Mighty Joe Biden Still Holds a 21 Point Lead in the Pivotal State of South Carolina According to New Poll

Steve Kornacki's aggregated polls show Joe's lead over Kamala's in the AA community is currently comfortably secure due to his strong association with Obama.

The black vote, which represents 25% of the Dem's primary electorate, will decide the next Democratic contender by both political influence and by direct vote. Deal with it.

But, but , I favor reparations! Buy my shirts.

Enjoy 4 more years of Trump.

[quote]The black vote, which represents 25% of the Dem's primary electorate, will decide the next Democratic contender by both political influence and by direct vote. Deal with it.

They will. And they might also change their mind on their favourite by the time South Carolina rolls around. Hope you'll be able to deal with that if/when it happens as well.

With Biden as the nominee, we can enjoy four more years of Trump.

[QUOTE]With Biden as the nominee, we can enjoy four more years of Trump.

Nonsense. No way does Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden. Without those three states, Trump can’t win 270 electoral votes.

R6 Biden is a terrible campaigner and always puts his foot in his mouth. If you think Hillary was error prone, Biden is a disaster waiting to happen.

R4 - why the snark? I'm a loyal party activist. I'm not advocating for Joe Biden by any means. In fact, I'm actually not supporting him right now, though I certainly will if he's the eventual nominee.

Also, the superfluous "u" in favourite gives you away. With that said, I encourage my British and Canadian friends to comment freely and regularly on American politics. Lord knows we need outside advice.

It wasn't snark, just pointing out the obvious.

[quote]Also, the superfluous "u" in favourite gives you away.

Can we not with that shit again? You're just wasting DL bandwidth. And it's super creepy. Creepy enough to go on my ignore list, actually. So, bye.

[quote]Biden is a terrible campaigner and always puts his foot in his mouth. If you think Hillary was error prone, Biden is a disaster waiting to happen.

So you're saying that when Americans go to the polls in 2020, they'll be saying to themselves: "Trump is a criminal and a fraud, and he's been an unmitigated disaster as president. But Biden made that gaffe on the campaign trail back in August. So I'm going with the criminal, fraud, and unmitigated disaster."

Pittsburgh here and a Biden supporter. Remember we elected Conor Lamb.

[quote]Biden is a terrible campaigner and always puts his foot in his mouth.

What r10 said. He's not my favoUrite, but his gaffes aren't something that's going to hurt him vis-à-vis Trump. Let's recall that Trump is a serial rapist and a fucking Russian puppet, people.

As long as the economy stays afloat, Trump ain’t going anywhere. Americans are numbed to Trump’s bs and he’s the new normal.

R9 has been triggered by superfluous "u" attacks from an American and as a result has had sufficient.

This place is hysterical! 🤣🤣🤣

Hillary enjoyed a lot of support from African American voters in the months leading up to Iowa in January, 2008. Then Obama went to Iowa and it was like The Second Coming. He blew through the Iowa caucuses and white people supported him. He proved he could win. African American voters are very pragmatic, and can usually be counted on to vote their interests. They aren't going to waste their vote on someone who can't win. The Democratic vote in South Carolina is significantly African American, and Biden is in the same position Hillary was in for much of 2007. So we'll see. The Jesse Jacksons, Al Sharptons and other "race-based" campaigns went no where. Kamala Harris is going to have to show she can win support across the board. Then she will pick up more Black support. From what I've heard she has money and she is organizing at the grassroots level. She is visiting and spending time with voters in all the key states. Personally I want Warren to win. Kamala is my second choice.

r11 Could Lamb be a special emissary in the new administration to repair the international diplomatic relations? No one could withstand his charm offensive. Gods, he's dreamy.

[QUOTE]Hillary enjoyed a lot of support from African American voters in the months leading up to Iowa in January, 2008. Then Obama went to Iowa and it was like The Second Coming. He blew through the Iowa caucuses and white people supported him. He proved he could win.

There is no Obama in this race.

The was no "Obama" in that race either. Until there was.

[QUOTE]The was no "Obama" in that race either. Until there was.

Barack Obama was a national sensation well before he won the Iowa caucuses.

How far in advance did Obama emerge as a viable candidate? I didn't follow American politics that closely back then. I remember reading an article about how he had the potential to be the first black US president and thinking he looked awfully young.

Connor Lamb needs to be in the spotlight more. He is a great, beautiful face for the Dems.

AA will vote for who they think can win.

MI, WI and PA rejected T harshly this past mid-term.

Biden looks great next to T. I agree, Biden has not been in top form. He needs to turn it around fast.

Kamala was great on the View today.

We are a long way away. Someone totally unexpected could end up our nominee (Steve Bullock?).

[QUOTE]How far in advance did Obama emerge as a viable candidate?

Four years in advance.

[quote]Joe Biden mentions the other candidate in New Hampshire: “I think we all know that this election is different. And not because good people like Mayor Pete Buttigieg are running, or lots of other people.”

Hmm... Is he openly cruising Pete for the VP slot? Or could he genuinely not recall who else is running?

R10 When Americans went to the polls in 2016 thinking "Trump is a criminal and a fraud, and he'd be an unmitigated disaster as president" and voted for him anyways. I have nothing against Biden and I'd take him over Trump, but he's not the right candidate to beat an incumbent president. We need someone who is going to inspire people to come out and vote in a way that Obama did in 2008 and Bill C in 1992. That's not Joe.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, Republicans are massively outpacing Democrats in voter registration.

[quote] Biden is a terrible campaigner and always puts his foot in his mouth.

But he's still much better than Kamala "If I'm president, we'll spend $10 billion to buy houses for black people" Harris, who will end up scaring all white voters into staying home if she's the nominee.

Obama was the ultimate empty suit. He lucked into his Senate seat because of an opponents scandal, then began running for president about a year-and-a-half later, having accomplished absolutely nothing in his senate term. If he had been white, no one would have paid the slightest attention, but because he was biracial, he became a media darling.

