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Poll: Trump leads GOP field but falters against Clinton

USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll

July 14, 2015

Who's your first choice for the Republican nomination?

Donald Trump = 17% Jeb Bush = 14% Scott Walker = 8% Ted Cruz = 6% Marco Rubio = 5% Ben Carson = 4% Rand Paul = 4% Mike Huckabee = 4% Chris Christie = 3%

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has surged to the top of a crowded Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In the nationwide survey, Trump leads at 17% and former Florida governor Jeb Bush is second at 14%, the only competitors who reach double digits. Trump's edge, which is within the poll's margin of error, is one more sign that his ​harsh rhetoric about immigration and toward his rivals has struck a chord with some voters.

"He's got some backbone," Steve Fusaro, 59, of San Clemente, Calif., who was among those polled, said approvingly in a follow-up interview. "We need a businessman."

But Buxton McGuckin, 19, of Columbia, S.C., who supports Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, expresses alarm at the potential repercussions of Trump's words. "I know he's a conservative and Republican but I mean ... the (stuff) that comes out of his mouth," the audio engineer says.

Trump has gained 6 percentage points since the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll taken in June; Bush's support has stayed steady.

The survey of 1,000 adults, taken by landline and cellphone Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample of 349 likely Republican primary and caucus voters has an error margin of +/-5.25 points.

Trump's strengths and his weaknesses are on display.

While he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic nominee. Bush, the strongest candidate against Clinton, lags by four points nationwide, 46%-42%. Trump trails by 17 points, 51%-34%.

That's a wider margin than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (down 6 points), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (8 points), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (9 points), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (10 points) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (13 points).

Nearly half of all those surveyed, 48%, say Trump's comments about illegal immigrants, including characterizing Mexicans as rapists and drug dealers, matter a lot to their vote. Just 15% say the comments make them more likely to support him; 48% say they make them less likely.

"We've seen Donald Trump make it to the top, but the question is can he stay on top," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In 2012, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain led the GOP primary field briefly but only to fade."

When the first and second choices of Republicans are combined — an indication of how things might sort out when the field eventually gets smaller — Trump does a bit less well. Bush is at 14% and Trump at 13%. Rubio and Walker are supported by 10%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 6% and Carson by 5%.

"I haven't decided which of the several thousand candidates we have who I'm supporting," jokes William Turville, 68, of Reedville, Va. At this point, he says he could see himself backing Bush, Rubio or Walker.

"Bush has some good ideas, (but) I think his problem is he's painted with the Bush last name," Turville says. Some voters "were not happy with his older brother, (and) there's still stigma from his father."

"I think we've had enough Bushes in there," says Charlene Birdwell, 70, of Texarkana, Texas.

Even Stacey Richardson, 43, of Gretna, Neb., calls Bush her first choice but volunteers Trump's name as well. "I like the way he tells the truth," she says.

Trump is the best-known of the Republican contenders. Just 2% of those surveyed have never heard of him, compared with 27% who have never heard of Walker and 16% who haven't heard of Rubio. But Trump also is viewed the most negatively of all.

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by Anonymousreply 100May 8, 2021 9:00 PM

Big deranged fish in a small, evaporating pond.

by Anonymousreply 1July 14, 2015 8:05 PM

Please please please please please please please please please please please make Trump get the Republican nomination!

Hell, even if that doesn't happen, can he at least stay in the race until the very end? I'm stocking up on popcorn for the debates!

by Anonymousreply 2July 14, 2015 8:42 PM

I'm thinking we're lucky if he makes it past the first debate.

But I will be watching, with popcorn.

by Anonymousreply 3July 14, 2015 8:52 PM

[quote]While he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Trump does the worst against Hillary of any of the GOP candidates.

That's going to get used against him at some point by his opponents.

by Anonymousreply 4July 14, 2015 8:56 PM

Oh, the rest of the pack will turn on him full force, which is likely to fluster him and make him say more evil nonsense.

