Trump makes big gains in latest PA Poll

Go DonJo!!

Chances of winning PA according to the guys who have called every election correctly in the past 8 years:

Hillary Clinton 69.9% Donald Trump 30.1%

Damn, get out the vote, keystoners!

Losing 6 points in one week is a bit much. Her ads are running constantly here, but they certainly are not inspiring. They are basically attack ads and I don't think they are helping her campaign here in PA.

I've said this before - I have seen not one Hillary sign here. I'm seeing Trump signs and a lot of signs supporting the police.

Trump held a big rally here a couple days ago, 5 thousand people showed up to see him. Hillary came last week to Temple University and only a couple hundred students attended (one group was bussed in - a high school field trip)

She isn't drawing crowds here.

awesome news, OP. thanks.

Oh so NOW we like Nate Silver again. It's so hard to keep up between our "he's a god" and "he's useless" schizophrenia. However I do seem to recall two weeks ago he said if Hillary hadn't improved this week, it's time to panic. And looking just now she's lost ground slightly since he made that statement.

Who would win the presidency today?

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton 57.9%

Donald Trump 42.1%

Meanwhile RCP averages call the electoral college a virtual draw.

272 tClinton/Kaine

Trump/Pence t266

R4. She is making same mistake which Trump's republican primary opponents did .

They made their ads all about him . When it should have been about them .

Hillary keeps saying Trump is racist , xenophobic,misogynist, Nazi , Islamophobic etc etc . Yes we heard it once . No need of spending million and million of dollars speaking same thing again .She is making all about him.

She should tell more about her own policies which will help Americans . She should also go out and do more open rallies like Trump does .

[quote]Trump held a big rally here a couple days ago, 5 thousand people showed up to see him. Hillary came last week to Temple University and only a couple hundred students attended (one group was bussed in - a high school field trip)

Remember when Romney held rallies in PA in the closing days of his campaign and it brought it tear to his eye? He thought the large crowd sizes was going to secure him Pennsylvania.

He lost it by more than 5 points.

Kerry even won PA. If Hillary can't hold it, she ought to consider dropping out. In other words, it won't be going red.

get bashed faggot r8. trump is going to win.

A new ABC Poll released

No, it won't be a close race, not in Pennsylvania, not in the national popular vote, and not in the electoral college. So get fucked, Trumpkins.

[quote]She isn't drawing crowds here.

And just where, pray tell, do you live in Pennsyltucky? Hint: It's not the part of the state that actually matters.

Trump's not drawing crowds either. Today his Virginia rally was half empty. I guess racists have better things to do on Saturday.

Did Hillary get out of bed today?

R9 = proof Trump fans on DL are trolls scouring the internet to push their disgusting views, and not DL regulars.

New Hope R12

Not even a Clinton sign to be spotted here..

R14 , She is recovering fast

"If Hillary can't hold it, she ought to consider dropping out. In other words, it won't be going red"

R8, She is not dropping out. PA may very well go red this year. This is a VERY different election than in years past. Half of the country basically detests both canidates - that is a huge problem.

I want to know who designed Hillary's logo to look like a hospital sign knowing how precarious her health is. The street art that was popping up for her visit was hysterical.

Robby Mook is dumb .

Trumpkins use "our opponent is weak and dying" as a campaign strategy, because they really know how to take the high road.

As opposed to calling people deplorable? I mean when she passes out or coughs up half her lung for the whole world to see is it really Trump using it?

r22, are people who think that blacks are inferior to whites deplorable? Is the KKK deplorable?

Your are wrong R18

No one detests our Great Future Madam President. It is all lies from the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy. The real people here in North KoRodham know that the Great Future Madam President is a kindly grandmother figure who is most qualified. As New York Times says, she has always cared about women and children issues and so they love her for that in return. It is the Evil Giant Cheeto they "detest."

You must be a Freeper if you question the likeability and love of the people for the Great Future Madam President.

She has planned to be down in the polls to stage her glorious comeback

Die you fascist scum!!

Oh and r22 did Hillary cough, or have a fainting spell, before the alt-right start slandering her about her health? No.

R24 FOR SECRETARY OF SNAP!

