**Official** 2018 Midterms Thread

AZ and NV.

Good sign!

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts.

NYT 2018 Election articles.

California voters, check your ballot status here (mailed, received, counted).

This guy is demonstrating how a dem can win in deep red NC.

Democrats are really trying this year. I’ll give them that.

WEHT Paul “Yellow Coward” Ryan?

Florida Voter Info:

If you need assistance, please call the Voter Assistance Hotline:

Phone Number: 1-866-308-6739

Hours: Monday - Friday 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM (Eastern Time)

If you are hearing or speech impaired, please contact the Division using the Florida Relay Service, 1.800.955.8771 (TDD) or 1.800.955-8770 (Voice).

For more information visit the Florida Relay Service.

R9, he's retiring from the House. Private sector, and then who knows. I believe a charismatic steel plant worker is running against his Republican replacement.

What a waste of a career. He did nothing.

R12, he gutted the ACA and passed huge tax cuts for billionaires. He's headed to an extremely lucrative private sector gig and has bamboozled the press into thinking he's a "responsible, thoughtful leader." He has the option to return to politics (Senate, etc.) and his PAC is the biggest (disclosed) player on the GOP's side this election.

Sociopaths win sometimes, I guess.

All that happened in spite of him, not because of him. He’s not exactly effective. He’s just a place holder. IMO.

Good riddance.

Go Vermont!

r8, excellent democrat candidates have come out of the woodwork this year!

If any good has come from this traitorous regime, it is that qualified people who never would have considered politics before are running and have good chances of winning.

This has considerably "deepened the bench" of potential future senators and possible presidents. Most of these candidates are young, many are former military and they have new ideas that fit well with their districts.

Right after the 2016 election, all I heard about was how democrats had no "bench". There were no candidates in the pipeline, it was all just Clinton and Obama people. The media was leaving us for dead.

Now, we have an embarrassment of riches with so many young, enthusiastic candidates all over the country.

Is that Mrs Bernie Sanders in r15 ?

National voter suppression update.

Countdown

Early voting counts triple in Georga:

So much voter suppression in Georgia. It's like Russia or something.

I love those people from Atlanta who act like their state is the new California (many of whom don't vote, btw). Yeah, but they have a state government that stuck in the 1830s.

We need to be seeing ads coming out highlighting republican plans to dismantle social security and pre existing conditions protections. .

Let’s hope the dems close it in the last couple of weeks. The numbers are there. It’s all down to turn out.

Yes, r22....

Somebody PLEASE bring this fucking turtle down...

His resemblance to a turtle is truly uncanny.

We have a good chance to take the House.

We will not take the Senate this year.

Especially when you think about his snake DNA being dominant, r26.

These ads need to be pre-existing conditions all day and night from now till November.

Surely deplorables have pre-existing conditions. They are on full display at the rallies. I’m sure they have to designate mostly handicap spaces at the venues.

Trump attacks fuel GOP fears about losing suburban women....

This fucking migration panic is going to help the bastard.

R24 THIS is what I don't understand. They pass unsustainable tax cuts for the rich, and then say they need to get rid of social security and medicare. WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL SUPPORTING THIS?

[quote]WEHT Paul “Yellow Coward” Ryan?

He retired to spend more time with his teenage kids.....LOL

"Dozens of black senior citizens in Louisville, Georgia, were ordered off a bus bound for the polls Monday after county officials said the event constituted prohibited "political activity." Activists called it an "intimidation tactic" in a razor-thin race for governor that's become engulfed in a fight over voting rights."

Let's be really clear: If Republicans manage to steal yet another election and hold on to Congress (both houses), this country is over.

This is our last chance. This won't be a free or fair election, but it's the last one we'll have if we don't turn out in such numbers that we overwhelm their attempts to suppress/purge/steal it.

Democrats have to take back mayorships, city councils, governorships, as well as Congress. We have to win everywhere. We have to send as much of the GOP packing as we can, and then turn around and do it again, even harder, in 2020. Or Democracy is dead, and the American Experiment fails. We will become a fascist rogue nation and banana republic. Our future will be gone.

The choice is as stark as it is important. Get off your asses and vote for Democrats. No splitting with 3rd parties or 'protest' votes. Unite and vote out the GOP. Period. And get everyone you know to do the same.

I can't imagine the majority of GOP-controlled states will allow a free and fair vote where the results indicate they've lost important offices. They'll just lie and destroy votes. RIght?

"Yeah, but they aren't speaking to MY community... Where's the representation?"

[Dem nods head, concedes supposed incompetence at "failing" to "reach out" to the particular community.]

Screw that. The GOP wants to destroy you, the Dems — who have A LOT on their plate — are trying to help/protect you, regardless of the lack of custom pandering.

Just one example of the idiotic refrain of our "failing to reach out." In this case, to Latino (yes, artificial ethnocultural construct, blah blah) voters.

Don't vote. See what happens if Dems lose.

Trump is going to send troops to the border. Get people riled up and feeling if they don't vote GOP, they're not "supporting the troops."

This district in VA is a bellwether.

R40, spot-on, but I wonder when that video is from: my understanding is it's getting a bit tighter now.

My best friends' parents live in McLean and he's talked to them about voting for Wexton (and they're doing so).

Yeah that video is probably obsolete now but an interesting race to watch.

There’s a few like this on the east coast that could be the canaries in the coalmine. There are a few in VA, NC, GA and of course FL that could signal where the night will go.

Just about 3 weeks to go now.

19 days.

Every day last week, I received a flyer in the mail about how the local GOP rep (ancient turd basket) voted to strip healthcare, raise taxes for the middle class to pay for welfare for the wealthy, and raise prescription drug prices on seniors.

Thus is a VERY gerrymandered district but the Dem is polling within the margin of error and there are many young people out working for him in the streets.

The GOP candidate won't show his face. Too busy suckin g off the Kochs trying to get money.

Too bad the Dem has also out fund raised him, too.

Good news ^

The repugs in a few districts over had their signs out weeks ago and they are all worn out with rain and wind and they look like absolute crap.

The local dems must have just got some cash because they put out signs this week and they are all crispy and fresh.

Good news for the resistance:

That has huge ramifications for the next round of redistricting, R46. Retaking some of those governor's mansions is as important as taking back the House.

How CEOs are donating.

So R42 or anyone who cares to answer, how early are you likely to know which way the winds are blowing? Here in Australia, if the result is going to be obvious you can usually tell quite early after the polls close and exit polls and then results begin coming in from booths on the east coast. They indicate if a swing is occurring either for or against the incumbent government. If the indications are a big swing against the govt then the likelihood of that continuing across the various electorates can signify a change of government quite early in the night. Of course there are always a few seats/electorates that go against the trend but on the whole it tends to be reflected across the country. If it's close, it can take all night or even days before a result is known. Like many people around this planet of ours I'll be watching your election closely and hope it goes well for the Democrats so finger's crossed for you.

We have our own by-election here on Saturday to elect a replacement member of parliament for our prime minister, who was ousted as leader in a coup and so quit politics. If the govt lose the seat, and there's a good chance of that happening, it will lose its one seat majority in our lower house. There's not much chance of Labor (Democrat equiv) winning as it's basically a safe Liberal (Repub) seat but the residents there, of what are mostly wealthy Sydney beach and harbourside suburbs, are pissed off about their rep, the PM, being knifed, and a local well-known independent, a gay doctor, has a good chance of winning it. She's sort of 'Liberal lite' but at least has better policies on the environment and our shameful locking up of refugees on Pacific Islands than the current rabble in charge. I know Trump takes the cake when it comes to assholes, but we have quite a few in power too. Our new PM, who is an evangelical happy clapper 'Christian' announced the other day he was thinking of moving the Oz Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem (remind you of anyone?) in order to try and win the Jewish vote in the by-election as Jews make-up about 13% of the voters in that electorate (high % for Oz). Of course it set off a shitstorm of controversy and the irony is that since the election is on Saturday, most Jewish people will have voted before his cynical announcement. Anyway TIA for any info on how soon a trend is likely to emerge in your elections and cross your fingers for 'us' here on Saturday.

"There's a healthy love of capitalism and opportunity for free markets in this state, and it can transcend the social strife and political issues here," she said.

But if turnout among Republicans is low, she said, a very different reality is possible.

"Nancy Pelosi will become speaker, and you will not recognize America," Guilfoyle said.

I am so nervous about all this. Thanks for posting so I can read about the midterms.

R49 that’s a good question for our resident poll troll who makes an appearance from time to time. He usually takes the floor on election nights.

But generally speaking, we can probably begin to read the tea leaves after the first poll closings come in just after 7pm or 7:30 pm EST.

That being said, there are many different issues at stake across different regions so it will most likely be down to the wire.

Early in-person voting has already begun in some states. It’s off to the races.

Oh and good luck in your district in OZ.

House GOP leader McMorris Rodgers faces Obamacare backlash.

HA HA!

“In past election cycles, the seven-term lawmaker might have had an easy talking point: Repeal and replace Obamacare. But like other Republicans who suddenly find themselves on the defensive on health care, she avoids mentioning her party’s long-standing pledge to eliminate the 2010 law.”

Cat got your tounge?

Serious question for Californians: If someone moves to another county and legislative district within a state 15 days before election day, does he vote for his previous address's candidates, or can he update his address info at DMV in time to vote for the candidates representing his new address?

I'm very nervous about this and the way the Republicans are trying to suppress Democratic voters.

Thanks R52/R53. Yes, I was thinking that you probably have more diversity in terms of local/state issues which might make it harder to call early. We have regions and electorates that are considered 'safe' for one of the two major parties and then what are called 'swing seats', which often change hands, and marginal seats, which as the name suggests are held by a slim majority and are often up for grabs. In our equivalent of a 'wave' those swing and marginal seats are the ones that will flip and lead to a change in government. Sometimes just a few seats can make the difference (like with your Rust Belt outcome). What would make a Liberal loss on Saturday so good is that it's considered a very safe seat for them, or was until this latest debacle. Our current govt are just about as fucked as your's unfortunately.

Not sure about CA but confirm before you vote. Don’t risk it being thrown out.

I’m guessing you would want to do a change of address and register to vote all at the DMV with the new address since technically you don’t live in the other district any longer. That’s my hunch.

that should tell you how frightened they are, r57.

I really hope that black woman wins the race for governor. She's running against a guy who is personally removing large numbers of black people from the voting rolls. Republicans are such shameless cheats. They know it's the only way they can win.

It's baaaaaack!

Beto town hall talking place on CNN right now.

He seems....animated. lol

R35 is right. It sucks that it always have to come to this: a bridge has to collapse and people have to die before repairs on what remains are made, etc.

*has to

Overall encouraging, but note:

[quote] Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties, with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm. If turnout among Democratic-leaning groups actually outpaces that among Republican-leaning ones, Democrats will beat their polls and our projections.

[quote] It’s just as easy to imagine the error running the other way, however. Maybe, precisely because fundraising has become easier, including winning contributions from out-of-state and out-of-district donors, it’s no longer as meaningful an indicator of candidates’ grassroots appeal or organizational strength. Maybe the demographics of the Republican coalition have changed such that they’ll no longer raise as much money but will still get plenty of votes. Or maybe the GOP can make up for their lack of individual fundraising with more money from outside groups.

R56 there's a phone number to call and office hours noted on this page.

Here are my predictions for the Senate tossups:

Manchin Wins Donnelly Wins McCaskill Wins Sinema Wins Rosen Wins Nelson Wins

Heitkamp Loses Beto Loses

I can't make a call on Tennessee

R68 Agree with you, though Native Americans are making a big push to overcome the new Voter ID requirements. I hope Heitkamp pulls it off, but hope may be all I have. Beto? Yeah, unless a miracle, he loses.

But Tennessee... Let's just hope Blackburn or Trump for Blackburn puts their collective feet in their mouths in the last week. Though Bredesen is popular and has lead the polls quite often.

I want the Dems to win but am feeling very nervous about midterms. There are so many ways to divert the outcome of an election and Repugs will stop at nothing. I have an increasingly sinking feeling we're fucked.

Make sure to add thoughts to your prayers, r70....

GOP war room. Where they make shit up and deploy it.

WHY are blue states electing GOP governors?!!?!?!

Dodge City, KS, moves its only polling place outside town and a mile from the nearest bus stop.

R73 I'm from New England and we elect plenty of GOP governors here. They are nothing like the national party. Despite having GOP governors, policy wise we are pretty much California policy wise

R75, what about district line-drawing (for the federal House and Senate)? Is there much gerrymandering?

We need the state government trifectas (executive, upper house, lower house) so we can eliminate GOP gerrymandering - appoint independent commissions to draw up the lines (NOT gerrymander them ourselves).

R76 I only know of CT's actual district boundaries and they are lightly gerrymandered for Dems. We had a GOP governor in 2010 and she signed off on that map. For what it's worth, Dems also control the state house and senate. All our senators and congressmen are democrats. And we are a very liberal state. So I've never minded the GOP governors and would vote for a good one (Though I don't like the one running this year)

R78, I lived in CT for four years and yeah, it's very liberal. There's just something about having the trifecta however - demoralizes the GOP when we have it.

I can't even....

Vermont congressional candidate responds to Republican incumbent who repeatedly refers to her as Nancy Pelosi.

That was one hell of a smackdown, R81. Thanks for sharing that.

Clapback!

did you see that rat fuckers smug face in that clip?

I love how the crowd laughed at him and cheered for her. He thinks he is going to win. I hope she breaks her foot off in his smug white make ass.

I'm so sick of their interference. Our next Dem president better hit back HARD. That's all bullies understand.

For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout

Polls show enthusiasm surging in many mostly white suburban districts, but less so among young and nonwhite voters.

We haven't discussed cutie Joe Radinovich, have we? He's the Dem running in MN-08, which is the only Dem seat the Reps are likely to flip.

Straight and engaged. Let's find a pic of him in shorts, at least.

Nice ass on that Joe R.

