Stealth Inflation

There was a discussion here a few weeks ago dedicated to the best cars in the $80,000 to $100,000 price range.

I can't even fathom paying that much for a car and wondered whethere everyone in that discussion is wealthy or if they're middle class and willing to carbe out a huge chunk of their paychecks for auto loan debt. I'd still like to know.

(I am almost 43 and I live in a city and drive a very old car because it inevitably gets scratched and bruised around here and I don't drive that often. But even if I lived in the suburbs, I can't imagine paying $50,000 for a car, much less $100,000. That seems insane to me unless a person just has millions of bucks lying around. Cars are such a waste of money.)

Recently I was looking for a place to take my partner for a celebratory lunch so when I walked by the Leopard at des Artistes restaurant on the Upper West Side and saw they had outdoor tables, I decided to check out the menu. A burger was $28, pancakes were $21, steak and eggs was $38 and all the desserts were $16, Dinner was even more outrageous: lamb chops were $55, braised rabbit leg (not even the whole rabbit?) was $47, half a chicken was $40, and a plate of pasta is $29.

I know restaurants are hurting, and this has never been a cheap place to eat, even by New York standards, but these prices are insane, especially considering you'll be eating in what's a glorified tent as cars go whizzing by you. Unsurprisingly, most of the tables were empty.

(The prices at the nearby Boathouse in Central Park are slightly less obscene and at least has a beautiful view, so we ended up there)

Michael Burry of 2008 stock shorting fame recently deleted his Twitter after the SEC contacted him when he posted warnings about coming inflation.

A 1970s style economy is looming.

I see houses and stocks and art I see.

Consumer goods, not so much.

The price of gas and rents are not included in the CPI. Tells ya all ya need to know.

And I will say this for what it seems the billionth time sine I started posting here the first month of the DL.

We focus on the wrong things! The rich hold ALL OF THE POWER! They control EVERYTHING! Go after them FIRST! Eat the rich or continue with your shit lives!

^ CBD, gurl

Welcome back, Libertarian Idiot Troll(TM)! My god, how we've missed you.

Do you have a calendar date of when we can expect [bold]MASSIVE, CIVILIZATION-DESTROYING HYPERINFLATION[/bold] to destroy everything we hold dear? What should I wear for the event? Should I put all my money in Bitcoin? Gold? My mattress? So many questions.

While we're on it, did the Euro ever collapse? You were telling us ten years ago over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over that it would. I guess I missed that important piece of information.

The Silicon Valley - Libertarian contingent is fuddup.

We will be lining up for gas again soon.

Some of it is tariffs. I’ve noticed rising prices on imported consumer goods. It’s annoying

R3 so what can the average person do about it? We can’t all buy water rights as he did. Also, that just doesn’t seem ethical.

Stealthflation

Just the whisper of raising the minimum wage sends these trickle down cunts like OP into a predictable hissy fit.

That's quite a leap you made there, R14. OP said nothing about being opposed to raising the minimum wage. I'm with OP and Dr. Burry. Inflation is mounting.

I went grocery shopping today and the price of beef floored me ! $20-30 for a decent sized steak ,not even t-bone ! Fuck Publix ! Rip off hater supporters !

You can’t just print $5T (a quarter of GDP) and expect prices to be stable.

The damage to the lower middle class is already a crisis, and $5/gal milk and gas is a huge hit to their diminishing incomes.

The insanity of having the lowest labor participation rate in history, coupled with an exploding stock and housing market, and everyone pretending that 10% inflation won’t decimate our economy is mind blowing. These central bank lunatics are going to destroy us.

So R17 what should one do to brace themselves for the upcoming financial crisis?

IT wasn't that long ago that I could go to a fast food joint and eat very nicely (I'm a big eater, not fat, just very tall, and totally a guy with a fast metabolism) for $6-8. Now it's routinely $10-11.

The fact that there's inflation in food is OBVIOUS.

[quote] Reganomics

Oh dear.

R18

Simple capital preservation is going to be difficult, and is one of the reasons for the perverse value of Bitcoin. I think the blockchain is the most revolutionary thing since Netscape, but Big Money doesn’t seem set either.

Fiscally, asset inflation is going to continue, but I believe it will catch down once the pain is too much. Rising interest rates could set the fire.

Farmland near small cities is going to be premium property.

[quote]I think the blockchain is the most revolutionary thing since Netscape

Thanks for letting us know all your opinions are worthless garbage.

R15 You're ridiculously transparent. I'm with Professor Reich.

