2018 Midterms - Best Results?

They’re not taking back the Senate anyway, so you’ll get your wish.

They'll make gains in the House but not enough to get a majority.

Oh they’re definitely taking back the House, R2.

They're definitely taking the House. Have you not been paying attention to the recent elections, R2?

I’ve been paying attention to every election for the past 20 years. Believe me, the Dems will have control of the House next year.

I hope I'm wrong and Dems do get control of the House. I just don't see how that will happen given how badly the GOP has gerrymandered so many states.

California here we come

Any dreams of Dems of taking over the House go through California. And they gotta get their act straight if we are to deny P. Ryan Speakership.

Typically politico concern trolling at r8 — and the Dems will take over by much more than two seats.

OP There’s a huge reason to take over the senate that you’re not considering — blocking judicia and other appointments

Alternative argument:

RBG dies next year and Trump installs Roy Moore in her seat. We lose abortion and SSM in a year. And that's the least of it.

Still like the sound of that?

I would love to see whatever shithole r7 lives in. But we’re doing great here in beautiful sunny diverse progressive California. K kunt?

What r10 said. The most important part of taking back the Senate is the Supreme Court. If RBG were to die do you want Trump to be able to replace her with a right-wing nutcase that will tilt the court's balance for the rest of our lives?

Democrats will lose seats in the Senate, and gain 40 seats in the House. The Democrats have "the worst Senate map that any party has faced ever."

R13 have a great chance to take AZ and NV. Along with Jones, that would be a three state pickup. What 3 states would they lose?

R14 West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri and Indiana. With the shutdown that is going down tonight McConnell will put up DACA for votes to politically embarrass the Democratic senators from those five states.

Nate Silver's point is fair. It is important to remember that the senate map for the Democrats is INCREDIBLY bad, you can't overstate this point.

It is possible for them to win control of the Senate, but it is an uphill battle against the reality we are facing.

OP,

2018 will result in majority-control pickups of both houses of Congress.

The U.S. House will see Democratic pickups from the likes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. Biggest count will come from California. New York will also have impact. Take those states and multiply by 2 (average per state), and that is a Democratic gain of over 30 seats. It is also possible, if it this bad for Republicans, that single-congressional districts in states like Montana and South Dakota may be in play. And I would question Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a 2014 Republican pickup of that district, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. And Kansas may have a seat as well. There is also Tennessee, with a competitive U.S. Senate race. (I haven’t tracked Indiana and Missouri, two other states which spring to mind and had been part of midterm election waves.)

The U.S. Senate will be a majority-control Democratic pickup as all Democratic-held states/seats get retained. The pickups, from Republican side, to go along with the Democrats’ 49 will start with Nevada and, the tipping point state, Arizona. Any more would be Tennessee, Texas, and a question of John McCain’s seat in Arizona possibly going to a special election (if he leaves). Nebraska is next. But, the Republicans will likely not have a problem with Utah and Wyoming.

The governorships, with Democrats currently at 16, will be a majority pickup—needed are +10—because eight of the 20 states carried in 2016 by Hillary Clinton have Republican governors. If the national wave is so big, there will be lots of voters—skewed heavily by Democrats—who will choose Democratic nominees even for the governorships. The eight states carried by Hillary Clinton with Republican governors: Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Vermont. Then there are five (of six) states Trump flipped which have Republican governors: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Add to this Tennessee (a competitive U.S. Senate election), Arizona (a competitive U.S. Senate election), Georgia (voting in presidential elections like Arizona and trending away from the GOP), as well as states we commonly don’t consider but which tend to elect governors from the party opposite the sitting U.S. president: Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Kansas spring to mind. (They’ve been on the pattern since at least the 1990s. Wyoming has been at it since 1958.)

Below is a map of the U.S. Senate. It highlights what would play out if it turns out to become a Democratic majority-control pickup. (Solid shades are party holds. Light blue are Democratic pickups. Those in in beige, which I would normally have in yellow, had that option been available to me, are tossups. This is more like a pecking order. So, that trio would be the next tier.)

Great info, R17.

Kyle Frenette, who managed the band Bon Iver, is running for Congress in Wisconsin. It's a northern seat, WI-07, held by that "Real World" douche-bag Sean Duffy.

Frenette is very cute, btw.