Post Your Uneducated Guess as to When the Country Will Get Back to Normal Post Covid

January 2021

If history is any guide, mid-2022.

After millions of fatalities world-wide, herd immunity, and a moderately susccessful vaccine.

In the year 2525

July. People are getting sick of this shit.

Not before 2022. I have a feeling of doom about the whole thing. I am thinking bread lines?

Just in time for the second wave, OP.

I am thinking great depression and right wing fascist...lining us up, shooting us and letting us fall into a ditch.

[quote] In the year 2525

If man is still alive...if woman can survive...

Never. Gonna be a world war.

Back to the conventions of " Society" or back to a time when we don't have to worry about this deadly virus, OP? If the latter I agree with R5 unfortunately - 2022 or maybe even 2023. This virus keeps mutating and presenting ever more horrific qualities and symptomology of itself. I also worry that this aspect of it will make it far more challenging for virologists to create a vaccine for it than has been bandied about.

Vaccine in November; people get it by March.

Normal: May 2021.

By 2022 everything will be back to normal. I don't think we will get a vaccine either, it will just run its course.

If Halloween is cancelled this year, I will be pissed.

This is too depressing to speculate about.

(R3) I like their answer.

May 28, 2021 - around 8:00 AM

two years from this date, give or take a month

in the US, nothing will remain the same, the damage is too deep

Autumn of 2021 will be when the virus runs its course. The economic damage (which will have compounded other underlying economic problems) won't be repaired until around 2024.

Never. This wasn't the main event, kids. It's just the preview.

Optimistically - July. Realistically - October. Pessimistically - Feb 2021.

I'm with R3. The stay at home orders have only proven both sides of the political spectrum are big on talk and low on results.

People are indeed tired of this. CA here and the Dems need to be careful about placing all their eggs in the Newsom basket.

September 2020.

^Woops.. I'm with R4. This summer is all we'll see of this "new normal."

Americans will quickly go back to their "ME, ME, ME" ways by then. They already have.

[quote] The stay at home orders have only proven both sides of the political spectrum are big on talk and low on results.

Classical bothsiderism to deflect from the failings of one side.

"July. People are getting sick of this shit."

People can decide all they want that they are "sick of this shit." But that doesn't answer the question. We're talking "normal." Whatever that means. But you're a fucking idiot if you think it's in 4 moths.

Best case scenario is we see semblance of normalcy sometime towards end of 2021 if not 2022. It all hinges on scaling up testing and some sort of treatment therapy or vaccine. Even with a vaccine, we don't have the apparatus in place to mass produce and distribute it on the level that's needed. Nor the will from our festering asshole of a President to go above and beyond on a Federal level to make that happen.

Wednesday

All you doomsayers should take a cue from the immortal Doris Day:

Que sera sera.

Whatever will be, will be.

The future's not ours to see.

Que sera sera.

What will be, will be.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

There will be a new normal. There is no going back.

2023 the crisis part will be over. Maybe.

Until we have a vaccine, things will never completely go "back to normal." It will take years to rebuild the economy. 40.2 million Americans are unemployed and every rescue package adds a trillion to the national debt. The cultural reverberations will be felt for decades.

Scientists and doctors are learning how insidious this disease is every day. Only strikes the obese, elderly, and sick? Wrong. Can be controlled with masks? Wrong, we now know it can be transmitted through the eyes, too. There are cases of human-pet transmission. And we don't know the long-term health effects in survivors at this point. They are finding that survivors have heart, lung, and brain damage. Will this disease mutate and become more deadly? What happens when it *really* spreads in impoverished nations in Africa and South America?

It's a clusterfuck of epic proportions, but que sera sera.

Blind devotion to Thanksgiving and Christmas will keep things as they are until 2028.

Yeah, normal like 1918?

Same time next year. I think we'll get to herd immunity sooner than later when we find that this virus has been circulating for a lot longer than believed previously. Also the vaccine will undoubtedly come sooner than later as well. Because of quarantine fatigue people will look at getting the Wuflu much the same as their chances of acquiring lyme or westnile.

I say next March. Yet, nothing will be normal again. The economy will be shit and businesses we've known and loved will be gone. Hopefully Trump will be in jail.

