Hello and thank you for being a DL contributor. We are changing the login scheme for contributors for simpler login and to better support using multiple devices. Please click here to update your account with a username and password.

Hello. Some features on this site require registration. Please click here to register for free.

Hello and thank you for registering. Please complete the process by verifying your email address. If you can't find the email you can resend it here.

Hello. Some features on this site require a subscription. Please click here to get full access and no ads for $1.99 or less per month.

Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part III

Apologies if someone already started one (I checked); Part II reached 601 and was closed.

by Anonymousreply 590October 24, 2020 11:09 PM

.....

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 1October 19, 2020 4:10 PM

Someone had just posted a USA today article warning of a Trump "surge" in FL and PA, but with Biden still leading overall. The article was relying on 538, which doesn't seem to show any such surges today, and RCP, whose figures for those states specifically I wasn't able to find. Enlightenment, anyone?

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 2October 19, 2020 4:10 PM

MSNBC was talking this am that Trump campaign is betting on PA.l

by Anonymousreply 3October 19, 2020 4:15 PM

PA will decide this election.

by Anonymousreply 4October 19, 2020 4:16 PM

Oddly enough one of the most comprehensive analysis of the direction the election is taking comes out of Canada.

Electoral College,State by Sate polls,...all that and more.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 5October 19, 2020 4:19 PM

The most recent PA polls have averaged Dem +6. R's have not come within margin of error in any of them.

by Anonymousreply 6October 19, 2020 4:20 PM

I asked this before in a thread, but what are the decent polls of swing states? I check 538 for individual states, but their listed polls that are ranked higher than "C" are few and far between. Are analysts getting better information? Is Nate S. not listing everything? Internal polling?

by Anonymousreply 7October 19, 2020 4:25 PM

I guess R2 is referring to this article, but I didn't see the person who posted it.

USA Today claims they average RCP and 538 to get their own average, but they're off by a few percentage points in every state they reported on, so I'm not sure what the point of it is.

We already know Iowa, Florida and Ohio are too close to call, that's all they're saying, but they're spinning it as though Trump has made gains when he hasn't.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 8October 19, 2020 4:28 PM

Central PA loves Biden!

I had no idea that Central PA was so gorgeous. It looks like a dream place to live. It may be an area that I would consider moving to now.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 9October 19, 2020 4:29 PM

[quote]USA Today claims they average RCP and 538 to get their own average, but they're off by a few percentage points in every state they reported on

R8, do you mean the actual averages of RCP's and 538's numbers are off (i.e. above) by a few percentage points from the ones USA Today represents in that article?

by Anonymousreply 10October 19, 2020 4:33 PM

[quote] PA will decide this election.

I doubt it. We won’t have results for PA, MI, or WI on election night, and I’m thinking the election will be called for Biden without them, after he wins FL, NC, and AZ. And we will know those results on election night.

by Anonymousreply 11October 19, 2020 4:38 PM

FL and NC are tied and AZ could be within the margin of error. I doubt that Biden will win all three. Florida has trended Republican. It is likely that Trump in fact will win there.

by Anonymousreply 12October 19, 2020 4:45 PM

And FL is more crooked, I believe, than AZ or NC.

by Anonymousreply 13October 19, 2020 4:46 PM

According to Trump the Washington post is working on a “big story”. I’m nervous.

by Anonymousreply 14October 19, 2020 4:52 PM

Florida will be rigged just like it was in 2000 and 2016. We shouldn't count on it at all.

by Anonymousreply 15October 19, 2020 4:53 PM

Not the person you're asking r10 but I think they mean USA Today's average is off.

If you average Ohio it should be Biden +0.7, but USA Today says it's Trump +0.3. Iowa should be Biden +0.7 but they have Biden +0.8.

