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House Democrats’ hope for wave election diminishes as Republicans rebound

Democratic hopes for a wave election that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans.

Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose — and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber.

The tightening, with just over two weeks left, reflects how President Trump’s rising approval rating and the polarizing fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh appear to be boosting the party’s candidates in a number of conservative and rural districts that have been considered up for grabs.

But Democrats have retained their strength in key suburban areas, where polls show female voters furious with Trump are likely to help flip Republican-held seats.

“The past few weeks haven’t really diminished Democrats’ chances of a takeover by that much, but they’ve increased the chances of a small Democratic majority,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. He estimated Democrats have a 70 to 75 percent chance of winning the House.

At stake is the fate of the Trump presidency — whether Democrats will gain the power to investigate his administration and thwart his agenda, or if emboldened Republicans will fulfill the president’s vision for the nation, from building a border wall to repeal of the Obama-era health-care law.

Rest at link.

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by Anonymousreply 65December 27, 2018 9:44 PM

Nate Silver reports that the odds the Democrats take control of the house increased in the past week.

In a world where everyone was wrong about 2016 election, he was the most correct.

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by Anonymousreply 1October 21, 2018 12:54 AM

Yes, the 538 forecast is showing that the Democrats have increased their chances of winning the House (and the Republicans have increased their chances of retaining the Senate).

538 is projecting the Democrats to have an 85% chance of winning the House now, with an estimated pickup of nearly 40 seats.

That being said, Cook Political Report has an excellent reputation, too.

by Anonymousreply 2October 21, 2018 12:57 AM

Americans have taken a look around and they're demanding MORE of Mitch McConnell and his destructive agenda. They DEMAND that this country stink like the rotting corpse that it is. I'm through. Might as well stay home on Nov. 6 and become despondent on Nov. 7. You can't fix a country where most of the people are despicable garbage. Almost all of the white American people are scum. Almost.

by Anonymousreply 3October 21, 2018 1:09 AM

Remember — the media will continue to push a horse race narrative until Election Day. It’s more profifor them to push this.

by Anonymousreply 4October 21, 2018 1:14 AM

*profitable

by Anonymousreply 5October 21, 2018 1:14 AM

Conservative pipe dreams are so funny.When will they admit....Trump has destroyed their party an they sat back and let him do it.So sad......

by Anonymousreply 6October 21, 2018 1:15 AM

Ive learned not to count too much on polls.

by Anonymousreply 7October 21, 2018 1:16 AM

The polls were actually fairly accurate at predicting how the election went r7, Clinton won by 2-3 points which is what the polls were saying would happen.

Of course, the presidential election is not based on a popular vote.

by Anonymousreply 8October 21, 2018 1:18 AM

If your despondence is real, then I feel bad for you and I also realize that it is very easy to fall into a funk of giving up and not trying. I hope you are not a ruskie trying to use a more cerebral/emotional way to convince people their votes are worthless, and to use proper english language when presenting your thoughts..... but I cannot help but wonder if that is your underlying intention. I also hope that I am wrong about suspecting that.

by Anonymousreply 9October 21, 2018 1:19 AM

R7 Yes, seriously, polls can be very misleading. I've never been contacted by a poll in my life and probably many people haven't.

It's not over til the Fat Lady sings - on election day.

by Anonymousreply 10October 21, 2018 1:20 AM

"it's never over til the Fat Lady sings - on election day."

Gosh no, I don't want to hear Sarah Huckabee Sanders sing 'Grandma Got Ran Over by a Reindeer'.

by Anonymousreply 11October 21, 2018 1:29 AM

goddamn. I needed the smile you just gave me re: Sarah Not Smile Huckstable

by Anonymousreply 12October 21, 2018 1:33 AM

[quote]Remember — the media will continue to push a horse race narrative until Election Day. It’s more profitable them to push this.

Yeah even this article seems like clickbait, it begrudgingly admits that Democrats are still favored to flip the House, but it tries to frame it otherwise.

Though it also tends to be the case that polls tighten before an election, so we will see.

by Anonymousreply 13October 21, 2018 1:34 AM

I'm not sure why you'd give up before the election and not vote. Plenty of time to do that after the election if things go badly.

