New Quinnipiac poll: Trump approval rating drops to 38%

While I always appreciate you Poll Troll, Trump's approval rating has remained pretty shitty but stable for weeks if you look at the aggregate numbers. As Nate Silver always says, the signal, not the noise.

Half Of U.S. Voters Say Russians Have Something On Trump

[quote]"Whether it is with love or not, President Donald Trump's relationship with Russia has delivered a small blow to his already poor standing with the American people," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

[quote]"Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump's job approval is back below 40 percent again.

r1 Still, it's useful as a short-term morale boost. Because that approval bump after Russia almost made me go insane with desperation.

it will skyrocket upon news of the billions of dollars in aid he is giving farmers to blunt the impact of tariffs.

R1, yes, of course we always have to look at the aggregate numbers.

Although from what I can tell, 538 has not added the new Quinnipiac poll to their aggregate yet.

Looking at Gallup, back in their daily poll days, Trump's numbers went from 45% to 41% approval. When they switched to weekly polls a year ago, Trump's numbers went from 45% to 41% today.

His support never changes. The only way to take back the government is to get more Democrats at the polls.

That money will almost entirely go to agribusiness, r4, not farmers.

What's important about the new Quinnipiac poll is not just the Trump approval numbers, but also the polling questions they conducted on other topics such as Russia and the Mueller investigation.

For example:

[quote]American voters believe 51 - 35 percent "that the Russian government has compromising information about President Trump"

[quote]Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into possible collusion, voters say 55 - 31 percent.

This is the first poll I actually believe; But his numbers are all over the place. His supporters are die- hard zealots who will hang-on to the bitter end while Rome is burning.

I don't believe 38% approve of him. Deplorables lie lie lie. They will never admit they were bamboozled. So they will say they still approve but they don't. (I said this in another thread but it needs to be repeated)

Also, if Obama or Hillary imposed tariffs that hurt farmers and then said they'd give them billions to offset the pain, they would scream-"I DON'T WANT WELFARE. I WANT TO MAKE A LIVING!"

Other important numbers from the new Quinnipiac poll:

-> support for the Mueller probe at the highest level since March

-> Trump job approval at only 32% among independents

Update from Nate Silver:

[quote]The 538 average shows a bit of movement against Trump in the past few weeks. Certainly not *much* movement, but a bit. His net approval rating today is the worst it's been since 4/30.

[quote]It's in the zone where it could just be noise, but also in the zone where it could be real and his approval rating has regressed to 40% within a couple weeks. That's not super helpful, I know. But there haven't been a lot of high-quality polls, post-Helsinki.

Presidential approval typically falls along intense party lines. What's unique about "Trump supporters stay loyal" is how much the number of people IDing as Republicans has shrunk.

Average from Real Clear Politics…

Rasmussen has Trump at 46% Approval, which is helping his average.

Quinnipiac is a pretty reliable poll which is why it's worth flagging it. The aggregate is slowly going down.

What continues to stun me about Trump are his disapproval ratings. Presidents usually have the approval rating, then the buffer percentage between approve and disapprove, then they have the disapproval rating.

Only very, very rarely does a president have a hard disapproval rating of more than 50%. Trump has never had anything but.

Yes, Quinnipiac is considered a high-quality pollster, which is why I'm giving it a lot of attention.

As Nate Silver said, there hasn't been a lot of high-quality polling since Helsinki, so this one is worth examining.

Here are more stats from that poll: ‏

@JohnJHarwood

Quinnipiac Poll: -51% say Trump has weakened US as leader of free world -53% say he wants what's best for himself, not the US -55% say Mueller probe is fair -51% say Russians have compromising info on Trump -73% say Russia succeeded in Helsinki -27% say US succeeded in Helsinki ‏

R16, the other factor about Trump which is unusual is that although he has high disapproval numbers, he has a higher than usual level of support from his own base.

So although there is a strong anti-Trump vote preparing to show up in November for the Midterms, there is a corresponding strong Republican base that wants to protect Trump.

Trump's strong base numbers help mitigate some of the damage he sustains from his bad overall approval numbers.

NPR has done a few pieces analyzing this phenomenon. I'll post one of them here for those who are interested to read more:

You heard it here first:

Quinnipiac is going to drop its entire polling business. The college is in some financial trouble and the polling has run into too many adversaries on the Q. board.

Will be announced later this year.

Sure, R19, but the hatred for him is so strong. Trumpism acknowledges no neutrality - only love or hatred. And although 38-42% of the country may love him about 48-52% hate him. And he will have trouble closing that gap because there are no neutrals left. And if this all holds true, 2018 and 2020 will be bad for him.

Bombshells of information and drip.. drip.. drip... that's exactly how this works.

Most rank and file Republicans supported Nixon when he was going to be impeached and convicted. The majority still supported him the day he left office.

Things are moving along even with dicks controlling the House and Senate.

fascinating historical graph of support within party

of course the Republican party is a smaller percentage of the population now, and shrinking daily

[quote]the hatred for him is so strong.

Yes, R21.

The Democrats have an advantage in projected enthusiasm & turnout for November right now by about 5 points.

But ordinarily it would be even higher than that because of the President's high disapproval numbers.

As the NPR piece points out, Trump's base is helping him mitigate some of the losses.

His base isn't large enough to offset how energetically he is hated.

The Democrats need to push, push, push the message that Trump's $12 billion farmer welfare program will cost each US household $95. I used to be very active in Democratic politics and, believe me, that's exactly the sort of thing that will get both pissed off Democrats and Independents to the polls. And it may even keep some pissed off Pubs home too.

R26 Oh it is already pissing off so many. People are starting to turn against him.