They claim they added in a new Iowa poll but that doesn't explain the discrepancy with the Ohio average.

by Anonymousreply 16October 19, 2020 4:56 PM

Wall Street journal, not the post. It’s probably an op-Ed editorial that’s really nasty about Biden and China. Is that why the Biden campaign is going dark this week? We’re fucked

by Anonymousreply 17October 19, 2020 4:59 PM

I think people have made up their minds. Very few ppl are going to change their votes now regardless of any dirt thrown by either side. Also, ppl are getting more immune to these October surprises after 2016. The Trump headline "Biden family is corrupt" if it wasn't coming from Trump. Pot calling kettle black, even deplorables can see through that.

by Anonymousreply 18October 19, 2020 5:11 PM

R14 whatever they have to say won’t work.

by Anonymousreply 19October 19, 2020 5:14 PM

[quote]Is that why the Biden campaign is going dark this week? We’re fucked

I'm not finding anything about the Biden campaign "going dark" except for a story in The Federalist (right wing) that complains that Biden won't answer any questions about the Hunter story. But his campaign says it's "about debate prep" (for Thursday night).

by Anonymousreply 20October 19, 2020 5:18 PM

Here are the current early ballot return stats from PA. Registered Democrats have returned four times as many ballots as registered Republicans. The *rate* of return is roughly 3:2 (because so many more Democrats requested early ballots and so many more Republicans plan to vote on Election Day). NB: Bucks Co. still has a lot of ballots to return!

Democrats 662,189

Republicans 160,938

Minor 5,331

No Party Affiliation 71,076

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 21October 19, 2020 5:27 PM

This was always going to be the endgame play. Hopefully the Biden campaign is prepared for whatever this is, even if it’s true or not. Remember the comey letter came out 10 days before the election and that shifted the race. Where’s bill Barr? Why has he been in hiding for 3 weeks?

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 22October 19, 2020 5:30 PM

[quote]"I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that's going to make him almost an impotent candidate,"

"Impotent," anyway, is definitely Trumpian projection.

by Anonymousreply 23October 19, 2020 5:38 PM

R17, the campaign is not "going dark this week." Biden is preparing for the debate, Harris is out campaigning, and Obama will speak in Philadelphia on Wednesday.

by Anonymousreply 24October 19, 2020 5:42 PM

What could Biden be accused of that Trump hasn’t been accused of already?

by Anonymousreply 25October 19, 2020 6:49 PM

Behind in Polls, Republicans See a Silver Lining in Voter Registrations

Democrats lead in overall numbers, as well as early voting, but voter registration gains in three critical states have given Republicans a cause for hope.

By Stephanie Saul

Oct. 19, 2020

Updated 1:33 p.m. ET

With President Trump trailing in public polls in nearly every major battleground state, Republicans are pointing to what they see as more promising data: Updated voter registration tallies show that Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in three critical states.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, Republicans hope that gains in voter registration in the three states — Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — and heavy turnout by those new party members might just be enough to propel Mr. Trump to a second term.

“The tremendous voter registration gain by the Republicans is the secret weapon that will make the difference for the Republicans in 2020,” said Dee Stewart, a Republican political consultant in North Carolina.

Overall, Democrats retain a lead in total registrations in those three states and hold a significant advantage in early turnout. Democrats also have picked up voters in Arizona, a state Mr. Trump won by 91,000 votes in 2016 but where Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic presidential nominee, now leads in the polls. In New Hampshire, another battleground where public polls also show Mr. Biden in the lead, Democrats have overtaken Republicans in the registered voter count for the first time since 2010, now leading 332,000 to 310,000. Voter registration numbers alone are not predictive about the outcome of races: Democrats had a surge in voter registrations in 2018, and went on to win the House of Representatives but lost some races in key states where they had an overall registration edge. Democrats also led Republicans in voter registration in several key states in 2016 that they ended up losing. Party registrations are driven in some states by local and congressional races as much as the presidential race, too.

The Trump-Biden contest this fall may be driven less by incremental changes in registration than by who turns out to vote, and how much they want the president to have a second term or not. And the difference of a point or two in voter registration only makes a difference in a close race.

Analyzing voter registration — and how it might affect the outcome of the looming election — is also complicated by the fact that a number of states permit same-day voter registration. In addition, at least six battleground states — Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin — do not break down voter registration by party, though Democrats point to some perceived gains there.

In Georgia, for example, of the 800,000 voters who have registered since 2018, 49 percent are people of color, according to the organization Fair Fight, which was founded by Stacey Abrams, a Democrat who narrowly lost the race for governor in the state in 2018.

...

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 26October 19, 2020 6:52 PM

“Those are Democratic-leaning voters,” Ms. Abrams said during an appearance last week with Jill Biden, Mr. Biden’s wife, in suburban Atlanta, where early-voting turnout is setting records.

In their optimism regarding the registration data, Republicans point first to Florida, the largest battleground state, which has 29 electoral votes.

