Trump campaign ad spend shows tiny two state path to victory

Notice the NC spending disparity...NC could nullify a Trump win in PA and GA. Trumps campaign is facing a possible Sophie's Choice. Maybe they shouldn't be funneling all that donor money directly into Don's pocket...

It also shows that they have limited funds to shore up/maintain support in the other states. I can see those voters who were previously disengaged and uninformed politically and who first registered to vote in 2016 expressly for the purpose of voting for Trump, reverting back to disengagement. No ads and to rallies to stimulate them? Meh. An invisible cult leader is ineffective.

i sure as fuck hope PA doesn't vote for tumrp

Notice too that even with Trump's 2 state strategy, in those two states Harris is matching him evenly in spending. Then clobbering him everywhere else. This is what it means when you're "killing it" in fundraising.

They're so effective in fundraising that the campaign is transferring $25M to down ballot races. There's a new thread about it.

Between the shit he tried to pull there in 2020 and Stacey Abrams, GA is not happening for the orange turd.

r5

Living in PA, all I ever see on tv are Trump ads. I'm not sure where Kamala is spending that money, R4.

Depends on where you live, Sylvia. Different media markets and all...

[quote] Notice too that even with Trump's 2 state strategy, in those two states Harris is matching him evenly in spending. Then clobbering him everywhere else. This is what it means when you're "killing it" in fundraising.

So what happened to all that Adelson, Mellon and other billionaire dark money ? I'm assuming already stashed away somewhere in the Bahamas.

Also Trump may not get that 1 split electoral vote in ME, too.

[quote]They are placing almost all their money into Georgia and Pennsylvania

I know the media constantly troll us with the mythical "undecided voter", but with these two ...

I would think money would be far better spent on get out the vote campaigns. Get busses to senior homes, etc. (as legal by state). I don't think ad buys are changing anybody's minds at this point.

Fasten your safety belts. Trump's about to LOSE it.

If this is the real GQP strategy, it's weird. PA and GA are competitive and if they need both to win, that's not likely. Have they installed election deniers in PA? Will the activists in GA not manage to get out the vote like they did twice in 2020? Does Donold have a ground game?

Dotard's strategy isn't to win the popular vote, and only come close enough in the Electoral College that one state holding out on certification throws it to the House. Republicans can't win the popular vote, and they only win the EC by cheating with interference by the SCOTUS.

Meanwhile, Kamala's strategy involves multiple states with a robust GOTV effort, enthusiasm akin to 2008/Obama, excellent fundraising, volunteers, exploding minority voter registration everywhere but focused in all of the battleground states with Black and latina women registering at three times the rate as they did 4 years ago, and the big mo. This model ignores the fact that NC is trending D, and even FL is in play. I've even heard rumblings that there may be a shocker as the Rs have ignored states that they feel are safe, and if this is as close as it looks (which I don't believe it is, but let's play a long), even a flip in a small state (like WV) could be determinative. Finally, look at the Senate numbers. Ds are ahead by substantial margins in almost all of the battleground states.

Nevertheless, we're 64 days out, ten points down, and have to fight like hell. Have you checked [italic]your[/italic] voter registration today?

[QUOTE]Does Donold have a ground game?

No. PA 12:1 and GA looks worse. This tweet is a month old, but I doubt they've improved much.

Also — PA is not so corruptible. Dem Governor Josh Shapiro and his administration who will be ON IT in fighting back against any shenanigans. Trump will have to win it fair and square.

Winning...

I'm in the suburbs of Philly.

I think Trump is spending too much time in shitholes like Butler, Pennsylvania.

By no means is PA in the bag for Trump.

i hope that you are right

I'm thinking Harris might be competitive in Florida, with abortion on the ballot. If she wins there it's game over.

Florida will only turn if Trump totally collapses. But that is possible.

R6 Except he’s been leading in most of the polls in Georgia.

1) There are a lot of vets and active duty military in North Carolina. I would bet that the Arlington stunt was planned specifically to court them but then the campaign doesn't have enough wits to understand how it has backfired and now HURTS them in NC.

2) This is the GOP candidate for Governor who is down by double digits. It would take a huge amount of ticket splitting to defeat him and somehow not go for Harris/Walz at the same time.

[quote] According to public records obtained from Guilford County Court, the wife of Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson was sued by Tarheel Triad Girl Scouts over “money owed” in Guilford County Small Claims Court in 2003–and the Girl Scouts won...

[quote] The magistrate found in favor of the Girl Scouts and tacked on fees and damages as permitted by state law on returned checks for a grand total of $3,486.03

R17, ugh. That little move really hurts Harris's chances in GA. These fringe candidates always get a fringe of votes, and in a tight race like this it's going to help Trump at least 1%, and possibly more like 3%.

Florida will not turn, the fix has been in there since forever. They are also “fixing” GA. PA has not been fully corrupted. What happens if he wins GA but not PA? Does it not automatically then go to the House because neither crosses 270? Terrifying. For real. But I do believe we can win even though it’s all so overwhelming. We just must stop their cheating and corruption, we all must stick together.

PA, MI, and WI usually all vote the same way. If he loses one, he’s losing all three.

