Oscar Season 2019 - Part 1: And we're off!

Dear Lord, the Kristen Stewart Seberg movie is opening in Venice. I forgot it existed. She looks better than I imagined.

I hope Antonio Banderas receives his first nomination this year. He should have won for THE SKIN I LIVE IN, which is undoubtedly not considered sufficiently woke these days

What movie of Jane Fonda's is being considered for an Academy Award in 2019?

None. What of it?

Polanski's J'ACCUSE is unsurprisingly receiving mixed reviews, though I'm sure the quality of the film has nothing to do with that.

OP What the FUCK does your poll have to do with Venice or next year's Oscar?

Colossal FAIL

Because there are no front runners yet.

I predict Tarantino will do well.

Best (Supporting?) Actor nom for Brad.

Brad could get two nominations.

r8, I believe Tarantino will do very well. Oscars love him and Once Upon a Time In Hollywood is a really good film.

Looks like he won’t get that second nomination for Ad Astra.

Is Maggie Smith a lock for Supporting Actress for Downton Abbey? She won 3 or 4 Emmys against tough competition. I’m sure Julián Fellowes gave her a fantastic scene or two. And Hollywood and the British film industry adore her.

Will this Jean Seberg have KStew's usual vocal fry?

Downton Abbey needs to be more Gosford Park than Coronation Street if it wants any Oscars.

[quote]The last of the Big Three, The Venice Film Festival has opened, and we're off!

Toronto hasn’t opened yet and Telluride just started yesterday. They’ve been much more predictive of late than Venice or Cannes.

The Oscarbait middlebrow art films go to Sundance, Telluride and Toronto. The high falutin' stuff goes to Berlin and Cannes.

We go to Cannes and Berlin for the cock.

M working it in Venice.

Deneuve is resplendently blonde again!

💁🏼‍♀️👩🏼

Sexy Meryl Streep's Laundromat is in competition. The Volpi Cup is hers.

The Irishman will be at the New York Film Festival.

Maggie Smith has had no Oscar attention since Gosford Park in 2001. She should have been up for The Lady In The Van instead of weasal face JLaw for that mop movie.

Antonio Banderas and Scarlett Johansson may get their first Oscar nominations this year.

As for Jane Fonda, maybe it's a personal thing. Soon after her movies came out and for many years, I thought she was amazing. One of my favorites. I loved her performances in "Horses", "Coming Home", etc. and she could do no wrong. In recent years I've done a few re-watches and can't stand her. Incredibly mannered. People here often mention "Horses" but have you watched it lately? I wonder if it has soured on anyone else like it has me. (although I still love the movie as a whole, especially Susannah York and Bonnie Bedelia). Same thing with Coming Home. I had a hard time getting thru it..... That being said, Klute still holds up for me so I'd rank it number one, Interestingly, I still find her charming and now much easier to take in her comic performances. In Barbarella, she seemed the only player on screen not to be in on the joke, but it worked in the movie's favor. And I still think she is quite lovely and charming in Barefoot in the Park.

I also feel the same way about Jodie. I was thrilled when she won her second Oscar in Silence of the Lambs. Now I find her performance cringy and unwatchable.

Jodie Foster having 2 Oscars and Glennie & Sig with none is a travesty

R26 is Sally Field.

So is M in for Laundromat?

Isn't Renee Z. the one to beat right now?

I think ScarJo makes the most sense right now. The comeback is enough of a reward for Renee, and Johansson feels like the right combination of movie and narrative (Black Widow returns to doing challenging work like her few Oscar close calls).

Marriage Story will probably be this year’s Manchester by the Sea: never really in contention for the win, but a clear favorite in a few top categories anyway.

I initially thought that was Hillary Clinton in OP's photo. Then I realized it was Catherine Deneuve.

I hope ScarJo doesn't steal M's Volpi Cup!

R31 Oh, dear.

R32 she may well do. Laundromat is currently Rotten.

Meryl has a dual role in the film as a Latina character, which isn’t going over well at all. The Academy rubber stamps her for a nomination nearly every time she asks for one, but could this be the one that voters finally reject?

The Goldfinch is going to be the total Oscar flameout of the year, right? It’ll be The Shipping News all over again. Premiering so shortly after its Toronto debut is a terrible sign.

[quote]Meryl has a dual role in the film as a Latina character, which isn’t going over well at all.

The Academy is not actually all *that* woke. The Driving Miss Daisy sequel Green Book won last year and was its Trump-supporting Muslim-hating writer. Anti-Semite drunk Gary Oldman the year before. Anti-Semite drunk Mel Gibson was nominated a few years previously.

That said M’s film is receiving mixed reviews

Golden Lion: Joker, Todd Phillips

Grand Jury Prize: An Officer And A Spy, Roman Polanski

Silver Lion for Best Director: Roy Andersson, About Endlessness; Volpi Cup for Best Actress: Ariane Ascaride, Gloria Mundi; Volpi Cup for Best Actor: Luca Marinelli, Martin Eden; Best Screenplay: No. 7 Cherry Lane, Yonfan; Special Jury Prize: The Mafia Is No Longer What It Used to Be, Franco Maresco; Marcello Mastroianni Award for Young Actor: Toby Wallace, Babyteeth.

Meryl has been robbed!

Saw "Pain and Glory" last night at TIFF. Never had a particularly high opinion of Banderas as an actor, at least not based on his English language filmography, but he is amazing in this, and the movie itself is great as well.

I saw it at my local festival, r39, agreed that Antonio Banderas is fantastic and ought to be a shoo-in for a nomination if he works it hard enough.

Parasite, Waves, The Two Popes, The Lighthouse, Pain And Glory, Judy and Marriage Story are being pushed hard.

Good news: DL Fave Lorna Luft appears in JUDY, played by Lady Mortmont from Game Of Thrones.

There is zero chance that Jennifer Lopez will win Best Actress before Renee Zellweger.

She will receive a Golden Globe nomination only.

Is Gary Oldman getting any buzz for Laundromat? Found him quite funny in the trailer.

Good article about category fraud:

We talk about category fraud every year, but it's not going away... not when there are easy Oscars to be won.

What's everyone's take on Joker? I can't tell whether giving it the Golden Lion yesterday was some sort of political statement, or they genuinely loved the film that much... like it's a genuinely good picture... OR it won simply because of Joaquin. I'm curious.

If I could see one film right now it'd be Marriage Story. I'm hoping Johansson finally gets an Oscar nomination and Driver gets his second.

Waves also looks great.

[quote]What's everyone's take on Joker? I can't tell whether giving it the Golden Lion yesterday was some sort of political statement, or they genuinely loved the film that much... like it's a genuinely good picture... True. Portrait of an Incel? A "good" comic book movie? They just like Joaquin a lot?

[quote] OR it won simply because of Joaquin. I'm curious.

Similarly, the reviews JUDY is receiving indicates it's a very standard British biopic with a stunning turn from Renee Zellweger.

JLo -Hustlers

JLO Dominates!

WILL BE NOMINATED

They pulled that game with Viola Davis in "Fences" at the Tonys too. In the original production Mary Alice won the Tony for Best Supporting Actress. Along comes movie star Viola in the revival and she is nominated for Best Actress. She wins and then makes the movie and is back in the supporting category. She should have won the supporting Tony and Valerie Harper as Tallulah Bankhead should have rightly won Best Actress.

