RCP's Poll Averages 2016 vs 2020

Their averages are hideous. They pick and choose which polls are included in calculations. Of course with intent to skew results towards GOP or GOP-aligned pollsters. Also their definition of "battleground" changes from one election tot he next.

The only reason I use them is to see how Biden doing with the hostile pollsters. And despite all of the above he is still performing better than Hillary ever did.

Trump needs to sink lower than 39%. Please kick that into his shitfuck face please, sensible people; the world is begging you.

Pennsylvania

2016 Clinton RCP 46.2 Trump 44.3 = 90.5 FR 47.5 48.2 = 95.7

2012 Obama RCP 49.4 Romney 45.6 = 95 FR 52.9 46.6 = 99.5

2008 Obama RCP 51.9 McCain 43.7 = 95.6 FR 54.5 44.2 = 98.7

2004 Kerry RCP 48.2 Bush 47.3 = 95.5 FR 50.9 Bush 48.4 = 99.3

As you can see, everyone outperformed their PA. Clinton outperfomed hers by 1.3%, the problem that election was that there were a lot more undecided or third party voters that broke mostly for Trump, giving him a 3.9% overperformance. As you can see from the numbers above in 2016 9.5% were polling for third parties or were undecided, the rest of the years the two primary parties were polling above 95%, way less undecideds/thirdparty-voters.

This year, as of today the RCP Polling Average stands at: Biden 49.5 Trump 44.6 = 94.1

Because everyone of both parties from the last four elections outperformed their PA average, it stands that the same will happen this year. If Biden gets 49.5 of the vote he wins it because in any year the two parties got 100%. The closest was in 2012 were third party voters represented only 0.5%.

Wisconsin

2016 PA Clinton 46.8 Trump 40.3 = 87.1 FR Clinton 46.5 Trump 47.2 = 93.7

2012 PA Obama 50.4 Romney 46.2 = 96.6 FR Obama 52.8 Romney 45.9 = 98.7

2008 PA Obama 52.8 McCain 41.8 = 94.6 FR Obama 56.2 McCain 42.3 = 98.5

2004 PA Kerry 46.8 Bush 47.7 = 94.5 FR Kerry 49.7 Bush 49.3 = 99

In Wisconsin, more than 12% were not polling for the candidates from the two parties. Huge number that mostly broke out for Trump, giving him an overperformance of 6.9%. Clinton underperformed (the only State were she underperformed her PA average btw) by 0.3%.

As of Today it stands

Biden 49.3 Trump 44.7 = 94

Considerably less undecideds/thirdpartys.

Michigan

2016 PA Clinton 45.4 Trump 42.0 = 87.4 FR Clinton 47.0 Trump 47.3 = 94.3

2012 PA Obama 49.5 Romney 45.5 = 95 FR Obama 54.2 Romney 44.7 = 98.9

2008 PA Obama 52.5 McCain 39.0 = 91.5 FR Obama 57.4 McCain 41.0 = 98.4

2004 PA Kerry 48.7 Bush 45.2 = 93.9 FR Kerry 51.2 Bush 47.8 = 99

Another State that had in 2016 more than 12% polling for 3rd/undecided, they mostly broke out for Trump giving him a 5.3% overperformance. Hillary still outperformed her PA by 1.6%.

As of today the PA are

Biden 50.4 Trump 42.6 = 93

Still a rather high number of undecideds (7%), but Biden polling above 50%.

Bump