2020 Presidential Election Predictions

Trump will lose and it will be pitiful for him. But he will deserve everything that happens to him after he is evicted from our Whitehouse.

I think Trump will win Florida.

Obama won both terms with a plus 50% majority (First since IKE to do it) But in each term it was barely 51%.. Biden will do a lot better than 51%, but how much better I'm not sure.

OP, you're no Nosferatu. Leave the predictions to Dionne Warwick.

I predict Trump shits his pants tonight while deboarding AF1. He slips in his own shit and grabs onto the fake Melania trying to catch his balance. He tumbles down two steps and then does a complete triple axel, landing on fake Melania’s head, suffocating her immediately. Still connected to fake Melania’s head, Trump continues to fall and lands on the tarmac head first and skids thirty feet leaving a huge shit skid mark and pieces of fake Melania in his wake.

Throughout the ordeal, Trump never loses the Big Mac clutched tightly in his baby hands.

I’d love to see him crack 400 but this would be a proper blowout.

Somehow I get the vibe that Biden would be more likely to win TX, GA or AZ than FL. I don't trust American's Wang at all.

My prediction looks like OP's.

If I'm wrong, IA or GA will swing to Biden, too.

Google is supressing the images. Fucking scumbags.

Related question: what's your election night strategy? Staying up all night to see what happens? Going to bed early & hoping to wake up in a post-Dump world? I know I won't be able to sleep, but watching TV with pundits blathering on might drive me absolutely bonkers.

I remember waking up in the middle of the night on Election Day (or the day after) and seeing much to my horror the electoral map being totally red. I am still traumatized by that episode & need to find a way to get through it this time.

Its going to be a repeat of 2016:

Trump loses popular vote, but wins electoral college.

Senate remains in Republican hands.

Democrats lose seats in House, but still majority.

Its deja vu all over again.

You are fucking nuts R11. Once you say you think Dems will lose seats in the House, you prove you’re a fucking moron or a Trump tool. I’m guessing both.

It will be neck and neck on election night. RECOUNT!!! Trump screeches as Texas, Arizona, and Pennsylvania shines boldly like Kashmir blue sapphires in the Democrats crown. Biden will be declared the winner. In a fit of rage, Trump refuses to finish out his term. New pants will be needed from the fecal fallout. Biden weary from battle dies shortly before or after being sworn in. Americans then enter the enlightened "age of the first gentleman", under the watchful eye of Madame President Harris.

R12, let's promise to meet up on Wednesday, November 4th. We'll see who is nuts then.

[quote] I predict Trump shits his pants tonight while deboarding AF1. He slips in his own shit and grabs onto the fake Melania trying to catch his balance. He tumbles down two steps and then does a complete triple axel, landing on fake Melania’s head, suffocating her immediately. Still connected to fake Melania’s head, Trump continues to fall and lands on the tarmac head first and skids thirty feet leaving a huge shit skid mark and pieces of fake Melania in his wake.

[quote] Throughout the ordeal, Trump never loses the Big Mac clutched tightly in his baby hands.

And as he turns to face the media he proudly shouts, “The Aristocrats!” and shoves the Bic Mac in his mouth.

Nah R14. I’d rather put your cunt ass on ignore.

This thread is giving me SO MUCH ANXIETY.

I'm not 100% sure Biden will win PA after that fossil fuels comment. Trump is playing that to the hilt in PA. The western part of the state is fracking central. The eastern part will need to come out like never before to counter that. Fingers crossed.

TX is unlikely, even more so than PA. GA flipping would be sweet, but it's a long shot unless the Atlanta metro area voters outnumber the rest of the state.

Not bad R15. In my story, Trump was dead the moment his head hit the tarmac.

281 Trump 254 Biden

If Arizona goes Biden:

270 Trump 265 Biden

Worst case scenario: 291 Biden; 247 Trump

R20 there are 538 total electoral votes, your scenarios are 3 short.

My prediction is Biden 335, Trump 203. Biden picks up FL, NC, PA, MI, and WI.

Unfortunately, I have to be at work at 4:30am. So I will head to bed early (7ish) and wake at 3 to see the results.

My hope/prediction.

Anyone want to make their own map you can do so at this link.

I'm going to watch the election in the evening.

I believe we'll know the results by 10 pm E.T. at the latest. Even if a state has contested results or absentee ballots uncounted, we'll know the 98% counted number and can safely bet that's who won. You don't have to stay up past the final Presidential numbers announced by Ohio's and Florida's secretaries of state because all swing states that matter will be reported by then. We're pretty certain how everybody out West is going to vote.

President will be called much earlier than all the dicey Senate contests. I'm going to stay up until midnight so I can see acceptance speeches by Kelly, Bullock and Hickenlooper. I also want to watch Republican trash humiliated on TV with shocked concession speeches or interviews about how they can't believe they have to do what the voters want.

The chances that two or more impactful swing states won't announce the numbers they have on election night are NIL. They are under enormous pressure and they'll have to announce what they know. And the chances that that's going to be different from the final outcome are extremely low, too.

I leave it to the statisticians. "Feelings" and "hunches" are like assholes. Five Thirty Eight, the Economist, Princeton Consortium, etc., all have Biden winning by varying degrees.

The polls will tighten. Trump supporters are loud, no doubt. Trump's campaign is broke and he has no money of his own. When Texas, Georgia, and Iowa are even close...

Texas is another entertaining Presidential contest to stay up for. I don't see the swing states splitting 50-50 between candidates. There's almost always a "wave" or trend because the majority's thinking isn't that different.

There could be a scenario where Texas flipping for Biden is what it takes for the networks to call Biden the winner if Florida is a shitshow.

Not seeing FL go to Biden, Texas not going to Biden... Beyond that....who knows..

Trump was in Maine today. Why?

Then you're not seeing Florida polls for the last 4 years, r29.

Or the 1.8 million, mostly liberal voters added to Florida's rolls after overturning voter suppression and more young people got involved.

R30 Was probably craving Maine lobster.

Trump probably just wanted to seal Susan Collins' fate.

It would have to be an utter blowout for them to call anything before 11PM EST, when the West Coast closes. I don't think we'll have the numbers in even the best case scenario without California, and I suspect nobody wants to call anything with such a big chunk of the electorate still with open polls.

It's my understanding that all the Florida pre-vote will already be counted so we could actually get a relatively fast Florida count. PA and MI are the ones I think there could be holdups, but there are a lot of other ways to get to 270 with and without Florida.

Little whore Kansas wants to be the center of attention for once so, here is my prediction.

They’re sending Trump out to do rallies because he loves doing them and it keeps him from driving everybody in the White House up the wall with his tantrums and self pitying neediness. After the election he’ll either be on his way out or an irrelevant lame duck and everybody will be able to kick back and ignore him.

[quote] [R20] there are 538 total electoral votes, your scenarios are 3 short.

Sorry, you’re right— forgot DC.

281 Trump 257 Biden Arizona goes blue? 270 Trump 268 Biden

[quote] [R12], let's promise to meet up on Wednesday, November 4th. We'll see who is nuts then.

I hope you’ll let me join the party.

I also hope you’re putting your money where your mouth is on PredictIt.

I want in on the action.

R11 is correct yet it may be a bit mor decisive than in 2016. I don’t agree regarding the house comments. Lower your expectations now folks so you won’t be depressed for 4 years

Biden 340 Trump 198

Biden wins All the Hillary states plus PA, WI, MI, NC, Florida and Iowa and Arizona. Biden wins the one district in Nebraska while Trump wins one in Maine. Ohio and Georgia and Texas barely go to Trump.

Democrats win the Senate picking up Maine, NC, AZ, Iowa, Colorado and South Carolina and lose one seat in Alabama.

Florida and Arizona will probably go to Trump. I don't trust them.

[quote]281 Trump 257 Biden Arizona goes blue? 270 Trump 268 Biden

Yikes.

[quote] [R11] is correct yet it may be a bit mor decisive than in 2016. I don’t agree regarding the house comments. Lower your expectations now folks so you won’t be depressed for 4 years

What polls are you looking at that are leading you to make this prediction?

I don’t see Trump losing this year sadly. This country is too fucked up. People are angry and when they’re angry they vote Republican regardless of who is in charge.

[quote] Biden wins All the Hillary states plus PA, WI, MI, NC, Florida and Iowa and Arizona.

Insanity. Have you been to NC, FL, or IA? North Carolina is going to stay red. Florida and Iowa(!?) too. Arizona is the one possible flip since they a marijuana legalization prop up for the vote.

I’m not cheering this at all, but be realistic. The race is in PA, WI, and MI.

Biden 341, Drumpf 197

This, and I'm throwing Montana and South Carolina in a shocks that nobody saw coming.

And you'd have to be an extremist and a dumbass not to know the writing on the wall by 8 pm Eastern, r34.

All the swing states' officials will be required to report what they have by then and we'll know who basically won. Most of the TV networks are not going to wait until 11 p.m. ET to call the election or report the known numbers.

I'm going to find out what the swing states have before even the networks report it directly from their websites.

Biden has the advantage in NC and has all year.

r48 is a partisan dreamer/Devil's Advotroll. The non-partisan polls show BIDEN has the advantage in NC above the margins of error:

[quote] All the swing states' officials will be required to report what they have by then and we'll know who basically won. Most of the TV networks are not going to wait until 11 p.m. ET to call the election or report the known numbers.

Uh, no. There are plenty of mail-in votes to be counted that aren’t due as “postmarked” until November 3. It’s possible we won’t know MI or PA by 11pm.

See what Nate Silver has to say about that.

R49, no network will call the election before 11:00pm.

Good point, r51. So...For example: if the state knows it’s waiting on 50,000 ballots that were mailed and not returned, and Biden wins by 100,000, they can confidently call the state for him. Works in reverse, too—if there were 50,000 ballots unreturned, and Biden is ahead by 20,000, they won’t be able to call it.

Any democratic candidate should be able to beat Dump in a landslide.

The fact that this is a close race is not acceptable. This is not four years ago.

It’s not really a close race, R54, but we’re very polarized, Trump voters HATE Democrats, and they live in an information bubble and aren’t very smart. That’s why it seems “close” to you.

It’s not really close, though.

My prediction: Biden 325, Trump 213.

Whether the actual EC vote will go that way is another matter entirely.

The one to watch is North Carolina. It's the first state that closes that is up for grabs and will be a good augur of what's going to go down the rest of the night. It's not a must-win for Biden but it is for Trump. If he can't hold that one, he won't get the numbers he needs. Florida would be a good call to get as well, but I really think North Carolina is the first domino to watch fall and that's the call I'll be most anxiously awaiting come 8:00.

It’s going to be a huge red wave! Us real white Christian Americans are sick of all you BLM Antifa socialist heathens. We will win every state except California, Illinois and the Northeast! Trump 363, Sleepy Joe 175.

Tomorrow belongs to us! #maga #kag #qanon #wwg1wga #Trump2024 #Trump2028 #Ivanka2032

I know you are all going to FF and flame me for this, but I feel like the Rumpster is going to pull it out of his ass again. Disregarding the national polls, the state polls are still extremely tight. In some states, Biden is doing worse than Hillary did at this time. Granted, there are less undecided voters this time around, not as strong of a third party showing and turn out has been higher so far, but presuming that the polls are off by just a few percentage points. Trump is going to win 290 to 248, losing Michigan. This is how I see the map. It's very likely that Biden will win in the popular vote by 7-10% (I'm betting 8%) and still lose because of the electoral college. Maybe [itaic] this [/italic] will finally force us to abolish it once and for all. It should have been eliminated in 2000.

^ he won’t get WI or AZ 4 sure so there goes that plan

Trump is unlikely to win Florida. There just aren’t enough right-wing Cubans there anymore.

But there are plenty of white rednecks r61.

