How long until Tesla stock crashes?

Are the cars themselves actually good?

OP smells like a short getting burned. Yum.

It may not crash; it could explode!

I like Tesla. Tesla stock, I mean.

Let me guess: OP is the resident Idiot Libertarian Troll who has started multiple threads on Tesla and Elon Musk in the past?

Well if the Westport/Stamford/Greenwich area is any indication, Tesla is doing a booming business. They're everywhere

They’re ready to release self-driving long-distance tractor trailer trucks.

It was on CBS Sunday, Sunday.

They delivered 345 cars of their new “downscale” model in November (estimated- Unlike traditional carmakers they don’t release their monthly sales until their quarterly report) while Chevy Volt sold nearly 3,000.

Not short yet. But I’ve got the cash poised for a 90% drop.

R7

The reporting by the group of physicist studying the tesla semi is hysterical.

When math nerds are explaining why your radically inefficient and oversized batteries are incapable of doing what you claim they can do, you should probably listen.

Amazon didn’t make a profit for over a decade, IIRC, so they have time.

[quote]Idiot Libertarian

Redundant

Tesla – which lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down 18% from a year ago.

There are all kinds of interesting aspects about this.

One: 3,590 vehicles amounts to a market share of only 0.26%, of the 1,393,010 new cars and trucks sold in the US in November. Porsche outsold Tesla by 55% (5,555 new vehicles).

Two: Tesla doesn’t report monthly deliveries. It wants to play with the big boys, but it doesn’t want people to know on a monthly basis just how crummy and by comparison inconsequential its US sales numbers are. Opaque and dedicated to hype, it refuses to disclose how many vehicles it delivered that month in the US. So the industry is estimating Tesla’s monthly US sales.

Tesla discloses unit sales data in its quarterly earnings reports, long after everyone has already forgotten about the months in which they occurred.

Three: So how are Model 3 sales doing? Since Tesla doesn’t disclose its monthly deliveries in the US, the industry is guessing. The assembly line still isn’t working. “Manufacturing bottlenecks,” as Tesla calls it, and “manufacturing hell,” as Elon Musk calls it, rule the day.

In Q3, Tesla delivered 220 handmade Model 3’s. In October, it delivered about 145 handmade units. In November, the assembly line still wasn’t assembling cars. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered a whopping 345 units in November.

Four: This is where hype goes to die. In February 2017, Tesla hyped these Model 3 production numbers for 2017:

Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.

November is solidly in the fourth quarter. 5,000 vehicles per week would mean over 20,000 a month. OK, this is November and not December, so maybe 4,000 a week for a total of 16,000. We got 345.

Even if the estimate of 345 is off by 100 units up or down, it doesn’t even matter. And December isn’t looking much better. Because there is still no mass-produced Model 3.

Five: The bestselling Model S isn’t best-selling anymore. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered 1,335 Model S in the US. This was far outpaced by the humble Model-3-killer the Chevy Bolt. GM sold 2,987 Bolts in November. Tesla is also estimated to have delivered 1,875 Model X SUVs in the US. It took the Model S and the Model X combined to beat the humble Bolt.

Six: The unglamorous Model-3-killer is number one. The Chevy Bolt faces no “production bottlenecks” and no “manufacturing hell.” It was rolled out gradually, starting in October 2016 in California and Oregon, with other states being added to the distribution plan over time. By August 2017, the Bolt was available in all states. By September, 2,632 Bolts were sold in the US; in October 2,781; and in November 2,987.

The Bolt became the best-selling EV in October and retained that crown in November. Nothing was even close. November was the ninth month in a row of rising sales, as it should be for a brand-new vehicle line. GM has sold 20,070 Bolts so far this year.

Seven: But the Bolt is just a flyspeck for GM. It’s something to build the foundation for a larger shift to EVs. It represented just 1.2% of GM’s total deliveries in the US in November. EVs are still just a niche product. And yet, even this flyspeck crushed every Tesla model without fanfare.

Every automaker is preparing a lineup of EVs. Unlike Tesla, they have their supply chains down pat, and they know how to get their assembly lines to function, and they know how to mass-produce vehicles. There are already about two dozen EV models on the market in the US. Like GM, these automakers are just using their EVs to lay the groundwork for the broader shift.

Tesla has used two years of hype surrounding the Model 3 as a way to boost its share price. This allows it to raise many more billions by selling more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible investors, and by selling more debt to institutional investors who believe that Tesla’s ability to sell still more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible retail investors will in effect guarantee the junk-rated debt they just bought. Few companies have ever been able to perform that scheme at this masterful level.