Oh the irony of Trumpkins claiming that Hillary supporters are like North Koreans when they are supporting trump because of a cult of personality not much different from the one surrounding the dear leader ....

Trump had about 6,000 people at his rally in Virginia. I know that doesn't count for anything at the voting booth but to say he doesn't fill or nearly fill his venues is a flat out lie. Hillary can't fill a high school lunch room. During lunch.

How did that work out for Bernie Sanders, R28?

Is the man who killed 50 of us in Orlando deplorable? Oh wait he supported Clinton scratch that

44 days left! Seems so close, yet so far away...

OP IS A YUUUGE TRUMP SUPPORTER. Why on earth are you entertaining this asshole?

Other jewels created by OP today

Another OP jewel of a thread:

[quote]Trump is headed for a win

[quote]Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly.

[quote]Interesting article. This guy doesn't use polls, but he certainly has a greta track record of predicting who will be POTUS

Amurkans deserve him. But he won't be able to fulfill his bizarro promises. In fact, he won't even try; it's just bait 'n switch, suckers.

And if you listen to his former business partners, that's how he gave them the shaft.

But there won't be any "swift boat" campaigns about that.

Calm down, MARY! @R32

Just giving DL Hill-bottoms a little dose of reality. Trump and Clinton are in a near dead heat - despite the fantasy world most of you here are in.

So much for DL saying Trump will never win PA

Another thing DL was WRONG about

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 37%, Johnson 7% (CBS News/YouGov)

Colorado: Clinton 40%, Trump 39%, Johnson 7% (CBS News/YouGov)

Maine: Clinton 40%, Trump 36% (UNH)

Missouri: Trump 46%, Clinton 37%, Johnson 5% (YouGov)

Utah: Trump 34%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 13% (Dan Jones & Associates)

I can't believe how quickly Virginia has turned from a reliably red state that Bush carried by over 8 points in 2004 to a state that will likely hand Hillary the same margin in 2016. A near 16 point swing in a span of 12 years. Really striking.

I think Tim Kaine had turned out to be a great choice as running mate because it may be the biggest factor keeping the big state of Virginia leaning Hillary

#NEW #Colorado, @BreitbartNews (R)/ @GravisMarketing Poll:

Trump 41 (+4) Clinton 37 Johnson 6 Stein 6

Christ on a crab cake, the election night map is going to be a sea of blood red!

[quote] the election night map is going to be a sea of blood red!

Just might be. Nate Silver updated an hour ago. If the election was NOW:

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton 55.1%

Donald Trump 44.9%

Each time I look she is down a bit more and he is up.

Let's face it, unless he blows the debate (and he might), Trump's won.

R36,

There is not going to be a 7-point spread between Virginia and Colorado. They have been no greater than 3.53 percentage points in their spread from each other since 1996. In 2012, they were 1.48.

Virginia gave Obama a re-election margin of 3.88 as he won nationwide by 3.86. It is highly likely Virginia (with Colorado) will go for this year’s winner as well.

Iowa carried at 5.80 while Colorado was 5.38 for a 2012 Obama.

If Iowa flips to carry for Trump, so will Colorado and Virginia. Florida and Ohio, at 0.88 and 2.98 for a 2012 Obama, will have flipped even before Iowa for Trump.

R38,

Tim Kaine is a shitty vice-presidential running mate.

R41,

Give Nate Silver and Five Thirty Eight more time.

More time for what?

For Nate Silver to raise the percentage odds for Donald Trump and lower them for Hillary Clinton.

I live in Lancaster County, PA and I've barely seen any Hillary signs, but I've seen hundreds of Trump signs (and one Gary Johnson sign, lol). I've seen some houses that literally have Trump *banners* stretched across the front of their house. It's bullshit. I'm sad to say, I have plenty of family members who will vote for Donald Trump (even if I wasn't a Hillary supporter myself, I sure as fuck wouldn't vote for that bloated windbag!) but I'm hoping the democrats in Philadelphia are enough for Hillary to win the state. Fingers crossed.

[quote] but I'm hoping the democrats in Philadelphia are enough for Hillary to win the state

Depends how badly they want to stay healthy.

R47 - bucks country here, and not one Hillary sign has been spotted. I'm seeing Trump signs, more and more each day.

