What Dem senate seats are vulnerable?

The Senate is a 50/50 shot, but the House will definitely go Republican, in a big way.

If SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade, the Senate will be the last of the Republicans concerns.

I wish, R2, but I don’t think there’s a reputable Democratic strategist who agrees with you.

In a wave election, there’s no telling how many seemingly safe Democratic seats could be lost. The popular Republican Arizona governor, who previously said he was not going to run against Mark Kelly’s bid for a full 6-year term, is now reconsidering, likely making that seat very much at risk. And Ron Johnson is believed to have decided to run for re-election because he’s persuaded that this will be a good year for republicans.

Rob Portman's seat will flip Dem ( Tim Ryan) in Ohio

In this cycle, R5?! I wouldn't bet on it, especially in what has become a pretty reliably red state.

Mark Kelly will likely win in AZ, but not a slam dunk. Warnock in GA is vulnerable. Both are more at risk simply because of the new anti-voting laws. Cortez Masto and Hassan could also be in trouble.

Miss Lindsee plans to campaign crisscross the country for 2022 GQP candidates on her "I am Trump's chief sycophant and election results meddler" tour. The Oath Keeps, Proud Boys, and Three Percenters, will go wild seeing and hearing her.

Redistricting so far

[ quote] In this cycle, [R5]?! I wouldn't bet on it, especially in what has become a pretty reliably red state

Tim Ryan's entire career has been built on working for the common man, a theme that appeals to working Republicans as well as Democrats. His opponents will come from a plethora of Trump-loving loons who will savage each other and spend money to discredit their opponents. Sherrod Brown was elected to the Senate over several candidates who are running again for various offices:

Brown defeated two-term Republican incumbent Mike DeWine ( running for governor) in the 2006 U.S. Senate election and was reelected in 2012, defeating state treasurer Josh Mandel ( running for Senate), and in 2018, defeating U.S. representative Jim Renacci( running for governor)

Mandel is currently leading for the Repub nomination. His nomination would assure a Ryan win.

I think Ryan will win in Ohio, and Toomey’s seat in PA will flip Blue.

Sherrod Brown is Ohio's Joe Manchin, R10. And I think it's more likely that Jane Timken gets the GQP nom.

Sherrod Brown is as far from Joe Manchin as Trump is from Pete.

The only thing the Democrats have going for them and the amount of hit they will take in Congress is there is still this whole year to hope things get better even a little bit better. I just paid $3.01 for gas but the supermarket shelves are still quite empty.

I think the Democrats could still hold onto the Senate but it will be tough. Its going to be up to Democrats to get out and vote as I vote in every election why can't all Democrats. It would be nice if a Democrat could win in a red state but I would hope that they could win in Pennsylvania and hold onto Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire. Not sure they can hold onto Georgia.

Likely GOP, but not as much as of a done deal as the House. The only realistic chance for a pickup would be Pennsylvania, against tough holds in AZ, GA, NV and NH. As has been said before, Ohio is gone for the Dems, and is almost certainly gone in an off-year election when the Dems are the party in power. Maybe if a creep like Mandel gets through, but even then it's still a massive uphill fight for Tim Ryan.

Not to get too far off topic, but when we talk about the elections, and the House in particular, instead of bizarre fantasies where the Dems hold it (spoiler alert - not a chance in hell of that happening, only question is how big the GOP margin is), we should try to look on the bright side. Once the GOP takes all/part of the legislature, they actually have to DO SOMETHING. And that will give Joe Biden something to run against in '24.

Absolute best case scenario for the Dems - the GOP takes the House, but by a relatively small margin so they will be in the flip of what the Dems are today. Then the crazies like Boebert and MTG will have to be listened to, and they likely won't get anything done. Meanwhile the Dems will be able to beat them over the head with it. A huge margin for the GOP, and unfortunately they will be able to ram shit through like impeaching Biden (but not remove him from office for those who failed high school civics).

And to add on to what others have said, there is absolutely no evidence thus far that overturning Roe is going to have any sort of major effect. I think it's a combination of the fact that the states that will ban abortion have already de facto banned it already, with only a few clinics being allowed to operate, and the cold hard fact that abortion isn't nearly as popular as feminists and the left think it is.

The Party of the President almost always loses seats in the House and Senate at Mid-term elections, then unlike most Republicans, Democrats tend to only show up in Presidential years. It isn't inevitable but likely unfortunately.

[quote]and the cold hard fact that abortion isn't nearly as popular as feminists and the left think it is.

Abortion is popular. Maybe not in places like Texas, but the majority of the country doesn’t want Roe vs Wade overturned. Whether it’s an issue that will get people to turn out to vote isn’t clear.

The potential political potency of abortion rests wholly on how Democrats handle this issue. If they merely seek to codify the protections afforded by Roe & its progeny, there would be great political appeal. On the other hand, if they promote abortion at will legislation they will not be on the side of most voters.

R10 I guess the old saying is you know the words but not the tune.