What fun.

by Anonymousreply 5July 14, 2015 8:58 PM

What does it say about a field of 15 GOP contenders when Donald Trump is the frontrunner?

by Anonymousreply 6July 14, 2015 9:03 PM

Better Trump who has not chance than someone like Jeb Bush or Kasich who could actually gain some momentum amongst uncommitted and centrist voters AND have GOP backing.

by Anonymousreply 7July 14, 2015 9:03 PM

Bush is running second right now, so he'll probably be the frontrunner once the Trump balloon pops.

by Anonymousreply 8July 14, 2015 9:12 PM

The crap thing is that Trump is saner than Bush

by Anonymousreply 9July 14, 2015 9:24 PM

If Trump's popularity doesn't drop, I wonder if the Republicans will make a deal with him to get him out of the way. Maybe the Vice-Presidency?

by Anonymousreply 10July 14, 2015 9:38 PM

The man who said that Mexican immigrants are rapists and drug dealers is leading the GOP candidates. LOL! Well at least they're being honest.

by Anonymousreply 11July 14, 2015 9:39 PM

No, R10.

That would be almost as bad.

The Republican establishment will want him out of the way completely by the time of the election.

by Anonymousreply 12July 14, 2015 9:40 PM

The fact he is in a leading position tells so much about GOP and their supporters.

by Anonymousreply 13July 14, 2015 9:44 PM

They can't have him around during the general.

He will make so many toxic & explosive statements that he will drive away the centrist voters they need.

by Anonymousreply 14July 14, 2015 9:49 PM

Good let it be TRUMP then Clinton for the WIN

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by Anonymousreply 15July 15, 2015 2:58 AM

What a sad affair when somebody like Trump is even considered to be fit for doing the job of the president. I thought after Sarah Palin the US was smarter.

by Anonymousreply 16July 15, 2015 3:09 AM

Jon Stewart: “Thank you, Donald Trump, for making my last six weeks my best six weeks. He is putting me in some kind of comedy hospice, where all I’m getting is just straight morphine.”

by Anonymousreply 17July 15, 2015 3:09 AM

My older brother likes Trump. I'll encourage him, saying Trump is "plain spoken."

by Anonymousreply 18July 15, 2015 3:19 AM

"5 Reasons Donald Trump Is The Republican Party"

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by Anonymousreply 19July 15, 2015 3:31 AM

Trumps job is to push the Republican field further to the right on immigration.

by Anonymousreply 20July 15, 2015 3:33 AM

[quote] Please please please please please please please please please please please make Trump get the Republican nomination!

I said the same thing about George W Bush. I was positive this moron who'd skipped out of his cushy National Guard post and killed over 120 people as governor (including one he mercilessly mocked) would never be president.

Be careful what you wish for.

by Anonymousreply 21July 15, 2015 3:39 AM

HE'S WINNING! WINNING I TELL YOU! Charlie Sheen.

The debate starts with the introductions. Then John Ellis tries to lay into The Donald.

At that point Trump turns to Bush and says "I see you brought El Chapo in drag tonight!" while pointing at Columba Bush.

I for one can't wait for the fireworks.

by Anonymousreply 22July 15, 2015 3:49 AM

The amusing thing is that if trump is the nominee, every one of the other candidates and Fox news will speak of him as if he is the greatest leader since Reagan, and the lemmings will follow.

by Anonymousreply 23July 15, 2015 4:02 AM

[quote] Trumps job is to push the Republican field further to the right on immigration.

Isn't that every Republicans job?

by Anonymousreply 24July 15, 2015 4:03 AM

Trump tweets patriotic photo including not American GIs but Nazi-era Waffen SS soldiers. Blame (naturally) falls on a lowly intern.

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by Anonymousreply 25July 15, 2015 5:08 AM

Yes!

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by Anonymousreply 26July 15, 2015 6:02 AM

[quote]If Trump's popularity doesn't drop, I wonder if the Republicans will make a deal with him to get him out of the way. Maybe the Vice-Presidency?

You think if he still is popular, with his ego, he'd settle for second best? No fucking way.

by Anonymousreply 27July 15, 2015 6:13 AM

At what point does he have to release his financials if he wants to continue?

by Anonymousreply 28July 15, 2015 8:05 AM

Ok I looked at the poll in the OPs link, there's somthing wrong with it. They surveyed 1000 adults, and only 349 were GOP? So, they're saying that 66% were Democrats? That doesn't even make sense on a national level. The poll is massively skewed in favor of Dems.

by Anonymousreply 29July 15, 2015 8:47 AM

R21, people always bring up George W. Bush, but they forget that:

1. He didn't even win the popular vote in 2000 and only "won" because of shenanigans in Florida

2. Bush was the son of a President and had the last name.

by Anonymousreply 30July 15, 2015 10:00 AM

Trump will never release his tax returns. He's not really funning for President-- this is just to bolster his brand

by Anonymousreply 31July 15, 2015 11:16 AM

Funny when lemmings chant, "We need a businessman as President!"