R51 I read here she was nominated in lead at the Tony's as her name was over the marquee. I'm not sure if that's a thing..

Well, going by the reviews in Toronto it looks like The Goldfinch will get a nomination for Cinematography and that’s it. And going by the reviews for Bad Education Hugh Jackman could be up for Best Actor. For playing a gay character.

Roger Michell's BLACKBIRD is being slammed. Another flop for Kate Winslet and Mia Wasikowska plus it stars Susan Sarandon which must please Sasha Stone mightily.

Jojo Rabbits reviews are lukewarm, so that may have a tricky time this season. I don't know that it was up for much realistically speaking... I remember hearing buzz about screenplay and supporting actress, but I don't know about all that.

Critics don’t tend to like Holocaust farce. The Oscars don’t mind it though.

Both critics and the Academy were fine with Inglourious Basterds.

At least one critic wanted Taika to go further with the satire. Some say he played it safe. I don't know... haven't seen it yet.

I think, at some point, the Academy is going to have to contend with category fraud. It's absurd that Brad Pitt is being considered for Supporting Actor in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

The Academy takes a stand when they need to like awarding Kate Winslet Best Actress for The Reader when she submitted that performance for Supporting Actress, but for the most part category fraud happens and it's just part of the political aspect of the awards institution. It just happens. Younger performers are usually relegated to the supporting category, if there are co-leads one will usually submit for supporting, actors who have two highly acclaimed performances have to figure out how to not compete against themselves... studios for the most part want to avoid vote splitting. There are plenty of reasons why they play the game this way. The point, for them, is to win.

I totally get that, r59. None of which makes it right. It's so incredibly unfair to all those actors and actresses in genuine supporting roles who deserve recognition and sometimes could use the status as an "Oscar nominee" to help them get better roles/films.

Yeah, R60. That's not why people watch the Oscars.

I guess I've been watching the Oscars for all the wrong reasons, then.

Brad and Leo are leads in OuaT and should go for lead.

[quote]I read here she was nominated in lead at the Tony's as her name was over the marquee. I'm not sure if that's a thing..

If your name is not above the title you are usually not nominated for lead. She wasn't on the marquee at all.

Will Jennifer Lopez be pushed for Lead or Supporting? I haven't seen the film yet, but I was surprised when listening to a podcast earlier that positioned her as Supporting and not Lead.

You think that ego, who also produced would go for supporting? She'll probably get a Golden Globe nod and snubbed by Oscar.

R65 Which podcast were you listening to? I love awards podcasts.

Also, I've heard that JLo's supporting, or rather critics have predicted her to appear there. If I were her, I'd be thankful for whatever buzz you've got and play it safe as fuck. Go for the Mary J. Blige supporting nom... not the Gaga lead one. The Academy doesn't know you like that. Or maybe they do... she's always presenting.

It's always been weird to me how Lopez always shows up and gets attention at The Oscars when she hasn't had a decent movie in 20 years and has had very little acclaim. Anyway, hope this is a success for her!

Does she do nudity in the film?

It's always been weird to me how Lopez always shows up and gets attention at The Oscars when she hasn't had a decent movie in 20 years and has had very little acclaim. Anyway, hope this is a success for her!

Does she do nudity in the film?

It’s not hard to explain. She’s a big name who will show up to present even the least interesting category and she’ll always have a look that turns heads on the red carpet. I don’t think it’s that Academy members like Lopez (her reputation is mostly terrible), it’s that the producers of the Oscar show do, and for good reason.

[quote]Does she do nudity in the film?

She might look good but Honey those are still 50 year old tits.

I like JLo, don't get me wrong. But isn't she playing a version of herself in Hustlers? I guess that's ok still for a nomination, but...

Joaquin is going for the win!

Is it confirmed if Judy/Renee will go musical/comedy or drama at the Globes? I'd laugh if Jlo bagged it on her second career nomination (last one was 1997!)

I was surprised she didn't at least give her a nom for that Cop series she did, they normally fall over movie stars doing television.

Is it confirmed if Judy/Renee will go musical/comedy or drama at the Globes? I'd laugh if Jlo bagged it on her second career nomination (last one was 1997!)

I was surprised she didn't at least give her a nom for that Cop series she did, they normally fall over movie stars doing television.

Who the Hell knows, none of these were actually musicals or comedies. The characters only sang onstage.

Diana Ross Golden Globe Nominee Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama -Lady Sings the Blues (1972)

Barbra Streisand Golden Globe Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical A Star Is Born (1976)

Liza Minnelli Golden Globe Nominee Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical New York, New York (1977)

Deneuve is a really good looking old lady, a GILF. I think she smokes, though.

Marion Cotillard won Actress in a Comedy/Musical at the Globes for La Vie en Rose right? It wasn't until Lady Gaga submitted in Drama.

My question, would Gaga have won in Comedy/Musical against Olivia Colman?

J.Lo has a good shot at the Oscar. The Academy frequently rewards actresses who play whores.

I read that Jlo’s character is basically a supporting role to Constance’s. I think both will be nominated and possibly win the Golden Globes. But only Jlo will be nominated at the Oscars BSA.

I read a review that mentioned two key sequences that are shown from Constance's POV, so I suspect she's the lead character, with everybody else supporting.

Be careful with those “she will DEFINITELY win!” predictions:

J.Lo isn't getting shit at the Oscars. Nada.

You heard it here.

I heard same thing with Gaga last year R83. I’m not a fan of Jlo but I think she’s a better actress than Gaga.

Yes, but that was A Star is Born, which was groomed for Oscars, not some bullshit fake titty heist movie.

Well this bullshit fake titty heist movie seems to be getting a lot of genuine buzz. Whether that'll materialize in anything the Academy's into, who knows, but people were definitely calling bullshit on Lady Gaga's Oscar chances right up until she walked away with the award.

We gotta keep in mind that it's still early in the race. At this point last year First Man seemed to be a surefire bet... BEYOND surefire... looking back it wasn't nominated for any major awards, so we'll see what happens in the end.

[quote] Well this bullshit fake titty heist movie seems to be getting a lot of genuine buzz.

I'm not sure you know how to recognize genuine buzz vs. manufactured press.

Will J-Ho simulate sex with the Oscar during her acceptance speech?

[quote]I'm not sure you know how to recognize genuine buzz vs. manufactured press.

People were literally saying the same thing last year after A Star is Born premiered. Certain users kept harping on about how the press was manufactured, and the film was a hit that did very well at the Oscars. Whether Hustlers is as good as A Star Is Born isn't the point so much as the fact that sometimes buzz actually is genuine, and people genuinely like a performance.

[quote] People were literally saying the same thing last year after A Star is Born premiered.

Yes, dear, and they were right. All the press that came out about ASIB from Toronto last year was absolutely manufactured and it ultimately hurt the film's Oscar chances. It was pitched so high, so early, that it created a huge backlash and the film won one minor Oscar. And Cooper wasn't even nominated for Best Director. Hell, it even flopped at the Golden Globes.