I predict 291-247 Biden wins. Mark my words. I hope I am wrong and Biden wins FL, NC, GA, AZ, IA. and TX. But I doubt it.

I hear all the time about people who voted for Trump in 2016 but are now voting for Biden. Have you heard of anyone that voted for Hillary 2016 now voting for Trump?

If Biden wins the popular vote and Dump wins the electoral college there will be a huge uproar. And who would believe it was even legitimate with all the tampering and shady shit that's been done?

I just don't get how Dump could win. So many prominent Republicans seem to be jumping ship in a way that they haven't in ages. And I really think there are those who support him in public but in private will pull that lever for Biden.

The country is in complete chaos.

People like r59 don’t get it. If plumps wins again there will be no electoral collage. No voting. No Congress. No laws.

That’s not how nazis do things.

Biden with 291 seems correct. Maybe he can win Arizona or Iowa. I think Trump gets FL, TX, GA, NC. In close races.

R59, funnily enough, I get the same numbers, but the other way round.

[quote] I hear all the time about people who voted for Trump in 2016 but are now voting for Biden. Have you heard of anyone that voted for Hillary 2016 now voting for Trump?

No, I haven’t. Which is why this guy’s post is so dumb:

[quote]I know you are all going to FF and flame me for this, but I feel like the Rumpster is going to pull it out of his ass again. Disregarding the national polls, the state polls are still extremely tight. In some states, Biden is doing worse than Hillary did at this time.

R59 hasn’t heard about the district-level polling.

[quote] I hear all the time about people who voted for Trump in 2016 but are now voting for Biden. Have you heard of anyone that voted for Hillary 2016 now voting for Trump?

Yes. 4 of them.

I believe Biden will get Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA. Possibly North Carolina. No Ohio. No Florida. No GA. No Texas. I'm going to stick with my prediction that Joe gets between 279-290 Electoral Votes. We have to keep up the momentum. MAssive Early Vote. This is IT. The last week. Do not fuck this up. I also predict our net gain in the Senate is 3 more seats.

[quote] And who would believe it was even legitimate with all the tampering and shady shit that's been done?

If something has been done why hasn’t anyone done anything about it?

Two things above all are making me hopeful: the enormous early vote, and the enormous youth vote.

I don’t think they’ll suffice to win Texas for Biden, but Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and NC are another matter.

Also, I think the “shy Trump voter” is a myth. Those people are anything but shy.

The early & youth vote actually should propel Biden to a win in TX.

Depends on whether the fascist-controlled state government allows a full and accurate count, r74.

I'm being a little (ok, a lot) more cautious...

This election isn't about Trump vs. Biden. It's about Trump vs. the American public. Trump is fucking hated like no other president ever, and the American public want him out, gone, kicked to the curb, humiliated and defeated. Nothing else will do.

[quote] Have you heard of anyone that voted for Hillary 2016 now voting for Trump?

I’m answering you in earnest and know I’ll probably be dismissed as a troll, but yes I have. Most of their reasoning is— in their words— they don’t feel Trump has lived up to the media’s portrayal of him as Most Ev0L N4ZI EVa! They’re also disgusted by the media’s partisan divisiveness and feel it is detrimental to the country. Finally a few cynical Dems who are just overall disgusted with the party.

So yes, they are out there.

Uh, no, r51.

Outstanding mail-in ballots may be more this year, but not enough to change the outcome of the known total by election night in most states.

People are fired-up this year, they're voting early in record numbers and Democrats are smart enough to know the ballots have to get in early.

Nate Silver makes a living keeping everyone in suspense.. It's statistically impossible that enough swing states will be held in mystery past Nov. 3 to change the outcome of the election.

Interesting, r76. Per CBS, Biden is currently farther ahead in both Florida and NC than he is in Georgia (which is tied).

r53 = r51.

And NO, it's not that simple. By Nov. 3, people will be able to see a swing in the mail-in ballots and where they're coming from. If 65% of mail-in ballots are still going to Biden, it's a safe bet that 65,000 of your outstanding ballots will be for Biden.

Those 100,000 ballots will also be moot if Biden wins Texas. Biden will get enough swing states beyond FL to knock out Trump Nov. 3 in all probability.

My prediction 307 trump 23 1 Biden

[quote] Trump is fucking hated like no other president ever

George W and Nixon would like a word with you.

[quote] Per CBS, Biden is currently farther ahead in both Florida and NC than he is in Georgia (which is tied).

Oh, dear.

I messed up my map - Colorado will go to Biden

I'm happy to take a $100 bet now on either fact:

1) Biden will win the election.

and

2) There will not be enough swing states in doubt to change the election past 11:59 p.m. Nov. 3.

You people are betting that NO state will announce their election results!!! 😆😂 Most of them can count their votes as they come in and FL only had 20,000 outstanding absentee ballots in 2016.

You're free to predict whomever you like, r59 and spam DL with your typically dense, right-wing propaganda epistles as much as you like.

What's telling is that no Boris on DL will put his money where his mouth is and bet me $100 that Trump is going to win.

Republicans claim that 8% of their party is ashamed to admit they're voting for Trump and that's a GOOD thing, rather than a clear indicator Republicans have fucked up and now they're in a royal mess.

[quote] [R53] = [R51].

[quote]And NO, it's not that simple. By Nov. 3, people will be able to see a swing in the mail-in ballots and where they're coming from. If 65% of mail-in ballots are still going to Biden, it's a safe bet that 65,000 of your outstanding ballots will be for Biden.

[quote]Those 100,000 ballots will also be moot if Biden wins Texas. Biden will get enough swing states beyond FL to knock out Trump Nov. 3 in all probability.

Uh, no, I am R51 but I am not R53.

I hope you’re right about us knowing by 11pm on election night. God knows we don’t need any extra suspense. I was just under the impression, for some reason, that the final counting of mail-in ballots would delay things by a couple of days. I believe you if you say that won’t be the case. I say that genuinely.

I nominate r45 for "Laziest Boris in Oz, 2020."

[quote] I’m answering you in earnest and know I’ll probably be dismissed as a troll, but yes I have. Most of their reasoning is— in their words— they don’t feel Trump has lived up to the media’s portrayal of him as Most Ev0L N4ZI EVa! They’re also disgusted by the media’s partisan divisiveness and feel it is detrimental to the country. Finally a few cynical Dems who are just overall disgusted with the party.

The way you wrote this makes me think you’re not only sympathetic to their cause but you also agree with their reasoning, R78.

I’m with R87. You “Trump will win again” fuckers need to put your money where your mouths are. It’s okay to say “I have a feeling he could win again,” but it’s only a feeling, and it isn’t backed up by any polls or forecasting. There’s absolutely nothing in any data anywhere to support this feeling. So just be honest about it—you’re talking out of your asses. And you need to back it up with money.

You know Nate Silver is full of shit when he says, "If ... if ... if, we could even get an Election Night call."

There has never been an Election Night where we didn't have a call.

Even in 2000, where the calls were called off and they started recounts, we knew the known numbers. George W. Bush had won Florida that night and he still had Florida when the Supreme Court ordered the recounts to stop.

You're a fool if you think these competitive networks aren't going to call the election and report the known votes.

"Gut feelings" are bullshit (unless you are Oracle), stick to the facts: NC: Biden 2.5 average of 8 polls FL: Biden 2.9 average of 7 polls AZ: Biden 2.3 average of 7 polls WI: Biden 6.8 average of 5 polls MI: Biden 7.0 average of 5 polls PA: Biden 7.2 average of 8 polls

Keep in mind Biden doesn't need all of these, just a winning combination. I've lived in AZ for most of my life and I have never seen a ground campaign like this year's. A persistent canvasser even made it into my gated community somehow. Some Dem PAC is tracking my VBM ballot and knows I haven't returned it yet, they send me something every day to remind me. My point is the Dems in AZ, at least, have never been this organized and determined.

I believe Dave Wasserman will call it before the networks do.

Sure, r70.

Their names are Unicorn, Yeti, Heffalump and the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

If the MAGATS follow their marching orders and all vote in-person on Nov. 3, there will be no mystery.

We'll know the size of the Republican vote and that almost all uncounted mail-ins are votes for Biden.

Some of the swing state Trumpers are gonna be too sick to go to the polls, because they have been to superspreader rallies and such. COVID is surging and worst in the areas Trump has been visiting recently. The irony of that will be interesting.

[quote] You're a fool if you think these competitive networks aren't going to call the election and report the known votes.

Agreed. BC just had its provincial election yesterday. 498000 of 700000 requested mail-in ballots returned before deadline. Those 498000 ballots are not counted until two weeks after Election Day. Still, the election was called two hours after polls closed.

I think Florida is good for Biden. I think TX, TN, GA, IA are reaches. Not impossible but unlikely.

I want AZ, NC, PA and FL and I’m happy again.

Yup, r96. It will be fascinating to see what the COVID numbers look like in one week. I bet you that that will take a chunk out of his voting numbers, and we know that his supporters are more likely to vote on election day by a 2-1 margin.

Honestly, it's a perfect shift storm for Trump, and one that he so richly deserves.

R49 was my prediction. Maybe a wet dream. Maybe a perfect alignment of the stars for Joe Biden.

Nate Silver's prediction: Either Trump or Biden will win.

Early voting totals up to 60 million. That is an astonishing 44% of 2016 turnout.

I think Biden will win both Texas and Florida.

You bitches all fucking know that not even COVID will stop the Trump Twats from voting in person.

Even if the motherfuckers infect an entire city, they will be there on November 3rd.

I'm going to avoid tv and any media until the next day. I am so anxious about this election that I may also have a couple of drinks that day.

R103, I predict that 50% of those hillbillies that attends his rallies will get sick from Covid that they won't be able to show up on Election Day.

Keep bumping this until election day. Whoever gets it right should get a lifetime supply of Red Dragon Cheese

Biden 316, Trump 222

Though if this were a sane country, it would be Biden 538, Trump 0.

I think Trump does have a lot of support but will lose seniors. His Covid mismanagement is fatal to them. Not dying beats making money in the market as motivation. Since seniors always turn out, they will give Biden a narrow win.

One fact that could cock-up the elections, r88:

Neither IA, GA, TX, MI nor PA can count their mail-in ballots until Election Day.

I'm pretty sure they're used to counting what they have by Election Night and they've all learned lessons from messy primaries.

But it's the pandemic and mail-in ballots are heavier this year.

Most states can count and even announce their vote tallies now. But the above swing states pose a much bigger risk of Pandemic-Shenanigan-Mail-in-Fuckery than Florida.

Florida is counting and announcing now. They're quick to report what they have on Election Night, even if it's less than .5% of the vote and a recount is required.

I predict I will take an extra Ambien™ and extra NyQuil® and go to bed early. Then I will get up in the middle of the night, high as a kite, and check the returns, but in the morning I will be sure I dreamed that part. I will have nightmares all night long. 🙈🙉🙊💊

IDK, R103. Trumpers aren't going to have access to hydrocloroquine, dexamethasone or the fetal cell based Regeneron. I guess they can always dose themselves with Clorox or aquarium supplies, but that's only going to get them a trip to the ER, not the polls. There's going to be a wait, a very long wait, at pretty much every polling place.

COVID will factor in. Trust. Look at what it's done to Dump's WH...and we're only getting a partial story after they spin it.

Wasserman has seen...almost enough:

[quote] A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear: 1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16 2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16. 3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls

[quote] If you're looking for a horse race narrative right now, you're not going to find it here. There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently. Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough.

Link to his tweet below.

I'm getting about 290 for Biden as well, giving Trump the benefit of the doubt in a few states just to be realistic.

I am surprised more people do not think Ohio has a good chance of flipping to Biden.

This is my gut feeling:

^ that would be a beautiful blue tsunami

Recent polls have Biden leading in Texas. If Texas goes Blue - Game Over.

