A Big Note of Thanks to DL’s own Cassandra!

The “dead cat bounce” was right on schedule.

The dow keeps sinking because people with good sense see the iceberg coming while the Trump administration orders the Titanic full speed ahead.

The Fed should not have been cutting the rates prior to this, but they gave in to the Orange Anus' bullying.

Datalounge eldergheys who have their retirement hitched to the stock market are shaking in their pumps. It's the only reason they voted for Trump!

Please - a month ago 90% of the eldergay posters on any retirement/investment thread were saying NEVER leave the market, it will always go up long term even if there is a dip, you’re a fool to sit on cash. Now everyone is like “I knew it was coming”. It happens in EVERY crash of every kind - Wall Street, real estate. It’s fascinating to watch the herd/liar mentality.

I’m a permanent anti-market skeptic. Consistently conservative investor. Never made the big gains everyone brags about. But never lost more than 1-2%. It’s so sad to see all of these naive 401k “investors” who look at their statements and feel rich as the market peaks- and spend like they are. Then are stunned that they have 30% less suddenly - and can’t retire. Stocks do not equal savings/net worth.

It’s a crime that the average American was dumped into Wall Streets hands in the 1980s as an excuse to eliminate pensions. We will ever have financial security again.

Wow, R4, talk about a broad-brush generalization. Unlike that “90%” you referenced, I hauled my retirement savings (about $500K) out of the market shortly after Trump was elected. I knew early on that everything he touches turns to crap, so I only played the dip twice (and successfully) over the last 3 years. All my money is now in cash at a fixed 4% return.

This is clearly a watershed moment in the history of the market, and correctly-timed buying/selling could lead to significant gains.

"It’s a crime that the average American was dumped into Wall Streets hands in the 1980s as an excuse to eliminate pensions."

Damn straight. In the past, pension money was held in a relatively small number of corporate funds or state/municipal funds. Each fund had a chief fiduciary whose job it was to maximize profits for their plan. If they didn't perform, they were out on their ass. Also pension fund managers could easily keep an eye out for financial instruments that played foot loose with rules and regulations, thus eliminating fraud.

Now, with 401K plans, nobody is minding the store, and Wall Street quick buck artists are given free reign to pull whatever financial shenanigans they want, as long as they personally benefit and everybody else gets fucked. See: 2008 financial crisis.

[quote]All my money is now in cash at a fixed 4% return.

How? Interest rates are half that.

Fuck you, Trump! That's in the history book now. hahahahahahahahahaha.

[quote]The Dow last plunged more than 12%, marking the fastest recorded slide into market "correction" territory — defined as a decline of at least 10% from a previous high.

R7 - when my former employer set up its 403(b) and 457 plans in the 1980s the most conservative, safe haven option was a guaranteed 4% fixed return - peanuts at that time. The plan has stayed in place since then and the 4% option has to remain a part of it. Currently it’s operated by Voya.

Thanks, OP! I would tell you when to move back in, but will you believe me? Nobody else ever does, speaking of which...

As for R4: listen, bub, I started pulling my money out of aggressive equity investments in small tranches in 2018. I continued into 2019 when I left 50% in equities. My weighted, corresponding S&P selling price was higher than the S&P at last Friday’s close, so although I missed some of the party in 2019, I still enjoyed much of the ride up, and got 100% out of equities in Feb within 5% of the top. And I wrote about it in the other thread, in advance!

I’m not “90% of the eldergay posters”. I am Cassandra!

I think we’ll initially have a series of large drops in market indexes with each new milestone. One milestone would be an announcement that Mike Pence was rushed to the hospital with symptoms; or that Trump himself was being treated for it. Or perhaps other prominent figures. Other milestones would be news that a certain psychological number has been reached, or that a certain area was now rife with the virus. Certainly any very restrictive quarantining of large parts of American territory, like home quarantining; of all of Manhattan. Also the “temporary” cessation of sales from a major company, such as Apple due to a shortage of Chinese parts; or the failure of an otherwise viable, large company, like Mays Department Stores or Best Buy. I can’t say what other milestones might be though. This effect will gradually wear off as it gets priced into the market.

[quote]In the past, pension money was held in a relatively small number of corporate funds or state/municipal funds.

Except for all the companies that screwed their employees on their pensions. Employees have greater access to their money with a 401k.

Thanks, Cassandra at R11 - that logic seems reasonable and sound. Please continue to keep us updated with your analyses and insights!

Here’s a question for you: Although it is widely discussed and believed that the market has been way overvalued for a long time - high P/E ratios and other symptoms of a bubble - why do people keep buying stocks at ridiculously high prices?

Is it because of pure speculation (gambling) or because interest rates are so low that stocks are the only viable option for a decent return on one’s money?

R13, well, we had one or two examples on the other thread. Some guy was convinced that this current correction was a small downturn that was completely normal, and that stocks would rebound quickly, as they have done many times, in the recent past.

I bought an aggressive mutual fund right at the bottom of a previous downturn, in Nov 2019. I made 40% in just 3 months, and I held it in my Roth account, so I’m not paying short term capital gain tax rates on the profit. I imagine some people think the current downturn is like that. This fund was already at a “ridiculously high price”, even at the bottom of the dip, btw. It’s a mild form of greed mixed with pride, fear, and disappointment of missing out on a good thing.

The thing is, this current downturn is completely different from any past downturn. It is “more like” the 2007-2008 crash than it is like more recent dips. I say “more like”, but not “like”, because it is unique. Some new and/or young investors have never personally experienced a bear market, and don’t realize what can happen, and how fast the market can fall.

Finally, some securities have “market makers”:

[italic] The most common type of market maker is a brokerage house that provides purchase and sale solutions for investors in an effort to keep financial markets liquid. [/italic]

A reminder that I am an inexpert investor, and past behavior of the market is not indicative of future behavior. Anything you do is your responsibility. You should throughly research any decision to buy, sell, or hold. My predictions are meant for entertainment, only.

The market is going to trigger a circuit breaker tomorrow.