Polls show Mr. Biden narrowly leading in the state, which Mr. Trump won by 113,000 votes in 2016, but Republicans say the increase in registered voters there has the potential to give the president an edge.

In data released last week by the Florida secretary of state’s office, Republicans had narrowed the registration chasm with Democrats to 134,000 out of 14.4 million voters — fewer than 1 percent. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, lost the state to Mr. Trump, Democrats held a 330,000-voter advantage.

Mac Stevenson, a Republican political consultant in Florida, said the increase in registration could be viewed only as a positive sign for Republicans.

“I think it augurs that there’s going to be increased Republican turnout, but you have to balance that against the fact that everyone’s turning out more,” Mr. Stevenson said, pointing out that Democrats have historically lagged in turnout.

Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, said the registration numbers in Florida reflected a significant effort by Republicans.

“They have made it clear that, despite the pandemic, they were going to still knock on doors and register voters,” he said.

At the same time, Dr. Jewett said, Democratic voter registration was probably handicapped by a protracted court battle over whether felons would have to pay outstanding fines to restore their voting rights.

“I think Democrats were somewhat hopeful that there were going to be more felons that regained voting rights and actually registered,” he said. “That ended up not being a huge boost.”

In Pennsylvania, a state Mr. Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2016, Republicans also cite gains stemming from their get-out-the-vote efforts. Republicans went door to door and set up booths at gun shows and supermarkets despite the coronavirus crisis.

“We were plowing the fields and they weren’t out there,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania. “The Democratic groups didn’t get back on the street until Labor Day. They were more skittish about it.”

Mr. Nicholas notes that, despite the registration numbers, population trends in the state benefit Democrats, adding that a growing number of people are registering to vote without declaring a party affiliation.

...

by Anonymousreply 27October 19, 2020 6:53 PM

Recent figures from Pennsylvania elections officials show that Republicans have added 174,000 voters since 2016, while Democrats lost 31,000.

Democrats said they were focused on mobilizing existing voters rather than registering new ones, but they also pointed to data from TargetSmart, a Democratic polling firm, suggesting that newly registered voters in Pennsylvania were more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.

Brendan Welch, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said that Republicans’ gains could be traced to voters who were previously registered as Democrats but who had voted Republican for years, and cited Republican registration increases in counties that Mr. Trump carried in 2016.

“These are mostly the kind of folks who have been registered Democrats since the days of Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford, but who have been voting Republican since the days of George Bush vs. Al Gore,” Mr. Welch said.

A similar dynamic may be at work in North Carolina, where Republicans have narrowed the gap in registrations. Records show Democrats lost 136,000 voters since 2016 while Republicans gained 100,000, though Democrats still lead in overall registrations by 400,000, with 2.6 million Democrats and 2.2 million Republicans.

The Democrats’ overall loss in the state stems from a 2019 purge of inactive voters that disproportionately affected Democrats, said J. Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College in North Carolina. Some 235,000 Democrats and 146,000 Republicans were removed from the rolls.

Since 2016, Dr. Bitzer said, Democrats have shown gains by another metric — the number of newly registered voters in the state.

“The national narrative of simply taking the net numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans in this state belies the fact that among new registered voters, Democrats have, in total, held their own against Republicans,” he said.

Even so, in a state that Mr. Trump won by about 173,000 votes in 2016, every vote is important. And Tim Wigginton, a spokesman for the North Carolina Republican Party, said the voter registration numbers were an overall plus for his party, particularly when combined with unaffiliated voters and registered Democrats who vote Republican in presidential races.

“I think it’s definitely a positive sign for Republicans,” he said.

by Anonymousreply 28October 19, 2020 6:53 PM

The Russians must have dug something up on Hunter or joe and gave it to trump. Trump said he handed it over to the media yesterday. Maybe that’s why trump hasn’t even been trying to win because he has this last minute scandal to use like he did last time. It’s going to change everything.

by Anonymousreply 29October 19, 2020 6:55 PM

[quote] Florida has trended Republican.

No, it hasn’t. Florida has been the epitome of a swing state for at least a couple of decades now. It’s about as evenly split between Democratic and Republican (at least when it comes to Presidential elections) as you can get.

