Is Roe v. Wade going to be overturned before the 2020 election?

They can try, but there would be hell to pay politically.

It’s like the dog who barks at the school bus every morning and then one day suddenly catches it. Then how do they get their base’s dumb asses to the polls? Gays aren’t the draw we use to be.

They will, and then they're coming for same-sex marriage.

The poll draw will be, "Look at what we righteous Christian soldiers have done after 40 years of trying. Never give up."

Freepers are assholes

I don’t know if anyone wants to hear from a woman, because you usually don’t when it comes to women’s bodily functions. But I think this might be an appropriate place for my perspective.

Back in the early 90s I was in my early 20s. I live in NYC and we were lucky to have pretty good abortion services here. There wasn’t any internet to speak of, I don’t remember how women found them. I guess word of mouth, the Village Voice and everyone knew Planned Parenthood.

But, as always, there was the threat of losing abortion rights. Even 25 years ago, there were feminists spreading the knowledge of abortifacient herbs that you could take if your period was late, in ‘zines. Rumors of radical feminists giving training in low-tech, early menstrual extraction. A sort of grass-roots DIY, “here’s the secret wisdom and methods we’ve always used to get around the men”. Historical, herbal methods of birth control that might be useful if we lose access to birth control as well. (The Catholic-endorsed “Rhythm Method” is surprisingly effective if you have a cooperative male)

Although I’ve never left our liberal city and know that I have enough privilege to travel if a daughter needed to leave the country for an abortion, I still have the knowledge tucked away. Because I don’t have faith that legal abortion is a permanent right.

And, gay brethren and sistren, you probably have the same reservations about marriage equality. It can be taken away.

It should be overturned..

A man has no goddamn right to tell a woman what she can/should do with her body.

Overturning Roe v Wade will guarantee a Democrat in the WH and the GOP losing the Senate IMO.

Part of me wonders if the GOP figures this will happen anyway and want to inflict maximum damage before they lose the ability to do so.

R4 No, its not always that effective, even if the woman has a cooperative male partner or spouse.

People who use the Rhythm Method of birth control are called parents.

Does anyone here cynically feel that overturning RvW, has less to do with morality and more to do competing geo-politically and economically- say with Asia that so outnumbers us in population?

Yes, Breyers dissent laid it out. The 5 conservatives do not care about precedents. Roe vs Wade has been the law for almost 50 years and they do not care. They will dismantle brown vs board of education, they will dismantle gay rights.

The fundies have passed laws in 5 states, and tomorrow in Alabama about abortion. These laws are in direct contrast to what medicine says. If as a gay man you have specific health care needs, their beliefs are more important

He said it would happen, right there in a debate. And she said that's what's gonna happen if you vote for him. So, all you women who voted for Jill Stein in protest, or didn't vote because you didn't like Hillary, it sucks that you are stupid and will be forced to pass on your stupidity to another generation.

r9: I think if that were the case they'd also be pushing for a ban on condoms and birth control and conditioning society to see large families as a positive thing.

I don't necessarily think it matters whether they do it before or after the election. The court is now in a 5-4 sold conservative majority regardless of whether a Democrat fills Ginsburg's seat or not. The calculus isn't going to change anytime soon. I do believe, however, that the blowback from repealing Roe v Wade will spook Roberts, especially if death threats start getting thrown around. As morbid as it is to say, the reason Obamacare has not been repealed largely comes down to the shooting that occurred at the congressional baseball game. That intimidated the GOP immensely and they backed off of doing it, in spite of significant pressure from the Rumpster, as a result. The same fate would befall Roberts or Kavanaugh or Thomas and they would then just refuse to rule on anything controversial after this.

This would leave a bunch of split lower court rulings on controversial issues to govern our country in chaos. Until the Democrats deliver a solid court, we can't rely upon the court to bring about progress. The best we can do is intimidate them into inaction and then do the work on the ground to build up power. Ban them from making outside income, force them to recuse themselves on cases where's there a conflict of interest (and dock their pay if they refuse...they don't control the purse strings) and make things as uncomfortable for them as humanly possible. They'll eventually get the message the way that FDR was able to deliver it to them decades ago.