Thank you, R22.

You’re welcome.

Look. Obama made a great convention speech. Good. And a lot of politicians and pundits said, hey, that young man has a great future. But no one gave him much chance of beating Hillary in 2008. He was unseasoned. He was inexperienced. He had a "funny name" and he was certainly not well known. We've become accustomed to great speeches by Black Political leaders.And would he be able to break out of the mold, and be more than "just another Black Presidential candidate?"

The first thing he did was demonstrate he could raise serious money. I remember watching that develop in 2007. Suddenly Hillary wasn't looking so "inevitable." But the turning point was Iowa. He went to Iowa to speak, and 10,000 people showed up. White people. Reporters asked people as they left what they thought of him, and they were like ten feet off the ground. They couldn't say. One woman said as much. "I can't explain it but he is so inspiring." he kept drawing crowds. Big crowds. And raising money, and you could feel the tides of history sweeping over the whole fucking country. and Hillary got swamped.

R29 here. I just want to add that historically Black people have been accustomed to voting for white people. WTF choices did they have. But White people do not often have the opportunity or the inclination to vote for a Black person. The key to attracting White voters is they have to feel like the candidate is speaking to them. There has to be a universal message. Economic justice. Healthcare. Gun Safety. Free community college, raise the minimum wage. Those things are not targeted to one ethnic group. They're "kitchen table issues" , universal concerns. Too often in the past, Black candidates have limited themselves to Black audiences. Right now Reparations is not going to play well, and the GOP knows it. They will exploit that as they have exploited racial divisions in the past.

And yet Joe's 6 points behind in New Hampshire.

Funsies

It's not creepy, r9. Personally, I'm tired of non-Americans all over the internet trying to sway political discussion to their own benefit, and there are a handful of British and Canadian trolls here on DL who make me wary of ANYONE who is obviously not American weighing in.

You're not American so stop acting like your opinion and who you support matters.

[quote]When Americans went to the polls in 2016 thinking "Trump is a criminal and a fraud, and he'd be an unmitigated disaster as president" and voted for him anyways.

There was a lot of discussion by the media that was dedicated to assuring people that Trump was just acting out to get attention and would be presidential once elected. Lots of humanizing (Morning Joe, anyone? Fallon?) and people taking the heinous things he said as jokes.

When the Comey letter dropped, enough people either stayed home or decided to believe the media that Trump wouldn't be that bad.

His core base don't care that he's grifter scum, but those people who freaked out about HRC's emails at the last minute probably do.

It's interesting how poorly Elizabeth Warren performs with Black voters. It's equally interesting that this is never brought up against her - the Black vote is something the media only cares about when used to attack Bernie from the (pseudo) left.

The media loves to attack Biden over it, too. The slightest fluctuation among black voters in his polling generates big headlines. But the black vote doesn’t matter with Liz, else they might be forced to say something negative about their golden girl.

[quote] Barack Obama was a national sensation well before he won the Iowa caucuses.

He was not. Obama became a "national sensation" the evening of the New Hampshire primary when he lost to HRC and still gave a speech that electrified the whole world.

I could see Pete become an ¨electrifyier¨ like Obama. But his being gay may be a hindrance for some people tho.

If the black vote sticks with Biden, this will be the first time this voting bloc will hurt the Democratic party. There is no reason for his black numbers except Obama affiliation. Obama needs to come out and say something about how great the entire field is because it's fucking stupid to stick with Biden because he was Obama adjacent.

[quote] And yet Joe's 6 points behind in New Hampshire.

Sanders and Warren ought to do well in New Hampshire because they're from neighboring states. New Hampshire should be one of their strongest states. It wouldn't be a surprise for Biden to finish behind both of them in N.H.

[quote] Obama needs to come out and say something about how great the entire field is

Maybe Obama wants Biden to be the nominee.

[quote]If the black vote sticks with Biden, this will be the first time this voting bloc will hurt the Democratic party

Nominating HRC hardly helped the party.

[quote]Maybe Obama wants Biden to be the nominee.

That whole Biden campaign spiel about how they told Obama not to publicly endorse him (uh huh) convinced me that Obama was not wholeheartedly supporting his run. I think Obama thinks he would be a step backwards for the Democratic party.

Obama has met with any candidate who wanted to talk to him. Klobuchar, Harris and Warren have acknowledged that they all met with him and with Hillary. What I'm curious about, is the "Obama-adjacent" former staff. Are any former Obama people working on anyone's campaign? Because that would say a lot. We may not see a Valerie Jarrett fundraising for Warren or Harris, but others who are younger may jump in. I can't stress enough how important it is to have a great staff. Right now there are two people, IMO who have shown they have a great staff and a great ground game. Warren and Harris. I'd put Pete at #3.

[QUOTE]Obama needs to come out and say something about how great the entire field is because it's fucking stupid to stick with Biden because he was Obama adjacent.

If Obama pushed Joe for 2016, we wouldn’t be in this mess in the first place.

R24, that's because like its neighbor, Ohio, Pennsylvania is turning red. It has nothing to do with 'inspiration'. It's changing demographics.

[quote] If the black vote sticks with Biden, this will be the first time this voting bloc will hurt the Democratic party.

Don't worry. We have a plan for thay. Stay tuned.

^^^*that

Obama is an incredible speaker. He was vague enough too that people were able to project anything on to him--I remember people telling me he supported positions that he was explicitly against. But his inexperience showed when it came time to govern. He was also faced with an incredibly hostile GOP, which I'm not sure even the most experienced president could have handled.

As for Harris, I have a black friend who I discuss politics with a lot, and he dismisses her as "an Indian woman from Canada with a white husband who's pretending to be a black woman from California" and claims that most blacks see right through her. Now granted he is just one guy, and he's pretty ornery in his political opinions, lol, but I do wonder if that will become an issue for her. I know Woke Twitter™ is loving that she brought up busing again, but I suspect that older black voters in places like South Carolina are rolling their eyes thinking "not this crap again!"