In anything short of a neutral year/mixed bag year, Tim Ryan has no shot. A monkey could have that R nomination and beat him in Ohio.

Mandel might be beatable, r22. He's probably the only one. Rumor has it (and you know how that goes) that both Mandel and his ex-wife wanted their divorce records sealed for very good reasons. If he ends up being the nominee, maybe some real dirt will come out.

[quote] Sherrod Brown is as far from Joe Manchin as Trump is from Pete.

Politically, yes, but they're both unicorns in the sense that they're the only Democrats who could get elected statewide in their respective states.

R21: Cut the crap you concern troll. There is no such thing as abortion on demand and no Democrat has ever run for office on such a platform.

R17: No, the Senate does not follow that cycle. There are many midterms in which the Presidents party gains seats. 2018 saw the Republicans gain 2 Senate seats while they lost 40 seats in the House.

[quote] There is no such thing as abortion on demand and no Democrat has ever run for office on such a platform.

Of course, R21. Post-Roe, all the electoral energy on this issue has been on the anti-abortion side, with their concentrated efforts to narrow the reach of the constitutional protection. Once Roe is repealed, every state, every voter, will have to grapple with the extent to which abortion's should be legal. In this free-for-all, it's not unreasonable to think abortion-rights advocates, like the pro-gun lobby, will be resistant to any legislative encroachments.

R26: Shut up, concern troll.

R27: Shut up, fascist.

I would love to see the Dems hold onto the Senate just so Biden can continue for those 2 years to continue to fill up the courts and a possible supreme court seat or seats.

r23 Even dirt wont help against Mandel under most circumstances. Races are nationalized now and Ohio is a red state. And Dems are less likely to flip a red to purple state than R's are likely to flip a blue to purple state. What we saw in Virginia and New Jersey in 2021 is far less likely to occur in the reverse at any point in time.

The overturning of Roe would be great for fundraising and to energize a new generation of female politicians to get involved. Wouldn't help Dems much. Dems are often pro choice and pro gun control, but they dont care like the other side does and it doesnt motivate them to vote. Wish it did

I probably live in a liberal bubble, but I think Kennedy (R, La) could be vulnerable if a name candidate like Mitch Landrieu would run.

R30 Democrats are a flawed Party that put too much importance on the presidency. The DNC also pushes a prefer candidate over another in their primary and selection process further enabling the problems the country has. They know that their voters won't go and vote in their own primaries and the ones that do show up tend to be more conservative leaning or in love with someone in power for decades with little to show for it other than being good fundraisers for their own elections. I don't see this changing anytime soon, in the US we will continue having the issues we do until the Moderates (DNC) stop moving to the right in an effort to keep up with the conniving, vengeful, vindictive and more corrupt Republican party.

Bump

r32 He would lose by 10-20 points. And you only need to lose by 1 vote to lose.

[quote] I probably live in a liberal bubble, but I think Kennedy (R, La) could be vulnerable if a name candidate like Mitch Landrieu would run.

If anything, Mitch'ss thinking of running for president in '24, not the Senate this year. Any smart Democrat with national ambitions will want to avoid - if possible - running this year. Unless they're running in the bluest of states.

True

Not so sure about Mandel. The Plain Dealer had some scathing remarks.

More on Mandel from the Washington Post. More news outlets should follow:

Ohio’s biggest newspaper is taking an unusual tack toward covering falsehoods from a U.S. Senate candidate: It doesn’t plan to do so at all.

The Plain Dealer in Cleveland said its journalists intend to ignore inaccurate statements from Republican Josh Mandel that they consider to be ploys for attention.

“Mandel is pretty much a nobody right now, a nobody begging for people to notice his Tweets a year ahead of the Senate primary,” Chris Quinn, the Plain Dealer’s editor, wrote in an opinion piece published Saturday. “Just because he makes outrageous, dangerous statements doesn’t mean it is news.”

Quinn’s decision is a marked departure from conventional journalistic wisdom that politicians’ statements inherently deserve coverage and that every story has at least two sides. Newsrooms across the country have increasingly reevaluated that approach because of President Donald Trump’s more than 30,000 false or misleading claims, many of which dominated the news cycle and helped him amass a following.

In Ohio, Quinn argued that Mandel is different from most political candidates the Plain Dealer has covered. He’s shown a willingness to “say just about anything if it means getting his name in the news,” Quinn wrote — a gambit that he characterized as unprecedented at the state level.

Mandel promoted the baseless theory that widespread voter fraud cost Trump reelection. He repeatedly stated incorrectly in 2017 that Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) worked a tax break for private-jet owners into a bill. During Mandel’s first run for Senate in 2012, PolitiFact Ohio named him its “Pants on Fire” champion for his inaccurate statements.

Quinn said that politicians have learned to game news outlets’ attraction to controversy and that journalists have a responsibility to not report on “specious and ridiculous” claims as if they are valid viewpoints.

“We’ve kind of fallen down to the conclusion that that’s not really our responsibility,” he said. “Our responsibility is to seek the truth.”