New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden beating Trump

I forget: How reliable is this poll?

So, in other words, Biden continues to lose support:

"In a hypothetical 2024 general election presidential matchup, President Joe Biden holds a small lead over former President Donald Trump with 49 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 45 percent supporting Trump..."

"This compares to Quinnipiac University's January 31 poll when Biden had 50 percent support and Trump had 44 percent support."

R2, well aren’t you just a ray of sunshine.

These small moves in a poll mean nothing. Dump is burying himself deeper and deeper into a hole that he will not be able to dig himself out of. Patience, grasshopper.

R3 You're an idiot.

I simply posted what was written in the article posted by OP.

According to Quinnipiac, Biden is losing support.

trump is a chump

r1 2.8 out of 3 stars on 535's pollster ratings site. So, pretty much at the top.

*538's

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Biden's approval rating at 38%.

And what was his approval rating in ‘22, R8, when, against all odds, the predicted red tsunami never materialized?

R9 I have no idea. Look it up.

R4, small moves in month to month polls mean nothing. It especially doesn’t mean anyone is gaining or losing support. And you’re the idiot who doesn’t understand that.

Is it broken down by state? Because we know Biden will win the popular vote as every Dem has done for the past 20 years. Only the electoral vote matters.

Really, R10?! You know his approval ratings were in the tank then, too. But, like now, he & his party benefited from the contrast with the MAGA-dominated Republican Party.

[quote] So, in other words, Biden continues to lose support:

You could be a headline writer for The NY Times.

A lead in February when the campaign against Trump has not even been joined?! A campaign that’s going to be especially brutal?! I like this very much.

R11 I made no comment about the results. None. So what's your problem?

The FACT is Quinnipiac shows a Biden's small lead smaller than it was 3 weeks ago. You're all pretty amusing that reporting that fact irritates you so. It is what it is.

As for me? Let's see what the polls say after the summer. I don't think they mean much right now.

And you can pick and choose the poll you want. While Quinnipiac has Biden's approval rating at 38%, Rasmussen has Biden's approval rating at 42%.

[quote]Because we know Biden will win the popular vote as every Dem has done for the past 20 years. Only the electoral vote matters.

There's a correlation there – if you win the popular vote by a certain margin, it virtually guarantees that you've also won in the swing states you need. They're not two wholly separate metrics that have nothing to do with each other.

A BFD!

Yes, the money advantage the Biden campaign will be a big deal. And for all the caterwauling about Biden bleeding support, his is still a much more unified party.

Gallup February 23 2024

R20, the emphasis on presidential job approval ratings is so old school politics. See midterm elections, 2022.

Presidential job approval ratings mean nothing.

Until the ratings are high for the one you're rooting for.

As in: "New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden beating Trump"

Grampa continues gaffing.

R22, there IS a difference between job approval ratings & polls.

[quote] there IS a difference between job approval ratings & polls.

That distinction doesn't do much to assist Joe

2022 must be a lifetime away for some of our posters. But it was then that the MAGA candidates all underperformed their polling numbers. One would think that Republicans would've been sobered by those results, but, instead, have doubled-down on the craziness.

[quote]2022 must be a lifetime away for some of our posters.But it was then that the MAGA candidates all underperformed their polling numbers.

Who here is disagreeing with that? It's a fact.

But this is the year 2024. This is not the midterms.

You really think this administration is ignoring those poll numbers?

R27, both Dem and Repukes have access to very expensive polling that is much more accurate that the public polls, even Quinnipac. They know exactly where they stand, and I’m confident they’ll implement plans accordingly.

[quote]both Dem and Repukes have access to very expensive polling that is much more accurate that the public polls, even Quinnipac

Well, let's hope Biden's "very expensive" polling shows him ahead.

R29, whatever it shows, it’s highly accurate. And yes, it’s private polling that the parties spend a lot of money to buy. Because it’s highly accurate.

[quote]Because it’s highly accurate.

More accurate than the widely accessible polling organizations? Please show proof of that, and how their results have differed from those organizations. Thanks in advance.