Concerning the supposition in the article at R89's link, were the conservatives and fascists in Germany all a bunch of asshole, loser males? I realize that in the 1940s women weren't in any kind of power positions in general society but I don't think the groups that started the Nazi party were made exclusively of loser men who couldn't find dates because they were ugly and mentally ill. I think we are giving these groups like the Proud Boys (do they realize how gay their name sounds?) too much credit because the media likes the spectacle they create.

Wisconsin gov race is a tight one.

I have to say, if Beto loses I will be DEVASTATED. I want that win so bad I can taste it. I’ve been suppporting him with money for a year now. I will be upset about Heitkamp too, but I keep fighting til the bitter end. Don’t look at polls, this is all a ground game now. I am soooooooo hopeful for Stacey Abrams, Amy McGrath, Sinema, and the IL and WI gov races.

On SM, I keep repeating — talk to workers. Grocery cashiers, gas station attendants, retail/restaurant workers, cab drivers. Tell them they need to vote to protect their own asses, for their healthcare and wages. My goal is to get a “yes” from five working class people to vote, and tell them I’m bringing them a little treat for voting! I’m making cupcakes and will deliver them, no shit.

I don’t care how dumb I look, I’m not being shy. Every single vote matters, and will have ripple effects. It’s not enough to post on DL, SM, small talk. Everyone needs to be doing something — phone banks, canvas, postcards, text campaigns. DO it you lazy whores.

I don't get it. Even though Warren is safely ahead in her polls for MA Senate, I look on twitter after her debate with Diehl tonight and most of the comments are pro-Diehl!!!! Some of them could be bots but some look real. It's just bizarre

It really gives the impression that conservatives are more invested in voting than liberals which pisses me off

I would love to see Walker in jail.

He is scum.

The 'We didn't vote because it won't make a difference' problem.

Don't fall for it - VOTE!

[quote] Nice ass on that Joe R.

What ass?!

You are absolutely correct R92 ... and I love you!

Thanks R53 for your good wishes - they must have helped - the gay doctor independent won with the largest swing against the government in Australia's history, taking a seat from our version of the Republicans that they have held since we became a nation 117 years ago. Let's hope that's a good omen and history repeats itself on your side of the Pacific Ocean.

What if the Republicans Win Everything Again?

The end of Robert Mueller’s investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.

These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And don’t fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.

No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win won’t automatically translate into a House majority.

In the Senate, the election already seems to be slipping away from the Democrats. Several of this year’s close Senate races happen to involve Democrats defending seats in red states. As a result, Republicans may expand their current 51-49 majority, making it easier for them to win close votes on legislation and nominations.

If Trump and his evil counterparts can’t convince people to vote then nothing will and America deserves him.

R99, he left out the big ones: Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. A Republican Party remaining in power would truly be unleashed, with potentially another couple of votes in the Senate and with McCain gone, the barriers would be removed.

ELECTIONS 18 | U.S. HOUSE DISTRICT 23

DEL RIO — On paper, Gina Ortiz Jones is one of Texas’ strongest Democratic congressional candidates.

She’s a woman. She’s an Air Force veteran. She’s openly gay. She’s the daughter of a Filipina immigrant who raised her as a single mom.

If her southwest Texas district, which stretches from El Paso to San Antonio, followed national Democratic trends, Jones would be a shoo-in to win in November.

Jones’ problem is that it doesn’t.

Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, the only true swing district in the state, is almost evenly split between Democrat and Republican voters. For the last four years, the heavily Latino district has been represented by Republican Will Hurd, an African American who has won over constituents by focusing on outreach and blazing an independent streak that has at times put him at odds with President Donald Trump.

But Jones, a 37-year-old from San Antonio and a political newcomer, sees a path to victory. She can best represent the district because she knows what its residents have experienced, she says.

“Not many people go from reduced lunch to the executive office of the White House,” she says, referring to her time as a security adviser on trade in the Obama administration.

more at link

[quote]"This week I have talked to many Alaskans to determine whether I or Mark Begich had a better chance of running a competitive race against Mike Dunleavy," Walker added. "The determination was made that, at this point, Begich has the better odds. Alaskans deserve a competitive race."

more at link

Houston Chronicle:

With eyes clear but certainly not starry, we enthusiastically endorse Beto O'Rourke for U.S. Senate. The West Texas congressman's command of issues that matter to this state, his unaffected eloquence and his eagerness to reach out to all Texans make him one of the most impressive candidates this editorial board has encountered in many years.

Ted Cruz — a candidate the Chronicle endorsed in 2012, by the way — is the junior senator from Texas in name only. Exhibiting little interest in addressing the needs of his fellow Texans during his six years in office, he has kept his eyes on a higher prize. He's been running for president since he took the oath of office.

It was the rookie Cruz, riding high after a double-digit win in 2012, who brazenly took the lead in a 2013 federal government shutdown, an exercise in self-aggrandizement that he hoped would lead to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Cruz, instead, undercut the economy, cost taxpayers an estimated $2 billion (and inflicted his reading of Dr. Seuss's "Green Eggs and Ham" on an unamused nation). Maybe the senator succeeded in cementing in his obstructionist tea party bona fides, but we don't recall Texans clamoring for such an ill-considered, self-serving stunt.

Because gay Sharia law is the worst Sharia law:

Congrats r98! Great news. Let’s make it a global trend!

Wow the Chronical just read Lyin’ Teds beads.

He has done NOTHING for Texas. He’s a Canadian for Christ sakes.

As far as I can tell, all these seats are still in play for democrats. Even TX and ND.

Remember that ever democrat that has run since 2016 has beaten the polls...some by as much as 8%.

Remind me DL, what were the polls like in the AZ Senate race (that Doug Jones won)?

^^ Sorry, ALABAMA Senate race. LOL was thinking of current state of play in AZ.

[quote]Wow the Chronical just read Lyin’ Teds beads. He has done NOTHING for Texas. He’s a Canadian for Christ sakes.

It's good news, but stay focused. Get out the vote!

I really hope Beto doesn't turn into a Jon Ossoff...loses after a lot of momentum and press only to be forgotten soon after

Repubs will win both due to their cheating.

IMO everybody who is unable to vote yet still registered and tried to vote should take it to court. They tried being represented but republicans DO NOT WANT THEM AND REMOVED THEM so they should say they shouldn't have to pay their taxes.

No taxation without representation, yeah?

All probability aside I want Beto to win. In large part because we're at a moment when it's clear policies don't matter. GOP distrusts the IC community, opposes free trade, doesn't give a fuck about federal spending. All we can bet on is character and ethics. You couldn't ask for a starker divide in Cruz and Beto on that front.

Bump

"Libraries say Kentucky (state) senator tried to pressure them into canceling opponent’s forums"

[quote]State Sen. Tom Buford, R-Nicholasville, protested the use of public library meeting rooms for “Teacher Talks” forums held by his Democratic challenger, and he tried to pressure the libraries’ directors into canceling the events, according to interviews with the directors on Friday.

[quote]Buford confirmed calling the libraries in his own interview Friday, saying he believes it’s wrong for political events to be held in public buildings. Even President Trump’s political rally last Saturday at Eastern Kentucky University’s Alumni Coliseum, which Buford attended, “made me a little uncomfortable, because that’s a state building,” he said.

[quote]“I explained to (the librarians) I have been a very good friend of libraries and I did not think this was a very good use of public funds,” Buford said. “To me, it was unethical.”

[quote]Carolyn Dupont, the Democratic nominee in Senate District 22, has booked meeting rooms at five different libraries around the district over the last two weeks for forums with teachers to discuss education-related issues.

more at link

In Florida.....

Anybody know why DL was down for a bit?

Good for Gillum. Dems need candidates who can attack dog with the best of them .

Looks like Nelson is taking the lead in Florida ahead of batboy.

^ escaping his lead

Wow... Did you see the other Florida result from that CNN poll? Gillum +12 over DeSantis? That's a huge outlier, as the three prior polls all had Gillum up by just 1. I wonder if it's accurate? I distrust anything that breaks that far from other polls. That said, I do like Gillum's chances to win. DeSantis got wrong-footed early in the campaign and he never got back on track.

Go Florida!

They’ve had enough of the red slime, in more ways than one.

Latino wave in trouble:

DeSantis is pure racist slime.

He better not fucking win in 2 weeks.

A poll just showed Gillum up by 12. That is an outlier, but Desantis has not led Gillum in a single poll since the primary. Not one

I think the Trump at 47% poll is an outlier as well.

No way that fucking Orange Cretin is doing that well (relatively).

Shocking turnout for first day of early voting in Houston

Thousands of people were already camped out at a key early voting location in Houston on Monday morning, hours before voting was even set to begin. Nearly 2,000 people stood in line outside of the Metropolitan Multi-Service Center in a scene that looked more like a black Friday shopping morning. "This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes," said Cody Pogue, who arrived at 8:30 p.m. on Sunday to make sure he'd be one of the first people to cast a ballot for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke.

Stoke that fear Donnie, stoke that fear....

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Monday said a caravan of migrants making their way toward the United States included “criminals and unknown Middle Easterners,” and that Mexican authorities are “unable to stop” them.

Well, that posted before I edited, but you get the point. More at link.

Hopefully the caravan will remind all the independents that repugs will separate newborns from their parents just for a few political points.

Looks like I may be voting today. Don't worry it will be straight Dem.

Go Gillum!

I feel good about the midterms. All I ask is that Dem voters show up. I don’t want to read that 75 percent of young voters stayed home.

R126, I fucking hate articles like that, devoid of actual content. When you read it, what you find is that they interviewed a few cynical Latino voters. There is zero data in that article to back up the claim. It's just the usual media bullshit of trying to make a real horse race out of it because that's what sells. It's the same kind of clickbait article that the Washington Post had and it has the same problems: lack of data.

Meanwhile, when you look at the actual data, including polls and early voting, Latino enthusiasm and participation are up.

The media wants a horse race, and they will do ANYTHING to try to create one with two weeks to go; including pushing articles like the above that have no real facts to back up their assertions, and the constant polls that keep suggesting that the races (even for the House) are getting closer and the Democrats are in mortal danger of losing their advantage.

Just ignore all the media BS, and go out and vote.

Monday @ 12:53 new Quinnipiac FL Senate poll affirms CNN poll yesterday: Nelson (D) leads Scott (R) by six points

Florida is a bellwether.

Interesting: there's a new polling organization, St. Pete Polls, That has Scott +1 and Gillum +1. I'm a bit skeptical, since they appear to be a one-horse shop rather than an established polling firm with a reliable reputation. There is one bit of data in their poll, though, that is of some interest, and that is in how the early voting is going.

Governor (among those already voted):

Ron De Santis: 45.3%

Andrew Gillum: 51.4%

Senate (among those already voted):

Rick Scott: 46.7%

Bill Nelson: 52.3%

The "already voted" number was 27.2% of the total, 428 out of 1575. This is just one data point and not at all definitive but it does support the narrative that Democrats are more energized.

that caravan may look like taco trucks, but we know it's really halal they're hauling

R141, I'm still traumatized by Hillary's 10 point lead in early voting in Florida. I won't believe it until I see it announced on election night and then wait three days to make sure the news media doesn't change their fucking minds like they did with Gore.

And, I swear, if Latinos don't show up for this election, the Dems should just let the Repugs do whatever they want on immigration. Trying to do better is not doing anything for the Dems but it is bringing out the Repug voters. If the Dems said 'fuck it' and the Repugs ran roughshod over every brown person in the country, maybe that would work to finally help them figure out who is evil in this equation while simultaneously depressing the Repug vote because the fuckers will be getting what they want.

Are the lesbians here lusting after Kyrsten Sinema? I believe she dropped 25 pounds for the race and looks great. Angry Martha McSally on the other hand...

Local topic....... Kimberlein “Y&R Evil Nurse Sheila” Brown is running a repulsive Republican ad comparing her opponent to a dog, a lap dog. Dr. Raul Ruiz is a fine, honest man. I hope she gets a shellacking on Election Day.

R144, isn't Sinema bi? Lesbians don't lust after the bis. Burned too often. Hope she wins, though! She looks like she'd be a fun person to throw at that den of wrinkly, desiccated, old white men.

John Lewis @repjohnlewis:

I have been beaten, my skull fractured, and arrested more than forty times so that each and every person has the right to register and vote. Friends of my gave their lives. Do your part. Get out there and vote like you’ve never voted before. #vote #goodtrouble

R143 the Puerto Ricans are well known for not voting. That's why Hillary lost Florida.

Everyone says the PR are going make Florida go blue but it never happens.

People died so you could vote....don't fuck it up

More Republicans than Democrats early voting. UGH!

these are the murdered goodman, schwerner and chaney who died registering african americans to vote in philadelphia MS

in 1980, Reagan kicked off his presidential campaign a few miles away, as part of the "southern strategy" to recruit the former white racist democrats to the republican party, where they have triumphed.

From above article:

“Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.”

Which negates the headline and entire premise of the article.

I Just voted today in Tampa, Florida at around 12 noon today. Turn out wasn't that crowded but it was fairly steady; that might be a good thing because Tampa tends to be rather Republican these days so maybe the Deps just aren't voting yet.

Voted straight Dem ticket and it wasn't hard. Not voting for any Repukes. Hope Gillum and Nelson can pull it off!

GO VOTE!!!!

I thought Bob Butthorn was a democrat R153?

If Republicans keep Congress (both houses), then this country is done. Over. Our democracy is Dead. Our Constitution will be shredded. The Great American Experiment will have failed. Utterly. We will be a rogue nation on the world stage, and both civil war and world war will be very likely... worse, at the same time, which means we'll end up on the losing side.

This is literally the last gasp of our Democracy, our Country... of Truth, Justice, and The American Way. If we can't grab back a foot-hold this November, we're done. It's all over. Kaput.

We will slide in to fascism, future elections will all be so rigged -- if they happen at all -- that no Democrat will ever win again. We'll become more and more like North Korea or the Soviet Union, until our society collapses utterly.

This is not hyperbole.

[quote] This is not hyperbole.

Well, maybe just a little bit.

It's not really hyperbole, the repubs have set their goals on this for quite some time. They know in a just democracy they will not win elections anymore in the next years and decades. They just don't have the demographics anymore.