I was in northeast philly a few days ago - trump signs spotted there too.

What do the Hillary signs even look like? Do they say "stronger together" or "I'm with her" considering I haven't seen either I wouldn't know.

I've a strong feeling PA will go red this year.

R48 is that part of Hillarys "ground game" people keep boasting about? Looks scarey..

Guys, honestly this is reason to be concerned. They were even talking about it on CNN. Pennsylvania is EVERYTHING this election. It is her firewall (she can win with PA and still lose Ohio and Florida), it is his only chance of victory.

It is true there is strong support for Trump in more rural areas like Lancaster and Lebanon counties. Hershey has more suburban women which I'm hoping to god Hillary finally wins over Republicans. But yes, we depend on the big cities like Pittsburgh and Philly for victory. But only focusing there is not enough. She needs to go out (and her star surrogates) to those more red areas. To slim some of the vote from those red counties. Serve as an extra buffer just in case.

There is only one state Trump has a good ground game and it is PA. I forget the name of the guy who runs his operation in PA, but they talked about him on the news, he knows the state well. His campaign knows the importance.

R51 - Ted Christian is one of the guys running his ground game here. Ted lives in Bucks County (where I live) and I've posted this before on other threads but

You would never even know Hillary is running for president here. With the exception of her (horrible attack style) tv ads - there is no visual support (signs/bumper stickers etc) in the community here for her.

There is one magical substitute that Clinton might use: Georgia.

If she wins Georgia, then she can lose Ohio, Florida, PA, and Iowa and would still win 275 to 263. A slim win, but a win. This is why they are campaigning hard in Georgia, using Tim Kaine to rally the Hispanic vote. But it is true if PA, FL, and OH flip red it could be unlikely Georgia Peach would ripen blue.

R39 - LOL that Colorado poll shows Clinton losing to Trump by four points. Plausible, though not very likely. I went to see the methodology and the same sample shows Michael Bennett losing the US Senate race against some random dude that the Republicans have abandoned by two points. Where did they poll, Colorado Springs?

[quote]If Iowa flips to carry for Trump, so will Colorado and Virginia.

R43, I disagree with this part of your electoral map analysis.

Even if Trump wins Iowa and Colorado, and the election itself, he isn't guaranteed to win Virginia.

Virginia may now be becoming a Democratic state, similar to the way Missouri has become a Republican state instead of a swing state.

For 100 years between 1904 & 2004, Missouri voted for the winning Presidential candidate every time but once. It was considered a leading bellwether. However in 2008 & 2012, Missouri lost its status as a bellwether when it voted Republican both times instead of voting for Obama.

Therefore, it's possible that Virginia could remain blue even if Trump flips Iowa & Colorado. In fact, right now, Virginia has a higher likelihood of voting Democratic than Pennsylvania does.

When Trump wins, can we blame a reaction to the left's insufferable political correctness?

[quote]When Trump wins, can we blame a reaction to the left's insufferable political correctness?

You can blame Debbie and the Democratic establishment, including Obama, for clearing the field for Hillary to get the nomination. There should have been a dozen candidates and a real choice provided to voters. ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT would be leading now by 20 points.

Yes, R56.

The Trump trolls in this thread should all fuck off. You're fucking disgusting.

Disgusting is supporting a candidate who thinks it's okay to kill gays, R5, yet you support Hillary. Self-loathing?

^Wow, what a psycho. Just disgusting.

Trump trolls think people are stupid like them, so they use red herrings and complete bullshit worthy of Nazi Germany to win the argument.

"Sharia Law is coming!!!" Fuck you, ya psychotic brown shirts. Go spend more time in red states where your stupid ass is still targeted by actual Republican legislators to this day instead of constantly checking on your bed for Muslims.

under* your bed

Yes, R56. Yes we can. I think that's exactly what this election year is mostly about.

No, it's about you wanting to validate your specious logic. You're liars like Trump and you want to pretend you're not just bottom-feeding scum. And frankly, I notice many of you come out at this time. I don't think some of you are even American.

Anyone know what R65 is going on about?

Not sure really.

Get Out The Vote!