It will be interesting nonetheless.

And yes R34, there were a lot of people, both before and after the election who were thinking/hoping that Trump's behavior was only an act and that he'd start acting "presidential" when he got into office. The ones who voted for him based on that--largely white more middle class suburbanites--are the ones I'm hoping are going to abandon him this time out, as the insanity is too much for them.

If Biden is the nominee it is Trump in 2020 and Ivanka in 2024. You read it here first!

I wish I had a dollar for every time I hear someone on TV use the word "Pivot" as applied to their hopes for Trump. They kept hoping that what we saw was not what we were getting. Alas. no. It's much worse.

R49, your friend sounds like a complete asshole.

Kamala Harris' father is Jamaican. As a product of a bi racial family, I am glad I was raised Black. No identity problems. Society has already made that decision.

[quote]Obama looked awfully young.

Yeah but that was until Donnie came on the map...

[quote]I'm so young I can't believe it. I'm the youngest person. I'm gonna be the youngest forever!

Not outside of an institution, Donnie, not outside of an institution...

As long as Biden, Sanders, Warren, or whoever can beat Trump I don't much care who it is.

R54 a candidate can't beat Trump just by wishing or saying so.

R54 a candidate can't beat Trump just by wishing or saying so.

Kamala isn't connecting even as she panders. She needs to stay the hell in the Senate, where she is actually doing a good job. Hopefully Elizabeth Warren will take her out at the next debate.

Elizabeth Warren - "I've got a plan for that"

Kamala Harris - "I've got a t-shirt for that"

R55 And? What's your point, exactly?

R15: Jesse Jackson won every Southern primary in 1988, you dip. The DLC set up the first Super Tuesday of Southern states to get a right wing Southerner into the nomination. Instead the overwhelmingly black electorate came out in those states and voted for Jackson. The whole plan backfired spectacularly. Learn what you're talking about before you post here.

R59, the fact that the black voters chose someone as ridiculous as Jesse Jackson to throw all their support behind is a problem. They are fucking it up again with Biden. I'm surprised that, in this day and age, standing next to a black guy for eight years is their deciding factor. You'd think his crime bill that helped incarcerate an entire generation of black men and his horrible treatment of Anita Hill would be more important.

It is troubling when the people you are trying to stand up for and support turn out to have their own opinions about things, R60.

Biden is a loser. Always the bridesmaid. The Republicans will destroy him in the General worse than Hillary’s emails.

r60 that was 1988, do you know how much more crap black people had to put up with back then? Of course they were going to support Jackson at that time. White politicians usually just don't get it when it comes to minorities, so a similar looking face can be reassuring. White people do the same thing, but because it's the norm and they are the majority it's rarely questioned.

People on here have said that voters supported Obama because he was safe to spoke to their concerns. What that means to my black ears is that he was non-threatening (light skinned black man) and focused on white issues. The good thing, is that "kitchen tables" topics are important. Every demographic cares about jobs, education, and safety. Biden is doing well among black people because of the Obama effect along with his moderate kitchen table polices. We know what we get with Biden, it's a toss up with many of the other options.

Warren, Castros, Harris, Booker and many others say some great things like fighting climate change, yet didn't mention people poisoned in Flint! Black people notice that. They talk about decriminalizing immigration, instead of just focusing on fixing the immigration process. Along with this talk of more immigrants, they rarely mentioned how black people, who already have the lowest standard of living in the US, can compete against this influx of competition. We have plans for coal minors that lose their jobs and wealthy farm subsidies, but funding congressional research into Reparations is controversial? It's just a study.

The last debate spent little to no time talking about black issues, despite decades of black support in the Democratic Party. Most of the nominees focused on immigration, climate, and healthcare. Those were very important topics, but how does attract a black voter with stagnate net worth over a number of generations? Biden, offers the general mix of the known, closer to Obama's policies which saw an increase in black graduation rates and wealth. The other candidates have wonderful policies that will help back Americans but they need to treat that population as worth of their time, like they do with any hispanic issue.

You sound far too sensible for DL R63 ;)

What did you make of Harris bringing up busing to Biden and the aftermath of that (her team having t-shirts already printed)?

In the first place the media loves to hype things to make it seem like a contest, and generate revenue from ads by boosting ratings when they can create competition and controversy. I don't believe the media and the pundits truly appreciate the level of anger out here. The fact is, I'm turning off the noise machine. IMO, a damned dog would beat Trump. So that is a false argument. Who can beat Trump? Anyone. We just have to show up, turn out and fucking vote instead of buying in to the fake hype. I think we a re past the point where we need some interpreter like a Joe Biden to carry the message. He is stuck in the 80's. I want someone who can show how much they have grown. He hasn't.

2008 and 2016 showed Americans don’t want establishment candidates. Biden and everyone else is a loser.

r65 Agreed with all of that. And the more vicious we are to each other during the primaries, the greater the danger that we turn into "Bernie or Bust" type of people when the general election rolls around. And we simply can't afford that.

[QUOTE]2016 showed Americans don’t want establishment candidates.

Then why did 3 million more Americans vote for the establishment candidate?

r64 in terms of a debate performance, I thought Harris hit her mark against Biden. But as someone actually listening, Marianne Williamson was the only person to mention reparations, bailing out the Pete from Swallwell's "Fire the chief" attacks. It's a polarizing topic, but it was the only relevant black issue, or topic of the moment, that I heard. The moderator cut off Williamson, but Harris interrupts him with "as the only person of color" remark. So everyone stops to let her speak her mind. She could have used the opportunity, as a former prosecutor, to talk about criminal justice reform, education, or minority unemployment. Instead, Harris brings up a 1970s bussing issue. Yes, bussing still occurs, but it is so so low on the list of AA concerns that it didn't warrant precious debate time.