Sadly, I agree that it's not hyperbole. It will be a very scary time if the Democrats don't at least win the house. I think if voting was fair, this wouldn't be an issue.

They wrote Fred out in Season 8, I believe. Jackie dated Jim Varney in Season 9.

I'd personally take the late Jim Varney over that orange traitor any day of the week, r159.

R159, wrong thread...

I'd vote for Jim Varney's rotting corpse over Trump. Hell, I'd vote for Vern Troyer's tiny, pervy, rotting corpse over Trump.

I hope I win.

I've done everything I can do. I'm a college professor at UCF in Orlando, Florida, and I've been begging students to vote for months. Friends, family, colleagues, you name it; I've talked to them about how important is is to vote. My partner is an attorney and he has been advertising free restoration of civil rights for those who qualify. He's restored the rights of 22 people! I'm really proud of him for this. People who go to prison have to petition the courts to have their voting rights restored once they get out and many don't do it because even though you can do it on your own it's very complicated. You'd you have to pay a lawyer at least a grand, plus the filing fees, and most convicted felons don't have that kind of money.

My partner, several of his colleagues and mine have rented six vans and will be driving people to the polls to vote.

I'd say sixty-five to seventy percent of my students despise Trump, but will they vote? Will blacks, Latinos, gays?

I don't know what more I can do. But the truth is, even though I don't want to admit it to anyone, I already feel defeated. My faith in the Blue Waive has evaporated and I just don't recognize the people in this country anymore. I've been really depressed over this.

What kind of feedback do you get from the youngsters R164?

What is their problem - lethargy, too cool to vote, above it all, don't they trust the democrats anymore?

... and thank you so much for what you did and still will do in the next two weeks.

Love!

My latest worry. Talk me out of it DL.

The Repugs are talking up 'liberal mobs' because they know the midterms are fixed and that we will riot after all the obvious cheating and they are putting themselves in the position to say, "See...".

The evil is deep with these fuckers. Is it that deep?

R166 I think you are very correct, I think there won’t be any kind of massive “blue wave”, I think the rigging has been bought and confirmed.

Ok I heard Michael mcfaul on Terry gross. He said putin is strategic. He won't mess with 2018. Then trump can say, we don't need to worry about 2020 because 2018 was clean.

That's not to say people like kemp wont cheat.

It's pretty likely that a rigged election was thwarted once before, when Obama won 2012 and Rice went batshit crazy on live TV because he couldn't hide his surprise that the cheating didn't work.

I'd bet anything that it was voter turnout that saved us then, so hopefully it'll save us again.

But we definitely have to remain vigilant in 2020, too. And probably for the rest of our lives.

Sorry, Rove, not Rice.

[quote]Ok I heard Michael mcfaul on Terry gross. He said putin is strategic. He won't mess with 2018.

There's already been a Russian indicted for messing with 2018.

You're traumatized, r143, because you know Trump didn't really win Florida in 2016 any more than Bush II did in 2000.

The night of the election everyone, even Trumpsters, knew it. The media went to work with distractions and politicians went into hiding and within two weeks everyone forgot how obvious it was that Florida was stolen.

Are any of you volunteering to get out the vote? Canvassing, phone banking?

Yes, R173! I am volunteering to drive people to voting locations.

Dallas TV: early vote reaches presidential level turnout in Dallas County -

DAY 1 Total:

2018 - 57,080

Previous Midterms:

2010 - 14,820

2014 - 13,036

Presidential

2016 - 58,775

HOLY SMOKES, R175!

I'm just the messenger, and for the record I am a Democrat who voted straight Democratic in Florida yesterday so I have no agenda here, but MSNBC just had a report on about early voting and I didn't catch the percentages but they claimed that in 7 out of 8 states that are early voting so far, Republicans are substantially out early voting Democrats.

I know, it surprised me too. I only hope that Democrats are waiting to vote later for various reasons ( like work maybe?), and this is not an early warning sign that the Democrats will disappoint once again during a mid-term, because this time, that could be disastrous.

[quote]but MSNBC just had a report on about early voting and I didn't catch the percentages but they claimed that in 7 out of 8 states that are early voting so far, Republicans are substantially out early voting Democrats.

I just heard that too. I have your back.

Something is just not right here. I haven't gone bonkers yet! This makes no sense unless.... people have given up on the voting process long, long, ago.

We ( the anti-Trumpers, the normal people) are going to be in a world of hurt if we don't at least take back the House.

GO VOTE DEMOCRATS!!!!!!

"I am a democrat......but" = troll

always, Page 1 Lesson 1 from Vlad's Correspondence School of Trolling

Most states don’t identify voters by party so it’s questionable that anyone could know who’s voting early.

If they are measuring early absentee ballots, then Republicans tend to vote absentee more (older people) but again, who knows if that’s the case this time.

Early in person voting (which just started in most places) tends to favor Dems and the first numbers there have been strong in many states.

The Dems ought to be running against Mitch McConnell. Ignore Trump and run against McConnell. He's odious. Drill down and make Congress the issue in local races. How stupid ineffective and dishonest they are and how it affects voter's lives. Link voters' lives to Congressional action or inaction. I'd even tell them, "A lot of people like Trump. But that doesn't make people robots! You have friends you like but you don't agree with them on every single thing." These are Congressional races. Don't let Trump nationalize them. He keeps telling his base "I'm on the ballot" but he isn't.

Ignore the doomsayers, and VOTE.

[quote]but MSNBC just had a report on about early voting and I didn't catch the percentages but they claimed that in 7 out of 8 states that are early voting so far, Republicans are substantially out early voting Democrats.

That's almost always the case and it's not indicative of anything other than that Republicans tend to turn out earlier. The MSNBC report also noted that it wasn't indicative of anything for that very reason. The thing to keep an eye on is where is that turnout occurring and how does it compare to prior elections, both mid-term and Presidential. Any news report that doesn't contain that data should be ignored.

[quote]The MSNBC report also noted that it wasn't indicative of anything for that very reason.

Except that it gave me heart palpitations and a need for smelling salts.

R184 My elderly Republican relatives vote early to avoid lines or utilize absentee ballots to avoid lines altogether.

Older Republicans get out and VOTE.

C'mon Democrats, let's do this!

Oh, now that's interesting. The trolls are definitely out today. R184's mild bit of horse sense was immediately jumped on and F&Fed to the point where he got flagged as a troll. They really do want to be proclaiming gloom and doom and do not want anyone to inject a little reality into the discussion.

The black vote is now up for grabs, with Kanye, Diamond & Silk and other stars giving it up to Trump. We could be seeing a Black Wave in November.

Oh, please, R188. You'll need to try harder than that. If there's a Black Wave, it won't be for Trump or for Republicans.

Seriously: Diamond & Silk? Wow.... the trolls are desperate, aren't they?

[quote]Oh, now that's interesting. The trolls are definitely out today.

Apparently so, R187!!! I feel much better now especially since R188 posted what s/he did. Black people can't be bothered with Trump.

Momentum

A "Black Wave" for Trump, oh dear. I needed that laugh this morning. Man talk about desperation.

Black people had Trump's number a long, long time ago ( take that anyway you want); way before white people did. Most of them have dismissed him and the Republican party and don't even bother with them anymore.

White people could learn from black people.

Yesterday when I voted I was one of the youngest people there, and I'm 50, so maybe old Republicans do just vote earlier than Democrats.

I hope so.

F&F the troll at R188

The Dow is back down to what it was on Jan 1st. 2018 gains wiped out.

Yeah well I voted in Atlanta and there was a very long line and most of the people in line were under 40, and a lot of them were women. Very diverse group, too.

I just cannot believe how much money is being poured into this! Rachel did a report last night about how Republicans are trying to cheat, the lengths they are willing to go, and all of the money being spent. It's just mind blowing!!!

Trying to predict who is winning based on early voting is a fools errand. Early voting is up, all you can say is voters seem to be highly engaged with this midterm, which is good and as expected.

And you believe Rachel R199?

I sure do, R199. There have been those who have tried to come for her and they have failed. She is very intelligent, educated, quite factual, and always presents a compelling argument.

I posted this on the Treasons thread as well. The anti-Rohrabacher commercial I've seen is fairly effective, but this needs NOT to be forgotten.....

Republicans are desperate because they have nothing to run on. No accomplishments, no evidence that they know how to govern. So they're going all in on fear, George Soros, and the culture war.

[quote]“Prima donna athletes protesting our anthem. Left-wing mobs paid to riot in the streets. Billionaire George Soros bankrolls the resistance — and Dan Feehan,” a recent National Republican Congressional Committee ad intones. The spot accuses the Democratic candidate in an open Minnesota House seat of being beholden to Soros because he worked for a bipartisan national security think tank headed by a former top staffer of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), which received funding from Soros.

...

[quote]The pattern of ads shows Republicans’ intense interest in further polarizing the electorate, terrifying Republican base voters, and turning the 2018 midterms into a referendum on the culture war.

...

[quote]“The radical left created a media circus, dragging the whole country through the mud for political reasons. And Joe Donnelly is on their side,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee says in a recent spot before tying Donnelly to”paid protestors” and “outrageous lies.”

[quote]“Confront them where they eat. Where they sleep. Where they work. That’s the radical left. And Jon Tester’s with them,” a recent ad from Montana state Auditor Matt Rosendale’s (R) campaign says about Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).

[quote]Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-TN) Senate campaign says former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) “lured illegal immigrants to Tennessee.”

[quote]Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley charges that Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) “votes against your gun rights, against agriculture, and against conservative judges like Brett Kavanaugh,” while the Senate Leadership Fund accused her of voting for “amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants.”

[quote]The SLF also accuses Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) of supporting “sanctuary cities where illegal immigrants can be released on our streets — like this criminal, who was let go and then sexually assaulted a child.”

...

[quote]Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) attacks Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) for campaigning with Jane Fonda, while the SLF says Rosen “puts us all at risk” with her immigration votes. And a recent ad from Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) slams Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) for “supporting dangerous sanctuary city policies.”

...

[quote]The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ top super PAC, released a radio ad in 10 right-leaning House districts Friday that ties local candidates to “the liberal mob,” accusing them of “trying to hijack our democracy and steal seats on the United States Supreme Court.”

...

[quote]Rep. Claudia Tenney’s (R-NY) latest ad claims her Democratic foe stands for “attacking the second amendment, giving amnesty to illegal aliens, even impeaching President Trump.” The CLF has also attacked former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger, Rep. Dave Brat’s (R-VA) opponent, for working a year at a Saudi-backed Muslim school in the D.C. area dubbed “terror high.”

[quote]And that’s not to mention the nativist and misleading ads being run by indicted Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY) and Duncan D. Hunter (R-CA) as they try to hang on to their seats in deep red districts.

From NYT....

Another perspective on where things stand two weeks out.

Georgia peeps, how is the state flag story playing out so far (note there's no link b/c I don't want to spread it)?

[Quote]Republicans are desperate because they have nothing to run on. No accomplishments, no evidence that they know how to govern.

They have controlled the federal government for 2 years and all they have is their unpopular tax cuts for the rich.

and their failed attempts to kill the ACA that they now are embracing.

We've volunteered to drive rural Dem registered Coloradanz to the polls. Plus we're visiting the elderly to help them understand everything on the ballot.

Colorado is about to elect its first openly gay Governor, Dem Jared Polis.

I half expected being determined by the quiz to be a progressive activist (most liberal), but I wasn't certain because I want law and order (e.g., perfect administration of our borders and complete knowledge of who's in the country). Turns out I'm a progressive activist.

Nevada

This is what GA is talking about now.

Stuff like the linked article at R213 is why I don't like early voting. That kind of crap might have changed the minds of some people who already voted for him but it's too late. I also think the early voting gives the Repugs more of a chance to fuck with the actual ballots and vote totals, especially in states with Repug Secretaries of State.

If they win we're finished. We'll all have to wear special clothing that identify us, just like in the camps.

No matter what the outcome of this election is, we need to mobilize and start turning these Republicans out of local offices and I include governors, Secretaries of State and Attorneys General. Start looking at the state courts too. Judges. And the state legislatures. Start paying attention to ballot proposals that have anything to do with elections voting or funding for various things. If we want to defeat this evil we have to be as determined and dedicated ...and paranoid as they are.

This will be its own thread soon enough:

r217, Well that explains why so many of them vote for Trump and the Repukes.

Well it's great to cry as we type about the woes of the trans, and problems like manspreading and cultural appropriation, but...

"Our society, at the present time, seems to have sympathy for the misfit, the ne’er-do-well, the maladjusted, the criminal, the loser. It is time to stand up for the doer, the achiever, the one who sets out to do something and does it. The one who recognizes the problems and opportunities at hand, and deals with them, and is successful, and is not worrying about the failings of others. The one who is constantly looking for more to do. The one who carries the work of the world on his shoulders. The leader."

--Vince Lombardi

Sheldon Adelson alone has contributed $113MM to this election....

Anyone here from Adams County, Colorado?

[quote]Something doesn’t add up with Adams County’s TRAILER TRUCK FULL of lost ballots. @adamsclerk says truck was delivered to the USPS. The Postal Service says truck never entered mail facility. 60k lost ballots now found. How does a truck full of ballots get lost? #copolitics #9News

These are mail-in ballots that were never delivered to voters, not filled in ballots that never made it back to be counted.

R219, that's a recipe for a fascist state, moron. And, if you read between the lines, the last sentence of his screed would read, "The straight, white, male leader."

Y’all better mother fuckin’ vote.

Another thing " y'all" better do is turn off the fucking TV sets. I'm very suspicious of all the hype and coverage and hysteria being thrown at us in these final days. Shut of the noise. Vote Democratic. Nothing new is going to happen. If there's a natural disaster or a mass shooting we will hear about it. Watch a movie. Read a book. Binge on something. But stop watching the news and the smears fears and false accusations.

Trump is using fear and racism and he is lying constantly. So are the GOP. Why has no investigative reporter written a story about who is running the Midterm campaign operations and general strategy for the Republicans? Who is in charge of the themes, who is running the RNC. What's Trump's operation doing? Who's Frank Luntz working for? Where is Brad Parscale? Where is Bannon, Where are the former staffers from Cambridge Analytica? I want to know where the money is coming from. Adelson and the Kochs are the tip of the ice berg.