OP, this is exactly what they said about Amazon back in the day.

R11 = fascist

op = Bill Ackman trying to move on.

R14

Amazon has a functional product.

Tesla has expensive toys.

R17, I have to pipe-in here. Tesla has expensive toys until they get their manufacturing line optimized. Then they will have an electric Car. Do you still have a horse?

R17, Amazon was built from the ground up. Initially it only sold books.

[quote]Idiot Libertarian

[quote]Redundant

This one is a special kind of stupid, R11. He's been around here for over a decade, posting some of the dumbest drivel you've ever seen. Even for Libertarians, he's in a class by himself.

[quote]op = Bill Ackman trying to move on.

Nah, it's just our usual resident Idiot Libertarian Troll, who's got some kind of hate on for Musk. Nobody knows why but he's posted several threads on this over the past year or so.

His reply at r12, by the way, was quoting the linked article. He never has been able to figure out that you need to cite what you're copying and pasting.

R19

Are you retarded?

Comparing AMZN to TSLA is laughable

[quote][R17], Amazon was built from the ground up. Initially it only sold books.

Now it sells everything.

How old are you, r22?

The stock market isn't going to crash in Trump's first term. If he chooses not to run again or loses it will definitely crash after 2021 and it may crash during his second term.

If he chooses not to run?.. You lost all credibility on that.

Tesla stock is up 2.25% today. I know a day doesn’t mean much, but that a big bump, nonetheless.

OP, brought to you by the fossil fuel industry.

By mid-century electric cars will be dominate. Almost everyone realizes this. And thanks to Trump and company, China will own this industry.

Tesla and Amazon are both executing long-term strategic plans explained by their founding CEOs in earnings calls and shareholder letters. Tesla can withstand years of P&L “failure” while it builds the future of energy and transport infrastructure.

R29

Only as long as people keep lending Tesla money. A quarter billion per quarter in cash burn is unsustainable.

They have enough money for eight more months of operations support they need to bag investors for another round.

Tesla had a window with the Model 3 to be the star of the EV market, but that time period is closing quickly. The Chevy Bolt is nearing sales of 3,000 units per month, and the next generation Leaf is now being produced in the US with dealerships getting them as early as next month. Early demand was strong, with over 9,000 orders in Europe and Japan in less than two months, which is significant because the Model 3 won't get to those markets for quite some time. I'm not even sure Tesla knows when certain deliveries are going to happen, because as the image below shows, the Model 3 page shows very conflicting information. They failed to update the part below "12-18 months", so how can someone who is reserving a vehicle for delivery a year or more out expect to get it in mid 2018? The only way that happens if is demand completely falls off a cliff.

—

So is the month of December going to be Tesla's last stand? While it appears regular customers are about to start receiving deliveries, will it be enough progress when Tesla announces its quarterly figures in the first few days of January? With the Bolt selling strong, the Leaf about to go on sale in the US, and a variety of other competitors not too far off, Tesla's window appears to be closing. With cobalt prices and interest rates rising, Tesla's profitability and cash flow concerns will only be heightened.

Wow! Up 4.4% today!

Shorties getting nervous.

Tesla is a $cam financed by YOU the tax-slaver. It has made a zillionaire out of the politically well-connected creepy who heads it and it would not even exist were it not for YOU the tax-slaver subsidizing it!

Tesla will tank when Solid-state batteries hit the market in 4/5 years time.

R34 As if we're not subsidizing the oil industry by the trillions! And even the electric car subsidies are going away soon, thanks to the Kochs and all you deplorables who keep those pigs rich for some self-destructive reason. Thanks to China, ICE cars are going away for good.

R35 Nah, that'll give them even greater range and companies are stumbling over themselves ordering their Semis, which only enter producton two years from now. Ain't no one beating Tesla and Panasonic at the battery game.

As if we're not subsidizing the oil industry by the trillions!

How is that?....Please clarify.

R37 - The wars in the Middle East for starters. This is all about keeping the oil flowing.

Well, the only way to stop wars is to cut off the financing, which means ending the Federal government's power to borrow money. Sadly, the USA is controlled by a collectia of satanist criminal conspiracies so this will never happen.

When the people are taxed to pay for wars the wars will stop because the people will not tolerate the drain of their money.

The Mercury News reported (via the Probes Reporter) that Tesla was under an SEC investigation related to the Model 3 and could still be.

The Palo Alto electric car maker’s process for selling the Model 3 — a $35,000 sedan aimed at the mass market — involved taking $1,000 deposits, for future delivery. Hundreds of thousands of would-be Tesla owners have put up money for the Model 3.

