**Official** 2018 Midterms Thread Part 2!

Part 2

Oh no. On the phone at same time. Sorry. ^

Well that sucks OP.

Part 1.

[quote]The Liberation in Montana just bowed out and said to vote for the Republican. Tester (D) is up 4 points before the announcement.

Could potentially be bad news for Tester.

No it won’t. Anyone that is truly Republican would vote Republican regardless of what the Libertarian said. A Libertarian in Montana is suspicious.

Republicans lead dems by about 64,000 early votes in Florida. Hopefully the independents break heavily democratic.

Florida vote tallies so far

Pod Save America today is making me anxious. Informative, however.

I still want to see some website somewhere that is comparing the early voting statistics to those seen in 2014 and 2016. The numbers by themselves don't say much. The only conclusion we can draw thus far is that we are likely to see turnout that we haven't seen in a couple of decades.

For info on early voting tallies, The @ElectProject Twitter feed is updated regularly until Election Day. Right now, 18 states have surpassed their 2014 early vote tallies.

Texas has surpassed their entire 2014 vote total, both early voting and Election Day (caveat: in the 30 reporting counties, home to 78% of Texas voters).

No wonder Cruz has been nervous. Texas voters, both Republican and Democrat, are really energized.

Another early vote guru, focused specifically on Arizona.

Alleged Latino voter apathy kills me. Yes I know they're a complex and diverse artificial demographic.

This is the kind of analysis I wish more sites did, to help put the early voting into context.

[quote]On the other hand, early voting data can be misleading. The night before Election Day in 2016, Hillary Clinton led early voting in Florida by almost 4 percentage points (247,000 votes), and appeared to have the election in the bag. But Trump voters still managed to overcome that by turning out in larger numbers on Election Day, allowing him to eke out a final victory by 1.2%, or 113,000.

[quote]In Florida, as of Tuesday about 60,000 more registered Republicans had voted than Democrats, but that was half the margin (140,000 votes) at the same stage of early voting in 2014. Of those, there were 455,000 more Democrats who had cast ballots as of Monday in Florida than in 2014 at the same stage, compared to 374,000 more Republicans, according to Daniel Smith, a political scientist and data miner also at the University of Florida.

So Republicans have the lead in Florida's early voting but with less than half the margin they had in 2014 at this stage.

Sorry, this was the link for R16. One more note about Florida:

[quote]Breaking down data showed that among the 1.25 million early in-person voters, turnout of whites had roughly doubled (up 97%) compared to 2014, while among blacks it was up nearly two and a half times, and among Hispanics and other racial-ethnic groups, turnout had tripled.

Nevada vote-counting guru. He's mostly shrugging his shoulders on the big ones. Everything below is from the blog:

U.S. Senate: Toss-up

Governor: Toss-up

CD3: Toss-up

CD4: Heavy lean D

State Senate: D at least 12 with a chance at 14 (out of 21)

Assembly: D at least 26 with a chance at 28 (out of 42)

The rurals have negated the Clark County advantage the last couple of days, allowing the Repubs to gain ground. Lead is only 2.6 percent now; it had been close to 3 percent.

The story is coming down to this: Dems probably hope to get to at least a 3 percent statewide lead by the end of the week and then hope to hold their own on Election Day. If the Clark firewall is big enough, there will not be enough rural votes on Election Day to offset them.

In deep red Kansas, 17 people showed up at a Topeka Holiday Inn to see Steve Bannon (free continental breakfast in the AM).

Best response:

That's not a "micro-rally." That's a bridge foursome and a moldering carcass of hubris and delusion encased in filthy garments from LL Bean's 1985 "Muttering Hobo" Fall Collection.

New CNN Polls

ARIZONA

Kyrsten Sinema (D) 51%

Martha McSally (R) 47%

**

NEVADA

Jacky Rosen (D) 48%

Dean Heller (R) 45%

Thanks, Poll Troll. There are new Fox News polls out, as well:

Arizona: Tie (46 to 46)

Missouri: Tie (45 to 45)

Tennessee: Blackburn (R) +9 over Bredesen (D) (50 to 41) [Ouch]

Indiana: Donnelly (D) +7 over Braun (R) (45 to 38, with 5 points to the third-party candidate Brenton)

North Dakota: Cramer (R) +9 over Heitkamp (D) (51 to 42) ]Double ouch]

Yes, thanks, R22.

I just saw Harry Enten & Nate Cohn reporting on those and was going to post them too, but you beat me to it. :)

In Arizona, that puts the last four polls at Sinema +3, +6, +4, and a tie.

Oh, sorry, PT. I should have known you'd post them. Next time, I'll wait a few, as we all like hearing from you, specifically.

From Dave Wasserman: New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.

That's interesting. That was the group that just in the last couple of weeks shifted the forecast the other way. On October 19th, Cook wrote:

[quote]Today, Democrats seem more in line to score a net gain of between 20 and 40 seats. Democrats need a pickup of 23 seats, so a continued Republican majority is possible, just fairly unlikely. A 30-seat gain is at the center of that bell curve of probabilities. A week or two ago, the broader estimate of 25-45 seat Democratic pickup seemed quite plausible, with a 35-seat gain in the middle quite likely, but there was a caveat then—that the odds of Democratic gains north of 45 seats was greater than under 25 seats. Now, a gain of over 40 is still more likely than under 20, but the GOP is in a bit less peril.

[quote]Oh, sorry, PT. I should have known you'd post them. Next time, I'll wait a few, as we all like hearing from you, specifically.

That's okay. It makes sense for other people to post polling updates, as well. :)

Michael B Jordan is nocking on doors in Georgia to get black people to the polls.

[quote]The Liberation in Montana just bowed out and said to vote for the Republican. Tester (D) is up 4 points before the announcement.

I'm actually surprised that this isn't a regular strategy by Repugs everywhere. We all know Libertarians are Repugs anyway.

And, there are no vote totals for early voting available anywhere. No one is counting votes yet. All you can tell is who mailed their votes in and who they usually vote for. This year, that means nothing.

Tester has led in every single poll this year.

538 gives him an 85% chance of winning:

Early voting is giving an edge to Republicans in Florida. I'm also worried about Walker winning in Wisconsin. But as long as the Dems win the House, nothing else will matter.

R32, see R16. That edge in Florida isn't what it looks like.

[post redacted because independent.co.uk thinks that links to their ridiculous rag are a bad thing. Somebody might want to tell them how the internet works. Or not. We don't really care. They do suck though. Our advice is that you should not click on the link and whatever you do, don't read their truly terrible articles.]

WTH? Well, since I can't link to the actual article, here's a Reddit thread about the article that talks about youth voting being up over 500% in Texas and Georgia!

And, now the original link shows up. Oookaaay...

Anyway, maybe it took Trump to get the youth vote to wake up, finally. Fingers crossed.

R35 this is why I don’t believe surveys that say minorities in Texas are not voting. It has been known for 2 years now that Texas has had a record number of Hispanics registering to vote. And you are going to tell me there won’t be an increase in the Hispanic vote? Ridiculous.

Anyone here post at Daily Kos?

Voted last week in Texas, voted for every democrat on the ballot. If there was no democrat, which was happily very few races, i voted for the libertarian or green. I'm well aware that Beto's chances are slim to none but if he can crack high 40's that's a good sign.

I believe in Beto. I think he will take Texas away from Cruz. I'm glad that the polls show him behind Cruz. It gets people to the polls. He's not trailing too far though.

Come knock on my door Michael B Jordan with you fine sassy ass. I'll be right here.

So Oprah will be knocking on doors in Georgia? I'm not sure that is the best use for her there. She needs to call out this guy during a tv interview. Otherwise, it will just be about housewives screaming at their front doors when they recognize her.

Hillary did a robocall for Stacey in May, I wonder whether she gets involved as well in the next few days. She sure can get black women to the polls.

Hunny I don't think African American women need any incentive to go to the polls. They will show up. They will be present. They votes. And you know what? They were the ones who saved our asses in a few off year races. They are a powerhouse. They put the rest of us to shame.

R44 right on.

[quote]They are a powerhouse.

They really are!

Texas Congressional candidate MJ Hegar and her kids were harassed by her opponent's minions while trick-or-treating.

Yay poll troll. That means it’s countdown to election!!

How do we know absentee/ mail ballots will be counted in Texas? Unless I misheard, NBC said around 74% of Hispanics voting in 2018 are voting by mail?

Those ballots will be siting ducks in places like Texas .

Lindsay Graham is doing whirlwind campaigning all over the country, praising using the military to confront the caravan, and delivering potty-mouth rhetoric demanding punishment of Democrats that opposed Kavanaugh. Republican candidates depending on Lindsey Graham to get elected is darn bizzare.

I'm gonna listen to my heart. It's gonna tell me what to do. I don't need Jennifer Rubin and I don't need Boot.

Lindsey, Kavanaugh was a MONTH ago. MOVE THE FUCK ON ALREADY!!!!!

Everybody else has.

Lindsey is trying to make a national name for himself to run for office again. No doubt in my mind. His filthy mouth is theater and a lot of people who used to consider him a moderate have written him off for good. Trying to keep the Kavanaugh debacle alive is a double-edged sword. It cuts both ways and it will also act as an incentive for people who hate Kavanaugh and how that whole mess was handled.

What's the new racist ad that has everyone in a knot? Trump unleashed some horrible ad yesterday? I wonder how many times the news media will play it so they can "report" on how terrible it is?

Fingers crossed for Stacey Abrams!

Wife and I did our part: early voted D ticket in Texas. Line was long and we were all grinning and upbeat. Go BETO!

Any ND people on DL? Your state is becoming a non-democracy.

It's migrant panic vs. health care. In the EU, they already have health care...

Prediction: The “surprise” story coming out of the midterms will be Republican women. Their votes against Republicans will make the blue wave bigger than expected.

Kavanaugh, the intended damage towards the right to choose, the Pittsburgh shootings and the MAGA bomber, added to Trump’s daily repulsive behavior haven’t driven a huge swath women away from the party.

Oh and HEALTHCARE.

Are Dems more likely to catastrophize in advance of elections? Because I'm freaking out about ... the usual (Russia, voter suppression, gerrymandering). No trolling — just want to know I'm not alone. I'm eating lots of carbs — ramen just now. Fuckity fuck fuck fuck.

Tsk-tsk....awfully high in sodium!

Remember Ebola in 2014

If Georgia elects Desantis over Gillum, they deserve everything that's coming to them.

Pssst, r64, you mean Florida.

LOL, R65, yes. Was obsessing over Georgia two minutes ago.

Trump's "Willie Horton" ad. It's official: Republicans have nothing to run on this year. Hence: fear.

R67, that article is infuriating. "Maybe god will touch Trump's heart and make him open the border" is not a responsible hope on which to base dragging children thousands of miles in intense heat and humidity, without absolutely reliable sources of food and medical care.

I've been feeling panicky, too. But then I decided. Even if we win, Tuesday, things are really fucked up and we really have to keep working. So we win little or a lot, we stii ll have a fucked up mess to clean up. We can't stop working.Lower your expectations. Keep working.

Sorry, I posted the wrong link. Here's the link to Trump's new ad.

R68, that should tell you something about the desperate conditions they left, that they felt they had no choice but to make this journey. In any case, if you'd like to continue that discussion, the article was also linked to the current thread on the migrant caravan.

Why couldn't the Dems run some ads with these beautiful, pitiful, sad, scared little kids and just say, " Nino fled with his mother from the violence in Honduras. He has traveled 2000 miles on foot depending on handouts of food and shelter along the way. There are hundreds of children just like him. These are the "criminals" Donald Trump is calling up the United States Army to fight against. All Nino is hoping for is a safe place. Instead he will get military force." I'd show the stock footage of violent scenes from these places and then close with photos of desperate kids and the tag line, "we used to be better than this."

R72, I think because the majority of Americans aren't super sympathetic to the migrants. Not saying they shouldn't be, but I don't think they are. The majority, maybe a slim majority. On the NPR Politics podcast yesterday one of the reporters was saying how, when she was in suburban NJ this week, she kept hearing about the caravan from so many people, and they were negative about it. The Dems are trying to win those suburban voters...

[quote]If Florida elects Desantis over Gillum, they deserve everything that's coming to them.

DeSantis has gone loco. Every tweet is now the same;

Ron DeSantis Verified account @RonDeSantisFL

Let's ensure this happens! Go vote today and stand with me, a veteran and former prosecutor. Together, we can protect our state and secure our future!

5 days. I’m the candidate who stands with our law enforcement while Andrew Gillum who has pledged to abandon them. Your vote matters in election. Early vote, vote-by-mail…just GO VOTE!

It's an honor to receive the Jewish Press endorsement. I'm a strong supporter of Israel and was proud to play a role in moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. As Governor, I will work tirelessly to strengthen Florida’s partnership with Israel.

Thank you, President @realDonaldTrump for being in Florida this evening. I am grateful for your support in this election and your confidence that, as a veteran and former prosecutor, I am the right person to lead Florida!

As a former prosecutor, I’ve worked with the FBI to bring people to justice. When @AndrewGillum has dealt with the FBI, it has been with an undercover agent as a person of interest in an investigation.

So they have their Willie Horton ad. Could turn it around for the GOP.

Hey just run news clips of Charlottesville, Squirrel Hill, Parkland, news clips about the MAGABomber. Voice over. "This is what the Republican Party stands for. Don't get mad, get even!"

I loved it when Joe Biden said, We know who they are. We know who they are. Now we need to ask the question: Who are we??? Is this who we are? " Damn that should be all over TV. They don't need to shoot ads all they need is to edit a bunch of news clips with a voice over.

There DOES need to be an ad that responds to this. With lots of money behind it. Like today!

The Democrats will take the House. The question will be by how much?

It is disappointing to hear Republicans are very likely to hold the Senate, possibly even picking up 2 or 3 seats. A major wave would be that the GOP loses a few incumbent Senate seats and the Democrats hold their own. The Senate math is harder for Democrats due to the signifcant larger number of seats they are defending and their locations.

It should have been anticipated many months ago that Trump and Republicans would be running again against illegal immigration. It is disappointing the Democrats are not fully prepared in presenting a unified, non-pandering, serious but reasonable and moderate, comprehensive policy on the issue. It is too disjointed and piecemeal in countering Trump's grandstanding and untruthful declarations. Democratic countering needs organized rapid responses with Trump's falsehoods exposed.

I'm pissed off about Heitkamp. She should not be so far behind. She is a stand up Senator. I hope McCaskill survives and Nelson, too. Maybe they will gain a seat but I don't want to see incumbent Dems defeated. That is my main point.

Rare drop in NRA election spending as gun-limit groups rise

R72 - the Dems won’t (can’t?) run such an ad because they know, a sizeable number - maybe even a majority - of Americans don’t want the caravan coming to gain entrance, the migrants to get status. So if the Dems ran such an ad, it would actually hurt them and play into Repub arguments about Dems being “weak” and that they care more about “them” than Americans. No win for Dems.

I’m still hopeful but I admit, my hope level has plummeted over the last month. Every analysis I’ve read on multiple sites - The Hill, Politico, Cook, RCP, etc. - are still saying the Dems have the better chance to win the House, but by what number keeps shrinking. I know a win is a win, but they’re saying now the Dems will probably have a smaller majority than anyone thought - one even said “razor thin”. From what I’ve read, it looks like it comes down to just 14 seats. If the Repubs pull them, while they will have lost seats, they’ll keep control. If Dems get them, they’ll gain control. All 14 are toss ups. From “blue wave” to 14 seats worries me.

Adding to my unease is the article posted on another thread about millenials not voting and why. There was also an excellent piece I think in Politico where the author went to these suburban affluent neighborhoods where traditionally Repub seats are now competitive with Dems within striking distance. He wanted to see what the change was about, speak to the affluent college educated women who we’ve read are/have turned on Trump. He found that there were a few converts, but what made me feel uneasy was a number of women in this category he spoke with admitted either they just told their friends they’d vote Dem, but they won’t they plan to stick with the Repub candidates; or, while they will not vote for the Repubs, they also say they “can’t” vote for the Dems either. This, the silent voters who won’t admit publicly, but will vote R behind the curtain is concerning especially in some districts that are in virtual ties.

Like I said, I’m still hopeful, but it’s a tempered hope now. I’m bracing for disappointment next Wednesday, but will be happy to be proven wrong, knock wood.

[quote]It should have been anticipated many months ago that Trump and Republicans would be running again against illegal immigration.