Cassandra, could you recommend a book or a website for beginners? I would really like to understand this process and not feel helpless. My nominal superannuation balance (in Australia) just dropped almost $10,000 from when I checked it two weeks ago (not that I’m retiring anytime soon). I’d like to understand options for the future beyond banks and super.

I somehow missed Cassandra's posts, but I took much of my 401K out of stocks and put it into bonds about 18 months ago, and would start to question my decision every time we had a financial thread because everyone said to keep your money in stocks. Happy to say that I only lost just under 1% in the recent stock market dip, and that's because the job puts their share into stocks so I always have a small percentage in the market.

A big improvement over losing nearly everything in 2008, thanks to an unethical financial advisor at Edward J-nes.

I think most smart investors understand that they are in it for the long haul, big picture people.

We “rebalanced” the majority of our holdings into CDs and other cash equivalents two months ago. As a result of the correction we’re significantly overweight in cash.

Now our financial advisor is strongly suggesting we use one percent of that cash to buy equities every time the S&P drops 200 points.

It’s a plan

R17, I understand that the Bogleheads.org, or one of Suze Orman’s books are good for beginners.

There’s a movie called “Too Big to Fail” about the 2008 crash that is interesting and historical.

We’ve got a panic happening now in which people act emotionally instead of rationally.

[quote] R19: I think most smart investors understand that they are in it for the long haul, big picture people.

They say you can’t time the market; however, this collapse was pretty obvious from the beginning. I cashed out of the market, and have saved myself 20% as of this point. I don’t know how anyone could argue with that.

The market in my estimation is in for a MAJOR correction. If you haven't pulled out yet you might want to reconsider getting the fuck out now.

I'm leaving my $$ where it is. I choose not to even look at it. If I bail I pay heavy capital gains so I'm just leaving it

[quote] I cashed out of the market, and have saved myself 20% as of this point. I don’t know how anyone could argue with that.

The earnings of people who stayed in the market through the 2008 collapse eclipsed those who got out and got back in.

Link, R25?

I [italic] hate [/italic] being right all the time! I’m pulling my hair out.

Well if coronavirus gets its way none of those retirees is gonna need their money anyway!!

So it's gonna work out well for them!

[quote] Consistently conservative investor. Never made the big gains everyone brags about. But never lost more than 1-2%.

Amalgamated Buggy Whip will NEVER go out of fashion!

The earnings of people who stayed in the market through the 2008 collapse eclipsed those who got out and got back in.

I predicted a long time ago, I don’t know in what thread to look, but that Trump would declare Marshall Law and cancel the election. It will be at a time when people are too sick, or too afraid to gather to protest. The Fall. He’ll try, anyway. I don’t know what happens next.

This situation is one of the major reasons why I, and some others, feared Trump. Not because of his golfing, but because of his inability to handle the crises that inevitably confront every President. It’s an awful time to have a President who lacks empathy and compassion.

OP, thanks again for this thread, so I don’t stink-up other threads with my prognostications.

De nada, Cassandra! I really appreciate your cool, rational approach, as well as your analytics and insights.

BTW - I’ve ALWAYS believed you, although it tends to get me and my family into trouble!

P.S. It’s “martial” law

Believe Cassandra. It’s Marshall.

so, where IS your liquid munny going in the near future, Cassandra?

You should have a shopping list of what you want to buy. You can put in limit orders to pick some up if prices fall say 25%, and then more if they fall 40% etc. You can't really time the bottom, but you can buy when things are cheap. Real asset-related things (materials producers, REITs, EM stocks etc) and high-quality dividend stocks are good places to be. Governments will probably start monetizing debt and depreciating currencies.

This millennial has now been screwed over twice by the economy. Anyway, I know better than to sell anything in my retirement accounts now so I will hold on.

A brief tangent here; but R205, LaGatta; and R200, “cereal poster”on the other thread, “Coronavirus Freakout 14: Quarantine of Solace” speculated on who is “Pierre”. This is me at link.

Please continue after this respite.

Hi R34. I have my money in multiple bank accounts. There’s nothing wrong with having accounts in multiple banks as the limit for FDIC insurance coverage is $250,000. That limit refers to the legal owner in one bank. One account owned by “Randolf” and another in the same bank owned by “Randolf and the Evening Punctuationist” are both insured to $250,000 by the FDIC. But if “Randolf” opens two accounts under his own name alone, and puts $250,000 in both, he is only insured for half-that, $250,000, by the FDIC, if the bank fails.

I also have money in mutual fund that invest in treasuries, Fidelity’s FDRXX, which is not insured.

Then I have a little in Fidelity’s FDMMX that has a goal of tax-free distributions. It was down 2.8% today when the market was down about 10%.

I think I will move more money to the bank accounts.

[quote] My nominal superannuation balance (in Australia) just dropped almost $10,000 from when I checked it two weeks ago (not that I’m retiring anytime soon). I’d like to understand options for the future beyond banks and super

I lost a shit ton of money in 2 days back when Obama first became president and the repugs used to start shit every time the deficit needed to be raised. It sucked. The market would immediately tank. It's a horrible feeling. Unfortunately I had to take money out of my account due to an illness and I lost that money. But the rest of my account recovered

This kind of shit that the repugs pulled when Obama was president is what Democrats need to remember each and every fucking day. And they need to hold their feet on the necks of the repugs and NEVER let up

Oops, I posted R37 in the wrong thread, sorry.

*poof* I was summoned?

Don’t you think it’s really scary when the Governor of NY goes on TV and says that the state can “flatten the curve” to some amount, but not enough to stop the tsunami from rolling right over Long Island? Or words to that effect. He might not have said exactly that.

Welcome back!!! Now, do you foresee a series of significant drops followed by a day or two of “Dead Cat” bounces?

Seems to be the pattern over the last few weeks.

OP, it really was shitty of you to poach posters from another thread that actually came first.

When do you see the market bottoming out, Cassandra? I’m down an entire 25 percent at this point (not counting mutual fund fees which are ridiculously high in Canada). Ouch.