This is why she get's a side eye from many black people. She used her race to command a moment, yet could only muster up a politically irrelevant issue in 2019 without a single solution. Now, the goal was to take out Biden, but the moment was wasted as many black viewers were waiting for our recognition in that debate.

On a side note, the previous night, Booker only addressed black people in nearly the most insulting way. He went on and on about the crime in his predominantly black neighborhood. Another one not offering a single solution, though it's to be expected since he was the mayor over that city and it still sounds like a ghetto. He embarrassed his neighbors on national TV.

The white candidates offered very little for AAs during the debate. But, Biden is an old school Dem; they at least still give black people their ear and might make policies that work for us from time to time. Like all politicians that have been around for 30 plus years, he has loads of skeletons. Black people have long since given up on finding white candidates with a clean anti-racist (leaning/questionable) background, especially if they are over 60 years old. Plus, we are pragmatic enough to know that times change and you have to work with what you've got.

What I Worry about is backlash. It's anecdotal, but a work colleague who's AA was telling me that his step mother and father (both AA) were talking over the 4th, about the debate, and they were both pissed off at Kamala for attacking Biden. They didn't care about the issue. Kamala could have attacked him for wearing a blue suit. But they just decided they didn't like what she did, said she was a big mouoth and pushy and "out of line." Now these are older adults, early 70s. They love Biden. They feel like he is the only way to beat Trump. And they are an example of people who will be alienated if their favorite is bashed especially if it costs him his frontrunner status and he loses the nomination. They are so invested in Biden as Rescuer it is troubling to my colleague who has a younger fresher perspective and is supporting Warren..

R63/R69 - I'm white and I really appreciate your insight. When I was watching Booker he seemed like he was crying out for someone to get him out of his neighborhood. I can see why his statements wouldn't go over well with black folks. My gut feeling has been that Biden will get the nomination because so many people want the tried and true. We'll see.

R43 It's pretty much common knowledge now that when Biden was heavily considering a run for the democratic nomination in 2016, Obama talked him out of it. Allegedly Obama felt Hillary was the better candidate.

R63, I question some of your analysis. Warren, especially, has spoken and has plans for all the issues you bring up. The link below is just one of the times she's specifically fought for Flint.

Also, can you point out the issues discussed in the debates that spoke solely to white people? As you said, the kitchen table issues pertain to everyone, so those are what were discussed. The immigration issue was discussed, specifically, because of what Trump is doing right now, not because of Hispanics. And, the use of Spanish was rightly laughed at as absurd pandering across the board. If you want more Trump, make reparations a front stage issue.

According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the last nine presidential election wins, Trump will win again in 2020. He states the only way to stop him is for the Democrats to Impeach him before 2020.

[quote] This is why she get's a side eye from many black people. She used her race to command a moment, yet could only muster up a politically irrelevant issue in 2019 without a single solution. Now, the goal was to take out Biden, but the moment was wasted as many black viewers were waiting for our recognition in that debate.

It was just her opening salvo. As you note, it was her intention to alert black voters who are comfortable with Biden that he aligned himself with segregationist congressmen in his opposition to busing. He did not attempt to distinguish himself from his white segregationist colleagues then or offer the nuanced, strictly political rationale for his opposition that he espouses today. It worked like a charm. Post-debate polling showed that her strategy was successful.

The important thing to remember is that Harris doesn't have to talk about issues of relevance to AAs, she just had to convince them that she's one of them -- like Obama -- and she gets the black vote.

R75, Obama talked policy and issues. He deliberately chose to not be "the Black candidate" in the sense that his messaging was universal. He had to demonstrate he had crossover appeal. For AAs, he had to show them he could win, and for the rest of the voting public he had to show them he was indeed a viable, serious candidate. He avoided the "third rail" of addressing race politics, until it was forced on hi by the Reverend Wright mess. And then he did it with a very eloquent, high-minded address.

I understand what Kamala is trying to do with Biden, and Booker went after him too. They see a need to pry the Black voters away from him, but they need to be a lot smarter about how they do that. Rule number one, is that they have to appear viable. They need to demonstrate they can win. And that has nothing to do with Biden, and everything to do with themselves and how they present.

Now Kamala IMO has done a better job than Booker by a mile, but she isn't "there" yet. And she won't do it by going down the road on civil rights/race issues. Biden is weak on a lot of stuff. His support of Bush tax cuts, his Anita Hill mess, and a host of other shit. And he isn't smart. He's got a temper, he's stubborn and he is arrogant. But most of all, he loves to talk. And he will dig a hole for himself with his own mouth. He will demonstrate that he is still stuck in the 80's. That's what is going to hang him.

Right now Elizabeth Warren has the strongest universal message. But is weak on Black support. Obama knows better than anyone what Biden's shortcomings are. I know one thing. Using Obama as his cover isn't going to work. He needs to stand on his own. People are afraid to go through another 2016. But that has everything to do with voter fraud, cyber security issues and voter suppression,, and nothing to do with nominating another woman. Or A Gay man.

But, why would Warren not be supported by blacks? Biden's 46% support makes no sense at all. He's done nothing for black people except be the safe white guy standing next to Obama so he wouldn't scare away too many racist assholes when it came time to vote. Hardly an admirable background for getting black support, never mind the crime bill and Anita Hill mistreatment, among about 20 other things. That level of black support for Biden seems like it's just mindless, lemming type support and is very disappointing.

Good. Let him until the field is narrowed down to Warren Harris Pete, and ok Bernie. Bidens lead won't last.

Fucking crazy. This guy will be the end of us.

And the dull dumb dems who think he's the best bet. Like for like.

You know who you are. I'm looking at you 👀

From everything I've seen and read, black people who were bused weren't exactly thrilled about it either. That just shows the disconnect that Kamala has with black voters.