We'll have to get thru TIFF to have beginnings of a real conversation, but some front runners (so far):

lead actor: Phoenix (The Joker), Bale AND Damon (FvsF), Bandaras (Pain & Glory), Driver (Marriage Story), DeNiro (The Irishman), DiCaprio (OUaTIH), Hanks (Mr. Rogers film), Sandler (buzz for Uncut Gems), Eddie Murphy (buzz for the Dolemite project) lead actress: ScarJo (Marriage Story), Zellweger (Judy) BSA: JLo (Hustlers) BSA: Tracy Letts (FvsF), Bale (again FvsF, category fraud but they may take him out of lead for a better shot), Pitt (OUaTIH - odds on fave)

From Vanity Fair:

At Saturday night’s premiere, Lopez’s electric onscreen entrance—a striptease set to Fiona Apple’s “Criminal”—was met with mid-film applause. As the credits rolled, the 2,500-plus audience members inside Roy Thomson Hall also jumped to their feet for a standing ovation that lasted through the credits.

In his review, Richard Lawson praised Lopez’s performance as “some of the best acting work of her career” and declared the film “one of the best movies about American money in recent memory.” That was but one rave to surface from the festival; the Daily Beast bluntly asserted that “J. Lo Should Be an Oscar Contender for Hustlers.” IndieWire proclaimed her “genuinely deserving of awards consideration.” And Variety wrote, “If there’s any justice, Jennifer Lopez will receive her first Oscar nomination for channeling the ringleader Ramona as Erin Brockovich by way of Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike.” Toronto audience members also excitedly took to Twitter to crown her with their own awards-season nominations.

Trying this again at r91:

lead actor: Phoenix (The Joker), Bale AND Damon (FvsF), Bandaras (Pain & Glory), Driver (Marriage Story), DeNiro (The Irishman), DiCaprio (OUaTIH), Hanks (Mr. Rogers film), Sandler (buzz for Uncut Gems), Eddie Murphy (buzz for the Dolemite project)

lead actress: ScarJo (Marriage Story), Zellweger (Judy)

BSA: JLo (Hustlers)

BSA: Tracy Letts (FvsF), Bale (again FvsF, category fraud but they may take him out of lead for a better shot), Pitt (OUaTIH - odds on fave)

I thought I read that Hanks would be going the Supporting route since Matthew Rhys plays the lead character -- the movie is about how Mr. Rodgers affects him.

Oooh, Vanity Fair. Well, the race is over. Call it!

Well, then, how about The Washington Post:

In a year of spectacular comebacks — from Brad Pitt and Renée Zellweger to Jamie Foxx and Eddie Murphy — none is as purely, sensationally pleasurable as Jennifer Lopez’s commanding lead performance in “Hustlers,” a sexually charged caper flick that bumps, grinds and pays giddy homage to sisterhood and shameless venality with equally admiring brio.

...[Lopez] makes a magnificent entrance in “Hustlers” with an athletic, graceful and erotic dance number, and never lets go from there. Once again, she proves what an instinctive, spontaneous actress she is, infusing Ramona with her own Bronx-born street smarts, and carrying herself with the feline regality she’s acquired over a nearly 30-year career as one of the entertainment industry’s most gifted triple threats. In this raunchy, gloriously liberated revenge fantasy, Lopez rules with seductive, triumphant authority. Not only do we climb into her fur, we’ll happily follow her anywhere.

You don't read so well, R96.

Manufactured.

Press.

If you think studios don't pay for "enhanced" reviews in this day and age, I have a bridge to sell you. Newspapers are on their last gasp.

Variety:

Jennifer Lopez has been a frequent presenter at the Oscars, but she could be heading into the 2020 Academy Awards as a first-time nominee. She’s getting the best reviews of her career for her work as Ramona, a longtime stripper who hatches a scheme to scam Wall Street types out of their money.

Lopez could be this year’s Lady Gaga, but STX has its work cut out to get to voters watch “Hustlers” and understand that the movie isn’t just another “Striptease” or “Showgirls.”

Lopez would likely be put up for supporting so she wouldn’t have to compete for lead against contenders like Renee Zellweger (“Judy”), Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story) and Meryl Streep (“Laundromat”).

[quote]Yes, dear, and they were right. All the press that came out about ASIB from Toronto last year was absolutely manufactured and it ultimately hurt the film's Oscar chances.

The only person whose Oscar chances were hurt was Bradley in the directorial category. He was still nominated for three high profile Oscars that year. The buzz from First Man fizzling would be a better argument against JLO than A Star is Born, which, by all means, did very well at the Oscars.

At this point, we're just talking about a nom for JLO, not for her to take home the statue.

r97, you're sounding like Sasha Stone when she was adamant, I tell you, absolutely positive there was NO WAY IN HELL that Diane Lane would be nominated for Unfaithful. And look what happened.

Yes, I know there is manufactured press, but I've been following the Oscar crap for 3 decades now and I can spot faux hype from real hype. The hype (ie, genuine critical acclaim) for Lopez's performance is real. Now, whether she'll actually be nominated, at this point, nobody knows. Yes, A Star Is Born is a perfect example -- it started out as a sure thing then ended up with only 1 Oscar, because other films and other performances came along stole its thunder. That could very well happen here. Or, not. Who knows? Nobody.

Sasha Stone is a certified moron.

Sasha Stone isn’t a moron but when she’s on her high horse there’s literally no getting her off it.

[quote]I'm not sure you know how to recognize genuine buzz vs. manufactured press.

What genuine buzz is there to the Oscars now? 95% of the acting nominees are from manufactured press and PR agents pushing them as a lock for a nomination months before the movie even opens.

Have you been in a cave the last twenty years? Does the name Harvey Weinstein ring a bell?

It's not inconceivable that JLo could get a nomination. This isn't the 90's anymore when AMPAS seemed to be bunch of prudes aghast at considering someone like a Madonna or a Courtney Love for their prestigious award. They nominated Gaga and Mary J. Blige in the last two years. If the buzz for Jennifer Lopez is good, she could easily be a contender. Shit, McBongo got an Oscar and he's turned out far more shit than Lopez ever has.

Hold onto your hats too, because Eddie Murphy might get another nomination as well.

Why not JLo? If the movie and performance are as good as they are saying it is, and the movie makes bank (it seems well on its way to do so, we'll see) a nom is as good as a lock, esp if the field remains wide open as it is right now in early stages.

She's a double threat (music, movies) talent who's been in the business 25 years. She's done good work in the past, Hustlers marks a return to form ie, everyone knew she had it in her she just needed the right role, script and director.

And she'll bring ARod to the Dolby. Ampas will pay to get them in the front row if necessary, trust.

It'd be one of the unique, fun, and surprising narratives this season. I'm for it.

R78 I don't think so. Olivia had built up quite a following

Sasha Stone banned Susan Sarandon from her site after she supported Jill Stein because "shit runs both ways". Sasha didn't ban Viggo Mortensen for the same thing because she masturbates regularly to him.

There's plenty to criticise Susan Sarandon about but the idea of Oscar-winning, international sex symbol Susan Sarandon giving one fuck about from being blocked from the comments section of Awards Daily is too funny for words.

I think it is Willem Dafoe’s movie, but if RPattz got a nomination for The Lighthouse before Batman WB would be chuffed.

I'd argue that Pattinson's got the heat... he's pretty beloved at this point in his career... all he needs is the proper performance to sneak him into a nomination. If it doesn't happen this year, it may happen within the next two. He's become a very interesting actor.

In terms of work, Pattinson and Stewart are working with better people than the Hunger Games kids.

[quote] As the credits rolled, the 2,500-plus audience members inside Roy Thomson Hall also jumped to their feet for a standing ovation that lasted through the credits.