Still not selling, but I guess I should wait to throw in any spare change lying around to buy extra? (I’ve only invested in mutual and index funds, stocks are too risky for me)

And Trump is changing his “It’s just a common cold” song to “This may last into Summer”?

Link to the original thread that already had a discussion going.

“ OP, it really was shitty of you to poach posters from another thread that actually came first.”

Au contraire, mon frere! This is the place where Cassandra is loved and can speak freely, and where one doesn’t have to wade through endless, pointless, and banal posts to bask in her wisdom.

[quote]They say you can’t time the market; however, this collapse was pretty obvious from the beginning. I cashed out of the market

You told us to cash out of the market in 2018. Anyone who followed your advice would have missed the run-up in 2019. The old rule is correct: you cannot time the market.

Figures you're a racist. r48. Nice.

R49 - But if you left your $$$ in the market and didn’t cash out after the 2019 run up, look where you’d be today.

[quote]Please - a month ago 90% of the eldergay posters on any retirement/investment thread were saying NEVER leave the market, it will always go up long term even if there is a dip, you’re a fool to sit on cash.

What we were saying was that it depended on when you needed the money, your age, and your tolerance for risk. If you're not nearing retirement and you don't need the money in the next couple of years, and you have a tolerance for risk, then the advice was, and remains, invest in a balanced portfolio and leave everything alone. Those of us who have ridden out multiple downturns over the past few decades have done very well.

[quote]Now everyone is like “I knew it was coming”.

Well, duh, we did. People have been predicting that the market was overdue for a correction for the past 2 to 3 years. What we didn't know, what nobody knew, was exactly when the bear market would start and what would trigger it.

I'm doing now exactly what I did in 2008: leaving my money in the market and continuing to invest via my 401k and my brokerage account. When, not if, the market comes back, I'll be fine, even it takes a couple of years, as it did in 2008.

[quote]But if you left your $$$ in the market and didn’t cash out after the 2019 run up, look where you’d be today.

You can't time the market. Nobody can time the market.

The other thread has been better on advice.

[quote]I’m a permanent anti-market skeptic. Consistently conservative investor. Never made the big gains everyone brags about. But never lost more than 1-2%

I've been in the market for nearly 30 years, including some years when I lost as much as 30% of my net worth. My overall gain over that time period is about 7.5%, average for a balanced portfolio. I'm fine with that.

[quote] R43: Now, do you foresee a series of significant drops followed by a day or two of “Dead Cat” bounces?

Yes, more or less. The way I would put it is this way: I think the market will still head lower, though there will be false, moderate upticks as things generally head lower. We are beginning to see the start of the worse case - the cessation of commerce except for vitally necessary services only. It can actually get worse, but I’ll not comment on that yet. I, personally, think of the phrase “dead cat bounce” as applying to the one or maybe two initial upticks, before the downward trend is clear, but it is clear now.

R44, OP was not poaching, as I read it, but creating a tribute page and I love him for it!

Posting a link in someone else's thread is poaching.

”Now everyone is like “I knew it was coming”.

Well, duh, we did. People have been predicting that the market was overdue for a correction for the past 2 to 3 years. What we didn't know, what nobody knew, was exactly when the bear market would start and what would trigger it.”

So, what your saying is that the same “Patience” and “Think long term” that is now being preached and put forward as sage advice DIDN’T apply as a prudent strategy when you KNEW the market was overvalued and kept putting money into it?

Patience and long-term planning under such circumstances would dictate that one should cash out and simply wait patiently for the inevitable crash and then get back into the market. That is what I’ve done and the only decision I’ve got to make is WHEN to put my assets back in the market.

No, R59, I'm saying that the same "Patience" and "Think long term" that is now being preached was what I preached 20 years ago, and 10 years ago, and 5 years ago, and last year, and this year. If you don't need the money in the next few years, then leave it alone.

Nobody can time the market. All you can do is have a reasonable strategy and stick to it. The only change I've made in the past few years is that I've moved a bit more towards bonds as I've gotten older and closer to retirement, also standard advice.

Patience and long-term planning dictate precisely the strategy that I've followed, which is why I've done pretty well. Your strategy, as shown in R30, rarely works for the simple reason that you cannot time the market. If you got lucky, congratulations. You beat the odds. As far as I'm concerned, I'll stay with what has worked over the long haul and will continue to recommend the same advice that damn near every financial planner gives.

As for Cassandra, this was a post in October of 2018:

[quote]I’ve been selling piecemeal all year, in anticipation of a worse shake-up, but there really is no knowing. I think we have further down to go, before the end of next year.

Over and over again: nobody can time the market.

[quote] R45/R36: When do you see the market bottoming out, Cassandra? I’m down an entire 25 percent at this point (not counting mutual fund fees which are ridiculously high in Canada). Ouch.

My iPad is acting glitchy so I’ll have to go from memory about when the bottom dropped out, but it is less clear what is going to happen now, than it was then, about 2/20/20. Then, we had an overpriced market; and a clueless and dishonest President, contradicting the CDC, who was telling us “we would need to get used to living a different way”. Does that sound like a good thing? No!

But we are now 30% lower than we were then. Trump isn’t crying “hoax” any longer; and the nerds are ascendant. However, I think the market could fall another 10% to 30% more. It depends on too many factors. You decide for yourself what to do what’s best for you. If I was still in the market, I would sell. But I’m not still in the market.

“Nobody can time the market”, but you don’t need to be Cassandra to see the signs of a huge bubble. Wall Street hadn’t looked like this since 1928-29. Add deregulation, dismantling of safeguards, and inappropriate monetary policies and it clearly spelled DISASTER.

The fact of the matter is that PURE GREED kept most people in the overinflated market of the last 3 years, hoping/trying to squeeze out an extra half-percent profit before the whole thing headed south for years to come. I was satisfied with an annual return of 9% until I got nervous that I would lose not only those returns but principal as well. I pulled out in 2017 and have since “played the dip” successfully twice, but I never got greedy.