The GOP governor has done everything to suppress votes but gets slammed down in court.

To whoever the troll is, I volunteer to bet $100 dollars that Trump wins. Let me know how do it anonymously and I will honor my word.

I think Biden will carry Texas and Georgia but likely lose Ohio. Florida and Iowa is hard to predict but I’m not too optimistic about them. He will safely win back the Midwest blue wall plus Arizona.

You can see what’s going on in TX and GA right now. The momentum is huge and not in favor of Dump unlike four years ago.

Yeah I’m actually more bullish on Biden in TX than in FL. Pathetic (for FL), but that’s what it’s looking like. OH could go either way.

People think the long lines at the polls are all for Biden voters.

307 Trump | 231 Biden

I don't know where you got that pic unless that's what you wish happens . I clicked on that site again and this is what I got....

Biden 290

Trump 163

R121 = troll

You are delusional. Florida and Texas are going to stay red. I think you will find more blue states turning purple. I've said it before, people in SoCal hate Gavin Newsom and are getting pissed off. People have real complaints that you all ignore. Who knows, you could be right, but, I don't feel it.

This bitch at R124.

I have both R121 and R124 blocked already.

OK, r118.

Invite me to a bet on MyBuddyBet.com or their app. My handle is Joe Blow.

You can register with a fake name, a specialized e-mail account and a Google Voice phone number to keep it anonymous like I did. The app takes your credit card info, not me. Nobody is charged until Nov. 4 and we both have to agree on the outcome.

R118 =R121 = R124 is a Russian troll or a Hillbilly Trumpster. Don't bother.

If I could see what the bitch was saying, I might get in on that bet against him, too.

R118 is the first Trumplicker to SAY he’ll bet me $100 anonymously on MyBuddyBet app that Trump will win Nov. 3.

No takers on the app, though.

Deal, R130. I'll have a look at in the morning and if it's kosher, I accept your friendly wager.

Go do one, R128. You're a dumb cunt.

Let me know if he actually does bet you, and I’ll join in. I want his money too.

I'll take your money too R132. Let's get this pool going. I'll happily take all of your money, especially if I am the only one voting and betting on Trump on DL.

I doubt r118 is going to accept my bet, let alone bets against two, more people. You’ll have to set them up with him.

If you’re betting that Trump will win, then take my $100 bet that Biden will win on MyBuddyBet RIGHT NOW, r133.

My handle is Joe Blow.

BuddyBet is an Australian platform. Find something American and one that is familiar. Your pushing it too much to seem legit.

r135 = fraud, chickenshit, troll.

YOU find something else, you lying bullshit factory!

FINALLY, we have our first admission from a certified Boris and right-wing troll on DL that Trump is going to lose this fucking election @ r135!

You held out for nearly four years with Republican lies, but you can see the writing on Trump's non-existent border wall now.

I'm taking a screenshot!

Four years ago Trump was the outside-the-box candidate, which worked in his favor. Now, the electorate has this guy’s number. His core supporters will stay with him, of course—not so much others.

I’ll go out on a limb and say Utah and Montana will be blue great blue surprises.

It will be humiliating for YamTits. He may even resign rather than provide an orderly transition.

This is why the voting must be a Blue Tsunami, so overwhelmingly Blue that he and his cronies won't have the will to fight. I want him to leave, resign in shame and never be seen again....except in a jail cell.

I'm actually going to set a reminder to come back to this thread and find R14 on election night, see if he's around or if he's conveniently switched browsers.

I think Trump will get 263 electoral votes and Biden 275. It'll be closer than we want it to be. Hopefully I'm wrong and Biden will get Ohio early on and that'll pretty much settle it.

R141, what did R14 say that you find so outlandish?

I'm really starting to worry. I don't care if I get called a concern troll. I AM concerned, but I'm no troll. The thought of Trump winning fills me with dread and sadness. It spells the end of the America I learned about in school, the America I loved. If Trump wins, WE will be the shithole country. We'll be no better than a corrupt country like Russia.

All of this early voting info being stronger than expected for Trump, and blacks supporting Biden less than they did Clinton. I'm freaking out.

I do NOT want to feel on election night the way I felt in 2016. So, I'm trying to get used to the idea that Trump may win, and we'll just have to find a way forward from there.

I can't fucking IMAGINE anyone voting Trump. It astounds me.

R14 is R11, R143.

You said basically the same thing about a similar post at R132, so I don't know why you're challenging me.

17 states have unbound electors, this is anyone's guess.

Guys, R135 et al. is posting on the "Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part IV" thread saying BIDEN is going to win by a landslide and "Trump is toast."

Over here he's saying he's going to bet $100 that Trump will win with over 300 electoral votes.

[quote] All of this early voting info being stronger than expected for Trump, and blacks supporting Biden less than they did Clinton. I'm freaking out.

You're a PSYCHO FUCKING TROLL.

R148 I assure you, I'm not.

[quote]blacks supporting Biden less than they did Clinton

Everyone knows this isn't true, right?

R150 it is true. I don't want it to be, but it is.

Yes, we know R150, it's just the usual trolls fucking around.

We should mock them more.

Oh my GAWD! What I'm HEARING! I'm freaking out!

Hairdressers in Idaho won't vote for Biden. They say they don't like his hair and they refuse to back him.

OH MY GOD THAT MEANS WE'LL LOSE EVERYTHING!

I'M FREAKING OUT!

Clinton won 89% of the black vote in 2016 and the Chicago Tribune just reported three days ago that Biden is polling at about 90% with the black demographic.

They're at the same level. Stop lying, R151.

[quote]National polling has shown Biden is on track to win about 90% of the Black vote with Trump netting about 10%. Four years ago, Trump won 8% to 89% for Clinton.

The increased turnout among Black women is more than making up for the fraction of Black men who are "proud boys" and fake-masc trumpturds.

r151 is the same, Trump-supporting sack of shit who's been spamming that story in all the political threads.

The truth is, party affiliation doesn't mean shit. VOTES mean something..

BIDEN HAS A 19% LEAD OVER EVERYONE WHO'S ALREADY CAST THEIR VOTE IN FLORIDA.

BIDEN: 58%

TRUMP: 39%

Everybody please F&F r135.

I still have no Trump supporter willing to take my $100 bet on MyBuddyBet and all Trump supporters on DL are lying, troll FAKES.

Here is another factor in Biden's favor: there isn't an army of discontented Bernie Bros that will cast their ballots for Stein or another third party. Oh yes, the dyed-in-the-wool third partiers will always vote third-party; but they have always been around. A lot of Bernie Bros were disenchanted/sexist Dems who couldn't stomach Clinton. I don't think third-partiers siphoning off votes from Biden will be nearly as much of a factor this year.

R159, but the majority of Trump voters are voting on Election Day, and were never going to early vote. So that gap is going to close drastically.

It looks close to me too. It all depends on turnout. If you’re a Democrat, vote early, even if you were planning to vote on Election Day. November 3rd is going to be MAGAt Day, and probably there will be a lot of guns brandished and screaming, honking Trump banner parades. Normally, the Republicans push early voting, but this year Trump wants Republicans to all show up in one day. It’s going to be a horrific mess with long lines, and I wonder if more voter fraud will occur on that day than on earlier days. Republicans seem to think whatever Trump says is true, and he thinks the only real way to vote is on Election Day in person. So they might put a lot more vote fixing efforts into Election Day.

I voted early because if they rejected my ballot for some reason, it gave me time to fix it.

That's not really related to my point at r159, r160, but okay

R159, sorry, my comment was actually meant for R156, who says, “BIDEN HAS A 19% LEAD OVER EVERYONE WHO'S ALREADY CAST THEIR VOTE IN FLORIDA.

BIDEN: 58%

TRUMP: 39%”

It actually looks like, a substantial portion of Trump’s 60% plan to vote on Election Day. So early voting is meaningless as any kind of estimate for Trump’s total votes.

No worries r162!

If it makes you feel better, R160, at many polling places they have to have an equal number of Democrat and Republicans working at their polling place for the entirety of the day. If you're concerned about your local or state rules, give your County Court House a call or visit their website for details. Knowing how things work, in detail, can help with your stress level.

I had to drive through a Trump truck rally on our court square to get to my BOE to early vote in Ohio. It was 4:30 on Sunday. I don't have much hope of Ohio flipping to Biden, r114.

Those fuckwits have always existed, r165. Just because they've become more vocal and obnoxious over the past five years doesn't mean much in terms of the election's outcome.

Not saying that Ohio will flip or not; but I don't think a Trump truck rally is a good barometer either way.

Sherrod Brown is convinced that Ohio will go for Biden

Those polls look legit. Most of Trumps voters will show on Election Day. Those 3 states probably will go to Trump. Although if he loses either Georgia or Florida, he can’t win the election. Biden can win without any of those three. Biden can’t win without Pennsylvania.

Looks like you found some of those “shy Trump voters,” r165!

Pres Support By Those Who've Already Voted In:

Florida: Biden: 61% Trump: 37%

Georgia: Biden: 55% Trump: 43%

North Carolina: Biden: 61% Trump: 36%

CBS/YouGov / October 23, 2020 / Online

R2 I think so too. My prediction: Trump will win Florida and North Carolina. Biden will win Texas and Arizona.

Apparently Republicans are now showing up in large numbers for early voting in Florida. Democrats trying to whip up the Puerto Rican voters there to counter the Cuban. Florida, like aways, will be a nail-biter.

Biden takes Florida, TX, AZ, PA and Michigan.

Probably Ohio too.

You can’t separate states like that. If Biden wins TX, it means he will have also won OH, IA, FL, WI, MI, PA, GA, and AZ.

Why, r174? In 2008 Obama won FL and NC and lost TX and AZ.

Biden won't win TX. Florida will be a nailbiter and it's better to assume that Trump will win in. That's how every election in Florida has gone for the last 20 years. Republican Governor, Senators, Trump voters galore.

[quote] Why, [R174]? In 2008 Obama won FL and NC and lost TX and AZ.

That’s a non-sequitur. TX and AZ were not anything resembling swing states in 2008. This year, they are. But to answer your question, it has to do with the probability that Biden will win certain states.

Look at the snake chart on 538.

Florida and Texas will stay with Trump. Ohio will stay with Trump. PA, Wisconsin & Michigan will go to Biden. Arizona will be close but it goes to Biden. Possibly NC & SC. Possibly Georgia were Biden is one point ahead of Trump as of today, but that will change.

^ CO & AZ are looking strongly blue now

If Biden is really ahead with people over 65, as several polls have reported, then Florida is going Biden and the election is over because that will also mean several other states will flip.

Also, in all of those early voting percentages, they are showing the number of voters by registration; it doesn't mean that the voting behind that matches up one for one. If there are 5% of "Democrats" who are voting for Trump and 11% of Republicans voting for Biden, (those percentages are made up just for the sake of the example), then the swing for Biden is even greater than it appears.

Historically, it's been about 10% of voters registered as Republicans who vote Democrat and vice versa, R180. How that distributes across states is unknown, though.

Exactly, R180. We know there are plenty of registered Republicans who are voting for Biden this year.

I just think that, with this election, there is a pretty good chance that the percentage of switchers is going to benefit Biden whereas it hurt Hillary. I know several Republicans who won't vote for Trump again.

I don’t fully understand the snake chart.

"I think Biden will carry Texas and Georgia but likely lose Ohio"

When did Ohio become more conservative than Texas and Georgia?

Ohio is pissing me off right now. They were promised the moon and were delivered NOTHING.

Why are they supporting this con still at this point?

[quote]Ohio is pissing me off right now. They were promised the moon and were delivered NOTHING.

I did what I could.