Honey it was the premiere with the entire cast present. It's what they do and no one leaves until the final credit rolls. This means absolutely nothing.

Yeah, you always gotta keep in mind that most films get ovations at festivals, where excitement is so high that opinions can get skewed. All we know is that they appreciated the film.

I can't stop thinking about how mid90s premiered last year to rapturous applause and reviews as well, and no awards body cared for it last year, despite its high profile. I can see Honey Boy potentially going this route.

Thank God-it looks like Cynthia Erivo won’t be getting awards consideration from Harriet.

J-LO! J-LO! J-LO! J-LO! J-LO! J-LO!

Will Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams gets nods for Actress and Supporting Actress After The Wedding? The film was a box office flop but performances were praised.

^ for After the Wedding ...

Maybe academy voters will remember the original with Mads Mikkelsen.

This J-Lo Oscar buzz on every show she goes on might backfire, members are going to tire of it.

ScarJo vs Renee

Team Renee

Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams have as much a chance at getting nominated as Kidman, Roberts, and Ejiofor had a chance at getting nominated for their Secret in Their Eyes remake. Not happening, and people have already forgotten that both were released.

J-Lo could receive some backlash against the praise, or not receive backlash at all and still get snubbed. But... on the other hand, she might ultimately get nominated. It's too early to make any definitive statements as past narratives both work in favor and against her, but at the moment I'd say her chances are looking solid.

Renee and Scarlett are interesting frontrunners. One, an actress whose career seemed to peak in the early 00s, and another who's been Oscar-adjacent a couple of times, and perhaps even should have been nominated for Lost in Translation. Her best performance is in Her, and I've always felt like Hollywood had no idea how to properly use her, but it seems like Baumbach has.

If the hustlers is a huge box office hit (which is likely), Jlo should be a shoo-in for bsa nomination. But yeah , it will be a hurdle for her to win. Heck, that Biatch Wu might even snag BA nomination. Realistically at the GG.

Just finished listening to Vanity Fair's Little Gold Men podcast and their early predictions were as follows:

Best Actor: Adam Driver in Marriage Story

Best Actress: Renée Zellweger in Judy

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 of those actually happens.

ScarJo has too much baggage from all her controversial recent statements. Renee for the win there, unless another front-runner comes by in the coming months.

I like r124's choices except for Driver. He may very well get a BA nom, but can't see him winning over older more established types like Bale, DiCaprio, even Bandaras - who while uneven, has a long history in Hwood.

Yeah, Brad, r124. I never stop laughing at the standing ovation his post-separation Golden Globes appearance caused. They really love him.

He's probably owed an Oscar for hanging in their all those years with his looks alone.

Yeah, Brad, r124. I never stop laughing at the standing ovation his post-separation Golden Globes appearance caused. They really love him.

He's probably owed an Oscar for hanging in their all those years with his looks alone.

What was funny about it r126? He deserved the applause. Three decades of work in show business, many of them as a celebrated producer of brilliant films that had employed many in that room. Plus was coming off a major smear campaign from his nutjob ex that threatened his personal stability and his reputation. Many were pleased to see the positive response to him.

[quote] He may very well get a BA nom, but can't see him winning over older more established types like Bale, DiCaprio, even Bandaras - who while uneven, has a long history in Hwood.

I don't know about that. Rami Malek just beat Bale last year. I don't think being established has anything to do with it unless that's specifically a part of your narrative (Freeman for Million Dollar Baby), but even then it doesn't always work (Glenn Close in The Wife).

Driver's an exciting actor who's worked with just about every major director out there. He's extremely well regarded, and if his performance in Marriage Story lands as well with the Academy as it has with the critics, then his chances are very high. I don't think anyone's predicting a win for Leo, and isn't Bale supporting in Ford v. Ferrari? Also, Banderes is just hoping to get recognized at all.

Driver is great and will eventually win an Oscar but don't equate his chances to Malek's last year. Bohemian Rhapsody was a humongous international hit, Malek's performance was the standout and carried the whole film. Plus he had an interesting timely personal narrative going along with it all, and good pr. Driver's movie will be much smaller $- and impact-wise.

If Phoenix is nommed he will be very hard to beat, The Joker is getting raves and he's considered "overdue" in terms of his nom-to-win ratio. He would absolutely best Driver. And don't ever mark Bale off, he's almost annually nominated and many think he should have won last year for Vice.

I wouldn't even discount Adam Sandler either, if Uncut Gems gets traction and does decent box office. It's a very flashy performance in a flashy movie, and despite his poor acting output he's made tons of money for his film industry backers over the past 25 years - all those stinkers made a lot of money for a lot of people. That counts for a LOT of votes believe it or not.

Yeah, agreed about Phoenix being the clear frontrunner. I just don't buy Banderas or DiCaprio as threats, and I'm not marking Bale off... I've just heard that he'll be competing in the supporting category, and therefore has nothing to do with Driver's chances.

Ultimately I'd be happy with either Phoenix or Driver winning. Phoenix should have won for The Master, but no one was beating Day-Lewis that year.

I think Michelle Williams will be a surprise nominee for After the Wedding for the Golden Globe and the SAG Awards but not for the Oscars.

It opened in August and disliked by critics. It'll be a forgotten remake that kept Julianne Moore's husband employed.

[quote]He's probably owed an Oscar for hanging in their all those years with his looks alone.

Brad Pitt already has an Oscar for producing the Best Picture winner "12 Years a Slave" (2013)

R131 = Lynn Stairmaster. Have you even seen any of the movies or performances you supposedly feel so confident about? I guess they haven't reached the local cineplex in Bumfucke, IA just yet.

I haven't really said anything different than what other prognosticators have said. Don't know why you're coming for me.

Moore could be a contender for Gloria Bell. Not a win but a nomination.

Last year was a weak year for Best Actor. Bale playing Dick Cheney? Nobody wanted to give an Oscar to Dick Cheney. Cooper was deserving but lacking sympathy, I guess. Malek's win was an award for BR doing $900M at the global box office - nobody blamed him for the film's success but it was the music of Queen that pulled in the numbers. Malek will never get near a podium again and will probably end up washing dishes in homeless shelters like Adrien Brody.

Gloria Bell was a hit as opposed to After the Wedding and I guess if Meryl can get nominations for crap so can Julianne.

Driver is amazing in Marriage story. He gives a shattering performance and manages to elevate Scarlett in the process. He is a bad campaigner though. The poor guy schleps around all the parties and events but can’t seem to win votes. It must have killed him to lose throughout last year’s season and the Tony’s too. He may act humble but he is coldly ambitious. There is also the Gertwig factor. Noah is living with a woman who annoys everyone she meets. He better leave her at home during his campaigning. She is a complete pill.

Is Marriage Story about how he cheated on Jennifer Jason Leigh?

Lucy in the Sky got panned. Looks like another Vox Lux for Natalie.

The plot for Marriage Story - what a dumb generic title - is a stage director and his actor wife struggle through a gruelling, coast-to-coast divorce that pushes them to their personal and creative extremes.

Uhhhh, R133, did you see The Wife? That movie sucked and didn’t do well at the box office. Williams’ performance has been widely acclaimed as a master class in good acting. And actors went nuts over her in Fosse/Verdon. She could be a double nominee at the SAG Awards.