Cassandra: when you say the market could fall another 10% to 30%, is that from its current value (i.e. 2,000 to 6,000 points) or from the most recent high (i.e. 3,000 to 9,000 points)?

Seriously, r64. all she is doing is parroting new that Warren Buffet came out with a few weeks ago.

This is where Cassandra is getting her insight

R65 How do you know that Cassandra ISN’T Warren Buffet?

Because she's often wrong and he's not.

R68 LOL!!!

R61, alas, this is my curse, as you’ve actually proved my foresight, Poindexter. Look at what I wrote on March 3 in this thread:

[quote] R10: As for [R4]: listen, bub, I started pulling my money out of aggressive equity investments in small tranches in 2018. I continued into 2019 when I left 50% in equities. My weighted, corresponding S&P selling price was higher than the S&P at last Friday’s close, so although I missed some of the party in 2019, I still enjoyed much of the ride up, and got 100% out of equities in Feb within 5% of the top. And I wrote about it in the other thread, in advance!

So, Poindexter found and reposted my post from October, 2018 saying, that I was selling “piecemeal in 2018” and saw worse coming before Dec 31, 2019. So, instead of the collapse starting 14 months later, it starts 16 months later, and you find fault with that? My post from 2018 and last month are completely consistent, allowing for the 14-16 month variance. And JFC, who do you think I am anyway, a Greek goddess with the gift of prophecy? I’d tell you I am but I know you wouldn’t believe me.

I’d put that record up against anybody with a cherrywood desk at State Street Global Advisors, where I used to work; or JPMI, or Fidelity, where I also worked.

And of course, no one can time the market. Does it really need to be said so crudely? No one can reliably and repeatedly time the market. If they could, the market would figure that out, and Adam Smith’s invisible hand work to counteract that reliability. Unless they are me. Cassandra.

We’re just having fun here, Poindexter. Relax. You might enjoy yourself.

And further proof that Cassandra is not Warren Buffet. She's back pedaling on a bad call in r70.

R71 Cassandra does NOT play nor suffer fools.

Okay, Cassie.

Wow! First people start bitching about Cassandra being “poached” from another thread and then all the Cassandra Haters come over as well.

Take heart, Cassandra! Ad my grandmother used to say: “You’re not anybody until somebody hates you.”

[quote] R65: Seriously, [R64]. all she is doing is parroting new that Warren Buffet came out with a few weeks ago.

Poindexter? Is that you? I wish you would start signing your name so I can know to whom I am addressing. I have to give you the “Listen, bub” treatment here:

Listen, bub: the reason some kind soul created this thread is because I called this bear market down to [italic] the day. [/italic] I still have the glitchy iPad which I foresaw but was too lazy to do anything about, so again from memory only, the market first dropped a huge percent, until that time, and I wrote saying something like, if the market bounced back the next day, it’s normal volatility. If it drops again similarly, it’s the beginning of a correction. The next day, the market fell similarly, and I called a correction. I then predicted a dead cat bounce for the following market day. Which happened next.

Until then, I was about half out of my usual aggressive mix, and I moved almost all-out that week, with some cleanup just afterward.

The OP of this thread created it because he read what I was predicting, as I was predicting it. I think there were a few who noticed and comment here as a result, which was before Buffett’s note.

Incidentally, I did skim something from the “Oracle of Omaha” (ha!), who gets his info from, me, btw, and I read a bunch of pablum, like “oh, no, if you’ve got a good plan, stay where you are, don’t sell.” I told my bocci league that he couldn’t say anything else or he would have created a stampede towards the exit. That would be the end of everything, and in 6 months, there’d be weeds growing through the pavement on Rodeo Drive.

So, no, Buffett’s, fine, I guess, but he’s not where I get my info. I will confess I do read a lot, from varied sources. It doesn’t all appear in my head, fully formed, like the birth of Athena.

Uh huh, sure, Cassie. I also think you created this thread about yourself. Just like Erna typically does with the "Erna" threads.

I just wished more people were taking me serious when I said to stock up on goods. I read about people shopping out there now, and it sounds like the Thunderdome. I’m supplied for maybe another 30 days. By then, everything will be different, though I am sad to say that I don’t think it will be better. Just different.

For Poindexter: Relax, baby, I’ll take care of you.

[quote]The dow keeps sinking because people with good sense see the iceberg coming

People with good sense are not selling at a loss. No sensible person is looking at their 401k and saying, "my portfolio is worth 200k less, so I think I'll sell to lock in those losses." It's speculators and panicking investors who are driving prices down. When the speculators take a breather, all the automatic 401k investments push prices back up. With interest rates cratering, stocks will continue to be where people put their money and that will push up prices.

I think Cassandra and Elderlez are the same person.

Poindexter and Cassandra, with Holly Hunter playing the part of Cassandra:

Thanks, R81, I haven’t seen that yet. I’ll try to catch it. Btw, see R27, LOL!

And I’m not ElderLez. She’s a nice person and I am not! 🤬

As I’ve said before, we are in a situation that has never happened before, so it it difficult to know what to expect from the future. But one thing that was clear to me, weeks ago, was that people would panic. They are fighting over TP and postponing elections, now! But mostly, it was the CDC statement on 2/25 (I think), saying “We will have to get used to a different way of living”. That, coupled with the news, about the same time, that the Chinese shut down their entire country! I know most people are working and can’t follow this closely, but that was [italic] unprecedented. [/italic] There really isn’t a word for it. “Bizarre”, maybe?

That is what initiated my predictions here.

What I see now is very sad. If you doubt, of course you do, listen to Gov. Cuomo’s speech from yesterday. He really drove Trump to get serious.

[quote] R76: Uh huh, sure, Cassie. I also think you created this thread about yourself. Just like Erna typically does with the "Erna" threads.

Of course you do. You are supposed to. That’s how it works.

That is my curse, which you don’t believe, either.

Oh and the other thing, future price of a barrel of oil is now BELOW $30. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Suck it Texaco, Exxon, Chevron, Mobil, Shell et al. And gasoline right now in the Altlanta metro area has sunk below $2. I am fucking loving this. Let the Saudi's and the Russians keep battling it out in the market.