I almost hope you are a troll because I hate to think of anyone being that dense--i.e. if you don't vote out of apathy, you're part of the problem.

by Anonymousreply 14October 21, 2018 1:58 AM

That was a ridiculous piece, particularly since it did not note that Democrats are killing it in fund-raising, to an extent that we've never seen before. All he's basically saying is that Republicans are running attack ads. So?

I know they want it to be a close race but seriously? That was just terrible.

by Anonymousreply 15October 21, 2018 2:54 AM

[quote]Nate Silver reports that the odds the Democrats take control of the house increased in the past week.

We don't do Nate Silver anymore. His 15 minutes were up in 2016. He even admitted that he has no idea which way this is going to go, just like he took both positions in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 16October 21, 2018 3:07 AM

[quote]Yes, the 538 forecast is showing that the Democrats have increased their chances of winning the House (and the Republicans have increased their chances of retaining the Senate).

538 and Nate Silver are no longer to be used. We've been over this.

The Cook Report is reputable.

by Anonymousreply 17October 21, 2018 3:09 AM

That's not true, R16. Nate deals in probabilities and statistics. He's being extra careful this year in explaining that he cannot guarantee anything and that all he's providing are probabilities. He didn't take both positions in 2016 and he's not doing that this year.

So yes, 538 absolutely can still be used, with all of the usual caveats.

by Anonymousreply 18October 21, 2018 3:10 AM

Adults are talking talking r16/r17. Run along and play dear.

by Anonymousreply 19October 21, 2018 3:37 AM

OP, who never misses an opportunity to bring some Repub positive news to DL:

- **BREAKING** Chuck Grassley Claims That Dr Ford’s Ex-Boyfriend Witnessed Her Coaching Witness On How To Take Polygraph Test

- Outside counsel in Kavanaugh hearings argues Ford case weak on legal grounds

- Only 46% of white American women believe Dr. Ford

- The supreme hypocrisy of Democrats' Kavanaugh strategy

- Dershowitz: 'All the rules are called off' when the left accuses a white man of sexual offenses

- Trump: “It’s a very scary time for young men in America.”

[quote]Yep.

- Collins On Kavanaugh: Activists Tried To Buy My Vote

- White House Finds No Support in FBI Report for Claims Against Kavanaugh

[quote]Well that’s over.

- DERSHOWITZ: IMPEACHING KAVANAUGH WOULD BE FOOLISH, UNCONSTITUTIONAL

- Trump Attacks ‘Horseface’ Stormy Daniels

- Lindsey Graham: I’m Taking the Cherokee DNA Test Because ‘I Think I Can Beat’ Elizabeth Warren – WATCH

- **BREAKING** Judge throws out Stormy Daniels’s defamation lawsuit against Trump

- Poll: Indicted GOP Rep. Chris Collins holds slim lead in New York House race

- Trump Attacks “Phony Pocahontas” Elizabeth Warren

- McConnell Vows To Try Again On Obamacare Repeal If Republicans Win More Senate Seats In The Midterms

- Senator Mitch McConnell Confronted at Restaurant by Angry Customers

by Anonymousreply 20October 21, 2018 4:22 AM

OP = will vote a solid R on Nov 6:

-- CNN Exclusive: Judge Kavanaugh's Accuser Wants FBI Investigation Before Testifying

[quote][bold]He’s guilty because he has an R after his name. Al Franken and co are totally innocent though. [[[R125]]], Democrats are desperate to get rid of Kavanaugh. They couldn’t care less if it’s true or not. This is all they have. Spare me the “think of the poor woman” routine when this board calls women and the MeToo movement every name in the book. It’s only when it’s convenient do posters suddenly side with the alleged victim.

[quote]When is DNC chairman Keith Ellison going to step down? Dems don’t have a leg to stand on.[/bold]

--- "All Kamala Haris has to do is ask to see his calendar the day of the hearing and see if he wrote any entry in it. If it's not there, he's outta there."

