Could “Jojo Rabbit” be the surprise Best Picture?

I doubt it. The Academy doesn't like Taika and the woke crowd hates Jews and Scarlett so I doubt it'll be the surprise winner. I'd much rather place my bets on Joker, since Disney will be looking to open the door for superhero movies to win Best Picture so that they can finally snatch that Oscar they've been hungry for since the Eisner years.

Warner Brothers owns Joker, not Disney, dumbass. And Disney won multiple Best Pictures when they owned Miramax.

No, 1917 will be the non-surprise, deservedly.

And Disney owns Jojo Rabbit as well.

Talking to people who know nothing about show business is like talking to children.

“ the woke crowd hates Jews and Scarlett”

WTF does this even mean, the Academy is still 90% old school Hollywood. You think they care what some trans women of color on Twitter thinks? You really are too stupid to live.

Waititi does far better as a writer/director of small human interest comedies, such as those he did back in EnZed. He's out of his element and expertise attempting to helm sweeping sagas.

I think Parasite could be the surprise win, although it may go the route of last year like Roma and will win Best International Picture.

But I'm hoping Parasite will win Best Pic.

However, OP, one thing in Jojo Rabbit's favour is that the Audience Choice winner at TIFF often goes onto win Best Pic, like Green Book did last year. And Jojo Rabbit was the Audience Choice this past year at TIFF.

Jojo Rabbit is a sweeping saga? Are you brain dead? It was a satirical coming of age movie.

R8 = Assumptive ass spewing juvenile pejoratives.

I just watched Jojo Rabbit last night. The part where he’s chasing the butterfly then sees his mother’s shoes kills me. I wasn’t expecting that. Knife to the heart moment.

Jojo Rabbit also has the important Editing Oscar nod - 1917 does not (granted the nature of the film would make that impossible). And it won for Comedy Editing at at Guild awards a few nights ago.

I also wonder if Scarlett could upset Laura Dern - Scarlett played a sympathizer character, a German woman who hid a Jew, while Dern played an unsympathetic bitch lawyer.

1917 or Parasite.

Brutally Honest Oscar voter chose Scarlett for Supporting

I doubt it. It'll be Joker.

Joker can’t win based on the preferential ballot. It’s the Bernie Sanders of the Oscar race. It has its core of rabid supporters who will rank it number one, but it’s no one’s second place choice.

1917 has the Globe, the BAFTA, the PGA and DGA awards and there hasn’t been any considerable backlash to its domination. It’s winning.

La La Land also won all those awards.

It also had a tremendous amount of backlash, R17. Remember how over the top people got about La La Land that season? It was practically painted as Triumph of the Will by the time voting started.

The Revenant also won all those pre-Oscars and still lost Best Picture.

The Academy is very predictable: the actor’s branch is the largest branch and they like to vote for films that are about a group of actors telling a traditional story, they don’t vote for directors’ masterpieces, which is why Mad Max Fury Road, The Revenant and Roma lost BP.

Parasite is over praised. It’s fine. Not incredible. It never really took off. 1917 is winning.

I just watched it.

I enjoyed it, but found its tonal changes very abrupt. Too abrupt.

But the kind who played Jojo was an amazing little actor.

It was very odd.

Scarlett Johansson was good, but acted like she was in an SNL skit.

And it was a weird transition to go from silly, vaudeville Hitler to seeing people from the resistance hanging in the town square.

It was like, "Aaaaaah, look at those people adorable little Hitler got killed!"