[quote]And gasoline right now in the Altlanta metro area has sunk below $2. I am fucking loving this. Let the Saudi's and the Russians keep battling it out in the market.

And where, exactly, are you going to go using all that cheap gas hmm?

[quote] R15: A reminder that I am an inexpert investor, and past behavior of the market is not indicative of future behavior. Anything you do is your responsibility. You should throughly research any decision to buy, sell, or hold. My predictions are meant for entertainment, only.

Poindexter, you know this is just for entertainment, right? Please don’t take anything personal, bub. All this is just for fun.

[quote] R64: Cassandra: when you say the market could fall another 10% to 30%, is that from its current value (i.e. 2,000 to 6,000 points) or from the most recent high (i.e. 3,000 to 9,000 points)?

Hi R64, I am referencing the most recent high.

Trump had a good presser today. He “acted” very Presidential. He looked ugly as sin, but acted well. I’m sure he got “very good reviews”. Oh, how this disgusts me. I wish he “was” Presidential, not “acting” so. NY Governor Coumo is Presidential, not acting so. Coumo’s speech yesterday was very serious.

I'm thinking this is coming with a multi-trillion price tag...

correct, r89, but “how will we pay for it?” doesn’t apply when corporate welfare is stake.

R90, we pay for it by taking social security away from people, duh.

Cassandra why can't they suspend the Market for a month?

Cassandra - my financial advisor just suggested I move my $600,000 in cash back into the market in small increments each time the market has a TERRIBLE day.

In your opinion, should I move approximately $60K back into the market before it closes today, or should I wait for things to drop even lower before beginning this exercise?

I sold everything the day after the election in 2016. Right idea. Wrong timing. Oh well. At least ai’m in cash as I watch this shit show. One less thing to be anxious about.

Cassandra?? Where the fuck are you?

R93 here. Given the last-minute mini-rally today, I opted NOT to begin buying but wait until we see mid-18,000s.

I understand that we’re having fun here and you’ve put up your disclaimer several times, but I do appreciate your thoughts and input. I fully understand that action I take is of my own volition!

It's far more likely we'll pay for it by printing it.

Smart R96 I'm waiting too

R95, I was napping with the phone ringer off, I’m sorry.

Your advisor is suggesting a kind of reverse “dollar cost averaging” investment strategy. You can google that. It’s the inverse of the method I used to get half-out of the market from 2018-2019. It’s a good methodology, I believe.

I won’t tell you what to do, but I will tell you what I am doing. I am not getting back in the market yet. The automakers are shutting down, which is horrific; and the market will go to automated trading only, which is scary, too! I think it’s too soon. When it is time, that is a good method.

R95, If you got out when I did, which I think you did, you did really well. The market is down 30%-40% from that.

Continued...

Sorry, that would not be [italic] reverse [/italic] dollar cost averaging, it would be actual dollar cost averaging, in R99. I just think it’s too soon or too uncertain right now, to do that. In normal times, it would be a good means of getting back in, though not yet.

Not related to that...I have a worry. Trump simply doesn’t care if the walls come tumbling down a day after his term. He wants glory while he is in office. As R97 says, I am afraid that we might try to print our way out of this. We’ve never done this before so I can’t look to American history for a precedent. I know that is an extreme idea, but I really worry about it. There are many foreign examples of that. I think we could lose our dough through inflation, but we’ll see.

Thanks, C.!

[quote] R92: Cassandra why can't they suspend the Market for a month?

I don’t know. I’ll guess, though. Usually, this kind of thing is not a good idea. There are foreign markets that would beat us up. Then, when our markets opened, what would happen if we had a 10,000 point drop in one day? Pandemonium! The markets closed for a week after 9-11 but that was a different case.

We have four problems, at least: A virus is going to kill, maybe, 4% of the population. The second problem is that they are going to mob our medical system mostly all at once. The third problem is that it’s going to take place over a couple years, in successive waves. The forth problem is the unknown - such as a a mutation that is possibly even worse.

Ugh. Personally, it is wearing on me, that the worst of it seems certain, but it is so slow in coming!

[[quote] R94: I sold everything the day after the election in 2016. Right idea. Wrong timing. Oh well. At least ai’m in cash as I watch this shit show. One less thing to be anxious about.

All the gains since the 2016 election have now been lost. You could have done better, but that’s always true. As of now, you’re in better shape than if you took the ride.

Another one who got out after the 2016 election and finally not feeling guilty and stupid. I’ve lost nothing. I did make a little when utilities went down irrationally last week and then popped back. But definitely not jumping back in now. Waaaay too much volatility and uncertainty.

Agree the automaker shutdown is spooky. We have never seen this before since the Depression. Almost all workers in the restaurant, bar, hair and other service industries immediately unemployed. Historically high levels of personal debt. This has to push us towards a new model of capitalism where the stock market is not the goal of society. Which means corporate profits alone aren’t the measure of successful society.

I think a lot of businesses will learn that they don’t need as many people than they thought, and that a lot of work can be done online. Bad for employees.

I had a job once, where I worked from home the last week I was there. They didn’t want to pay my last week’s salary since I wasn’t onsite. That’s Massachusetts law, or was In 2005. They weren’t required to pay me because I wasn’t in the normal workplace.

R81, I keep rewatching your video post, and laughing. Thanks again.

(I talked with my family again today, and I am upset at their cavalier attitude.)

In February I told my sister that she should cancel her April vacation in Europe. I mentioned that she might not be allowed back into the USA. Now the authorities are starting to talk about just that, and they’re are Americans stuck overseas already. I sounded crazy then. Now, not so much.

Random question: Cassandra, are you an INTJ?

Cassandra also correctly predicted the eruption of Krakatoa, and warned people not to travel on the Titanic.

She predicted high tide at Cabot Cove today, too!

[quote] kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down. Adolf Hitler, on the proposed invasion of the Soviet Union. (Which did not go well for him.)