Usually true R26 except PA is really closer than WI/MI, Walz helps more with WI/MI, and Trump is spending massive amounts in PA only. This time might be different. It is not impossible that Harris wins Arizona yet loses Pennsylvania.

R23 - Is his wife one of those people who he believes people need to be put to death for their misdeeds?

R26, if you look at the past, you’re right. But the corruption and rape of our institutions has never been this bad in the past. PA remains in play due to corruption. Years ago at the beginning of Biden’s term, Chris Matthews and James Carville rightly predicted that all roads will lead to PA in 2024. Their vast lifetime of studying politics, Carville running campaigns all over the country and globe, and Matthews being an OG Philly boy who understands that state better than any other broadcaster, will be shown to be correct. All roads lead to PA. Keep your eyes focused there, though we have countless other small fires to manage at the same time. What a fucking battle! Kill these roaches now, please God.

Trump Team seems to be giving up a fight, hoping they win those two states and cheat if they don’t. Republicans would really start a civil war if Harris wins but they cheat to get Trump elected through the Supreme Court and/or House.

I don’t think he can cheat in PA. Shapiro is on top of things, and the State House is Dem-controlled, although Senate is R.

Dump is doing terribly with suburban women. And Harris should be able to increase black turnout in Pittsburgh and Philly beyond what Biden did in 2020.

[quote] [R23] - Is his wife one of those people who he believes people need to be put to death for their misdeeds?

He better hope she isn't

sorry ^^misread that....but you get the point...

Wow!

One less than I got from the Supremer Dudes and that one filthy-liar cunt.

You all DO understand what my boys - and that new one filthy-liar cunt - are going to give me, right?

Do I need to paint you guys a fucking picture?

[QUOTE]—GW

Gwen Walz? Or are you or I missing something?

[quote]Living in PA, all I ever see on tv are Trump ads. I'm not sure where Kamala is spending that money,

I'm seeing plenty of ads for both sides in PA. I mute all of them, but they're on.

I am confused by R34 also, and I follow this stuff fairly closely. Who is GW?

They should spend some in OH too. It could possibly be winnable.

Though had Biden responded more quickly to the train derailment, the Dems might have more power there.

[quote] Tim_Walz is scheduled to visit Lancaster on Wednesday, marking the first visit to the county this year by either of the two major party presidential tickets.

[…]

[quote] CBS News confirms Vice President Harris will travel to Pittsburgh, PA on Thursday to prepare for the presidential debate

Just short of endorsing Kamala, but it may give permission for a lot of ambivalent Trump voters to stay home.

$7m million behind in a metro of almost 1 million people in a red state. 🤣

Also Omaha is more than half of Nebraskas population.

I will say I’m getting nervous. I think If Trump does win this will be the biggest and most egregious popular vote/electoral college disparity in American history. Everyone vote. Even if you live in California and New York. I feel like she will win but I just have this feeling. Vote no matter if you live in Maryland, Oregon or Washington state. We must get rid of the electoral college within the next 8 years.

They probably should have just let Walz run the ticket and have KH remain as VP. He’s the one doing everything. Sike na I’m just playing. When is she going to do a one on one interview.

Harris/Walz 204

R40, Pat Toomey was one of seven GOP Senators who voted to convict during Dump’s impeachment. It’s no surprise he will not vote for Dump in this election.

R46 Why would they even post that. The dumb cunt said he isn’t voting for her either. Is that an official Twitter handle.

MARY!

R8 Do you watch nothing but police procedurals and true crime all day.

R12 I agree with you. Plus I’m a say it: The undecided voter died somewhere between 2012-2015. Obviously some undecideds still exist but not mathematically. We have become too polarized as a nation. We don’t respect each on an ideological level. The key is to get out the voter that is apolitical or maybe the correct word is nonpolitical but that is apart of your cultural tribe. The undecided voter as phenomenon is about alive as Jimmy Carter.

donOLD has no events scheduled this week.

So he's sending a surrogate to Pennsylvania

R45 Kamala has been looking tired recently. I think if it's smart if she lays low and focuses on debate prep then comes out energized for the debate and not tired from rallies.

R52 Good point. The debate serving as her big Oscar moment. And then she can do a one on one after that and discuss how she obliterated Trump. Anyone know the ratings or the CNN interview?

The Republicans are trying to steal the election by denying ppls right to vote. Their is no difference between Maga Republicans and old school Republicans. They are cut from the same cloth. Call him Trump, George Bush 1 or 2, Ronald Reagan, they all have wanted to deny our right to exist and be merry.

The biggest myth is that illegal immigrants vote. You can’t even get regular Americans to vote. You think some undocumented person tryna make a living is going to try get caught up by “the man” by voting or even registering to vote. Make it make sense. Most of them do not even know the difference between Republican and Democrat. They just know America = green. I will make lost of money doing home improvement, have my own company some day, and my kids will go to college.

Lots*. I spelled lots lost. My crazy ass lol

That's my worry, R54 - that some states will block the results no matter what.

[quote] “Because we are here in North Carolina, I think it is crucially important for people to recognize, not only is what I just said about the danger that Trump poses…something that should prevent people from voting for him.

[quote] I don't believe that we have the luxury of writing in candidates names, particularly in swing states. And as a conservative, as someone who believes in and cares about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this. And because of the danger that, that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I'll be voting for Kamala Harris.”