I actually liked After the Wedding more than most, but it has no chance at the Oscars. Williams will probably get a major award or two for Fosse/Verdon, but that’s it for her this year.

And after seeing Hustlers, I’m feeling confident Lopez isn’t making it in, even though I liked the movie and her in it more than I expected. I’ve read the comparisons to how voters nominated Mary J. Blige, but she was in a Dee Rees movie that was perfectly in line with traditional Academy tastes, and had Netflix money to fund her campaign. Hustlers is just too trashy, and it hurts Lopez that she’ll be the only push for the movie, which usually puts movies toward the bottom of the screener pile.

Add in her bad reputation, possibly category confusion and a studio whose Oscar history high point is earning Molly’s Game a Screenplay nod and nothing else, and Lopez has all the markings of an Oscar contender who gets every precursor then becomes the big snub.

The Oscars don't realise movies are a niche, not the height of cultural interest anymore. They certainly remain the height of glamour but that's about it.

So having Seth McFarlane and James Franco and Kevin Hart host make no difference.

Adam Driver is a "good" actor - but entirely predictable. He's very tasteful and I prefer a touch of trash in my movie stars.

Did you watch Girls? He's plenty trashy in that show.

He was a trashy hipster user in Baumbach's earlier While We're Young.

Also a trashy hipster in Frances Ha.

You don't get it. We hate GIRLS, but the critics loved it, as they love Baumbach. I would find him more palatable if he had to go through his paces in something really trashy low brow and corny and messy and SILLY, like a Marc Lawrence comedy or a Tyler Perry production or if his beloved blockbuster franchise was The Fast And The Furious instead of Star Wars.

But he made his film debut with Clint Eastwood, closely followed by Baumbach, Spielberg, Coens, Curran, Abrams, Nichols, Jarmusch, Scorsese, Soderbergh, Lee, Gilliam and Carax. I mean for fuck's sake. I am sure most people would see his filmography as flawless and incredible; I find it has a lack of personality.

"Hustlers" will come out on Blu-ray in December just in time for nominations so TV commercials will be everywhere reminding the Academy Lopez is Streep with a stripper pole now.

r141 Vox Lux was actually pretty good as was Portman. Don't recall it getting panned like Lucy in the Sky is now.

I've been stanning JLo for a nomination all over this thread but r144 makes a salient point re STX and their inability to mount a proper campaign, even when they put out viable product. The counterpoint to that is they don't have to do most of the heavy lifting here, since Lopez is a self-contained pr machine all her own and will probably carry the bulk of her own push.

re Driver: what's up with his marriage? I've heard everywhere its been a sham for a while. Will he bring his wife to everything to keep up appearances for awards season -? What is supposedly up with him and Charlize, lots of rumors there.

Quite underwhelming reviews for Hustlers today. I guess Lopez could still score a nomination but she is so intensely loathed by the film community she’ll never win.

Scarlett Johansson, Renee Zellweger, and Alfre Woodard are pretty much set for Best Actress nominations. Cynthia Erivo has been hurt by the mixed-to-negative response to "Harriet" at TIFF, and drops to "a possibility" status.

For the men, Joaquin Phoenix, Leo De Caprio, and Adam Driver appear to be set. Brad Pitt a shoo-in for a Supporting Actor nomination, and probably for the win, too.

Shia LaBoeuf is now considered a candidate for his film.

Phoemix, Driver, DiCaprio, Bandaras, and Eddie Murphy for best actor - for now, the season is still ongoing.

Saw Hustlers earlier today. It's an entertaining film. I don't think I'm as passionate about Lopez's performance as certain critics are, but I thought she did a great job. She certainly is a stunning woman. If she were nominated I wouldn't mind, as lesser performances have been nominated in the past, but if she ultimately weren't I wouldn't be surprised. Parts of me wish they'd given her a bit more to do... gotten a bit darker, but otherwise, good performance.

Ooh... fun little anecdote. There's a revealing shot of Lizzo in the film, and the old white lady sitting next to me covered her eyes.

Lizzo plays a sex worker?

I'm not going to see this Hustlers crap. When I heard Lizzo was starring, I auditioned myself but was never called back!

Lizzo's barely in the film.

R154? Alfre Woodard? A lock...? Be serious. I love her but...a lock? A contender, maybe. I don't think she's ever been a lock or even could be.

As with the Hustlers reviews, film festival reactions are very different from real world/audience reactions. A collective shrug for Judy could scupper Zellwegger's chances completely.

Judy is this year’s Jackie.

Wait till you've seen it, r164. Right now you have no idea what you’re talking about. PS: you can try all you want, but you’ll never make that meme happen.

You’re not the only one to go to festivals dear but you’re right, Jackie was a better film.

You can try all you want, but you’ll never make Judy happen r165.

Indiewire says Don't Believe the Hustlers Oscar Hype. It's bullshit.

I want Marriage Story right now. I'd also like to see Ford v Ferrari.

The Downton Abbey movie is FANTASTIC! Really hits the sweet spot and looks great. She won’t win but Maggie Smith is a likely shoo-in for BSA. Costumes too.

Add Best Cinematography and Best Art Direction-Set Decoration.

I wonder if Roger Deakins could still get a nomination for cinematography for a massive bomb like The Goldfinch.

The Goldfinch is deader than a doornail, crap reviews and it will die at the bo. Double poison to Ampas voters for anything.

Roger Deakins has Sam Mendes' 1917 coming out this December that he'll likely get a nomination for considering everything that's been reported on how they're doing the cinematography. He could be nominated for both, as he's been double nominated in the past, but if the Academy prefers 1917 to The Goldfinch, then I can see them nominating him for the former.

R173, the Academy is pretty much guaranteed to prefer 1917 to the wretched The Goldfinch.

[quote]She won’t win but Maggie Smith is a likely shoo-in for BSA. Costumes too.

I’m not sure I believe Maggie Smith will get nominated, but they’ve certainly stacked the deck with all her witty lines and then her big scene at the end.

If she were nominated would it be the first time someone was nominated for both an Emmy and an Oscar for playing the same character?

Also, will Downton Abbey be seen as anything other than a glorified TV movie by the Academy?

Indiewire Article about Category Fraud...

I thought The Goldfinch was even better than Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Look for it to score Oscar gold!

The problem with Downton is the TV hack director. Gosford Park had Robert Altman. The scene with the servants stealing a blissful moment away to listen to superstar Ivor Novello perform while the philestine aristocrats are bored is one of the best scenes of the previous decade, and I don't even like the movie all that much. It's a love letter to pop culture and the power of the movies.

Can you imagine how prosaic the same scene would be on Downton Abbey.

[quote]Also, will Downton Abbey be seen as anything other than a glorified TV movie by the Academy?

I saw it the other night. The movie takes full advantage of the giant screen, and there are a couple of visually thrilling scenes. Although a lot of it is interiors, it's definitely more cinematic that the TV series was. If you're a fan of Downton Abbey, the movie is terrific. I really only see it getting nominations in the usual technical categories, costumes, set design, perhaps cinematography (though not, probably, with 1917 around, which is visually stunning in the trailer). Dame Maggie being Dame Maggie, I guess it's entirely possibly she could get a nomination. For most of the movie it's "same old, same old" Violet quips, but then she has something juicy to chew on towards the end.