I believe that's a reference to the Russian trolls everywhere. There was a diagram in one of these threads yesterday, showing that after the debate there was a huge number of Russian trolls tweeting about how great Trump was. They were all from one particular area of Russia.

It's amazing to me how committed Putin is to influencing this election. He must really think he's going to get some really big favors from Trump. He's pretty much admitted he'd like to try to regain all the territory from the old Soviet Union, and Trump's pretty much admitted he's just going to stand by and let him.

[quote]There was a diagram in one of these threads yesterday, showing that after the debate there was a huge number of Russian trolls tweeting about how great Trump was. They were all from one particular area of Russia.

Turned out it was fake.

Ok, can I just say. There seem to be these alt right gay guys who think they are so clever by saying the same argument "All gays should be against Hillary. She wants to let in the Syrian refugees, don't you realize they are Muslims who want to kill gays?! You are self-loathing"

Um... did you forget that some of those refugees ARE gay, wishing to escape religious persecution? We can have valid discussions about how many refugees we should accept for various reasons, but to completely ignore the humanitarian crisis in this matter, including the involvement of sexual minorities, is ignorant.

And are you forgetting, R71, that Trump has specifically said he wants to let in the gay ones?

Being gay doesn't guarantee a Muslim won't radicalize.

What about Trump's anti-gay running mate, Mike Pence?

He should be brought into this discussion.

The polls really are bullshit.

R72, Donald Trump has never said he wants to let in the gay ones. He has never said he wants to let in any of the Syrian refugees. He was literally just comparing them to the Trojan Horse last night.

He proposed an ideology test for immigrants in general, seeing if they are compatible with values like "Do you believe women should be treated equally, do you believe homosexuality should be legal".

But he never said he wanted to let in gay Syrian refugees.

Agree, R75. Trump is likely much farther ahead than the polls indicate.

r56 In the sense that a lot of people's opposition to "political correctness" is only about society frowning upon OVERT RACISM, then yeah!

Mrs. Clinton and her foundation have taken millions of $$$ from countries that kill people like me. When her campaign seated the Orlando terrorist's father right behind her at a rally she lost me. She talks the LGBT line but she clearly doesn't walk it. Donald Trump has hung out with the gays since the 1970s. He was a regular at Studio 54. He also attended the funeral of Steve Rubell, a gay Jewish man who co-owned Studio 54. Mr. Trump is now the first Republican presidential candidate to actively ask for the gay vote. Thus, he gave a gay businessman a prominent speaking role at his convention. Is he perfect, of course not. However, Trump is not bought and paid for by the Saudi royal family. The Clintons and the Bushes are wholly-owned subsidiaries of the house of Saud. Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen, all were destabilized by Mrs. Clinton's policies. The adverse effects of her actions are continuing to reverberate across Europe as immigrants from Libya, Syria and other destabilized countries flood in. If any one thinks these recent immigrants are going to be pro-gay rights and secular, they are deluded.

Trump has TONS of business in those same countries that kill people like "you."

He may have tons of gay friends but has specifically said he will work to reverse gay marriage. Yes he will work actively to take away the main right we cherish and have worked decades for. He doesn't believe states should make it illegal to fire someone just because they're gay.

He is sucking up to the Christian right who wants to kill all of us too.

Sure, he can spend tons of time with his rich gay friends, but Trump has publicly declared he doesn't care about their rights

Trump wants to take away my Obamacare, something I thank god every day I have. Fuck him

Chances of losing thousands of dollars and destroying a life are FAR higher from the threat of gay marriage reversal than terrorism.

Look at the thousands on gay couples harmed throughout history because gay marriage was nonexistent or banned. Trump wants us to go back to that.

Clinton, on the other hand, has in speech after speech, proclaimed gays as equal Americans. Trump has NEVER said that NEVER.

R73, it's pretty good insurance that he won't radicalize. Of course, it's radical Christians I worry more about considering all the terrorism caused by right wing Christians in the US.

Trump will not be President.

