated.

But that was only the start of hundreds of Whitewater articles and reports. The political press ditched any notion of objectivity and pursued the Clintons with a deranged, prudish zealotry. These journalists never actually revealed any concrete wrongdoing, but the incessant repetition convinced many that the Clintons must have done something wrong — which eventually led to the appointment of a special prosecutor. The rest is history."

[quote]Women are always held to a different standard. And Elizabeth Warren has gotten those very same complaints

That might be true, R148. But, not for me. Hillary just did not come across as genuine to me but Elizabeth Warren did. Even Amy Klobuchar came across as more genuine.

[quote][R149] HER shady dealings? The ones even Ken Starr couldn't prove over YEARS of searching?

Look... I'd say that the issue was/is that established Republicans feared Hillary Clinton because she was board room smart. The impression I have of her is that she could successfully run a Fortune 10 company easily. It still scares a lot of men to be told what to do and beaten by a girl.

Hillary has been a main target of lies by Fox and their kind for 40 years. They feared her, and worked to poison her reputation, based on fiction.

When she became Secretary of State, I watched how there was an orchestrated process where the Right was widely praising her - it was solely to try to get under Obama’s skin, and it didn’t work. After some months of that, they went back on the attack. That was Hillary’s problem: the liars at Fox and the stupidity of people who listen to Fox and it’s ilk.

Wow R146 & R147 you really swallowed the Kool-Aid. This is why nothing ever changes.

And asking me if I'm "even gay" because I don't agree with you is pretty fucking sad.

And the NYT is going to try their best to screw Biden as well. Led by this useless asshole and her insider gossip masquerading as journalim:

[quote] This is why nothing ever changes.

Yes, I'm sure your plan to do nothing will create great change.

And you didn't respond to a single actual difference between Trump in charge vs. Biden in charge, demonstrating you have no actual argument.

I want to believe anything that says Biden will win. And I know he has a good shot.

However, despite the encouraging polls and optimistically blue-colored maps: TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED!

Act like your life depends on it--because it does. It ain't over til it's over.

Remember when he said, "Vote for me what do you have to lose?" Well.........................

Justin Amash dropped out. He says he won’t run third party.

So doesn’t that help Biden?

R161, I think a run by Amash would have helped Biden. His withdrawal hurts Biden. But not by much.

"I fully expect the Republican Party to be decimated."

It already has. That's why they went to the Russians to win in 2016. And probably will again in 2020.

R162 I agree, him running would have helped Biden. No doubt he cut some deal with McConnell and the GOP to drop out--they are seeing the internal polling and seeing that Rump will lose bigly so they need every single vote they can get. Amash is a slimeball, I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him.

R161, do you have a head injury? No, that helps Trump. How many democrats do you think were going to vote for Amash over Biden? How many non-psychotic Republicans and Independents might have voted for Amash over Trump? Does your brain not work?

[quote]And asking me if I'm "even gay" because I don't agree with you is pretty fucking sad.

No, what's sad is you thinking I drank kool-aid because I'm not ignorant enough to think there is no difference between a GOP admin choosing the Supreme court justices along with lower courts and a Democratic admin. choosing those justices. And yes, my question about you being gay is a valid one considering your flippant viewpoint.

You are in fact lazy in how you think if you define that as me "drinking kool-aid." Or are you just a troll? I'd prefer you were trolling. I'd hate to think you were this genuinely proud of being so dumb in thinking this is about me or anyone else "swooning" over the Dems when it's more about basic common sense. How stupid are you that you think there isn't a difference between the two parties? It's like thinking drunk driving and jaywalking are equally bad crimes. I voted for Hillary knowing I disliked her because only an idiot would think she and Trump are "the same."

Don't be proud of being so ignorant and lazy.

I posted this article in the "Amash out" thread. I think he's out because internal polling showed he would have helped Biden. He'd rather Trump win again than a Dem.

The GOP is thoroughly corrupt. Every last one of them.

What's your plan R158? To vote for Biden because he cares about us? Assuming he wins, let's see where we're at in two years. There will still be the 1% and then all the rest of us. This is not going to change and if you think it is you are delusional.

So you are going to keep brushing away the very real differences between Biden and Trump without response? Got it.

When Trump loads you into the cattle car to your concentration camp take comfort in Biden would have done that too since there is no difference between them.

R167 I hadn't read that piece yet, it was just my observations about Amash. I really was skeptical of all of the left wing cheerleading for him when he left the Republican party, but tends to happen with social media and the MSM.

I mean, come on, Amash rode in on the Tea Party wave--it's like people completely forgot about all of that because he spoke out about the Orange Shitgibbon and voted for impeachment.

Isn't it funny how people who supposedly care about the "99%" are so angry at the prospects of a Biden president and have a "meh" response to a Trump presidency? How are you so fucking warped?

It's like being cattle who whines about the guy who puts you in a small pasture to graze but you don't react to the other guy holding the ax.

I didn't say there wasn't a difference R166, I said it doesn't matter. And you didn't vote for Hillary, you voted against Trump. Big difference.

R172 does not understand how our political system works.

If I can't vote FOR the one person I like, I'm taking my toys and going home.

[quote] I didn't say there wasn't a difference [R166], I said it doesn't matter.

And yet when confronted with real differences you have no response.

[quote] And you didn't vote for Hillary, you voted against Trump. Big difference.

You have a very variable understanding of the word difference.

And I voted FOR Clinton because I thought she was eminently qualified. The fact that Trump was a certifiable moron was secondary.

Both sides are the same? Not voting for either? I smell the unwashed ass of a Bernie Bro in here.

I'm glad you voted for Clinton because you thought she was the most qualified for the job R174. That's what your vote is for, not because you didn't want Trump to win.

I think some of you are upset because you think I am defending Trump in some way. I'm not. He's a horrible president and an even worse human being. I've been around a long time and things don't change all that much. The economy goes up, the economy goes down, just like taxes and gas prices and wages. We have no control over it.

[quote] The economy goes up, the economy goes down, just like taxes and gas prices and wages. We have no control over it.

Politicians do. That's why you should vote.

Some people posting here have shit for brains. Compare Biden's platform and Trump's platform and tell me which of the two favors the 99 percent. Free college, student debt forgiveness, the Green New Deal, abortion rights. The list is endless. Bullshit.

So thanks for letting us know you don't support a woman's right to choose or marriage equality R176. Got it. Which one is going to nominate justices that take those way?

R176 is a Bernie Bro that hated Hillary and wants to win an argument.

I'm not marrying any of these people, we live in a 2 party system where you vote for the one that most aligns with your policy preferences (and yes, sometimes you are voting against someone).

Get over yourself, you're not voting for a life partner but a politician.

Clinton and Biden are just "same old, same old" politicians. They really work for the rich. They throw a few bones out to the poor people, but not many

Not much would change under either of them. That's why a lot of people weren't happy to vote for her and a lot of people can't get excited voting for him. If trump were a half way decent person, biden wouldn't stand any chance. The only reason he stands any chance is because trump is bat shit crazy and evil

R176 We have no control? Oh you simpleton.

I love how conservatives, when they know they are beat, pretend to be disaffected liberals and how both sides suck. No. Not by a long shot.

We have not had a true Democratic regime since Kennedy/Johnson. 8 years of uninterrupted Democratic policy. Since, we've only had 2 years twice. And in those two years (twice) we got a helluva lot of good shit accomplished- gun control, tax raises on the rich, health care reform- among many other things.

And then there are judges. These young right wing judges the GOP is now pushing will MAKE SURE no liberal policy ever gets implemented.

R181 is a conservative who sees their party is total shit so they have to down Dems. Got it. Troll.

Another interesting thing about the OP's map is that it shows Biden competitive in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. There have been leaked internal Democratic polls this month showing Biden competitive with Trump in Nebraska's 2nd CD (which Obama won in 2008).

We'll have to wait & see whether those numbers hold up until November.

What R182 said!

Hear, Hear!

That's a scare tactic that the Dems use R180. Roe v Wade was decided in 1973 and its never been overturned and never will be. Marriage equality is here to stay as well. Next you will say they are going to take away certain peoples right to vote. Maybe they will shutdown the press and the internet while they're at it. Not going to happen either.

And I'm not a "Bernie Bro". Nobody could have assured a Republican win than him.

Read this:

R186 Oh you're in for a rude awakening but then again, you are a right wing shill.

Wasn't there a significant number of Puerto Rico residents who moved to Florida after Hurricane Maria? And weren't they angry at Trump? Would this make a difference in Florida's election?

R189 FL is always razor thin. Always. Expect it to be this time. It is almost too razor thin too often. Like by design.

Yes, Florida is likely to be decided by a very thin margin again, as it has been since 2000. Probably another 1 point or less margin.

The current FOX poll has Biden ahead in Florida by 3, and another FL poll this week has Biden ahead by 6.

But in the end it will probably be too close to call until Election Night.

I love how rightwing shills act as though they're so "woke" and it's the rest of us who are sheep.

To the fool from Ohio claiming "they're the same." How can two parties be the same when one party under Obama was the very one that formed a pandemic team to combat precisely what we're going through right now and the other party under Trump FIRED that very team? Are you really dumb enough to believe that if Hillary or Obama had heard about a pandemic back in January, they would've ignored it in favor of what their poll numbers would be? He FIRED THE FUCKING TEAM OBAMA CREATED MEANT TO CATCH THESE THINGS *BEFORE* THEY REACH US. That isn't being the same, genius. That's the very definition of opposite.

Accept your limitation. You're a shit debaters and you embarrass Ohio with your ignorance. You have no actual facts to back up your view. The sounds out of your mouth and out of your ass are the same level of toxic.

You care so little, R186/Bro, you're filling up our thread with argument. Is that right, Bro? I would think, if you really had no fucks to give, you'd either never had commented or commented the once and peaced out. But you didn't. And we know why you didn't, Bro.

You care so very much that Daddy Bernie isn't the nominee. So very much! It's ok, little Bro! Maybe he'll get to name another PO before he retires!

that was meant*

But weren't there something like 200,000 people who moved from Puerto Rico to Florida after Hurricane Maria, and they were angry at Trump?

None of these polls will matter if people don't vote. Taking Congress is just as important as taking the White House.

Can't happen soon enough, BUT GET THE FUCK OFF YOUR COUCH AND VOTE!!!

I'm so fucking sick of these idiots that I don't even bother proofreading before I post:

correction: Accept your limitations. You're a shit debater and you embarrass Ohio with your ignorance. You have no actual facts to back up your view. The sounds out of your mouth and out of your ass are the same level of toxic.

Conservatives are just toxic. They have to lie and cheat. They know their views are not popular with the majority so they have to lie and cheat.