We need another GWB or Carter?

by Anonymousreply 32July 15, 2015 11:17 AM

[quote]He's not really funning for President-- this is just to bolster his brand

Bu that's the curious thing -- he's NOT bolstering his brand.

His prejudiced comments have damaged his business & entertainment connections.

Several t.v. networks & companies have pulled the plug on him.

by Anonymousreply 33July 15, 2015 11:23 AM

Don't get your hopes up my friends. Herman Cain was a front runner for a while too. The idiot Repubs always do this honeymoon thing with the loudest clown in the car.

by Anonymousreply 34July 15, 2015 11:29 AM

R34, you're right about that, BUT Trump is a much bigger name than Cain was, so he may be able to carry this out for longer.

Plus, I'm not sure if you can predict who the nominee will be at this point. Too many candidates.

by Anonymousreply 35July 15, 2015 11:41 AM

Clinton will not be the nominee.

by Anonymousreply 36July 15, 2015 11:44 AM

Where is our beloved Poll Troll?

by Anonymousreply 37July 15, 2015 12:07 PM

Nate Silver says she likely will be, R36.

by Anonymousreply 38July 15, 2015 12:42 PM

Clinton broke the very rules she memo-ed her staff about. She endangered our entire country by performing State businesses from a private server in her home. An ambassador died on her watch and she "lost" all emails and files associated with it. Her brother made a fortune off a US aid package to Haiti.

What is wrong with people?

by Anonymousreply 39July 15, 2015 1:00 PM

[quote]he's NOT bolstering his brand.

Yes, he is. And, nobody cares about his comments. He's being Donald Trump.

by Anonymousreply 40July 15, 2015 1:15 PM

We have seen this with Rob Ford in Toronto. You could not debate the issues with him (Ford) because yelled over everyone and got the most attention.

Yelling = drowning others out.

You watch Trump poll numbers will just get stronger.

by Anonymousreply 41July 15, 2015 1:27 PM

R29, 43% of Americans are registered independent, only 23% are Republicans. That's stunning. I'd suggest OP's linked poll is weighted by those likely to vote, and 34.9% (349) is their proper contribution to the total.

by Anonymousreply 42July 15, 2015 1:37 PM

How do I find out what I am registered as?

by Anonymousreply 43July 15, 2015 1:41 PM

Have a link.

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by Anonymousreply 44July 15, 2015 1:41 PM

Watch him ride the anti latino wave all the way to the White House

by Anonymousreply 45July 15, 2015 2:26 PM

Not necessarily the White House but new TV deals and networks.

by Anonymousreply 46July 15, 2015 3:09 PM

R39, I wish I could insert an eyeroll here.

by Anonymousreply 47July 15, 2015 3:51 PM

Aren't his supporters all white people over 55?

by Anonymousreply 48July 15, 2015 4:47 PM

R47 "Eye-roll"? What is wrong with you? Are you honestly telling me Democrats have NO ONE else to push forward but a woman who might be held on criminal charges, in the near future? Why don't you care that she lied to us? Why?!

by Anonymousreply 49July 15, 2015 4:52 PM

R45 Why do people assume that if someone isn't pro-supremacist of something, that means they are anti, against that something, 100%? If you don't support The KKK or White supremacy groups, does that make you "Anti-White"? If I don't support all the power a group called "The Race" has with this Presidential administration, that doesn't make me "Anti-Latino". Just as people who don't support illegal aliens breaking our laws without consequences are not automatically "anti-immigrant".

The language Marxists are losing. The People are now awake. You can't throw a handful of buzzwords out and silence the conversation anymore, Fascist. Get over it.

by Anonymousreply 50July 15, 2015 4:56 PM

GIVE BERNIE THE NOMINATION! HE'LL DEFEAT HIM!

by Anonymousreply 51July 15, 2015 5:13 PM

r49 will be gone from DL is due time. Trust me.

by Anonymousreply 52July 15, 2015 5:14 PM

Apparently Cruz is eager to set up a meeting with Trump. Always an opportunist he probably wants to be Trumps VP choice if he gets that far.

I actually sometimes wonder if Trump isn't some stealth Democrat.

by Anonymousreply 53July 15, 2015 5:17 PM

R49 yeah the old, "She should be arrested" nonsense. We've already heard that with Obama.