Vote early if you can, please. Make it easy on yourself, get it over with. Get a ballot before the polling stations are depleted; return it before Election Day. Tell your friends and coworkers to vote.

I don't think that's how it works, R225. In most states, you have to have filled out your request for an early mail-in ballot already. You can show up in person at the early voting stations but you can't just show up and pick up a mail-in ballot and I think most of the deadlines for that have passed. You can check your Secretary of State's website.

I think you can pick up an absentee ballot application still, but they have to mail the ballot out and then you send it back by snail mail. But the fact that they could run out of ballots is a real concern for those using paper ballots. I hate it that we do not have them. I had to vote on an electronic screen. TOuch screen. YOu stick a plastic card in a slot, the ballot comes on the screen and you touch the boxes for your candidates. No record at all. Georgia.

At least in Illinois when we use the touchscreen to vote you get to review a printout of your votes before finalizing them.

What's everyone doing election night?

Infuriating

[quote]What's everyone doing election night?

Probably having an anxiety attack and a heart attack at the same time.

I'll be eating tons of comfort food from Veggie Grill. Maybe watch at the A.bbey.

There are some excellent points and suggestions in this thread.

I hope that they don’t stop here and shared on your social media and sent to established media.

There budgets have been slashed and newsrooms have been shrunk so they need our help.

Sitting on the edge of my seat and chewing my nails. I’m going to neeed new floors because of all the pacing.

People need to wake up about voter suppression. I was in a Lyft with two black women and neither knew anything about it.

Don’t let these crooks forget that they fought against coverage for pre-existing conditions and wanted to keep insurance the huge scam that it was before the ACA.

Oh, and for no good reason.

They did it because Ayn Rand said it was bad in a forth-rate trash novel.

Another Lyft driver, a black guy in his 20s, had never heard of voter suppression and couldn't believe that some older black people don't have state IDs. So frustrating. We need celebs to call out voter suppression. Oprah, Beyonce, Kendrick? Someone?

I’ve been traveling the last couple of days and there are billboards everywhere telling people to vote. I mean everywhere. I’ve never seen anything like it in a midterm.

[quote]Sheldon Adelson alone has contributed $113MM to this election....

And he's a major Republican donor and Trump supporter.

And he owns the Venetian resort in Las Vegas, so if you stay at the Venetian, some of your money goes to Republicans.

These republicans are claiming that they supported pre-existing conditions which is a huge lie. Also, McSally actually lies and says she voted for Obamacare when she did not.

Where is the rest of the media on this bald faced lie????

Oh, and the crook running against Hidekamp is also claiming to support Obamacare when he clearly did not. He voted against it.

How could ND vote for the guy who was against preexisting conditions? That’s just evil.

Maybe we need to come up with a new term for voter suppression. It doesn't sound ominous enough to make the dolts pay attention. Or, honestly, maybe some of these people who don't think it's a big deal or don't know what it is just don't know what the word 'suppression' means. We have to start thinking about the lowest common denominator like the Repugs always do. We need three word phrases with lots of consonants and exclamation points or something.

The kids like the word cancel. And that’s why they are doing to registered voters. They are cancelling them.

NYTimes does a good job on this article. It’s not clickbait like the article above.

Full debate from Georgia.

Possible good news

SPOILER:

She eats his lunch. She completely destroyed him. The third guy finished him off.

No way he wins Georgia. Even with all the cheating.

It’s like 150 people. Big whoop. It’s all cheapo would pay for.

Suppression in NH.

Damn she really goes in on the secretary. I’m still in shock.

R248, really? That's awesome.

If we win I'm going to Disney's California Adventure.

The debate is worth a watch. It starts out with some production hijinks but Abrams does not blink and does not miss a beat. She is prepared and ready. She seems super intelligent and honest and the secretary seems totally shady and comes off as a typical politician saying whatever it takes to win.

Going down in flames at this point.:

Brian Kemp owes more than $800,000 in insider loans to bank he helped start

“... the Federal reserve sets strict requirements that loans be on the same terms a bank would give any other borrower. In short: no special terms or advantages.

So, we asked Brian Kemp's campaign staff to disclose the terms of his insider loans, to see if he was treated just like any other customer. They refused to share the information.”

R255, I fear it won't matter.

Not many people are discussing the gubernatorial races but Dems are on track to make major inroads. Governors will play a massive role in redistricting after the 2020 census. Republicans largely won most of the key states that determine the House and state legislature maps during the 2010 election, which is almost entirely why they have held control of the chamber all of this decade.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania (until the state Supreme Court intervened), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are gerrymandered to hell because of the GOP governors elected in all of those states in 2010. The only two states that Dems gerrymandered was Maryland and Illinois, though the latter was more of a dummymander and they could've maximized their House map more effectively.

Dems are on track to flip Illinois, Michigan, and New Mexico for sure. All those are open seats except Gov. Rauner in IL, who has been down double digits for a year now.

Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Maine and Iowa would be next on my list of most probable flips. Florida is an open seat and hasn't elected a Democrat for governor this century(!) Gov. Walker is in trouble in Wisconsin (I can't see a scenario where Sen. Tammy Baldwin romps to a win and Walker is re-elected; WI is too polarized for that IMO). Gov. Reynolds has trailed by low single digits in the most recent polls from last month in Iowa. Ohio is an open seat and DeWine (R) had the early advantage in the polls but Cordray looks like he's been making a comeback in recent polling. Again, I can't see a scenario where Sen. Brown wins Ohio by double digits and doesn't pull Cordray (D) across the finish line.

Nevada is the next tier of most likely to flip. This is also an open seat and is very tight. Attorney General Laxalt (R) is the antithesis of outgoing and popular Gov. Sandoval (R). While Sandoval has governed as a moderate, center right figure, Laxalt is well to his right. Sandoval hasn't made an endorsement in this race. This race could go either way but if the blue wave materializes, I can see Sisolak (D) wins. The margin between the governor race and senate race will be narrow. If Sen. Heller wins narrowly, there is room for Sisolak to also win narrowly and vice versa with Rep. Rosen (D) and Laxalt.

Georgia would be the fourth tier. Stacey Abrams (D) has done an excellent job of not bothering with unattainable conservative voters and is relying on getting minorities and white liberals registered and out to vote even as her opponent, Brian Kemp (R), tries to suppress the vote. I think this is going to a run-off which IMO would not be great news for Abrams. She needs to somehow win the 50%+1 outright to avoid the race being nationalized as a race by itself in December.

Kansas and Alaska the last tier. In KS, there are three major candidates running - Kobach (R), Kelly (D) and Independent Orman. Orman really needed to drop out of the race to make it more attainable but I think it's still flippable considering how unpopular Kobach is and how the failed right wing tax experiment has been in this state for most of this decade. I'd put this race as lean R because there is more than one anti-Kobach candidates running. Kelly will need to consolidate Orman's vote to pull ahead. He was selfish not to drop out as he has consistently been polling in at high single digits and has no realistic path to win. In Alaska, former Sen. Begich caught a break when AK's current governor Walker (D) decided to drop out of the race and endorse him. Begich is still popular in this state despite losing his Senate seat in 2014. This race was strong Republican because Begich and Walker were splitting the anti-GOP vote and it's suddenly much more competitive again. I'd still put it at lean Republican.

Altogether, Dems have a chance to net 11 governorships in less than two weeks. If I was a betting man I'd pencil them in at them netting 6 races. All the other races are within the margin of error and break Dem if that is how the exit polls and early results out east suggest a blue wave.

Altogether, Dems have a chance to net 11 governorships in less than two weeks. If I was a betting man I'd pencil them in at them netting 6 races minimum. All the other races are within the margin of error and if the exit polls and early results break Dem suggest a blue wave, they will win more than that**

I'm interested in seeing analysis on how the statehouses will break as well. Most of the pundits are rightly focusing on the House, Senate and gubernatorial races but the newly elected Dem governors will not have an uphill climb in enacting their agenda if they're still dominated by GOP state legislatures. Gavin Newsom in California has focused on this in recent months to lock down a filibuster proof Dem legislature but there hasn't been much talk about it elsewhere. Dems will surely flip dozens of seats but to what extent?

[quote]We need celebs to call out voter suppression. Oprah, Beyonce, Kendrick? Someone?

I agree and it's very disappointing they don't get involved. Pop music was a lot more socially conscious, now it's just blatant materialism, female objectification and bling bling. If Trump had been president in the 70s, young people would have stormed the White House.

You can't turn on the TV in Nevada, or even go to Youtube, without seeing an attack ad against Jacky Rosen. Someone is spending massive amounts of money to defeat her vs. Dean Heller. On the plus side, people seem interested in this election and motivated to vote.

[quote]Another Lyft driver, a black guy in his 20s, had never heard of voter suppression and couldn't believe that some older black people don't have state IDs. So frustrating. We need celebs to call out voter suppression. Oprah, Beyonce, Kendrick? Someone?

How about we invest in teachers who will educate our people?

What adult doesn't have a photo ID? That's something basic you need to get through life. It shouldn't be controversial to ask for that.

R261, Sheldon Adelson is certainly spending tons of money in his home state.

[quote]What adult doesn't have a photo ID? That's something basic you need to get through life. It shouldn't be controversial to ask for that.

You really don't know a lot about this country. Are you aware of how many people (to this very day) do not, nor never did they have, a birth certificate? In a lot of cases, only a notation in a Bible or the census confirms their existence.

R263, there are huge threads about this. Apparently some older people just don't have them, often because they weren't born in hospitals back then.

So that means they cannot obtain any kind of photo ID R265? I don't believe you.

Stop being so blatantly uninformed R267 and read up on it. Educate yourself, your ignorance is showing.

I follow that Jon Ralston out of Nevada. He's pretty good but I think leans Republican. He doesn't seem to like Adam Laxalt though.

I'm in favor of a national ID. Now, the paranoids who are afraid of EZ-Pass, etc. will scream, but it would cut down on a lot of problems if we had that. Problems like identity theft.

Don't you have to have ID to collect welfare benefits?

R267, there should be no impediments to voting, and therefore no photo ID requirement.

Here, R267.

I personally think everyone should absolutely have voter ID, and that we should have perfectly enforced borders (and deportation), but it's absolutely true that in some state people can't get photo IDs if they were born at home. Very old people.

There are several instances where Republican elected officials have openly admitted on tape that they want voter ID implemented to suppress the young/older/minority vote. There is no mystery surrounding it.

R267, here's the AARP, in case you don't believe the Washington Post.

R267

R267

AARP leans left.

R267

Meet AMAC -- the new alternative to AARP:

Bullshit, R278. The political arm of AARP is the most centrist group you can find out there.

R278, sorry, I can't seem to find Fox News articles talking about voter suppression via photo ID and the difficulty of poor older people have in getting them in certain states. Seems more conservative outlets don't cover it... Not sure what else would satisfy someone who doesn't believe the mainstream media, huge mainstream nonprofits representing older people, and university institutions studying the health of our democracy.

Forbes! Owned by the GOP-supporting Forbes family ... could still be liberal lies, however - who knows, right?

R267, you're right. There are no such thing as "true." Anything is however we see it, depending on our point of view. A isn't really A. Everyone has an agenda and the media lie. It's a conspiracy - pure propaganda.

Until Fox News covers it and says the same thing, it simply isn't true. Don't trust anyone else.

R281 maybe it's you who have something to learn. AMAC was created because AARP members were tired of their dues going to Democrat stuff.

It is the state legislatures that come up with the redistricting plan. The Governors usually appoint some commission to work with the legislature, and the state courts review and approve it. So state legislatures governors, secretaries of state, state attorneys general, and the state court system are all important.

R285, you write/speak like this "down home" conservative guy I have to listen to every morning on a conference call. He bitches about "libtards" and Hillary every morning lol. I think I've noticed you before on DL.

Are you in Idaho, by any chance? Just curious.

"State and federal officials say they are well prepared for the possibility of a cyberattack on American election systems Nov. 6, but experts warn that even a false claim of interference by foreign actors on Election Day could undermine the public's faith in the voting process."

REMEMBER: Tell everyone you know. EVERYONE: In 2009, when Barack Obama took office we had Democratic control of both houses of Congress. I will repeat that: THE DEMOCRATS CONTROLLED BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS IN 2010, before the mid terms. But we gave it away. We didn't show up. We didn't vote. So now we have this shit show. We actually gave away our majorities in time for legislative redistricting. 2010. WE gave it away. Not the Russians. Not the Republicans. We didn't show up. So next time some asshole tells you he may not vote because at the end of the day it doesn't matter, kick his ass and drag him to the polls. SHOW THE FUCK UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More information about AMAC for those who are interested:

Oh, and one more time, at the risk of being a broken record: Turn off the TV sets and the advertising, the counter charges, the smears, the lies the scare tactics. Turn it off. Just vote for the Democrat, even if it's a purple Martian with pink dots.

I think the AMAC booster is a member himself.

Right-wing media is always shilling for AMAC -- and portraying AARP as ultra-liberal.

No, I'm not even of age for retirement yet R292.

My point is why the need to form AMAC if the AARP is centrist, as that other person on here said?

[quote][R285], you write/speak like this "down home" conservative guy I have to listen to every morning on a conference call.

I found your posting quite interesting, R287. Just the other day I received a call from a work relationship who off-handedly said to me; ""Oh... just another good day. I'm having my coffee and watching "FOX & Friends..." This sort of struck me because it revealed to me the possibility of how many intelligent people (or so I thought) fill themselves with the FOX nonsense. And then I read this piece this morning;

"Campbell Soup disavows Soros conspiracy theory tweeted by VP"

People actually believe these conspiracies????

AMAC is so blatantly ultra right-wing that it's never really gotten anywhere, despite some rather extravagant claims about its membership. It has its competitors, as well, like the American Seniors Association and 60 Plus Association.

[quote]AMAC was created because AARP members were tired of their dues going to Democrat stuff.

Nope, AMAC was created because the AARP wasn't ultra-conservative enough.