Ohio is a weird case. Cleveland and Columbus are super liberal, Cincinnati is trending that way, and their immediate suburbs are moving blue. But everywhere outside of that is Trump country. Remember, a good chunk of Ohio may as well be West Virginia or Kentucky.

I don't see the intensity of support for Trump here in South Carolina that I do when I go back to Ohio. It's not that Ohio is redder than South Carolina, but rather that his supporters in Ohio really really love him.

I don't see the intensity of support for Trump here in South Carolina that I do when I go back to Ohio. It's not that Ohio is redder than South Carolina, but rather that his supporters in Ohio really really love him.

I don't know that's entirely true; yes, there are pockets of Ohio - particularly those rural areas with a large amish/mennonite population that are all in for Dump - however, there are other counties in rural Ohio that are typically repig strongholds that aren't necessarily pro-Biden, but just fed up with Dump. Those areas were tough places to live in the best of times & the inability to control COVID has hit them hard.

So Ohio might surprise everyone...

Biden will win: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania (yes), Maryland, Delaware, Washington DC, Virginia, North Carolina (close, but yes), Georgia (another close shocker), Florida (not as close as some think), Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Montana.

He'll come close, but no cigar, with Ohio, Utah, and Iowa.

Biden will win.

[quote] Biden won't win TX. Florida will be a nailbiter and it's better to assume that Trump will win in. That's how every election in Florida has gone for the last 20 years. Republican Governor, Senators, Trump voters galore.

Obama won FL in 2008 and 2012/

r159 is a desperate, lying Boris who doesn't know shit about Bernie supporters.

THE DEMOCRATS' SUPPORT FROM BERNIE SUPPORTERS IS AT A RECORD HIGH>

Only 74% of Bernie supporters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Now, 89% of Bernie supporters are voting for Biden!

You really thought they would ignore what the Turd Reich is doing?

You truly need better reading comprehension skills, r192

Support for third parties is ALSO at a record low.

Greens and Libertarians are fired up to take down the Trumpster Fire:

You truly need to take back your comment that "dyed-in-the-wool third partiers will always vote third-party," r193.

They're switching to Biden this year because the stakes are too high and the memory of getting burned is more recent than Ralph Nader.

r176 is totally ignorant of the fact that those Republican governors and senators won in Florida due to VOTER SUPPRESSION, a law against convicted felons allowed to vote that disenfranchised 1.4 MILLION VOTERS until Floridians overwhelmingly passed Amendment 4 in 2018.

Simply put, Florida Republicans were able to cheat more before.

r176 is also ignorant of the 1.1 million NEW, YOUNG VOTERS Florida has added since 2016 when Trump only won by 112,911 votes.

These voters skew Democratic, just like the formerly disenfranchised 1.4 million.

And r176 is also pretending Florida isn't chock-full of seniors and retirees afraid of getting COVID and dying early.

However. r196, the Florida legislature decreed, and a district court has affirmed, that former felons must pay all outstanding fines and judgments before they may vote.

So the voters' will - as usual in fascist red states - means nothing.

Many former felons are voting anyway, but this clears the way for Fascist Florida to challenge and discard their votes.

And that only applied to about half of the 1.4 million, r199, and guys like Mike Bloomberg have given over $16 million to pay off those suppressed voters' poll taxes for them.

Yes - finally Bloomberg is putting some of his billions to good use.

[quote]So the voters' will - as usual in fascist red states - means nothing.

And you, r199, as usual, know nothing.

You only see what benefits the Republicans, not the cold, hard facts. Polls have shown Biden ahead in Florida all year and he has a 19% lead in early voting.

You're still missing my original point, r195, but I really don't care at this point

How did Obama win FL in 2008 and 2012 if it is unwinnable?

Record vote in Ohio. Ballots being scanned now. Many new or infrequent voters, which is good for Biden.

r202, I was not addressing Biden's chances in Florida - which I think are pretty good; I was addressing the specific issue that the people of Florida, who voted to enfranchise former felons, effectively had their vote overruled by their fascist legislature AND by the U.S. Supreme Court.

And I'm pretty sure they didn't mean to enfranchise only *half* of felons.

Texas is unlikely for Biden.

r205, this is such good news! Republicans in Ohio never miss an election, so I'm hopeful the new voters are Democrats.

Fingers crossed r167

This came out today on VF for those who follow Dave Wasserman (mentioned upthread). Read @ your leisure

R208, the report indicated that 1 in 4 early voters in Ohio is new or infrequent.

r211 Thank you .Sounds hopeful.

Texas is unlikely for Biden.

I heard this too, but I've also heard that TX is experiencing a record number of new voters, so I'm hoping there is a TX surprise

R190 Montana? That would definitely be a sign of a blue tsunami.

Biden will win WI, MI, AZ, NC and PA.

But don’t sleep on Arizona. It’s not out of the woods yet.

Plump will win TX, GA

But Florida and Iowa are anyone’s game.

But I think this is all going to come down to Florida.

I’d really like for this to be called on election night. MI, WI, and PA will absolutely not be called for at least a few days. So, if it comes down to them, it’s going to be a shit show.

On the other hand, FL, NC, GA, and AZ will be called on election night. If Biden wins 2 out of those 4, or even just FL, Trump has no path to 270.

Guys - Mark Meadows told Jake Tapper on national television that Donald is not going to try to control the coronavirus. They've given up, they're not even going to try. They are really going for herd mortality and they'll get it.

TELL THAT TO SENIORS IN FLORIDA AND ARIZONA. Our plan is to let you die so be careful and vote for us. Also we're cutting your Social Security and Medicare.

I predict Lincoln Project billboards on that shit.

R227 TLP better get to it. There’s a week left.

Now is the time for everybody to get off of the internet and go win this in real life.

Meant to add that plump will take OH and Biden will take WI.

which basically cancel each other out and we are back to.....Florida.

I wish some of the Bush family had endorsed Biden, at least Laura.

Dump doesn't take Ohio.

If fucking Florida jerks us around again, we'll sell it to the Cubans.

democrats have been fighting for you. They have risked and lost a lot of political capital to fight for not only the dreamers, but to fight desperately for comprehensive immigration reform to make the U.S. immigration policy more orderly, functional and fair for all immigrants.

But the republicans have fought this at every turn. They want to make legal, law abiding immigrants (even thouse with green cards) into third class citizens, or not citizens at all.

The democrats need Latinos of all stripes to band together and give them a chance to enact their policies. We see what immigration looks like under republicans, and we should try something new.

To my beautiful Latino brothers and sisters @r222

If you have social media please share @r222.

My prediction is that after it's called there will be BREAKING NEWS: Trump and family on private jet to Saudi Arabia.

You know what a media whore he is, I will not be surprised if something pops up on election day that disruptive. I say good riddance.

[quote]They are really going for herd mortality and they'll get it.

They were hoping for herd immunity but herd mortality might be more accurate.

I predict a blue tsunami and whiny lil bitch will quit ASAP

Yes, that wasn't a typo r226.

Biden doesn't even need Florida and Ohio, r219. He just needs to hold the traditionally Democratic states plus one Trump pickup like AZ — which are polling Biden about 10% right now.

Trump is toast and so are his Senators.

Biden 10% ahead

R215, what are you talking about? If Biden wins the five states you note, Florida can drop dead. They will be pointless.

Biden needs to do more than coast by. If he wins by too thin a margin, Trump and Barr will take it to the courts. So, I’m not satisfied with just winning back WI, PA, and MI and no one else should be either.

R207, that’s the same poll that was published earlier today; we’ve discussed it already. It’s one poll showing Trump up a few points. That same poll overestimated Ted Cruz’s win in 2018.

Re: Mail-in votes, Trump and Brett Kavanaugh are already saying the count should cease late on Nov 3... So let’s hope the DLer who said states like PA and WI (or was it MI?) will absolutely be called one Nov 3 by the networks... let’s hope that DLer was right.

I think that part of the election might be a fuckin shitshow.

Don't worry...they'll give up on sticking to that date when he is already behind. They'll be begging to count every late vote. It's literally an episode of Veep.

That’s a good point, R234.

OP: from your lips to God's ears...

Boris #4 never did take up my $100 bet that Biden will win.

None of my Republican friends IRL will, either. It's a good sign when Trump supporters' bullshit is so easily exposed and X percent of them are ashamed to tell pollsters they're voting for the Fanta Menace.

Can you imagine how happy most people will be if Biden wins?

There will be a huge weight off everyone’s shoulders.

The rethugs got their ruling in the Supreme Court today for Wisconsin. One down.

PA is next. This is the their only hope. They will retry this this week.

This means that every single voter needs to get their votes in ON TIME and not just postmark them.

It’s too late to mail them in. This is why they dismantled the machines. And now they got their ruling.

You have got to drive those suckers in or go early vote.

I'm an atheist, but please God in heaven let Biden win. I'm very down about Amy Crazy Barrett getting confirmed. That means I'll be losing my healthcare, and the wonderful progress we made as gays under Obama is threatened. Not to mention women's right to choose.

If Trump wins, he'll wipe out any remaining checks on his power. The country as we knew it will be over. So, please God, just that once. For me.

PA is going to be lost thanks to the massive riots and looting going on. They’re driving trucks into cops and cats are on fire in Philly. So you can already count PA out for Biden.

Didn't happen this summer; won't happen now.

Trump looks really bad because all the unrest is happening under his watch / because of him.

Exactly, r43. There’s been periodic looting and rioting in cities across the country since early summer. Yet, Trump has never gotten any traction from his bellowing about law and order and it’s not going to start happening now.

Why would anyone trust him to put a stop to this shit next year when he hasn’t been able to this year? And when these outbursts only became so frequent and so widespread under his watch? All the rioting and looting is accomplishing is highlighting the extent to which Trump has divided the country and emboldened vicious cops to increasingly frequent acts of brutality against POC.

Every time rioting happens anywhere, Boris always insists that they just handed Trump the election.

Can we see this like a week ago in Los Angeles or something?

Trump will lose, then try every trick to steal and overturn the election results. The right-wing Supreme Court will ultimately disappoint him and he will rage. Murdoch's trashy Fox will constantly bark unfounded conspiracy theories in Trump's behalf, but it won't be accepted by the electoral system.

I loathe saying it but I don't see Florida going to Biden.

I'm in Florida right now for work, and in the last ten days I've been in Tallahassee, Clearwater, Miami, Tampa and Orlando. I can tell you first hand that the Trump signage FAR outweighs the Biden signs in each city. Plus, the rabid Latino Trump supporters are out in full force EVERYWHERE, even in the upscale hotel I'm in right now in Orlando. It's bizarre because you see these obviously very wealthy older whites with their Presidential Rolexes and wives with 5 carat diamond rings mixing with these low rent, thuggish Latin guys, all screaming "TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!" It's unsettling.

Very little would make me happier than Florida going to Biden, but given my experience here I'm doubtful.

Wow this thread may need a lot of Kleenex come next week. Any of you learn from last time? Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. Don’t get complacent. If you think this is gonna be a tsunami of any color you’re delusional. Ease up y’all.

Kavanaugh's sloppily written, inaccurate dishonest opinion on the Wisconsin absentee votes by mail is their last ditch attempt to invalidate the election. He says if the ballow has not arrived it cannot be counted. That is a real gut punch. In t he past, any ballot postmarked on or before election day could be counted, and each state would decide when to cut it off. So maybe one state will say you have ten days or 7 days or five days or WTF ever. He based his opinion on a bunch of inaccuracies and assumptions that are just wrong factually. The opinion is an embarrassment. You have to wonder which clerk wrote it while Kavanaugh lay in a drunken stupor and allowed it to be filed. And who else agreed to it? BEcause Kagan when ballistic on his ass today.

r247 = Boris, r248 = Mr. Hand Boris

Why don't you ease up on the Supreme Court power grabs and Medieval, cretin rapists allowed to sit in judgement of everybody else?