I particularly have a hatred of gay conservatives. The party they vote for hates them. Hates them. Has actively worked to deny them rights. They will cling to old school Democrats who also denied them rights as if the parties were equal in this. Dems didn't actively try to go after gay rights. The GOP did. A vast majority of conservatives hate gays. Hate. But they love you doing their bidding. They orgasm to see a person actively working against their rights.

I have this idea that Trump will dump Pence, and make Rubio his VP. That would lock-up Florida for the Republicans, right? He needs Florida and if they like Rubio, that might save Trump from having to fight for the state.

Florida reseach: 30k-50k Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Trump beat Hillary by 113k votes. Hillary won all the urban areas except Jacksonville and St. Pete which were *very* close. 203k people died in Florida in 2017. 205k people died in Florida in 2018. Don't have the data for 2019, but we can assume the total is similar to deaths in 2017/2018. Seniors broke heavily for Trump in 2016. That's a lot of Trump voters who have died since 2016... That's a game changer.

You guys are so easy to fuck with. Thanks BROS. Think I'll pop into the most recent Madden/Froyo thread and stir up some shit there.

Isn't it minority populations that are dying most? How on earth do you conflate that with Trump supporters?

R203 Old people are dying most. That was his support.

So are the Bros arguing that Trump will nominate a Supreme Court justice who will support a woman's right to choose and marriage equality and Biden will nominate justices who vote against ? I'm so confused.

R205 You're not confused. You know the fake liberals on this site will say Dems are just as bad as GOPers without any proof.

Yeah I was being a little sarcastic.

Well not sarcastic because that 's what they are doing. Maybe i just mean the Bros are stupid at this.

R200, Rubio has occasionally, in his ineffectual way, criticized Trump over the past few years, so I don’t see Trump choosing him.

[quote] Isn't it minority populations that are dying most? How on earth do you conflate that with Trump supporters?

R201 meant death from any cause, not Covid-19. Seniors in FL supported Trump. Seniors make up the majority of those deaths. Fewer seniors means fewer votes for Trump. Also, more younger people have become voting age since 2016. That's more votes for Democrats.

Trump's not going to dump Pence for anyone. Pence knows all (or most) of Trump's secrets, at least the ones since he became POTUS. Trump is not going to chance pissing him off. A pissed off Christian will lose his religion in a heartbeat if you piss him off. A fake Christian like Pence will lose his religion over far less.

That's one of Trump's biggest problems. He always surrounds himself with people who are just as crooked as he is because he knows people with ethics and morals would never do his bidding, and since there is no honor among thieves he can never trust anyone he hires.

America's young going more conservative.

From before the last election. Has anything changed?

Additionally, millennials are more likely to identify as conservative than either Generation Xers or Baby Boomers were at the same age, said Jean Twenge, professor of psychology at San Diego State University and lead author of the paper.

"High school seniors are more likely to identify as political conservatives now compared to 10 years ago. Most surprising, more identify as conservatives now compared to the 1980s, presumably the era of the young conservative, such as the character Alex P. Keaton in the 1980s show 'Family Ties.' That goes against the common view of millennials as very liberal," said Twenge, author of the book about millennials titled "Generation Me." "So the current view of millennials as liberals might be due to their age -- young people are more likely to be liberal. But if you compare young people now to young people in previous decades, those now are more conservative," she said.

But, what is Conservatism today?

Many people are no longer "liberal" because they feel that equal rights have been reached, there's same-sex marriage, etc. These young people are still interested in climate change, universal healthcare, etc

So, what does it mean to be conservative?

Millennials were not high school seniors during the last election. Millennials were in their 20s and 30s in 2016. Not sure why Professor Jean Twenge is fudging ages to get her results but it's very suspicious.

1 year into their respective administrations, Millennials loved Obama and hated Trump.

Get out there and vote!

Teenagers know jackshit. Most merely parrot what the hear parents say politically. Most dont get political until college.

young people never vote, they never have, they never will.

Millennials are pushing 40. What is with these old farts thinking everyone is a Millennial? It’s Gen Z.

I'm panicking because the closer the election comes the more we'll be inundated with all the lies and bullshit from both parties. Our political system is completely broken and characterized by incompetent boobs on both sides.

^^^^^^^^^^^ Ladies and gentlemen, the spokesperson for bothsiderism!!! ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Polls are all bullshit. I wish muriel would somehow ban any links to polls.

Personally, I think Muriel should just go ahead and ban everything.

And on that note, here are some more polls.

+1 with r31 and r122.

IF Trump doesn't drop out if he believes he'll be a LOSER and will take his chances with not being prosecuted by New York, and he stays in and loses in November, he'll immediately file suit.

I wouldn't be surprised if the filing documents are already prepared as I type this.

Then we'll find out if this whole "lifetime appointments insulate a judge from elective politics" thingy that's routinely trotted out in support of them, is bullshit or not.

Yeah, I'm kinda simplifying things, with a dollop of idealism, but, man, if I'm a US SC Justice, I don't know what to hope for.

For example, and here's where the "idealism" thing is : If I'm a Justice, I do have to be concerned that the Court is granted adherence and respect by the public. If they hand the election to Trump, there is a very real concern that they're authority will be rejected. Remember, the SC has neither the power of the purse nor guns.

Of course, this is all old school thinking on my part and as we all know, it's a new world, and the old one ain't coming back.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the Justices are secretly hoping that Biden wins decisively.

His voter base has eroded. There are not 63 million "Deplorables" in the U.S. He got the votes of people that did not realize what a thoroughly awful man he is, or that he would be so profoundly incompetent and vitriolic. He got the votes of people who admired that Evil Reagan cultivated the image of a kindly gentleman. He got the votes of people who were horrified by Nixon and believed his resignation was necessary to salvage whatever shred of integrity and dignity remained.

These folks are disgusted that Dump has no integrity or dignity and is not a gentleman. They are also concerned that their Imminent retirements cannot be what they wanted because Dump has tanked the economy. These folks will vote for Biden.

His voter base has eroded. There are not 63 million "Deplorables" in the U.S. He got the votes of people that did not realize what a thoroughly awful man he is, or that he would be so profoundly incompetent and vitriolic. He got the votes of people who admired that Evil Reagan cultivated the image of a kindly gentleman. He got the votes of people who were horrified by Nixon and believed his resignation was necessary to salvage whatever shred of integrity and dignity remained.

These folks are disgusted that Dump has no integrity or dignity and is not a gentleman. They are also concerned that their Imminent retirements cannot be what they wanted because Dump has tanked the economy. These folks will vote for Biden.

Lady, can you stop double posting, for fuck's sake?

Oh, Dear. . . I didn't mean to post twice. I am having such trouble getting the hang of this interweb thing. Each night I pray to our Lord Jesus Christ that I live long enough to vote that Orange Bastard out of office. Then I'll leave you hateful queens to your unnatural lives and you won't have me to kick around anymore.

R230 Lady you are welcome to stay around. Just slap a few of these queens. They'll get with the program.

R230, stop beating yourself up, and r229 must be a newcomer too, so learn a few thing before you chastise anyone. DL has long since had bug where some posts appear twice (sometimes more) through no fault of the poster.

Hah, “lady,” I am assuming you were not being sarcastic about being a newcomer, but in hindsight, you may have been.

Trump will absolutely have a meltdown if/when he loses. Much more so than he would have if he lost in 2016. He's going to ratchet up the racism, sexism, conspiracy theories, threats, and lies exponentially to whip up his base into a frenzy. And the press will dutifully pretend there's a real controversy to Biden's win and cover the base's outrage the same way they covered the astroturf Tea Party nonsense.

I just don't understand people who refuse to vote because neither of the candidates is perfect or near perfectly what they want. I have been voting for 47 years and have yet to vote for a perfect candidate for any office. Voting is a choice between this or that, not disaster and perfection, although voting for Trump might be disaster.

Even if you are not inspired by a Presidential candidate, there are normally Governor, Senators, Congresspersons, plus many statewide and local offices wanting your vote. Republicans are a minority party in this country, more people identify as Democrats than Republicans but Republicans keep winning office because their people vote in mass, while too many Democrats sit on their God Damn asses waiting for their perfect candidate, failing to realize that their perfect candidate, someone else won't find inspiring enough to vote for.

Shit. If Biden carries Texas and/or Georgia I’ll run down the street naked on election night. And that’s in Chicagoland, In November. I don’t care if I get frostbite on my balls.

Georgia is possible but expect tons of Koch/Mercer money to flood those states with lies. Bloomberg better come through with his promise of a billion dollars. I know he reneged on it but he can change his mind. We will need big money.

Bloomberg did not renege, it is in the works. COVID-19 is saving Dump's fat orange ass. But for the impropriety of blowing up the incumbent with negative campaigning during a pandemic he would be getting slaughtered by scathing, completely true non-stop anti-Trump ads.

Count on Bezos, Gates and Soros adding to the coffers of anti-Trump pacs. All unlikely bedfellows but a classic case of "the enemy of my enemy..."

R235, I also don't understand it when you consider what the GOP has become. So many people really have no historical perspective. 40 years ago there were some good GOP candidates--even if you disagreed strongly on policy, there were many who were still generally decent people. The party has completely devolved into a craven corrupt bootlicking dogwhistling white billionaire's club.

R240 You kind of nailed it.

[quote]Isn't it funny how people who supposedly care about the "99%" are so angry at the prospects of a Biden president and have a "meh" response to a Trump presidency?

Yes, they're called "Sad Berners".

They're not funny at all, just sad.

Can't find the View thread. It was fun watching Meghan McCain practically shake with rage today as her attempts to identify herself with the lower middle class were completely destroyed by Joy and Sunny. The cherry was Whoopi going to break in the middle of her full blown meltdown.

And yeah, she tried to defend people who brought confederate flags and Swatstikas to these rallies, saying it was unfair to call them Neo Nazi's.

I'd say the Republican party is getting very desperate.

R243 I figured she would defend those people. She has gone over the edge. Was Michigan a part of the Confederacy? If not, why were those flags there?

I hoped they doubled over laughing at her attempts to identify herself with lower middle class people. Dumb bitch. She is the QUEEN of Bothsiders and Whataboutism.

R221, get the fuck out of here with that both sides shit. If you ever actually make it to America one day, you will see how wrong you are.

Until then, fuck off over to Facebook.

[quote]So, what does it mean to be conservative?

It means "I only think of myself," just as it always has meant.

Selfishness wil never go out of style.

[quote]And the press will dutifully pretend there's a real controversy to Biden's win and cover the base's outrage the same way they covered the astroturf Tea Party nonsense.

Absolutely agree with you and it's why I fucking hate the media.

R221 Won't get the good vodka with that lazy attempt at trolling.