Imagine you raise the minimum wage to $50 an hour. People that are paid more will demand raises, driving up wages even further. That will translate into higher prices for every good sold, and will produce zero net benefit for poor workers.

You're engaging in argumentum ad absurdum, R24.

Shocked no one cares about this.

Jesus.

Bump in the night...

R26 it’s not that no one cares. What can we do about it? Trying to use money to buy something “real” ie land, housing etc? Congrats, everyone else had the same idea and prices have doubled or tripled in my area over the last few years. What to do?

I've was out of the USA for 20 months, made an ultra-rare trip yo McDonald's for a small drink, small fries and 4 nuggets. Six fuckin' dollars. I'm done with that shit.

I agree that more needs to be included - the 'inflation' being so stable is bullshit.

So many items have increased in cost - bars, restaurants, housing, education - far, far beyond the cost of inflation.

Everyday goods and groceries have been increasing in price for years.

R31

Printing trillions in debt for decades does that to a currency.

R28

I would retire if I knew the answer to that question. The distortions to the housing market over the last 60 years, but especially during the last 20 years, make it hard to judge. The federal reserve sets the overnight interest-rate, what rate banks will loan each other overnight, which sets the price for money down to the 30yr treasury. Every year it has dropped lower and lower and lower, to the point that interest bearing accounts are losing money when inflation is factored.

Inputs for new housing are up around 30%, with 2x4 up 500%. Saw an apartment contract jump $4M this week.

New and existing housing are almost identically priced, another 50 year anomaly, while supply is near historical lows.

The inevitable rise in interest rates will batter the mortgage market and could indicate loss of yield curve control by the Federal Reserve.

EVERYTHING except certain hard assets is a landmine now.

Dogecoin. Insane.

The 1% own an ever increasing percentage of the nation’s total wealth.

[italic] They [/italic] can afford to buy [italic] all [/italic] the nice things - many of them things the government doesn’t include in it’s CPI market basket, but things nonetheless many, middle class people have long thought they’d reasonably be able to buy - “aspirational” goods.

Now those things are being bid up beyond reach.

Time to tax the hell out of the wealthy.

What percentage of wealth is held by the top 1%?

In the first quarter of 2020, the top 1% of households and nonprofit organizations held 31.2% of all net worth in the United States.

What percentage of wealth is held by the bottom 50%?

In the first quarter of 2020, the lower 50% of households and nonprofit organizations held 1.4% of all net worth in the United States.

R1- I paid $ 16,350 for my 2009 Volkswagen Rabbit 🐇 brand new in 2009. I’m still driving it.

Jesus Christ, R5, just google the phrase “ The price of gas and rents are not included in the CPI” to see that, in fact, both gas and rent are included in the CPI.

You could have argued that the CPI isn’t a fair representation of the actual inflation rate. You could have claimed the formula used is outdated or even arbitrarily skewed toward specific segments of the population. You could have simply passed judgement in saying “The CPI is bullshit.” But you didn’t, and all you’ve told us is you’re an idiot.

It’s one thing to exaggerate to make a point, and it’s another altogether to outright lie.

I judge real inflation by the cost of disposable razors at Costco.

R32 hard assets such as?

I’ve noticed small price increases in things like bread or dairy. Things like meat substitutes have remained the same.

Distilled white vinegar when from $2.29 to $2.99 within months of this pandemic.

The price of food and other daily essentials went up during the beginning of Covid and they haven't gone down. They won't go down either

Almost no manufacturing closed during the pandemic. Manufacturing was considered essential. So were truck drivers

Toilet paper is still selling for $14 for 9 rolls

Become a lacto ovo vegeterian. This means that you can eat eggs and milk in addition to all the yummy veggies you want. I happen to be an excellent and experienced cook. Try an omelet with fresh tomatoes, cheese and other veggies for a really hearty meal. Whip up a frittata! Nothing like eating a lovely bosc pear with a knife and fork, slowly savoring each bite. The thought of eating a whole steak nauseates me. However, some thin slices of steak as a condiment with mainly veggies is delightful. Try it - your digestive system will thank you.

R37 for the win!

CPI is largely BS numbers federal government uses to show low inflation for many reasons, one of which of course is to keep down indexed increases in all sorts of government payments including Social Security.

NYT piece from back in January 2021 lays things out nicely.

Quite honestly inflation as measured officially by not just USA but EU and many other governments just hasn't happened in now almost two decades, and no one is sure what exactly is going on.

People who matter have been crying about rising inflation rates for years as governments poured money into economies, kept interest rates so low they are near nil, etc...., but it just hasn't happened.