Saw Clemency at TIFF this morning. Great film. Alfre will most likely be nominated. Crazy that she's only been nominated once in her career - way back in 1983 for Cross Creek.

But the supporting actors are as deserving especially Aldis Hodge and Danielle Brooks.

Amazed that Constance Wu got top billing for Hustlers in the preview I saw before It Chapter 2.

She's been in ONE movie.

Jojo Rabbit wins Audience Award at Toronto. Surprising, no, considering the mixed reviews.

Interesting. Marriage Story and Parasite were the runners up.

Scarlett is having a banner year. Starring in the biggest box office of the year, and two critically acclaimed films.

The Guardian has a good article about the Oscar race, based on the major festivals.

R185 Yep. Marriage Story is supposedly the best work of her career, so it would be just like the Academy to give her the statue for Jojo Rabbit instead

I Ike Scarlet and hope she wins her first Oscar.

I like Scarlett too but I think her recent comments might work against her.

But I respect the fact that she has her own mind and speaks it - whether you agree with her or not.

[quote]I like Scarlett too but I think her recent comments might work against her.

If anything it’ll help her. What people say publicly and what they think privately are two different things, especially when voting.

Besides nothing she’s said is nearly as bad as what Affleck and Oldman were accused of, and they both won. It’s going to be a very shitty and obvious double standard if her opinions are given more weight then those actors’ actions.

What does Dame Maggie get to chew on at the end?!

That would be a spoiler, r191. It’s a lovely scene, though.

Saw Ad Astra. Very good film. I think it's got strong chances for Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and possibly Cinematography, Production Design, and Original Score.

R193, but not Actor? I was thinking the five nominees might be Joaquin, Adam, Tom, Leo, and Brad.

People were asking about campaigning. This is an example, keeping her name out front.

I don't see Brad getting in for actor... I mean... maybe depending on how weak the category is, but I thought he was much more captivating in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but he is good in Ad Astra. It's a subdued performance though, and I'd argue that the film's technical achievements outweigh its performative or narrative ones.

I watched Hustlers today. It was an enjoyable popcorn movie, but I’m puzzled by the critical acclaim for it and for Jennifer Lopez’s performance. It felt like a very basic, slick Hollywood movie. Nothing special.

But she has Oscar buzz! OSCAR BUZZ!

Funny R196, most people would say Ad Astra succeeds on its “performative” and narrative elements and not so much its technical elements, which certainly don’t break any new ground much less meet standards previously set by films like Gravity, First Man, Interstellar, Arrival, etc. Pitt will be nominated as both Best Actor and BSA.

The film is good but no masterpiece; I thought it suffered from the casting of Tommy Lee Jones as the father. There are so many less well known actors they could’ve cast in that role who would’ve given it much more mystery. Using old stills of Tommy Lee in Space Cowboys about sums up the tech elements of Ad Astra. It’s Pitt’s performance that intrigues and makes it watchable even if, in a few moments, it’s like watching Rusty from Ocean’s in space.

Just saw The Farewell. What a dull film that was! Why would anyone think this was Oscar-worthy fare? The script is go nowhere terrible. In China, apparently, they don’t tell people when they have cancer. The whole thing was so opaque and dull. I certainly wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who has gone through a cancer diagnosis (either as a survivor, family or friend). They’re like, “In America, this is illegal.” Hell, in America it’ll bankrupt you while they pump you full of toxic radiation that’ll kill you faster!

Awkwafina for Best Actress? C’mon, I like her but there’s nothing particularly great about her performance - there’s nothing on the page to play!

All Oscar conversation about The Farewell should end here!

I don’t think I can do the Judy movie. Every time I see the trailer at the cinema it looks more and more terrible. You mean to tell me the Academy is going to give this squinty-eyed bitch an Oscar for cashing in on Judy’s legacy after they denied the real Garland an Oscar for one of the greatest performances ever committed to film?!

Ok, Renee is probably really nice but still. I just can’t.

R200, I liked it OK but that ending was a WTF. It pissed me off. Why should we invest in the story if the rug gets pulled out from under us in the final shot?

To me, the whole idea that someone would have cancer and only know it if someone else told them was so stupid. Cancer ravaged your body - you would know SOMETHING was wrong. I kind of found it offensive. And the idea that 6 years later she was still alive - obviously a false diagnosis. What were we supposed to have invested in that story? And people saying that grumpy bitch grandma deserves a BSA nomination? Just stop with this shit. Please.

Michelle Williams’ Emmy win and speech will go a long way to getting her at least a SAG nomination for After the Wedding.

Shut up about After the Wedding! You're literally the ONLY person talking about that film while the very idea of it is frantically escaping everyone's minds!

The extravagant praise for The Farewell strikes me as a critics' example of woke virtue-signalling -- here's a competently (if dully scripted) American film portraying a segment of the population that is rarely featured, so they go overboard in their praise.

No, YOU shut up, R205! Williams gave a master class in acting in that film. I’ll gloat when she’s a “surprise” nominee.

[quote]All Oscar conversation about The Farewell should end here!

Your post has been forwarded to distributor A24. Not only has the Oscar campaign been canceled so has the release of the film and all prints and negative will be destroyed.

After the Wedding barely lasted a week in theaters. It's dead and buried. There's already a lot of competition for Best Actress and Supporting without dredging that one up.

[quote]Academy is going to give this squinty-eyed bitch an Oscar for cashing in on Judy’s legacy after they denied the real Garland an Oscar for one of the greatest performances ever committed to film

First of all, Renee had nothing to do with them denying Judy her due. For that matter, all the people who did are pretty much dead now. And if you're referring to her performance in "A Star is Born," it definitely should have won over Grace Kelly, but it's hardly one of the greatest performances ever committed to film.

R209, pay attention. The Wife was DOA at the box office, too. Williams will sneak in there, most likely at the SAG Awards.

Despite The Wife's DOA status, her performance was still talked about regardless... her history with the awards was talked about... it was a huge narrative for her, not the film, and, again, you're the only person I've heard talk about the film. I'm beginning to think you're Julianne Moore's husband.

Please don't let Jamie Foxx get nominated for Just Mercy. Ugh, he grinds my nerves.

I wish I was, R212, because then I’d be 20 years younger and more handsome. I just think Williams is wonderful in ATW despite the film’s flaws. And have you noticed the attention she’s gotten for her Emmy speech. The SAG nominating committee will try to make room for her when they fill out their choices on that sheet of paper in early December.

[quote]The SAG nominating committee will try to make room for her when they fill out their choices on that sheet of paper in early December.

There is absolutely nothing to indicate that's a possibility. She's almost dead last in the long line of technically eligible actresses on most of the prediction sites. The only person who's lower is Constance Wu for Hustlers.

I'm a huge fan of Michelle Williams, but I just don't see how this could really happen.

[quote]It’s basically about “toxic masculinity” being the end-all and be-all of the life of mob hitman Frank Sheeran (Robert De Niro), Rosenthal says, “and what happens when someone chooses one family over their own nuclear family, and then tries to make repairs at the end of [his life]. What happens to men who make that decision.”

Producer Jane Rosenthal on The Irishman. It sounds like a post-2000s era Clint Eastwood movie where he tries to make reparations with his children.

A three and a half hour Scorsese film... it's kind of insane for him to be doing something so ambitious towards the end of his career. I hope the film's good!

[quote]I hope the film's good!

Actually looks quite promising.