Of course, no one can actually say where she broke the law. Heck, Ken Starr spent millions of taxpayer money looking and found Bupkis.

by Anonymousreply 54July 15, 2015 5:20 PM

R49 what lie did Hillary tell?

by Anonymousreply 55July 15, 2015 5:21 PM

R52 We've been here all along, Duchess. We've just put-up with the SJW, totalitarian Marxists because we were trying to be polite but they overplayed their hand and now lots of people are pushing back.

Hillary Clinton is not inevitable. She mocks us with her arrogance. Democrats have taken certain people's votes for granted for far, too long.

by Anonymousreply 56July 15, 2015 5:23 PM

R55 That she wasn't performing State work from home, using a private email for State business at home. This, while she sent out a memo to her staff about how against the rules it is to do so. She's a liar.

by Anonymousreply 57July 15, 2015 5:24 PM

People who use "Marxist" are RWNJ's and Fox viewers.

by Anonymousreply 58July 15, 2015 5:25 PM

R54 Why are you defending her?

by Anonymousreply 59July 15, 2015 5:25 PM

R58 Or educated people who actually took political science, sociology and philosophy courses.

by Anonymousreply 60July 15, 2015 5:26 PM

The anti-Hillary loon is off his meds again. lol.

by Anonymousreply 61July 15, 2015 5:26 PM

Trump will slide down in the polls. These noisy upstarts always do.

by Anonymousreply 62July 15, 2015 5:26 PM

Yes, I took some of those too R60 and I still stand by my comment.

by Anonymousreply 63July 15, 2015 5:27 PM

R63 It's not my fault you received such a shabby education. The SJW tactics are systematic. These idiots didn't think of their protest chants and "Rules for Radicals" bullshit themselves.

by Anonymousreply 64July 15, 2015 5:31 PM

R61 Heaven forbid Presidential candidates actually go through vetting. Mylanta, what is this primitive World coming to?

by Anonymousreply 65July 15, 2015 5:33 PM

R62 "Noisy upstarts"? Are you the long, lost descendant of the love child of Marie Antoinette?

by Anonymousreply 66July 15, 2015 5:34 PM

Oh, wow -- off topic, but I've just experienced the power of the "ignore" button for the first time: I don't see r49, r59 or r60, so I guess I've ignored that troll.

But it's almost too bad, since I can't see what other posters are responding to.

Not that I want to in this case, but does anyone know how I could go about "unignoring" someone if, say, I accidentally hit that button?

by Anonymousreply 67July 15, 2015 5:38 PM

Never mind -- I just realized that by hovering over my own citations of the post ("r49", etc) I can see the text of the ignored posts. So no need to unignore!

by Anonymousreply 68July 15, 2015 5:40 PM

R57, I'm sure she even told her secretary that she looked good in that yellow dress. Yes, Hillary IS a liar!!!

by Anonymousreply 69July 15, 2015 5:44 PM

R67 "The Ignore Button" could be a euphemism for Hillary's entire campaign. Just ignore the Public, then peek-in on criticism and address conversations only when having complete, one-sided control, rather than just having a polite debate over differing views.

All Hillary has that sets her apart from most, other candidates is a vagina and she's going to sell that thing from one side of the country to the other. Thankfully, she has a ball-less base of supporters who blinders on, who celebrate their own lack of testosterone just as much.

by Anonymousreply 70July 15, 2015 5:45 PM

R70 "...[with] blinders on..."

by Anonymousreply 71July 15, 2015 5:46 PM

You actually don't have a clue what kind of education I received but yours apparently led you down the path of rightwing nuttery.

by Anonymousreply 72July 15, 2015 5:50 PM

Again. Clinton WILL. NOT. be the nominee for the Democrats.

Despite what Nate Silver thinks.

by Anonymousreply 73July 15, 2015 5:53 PM

And just who are YOU missy R73?

