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Poll: Trudeau Liberals increase support; Conservatives dropping

New poll out from Abacus this morning:

Liberal fortunes strengthen; Conservatives shed 5 points in a month

June 24, 2021

Liberals (37%)

Conservatives (27%)

NDP (18%)

BQ (9%)

Greens (5%)

Our latest national survey of 2,070 Canadian adults from June 18 to 21, 2021 finds the Liberals opening a 10-point lead over the Conservatives as the federal government’s approval rating improves.

APPROVAL OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Since our last survey, we see a four-point rise in approval of the federal government’s performance, to 44% with 38% disapprove. While movement on this indicator has been very limited this year, 44% is the highest number we recorded since January.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 27%, the NDP 18%, the Green Party 5% and the BQ would get 39% in Quebec. The Liberals are up 3 points since mid-June, the Conservatives are down 2, and at the lowest vote share in over four years.

Comparing these results to the outcome of the 2019 election, the Liberals are 4 points higher, the Conservatives 7 points lower, and the NDP 2 points higher.

While regional breakdowns are obviously important, readers are encouraged to read these breaks with appropriate caution, as sample sizes are smaller and margins of error higher.

• In BC we see the NDP (37%) with a 7-point lead over the Liberals (30%) followed by the Conservatives (27%).

• In this wave we see the Conservatives with 39% in Alberta, compared to 34% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP. The People’s Party claims a 7% share.

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba we are seeing a close race between the Liberals (34%), the Conservatives (33%) and the NDP (25%).

• The Liberals have a 13-point lead in Ontario, with 42% compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 19% for the NDP.

• In Quebec the BQ (39%) are showing stronger than the Liberals (33%) with the Conservatives well back at 14% and the NDP (5%) and Green Party (6%) essentially tied.

• In Atlantic Canada, we find 50% support for the Liberals followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 13%.

Worth noting is that the higher support levels for the Liberals in the Prairie provinces may be an anomaly and reflect smaller cell sizes, but we do also see a 6 point rise in federal approval in Alberta and a 9 point rise in Manitoba/Saskatchewan since the beginning of June.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of -3.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 19% and finds negative impressions among 40%, for a net score of -21.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 35% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +9.

Annamie Paul has seen her negatives increase over the past two weeks. 12% have a positive impression while 25% have a negative one for a net score of -13.

ELECTION SETTING: LIBERALS VERSUS CONSERVATIVES

As election speculation is heating up, we thought it would be useful to compare the situation between the two largest parties in the House today, with where things were before an election call in 2019.

The Liberals trailed by 4 heading into that election, compared to a 10-point lead today. Today’s approval rating for the Trudeau government is 9 points higher than it was in 2019. Impressions of PM Trudeau are 5 points better this year, while impressions of Mr. O’Toole are 14 points lower than they were for Mr. Scheer.

[More at link]:

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by Anonymousreply 7June 26, 2021 1:26 AM

Great news. I, glad the smug Greens are at the bottom

by Anonymousreply 1June 24, 2021 1:10 PM

[quote]In this wave we see the Conservatives with 39% in Alberta, compared to 34% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP. The People’s Party claims a 7% share.

Between O'Toole and Kenny the Conservatives have to be REALLY fucking things up to be below 40% in Alberta.

by Anonymousreply 2June 24, 2021 1:58 PM

R2, perhaps some of the regional sample sizes are off. Cons are probably higher than that in Alberta, although apparently O'Toole is not liked by the Conservative base.

by Anonymousreply 3June 25, 2021 12:47 PM

Suck it, (Canadian) deplorables!

by Anonymousreply 4June 25, 2021 1:33 PM

Who votes NDP?

by Anonymousreply 5June 26, 2021 12:38 AM

Who votes BQ?

I don't feel like they even belong in the race.

by Anonymousreply 6June 26, 2021 1:24 AM

Imagine Elizabeth May naked.

by Anonymousreply 7June 26, 2021 1:26 AM
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