R236, we expect photos and video of said event.

Young voters trending conservative? Not according to Civiqs: his support among 18-35 year-olds is only 30 percent. Among 35-49 year olds, his approval rating is 42 percent.

Beware of outlier polls and studies that were conducted with an agenda.

Oh, dear! Biden caught over and over again flat out lying and plagiarizing even in law school! He's been a corrupt lying POS since day one just like his corrupt lying son Robert a.k.a. "Hunter".

R252 Don't care. Yawn

R252 has opened my eyes! I'm voting for Trump!

Where's the gif of Jaida saying "Look over there"?

If Biden ends up being so bad we can remove him for the VP. How's that?

Meanwhile, NOTHING he does will change that fact I am voting Biden.

The classic Republican party pretty much died in the Bush 1 era. Since then it has steadily become more and more a criminal enterprise.

Hmm, I have r252 blocked already. Judging by the comments above, I was right to do so.

There is not a single fucking thing Biden could have done which will ever be as bad as the moment Donald Trump was born.

Biden will be great. He will surround himself with the best of the best. A good POTUS is not one who does all the work. It's one who knows how to hire the best people and give them the freedom to get the job done. A POTUS is like a CEO. Not really much to do but dictate policy, sit back and make sure the subordinates are doing what they were hired to do.

Biden will never win the EC. Trump is not losing voters but its cute you all think so. Keep thinking like this! Its 2016 all over again!

R261 Suuuuuuuuure. Mmmmhhmmmmmmm

r261 Since you're psychic - what are next week's winning lottery numbers?

Yes! Just like this! R262. Not psychic r263 just rational.

Harry Enten:

[quote]Today is a reminder that the correlation between press mentions and prez polling was negative in 2016. The more Trump gets mentioned in the press the worse it likely is for his 2020 re-election chances.

TX is being shady about COVID-19 death reporting. There has been delays and other such nonsense. They will do anything to try to cover this up. Now the WH resident is saying they don't agree with the methodology on how those deaths are recorded and wants it looked at.

It is about to put us on a collision course with catastrophe. Anything to get his economy back. Hint: It ain't coming back anytime soon even if he reopened everything tomorrow.

Yup, r266 just as plenty of us predicted when Georgia insisted on opening 3 weeks ago.

They'll lie and threaten those who want to truthfully, accurately report numbers.

I salivate at the thought of Trump losing and having to go back to his business of people not being able to pay rent or coming to his properties and losing whatever wealth he had.

Also possibly getting charged with various crimes.

Please come true.

R261's brilliance from another thread.

"Face it, Biden is uninspiring in every way. He also has a China problem, a Ukraine problem that is being investigated and is known as being handsy with women, AND young girls. AND he has a sexual asssult claim pending."

Because ya know, these idiots have never met Trump. Trump and his family are all as clean as a baby's ass...after being fed Indian and Mexican food followed by an ex-lax.

R269 I ignore it. They are desperate and scared.

YES! YES! YES, WE CAN AGAIN!!!!

Obama's Trump attacks electrify Democrats, anger GOP

BY AMIE PARNES - 05/18/20 05:42 PM EDT

Former President Obama is flexing his political muscle against President Trump, signaling he’s all-in on helping presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and ending the Trump presidency.

In recent days, Obama, with his legacy on the line, has made a point of taking on Trump head-on after remaining quiet throughout much of the president’s time in office.

“It basically amounts to more than three years of staying quiet and remaining on the sidelines building to this moment of ‘Hey Trump, we’re over your bullshit,' ” an Obama administration aide said of the former president’s recent actions. “He’s had a lot on his mind and it’s finally all coming out.”

Obama’s one-word tweet “vote,” responding to Trump’s criticism of the “unmasking” of former national security adviser Michael Flynn from intelligence papers, went viral last week, exciting Democrats who have longed for his voice to rail against the current president.

He followed it up over the weekend with two virtual commencement addresses notable in their criticism of the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Obama said the coronavirus had “fully, finally, torn back the curtain on the idea that so many of the folks in charge know what they’re doing."

“A lot of them aren’t even pretending to be in charge,” he added.

A few days earlier, on a call to 3,000 members of the Obama Alumni Association, the former president said that the current administration’s response to the global crisis has been “an absolute chaotic disaster.”

Democratic strategists say Obama’s public remarks are helpful to Biden and the party because they believe they draw a favorable contrast between his administration and Trump’s White House.

“One key area where Obama creates a clear contrast with Trump is competency,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. “If you look at polling, competency is a vulnerability for Trump so the more that Obama can remind voters of that contrast, it's a net positive for Democrats and for the Biden campaign.”

Added one Obama ally: “You couldn’t have more of a dichotomy between these two presidents. Obama is someone who believes the office is bigger than the person. Trump is all about himself.”

At the same time, Trump seems happy to have Obama as his main foil in the general election.

He knows this election isn’t just a referendum on his own White House but with Biden on the ballot, it is also about Obama’s administration.

Trump has punched back at the Obama slights, mentioning his predecessor on Twitter nearly two dozen times this month, including three times this week where he simply tweeted “Obamagate,” a reference to Flynn’s unmasking and the theory promulgated on the right that information about it was leaked to the media to hurt the new president’s incoming administration in its first months in office.

“The Obama Administration is turning out to be one of the most corrupt and incompetent in U.S. history,” Trump wrote in one tweet over the weekend. “Remember, he and Sleepy Joe are the reasons I am in the White House!!!”

Obama’s barbs have got the attention of Republicans.

Karl Rove, who served as a senior strategist to former President George W. Bush, on Monday called Obama’s speech “a political drive-by shooting.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has also blasted Obama, saying the former president should continue to follow the precedent of past presidents but not criticizing his successor.

Obama “should have kept his mouth shut,” McConnell told Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, during a campaign livestream last week, adding that “it’s a little bit classless.”

McConnell is also up for reelection this year.

Obama allies point out that his attacks could be a lot worse. But they’re not, intentionally so. In the graduation addresses, for example, one ally noted, the former president never used Trump’s name.

[quote]Trump is not losing voters but its cute you all think so.

It's cute that you've been asleep for the past three and a half years and haven't seen Republicans losing the suburbs, losing the white female vote, and more recently, even struggling to hold on to the older vote.

But hey, you just go right on sleeping and we'll see you in November.

Trump, of course, isn't capable of performing the valorous act of "going down swinging".

He'll drop out of the race if he believes he'll lose decisively to Biden and all the cheating the Repugs and Russians can muster can't help him. He'll take his chances with the state of N Y.

That Supreme Court ruling on whether Deutsche Bank must obey the subpeonas of New York and the House should pretty much indicate how Trump will proceed.

“He never takes the bait,” the Obama ally said. “He’s not doing media interviews, he’s not penning op-eds to go after Trump."

“And he never really engaged until after the primary was over, as he said,” the ally added.

Democratic strategists say no one can engage better than Obama can.

Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist who has been critical of Trump, said Obama’s recent comments show the intense role he’ll play in seeking to get Biden elected president.

“This will make a huge difference,” Del Percio said. “We shouldn’t forget that there is a road map for Obama to follow when it comes to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania."

“If he just flips the districts that Clinton lost in 2016, and he won in 2012 that alone would be devastating to the Trump campaign,” she added.

At the same time, Del Percio warned that the 2020 race shouldn’t be about Obama and Trump and that the former president shouldn’t be overexposed.

“Biden must look presidential in his own right and that he is his own man,” she said.

[quote]anger GOP

If he were panicking, he would put on his monotone "Presidential voice". He's not panicking and his team always likes to act like they are running scared. Fake news, the President thinks he will be able to take Biden down.

Obama spent a decade with that orange pile of shit being given a platform to spread conspiracy theories and attacking everything about Obama. The idea that Obama hasn't earned the right to call out this garbage human's HORRIBLE job as president and taking NO responsibility like a fucking child unless it's something positive -like hopping onto an economy Obama built after Dubya fucked it- is preposterous.

[quote] At the same time, Del Percio warned that the 2020 race shouldn’t be about Obama and Trump and that the former president shouldn’t be overexposed.

Shouldn't be about Obama? Trump has made his entire presidency about Obama.

[quote] If he were panicking, he would put on his monotone "Presidential voice".

You mean his "read from a teleprompter voice." Not applicable here.

[quote] Fake news, the President thinks he will be able to take Biden down.

Yeah, like you know.

Well, on TV today he spoke in the monotone 'presidential' voice when saying he's taking Hydoxywhatever. He also expanded his enemies list to include the VA and the FDA, who apparently out to get him! Evil VA and FDA! He's gone stark raving mad. Get a net.

Enjoy watching the Arizona Princess FUMING over Obama.

Look at her reaction as Joy's speaking. The smoke is practically coming out of her nostrils.

He's definitely losing ground with people. The only Trump supporters left who I know are a few anti-vaxx moms, a couple of anti-government gun nuts, an alcoholic on his fourth marriage and a rabid pro-lifer with seven kids. (None of them are friends, I only know them from work.) There used to be more of them and they were proud about it.

Not any more, though. The ones left are either all about 'not politisizing this terrible occurrence' or unbearably over-the-top with their lies about Biden (deep fakes, photo shop, stories pulled out of their flaccid assholes, etc.) to try and make Joe seem as bad as Anusmouth. AS IF!

"It's," not "Its."

When Whoppi is on it r280, she gets to the root of the problem. Meghan really didn't have shit to say. If her daddy gave that speech, she would cut a bitch calling out his record and ask people to focus on his words. When McCaine voted no on Trump Care, Democrats didn't call out his failed policy positions, they just focused on the topic at hand.

I wish someone would ask her, as the Republican, when Trump will come to this magical center she keeps talking about? He's the President, let his extend the olive branch.

For someone who hasn't earned a fucking thing in her life and her entire career is based on dad busting a nut in mom, McCain has so much fucking nerve. How does she have the guts to act like her opinion means anything considering she has had to actually compete for anything in her life. Her life was handed to her and she has the nerev to "fume." Fuck her and every other nepotism hire who has the audacity to be a "conservative."

R283 Ha! They NEVER want their side to come to the middle. Ever. They'd call ultra conservative Ernst a moderate.

New poll they just showed on MSNBC showed him under 0.4 with 55 year olds and up and down 1.3 with 65 and up. He won 65 and up in 2016 by over 13 points. He won 55 and up with about 7-8 points. They're fucked if they lose the olds.

hasn't* had to actually...

Everyone saying that states aren't reporting need to understand that it's a very difficult thing to hide between the media reporting on excess deaths and somehow thinking that do doctors and nurses aren't going to report an uptick in hospitalizations.

Rahm Emanuel had it right on Stephanopoulos his weekend -- Democrats need to move on from a message of resistance to rebuilding.