R79, 1) Hillary did not know the man at her rally was the killer's father. They quickly disavowed his views. 2) Trump opposes gay marriage, refused to the support the equality act, supports FADA (which basically allows gay discrimination). He picked Mike Pence, the most homophobic governor who passed allow literally allowing sexual segregation in his state. An act so outrageously horrible, even Republicans hate him. He has said he wants a justice on the Supreme Court like Scalia, the most homophobic justice we ever had. He accepted the RNC platform, which is the most homophobic platform they ever had, even calling for conversion therapy. 3) He has NEVER asked for the gay vote. He said it was horrible that terrorists were killing gay people amongst others. That don't make you a hero. He invited Peter Thiel to his convention. Peter Thiel is a Machiavellian businessman who literally opposes democracy. But we're supposed to cheer that a gay guy was invited? 4) The Clinton Foundation accepted money from various countries including Saudi Arabia. You are damn right they did. Do you know how the Clinton Foundation works? Bill Clinton literally huddles a bunch of rich people together in a room, brings out some poor girl or sick boy, and pressures the shit out of those rich people until they donate money. And guess what, it works. The foundation has raised millions of dollars that have saved millions of lives, especially in regards to AIDS, the disease that once wrecked havoc on the gay community. Accepting donations from a country does not mean they support all the views of that country. Hillary Clinton has consistently fought for gay rights internationally, and there is no evidence that has ever been compromised by the foundation.

R79, I know you are desperately looking for a Republican to support gay rights, Trump is not it. Susan Collins supports gay rights. Colin Powell supports gay rights. James Comey supports gay rights. There are good Republicans. Trump is not. He is a homophobic person, who just because he doesn't express it as explicitly as Ted Cruz, makes feeble minded individuals like yourself believe he is some new age for Republican nominees. Do better next time.

I guarantee if Trump becomes President, he will be assassinated. At least, one can hope so.

[quote]Trump is likely much farther ahead than the polls indicate.

Not likely. We already have data on this, the differences between the polls and the votes in the primary. Generally, Trump's numbers were in line with the polls, with outliers in both directions. There is no data to indicate that Trump will out-perform his poll numbers.

[quote]Mrs. Clinton and her foundation have taken millions of $$$ from countries that kill people like me.

So? Clinton has taken no money at all; the foundation has and they have put it to good use. I've never understood this line of attack, as it makes no sense. Why should I be bothered that bad money is put to good use?

[quote]When her campaign seated the Orlando terrorist's father right behind her at a rally she lost me.

That's false. Her campaign did no such thing.

[quote]She talks the LGBT line but she clearly doesn't walk it.

Except that her track record indicates otherwise.

[quote]Donald Trump has hung out with the gays since the 1970s.

Oh, please. He signed off on the most anti-gay Republican Party platform ever. He has provided a list of judges that he would appoint to the Supreme Court, all of which are anti-gay. He has selected a rabidly anti-gay Vice-Presidential candidate.

[quote]Mr. Trump is now the first Republican presidential candidate to actively ask for the gay vote.

His actions do not match his rhetoric.

[quote]However, Trump is not bought and paid for by the Saudi royal family.

Neither is Clinton. Did you have a point to make?

[quote]Mrs. Clinton and her foundation have taken millions of $$$ from countries that kill people like me.

So has Trump.

[quote]When her campaign seated the Orlando terrorist's father right behind her at a rally she lost me.

They did no such thing.

[quote]Donald Trump has hung out with the gays since the 1970s. He was a regular at Studio 54. He also attended the funeral of Steve Rubell, a gay Jewish man who co-owned Studio 54.

So he was at a club with gay folks, and also went to the funeral of a dead gay guy, and you think that means he's more pro-LGB than Clinton? Girl...

[quote]Trump is not bought and paid for by the Saudi royal family.

Yeah, he kind of is -- the Middle East is where he does a lot of business. Also, the Russians own him.

[quote]Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen, all were destabilized by Mrs. Clinton's policies.

Name the policies. The official governmental names, because these are policies you claim have been enacted, so they will have labels. Please also link to articles discussing these policies in detail. And because you said "policies" in plural, make sure you do this for at least two.

R79, I don't know how much you know about the extremely close financial ties Trump has with Russia, but his fortune and ability to make money literally lies in Putin's hands, he owes so much money to Russian creditors. Putin has been grooming him for years. He had various Russian wealthy people approach Trump and offer to go into business with him, or offer him loans. Trump can't get loans in the U.S. any more due to his bankruptcies and many lawsuits about refusing to pay creditors. His credit here is shot. His son, Don Jr., did an interview before he ran, stating that a lot of the family income comes from Russia.