It was, since Republicans were doing that from the beginning of the year, trying to paint Democrats as wanting "open borders." However, Trump's stupidity took the wind out of their sales and the images of the kids in cages scuttled those plans. So immigration largely dropped off the radar until this caravan.

[quote]It is disappointing the Democrats are not fully prepared in presenting a unified, non-pandering, serious but reasonable and moderate, comprehensive policy on the issue.

They are, and have. But a unified, non-pandering, serious but reasonable and moderate, comprehensive policy on the issue does not lend itself well to sound bites and political advertising. You don't counter a "Willie Horton" ad with that.

Typo: "sails," not "sales."

Scott Walker is gross. Can't believe WI people elected him twice — three times, if you count the failed recall.

I hate how it has to come to the edge — the destruction of our democracy, entrenching one-party rule via gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc. — for people to vote.

It's always like that. 9/11 had to happen for us to create the Department of Homeland Security (for better or worse). The BP oil disaster had to happen for us to ... I'm not sure what... but it does always seem like massive disasters have to happen (I guess in this case the disaster has been the last two years) for people to wake up and demand/effect change.

The media is doing the horse-race drama to motivate both Democrats and Republicans being glued to the TV to enhance ratings and sell ads.

Watching John King and Chuck Todd makes me turn them off. These are Trumpian types trying to sound balanced but doing a poor job st it. King had the audacity of shows clips of Maxine Waters and Hillary as if they motivated the failed mail bomber, but qualified or dismissed DJT's rhetoric.

"of" it; "to show"

"This is distracting, divisive Donald at his worst," Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez told CNN. Perez characterized the commercial as "dog whistle politics" based on "fear-mongering" and a desperate move ahead of the midterm election. Pollsters have predicted the Democrats will gain a majority in the House of Representatives.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday pushed back against critics who have labeled him and others in the GOP as racist, telling an interviewer that such criticism is a sign that Democrats are growing desperate in their efforts to win back power in Washington.

“You know the word ‘racist’ is used about every Republican that’s winning,” he told Christian Broadcasting Network’s Jenna Browder en route to a campaign rally in Florida. “Anytime a Republican is leading, they take out the ‘R’ word, the ‘racist’ word. And I’m not anti-immigrant at all.”

Wall Street is backing Democrats for the first time in a decade

Good info on this Twitter page by @tbonier

[quote]The number of people under the age of 30 who have already early voted in Texas, never having voted at all before (137,762), exceeds the TOTAL number of first time voters in any other state.

[quote]Look at this comparison of the '14 and '18 early vote (same # of days before election day) for Texas by age. In '14 voters age 65+ were 47% of votes cast. This year they are only 34%.

[quote]Well over 200,000 people who have NEVER voted in any election before now have already cast a ballot in Texas. The state with the second highest number of first time voters, CA, has only 78,000. Keep that in mind as you assess the polls in Texas.

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[quote]The NC voting thus far has gotten lots of attention, with folks suggesting that it's looking bad for Dems, largely due to a drop in the black vote share relative to '14. Keep in mind, GOP voter suppression efforts depressed the black vote share in '16 as well.

[quote]What's interesting is that, while we're seeing a big decline in the vote share of registered Dems, the GOP vote share has dropped too (by much less). Unaffiliated voters are surging, which is rare for a midterm election.

[quote]But when we look at modeled party (which will account for the partisanship of many of the unaffiliated voters), we find that there has actually been a slight increase in the Dem vs GOP advantage.

[quote]So what's causing the surge in NC? Young voters. Voters under the age of 40 were 10% of votes cast at this point in '14, and are now 15%.

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[quote]Early vote data is not perfectly predictive of final results. One party can build an early vote lead simply by cannibalizing their election day vote. But look at which side is turning out unlikely voters at a higher rate. That is meaningful.

[quote]949,143 people have already cast a ballot in the general election who are voting for the first time. Among those voters, Democrats enjoy an 8% advantage, in terms of modeled partisanship. That's significant.

[quote]Over 1.5 million people under the age of 30 have already voted in this country, despite many states making it near impossible for younger people to vote early. This is compared to only 563,000 votes cast in the same time period in 2014.

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What we know so far via @TargetSmart:

1) #YouthVote broken registration records;

2) They've turned out in specials & primaries;

3) They're telling pollsters they're much more likely to show than '10/'14;

4) They're change in T/O is +350% in PA, NV, TX, GA & 100% in FL, AZ.

I'm glad that more are voting, OK? But I want to know, of the number of ELIGIBLE voters, how many have voted or will vote? Because if the eligible voters numbers are like, 100000 people and you tell me, well, 10,000 voted and that's up from 4000 last time, it still is not enough. We need to push harder. Don't feel over confident or too satisfied.

I'm going to stick with John King and CNN on numbers. Steve Kornacki gets on my nerves. And he's really not that good.

Kornacki will just increase my already over the top anxiety.

A decent analysis of the TargetSmart data if you want it in a post form rather than a Twitter feed.

tl;dr: there is reason for Democrats to be cautiously optimistic in many of these close races.

[quote]Traditional battleground states have seen significant increases in early vote rates, especially among younger and non-white voters. In Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, voters aged 18–29 have all at least doubled their early vote turnout compared to 2014, with young voters increasing their early vote rate by 364% in Nevada and 411% in Pennsylvania. African-American early vote turnout is up 327% in Nevada and 203% in Pennsylvania. In several states, the surge in turnout among Hispanic voters outpaces that of all other voters, including in Arizona, where Hispanic turnout increased by 81%

Re: Georgia and Texas:

[quote]In both states, young voters aged 18–29 have increased their early vote rate by nearly five times or more. African-American early vote rates have more than double compared to 2014, and Hispanic turnout has surged massively in both states.

None of this indicates a sure thing. A surge in early voting, as R93 notes, could be just that the same voters who always vote are voting early rather than waiting for Election Day. Still, the turnout among some of the core Democratic constituencies is still pretty good.

Directly to R93's point, by the way: in Texas, the total number of early votes, as of yesterday, exceeds the total number of votes cast in 2014, counting both early votes and Election Day votes. So we're not just cannibalizing the Election Day votes; this surge is real.

Another decent analysis of the early voting trends. The potential is here to have the highest turnout midterm election since the mid-1960s. And if we break above 50%, it will be the highest since 1914. Clearly, both Democrats and Republicans are energized and motivated. In Texas:

[quote]At this point in 2014, voters under age 40, who lean Democratic, made up just 11 percent of the Texas early vote, while those over age 65 made up fully 47 percent of the electorate. That’s shifted dramatically: Voters under 40 are currently accounting for 21 percent of the electorate, and voters over 65 are down to 34 percent of the electorate.

In Georgia, the early voting shows that African-Americans represent roughly 31% of the early vote. Both Democrats and Republicans believe that the tipping point for Stacey Abrams is that she needs the black turnout to be over 30%. Again, though, if all she's doing is cannibalizing the Election Day vote and the percentage drops on Election Day, then she could easily lose.

In Nevada, the Democratic firewall is Clark County. Currently, Democrats have a 33,000 vote edge. They need a 35,000 vote lead in that county to feel comfortable going into Election Day and it looks sa though they might get it. According to the analysis at the link, "it appears that Republicans are turning out more people who vote normally, while Democrats are turning out more low-propensity voters, a key difference."

In Arizona, where Republicans had been outvoting Democrats by 10-point margins in the early voting, the GOP margin has now shrunk to a 6-point margin the last few days, and on Tuesday, it was a 2-point margin.

Montana and Indiana are going down to the wire. They also claim that Florida isn't quite as positive as it has looked:

[quote]In Florida, home to hard-fought races for governor and Senate, the data paints a mixed picture as well. Early vote numbers much more closely match private polls from both sides that show close races than public polling that’s found Democrats with more comfortable leads.

More at the link.

It's also worth calling out that the early voting analyses can include some basic demographic information, as well as party affiliation, but cannot tell how someone voted. Both parties have claimed that there is a secret groundswell of people affiliated with the other party who will be voting for the opposite party in this election, e.g., Democrats who are secretly in favor of Trump and Republicans but not willing to admit it in public or to pollsters.

Treat all such claims with skepticism. And vote / donate / volunteer as though every single vote counts because in a lot of these elections, it probably does.

[quote]the surge in turnout among Hispanic voters outpaces that of all other voters, including in Arizona, where Hispanic turnout increased by 81%.

This is why Arizona will turn blue. The top states where Hispanics have registered to vote since 2016:

1. Arizona

2. California

3. Texas

4. Nevada

6. Illinois

7. Colorado

8. New Mexico

9. Virginia

10. Ohio

The most outrages part of this is that DNC has only allocated 3 million to target Hispanic voters while the GOP has spent 70 millions in targeting Hispanic voters.

We WILL take the House

We WILL WIN Gubernatorial races

We WILL GAIN SEATS in the Senate to at least deadlock it

President Trump’s closing argument for the midterm elections includes a tweet featuring convicted cop killer Luis Bracamontes, who killed two Sacramento-area deputies in a 2014 rampage.

The tweet features video of Bracamontes spewing profanities while on trial in Sacramento County Superior Court, a frequent occurrence in the years of court hearings he faced.

But the president’s claim that “Democrats let him into our country” is not entirely accurate, and neither is the claim that “Democrats let him stay.”

Bracamontes, who is now on death row at San Quentin State Prison for the October 2014 slayings of Sacramento County Sheriff’s Deputy Danny Oliver and Placer County Sheriff’s Deputy Michael Davis Jr., first came into the United States in 1993, when he was 16 and Democrat Bill Clinton was president.

He was deported during Clinton's second term and returned when Bush was president, was deported and returned again in 2002 when Bush was still president.

KEEP WORKING! DON'T STOP!

NY Times.....

Mystery of the Midterm Elections: Where are the Russians?

I don't have high confidence there will not be hacking and tampering in certain precincts and maybe state-wide where Republican operatives handle the voting apparatus. Hopefully, such will be minimal. Also, Vladie's agents may be more low-key this round, but attempting to hack or bribe into vulnerable machines and computer systems would not be pass them.

Georgia, Texas, and Florida are already being watched for trickery.

Just one poll.

r107, LOL! Busted again!

LOL Andrew Gillum's grandma has become quite the useful campaign prop.

He just told Chris Hayes her analogy for "get out to vote so that you have your say":

"If you aren't at the table, you are on the menu."

If we lose North Dakota, hold the rest, and pick up both Nevada and Arizona, that would make it 50 - 50. That seems plausible.

That's a decent Emerson poll for O'Rourke, R112.

It shows that O'Rourke has narrowed Cruz's lead from the previous Emerson poll.

[quote] Even if Republicans hold the Senate, the margin by which they do so could be decisive for future elections. In contrast to the 2018 Senate map, which presented Democrats with very few opportunities for gains and exposed tons of vulnerabilities, the 2020 Senate map has several possible openings for Democrats. Republicans picked up nine seats from Democrats in the 2014 elections, including in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. That means Democrats will be able to play offense when those seats are up again in 2020 and may have a decent chance of flipping the chamber — as long as 2018 doesn’t dig them into too deep a hole.

Interesting that Gillum has made SEVERAL MSNBC hits over the past week. He was just on Maddow and MoJoe this morning. Is he trying to motivate the base?

Ms. Pence is triggered.

GURL, PREACH!

"I come as one but I stand as ten thousand."

"When you choose not to vote you are dishonoring your family. You are disrespecting and disregarding their legacy."

VOTE!!!!

What a bitch. Deluded, too. What's he ever done? Please.

Democrats Are Running Strong Campaigns In Kansas (Yes, Kansas)

The state voted for Donald Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2016. But Democrats are doing really well in the polls this year.

Looks like Huffpost finally got their link game together.

Concerning R121's link about Hawley using his official Attorney General office and its workers for his current run for Senator in Missouri and how that goes along with Kemp in Georgia and Kobach in Kansas remaining in their positions as Secretary of State, I think there needs to be some law of something put in place that you cannot run for a higher political position in your state unless you resign your current position, especially if it has such direct conflicts of interest.

Matt Yglesias:

Easy for this to get lost in the coverage but while there is considerable uncertainty about who will win the most House seats there is almost no uncertainty about which party will get the most votes.

18-29 year old turnout in early voting, compared to this point in 2014, is:

- 5x higher in Texas

- 5x higher in Nevada

- 4x higher in Georgia

- 3x higher in Arizona

Have to say, r118, I really liked:

"On one side, beloved American institutions. On the other, a man with as much charisma as an empty cottage-cheese tub."

OK I'm done. The final straw for me was MSNBC having on well known Republican A.B. Stoddard and having her declare that she thinks Democrats "won't do as well across the country" as everybody seems to think. The media REALLY wants their horse race and will do anything to try to get it. This is EXACTLY what happened in 2016, and we all know what happened then.

I'm done watching the main stream media for election news; I just can't do it anymore, not if they are going to continually act like whatever Trump says is fine and that it's the Democrats who are losing more and more steam every day.

And A. B. Stoddard? Fuck you.

I guess different things motivate different people. Hearing the above would make me even more determined to vote.

"Democrats in tough races throw their party under the bus"

[quote]"Democrats in tough races throw their party under the bus"

JUST WIN!!!

I been tellin' y'all. Stop watching the noise machine and just work on getting out the vote. The lies the smears the accusations the slant of the news, the "polls", et. Just work on getting out the vote.

Adoring masses await the arrival of Lindsey Graham as the Senator campaigns across American for Republican candidates. Lindsey is mad, mad, mad, that Democrats opposed the beloved Kavanaugh.

[quote]K I'm done. The final straw for me was MSNBC having on well known Republican A.B. Stoddard and having her declare that she thinks Democrats "won't do as well across the country" as everybody seems to think

I wouldn't worry about A.B. Stoddard's bullshit. I know it's frustrating to hear pundits spout off, but she has as much influence on the electorate as my morning after breakfast farts.

I'm watching the news coverage of West VA where Trump is going to be speaking this afternoon. He's not there for Manchin who is way ahead. But they were asking some woman in line to see Trump, who she supported and she said she had not made up her mind. She looked like she was in her late 60's. She was not your typical rowdy in-your-face MAGA. The reporter asked her what her main issue was. What was she most concerned with. And she said "Well.... (long pause)... immigration, I guess." Now as far as I know West VA isn't a border state and it doesn't seem to have a lot of immigration problems. But this woman obviously thought it was the right thing to say, because that is what the Republicans, and Trump especially is telling them to say.Trump and the GOP strategists set the agenda and the robots just follow along. If someone told this woman Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senate was going to cut Social Security & Medicare WTF would she have said? We will never know, but if she is a true Trumpanista she'd have said "Fake news!"

Sincere, heartfelt tweets from WH staffers:

Kellyanne tweet encourages Michigan to vote for Bill Schuster for Governor. (The candidate's name is Bill Schuette.)

Rudy tweet encourages Michigan to vote for Don James for Senator. (The candidate's name is John James.)

I have a bad feeling the GOP will end up with 53 Senators. We can pick up Arizona and Nevada. But we will probably not get Texas, and McCaskill and Heitkamp are in trouble, and it looks bad for both of them, moreso for Heitkamp. McCaskill is a longshot but she is still in the game. Nelson and Scott are too close. I hope like hell Scott loses. I hate that fucker and Florida is a corrupt rotten state.

I wouldn't want them to make a numbers increase either, but 51 or 53 makes fuck all difference when most votes are majority on party lines.

New Emerson College polls: In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp is at 49% with his Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams at 47%, Libertarian Ted Metz 1% and 2% undecided. If neither candidate reaches the 50% threshold on election day, Georgia will hold a run-off on December 6.

In Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Tony Evers is at 51% with Incumbent Republican Scott Walker at 46% while US Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is at 53% with her Republican opponent Leah Vukmir at 44%. In

The Iowa Governor race is within 4 points with incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) at 49% and Fred Hubbell (D) 45%, with 5% undecided.

I do not know about other states, but today, in Nevada, Democrats will approach the 40K early voting firewall number in Clark County/Las Vegas.

Remember, Nevada has a small population.

What this means is that every Democrat, local and state wide, will probably win by at least one vote not counting the Dems who vote on Tuesday.

Not counting the 15% of Republicans who hate what Trump has done to our country.

I believe THAT is what was being looked at when everyone saw the Nevada vote counts on Murphy Brown.

I am burning sage that it will be true.