[quote]He's done nothing for black people

What has Kamala done? What has Booker done? I love people who get pissed off about Biden's support in the black community and they try to twist themselves into pretzels trying to explain it away. Go to a black barbershop, they will explain it to you. They want to be rid of Trump. Biden seems to be the best and most solid path to do that.

Stop trying to fix what went wrong in 2016 by forcing a woman to be the top of ticket. I like Warren, but she's not going to pick up votes where it matters. And neither will any of the others. If it's not Biden, then we need to go with Pete.

At this point in 2007, Hillary was up 20 points on Obama.

[quote]If it's not Biden, then we need to go with Pete.

Wahwahwah, stop trying to force a woman on the top of the ticket! She can't win back the white working class support! Waaaaahhh. We need to put a gay guy on the top!! That'll fix it! That'll win back those racist, sexist voters because I'm sure they're not also homophobic! Yeah!!

Come back to reality, idiot.

I'm for a Warren Pete ticket. Happy 81,83?

He can beat Trump. He has my vote.

R83, I'd rather lose with a qualified, excellent gay candidate than either Warren or Harris.

Well, that's fucking stupid, R86.

The immigration issue is a mess. The Republicans, as usual, are winning the messaging wars. A recent focus group in Michigan, gives the impression that voters are not as outraged as many of us believe. At least, they're not blaming Trump. They think "something had to be done..."

The group of 12 whole people that Axios spoke with, R88? Yes, what a scientific measurement of how the Republicans are winning the "messaging war" like they always do. Thank you, Concerned Democrat, for popping in and saving us.

[QUOTE]Larry S., an Obama-Trump voter, said he's noticed an increase in "foreigners" among Michigan's population. "We’re helping everybody else, so they’re coming here for free and we're babying them," he said. "It’s time that we stop. We gotta think about us first."

I'm not a "Concern troll." I'm just irritated that the Democrats are not making the case for immigration reform as effectively as we could. I saw Klobuchar on Morning Joe and she did an excellent job. But she isn't a frontrunner. The fact is the Democrats are NOT for open borders. And yet, that's what a lot of people think. Because the Republicans have tagged us on that. About a year or so ago, or maybe it was 2017 when a majority of Americans felt we ought to do something to help the DACA kids and legislate a "pathway to citizenship." But there seems to be this short term memory loss.

R91 here. I have a question: Someone please give me a brief summary on the Democratic position on immigration. Five or 6 succinct points should do it:

[quote] I saw Klobuchar on Morning Joe and she did an excellent job. But she isn't a frontrunner.

Klobuchar's views on most issues, like immigration and health care, are realistic, pragmatic, and in tune with voters in swing states. It's too bad that she's dull as dirt and polling at less than 1%, with no chance of gaining any traction, because in many ways, she would be the ideal nominee.

[quote]We gotta think about us first

That's all these moderates ever think about are themselves. And then everyone jumps for joy when they vote democrat once every two decades, but they're only doing that because the Republican they previously voted for didn't completely change their fortunes.

I'm having a real hard time mustering up any compassion for these 45 voters who have buyers remorse. It's pure selfishness and ego, and just once I like someone to tell that to their faces instead of coddling THEM and acting like their votes are so damn precious and better than everyone else's.

r94 Your post really ought to be nailed somewhere.

R94 you're confusing moderates with independent voters. There are moderate Democrats and Republicans.

R94 you're confusing moderates with independent voters. There are moderate Democrats and Republicans.

I haven't read the full thread, but I can't understand why Biden appears to be so popular with black voters. Any insight?

r98 He carried the water for a black man for eight years. That's it.

The shrieking harpy will not get the nom, Biden will get it. A white male will be the only thing that can beat rump sadly. I will happily vote for that old alligator skinned Biden to have fat rump removed.

Because they can tell when they re being lied and pandered to, r98,

r100 We'll get four years of a bit more centrist US than under Obama, but at least Trump will be gone.

Unless he decides to run again in 2024, that is.

r98 CBS News did some interviews in one of the Carolinas a little while back, including older black voters who were adamant Biden supporters because above all, they said, we have to win in 2020. I think those minds are changeable if another candidate shows consistent polling strength in the general election match-up.

Poor fools, Biden would lose.

Any of the top five would win. Biden won't electrify anyone, but he sure as hell will win.

Moderates didn’t form the unions. Moderates didn’t pass Social Security or Medicare. Moderate didn’t march for civil rights. Moderates didn’t fight for marriage equality. The Liberals did.,

What’s a fucking moderate?

[quote]Moderates didn’t form the unions. Moderates didn’t pass Social Security or Medicare. Moderate didn’t march for civil rights. Moderates didn’t fight for marriage equality. The Liberals did

But now you can't count on them to show up to vote. If you truly want a government that represents you, then vote. But many democrats seem to think you are only supposed to do that once every four years.

[quote]What’s a fucking moderate?

The group that liberals bargained with and formed a coalition with to get their vote to get things like social security passed. Without moderates you wouldn't have SS, medicare, and all that other fun stuff. They're also the ones who show and vote.

[QUOTE]Obama was the ultimate empty suit. He lucked into his Senate seat because of an opponents scandal, then began running for president about a year-and-a-half later, having accomplished absolutely nothing in his senate term. If he had been white, no one would have paid the slightest attention, but because he was biracial, he became a media darling.

What has Elizabeth Warren accomplished?

Trump isn't going to win. The economy is not doing great. They must be faking the numbers just like all presidents do.

I see increasing number of empty storefronts, businesses going out of business, so many homeless on the streets. I don't believe the country is doing great. Hard times are coming.

r110 the country is doing fine.. Amazon and online retail is killing the store front. Actually, shoppers using these tools are killing store fronts. The number of homeless in your area is related to the policies of the city and climate. By the standard measure of the economy, America is chugging along nicely. If we focus on the Dems convoluted immigration message, as Trump wants, we will lose.