FL wasn’t “rigged.” DL loves to throw that word around. It was tight, tight, tight in 2000 and Gore probably actually won it. SCOTUS ended the recount. That’s not “rigging.” And as for 2016, half the people on this site thinks the votes were hacked and altered, and there’s really no point in entertaining that idea.

by Anonymousreply 30October 19, 2020 6:57 PM

[quote] The Russians must have dug something up on Hunter or joe

You mean "fabricated".

R29, stay hopeful. Maybe we'll fall for it again. "Lock her up" is back. Rehashing the oldies may work, right?

by Anonymousreply 31October 19, 2020 6:59 PM

Early voting in FL. From the Today Show.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 32October 19, 2020 7:03 PM

The USA Today surge story is bullshit...538 says Biden still leads FLA by about 4%. Too close for comfort but the race has been pretty stable down there.

by Anonymousreply 33October 19, 2020 7:05 PM

There havent been enough recent polls from FL to warrant a panic. The only polls showing tight races have consistently been GOP's C-rated Rasmussen, Trafalgar and few smaller ones. All others show very little shift yet. Lets wait and see when the next batch of polls drops.

by Anonymousreply 34October 19, 2020 7:07 PM

Florida polls and weighted average.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 35October 19, 2020 7:08 PM

If Biden was a criminal mastermind he would not have been chosen by Obama’s people to be VP. Those VP vets look thru every inch of a person (unless you’re Sarah Palin). IIRC there was some concern with how much Hunter got paid but it wasn’t an issue obviously. Biden has released all his tax returns. I’m not sure what the Russians/trump could possibly dig up unless they just completely make something up or it’s more Hunter shit.

I thought Hunter was going to be a huge liability, but so far it doesn’t seem like that’s the case. We will see.

by Anonymousreply 36October 19, 2020 7:10 PM

Jon Ossoff on Ayman this hour.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 37October 19, 2020 7:14 PM

Democrats could win big in Georgia

A Southern triptych

Republicans bet on Trumpism. Democrats aim for moderation in a fast-changing state with two Senate seats and 16 electoral-college votes hanging in the balance

United States

AT A RALLY in Macon, Georgia on October 16th, President Donald Trump trotted out his greatest hits: “globalists...bleeding America dry”, the “radical left...flood[ing] your communities with criminal aliens”, “Mexico is paying for the wall”, and confident predictions of victory. Mr Trump may have seen the rally as a triumph. In fact it was a warning sign, both for his campaign and down-ballot Republicans. For most of the 21st century, Georgia has been safely and solidly Republican. This year Democrats could win not only its 16 electoral-college votes; they could also flip a pair of Senate seats, shattering Republican hopes for retaining control of the chamber.

No Democratic presidential candidate has won Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. But it is a vastly different state today than it was then. In 1990 its population was just over 71% white, with few Hispanics and Asians. Today non-Hispanic whites comprise barely half of the state’s population. Over the past 30 years Georgia’s Hispanic population has grown roughly ten-fold; its Asian population has more than quintupled; and its black population has grown at a much higher rate than whites. Almost one in three Georgians is African-American, compared with roughly one in four in 1990.

Much of that growth, both in overall numbers and in diversity, has taken place in Atlanta and the area surrounding it. Just under 353,000 people lived in Gwinnett County, for instance, just north-east of Atlanta, in 1990, and nearly 316,000 were non-Hispanic white. Since then Gwinnett’s population has roughly tripled, while its share of non-Hispanic whites has fallen to just over 35%. Georgia’s electorate is also younger than average, further bolstering Democratic hopes.

Demography is not destiny, though, or at least not in the short term. These trends were already in place in 2016, when Mr Trump won Georgia by just over five points. The Economist’s forecast has Mr Trump slightly favoured this year, though other polling averages show Joe Biden holding a small lead. Either way, the race is close. Mr Trump’s obstreperous nativism may be a poor fit for Georgia’s increasingly diverse, well-educated suburban population. But Republican candidates probably could not reject it even if they wanted to.

That dynamic is evident in the state’s senate races. This year, unusually, both senate seats are up for grabs. David Perdue is seeking his second full term, while five candidates are competing in a special election caused by Johnny Isakson’s resignation in December 2019. Mr Perdue—first-cousin to Sonny Perdue, who served two terms as Georgia’s governor and is currently Mr Trump’s agriculture secretary—ran in 2014 as a savvy business conservative in the Mitt Romney mold. He had held senior positions at Reebok, a shoe company, and Dollar General, a discount store that thrived during his tenure

He probably would have thrived in an un-Trumpified Republican party; Mr Perdue always seemed more comfortable in a boardroom and suit than a pick-up truck. But he has been among Mr Trump’s stauncher Senate supporters, voting with the president 95% of the time.