But an update from the Gay Steve Kornaki of Nevada: (and yes I believe that Kornaki is Gay.):

Former GOP Senator John Warner of Virginia is encouraging people to vote for the Democrats. It's about the country now.

Jinx.

"He also hit Democrats as "loco" and a party of "rigid ideology and total conformity" at the second in a marathon of rallies before Election Day. Mr. Trump is in Columbia, Missouri, campaigning for Hawley, who is locked in a tight race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.

Mr. Trump kicked things off by bringing up McCaskill's risky vote against Supeme Court Justice's Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation. Later in the rally, Mr. Trump pushed that McCaskill supported Hillary Clinton and said she didn't "know the people."

Steve Kornacki is openly gay, it's not a secret r139.

RE; Steve Kornacki

[quote]and McCaskill and Heitkamp are in trouble, and it looks bad for both of them, moreso for Heitkamp. McCaskill is a longshot but she is still in the game.

You're right about Heitkamp but wrong about McCaskill. She's not at all a long shot, as the last few polls have had her ahead or even, or have been from pollsters with a huge Republican bias (e.g., Remington Research). Right now, she's at 3 in 5 odds to win.

For more info on the Nevada Clark County firewall, see the link. There just isn't much that Jon Ralston doesn't know about Nevada politics and vote-counting.

[quote]The Democrats are hoping for a repeat of Day 13 today, when they boosted Clark turnout to its highest total so far (31,400) and added more than 4,000 to the southern firewall. That puts it at 37,500, almost guaranteeing they get to 40,000, which I have said from the beginning would give them some comfort and give Republicans heartburn. It’s not a guarantee of victory, but with Washoe a wash, that would mean there has to have been little cannibalization of the rural vote and a huge Election Day turnout there for the GOP to have a good chance.

[quote]Some of you may wonder — and I have talked about this before — how predictive the Clark firewall is of results. The answer: Very. I have specific history from a couple of years (trying to get others, but trend is similar), which shows the pattern:

Lots more detail at the link for the true wonks.

It looks like Georgia voters got some relief and Kemp's plans to keep Democrats from voting got a serious setback.

Exit polling is getting a "makeover." They're making some changes to account for a changing electorate to see if the exit polling can be more accurate than it was in 2016.

27 states + Washington, D.C. have all now surpassed their 2014 early voting totals.

AZ, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, ME, MD, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NJ, NM, NV, OK, SC, TN, VA, WI, and WV

Heitkamp was down by 10 in 2012 when she won. And, they've really motivated the Native American vote with their newest crap about voter IDs with street addresses for people who live on reservations and don't use addresses.

R148, the exit polling was right. The vote was hacked in the three states where the polling was off.

The early voting in Florida is showing a nailbiter contest there, with one model that relies on the early voting numbers showing a generic Democratic candidate winning 48.51% and a generic Republican candidates winning 48.46% of the vote.

Take these numbers with a huge dose of skepticism but the point still stands that Nelson and Gillum may be under-performing what the polls have indicated by a small percentage. Using conventional polling, Nelson and Gillum are both in slightly better shape, with 538 insisting that Nelson has a 70% chance of winning and Gillum a 75% chance. Please note that these simply statistical analyses, not actual predictions.

I really want both of those races to go D, as Scott and DeSantis are pretty vile human beings.

Early voting nationwide in 2014 was 27 million people. This year, we've already passed that and may end up with as many as 35 million people voting before Election Day.

I think all the hype about the early voting numbers being so high is not actually that big a deal. I think more people are now aware of early voting as an option and are doing it because it's easier than showing up on a Tuesday in the middle of a work week. I think there is just going to be a lot fewer people voting on the actual election day.

The thing that I do think is a big deal is that it's a lot of young people showing up early. They like the convenience and seem to have finally figured out what early voting is. Although, as far as mail in voting, some of them still can't figure out where to get a stamp, so...

This same shit, like at R151, is what happened with Clinton. I think the polling and votes are being fucked with already. There is no fucking way DeSantis or any generic Repug polls higher in this climate unless the polling is fucked up.

Trump's final attempt to rile up his base will take place on Hannity's show Monday night. Hour-long interview. Deplorables may expect much fear to be stoked.

r146, Ralston is the STRAIGHT Kornaki in NV...

I hope Rosen pulls it out.

Based on the polls I’ve seen, Beto in Texas really doesn’t have a chance. I think the media is predicting a horse race, to drive up ratings.

Trump is so erratic, you never know what he might do. Perhaps he’ll do something extreme that turns more people off, throwing the election against many of his allies.

R158, those polls do not reflect what appears to be happening on the ground in Texas. A win for O'Rourke would be a long shot, clearly, and the safe thing would be to bet on Cruz. That said, Beto is making a race of it and if the "likely voter" model is not picking up changes in the electorate, there is at least a possibility that he will win.

There is no 'likely voter' model that is predicting a 500% increase in the under 30 vote, which is what is happening.

Trump's analysis of the election:

[quote]“We did have some stop the momentum that was incredible because for seven days nobody talked about the election to stop the momentum,” he said at a campaign rally in Missouri. “More importantly, we have to take care of our people, and we don’t care about momentum when it comes to a disgrace that happened to the country, but it did nevertheless stop a certain momentum but now that momentum is picking up.”

I tried running it through Google Translate but it crashed my browser.

I think one strategy the Dems should definitely re-learn from Cheeto is the perma-campaign.

Don't assume that once elected, people will again come out for you. Go back and back all the time so that people feel you are "connected" to them, and want to see them.

The other is the ground game. Don't assume minorities are in your column but organize better. That's what Garrett Haake was talking about re TX vs NV, that in NV the unions (esp. in Vegas-Cook County) like the Culinary union is good at organizing Latinos while that's lacking in TX (if I understood him correctly).

FWIW, a Co worker went to vote early last night after work. She said they had to wait for a parking spot to open up.

They had to wait in line because it was full so she asked the person working the polls if the turnout had been 5hat high all week and the poll worker told her the turnout is as high as a presidential election.

In Ohio.

Is the media predicting a horse race r158? I don't watch televised news but all the journalists I follow have talked about how Cruz is likely to win

I think we will see historic turnout among young people and minorities for this election. People are fired up.

Even the deplorables find Republicans in Congress despicable. Don't forget Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan were harassed by Republicans when repealing Obamacare was put on the table. The Trump supporters only care about Trump, they don't actually like any of the other Republican faces of their party.

Dems will win both chambers, impeach Trump unsuccessfully, and he will use that victim narrative to gain sympathy to win the 2020 election.

Most millennials do not have landlines so it's hard to get accurate polling data

Polling companies call cellphones r167, of course they do.

Yes, all major, credible pollsters today call both landlines AND cellphones to compile their sample sizes.

[quote]In Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Tony Evers is at 51% with Incumbent Republican Scott Walker at 46% while US Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is at 53% with her Republican opponent Leah Vukmir at 44%.

I think Evers has been ahead of Walker in every Wisconsin poll this Fall except one -- the Marquette Poll.

So the odds favor Evers, although forecasters point out that Walker is not down yet, and it can still be close.

R119, we even have moderate republicans making TV commercials supporting Democratic candidates for governor and Congress.

Black women will save the country

Trump acknowledges GOP could lose House: 'Could happen'

"I'm not saying they don't squeak it by," the president said of Democrats. "Maybe because they got a lot of races, and I can't go everywhere. Can't go everywhere."

Question: Assuming things go as predicted and the Dems win the house but not the senate, what are the practical implications of this result for the Dems to be able to thwart the Republican agenda for the next two years? Is it enough to hold one house of congress (seemingly the leas powerful of the two?) to at least create a stalemate when the Senate and executive branch remain Republican?

Subpoenas will rain down upon the grifters like an avalanche, r174.

The house committees have that authority and they will use it as a weapon as well they should.

The Democrats will do a REAL investigation into Trump and Russia and not a joke like that Nunes led Republican one was.

And that alone will make the Democrats getting back the House worth it.

Thanks, I get that the Dems will now have the power to subpeona and investigate Trump et al, but meanwhile what about the actual policies that affect civil rights, the environment, health care etc.? Will holding just the house enable them to effectively put a stop to the type of stuff thats been pushed through in the last two years, both new policies and the dismantling of Obama era policies?

Well... DeSantis views this as a God-send...

Ron DeSantis Verified account @RonDeSantisFL

The news of the shooting in Tallahassee is heartbreaking. Casey and I are praying for the families of the victim whose life was tragically taken tonight and those taken to the hospital with injuries.

Andrew Gillum's response;

Andrew Gillum Verified account @AndrewGillum

I’m deeply appreciative of law enforcement's quick response to the shooting at the yoga facility in Tallahassee today. No act of gun violence is acceptable. I'm in close communication with law enforcement officials and will be returning to Tallahassee tonight.

[quote]what about the actual policies that affect civil rights, the environment, health care etc.? Will holding just the house enable them to effectively put a stop to the type of stuff

Yes. Trump won't be able to pass laws if the House votes them down. Before a bill can become a law, both houses of Congress must pass identical versions of the bill. And only the House members can introduce bills on taxes and spending.

Basically, there may be a legislative stalemate. I'm sure Cheeto will drum up his Blame the Dems rhetoric. I hope the House Dems are smarter about this demagoguery and respond in a way to minimize any fallout on them.

DeSantis is lower than pond scum. He wants to use this tragic shooting to use negatively against Gillum at literally the 11th hour of this campaign; Aside from scum bucket Trump himself, I can't think of another politician who would so brazenly use other people's tragedies for their own political gain.

I hope if DeSantis does try to use this against Gillum that it backfires spectacularly on him.

Why is Pence so certain?

Boris, thoughts?

The Tallahassee shooter was probably a Trumpster.

r181, because Olga in HR actually did her fucking job and did cultural training. Nobody thinks the US has any culture except hip-hop and we know how well black training went with Mr. West.

Good news but Kemp probably won't comply with the court order.

Huffpost: GOP Rep. Steve Knight Removes Campaign Ad That Featured Racist Veteran

David Brayton, an Air Force veteran, once posted, “Hear me Islam, I will slaughter you with your own knife.”

Rep. Steve Knight (R-Calif.), who is running for re-election in California’s 25th Congressional District, removed a campaign ad on Wednesday that featured an endorsement from an Air Force veteran with a long history of posting racist, Islamophobic and anti-Semitic content online. The veteran, David Brayton, has also posted messages about murdering journalists.

Over the course of several years, Brayton has posted racist and violent memes of Democrat politicians, including one of President Barack Obama with a noose around his neck. He has also posted about killing Muslims, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday.

The early voting numbers are way up over 2014 more than double in many states, hopefully that means more people than normal voting, which will mean more Democrats than normal voting in mid-terms.

This thread is on and popin.

Dana Rohrabacher and Duncan Hunter — losing?

Poll troll, if you get around to it, can you tell me if the goose is already cooked?

Let’s say 60 percent of the vote is already in. Doesn't that mean, statistically speaking, that the numbers are already in?

It’s quite possible that most people have already voted. So does that mean these last minute stunts are too little too late?

R179, the Dems will not only investigate and subpoena everything and everyone but they will also pass popular healthcare, medicare, social security, immigration, civil rights, and tax bills and send them to the Senate where the Repugs, if they retain it, will have to take the wrong side on every single issue that is popular with the majority of America.

And, unpopular as it may be with some, I think Pelosi is the best person to get that legislation through. If the first thing Democrats do is start in-fighting about who is going to be Speaker, it will sink them. They need to stand together and stand strong. Pelosi knows what she's doing and knows all the tricks and where all the bodies are buried. She can run things for the next two years until we're out of this crisis and then she can hand off the Speakership to someone who has proven themselves a worthy successor. Right now, we need experience, not in-fighting and backstabbing and squabbling with the youngsters. We don't need our own version of the Repug's Tea Party with all the newbies whining and holding up legislation for their own agenda.

Tonight Rachel showed a chart of the gender breakdown of early voting by state. As far as I could see, in all (or almost all) states on the chart, women outpaced men. In GA voting by women was 10+ points above voting by men.

WTF

The Democrats need new leadership in the House.

R189, although early voting numbers have increased over the 2014 midterms, and more people vote early compared to voting practices in previous decades, the majority of people still vote on Election Day.

So there are a lot of votes still coming on November 6 that haven't been cast yet.

About 20 million people have voted so far.

I'm going to look up more updated figures later.

Jeeze.

Thank you PT. I was off with my guess.

R192 deserves it down thread.

Well, if you say so, R193. Such a well-informed argument you make there. So hard to disagree with. Sorry, but I'll just ignore your proclamation until you can point to anyone who has gotten anything done close to what Pelosi has done as Speaker. Hint: There is no one. Really, what magical person do you want to be Speaker? Ocasio-Cortez? Stop just spitting out crap you hear other people say and back up your opinions. If the newbies and the Bernbros start a war within five minutes of Dems taking over the House, they're going to fuck everything up.

Really hope blatant liar sociopath Josh Hawley loses for Missouri senator.

Someone out him, please.

[quote]...the majority of people still vote on Election Day.

Maybe that's not true anymore. We don't know yet. I actually think the amount of early voting will mean that fewer people vote on election day. It actually makes me nervous because it seems like having all those ballots and electronic votes just sitting there for weeks in some of these Repug states is just inviting more and new ways of cheating. Maybe Russia is just spending all of their time breaking into wherever the electronic early votes are stored and changing all of them. Who's going to know?

[quote]Sorry, but I'll just ignore your proclamation until you can point to anyone who has gotten anything done close to what Pelosi has done as Speaker.

Hmm... I have to UNFORTUNATELY disagree. I CANNOT stand him but you have to give Mitch McConnell credit. He's gotten a GOOD portion of the conservative agenda through. He stopped a Supreme Court Judge while getting two others through. He is STACKING the courts with conservative judges like he is on steroids. He got that awful tax plan through. That's not bad.... Well, it's bad but you know what I mean...

McConnell couldn't get Obamacare repealed, that was THE Republican rallying cry for years.

Mcconnell makes my skin crawl. If the wind had blown a little differently, he’d be chasing ambulances in the hills of Kentucky.

[quote]McConnell couldn't get Obamacare repealed, that was THE Republican rallying cry for years.

But, he's stacking the courts with Judges who will.

R200, McConnell is the Majority Leader in the Senate. He's not the Speaker of the House.

Deplorables think Mitch is a RINO.

You must bite the head off of an immigrant baby to prove you are one of them.

Sheldon Adleson is the person who got that agenda through. Mitch is a puppet. He’s the clerical assistant for adlesons shop. He signs the papers.

This lady in Georgia is going to win. I can feel it.

I understand that, R204. Thanks. But, my point is that he has (unfortunately) been effective in getting that mess of an agenda done.

[quote]But, he's stacking the courts with Judges who will.

The GOP majority in Senate is who is stacking the courts.

In a new interview with Vanity Fair, Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen recalls four explicit instances of Trump saying racist things about black people:

“Black people are too stupid to vote for me.”

“Name one country run by a black person that’s not a shithole. Name one city."

While traveling through a Chicago neighborhood: “Only the blacks could live like this.”

On a black finalist on “The Apprentice”: “There’s no way I can let this black f-g win.”

If you want to volunteer to help get out the progressive vote this link will hook you up to something local you can do to help.

This guy should be president:

Preaching Gospel Of Love And Justice, William Barber Mobilizes Progressive Christians

[quote]The GOP majority in Senate is who is stacking the courts.

Always remember that the Democrats held the majority at one point too. I know... I know... President Obama, (and everyone else), had to deal with saving the economy and then there was healthcare. But, these Judge openings were open under Obama and during a Democratic majority. Mitch McConnell and Republicans were successful in keeping them vacant.

I guess my point, (and it may not be fair), is that Democrats did not fight for these Judge appointments hard enough.

I LOVE REVEREND BARBER!

[quote]Maybe that's not true anymore. We don't know yet. I actually think the amount of early voting will mean that fewer people vote on election day.

There is no reason to doubt that voting on Election Day will outnumber the early voting, and by a sizable margin. Even if some people have been "cannibalized," i.e., voters who would vote on Election Day have simply moved to vote early, you still have some states that don't allow early voting, states where mail-in ballots are harder to maintain, and situations like Texas, where the number of early voters already exceeds the total number of voters that voted in 2014, so any voters at all on Election Day will drive up the numbers.

Instead of wringing your hands, go volunteer to help people vote, to phone bank to remind people to vote, and so on.

[quote]I guess my point, (and it may not be fair), is that Democrats did not fight for these Judge appointments hard enough.

