Why hasn’t China invaded Taiwan yet?

Taiwan would fight back - they’d lose in the end, but not without inflicting significant damage on the invading mainlanders.

And a war would cause tremendous economic damage. No one wants that - least of all China, whose economy is already shaky.

They're not a militarily aggressive country. They're not interested in that, really. They aren't going to invade. There are other ways of retaking a degree of control.

Agree with r1: an invasion of Taiwan would automatically make China an international pariah and have very negative economic implications for them.

why would they fight? I thought Taiwan wants to unify with China?

According to Rand, the US needs it to happen in 2025 or before. After that, and US will be outmatched in the region, even with allies.

They have a very long-term perspective. Even with popular pressure. It's not going to happen. Taiwan has a lot of problems, and China offers solutions. The DPP is just a blip.

There's no rush. Time is on China's side. In a few decades their economy will be three times the size of the US, and their market by far the largest in the world (it's already the largest now). Eventually they'll simply "buy" Taiwan back with KMT and business support.

The longer China waits, the better. Taiwan is edging towards decline anyway.

After the shining example of Hong Kong why would they not want to rejoin with us?

Um, if they did invade the West would do absolutely NOTHING. Maybe some sanctions and strongly worded disapproval but do you really think all those western corporations would want a war? We live in a corporate plutocracy -none of those cunts want to see their profit margins shrink.

I agree with r10 which is why I don’t get why China doesn’t just do it. Hong Kong and Macau have become just like every other Chinese city and the US is powerless to do anything about it. If China wants Taiwan they could just take it. So maybe they don’t really want it?

NIXON: Let us turn our talk towards Taiwan,

Viet Nam, and the problems there, Japan...

MAO: Save that for the Premier! My

Business is philosophy.

A lot of China-sympathizers like R7 posting here, either that ir they’re ignorant about history and how military operates today if there’s a war in that region. A few members of my family are former/ retired US military, a couple of them pretty well-connected and high up the chain. I also have family in Taiwan on my mother’s side.

Taiwan has never belonged to communist China. It was an unofficial province of imperial China before it was given away to Japan. If anything, if Japan wants to invade Taiwan on the grounds that the sovereign island nation is a part of Japan, it’d have more of a claim than communist China.

Second, we don’t even need a conventional war with China. China has a subpar navy and if it wants to invade Taiwan by crossing the straits then it’ll be easily stopped by US-allied forces putting the hurt on China. Place mines throughout the straits so that every fucking Chinese battleship crossing it gets blown up. Our navy can also place effective blockades on the eastern coast of China. Without shipments from the east coast, China will come to a dead halt within weeks. There won’t be supplies and food to sustain the nation; don’t forget that China cannot feed its own population, it relies on import of food and supplies. Without accessible east coast, their economy will cease operating effectively and within a few months people will be experiencing starvation.

We gave to deal with Chinese aggression sooner rather than later. China will not stop at Taiwan. It would be other nations in the South China Seas region next. China already makes spurious claims of SCS belonging only to China. It is of course bullshit. China is always creating artificial islands in that region, then claiming sovereignty of waters around those islands. It regularly does this to antagonize other nations around SCS like Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and of course Taiwan. They need to be stopped.

Appeasement with China over Taiwan won’t solve longterm problems with China. Remember, Chinese government has recently said it plans to take over the world as part of its longterm goals of domination.

R13 I think they will succeed. Who is going to stop them? Going to war with them would mean no cheap TVs for us. Also, they are all slim and fiercely patriotic whereas we are all fatfucks who are not. They will take the world sooner or later. And it may be for the best? Their government is much more competent than ours.

Taiwan already belongs to China, technically.

[quote]They're not a militarily aggressive country

Sheesh!

Deng Xiaoping (referring to Hong Kong which was then under UK control): I could walk in and take the whole lot this afternoon.

Margaret Thatcher: Yes, you could. There's nothing I could do to stop you. But the eyes of the world would now know what China was like. Everything would leave Hong Kong. You'll have taken prosperity, and you would've suddenly lost a lot.

It's all about face.

Blockading the east coast of China will also bring the world’s economy to a standstill.

R17 thank you for getting the reference I was making in my post. DLers tend to be extremely ignorant about geopolitics and it’s always refreshing when somebody isn’t.

R17 but I think China’s position in the world now is much different than the 80s. People might be upset, but countries that rely on China for everything from electronics to prescription medications really couldn’t do anything about it. Case in point, Hong Kong itself has in effect ceased being governed as a separate entity.

What r5?! No, Taiwan is a an independent country that absolutely does not what to be part of China. C'mon man.