R31, I don’t know what to tell you. This is generally known. The parties don’t release that data, but they pay enormous amounts of money for it.I remember Obama’s campaign manager saying the data went so deep that they could pinpoint actual voters and how they would vote. It’s been discussed in the election threads, but because it’s closely held data, there isn’t much published.

Well, we can rest easy, I'm sure Biden's very expensive 'top-secret' polling shows him doing splendidly.

R33, no one said that. Where did you see that anyone said that? All I said was that this polling (which is very costly) is much more accurate than the public polls. And that I was sure that whatever the polling says, the Biden campaign will strategize accordingly.

[quote] They know exactly where they stand, and I’m confident they’ll implement plans accordingly.

You can count on that

This is why it’s necessary to look at all the major polls, to see if a poll like Quinnipiac‘s February poll is an outlier.

Spoiler alert: like in January, the Quinnipiac is an outlier. Whether the organization has done this on purpose or just bad methodology or execution, it tarnished the credibility of the whole polling industry.

r35 r36

Really r35? Can you tell me what position Robbie Mook holds in Biden’s re-election campaign? Thought so.

Yes, admittedly, Biden’s poll numbers are not great, outside of Quinnipiac — and as our resident Biden scold is happy to remind us, even in that poll, he dropped a point from last month.

But, we seem to be overlooking the exit polls of caucus-goers and primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, the most committed of all voters. If we look at tRump versus his rivals, he’s doing okay obviously, since he’s won all three contests. But, he’s not doing great. He’s essentially the GQP incumbent. In Iowa, the three rivals got about 47 percent of the caucus attendees. In New Hampshire, Nikki took 43 percent of the vote and in South Carolina she took about 40 percent. But quite significantly, of the opposition voters, a sizable portion of them say they will not vote for tRump in the general election, especially if he is a convicted felon, which he may be. Even assuming that some of them wind up voting for him anyway, that’s still a lot of votes that he needs to make up.

A long way of saying that February’s poll numbers are not going to automatically translate into November votes.

[quote] In Iowa, the three rivals got about 47 percent of the caucus attendees. In New Hampshire, Nikki took 43 percent of the vote and in South Carolina she took about 40 percent. But quite significantly, of the opposition voters, a sizable portion of them say they will not vote for tRump in the general election, especially if he is a convicted felon, which he may be. Even assuming that some of them wind up voting for him anyway, that’s still a lot of votes that he needs to make up. A long way of saying that February’s poll numbers are not going to automatically translate into November votes.

I see people stating that the Trump percentages in the primaries must mean something, but I don’t see them going as far as stating it’s going to affect the outcome in those states in November. Is anyone predicting that Trump will now lose Iowa and South Carolina in November? He won’t. (We already know that he’s going to lose New Hampshire against Biden.) The primary percentages aren’t going to make red states suddenly become blue at the end of the year. The election will still hinge on the outcome in the battleground states.

R40, the supposition is that there are a number of Republicans in the battleground states that will follow the same trend. And it does seem to be a trend.

R41, the “trend” in the battleground states is the poll results showing Trump still beating Biden. For anyone wanting Biden to win, they should be hoping that trend reverses.

[quote] I see people stating that the Trump percentages in the primaries must mean something, but I don’t see them going as far as stating it’s going to affect the outcome in those states in November. Is anyone predicting that Trump will now lose Iowa and South Carolina in November?

No. And that was not at all my suggestion in posting those numbers. He’s not in danger of losing South Carolina or Iowa. But, as R41 explained, if the results from two red states are any indication, his support in other places, such as swing states, may be softer than the current polls that you reference, R41. By Super Tuesday we’ll know about Michigan and Minnesota.

[quote]Whether the organization has done this on purpose or just bad methodology or execution, it tarnished the credibility of the whole polling industry.

What credibility?

R42 That’s why I am scared for Biden because he cannot lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania. Philly folks, was 2016 a fluke? I mean yes because Penn hadn’t voted red since the 80 but I mean today where does it stand. Is there enough anti Trump passion to outnumber all those white people in exurbs and rural areas that came out last time.

R45, Philly and, just as important, its suburbs, remain blue. All of the local governments are run by Dems. I’m sure some idiot like the yard sign troll might say otherwise.