Not really. It was just during the last two years, when Republicans controlled the Senate, that McConnell was able to shut down the pipeline, almost completely. There was literally nothing that Democrats could do.

And, this surprises "who", R210?

Fifties sexpot Mamie Van Doren (often discussed on DL as either a miraculously preserved oracle or a brunch server's nightmare) has chimed in on Facebook:

"Welcome Back, Chief—What a treat it was to watch Obama stumping for Andrew Gillum today in Florida. After the puerile rhetoric of the PUSSY GRABBER, it’s refreshing to be reminded that we once had a president who could speak in complete sentences, sentences that actually made sense. A president that played the hecklers like a banjo instead of threatening to punch them in the face. Obama speaks with the rhythms of a gospel preacher, the laser-accurate timing of Rodney Dangerfield, and a perfect neo-Richard Pryor deadpan delivery. I was grinning through the entire speech. I love Beto O’Rourke, but I hope he was watching today’s rally. It was truly a master class in political oratory.--mvd"

The latest article from Jon Ralston in Nevada highlights the problem that pundits have in trying to figure out what the hell is going on. The "likely voter" model, in particular, is driving pollsters nuts, as they simply do not know who will turn out. In Texas, for example, the early voting appears to be giving O'Rourke a bigger boost than most pollsters have predicted. He's still not favored to win but those numbers are pushing him into "margin of error" range where a win is possible, where the race might be settled by a couple of percentage points rather than 5 or 6 percentage points.

In Nevada, Ralson ran five models, with Rosen up in all of them, although by as little as 1,500 votes in one case. However, he then shows the New York Times polling model, which has Heller up by 2 percentage points. That was based on a turnout of 736,000 (which, as he notes is a significant undercount of the votes). The NYT model shows that Rosen would win by 4 if the total votes are in the million vote range.

The New York Times itself admits that: "People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone." So they have to weight their poll results. If they weight it incorrectly, as they did in some states in 2016, their estimates will be wrong.

Based on the early voting, the Times has underestimated the turnout, and Rosen appears to have a slight advantage. So which is really correct? We won't know until Election Day.

Mitch will resign at the end of his term. He will be 275 years old.

R218, Jon Ralston is an expert in Nevada politics, and has been tracking voting stats in that state for years, so it's always interesting to hear from him.

The Nevada Senate race will also come down to the effectiveness of Harry Reid's fame ground operation.

famed

I could be wrong (words you will never hear from Trump) but I think the Dems are going to sweep.

I didn’t know you could watch his service every week. Hopefully there is another way besides fraudbook.

“Only about 200 people typically worship each Sunday at the Greenleaf Christian Church in Goldsboro, N.C., but as many as 40,000 others follow the service via Facebook livestream.

That huge online following reflects the growing fame of the Greenleaf pastor, the Rev. William Barber. A passionate preacher, anti-poverty activist, and civil rights leader, Barber has emerged as perhaps the most important figure in progressive U.S. Christianity, even while serving his small local congregation. This month, he was one of 25 Americans to be awarded a coveted MacArthur "Genius Grant," with a no-strings-attached stipend of $625,000 over five years.”

My sister and brother-in-law live in Goldsboro, NC, and my brother-in-law is a friend of Reverend Barbour. I'd love to get the opportunity to meet him some day when I'm visiting. He seems like such a great guy.

[quote]Mitch will resign at the end of his term. He will be 275 years old.

That's young for a tortoise!

I love Barber but every time I see him I just wish he would lose some weight so he'll be around a lot longer. He already has trouble getting around and it makes me sad that a fat, useless fuck like Trump seems to have won the health lottery while good people like Barber suffer.

The Dems are working on this but Obama is right The only way to mute the fact that yes, they are rigging the election, and he said it out loud and repeated it twice in Georgia , is to vote in overwhelming numbers. YOU have to vote. Everyone has to get out and vote.

Jacky Rosen (D) has a narrow lead over Dean Heller in the Nevada race for Senate. You can't turn on the TV or go to Youtube in Nevada without seeing an anti-Jacky ad. Someone is pouring in big bucks to try to defeat her.

I'm real suspicious anytime races narrow. That's when those fuckers hack and steal.

Mitch died on the inside along time ago. He’s just a corpse. Doing the devil’s (Sheldon Adleson) work.

His dreams of finding love with a man in the military were crushed when he was outed and discharged, and his broken heart turned to stone. He vowed to spend the rest of his days on earth destroying all that is good and kind.

r228, that would be Shelly Adelson and Super PAC Future45.

And they are all suddenly narrow, it seems, R229. Fucking sucks.

The hack-and-steal is time honored tradition for the fascist right. I wonder if the recent treaty cancellation was a payment for election “consulting” if you catch my drift.

Someone explain to me why more votes means less hacking? They just switch more votes. Why would overwhelming numbers mute the effects of Russian interference?

No time to be nervous. Work the phone banks. It will help with the jitters.

We will help with consulting if you cancel the treaty so we can do whatever we want

Seems like a good deal all around.

Because it's harder to hide the hacking, R234. If the numbers don't match the voters and it's off by such a wide margin, that's when lawsuits get filed and voter recounts happen. When it's narrow, you can pretend that everything's fine.

A little levity: 2018 election: Test yourself with our ultimate midterms quiz

[quote]I'm real suspicious anytime races narrow. That's when those fuckers hack and steal.

But as the forecasters at 538 pointed out this week, part of the narrowing effect in a race is normal in the closing stages.

Voters start to pay closer attention, and sometimes undecided voters "come home" to their traditional parties and decide to support them.

I can't imagine how fast DL is going to be moving on Tuesday night! Better not go into primetime right in the middle of it all or we'll riot!

That's why I'll be drinking High Point on Tuesday night (my favorite time of day)!

Not sure whether to buy some champagne or not.

Don't you fucking dare, R242. That's called tempting fate! No, no, no! Just buy some booze you can drink either way, win or lose. Better to play it safe. Fate is a motherfucker and she's been on a roll with fucking us over for a while now. Don't piss her off!

I don’t drink liquor but perhaps a thimble of dram is in order.

Clark vote now at....48,000.

Going to go past 50K.

NBC released their internal midterm "book" that in the past has just been created for their journalists and on-air personalities at NBC/MSNBC. They're releasing it to the public this year.

Fascinating read.

[quote] No time to be nervous. Work the phone banks. It will help with the jitters.

We had a whole thread about DLers who cannot handle phone conversations at all. I can't imagine that they would be willing to do the phone banks.

I think they have text banks this year, too.

“Polling companies call cellphones [R167], of course they do.“

R168 - And when was the last time *YOU* answered a random call from an unknown number on *YOUR* cellphone?

Moveon.org will hook people up with text messaging

R249, they adjust for that. Their adjustments aren't always dead on but they haven't been that bad in the off-cycle elections.

That said, we really are in uncharted territory here, with turnout likely to be the highest in 50 years. That throws everyone's numbers off.

This is pure evil.

R253, would it kill you to at least copy and paste the headline?

I think there is room for surprises. I've put some cash in the futures market on repubs holding the House. The odds being what they are I'm risking very little for a potential nice payout. I've also bought 40 shares on Cory Booker for the dem nomination. Spartacus !

Win or lose, Hidekamp is a hero. She stuck her neck or and voted against these thugs even when the political winds were against her.

Out.

[quote] I've put some cash in the futures market on repubs holding the House.

How deplorable of you.

TargetSmart:

At this point in 2014, voters under the age of 30 had cast 849,876 votes. This year?

2,347,864 voters under the age of 30 have already voted, and counting.

I posted this in another thread, but it bears repeating:

Just remember. The Republicans are already set up to challenge the outcome of the elections. There will be challenges in nearly every fucking state. For sure in Florida, Georgia, and Texas. Probably Wisconsin too. The Democratic Party in every state is going to need money and a lot of lawyers to challenge because if the Republicans can delay or ignore the outcome they will. Be ready. Voting is not the end, it's the beginning of engagement. Remember what those fuckers did to Al Franken. How long did he have to fight to get his seat in the Senate? The other guy kept fighting him. Remember this, too: Hillary won the Presidency. The fucking Presidency. And they stole it. Right in plain sight. So don't put anything past these bastards.

Interesting take on polls, especially the difficulty of predicting turnout among younger people—emphasis on the Democrats' overperforming polls in recent elections.

The weather looks to be bad on Tuesday in a big chunk of the US. I always assumed that bad weather keeps older people inside, and if they lean repub (as they do where I live) that could be good for Dems.

Why New York State hasn't approved early voting stills confounds me.

R262, most states don't like spending money to upgrade infrastructure regarding voting machines, etc. or pay extra staff. Maybe that's one factor stopping NY from approving early voting.

Jon Ralston, the dean of Nevada vote-counting prognosticators, has come off the fence now that the early voting is done. He thinks that the Clark County firewall might well be sufficient to hold the Senate, Governor, State Senate, and Assembly for the Democrats.

U.S. Senate: Slight lean D

Gov: Slight lean D

CD3: Slightly lean D

CD4: Likely D

State Senate: D at least 12, chance at 14 (out of 21)

Assembly: D at least 26, chance at 28 (out of 42)

[quote]The bottom line: Republicans need a really good day Tuesday to stop Democrats from at least a pastel blue wave and it may get to navy blue if the Dems hold their own on Election Day. It appears that these elections are breaking for the Dems at the end.

Pelosi was on Joy Reid this am and was asked what the House Dems would do if they take the House.

Starts at 7:00

"We moved three close and competitive races from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic"

Florida Senate

Nevada Senate

Arizona Senate

Nine Southern states have implemented voting restrictions since 2012.

White Southerners are living out their fevered dreams of re-implementing Jim Crow era voting restrictions for minorities.

Hopefully, that law that is disenfranchising a couple thousand Native Americans in North Dakota has pissed them off enough to make every single one that can vote come out and hopefully that's more than the number they took the vote away from. It also leaves open the possibility that we can contest that election and fight it for a year or so through the courts.

Thanks, R265. Pelosi says: YOU CAN'T TALK ABOUT IMPEACHMENT UNTIL WE SEE THE RESULTS OF THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION.

She's not saying that impeachment is off the table, folks.

She wants his tax returns revealed, too.

Dems will flip the house but not by much. Senate stays much the same. Blue wave = Blue ripple. What lib social media fails to "get" is that old white haters vote. The rest not so much.

If you read R270's sentences as exactly the opposite of what the idiot wrote, you get to actual reality.

Don't think this has been posted yet.

Well, we'll see about that on Tuesday, R270, won't we.

You sound a little nervous about Republican prospects, by the way. I like that.

That Texas number in R272 is OFF the fucking charts. Go BETO!!!!

[quote]Dems will flip the house but not by much. Senate stays much the same. Blue wave = Blue ripple. What lib social media fails to "get" is that old white haters vote. The rest not so much.

Already backing off that stupid "Red Tsunami" rhetoric, I see.

I like this graphic.

[quote]Blue wave = Blue ripple.

Democrats flipping the House is a blue wave. The house is gerrymandered to the point that Dems need to win the popular vote by 6 points for the House to even be competitive. When Obama was reelected in 2012, the Dems got more votes for Congress but they still couldn't come close to flipping it. Them taking control of it means Americans are supporting them by huge numbers.

[quote]You sound a little nervous about Republican prospects, by the way. I like that.

[italic]Republicans[/italic] are a little nervous about Republican prospects. They've given up on a dozen candidates as lost causes. They are now trying to pour last-minute money into formerly safe seats. They're putting a six-figure last-minute ad buy into Alaska to try to save Don Young's seat there. Dana Rohrabacher in California is in real trouble for the first time in his career. Steve King in Iowa is in serious trouble for the first time in his career. They're trying to block these leaks everywhere and they simply do not have the resources.

These are not the actions of a party confident of a "red tsunami." Or wave. Or ripple.

I like this ad....

Even Trump(!!!) has acknowledged that Republicans might lose the House, they can't deny how strong the Democrats look heading into this election.

I wish they'd included this....

More like this, please. "You don't know shit about war."

Regarding Steve King: apparently he got caught flatfooted by having a real opponent this time. He hadn't run any ads at all this election season. He finally went on the air yesterday ... with a recycled ad from 2014.

"Our country may be slipping away under the Obama administration...."

R283 that’s hysterical!! So happy about that! I’ll hopefully be doing a happy dance at my local congressional (Democratic of course) candidate’s victory party Tuesday night. He’s challenging the Republican incumbent and is leading right now. I did volunteering and will work the polls on Tuesday.

Trump has sought to make Kavanaugh's bitter confirmation process a campaign-trail issue in the run-up to the midterm elections.

"A vicious accuser of Justice Kavanaugh has just admitted that she was lying, her story was totally made up, or FAKE!" Trump wrote on Twitter. "Can you imagine if he didn’t become a Justice of the Supreme Court because of her disgusting False Statements. What about the others? Where are the Dems on this?" the president continued.

Sorry if already posted but Dump said "A Blue Wave will result in a Crime Wave."

Thoughts?

What is there to say r286? He is desperate, he has been throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks.

Thoughts, R286? About that?

Idiot/Boris.

NY Times....

A Nation in Turmoil Prepares to Deliver a Verdict on Trump

R286 Not Boris. Just can't believe he gets away with all the shit that comes out of his lying mouth.

[quote]Republicans are a little nervous about Republican prospects. They've given up on a dozen candidates as lost causes. They are now trying to pour last-minute money into formerly safe seats. They're putting a six-figure last-minute ad buy into Alaska to try to save Don Young's seat there. Dana Rohrabacher in California is in real trouble for the first time in his career. Steve King in Iowa is in serious trouble for the first time in his career. They're trying to block these leaks everywhere and they simply do not have the resources. These are not the actions of a party confident of a "red tsunami." Or wave. Or ripple.

Last night a DJ saved my life....

Last night a DJ saved my life from a broken heart....

[quote]NY Times.... A Nation in Turmoil Prepares to Deliver a Verdict on Trump

And, I hope the message is;

WE'RE PISSED OFF!!!

You are way too kind, R292.

AP:

AP FACT CHECK: Trump spreads distortions on immigration

Another sign that Republicans know they're in serious trouble: they're not running on a platform intended to grow their party or broaden their base. In their closing message, they're focusing exclusively on the rabid base, praying that they can frighten them enough to get just a few more of them to vote. With the other measures in place to block their opponents from voting, they're praying that this will be enough.

The problem with that? It gets harder and harder each election.

[quote]AP FACT CHECK: Trump spreads distortions on immigration

So the new euphemism is "distortions'? Good to know, AP.

Lord, have mercy.... well, not really.... He's throwing anything out

"Trump on Democrats: "You know, they're lousy politicians and they have lousy policy, but they stick together"

"Trump claims Democrats want to give illegal immigrants the right to vote in order to “stay in office forever"

"Trump misleads crowd on Kavanaugh accusers, saying: "About rape, she lied, and we’re supposed to sit back and take it""

"Trump spreads distortions on immigration"

No wonder Sheldon Adelson has been so free with his money in support of Republicans this midterm, donating more than $100 million to various PACs:

Bloomberg reports that his company recorded a $670 million tax windfall from the GOP tax law in just the first quarter of this year.

"The best Congress money can buy."

DAMN! MSNBC ain't playin'. They've been live ALL day!

High turnouts favor Democrats. Republicans should be scared.

I'm just interested in who wins Nevada Assembly District 36.

I hope so, R301.

I can't believe Nancy Pelosi is going on air on all these shows to gloat about winning the House before the results are in. I don't think it will depress Democratic turnout because Dems will walk over glass to vote but it sure will fire up Republicans. Idiotic strategy.

She should be saying merely "Get out and vote!"

[quote]Dana Rohrabacher in California is in real trouble for the first time in his career.

Nate Cohn reports that Rohrabacher is 3 points behind in the current polling being done by NYT/Siena. But it will be a close race and a long-term incumbent like him won't go down easily.

Nate Cohn also reports that NYT/Siena is seeing a lot of blue in the House races it is polling. Lots of Republican incumbents are trailing, or are only narrowly ahead.

[quote]I don't think it will depress Democratic turnout because Dems will walk over glass to vote but it sure will fire up Republicans. Idiotic strategy.

Odd... Where have I heard that before? Oh yes, Donald trump recently said that!

Ya know... here's the thing with you unwashed... Instead of trying to scare the wits out of people because Democrats are taking to the streets to vote, or "willing to walk over glass to vote", shouldn't you be asking yourself "why, is that?" What has Democrats so riled up, (or pissed off), that they are so willing to bloody their feet to make changes?