[quote][bold]Oh, is Kamala gonna pretend to know something again and then come up with nothing for the three billionth time? Give me a break. Diane Frankenstein needs her old ass kicked out of the party for sitting on this shit. [/bold]

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by Anonymousreply 21October 21, 2018 4:25 AM

But I thought the DNC, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi were a super team and nothing needed to be fixed?

by Anonymousreply 22October 21, 2018 4:41 AM

[quote]Yeah even this article seems like clickbait, it begrudgingly admits that Democrats are still favored to flip the House, but it tries to frame it otherwise.

Yes, exactly.

The Cook Political Report is actually giving the Democrats decent odds of winning the House.

They're just not as bullish about Democratic chances compared to 538.

But the article headline is misleading.

by Anonymousreply 23October 21, 2018 4:46 AM

Man OP is a tireless right wing agitator. Take a break sometime. Is trying to influence the DL your one goal in life?

by Anonymousreply 24October 21, 2018 5:00 AM

OP is a definition of a troll:

- creates daily threads with an intent to provoke Democrats and liberals posting here

- does not post in these threads (this is why OP never gets flagged or gets FF-ed)

- on a couple of occasions fake-posted as a Democrat (to cover his tracks)

by Anonymousreply 25October 21, 2018 5:13 AM

Reality check: Blacks don't vote or are kept from voting. Latinos don't vote or are kept from voting. LGBT are insignificant numbers . Millennials won't vote unless it's by app on their phone. So millennials don't. That leaves US.

by Anonymousreply 26October 21, 2018 5:43 AM

This article seems like two weeks too late. The pills have been shifting back towards the Dems. And 538 is great. Their podcast is way better than the douchebags on Pod Save America.

by Anonymousreply 27October 21, 2018 6:55 AM

There is some derangement syndrome with national political reporters and editors that causes them to obsessively report Democrats in disarray and horse race stories, regardless of the actual fundamentals. See the 2016 presidential race and the insane amount of negative coverage of Clinton's emails.

This is more of that. The "diminishing" hope for a wave election is basically restricted to the Senate map. The fact that Republicans are openly admitting that their best case scenario in the House is hanging on to the majority by one or two seats should give anyone who isn't a total naif a pretty good idea of what's actually going on in the races for that chamber.

The races for governor are already looking like a slaughter for Republicans. Democrats are almost certain to win the governor's mansions in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania; are likely to win it in Iowa and Wisconsin; and are dead even in Ohio. A sweep of every governor's race in the Rust Belt is possible--even likely--for Democrats, which would represent a total repudiation of Trump in the region in which he is supposedly the GOP's secret sauce. Maine and New Mexico are flipping to the Democrats and California, Colorado, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island will be held. The Democrat has led in Florida's polls for literally the entire race except for one Gravis one in early September. Georgia and Nevada are dead heats. Alaska and Kansas, two of the most Republican states in the country, are within reach for Democrats. Two weeks before election day, Oklahoma and South Dakota are not listed as safe for the GOP by 538 or Larry Sabato...OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. The idea that this won't be a wave election is untenable. Democrats are likely to net somewhere around ten governorships.

State legislatures--not every state will look like Virginia's results last year, but most of them will be closer to that than the 2014 midterms.

But the headlines are all about how Democrats may not manage to win over 80% of the races on the most difficult Senate map in living memory (maybe ever). Not about any of this. There's no chicken little story the media doesn't slaver over when it comes to the Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 28October 21, 2018 7:29 AM

A blue sweep of state houses will help a lot because that means control during the 2020 reapportionment.

The Senate is really the one big problem for the Democrats--and the GOP is resorting, again, to dirty tricks--massive voter disenfranchisement--to make it so. That the GOP is being this brazen about it is a tell that they're worried.

by Anonymousreply 29October 21, 2018 9:56 PM

This is all bullshit...there is no way almost 2 years of momentum is going to come to a halt...turn out is going to break records....

by Anonymousreply 30October 21, 2018 10:02 PM

Dems need to stop 'hoping' and start playing dirty. They need to investigate which Republicans leaked the Blasey-Ford info, because that's who ultimately benefited from the scandal. They need to keep investigating Kavanaugh; he's still the lying creep he was before he got hired for the SCOTUS job. They need to demand Trump's tax returns NOW.