Yeah the country’s doing great in the east coast suburbs and exurbs where I live and do business. Areas that the Dem presidential candidate will need in order to beat Trump, btw. R110 must live in San Francisco. I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen a homeless person.

R112, I'm in the middle of the country and the economy is not doing great. It sucks. All those jobs are being taken as second and third jobs. Stores are closing all over the place. People aren't taking any risks by starting businesses because they can't get far enough ahead financially to take that risk. Grocery prices are insane. All prices are becoming insane. Taxes upon taxes going up. People are getting priced out of their homes by property taxes. There are almost no full-time jobs with benefits anymore. Everyone is either kept at 29 hours in part-time jobs so the companies don't have to give the benefits or they call their employees "contract workers" and, again, don't give them benefits. The farmers are all going to go under. Hope you don't like eating. I work in a library and I see homeless people every single day. Lots of them.

And, don't get me started on the price of health insurance skyrocketing again. I'm in the ACA marketplace and don't think I'll be able to afford health insurance next year. I already had to go from a silver plan to a really crappy bronze plan...and I've never used the damn insurance in the five years I've had it. This economy is crashing while the stock market skyrockets. Same as it ever was.

[quote] I haven't read the full thread, but I can't understand why Biden appears to be so popular with black voters. Any insight?

None.

R113 has described what most are experiencing around the country. However, Trump's appeal is in what he says not what he does. His politically incorrect demonization of foreigners, liberals, the media, immigrants and minorities is a salve for all the woes of poor white people. They'd almost rather die than live in a world where they are not exalted as the REAL America. It is not clear how tough things have to get for them before this changes.

I don't know that any Democratic candidate can reach those people. I think Democrats need to focus on everyone else.

"Economic anxiety" = "Why are some non-whites doing better than ME?!"

You'll never get through to those people with any kind of economy talk.

One of the most important things many people overlook from the Nixon Presidency is that a political campaign can chooses it's opponent will win. Nixon was afraid to face Edmund Muskie. Muskie was destroyed during the primaries. Nixon wanted McGovern in 1972. He ran against MCGovern. So if I were an investigative reporter, I would go back and look at the Republican candidates for President in the 2016 primaries and figure out if they had "help" losing to Trump. I say that because if the Russians or Cambridge Analytica were manipulating social media, and other hacks, it is possible they are also doing it now with the 24 Democrats who are running. Trump has a team of people looking under every rock for dirt. I saw a hit piece this morning on Elizabeth working as a consultant for corporations. The most important thing we can do is ignore the media hype. #VoteBlueNoMatterWho.

R49, Agree with much of your post. Tried to warn DL about Kamala Harris based on what LSA was clearly saying when she 1st announced. Same with Corey Booker, major practical errors re his candidacy.

However plenty Trump voters have always seen him as the lesser of 2 evils. They're not solidly backing him, as proven by his sometimes low poll numbers. However they view some of the positions advocated by the top Democratic candidates to be worrisome. RNC will exploit Progressive positions labeling them too far Left.

Other Trump backers are 1 or 2 issue voters. They may dislike his total lack of diplomacy and bullying but will reluctantly vote for the candidate that holds certain views.

R8, Poo Shoes is continually pretending to be a Brit or Aussie. And she loves to sow political discord. She may have forgotten which of her 20 browser windows opened to DL she was commenting to herself in and slipped out of ... character.

From what I've seen, woker than woke white gays are falling all over each other to support Kamala and make a diva out of her. Which is nauseating when it comes to politics, and also a total Hillary repeat. Extra points if they smear Pete here and there as well.

On the other hand, black people really don't seem to be feeling her as hey can smell disingenuousness and opportunism on her better than anyone else. Of course, I've no doubt they'll fall in line if she wins Iowa and NH.

There will always be someplace in the country struggling with the current economy. If you in the mid-west r13 then you must not be in the major cities because employees have tons of full-time jobs with benefits. Our ancestors travelled across an ocean ,or at least around the country, for work. I get really tired of these entitled people, not talking about you r113, that feel like jobs should come to them. It's like they have never heard of capitalism. If you don't have a job in your area then pack up and move or find one where you can work remote. If you are a blue collar worker, you should take advantage of the retraining available to you. Everything I've said is tough, but we have a lot resources to help people in this country. Those workers in China or Mexico, that have your old job, didn't sit around complaining, they moved wherever was necessary to find work.

I know I'm tying out of frustration, but sometimes when I hear stories about those entitled coal miners in West Virginian and such, I get annoyed because they refuse to leave their crapy situation. My single mother had to move out family four times to various parts of the country when I was growing up. It wasn't ideal, but we never starved.

Economic insecurity is always a "go to" strategy. No matter how great things are people always feel like the bottom might fall out, or that they could be doing better.

Sorry, that was a mess of a comment in r121 that I couldn't ignored:

There will always be someplace struggling in any economy. r13 if you live in the mid-west then you must not be in the major cities because employers have lots of full-time jobs, with benefits. Our ancestors sailed across an ocean, or at least traveled around the country, for work. I'm tired of these entitled people, not talking about you R113, that believe jobs should come to them. It's like they have never heard of capitalism. If you don't have a job in your area then pack up and move or find one where you can work remote. If you are a blue-collar worker, you should take advantage of the available retraining. Everything I've said is tough, but we have a lot of resources to help people in this country. Those workers in China or Mexico, that hold your old job, didn't sit around complaining, they likely moved wherever was necessary to find work.

I know I'm typing out of frustration, but sometimes when I hear stories about those entitled coal miners in West Virginia and such, I get annoyed because they refuse to leave their crapy situation. My single mother had to move our family four times, to various parts of the country, when I was growing up. It wasn't ideal, but we never starved or asked for special treatment.