The SEC investigation into the company ended in May with no enforcement action taken.

--"Tesla was under federal investigation over Model 3, may still be, report says" Mercury News, December 14, 2017

The reason: the SEC believed "the company might have been 'making false statements of material fact or failing to disclose material facts concerning the company’s Model 3 vehicle.'"

The Mercury News, via the Probes Report, mentioned that there could "at least one other unresolved SEC probe."

Tesla, without any doubt, is on the verge of bankruptcy.

The company cannot survive the next twelve months without access to capital from Wall Street Banks or private investors.

We estimate that Tesla will need roughly $8 billion in the next 18 months to fund operating losses, capital expenditures, debts coming due, and working capital needs.

However, it appears that due to past SEC investigations and current investigations (which terrifyingly have not been disclosed by the company), it will likely be difficult for Tesla to access public markets.

According to a recent analyst report, there have been 85 SEC requests for additional information and disclosures in the last 5 years.

This compares to Ford Motor Company’s total of zero over the same time frame. This means that Tesla is pushing many, many boundaries.

When a company is under formal investigation, it is difficult, if not impossible, to raise capital from public markets as these investigations must be made public, which generally craters the equity and debt values.

Therefore, Tesla investors better hope there are a number of Greater Fools in China or elsewhere to keep the company solvent.

At some point, the music stops and there aren’t any open chairs.

No matter how good a social investment makes you feel as it is going up, extreme anger will result if most or all of your money is permanently lost, especially when it is due to false and misleading statements by senior company officers.

This is when the [Department of Justice] steps in and escorts untruthful managements to their new living quarters.

. . . As a reality check, Tesla is worth twice as much as Ford* yet Ford made 6 million cars last year at a $7.6 billion profit while Tesla made 100,000 cars at a $2 billion loss.

Further, Ford has $12 billion in cash held for “a rainy day” while Tesla will likely run out of money in the next 3 months.

So you're afraid people in Teslas are going to take your guns? How big are the trunks on those things?

I think I'm going to have to buy one to find out.

*sigh*

Idiot Libertarian Troll, what is it with you and your inability to link to content that others wrote? Instead, you post it as though you wrote it yourself. Of course, if you had acknowledged who wrote it (John Thompson, of Vilas Capital Management), you might have also had to cite this part of Thompson's letter:

[quote]the Fund's short position in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is now our largest holding, long or short.

So Thompson has a huge stake in shorting Tesla and has a vested interest in trying to make it crash. That does tend to raise some eyebrows about the note. It's also worth noting that Thompson has shorted Amazon and Netflix, as well, and has taken a beating on all three shorts.

R43

Ha.

Tesla is essentially bankrupt.

Would any company buy/bailout Tesla? Even though their business model sucks, the technology is still valuable.

R46

I don’t see why it is F&F.

—

While there is some debate amongst those following the company, it seems that Tesla will have cash losses of between $3 and $6 billion this year, along with another $4 to $6 billion or so of cap-ex. Let’s call it a clean $10 billion of cash needs. Based on current burn rates, they should run out of money sometime late this summer. However, companies don’t ever run their cash to absolute zero—hence Tesla will likely need to raise capital sooner. This is where reflexivity kicks in.

With the bonds now at 87, the borrowing window is effectively closed—this then forces Tesla into the equity market. Note how when the bonds started to leak, so did the share price. This was due to investors reflexively anticipating more dilution. However, the lower the share price goes, the more dilution there will be. $10 billion is serious dilution—even with Tesla’s massively inflated share price. Hence, the lower the shares go, the less valuable they will be in the future—as it leads to more dilution—which leads people to sell their shares as the company will be worth less—which leads to more dilution in a feedback loop.

[quote]Ha. Tesla is essentially bankrupt.

We get it, Idiot Libertarian Troll: you [italic]really[/italic] don't like Elon Musk. I have no idea why nor do I particularly care. You may be right that Tesla is "essentially bankrupt" (as you've been claiming for a few years now) but, so far, all you've been able to post is speculation.

But hey, there's hope for you yet: you actually managed to post a link! Congratulations!

I love OP's red tag!

Monday will be interesting. Having to recall half your fleet for a major problem is not cash positive.

Tesla needs to raise money, sometime in the next 3 months. Their bonds are at .87 cents, or virtually junk bonds.

Private equity is not going to be offering them the LIBOR plus half a percent, LOL!

You really need to work on this sick obsession you have with Musk, Idiot Libertarian Troll. Nothing's going to happen on Monday.