I find this whole election season eerily quiet. Dems are talking about healthcare when they need to be talking about treason and collusion.

by Anonymousreply 31October 21, 2018 11:52 PM

They can't do most of that, R31, until they take back the House. They've already announced that investigations of the Trump campaign and administration, including demanding Trump's tax returns, are very much in the plan.

by Anonymousreply 32October 21, 2018 11:58 PM

The headline pretty much is exactly what the Cook Political Report is claiming. Still a majority but not the "wave" (flipping forty seats) some Ds had hoped for.

by Anonymousreply 33October 22, 2018 12:55 AM

how are they rebounding?

by Anonymousreply 34October 22, 2018 12:57 AM

All that Cook did was shift the range down by five, from a gain of 25-45 to a gain of 20-40. And that was on the 16th.

by Anonymousreply 35October 22, 2018 12:58 AM

Saving thread

by Anonymousreply 36October 22, 2018 1:05 AM

No no, you are letting facts get in the way r35. You don't understand, the sky is falling, the Dems are failing hard !11!!!

by Anonymousreply 37October 22, 2018 1:07 AM

It is astonishing to me that a whole bunch of the country, the wishy washy "undecided", have no concept of exactly how EVIL the Republican party is from top to bottom and that voting for them is like sticking a gun in your mouth and pulling the trigger. They just have no idea of what they really are.

by Anonymousreply 38October 22, 2018 1:12 AM

And the Dems have no idea on how to effectively communicate to voters how evil the Repugs really are.

by Anonymousreply 39October 22, 2018 3:24 AM

R39: The media won't let them. They'll tut tut them for being extremist, and then proceed to cook up bullshit about how "both sides do it". Because if they don't, then Republicans will call the media LIBERAL, and that can't be. So the media goes out of it's way to prove how not liberal they are by defending Republicans and not letting Democrats tell the truth about the bastards.

by Anonymousreply 40October 22, 2018 3:33 AM

I live deep in Red country in a slightly purple state, and the front page headline of the adjacent city reported that 10,000 people had already voted early. That’s about 10% of all registered voters, an unheard of turnout on an off year.

I shall be labeled Boris, but that isn’t good.

by Anonymousreply 41October 22, 2018 3:48 AM

I have OP blocked for what it is worth.

I remember the feeling here in the south during 2006. It feels the same if not way more now.

by Anonymousreply 42October 22, 2018 3:52 AM

538 is much more positive about House gains than Cook, saying Dems now have an 85% chance of taking control. That’s the highest it’s been, and it’s an improvement over a week ago.

He does say Dems will likely lose 1-3 Senate seats. Still, taking the House would be a big deal. Don5 let negative news take over your head space.

by Anonymousreply 43October 22, 2018 4:30 AM

Why do we quote from Nate these days? After what happened....

by Anonymousreply 44October 22, 2018 5:14 AM

Nate Silver tweeted he had no clue what would happen. Stop posting his bullshit.

by Anonymousreply 45October 22, 2018 5:17 AM

[quote] I have OP blocked for what it is worth.

For that to be true you wouldn’t have found this thread.

by Anonymousreply 46October 22, 2018 5:18 AM

Not true, R46. I get threads with no OP sometimes. This isn't one of them for me, but it's happened.

by Anonymousreply 47October 22, 2018 5:24 AM

I'm posting this in every political thread, immigration thread, and trans thread: From a Justice Department statement two days ago, regarding their discovery of an instruction manual for Russian troll farms:

"The instructions show how the Russian trolls tried to manipulate the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community. They also allegedly wanted to take advantage of racial divisions within LGBT audiences, and some of their instructions appear to lean on blatantly racist stereotypes.

"Colored LGBT are less sophisticated than white; therefore, complicated phrases and messages do not work," the instructions allegedly said. "Be careful dealing with racial content. Just like ordinary Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans, colored LGBT people are very sensitive towards #whiteprivilege and they react to posts and pictures that favor white people."

Some parts of the Russians' efforts to target LGBT voters have already been revealed, including a Facebook group called "LGBT United" that posted some ads that went viral in 2016."

If it sounds like a troll, it IS a troll.....

by Anonymousreply 48October 22, 2018 6:36 AM

[quote]Nate Silver tweeted he had no clue what would happen. Stop posting his bullshit.