The authorities aren’t telling us everything. They have already told us to expect a second wave of the Trump Virus, maybe more waves. This virus will be with us for years and they have been trying to make other Coronavirus vaccines and have had no success.

Worst case scenario, of what they may be hiding. I’m speculating:

The virus can reinfect you. Meaning it will kill everybody, eventually, unless you are completely isolated from civilization, including from physical mail and package delivery.

There will be no vaccine.

They are trying to flatten the wave, meaning, most of us will get the virus, but they want the sick to go to the hospital in smaller numbers over a longer period of time, so as not to overwhelm the medical resources. We will mostly need to rely on our own natural immunity for the next two years, at least.

Trump will use this as an excuse to rule as a tyrant. He’ll think people will be too sick and scared of public gatherings to protest. You know he would do so, if he could.

Most of us were already infected in January or February.

What other worst case things?

Other than THAT, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

Oh for the love of God.

If the Black Plague, polio, tuberculosis, AIDS, the common cold, and Madonna's "Evita" didn't kill us all, neither will this.

If you are over-invested in the market, today looks like a good day to sell some or all. We’re up almost 10% today on good legislative news, but I see darker days ahead.

Oops. I bought a little today with my retirement account.

Bought yesterday - made 11% today. This is day traders nirvana.

Cassandra, do we buy gold coins or stocks?

Guessing there will be another big drop tomorrow

Hi R118, tl;dr: “No.”

I personally think Gold is misunderstood. It has particular use if your currency collapses. Such as during WWII, or in various third world countries since.

I do wonder if the US is spending more than it can afford, and there is more spending to come. In such case, the currently could collapse, but I don’t think that will happen.

As for, “should we buy gold”, I think it’s now like a lot of other commodities. My brother, years ago, told me he bought gold, “just in case”. I told him he should have bought turnips. He didn’t understand me, and asked “why?” I said, “Because ‘just in case’, I’ll sell you my turnips for all your gold”. He laughed, like a good sport.

So, my personal plan is that I’m not buying gold. I already have a tiny amount for decorative/artistic reasons, under $20,000. I’m considering selling it, actually, if I’m not too lazy about it.

I bought the linked gold coin in 2017 for $1640 and it now sells for $2240. That’s a profit of $600, or 37% in 3 years, less commission. I should sell, profit-wise, but I like the art.

Incidentally, collectibles get awful tax treatment.

You should all watch HBO’s [italic] “Too Big to Fail”. [/italic] Mid-crisis, a Chinese bureaucrat tells his peer, the US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, that the Russians had approached the Chinese. They suggested they both sell their US Treasury bonds at the same time. The Chinese declined. That would have destroyed the banking system, economy, everything. It would also have destroyed the Russian economy, and their government is more fragile than ours, so it would be very stupid, but people act stupidly all the time.

I recall that Hank Paulson was visually near having a nervous breakdown, then, [italic] for some reason, [/italic] and the man was the former head of Goldman Sachs - no lightweight.

There are also the Arabs and their oil, too. Less of a worry than years ago, but it still is a concern.

Foreign countries have tremendous leverage on us due to our great debt. This is just something of which to be aware. I’m not suggesting any action based on this now.

Oh, R118, I’m not buying stocks either. It is very hard to be patient, and stay in cash, but that’s what I’m doing. Remember that my goal is simply to keep what I have. It’s not to make a killing, so I am acting accordingly.

[italic] “When others are being greedy, be fearful; and when others are being fearful, be greedy.” [/italic]

-Warren Buffett

That is easier to do when you have many millions in reserve.

My longer term expectation is that the market will generally fall further. Trump should be rallying peoples’ natural sense of national patriotism and willingness for shared sacrifice, when encouraged, for their country and brethren, but that’s not happening, so I expect more of a mess.

Cassandra fucked up on her market call for this week. Yet another bad call, Cassie.

Welcome back, Cassandra! We’ve missed you terribly.

Gold will go to 14,000-15,000/ounce -- matching the (eventual) bottom of the market -- just like it did in previous panics/recessions/depressions.

Cassandra , I have about $300,000 invested in mass mutual ,should I worry ? Ill be the first to confess I know nothing about finances , I invested with them on the advice of a very good friend . I have lost about $140,000 due to 2008 ,my original investment was $440,000 . An inheritance ,in case your wondering. This whole situation has me completely freaked out and afraid Im going to lose everything . Should I pull whats left ? the friend who advised me initially has since passed away and I have no idea who else to ask.

Now is not the time to pull out - you already lost the money. Saying you “have lost $140,000 due to 2008” doesn’t make sense. Do you mean you HAD lost? Presumably you made that back in the last 12 years. Assuming you were in index funds.

Check how much you lost since January. Should be about 25%. And check what your money is invested in. If it’s index funds, do nothing .

Im sorry ,I did say Im a numb nuts when it comes to finances. My initial investment was in 2005 ,Im down $140,000 since then . I had a meeting scheduled to discuss all of it but theyve since closed everything so we are going to reschedule when we can. Sadly, I cant tell you what exactly it all invested in . I think real estate is a large part . Im ashamed to admit that I am one of "those" people who just followed advice and havent given it much thought since then. I get a 6% annual check ,and thats about all I know. Thank you for bearing with my idiocy .

Any financial advisor should be able to meet with you virtually or via phone - in a market like this, it’s inexcusable to say “wait until this is over”. It’s also odd that you are down $140k of $440k since 2005. You should be up - - at least flat - no matter what you invested in. You really need to get a basic description of what you are in.

If you are in real estate, that’s a whole different ballgame. This discussion doesn’t even apply, But ultimately the same advice at the end of the day - do nothing. Real estate is much more stable now generally. Even if it’s residential rentals and you may lose some rental income in the coming months, it wouldn’t make sense to sell now.

This entire thread is one big troll post.

R131. You are cordially invited to DRY UP AND BLOW AWAY.

Truth hit a little close to home I see.

Not at all. Just trying to imagine how big a loser you must be to continually visit threads you consider “troll posts” and post pathetic comments on them.

Amused by losers who get financial advice from anonymous Dlers and someone named "Cassandra".