Cleveland's transit authority has declared that all bus, train, and special transportation for the disabled will be free on election day and more transportation to the underserved areas will be available. It's necessary for Biden to build up a huge lead in Cuyahoga County. If the other cities in the state would do the same thing, Ohio might really be in play.

R250 so someone just says to be a little more cautiously optimistic and to stay in the moment. And you don’t like the sound of that. So now they are Boris? God must be painful living with such a narrow sensitive mind

Fortunately, yard signs don't vote.

And people who have the temerity to place Biden signs on their lawns in swing/red states are likely to have them destroyed.

I hope donald's plane crashes.

When the Supreme Court got involved in the Bush v Gore fiasco, you knew the norms were gone for good.

Just wait and see what happens when Biden is up in Wisconsin on the night of the election. The Trumpanistas will be begging to have more ballots counted.

We may start to get BS election night re States refusing to confirm/report results because of 'irregularities.'

This would come from red states that flip blue.

They don't have James Baker pulling them across the finish line this time.

It's not 20 years ago in Florida.

Try that "brooks brothers riot" shit today and we'll meet you there, with baseball bats.

Fricking CNN is covering Trump rallies from start to finish.

Then they'll have Rick Santorum to critique.

Both siderism and the horserace promotion. Advantage Trump.

It is disgusting.

[quote] We may start to get BS election night re States refusing to confirm/report results because of 'irregularities.' This would come from red states that flip blue.

I don’t understand what you’re saying here.

I believe they're saying that if the Election Night vote in PA, WI, OH, FL, etc., is close, then those states might refuse to report results and/or the Trump régime might sue to stop the count and/or withhold the tallies until they've had a chance to develop a more comprehensive strategy to steal the elections in those states.

There is a largely senior, gated community in my VA county with its own precinct (and approx 2500 households). 4 years ago, Trump won that precinct by 15 points (57-42-1). This is a well-off, white community.

Early voting is HUGE this year, and the precinct has already seen 70% of registered voters. If the diehard Trumpers are waiting until November 3 to vote, then it is very likely that this precinct will go Biden. The turnout was 74% four years ago, and it will certainly be higher this year.

If the midterms in 2018 were the Year of the Woman, this year will likely by the Year of the Senior. And they are pissed!

You know, R257 is right. It is very possible that will all the early voting (We may hit 80 million by election day,) Biden may very well be leading on election night..... and with Trump insisting the votes be counted on election night, it cloud blow up in his face. But the Dems better have their strategy mapped out for various scenarios. Because nothing could be clearer than what Kavanaugh just did. Put it together with Trump's very indiscreet comments last night and today in Michigan was he attacking Roberts or mocking him with sarcasm, or actually complimenting him in a very heavy handed, threatening way? He really expects the courts to step up and put him back in the White House. I think he may be wrong, but we better be ready. VOTE EARLY~~~deliver your absentee ballots by hand don't use the mail anymore! It's too late.

The number of ballots NOT received by next Tuesday should be relatively small. Even if some states aren't allowed to start counting the mail-in ballots until the actual morning of the election, they still are going to know the count of how many they have already received in so their reported vote percentages will take that into account. It isn't like they are only going to count until midnight, Tuesday, November 3, and then just stop!

Everyone needs to settle down.

Biden wins popular vote! Engagement will be very high in certain demos, and very low in others, but the former will be more reliable (olds) and the latter will be fair weather (youngs). The particular winning demo - as it was a waffling or losing demo before in 2016 - is older white women, who were racist, sexist, moderate, and well-off enough to dislike Obama and reject Clinton before, but are stunned by the cultural conflict since and just want Trump out of the way. The margin is not so huge as to define everything, but their numbers and participation will proportionately matter the most, and enough to overtake the right wing white men a little.

Battleground states won by Biden, but not overall blowout. Trump gets Florida. A lot of flirtation with Biden that just ends up Trump at the ballot, but Biden still has the technical win.

Initial results *might* tighten to point of being legally questioned, so its like the real mystery is if Republicans try to pull a more extreme 2000. Which was already egregious, but also something that Democrats, with power they could have wielded then, stood by and let happen. No, not fully, but still preferring the civility of the system over anything else.

If Senate is taken Democrat, its super possible it reverts Republican as soon as 2022. What a Biden admin does in 2021-2022 defines everything, because there's generations now that have memory or knowledge of, and dismay about, Obama's first two years of gridlock and tolerance of said gridlock. Doesn't mean Biden will accomplish much good this time, but if he doesn't even try, that's just a ton more ammo to demoralize voters in the future, so please desire changes if for that, at the very least. Even if he doesn't accomplish much good, and there's even a right-wing backlash 2022+, many who are already basically rather comfortable, will be made sure to continue to be that comfortable, so its no skin off their back, just a further damage and inequality for others.

If Senate is apparently Republican, its more likely that in the coming weeks that all sorts of nasty shit is attempted, and possibly succeeding. If it appears a Biden win to most, but Trump stays in, I'm not actually going to predict revolutionary riots, but definitely a broad-ranged utter distaste, distrust, and even hatred towards the government, that will spill over to Democrats for failing to bother enough to stop it, progressives for sitting out (though that's not just irrational like 2016's numbers, but crazypants this time), to supposedly moderate Republicans through Lincoln Project for doing little but memeing while they should be raising internal hell constantly. A generally worse time for most than even now.

pt 2

If I had to guess in 2016, I'd have said Clinton would win, but there's much much higher chance of Trump winning than most around me would realize. I was mocked for that, and some apologized or expressed realization of my outlook. Clinton won popular, by a non-tiny margin, but Trump won the electoral system, with the arguably biggest result being that several states the Democrats (not just Clinton campaign itself) decided to largely ignore, decided to largely ignore the Democrats. That is, hubris was the theme. Blame whatever person or group or nation you want, that was the election situation.

If I have to guess for 2020, I'll say I'm nearly certain Biden will win, but the aspect of winning is now more popularly understood to be a technical state, and this state is predicated on more political factors, sadly. So I'll say Trump has a lower chance than before, but might move radical mountains (or depending on resistance, just hills) to reject the findings. Part of this can and should, if it happens, be partially blamed on Democratic incompetence again. And the reflection would then be necessary - even if its ignored, that's the party's problem, not mine. But the bigger factor would be the increasingly open fascist (not proto-fascist present, but fascist) measures being taken to control the government. The question then becomes whether to act in total denialist civility or get revolutionary. For that, I'll just have hopes that Biden at least clearly wins instead ...because I don't think Americans even have it in them to revolt properly without breaking into several warring nations or getting crushed by a radicalized state. More likely that anyone #resistance just bows their heads and tries for more 2022 seats and winning 2024. Then see if Trump was joking about his 3 terms.

TLDR: I believe Biden wins comfortably enough (I don't assume landslide), or he better, or else all-hell. That all-hell may be almost literal, and I'm frightened of that, or it may be just more terrible than now, to which Democrats must capitalize quickly with an actual fire lit under them or they are actually entirely lost and there has to be a new political system, not sorry.

R265 this is true! And is why it is best to presume Biden will win through this early count even, and that any fuss otherwise is just strategic longer term rhetoric to make Republicans look like they have less egg on their faces.

But the volatility of politics over these years has my concern otherwise. I *think* it'll be okay. I can't trust it will be.

NEW North Carolina Post Debate Poll:

Biden 48% Trump 48%

@surveyusa, LV, 10/23-26

Gradually, Trump Is surging in NC

[quote] If the midterms in 2018 were the Year of the Woman, this year will likely by the Year of the Senior. And they are pissed!

And I bet it will be called just that. Maybe even by Time Magazine. Of course add in that both candidates are advancing seniors.

Another prediction: Deadbeat Don will once again win the white female popular vote. (Plus, it should almost go without saying, the white male vote.)

Yeah, he'll get the white male vote for sure, but I predict Biden will get the white female vote.

I hope you're right, r273.

[quote] I'm in Florida right now for work, and in the last ten days I've been in Tallahassee, Clearwater, Miami, Tampa and Orlando.

Whom do you work for—the Trump campaign? Who else is sending employees to in-person events all over covid-ridden Florida?

Trump landslide and also taking the House and keeping the Senate. Amish & Mennonites out in full force to vote a straight Red ticket. They're not counted in polls but they have thousands of voters in multiple Swing states.

Trump big rallies in Israel encouraging not only Chassidic & Orthodox but all Jews to vote Red.

FL has about 400,000 more Republicans early voting than Democrats, and that's assuming the latter all vote for Biden. Palm Beach is voting Red.

Enormous Trump trains of hundreds of cars in AZ and other states.

[quote]Biden flips and wins PA, WI, MI, FL, NC and AZ

I don’t think Biden will flip FL or AZ.

As for the Senate, I hope TX gets flipped. I’m in TX and I voted today for the Dem candidate, MJ Hegar.

Biden got so many different ways he can win without PA, whereas it appears like Trump must win PA under all scenarios. Biden will flip NC, AZ, and GA but may end up losing PA.

I doubt FL and TX will be won in the end but it will be super close.

[quote] Trump must win PA under all scenarios.

Check your math. Trump doesn’t need PA if he wins FL, NC and only one of the following: WI, MN, or MI.

Trump without PA but with FL, NC, and WI? 271.

R279, he is NOT getting WI, MI or MN. They are gone now for him. Even they are themselves acknowledging this. That he is only focusing on PA there now. The only state where they can TRY to pull off win is WI where they will do everything they can to cheat but based on the turn out it wont work either.

[quote] I don’t think Biden will flip FL or AZ.

Have you explained your reasoning to Dave Wasserman?

Yeah, I’d like to know which quality pollsters R279 is looking at that he thinks Trump can get to 271 with one of those midwestern states.

Dave Wasserman is infallible? Cook was off on several states in 2016.

Nobody is infallible or 100% wrong. Trafalgar is just ONE of MANY polls out there. Its best to look at the aggregates and some of the not so obvious details such as district level polling, other down ballot races, turn outs and other clues. Even the Biden hostile RCP aggregate still has him performing better than Clinton ever did.

Can someone help me with this kind of election calculus I keep seeing?

[quote]Those 3 states probably will go to Trump. Although if he loses either Georgia or Florida, he can’t win the election. Biden can win without any of those three. Biden can’t win without Pennsylvania.

GA = 16 electoral votes

FL = 29

PA = 20

If Biden took two of the three (GA and FL), or just Florida, why would losing Pennsylvania lose him the whole election?

Have asked this before on GLP and was ignored. Are any of the polls talking to any Amish or Mennonites? There are thousands in multiple swing states eager to vote a straight Red ticket, both men and women, and in unprecedented numbers. They've even been papped in their horse and buggies at Trump rallies.

Do you know how many vehicles showed up today for the Trump rally in AZ?

This is the kind of fuckery I expect this time around. Electors not honoring voting results. . I hope I'm wrong

R285, you're on the right track. You are correct that Biden doesn't need to win Pennsylvania if he wins EITHER Florida or Georgia (and Wisconsin and Michigan). In fact, he could still win the election without winning any of the three (PA, FL, or GA). Drumpf, on the other hand MUST win all three of them to win if he loses Wisconsin and Michigan and the ME congressional district or the NE congressional district.

Basically, Biden needs Arizona OR Florida OR Georgia OR Texas OR North Carolina OR Pennsylvania OR Ohio...literally, only one of them...to win as long as he holds on to MI and WI. Drumpf would need every single one of them.

Thanks, R288. I play around with those election maps every day, and I try to make myself be as pessimistic as possible, but Biden still keeps winning. It's probably like a ouija board, though--you can't help influencing the outcome even if you're consciously trying to be realistic.