Lordy some of you are as unhinged as... the Donald.

by Anonymousreply 74July 15, 2015 6:21 PM

r73 Nate Silver did not "think." He crunched up numbers. That's what he does for a living and he's pretty good at it. However, anything can happen from now until the Iowa caucuses. I don't know what party or ideology you belong to, but as someone who is a Democrat and also a realist, I certainly hope she is the nominee. Both the House and Senate is dominated by the GOP. Next President will be nominating possibly 3 Supreme Court Justices, most certainly Kennedy and Ginsburg (and Breyer). If a Jeb Bush becomes President, the GOP will hold 2 branches of the gov't. He will nominate young Conservative Justices to the Supreme Court. If that is so, Conservatives/GOP will hold all 3 branches of government. That is the reality we are looking at. Depending on your ideology, maybe you think it's a good thing. I say it's the beginning of the end.

by Anonymousreply 75July 15, 2015 6:23 PM

Hillary 2016

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by Anonymousreply 76July 15, 2015 6:40 PM

Trump has filed his financial disclosure form, claiming he's worth about $10 billion.

by Anonymousreply 77July 15, 2015 6:57 PM

Jose Andres already pulled out of is restaurant for the Trump Hotel in DC. So, there are repercussions. Trump is a clown and will hang himself.

by Anonymousreply 78July 15, 2015 8:12 PM

As well he should, R78. No decent person should have anything to do with this pos.

You just know the assholes on here who defend him would have a fit if he said anything like this about gay people and how many are pedophiles. "Not all; some gays are good people."

And I think anyone who use "freedom of speech" needs a punch in the face because IT ISN'T, you dimwitted speed bumps.

by Anonymousreply 79July 15, 2015 8:41 PM

uses*

by Anonymousreply 80July 15, 2015 8:42 PM

Dear Anti-Hillary Trolls:

RedState is calling you! Nate was not wrong about Obama winning BOTH elections.

Put down the pipe and stay out of the basement!

Sincerely, sane Americans.

PS that medication is not working. Talk to your doctor immediately.

by Anonymousreply 81July 15, 2015 11:16 PM

If there were a Clinton-Trump debate, by the end she won't know whether to shit or go blind.

by Anonymousreply 82July 15, 2015 11:19 PM

2016 ~ Hillary

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by Anonymousreply 83July 16, 2015 6:13 PM

You post that a lot.

by Anonymousreply 84July 16, 2015 6:26 PM

Sexism will drive women to the polls to vote for Clinton alone. You know one of these fuckers is going to make a sexist remark against her.

"Make my day, dicks." - HRC

by Anonymousreply 85July 16, 2015 10:44 PM

I hope Kasich doesn't run. If he does I hope he gets lost in the Republican field.

by Anonymousreply 86July 16, 2015 10:50 PM

I think most candidates have gotten lost in the Republican field.

The only 2 that seem to be staying alive are Trump & Bush.

For example, does anyone even know that Pataki is running?

by Anonymousreply 87July 17, 2015 1:16 AM

[quote] I hope Kasich doesn't run.

He's already running.

[quote] If he does I hope he gets lost in the Republican field.

I doubt he'll be any more than a modest blip in a field of 15. I'll be a bit surprised if he even makes it into the first debate.

by Anonymousreply 88July 17, 2015 4:56 PM

They apparently asked a larger group of all voters, for the general election chances, and smaller subsets of party-identified ones regarding the nomination.

by Anonymousreply 89July 17, 2015 5:02 PM

TRUMP will be gone by the fall!

by Anonymousreply 90July 18, 2015 2:01 AM

I’m shocked to see that Jeb!’s numbers were so high.

by Anonymousreply 91May 8, 2021 5:03 PM

Um, okay.....from 2015? Who cares?

by Anonymousreply 92May 8, 2021 5:35 PM

Defacturd really needs to be twilight zoned into a Grindr date with Mark Latunski.

by Anonymousreply 93May 8, 2021 5:45 PM

R91 🙄

by Anonymousreply 94May 8, 2021 7:04 PM

Can someone drag R19 outside and shoot him? Thanks.

by Anonymousreply 95May 8, 2021 7:19 PM

Trump could have easily been beaten by his GOP rivals, if scheming Hillary Clinton and her allies in the media hadn’t decided Trump would be the easiest to beat and did everything they could to secure the nomination for him.

by Anonymousreply 96May 8, 2021 7:25 PM

Could someone explain to me why this particular troll bumps 2015 threads that are not relevant anymore? Even for a troll it seems stupid.

by Anonymousreply 97May 8, 2021 7:32 PM

Fucking DeJecto. He needs to drink himself to death ASAP.

by Anonymousreply 98May 8, 2021 7:38 PM

This is SO old news.

by Anonymousreply 99May 8, 2021 8:56 PM

Muriel, instead of using our subscriptions to add an edit feature, I’m ok with your using it to hire John Wick to find Defacturd and feed her a bullet sandwich.

by Anonymousreply 100May 8, 2021 9:00 PM
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