The inflation has already happened. Look at education, health care, stocks, housing - all are blazing hot with new money.

By definition, inflation is an increase in the supply of money. The increase in the cost of goods is merely an effect of inflation.

Inputs are already over 8%, so prepare wisely.

It seems like every time I go to the supermarket something has gone up or the package content size has mysteriously shrunk.

Chaos! Frenzy! Underground bunkers! Bitcoin! OMG OMG!!

Who are the retarded motherfuckers who believe the inflation is under control?

Here in deepest decaying flyoverstan, where houses would sit on the market for 9-12 months, houses are selling in under a week for more than the asking price. Factory jobs paying $20+/hr with full benefits are going begging. Now seeing want are saying “ no drug test, criminal record ok” Restaurants put up “were closed today, no help” signs. Something is seriously out of whack.

The world is fast becoming the have and have nots. Dinseyworld for the average family even on the cheap is several thousand dollars. Kia are going for 40-50-60 thousand dollars. Houses are skyrocketing in price. Sure airline tickets are cheap but who can afford to go anywhere? Wages havre been stagnent for 20 years while corporations post record profits. A dingy turns over in the gulf of mexico and gas shoots up 50 cents a gallon overnight? Want to MAGA? Tax the fucking rich until they bleed.

[qupte]The world is fast becoming the have and have nots.

It has already become that R52. Now, the "haves" and "have nots" division is becoming deeply entrenched and soon it will be unable to be undone.

A big correction is coming, and it won’t be pretty. Much more likely looking at housing and job situation closer to turn of the century. The ones buying up the real estate are investors, big buying groups, foreigners. The intent to leave the working class renters for life. All other business models are moving away from ownership to rental models too. And stifle the minimum wage while the cost of all goods skyrocket. We’re not heading for a 1970s economy, we’re heading for a 19th century economy.

R54: That’s a recipe for a revolution; not a “correction.”

New housing buyers are in for sticker shock. Lumber prices are up massively.

I learned this recently as I shopped contractors to build a small, simple recreational cabin from my plans. This modest project is now beyond my means.

R56 yes! My partner is a carpenter and customers are finding it difficult to believe most of the cost is materials. I find it frustrated that as "DYI" took off (from remodeling shows/ YouTube), that's even out of reach. I'm also noticing terrifying trends, where the average person will no longer be able to have nice things, like FAUX rock, brick, wood, epoxy, etc., ruling over the materials you can access.

I've been trying to warn people to stop painting real hard woods, or anything really that's made out of old school materials, because they're quickly becoming out of reach. Keep scrap wood too.

Shoes.

About two years ago I decided to replace a pair of dress shoes I really liked and figured I'd just get the same shoes again. I was shocked to find that they were now over $400--about twice what I'd paid ten years prior-- and decided that maybe it was just the store I was looking in had overpriced them. Went online and found that was the going price and not just for that particular brand.

My weekly grocery bill pre-pandemic was $60-70 a week now I am spending double that amount and only if I am careful about my spending.

The CPI is shameless manipulated by the government .They routinely only index the "core CPI" omitting energy and housing costs. This enables them to understate inflation. It lets them limit SSI increases which are linked to CPI/ inflation by law. Three types of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics.

R54 1900 was our dream year!

1. Why are you people eating that much meat?

2. What the heck do you people need to buy? During the Biden speech I said to my husband that we don't really need anything. We have all the televisions and phones and laptops we need.

I don't get it. I am spending more on food now but I'm more careless due to all the unemployment payments and stuff. Plus both my kids are teens (and home all the time now) so they're always hungry. But I'm planning on buckling down to my old shopping ways and stop buying pre-made expensive stuff (we're buying the stuff from the ready to expire cases in the front of Shoprite, so it's not really that expensive). You use coupons for your razors and that kind of health & beauty stuff.

I think you guys are ordering wrong at McDonald's. My daughter gets the $3 bundle which is a double cheeseburger plus fries. I think they have a chicken mcnugget bundle. Cokes are $1 there so that's $4 and tax. It only gets expensive when I buy iced coffee, and I should really bring that from home. Why is iced coffee so freakin expensive? If you go to Burger King use the app or coupons, it's cheap as hell. (My husband wouldn't listen to us about the $3 bundle so he was spending more when he went for lunch with work guys. Now he finally gets the bundle and agrees that it's cheap as hell.)