R294, people form right-wing versions of centrist groups because they want to belong to groups that advocate right-wing policy positions — not centrist ones.

Why do people join the Alt Right, if there are Mitt Romney-type centrist Republicans? Because they want something different, something leaning further right.

AARP is centrist-left the way the Chamber of Commerce is centrist-right. Both are sufficiently centrist to be widely respected and taken seriously by mainstream establishment politicians.

Oh, this makes sense. Fucking hell.

This suspicious package thing is absurd. It's gone too far. My god.

Stay foucused. Start shaming all your SM friends who haven’t voted. Nobody wants to be the one loser on Election Day without a “I voted” sticker.

Have a party that day one only let people in who voted.

If you have a small busnesss, advertise a discount for that day for those with a sticker.

Put a link in your Grindr profiles to voter info.

Democratic Party: "We have nothing to fear but fear itself."

Trump: "I have nothing to offer but fear itself."

[quote]“At stake in this election is whether we continue the extraordinary prosperity that we’ve all achieved, or whether we let the radical Democrat mob take a giant wrecking ball and destroy our country and our economy,” Trump said at a rally in Houston on Monday night. He’s warning of Democratic “mob rule” and predicting a stock market crash if Democrats retake control on Capitol Hill.

New Gravis poll out in Florida:

Nelson +4 over Scott (49 to 45) and Gillum +5 over DeSantis (51 to 46).

Two new polls out in Montana:

MTN-MSU has Tester at +3 (46 to 43). MSU-Billings has Tester +9 (47 to 38).

On the downside, the latest poll in Indians (Indy Politics/Mason Strategies) has Braun +4 over Donnelly (47 to 43). This is a Republican pollster, though.

Jeff Bezos-Funded Super PAC Attacks Democrat

Volunteer with a campaign. Sign up to canvass or phonebank. Recruit your friends. Take off election day if you are able, and drive people to polls or other GOTV work.

These threatening package attacks are terrible. WTF is wrong with people?

[quote]Nelson +4 over Scott (49 to 45) and Gillum +5 over DeSantis (51 to 46).

BRING IT HOME, GUYS!!

13 days.

Deplorables: we will bomb you if you disagree with us.

True to form at his rally tonight Trump look absolutely NO responsibility for his divisive rhetoric possibly inciting the sender of the bombs that were sent only to prominent Democrats in the last couple days. Instead he blamed it on....wait for it....the MEDIA.

Never change Donny.

Today there was an assassination attempt on two former U.S. Presidents, yet Trump doesn't mention them by name, nor does he call them to offer support.

This is same Trump who refused to say a nice word about John McCain after he died. This is the same Trump who is head of the GOP

I'm glad that Trump is dragging down the whole GOP with him.

I can't believe Dino Rossi is at even odds in WA-08. I mean, I actually can, since I used to live in that district and know that the politics of much of it are closer to those of Idaho than Seattle. But if you search for "washed up party hack" in the dictionary you see this guy's picture.

Hopefully we pick up two seats in Washington--it would be great to knock off Jaime Herrera Beutler in WA-03. She's been untouchable in more favorable climates and this would be a golden opportunity to get rid of a Republican who has enough of a moderate sheen to win statewide in Washington (likely governor, I don't think she would win against either of the incumbent senators).

I'm not getting my hopes up over Cathy McMorris Rodgers going down, though I would literally scream and jump for joy if she lost. She's a partisan stooge who, as part of the GOP leadership, enables dangerous fools like Devin Nunes. And to my knowledge she's never taken a courageous vote in her life. The rub is that one should never, ever count on Spokane to do the right thing.

Nor did Dump call President Clinton, Secretary of State Clinton, President Obama to express concern or update them on the investigation.

NAACP: Georgia votes for Democrat Stacey Abrams are being changed to Republican Brian Kemp

Horrible, R317. Dear God it's like there's no democracy there. Stuffed ballot boxes, like Russia.

I think blockchain could help solve this someday.

Go to r/CaliforniaAction for Voting Resources, some voting resources are national.

I think the bombs will help drive Democrats to the polls and depress GOP turnout. This is going to be THE story from now until Election Day and I doubt the details that emerge will be very flattering to Trump supporters. Those that sit on the fence are going to be turned off by this.

The second Gillum/DeSantis debate happened tonight. Gillum may have delivered the kill shot.

“My grandmother used to say, a hit dog will holler and it hollered through this room. Mr. DeSantis has spoken, hey, first of all, he’s got neo-nazis helping him out in the state. He has spoken at racist conferences, he’s accepted a contribution, and would not return it, from someone who referred to the former President of the United States as a Muslim n-i-g-g-e-r. When asked to return that money, he said No! He’s using that money to now fund negative ads.”

“Now, I’m not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist. I’m simply saying the racists believe he’s a racist.”

r322, Good! at least that will be ONE racist Republican who won't win his race.

That line even left DeSantis speechless.

The person who did this is a right wing Trump lover, I'd bet my house on it. I don't care what the media is trying to say with their "both sides do it" bullshit, violent action like this is almost always done exclusively by the right against the left.

EVERY single person who has received a bomb to date is someone whom Trump has either bashed at one of his rallies, or on his Twitter, or it is someone who has spoken out against Trump at some point.

No coincidence.

"Everything Shows a GOP Resurgence Except for the Evidence"

[R313] I still cannot get my head around the fact the party of Trump is also the party of first choice for many Christian evangelicals and fundamentalists. Insane state of affairs.

That article says what many of us have been saying, the data indicates Dems are in a great position to take over the House r326. That hasn't changed, in spite of some people pretending like the data says. Anyway, at this point it is all about getting out the vote. Voting is underway in a ton of the country.

R327 not really. Most evangelists are racists, misogynists and homophobes who don't believe in science. It makes perfect sense

Evangelists are some of the biggest hypocrites around.

Evangelists are some of the biggest hypocrites around.

Oops for some reason it posted twice

Evangelicals are also extremely ignorant. I read about some evangelicals at a Christian college who couldn't believe ancient Greeks and Romans weren't Christians.

Ancient Romans were Christians starting in the later 3rd century. Just saying

[quote]Ancient Romans were Christians starting in the later 3rd century. Just saying

Whatever... They destroyed the Empire!

Early Voting According to NBC News:

ARIZONA 🔴44% 🔵33%

FLORIDA 🔴44% 🔵38%

GEORGIA 🔴52% 🔵43%

INDIANA 🔴51% 🔵38%

MONTANA 🔴48% 🔵29%

NEVADA 🔴38% 🔵45%

TENNESSEE 🔴63% 🔵30%

TEXAS 🔴53% 🔵43%

Without any context, those numbers don't mean shit. How do they compare to 2014? To 2016? Who are the independent voters voting for? How many of those are from early voting where you have to stand in line vs. from absentee ballots that are mailed in?

Context. Always look for the context. And if they don't provide it, ignore the numbers.

I work with Republicans. A woman I know at work, who is a Republican told me that, for the first time in her life she voted a straight Democratic Party ticket. Georgia. So maybe the people are telling the pollsters they're Republican, but they may not be voting Republican. Hard to tell without more information.

R336, Those numbers(from Oct. 22) are mostly from mail-in ballots, which always favor Republicans because older and military voters like to vote by mail.

OK, here’s a weird serious question:

Election Day is a fixed date - the first Tuesday of November. With “Early Voting” now becoming bigger and bigger, people can cast their ballot weeks before that date.

What happens if someone who votes early then DIES before Election Day? Is their vote still valid and, if so, isn’t this like letting dead people vote?

Follow the money: "House Republicans Dropping Big Money To Shore Up Seats Once Viewed As Safe"

[quote]The big-spending Republican groups focused on keeping the House are moving large sums into some unexpected districts in an effort to shore up seats and incumbents that looked safe for their party until just a few weeks ago.

[quote]The National Republican Congressional Committee made a last-minute $800,000 buy to back up Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) in a GOP-leaning seat on Thursday, while the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP’s main House super PAC, launched $500,000 worth of ads to try to save an open seat that runs from Tampa to Orlando, according to sources tracking the buys.

...

[quote]And they’re not the only recent major investments from GOP groups in recent days. The NRCC also recently dropped $1.4 million to shore up Rep. Karen Handel (R-GA), who famously won a hard-fought special election in early 2017 and had been viewed as fairly safe since then, and $600,000 apiece for Reps. Brian Mast (R-FL) and Ted Budd (R-NC). The CLF is now spending for Reps. Fred Upton (R-NY) and John Katko (R-NY) as well as to hold an open seat in Virginia, while a Trump-aligned super PAC has gone in big to shore up recently elected Rep. Troy Balderson (R-OH), who is being badly outspent by Democrat Danny O’Connor, who Balderson barely beat in August.

It depends on the state, R340. For example, here's an article about the early voting in Ohio from 2012 which claims that the vote does count.

And another article from South Dakota that says it does not count in that state. This article claims that those votes will count in California, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio, and West Virginia.

THANK YOU, R342/R343! Interesting stuff.

They usually never know when a Voter died after early voting

we get that they don't believe in science....what we don;t get is that they also don't seem to believe in christianity

re, upthread exchange on "evangelicals"

Oh... and, look who had an epiphany...

Caitlyn Jenner: 'I was wrong' about Trump being good for LGBT people. Caitlyn Jenner changes her mind on Trump: 'I cannot support anyone who is working against' the LGBTQ community

Best response;

Eugene Gu, MD Verified account @eugenegu

Caitlyn Jenner is like the anti-vaxxer who does all this damage and then cries when she gets measles, mumps, rubella, and multi-organ failure from disseminated chicken pox as an adult. 4:31 PM - 25 Oct 2018

[quote]What happens if someone who votes early then DIES before Election Day?

Same thing that happens if a candidate on the ballot DIES before Election Day.

Mitch McConnell promised his Republican billionaire donors that if the Republicans keep the senate, he will gut Social Security and Medicare. This was widely reported from Republican new sources. This is very bad news for all of us, even Registered Republicans. Seniors and Disabled Americans cannot survive without these programs, and it will crash the economy. The Republicans really are manufacturing an unequal economic depression and creating a Ayn Rand or Nazi-based Facist empire.

Fake Pip Bombs are nothing compared to the gutting of Social Security and Medicare. This will cause so much misery and death and create a neo-facist empire centered in the USA. This is FUCKING A NIGHTMARE.

VOTE ALL REPUBLICAN OUT OF OFFICE.!

Yes, even if you are a Registered Republican. Your Democratic Country needs you now. Honestly, you will be saving yourself too.

You all are voting Democratic down ballot, right?

Already did r350

IT tweets;

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Republicans are doing so well in early voting, and at the polls, and now this “Bomb” stuff happens and the momentum greatly slows - news not talking politics. Very unfortunate, what is going on. Republicans, go out and vote! 7:19 AM - 26 Oct 2018

"Bomb" stuff.....says the "President".

His stupidity never ends!

What an absolute buffoon and a disgrace. It really shows the depth s of hoe much he could give a shit about anyone in the US. It’s all about himself. What an awful beast he is.

Republicans concerned about Florida races are bringing in Trump and other members of the Trump administration in an effort to stave off defeat in the Senate and Governor races.

[quote]Trump is expected to visit the state at least twice, according to two people familiar with the plans. Visits from several Cabinet members are likely, as well. Presidential text messages are being sent to Floridians who still haven’t cast their absentee ballots. And discussions are underway about blanketing the state with robocalls from Trump.

[quote]On Thursday, Vice President Mike Pence and White House counselor Kellyanne Conway were in the state in support of gubernatorial hopeful Ron DeSantis and Senate candidate Rick Scott, both of whom are close to Trump. Later in the day, the president raised money for Republican House candidate Ross Spano, who's facing an unexpectedly tough challenge in what's been a reliably red district.

[quote]Behind the scenes, Trump aides have been in contact with top Florida Republicans on a near daily basis, and people close to the president concede that they are worried.

[quote]“It is both my hope and my expectation that the president will be in Florida so much between now and the election that Floridians will be hearing ‘Hail to the Chief' in their dreams,” said Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, a staunch Trump ally who’s been in touch with the president.

gaetz, the drunken lout who could not bother to show up and lend a hand in his own district that was hammered by Michael?

That fat fool?

North Carolina voters in the 2018 general election have topped 1 million, as of the 1:30 p.m. update. See below. Find your early voting sites and hours here: #ncga #ncpol

Go NC!

They have had it with the Handmaiden Assembly in Raleigh.

Why are the early voting numbers dominated by Repugs? Is it just that the old people all voted mail-in? Does that explain the discrepancy between polling and early voting numbers? This is all so familiar from 2016 that it's giving me palpitations. Is there any info out there that breaks out the mail-in from the in-person early voting numbers?

North Carolina always has huge early voting 🗳

What's maddening about the stories of early voting is that they never give enough context for you to figure out whether it's good news or bad news. For example, the linked story says that we're seeing turnout in North Carolina akin to a Presidential year, not a midterm election. Normally, that would be considered good for Democrats, since they have a much greater tendency to not vote in midterm elections.

[quote]During the presidential election two years ago, 410,000 North Carolinians had voted after four days of early voting — with 13 days of early voting remaining. This year, nearly 431,000 people have voted after five days of early voting and with 13 days of early voting remaining. That's according to an analysis by Democracy NC, a non-partisan group whose goal is to increase voter participation.

But wait, there's more:

[quote]The number of registered Republicans who have cast early votes is up by 44 percent compared with the 2014 midterm election, according to Democracy NC. Democrats have seen their numbers increase as well, but not by as much. There's been an increase of 26 percent in registered Democrats voting early compared to the same period in 2014, according to Democracy NC analysis. Nearly twice as many unaffiliated voters have cast early votes so far, compared to 2014.

So this is good news for Republicans, right? Except that they don't tell us how the early voting patterns in 2014 ended up once we got to election day. And if we're looking at numbers corresponding to 2016, shouldn't we compare early voting patterns for 2016? Maddeningly, they don't give us any of the information to put these raw numbers into context.

So all we can reasonably say is that early voting is up in North Carolina.