We’ve been watching the country spiraling in the gutter, r307? What an odd question.

[quote] I can't believe Nancy Pelosi is going on air on all these shows to gloat about winning the House before the results are in. I don't think it will depress Democratic turnout because Dems will walk over glass to vote but it sure will fire up Republicans. Idiotic strategy.

I can't shit on Nancy Pelosi because she didn't say "impeachment is off the table" (she said impeachment depends on what Mueller comes up with), so I'm just going to go with - she's energizing Republicans!

Oooopsy! Wingnut extraordinaire, Dave Brat, who is unexpectedly fighting for his life in his red district in VA admits that the repubs lie all the time! Ha!

Nancy needs to lay low until Tuesday night. I don’t want her as Speaker. The Democrats need new leadership.

I have donated to Dems over the years but never Republicans. Last week I began to get fundraising emails from Lara trump for 2020. Then the trump organization, then newt Gingrich. This morning Melania trump and of course the office of trump. Reminding me to vote!

I don't know how they got my email. I donate to candidates, not the DNC. I haven't unsubscribed because I wanted to see what they are sending.

Hahahahaha. I get 3 to 4 emails a day. I think I smell a wisp of fear.

Oh, R312, I've been getting emails from Trump, Lara, and Eric all year—and I, too, have never donated to Republicans. I marked them as spam but then they started popping up again.

Nancy Pelosi is an old, befulddled idiot so why should anybody be surprised she's saying stupid shit like the Dems are going to win the House before election day has even dawned?

Nancy Pelosi was the most effective speaker in modern history r314.

"was" being the operative word there.

She's an old lady now and you can even tell in interviews that she looks like she might be suffering from dementia.

Too bad, but we need young blood to lead the Democratic party now.

Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker of the House for the next two years. She got the Dems through the last two years. She's not stepping away now.

Nancy may not get the votes to be Speaker.

Let's count our chickens right now and speculate on who will be elected speaker in place of Nancy P. I'll start: it will be Ammar Campa-Najjar!

R315, House Speaker Tip O’Neill was well liked and worked across the isle to get things done. He was quite successful, too.

Boston had an elevated train line that was originally erected to run in front of the brand new Catholic Cathedral. They used to have to pause Mass every time a trollycar went by, which was frequently for 100 years. That El is long replaced now, with a new underground line.

But Tip’s biggest win was the Big Dig. It was tunneling a highway under the city to replace the existing elevated highway. The elevated highway was always bumper-to bumper. It was a scar that ran across the city, separating neighborhoods, and retarding downtown development. In doing so, they also upgraded all the telecommunications and other utilities to support downtown 21st Financial Industry growth. In addition, the new, huge Ted Williams tunnel under the river from the South End/South Boston to Logan airport is great and takes the heat off the other two, Depression Era, overloaded tunnels that were accessible only after fighting traffic to get through downtown, then drive through, either of those two.

Tip also worked with Reagan to broker the last major payroll tax changes, that increased the earnings subject to SS and payroll taxes, to eliminate funding problems for the upcoming decades.

He also gave us blessing to a Sen. Orrin Hatch & Ted Kennedy program, the “Job training partnership act”, that gave priority in hiring to certain groups. I qualified as an “impoverished youth”. My employer got tax breaks for hiring me.

I think Tip got Federal funds to help construct Boston’s newer water treatment facility. It releases it’s treated liquid waste 10-miles out into The ocean. The solids are used for landfill or fertilizer. Previously, a heavy rain meant sewage would backup into people’s basements.

Tip was quite good for his home state, and country.

Tip had a not-completely-insane Republican Party to work with.

OT but please, Coachella Valley queens, vote Raul Ruiz for 36th Congressional District: Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, Indian Wells, Indio. Internal polls show Y&R, B&B candidate, Republican Kimberlein Brown making gains. Don’t send “Sheila Carter”, a rabid Trump supporter, to DC.

Sorry for the interruption.

I'm worried the repubs will drop some fake bombshell tomorrow or Monday to get a last minute repub surge on Tuesday. Hopefully not though

They really can't be this dumb....

Philip Rucker Verified account @PhilipRucker

Trump Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue said at a rally today that DeSantis's race against Gillum, who is black, is "so cotton-pickin' important to the state of Florida."

Of course they can, R324.

[quote]I can't shit on Nancy Pelosi because she didn't say "impeachment is off the table" (she said impeachment depends on what Mueller comes up with), so I'm just going to go with - she's energizing Republicans!

How many Rethugs watch Joy Reid on msnbc to be energized?

Chris Matthews @r320

[quote]How many Rethugs watch Joy Reid on msnbc to be energized?

I chuckled at this at first but then I paused and thought about it. Ya know... this is what Republicans do! At the bare minimum what the Republican strategists do. I'm always amazed that they know every single word that is uttered on "The View", "Bill Maher", etc. I believe they watch "Rachel Maddow" but can never catch her on anything.

The Republicans spend all of their time doing and watching what the "other side" is doing. So much effort goes into this is the reason why they can't govern. They're too busy trying to malign "the other side".

you don't have to watchJoy Reid. Some lowly Republican intern is tasked with keeping track of all Pelosi's public appearances and statements. I know this because I was once a lowly intern for the DNC and in an election year or leading up to one we kept track of the opposition's appearances.

[quote]How many Rethugs watch Joy Reid on msnbc to be energized?

I was being mocking the other poster. Of course, I don't believe that Pelosi theoretizing about a Democratic house will make Repubs run to the voting booths. That Regan quote Pelosi read on air was very effective, though. If anything, her appearance today may energize Democrats.

[quote]Some lowly Republican intern is tasked with keeping track of all Pelosi's public appearances and statements.

Pelosi didn't "gloat" about a Democratic House. That's just R304 being... whatever.

I was mocking the other poster. ^^^

I have some trepidation about Pelosi. I think if I were advising her, I'd tell her to stay off the air until Wednesday. Period. No matter what she says, she is going to be accused of saying something she never said. They are lying and twisting stuff for weeks now. Can you believe they are running ads that they will protect people with pre existing conditions? After attempting to repeal the ACA 77 times? Because of the Pre-existing conditions issue?

I live in IA-1 congressional district now, right across the river from Prairie Du Chien Wi and boy are there some BS ads being run by the R's for WI. Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir saying they are fighting to protect coverage for pre-existing conditions. Walker is hammering Evers, the Democratic candidate for Wi governor, over his support for giving in state tuition to DACA kids and illegals drivers licenses. Unfortunately since the commercial has started Evers lead has shrunk considerably.

Actually, R333, I'm not seeing that Evers' lead has shrunk. The most recent poll on this has Walker and Evers tied but that's Marquette, whose last poll had Walker up by four, so that would indicate movement in Evers' direction. The other polls are all showing Evers up by a modest amount, unless you're seeing data that RCP isn't showing.

people, , for any liberal voter in your life who you think might be stupid, make sure he/she/they know that you cannot vote by texting. Remember in 2016 when some Russian bots sent out those memes on twitter and facebook? Who knows how many idiots fell for that.

I can see Nancy retiring at the end of this 2years. By that time there will be excitement over the Dem Presidential candidate and all of those salivating progressives will be masturbating over replacing her .

This should hurt somebody's feelings;

Counties Trump visits in midterms blitz don't reflect the nation as a whole--The president has mostly traveled to counties that are whiter, less educated and have lower incomes than the rest of the U.S., according to data

Georgia is fascinating. So much promise.

What's going on in Wisconsin? I know voters LOVE incumbents but does anyone really see a scenario where BOTH Tammy Baldwin and Scott Walker win on Tuesday? They literally couldn't be further apart on the political spectrum. Baldwin is pretty far left and Walker is pretty far right.

The governor's race is extremely close but Walker, at the moment, is a slight underdog, so it's a bit more likely that Baldwin and Evers both win.

Right, R340. Baldwin is on track to win by double digits and I know the polls are very tight between Walker and Evers but who are those 10% of voters who will vote for both? As I said before they couldn't possibly be more different on policy.

Polling in Wisconsin was just garbage last cycle, even from the Wisconsin gold standard pollster Marquette. Hillary had a comfortable lead the entire time and polling also showed that Russ Feingold was almost a sure thing to beat Johnson (though that narrowed quite a bit at the tail end). It looks like the Governor's race is trending the same away - away from Evers though it's too close to call. Probably a slight Evers advantage given the environment but it's stark how they're using the same strategy as they did against Feingold too - pouring millions of dollars of Koch dark money to sink Evers at the last minute.

Oh, got it. There's a little of that in Texas, too, with at least a few voters voting for Beto for Senate and Abbott for governor. Damned if I know what motivates people like that. I agree with you that it doesn't make much sense.

R342, where are you seeing polling results trending away from Evers? RCP isn't showing that, other than Marquette, but Marquette has been consistently favorable for Walker, so showing a tie right now is actually a move in Evers' direction.

The RCP polls that showed Evers up 8, 5 and 2 are more than a month old. I wouldn't put much stock in them at this point.

Look at the polls from 2016 WI Senate race. Russ Feingold led in EVERY SINGLE POLL except one and he lost by more than 3 points. The modeling was clearly off or there was a surge of conservative voters at the last minute that polls didn't detect.

R345, the Emerson poll that has Evers +5 was done 10/29 to 10/31.

Yup, we know, R346. The "likely voter" model in 2016 was off in a few crucial states. Wisconsin was one of those states. The "likely voter" model in the off-cycle election has tended to underestimate Democratic turnout. Here's hoping that continues to be the case, particularly in states like Wisconsin, as I would love to see that asshole go down.

It's gonna be interesting to look at the county by county breakdown of who the Walker-Baldwin split voters will be. I can't imagine there will be many but I hope Evers pulls it out.

R346, the Russian hackers are smart enough to know to not just change the presidential vote numbers. They changed the down ballot numbers to in big races. It would have looked too suspicious if a ton of people voted for Trump and a bunch of Democrats on the rest of the ticket.

People need to remember, the votes were hacked. The story is slowly coming out but we won't be told until after Trump and everyone involved are gone. The powers that be are unwilling to throw the country into the even bigger roiling chaos that would ensue if we were informed that Trump's election was 100% illegitimate. We have no political mechanism to deal with that in this country. We'll know 20 or more years from now when shit gets declassified or uncovered or leaked.

You sound kind of loony R350.

Russia wasn't the only foreign country meddling in the election. Israel intelligence agencies were also creating pro Trump propaganda, fake social media pages and colluding with Trump advisors during the 2016 election to get Trump into office. Netanyahu/Israel were pissed at Obama and Sec of State Hillary for the Iran deal and pissed at Kerry's pressure to let off settlement building, and couldn't afford another Democratic term of Hillary Clinton.

I wonder why American media hasn't talked about the Israeli intelligence agencies role in 2016's election.

R351, have you been following it or did you just shrug your shoulders at all the weird results? The polls were only wrong in the states that Trump won by almost exactly 1%. The numbers all suddenly flipped right after the 50% threshold was reached. The official reports went from eight states having their voter rolls hacked to, I believe, 38 states. That was quietly reported about eight months after the election and quickly swept away. We are already seeing votes being flipped this time around.

You can think I'm crazy if you want but there are patterns and facts that only make sense if the votes were hacked. I believe the truth will be told some day but it's going to be a while. We'll also see what the Mueller report has to say about the extent of Russian involvement and how far it actually went.

GO to California Action for Voting Resources and our endorsements.

Please VOTE Democratic Party Down Ballot, both candidates and Public Policy.

This election is so important!

BLUE WAVE!

Click the picture link to go to r/CaliforniaAction

r348 Wisconsin may have had as many as 90,000 votes not counted in Milwaukee black districts, since that is the difference in turnout between 2012 and 2016 - many of those might have been voter ID problems, as well as voting machine problems. That's probably why polling was off - and why both Russ Feingold and Hillary Clinton lost in that state.

I hope the Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida after the hurricane last year have registered to vote and plan on doing so in favor of the Democrats...I'll be annoyed if they end up being just another false hope given to us by the media.

Bump

[quote]Some lowly Republican intern is tasked with keeping track of all Pelosi's public appearances and statements.

Pity the poor Democratic interns who have to listen to Limbaugh and Hannity day after day.

Everyone VOTE for the DEMOCRATIC Party.

We have to stop trump and these republicans. Even if you have been a lifelong registered republican, your party is now full of fucking Nazis and they are implementing Fascist Policies. You have to vote DEMOCRATIC down ballot. We have to stop them.

ALL AMERICAN HANDS ON DECK!

VOTE DEMOCRATIC!

r353 - there was an article after the election by a mathematician. He said that from the numbers it was impossible for Trump to win from a mathematical standpoint. That statistically it was impossible given the votes coming in and the counts, coupled with the countless polling data that had Clinton winning from a lot to a landslide. The article was not politically motivated at all, the author was just looking at the raw data and sheer numbers. I think that was right around the whole push by the Trump administration to ignore science altogether. The problem is, Trump wins, and the people in power ignore the data. People can call it sour grapes for losing but the data does not lie.

The final ABC/WaPo poll has the Dems at +8 on the generic ballot.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but please VOTE!

The final? NBC/Wall Street Journal generic poll has the Democrats at +7

But they also have Orange Fuck at 46% approval and 52% disapproval.

Not sure I believe that after the past week Dump Truck is at 46%?

Also a personal pet peeve, can David Gura of MSNBC stop saying "Democrat" party and pronounce it correctly as "Democratic" party?

Somebody might get the idea that he's biased or something.

The thing that worries me, and something both Harry Enten and Nate Silver pointed out on twitter, is that while these generic ballot polls show the Dem holding steady with their lead (of ~7-8 points), it is not in line with the polling of individual congressional districts which show the Dems performing incredibly well even in some traditionally red districts, something that would be indicative of around an ~11-12 point national lead.

One set of data indicates the Dems managing to take control of the House just so, and one by a comfortable margin flipping seats all over the place.

We could see 2/3 dem house if everybody votes.

Nate Silver doesn’t know shit.

r366 couldn't pass an entry level statistics class.

R364, how would that disparity be worrisome to Democrats? It would seem to mean that when offered a generic choice between R and D, voters choose D by 7-8%, but when things get down to brass tacks and they're offered two actual named candidates, they go for the D by an even wider margin. Doesn't that bode well for the Democrats?

[quote]The thing that worries me, and something both Harry Enten and Nate Silver pointed out on twitter, is that while these generic ballot polls show the Dem holding steady with their lead (of ~7-8 points), it is not in line with the polling of individual congressional districts which show the Dems performing incredibly well even in some traditionally red districts, something that would be indicative of around an ~11-12 point national lead.

The skew might be because the generic ballot probably includes some votes from those deep, deep red districts that would never flip.

I said this over in the Mueller thread, but I'll repeat it.

My husband, who blogs about elections for DailyKos, has told me there's going to be two outcomes here. Either it's going to be what we think--Dems take the House and a few governorships while the Senate stays the same--or there is a mass of people that no one has accounted for and it's going to be a blowout like 2017 was.

Well if you chose to put more stock into the polls of congressional districts r368 that is certainly a valid interpretation. It is just a bit upsetting because the data does not agree with each other, it'd be nice if these final generic ballot polls showed a 9-10 point lead.

Brian Kemp, who has been desperately trying to cheat in the Georgia election, is trying a new tactic.

[quote]Two days before the midterm elections, Brian Kemp's office says that it has opened an investigation into the Georgia Democratic Party for possible cyber crimes. The office will not specify any of the alleged cyber crimes the party may have carried out.

He is so damn scared that Georgians might elect Stacey Abrams, as he should be.

How many fucking "illegals" are in Wisconsin? Why is it even an issue. It's like Gay marriage. How the fuck would that affect you?

I'm in GA and the ads here are disgusting. And completely dishonest.

[quote]I'm in GA and the ads here are disgusting. And completely dishonest.

I live in a district in NYC where there is no chance of a Democrat losing (the only candidate on the ballot other than our incumbent Congresswoman is a Green candidate). The utter lack of campaign ads is refreshing.

The Georgia governor election has been particularly gross r373, Kemp is a disgusting human being without any morals. I really hope all his flagrant abuses of power just encourage more people to vote against him.

Do we have a choice of alcohol for Tuesday night? I feel like I'm going to need it.