We're seeing the same thing here, r51. I'm in a mid-sized town in Kansas. Fast food places and groceries have closed or reduced hours, which made sense a year ago but it's getting worse lately. BF works at a factory and they've been having problems keeping employees for a few years, but since last fall, they haven't been able to even get people to interview.

I’ve noticed prices at the grocery store in So. California have increased dramatically. Costco prices seem to be a full $1-2 more for most items. More of an increase for men’s shoes, socks, face cream, disposable razors, yogurt and lunch meat. Gasoline, pretty much in line with Chevron.

Again as R44 and R45 lay out CPI is largely rubbish, government inflation figures do not measure things most households have to buy. Energy, housing, etc... don't know about federal government but I cannot get along without paying for energy in some form for lights, heating/cooling, cooking. I also have to eat and require transportation to get from point "A" to "B" and back again.

Further proof that CPI is a crock of shit is how people on SSI even with COL adjustments (and they have been rather puny lately), still often cannot make ends meet. That is one reason why democrats fought hard to ensure those on Social Security and disability got those stimulus checks.

Hmmm. Who are the workers who process the meat we eat and pick the vegetables we eat? Immigrants. Who has the right wing demonized over the past 5-10 years? Immigrants. Why have food prices gone up? Must be liberals!

SS COLA increases are a joke. They raise your check and then take it back for Medicare. My advice to the youngins is SAVE SAVE SAVE for your old age. SS just don’t cut it.

All the more reason that we need to raise the minimum wage to compensate.

All the more evidence that increasing the minimum wage is not the driver for inflation.

Basically, Republicans are wrong about pretty much everything, so we should all just stop listening to them or voting for them.

I will admit that cars have gotten more expensive. When we were car shopping last spring/summer we did notice that. Couldn't find anything under $20,000 with 4WD or AWD. I was insisting on that because I actually had used my cheap Jeep's 4WD to get up a mini hill in an ice storm. Nobody else seemed able to get through.

Yes, we could have bought used and intended to, but found a leftover Mazda 5 so we got the warranty. I think it was about $22,000. We're cheapy cheapinsons and don't like paying that much.

I only shop for myself so i generally don’t pay too much attention to prices, but when did toothpaste start costing 6 dollars a tube?

The concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands means that producers of high-end, luxury goods (expensive cars, fancy toothpastes, fancy steaks) can charge more and more because they know their rich customers have nowhere else to go and won't look for cheaper things.

I'm not sure where you all shop or what you buy, and no doubt buying something at Gristede's in NYC will cost more, but a big tube of Crest cost $1 this morning. The Prime filet mignons we had last night were $14.99/lb, whole milk is $2.99 a gallon, and a dozen rolls of "Supreme" grade toilet paper (it really is better than "Premium" grade) are $4.99. A bag (12-14) of Valencia oranges to squeeze and make a quart of OJ was $2.99, coffee is $5.99 for 24 ozs, and dry Cape scallops (the sweetest) were $12.99. Two pounds of Florida strawberries was $6.99. All of this at the local supermarket, and wherever possible, store brand items toothpaste.

The next stop was the dispensary and there's a place the cost of what they sell has gone up: an ounce of medical (not recreational - they charge more) top shelf flower used to be $250 before the discounts. Now an ounce is anywhere from $360 to $420. Competition (new medicinal and recreational stores opening weekly, so you'd think that is more people sell it, the price would come down. Not that it's likely a component of the CPI.

I know prices have gone up and will never, barring a glut of a particular item, come down much again, but some of the prices quoted above seem way out of line with I'm seeing and buying.

Y'all inflation ain't nuthin ta worry bout.

Yeah I've noticed prices of food increasing but not to the extent some here are saying

Not only do the rich not pay taxes a la Trump, but their class keeps the rest of us from getting even cost of living wages. Republicans have got to go in all areas of government. Then we can tax the rich and make them actually pay. Make corporations pay taxes and not ship jobs overseas. We could make laws to enforce cost od living wages. The Scandinavian model aounds very good to me.

Not that this is some definitive proof that we are entering an inflationary period, but Clorox is raising prices due to inflationary pressures. Get those wipes now!

Of course inflation is soaring. It’s bleeding obvious every time one shops. But you need to decide if you’re going to be a victim, or a winner. The stock market and property are also soaring. Everyone can invest in some capacity. If you’re not putting at least SOME of your income into assets — either paying off a property or purchasing stocks, perhaps through a fund — why are you going to work every day? Pay yourself first. Otherwise you’ll always be a slave and victim of circumstance. Investing enables you to buy yourself out of that paradigm. It’s FUCK YOU money.