I dont understand Meghan's issue. Her dad was treated like shit by Lumpy so I dont understand why she is so defensive. What culture war is she talking about?

[quote]so I dont understand why she is so defensive.

Were it not for the NEGRO she would have been First Daughter.

R288 She has to parrot conservative bullshit nonstop. Apparently, you can't have your own opinion on the show if you're conservative. Or you're not able to form your own opinion. They all spew the same talking points and boy does she have them down. She used to be level headed. She met her Nazi husband and apparently went hard core conservative. She's a walking talking trope of everything she deems to be conservative- she drinks beer, eats wings, shoots, likes things rustic and so on. Watch the show one week because she loves reminding people of this. She is the heartland WE are the coasts. She is a classic division troll and whatabout troll.

I guess she is also mad Obama whipped her daddy good in that election. She hates Obama and Hillary.

[quote] she drinks beer, eats wings

But she's so svelte...

Wow, apparently that cow was trending for essentially blaming Obama for Trump and just being a vile, Neo-Nazi cunt. What a disgusting pig she is.

I love the responses to her garbage:

[quote]ABlackWomanWhoDontGiveAF*ck@battletested5 John McCain before he died asked Barack Obama to speak at his funeral. So to watch his daughter bash the man that her father wanted to speak over his casket says more that Meghan McCain is just a horrible fucking person

She said Obama started dividing the country. She has said that before. Presidents Clinton and Obama were savagely attacked by the right wing from day one. W was not. We actually came together to support him after 9/11 (I was in the 10% that didn't). And he threw that away by lying us into a devastating war. A war for which every service member who had to fight should be beyond pissed off. There should have been hell to pay.

And on a different note.... Why is Trump panicking? Perhaps because he was just informed that he is "morbidly obese".

Nancy Pelosi fears for 'morbidly obese' Trump after hydroxychloroquine admission

The US House Speaker says president should not be taking a drug that has not been approved to ward off coronavirus

Thieves in Florida will change the vote there to give it too Republicans every time. They do it in every vote.

Two more reasons for Trump to panic...

#1) A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 50% to 43%.

And #2) A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 51% to 39%.

I think Republicans should just write off Virginia for the foreseeable future. It's not even a swing state anymore. It's blue.

If that Arizona poll is accurate, Arizona is trending super blue as well. Biden is leading in all age groups and in all racial groups including “whites”.

Also, AZ has a very appealing Sen candidate Mark Kelly.

[quote] Also, AZ has a very appealing Sen candidate Mark Kelly.

Before I can declare him very appealing I have to know how is he on a skateboard.

[quote]It's not even a swing state anymore. It's blue.

Yeah, it is. As I’ve said before, the electoral map is shifting. VA used to be fairly reliably Republican. Iowa and Ohio used to be swing states. None of that is true anymore.

[quote] Well, on TV today he spoke in the monotone 'presidential' voice when saying he's taking Hydoxywhatever.

That was just his 10mg valium and whatever other narcotic he's addicted to kicking in.

R303 How is Iowa not considered a swing state? Obama won it twice. 3 of its 4 congressional districts are in the hands of Dems. Its 4th one the Dem came very close. Didn't Clinton win it twice? I'm too lazy atm to look it up.

Obama won OH twice as well as Clinton. It was super close with Kerry and Gore. Yes, it is trending away for sure but we need more election cycles to know for sure.

I think Ohio should just be considered a red state from now on. With the flight of all of the union and manufacturing jobs, now its just a hollowed out shithole red state with a bunch of pissed off Trumpers (and some of their pissed off-ness over the loss of manufacturing and unfair trade is justified, they are just fools though to think Trump will help them with that).

[quote]If that Arizona poll is accurate, Arizona is trending super blue as well. Biden is leading in all age groups and in all racial groups including “whites”.

The numbers in Arizona have been very consistent so far this year -- Biden has been ahead of Trump in every AZ poll for months now.

If that holds up until November, Biden could become the first Democrat to win AZ since Bill Clinton in 1996.

The Economic Poll Trump Licker is getting ahead of himself today.

I always hate polls (good or bad - just don't trust them), but I love PollTroll

R305, Clinton, Gore, and Kerry were a very long time ago. Things have shifted tremendously since then. They've shifted heavily since 2012. I don’t need more election cycles to call it. OH and IA are now red states as much as CO and VA are now blue states.

I think the poster above has it right... if all things are equal in 2020 as they were in 2016, except Biden also wins PA, WI, and MI, he wins the election. Forget NC, FL, AZ, and IA (nice to think they will turn blue in November but)... the election will be won in the Midwest.

VA and CO have data to show they are blue states. IA and OH not yet though they are trending that way.

Not sure about Iowa yet. Three out of four congresspeople are Democrats, and Steve King’s race was close. And Republican Senator Joni Ernst last ran in 2014, which was a long time ago. Yes, Grassley ran in 2016 but he’s a familiar fossil in Iowa and also rode Dump’s coattails. I’m holding out hope that there’s a chance yet for Iowa to grow a brain.

Nearly 100K Americans dead in less than 3 months

Over 30 million Americans are unemployed

The USA debt and deficit have skyrocketed. On and on...

Who is in charge?

Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

Here's a question: Who will get most of the blame for the confusion?

I would love to think that this comedian speaks for a fair share of moderate midwest voters who are looking at this situation and thinking somebody...anybody...needs to make a decision and ultimately blames the Right.

I saw someone else today theorize that Twitler 45 is playing the Deadbeat Dad Syndrome wherein the governors are like mom being responsible and authoritarian which leaves the deadbeat dad to show up whenever he feels like it and be the fun, cool parent. I could see it going either way.

I’m still technically better off than I was 4 years ago and I have more money. My country is worse off since Trump came into office now that 100k of my fellow citizens have died thanks to the recklessness of China (yes I blame those assholes) and Trump. I can’t wait to cast my vote for Biden, but I’m scared as hell of the outcome.

Ooops. Sorry about the bad link at R315.

R315 this is another reason why Biden was the best option in the end. He’s not a sitting senator or governor so he can also shift in the wind with zero accountability. Biden can sit on the sidelines and Trump can’t call him out because he has an impeccable record of epidemic management. Not counting my chickens befor they hatch, but Biden can be whatever is needed until November while even Trump lost his 2016 freedom now that he has a government record.

Anyone claiming Ohio is red is clearly unaware of the history there of egregious election fraud by officials, throwing Medicare/Medicaid recipients off the voter rolls, what happened there during the last primary, etc.

It’s not *actually* red. Remember, this is the state of Ken Blackwell and Jim Jordan.

Even with the economy before, an economy he inherited and goosed with deficit spending us to a trillion dollar deficit (in good times, mind you), he was going to lose. Nobody wants 4 more years of this. No one. Dems have been excellent economic stewards. The GOP not so much.

Lots of wishful thinking here.

Interesting UK article

R321 Explain.

R323, don’t bother. R321 is a well know Dump troll, you won’t get anything useful out of their explanation, only more drivel. He/she is blocked by most people on this board because they don’t offer a smidgen of thought to their posts.

I was wondering why I couldn't see "321" - already had the cockroach on ignore.

R324 I figured. Thank you!

Yep another one here who already has 321 on blocked.

If more then a tiny handful of users had a poster on block wouldn't that gray him out to others. At datalonge's default 50% setting I see him fine.

R328, I think because we already have him on ignore, it means we're not actually "F&F" his posts.

R329 is right, if you don’t see the post, you can’t hit the F/F button.

EMERGENCY!!!! HIDE THE WHITE HOUSE CHINA!!!!

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

Updated 2:12 PM ET, Wed May 20, 2020

New York (CNN Business)The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

Ohio, Missouri could flip to Democrats

The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.

"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said.

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

"We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote," the report said.

Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump's upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980.

Is it too early to predict the election?

Still, models based on economic trends are not political crystal balls. And they have no track record of predicting elections during pandemics.

"Traditional models work in normal times. But we're not in normal times right now," said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.

The election is still six months away. And the past six months show how much the world can change in that period of time. No one was predicting a 20% unemployment or a 40% collapse in GDP six months ago. Now, those are the consensus projections.

If the election were held today, Valliere said, former Vice President Joe Biden would probably win. But the next six months will give Trump time to reframe the debate around Biden and pin the blame for the pandemic on China.

"No one can go negative like Donald Trump," Valliere said.

Indeed, Oxford Economics said that its models have "inherent limitations," including the fact that they exclude noneconomic factors such as a candidate's agenda or likeability.

Betting odds favor Trump

More importantly, the models don't account for potential shifts in the pandemic. And this election may be a referendum on Trump's handling of the crisis.

"If new infections really pick up, people will conclude Trump opened the country too soon," said Valliere. "But if new infections drop, Trump will get some credit."

Another wildcard is how the pandemic impacts voter turnout. Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia, Oxford Economics said. But weak Democratic turnout, along with a sharper economic recovery, could give Trump a "razor-thin" electoral college victory, the report said.

There are other signs that Trump should not be counted out in November. Users on PredictIt, a prediction platform, give Trump a 50% chance of winning reelection. That's up from 45% in mid-March.

The betting odds also solidly favor Trump, according to an average compiled by RealClearPolitics.

Recessions hurt incumbents

Still, it's clear that some battleground states are hurting very badly right now.

For instance, more than one-quarter of the workforces of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada filed initial unemployment claims between March 14 and May 9. In Ohio, a bellwether state during presidential elections, 20% of the workforce has filed initial unemployment claims over that span.

"Every incumbent president facing a recession in the lead-up to reelection has lost," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.

But the key will be whether voters feel that the economy is back on the right track, with unemployment falling sharply and GDP rapidly recovery.

"The real debate is what does the economy look like on Election Day?" said Mills. "Will the country have gotten past the worst of Covid-19 and the worst of the economic shock?"

No one can answer those questions with certainty right now.

Tax hikes on the horizon?

The election uncertainty could pose a risk to the stock market, which has spiked since late March on hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery and in response to massive stimulus from the federal government.

Wall Street doesn't want to see the pro-business elements of the Trump agenda disappear. Although investors don't love Trump's trade wars, his corporate tax cuts boosted S&P 500 earnings and set off a bonanza of share buybacks. Trump's regulatory rollbacks and spending hikes have also helped lift stocks.

Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 is still standing nearly 40% above where it was prior to Trump's election.

If Biden wins the White House -- and the Senate flips to Democrats -- investors will be worry about tax hikes on companies and the rich, new restrictions on oil and gas production and increased financial regulation.

"In almost every area where Trump has undone former President Obama's legacy," analysts at Eurasia Group warned in a report on Tuesday. "A Biden presidency would try and restore the policy positions of the Obama administration and in most cases go beyond it."