Kemp is not being ethical in recusing himself in election oversight while he's running for another elective office, this time as Governor. The current Governor, or some other method, needs legislative authority to re-assigned, at least temporarily, that aspect of the Secretary of State's job. It is a gross conflict of interest. Kemp deserves to lose.

^in NOT recusing himself....

R362 So far most early voting has been by mail, which GOP voters always do better at. In Person early voting is just starting in some states, and Dem voters prefer doing that

[quote]His stupidity never ends!

Stupidity is when he calls his wife Melanie.

His political tweets aren't stupidity. He knows very well what he's doing, and he'll continue to do it.

It's called propaganda, gaslighting, victim blaming, wah wah-ing, etc. But it's very conscious.

Another KKK MAGA Terrorist murders a group of innocent people in a Pittsburgh synagogue.

Just this week, Trump was proudly claiming he’s a “Nationalist” just as Hitler used to do.

I' m afraid of threats of violence or violence on election day. But if that happens I have a feeling our FBI is ready for it and will nip it in the bud. They have been actively breaking up White Supremacist groups in Oregon and California in recent weeks. I' not going to let these fuckers stop me from voting. Bastards. They are barely remaining within the law. I'm convinced that Trump is the distraction, the carnival barker, the side show. The reason there is very little condemnation or efforts to pressure him into dialing back his rhetoric, etc. is because those fuckers agree with him, they support that point of view and they all serve another master so to speak. Trump is the circus clown who keeps the base stoked up while McConnell and the rest keep moving forward on their plans. We have to vote in overwhelming numbers. And we need an army of lawyers and challengers at the ready on election day and the days following.

R369 here. I also want to point out that it is extremely miportant that the Anti Trump forces out here remain calm and orderly. They would love to provoke us and start something so that Trump could declare an emergency and call in the troops and establish martial law. He is already doing that at the border for some fake manufactured border crisis. No member of Congress from the majority party has the nerve or the desire to stop this abuse of power so they will not "finally do something. " forget it. They are all in it together. We have to be smart and determined.

Jeff Sessions Didn’t Want Alternatives To Census Citizenship Question: Official

Lara's theme....

"You see the president out everywhere, for a very good reason. Wherever the president goes, the poll numbers for the Republican House and Senate candidates are going through the roof. The Trump effect I think is very real, and I think people realize that. Everyone wants the president to come hold a rally in their state, in their area, and with very good reason," Lara Trump said.

^ Lara married into delusion.

California Action has Voting Resources, information and endorsements. Some are National.

Click the link, Research your VOTE.

Vote Democratic Down Ballot, both candidates and public policies.

Trump is really the dumb hitler or Mussolini.

But, this should really send shock waves throughout ever fiber of your being. What happens when the Republicans find the smart and strategic Hilter?

Our US Constitution tells us to check power and Anti-Democratic policies and impulses.

Vote for the Democratic Party.

We need all Americans to vote for the Democratic Party, both candidates and policies now. Yes, even if you are a Registered Republicans. We have to make sure that their are democratic people in these institutions (on both the state and national level, especially both chambers of the US Congress) that have to be the check and balanced against Trump, The Republican Party and their Fascist policies and violent tactics. Remember, we also have to check Theocratic arm of the Republican Party.

Georgia’s Kemp Purged 340,134 Voters, Falsely Asserting They Had Moved

If Republicans had anything to offer that the American People actually wanted, they wouldn't need to lie, cheat, steal, gerrymander, suppress voter turnout, manipulate votes, rig voting machines, and purge voter rolls.

But they don't, and they know it. Their policies are deeply unpopular, and they oppose almost every popular policy. So they have to resort to coercion, lies, and theft.

Georgia is on a whole different level here with the shady tactics.

It’s really unbelievable. I haven’t been watching any news lately but hopefully this is being covered.

I think it's going to be kind of funny when, after all this early voting, there are only three people in each state left to vote on election day. All the polling places will be empty. The reporters will have no one to talk to. And, still, two out of those three voters showing up on election day will have to cast provisional ballots because they're black.

For those of you in safe states with no competitive statewide/congressional districts near you and want to volunteer, most of the campaigns now have remote volunteering you can do, including phone and text banking. Please sign up and get involved if you can.

R378, did you see what they’re doing to Hispanic voters in Dodge City, Kansas? Unbelievable. Rachel reported on it the other night.

BUMP

Border Patrol union endorsed 3 Senate Democrats

Thanks, R381!!!! One of the most important posts in this thread!

Iowa's Sioux City Journal, which has endorsed Rep. Steve King in each of his last eight elections, has broken with tradition and announced its support for King's Democratic challenger, J.D. Scholten.

“In prior endorsements of King, an eight-term representative, we laid out what we respect and admire about our congressman,” the editorial board wrote. “In Scholten, however, King runs against an opponent with many strengths of his own.”

“Each time King immerses himself in controversy, he holds up this district to ridicule and marginalizes himself within the legislative body he serves, neither of which provides benefit to Iowans who live and work here,” they wrote.

I sent my absentee ballot to Ohio last week, bitches

Good for them, but what in the world did they ever find to respect and admire about Steve King? He's an avowed white nationalist who made his abhorrent opinions clear during an interview on MSNBC back in 2016.

But good for them I guess.

Democrats are going to clean up in every cat across the board and I bet they do better in the Senate than has been predicted.

Tell your Republican " friends" that while you understand that they may admire Trump, you know they aren't robots who will jump off a cliff with him, so they ought to vote Democratic this time to provide him with a check. Let him know he has to tone it down. Tell them Congress can't get rid of him without 67 votes in the Senate, and that will never happen. (wink, wink)

[quote]Good for them, but what in the world did they ever find to respect and admire about Steve King

I'm choosing to act like the father of the prodigal son this election cycle ... I'm just happy when people come to their senses, I'm not going to rub their noses in their previous misdeeds. (No matter how much they may deserve it.)

I have voted here in Arizona. Early voting. Now all I can do is wait until the 6th.

Ok MSNBC just did another "black people aren't Voting" story this time about Florida. Now I find it extremely hard to believe that black people aren't going to vote for a popular black guy as governor of Florida. One of my questions is how do we even know the race of the people who've voted so far. They certainly don't know who they voted for.

Ugh, all my Florida relatives voted early and Republican!

R395, time to sever ties with them and make sure they know exactly why.

[quote]I have voted here in Arizona. Early voting. Now all I can do is wait until the 6th.

Nope. You can make calls. Help others to get to the polls, etc.

But, thanks for voting!

I have plenty of elderly neighbors without cars who probably can use a ride to the polls on election day. The problem is they are Republicans. Should I offer them a ride or perhaps just set their houses on fire instead?

R398 Let me get you a book of matches.

It is funny when people scream "Vote! Vote! Vote!" There is an entire group of people who I wish would just stay home and not vote.

Yeah. I do kinda wish that the ignorant bigoted fearful cowards and morons would sit this one out, so the adults and sane people can save this country.

I wouldn't offer a ride to a Republican to the polling place if you paid me.

exactly, after my father in law had a stroke and couldn't drive, we refused to take him to the polls, knowing he would vote rethug

It will be shocking if black folks don't show up to vote in Florida for Gillum. Early in person voting just started, so we'll have to wait and see. Same goes for non-Cuban Latinos.

If all the polls show Gillum with a nice lead, and then the racist DeSantis wins, that will make Florida look like a racist cesspool.

538's latest forecast for the House:

Is 538 taking into account Republicans who are voting for Democrats?

Anti-Trump Republicans?

Probably not, R405, because there isn't a good way to reliably capture just how many people there are in that category. All that 538 can go by is what people tell these various pollsters about who they are likely to vote for. How many cross over will likely come out in the post-election exit polls.

For now, I'm assuming that the current polls are reasonably accurate and that Democrats are likely to take the House and Republicans likely to retain the Senate.

Sorry if this has been posted already....

Every election cycle there's concern trolling about black people not voting and in every election black people vote in really good numbers.

I had completely forgotten about that, R407. Thank you for bringing that up. And yes, please, to Democrats using this.

The writing on the wall for the election is pretty clear, so the media is just trying to drum up some excitement. It's like when they went on and on about the Republican enthusiasm surge after Kavanaugh. The polls didn't actually change that much.

Ignore them.

My 50-ish Trump neighbors here near Alpharetta, GA asked me the other day when we were outside, wht I thought of Stacey Abrams chances, and I told him Kemp had this in the bag. Stacey had no chance to win. It wasn't as close as the media made it seem. He smiled and said, "That's what I think too." I'm planting the seed.He's a bit of a drunk, so he might miss election day.

LOL. LOVE R411.

TROLL TROLL TROLL

[quote]It is funny when people scream "Vote! Vote! Vote!" There is an entire group of people who I wish would just stay home and not vote.

The stereotype (I'm not sure exactly the stats) is that Republicans pretty much always turn out for elections, especially midterms, while those who would vote Democrat are more likely to stay home. So more voting translates to more votes for the Dem side.

Older people (seniors) will vote. That doesn't mean they vote in their best interests.

It is the college age to around age 30 or so that don't show well for midterms. Their showing for Presidential elections may be a little better, but not impressive.

Then there are those who don't care, are not informed or interested in politics, or simply lack motivation unless they see some personal reward in it. It may be a waste of energy trying to encourage them. Many of them never registered anyway.

Focus on urging like-minded people to vote, i.e. friends, neighbors, and perhaps a relative or two.

older black folks vote. They understand how important it is. Especially the ladies.

The young ones - not so much but I hope that's changing

I just spent over an hour text banking for Florida Democrats and it was really fun. Most people were really receptive other than a few trolls here and there. Texting is the future of getting out the vote. I encourage you DLers to take a few hours off this board and doing it. I enjoyed it!

they know the price paid for the right to vote

I'm a neighborhood leader for the Democratic party in Oregon. I'm in charge of 104 voters, only 15 of which have bothered to vote so far. Our ballots were mailed out 11 days ago, and I know there are still 9 days to get them in. But I'm not all that encouraged with turnout so far on the Democratic side.

yea gods, I hope I'm wrong...

Disheartening that the Democrats have to be begged to vote with this madman in the WH.

Talked to my mom about Virgina 10 today. She and my dad are solid for Wexler and Dems down the line this election. They want something to check/balance against Trump.

One thing I find plays well is saying "Trump isn't a Republican. Romney is ac Republican. He'd be just fine. But Trump is tearing everything down."

[quote]Wexler

It's Wexton, but thank you for doing god's work. Wexton is going to win easily, probably by double digits. Barbie Comstock is the most endangered incumbent Republican up this year in the House. The margin she loses by will be a tell on how Democrats do nationwide IMO.

Yep, it’s absolutely mind boggling that you have to beg people to vote during the Trump era

R421 I agree that Comstock is way behind. But I expect some kind of surprise this week. She will go down fighting.

I gotta say I wasn't going to give money this year, but then after seeing how close it's getting, I decided to do $100 broken up into 4 donations of $25 each, and I went with all women: Heitkamp, Rosen, McCaskill, and Synema. Would be so great if we got 3 out of 4 of those.

I gave as much as I could because I want to believe that I have done all I can, win or (unthinkably) llllooosse.

Thank you for what you are doing [R416] and your encouraging comments.

R418, is there much Republican presence in Oregon? Without a national race on the ticket, I'm sure it's much harder to get people to vote for Democrats that are already a sure thing. Are any of the state races close?

Oregon, like Washington, is heavily Democratic in the cities; heavily Republican in the rural areas. The suburbs are a mixed bag. In both states, a Republican absolutely can get elected even though both states trend blue.

The prognosticators are laughably painting the Oregon governor race as a tossup or lean Dem. If a moderate lost last time around during the 2014 red wave it sure as hell ain’t happening this time.

Gov. Brown is family. Support her people.

R427 I live in Clackamas County, which went Democratic for the first time in forever with Obama in 2008 and 2018. But Oregon and local elected officials can easily skew Republican. It doesn’t help that the Republican running for State Representative sent out flyers that painted her to the left of our Democratic representative, even though she’s a solid Trumper. Her slick mailer didn’t have anything about her hailing the tax cuts, the wall, etc.

Republicans are crooks, the lot.

We win the Senate back then we pack the court. Pack it with non-binaries, Namibians, Nan Michiganwomyn. Anyone who represents OUR truth!

R432 is a troll. Block all trolls.

Based on anecdotal evidence, I have more confidence in the Seniors I know voting for the Democrats, than I do for them supporting Trump. The Trump supporters seem younger to me. I think people in the 40's and 50's are more likely Trumpers than the retiree gang. People over 65 do not like Trump as much as we assume they do. They want a President who is "Presidential." They don't think he is legitimate in the sense that he is not a Republican the way they think of Republicans. And many of the older ones do not like him being close to Putin. These are people raised during the Cold War who have it hardwired into their brains that Russia is evil.

R435 I'm thinking the same. As part of my neighborhood leader program, I not only have the voters names, addresses, their voting habits, etc, but also their ages. I know I live in a more rural area that's been established for a while (meaning no new housing starts, etc), so we're more likely to skew older. But the average age of adults in my area seems to be about 62. There're a few in their 20s, no 30s, a couple 40s and 50s, and then the rest seem to be 60 to 80. It's encouraging.

[quote]Oregon, like Washington, is heavily Democratic in the cities; heavily Republican in the rural areas.

Rural Americans are fucking destroying this country. They're selfish, backwards, pig-ignorant bigoted assholes that drag this country down with their votes.

R435. While I see seniors who are Trump supporters, agree, the ones in their 40s and 50s appear to be the more enthusiastic MAGA devotees. Most have little grasp of what the Cold War was about. They are the ones that think Trump will deliver them wonderful, new jobs at excellent pay and benefits. They are not comprehending reality.

Don't take anything for granted. VOTE!

RESIST!

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!!!!!

Wonder how many threads will be opened on Election Night? This one may already have reached 600 by then.

Pssst. The reason an area is described as "rural" is because it is sparsely populated compared to suburban and urban areas. It is remote from the more densely populated areas. This means there are more of us than there are of them. The difference is that proportionately speaking they show up to vote while we are more likely to not show up. Let's change that. If we vote, we win. It really is that simple.