I’m going with never. This has forever changed civilization. There will be a new normal but hyper consumerism, ever increasing population and ever expanding economies elevating the impoverished to consumers has ended.

2 years.

Two areas of concern:

Virology and infection

Economy

We will get a vaccine that is proven to work on everyone in two years (hopefully).

We will not be able to save the economy from toppling, because the damage done, and the damage that will ensue due to infection in 2020 and beyond. Supply chains are broken, and that will fuck us up in ways we have yet to see, and banking (banks and Wall Street) are about to take an unprecedented hit, because we didn’t save Main Street first, and immediately.

Too little federal help, a little too late. No going back, and cannot correct it in time because of unknown variables.

Run it’s course? The flu comes around every year and this is more contagious and deadly. 🙄

shush r36, the adults are talking.

oh, wait. I mis-read your post. as you were.

I agree with R11..........vaccine by Nov and back to normal in about a year. I saw a documentary on the flu of 1917/1918 and there were a lot of similarities in the disease to now and it was incredibly deadly with horrible mutations. People would get it and be dead within 24 hrs. Mankind survived it and Im hoping we can repeat that.

June 2021. I predict there will be a harsh rebound starting in late October and continuing through the holidays until March, April and a decrease around May and ending in June.

This guy says September.

I'm going with his odds...

Yeah, I’m going with the smartest people in the room, who say PROBABLY 2-4 years, but we really don’t know, now, so we?

This thread is depressing me. We're doomed.

If Trump "wins" the next election, we're doomed! The whole world.

[quote]I’m going with never. This has forever changed civilization. There will be a new normal but hyper consumerism, ever increasing population and ever expanding economies elevating the impoverished to consumers has ended.

I agree, R34. I think the microscopic virus is a “focal point”: and is the lynchpin in things that had been building to a climax for a long time. Things will never return to “normal” or at least B.C. (Before Corona). Believe that end-stage capitalism/consumption has had its day. Sociopathic leaders (of governments and businesses) will find less of a foothold as many during these months question “the meaning of life” as they observe life (nature, environment, friends/family, etc.) juxtaposed with death (evidence of prior destruction on the planet, people falling ill from the virus, the impotency in some respects of $$$$, etc.)

Think that the economic and cultural impacts will result in shifts globally that affect societies in transformative ways. There will be changes in every aspect of life A.C. (After Corona): medically, technologically, governmentally, economically and most importantly, on the individual level: questioning facets of human existence. This will vary to some degree depending on the locale: those who have experienced more of the virus (and “opposed” it), will have deeper impacts.

In the more immediate future, sense things as they are until approximately end of summer (Northern Hemisphere August). There likely will be a resurgence later (in the Northern Hemispheric Autumn or Winter, and then treatments for Corona (combined with the virus “serving its purpose as the “focal point”), will see it finally recede fairly quickly.

R36 = Russian propaganda cuck/Republican who wants Americans to die.

I have been wondering if I should plan to get the disease over the summer, or maybe next winter? My question is, as a city dweller, will I eventually get it, regardless of any precautions I take? And if that is true, should I schedule it somehow, in particular when the local hospitals have all the necessary materials?

I do want to live long enough to see Trump lose in November .

Oh no, I’m not ready for that final disappointment...

R47, you most likely will not get it so do NOT infect yourself. This is a contagious virus, but the more they are testing, the more they will know if/when they will have the next outbreak. Now that the numbers are decreasing per day infected, as it continues on the down slope, the odds of getting it grow less and less.

R47 You might as well die now.

Dem here, but you all are delusional if you think Biden can defeat Trump.

My Republican in laws who are all already complaining of the virus have already said "this is horrible! Don't vote for Biden because he wants more of China!"

Americans are stupid AF and will be back crowding their WalMarts and Olive Gardens by August because THIS IS AMERICA THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE!

You are delusional if you think he can't, r50, particularly since literally all of the data we have today indicates that Biden is doing well against Trump and Democrats are doing well against Republicans nationwide.

"This thread is depressing me. We're doomed."