Even more reason for Trump to panic...right leaning pollster, Rasmussen, has Biden ahead by 5.

Pre-crisis models say he would win 55% of the popular vote? Ummmm no. He is a deeply unpopular person before AND after the collapse.

Throw out every single model ever made. This man is nothing like a typical president. Nothing is typical now, pre or post pandemic.

This all is nothing like the past. A majority does not want 4 more years of this shit. A majority does not want to see this man for 4 more years.

I love the talk in the article about the stock market and how worried they would be about tax increases on the rich and us returning to an Obama era economic picture. First of all, both Clinton AND Obama had huge stock market successes- more than W and now more than this asshat. I am so fucking sick of the elite bitching and moaning about taxes. They have 90% of the wealth and it is STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR THEM!

I don't care about anything except getting out and voting. All of us.

R333, here's the link to the new Rasmussen poll showing Biden ahead by 5 points with Likely Voters -

This poll also gives Biden the edge in who would best handle the post-coronavirus economy:

I’m sick of Corona virus influenced pills. During a bungled pandemic Biden only beats Trump by 5-6 points nationally? That doesn’t leave much room for error. The President’s number have remained somewhat steady and he’s not even at his lowest approval rate. It won’t take much to create the improved economy narrative since the economy is currently in a ditch. Businesses will reopen and the government will refuse to go back into lockdown mode at least until voting is over. I’m still concerned about a squeaker for Trump in Nov. PA and WI are a real concern.

If Biden fingers wins in November, the orange fucker could resign and get president-for-a-day Pence to pardon him. He'll try anything to get away scott free.

Hopefully the NY State AG is ready with grand jury subpoenas for the whole grifter family come January.

[quote]During a bungled pandemic Biden only beats Trump by 5-6 points nationally?

That’s the best any candidate can hope for in a political climate as polarized as ours. Some people don’t seem to understand that. Each party’s candidate is guaranteed to get at least 40-45% of the vote, regardless of who the nominees are. That’s just the way it is.

I fucking hate polls so much even when they favor Dems, but the one positive is that it angers Trump and I hope it raises his blood pressure and hopefully hastens his death.

Thanks r324/polltroll. That's interesting on the economy coming from Rasmussen.

Trump is unraveling so quickly and keeps saying the silent parts out loud. He's the Hindenburg of re-election campaigns.

I see him self-destructing later this summer.

As Harry Enten wrote today, Trump still has a chance of winning.

But at the moment, Biden leads nationally and in the swing states. Therefore, Biden is the favorite for now.

All that matters is election day. This assclown wasn't favored to win with a good economy. Why? Nobody wants 4 more years of his antics. A full 50% (at least) doesn't like him or think he is doing a good job. He's bankrupted the farmers and is spending on the credit card to pump up the economy. In the old days, the GOP would scream that would cause inflation. Now they only scream that when we want to bail out WORKERS instead of giving everything to the elite.

Harry Enten, May 20, 2020:

[quote]The bottom line is six months is a lifetime in politics, but you'd rather be in Biden's position than Trump's.

r337 Biden didn't "finger" anybody, that fat fucking bitch Tarable Reade made up the whole fucking thing, obviously. The cunt has a string of 'friends' in California that she fucked over, no one believes the pig.

Lets say for shits and giggles Tara is telling the truth (she isn't). Ok, we will investigate it after the election and if he is guilty, we will remove him for the VP. See, easy peasy.

Today's new Michigan Approval Ratings:

64% Approval for Governor Whitmer

43% Approval for Donald Trump

I had to skip over all the "baseball stat" analysis on this thread. Don't do this to yourselves. Wait until October 1st and then look at the polls. Unless you are working for a campaign, then focus on your area.

Whatever you do, do not count on Florida. Obama carried it because the black population got out in huge numbers. I was there, stood line 8 hours in 2008 and 3 hours in 2012. Unless Obama personally campaigns here, there won't be another huge African-American turnout.

R348 FL is always close even in non prez years. Like less than a % close.

That put a smile on my face, r347/polltroll. It must really eat at him knowing the woman he hates slightly less than Pelosi is doing way better in the polls than he is.

That guy in the background of R347’s link is one hot daddy.

Harry Enten, May 20, 2016:

The bottom line is six months is a lifetime in politics, but you'd rather be in Hillary's position than Trump's.

r351 checking in with the DL priorities.

(Not being sarcastic. I believe it is a priority and I agree: hot daddy).

No one is in a rush to take up non essential activities. The push to reopen everything is not going to work. We all know the GOP would rather have us dead than getting a govt paycheck for a few months to keep us safe.

[quote]The push to reopen everything is not going to work. We all know the GOP would rather have us dead than getting a govt paycheck for a few months to keep us safe.

According to Rachel tonight, things are being reopened only to close down again and Republicans are lying and/or hiding data about this.

Harry Enton didn't know Russia was going to interfere in the election, that James Comey would slander Hillary a week before the election, or that 50k voters in PA, WI, and MI wouldn't show up to vote because they were over-confident in her election.

Since he was 'elected' he has crashed the economy, stood by as a pandemic ravaged the nation, and sunk us into a great depression.

[quote] Since he was 'elected' he has crashed the economy, stood by as a pandemic ravaged the nation, and sunk us into a great depression.

I understand everything in this quote ^^^ to be fact. I remain convinced that at best, 25.7% of US adults regard everything in the quote as fact, and know many crimes, incidents of corruption and treason, and coverups happened since January 20, 2017. My question is: are enough people who sat out the election in 2016 aware of the damage their non-participation contributed to? Are there more then ten IQ45 voters in the nation who acknowledge the mess the US is in and understand what's demanded of them to help rescue their country?

They didnt win the first time and their not panicking.

Rewatch the footage of their reaction to their 2016 win, they could not believe they "won" back in 2016.

They stayed in it to rip the country off, completely. The country is in tatters and broke and they intend to retire with their spoils.

They didnt win the first time and their not panicking.

Rewatch the footage of their reaction to their 2016 win, they could not believe they "won" back in 2016.

They stayed in it to rip the country off, completely. The country is in tatters and broke and they intend to retire with their spoils.

R352 is so fucking clueless.

Trump attacks Michigan endlessly but needs it to win. Does attacking Whitmer help him with Deplorables? Because he attacks the state too.

I don’t see how endlessly proclaiming “Michigan sucks” is going to make voters there turn out in droves for him.

R356 thru R359 are all on the same wave length as I am in agreement. You can't pay attention to the polls - NOT because the polls were wrong the first time - they weren't - and they won't necessarily be wrong this time. (I keep saying this), assuming we have an election, (and we might not for all sorts of reasons), the difference has to be paper balloting. Mail-ins! That's what Trump is most panicked about. Even if you live next door to a polling place, everybody should mail in their ballots.

The economy is poised for several months in the toilet. Formerly reliable blocks of Trump voters are cooling on his antics. Their internal polls are bad. Still, with Russia’s help, they are going to cheat again.

We know it. They know we know.

But, I suspect the cheating mechanisms can only deliver so much. Swing states have to be close enough for their “tweaks” to work.

The prospective difficulty of suppressing mail-in ballots is why Trump has even gone further off the rails, especially as to Michigan and Nevada.

That’s why the heightened panic.

Bump

You're welcome R351 & R353.

And he's actually improved with age. Never would've cared for him when he looked like this:

r361 Today he stood in a Ford plant in Michigan and told them he'd owned a lot of Fords. Then he changed it to he almost bought a Ford once, looked at the price and said forget it. He also didn't wear a mask while all Ford executives did.

I think he's been told Michigan is already gone.

That's ok, R367! Trumpers LOVE IT when Dumpy shits all over them like that! Who knew so many Republicans were into scat?

[quote]I think he's been told Michigan is already gone.

But, is this all peaking too soon? The election is 6 months away and I don't foresee Trump resigning. A LOT can happen from now until then

Of course he shouldn't count on it, but he sees a state that has slipped away and cannot stop himself from shitting all over them and making things worse. He's going to try to bully them until the polls change.

Harry Enten:

[quote]3 polls from MI came out today, and the one from the conservative leaning group was the best for Biden.

Trump advisers warn McSally is in trouble

05/21/2020

Worries about an Arizona Senate seat surface at the White House as polls show Trump losing to Joe Biden in the state, too.

Encouraging news at R372, Poll Troll!

Tonight's new FOX NEWS poll shows 8-point lead for Biden:

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Biden: 48%

Trump: 40%

[Interviews were conducted May 17-20, 2020 among a random national sample of 1,207 registered voters (RV).]

[quote] The economy is poised for several months in the toilet.

Perception lags reality.

The country had already pulled out of recession by 1992 but Clinton relentlessly hammered away at GHW Bush on the economy and Bush was never able to change the narrative. No way are all the jobs we've lost will return in 5 months even if the virus were to vanish overnight.

Plus Trump and McConnell are dug in against extending jobless benefits past July. By November people will be really hurting, It's Herbert Hoover redux. The White House couldn't be more tone deaf.

I love using this a guide to see which states can get us the win and which states wont.

[quote]It's Herbert Hoover redux. The White House couldn't be more tone deaf.

Isn't it interesting how the idiom always says look back at history or it will repeat itself and sure enough it most certainly is. Florida has always been the problem voting state since the early 1900s. Why aren't we learning?

r377 we've learned, but corruption is hard to beat when it's state wide and constitution binds the Fed's hands. Civil Rights only worked thanks to some very liberal interpretation of the Interstate Commerce Clause. I'd blame the Founder but they did that best the could with the situation at hand. We have to tools to fix this through s Constitutional amendment, but if you give the Fed more oversight on voting, then the next Trump would come in and tell states like MI not to mail vote by mail applications or tell Nevada what to do as well. It's very hard for a government to hold bad actors in power. In the end, only the voters in FL and US can save ourselves from this corruption.

Look for a huge handout to the people in Oct, announced by Trump on national tv. Standing behind him, the senators in danger of losing.

R376 The Russians love using it as a guide as well! It's how they'll help Trump win again unless we're able to do something. (78,000 votes across 3 borderline Electoral States where Trump "won" by less than .5%).

[quote] But, is this all peaking too soon?

Why are you assuming we are anywhere near the peak?

From the FOX poll:

Who do you trust on:

Economy:

Trump 45%

Biden 42%

*

China:

Biden 43%

Trump 37%

*

Coronavirus:

Biden 46%

Trump 37%

*

Healthcare:

Biden 50%

Trump 33%

From the FOX poll:

Most enthusiastic voters: Biden +12

Independents: Biden +13

65 or older: Biden +17

On China: Biden +6

On economy: Trump +3

On Coronavirus: Biden +9

On healthcare: Biden +17

Who hate both: Biden +29

No way is Texas going blue, it's only slightly more likely than California going red.