He is running against Jon Ossoff, a moderate 33-year-old documentary-film producer from the Atlanta suburbs. In 2017 Mr Ossoff narrowly lost the most expensive House race in history (he and his rival, Karen Handel, spent more than $55m) in the 6th district, where he grew up. He finished first in the jungle primary—which pits candidates of all parties against each other—but because he failed to win more than 50% of the votes, the election went to a runoff (Ms Handel served a single term before she lost to Lucy McBath, an African-American Democrat who currently holds the seat).

...

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 38October 19, 2020 7:18 PM

...

Mr Perdue holds a narrow and unsteady lead. His campaign has revealed something of what old-school Republicans think they must do to tap into Mr Trump’s most fervent supporters. One of his digital ads featured an image of his opponent, who is Jewish, with an artificially lengthened nose. The image pictured Mr Ossoff next to Chuck Schumer, who is also Jewish, and accused Democrats of “trying to buy Georgia” (Mr Perdue’s campaign blamed an outside vendor and took the ad down). While introducing Mr Trump, an angry-sounding Mr Perdue referred to Kamala Harris as “KA-ma-la or ka-MA-la or Kamala-mala-mala, I don’t know. Whatever.” He and Ms Harris have spent the past three years in the Senate together.

The other senate race features Kelly Loeffler as the incumbent. Georgia’s governor, Brian Kemp, appointed her to fill Mr Isakson’s seat until the special election over the objections of many Georgia Republicans, who preferred the Trumpier Doug Collins, also seeking the seat. Both Mr Collins and Ms Loeffler trail the field’s top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King junior and senior both preached. If elected, Mr Warnock would become Georgia’s first African-American senator. But Mr Warnock’s best polls show his support topping out in the low 40s, and most of them show the two Republicans’ aggregate support exceeding his—giving anxious Democrats flashbacks to Mr Ossoff’s fate in 2017.

Mr Kemp may have believed that Ms Loeffler, a wealthy business executive, would fare better among suburbanites and women than Mr Collins. But that analysis overlooked the dynamics of running as a Republican in 2020. Ms Loeffler has also spent the campaign courting the president’s base. One of her ads featured a man approvingly calling her “more conservative than Attila the Hun,” followed by a shot of an Attila-like figure grunting plans to “attack big government” and “eliminate the liberal scribes.” She has touted her endorsement from Marjorie Taylor Greene, a congressional candidate and conspiracy theorist who believes Muslims should not serve in government, has called George Soros a “Nazi”, and said African-Americans are “slaves” to the Democratic party (Ms Greene will probably represent Georgia’s deeply conservative 14th district in the next Congress).

Like Mr Perdue, Ms Loeffler might have been a typical pro-business Republican in a less Trumpified party. She may in fact have helped attract the sorts of voters—suburbanites and women—now deserting the party in droves. But that is not where incentives lie this year. She and Mr Perdue have lashed themselves firmly to Mr Trump’s coattails, and appear likely to rise or fall as he does.

by Anonymousreply 39October 19, 2020 7:18 PM

Kornacki today.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 40October 19, 2020 7:28 PM

{quote]Those VP vets look thru every inch of a person

I can confirm this.

by Anonymousreply 41October 19, 2020 7:50 PM

[quote] What could Biden be accused of that Trump hasn’t been accused of already?

Whatever it is, I’m sure we’ll hear all about it right after we hear his blockbuster news about Obama's birth certificate which he told us we’d hear in a couple of days. That was eight years ago.

by Anonymousreply 42October 19, 2020 8:30 PM

R21 -there are lot of us in Bucks are voting in person on Election Day.

Newest Trafalgar poll shows Biden only leading PA by 1.1 percent. MOE - 2.96

Its funny DLers discount trafalgar because of their C- rating given by Nate - when they have by far been the most accurate pollsters both in 2016 and 2018.

by Anonymousreply 43October 19, 2020 8:46 PM

r20 Joe is hiding until the debate. Jill is doing some campaigning - she is scheduled to be in bucks county - in about 10 minutes..

by Anonymousreply 44October 19, 2020 8:48 PM

Fox News really talking about the WSJ story that is supposedly breaking tomorrow regarding Joe Biden.