Taiwan is nothing like Hong Kong or Macau. These were always agreed to be part China and were eventually going to return to Chinese rule. Taiwan is a completely independent country, China attempting to conquer would be an invading army trying to claim a country. It would come a steep price.

R21 but historically Taiwan was part of China. Incorporating it under an ostensible “one country, two systems” arrangement would be the same thing as was done in Hong Kong and Macau.

And r21 that is not entirely true. Hong Kong Island and Kowloon and Macau were ceded in perpetuity, only the New Territories were under a lease and eventually supposed to return to China.

China is not after Chinese compatriots living in Taiwan but the DPP separatist government, so it will keep tightening the loose until the DPP makes a fatal mistake. Many people from Taiwan has already moved to the mainland for work or study.

Chinese fighter planes infringing in Taiwan’s airspace is nothing new. What’s new is the number of infractions lately. It is done to provoke Taiwanese military to retaliate by defending its airspace, and the Taiwanese military knows this and thus have been very disciplined in not taking the bait. They know that China is waiting for any retaliatory actions to justify a full on assault or invasion into Taiwan.

R18 No it won’t, and even if it is even a fraction of that, it’d happen much later, after China experiences full effect of its aggression. People would starve and there’d be risk of insurrections.

R20 China’s position in the world today is not exactly rosy either. Its human rights policies are pretty openly condemned. Covid-19 didn’t exactly show the nation in a good light.

R23 you don’t know your history or you’re a shill for China. Communists in China were the insurrection factions, NOT the official government when the plan was being considered; as such there wasn’t any plans set in stone anyway for return to China as you say. Return to what? To a government that wasn’t yet formed back then, because its members were the insurrection? It is precisely due to the wait and see/ no concrete plan for the island, that the official, defeated Nationalist government was able to take over Taiwan. Mainland Chinese who fled to Taiwan after the war make up a small minority of Taiwanese population. Most Taiwanese have ancestry from southern Chinese who migrated to Taiwan in 17th century onward and aboriginal Taiwanese (the natives).

R24 many people is not most people. Most Taiwanese want to remain sovereign nation and vast majority don’t want ti be a province of China even if promised to have self-rule, because they know that’s a lie. Taiwanese people are very liberal in social outlook, there’s a reason why it’s the only Asian nation to legalize gay marriage. Younger Taiwanese especially want no part of China, they may go there to study or work but to become a part of China? Fuck no.

OP is too fat and lazy and stupid to know The Taiwan Relations Act.

They've been too busy suppressing the truth about how they accidently infected the world.

Anonymous hacker group is pretty funny when it comes to trolling China. From the article:

“ Fifth is a meme from December last year, which shows the head of China's CCP Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) imposed on the body of an Apple executive introducing the COVID-19, COVID-19 R, COVID-19 Pro, and COVID-19 Pro Max, instead of the latest iPhone 13 models.”

R25 and what consequences have there been for China for those human rights failures and COVID-19 spread? You’re the one proving my point that China could take the lot with impunity.

.,.,

It would be as simple as Russia taking back Crimea. The whole world is whining but there's nothing they can do about it. The only difference is Crimeans see themselves as Russians and were eager to rejoin, but Taiwanese want no part of China, so it would be a hostile takeover.

Exactly r31

Bless r13. He thinks Taiwan will stand a chance if China decides to invade and that America would go for all-out war just to defend a tiny island that, in grand scheme of things, doesn't matter enough to risk a full-scale war between superpowers.

Gyna!

This is not their first time in the rodeo. Chinese citizens know exactly what/who Xi is. And they are fighting back. They have lost their taste for dictatorship and will kill him themselves.

Taiwan is not a shithole piece of island like Crimea, it's the biggest chip producer in the world. Lin Ling can bark but she cannot bite.

woof woof ruff ruff

Firstly, an opposed amphibious assault is one of the riskiest and most complex of military operations and the Chinese military has no expertise in it. Secondly, for 10 months a year the area around Taiwan is prone to typhoons. This not only adds to the inherent risk but also limits the opportunity to a fairly defined window that makes defence against an assault easier to plan and manage. Thirdly, while the Chinese military has expanded massively their equipment assets including ships and aircraft, these have not been tested in combat and their operations and tactics using the new assets are still developing. The capabilities, while great on paper, are still in development and not expected to mature for some years yet. As an example, while there are plenty of photos of aircraft being launched from Chinese aircraft carriers, there are a lot fewer of aircraft being recovered suggesting that they are nowhere near the capabilities the US Navy has developed in carrier operations over decades. Having a lot of smart, modern kit is of no value if you don’t know how to use it.