This was bound to be an ugly race. Georgia, Florida, Texas Wisconsin and Missouri are the top most corrupt , the meanest and most difficult operations each in their own way, to crack open. You can bet they already are setting up to contest the outcome if the Republicans lose. That's why it is so important to get out the vote. That slogan, "When we all vote, we win." is true. There are many more of us than there are of the die hard Republican slime and we need to show up. We controlled the House and the Senate in 2010. And we gave it away.

Gerrymandering, voter suppression and institutional fraud will get worse if we don't fight this right here, right now.

Obama is going to Indiana to campaign for a Democrat who usually votes with the Republicans. Why? Because we have to try to get a Majority in the Senate.

If we don't send a clear signal to the Trump Party with this election r378, then we really are lost. We have forever decided we are a-ok with how low Trump has dragged us.

Democrats say the key to stopping Trump’s conservative agenda is to vote Democratic in the midterm elections. But Democrats admit they have no plans to impeach Trump. With the Senate certain to remain in Republican hands, there isn’t much Democrats could do if they wanted. So what exactly is the point of voting Democratic? --Ted Rall

That's...incredibly stupid r381. Unless we can remove Trump from office completely, there is no point in having checks on his power!

Not to mention that with the Democrats in control of the House, Trump won't be able to pass legislation that will continue to hurt the American people. Keeping the House red means continuing damage to the health care system, not to mention the loss of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

That's just bizarre.

Not to mention that turning the House blue will STOP all those pointless and hyper partisan investigations into Hillary and other Democrats that the Republican House leadership have been running for years.

That alone makes it worth turning the House blue.

Not to mention STARTING investigations into the Trump administration that should have been taking place from the very beginning.

Like Trump's tax returns r385, a democratic house can immediately demand them. That's the difference between having zero power in the federal government versus controlling something.

Miss Lindzey is so energized on her love for Kavanaugh campaign tour. But her weary staff having to lug around that fainting couch through 11 states appearances in just the last 5 days alone, must be quite exhausting.

Gillum is up by 2 points in Florida. That's not nearly enough, but I'll take it. We need that final puysh to be awesome. We need to crawl over broken glass if we have to to drag voters to the polls. No excuses. Vote. Florida has been a Republican stronghold of corruption and fraud for years. .. At least 18 years.... if we can save Bill Nelson, and get Gillum elected Governor we will defeat Trump and Rick Scott TWICE. Please Florida!!!! Please vote.

Damn! Norman Lear who is 96 years old, is being interviewed by Joy Reid on MSNBC. He is mentally sharp, articulate and out there campaigning for Gillum in Florida.

When they were wrapping the interview he said, "Hey, let's have lunch!" So cute.

Miss Maxine is on now and she is one smart lady. She is talking about what she would do on the Financial Services committee and as she ran through her list, she mentioned money laundering and looking at the banks like, oh, maybe Deuschte Bank, and then it all makes sense. No wonder that Trump is going after her on the campaign trail this past week. Of course she has been openly going after hi for the past year, but Maxine was real calm today, and she was talking about bizness. She was talking about Congress. I was impressed.

Why can't Trump lose his fucking voice!!! Why is it Obama lost his voice campaigning in GA Friday, and shitface Trump is screaming and shouting so much I want to smack hi in the face.

Kemp in GA. investigating the claims of hacking by Dems of voter registration rolls. This is real bullshit with no evidence so he is casting doubt on results and setting up a scenario to contest it if he loses.

R381, I'm sorry to see Ted Rall (whose work over the years as a cartoonist has been great) so missing the point of the "resistance." Sure, if repugs hold the Senate, they can continue to pack the courts with a simple majority, and approve cabinet officers by the same.

But all legislation requires a majority of the House, and most still requires, on top of a House majority, 60 votes in the Senate to move forward (even loathsome McConnell hasn't scrapped the filibuster rule completely).

So yeah, I hope the Senate flips but flipping the House, in itself, is a HUGE fucking deal.

[quote]But all legislation requires a majority of the House, and most still requires, on top of a House majority, 60 votes in the Senate to move forward (even loathsome McConnell hasn't scrapped the filibuster rule completely).

Also, spending bills must originate in the House as well, so no more tax cuts.

My best friend from high school, who used to not vote, and when she started only for third party candidates, is voting D this year.

[quote]This was bound to be an ugly race. Georgia, Florida, Texas Wisconsin and Missouri are the top most corrupt ,

And, this always makes me wonder; What is it about public service, (besides the work hours), that make people want to nearly kill themselves to get these elected offices? I mean... Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, and many others are already RICH beyond belief! They can't do anything else?

Here's a cotton pickin' link in case one hasn't been posted.

Agriculture Sec. Sonny Perdue: Florida governor's race 'so cotton-pickin' important'

People are addicted to power r392. Being in a position of power and influence, just being relevant.

You could go be rich and relax on a beach, but certainly personalities are not happy with that.

[quote] Trump is screaming and shouting so much

I have to give it to him though, (and probably only one of the few nice things that I can say about him), he has A LOT of energy for a 72 or 73 year old. This "mess and chaos" certainly energizes him.

[quote]Agriculture Sec. Sonny Perdue: Florida governor's race 'so cotton-pickin' important'

They really can't help themselves, can they?

[quote]I have to give it to him though, (and probably only one of the few nice things that I can say about him), he has A LOT of energy for a 72 or 73 year old.

Because he's smart enough not to waste that energy on unnecessarily walking from point A to point B.

Unfortunately, that LOT of energy is negative energy.

r365, that is a magic number as then the Democrats in the House could start EJECTING Republican members who are indicted.

Investigate, indict, eject under a super-majority.

NYC Gays, how are we voting on the ballot measures? I'm in favor of the Matching Funds one, but I don't know about the other two.

As one of the comments on YouTube noted, this will either be incredibly funny or extremely sad on Wednesday morning.

Maxine Waters will speak to issues most other Democratic candidates side-step.

Democrats should be pounding the Republicans on their leader's gross deference to Putin, financial improprieties inclusive of alleged money laundering, not releasing tax returns, obstruction of justice, etc. House and Senate Republicans have accomplished a tax cut benefitting the most wealthy, and confirmed an abundance of far-right judges. McConnell and company should have been made a big issue.

Lindsey Graham is out there attacking Senate Democratic colleagues in a viscious way. Who is giving Graham some grief except for a few delivering humor on DL? The media is too busy fingering themselves thinking and talking about Graham.

CNN....

Stacey Abrams: Kemp investigation is desperate

[quote]Democrats should be pounding the Republicans on their leader's gross deference to Putin, financial improprieties inclusive of alleged money laundering, not releasing tax returns, obstruction of justice, etc.

That was -practically item by item- Hillary’s campaign strategy and look where it got her. Democrats can’t run just on Trump bashing, justifiable as it may be. They better have an action platform - healthcare, social equity, preservation of social programs, etc. Stop relying purely on simplistic opponent attacks. Everyone knows what Trump is capable and incapable of and what he’s done and not done. Yes, remind the public of it but have a progress plan as well.

From the trenches in Warren county, ohio. Should be called Warren CUNTY. the weeping Boner's old stronghold.

Rethugs there are terrified. I was out canvassing this past week in that God forsaken shithole of arrogance and entitlement and had the door slammed in my face twice and was screamed at by some old white man who claimed to be an independent but said he'd never vote for a democrat.

I calmly said, "so you're just ashamed to call yourself a republican " then I laughed because it was funny. I thought he was going to have a seizure screaming at me.

They are scared out of their narrow minds. It is funny.

I told them at the office I am not going back there to help. Those slammed door and screamers were supposed to be democrats, FFS. Someone either got an incorrect list or these people voted for Clinton and had their party affiliation switched.

That happens in Ohio. If you are a registered democrat but vote rethug in a primary (as many of my friends did in 2016), your party affiliation gets switched.

So thugs are frightened and lashing out. I hope the feel it's hopeless and stay home.

[quote]Democrats can’t run just on Trump bashing, justifiable as it may be.

They aren't. The number one topic they're running on is health care.

Exactly r408. Dems have been trying to run on healthcare and helping the middle class rather than giving tax cuts for the rich, they have been widely as avoiding making it all about bashing Trump.

Even as Trump ramps up his rhetoric, they have been avoiding taking the bait.

Any Oregonians in the house receive a robocall from Obama for Kate Brown? I find it troubling that a democratic governor needs robocalls this close to election day (even though we have vote by mail). I've seen many articles quoting democrats saying they can't vote for Kate for (insert bullsh*t reason here - mainly because she didn't float down on a magic carpet within two days of becoming governor and grant their every wish) so are voting for Knute (repub). It's very shades of Hillary in 16. I'm worried we might flip to a republican governor.

Exactly r410 and r411. That’s what Democratic candidates ARE and SHOULD BE doing! Not what r406 suggests.

So now MSNBC is reporting that things aren’t looking good for Gillum. All the early voting and new registrations are up for whites, waaaay down for blacks and Hispanics. Gillum ain’t expected to win.

Trump’s approval rating is 47% per MSNBC

Dems have closed the early vote gap significantly in Florida, especially compared to prior elections.

I just gave $500 to Gillum thanks to R414.

[quote]The thing that worries me, and something both Harry Enten and Nate Silver pointed out on twitter, is that while these generic ballot polls show the Dem holding steady with their lead (of ~7-8 points), it is not in line with the polling of individual congressional districts which show the Dems performing incredibly well even in some traditionally red districts, something that would be indicative of around an ~11-12 point national lead.

What Nate Silver also pointed out today is that even though the final National polls this weekend show the generic ballot lead for the Democrats down to 7 points, that may be more than enough to win the House.

As Silver points out, conventional wisdom was that Democrats needed a big lead on the generic ballot in order to overcome gerrymandering, but other factors in the Democrats' favor mean that the Dems don't necessarily need as large of a generic ballot lead as usual in the 2018 Midterms.

By voter registration Dems are down by 0.6% in the early vote in Florida, that compares to 4% at this point in 2014. In that election Rick Scott won by 1 point. That speaks optimistically to Gillum's chances of pulling out a win.

Also MSNBC doesn't run polls, I assume they are talking about the NBC/Wall St Journal poll, that had Trump at 46%. The ABC/WaPo poll had him at 40% Those were the two big polls that came out today.

Anyway, I'm not surprised you were the poster from earlier that said "Nate Silver doesn't know shit"

Nate Silver:

[quote]People have been using a 7-point popular vote win as a benchmark for D majority, but that's *probably* out of date, and a little too high. Doesn't account for PA redistricting, GOP retirements, Democratic $$, and other ground-level factors that have helped Democrats.

poll troll, we love you.

However for the midterms we're ALL size queens - the bigger, the better. We want a 15% popular vote margin just because.

Could you imagine if the Poll Troll were actually...?

[quote]Democrats say the key to stopping Trump’s conservative agenda is to vote Democratic in the midterm elections. But Democrats admit they have no plans to impeach Trump. With the Senate certain to remain in Republican hands, there isn’t much Democrats could do if they wanted. So what exactly is the point of voting Democratic? --Ted Rall

Actually, Pelosi said just yesterday that impeachment depends on what Mueller brings to the table.

[quote]That's...incredibly stupid [R381]. Unless we can remove Trump from office completely, there is no point in having checks on his power!

If you think that Democrats should run on impeachment to get Democrats to vote on Tues you are... well, incredibly naive. Or maybe you want Repubs to get energized...

Jon Ralson, the guru of Nevada politics is officially predicting that Rosen will beat Heller for the Senate. He knows Nevada well, let's hope he is right.

[quote]Democrats should be pounding the Republicans on their leader's gross deference to Putin, financial improprieties inclusive of alleged money laundering, not releasing tax returns, obstruction of justice, etc.

[quote]That was -practically item by item- Hillary’s campaign strategy and look where it got her.

Wow, we must have experienced a completely different campaign in 2016. I could have sworn Clinton was "boring" people talking about issues and detailed solutions to the issues. And she was criticized for not attacking trump enough.

Fucking Kemp. He is typical deplorable repub SCUM. I hope that doesn't tip the race his way. If he wins it will no doubt have an asterisk next to it given his behavior.

how the fuck can Trump have 47% approval rating? Isn't that his highest ever? If that's true, then damn most white Americans are pieces of shit

Here’s the state of the FLORIDA vote.

The GOP’s lead is collapsing (down to 0.6) and we have more early voting happening today. PS, we have no idea how these people voted. My gut tells me more Repubs are voting Dem than the other way around. Also, keep in mind, these numbers don’t account for Independent voter totals.

R427 one can only hope

No r424, all of Clinton’s campaign ads were about pointing out (correctly I may add) Trump’s flaws, amorality and incompetence. Don’t you remember the ads with the children? And bringing up Putin (“no puppet, you are the puppet!”), tax returns, and Miss Universe - all mid-debate? It was Mook’s strategy and it backfired by riling up the deplorables.

She detailed her platform at times in town hall type conversations and then would refer people to her website.

But then again, maybe you’re right and we experienced very different sides of her campaign.

Trump's strategy is to save himself by constantly creating new scandals when a truly damaging scandal comes out. He's got 100s of scandals going on both past and present so the news media cannot pin him down to 1 thing. Then you had Hillary who had far fewer scandals which allowed the media to hammer on the same topics over and over again. It was almost like with Trump, where do you begin? He's despicable in all aspects of his life

Trump's approval hasn't changed r436, it's actually been remarkably stable for a couple months now. That poster cited the highest of two polls that came out today about his approval rating, and still lied since the higher one had it at 46, not 47.

This Anthony Salvanto is ruining my high... OOPS! MOOD!

[quote]But then again, maybe you’re right and we experienced very different sides of her campaign.

We totally did. I don't particularly remember the ads that you mention, but I remember ads about health care, gun control and economy.

[quote]It was Mook’s strategy and it backfired by riling up the deplorables.

Deplorables were going to vote for him no matter what. That was nothing to backfire in terms of those ads. There were other issues with the campaign, but that's not the one that cost her the presidency, IMO.

SOULS TO THE POLLS!!!

C'mon Mothers! Turn it out! First Sunday Communion is over and dinner is almost over!

The NYTimes polling of individual congressional districts continues to find the Democrats doing even better than expected. Man I hope they end up being right.

[quote]and I hail from three of the top bellwether districts of the election: NJ07, MI08, WA08. Our first three polls averaged R+1 Our final polls, still not complete in two cases, are averaging D+5

the last few weeks I haven't heard anything about Devin Nunes' race...I assume that means he's solidly in the lead? I was hoping he'd be booted from the House

LET’S NOT FORGET THAT THE REPIGS IN GEORGIA ARE THE REAL CRIMINAL HACKERS

2017: APNewsBreak: Georgia election server wiped after suit filed

I can only find two polls on that race, R436, both of them from a month and a half ago and both of them giving Nunes a solid lead (+8 and +14).

I’m guessig Kemp’s panic is a result of internal polling.

How can that state get away with so much illegal activity by the election officials? It’s like a third world country down there.

Send in the troops.

They can announce the sham investigation but then say “we can’t comment”. WTF. You just commented.

I hate to link to The Hill, but...

[quote]Early voter turnout in this year’s midterm election in Texas has reportedly surpassed the total voter turnout in the state’s 2014 midterm election.

How the fuck can the candidate for governor use his current office as Secretary of State to open an investigation into his gubernatorial opponent the weekend before the election?????? It is a conflict of interest, it is an abuse of power, and it stinks!!

Rethuglicans need to cheat. lie, and steal in order to win. They sure as hell can't do it without corruption.

Joseph Kapsch Verified account @JosephKapsch

Oh how I pray that @MarshaBlackburn loses her seat on Tuesday so we can coin the outcome: "The Swift Effect" lol -- LOVE THIS post from @taylorswift13

Remember

[quote]Could you imagine if the Poll Troll were actually...?

I think I'm better looking than Steve Kornacki, R421.

Even if I do say so myself. ; )

Republican Gov. Scott Walker has taken the unusual step of activating the Wisconsin National Guard troops on Election Day. Walker issued an executive order Friday authorizing troops to “provide essential services to the Wisconsin Elections Commission.” The order doesn’t offer any further details on the troops’ mission.

[quote]Jon Ralson, the guru of Nevada politics is officially predicting that Rosen will beat Heller for the Senate. He knows Nevada well, let's hope he is right.

Yes, that's good news for the Democrats in Nevada.

It's a turnaround from a couple of weeks ago when Jon Ralston was not so confident of Rosen beating Heller.