And, Pennsylvania elected Democratic governor Josh Shapiro in 2022, where he won his election 56 to 42 over the Rethug. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but it’s better to have a popular governor on your team who can help guide and direct the statewide campaign.

I don’t pay much attention to approval numbers.

Republican candidates and their followers are now so extreme that they are terrifying. These cave people, their horrible values and backward thinking, and the actual damage they’ve already done (see Dobbs decision, 2022) should be enough to get Democrats and Independents to the polls to vote Blue.

One of the reasons, among several, that tRump wants Nikki to drop out is to mask over the schism that her voters demonstrate. It’ll be curious to see the anti-tRump vote in Rethug primaries after she drops out.

^ Yeah, we essentially have two incumbents running, with one of them not nearly as popular with his own party. That never bodes well in the general.

[quote]Yeah, we essentially have two incumbents running, with one of them not nearly as popular with his own party.

You are talking about Donald, right?

Dude just got 66% of GOP primary voters in SC. That's...not great. (if you can point to Biden getting 66% of primary voters in any recent primaries please do so.)

Stop confusing real voting numbers with the US press wishcasting for Biden to just go away.

[quote] You are talking about Donald, right?

I am.

[quote] if you can point to Biden getting 66% of primary voters in any recent primaries please do so.

The only one thus far is New Hampshire where he received 63.9% as a write-in candidate, which is pretty extraordinary on its own. That resulted from him dropping out of the first-in-the nation primary. That vote total won’t likely be repeated, absent something unexpected occurring. In Nevada it was 89.4 %, and in South Carolina it was 96.2%.

Understood, R50. I was getting confused in this thread.

I went to the Kroger tonight. Dozen eggs 2.59. Half Gallon Milk 2.29. Biden ain't winning in November.

The Air Force isn't burning themselves alive over Trump

This is hilarious from Italian TV. It's not just Americans recognizing Biden's decline. It shows the comical aspects of it, but also the seriousness of the consequences.

Sorry, R55/56.

It’s clear that you’re terrified, r59. You must be, to propose that anonymous posters block other anonymous posters on a little gossip board. Those of us who would like Biden to step away from his campaign are terrified too, at least I am. Biden is playing dice with the future of this country and everybody in it, and many of us are not best pleased.

R55: please talk to your trollfarm supervisor. "I went to the Piggly-Wiggly" would make the statement sound much more "American".

I don't know if it's the same poster or not, but I've blocked a number of responses here. And I've used that option only VERY sparingly.

And I should add that I'm also R58, so I haven't blocked R55/56. Yet.

Biden supporters are like Trump. They will never accept responsibility for their bad judgment. It will always be someone else’s fault. If you tell them something they don’t want to hear, they say you need to be blocked. If Biden is criticized in the media, it’s because everyone is against him. This is Trumpian behavior. They hate Trump because he’s exactly like them. And I include Biden himself. Biden has autocratic and authoritarian characteristics; not as pronounced as Trump, but extremely narcissistic, bordering on delusional. An 82 year old man shouldn’t be running for President.

Remember when Democrats laughed at Trump for saying “only I can fix it” at the RNC?

How is Biden any different?

There is so much wrong in R65’s screed that it is difficult to know where to start deconstructing all the errors. Oops. Wait. No, my bad. Not supposed to criticize Biden’s critics or else we’re allegedly tRumpian. 🙄 But here are a few glaring examples.

[quote] If you tell them something they don’t want to hear, they say you need to be blocked.

OK that’s one person. It is disingenuous to suggest that behavior applies to all Biden supporters. You paint with too broad a brush.

[quote] If Biden is criticized in the media, it’s because everyone is against him.

No, not accurate. Criticism of Biden is fair and legitimate. But so is criticism of the media. It has now been fairly well documented how frequently the NYTimes and other mainstream media outlets are following a sad but familiar pattern: harping on negative stories about Biden’s age (or in 2016 Hillary’s emails), while leaving largely untouched (or at best “lightly touched”) tRump’s many negatives. Over the past weekend, tRump made numerous shocking statements that if Biden had said them they would be talking about it ad nauseam for weeks. The media is fair game and so is pointing out what appears to be their apparent bias.