Try not to let it get to you. People love to be the bearers of evil tidings. But it t doesn't help anything to say this pandemic will go on for two, three, four years, and that the economy will never recover and that everything is going to get so much worse, blah, blah, blah. That's not being "realistic." It's simply assuming the worst. I can't stand people like like that, who like to wallow in misery and take everyone else down with them. People like that have no hope, which is indeed pitiful.

R49 is really ignorant. Infections only decreased because of quarantines. Now that states are opening up, infections will rise.

And experts know that 70% of the worldwide population will get infected within the year.

Don’t tell people there’s nothing to worry about.

June 2022.

R50 is right. The way things are going in PA with Governor Wolf may very well make PA red again come November. He’s turned the state into a real shit show, this doesn’t bode well for Biden taking PA in November.

[quote]Americans are stupid AF and will be back crowding their WalMarts and Olive Gardens by August

August? Oh honey, they’re already back now.

Not in our lifetimes. This is the beginning of something very bad that's going to take decades and decades to reverse. If we ever can. I think it's more likely that we're headed toward ArmageddonIn. Mary me if you want. I don't give a fuk

This feels like the beginning of Armageddon to me too.

I don’t necessarily believe the conspiracy theories about China intentionally releasing this virus, but it does make me realize how easily a country could use germ warfare to take out the rest of the world.Its scary as hell.

The whole experience has been so surreal--beginning in November, and especially through the holidays I had the most horrible premonitions that something was terribly wrong, and then . . . I know that what I'm about to say may seem unbalanced, or at least from "wu wu" (or at least Xfiles) land, but I've also had the nagging suspicion that this isn't really about "the Virus", but perhaps about some hideous/malevolent development that we're being not informed of, such as an asteroid on the way, the poles shifting much more rapidly than forecast, or perhaps the return of another "Dalton Minimum/1816" --the year without a summer--in any case, I don't see things returning to "normal" ever, as someone upthread said this is just the preview--fasten your seatbelts . . .

I don’t have any guesses about the future. Only the hope that my Xanax and Ambien prescriptions continue uninterrupted, indefinitely.

I don’t know and I don’t care anymore. I work in the healthcare field, and I have witnessed firsthand just how horrible some of the people in our country can be. I’ve seen protestors block people from being able to receive medical treatment, just because they don’t want to wear facemasks. I am DONE with country and will escape by any means possible.

I'm with r2. Minimum.

Everyone by then will have known someone who was in the ICU and/or who died from the Coronavirus.

Cranberry PA? Oh, FFS! My ex is from there. It's like two stoplights.

"Normal" is too hard to quantify. I would say never. This is a paradigm shift - plain and simple.

We can only hope that humankind will learn how to be better prepared with ways to implement assistance in all catastrophes. We have to beef up emergency supplies and have persons trained in as many specialties as possible. This is a wake up call folks. More calamities could come around as our climate changes. So, yes, we need to be more vigilant and be better able to share valuable resources. We need to re-direct funds from the military. Warfare depends less and less on boots on the ground as conflicts become more asymmetrical. Friendly countries can stockpile on a different assortment of goods, similar to our global agriculture where we cooperate with bartering, perhaps.

Going with at least September at this point

R55, Excuse me? Governor Wolf is much higher in polls than Trump, in dealing with Covid-19. Trump's visit 5/14 to a mask-producing company in Macungie (near, but not, Allentown**) will not change that ratio.

If you are in PA, which I doubt, then you know Wolf is contending with Yahoos in "rebellious" counties, such as Schuylkill (Sidenote: I was born there.), that are flouting his restrictions.

He is even bucking Democratic politicians, such as State Sen. Lisa Boscola, who is seeking to move the Lehigh Valley from Red to Yellow for no discernible health reasons but all too evident financial reasons.

Yes, Wolf made some initial blunders, notably with State Liquor stores (now open for curb-side), but name a Governor who didn't (maybe Gavin Newsom, and look what he wants for Los Angeles).

Trump doesn't stand a chance here in November. We lost our minds and perhaps votes to Russia in 2016, but the Blue Wave will return in force.

** Just as "Allentown" was used by Billy Joel when everybody here knew he was singing of Bethlehem (Steel).

Normal? When pigs fly.