If you read his detailed prediction, he's not saying it's *certain* that Rosen will beat Heller, but he's saying he thinks she will, which is still a big improvement from where things stood for her a couple weeks ago. Ralston predicts a 2-point win for Rosen.

Taylor Swift deserves mad props for coming out and supporting the underdog when she could lose republican fans and money because of it.

She took a huge risk. Huge. And it makes her more interesting to me. She did it from Tennessee. Which is all the more brave. Go Tay!

Oh beloved Poll Troll! Never fear, even if you looked like Danny DeVito, we'd all still fight over who sucks you off first!

Ah Poll Troll, I'm glad your handsome self is here. I asked this a while back and one person answered with some useful info but said you'd be the chap to ask. My question, as a non-American with fingers and all else crossed for you guys, is when is it likely to become apparent if there is a blue wave forming? I realise it's a big country and there's a lot of diverse factors but are there any early results or signs that can make everyone breathe a little easier and be more and more hopeful? TIA.

I'm not going to have to like Taylor Swift's music now, am I? I'm willing to start liking her.

Would you look at that! I went to ignore r414, and what do you know? R415 disappeared as well!

Beware of the trolls. And don't feed them.

I get upset when the media starts reporting on some of these bullshit polls talking about Trump's popularity being in the high 40's. IMO in the real world it's bullshit. I wonder if they show races tightening and Trump ascending to prepare us for the vote fraud that will give the Republicans another fake "win."

The Media is not our friend. They hype races, they hype Trump, running his speeches and clips constantly and then in many cases "criticizing" him. I'm also seeing way too much of the"balanced" false equivalencies.

From Day One we should have been treating him as illegitimate. The Media ought to stop treating the Republicans as if they have a legitimate place in our two party system. Their base has shrunk and they are not that party anymore. They are an extremist cult that does not represent anything resembling the traditional two party system.

We really need to take the Media to task for, in so many ways, enabling Trump and the extremists even as the appear to oppose him. I'm not saying they engage in fake news. I'm talking about all our traditional mainstream media outlets and the way they approach the current political crisis. This is not normal. This is not business as usual and they need to stop reporting it as if it is.

I like Taylor so I am biased, not sure why but I always buy her new music and usually enjoy it. Not a super fan but I have watched her come into her own in the last few years. Don’t follow the media reports about her. They never line up with what she’s really about or what she’s doing.

That being said, my respect for her has reached a new high as she stood in the middle of a red state and told her republican fans to vote for the better candidate, even though he was behind in the polls. It’s very risky and could have tanked her career (see Dixie Chicks)

But she did it anyway and that is as bad-ass as you can get in the rock and roll/pop world. She deserves respect. Send her a message on social media. She actually reads her messages.

Long live democracy!

The entire administration, the cabinet, from Ben ‘Sleepy’ Carson to Ditsy Devos, from Sarah “Gaslight” Sanders to Kelleyanne Conartist: they are all illegitimate.

[quote]when is it likely to become apparent if there is a blue wave forming? I realise it's a big country and there's a lot of diverse factors but are there any early results or signs that can make everyone breathe a little easier and be more and more hopeful? TIA.

Yes, there are a number of lists of races which the forecasters are putting together for Tuesday which allow people to follow along on Election Night to see if certain key districts are flipping to the Democrats are not.

Many of these lists contain what are known as "Tipping Point" races. These alert forecasters and networks to key races which show that winning these districts usually means the party will win control.

I will try to post a few here shortly.

No link r415?

The trolls are getting desperate and I LOVE IT!

See Kemp in GA.

Their desperation is now off the charts.

Trump's approval rating might be 47% in a particular state. I saw that on maybe CNN. They were talking about Senate races in four Red states that Trump won decisively in 2016. THey showed how he is only above 50% in one state, and in the high 40's in the other three two states had him at 47% one at 49%. So that should clear up the bullshit about "Trump is at 47%." He isn't.

As a bit of light relief from all the anxiety, this Jacob Wohl based tweet thread is another entry in his twitter hall of shame.

R450, here's an example of the sort of forecasting list that is being put together for Tuesday night.

If you follow a list like this, it will show that if the Democrats win these districts, they will probably win the House:

Full House districts list at 538 site here:

Knowing that Dana Rohrbacher is going to lose takes the sting out of Nunes being reelected comfortably and currently-indicted Duncan Hunter probably squeaking by.

As you can see in the screen chart at R460, the race in MAINE-2 has been identified at the "tipping-point district".

If Democratic challenger Jared Golden is able to beat incumbent GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, it probably means the Democrats will win a majority in the House.

[quote]Oh how I pray that @MarshaBlackburn loses her seat on Tuesday so we can coin the outcome: "The Swift Effect" lol -- LOVE THIS post from @taylorswift13

come Wednesday morning that harridan is gonna be Swift Booted

If Dan McCready defeats the odious Mark Harris (the one who said that Middle East peace will only come when Jews convert to Christianity), it will be the first time a Democrat has held that seat since the 50s.

[quote]Knowing that Dana Rohrbacher is going to lose takes the sting out of Nunes being reelected

Oh, no, no, no... Devin needs to be right there in the chamber as he and his schemes all fall apart.

It's too soon to write off Dana Rohrabacher -- it's a very close race.

Great and thanks Poll Troll. And would I be right in thinking that because it's in Maine, a result there is likely to be known early'ish on Tuesday night?

I wish I had 5 million dollars to send to McCready. We don’t need anymore nutjobs in congress.

Author Stephen King tells Iowans to vote out Steve King: ‘I’m tired of being confused with this racist dumbbell’

R462, Dana Rohrabacher is trailing by 2-3 points in the most recent poll, by NYT/Siena.

538 gives Rouda a 58% chance of winning, but it's still listed as a TOSS UP because it's close.

UGH! Hugh Hewitt is on Sharpton's show now... wait a minute, isn't he supposed to be in the morning?

Anyway, Hewitt is saying the blue wave is not even a sprinkle and that McConnell has saved the Senate...

I wish Hugh Hewitt would stop slumming on other shows since his own completely forgettable show got cancelled.

R468, yes, Maine closes at 8 PM.

But because the Maine-2 race is expected to be close, with Democrat Jared Golden only projected to win by about 2 points, it could take a while to call the race.

Right now Maine-2 is "Lean Dem", with a 62% chance of a win for Golden.

Btw, I think Maine has Ranked-Choice Voting, so it will be interesting to see how that affects the outcome.

FFS! Polls open in 36 hours and the nyt "live polls" of GA CD06 shows 9%. "Undecided" This is the Ossoff special election from 2017, the most expensive race in history and one that got 24/7 attention from national media. Handel (the one who destroyed the pink ribbon breast cancer walk) won barely but now trails the dem challenger.

How the fuck can you live in this district and be undecided at this point? who are these idiots?

I can't read these charts with any kind of understanding. Will someone please help a doddering old fart understand what it means. I was looking at 538's chart and Lucy McBath running against the horrificly disgusting Karen Handel in Georgias 6th, at #240, and I want to know if it means Handel is going to be defeated. She is so completely in your face with her anti Gay views I want to slap her!

So like, where is David Hogg and his movement???

r475, evey presidential poll has a number of "Undecideds" in it. Imagine, people who are undecided about TRUMP!?!

WHO THE FUCK ARE THEY???

2018 PT, what about the Oklahoma Hovernor's race? It was mentioned on This Week.

Lucy needs help. Tweeted 4 hours ago;

Lucy McBath Verified account @LucyWins2018

US House candidate, GA-6

🚨BREAKING🚨

Our race is officially a toss-up!

Momentum is undoubtedly on our side - but we need your help to capitalize. Will you chip in $5, $15 or more so we can get over the finish line?

They've been out trying to register young people and encourage them to vote r477?

What have you been doing?

Hogg and the Parkland kids were here in GA last week I think. Maybe two weeks ago. I hope right now they're organizing and GOTMFV in Florida. The polls say that the younger voters support all kinds of good solid Democratic issues, Healthcare, Environment, Gun Safety, etc. and IF THEY SHOW UP Gillum and Nelson win!!!! But they have to show up. So I'm hoping the Parkland kids are home in Florida helping to make it happen.

DAMN IT, POLL TROLL!!!! Did you take a dinner and or bathroon break?????? SHEESH!!! WE NEED ANSWERS!

Just joking! We LOVE ya Poll Troll!

Yes, R483.

I just went to pee and am now back at my screen. :)

R476, Handel is still favored in the Georgia 6th race, but her lead has been narrowing in recent polls:

Times now has her trailing 2 points

I vividly remember CNN's crossfire the night before the 1992 election. John Sununu placidly explained to Michael Kinsley how Bush would win by picking up this state, that state, a little here, a little there, while Kinsley just looked at him incredulously going, "Sure, John! Sure John!" (would that make a good meme?).

I hope these pro-Republican prognosticators who are confidently pooh-poohing the blue wave are proved as right as Sununu was.

Yes, the new NYT/Siena poll has Handel behind by 1.5 points in their adjusted average.

But she leads overall because of prior polls and because the district is about 15 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.

This was Newt Gingrich's district for many years.

If the Democrats are having a really good night, expect GA6 to flip. It just depends on what type of night it is going to be. That this R+15 district isn't considered a safe bet shows how broad the field is.

so sweet to see that bitch go down

[quote]If the Democrats are having a really good night, expect GA6 to flip. It just depends on what type of night it is going to be. That this R+15 district isn't considered a safe bet shows how broad the field is.

Yes.

The forecasters are being cautious about GA-6 because it's been Republican since around 1980.

It was Gingrich's seat for many years, and after the loss by Ossoff last year it makes sense to wait & see on Tuesday night whether the Democrats can actually flip it.

Until then, forecasts have Handel with a small edge.

I’m guessing Ossoff is not running this time around?

I’m almost positive they monkeyed with the results.

[quote] She detailed her platform [bold]at times[/bold] in town hall type conversations and then would refer people to her website.But then again, maybe you’re right and we experienced very different sides of her campaign.

???

R429 ,no, you certainly experienced the same campaign as everyone else. You just didn't care for it because as a human being you lack empathy for others dearest Bernie Troll.

This was odd because around the same time the Russians were targeting other states, a security researcher in Georgia named Logan Lamb discovered a serious security vulnerability in an election server in his state. The vulnerability allowed him to download the state’s entire database of 6.7 million registered voters and would have allowed him or any other intruder to alter versions of the database distributed to counties prior to the election. Lamb also found PDFs with instructions and passwords for election workers to sign in to a central server on Election Day as well as software files for the state’s ExpressPoll pollbooks—the electronic devices used by poll workers to verify voters’ eligibility to vote before allowing them to cast a ballot.

The unpatched and misconfigured server had been vulnerable since 2014 and was managed by the Center for Election Systems, a small training and testing center that until recently occupied a former two-story house on the Kennesaw State University campus. Until last year, the Ccnter was responsible for programming every voting machine across the state, raising concerns that if the Russians or other adversaries had been able to penetrate the center’s servers as Lamb had done, they might have been able to find a way to subvert software distributed by the center to voting machines across the state.

But Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who was the only state election official to refuse security assistance from the Department of Homeland Security prior to the election, has insisted for more than a year that his state’s voting systems were never at risk in the 2016 election, because DHS told him the Russians had not targeted Georgia.

[quote]I’m guessing Ossoff is not running this time around?

Correct.

The new Dem candidate is Lucy McBath.

Nate Silver bringing out his sassy gay side on twitter.

[quote]The one thing I have no patience for is dudes (it's almost *always* dudes) who spend 15 minutes on something you've been studying for 10+ years and act like they've solved Fermat's Last Theorm

Love a good nerd clap back.

Kornacki top, Silver bottom in the battle of the gay stats nerds.

And where does Harry Enten get sandwiched into that configuration, R498?

Kornacki really strikes me as a bossy bottom.

Both Kornacki and Silver are also big sports fans, their personalities do seem very similar in certain ways.

Kornacki is a fucking Repuke, fuck him!

Kornacki didn't come out til age 32, I don't mean to press, I mean admit it to himself and tell his friends/family. The guy definitely has some issues.

why is it that in blue state Massachusetts, repub governor Charlie Baker is so popular? Yes he's a moderate repub who has spoken out against Trump at times but he's still a repub. He stands to be reelected based on polling. He succeeded Deval Patrick of all people.

Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland are all deep blue states with popular Republican governors.

I live in Maryland, it frustrates me we have a Republican governor, but he is considered moderate and people like him and he will easily get re-elected. Our state legislature has a veto-proof Dem majority though, they have kept him in check on certain things. I don't think people realize if we lose that veto-proof majority they might suddenly be realize he is still a Republican.

I’m guessing that Kornaki is hung like a mule. Just a hunch.

He doesn’t strike me as a horn ball. You’d have to do all the work.

[quote]why is it that in blue state Massachusetts, repub governor Charlie Baker is so popular? Yes he's a moderate repub who has spoken out against Trump at times but he's still a repub. He stands to be reelected based on polling. He succeeded Deval Patrick of all people.

It's been common practice in Massachusetts over the past couple decades for the voters there to elect Republican Governors, even though MA voters pick Dems for virtually every other office.

Eg. There are 2 Democratic Senators, Democratic AG, and a Huge Majority Democratic House.

Fun Fact, CNN's Poll guy Harry Enten is the nephew of singer Neil Sedaka.

It is weird for me to consider him part of CNN now r508, he was with Nate Silver for so damn long.

Old women are always out driving in rainy weather.

Chuck Todd & John King are always sounding pro-Republican and frequently try to rationalize Trump. King looked to be blaming Democrats for recent nut-cases acting on political rage. He even showed clips of Maxine and Hillary as if to blame them.

Kornacki may be Republican, but he tries not to be overly obvious about it. He pushed a lot of interest in certain races whereby he had an enthusiastic tone about the GOP candidate.

Andrea Mitchell may not be keen on Trump, but renders suspicion she is Republican. She is married to Alan Greenspan. Not certain where his loyalties hang.

Steve Kornacki is a lot hotter than Nate Silver. I'd be fine letting him be a bossy bottom. It was great to think about him being our poll troll (no offense, real poll troll!) for a few minutes. Don't know why anyone reasonably thinks that either he or Chuck Todd are Republicans; they are both just enthusiastic. I'll be happily watching Steve wave his arms relentlessly Tuesday night.

I like John King on election night. I can follow and understand his map and I like his analysis. Kornacki is too damned animated and his explanations are just... i don't know... I'm not confident with him the way I am with John King. BTW. As much as I think he's hot and I love it when he fries Republicans, Jake Tapper has been getting on my nerves lately.

This reporter in GA with Anderson is pissing me off. She is doing the "both sides" bullshit and then talks about "allegations" the GA database is vulnerable and open to hacking and it has been an ongoing concern, but fails to remind people Kemp has been Secretary of state during that entire period. Also failed to mention he lost in a court battle on voter suppression, even though she talked about "accusations of voter suppression" from Abrams camp.

Granholm just kicked kemp ass and delivered like the experienced lawyer she is....so instead ofAnderson moving on, he calls upon Rick fucking Santorum to comment. I am fucking through with this shit. Going to watch Amazon.

Anderson really doesn’t know anything about politics. He can’t follow up a question with facts.

2018PollTroll and others - during my Sunday read of the various news, opinion, and poll sites it seems the consensus is the Dems should win control with a majority of 225 - just 2 seats beyond what’s needed. Not exactly blue wave material, but a win is a win in my book, so that was comforting. However, they all had a caveat along the lines of “the Repubs could still manage to retain control, but with a much smaller majority”. Obviously, this was less than comforting. Apparently it boils down to 12-14 seats that are too close to call, toss ups. How they go will determine who controls the House — is this right?

Am I wrong to be concerned that this could be our reality Wednesday? Or am I buying into the media’s “this is a real nail biter folks!” narrative?

Also, as the polls tighten more and more, if these voters are “going home” to Repubs, they’re more likely to vote the straight R ticket vs splitting, right? Of course the same is true for voters “coming home” to us, but as we need to flip more Repub voters in some of these tight races, is that a worry? It really is maddening figuring out all these “what if’s”! My hat is off to all these guys who do this for a living!

I remain hopeful we will gain the House; unfortunately from what I’ve read, looks like the Senate is out, with Repubs possibly gaining up to 4 seats there. Ugh.

I will be tuned in Tuesday night with some manhattans on hand to hopefully celebrate, or if worse case scenario, drown my sorrows and curse the voters as well as those who didn’t vote.