What you say is good news to me. I believe Biden will win Pennsylvania and likely Arizona. I am not going to call any of the other swing states for him in my calculation; I just don't believe in the good sense of my fellow Americans enough to think such things.

If you haven't voted yet, DO NOT MAIL THEM. If you can, take your ballot to the Bd of Elections. Trump's postal lackey is deliberately slowing the mail, especially in minority areas and, if the Trump courts rule that ballots arriving after next Tues cannot be counted, then you're SOL. Either that or stand in line on Tues.

That's Trump's plan to win -get in through the courts.

Eric Holder @EricHolder It’s too late to use the mails. Given Supreme Court rulings I urge everyone to now vote in person; early vote or use drop boxes. Protect your health but don’t let the Court and the deliberately crippled Postal Service deprive you of your most precious civil right. Plan your vote.

I grew up in WI, still have friends there, and have volunteered to text voters the past several weekends. I feel confident that Biden will take the state. Many of the voters I've texted have already voted. The SCOTUS decision was a travesty but at this point WI Dems are well used to and prepared for GOP voter suppression fuckery and will deal with it (as the WI primary amply demonstrated). Plus, WI is sadly leading the nation in covid infection rates right now, so that does not bode well for Trump.

Clinton eked out a narrow victory in MN (where I also have family and friends) in 2016 and Biden will pull off a wider one next week. Trump's strategies of demonizing Ilhan Omar (who looks likely to cruise to reelection by a wide margin) and capitalizing on the post-George Floyd lootings and rioting (conducted mainly by right-wing agitators) has if anything backfired.

I don't have much personal knowledge of MI but Biden's poll numbers there are strong and I don't think Trump's near-applause for the Whitmer kidnapping plot is doing him any favors with anyone but super-Deplorables.

In short, I predict that the Midwest will not come through for Dump this year, thank jeebus.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

I posted this earlier on the thread, but it bears repeating: when Trump won PA in 2016, he got 20,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012. Hillary got 50,000 fewer.

So it's not like Trump had some massive turnout. Assuming Trump picks up no new votes (I can't imagine that he would), all Biden has to do is reassemble the Obama coalition. That's it.

Seriously guys, these threads are giving me heartburn.

Again, as I have asked in other threads, r293, why do we assume Trump is the guy most likely to put a stop to these incidents when they are happening NOW, under his watch, and everything he's done so far has only made situations worse? And why do we think these incidents will suddenly start motivating voters to support Trump, when he's been bellowing about law and order since spring without moving the needle for himself one millimeter?

I think these riots are symbolic of the hypocrisy of the left, especially over the summer when the pandering was excessive to this thug mentality, our own Mayor Garcetti taking the knee mask less in the middle our our second surge, democrats looking the other way. I am not saying that this will turn the dial one way or the other, but BLM sure does have some inopportune timing.

PA is a free for all right now. The GOP are jumping on it. The government there told everyone to have Thanksgiving virtually and then turns around and calls these riots peaceful protests. Even if you believed that, you should be telling people to keep their asses in doors.

Look. IMO, I think any hype about flipping states needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Remember the old axiom: Close elections are easier to steal. Florida and Georgia have notoriously corrupt voting set ups. I think Joe's gonna win, but I believe it will be somewhere around 279-290.

I also think the media is hyping stuff for something to say. I'm not counting on Florida, Texas, Georgia, to "Flip." Not with Republican governors. If they do, great. What a gift. All I care about is turnout in PA, Wisconsin and Michigan...maybe Arizona and North Carolina.

We need to fight like hell to win the Senate. We may not get McConnell out or Graham, but we can get Kelly, Bullock, Hickenlooper, Gideon, and maybe one or two others. And Gary Peters has finally pulled ahead for Michigan so he will hang on.

Doug Jones is still very tight in Alabama. We can't afford to lose him. I'm focusing on two things: Turnout and the Senate.

Now looking at Joni Ernst, and looking at Perdue and Loeffler in Georgia, Hyde Smith in Mississippi, they seem beatable. But the Trumpanistas may squak through.

"I think these riots are symbolic of the hypocrisy of the left, especially over the summer when the pandering was excessive to this thug mentality, our own Mayor Garcetti taking the knee mask less in the middle our our second surge, democrats looking the other way."

Complaining about the riots while defending Kyle Rittenhouse is symbolic of the hypocrisy of the right. Bitching about Garcetti but not caring about Trump's superspreader rallies is also symbolic of their hypocrisy.

R298 is spot on. My sentiments exactly.

The only sure-fire prediction is that there will be chaos and blood after the results. I'm scared militias or crazy young white dues will shoot up Joe's inauguration...although I think more Republicans have been mobilized to vote and a lot of the states people think Biden could flip won't be. Trump wins.

crying as I type this

R301 Fear those crazy young white dues! Bills from J Crew! Home delivery from Whole Foods! Student debt from U of Virginia loans! Verizon upgrade bills!

Biden is going to win the national by 8% He'll get over 300 in the electoral college. Trump will challenge results. This is going on until well into December...

Rallies energize your base and often people go to vote right after them

Biden leads Trump by the same percentage in Michigan that Trump leads Biden in Kansas. If you don't think it is possible for Kansas to go to Biden (I wish, but It isn't), then why are you so worried about Biden not carrying Michigan?

I think Democrats and media are PTSDed from 2016, and apt not to believe good news

A lot of Democrats believe Trafalgar’s “hidden Trump” vote theory

R304 I think folks are too worried about Trump... in the election results. He'll lose, but challenge the results. But to answer your question: Trump won MI in 2016. There's no equivalent with Kansas.

New ad, airing in Michigan. Narrated by Jeff Daniels, who is from there and a big Dem supporter.

Anyone with knowledge of Michigan know anything about this?

how do we know how these registered Republicans (and Democrats) are voting? Moreover, how do we know how the huge percentage of unaffiliated voters are voting? Current polls show that twice as many Republicans are voting for Biden as Democrats for Trump, and that seniors are supporting Biden.

BREAKING: New Monmouth poll of Georgia Biden 50% (+4) Trump 46% Ossoff 49% (+2) Perdue 47%

I have to pick up my kid from school in Pennsyltucky this weekend, dreading the number of Trump signs I'll see.

GEORGIA VOTER POLL: President -

@JoeBiden

overtakes

@realDonaldTrump

Registered voters: 45% Trump (47% in Sept.) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, high turnout: 46% Trump (48%) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, low turnout: 48% Trump (50%) 50% Biden (45%)

The Times/Sienna poll shows Biden +8 in Michigan today. That is better than Trump +7 in the same poll last week in Kansas, yet not one Republican is worrying about losing Kansas and every Democrat is worried about losing Michigan. Why? You either believe the polls or you don't. I'll repeat, everyone needs to settle the hell down.

The polls don’t curve for cheating. I believe that’s why they were so wrong in 2016. Because some of the vote totals were hacked.

I was looking at Electoral-Vote's map today and noticed that if Biden won only the strong and likely Democratic states and trump all the red states plus all the barely Democratic states, Biden would still win the EVs 279 to 259. The big IF, would be Pennsylvania with 20 EVs. Joe's ahead by 5 points there, so it could be close. On the other hand, if Joe one only a couple of the battle ground states, he'd win hands down.

Electoral-Vote's map shows that if Biden just won the strongly and likely Democratic states, and trump won all the red states plus all the barely blue battle ground states, Biden would win the EVs 279 to 259. The big IF would be Pennsylvania with 20 EVs. Biden is ahead by 5 points there, which is too close for comfort. On the other hand if Joe wins 2 of the barely blue battle ground states, he wins.

Sorry for the double post above. It wouldn't show as posted on my side.

For those of you those of you who can't get enough of this, I found this website ( not sure if it's already been shared here). It has a very detail list of early voting nationally and by state. It also shows how many have voted by party if that state keeps tabs on that. Arizona where I live does keep tabs on votes by party. Of course each state is different. Compare Arizona with North Carolina, and you'll see how they do it. As of right now, 73 million Americans have voted early, that's 53% of the total vote in 2016!

Steve Kornacki already broke down the electoral college and showed how Trump will probably win again.

And then there’s this. It’s a repeat of 2016.

Being close to winning a battleground state doesn’t equal a win which Democrats have failed to get through their heads.

Honestly, just accept the inevitable and you won’t go nuts Election night. Of course everyone should vote but don’t expect a miracle.

R319, ИДИ НА ХУЙ, РУССКАЯ БЛЯДЬ.

Here’s Kornacki today.

R319, you’re such a buffoon, just like your boyfriend, Dump.

Militia leader Stewart Rhodes says that his group will be at polling locations and is ready to kill Democrats

r323 Sweet Jeebus! How frigging damaged is that guy? Didn't he get that puppy he wanted when he was a kid? What an idiot for spilling all he did about his organization and what they plan to do. Considering how Trump has stirred the "resistance" pot for years, I'd be more surprised if groups like this didn't exist. Not only will voters be waiting in seemingly endless lines, with parched throats and bladders about to burst, now they'll have to consider strapping on a Kevlar vest. This situation is becoming Kafkaesque.

And as I've said in other threads, here are the Electoral Votes won by Democrats in the 1980s:

1980: Carter 49

1984: Mondale 13

1988: Dukakis: 111

A total of 173 EVs over THREE elections. Trump will exceed that total under any likely scenario this year. This illustrates to me how horrible this country has become. We are stubbornly segregated into red vs. blue, and there are far too many irresponsible and unthinking people who will vote for a completely unqualified and reprehensible candidate.

Let's call that "white nationalist" what he really is: A terrorist.

^ White people can't be terrorists, silly! They're just mentally ill.

Trump. It’s 2016 all over again. Biden takes 2 days off this past week while Trump hits 5 battleground states a day. He’s rallying his rural base for another win.

Trump's infecting people with superspreader rallies and leaving his supporters out in the cold. Biden isn't

R328, you should make a bet on that. Real money. Will you do it?

R330 I don't think you're calling out a human. I think it's an algorithm, truly.

[quote] Lower your expectations now folks so you won’t be depressed for 4 years

You know what? Even if I felt 100 percent certain that Trump would win reelection, I'd be depressed for 4 years when it happened. The problem isn't that Trump's victory would be a big surprise; the problem is that he's the worst president in American history, for fuck's sake. If four more years wouldn't depress and upset you, then you're an idiot, so enough with the "just be prepared and everything will be okay" nonsense.

Fortunately, I'm pretty sure it's the concern trolls who will be surprised on Election Day.

[quote] [R328], you should make a bet on that. Real money.

Why are you obsessed with this idea? I want Biden to win and feel fairly confident that he will, but I feel little need to place bets on it—especially not on an anonymous message board where it would be impossible to collect, anyway.

The mail in votes that came too late and discarded will become the new "hanging chads".

There's some weirdo who's been chasing people to bet him on some online betting thing. I have no idea what it is or what his deal is, I suppose he/she wants some datalounger's money.

There are online betting sites.

And you sound like a Trump troll—you’re not dealing in reality with your prediction. That’s why I want you to put your money where your mouth is. If you really believe in your stupid prediction, put money on it. You’re so sure Trump will win? Go ahead and bet on it. You’ll make money. Why wouldn’t you do it?

And R333, if you’re not R328, then don’t respond to me.

When the orange fucking moron is down in Florida, Georgia , Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas, you can bet they'll be counting all those votes.

What I can guarantee you is that Biden will 100% beat George Bush for senate this year!

Las Vegas Sun:

What is the ratio of men vs. women as a whole voting for Biden vs. Trump? Do we have any data on just men and women, excluding race? I'm seeing households with husbands voting for Trump for financial reasons but wives voting for Biden because "they just can't vote for Trump". I have felt fairly sure Trump would win, but the more I'm seeing this pattern it is making me think Biden might have a shot if women really show up. It's women that are the most powerful voters gender wise, yes?