R68 I'm from the "red" part of Pennsyltucky, and I can tell you everyone here is pissed at Wolf, the" job destroyer, asshole, Nazi commander, etc." So yes, unless the people of Allegheny and Philadelphia counties come out in droves, there is a high possibility the state goes red in November. These "oppressed" people will sure go out and vote like in 2016. The election has not been decided yet, for sure.

Not happening until mid 2021 at earliest, and by then there will have been a more intense second wave of infection which will really send us into a lockdown.

The political wherewithal for human survival is much higher than returning to work for minimum wage. Expect a massive blue surge across the country. We’re not just taking the house and the Presidency, we’re going to take the Senate in force.

Read it and weep Repugs. The early poll numbers already bear this out. You’re in deep deep shit politically.

There's absolutely going to be a second or third wave, the second may come with the premature reopening that's just starting and then we'll get a third in the winter, or we may get lucky this summer and have a second wave start sometime after Labor Day and no third wave.

My guess is we'll have a decent means of treatment by early 2021 and possibly a vaccine by fall 2021, or at least a vaccine that will help if not completely prevent.

The economy will be a totally different story, and we'll need an FDR type to get us through this. Absolutely no predictions about that, I'm afraid.

." I think it's more likely that we're headed toward ArmageddonIn. Mary me if you want. I don't give a fuk."

You (and the others on this thread like you) sound deeply disturbed. I think you all should see a good mental health professional soon. I mean, if you REALLY think "Armageddon " is imminent then your are sorely in need of help.

[quote]Dem here, but you all are delusional if you think Biden can defeat Trump.

Dem here, and you are delusional if you think Biden cannot defeat Trump, particularly in view of all of the data showing that Trump is in trouble.

Trump is already in trouble, and he will drag his storm troops into it, to bully people. He’s already doing this. Such as in Wisconsin, during the election. I’m wondering, at some point, a Governor is going to call out the National Guard to counter Trump’s troops, and if it’s done poorly, it could really be a shit show.

This is gonna be a shitshow of epic proportions, and it's all feeling like the run up to the Confederate Reboot of 2022.

I'm seriously thinking about learning how to shoot a firearm if it is gonna go there......

[quote]Trump is already in trouble

Which he knows, which is why he's so desperately trying to make "Obamagate" a thing.

I agree, r60. I have an impending sense of doom. Maybe it has something to do with the UFO footage that the government just verified was authentic? I know it sounds crazy, but why did they decide to announce this during a pandemic?

Maybe those idiots will be dead by then, r70.

All I know is McRib season better not be cancelled, lest be "the Rustling Heard 'round The World!"

R81 speaks some sense

True Normal? Christmas of 2021. We will all finally get back to normal probably by October, once there's a RELIABLE vaccine and everyone has access to it.

Y'all. We need to turn off the TV and political noise. Don't fall for this shit show. The fucker is insane. He is a mass murderer. He is corrupt and incompetent to staggering proportions. He is a joke and Putin sits there and laughs his ass off. No. Trump is not legitimate or a serious President. The media keeps treating him as if he's normal. He isn't. We know people are dying. We know which measures to take to protect ourselves. So stop watching Trump. Just stop

No more fake speculation from pundits about "what Biden needs to do..." Trump is going to be defeated. More importantly, so is the Republican Party. All of them. State local, national. Allll gone. We are going to be active in supporting the ACLU and any other group actively fighting to make out elections free and fair. And we are going to turn out to vote in massive numbers. MASSIVE.

This is what the next two years look like.

R70, Yes, we have ignorant gun-toters, "dumb Dutchmen," and racists in much of the state, but they aren't the only ones who will vote in droves.

Look at the tiny group out for Trump in Macungie yesterday. A sitting President. In an election year. True, it wasn't a speaking stop, but you'd think that supporters who didn't care about wearing masks and who couldn't go to work anyway would show up to wave and be on local TV.

I am curious what you guys might think about hunkering down more, or less?

I have been staying in, mostly, since the end of February, I think it was. I’m retired, so I don’t have to go out. I’m stocked up on food, so I have made limited trips out. But I am wondering how long I can live this way? I am thinking of having my cleaning woman come back, after a couple months off. To get things clean but also just to do something normal. But I worry that she gets exposed to too many other people and would be like inviting in Typhoid Mary.