There is nowhere in the US that has this concentration of low-skill jobs that one can migrate to and instantly find work. Everywhere it's service sector and maybe light industrial in some areas. A friend was complaining that she's trying to get a front office job for a doctor's office. She has experience and a solid resume. But every job she applies to has hundreds of applicants, meaning it's a crap shoot that somebody will even see her application.

And this points to another problem. There are jobs, but most of them are shitty, part-time, minimum-wage, no guaranteed hours, and no benefits. Not exactly worth picking up and moving to. "Good" jobs, those with regular full time hours and some benefits, are hard to get. Don't let the employment stats fool you: There are many underemployed people, and many more who gave up looking.

The nature of relocating and getting work has changed a great deal since elderqueens like R123 were in the workforce during the Nixon administration. Applying for nearly any job now takes weeks to months as the HR sausage machine grinds ever so deliberately. You need access to the internet for hours at a time to fill out applications and respond to emails. Where will you get this? My library allows computer use for 30 mins at a time, no more than 2x/day. Poor dislocated people probably don't have a lot of extra cash to spend on internet. Maybe they can apply from their cellphones.

Service and retail jobs are notorious for not providing enough hours to pay the bills, necessitating finding a 2nd or 3rd job that has a schedule that coordinates with your other schedules. And modern on-demand staffing and nontraditional work hour models mean this 2nd job is almost impossible now. It's not like when your mother could get a "day job" and a "night job" and maybe a "weekend job." All jobs are pretty much anytime, all the time, now.

Finally, about that moving. It is far more expensive to move now than it used to be. Transportation of goods and people is much more expensive. Rents are high and application fees are too. Without a source of income, most modern landlords won't rent to you. Where will you live? People living in rural areas who have not had decent employment in years won't have the thousands of dollars required to resettle. Where will they get the money? But what they do have where they are now are social connections and a roof over their heads.

It's not the same caftans-and-cosmos world it was when you were a young girl, R123. In fact, your experience was a blip on history's radar.

Don't forget to add that companies have started to administer personality tests too. And applying now is almost exclusively Internet based and determined by using keywords.

I've always said it's very important to be in the lead 16 months before the election

r124 that's a lot of valid excuses, but excuses non the less. People have had to endure a lot more than, gasp, hours on the internet. If you're unemployed then you've got noting but time anyway. Let's look at this in a broader context, there are people in the world that walk for miles just to feed their families, sometimes the food or money isn't guaranteed. You want hard up, check out the lives of people in India's slums or slums around the world. The job market may not be ideal for every American, but what you described is more of an annoyance then a hinderance. At least they can no sit in front of a computer any apply for jobs nation wide.

There are loads of skilled full-time jobs, with benefits, but it may not be exactly the type of position someone had in the pas, like your friend and her search for a doctor's office position. Again, I get that we aren't in a utopia, but American's have become very entitled with our version of hardship. Most people survived the Great Depression with less complaining (not saying you were). I'm sure everyone can survive a few hours on a library computer, if for some reason they don't have single friend or relative in the area with wifi and a laptop.

How do you do it? Same way everyone does it, apply at night when your children are asleep. if you can't do that, then schedule "library time" every Saturday or a weekday afternoon. You can crank out a number of applications if you set your mind to it.

Thanks for the props R118

A couple of points:

* It's a mistake to read anything into 2016 other than that Democrats vastly underestimated the degree to which many people actively disliked Hillary Clinton, e.g., it was not so much a rejection of moderate Democrats as it was a very personal rejection of her. You can see that now by looking at 2008 and how quickly everyone jumped on the Obama bandwagon, sort of "Oh good, we've got this smart moderate guy, we don't have to vote for her now"

* That said, 2016 was another lifetime ago at this point and voters are in a very different place. They just want the constant fighting and bickering and insanity to stop, the whole us vs. them, because it makes America a very unpleasant place to live.

They want someone who will talk about that and about incremental change, not radical change. The economy is doing well in many places--if that changes between now and the election, then radical change will indeed be on the agenda, but if not, people are not going to want to rock the boat.

* Focusing on things like busing and reparations and free houses for POCs allows the GOP to define us as just a bunch of special-interest focused wack jobs at a time when the bar for us winning is set very low: all we need to do is convince people that our candidate won't seriously screw up a booming economy and won't send out tweets telling US-born Congresswomen to go back to where they came from.

That should be all we need to peel enough voters--largely middle class suburban women-- in key states, away from Trump to win. And that's all we need to do--win.

Healthcare, unemployment, immigration--those are all peripheral until they're not. Until you have candidates saying they want to provide free healthcare to illegal immigrants at a time when Obamacare is still so expensive that people can barely afford it and Kamala Harris scaring everybody that she wants to bring back court-imposed busing.

This should be an easy win but we always make it so complicated.

Where exactly is this booming economy?

I'm now on food stamps. The economy is a boom for billionaire's.

No R127, quit trolling. They aren't lazy. I said they don't have access. These aren't excuses but real barriers to doing the things that they are required to do in order to get the job. The library won't allow them to be online more than an hour a day, and they have to travel there. Their cellphone data allowance is too small to do all the browsing and form filling they need to. They are probably working 7 days a week on an irregular schedule as it is, making arranging childcare and grocery shopping and everyday stuff very complicated. They don't have the cash needed to pick up their family and move to a strange new place.

There are no more weekends, grandpa. In the old days you could show up at an employer and you were hired. You had a set schedule. Most service workers don't get that anymore. And the library is probably closed a lot due to budget cutbacks anyway.

Cities and suburbs are larger now. You can't walk 20 miles to a job and these days your job might be that far, or the grocery store you work at for $10/hr for 18 hours a week might transfer you from the store near your home to another location 15 miles away to work two four-hour shifts a week. That is not a walkable distance. It takes time to take the bus. In many cities buses don't run at night, or there aren't connections to various suburbs.