Russia under Putin is extremely homophobic. Gays in Russia are beaten and murdered. Their torture and murders are posted on the Russian version of YouTube for all to see. The police won't prosecute their attackers. A popular method is to appear on a gay website, agree to hookup in a park, then when the gay man appears, a gang of homophobes appears, drags the person to a house, then rapes, tortures and mutilates him for days. Some are murdered.

Putin himself claims that all gays are pedophiles who are looking to rape young children, and his views have made gays in Russia go back into the closet in fear. The popular view there now is that all gays are predators, looking for children to rape and young men to corrupt, and beating and killing them is a public service. That's why there is little interest in punishing their attackers.

Trump agrees with Putin publicly on many aspects of public life, in part because he owes his family's solvency to him. He chose Mike Pence, an extremely homophobic and religious fundamentalist individual, to be his VP and intends to have him help administer the government as Trump has no experience. Pence's ignorance and disapproval of gays mirrors Putin's.

In fact when Trump was looking for a VP, he offered (through his son) another potential VP candidate an opportunity to run the country. When that candidate asked Trump Jr what Trump would be doing while he was running the country (from his position of VP) Trump Jr said, "making America great again." He declined the offer.

[quote]Being gay doesn't guarantee a Muslim won't radicalize.

statements like this make me hate the american electorate - so illiterate

Here's a quote from a 2008 interview with Donald Trump Jr about the Trump family's investments in Russia:

Despite a current [Russian] government that projects a ramrod posture, to Trump [Jr] the current leaders even make the scene more scary. Holding back his grin, he said, “It’s so transparent – everything’s so interconnected that it really does not matter what is supposed to happen as what it is they want to happen is ultimately what happens.” He has had multiple deals but he’s open with his partners despite what it is that keeps him up at night has to do with knowing that he has to face the “issues forever including money coming back...or not.

"And in terms of high-end product influx into the US, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."

[quote] If any one thinks these recent immigrants are going to be pro-gay rights and secular, they are deluded.

I hope that they shoot you first, you ignorant racist cunt.

The biggest Trump supporter fools are those that think he is a job creator and his "Dont, Tax The Rich" economic plan will improve the economy and save jobs.

Tie, Shirt, Suit ..... Made in China,INDIA, ETC.

SUCKERS.

Don't play the Trumpet! Don't play the Trumpet!

[quote] Chances of winning PA according to the guys who have called every election correctly in the past 8 years:

[quote] Hillary Clinton 69.9% Donald Trump 30.1%

and the first time in 8 years, they got it wrong

quit bumping this shit, cunt

R97: Are the trolls that desperate that they're trying to use 2016 to make it look like he's winning now? WOW. Very, very, very sad.

Michael Jackson died.

Just to see political stuff posted from before the horror of election night 2016 kind of depresses me.

I honestly never in a million years thought this fucking hateful imbecile could possibly be my president. I want to go back to that.

On the other hand, R98, it's a good reminder to not be overconfident. VOTE

Of course it will be close. According to this source, Biden is ahead in Ohio! Trump campaigned there yesterday - this close to the election and in a state he carried by 8 points just four years ago.

R100 = Boris, still dreaming, holding his penis and campaigning against Hillary in 2016.

The Deplorable longing to live in the past is going to undo them once again!

Wow. Desperate trolling.

R103 Um, I supported Hillary enthusiastically (no "lesser of 2 evils" or "I'm holding my nose" bullshit, I actually liked her and supported her), so your post makes zero sense.

Oh wait, this is Datalounge. "Pointless bitchery" IS the point. Never mind, carry on.

Polls are meaningless. We must VOTE him out of office. If you live in a battleground state, it doesnt matter what your neighbor is doing -- register to vote NOW, make sure that you get to the polls for early voting and/or deliver your mail-in ballot to the local office of your election authority.

Trump is still a piece pf shit. I have cursed him again tonight.

[quote] to the local office of your election authority.

You sound like a brochure.

Fake news like all propaganda that has Joe Biden getting anything less than 100% of the vote.