I know that, maybe, most of you have to go to work and do so without being crazy about it, so I just thought I’d ask. I got an interesting response to R47, so I thought I’d ask again.

All housekeepers are whores, don'tcha know, r97. They just can't shelter down, its like they just don't care!

R87, obviously!

Pierre - What does your intuition say?

My partner’s 67 year old mother is coming out to visit next week, from out of state. She is flying 1500 miles to pick up partner’s nephew, to fly him back with her. She will then fly round trip again to bring him home, two weeks later. I told my partner that she isn’t allowed in our house. I could put up with some of the right wing looney tune shit before, but I’m not putting my life at risk. No one is stepping off a plane and coming directly to my house. She thinks it’s a flu.

I guess I am just lonely today. I want to go out and get my hair cut. I need to have my tailor fix a couple things, but how long do I have to wait, a year? That’s my intuition, R90, August, 2021 is my guess. Maybe April, if we’re lucky. I live in a city so I’m amazed I have t caught it already.

Yeah, R91, that sounds really fatalistic. A single round trip is questionable. Two is just teasing the devil.

My brother and his girlfriend flew from New England to Florida a few days before the advisory that “older people” shouldn’t fly. He’s 62, but that was a screwy warning, because either there is danger of viral infection or not, age isn’t really a smart way of assessing risk. So, I was privately pissed because I thought they should have known it was a stupid idea. Later I found out the the girl friend, who is a bit of a gold digger, got the corona, and had a fever for 10 days. I’m glad she survived but I’m pissed she flew in the first place.

My siblings were oblivious to this whole thing and only were prepared at all because I passed along what I read on DataLounge to them. At least, they told me they got food. I’m not sure how they are living now.

Next summer, 2021

Give it a year after Biden is inaugurated. If he's not, things will never be "back to normal."

Never. This is what is going to happen. Trump loves chaos as when there is chaos he can operate very well. There will be a period of quiet from now till about mid-July. Then the ramping up of virus cases will start. By the end of September, the hospitals will be overloaded, protection gear and everything needed desperately will be out of stock. October will find the US in a full health melt-down, and then Trump will start his new propaganda messaging. It will be basically, "If you had listened to me instead of the Democrats and elite scientists this would have burned out and we would not be here now if you let the country go herd immunity back in March".

This will be hammered into the airwaves, and then the first debate, Biden will perform so badly, the next day the party will have open discussions on replacing him. Biden will step down because of "health issues" mid-October. A new candidate will be brought forth, but the nation will be in a full panic from the out of control virus, Fox propaganda, and Trump's promise of a vaccine in January, and his "steady" leadership during a crisis, so the new candidate will not make a dent. The Democrat will loose.

January 2021 brings Trump's second term and the promise of additional testing, and the postponement of the "vaccine" promised. Take it from there for your additional nightmare fuel.

Hi Pierre, I clean for a living and voluntarily stopped working in March. I couldn't figure out what to do. I did not want to unintentionally infect my elderly clients. I sometimes miss my daily routine, really it was the best job I ever had. I told everyone maybe I'd come back in the Spring. By then I'm afraid I'll be way out of shape, but whatever.

Follow your intuition. It's a really tough choice right now.

R97, Cant you protect your clients by wearing a mask and gloves when you clean?

Hi R97,

Everything changed today. Yesterday, I was getting bored and thinking of resuming normal housekeeping, and a routine trip to my tailor, but this morning, I woke up with a fever of 101.01°f, and chills. I’m using Alieve, but it’s not lowering my fever. And I have had a dry cough since about March 25. I had a negative COVID19 test on 5/4/20. Bust since then! I’ve been hearing a lot about the tests having a lot of false negatives. The fever is new today. Those are my only symptoms, but I assume this must be the Coved, because I cannot imagine what it would be otherwise. As long as I don’t get much worse, I will wait and call my doctor on Monday to ask what to do.

You must be young if you like a cleaning job. It seems like hard work. How are you surviving?

R98, I just assumed that a house cleaner would be exposed to other’s germs in a lot of different peoples‘ homes, and so, eventually pickup the virus, and be unable to avoid spreading it further. It just seems so contagious.

