By repudiating Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that said women have a constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy, the Supreme Court has freed states to set their own abortion policies. But the impact of the new leeway allowed by the Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization will vary widely across the country. While severe restrictions will be enacted or take effect in many states, abortion will remain legal in most.
Thirteen states have "trigger" bans that are designed to take effect after Roe is overturned. Some of those states, plus others, have enacted laws that were enjoined based on Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the 1992 decision that reaffirmed Roe's "central holding." Several states do not currently have bans but are expected to enact them in response to Dobbs, which overturned both of those precedents.
Some states never repealed pre-Roe bans. Politico notes that "court action will likely be necessary to determine whether states' pre-Roe abortion bans can take effect or enjoined laws restricting access to the procedure can be lifted, a process legal experts anticipate could take weeks to months."
Existing statutes range from bans like the Mississippi law upheld in Dobbs, which prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of gestation, to nearly complete prohibitions like the trigger laws. In between are "heartbeat" laws that prohibit abortion after fetal cardiac activity can be detected, which typically happens around six weeks into a pregnancy, when women may not even realize they are pregnant.
In terms of practical impact, the cutoff makes a huge difference. Even states that generally allow abortion often restrict it after "viability," the point at which a fetus can survive outside the womb. The dividing line for viability is generally placed around 24 weeks of gestation. In 2019, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), just 1 percent of abortions in the United States were performed at 21 weeks or later. Only 4 percent were performed after 15 weeks. But 57 percent were performed after six weeks, and some of the rest also would be covered by the "heartbeat" laws.
Most states are unlikely to ban abortion. In some, abortion rights are protected by statute, by judicial interpretations of state constitutions, or both. In others, there is not enough political support to enact new restrictions.
Here is a state-by-state rundown of what we can expect now that the Supreme Court has decided the Constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion after all. Red indicates the 22 states that are certain or likely to soon impose or start enforcing new restrictions on abortion, ranging from moderate to severe. Green indicates the 23 states where abortion will remain broadly legal. Blue indicates the five states where new restrictions are unlikely in the short term but are possible in the longer term, depending on electoral outcomes or judicial decisions
(see link to continue state by state )