I'm sure China owns Taiwan economically just it China owns the US.

Why bother invading?

The population of Taiwan is largely vehemently opposed to the idea. They would be in the position of defending the place with a massive insurgent movement. Not like Hong Kong at all where everyone knew this was coming for several years. Although the Chinese mainlanders don't see it that way, after nearly a century they are not the "same" people.

Obama not stepping in when Russian troops marched into eastern Ukraine and Crimea was a big mistake. Countries like China see this as an example of what they can get away with if they are just aggressively enough.

[quote]I'm sure China owns Taiwan economically just it China owns the US.

No, shithole China doesn't own Taiwan economically or financially. Get your fact straight, Lin Ling. Go eat your bat soup and crispy cat and come back again.

[quote]an invasion of Taiwan would automatically make China an international pariah

Oh please, they killed 500 thousand people when they took Tibet, the western world happily started trade with China, even to a level that we are completely dependent on them now with essential goods.

Did Russia become a pariah after they took Crimea? The EU, or rather Germany rewarded them with a direct Gazprom pipeline.

R33 moron, there won’t be an all-out war, you talk like an idiot who have zero clues about the Taiwan-China history and current situation. You also obviously know nothing about military engagements in that region. You sound like you’d just started reading up on the issue, that or you shill for China.

R29 consequences? Consequences are not just political ones, there are other implications such as reputation around the world, specifically with 1st world nations. But most importantly, by attacking Taiwan, China would be solidifying the relationship between S. Korea and Japan, relations between those two nations aren’t exactly perfect. In fact, S. Korea in recent years have had better relations with China, cozying up to China for economic reasons. But S Korea strategically and politically does not want an omnipotent China in Asia. China can’t bully S. Korea and Japan currently because its livelihood also depends on those two countries. Instead, it bullies Southeast Asian countries. If China tries to take over Taiwan and other SCS nations, the unofficial pact between S. Korea and Japan would ensure that China suffers full consequences. S. Korea has a trade surplus of over $24 billion US dollars with China, it’s China that can’t take the hit economically. Also, the US has a trade surplus with China , over $275 billion in fact.

Taiwan is very important to the global economy, it is the global producer of semiconductors. If you disrupt that supply chain there will be dire consequences the world over.. And again it is a island, that makes things a lot more difficult for China. You can't just walk in.

You guys are all wrong. The reason China hasn't invaded Taiwan is because they don't want to fight the US military. They are more than capable of destroying Taiwan's military and occupying the island, they just don't want to start ww3 over it.

[QUOTE] You can't just walk in.

Didn't stop the Japanese.

R40 no, it wasn’t. Crimea is none of our business and would have been a stupid thing to go to war with a nuclear power over.

Crimea is none of our business the same way Taiwan is none of our business. Except making sure dictatorships don't just annex territory that they have no business occupying.

a lot of Taiwanese have dual US citizenship.

[quote] a lot of Taiwanese have dual US citizenship

That’s right!

[quote]Taiwan is very important to the global economy, it is the global producer of semiconductors.

World Economies: Who should we trade with and who do we need more? China or Taiwan? Tough one.

Imagine starting a nuclear war with Russia over Crimea, especially when something like 84% of Crimeans is celebrating the Russian annexation.

With Covid on the wane (?) China is the next big freakout. Can't we just chill for a bit?

[quote]Why hasn’t China invaded Taiwan yet?

For the same reason Napoleon and Hitler didn't invade England

[quote] China or Taiwan? Tough one

You can also buy most shitty, "made-in-China" stuff from India or Vietnam.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

this thread is great...thx DL

Taiwan has 25 million people. How does Xi think he can annex the island without a major military operation that will lead to a massive conflict and turn the whole western world against them.

Xi Jingping’s days are numbered.

Pay attention, South Korea! You're next!

What does it mean that aircraft are launched from carriers but not recovered? Did they crash?

R8- That is NOT going to happen. There won't be a SUPERPOWER in the future. China is already experiencing an energy shortage. The northeast of China is where all of the cheap crap is made that the West buys. That whole region is having blackouts because of a shortage of coal. The world had largely depleted it's fossil fuel reserves and Green/Renewable energy is neither green nor renewable. Wind turbines and Solar energy panels are made from natural resources that are just as finite as fossil fuels and we cause a lot of damage to the environment when we extract the materials necessary to build solar energy panels and wind turbines.

They have the most corrupt military in the world with no combat experience. Chinas military is is untested the rank and file have no combat experience unless the selling of positions in the military is considered. experience.