R96 is another one of the wacko doomsayers. I think they should all get together and go jump off a cliff. No one would miss them.

Hopefully in the fall.

Everything is normal in downstate IL now.

Mid 2021.

I should qualify what I said at R103. Nothing is going to get back to normal until we have a proven vaccine. All the medical experts are saying that will take 12-18 months. One thing I know in my own mind is that we will have a resurgence of the virus in the fall, and it may be worse than what we have now.

Hi R98 & R99 , Yes I always wore gloves from start to finish. Half the time I'd need a full 8 hrs. because of the size of the house. I tend to heat up when I clean, so I always open the windows for air flow. I thought very hard about whato do, and decided I could not wear a mask for 8 hours. It doesn't feel comfortable and I'm sure I would get too hot. Why do a job if it's not fun? I told everyone I will try to clean again in the Spring. I'm not worried as much for myself, but I really had to weigh the odds of catching this virus and passing it to my partner at home who is in his late 70's. I am not young. I'm 57, even though I'm in good shape and usually ferl younger. I also didn't want to be a Typhoid Mary a d give this virus to my clients, who are also friends.

They say 80% will just get a mild case and then get the antibodies. I made it a point to get the antibody test last week. I tested negative. I thought if I tested positive twice for antibodies, that would be good, and I could work again. I miss my clients and the income. So now I sit, reading good old Datalounge, and wait for a vaccine or antibodies. Good luck and may we all educate ourselves and help each other.

A vaccine is years and years away. This ridiculous delusion about a vaccine popping up in 18 months is absurd. Stop. It’s not happening.

We still don’t have reliable tests. At least, there are stories about high levels of false reports. If you can’t test for it, I’d guess that you’d be even further from a vaccine.

I can imagine Trump declaring that a vaccine has been found and is being manufactured, maybe late Summer, 2020, when it is all completely fictitious.

The key game changer here is reliable tests. I'm hearing there are some tests that let you know if you are actively shedding COVID in 4 hours. If that happens that can be a game changer for a lot of businesses - take a test the night before, if in the morning you are actively shedding, you stay home from work.

The key to all of this is easy, fast, reliable testing. If that exists, things can go back to normal a lot faster. If I ruled the world I'd make testing just as important as a vaccine/treatments.

Me too, R109. But “testing” is the last thing Trump wants. He seems to be trying to suppress it. His idea being, that testing will only add to newly discovered cases, which he thinks will reflect poorly on him.

I think the idea of suppressing tests for this reason is the absolutely worst idea possible. It is either criminally craven, opportunistic, and selfish; or the height of stupidity. Or all of these.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

All of the above.

Covid will just disappear.

R112, well, how many dead will be left behind when it does?

Just a few weeks ago, we were worried about 2 million dead. Then we got hopeful that the feds were getting organized.... and then the feds kept screwing-up. Delaying, failing, contradicting themselves, it’s been incomprehensible. I’ll bet most people don’t even know what the broadest outlines of the plan is. Federal plan? State plan? Regional plan? Who is in charge? What plan takes precedence? Is there a plan?

As I’ve observed it, I think Cuomo took control of the Northeast because of the incompetence of the Trump administration. Imagine the stupidity of Trump promoting ANY new medication, such as hydroxywhatever. Anybody who has studied science in college must have an idea of how stupid Trump was to jump to conclusions, as he did. AnywY, Cuomo jumped in to flatten the curve, and that seemed to mostly have worked, but now what?

Whenever a vaccine is readily available to the masses. 12-18 months is the shortest time I've seen.

When a vaccine is wildly available to everyone...Spring of 2021.

What sucks is that friends are starting to get together again, and I feel like a nut job for wanting to continue to stay isolated. Even my partner thinks I’m crazy, and I can tell that he is annoyed. Im not sure how much longer we can keep this up.

I haven’t heard it discussed much, but do you realize how dangerous it will be, when they start making 100,000 doses of vaccine a day? I mean, IF they can even ramp up to that level? How will that be distributed?

If the US was making it, and Trump is President, he’s not going to share the doses, he might allow other countries to learn how to also make the vaccine, but he’s not sharing. That’s the kind of thing that leads to war, and fast.

