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How long until Tesla stock crashes?

Anyone else own a Tesla? Fucking hype over reality.

The shocking financial status of this company cannot be overstated, with a $1B+ yearly burn rate. Zero profit, and no credible plan to ever become profitable.

When will the carnage begin?

--Anonymous
replies 31Dec 4, 2017 4:39 PM +00:00

Are the cars themselves actually good?

--Anonymous
replies 1Dec 4, 2017 4:42 PM +00:00

OP smells like a short getting burned. Yum.

--Anonymous
replies 2Dec 4, 2017 4:43 PM +00:00

It may not crash; it could explode!

--Anonymous
replies 3Dec 4, 2017 5:01 PM +00:00

I like Tesla. Tesla stock, I mean.

--Anonymous
replies 4Dec 4, 2017 5:08 PM +00:00

Let me guess: OP is the resident Idiot Libertarian Troll who has started multiple threads on Tesla and Elon Musk in the past?

Tesla fanbois – and Musk himself – will tell you all about the virtues of his electric cars. They are sleek and speedy. This is true. But they are also expensive (the least expensive model, the ...
the DataLounge
--Anonymous
replies 5Dec 4, 2017 5:22 PM +00:00

Well if the Westport/Stamford/Greenwich area is any indication, Tesla is doing a booming business. They're everywhere

--Anonymous
replies 6Dec 4, 2017 5:26 PM +00:00

They’re ready to release self-driving long-distance tractor trailer trucks.

It was on CBS Sunday, Sunday.

--Anonymous
replies 7Dec 4, 2017 5:36 PM +00:00

They delivered 345 cars of their new “downscale” model in November (estimated- Unlike traditional carmakers they don’t release their monthly sales until their quarterly report) while Chevy Volt sold nearly 3,000.

Not short yet. But I’ve got the cash poised for a 90% drop.

--Anonymous
replies 8Dec 4, 2017 5:37 PM +00:00

R7

The reporting by the group of physicist studying the tesla semi is hysterical.

When math nerds are explaining why your radically inefficient and oversized batteries are incapable of doing what you claim they can do, you should probably listen.

--Anonymous
replies 9Dec 4, 2017 5:39 PM +00:00

Amazon didn’t make a profit for over a decade, IIRC, so they have time.

--Anonymous
replies 10Dec 4, 2017 5:40 PM +00:00
Idiot Libertarian

Redundant

--Anonymous
replies 11Dec 4, 2017 5:40 PM +00:00

Tesla – which lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down 18% from a year ago.

There are all kinds of interesting aspects about this.

One: 3,590 vehicles amounts to a market share of only 0.26%, of the 1,393,010 new cars and trucks sold in the US in November. Porsche outsold Tesla by 55% (5,555 new vehicles).

Two: Tesla doesn’t report monthly deliveries. It wants to play with the big boys, but it doesn’t want people to know on a monthly basis just how crummy and by comparison inconsequential its US sales numbers are. Opaque and dedicated to hype, it refuses to disclose how many vehicles it delivered that month in the US. So the industry is estimating Tesla’s monthly US sales.

Tesla discloses unit sales data in its quarterly earnings reports, long after everyone has already forgotten about the months in which they occurred.

Three: So how are Model 3 sales doing? Since Tesla doesn’t disclose its monthly deliveries in the US, the industry is guessing. The assembly line still isn’t working. “Manufacturing bottlenecks,” as Tesla calls it, and “manufacturing hell,” as Elon Musk calls it, rule the day.

In Q3, Tesla delivered 220 handmade Model 3’s. In October, it delivered about 145 handmade units. In November, the assembly line still wasn’t assembling cars. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered a whopping 345 units in November.

Four: This is where hype goes to die. In February 2017, Tesla hyped these Model 3 production numbers for 2017:

Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.

November is solidly in the fourth quarter. 5,000 vehicles per week would mean over 20,000 a month. OK, this is November and not December, so maybe 4,000 a week for a total of 16,000. We got 345.

Even if the estimate of 345 is off by 100 units up or down, it doesn’t even matter. And December isn’t looking much better. Because there is still no mass-produced Model 3.

--Anonymous
replies 12Dec 4, 2017 5:47 PM +00:00

Five: The bestselling Model S isn’t best-selling anymore. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered 1,335 Model S in the US. This was far outpaced by the humble Model-3-killer the Chevy Bolt. GM sold 2,987 Bolts in November. Tesla is also estimated to have delivered 1,875 Model X SUVs in the US. It took the Model S and the Model X combined to beat the humble Bolt.

Six: The unglamorous Model-3-killer is number one. The Chevy Bolt faces no “production bottlenecks” and no “manufacturing hell.” It was rolled out gradually, starting in October 2016 in California and Oregon, with other states being added to the distribution plan over time. By August 2017, the Bolt was available in all states. By September, 2,632 Bolts were sold in the US; in October 2,781; and in November 2,987.

The Bolt became the best-selling EV in October and retained that crown in November. Nothing was even close. November was the ninth month in a row of rising sales, as it should be for a brand-new vehicle line. GM has sold 20,070 Bolts so far this year.

Seven: But the Bolt is just a flyspeck for GM. It’s something to build the foundation for a larger shift to EVs. It represented just 1.2% of GM’s total deliveries in the US in November. EVs are still just a niche product. And yet, even this flyspeck crushed every Tesla model without fanfare.