The Datalounge is well-aware of my position on Florida.

It really is a disgrace when you look at that electoral bullshit knowing Clinton got 3 MILLION more votes.

I can't believe Biden is up so much with seniors!

I guess they don't like the "you should die for for the economy" line fat Donnie and the rethugs have been spewing.

Who knew?

R383, that poll suggests that democrats have work to do reminding the public that the economy has nothing to do with the president.

The economy would be much better without the tarrifs, for example.

has nothing to do with THIS president who gave tax breaks to the wealthy while working class wages are stagnant.

The unemployment was low because everyone was working 2 jobs.

[quote]I can't believe Biden is up so much with seniors!

Yes, Biden is leading with seniors by double digits in both Quinnipiac and Fox this week.

What's key for Biden now is to see if he can maintain that lead with seniors until November.

[quote] I’m sick of Corona virus influenced pills.

Hydroxychloroquine for everyone!

New poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds Biden ahead in 6 swing states:

ARIZONA

Biden - 45%

Trump - 41%

*

NORTH CAROLINA

Biden - 45%

Trump - 43%

*

FLORIDA

Biden - 45%

Trump - 43%

*

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden - 48%

Trump - 39%

*

MICHIGAN

Biden - 47%

Trump - 39%

*

WISCONSIN

Biden - 48%

Trump - 38%

Behind Trump’s demand to reopen churches: Slipping poll numbers and alarm inside his campaign

05/22/2020

Trump was counting on widening support from white religious voters this fall. The pandemic is sending his numbers the other way.

Biden will have no trouble taking back PA and Michigan. After that, terrifyingly, it's a coinflip at best. Forget what the polls look like in Arizona, Texas, Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida. If i had to put money down, I'd say the most likely scenario is that Trump wins all of those if it's anything resembling a close race. Pretty much the entire thing in a close race will come down to Wisconsin and either would be lucky to squeak out a 1 point win.

National polls won't tell you much. Trump can lose by 5 million votes and still win the electoral college easily. He can lose by 7 million votes and still win the electoral college.

Please, please, don't let us talk ourselves into overconfidence AGAIN.

R395 Uhhh no

[quote] National polls won't tell you much. Trump can lose by 5 million votes and still win the electoral college easily. He can lose by 7 million votes and still win the electoral college.

Utter nonsense. You pulled those numbers completely out of thin air.

Take it from someone who lives in Arizona, unless something drastic happens, Arizona is going blue. Mark Kelly is leading McSally by 13 points and has raised twice what she has. Biden will ride Kelly's coattails instead of the other way around.

Biden's handlers just need to keep him quiet and on script.

Take it from someone who lives in Arizona, unless something drastic happens, Arizona is going blue. Mark Kelly is leading McSally by 13 points and has raised twice what she has. Biden will ride Kelly's coattails instead of the other way around.

Biden's handlers just need to keep him quiet and on script.

Yeah, I really do think AZ will go blue. MI and PA, too. WI is a maybe. FL is a maybe. NC is a bit less of a maybe.

[quote] R395: Biden will have no trouble taking back PA and Michigan.

Add Arizona to Hillary’s vote and Biden takes the election. That’s before all the other battleground states.

I’m reading now that Biden may get over 400 EC votes.

I don't want Biden to just win, I want him to give Trump the worse loss in presidential history or at least in Mondale territory.

There is literally no chance of that happening with the kind of electorate we have now.

Unfortunate, R404. I want Trump's blood vessels bursting with rage.

And correction: worst*

There is more and more talk of Trump losing Texas. For real. Florida and Texas.

How glorious that would be, R406.

R406, please don't give me blue (state) balls if you aren't prepared to give me hand release in November!

After Trump loses the election I wonder how long it will be until he dies of a sudden heart attack and the entire Trump family dies in a plane crash.

R404 is correct that it is very difficult today for either party to win a massive sweep. The U.S. electorate has been polarized since the 1990's, and so the country-wide sweeps that were possible in prior decades aren't possible now.

Eg. In 1936, FDR won every state but 2, LBJ had a huge landslide of 40+ states in 1964, and Nixon & Reagan each won 49 states in 1972 & 1984 respectively.

But in today's times it is very difficult to win 40 or more states for either party because the country has been split since the 1990's. Winning 30 states is about as high as you can usually get today.

There’s no way in hell Biden (or anyone) will get 400 EVs, nor will he pick up TX (though he will probably come within 5 points, which is a huge deal). He may very well pick up FL, however.

I agree, R411. Neither Biden nor Trump can get to 400 EVs. George W. Bush didn't even hit 300 EVs in either of his elections. Trump managed just over 300 EVs in 2016 with 304. Obama got 332 in 2012 and even in his best election in 2008 got 365. Bill Clinton got as high as 379 in 1996 and 370 in 1992.

So given the polarized climate of the past 2 or 3 decades, it's unlikely anyone can exceed the Obama or Bill Clinton EV numbers in the near future.

The best case scenario for Biden is 318 or 333 (which is 1 EV more than Obama’s 2012 total), IMO.

r403 we all want that, but my anxiety ridden self is still nursing 2016 wounds when the party made a play for red states and left the blue wall unattended. I just want a win. Biden should get at least the 3 million plus popular vote total, a squeaker in the EC is fine.

WI feels like OH, and FL, a lost cause. Clinton was at 232. I think Biden will pick up the following states:

PA (20) - 252

MI (16) - 268

AZ (11) - 279 We win the WH.

Future predictions, the midwest has massive pockets of economic stagnation, a large white electorate, and a conservative culture that matches the south. Being republican will become an even bigger part of their culture which will screw Democrats. The midwest outside of IL and for a while MN will be lost. MI and PA (36 combined electoral votes) will replace OH as the ultimate battle ground states. The only way that Democrats can comfortably move forward is to keep sending CA transplants to TX, like they did with AZ. I'm joking about CA sending residents, but we have to make sure that TX (38 electoral votes) is in play and that we solidify power in AZ. Sadly, I see that Dems lost three valuable states within the blue wall. We may gain one, AZ, but everything feels stacked against us.

With the census, who knows how the numbers might shift. For instance, IL lost a lot of residents over the past decade. Many people moved to the sun belt so there is a glimmer of hope.

I haven’t seen one Biden sign in PA, not even in Philly. I’ve seen Trump, Warren and Bernie. Reminds me of Hillary in 2016.

Harry Enten on why Georgia is a swing state in 2020:

[quote]Georgia is a swing state in 2020. It has moved left (compared to nation) in each of last 3 elections. Black % of population has increased more than any other state since 2000. 2018 was best midterm for GA Dems in 20 years+. Oh & Biden/Trump polls are tight

[quote] Harry Enten on why Georgia is a swing state in 2020

Harry, stop posting your shit here. You’re never gonna happen.

R414, you need a Xanax. Yes, the Midwest is trending Republican. But AZ and parts of the South are trending Democratic. But the latter is happening more slowly than the former.

NC, GA, TX, and AZ will be the new Dem-leaning swing states in the coming years.

Why is Martha McSally so toxic? Apparently they are doing focus groups and nobody likes her - no matter if they are still on the fence with Trump, they just despise McSally.

Here's a great tweet from a Republican strategist: "McSally is one of the biggest dumpster fires of a candidate I have ever seen. Been doing this a while. She’s accelerating AZ demographic shift to a blue state by two election cycles."

[quote]Why is Martha McSally so toxic?

Because she's a nasty cunt.

I have no proof or insight, R420, but I wonder if some of these more heinous politicians like McSally are Koch/Mercer/DeVoss installations. They are hated largely because they are hateful humans, but also because they have zero connection to sensible values and everyday people's lives. They are not there to be public servants, but rather to further a specific agenda.

Was McSally the one who said she wanted McCain's seat as soon as he announced his diagnosis? If so, that was not a smart move.

Black voters need to turn up and it could make the difference.

I wonder if Kansas could go blue...they elected a democratic governor. Thankfully, she beat a hot, smug Republican. He is now trying to run for the Senate.

Kobach is a nasty reich-wing Neanderthal. (And definitely not hot in my book.) He is beatable. If the nominee had been the execrable Pompeo, we wouldn’t have had a chance. If Kobach get the nomination, we may have a shot.

r418 gurl, this will be me (wig and all) on election day. Hillary was also riding high in the summer. I'm not convinced that something else will happen. I just don't trust the FBI or a certain segment of voters to do the right thing.

If you want a hot piece of DC pond scum, I'd nominate Josh Hawley, Republican Senator from MO. He's young and attractive, we will be stuck with him for years to come.

yeah, not ready to go into hysterics or despair yet. Don't know why it is always up to Democrats to panic and lose in advance. Let's not do that.

I wonder if perhaps the goal is that there were inevitably be widespread vote-by-mail so that Trump can claim fraud, and then stir up some kind of armed insurrection.

r429 because Democrats know that our electorate requires perfection and love to motivate us to the polls. This round we are working on fear, which helped in 2018, but is never the best formula for our party. Republicans simply vote. They play the long game and trust in their Party to push their initiatives and they rarely give up on their party. When they don't like the leaders, they replace them. We went from Bush, to the Tea Party, to Trump in two decades, it's been a wild ride in the Republican Party. Meanwhile, those threats aren't enough to get Dems to vote. We even had a SC seat on the line in 2016, we could have gained a majority on the court and Democrats still stayed home! A once in a lifetime opportunity was squandered. Democrats are weak little bitches that put their feelings before reality. Thank God we have a few leaders like Pelosi who operate with an iron backbone because we've grown soft. This is why Dems get little to no respect from blue collar workers.

[quote]We even had a SC seat on the line in 2016, we could have gained a majority on the court and Democrats still stayed home! A once in a lifetime opportunity was squandered. Democrats are weak little bitches that put their feelings before reality. Thank God we have a few leaders like Pelosi who operate with an iron backbone because we've grown soft.

Right on! I 100% blame the Democrats for the loss of that seat. The death of Scalise was a gift that was squandered.

Scalia. Scalise should have perished.

Fear and hate, r431. Hatred is a profound human impulse, and a majority of people truly hate Trump. There are no guarantees in life, but I suspect that is a very good starting point. Hatred of Trump alone will drive a lot of people to the polls who didn't quite hate him in 2016. Now that hate is strong.

and yeah, I wish Obama had stopped all government and demanded that the Senate deal with his Supreme Court pick. That was a moment to not dick around, to call a halt to all normal functioning of government and give a big giant fuck you to Mitch McConnell.

r435 what does that even mean? According to my civics class, there was on way that the President could force the Senate to do anything that they didn't want to do. Can you explain how you expected Obama to force the Senate's hand?

r397 and r398 You are both really ignorant on the subject. If you're curious where the numbers come from, read about it.