R68, I’m in Bucks County. I doubt you’re actually here in Pa - you may be from here but you’re not here now. Wolf is a complete disaster, as is Levine. She quietly moved her own mother out of a nursing home all while requiring nursing homes to admit corona patients. They have begun the impeachment process of Wolf - not that it will pass.

He is also ruining the down ballot races.

PA is the only state in the country not allowed to conduct real estate transactions.

PA will be red in November, mark my words.

What's the big deal about distributing a new vaccine, R117, as others have said, also. Isn’t there an existing infrastructure for distributing vaccines already set up, like for the flu, in developed countries—don’t see why that can’t be used.

They already have to tweak the ordinary flu vaccine each year, anyway... so that’s a “new” vaccine that has to be distributed each year. Maybe I’m missing something.

[quote] Whenever a vaccine is readily available to the masses. 12-18 months is the shortest time I've seen.

The shortest vaccine in history was FOUR YEARS. For mumps. There WILL NOT be a vaccine in 18 months. That’s a fucking pipe dream started by the Trump admin. Stop parroting their stupid shit. There WILL NOT BE a vaccine in Spring of 2021.

Bank on it.

R118 Real estate transactions may not be allowed in your county of PA, but they have reopened in many other counties.

R120 the mumps vaccine was developed in the 1940s. This is now.

For SARS-CoV-19, China determined and published the genome sequence of the pathogen in January 2020. Thousands of scientists worldwide are working on this, with things like, oh, computers and electron microscopes and DNA tech.

So my uneducated guess is that a vaccine and testing could be available by 2021. That does not mean “back to normal” though. Massive unemployment, seismic disruption to regular life.

Plus, even if a vaccine is developed by next year, we'll lose a lot of people by then. Maybe me or you. Stay safe, hon.

[quote] R119: What's the big deal about distributing a new vaccine, [R117], ...

My example speculated that they initially produce 100,000 doses a day. That’s a huge number. If they rely on chicken egg production as incubators, it will be a challenge, I think. I don’t know what we are capable of, but let’s just speculate 100,000 per day.

We have probably, more than 100,000 important, wealthy, influential people in NYC alone. Or in DC alone. Or in the Pentagon. Or in Belgium, alone. Or in the top levels of European governments, or South American governments.

Imagine you live in one of those barrios in Rio, or outside Mexico City. You know you’re never going to get the vaccine. There are 7 billion people in line in front of you. And I know, they just need to create a firewall for heard immunity; but the poor aren’t going to wait 6 months while their bosses are getting the vaccine.

It’s just an opportunity for the gang that couldn’t shoot straight to screw things up. By then, some idiot with no experience will be running distribution and they won’t have even thought of this.

OK, r123 so within a week or two all the wealthy influential people in DC, NYC and Belgium have it. At 100,000 per day, your example produces 3 million per month. Then it becomes more accessible, as more companies jump into production. I wasn’t aware how vaccines are incubated, in chicken eggs.

My question at r117 was based on how new flu vaccines are rolled out each fall in developed countries, without much trouble.

This is a worldwide health threat, and is producing worldwide science and tech responses. In today's NYT is news about successful vaccine development. Maybe production structures can start to get ramped up now.

Even the gang that couldn’t shoot straight seem to be able to manage new flu vaccines every year.

^^^^ oh, I’m not r117, I’m r119

September.

September.

I say September, too.

R119, Eggs are used in some cases. I am pretty sure the flu uses eggs. I think a shortage of chickens was an issue during a swine-flu vaccine panic some years ago.

I am just throwing out numbers as guesses and really don’t know what the real numbers will be. If they share the recipe for the vaccine, then all the developed world can all make their own vaccine for their own people. But there may be large areas where billions of people simply have no champion. It could be destabilizing, though, the way it unravels may not be anticipated. For example, Bangladesh has 170 million people. Who will make the vaccine for them?

The movie “Contagion” tried to include this as a subplot in their movie with poor people kidnapping aid workers in exchange for vaccines for their villages, which otherwise would be last in line.

So, I’m just speculating, but my point is that an effective vaccine, if we even ever get one, won’t be the end of the problem.