They had another stellar week!

They'll be fine. Model 3 production is ramping up nicely and they weren't far off from their aggressive targets. We'll have to wait and see for the official figures to be released this week.

I love how people are cheering the demise of this company when electric transportation is the one thing that's sorely needed to avoid the worst of climate change. We should be applauding anyone who decides to push electric vehicles over those antiquated internal combustion dinosaurs. Sorry, engines.

In this case, it's not really "people," r53. It's one persistent troll, an idiotic libertarian who's got a hate on (and probably a hardon) for Musk. Others, of course, are cheering for a downturn because they're shorting the stock. See, for example, the comment at r43.

Courtesy of Daniel Sparks:

[quote]Shares of Tesla(NASDAQ: TSLA) jumped on Wednesday, rising as much as 7.8%. By the end of the trading day, the stock was up 7.3%, extending momentum from Tuesday, when it surged about 6%.

[quote]Optimism from the stock on Wednesday likely reflects the same catalyst that sent shares higher on Tuesday: The automaker said Model 3 production had accelerated to a rate of about 2,000 units per week. In addition, Tesla said the Model 3's rapidly rising production meant the electric-car company wouldn't need to raise capital this year.

So much for those dire predictions above....

(Realistically, I think Tesla does have some problems. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that. But I love how the ILT will unquestioningly swallow anything he finds on those websites he frequents, without ever bothering to question whether any of it might be true or not. He simply isn't intelligent enough to think for himself.)

Who is the Tesla troll?

It's the Idiot Libertarian Troll, who's been infesting the site for at least the last dozen years or so. He's a gold bug, anti-Fed, Ron Paul devotee, who is one of the dumbest and most persistent trolls around. At least he no longer does what he used to, where he'd come in every so often and resurrect a couple dozen of his old threads with an identical post in each one.

As to why he has a hate on for Musk, nobody knows. One of the sites he frequents probably had a post up about it and he is slavishly devoted to anything he reads on those sites. It was probably the linked post in the other DL thread he started on Musk that set him off.

Were it not for you - the American taxslaver - subsidizing Tesla it would fold in a week.

Hopefully Trump will eliminate those insane and totally un-necessary subsidies that have made zillionaire$ out of politically well-connected parasites like Fugly Musk.

Okay, I stand corrected: two idiot trolls.

Emphasis on "idiot."

Erna, you do realize that the US government already subsidizes the other automakers and the petroleum industry to a far greater extent than it could ever support Tesla, right?

Yes but real cars and oil are essential.

Electric cars are an insane vanity and they don't reduce overall CO2 emissias (as if that were a problem, which it is not) one iota.

[quote] Erna: Yes but real cars and oil are essential.

And electric vehicles are not? Sorry, I don’t understand how you came up with this.

[quote] Erna: Electric cars are an insane vanity and they don't reduce overall CO2 emissias (as if that were a problem, which it is not) one iota.

Link for the CO2 info, please.

Let’s not argue about Climate Change. It’s been discussed in multiple, earlier threads.

[quote]Yes but real cars and oil are essential.

Of course that's not true but then reality never has been your strong point, has it, dear? Excrement, on the other hand....

[quote]Electric cars are an insane vanity and they don't reduce overall CO2 emissias (as if that were a problem, which it is not) one iota.

Sorry but, as usual, you're 100% wrong. That does seem to be a habit for you, doesn't it, dear? Have you, perhaps, ever wondered why you're always wrong?

Don't bother, R63. Erna is a drive-by troll. He won't respond with any meaningful data, at least partially because he can't. Just laugh at him or ignore him and move on.

Where does the electricity come from for charging the electric cars? It will come from electric power plants which burn CO2. Sorry, but wind farms and solar power are not and will not do the job.

Sorry, r65, but you and reality aren't even nodding acquaintances. Yes, the electricity comes from power plants but those plants emit far less CO2 than do gasoline engines. And will emit less and less as energy from sustainable sources continues to grow. You really have no idea what you're talking about.

yes, we do. the emissias are not a problem in the first place.

A lot of energy plants are switching from really dirty energy sources, like coal or even oil, to natural gas. Fracking and other new technology has generated an abundance of natural gas, which is arguably the cleanest of the petroleum sources. It’s sometimes called a bridge to renewable energy sources.

Meanwhile, renewable energy sources are growing in market share, and new technology is making them more competitive.

Massachusetts almost had an offshore wind farm. Ted Kennedy blocked it for years. After he died, it went on the ballot, and a majority actually voted to pay a slightly higher energy bill if the money was used to support renewable, offshore wind farms. Alas, by then, fracking and other technology reduced the cost of natural gas so much, and for other reasons, the wind farm was no longer feasible.