[quote] Biden has autocratic and authoritarian characteristics; not as pronounced as Trump, but extremely narcissistic, bordering on delusional. An 82 year old man shouldn’t be running for President. Remember when Democrats laughed at Trump for saying “only I can fix it” at the RNC? How is Biden any different?

He beat tRump once and has done an outstanding job as President. As Newsom noted yesterday on Meet the Press, the list of Biden’s accomplishments is extremely impressive. But beyond that, the time to find an alternative was many months ago, not eight months out. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire were presented with a choice and did not select that option. He beat Dean Phillips in New Hampshire through a write-in campaign, which is difficult to do.

We get it. You didn’t want to Biden to run for reelection. And apparently you’re going to remind us of this fact frequently from now to November.

[quote] OK that’s one person. It is disingenuous to suggest that behavior applies to all Biden supporters

No, it is not one person. It is multiple people. I know because I mute them on FF. His supporters behave like Trumpists. Anything other than praise for Biden gets you branded a Russian spy. These people are authoritarians, they worship conformity and the status quo. That is the very definition of conservatism. You are not allowed to disagree with them on anything. Any flaw you point out is always someone else’s fault. Bad polling, disloyal media, low-informed voters, ungrateful Hispanic or Blacks, lazy youth, deluded Leftists, and nothing but praise for Dear Leader. A lifelong Centrist is now a vanguard Liberal. Terrible cabinet appointments are now the best, most qualified people. Concerns about mental acuity are always deflected with “…but what about Trump?” They are so obsessed with Trump they have turned Biden into Trump. Shriveled old men who should be in nursing homes rebranded as strongmen.

R6, 538 isn’t to be trusted, per DL.

[quote]if you can point to Biden getting 66% of primary voters in any recent primaries please do so.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in Michigan, given that some of the state's Arab American and Muslim leaders are loudly urging their communities to vote against him in the primary. The only others on the Dem ballot are Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson.

I don't have a problem with them voicing their displeasure in the primary this way, but if they sit out the actual election -- or Allah forbid, vote for Trump -- they have a potential to swing the state. And we'll have a new entry into the Cut One's Nose to Spite One's Face Hall of Fame.

So Biden is a cunning supervillain who's also functionally mentally impaired?

Got it, Federalist Society Talking Point Generator.

[quote] No, it is not one person. It is multiple people. I know [bold] because I mute them on FF. [/bold]

Ah, muting, so your own version of blocking. Ironic, considering your complaint.

OK, maybe it’s two or three. But is not all people who support Biden. You get to FF only a very few posters over a several day period. Then the grey-out disappears. And, unless you’ve done exhaustive research into the number of separate, different people making pro-Biden posts over multiple days, you aren’t able to say with any degree of certainty what the number is.

[quote] Terrible cabinet appointments are now the best, most qualified people.

Eh. Merrick Garland should never have been the AG. Technically qualified, but the wrong person for the job. I’ve known him for 30 years and like him personally, but he was not the right pick. It should have been Sally Yates or Doug Jones.

[quote]Ah, muting, so your own version of blocking. Ironic, considering your complaint.

Of course I mute them, they are morons. BORIS BORIS BORIS BORIS BORIS BORIS. But I don’t tell anyone else to mute them. I don’t mute people capable of making rational arguments.

Look at the cunt at R70, you disagree with him, you’re a member of the Federalist Society or Bohemian Grove.

These are the people who gravitate towards Biden - paranoid, intolerant and intellectual hermits. In other words, deplorables.

^ These are the people who gravitate towards Trump - paranoid, intolerant and intellectual hermits. In other words, deplorable.

And clearly not capable of understanding irony .

Let's talk about Nikki's 40% in SC. Many of those will not end-up voting for Trump.

Probably why he didn't mention her in his 'victory' speech.

[quote] So Biden is a cunning supervillain who's also functionally mentally impaired? Got it, Federalist Society Talking Point Generator.

For years that sort of thing has been a standard woke talking point about Trump. And before that about Bush.