Every automaker is preparing a lineup of EVs. Unlike Tesla, they have their supply chains down pat, and they know how to get their assembly lines to function, and they know how to mass-produce vehicles. There are already about two dozen EV models on the market in the US. Like GM, these automakers are just using their EVs to lay the groundwork for the broader shift.

Tesla has used two years of hype surrounding the Model 3 as a way to boost its share price. This allows it to raise many more billions by selling more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible investors, and by selling more debt to institutional investors who believe that Tesla’s ability to sell still more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible retail investors will in effect guarantee the junk-rated debt they just bought. Few companies have ever been able to perform that scheme at this masterful level.

--Tesla owners are suckers!
replies 13Dec 4, 2017 5:48 PM +00:00

OP, this is exactly what they said about Amazon back in the day.

--Anonymous
replies 14Dec 4, 2017 5:50 PM +00:00

R11 = fascist

--Anonymous
replies 15Dec 4, 2017 5:54 PM +00:00

op = Bill Ackman trying to move on.

--Anonymous
replies 16Dec 4, 2017 5:55 PM +00:00

R14

Amazon has a functional product.

Tesla has expensive toys.

--Anonymous
replies 17Dec 4, 2017 5:58 PM +00:00

R17, I have to pipe-in here. Tesla has expensive toys until they get their manufacturing line optimized. Then they will have an electric Car. Do you still have a horse?

--Anonymous
replies 18Dec 4, 2017 6:01 PM +00:00

R17, Amazon was built from the ground up. Initially it only sold books.

--Anonymous
replies 19Dec 4, 2017 6:16 PM +00:00
Idiot Libertarian
Redundant

This one is a special kind of stupid, R11. He's been around here for over a decade, posting some of the dumbest drivel you've ever seen. Even for Libertarians, he's in a class by himself.

--Anonymous
replies 20Dec 4, 2017 6:32 PM +00:00
op = Bill Ackman trying to move on.

Nah, it's just our usual resident Idiot Libertarian Troll, who's got some kind of hate on for Musk. Nobody knows why but he's posted several threads on this over the past year or so.

His reply at r12, by the way, was quoting the linked article. He never has been able to figure out that you need to cite what you're copying and pasting.

Tesla stood out as automakers in the US reported monthly auto-sales numbers on Friday.
Business Insider
--Anonymous
replies 21Dec 4, 2017 6:35 PM +00:00

R19

Are you retarded?

Comparing AMZN to TSLA is laughable

--Anonymous
replies 22Dec 4, 2017 7:30 PM +00:00
[R17], Amazon was built from the ground up. Initially it only sold books.

Now it sells everything.

--Anonymous
replies 23Dec 4, 2017 7:39 PM +00:00

How old are you, r22?

--Anonymous
replies 24Dec 4, 2017 8:04 PM +00:00

The stock market isn't going to crash in Trump's first term. If he chooses not to run again or loses it will definitely crash after 2021 and it may crash during his second term.

--Anonymous
replies 25Dec 4, 2017 10:28 PM +00:00

If he chooses not to run?.. You lost all credibility on that.

--Anonymous
replies 26Dec 4, 2017 11:14 PM +00:00

Tesla stock is up 2.25% today. I know a day doesn’t mean much, but that a big bump, nonetheless.

--Anonymous
replies 27Dec 6, 2017 10:17 AM +00:00

OP, brought to you by the fossil fuel industry.

By mid-century electric cars will be dominate. Almost everyone realizes this. And thanks to Trump and company, China will own this industry.

--Anonymous
replies 28Dec 6, 2017 10:24 AM +00:00

Tesla and Amazon are both executing long-term strategic plans explained by their founding CEOs in earnings calls and shareholder letters. Tesla can withstand years of P&L “failure” while it builds the future of energy and transport infrastructure.

--Anonymous
replies 29Dec 6, 2017 2:23 PM +00:00

R29

Only as long as people keep lending Tesla money. A quarter billion per quarter in cash burn is unsustainable.

They have enough money for eight more months of operations support they need to bag investors for another round.

--Anonymous
replies 30Dec 6, 2017 3:33 PM +00:00

Tesla had a window with the Model 3 to be the star of the EV market, but that time period is closing quickly. The Chevy Bolt is nearing sales of 3,000 units per month, and the next generation Leaf is now being produced in the US with dealerships getting them as early as next month. Early demand was strong, with over 9,000 orders in Europe and Japan in less than two months, which is significant because the Model 3 won't get to those markets for quite some time. I'm not even sure Tesla knows when certain deliveries are going to happen, because as the image below shows, the Model 3 page shows very conflicting information. They failed to update the part below "12-18 months", so how can someone who is reserving a vehicle for delivery a year or more out expect to get it in mid 2018? The only way that happens if is demand completely falls off a cliff.

So is the month of December going to be Tesla's last stand? While it appears regular customers are about to start receiving deliveries, will it be enough progress when Tesla announces its quarterly figures in the first few days of January? With the Bolt selling strong, the Leaf about to go on sale in the US, and a variety of other competitors not too far off, Tesla's window appears to be closing. With cobalt prices and interest rates rising, Tesla's profitability and cash flow concerns will only be heightened.

--Anonymous
replies 31Dec 7, 2017 7:02 PM +00:00