New image released of The Irishman. Looks like we're going through four different time periods of the man's life. I think the younger looking rendition of De Niro's not all that convincing... looks almost video game-ish, but the others look good!

So The Irishman's apparently a masterpiece... I have to say that I didn't see it coming. Didn't think it'd be a complete fiasco, but I expected something of a functional mess like Gangs of New York. I'm glad to hear that it's not. From what I've read the visual effects are hit and miss, but you ultimately get used to them, which I kind of figured from the trailer, and that you don't feel the runtime, which is what really excites me.

I thought Wolf of Wall Street, despite its 3 hour runtime, was propulsive, which is impressive considering Martin Scorsese's age. To think that he and Thelma Schoonmaker have somehow edited together a 3 and a half hour film that does something similar is... well, frankly we'll fucking see. But hey, it's nice to hear that there's a big cinematic statement to look forward to.

I don't know whether I want to drive out to LA and see this in theaters, or just watch it on Netflix. That 3.5 hour runtime is daunting.

To me, Scorsese is for the big screen, not the small screen.

Just went to SAG screening of The Irishman here in NY. Too long but rarely dull. DeNiro, Pacino and Pesci are all brilliant. DeNiro and Pacino will be nominated for Best Actor and Pesci will probably win for BSA.

R44 you think Pesci will beat Pitt this year?

Yeah, is it Pesci v Pitt this season?! Could be a cool narrative. Both already have Oscars, however Pitt's isn't for acting. Pesci, however, has been gone for so long, and if he's back and woos audiences and reminds the Academy of why they loved him in the first place, then I can see him being formidable opposition.

Surely Pacino would go supporting too, he's only in one time frame as a supporting character?

No, R225, he’s in several time frames. He’s absolutely one of the leads. No way will he be put in Supporting. That’s Pesci’s slot and he’ll probably win.

It's another "big" performance but reviewers seem impressed with Pacino. He may be nominated for Best Actor.

He WILL be nominated for Best Actor. It’s a slam dunk.

I'm excited to see the film! When's it come out again?

It’s too bad The Laundromat is getting bad reviews. It would have been amazing to have Pacino, DeNiro and Streep nominated in the same year.

What's the word on her performance? Keep in mind, the Academy has nominated her for lesser films, so if there's room she could take a spot.

Even if Pacino could be considered a lead, he will be campaigned in Supporting, and that’s where he’ll be nominated. That’s just how things are done now, and there’s no use fighting it.

And are we sure Meryl isn’t getting nominated? Bad reviews for her movies don’t seem to stop her from getting nominations anymore, and the Best Actress field feels thin.

Yes r232 but Pesci is the fit for supporting, they won't put both him and Pacino in that category. All of the biggest raves for The Irishman are coming in for Pacino, with other lesser praise for the others (Romano may sneak in too someplace). He will be nommed in lead and has a great chance there.

NY-based Pesci will not beat Pitt, a long time Hollywood, LA-based Golden Boy who has made a ton of $ producing films bringing critical acclaim to the industry in recent years. OUaTIH is his career best, he will get the award. It's not that Pesci isn't liked or isn't talented - it's that Pitt's stature is so much greater among the Ampas voters.

WRONG, R232. Scorsese wants Pesci to have a shot at BSA. And unlike you I’ve actually seen the film and Pacino is absolutely a lead alongside DeNiro. And he will be nominated for Best Actor. And we’ll get the idiots coming out of the woodwork who insist they’ll cancel each other out.

If Pacino and De Niro both campaign in lead does Best Actor basically look like:

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Robert De Niro - The Irishman

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Any other Best Actor candidates I'm missing here?

Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes? Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory? Michael B. Jordan for Just Mercy?

I don’t see DiCaprio getting a nomination for OUATIH, though.

[quote]To me, Scorsese is for the big screen, not the small screen.

The movie is 3.5 hours long, I am happy I will be able to watch it at home where I can pause and go to the bathroom and what not than in a theater.

[quote]Yes [R232] but Pesci is the fit for supporting, they won't put both him and Pacino in that category.

But they will put DeNiro versus Pacino in best actor? I think Pacino in supporting is more plausible. It’s easier to get multiple nominees from one film in the supporting category than it is lead. Doesn’t matter if it’s category fraud.

[quote]Any other Best Actor candidates I'm missing here?

Bale and Damon for Ford vs Ferrari. Driver and Phoenix seem the most likely locks at this point. I can see Leo just missing. It’s a very competitive category this year, while less actress is dire.

*lead actress

Hilariously, Pacino would have a better chance of winning Best Actor than Supporting if only because of Brad Pitt is in the mix. Pitt is a decent, rather than a brilliant actor, but he gave his best performance and carried the film and it's a great post-divorce narrative for him. Especially as he coyly is refusing to campaign.

R239, for once and for all Pacino will be put in the Best Actor category, NOT Best Supporting Actor. Pesci will have a lock on Best Supporting Actor. Just watch the damn film first before coming up with a baseless theory.

Relax r242. Regardless of what you or I think, Netflix is going to campaign for Pacino in whatever category he has the best shot of winning.

[quote]Pesci will have a lock on Best Supporting Actor. Just watch the damn film first before coming up with a baseless theory.

Pesci will have a lock on a NOM for BSA without question. It's far more up in the air that he will win. Pitt essentially has this locked up (see r233 for an explanation - geography and popularity matter a LOT to Ampas voters).

Pacino and DeNiro should both go in Lead, but as stated upthread getting two lead roles nommed from same film is a stretch. And I'm also wondering if Bob's hardcore, diehard anti-Trump public sentiment (not that I disagree with him - I've been cheering him on) will work against him with conservative Ampas, a group known to hate controversy. He's practically used this press tour so far as a whacking post for T-Rump, at every stop. He already has his Oscars, he may not care at this point.

Also wondering is some of the blowback against The Joker might affect Phoenix - he'll be nominated, but if controversy dogs the film his win-chances will drop considerably.

I see Bandaras, Defoe or even Eddie Murphy getting the 5th slot, if open.

It would be extraordinary if both DeNiro and Pacino are nominated for Best Actor: it would be the first time since 1985 that two lead actors from the same film have been nominated against each other; it use to happen with regularity, but as Oscar campaigns have become more narrowly focuses, it's less likely to happen

1936: Clark Gable, Charles Laughton and Franchot Tone in Mutiny on the Bounty (only time 3 lead actors from same film were nominated); Victor McLaglan won for The Informer

1945: Bing Crosby and Barry Fitzgerald in Going My Way (due to a voting snafu, Fitzgerald was nominated in both Lead and Supporting, and he won the latter); Crosby won

1954: Montgomery Clift and Burt Lancaster in From Here to Eternity; William Holden won for Stalag 17

1957: James Dean and Rock Hudson in Giant; Yul Brynner won for The King and I

1959: Tony Curtis and Sidney Poitier in The Defiant Ones; David Niven won for Separate Tables

1962: Maximilian Schell and Spencer Tracy in Judgment at Nuremberg; Schell won

1965: Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole in Becket; Rex Harrison won for My Fair Lady

1970: Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight in Midnight Cowboy; John Wayne won for True Grit

1973: Michael Caine and Laurence Olivier in Sleuth; Marlon Brando won for The Godfather

1977: Peter Finch and William Holden in Network; Finch won (posthumously)

1984: Tom Courtenay and Albert Finney in The Dresser; Robert Duvall won for Tender Mercies

1985: F. Murray Abraham and Tom Hulce in Amadeus; Abraham won

Yeah, double lead nods is something that rarely happens. Occurs all the time in the supporting categories, especially Best Supporting Actress, but Oscar strategizing tends to prevent this from happening in the lead category.