Wonder if they found another Tara Reade and if Trump will be bringing her to the last debate?

by Anonymousreply 45October 19, 2020 8:51 PM

When is someone going to hack the Trump kids phones?

by Anonymousreply 46October 19, 2020 8:52 PM

What WSJ story? If people fall for this shit, they will absolutely have the country they deserve. I’ll have no sympathy.

by Anonymousreply 47October 19, 2020 8:55 PM

R43, LIES!

by Anonymousreply 48October 19, 2020 8:56 PM

R43, I’m shocked that brain tumor hasn’t killed you yet. Shut the fuck up, moron.

🙀

by Anonymousreply 49October 19, 2020 8:56 PM

Why is it that it's the GOP that always slings the mud by springing some new story in October? What about the Dems? Do they have anything to deploy?

by Anonymousreply 50October 19, 2020 8:57 PM

R48/R49 see below..

Also Trafalgars Wisconsin poll just came out... Biden plus 4. MOE = 4.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 51October 19, 2020 9:02 PM

R47, Fox Business reported that Trump is telling people they should look out for a WSJ article about Biden that is coming out tomorrow, and that is will be a game changer, or something to that effect.

by Anonymousreply 52October 19, 2020 9:03 PM

Ack I'm sorry. A typo in my post above.

Trafalgar Wisconsin poll released today shows Biden plus 2. MOE = 2.9

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 53October 19, 2020 9:04 PM

R51, Trafalgar PR intern needs to stop. Enough. Let's dismiss all other polls and only point to this shit.

by Anonymousreply 54October 19, 2020 9:04 PM

R54 - this thread is about PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trafalgar was most accurate in the past 2 elections - they should not be dismissed just because they show you numbers you don't want to see.

But here you go - just for you. Reuters just released their PA poll today. PA Biden plus 4, MOE = 4.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 55October 19, 2020 9:06 PM

R52, It must be from the same delusional crackpot that his "GIANT RED WAVE is coming" claim came from.

by Anonymousreply 56October 19, 2020 9:07 PM

R55, Stop lying, Trafalgar was not the most accurate poll in 2018. In fact it got downgraded to C- rating for being awfully incorrect in the last election. Stop lying.

by Anonymousreply 57October 19, 2020 9:09 PM

"Take a normal poll add +6 for the GOP and you get a Trafalgar poll."

-- Nate Silver

Also, Trump is only up in Ohio by 0.4%. I don't see how his campaign could be pulling their advertising because they think they're winning.

by Anonymousreply 58October 19, 2020 9:10 PM

R57 is in denial.

R58 - Nate got everything wrong in 2016, why believe him now?

by Anonymousreply 59October 19, 2020 9:11 PM

R59, also lies. He didn't get everything wrong. Stop spreading lies.

by Anonymousreply 60October 19, 2020 9:13 PM

The Trafalgar nut is the Bucks County Yard Sign Troll. He’s a crazy old fuck who knows nothing. Ignore the cunt.

by Anonymousreply 61October 19, 2020 9:13 PM

Analyses I've seen of Trafalgar polling only discusses where they've been most accurate; Nate's rating suggests they've been wrong even more often. If you weight Republicans in a poll of course you'll be right when more Republicans come out than expected (something like a stopped clock principle). But where has Trafalgar fallen short? And why do people think they won't be right again in places like PA and FL?

by Anonymousreply 62October 19, 2020 9:14 PM

538 gave Trump the best chance to win out of any major forecast.

by Anonymousreply 63October 19, 2020 9:15 PM

[quote]Trump is telling people they should look out for a WSJ article about Biden that is coming out tomorrow, and that is will be a game changer, or something to that effect.

Why doesn't Fox, you know, investigate how come Trump know about a story that's not been published yet?

Rhetorical question. It's clear any dirt that comes out is pushed directly by him through his stooges.

by Anonymousreply 64October 19, 2020 9:15 PM

I think this is the just published " bombshell" WSJ story, unless there's something else it's a nothingburger opinion piece. WSJ is notoriously pro Trim/anti-Biden.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 65October 19, 2020 9:16 PM

R62, nobody is saying that they can not be right. They may be but why ignore a whole slew of other pollsters and keep promoting this one as some kind of holy grail of indicators of what's going to happen. Also ignoring the fact its not always accurate and right in every election. Just one of many other polls.