Although there is one thing I am concerned about. Remember what happened to Al Franken? When Al won his Senate seat the election results were challenged and his opponent would not give up his seat. Al had to fight for a full fucking year before he was allowed to take his seat in the Senate. At the time this was looked at as something unique. But I believe challenging the election results will be part of the Republican strategy and where ever they can, they will try to block the duly elected Democrat from being seated. I believe they have something up their sleeves. They are not going to go quietly. This is not business as usual as in past election years.

Red Tsunami, clearly.

[quote]Democrats hold a lead over Republicans in battleground districts that will decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a new exhaustive national survey conducted by the Cook Political Report and LSU's Manship School of Mass Communication ... The poll shows Democrats lead Republicans 48 percent to 36 percent among registered voters in the 72 most competitive districts, as rated by the Cook Political Report.

I'm pretty pissed at Mika and Joe for making partisan attacks. As journalists they're supposed to be objective. It's they job.

Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho should not be separate states. There’s more bison than people.

And the bison are smarter.

and the bison are nicer, they only body slam you if you get too close and irritate them

President Trump's 2020 re-election campaign manager, unveiling a new television ad for the midterm contests, says next week's elections are about his agenda, not Mr. Trump himself. "The president's not on the ballot," Brad Parscale said in a "CBS This Morning" interview Monday. "This is about his agenda."

From the link at R444:

The poll also shows that President Trump is weighing down Republican prospects in the battle for the House. Nearly two-thirds of voters say that President Trump will be a factor in how they vote in the midterm elections, and in competitive districts far more of these voters said they are casting ballots to show opposition to the President (42 percent) than to show support for the President (23 percent).

I saw that, R449. Republicans are in genuine panic mode now. I even saw this morning some article being pushed by the right-wing media "hinting" at another presidential run by Hillary Clinton. I'd say that this is more than about the loss of the House.

BUT, we all MUST stay focused and not become distracted! VOTE! Get out the vote! Volunteer if possible!

Because the House isn't enough! I WANT THE SENATE TOO!!!!

They're even offering WONDERFUL suggestions now!!!!

BUT, stay focused!

"Christian TV host: If Dems win the midterms, they’ll ‘burn down churches and kill thousands of Christians’"

(this should make many work harder!)

CNBC's John Harwood:

new Gallup Poll shows Trump dropping a week before mid-term election

last week: 44% approve, 50% disapprove (-6)

this week: 40% approve, 54% disapprove (-14)

The various races for governor are just as important as the House races, as we might finally be able to do something about some of the most egregious gerrymandering. Lots of good info at the link.

National Republicans have to add a couple more House candidates to the endangered list of people who require extra support.

[quote]The National Republican Congressional Committee is dropping $600,000 to help Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) and just short of $100,000 to help keep a Charleston, S.C.-based seat currently held by Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) in their column, sources tracking the buys tell TPM.

What policies are on the ballot?

Pre-existing conditions?

Tarrifs?

Imminent war?

Hate and fear, R456, in a nutshell.

Specific issues will vary from state to state, R456. But the number one issue for Democratic candidates, in general, is health care.

“Policies” are not on the ballot. Candidates are. Vote for Democrats, in every race.

Ignore trolls.

So curious about WI-06, in which incumbent Glen Grothmann (R) is facing Dan Kohl, the nephew of former Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl. I'm originally from Wisconsin and the Kohl name (and family) is revered by many. There's been no polling, but the Reps are pouring money into it now. So curious if this is a sleeper flip opportunity.

I thought the seat was Green Bay, but I was incorrect--it's more Oshkosh and Sheboygan.

STAY FOCUSED!

" was at the polling place today voting for #Gillum and you know what? It was full of young people who are enthusiastic about not getting shot in school. #BringItHome #GillumForGovernor"

[quote]Oregon, like Washington, is heavily Democratic in the cities; heavily Republican in the rural areas.

Same thing with Nevada. Blue in the big cities of Reno and Las Vegas, deep red everywhere else. Result is purple; Hillary narrowly carried Nevada. There's a movement to "make Nevada red again." The tiny town I live in is solid Trump country.

Blue in the cities and red in the rural areas is true for most of America. "Red states" or "blue states" is usually about whether the concentrations of blue voters outweighs the rest of the state.

that's a Shane, r462. Nevada seems like a nice place to live.

But I guess repugs gotta Fuck up everything they touch.

[quote]Blue in the cities and red in the rural areas is true for most of America

exceptions being CT, MA, VT, MD which are blue everywhere,. OK and ID are red everywhere

true on the congressional level, but as the NYT precinct level map shows, blue oases of people surrounded by vast seas of red

This past week has been brutal for Trump and Republicans:

A new Los Angeles Times/USC poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by a whopping 17 points, 57% to 40% among likely voters. That's up from 13% the previous week.

God, I hope that holds up at the ballot box, R467, as that really is in the "tidal wave" category. I'm skeptical, though.

One note in Texas: the latest Quinnipiac poll has Cruz as +5, which is down 4 points from their prior poll. Don't take that too seriously just yet, though: the +9 in their former poll was a real outlier. All that's happened is that they're now back to where the rest of the polling field is.

Now if other polls also show similar movement, then yeah, that's great news.

Hmph! No one has asked. So, I will;

Does anyone feel that the tragic events of last week will have any affect upon the voting?

You betcha

Yup, R470, as will the immigrant caravan. The speculation I've seen is that most people have made up their minds, though, so don't expect huge shifts in opinions.

That said, there are a lot of these races close enough that even a 1% shift could make a difference.

Democrat Ben McAdams opens up 6 point lead on GOP incumbent Mia Love in UTAH's 4th district.

The blue wave is in UTAH!

if that's Brad Parscale with that red beard in the video clip R449, I think he should do a lot more TV. He needs to be on every program on every channel for the next week, beard and all. He is completely repulsive. Disgusting. The more exposure people like him and Bannon get the more they help the Democrats.

Nope r465 even in Maryland the rural areas are pretty darn red.

Tell you what. Trump is itching to do something with those troops. He loves that he can order the military to the borders. He is shitting himself with anticipation hoping he will get to order them to fire on this horde of evil immigrants. Can you imagine the visual if anything terrible happens? IF there is any violence ? Women and small children and the elderly? Dear god, I hope the immigrant caravan takes at least until November 10th to get anywhere near there. I don't want to see him massacring innocent kids and their mothers.

[quote]Does anyone feel that the tragic events of last week will have any affect upon the voting?

It demoralizes Republicans to an extent and may cause some to not vote. I remember how demoralized

I felt when Comey issued that letter reopening the Clinton investigation a week before the election. I was just about to walk out the door to vote early when the news hit and I almost didn't go vote because I felt so depressed and defeated. That's why Hillary blames the Comey letter for being the reason why she didn't win--it demoralized her supporters.

Republicans are going to get completely cremated.

DLers love a good troll and this Michigan Democrat has been showing up at Republican governor nominee Bill Schuette's Detroit headquarters for the past week only to find it's been completely abandoned.

Western Maryland is deep red

That guy at r479 is a genius.

Arizona polling has Dem ahead by 6 points! We will get a pick up there. Early voting looking good in Nevada too. We need ONE more!

Ignore all the polling. Just GOTV!!!

Don’t give up on the Senate. There is still a chance that dems tie or win.

We need to help Claire McCaskill. But how? Are there some Missouri blogs we could post in? She needs to hit Medicare, Social Security, Pre-existing conditions. HARD!

McCaskill will win if people turnout. It’s all about getting them to the polls in the final week. Every vote counts.

McCaskill also needs to hit Republican taxes and spending. Democrats never make an issue of that.

All Mc Caskill needs to do is show Mc Connell talking about ending Social Security and Medicare. then say,"I'm going to fight him." The other thing is that she's a breast v cancer survivor. McConnell and the GOP would deny coverage for her pre existing condition.

Two days I got called by the Monmouth Poll about my congressional district, NY 19. This morning the poll results came out--Delgado has a 5 point lead over the horrendous Faso..

First time I've ever been part of a major poll. Not that I ever doubted their reliability, but it did reassure me somewhat to be part of an honest poll for the first time... and one that of course ended up showing a lead for a good guy.

@SteveKornacki

The last week has been driven by Trump's response to the mail bombs and Pittsburgh, and now he's leaning into birthright citizenship. His Gallup approval has dropped 4 points and there are new discouraging polls for the GOP this AM. We'll see if this proves a bigger trend, but it's worth contrasting the tone Trump seems to be closing ’18 on with how he played the home stretch in 2016 – when (by his standards!) he presented a markedly calmer, more disciplined and reassuring public posture than at any other point in the campaign, and was rewarded.

Why does it always feel like Kornacki is rooting for the Republicans?

I can’t stand Kornacki!

r491, because he is.

I would marry Steve Kornacki in a heartbeat. And he was hyping that poll that has Sinema up 6 in Arizona all morning

Nothing could stop me from voting, but I have this horrible, horrible feeling that the fix is in, and the GOP will steal elections all across the nation to ensure they win. LOTS of reports of people's votes for Beto being changed to Cruz by machines in Texas as just one example. All the nonsense in Georgia with the voter roll purging and throwing out registrations... stories like this from nearly every red state.

Bring it home democrats aka patriots.

What did they do with soldiers like r495 in the war?

Show some bravery or get the hell off the field. It’s the last week and I will ff and block any pessimistic worry warts to oblivion. Starting with r495.

The repugs are finished. There will be 300 democrats in the house in case you haven’t been paying attention.

The senate is also going to be at least tied, if not turned blue. Remember, every election since 2016 revealed a 4-8% dem bump above the polls. It’s a turnout bump.

Onward democratic patriots!!!!

(rolling eyes at R497)

[quote]Trump says GOP candidate who has not held office was ‘really big help with tax cuts’--President Trump on Monday endorsed House candidate Denver Riggleman (R), saying he was a "big help" with tax cuts, even though Riggleman was not in Congress last year when Republicans passed their tax overhaul legislation.

Why people can't see through this guy is beyond me....

On another note, Andrew Gillum's line to DeSantis; "The racist think that you are a racist" is like the shot heard around the world! It seems that every television pundit is referring to it and starting to use it to refer to other candidates.

Our idiot in the WH on black voters...

"I mean, we have the best numbers we've ever had. And I sometimes jokingly say, 'It's going to be awfully tough to beat me in a debate when I have the best numbers ever produced,'" Trump said Monday. "So I think they should be worried -- they should be worried about the African-Americans because they're going to lose them."

Trump made the comments Monday night in an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, who asked him if his White House meeting with rapper Kanye West helped increase his poll numbers.

This is one of the reasons that we still have some red-state Democratic Senators. It's a great ad from Tester, highlighting health care in a very personal way.

I never knew Tester lost his two fingers. Maybe that's why Trump has a vendetta against him. His lack of two fingers grosses him out.

Even Republicans don't want to cut entitlements to bring down the debt.

[quote]Republicans have suggested that the US needs to cut entitlements — Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security — to get the deficit under control.

[quote]But most Americans would rather reverse the GOP tax law and raise revenue to deal with the deficit rather than make cuts, according to a new poll.

[quote]More Republicans, even, would rather reverse the tax cuts than make entitlement cuts.

This is why Republicans are running on nationalism and fear. Their policies are incredibly unpopular.

SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE ARE NOT ENTITLEMENTS!!!

Well, you’re entitled to them if you paid in.

Repeat this until people ask you to leave the room:

EARNED BENEFITS NOT ENTITLEMENTS

Republicans want to foster an atmosphere of divisiveness because its EASIER TO STEAL YOUR EARNED BENEFITS. They cut taxes as a feint to get you to look the other way.

That’s not what Republicans mean by calling them entitlements. The Democrats should refer to them as earned investments.

trump doubled down on Andrew Gillum during an interview on Fox yesterday and called him a "stone cold thief" and again said that Tallahassee is one of the most corrupt cities in the country. Gillum got off a great tweet.

Andrew Gillum ‏ Verified account

@AndrewGillum Follow Follow @AndrewGillum More

Governor candidate, FL I heard @realDonaldTrump ran home to @FoxNews to lie about me. But as my grandmother told me — never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty, but the pig likes it. So ignore him and vote, Florida!

8:18 PM - 29 Oct 2018

Gillum has a very wise grandmother.

Any Democrat who calls trump a dirty pig in public gets my vote, R508. More Democrats should realize that punching back in response is a good strategy.

The Social Security Act of 1935 created the programs known as RSDI.

Retirement, Survivors and Disability INSURANCE.

SSRI, Social Security Retirement Insurance also known as regular Social Security

SSSI, Social Security Survivors Insurance, the one that pays for surviving widows and children till they are 18.

SSDI Social Security Disability Insurance, the one that is difficult to be approved for.

Ther IS one ENTITLEMENT program: Supplemental Security Income, SSI, NOT TO CONFUSED WITH ANY OF THE INSURANCE PROGRAMS.

SSI is FEDERAL WELFARE. It is for Disabled people with no income at any age. It is usually the precursor to any state Medicaid.

So, when a Republican starts talking about ENTITLEMENTS redirect them to a discussion about SSI.

Are they going to get rid of SSI or reduce the SSI payments because everything else is an INSURANCE BENEFIT!

Lets get rid of farmers welfare.

US Elections Project:

Today, VA becomes the 10th state to surpass their *total* 2014 early vote.

So far, at least 21 million people have voted in the 2018 general election.

Thanks, R513. For those interested in following along on early voting numbers, their Twitter feed always has the latest info.

You can also go to their website and view or download the data directly.

FUCK YEAH!!!

thanks for posting that good news, r513.

Let's hope the rest of the country wakes the hell up and cunt punts the GOP into oblivion.

On November 6 our long national nightmare is over!

I’m looking forward to OP’s attacking rival threads as the election nears, shouting “We already have an OFFICIAL thread.”

I'm tentatively looking forward to my new anxieties after November 6th where I get to worry what evil the lame duck Repug Congress will do. Come on, new anxieties!!!

I can't believe they have Frank Bruni and Ross Douthat writing a joint column now. Bruin is so intellectually outclassed by Douthat.

R449 - That guy looks like a disenfranchised Russian novelist. Is his name Fyodor or Sergei?