Interesting how big co-leads seem to be this year for Best Actor: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, and The Irishman.

Bale and Damon in F vs F are true co-leads and it will be interesting to see how the studio promotes and places them an nominees. The chances of putting them both up as lead in a highly competitive year like this are nil imo, as they will cancel each other out during the nominating vote process.

Bale is seen in recent years as the stronger actor, whether reality or just perception, he may be put in Lead with Damon in Supporting. Supporting is a bit more open so that is probably the easier category at this point.

R245 - the three actors from Mutiny on the Bounty were not nominated as leads since there was no distinction back then between leading performances and supporting ones. The supporting categories were introduced the following year. Had it been done that year, Tone would have been categorized as supporting actor.

r248, I was going to comment on that but didn't; my impression has always been that it was due to Franchot Tone's nomination that the Supporting categories were created.

I saw Ford v. Ferrari at TIFF. I enjoyed it but not sure if it's going to be a major Oscar contender.

As for Best Actor, if they are going to pick one, Damon is much more deserving. Bale has given this performance before. He did nothing new.

New trailer for 1917. I hope it's as good as it looks.

They played it in front of Joker tonight. Looks like an experience... I'm mainly interested in it due to the cinematography. They keep using the same marketing tricks Dunkirk used, which is kind of off putting, but I'll watch the film.

Speaking of Joker, I thought it was kind of great. There were some really poetic visuals, a wonderful score, and Joaquin's exceptional. I'd say it's worth watching mainly because of his performance, but there's some respectable filmmaking going on... and I say this as someone who hasn't been all that impressed with Phillips' work.

I wonder what the Academy will think. It's an aggressively off putting film... will it even be the type of thing they're into aside from Phoenix?

A comedy set in Nazi Germany isn’t exactly the stuff of Oscars, but “Jojo Rabbit” is a serious awards contender. While reviews were mixed after Fox Searchlight premiered “Jojo” at the Toronto Film Festival, it went on to win the fest’s coveted People’s Choice Award, a good sign it would be among the 10 films nominated for the best picture Oscar.

Last year’s People’s Choice winner was “Green Book,” which took home the top Oscar prize. Other recent People’s Choice winners that were nominated for the best picture Oscar: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “La La Land” and “Room.”

In fact, the last People’s Choice Award winner that failed to be nominated for the brass ring was “Where Do We Go Now?” back in 2011. (The Lebanese film didn’t even make it into the foreign language category.)

Other best picture nominees this year could include “Marriage Story,” “The Irishman,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “Judy,” “Parasite,” “Joker,” “The Farewell” and” “Ford v Ferrari.”

Acting Oscar noms may be tough to come by for “Jojo.” In a perfect world, Davis would be recognized, but the now-12-year-old will have a difficult time slipping in next to heavyweights like Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood), Robert De Niro (“The Irishman”), Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”) and Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”). Also in the running are Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”), Adam Sandler (“Uncut Gems”), Michael B. Jordan (“Just Mercy”) and Eddie Murphy (“Dolemite Is My Name”).

As for Waititi for supporting, I don’t expect the Academy to jump at the chance to honor someone playing Hitler. Even Waititi admits he had trouble looking at himself in full makeup and wardrobe. “There’s embarrassment and a bit of shame,” he says.

Archie Yates, an 11-year-old newcomer who plays Davis’ best friend, steals almost every scene he’s in, but the supporting category is stacked with major players, including Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”), Willem Dafoe (“The Lighthouse”), Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), Al Pacino (“The Irishman”), Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”) and Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”). Buzz is also building for John Lithgow (“Bombshell”), Billy Eichner (“The Lion King”), Shia LaBeouf (“Honey Boy”) and newcomers Jonathan Majors (“The Last Black Man in San Francisco”) and Kelvin Harrison Jr. (“Waves”).

[quote]Billy Eichner (“The Lion King”)

😂

I am hoping that of the Roger Ailes movie women, Nicole Kidman isn’t nominated. She’s perilously close to out staying her welcome again.

Jeff Wells doesn't love Little Women but won't come out and say it because he wants to be down with Gerwig and Baumbach.

A lot of people are suggesting Ford Vs Ferrari. I can't imagine it will be as good as Rush.

I fucking loathe Florence Pugh (Florence Poo? Florence Ugh?) but she will likely knock costar M out of the movie's Supporting slot.

Do Dafoe or Pattinson have a chance for The Lighthouse?

Dafoe is supposed to be amazing in it r259 and is definitely in the running for a BSA nom. Pattinson also getting good reviews and will be put in BA but is a high long shot due to the huge competition in that group this year.

Ford vs. Ferrari is not as good as Rush r257. It's good, but Rush is far superior.

Danie Brühl was definitely screwed over for an Oscar nomination for Rush.

Agreed r262. Such an underrated film.

Willem Dafoe has had Oscar talk and no wins for almost consecutive years for a while now.

Pity he won't win this year either.

Dafoe is amazing in The Lighthouse and would be deserving of a Supporting Oscar nomination. I have mixed feelings about Pattinson -- he has some strong scenes where he totally nails it, but other scenes where he comes off as trying too hard and it took me right out of the movie.

RPattz has the good fortune and taste to work with the directors he does, but he's a good, not great actor.

Could WAVES be this year's black film?

Waves will be too polarizing. The first half is so LOUD. I think it might turn off people.

There's Dolomite Is My Name by Craig Brewer which has been warmly received. And Oscar loves an Eddie Murphy comeback. It co-stars Wesley Snipes, Keegan-Michael Key, Tituss Burgess, MIke Epps, Craig Robinson and there are excellent reviews for Dav'Vine Joy Randolph who I have only seen on Selfie.

Definitely expect an Oscar nomination for costumed.

Oops. I mean Dolemite Is His Name. Apologies.

No one is really predicting Avengers: Endgame.

The National Society of Film Critics has announced their winners. They don't have a great track record of indicating who will win the Oscar but this year I think they're correct on Best Picture and Best Supporting.

Best Director: Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”) Runners-Up: Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”), Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”)

Best Picture: “Parasite” Runners-Up: “Little Women,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Best Actress: Mary Kay Place (“Diane”) Runners-Up: Zhao Tao (“Ash is Purest White”), Florence Pugh (“Midsommar”)

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern (“Marriage Story” and “Little Women”) Runners-Up: Florence Pugh (“Little Women”), Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”)

Best Actor: Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”) Runners-Up: Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”), Adam Sandler (“Uncut Gems”)

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) Runners-Up: Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”), Wesley Snipes (“Dolemite is My Name”), Song Kang Ho (“Parasite”)

Best Cinematography: Claire Mathon (“Portrait of a Lady on Fire” and “Atlantics”) Runners-Up: Robert Richardson (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Yorick Le Saux (“Little Women”)

Best Screenplay: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (“Parasite”) Runners-Up: Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”)

Best Nonfiction Film: “Honeyland” Runners-Up: “American Factory,” “Apollo 11”

No host.

So..

Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt?

At least director and picture are mildly competitive.