The conservative willingness to overturn precedent started long before this. Scalia's opinion on the second amendment in Heller is a clear reversal of stare decisis (150 years of court decisions that said the opposite)

"Richard Posner, judge for the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit......{stated that Heller} created a federal constitutional right that did not previously exist, and he asserts that the originalist method – to which Justice Antonin Scalia claimed to adhere – would have yielded the opposite result of the majority opinion.

The text of the amendment, whether viewed alone or in light of the concerns that actuated its adoption, creates no right to the private possession of guns for hunting or other sport, or for the defense of person or property. It is doubtful that the amendment could even be thought to require that members of state militias be allowed to keep weapons in their homes, since that would reduce the militias' effectiveness. Suppose part of a state's militia was engaged in combat and needed additional weaponry. Would the militia's commander have to collect the weapons from the homes of militiamen who had not been mobilized, as opposed to obtaining them from a storage facility? Since the purpose of the Second Amendment, judging from its language and background, was to assure the effectiveness of state militias, an interpretation that undermined their effectiveness by preventing states from making efficient arrangements for the storage and distribution of military weapons would not make sense."

Previous court decisions had always held that gun ownership was a collective right rather than an individual right. (The wording about militias in the constitution seemed to make that crystal clear, until Scalia made up a new meaning for it)

r12, again, it does depend on where you live (I live in liberal NYC where anyone can get free condoms easily.) There are still religious backwaters where condoms are behind a pharmacy counter. Some employers (Hobby Lobby, notoriously) will not offer birth control coverage as part of their health insurance plans. Some doctors require an office visit (co-pay, ka-ching!) every 6 months in order to get refills for the pill. Most doctors won’t perform tubal ligations on women who haven’t given birth already, won’t perform them on women in their 20s (“you may change your mind, sweetheart.”). I don’t know about vasectomies. Government benefits still provide incentive for proliferating. I don’t know about the availability of birth control for women on Medicaid, however.

With the stroke of a pen, obtaining birth control can become even more onerous and expensive. WHY the fundies object to “family planning”, I don’t know, but they do. ALL fundies of all flavors (Christian, Jew, Muslim) force women to be baby makers.

Which is fine, if that’s what a religious woman wants. It’s not fine to use the laws to impose that on everyone else.

Why? r5

If I were an entrepreneur i would start a business manufacturing wire hangers. Roe is dead.

they aren’t taking away abortions, they’re just taking away the right to a safe one. There always will be butchers willing to provide the service. They’ve forgotten what it use to be like..

Most DLers will defend Roe with their lives, because Roe is so critical to gay men.

Clarence "Uncle" Thomas, "Strip Search Sammy", and Bart "I Like Beer" O'Kavanagh get hard at the thought of millions of sexy, slutty teen bitches in heat getting knocked up!

How many abortions did Kavanaugh pay for?

Roe v. Wade was passed by a Republican nominated Supreme Court with Conservative Chief Justice who voted with the majority.

How about not having sex until one is in a committed relationship and both partners want children? How archaic!!!

R23 probably has sex with strangers in bathrooms

Yes.

Progressives took it for granted & instead pushed T & prostitution.

Elections have consequences. Get your wire hangers!!! Half price off!!!

R25 is a freeper moron. Yes, let's blame progressive and trans people instead of far right loons

It's nobody's business whether or not a woman has an abortion. I don't get it why this is happening.

These things take FOREVER to get to court; it's likely this won't go anywhere before Nov 2020.

R4, my mother had an abortion in the 1950s in NYC - all of her HS school friends knew where to go THEN. The problem was raising the cash.

R29 too bad it wasn’t you!!!

I don't think the Court will actually overrule Roe. However, there is a great possibility that the Court will approve some rather severe sanctions on the timing of the procedure. The original Roe decision is, unfortunately, based upon the status of medicine as it existed at the time. The decision tried to "parse" the right of a woman to abort based upon viability of the fetus. Viability has become more possible earlier in pregnancy. The "heartbeat bills" probably can't survive. Alabama's bullshit certainly will not.

It is very possible that Roberts will vote not to overturn Roe. I'm not even certain Kavanaugh would (believe it or not). Thomas is an idiot, so he probably would. Gorsuch probably is another vote to overturn.

The whole overrule issue is going to come down to the reasoning in Roe about viability. Later term (second trimester) abortions are very likely in danger.

Can the trans get a pseudo-abortion?

No - abortion is a vote getter for Republicans only. They use it at whim to distract voters or to draw attention away from larger issues (like Trump's involvement).