If that’s true in VA, then it’s going to be a total wipeout for repugs.

Not necessarily, R522. Right now, in most of these locations, a small majority of those early voters are Republican. We need a deeper drilldown on the data before we can safely say which side benefits. In general, a higher election turnout favors Democrats but it's a mixed bag when it comes to the early turnout.

Beto fans, he's on MSNBC right now in a town hall with Chris Matthews.

Damn, the way the students greeted him. This man is a Rock Star.

Trump’s got a vendetta against Tester, R502, because even missing two fingers, Tester’s hands are still bigger than Trump’s.

Coincidentally, Kanye (read: his agent, management, Kris Jenner, Kim, take your pick ) has just tweeted a series of "sensible" tweets:

I support creating jobs and opportunities for people who need them the most, I support prison reform, I support common-sense gun laws that will make our world safer.

I support those who risk their lives to serve and protect us and I support holding people who misuse their power accountable.

I believe in love and compassion for people seeking asylum and parents who are fighting to protect their children from violence and war.

My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in. I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!

46 year old Beto has the energy of a man half his age.

Poor Kanye. He's back on his meds is all.

Question about mail-in voting. I was just checking when the Illinois deadline is because that's how my dad has to vote and he hasn't mailed it in yet. It says you can ail it in postmarked no later than election day and it has to be received no later then 14 days after the election. So, basically, are the mail-ins never actually counted? Fourteen days seems ridiculous. Hell, the politicians are probably moving their furniture in by that time. This probably wasn't a big deal when no many people voted that way but it seems like enough are doing it now that it could end up deciding elections.

So, what's actually totaled and confirmed on election night? Do they even bother with the mail-ins?

Miss Lindzey is traveling the country campaigning for Republican candidates, spitting fire and cussing up storms. The Democratic opposition to Kavanaugh has her 'pissed'.

WTF!

She needs to let that go already, her side fucking won.

They're counted, R529, but unless the race is really close, those last ballots won't matter. When it is that close, yeah, the counting can go on for a couple of weeks.

Korbaki says democrats could win as many as 70 seats next week.

Woo hoo!

[quote]Korbaki says democrats could win as many as 70 seats next week. Woo hoo!

Stay focused! Continue to work and get out the vote for Democrats.

Well actually he said 50 (but I counted 70)

He also said repugs could win by 5 seats so every vote will count.

Always act like we're one vote behind.

R532, so it's kind of a rolling count? I assume they aren't allowed to start counting until election day, so is there someone sitting somewhere just tallying mail-ins with a machine and any that are received by election day are counted that day and put in the total. The rest are held and not counted unless the election is close or are they counted no matter what?

Anyone from Oregon? They have all mail-in voting. Does anyone from there know if they just hold all the ballots in some office and then start counting on election day or something like that? I know you can check whether your ballot was received but can you see who it was counted for? Like, Joe Q's vote was received and they were tabulated for so and so.

I guess the mail-in voting thing, now that it's really starting to take off with people, has me worried because it seems like it would be just as easy, if not easier, to cheat because it's all done out of sight. That would be different if they actually showed you who your votes were counted for but I would think that would go against the privacy laws.

In my state, if there are not enough absentee ballots to make a difference, they don’t count them. They only count them when they could affect the result. That’s fine, though. It really doesn’t matter whose votes put a candidate over the top.

Usually, all ballots are counted, other than provisional ballots, and the race is not officially certified until that happens. However, the news media can, and usually do, call a race well before that certification, based on the numbers tabulated thus far. Here in Washington, I can verify that my ballot was received, which I've done, but that website does not show who I voted for.

It's not really easier to cheat. You're assuming that the parties don't monitor those vote counts or that just a single individual handles it all. You'd have to have one hell of a conspiracy to cheat, just as you would using other means. If anything, it's safer than using the electronic voting machines, as it's harder to hack.

By the way, in Washington State, anyone can observe ballot processing by contacting their county elections department.

A lot of republicans are voting democrat. I’ve seen this in reports but also in real life.

There will be block parties in every neighborhood if the dems pull this off. I’m talking dancing in the street.

There's a scene at the very end of Finding Nemo where the aquarium residents have made their escape by rolling themselves into the ocean after they are placed in baggies while the dentist is cleaning their tank. After they drop into the ocean they are floating there, still in their baggies, and one of them says, "Now what?"

We need to make sure that we, the Democrats, aren't like those fish in a baggie if that blue wave actually hits next week. I hope we have great plans in place once we get there. Beyond checking Trump's evil, do you think we do? The presidential race for 2020 starts on November 7th. Are we ready?

Sanders 2020! He's in the race as a Dem!

Oh, sure, R544. You sound real.

R543 Nancy and Chuck need to resign their leadership.

Sanders was never a Dem. A charlatan, yes.

Sorry, R546, I don't buy into the Repug attacks on Pelosi. She gets shit done and that's why they hate her. Schumer has been pretty useless, though. Don't know why he's been so ball-less. He's safe where he is in New York, so he should push it more. I'd be good with Durbin taking over in the Senate.

R548 Nancy needs to go because the Democrats will not and do not defend her. Ocasio-Cortez, Beto, Lamb, will not vote for her.

Like they’ll be voting for Kevin McCarthy - who’s almost as smart as a golden retriever

Oprah's going to Georgia this week to campaign for Stacey Abrams for governor -- that can't hurt!

Turnout is everything and every article you read about voter apathy and voter suppression is, in part, designed to convince you not to bother and not to vote. DONT FALL FOR IT VOTE

I hope the Democrat running for Secretary of State in Georgia wins. I love his commercials. He's a former member of Congress, a fiscal conservative with a great record and he talks about all of that first then says, "Yeah, I'm a Democrat...but I won't bite you!" It's a very folksy commercial. I hope it works. Because we need a responsible Secretary of State in Georgia to fix our elections process. I think he will be good.

Sanders IS is officially in the race now bitches.

Momentum! Donate, Volunteer, Vote!

“First Read: “In the past week or so of the 2018 campaign, something definitely happened — in favor of the Democrats and at the expense of Republicans.”

“We saw it in the weekly Gallup poll, which had President Trump’s approval rating down 4 points to 40 percent; we saw it in our NBC/Marist poll of Arizona, where Democrats are doing as well on the ballot test with likely voters as registered voters, suggesting enthusiasm is on their side; and we saw it in the New York Times Upshot/Siena and Monmouth polls of key House races, which have Democrats ahead or in strong position to upset GOP incumbents.”

r29 you need to contact your county's Elections/Voter Registration Office and ask them how it works. please let us know what you find out. just look up the name of your county and The Elections/Voter Registration Office

Iowa...

A poll released Tuesday showed King with just a 1-point lead in the race over Democract JD Scholten.

The Cook Political Report also moved the race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," indicating the nonpartisan handicapper believes the race is tightening.

It would be a dream come true if Steve King could be knocked out in this election.

White supremacist piece of shit.

I have a dream. And in my dream, Ted Cruz is history. Gone. Steve King is gone Paul Ryan's seat is taken by a Republican. Arizona, Nevada, and Missouri go to the Dems, and Every other Democrat running for the Senate wins!!!!! YES! We can do this. Even if we don't succeed we have to try. The only way this happens is if we overwhelm them with turnout. We have to make sure they see the outrage. We have to make sure the margins a re wide enough that they can't win with fraud. They may contest the results. They may try to block the seating of winners. They will not succeed. OVERWHELM Them. BE relentless.

President Trump's plan to end birthright citizenship has tossed a grenade into the final stretch of the midterm elections, roiling centrist Republicans and further endangering a House majority already at risk of slipping away.

So, we know this isn't Trump per se, R560. Who is it? Steve Bannon and/or Stephen Miller? Or , is it the Robert Mercer family?

Any Hispanic who votes for Republicans now has a lot of splainin to do.

It's Miler more than likely. Although it could be Bannon. Might even be Hannity. I suspect it's likely someone like Hannity who doesn't understand the Law or the Constitution. Trump claims his General Counsel says it can be done. Right. Any General Counsel that stupid deserves to work for Trump. May he continue to be as ineffective as possible. Did they replace McGahn yet? I heard he left. I hope so. He's a dangerous despicable piece of shit.

I'm convinced it's part of the Sean Hannity shit show. He would encourage Trump to go for the ratings grabber, not understanding it won't fly. The whole caravan thing is not working either. I hope we hand Trump his ass on Election day.

They're saying on CNN that Trump is planning a last ditch blitz of eight states over the next few days. That's a pretty rough schedule for someone who is not physically fit, and is an over weight 70 yrs old.......just sayuin'

And who "works" only three hours a day, r566.

Polls show Senate races tightening up in Nevada in Arizona, yet the Democrat is leading the Republican in Arizona by 5 points.

WTF???

I haven't read all of this thread so forgive me if someone has already answered this question: How are the Democrats doing with early voting?

[quote]I haven't read all of this thread so forgive me if someone has already answered this question: How are the Democrats doing with early voting?

You are NOT forgiven,R570! Why have the opportunity to post 600 entries when you have the lazy that won't even take the time to even do a cursory scan? Do you realize how much real efforts re time and thoughts go into these postings? How dismissive of you to just callously and flippantly not read another's thoughts, opinions, or appreciate their efforts--ESPECIALLY with such a topic like this!

DO BETTER!!!

WHAT'S THE NYTIMES' TOP STORY RIGHT NOW????

Guess!!!

... No, it's not about Trump being a Nazi — it's about how a "dark money" PAC has been oh-so-nefariously spreading money to Democratic candidates. No, I won't include a link because it's not worth spreading.

"How a Democratic Dark-Money Group Flooded the 2018 House Map"

DARK. FLOODED.... SCARY!!!!!

Because that's the TOP story about this election. Not GOP dark money, not GOP voter suppression, not violent attacks Trump is causing with his insane rhetoric.

The Times is monument to neurotic and self-destructive whataboutism. They want a free press. See what happens if the GOP continues to control all levers of government.

Best friends.

That LA Times poll showing Dems with a 17-point lead in the generic ballot shouldn't be ignored. They were the only pollsters who consistently showed Trump with a lead throughout 2016, when other polls showed Hillary ahead. Everybody laughed at them because they used an innovative new polling method. Their method allows them to gauge changing sentiment from a fixed panel of voters.

R574 But their poll was wrong because Hillary did get more votes. You are conflating the electoral college (which can't really be polled) with the popular vote

And I have to say that the 17-point lead is such an outlier, and not yet confirmed by the early voting, that I think it reasonable to disregard it until and unless we have confirmation from another pollster. That Democrats are leading in the generic polling is undisputable. How that converts to actual votes, we'll see next week.

Anyone want to make a part two. The other 2018 thread is a prediction thread and I do t like it.

This one needs a part two.

It's even worse than that, R572, because the amount of money they're talking about in that "dark money" campaign is about $30 million, going back to 2017.

[quote]At the center of the effort is an opaquely named Democratic organization, the Hub Project, which is on track to spend nearly $30 million since 2017 pressuring members of Congress in their districts.

That is such a tiny drop in the bucket of campaign spending that it's laughable that it got this kind of attention. It's like someone turning their back on Niagara Falls to focus on this tiny little rivulet miles away.

Sure, R577, but we might as well finish up this one first.

It's almost as if the NY Times has a personality disorder. They lull you into thinking they are on your side, and right when it counts - they print some damn critical piece on our side. I hate them. It's Lucy and the football.

It might have been a legitimate story if they were doing something incredibly shady like, oh, I don't know, trying to block people from voting. Or running these incredibly sleazy and dishonest advertisements, but as far as I can tell from the NY Times story, no such activity took place. What they were doing seemed like fairly reasonable politics: talking about taxes and health care. This was about as nothingburger a story as you could possibly get: nothing illegal, nothing sleazy, and only a relatively tiny amount of spending.

Now if only the NY Times would devote even one-tenth of this effort to talking about the various issues and how they will actually impact the voters....

Hit piece on Gillum today in the Times, too.

I was looking at Real Clear Politics and they're putting Connecticut and Vermont in the toss up column as far as governors go. I found that surprising. I always thought they were either Dem or Indie. I hope we can flip Wisconsin and beat the crap out of Scott Walker, and Michigan is going to go Dem. There a re 36 Governor's seats up and the Democrats need to start taking them back. If we aren't careful the Republicans will control enough state legislatures to start approving Constitutional amendments for all kinds of dangerous shit. (It takes 38 states.)

State legislatures are critical.

Georgia and Ohio governors' races.

[quote]they're putting Connecticut and Vermont in the toss up column as far as governors go

A dullard and a tranny. Bad candidate selection.

Well, CNN's numbers guy was on and he is predicting the Republicans will end up with 52 seats (a gain) in the Senate. The Democrats will take the House with a gain of 30 seats. (They need 23.) He was looking at the Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, North Dakota, and Texas and things don't look good for the Dems in any of those states. Then there's Missouri and Florida and we need to beat Scott and save Bill Nelson in Florida and we need to save Claire McCaskill.

New England states regularly elect GOP governors. We have had GOP governors most of my life (I'm in CT).

That being said I think the race is lean Dem at least. Stefanowski never led in even one poll. While Lamont is well liked by both wings of the CT dem party. The well to do old money liberals, which is is one of, and the grassroots, for primarying that piece of shit Lieberman.

NYC has had Republican Mayors. Just depends on whether you are socially progressive, fiscal conservative, with an emphasis on crime control, or a character from The Handmaid's Tale.

stefanowski is an idiot for going all trump lite in ct. after the unpopular malloy, a moderate repug like the ones in MA and MD could have probably won easily

Serial vote suppressor Brian Kemp will not show up for what was to be his final debate with Stacey Abrams. He's going to attend a rally with Trump instead.

R589 = Jared and Ivanka

Closing point sites.

#INSen: Donnelly (D) 45 (+3) Braun (R) 42 Brenton (L) 7

head-to-head: Donnelly (D) 48 (+2) Braun (R) 46

New NBC/Marist poll

The Liberation in Montana just bowed out and said to vote for the Republican. Tester (D) is up 4 points before the announcement.

*Libertarian

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