Hillary won the electoral college by 3 million votes and lost in an electoral college blowout. Al Gore had 269, John Kerry got 262 EC votes, Hillary only got 227. You need 270 to win.

The idea Trump can lose by 5-7 million votes is an extrapolation based on the 2016 election. In the states where Trump is hated, the turnout will be up big over 2016. He will lose by millions more in states like NY, MA, CA, etc.

Meanwhile, Trump could win Arizona by 50,000 out of 2.5 million. Maybe he loses by 100,000 out of 2.5 million. Either way, next door in California, he will lose by 4-5 million votes. He lost by 4 million last time. The electorate is expanding over 2016 due to Trump hatred. That means more wasted popular votes for the Democrats. I'm not sure what is complicated about this.

Some people are just inherently negative, psychic vampires... "We'll never win, sob, sob, sob." Ignore them, look away and move on. They are not the ones that will be hitting the pavement, donating, or get involved in positive online activism.

Harry Enten's update today:

[quote]Biden's clearly outpacing Clinton's pace. 4 years ago this week, Clinton & Trump were tied. Clinton was at 39% in polls including Gary Johnson. Today, Biden's up 7. He's at 48%, which Clinton never hit in final 6 months. Much less room for Trump to move up

For those of you who can only point to polls to suggest a Biden win, have you given any thought to the individual states themselves? I know there's few real political handicappers here, so if you're interested in some extra information on how this stuff works:

1) If the state is "trending Blue", knock a few points off the poll for the Democrats if you want to know where they land on election day. Republicans are entrenched. They know how to get their voters out to vote. They have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure that Dems haven't been able to afford.

2) All Florida polls are bullshit. The Republican ground game is so strong in Florida that pollsters then try to correct for it. Meaning, Republicans are so good at getting registered Republicans to actually show up and vote that whatever the pollster's numbers show, they end up knocking a few points off of the Democrat's total. So if they show Biden up by 2, he's probably up by 5. For nearly 20 years, Republicans have been outperforming Florida polls in a way that is far beyond outperformance in any other state. Polls are about gathering raw data and then trying to figure out the composition of the electorate on election day. Republicans are so good at turning out their vote, there may not be a way for Dems to win there in 2020 in a competitive race. Biden might win Florida. But if If Biden wins Florida, he didn't need it in the first place because that means he already won Arizona and Wisconsin by 2-4 points and beat Trump by 10 points in PA and Michigan.

3) McSally is a bad example to read into. She's intelligent and a moderate. She's not a Trump-Republican but has sort of learned to play the role of one which makes her seem disingenuous. Trump fans still don't like her. The scary lesson of 2016 and 2018 is that for Republicans, the more they align with Trump the better their chances of winning. They need those voters. There's a reason the Republican senators who were seen as highly vulnerable won in 2016 while the only one who said she wouldn't vote for Trump got bounced. (She is almost definitely going to lose).

R440 McSally a moderate? Bwhahahahahahahhaha There are NO moderate Republicans in Congress except maybe a few in the House.

I see your point and I agree, R440. People need to always keep in mind that Trump still has a very good shot to win this thing. I'm listening to MSNBC now and James Carville has already determined a Trump defeat. Okaaay.... IMHO, Democrats get too caught up in the minutiae of Trump. Trump is a louse, period. He does something disgusting every minute. Accept that and let's move on.

But, where are the Democrats? Where is the visible work of building its ground game and getting the Biden message out? Biden made a mistake during a recent interview with Charlemagne The God of "Morning Breakfast," Sure, VP Biden apologized and that's all well and good, but where are his surrogates to reinforce that apology and message? Why weren't they on all of the Sunday morning talk shows touting Biden's record concerning African-Americans and his plan for that community that he released about 1-2 weeks ago? Anyone read it? Remember it?

Democrats believe (IMHO) if you say something once that people should get it and if not, go read about it on their web site. That's a BIG mistake. I'm seeing the same mistakes happening that Hillary Clinton made.

Constant repetition is the way to go. While I do believe that you have to manage a campaign strategically I also feel that you have to fight for every vote as if your life depended on it--or, give the impression of doing that. Polls and great ads are not enough and are meaningless at this point. The campaign must be out there on the ground and in the trenches repeating the message over and over again until it becomes second nature in most people's head.

I read the title as "Why Trump Is Pancaking".

Can you blame me?

He's lost his Mojo.

It died on a ventilator.

His Mojo will return when he forces venues to open so he can foment hate amongst the braindead.

The best thing Biden can do is hire Obama’s team. They built an incredible ground game, and they ran two almost flawless campaigns. Democrats have done it before—they can do it again.

Just don't let Robby Mook anywhere near you.

Ummm...that’s why I said Obama’s team, r447.

R446, you are so right. In 2012, Obama's team came to my very red, very rural Ohio county. Even though I have never knocked on doors for anything before, they got me to go out there week after week to make sure the few Democrats we have actually went to the polls. They left nothing to chance.

[quote]The best thing Biden can do is hire Obama’s team.

He has hired many of them.

Let's put into some perspective what Biden has to deal with and that can possibly cause him to lose this election;

-Bernie Sanders and the Bernie Bros; Let's not be fooled here and believe that Bernie and his minions are on board with Biden. Nope. Biden is just looked as a possible avenue to get what they want. If he doesn't submit they will willingly sabotage his campaign and allow a Trump re-election. Forget about the fact that Trump and his followers care nothing about H4A, climate change, increasing the minimum wage etc. The fact will be that they did not get their way

-The African Americans: They've gone radical. They are requiring major changes in the system and the release of all black men from prison

-Women; Biden had better pick a woman as VP and the tight one

-Latinos: Do something about immigration or they will be a no show at the polls

-White supremacy; Don't think that a lot of citizens are not ready for this demographic change. White privilege is not going to die easy.

-Russians/Trumps online internet army/a united Republican party; This is the easy stuff.

What does Trump have to put up with?

-Get rid of as many people of color as he can; Promises made. Promises delivered.

Wait, African Americans are demanding that all black men be released from prison?

I think they are pretty much on board with don't be a racist in the White House, like we have now.

The rest of your post is equally flawed.

[quote] -The African Americans: They've gone radical. They are requiring major changes in the system and the release of all black men from prison

What kind of lying bullshit have you been listening to, R450?

That's fucked up. Your whole post is fucked up. You should go back to troll school and study harder this time.

What does Fuckface von Clownstick have to deal with?

100-250,000 dead Americans on his watch by November 3, 2020. He's going down.

That was embellishment R451/R452. Take your panties out of the knot.

The point that my post was attempting to make is why are Democrats sooo hell-bent on having the perfect candidate and/or subjecting them to demands--especially at this point? Democrats are missing the big pictuire and that is to get rid of Trump. The demands can come later. But, you can't demand shit if you don't win and all it will mean is another 4 years of whining. WE WANT TO WIN! Let's make THAT the primary objective.

okay fine r453. That was a weird over the top post, but as long as you vote intelligently in November, that is fine.

Of course that's the prime objective. Are you on here arguing with yourself?

Snap out of it.

Of course that's the prime objective. Are you on here arguing with yourself?

Snap out of it.

McSally is so done in AZ. Lmao. 13 points down. Wasn’t voted in to begin with. She’s going to be humiliated in November. I can’t wait. She’s a cunt squared. Horrible woman.

R457, yes, McSally is definitely in serious trouble right now.

And the fact that the Democrats won a Senate seat in Arizona in 2018 for the first time in a quarter-century bodes well for picking up the other seat in 2020.

R458 not to mention Mark Kelley was basically made in a lab to be a Senator. He’s an incredible candidate and against anyone else I don’t think mcsally would be down 13 points.

North Carolina is the senate. Please donate to Cal Cunningham if you can! We will not win the senate without him, and he needs money. Moscow Mitch just put 20 million into the state because he sees the writing on the wall.

Steve Bullock is also in need of money. He is literally the only candidate who can flip this seat blue but he entered late so needs some cash. It’s an inexpensive market so your money goes a long way. Please donate! Ps he’s also a hot daddy!

Another candidate to PLEASE donate your money to if you have it is Ed Markey. Please don’t let another Kennedy win a senate seat as a stepping stone to the presidency. Ed Markey is a progressive senator in favor of the new green deal and many progressive policies. Joe Kennedy is a show horse trying to add buliten points to his resume for 2024. The choice couldn’t be anymore clear

Well, of course I would have preferred Jim J Bullock, but all right - I'll donate R461.

I think I already got Cunningham at least once but I'll hit him again.

This is where my vacation money is going. I was supposed to be spending it in Europe but noooooooo. So it's going to VP Biden and every other Democratic candidate who crosses my path. And the DNC, DCCC, DSCC and every other goddamned Democrat I can find.

And the animals because the animals need some cash too these days.

Donald fucking Trump - THE ENEMY OF JOY My bitterness overfloweth and I curse that schweinhund trump with every contribution.

Massholes never get embarrassed by voting for Kennedy’s do they. So sad.

Bullock was ahead in a recent Montana poll, so he's off to a good start, given his late entry.

Cunningham is in a tight race with Tillis in a new North Carolina poll.

R464 polltroll, how irrelevant are polls this far out? Should we take them seriously or just use them as motivation, one way or another?

Oh this young Kennedy's all right. Where is he working out of? Fall River? He's not going to beat Ed Markey - who is a wonderful man and a good senator but young Joe is perfectly fine.

Kennedy is 40, he had to make a move so he moved. He's raised his profile and he'll be in a good position for the next thing, whatever that is for him. I suppose he could win if things really go crazy in November, huge turnouts and hundreds of thousands of dead Americans could make for a barn-burner of an election.

Sadly, R467 all polling has Kennedy as the favorite. I agree, it’s sick, and the people of Mass never get tired of shaming themselves into falling for yet another Kennedy con.

Florida got very interesting today, if this holds until November. (I know, big if)

Um, the Kennedys have been good to Massachusetts and this one, young Joe, seems like he has a bright future.

I don't know what your hard-on is for them and I don't really care. I prefer them to the Bushes and the Trumps by a fair bit.

I'm sad to learn that my old stomping grounds is not treating Senator Markey well. He deserves better from those people.

And polling is just polling.

I don't believe R464 is the real poll troll.

I think R466 meant to refer to my post at R465 but typed R464 by mistake.

As to the question on polling -- polling is obviously more significant the closer it is to an election, and historically polls conducted after Labor Day become particularly important. However, polling in the spring of an election year can also reveal key patterns. And as Harry Enten said above, one pattern we are already seeing is that Biden is outpacing where Hillary was at this point 4 years ago.