Stop changing the argument. We didn't talk about applying for jobs "nationwide." Poor Appalachians don't have money to travel for job interviews. Employers only pay travel expenses for highly sought employees. Walmart and the local restaurant won't hire you if you aren't local.

There are few skilled part time jobs and we weren't talking about that anyway. We were talking about the nature of most jobs these days, and most jobs are service sector, part time and on call. 81% of jobs are service sector.

There are thousands of doctors' offices in my city and there are thousands of applicants for each job because there are millions of people living here. The largest services job subsector in the US is ... healthcare. Those jobs are decent but the receptionist at a doc's office is very low on the totem pole, making minimum wage. It is not a great job. People are sick and in a bad mood and the work pace is exhausting in most clinics. When you have Indeed dot com telling you that 1,204 people applied for a single position at a medical office, and 981 applied at another one, you start to understand that it's not an application, it's a lottery ticket.

Other factoids that you didn't learn in elementary school in 1957 are that the typical job-seeker now must apply to dozens of jobs before getting an offer. There are more job seekers than jobs available at any time by about 30%. The average time from posting any job to hire is over 2 weeks. There are an average of nearly 200 applicants per position in the US at this time.

Waiting to see what kind of victim-blaming nonsense you'll have in reply.

r131 we are both basing our arguments on anecdotes so let's just move past it and focus on this, the d Democratic candidate will actually have a plan for these issues, Trump does not. I love your passion, but I have a different world view. I'm also not ancient, or even old, I wasn't even alive before 1985.

The people you're talking about R131 fall into the "nice to have" category but most of them don't vote.

We need the people hiring them, the middle class female voters in FL, PA, OH, MI and WI who voted for Trump and now regret it. I suspect most of them would be the type of women DLers call "fraus."

We need those women to feel comfortable enough with whoever is running in order to vote for them and not Trump.

The new "gig' economy you so eloquently describe is an issue and new plans need to be put into place to help people navigate it and thrive, but right now we just need to win this election.

[quote]Democratic candidate will actually have a plan for these issues,

Nobody will have a plan for this unless you think the state is going to take over production. It's simply how the hiring process works.

Why do you care about one poll in south Carolina 16 months before the election?

R127, you really don't know what you are talking about. Give us a little curriculum vitae for yourself. You are really out of touch and I'm sure we'll see the reason in there. You sound like a Repug. That, alone, should give you pause.

[quote]Cats rarely get in mischief when they are being paid attention to, it is when you ignore them that they cause problems. Get off DL and play with the cat, they tire easily and will be off napping before you know it and then you can get back on DL.

Oh, you have no idea how wrong you are.

My brother had Tucker Carlson on tonight, so I watched in amusement. He actually had an interesting segment on about the Democratic candidates. He was separating real contenders (Warren, Harris, Pete) from the "zombies"...candidates who are dead, but they don't know it yet. He named four...Beto, Gillibrand, Booker and ...Biden. I was shocked that he would include Joe, but then he ran clips of him answering questions , which shocked me. He was asked in May about China, and gave the most rambling, incoherent answer I've ever heard. While Carlson relished going after the other 3, he seemed genuinely sad about Biden.

[quote] My brother had Tucker Carlson on tonight, so I watched in amusement.

Yeah, right. I'm sure you were only watching Tucker Carlson because of your "brother."

Republicans fear Biden because they think he can cleave away some of Trump's support. Expect more hitpieces on him by fake news media. They are most comfortable with Trump facing Harris, Warren and Pete because POC, women and gays are the boogeymen to Trumpanzees.

Biden's only real weakness is with the Democratic base. He is not the candidate of choice. I don't know who they are polling but it's clearly not the Democrats who couldn't be bothered to vote in 2016.

I'm mystified at how a mediocre candidate in his eighth decade can be seen as the most viable choice. It's like he has this aura, and when he walks in to a room people think "Obama!!!" is just around the next corner we'll wake up from this horrible nightmare, and everything will be OK.

R140, Scan the alt right sites for a contrasting view and you'll get a totally different viewpoint. #1 candidate Trump OCD loyalists want to win the Primary is Biden. In fact they were bitterly complaining re (false?) news he might drop out due to health reasons.

Yeah right. I’m sure they’re just dying to run against the candidate who polls best against him rather than someone who Trump is already defeating in general election matchups.

R143, Guarantee you that the political ad creators will have a field day in 2020. Expect the ultimate mud slinging contest if Biden wins the Primary.

You could say that about any candidate. What, there will be a professional and cordial general election if Kamala Harris wins?

r143 GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS ARE MEANINGLESS AT THIS POINT BECAUSE THEY ARE BASED....

Ah, forget it. If you still don't understand why that is, you never will.

The other thing that is meaningless are national polls. They're based on a popularity contest; name recognition. The PResidential election, as I have said before, is actually 50 state wide elections. They are going to sling mud, foment scandals, and smear whoever gets the nomination. They will rerun updated versions of berther attacks, they will cast their opponent as corrupt and dishonest, they will say they're incompetent and don't have the ability to do a decent job. THey will lie, divide, and stoke fear "The economy will crash!!!" etc. We absolutely have to ignore all of it. ALL OF IT. Trump projects. The notion that this administration, the most corrupt in our history, and this ignorant demented old pig can attack projection his own shortcomings on his opponent is absurd to us. But it works on people who are not engaged. Dems worry about "who can beat Trump" but we need to be worrying about how to make our messaging more effective, and that requires two strategies:Offense as well as Defense. Think about it.

Obviously I meant "birthers" not "berthers."

I do wish we got better state-by-state polls in the run-up to the election. Some states have almost no decent polling at all. In 2016 I started watching New Jersey's polls because they seemed to update quickly and got nervous at how quickly it flipped to Trump after the Comey letter. Accurate polling like that in more than a handful of states is what we need if we're to be truly informed of how the country swings.