And yet you keep coming back . . .

And yet you keep coming back . . .

Uh, yeah, I said I find it amusing.

[quote] R124, Cassandra fucked up on her market call for this week. Yet another bad call, Cassie.

R124, I didn’t make a market call for the week, you dum-dum. Please start signing your name, otherwise we’ll just have to assume you’re the same guy who was bullish in mid-February and has been wrong time and again this entire time. For Pete’s sake, stop while you’re behind, will you?

Rq27, Mass Mutual company? Or the Fidelity mutual fund? I have some familiarity with both, and I am curious, but you won’t like my answer, I don’t think.

[quote] R138: Uh, yeah, I said I find it amusing.

[italic] Liar! [/italic]

Well, that was an easy one.

btw, there’s another prognosticator on here, which is fine by me, but he’s bullish and I am not, so I wish he would sign a name to identify himself and differentiate himself from me. Delphi, is that you? You don’t return my calls. What’s with that, Bitch?

Yes R140/Cassandra ,Mass Mutual .

R127/R143, funny, my brother worked for Mass Mutual, twice, actually, in a pretty high up position. Small world.

I prefer to stick with very broad predictions, rather than evaluating individual stocks. In general, though, I’m bearish. I frankly don’t think it’s too late to get out of the market, as I see the market going lower. Maybe you should sell a quarter of what you now hold, and leave it in cash for a while? It can be a mistake to move everything in one swoop. (This is why I sold in small quantities, piecemeal, from 2018 into 2019, rather than moving a larger quantity all at once. An exception was when this correction started, because it felt really different, requiring immediate, drastic action, and sold most of my remaining aggressive investments in one move.)

But your biggest worry should be that you ought to have a local advisor that you trust. Someone you can ask these questions of. Now, most of these people would probably have told you from the start to stay put. They’d have a slew of relatively small clients and they can’t give a lot of time and individual attention to each one. Well, whatever. Everybody’s got their own opinion.

That’s my viewpoint.

Thank you dearest Cassandra ! To be totally fair to my advisor , Ive never really reached out and asked her anything after the initial stage . yes,Im one of those stupid old bitches who prefer not to think about such unpleasant matters . I tried when I first invested to have an interest , but quickly became overwhelmed at the amount of knowledge necessary to even remotely be aware . So I just let it slide. As I get my little check every year I just tried to ignore all the fluctuations of the market,etc, but I sure as hell cant ignore this mess. The friend who advised me was fairly well off ,but he died in 2007 . I will give my advisor a call tomorrow and find out how badly I lost and how to go about saving what I have left. Thank you again.

Dear Cassandra, OP here!

First and foremost, THANK YOU once again for continuing to visit this thread and for sharing your fact- and history-based observations and predictions, both short- and long-term.

I missed you last week, but based on info that we exchanged earlier I put part of my cash back in the market Friday a week ago and hauled it back out on Wednesday. I’m now $40,000+ to good, thanks in no small part to you serving as a sounding board and voice of reason during these turbulent times.

I and many others appreciate you sharing your wisdom and experience despite the “skunks at the picnic” who show up periodically.

I hope that you will check in occasionally during the coming week so we can dialogue some more.

R146 ....how?

A nurse acquaintance of mine in S.F. told me 3 days ago that they expect a 2nd wave of younger people coming in...yikes.

This is Cassandra.

No - this is Cassandra

I knew you wouldn’t believe me, Christopher!

Lol. JK - appreciate the good advice. Money to be made in day trading but not a time to be diving in for novices.

Gotta wonder when the banks will start going belly up. I'd love to see for example Citi, CapitolOne and a few others in the dustbin of history.

As if. The people that run the banks run Washington. Famine, pestilence, war are traditional opportunities for economic and social re-sets -- a time when the too-powerful are cut down to size -- but with bail-outs, that will never happen. The country will be bankrupted before criminal entities like Citi, CapitolOne, and Wells Fargo are left to die their well-deserved, miserable deaths.

Yeah, anti-monopoly laws should be used to break up the banks. I understand that bigger businesses can save by scaling; however, at some point, that savings plateaus. It’s like the corona-graph we see. The gains rocket up with size, then stop rising and level off. This applies to every company. I live in a big city, yet my choices are limited for:

Grocery stores

Hospitals

Tech stores

Department Stores, and more

Gas companies

Not so much banks, actually, but some banks have too much power.

[quote] (another poster from another thread): In any case, your herd immunity idea is very weak. Just yesterday it was reported that people in Singapore who had apprently recovered from the virus and since twice tested negative for it are now found still to be infected.

It may be that the tests are faulty, which the CDC has claimed about the WHO test all along, but who knows? If reinfection is possible, this is a disaster. The next question is, is it just those certain people susceptible to infection and illness, that can get re-infected; or can anybody who is exposed to it, and doesn’t get sick (asymptotic), later get exposed to it again, and then get sick from it? Or, are the two strains that are circulating today equivalent to two different hideous diseases circulating at once?

Not to humble brag, but since I’m never believed, I’ll go ahead: I wrote very early on that there was something the government was keeping from us. I wrote that the day before the death rate was revised from ~1% (which is awful enough, btw) to 3.5%-4%, and I hoped it was that. I hope it’s not that the disease can reinfect people, that’s what I’m fearing, because it would be hideous.

(I didn’t want to waste the prediction in a place it will be lost, so also posting it here.)

Welcome back, my dear!

Tonight’s question: To what do you attribute the market’s recent “rally”, and do you believe it is sustainable? My feeling is that both the Treasury Department and news networks have been manipulating the financing and messaging despite the fact it appears we’re headed towards a depression.

As always, TIA!

Thanks, R157!

It’s the dumb money. It’s impatient money. I do not think it’s sustainable. Especially if it is true that people can be reinfected. If that’s true, once the news is widely distributed, we’ll see another drop.

[quote] My feeling is that both the Treasury Department and news networks have been manipulating the financing and messaging despite the fact it appears we’re headed towards a depression.

Agreed, it’s a natural position for them to take, for now. I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom, yet.

