“You hear it here first, [he’s the] shadow front-runner,” texted one of Mike Pence’s longtime friends after the former vice president’s November appearance at the University of Iowa. Pence had just delivered a speech that may come to be seen as a pivotal moment should he cement what already seems obvious: He’s running for president, and doing so regardless of who his opponents might be.
Pence, who’s known as much for his anti-LGBTQ positions as his awkward stiffness, has been loosening up—an observation that, this side of New Year’s Day, mere months from midterm elections, has those close to him betting on a bid. As he worked the room of students in the critical early-voting state late last year, he came across as confident, at ease, even funny—albeit in a dry, Mike Pence-y way.
After delivering the equivalent of a stump speech touting his work in the White House, he moved on to a question-and-answer session with students, loosening his grip on the podium and engaging with them directly. He opened up about why he hadn’t joined the military like many in his family, telling a rare anecdote about his father. One student accused Pence of certifying Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump merely to further his own presidential ambitions: “My question is, what is the name of the person who told you to buck President Trump’s plan and certify the votes?”
“James Madison,” Pence replied, pausing for effect.
His performance barely registered amid the swirl of speculation over whether Trump and Biden will face off again in 2024. But allies and supporters saw a man coming out of his shell after close to two decades of testing the waters—someone who’s finally embracing his own style as a candidate. “I definitely have noticed a change where he’s more comfortable being himself,” said Alyssa Farah, Pence’s former spokeswoman. Added one longtime Indiana Republican, “He set his compass, and now [he] has a path to follow.”
Until now, following that path has been all but impossible. For Pence, whose office declined multiple requests for comment for this article, surviving Trump, literally and figuratively, meant keeping his head down and doing his job. For a long time, the conventional wisdom among Republicans has been that Trump ended Pence’s political career on January 6, convincing his die-hard base that Pence was the Benedict Arnold of their revolution.