Even Reagan

[quote]No, it is not one person. It is multiple people. I know because I mute them on FF. His supporters behave like Trumpists. Anything other than praise for Biden gets you branded a Russian spy. These people are authoritarians, they worship conformity and the status quo. That is the very definition of conservatism. You are not allowed to disagree with them on anything. Any flaw you point out is always someone else’s fault. Bad polling, disloyal media, low-informed voters, ungrateful Hispanic or Blacks, lazy youth, deluded Leftists, and nothing but praise for Dear Leader. A lifelong Centrist is now a vanguard Liberal. Terrible cabinet appointments are now the best, most qualified people. Concerns about mental acuity are always deflected with “…but what about Trump?” They are so obsessed with Trump they have turned Biden into Trump. Shriveled old men who should be in nursing homes rebranded as strongmen.

So true.

[quote] [R74] [R75] [R76] [R77]

= 374

[r82]

BIDEN R 82

NYTimes March 2, 2024:

"Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds"

"The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency."

"With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters."

"About as many Democratic primary voters said Mr. Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as said he should be — with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old."

NYTimes March 2, 2024:

"Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds"

"The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency."

"With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters."

"About as many Democratic primary voters said Mr. Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as said he should be — with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old."

It’s okay, because Biden was always going to drop out.

Did that particular university establish itself as a political authority on elections? I’m not joking. I’m curious about how such a small educational institution is considered in a political poll that can affect the entire country.

See R86 is a conservative but not an authoritarian, because he only expresses skepticism about external facts, not outright dismissal of them.

[quote]Did that particular university establish itself as a political authority on elections?

Yes.

[quote]I’m curious about how such a small educational institution is considered in a political poll that can affect the entire country.

It's quite simple, actually – you just do one particular thing over and over again until you become really good at it, to the point of mastery. Specialisation, it's called. Other poli sci schools focus on other areas of society and are better at polling those.

[quote]I’m curious about how such a small educational institution is considered in a political poll that can affect the entire country.

I think you mean "reflect" and not "affect". The poll does not affect the entire country. I'm not sure how it would be affecting anyone, other than their mood.

The latest Quinnipiac poll is out today:

Mar 27, 2024 Biden 48% Trump 45%

Feb 21, 2024 Biden 49% Trump 45%

Jan 31, 2024 Biden 50% Trump 44%

Polls are showing Biden improving in the battleground states. Democrats who had hoped for an alternative candidate are dealing with the reality of the now-binary choice & are starting to come back home. I've always been bullish on Biden & am even more so now.

Unlike Mitt Romney, Trump has never broken 47%. And he won't this year, either.

R91

“Jaws music”

Although I'd like this election to be about democracy in this country & freedom abroad, coupled with a(nother) repudiation of Trump. it may just be another abortion referendum. That'll be okay, too.

I don't care if it's about dog shit, R94. I just want Trump gone forever.

[quote]Polls are showing Biden improving in the battleground states. Democrats who had hoped for an alternative candidate are dealing with the reality of the now-binary choice & are starting to come back home. I've always been bullish on Biden & am even more so now.

What happens with Kennedy in the mix:

Mark Halperin was on Michael Smerconish's show today saying that RFK may not even make it to November. That, apart from his policy positions, the coming negative attacks on his personal life might well undo him.

^Why might he not make it to November?

Halperin seemed to be suggesting the level & extent of the personal attacks might be too much for RFK, Jr. to withstand.

So we get four more years of squealing that the election was stolen. This is starting to feel like science fiction.

Every time you walk down a hall and take a turn, there’s this obese, babbling lunatic screaming about corrupt officials and cheaters.

[quote]Halperin seemed to be suggesting the level & extent of the personal attacks might be too much for RFK, Jr. to withstand.

So far, personal attacks have had little affect on Trump, if we go by what the polls are telling us.

[quote] So we get four more years of squealing that the election was stolen.

Better that than a Trump restoration. Even better if Trump's hold on the party was such that, if he lost, he'd run again in '28. After he served his prison sentence.

[quote] So far, personal attacks have had little affect on Trump, if we go by what the polls are telling us.

Kennedy isn't Trump. He doesn't have the latter's messianic hold on his voters. And no one is as shameless as Trump.

Bull shit-YOU STILL HAVE TO VOTE!