I don’t think they would be unsightly. I do think we need to get on this as it really will be necessary in the coming decades. If we don’t, it’ll just be another thing we have to buy from the Chinese, who are investing heavily in it.

Did t either Germany or France pledge to eliminate their nuclear power plants, after the Japanese debacle with thT tsunami? If it was France, it’s a big deal, because they get a lot of their energy from nukes. It’s too bad, as it seems like an ideal way to generate power, if it were safe.

One other drawback, though, is that, in Connecticut, the nuclear plant there is discharging so much hot water that the area of Long Island Sound nearby is becoming a dead zone.

[quote]yes, we do. the emissias are not a problem in the first place.

LOL.... So, Erna, dear, you got caught making shit up and so you have to move the goalposts. You poor thing.

They can’t raise case because of the 7.5% (implied) interest rate...so where do they get cash?

Do try to keep up, Idiot Libertarian Troll. Per the article quoted in R55, they don't need cash.

They keep burning through cash...and cars!

[QUOTE]They'll be takin' our gunz!

😂 That red tag is hilarious.

[quote] Fracking and other new technology has generated an abundance of natural gas, which is arguably the cleanest of the petroleum sources. It’s sometimes called a bridge to renewable energy sources.

Natural gas burns somewhat cleaner, but if they have an accident and methane leaks into the atmosphere, methane is much, much worse for the climate that CO2.

Why Are "Thousands" of Teslas Sitting In a Field in California?

"There's so much inventory here, it's crazy."

When Tesla finally met its Model 3 production run rate target, astute investors and analysts pointed out the use of the word "factory gated" in the company's press release: “Not only did we factory gate 5000 Model 3’s, but we also achieved the S & X production target for a combined 7000 vehicle week!” Musk wrote in an email to his staff that week.

Years from now we'll find out it was all a scam like we did with Theranos

R78

I’ve been saying the exact same goddamn thing for three years. I knew Theranos was a scam from the beginning.

When you have that many evil bastards on your Board of Directors that quickly, you know something shady is going on.

The Very Creepy, Kissinger Connected, Theranos

I have already commented on the very curious firm Theranos and its very curious board that includes Henry Kissinger and a bunch of politicos and military men on the board of directors. (SEE: What is Henry Kissinger and Gang Up To Now?)

The cover story is that Theranos is a firm that offers comprehensive laboratory tests from samples as small as a few drops of blood at very low prices. It will thus disrupt the diagnostic sector and make complex tests available to the poor throughout the world. But as one observer put it, Kissinger may be many things, but a humanitarian is not one of them. In my initial commentary,I speculated that, perhaps, the tests were going to be a way for Kissinger and team to loot some international health related organizations:

A blood diagnostic company this may be, but with this crowd involved something else is probably up. Perhaps, Kissinger gave it away when he mentioned the tests will "bring this advance to developing nations." Could this mean it is a scam to siphon UN and WHO money for the test? If that is the extent of the scam, my guess is the US citizenry will get off fairly lightly, with just a few dollars from each taxpayer ending up in the pockets of Kissinger, Schultz, Bechtel et al. But with this group they seem to enjoy rubbing in an extra layer of evil. Theranos needs to be monitored closely.

I am glad I added the cautionary note with my speculation. I just came across this in a 2013 WSJ profile of Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes

Ms. Holmes declines to discuss Theranos’s future plans, though one may speculate. There could be military applications in the battlefield, especially given the numerous framed American flags across the Theranos office and the presence on its corporate board of retired Gens. Jim Mattis and Gary Roughead, former Defense Secretary Bill Perry and former Secretary of State George Shultz. Framed American flags across the Theranos office? Very creepy.

And the same profile includes this news from former Secretary of State and Treasury, and current Bechtel Corporation capo, George Shultz (Riley P. Bechtel-Chairman of the Board and a Director of Bechtel also sits on the board of Theranos)

In a conversation about a year ago, Secretary Shultz said Ms. Holmes could be "the next Steve Jobs or Bill Gates. "

When I put it to him again on my recent visit, he smiles slyly. "This is not the last thing she's going to invent or create."

A year ago someone else had the bloody common sense to see that Tesla was rubbish?

Grand Conspiracy by those powerful libertarians!!!!

Maybe these idiot trolls are just naturally smarter than you are, and are capable of seeing the future more clearly?

Anyone with half a brain could tell that Tesla was a scam on the level of Theranos.