Why do you think repeatedly lying like this is going to do any good here? We know you're full of shit; you don't need to post to prove it.

by Anonymousreply 49October 22, 2018 8:17 PM

Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched states, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.

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by Anonymousreply 50October 22, 2018 11:01 PM

I don't give a fig what the data says. I'm voting and have been convincing like minded people to vote as well.

by Anonymousreply 51October 22, 2018 11:17 PM

We've already discussed that, R51, since it's been cross-posted to a dozen threads. It's just more bullshit, undermined by its own argument:

[quote]Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.

by Anonymousreply 52October 22, 2018 11:25 PM

It's anecdotal but I do love stories like this.

[quote]A political action committee run by Republican women opposed to Donald Trump is getting involved in Michigan's most competitive Congressional races — and supporting the Democrat candidates.

[quote]Republican Women for Progress PAC tells Metro Times it has taken out $50,000 television ad buys in Michigan's 11th and 8th Congressional District races. Both races feature a moderate Democrat against a Trump-aligned Republican. In MI-11, Democrat Haley Stevens is up against Republican Lena Epstein, the former Michigan chair for the Trump campaign. In MI-08, Elissa Slotkin is trying to unseat incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop.

[quote]“We think the best thing that we can do for the party and for the country right now is to make sure there are good women — Democrat or Republican — that are elected to office and who can serve as a check on this administration and on the president," says Meghan Milloy, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress. "[This effort] really was inspired by us talking to Republican women in these districts where they said there was just no way that they could vote for the Republican.”

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by Anonymousreply 53October 23, 2018 2:53 AM

R48 - There absolutely is evidence that the Russians have attempted to interfere in the 2018 midterms.

However you're being naive if you think there aren't people who aren't trolls posting the same thing as trolls. The reason why this works is because people are susceptible.

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by Anonymousreply 54October 23, 2018 2:20 PM

From an NPR story on Russian trolls:

"Agitation specialists work in shifts and they schedule their days around specific targets. The Russians believe gay and lesbian users tend to stay up late, according to the charging documents released Friday. Conservatives tend to get up early, they believe."

So, do we get more troll-style posts late at night?

by Anonymousreply 55October 23, 2018 7:47 PM

It’s all hard to tell. But Republicans lie. It’s part of their brand. So nothing pro-Republican can be trusted.

by Anonymousreply 56October 23, 2018 9:08 PM

Just wanted to bump so this troll thread gets owned. I had OP on block for a reason.

by Anonymousreply 57November 23, 2018 3:21 PM

Republicans are unable to gauge the black vote. These huge black drives to get out the vote gives them nightmares.

They're so terrified of losing in Mississippi on Tuesday that they are sending Turd down there on Monday.

by Anonymousreply 58November 23, 2018 3:30 PM

Yeah I hunted down some neo-nazi trolls on social media I was debating about this very topic, all of them predicting a “REDWAVE!!!” so I could gloat.

Why do I waste my time?

A few of them were real accounts and they’ve moved onto the next rightwing meme, how they are going to overturn Roe v Wade, and won’t even engage on their loss of the House.

But most were burner troll accounts either shut down or so often blocked they’ve moved on to other puppet accounts.

by Anonymousreply 59November 23, 2018 3:35 PM

This was the largest wave since watergate

by Anonymousreply 60November 23, 2018 3:48 PM

Their 3rd largest of all time.

by Anonymousreply 61November 23, 2018 3:49 PM

What Tryory was this bullshit?

Another Republican propaganda thread I missed int he days just before REALITY set in.

by Anonymousreply 62November 23, 2018 3:52 PM

Of course. The OP was already blocked and is probably in the Moscow gulags as we speak begging for moldy bread and lead water before being sent back out to post more Russian troll shit.

by Anonymousreply 63November 23, 2018 4:00 PM

Trump's ill-temper and quick firing of Sessions hint at how panicked the Russiapublicans were after Nov. 6th.

by Anonymousreply 64November 23, 2018 4:01 PM

This post is still so funny. Trolls just don't know when to stop.

by Anonymousreply 65December 27, 2018 9:44 PM
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