R12 - You'd have to go back to the last Next Bond? thread and count up the, Why nots?
R1 - "As others fall by the wayside, Aiden Turner is looking like a better choice.
Jack Lowden, James Norton, Tom Cullen could also still slip it.
Hardy, Elba, Cavill, Hiddleston, Fassbender are probably out."
No "probably" about it. Hardy hasn't got the looks, Elba is too old already to carry a four-film 10-year deal, Hiddleston was never in (he is, however, made for a very suave Bond villain), Cavill is a bore and getting two major franchises is just too - well too something; Fassbender is kind of past his sell date - ten years ago, maybe, not now.
James Norton - got the looks, the build, he's an intelligent actor and if you saw him in Happy Valley as the pyscho rapist, he does do "edge".
Turner is underrated as an actor (cf. his reviews in the West End last year for a sold out run of "The Lieutenant of Inishmore"), very hot, and as he's now about 38, the age Craig was when he got the gig, they should nail Turner fast before his fabled black curls start receding.
Jack Lowden, I suspect, may share Madden's issue. He's also only 30 or so and the only woman he's ever been linked with is . . . Saoirse Ronan.
Tom Cullen, however, is tall dark handsome and butch. Perfect age, 34. Irish/English background but technically Welsh.
So out off the list: Turner and Cullen are the only ones that make sense to me.