PS - count me in the Kornacki can be annoying, but there’s something hot about him camp. I too would peg him as hung. Has no one had him or heard tales?

There is an 85% probability that the Dems take control of the House, with a 15% probability of the Republicans keeping control. The Dems are the heavy favorites but of course 15% is not zero, if you had a 15% chance of winning a million dollars you would still be quite excited for it, it is greater than 1 in 10 odds.

To compare it to 2016, there was a 30% chance that Trump won the presidency, and he did. The odds of the Republicans keeping the House are lower than odds of Trump winning, half as likely in face.

[quote]Also, as the polls tighten more and more

That's your problem right there. The polls aren't tightening.

[quote]To compare it to 2016, there was a 30% chance that Trump won the presidency, and he did. The odds of the Republicans keeping the House are lower than odds of Trump winning, half as likely in face.

The Russians stole the 2016 election. That election stands on its own for obvious reasons.

If Kemp somehow acknowledges a loss in Georgia, expect everything related to the election to be destroyed again. He fears prosecution.

I think he's going to straight-out lie about the vote tally, however. Just declare that he won, providing fabricated vote totals, and then "accidentally" delete all records of votes made. Then it goes to court, and he might still win. The court(s) might say "Well, the secretary of state says that he won, and there's no actual proof to the contrary, so we can't question his numbers. He wins."

The press and the majority will be furious, but Trump will back him and that'll be that. Banana republic quasi-dictatorship.

I have such PTSD from 2016 I don't know what I am going to do Tuesday.

I've voted, all my family has voted, my friends have voted. All straight Democrat.

Thanks for the link to some comforting news, R518.

R519 - not following you - are you saying that what’s being reported about tightening races (obviously not every race) is wrong? More of the “this is a horse race...down to the wire” narrative? To be clear, I don’t think any of these reporters are saying ALL the races are tightening, for that matter neither am I. The “races are tightening” would apply to those already tight, in the toss up category. At least that’s how I took it. 🤷🏼‍♂️

Here's a race that ain't tightening: Nate Silver gives Antonio Sabato, Jr. a less than 1-in-100 chance at winning CA-26.

[quote]are you saying that what’s being reported about tightening races (obviously not every race) is wrong? More of the “this is a horse race...down to the wire” narrative?

Yup. That narrative isn't backed up by the generic polling nor by most of the specific race polling. Things have actually been pretty stable for some time.

True r525. Honestly the race now looks nearly the same as it did two months ago.

That doesn't fit into the media narrative or their need for eyeballs and clicks, so they have to invent a "Kavanaugh Bounce" (largely on the basis of a single poll) and look at each movement of a point or two in either direction as breaking news that warrants breathless coverage.

There is no way that the Repulicants are picking up four Senate seats and getting to 55.

Haha, Nate Silver is actually snarking about the same thing on twitter that we are talking about

[quote]Democrats lead by 8.3 percentage points in our generic ballot average, a dramatic reversal from 10 days ago when they led by 8.2 percentage points.

I liked this response: "My God by Tuesday they could be up 8.32 percentage points!"

Silver is also getting irritated at the national press for their "predictions."

[quote]Writing this headline when Beto still has a 25% chance as winning is just as dumb as acting like he was gonna be the next president when he had a 35% chance of winning 6 weeks ago.

And that subtitle on the Beto story was just dumber than shit:

[quote]"Republicans believe Ted Cruz was beatable - if only his opponent paid attention to them."

How fucking stupid can you be that you're letting Republicans dictate to you a story about their opponent?

Got it R525 and thanks!

I still admit, I’m not going to be completely worry free until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning when the races are called and final. I understand the media always plays things up, and I played right into it - so yeah, shame on me. I don’t think I’m alone after 2016 though, in not being entirely comfortable with polls this time around. I’m sure played a part in me playing right into the “too close to call...Repubs might still hold” narrative.

R528 - I think the last 2 possible Repub pick ups were still “toss ups” in what I read today, more of a “if this, then that” outcome is possible.

You shouldn't be worry free, I'm not worry free r533. I'm going to be stressed about the Dems not flipping the House until it (hopefully) happens. Nothing is a guarantee, these are just probabilities based on the available data.

There really is a lot of uncertainty about what who will turn out on Tuesday, so there's plenty of room for the close races to go either way. And, as Silver calls out repeatedly, he deals with probabilities, not certainties. The Republicans still have a 15% chance to hold the House. That's not zero.

That said, based on the outcomes of the off-cycle elections, what we've seen in the early voting patterns in most of the states, and, yes, the polls, I'm pretty comfortable that Democrats will retake the House. For the Senate, I'd be surprised if either party picked up more than two seats and I think it more likely that only one seat will shift. So I remain cautiously optimistic.

I wish they would just stop interviewing the Chairpersons of each party, Tom Perez and that McDaniel broad who dropped Romney from her name because Trump didn't like Mitt Romney.

You just learn nothing when they speak, neither will ever admit to the potential to lose any races and never see any faults with their candidates, it is all just spin, spin, spin, spin.

One of the primary reasons I think that Republicans will lose the House is that [italic]they[/italic] think they will lose the House. Trump is already claiming that his "primary focus has been on the Senate." They've abandoned several of the close races, stopped funding the candidates, and given them up for loss. And they're throwing in last-minute panic money into races that they didn't think they'd have to handle, like Don Young up in Alaska.

86% chance of Dems winning House in latest 538 forecast:

Lindsey has become a star by taking "kisses for Kavanaugh".

WTF?

FiveThirtyEight gives the Repugs the same chance of retaining the House as they give Bruce Rauner of winning as Illinois governor and there is ZERO chance that Rauner is going to win. Also, the Repug chances of keeping the House have gone down a tiny percentage in the last few days, while the Democrat's chances of taking the Senate have gone up by about the same tiny percentage. There is not tightening or trending toward Repugs. None.

The only way things get fucked is if they cheat and aren't called on it. We know they will cheat. So, how do we call them on it in any way that matters? I mean, is Stacey Abrams supposed to petition her opponent due to discrepancies? What a pile of scum the Repugs are.

The right-wing base LOVED Miss Lindsey's outrage during the Kavanaugh hearing r539.

We're more used to drama queens than is the general public, R541, so it didn't impress us as much.

The NYTimes just released their final polls of congressional districts, they are probably going to move 538's forecast a touch more towards the Dems, it is encouraging data.

Does anyone else in a safe district feel like you're not doing enough? Like, I'm going to vote first thing when the polls open, but it really doesn't matter if I do. I've given money to a ton of out of state races, and I've done my bit on social media. But it's not like in 2006 and 2008, where I was somewhere where I felt like my vote really mattered. I know part of that is a factor of moving from a purple (although now pretty solidly blue) state to a true blue one, but I can't help feeling like I should have done more.

Yeah my district is very blue, both my senators are blue and very safe r544. I voted, but I knew it didn't really matter. I don't live in a competitive region. I'm sure lots of DLers are in a similar position since this board attracts a lot of urban gay men.

New anti Cruz ad starting Donald Trump!

I think we will be much more alert to the cheating factor and ready to pounce. People lik Eric Holder do not fuck around. BTW Sally Yates, also a Georgian, Endorsed Stacey, and she will not fuck around either. Look. They're Republicans. It's their nature t o lie cheat and steal. But we will not let them get away with it this time. No way.

Twitter removed thousands of accounts discouraging US vote participation

Twitter has deleted thousands of automated accounts, many posing as Democrats, that were posting tweets encouraging US voters to sit out Tuesday's crucial midterm elections, according to media reports.

[quote] but I can't help feeling like I should have done more.

Bake cookies and pass out to people standing in long lines.

Voting closes in Kentucky at 6pm. KY6 will be the first race to watch out for.

Tuesday night is going to break so many sites.

Actually, R549, making sandwiches and soup for the campaign offices would be a good thing. Those staff people will very likely get no sleep the night before, then be at the headquarters by 6:30 AM to send out their poll workers. By 11 Am they'll get a count of turnout and determine where they have to deploy door knockers. They will have people running around making phone calls,drivers going in and out,etc. They will appreciate something besides cold pizza and stale doughnuts.

Yes, if honorary lesbian Amy McGrath's race gets called in her favor early, it will be a sign of a good Democratic night.

Come on Amy!

Amy McGrath reminds me of Tom Cruise in Top Gun, and I like it!

Oh, gosh... If Trump is not TROUNCED on Tuesday he will be BEYOND insufferable!!!!

Just to keep things in perspective,Prime time Fox viewers average about 2.5 million daily. That is a 14% DROP in viewers from 2017.

And America will deserve it r555, if we refuse to stand up to Trump in this election, then we deserve him.

Trump is already prepared to blame others for any loses, he has held something like 40 rallies and he will say people love him but those dirty Democrats deceived people.

I'm telling you right now that I can't go through another night like I did two years ago when Trump won. My nerves are way too delicate for that again. I've had awful anxiety issues for 2 whole years and my mind and body have had enough.

We are not going to fail. They will lie, cheat, and steal, and we will try very hard to stop them, and we will be marginally successful, but the fact is we didn't put enough pressure on them early enough to eliminate all the suppression and fraud. We should have done more earlier. Be that as it may. We are alert and ready for them. We will turn out. We will vote, and we will succeed in many ways. We will fall short in some ways. But we will PERSIST. Where ever we fall short, we will know how and where to strike and keep the pressure on them. In many ways we are setting all kinds of traps for the GOP with this election. Remember that. We will see the vulnerabilities and we will be relentless in the courts and on the ground to make sure they don't keep getting away with it. We are waiting for them and we're ready.

MARY!!! r559, if you're that fragile, then don't watch any TV or go online on Tuesday night, because the election is ALL anybody will be talking about.

Philip Rucker Verified account @PhilipRucker

It’s been said a million times, but here’s a million and one — Trump’s rallies are unlike anything else in politics. Currently, Rihanna’s “Don’t Stop the Music” is blaring in Chattanooga as aides toss free Trump T-shirts into the crowd, like a ball game. Everyone’s loving it.

Rihanna Verified account @rihanna

Not for much longer...me nor my people would ever be at or around one of those tragic rallies, so thanks for the heads up philip!

R559, go to a movie. Or stay home and watch a movie. Turn off the TV and read. Miss it all. No matter what the outcome, you will know more on Wednesday morning. So don't worry about it. YOu can't control it so just let it go. No matter what the outcome is we still have to keep working. Even if we win big, we can't afford to stop working.

Blaring Rihanna at a Trump rally? You know damn well she hates his guts. Though I guess finding music from people who don't hate Trump is a hard task.

He's just saying ANYTHING....

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

New Fox Poll shows a “40% Approval Rating by African Americans for President Trump, a record for Republicans.” Thank you, a great honor!

In 2016, I voted early using a disability absentee ballot. I was recovering from injuries at the time. It was such a hassle with the process. One had to fill out forms online, then get a pre-approval, then request the ballot to be mailed, then garner signatures confirming the disability and getting a neighbor's signature where I lived. In 2012, it took over a couple of hours to vote at precinct because only two voting machines were operative. The county official in charge was incompetent and lazy but got re-assigned instead of fired. There was a warehouse of operative machines that were never used that year. I will vote Tuesday, and try to go mid-morning, hoping the lines are not bad.

In another county in 2016, my nephew got turned away from voting. He is a University math instructor with multiple IDs available noting who he was. They erroneously claimed someone else has the same name in an upstate county. Rather than offering him a provisional ballot, he had to drive 18 miles away to the county's election office, get an approval, then drive back to the precinct to vote.

This is a red state with some blue counties.

Phil Rucker been BUSTED!!!!!! LOL!!!

No r565, he's just lying again.

Have we become so desensitized to his lies that we don't even acknowledge them as such anymore?

I predict Democrats win the house but Trump will do something crazy immediately afterwards like firing Rosenstein to distract the media.

Phil Rucker lied? What??!

Phil Rucker was just reporting about what went on at the Trump rally, which alerted Rihanna to the fact that her music is being used at Trump rallys.

Aren’t Republicans probably going to pick up seats in the Senate and keep it? That’s how they’ll spin it while Dems take the House. Conway already started her shit saying keeping the Senate will be historic.

I better not turn on the TV Tuesday night and see Rachel Maddow and Brian Williams calling race after race for Republicans and wondering why Democrats didn't turn out. Please tell me that's not going to happen.

r571, Rucker was doing a bit more than just reporting it, he sounded downright giddy in his tweet.

So funny that his tweet alerted Rihanna to the unauthorized use of her music at a Trump rally; something she clearly is completely against due to her political leanings.

[quote]Conway already started her shit saying keeping the Senate will be historic.

This is a historically bad senate map, Dems are defending 25 of their 48 seats, Republicans are defending only 8 of their 52.

They can try to spin it all the want, but this Senate map was a god-send for the GOP, with a map like this the GOP could have easily be gunning for a 60-seat supermajority. No one is talking about that, and there is still a possiblity, though small, that the Dems would flip control of the Senate which is insanity given the fundamentals.

The Republicans have seemed real confident all through this process. Anyone afraid they , and their Russian “friends” have plans to screw with this election? I mean beyond the shit like gerrymandering and voter ID stuff we already know about? I am also worried about Scott Walker calling up the National Guard for Election Day. WTF?

[quote]The Republicans have seemed real confident all through this process.

You really think so? That's not the impression I'm getting at all.

Yeah the GOP does not seem confident at all. I don't know what r576 is talking about. Like r537 said, it is stunning how even they are behaving like they are losing control of the House and desperate to spin it.

And as you point out in your own post r576, Scott Walker is so desperate he is trying to use the National Guard.

R578, yes, Trump is now speaking openly at his rallies about the possibility of losing the House, and how the only thing he is focused on is the Senate. This, presumably, is a direct result of what in-house Republican pollsters are telling him.

How the fuck did that deformed turd, Walker, get elected in the first place? I didn't realize the term 'cheeseheads' was fact-based.

He even survived a recall election attempt r580. But it looks like he is finally going down. Wisconsin has a case of Trump-regret.

Walker is an evil piece of shit. He is much worse than Kemp in GA. I want to see GOP Senate candidate Rick Scott, Governor of Florida go down in flames, Scott Walker go down in flames, De Santis in Florida go down in flames, Kemp in Georgia go down in flames, and Ted Cruz in Texas go down in flames. You can add to my list but these are my top ones. Rick Scott and Scott Walker are the two most despicable anti Democracy monsters in electoral politics. They ought to be in jail.

R566, which state?

Well if you think the Russians won’’t be involved this time, good. I just feel nobody on the right seems to be all that worried about the big picture. I don’t mean about the House. I mean about their power over the nation in general. I am probably just paranoid. It has been a tough two years.

Well no matter what happens, when we wake up Wednesday Trump will still be President r584. But then the battle for 2020 begins. Hopefully DL can remain relatively sane during the Democratic primary. Democratic primaries do more damage to this board than a general election.

[quote]She is married to Alan Greenspan. Not certain where his loyalties hang.

oh i can tell you he hangs beautifully, such a fine boy

Ugh, I don't even want to think about the 23-person clusterfuck the Democratic primary is going to be going into 2020. Once it gets whittled down a bit, it's still going to be insane but while it's still open to pretty much all comers I can't even imagine how bad it's going to get. They better not let the infighting amongst the candidates take away from the party unity we need to fight the motherfucking CheetoDrumpfer.

Is the weather Republican, too? Weather is going to be terrible Tuesday across the East, parts of the Midwest, and the Plains States. Are volunteers prepared with umbrellas, coffee, and parkas? Watch any of the states with Repug governors declare weather emergencies late Monday night lasting through Tuesday.

Why would the weather affect turnout amongst Democrats and not have the exact same effect on Republicans?

Weather

Weather

Weather

[quote] Hopefully DL can remain relatively sane during the Democratic primary.

Why start now?

Fake Oprah "endorses" Stacey Abrams in new Neo-Nazi–sponsored robocall. This is the same fucker who put out a robocall with someone impersonating Andrew Gillum in "darkie" dialect as jungle drums play in the background.

NEW! From the lovely conservative media!

Black Panthers!

r593, we have to be prepared.

Bernie was damaging.

Hillary was damaging.

We have to be prepared to be united.

R589, it looks like more Repugs have voted early, as usual since a lot of them are old people who use absentee/mail-in ballots. More likely than not, more Democrats are going to the polls on Tuesday with its shitty weather.

Okay... I'll do it....

**OFFICIAL** 2018 Midterms Thread Part 3! CONTINUE ON TO VICTORY!

And we are

OUT!