Manufacturing has been leaving China for Vietnam and India, plus Korean and Japanese companies are returning home since the cost of manufacturing in China has been rising. A war would would further slowdown the economy. If you wasn't to cripple China cut off the supply of Australian coal and middle east oil.

Looks like China’s “cut off our nose to spite our face” approach to punishing Australia isn’t going as they expected:

Taiwan' president speaks our defiantly.

The doomsayer general in R3 makes no sense. He says “if China attacks we must not fight.” Yet he spins scenarios in which the Chinese launch preemptive strikes on US bases throughout the region. So what’s his point exactly? We just let them destroy our bases with no action in return?

We spend almost three times what China does on our military. We have military forces with decades of experience in warfare. We now have extricated ourselves from military entanglements in the Middle East and Western Asia. And the Taiwanese have formidable defensive power and they’re an island, requiring amphibious invasion, the most ambitious type of warfare of all, which China has zero experience conducting. So, nope.

The U.S. has already commenced the long term strategic decoupling of our economy from China’s. It’s probably the one positive holdover from the Trump administration.

The U.S. can survive without China. In fact, we can thrive. The Chinese cannot survive without us.

Go fuck yourself OP. Taiwan>>>>>>Mainland.

Well that was uncalled for r70. I wasn’t advocating it. I’m just saying if I were China I’d shit or get off the pot.

R71, ok, assuming you are being genuine, I apologize. Just know that America WOULD absolutely intervene if China started to really pull some shit.

China isn't interested in invading, OP. They want reunification by peaceful means. They have time on their side.

The DPP won't be in charge forever. The KMT is ready to reach a deal. They're waiting in the wings.

[quote] They want reunification by peaceful means.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!

Don't be a rube, R74. The media are already walking it back.

R75/Boris, could you be any more obvious??

People are traveling to Xinjiang again, since the virus is under control, and it's impossible to claim genocide now because of the reality of things on the ground.

Anyone can visit Xinjiang now. Well, not unvaccinated foreign tourists, but anyone else. Visit!

The AP has not said there is no genocide you fucking troll.

[quote] Officials dodge questions about how many Uyghurs were detained, though statistics showed an extraordinary spike in arrests before the government stopped releasing them in 2019. Instead, they tell us during the tour that they’ve engineered the perfect solution to terrorism, protecting Uyghur culture rather than destroying it.

China's planning to go in late 2023 to 2024.

It plans to disrupt the American electrical grid or take down at least part of US online tech as a warning. Of course the US will retaliate and then we'll see. I assume before the anyone can do anything that Taiwan will have been overtaken and overrun.

You heard it here. Believe it.

R79, where's the genocide in that quote? If there were genocide, wouldn't an AP article come out proclaiming it? That piece finds no evidence of genocide and it's by an AP writer on the ground. If there were any evidence of genocide, an article about life in Xinjiang today would mention it. It'd be the headline. But there's nothing.

Xinjiang, like the rest of China, was closed-off to foreign tourists because of the virus. Now the virus is under control, and vaccinated foreigners can visit freely, and are welcome to do so.

An AP writer, vaccinated and so now free to come, visits and investigates, searching for evidence of genocide.

The AP writer can't find any evidence of genocide, and so the breathless article issuing forth after the investigation can't provide any such evidence, but rather weakly tries to besmirch ... the rise of mass tourism in the province.

Vaccinated? Come on over and visit!

Let's organize a DL visit! Looks fun!

Taiwan cannot react passively if China invades as Tibet did or Taiwan will lose its country as Tibet did.

R80 I could see it, but I could also see China doing nothing. China doesn’t need to do anything except let the US self-destruct and keep on buying Chinese goods in the meantime.

China hasn’t pulled the trigger cause they had bet that Trump would win re-election. then they planned to target Taipei. Their faux feuding with Trump was part of a strategic to eventuate win back their so called wayward island .

President Putin on Taiwan: ‘China does not need to use force’

China “does not need to use force” in order to achieve its desired “reunification” with Taiwan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week vowed to realize his aim of bringing the democratically run island nation of 24 million people under Beijing’s control by peaceful means, following a week of simmering tensions in the region.

China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, while Taiwan sees itself as separate from China, having ruled itself since splitting from the mainland in 1949 following a protracted civil war.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen responded in a speech Sunday, announcing that her government would invest in bolstering its military capabilities in order to “demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves.”

Speaking to CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Russian Energy Week conference in Moscow Wednesday, Putin pointed to Xi’s comments suggesting the possibility of a peaceful unification, and China’s “philosophy of statehood,” to suggest that there is no threat of military confrontation.