[quote]I wrote that the day before the death rate was revised from ~1% (which is awful enough, btw) to 3.5%-4%,

Bill Gates believes it is 1.0 - 1.2%. It only looks higher because of the partial nature of testing and the large number of asymptomatic cases.

R159 - Now why on Earth would Bill Gates, of all people, delve into hypothesizing about a medical/public health matter in which he has no background or training?

It’s not like he has any financial stake in a lower mortality rate . . . Oh, wait . . .

R160, I dunno, geez ... maybe because he runs the largest philanthropy in the world dedicated to improving health?

Just thinking out loud here.

R161 - So if he knows so much about health-related issues, why does the US now have the largest reported number of Corona Virus fatalities in the world - especially on the West Coast where he lives? Glad he’s not my doctor . . .

I’m glad r162 isn’t my doctor.

The Gates Foundation is one of the leaders in the effort to rid the world of Polio. Polio, like smallpox, requires a human host to live. It can be eradicated by vaccination, and herd immunity. (The flu can infect wildlife; birds, pigs, bats, I believe, so can’t be eradicated unless we kill or capture such every infected animal, meaning never.) Smallpox is extinct except in two research labs. One in the USA, and one in Russia somewhere. Polio exists in the wild in only two areas. The India/Pakistan/Afghanistan tribal areas; and parts of Central Africa. Both are conflict zones and hard to access.

Vaccinators have trouble in the I/P/A area because the natives are ignorant and suspicious. Also, the CIA used vaccinators as a cover for when they were surveilling Osama bin Ladin. The natives think the vaccine is a trick for Westerners to make them infertile. Every now and then, you’ll hear about the volunteer vaccinators being murdered.

My Jr. High School teacher had had Polio. He thereafter had the leg braces that “clunked” as he walked, announcing his approach.

I worked with a very nice woman from India. She had a love match, which was unusual as they mostly still have arranged marriages, it seems, but the families approved, so it was ok with all. The problem was, she had an older brother with polio and permanent damage, so he was a bad match, and she wasn’t allowed to marry out-of-turn, until he did. They couldn’t find him a bride, so his younger sister had to wait.

They defend their arranged marriages as superior to love matches; a little defensively, sometimes. Not that I care.

What European country has a good economy? Germany?

And I note this past Monday and Tuesday the price of a barrel of WTI oil was into negative $37. The article I read said they're now storing oil on ocean bound tankers. But there's only so many of them. The article also went on to mention that you cannot just shut off oil production.

So now there's a glut of oil. Nice.

[quote] R30: The earnings of people who stayed in the market through the 2008 collapse eclipsed those who got out and got back in.

Thank you for posting that interesting article, Did I miss something, though?. The author didn’t specifically compare the “buy and hold” strategy with those who got out and back in, or did I miss it?

It was interesting to me that my own investments, completely coincidentally, returned to their pre-crash levels the very same week that the S&P 500 did.

[quote] R168: It was interesting to me that my own investments, completely coincidentally, returned to their pre-crash (high) levels the very same week that the S&P 500 did.

I meant over the 2008/9 crash period. Not recently.

At the link is a presentation regarding a “market low”.

They note that in both the dot-com crash and the Big Crash, the market fell ~50% and took about 2 years to reach that bottom.

The corona crash recession is expected to be more severe than either of these other crashes, The S&P 500 reached its maximum on 2/19/20, and was soon down ~34% at worst. It has since recovered somewhat and is now down only ~16%. Therefore, we might still see new lows to about 50% of the previous “high”, and it might take a couple years to reach bottom.

[quote] What European country has a good economy? Germany?

Genovia.

I think something like this is happening now,with the market. We have a depression anticipated with 20% unemployment. The worst economy predicted in 💯 years, but the market keeps going up. The true-like clip descriptions how the brig banks dumped their troubled assets in 2018 before the market devalued itself.

The market is being propped at a minimal loss so Hedge Funds etc. can switch positions.

This clip complements R172. Both are based on the 2008 financial collapse.

So, in essence, there might be a drop of another 30-plus per cent if history is to be believed. Only maybe more, given the global element of this, and it will take a year or more to play out.

This is just a bit terrifying. I initially came in this thread to complain (naively) about my super loss (up to $20,000 now) and look for advice and am now worried things can only get worse.

Looking ahead, what would be a good investment when the market hits bottom?

Cassie,

Let’s talk inflation and the non farm jobs report tomorrow. Is milk going to be $15/gallon? Will the market tank out tomorrow?

Yale economics professor predicts crash in US dollar.

Yale professor predicts crash in US dollar.

[quote] Is Donald Trump highly likely to resign this year?

This question was posed elsewhere in 2018, and here was my response on August 23, 2018. You’ll note that I predicted that he might lash out internationally, and we just learned that he was or is considering an attack on Iran right now.

[italic] No. In the past, Trump only settled lawsuits or declared bankruptcy when he could convince himself that he was actually “getting something over” on his opponents (or partners). He’s a petty man and enjoys that kind of thing.

Another example of such a thing is his frequent refusal to pay his contractors, even for minute sums.

He is over-sensitive to insults and slights, so the prospect of ouster will only make him dig his heels in. As he gets closer to impeachment or removal for incompetence under Amendment 25, he will conclude that the people have failed him, personally, and therefore do not deserve him, or a peaceful transition. He will resolve to burn it all down, rather than leave for the good of the country. This really isn’t anything new, as he has never placed his country ahead of his own personal gain.

Expect him to continue to try to stir-up his base. He will encourage violence, all while denying he is doing so, just like he has done since he started campaigning. He will escalate his attacks on the Press, the Justice Department, the Democrats, and especially Hillary and Obama. He will try to ally himself with the Police and the Military.

Despite some isolated incidents of violence by the completely brainwashed, he will fail in creating domestic upheaval. I also expect him to try lashing out at some soft targets internationally. Perhaps Venezuela, but also possibly North Korea or Iran. We’ll have to hope his cabinet has him on a short leash, in such a case. [/italic]