Trump has men, Biden has women.

Hey keep up the gloating and hatred. It becomes you.

Yes, but there are more women than men, I think.

Trump will win some midwestern states but it won't be enough.

[quote] And [R333], if you’re not [R328], then don’t respond to me.

I'm neither r328 nor a Trump supporter; I just think your obsession with betting on the election and trying to get DLers to make bets with you is bizarre. I suppose I could make some money betting on Biden, but betting's not really my thing in general and hardly the primary thing I'm interested in where the election is concerned. Doesn't mean I don't really believe Biden will win.

[quote] I have felt fairly sure Trump would win

Why? There's not actually any rational reason to feel sure of that.

If you’re a Biden voter and you think he’ll win, I really don’t really care what you think of me asking Trump trolls to put money where their mouths are. It’s my instinctive reaction to annoying motherfucking Trump supporters high on their own farts, who’ve been cocky the last four years for NO REASON other than they got lucky in 2016. They have no reason to be confident this season and they’re annoying as hell in their assuredness.

I’m not the only one on here who wants them to place bets. There was another guy yesterday who was trying to get Trump trolls to place bets on the Australian Buddy Bet site, or whatever it was called.

If I’m annoying to you, BLOCK ME and be done with it.

r323 Why the hell isn't he being arrested for making such threats?

I don't get the "bet me" thing either, this is the first time I've ever seen it on the datalounge and I've been around for a long time.

I can see being frustrated with the idiotic trolls and baiting them. The "bet me in Australia" guy yesterday was weird. In any case, nobody bets on anything around here or if they do they keep it to themselves..

VP Biden is going to win and I've thought that since he announced, which is when I started supporting him financially and in every way I could.

In the immortal words of DL fave Robert DeNiro: Fuck Trump.

If Biden loses PA but flips Wisconsin and Michigan, he can get over the line with Arizona and NE-2 for a 270-268, both of which are looking a little more stable than PA

If Dump wins PA his chances catapult to 67 in 100 (Source: 538)

Senator Mike Lee made a big mistake. He compared Trump to “Captain Moroni” in the Mormon Bible. One Mormon on twitter compared Moroni to a Mormon Captain America, a strong guy that was self effacing and modest and just towards the people. Basically, Lee said Trump was the Second Coming. What he said is blasphemy to Mormons. They are really pissed.

I hope a bunch of Mormons haven’t voted yet.

Jon Ossoff ripped his opponent, Perdue, a new asshole at a debate last night. This was described on twitter as, “the closest thing to a West Wing moment in real life.” Perdue voted to cancel the ACA four times.

Trump just won the election with the release of the GDP number.

R355, Hello Kamchatka. Must be cold and lonely with all these lies.

Biden is doing fine in PA. Has Trump led in a poll there all year? I know this is trauma from 2016, but it's a little bit ridiculous at this point.

R355, the GDP is improved from the Great Depression 2.0. That doesn’t mean it’s great if you want a job.

I really think Trump will win Pa.

[quote] [R355], the GDP is improved from the Great Depression 2.0. That doesn’t mean it’s great if you want a job.

Yes, the GDP looks good only because we started from such a low point. And ordinary people aren't basing their votes on numbers like that, anyway—a good GDP doesn't mean much if you're unemployed, you've lost your small business, you work in an industry that's collapsing, you're about to be evicted/foreclosed on, etc. Lots of people remain or will soon be in situations like those and that is what they care about, economically speaking.

People also care that covid rates are spiking, friends and relatives are ill, and the federal government has said, "Whatever. We're through trying to deal with the virus."

Really r359? And yet, Biden has won every meaningful poll since March. Sorry you're so "concerned"...

I have a bad feeling Biden gets the popular vote and Trump the electoral.

And how would that happen, R362? Which states? And what data are you looking at to lead you to think that?

[quote]Trump just won the election with the release of the GDP number.

Please kill yourself, R355.

If we all vote, we will win.

[quote]I really think Trump will win Pa.

Based on what data?

Biden + 5 in Ohio according to Quinnipiac.

Wisconsin, PA and Michigan are gone. Trump is wasting time and money if he bothers going there. He is trying to reconstruct 2016, and it ain't working. He needs to go to Florida GA, and hope he can hang on to them, because he is fucked.

I think it is generally accepted the Trump is running the worst campaign in modern political history at this point.

people said that Hillary's campaign was bad, but she has nothing on the clusterfuck that is Trump's campaign this year.

There is no Trump campaign. It's just Trump gathering crowds of morons to adore him and laugh as he ridicules whatever and whomever he desires. It a series of ego stroking masturbation.

Biden 292

Trump 246

PA is Deplorable land and another round of rioting, looting and an incompetent government in Philly = Trump win. The state is a shithole.

The only way Trump wins the Electoral College is if he gets one or two Republican state legislatures to override the popular vote.

I predict Biden wins 357 to 143. Biden wins PA, WI, MI, IA, AZ, NC, GA and Florida all states Trump won in 2016. Plus Biden will win one district in Nebraska. The only state which I show as a tossup is Texas. Clinton got 43.4% of the vote in 2016.

I predict he takes Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. Go BIG or go home !!!

R363 it's just so close in the battleground states even where Biden is leading. Actual votes might not match polls. Also maybe I just don't want to get my hopes up.

I'll say it again. States with Republican governors will be next to impossible to flip. If it's close, it will go to Trump.

You can create your own electoral map at this PBS site. I had all my students do it and I did it as well. We should do it too and see if anyone accurately predicts the results. My map is 251-Trump 287-Biden.

Bullshit. Arizona and Texas are flipping blue.

If Biden does take it, The left cetainly will justifiably be jubilant. I believe he will concede and he will leave. However, there will be a hangover, because there will be millions of losers and scoff though you might, you will have to learn to live in a different sort of world nevertheless. A quite hostile one in many regards.

Sir Humphrey

@bdquinn

·

8m

The parties are defined by personality more than ideology these days. I bet the percentage of people with diagnosed panic disorder who are Dems is 80%+. Narcissistic personality disorder flips the opposite way.

A fantastic development r366! Ohio may not be so red after all!

Biden isn’t winning shit. DL is going to be shocked when it discovers just how fucking evil the US is.

“We’ve had to rethink the means with which to express our feelings and thoughts and ideas and opinions in the void created by a corporate culture that is forever trying to silence us by sucking up everything human and contradictory and real with its assigned rule book on how to behave. We seem to have entered precariously into a kind of totalitarianism that actually abhors free speech and punishes people for revealing their true selves.”

"If you’re a Caucasian adult who can’t read Shakespeare or Melville or Toni Morrison because it might trigger something harmful and such texts could damage your hope to define yourself through your victimization, then you need to see a doctor, get into immersion therapy or take some meds. If you feel you’re experiencing ‘micro-aggressions’ when someone asks you where you are from or ‘Can you help me with my math?’ or offers a ‘God bless you’ after you sneeze, or a drunken guy tries to grope you at a Christmas party, or some douche purposefully brushes against you at a valet stand in order to cop a feel, or someone merely insulted you, or the candidate you voted for wasn’t elected, or someone correctly identifies you by your gender, and you consider this a massive societal dis, and it’s triggering you and you need a safe space, then you need to seek professional help. If you’re afflicted by these traumas that occurred years ago, and that is still a part of you years later, then you probably are still sick and in need of treatment. But victimizing oneself is like a drug, it feels so delicious, you get so much attention from people, it does in fact define you, making you feel alive and even important while showing off your supposed wounds, no matter how minor, so people can lick them. Don’t they taste so good?"

-Brett Easton Ellis

Biden 325

Trump 213

Brett Easton Ellis is stuck in the 80s, which was the only time he was ever relevant.

[quote]But victimizing oneself is like a drug, it feels so delicious, you get so much attention from people, it does in fact define you, making you feel alive and even important while showing off your supposed wounds, no matter how minor, so people can lick them. Don’t they taste so good?

But enough about Trump's nonstop whining about the "unfair" media.

Are all of you really that confident that Biden has this in the bag? Didn’t you learn from 2016?

Trump and his minions are going to try to pull "Florida " rules. Trying to stop the counting. The reason the early voting is critical to winning is because Trump will stop count if he can and Brett Kavanaugh was in Florida for the Bush campaign back in 2000. In the on election day, and set a time limit of maybe a week or so to get the stragglers in. That's over. Of course the issue is whether the federal government should even have any role in the laws and regulations coded in every state for ballot procedures. All I can say is, DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOT. No matter where you live hand deliver it. If you can vote early, do it. Do it NOW. There ar e two days left, maybe some places will allow voting on Sunday and Monday. Find out and get your asses to the polls. Check to see of your state allows same day registration. VOTE, dammit.

r382, et al.: Please consider that the country may not be evil. Maybe you are.

I’m guessing from that sanctimonious lecture at R383, that Brett Easton Ellis has groped, or raped, a lot of women and got in trouble for it. Maybe even got kicked out of a few places.

The last day of early voting in Nevada is today.

If you’re in Nevada and haven’t voted yet, get off DL, get off your ass, go get your keys, and go vote right now.

Hahahaha. You Americans are so funny. I decided the results a year ago.

R390, he's gay.

"Pigs are flying." Iran is currently seeking a peace deal with Israel to avoid repeated US sanction. Iraq and Lebanon are included. Wouldn't happen if TPTB thought Biden would be POTUS.

Then why is he criticizing women for not wanting to be groped? That’s kind of out of his area of expertise then, isn’t it?

That post at R395 was for R390, sorry ^^

[quote] Are all of you really that confident that Biden has this in the bag? Didn’t you learn from 2016?

This is not 2016 -- a contest between the disliked and the unknown. Other than the nauseating possibility of a Trump victory this is not 2016. It can go either way. Biden is in a stronger position than HRC in 2016. More importantly, Trump is in a much worse position than he was going into the election of 2016.

B.E. Ellis is clearly angling for a prime-time anchor slot at Trump TV - which will be Former President Trump's next guaranteed-to-fail business venture.

Heads up - Obama is thinking ahead of possible polling problems.

Is AG Barr in a bunker somewhere in DC devising ways to cheat in the courts? trump has lawyered up in every state. Joe has followed suit and has his lawyers in every state.

R400 Possibly one of the most telling details of the past month or so has been NO indictments nor statements from Barr, who is keeping a low, low profile and incurring Trump's snittiness.

Either Barr is easing on out of a dead Trump administration, or he does, in fact, have a whole campaign of litigation in the works.

Stipulated: Trump 2016 was evil and appealed to hate. But that campaign was also one of the most effective Presidential campaigns ever because Trump communicated extremely well, captivated *his* audience and appealed to a core emotion—hate. In 2020 he’s mustered zero of that.

[quote]Is AG Barr in a bunker somewhere in DC devising ways to cheat in the courts?

Yes.

Agreed, R397. Comparing 2020 to 2016 is a false equivalency. Biden is a lot more liked than Hillary and he has also spent time sucking up to those idiots in WI, MI, and PA. Also, there is a big difference between Drumpf being a big-talking "outsider" and now having been the biggest liar in the world for the last four years while in office and for ignoring a pandemic. He isn't going to win; it is going to be a big majority win for Biden and the Democrats will take the Senate as well.

Ohio is in play. Biden is performing better than Clinton AND based on analysis of early voting there is much greater engagement in urban centers and surrounding blue areas.

Ohio will be reporting relatively early.

I am shocked at DL's 2020 delusions. Have you not learned anything from 2016 - clearly not.

If Trump really thought Texas was in jeopardy - he would have his ass down there for a rally. Bidens campaigning has been atrocious. Hillary ran a far better campaign than Biden, and she ran a horrible campaign.

Trump has the enthusiasm - Biden has nothing. He can barely stay awake without meds.