“I think China does not need to use force. China is a huge powerful economy, and in terms of purchasing parity, China is the economy number one in the world ahead of the United States now,” the Russian president said, according to a translation.

“By increasing this economic potential, China is capable of implementing its national objectives. I do not see any threats.”

Putin also addressed tense relations over the South China Sea, where Russia has tried to maintain a neutral stance toward China’s long-standing and internationally repudiated claim to vast swathes of nearby waters.

“As for the South China Sea, yes, there are some conflicting and contradictory interests but the position of Russia is based on the fact that we need to provide an opportunity for all countries in the region, without interference from the non-regional powers, to have a proper conversation based on the fundamental norms of international law,” he said.

“It should be a process of negotiations, that’s how we should resolve any arguments, and I believe there is a potential for that, but it has not been fully used so far.”

Clarification: This article has been updated to more accurately reflect that Taiwan sees itself as separate from China, having been in self-rule since the split from the mainland in 1949.

Saw that, R87. He's right. A few elections in Taiwan, and things will get back to "normal". The DPP is too radical given Taiwan's present economic trajectory.

China's not going to invade, if it can wait a few decades for its economy to grow to three times the US and EU combined. A few decades is nothing to them.

Putty knows what he's talking about. He already bought several EU politicians, including German former chancellor Schöder, who sits on the board of both Rosneft and Gazprom. Merkel made sure Ukraine would not become another NATO member, a huge gift to Putty. The controversial North Stream II pipeline, transporting Russian gas directly to Germany will make sure Putty will have huge control over Germany's energy sector for decades to come. If Angela had got her wish, the EU's G5 network would have been built by Huawei. Her first international trip after she leaves office will be to China. Xi called her a great friend of China. 🤮

Funny…I thought one of Trump’s first international calls were with the Taiwanese government and that Xi felt great hubris about it? Am I mistaken? I think not. There is not going to be a peaceful Taiwanese “reunification” with bully China.

Good thread on twitter. Going to war would be lose-lose for America. China can take Taiwan whenever they want to.

Historically speaking, Taiwan was always a place where the assholes of China fled. Most recently in 1949, the losers of the Chinese Revolution set up camp there. We backed loser Chiang Kai-Shek in Taiwan due to the Cold War, although we were so disgusted with him in the late 40s we abandoned him to lose the revolution. Obviously there would be terrible geopolitical ramifications if China took over Taiwan, but I can see why China thinks it belongs to them.

Who the fuck is shilling for China on a gay site? They recently banned airing any gay content on mainstream media and told the entertainment industry to stop featuring effeminate men. Their government is more efficient but much more corrupt and brutal than the US.

Trolls. oh, they Chinese want to own the world's DNA. they are buying up all the medical info data whatever...saw the headline a few weeks back, didn't bother reading.

[quote] Historically speaking, Taiwan was always a place where the assholes of China fled. Most recently in 1949, the losers of the Chinese Revolution set up camp there. We backed loser Chiang Kai-Shek in Taiwan due to the Cold War, although we were so disgusted with him in the late 40s we abandoned him to lose the revolution. Obviously there would be terrible geopolitical ramifications if China took over Taiwan, but I can see why China thinks it belongs to them.

Uh, what, the anti-communists are the assholes?? And why would China think an island these “assholes” fled to belongs to them?

Past few replies made me realize DL people have a very simplistic and childish worldview.

0% chance the CPC invades this decade. There's so urgency. The Anglo-Saxon nations are trying to precipitate a war because their military advantage is slipping year after year, but Xi is smart and meta: he sees the angles and know what they're trying to do.

China knows how to hide its time. The DPP won't be in power forever. Taiwan might not have huge enterprises that control each government, but its large- and medium-sized firms, and its professionals hold a lot of sway. They won't let the DPP provoke a war.

Once the KMT wins back control, there'll be a restoration of the status quo before Tsai.

*bide its time

R97 what is the diff between KMT and DPP in relation to China?

China's trust in its military is its Achilles heel

How do r100?

How SO r100?

R99, night and day. The KMT wants stable relations with China and ever deepening business ties. It's fine with the ambiguity of a One China policy. The DPP essentially wants independence. The economy isn't good and Tsai is provoking China to bolster weakening support for her party. China can make Taiwan's economy even worse, if Tsai pushes too far. They kind of are already, with Taiwan's agricultural exports to the mainland.

To learn more about Taiwan's economic malaise, see the Taiwan pieces in this special report on the four tigers/little dragons. .

omg I hope not