NEW ORLEANS -- Throngs of revelers may have brought the coronavirus to New Orleans during Mardi Gras celebrations here.
But the city’s poverty rate, lack of healthcare and affordable housing, and high rates of residents with preexisting medical conditions may be driving its explosive growth and could make it the next U.S. epicenter of the outbreak.
The number of known coronavirus cases in Louisiana jumped to 2,305 on Thursday, an increase of 510 cases from Wednesday, and a total of 83 deaths, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. Nearly half of Louisiana's cases -- 997 -- came from New Orleans.
The city also reported Thursday that a 17-year-old teen died after contracting the virus, bringing the city's coronavirus death tally to 46 -- more than half of the state's total death count.
New Orleans Homeland Security Director Collin Arnold said hospital capacity in the New Orleans region is dwindling and the city will need additional hospital beds within weeks.
“New Orleans is preparing to mobilize in a way we hope we will never see again in our lifetimes,” Arnold said. “This disaster will define us for generations.”
New Orleans saw its first coronavirus case on Mar. 9. Two weeks later, confirmed cases jumped to 567 and nearly doubled the following three days, marking one of the fastest coronavirus growth rates in the country.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the face of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said officials in New Orleans were likely caught off guard by the virus' stealth spread -- until it began burgeoning.
"It putters along and you think you’re OK, then it starts to go up a little and then – bingo! – it goes up in an exponential way," he said in an interview with CNN. "That’s what's happening in New Orleans now."
Infectious disease specialists point to the massive Mardi Gras celebrations, which picked up with weekend parades in February and culminated on Feb. 25, Fat Tuesday, as a likely catalyst for the coronavirus in New Orleans. More than 1 million people crammed into the city for the annual bacchanal, often squeezed shoulder-to-shoulder to watch parades or catch beaded necklaces tossed from balconies in the French Quarter.
“New Orleans is a major gateway for people who are arriving here from other parts of the world," said Richard Oberhelman, chair of the department of global community health and behavioral science at the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine in New Orleans. "Seeing cases first in New Orleans makes complete sense."
Once here, the virus found a welcoming environment in houses crammed with multiple families, people with preexisting conditions and a dearth of drivers, according to an analysis by the Data Center, a research group in New Orleans.
Many low-income families live in overcrowded homes, raising the likelihood for virus spread, the report said. Around 24% of New Orleans residents live at the poverty level, higher than other coronavirus hotspots such as New York City (17%) and King County, Washington (9%).
Also, 1 in 5 of New Orleans households don't have access to a car, meaning access to drive-thru testing can be limited, and nearly one-fourth don't have access to the internet to follow city directives and access information, the report said.
"The virus is spreading very quickly," said Allison Plyer, the Data Center's chief demographer. "The rates we have are up there with New York City, yet we have vulnerabilities here that are worse."
Lack of affordable housing could also help spread the virus, as some communities will find it challenging to follow the shelter in place directives, said Andreanecia Morris, executive director of HousingNOLA, a non-profit housing advocacy group.
A city with around 1,200 homeless residents, 24,000 people on a waiting list for Section 8 federal housing subsidies, and thousands more without a lease or mortgage could struggle to contain the virus, she said.