Verses the the "meds" that Dump uses to stay tweaked out on speed all day R407? Dump didn't have the votes in 2016 (he won only with assisted cheating which everyone knows) and certainly doesn't have the votes now in 2020. Even with rampant cheating, vote purging, attempting to throw out hundreds of thousands of votes, suing in every battleground state, Russian election interference, heckling voters at the polls, disinformation campaigns, unsubstantiated lies about the Biden family, etc. - he doesn't have enough up his sleeve this time. His poll numbers have been consistently bad from day one of his administration to now. Americans are sick of this vile conman in office and want him OUT. His enablers too.

Biden Aides See Warnings in Black, Latino Turnout

October 30, 2020 at 5:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

“Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election,” Bloomberg reports.

“Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.”

R408 thats the problem - you are believing flawed polls sponsored by biased media outlets - that have only become more and more biased over the last 4 years.

Trump has more support from latino's, african american males, than he had in 2016. He ground enthusiasm is off the charts - so much more than 2016.

Trump will win.

R407, you idiot, Trump wouldn't dare show his ugly orange face in Texas. Doing so would be having to admit that it is in play and he can't do that for sake of his own ego. He knows that if TEXAS is in play, he has a lot bigger problems in other states.

R407, if so many people loved Trump, why did he lose the popular vote?

R407, he’s too busy going to Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida.

I wish Biden could take over immediately when he wins. We'll still have to deal with Trump until January 20th.

Biden's wearing his aviators and killing his speech in St Paul.

Pure horseshit, r410.

Looking qualitatively @ recent popular vs. electoral votes, think Biden will get close, if not slightly exceed 400 EVs:

2004 (+3% diff in popular vote): Bush (286 EV) vs. Kerry (251) 2008 (+7%): Obama (365) vs. McCain (173) 2012 (+4%): Obama (332) vs. Romney (206) 2016 (-2%): Clinton (251) vs. Trump (286) 2020 Both 538's and RCP's avg = Biden +9% nationally (as of 10/29)

Latinos going for VP Biden 4-to-one in Texas right now.

[quote] Trump has more support from latino's, african american males, than he had in 2016. He ground enthusiasm is off the charts - so much more than 2016.

That is just propaganda. No one has been able to accurately gauge support among African-american males LIKELY to vote. I'd be surprised if 50 Cent and Lil Wayne were registered to vote. Kanye West has never voted before.

R419, that OP is full of shit. There is no evidence to back that up. The evidence in fact is the exact opposite.

R410 is right. But we know all the people that are so sure of a Biden victory and call anyone who disagrees with them a Russian troll (that’s part of your problem right there btw) won’t be anywhere to be seen come next week after the loss. In fact, most already believe that if it happens it will be because it is stolen and illegitimate. So basically we are fucked either way.

Link, r410. This better be good.

Where will we find you next week, R421? This thread is gonna max out before then. I want to be able to easily identify you.

R423 name a time and a place. I’ll be there

"[R407], he’s too busy going to Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida"

Other than for the first debate, he's been to Ohio once.

“Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election,” Bloomberg reports.

Guess they haven't heard of CPT.

[quote]Biden Aides See Warnings in Black, Latino Turnout

Others have already said this but we don't have any polling for the black likely voter turnout demographic, just guesses and extrapolations based on other polling. Popularity for Trump in black males has increased, which may indicate more votes. It may not, especially with younger males, given the younger demographic across all races doesn't vote much.

The Latino demographic almost always increases their support for the incumbent, even Republicans. They did it with Reagan, W and now Trump. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

It is kind of funny that the Latino demographic's support for Bush Sr dropped in 1992, but he was a wildly unpopular president.

Latinos not very disciplined voters and with Black voters it all about Black women who 90% break for Biden.

"Popularity for Trump in black males has increased, which may indicate more votes"

Based on what? The fact that some washed-up rappers endorsed him?

Yes, r429, clearly he has THREE MORE VOTES than he had last time.

Let's not discuss all the women and senior voters he's lost. That's just too much math.

[quote] "Popularity for Trump in black males has increased, which may indicate more votes"

Yes, it's 11% of the male Black vote and the rest is 89% or 90% for Biden. Look at it that way.

I have to say, for an openly white supremacist candidate to get 11% of the Black male vote is pretty fucking weird.

I think DL is delusional in the general consensus refusal to look at the cold hard facts. If Biden wins, fantastic. I f Trump wins. it might be a bitter pill to swallow but ultimately might be what is best for the US over the next few years. Anyone wholes in an echo chamber, I recommend listening to reading or listening to White but Brett Easton Ellis. He is a gay author and journalist who speaks for many gays. If you live in a community dominated by BLM protests (looting), I would try to get it under control ASAP. This group is no friend of the gays, is not helping the cause, and is antithesis of what most americans want.

Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, Catch a tiger by the toe. If he hollers, let him go, Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.

I think DL is delusional in the general consensus refusal to look at the cold hard facts. If Biden wins, fantastic. I f Trump wins. it might be a bitter pill to swallow but ultimately might be what is best for the US over the next few years. Anyone wholes in an echo chamber, I recommend listening to reading or listening to White but Brett Easton Ellis. He is a gay author and journalist who speaks for many gays. If you live in a community dominated by BLM protests (looting), I would try to get it under control ASAP. This group is no friend of the gays, is not helping the cause, and is antithesis of what most americans want.

Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, Catch a tiger by the toe. If he hollers, let him go, Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.

Are you on drugs R434 or are you just stupid? Your post makes no sense whatsoever. It's nothing but gibberish nonsense.

Yes R434 is on drugs R435.

The DL echo chamber. If you don't subscribe to group think, you are on drugs or a Russian troll. Get out of your bubble and see what is happening on the ground. DL collectively has the intelligence of a stool sample.

R432, a significant percentage of black men applaud Trump’s misogyny, crudeness, and Alpha male persona. Even More white and Latin men applaud it.

Over 100million already voted!!!!! WOW.

Biden is going to lose and especially in the Midwest. He's a non starter here. Believe the "polls" at your own peril.

r439 Astounding thus far and another 50M estimated thru Tue. Interesting analysis framing election as a business case study

r44- how are you trolls being incentivized asking for a friend?

oops - i meant r440 -r442

I think Texas has a better shot at turning blue than Florida, and I can’t believe I just typed that.

I think Biden will win both the popular vote and the EC, and in a sane, rational world it would be a blowout. But unfortunately this country has just enough racists and fuckwits to make the race closer than it should be and I’m scared the results will be tied up in the courts for weeks.

The only way Trump Isn’t going to drag this out in the court is if there’s a huge landslide against him. Too many of these states are nail biters. If he can get all the close races thrown out, he’s going to win. Expect to lose some close states whether Biden wins them or not.

Linda G and other psychic predictors have said they keep seeing a woman card as being an important element. Linda and others don’t know who she is or why. Linda posted Saturday, and there was that woman again.

If Trump drags this through court, his term still ends on January 20. If no one takes the oath of office, Nancy Pelosi will be acting President until there’s a settled President.

R445, I also think this election will end up in court fights. PA is especially worrisome as the GOP led state lawmakers and election commissioners already plotting to steal this state for Trump. Unless Biden flips AZ/NC/GA, he is not getting the win easily.

The nasty ole "I want my pussy grabbed" by poorly educated whstupidity. that are enhancing their enthusiasm for Trump is evident. The "I don't know the prices of soybeans and corn in Iowa" is being rewarded for her stupidity.

^white women

Auto-spell screw-up

I predict that on election night Steve Kornacki will piss his khakis on live TV.

R441, that's a really interesting analysis. That's been my argument all along - I can't see Trump getting any voters that he didn't get in 2016, and I can't imagine him getting more new voters than Biden. So if turn out is at a record, then Biden wins.

Everything we are seeing so far indicates the turnout will blow away 2016.

From Twitterverse this am - new NBC News/WSJ poll shows Biden leads 61 percent to 35 percent among early voters, but Trump leads 61 percent to 32 percent among Election Day voters. Did more calcs, so assuming 100M early voters and +25M on 11/3, the Biden/Trump ratio = 58%/42%; if +50M (which is being forecasted): 54%/46%

[quote] I f Trump wins. it might be a bitter pill to swallow but ultimately might be what is best for the US over the next few years.

HOW exactly do you think it might be best? What exactly has happened during the past four years of Trump that lead you to believe four more years would be anything other than a disaster? Please support your argument with some evidence.

[quote] Anyone wholes in an echo chamber, I recommend listening to reading or listening to White but Brett Easton Ellis.

Huh?

[quote] If you live in a community dominated by BLM protests (looting), I would try to get it under control ASAP.

I'm not sure that anyone's community is being "dominated" by looting on an ongoing basis, but how do you suggest we "get it under control"? If you think reelecting Trump is part of controlling it, please explain why. Makes no sense to me, since he's already in office, this shit has blown up under his watch, and despite his bellowing about "law and order," he hasn't actually done anything effective to end rioting and looting. I and others have posed this question numerous times in various political threads and so far none of our "gays for Trump" (or whoever you are) has provided an explanation as to WHY those concerned about riots and looting should want Trump in the WH.

[quote] This group is no friend of the gays, is not helping the cause, and is antithesis of what most americans want.

They're certainly a better friend of the gays than the Trump administration (some of the founders and leaders ARE gay). As to what most Americans want, let's see some data to support the notion that they're against BLM, peaceful protests, and police reform of some sort. I think the wide cross-section of Americans who have showed up to participate in protests indicates that there is no such data. Of course nobody wants to see businesses in their community looted or burned down, but that stuff is mostly being done not by the protesters, but by opportunists or by white supremacists and alt-righties who just want to stir up shit and smear the left in the process. (See link for one example of many.)

Biden 290, T-Bone 247. (I don't know what Maine's split vote is going to do.)

I hope it's true, but I don't have faith.

This is funny: "Karens" prefer Biden

😬.

r55 Not realistic model. For a start, Trump is more likely to win PA than WI, which would give him the win.

Smart money is on Biden breaking 300 in EC.

Worst case scenario, based on the above map... Biden loses PA but gets WI and AZ. 270.

My prediction or worry, is that the election isn’t decided until days after due to mail-in ballots. I started a thread about it.

Gee, r458, no one else in the world has thought about that, or posted about it here, or written one million articles about it in the press. Thank god you started a thread.

R459 I didn’t see a thread about it, asshole. And yes I searched.

All the latest polls show increased momentum for Biden in IA, GA, FL, NC and TX.

[quote] [R459] I didn’t see a thread about it, asshole. And yes I searched.

Oh, for fuck's sake. There's discussion and debate right here in this thread (and in virtually every politics thread on DL) about whether the election will be called on Tuesday night or the ballot counting will go on for days. I think there are at least two threads here devoted to the topic of how Trump may be planning to declare himself the winner on Tuesday, regardless of how many ballots remain to be counted. And the issue has been discussed in the media for months now.

You don't need to use the search feature to figure this out; just scroll around a little bit and try actually reading the threads you post in.

The Bible Codes make their prediction =

No one cares about the Bible Codes, freakshow.

R464 Just don't go crying for the next 6 months when they're

proven right again (as they have been in every previous US election).

R465, the ‘bible codes’ have been shown to be nonsense, over many years now. Go and do some reading on the subject.

Where is the official election results thread?

I am living in Asia. Imma go to sleep now. Good luck America!

hjhhhh

Here, R467

Who will get the closest?

Hey asshole @R12: guess who's fucking nuts now.

My prediction was a hell of a lot closer to the mark than your wild ass fantasies.

Hey, Bible Codes guy/r465, what happened to the famed codes this year?

My post at R68 isn’t looking too bad right now.

R68 only missed Biden winning GA

R21 Here: 😝

R63 here. I was not far off either!

So who had Biden 306 - LOSER Trump 232?

You nailed it!