Honestly, at this point the senate seems more important than the presidency. But it’s clear we won’t win one without the other. Love the polling! Will be sad to see Doug Jones go tho

Trump's an asshole. If you are an asshole, you like Trump. If you're not, you don't.

and as always, trust the poll troll. he knows whereof he speaks.

Anything new FCI?

yeah, it would be nice to hear from FCI right about now.

Internals are great for Dems. Fantastic. No new rounds yet but expect them mid- June. Dems expect huge outside money to compete with conservative elites who are going to spend far beyond what they did last time. They want the SC and courts for several generations.

So according to some on this page AA want to release all prisoners? We are just going to excuse this nonsense? I don't give a fuck who r450 is voting for, he's a piece of trash for those comments. AA have been loyal as fuck to the Democratic Party,. Stop with a the hate and worry about the Blue Collar workers that have cut off their own noses to spite their faces.

FCI/R477, thanks for the update on the internal Democratic polls.

Biden is performing ahead of where Hillary was at this point 4 years ago, although there are still some close polls.

Eg. this new poll in *Minnesota* shows Biden ahead by only 5 points (but that's an improvement from the narrow 1.5% win that Hillary got).

Star Tribune poll of Minnesota:

Biden (49)

Trump (44)

R479 You're welcome. I believe internal polls for MN were much wider this last round which caused the the freak out.

A poll out of Utah has Trump up by just three points in the state - 44 to 41. That's pretty big.

The Mormons really, really, really do not like tRump. That’s not going to flip Utah, but it should make the Dotard be worried — and perhaps require him to spend money there he would never have otherwise spent.

I think we'll know pretty early on in the evening how things are going to go. If Biden carries PA, it will be a good sign. If Collins gets defeated in ME, it will be a good sign. And these will be the earlier evening results. I can't see Biden flipping TX or FL or even NC, but if PA, MI and WI goes his way with all things being equal to 2016, it will be President-Elect Biden come Nov 4.

Biden has an excellent shot at NC and FL..

[quote] I can't see Biden flipping TX or FL or even NC, but if PA, MI and WI goes his way with all things being equal to 2016, it will be President-Elect Biden come Nov 4.

NC was one of the 10 slimmest margin of victory states. And there were problems with voting machines in Durham and probably other parts of the state.

9. North Carolina 3.8 percent

Trump 49.9 percent, Clinton 46.1 percent

Difference: 177,009 votes

[quote] I think we'll know pretty early on in the evening how things are going to go. If Biden carries PA, it will be a good sign. If Collins gets defeated in ME, it will be a good sign. And these will be the earlier evening results. I can't see Biden flipping TX or FL or even NC, but if PA, MI and WI goes his way with all things being equal to 2016, it will be President-Elect Biden come Nov 4.

What are you guys talking about?

IT'S ONLY MAY!

Yep! All of this is encouraging but it's a political lifetime between now and Nov 3rd!

IT'S ONLY MAY!

DON'T STOP WORKING!

R486 Why are you so freaked that we're talking about it? You have political pundits who discuss this day in and day out, regardless of whether it's May or September or New Year's Eve.

Chillax and just enjoy the discussion.

[quote]If Collins gets defeated in ME, it will be a good sign. And these will be the earlier evening results.

Given ME's ranked-choice ballots, that's not likely unless Gideon blows it out in the first round.

Yes, they did the same think with Hillary too, R487. She was the shoe-in. So, why waste my time voting? My vote won't be needed.

I guess you have forgotten who won...

FCI uses MAGAt diction aka types Boris

The usage of “elite” as a noun gives him away. In Deplorable Quasi-English “elite” means “educated and wealthy”, “SJW” means “nigger lover” and “Karen” means “woman who mistakes herself for a person”.

Stop being so fucking gullible, DLers. You’re making yourselves very easy marks for social engineering.

R490, did you forget to take your meds today? Not a good look.

If you want to know more about r491, see The Gentleman’s Guide To Forum Spies

R490 Yes, I caught all the little Russian trolls on this and other threads. They then try to turn the tables by calling Dems Russian trolls. This troll got busted. I use elites because that is exactly what the GOP uses instead of rich. Rich reads earned my money. Elite reads pompous and inherited wealth. All Dems should only use elites when they describe all the GOP donors and friends.

r482 Exactly. Trump is burning money airing ads in Arizona. He shouldn't need to. He's sweating...

r482 Exactly. Trump is burning money airing ads in Arizona. He shouldn't need to. He's sweating...

[quote]The African Americans: They've gone radical.

This hyperbole is hilarious in the age of reality where we literally have white idiots with fucking guns showing up at Subway and government buildings...to get their hair "did."

[quite] IT'S ONLY MAY! DON'T STOP WORKING!

🙄Who in the hell has suggested that anyone should “stop working.” No one. Absolutely no one.

I know it is an astounding proposition, but people are completely capable of both discussing the current state of political polls while not being deluded into thinking that Biden will win without us busting our asses to get him elected.

Treason thread is Muriel'd. Can we start a new one? She wasn't paywalling them for a long time.

I'm very happy that Joe Kennedy is running for the Senate seat. This is how you grow your Presidential bench for 2024 and 2028. Maybe Joe remains in the Senate and become the Majority Leader in a decade or two. Now, Ed Markey has been a good Democrat, but he doesn't really offer the state or the Party anything more than what you'd get with Kennedy. At least Kennedy isn't 73 so he can run for President in 2024 or 2028. We need to play the long game and get the 30 and 40 year old talent ready for their next jobs. We lost a lot of talent between 2012-2018.

Or maybe not.

[quot]If Collins gets defeated in ME, it will be a good sign.

The other thing to watch for in Maine is the 2nd congressional district.

Along with MI, PA & WI, Trump also picked up an electoral vote in Maine, becoming the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Maine is one of 2 states (the other is Nebraska) which allots its electoral vote by congressional district. So although Hillary won Maine overall (3 of its 4 EVs), Trump picked up 1 EV. If Biden can win back the 2nd congressional district, it will give him an extra EV.

Love you. PollTroll, but I don’t think that any district in Maine is a bellwether or that this will come down to a single Electoral vote.

Hi, R502. : )

I agree Maine's 2nd district will not necessarily be a bellwether or that it will come down to a single EV, but:

1) The loss of the electoral vote in Maine by Hillary was the first time for a Democrat in 3 decades, which did foreshadow problems in other states, particularly the Midwest.

2) Usually it doesn't come down to just 1 EV, but campaigns always like to have as many avenues to winning as possible, which is why the Obama Campaign worked hard to successfully win 1 EV in Nebraska in 2008, just in case.

R500 I don't believe that one bit. The virus will still be out there and may be worse. Consumers drive the economy. They aren't going to be spending like they've got money to burn because most don't. Nothing will erase the disaster he caused. He is the most incompetent prez ever. If the economy comes roaring back (it's not) Congress and Govs can take the credit.

Nobody wants 4 more years of him. Nobody. He was in trouble BEFORE the pandemic. Nothing has changed for the better.

Trump's approval rating is the lowest of any president seeking reelection since polling began. Worse than Ford, Carter, or Bush Sr. When SDNY and Congress get his financial documents, he will take another blow.

That said, negativity on the Dem side should not be tolerated. I don't give a flying fuck if you like or don't like Biden, the goal has to be defeating Trump or there is no country left. You think things are bad now - wait till he's reelected.

Trump's approval rating is the lowest of any president seeking reelection since polling began. Worse than Ford, Carter, or Bush Sr. When SDNY and Congress get his financial documents, he will take another blow.

That said, negativity on the Dem side should not be tolerated. I don't give a flying fuck if you like or don't like Biden, the goal has to be defeating Trump or there is no country left. You think things are bad now - wait till he's reelected.

Agree, R506. There is only one goal: defeating the Fascist-in-Chief. That’s it. We must get rid of him on November 3, or the country that we had will be gone.

This is one of the most consequential elections in the history of the country, right up there with 1860 and 1932.

Yeah. He’s that awful.

I did hear Nicolle Wallace say she would never vote GOP again.

Because he just got his balls squeezed on Twitter.

I know this is a cart before the horse thing, but Biden isn’t very interesting. I fear that after a win, people will instantly stop listening to him by December. The we will have another 2010 blood bath as Democrats get complacent again.

Back to reality, I saw Mark Cuban and Sean Hannity have a little debate on Shawn’s show. He is a very level headed Joe Rohan type that men love to listen to. Cuban’s voting for Biden, perhaps he can get him on the news a bit more. MAGA and Republicans sort of like him because he another billionaire with a business related reality TV show.

Why worry about a future that is nowhere near? If Biden’s plan is to bridge to the future, which it is, 2022 will be an important milestone. It will not just be Biden leading for Democrats - you are likely to see a lot of younger Democrats stepping up.

Thugs warn Trump: You in Danger, Gurl.

Dump is also underperforming his approval rating he gonna lose bad

Mark Cuban is a moderate Democrat who is a swing voter. He believes Democrats have better economic policies but he is also greedy and doesn't mind when he gets his way under more extreme conservative fiscal policies even when 99% of us don't benefit.

R504, you’re missing the point of Obama’s economic advisor. The economy is not going to be gangbusters I’m the 3rd quarter, but in comparison to the most recent quarters, with Depression-like numbers, the rate of growth could be significant. And something Trump can point to as a feather in his cap.

R515 So he set the house ablaze but called the fire dept who is putting it out and can smile and say he is saving the house he set ablaze? A house he didn't even build? Got it.

I know what you are saying but just as this is not an ordinary depression so he won't get the benefit of an improving economy. Things will still be in tatters. IF he had responded to this in a way such as Gov Cuomo (who also fucked up the initial response) he would be in excellent shape to claim credit. In fact, had he acted responsibly, it would have alleviated doubts about him and I think the election would be over. But he's an incompetent sociopath so that was never going to happen.

Exactly, r516. Cuomo responded just as badly at first, but in his appearances has been calm, cool, collected and empathetic. He also explains every day what’s actually being done to combat the virus, and doesn’t lie or bullshit. What a difference in demeanor with Dump. People aren’t stupid (well, deplorable are); they can see very clearly that Dump is trying to shift the blame and ignore the crisis because he wants to be re-elected, and those people feel their intelligence is being insulted. Also they clearly see Dump is a buffoon who clearly has no intelligence or empathy. Dump should have followed Cuomo’s lead—but then again, no way does Dump have that DNA to be like that. Or he should just stay quiet. But he can’t. He tweets about Biden and Joe Scarborough, like there’s nothing epic that’s happened in this country.

Also the Gov Cuomo didn't have all the intel the pres did about the virus.