If I need to take a GOP-leaining poll, I better look at Harris X that does the same job Trafalgar does, exaggerating GOP sampling in their polls, but in more balanced way.

by Anonymousreply 66October 19, 2020 9:18 PM

For example Trafalgar predicted a 12 point win for Kemp over Abrams in 2018, when he actually "won" by less than 1 percent.

Trafalgar also just published a Michigan poll a few days back which put Trump up by 1, nonsense as all other polls show a 7-8 point Biden lead

by Anonymousreply 67October 19, 2020 9:19 PM

Fox News idiot Jesse Watters just mentioned the Trafalgar polls, said that they are the most "accurate".

Looks like Fox finally has some polls they can report showing that Trump is gonna win.

Maybe the orange motherfucker will win. Guess we'll see in a few weeks.

by Anonymousreply 68October 19, 2020 9:22 PM

Honey R68...why are you even watching FOX??

by Anonymousreply 69October 19, 2020 9:24 PM

R68, even GOP favourite Trafalgar polls show Trump either in a tight race or losing EV, so NO.

by Anonymousreply 70October 19, 2020 9:24 PM

R65, talk about a bunch of hot air. That mush be the story. Bunch of doodoo topped off with a cherry.

by Anonymousreply 71October 19, 2020 9:54 PM

R65, weird he'll be toting an Opinion piece. I'm not sure that's it.

by Anonymousreply 72October 19, 2020 10:20 PM

[quote] Fox Business reported that Trump is telling people they should look out for a WSJ article about Biden that is coming out tomorrow, and that is will be a game changer, or something to that effect.

Well, there’s no reason to doubt that at all. /s

by Anonymousreply 73October 19, 2020 10:22 PM

Does he even know the difference, r72? I guess we’ll k ow within a few hours, tomorrow’s edition should be online soon.

by Anonymousreply 74October 19, 2020 10:24 PM

The clock is ticking and Trump is still taking a shellacking

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 75October 19, 2020 10:32 PM

Listen to Pod Save today. It's crazy close.

by Anonymousreply 76October 19, 2020 10:44 PM

I assume the WSJ story Trump is talking about will be a Kimberley Strassel editorial, not an actual reported story. She called the unmasking story the greatest scandal in years and it led to exactly ZERO charges.

by Anonymousreply 77October 19, 2020 10:57 PM

Is tomorrow’s edition online yet? They don’t date their home page, but most newspapers will post breaking news around 7 pm the night before they publish.

by Anonymousreply 78October 19, 2020 11:09 PM

The NYPost stepped in serious shit with the Hunter Biden hard drive story and they’re trying to scrape it off their shoe now. Even Fox (we learned today) passed on the story cuz it smelled so bad. I can’t imagine the WSJ is willing to die on this hill.

by Anonymousreply 79October 19, 2020 11:21 PM

From Reuters/Ipsos:

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 45% WISCONSIN: Biden 51%, Trump 43% From Mitchell Communications:

MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 41%

by Anonymousreply 80October 19, 2020 11:23 PM

So what is this upcoming Wall Street Journal story Trump Is claiming will devastate Biden?

by Anonymousreply 81October 19, 2020 11:24 PM

So how does he see the 2020 race? Fundamentally, as a motivation race, rather than a persuasion race, with perhaps 1.5 percent, at most, of the electorate undecided in battleground states.

The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).

This is Cahaly’s breakdown: He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas).

As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says. “I think [Republican senator Martha] McSally has some ground to make up. I see her about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state. And win it by a couple of points or more. And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

Trump isn’t there yet in Pennsylvania, according to Cahaly. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”

In Michigan, Trafalgar has Trump ahead. “I think he will win Michigan,” Cahaly says, citing fear of the Democratic economic agenda.

341 Overall, Cahaly sees another Trump win. “If it all happened right now,” he maintains, “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s.”

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 82October 19, 2020 11:35 PM

Van Jones just said that 1/4 to 1/3 of people showing up at Trump rallies this year did not vote in 2016 ... and those people are not being polled in likely/registered voter surveys.

by Anonymousreply 83October 19, 2020 11:37 PM

I read a Twitter thread over the weekend where several people admitted that they have been telling pollsters they’re voting for Biden even though they’re voting for Trump. And they said it’s something they know others are doing as well. Not sure how that may impact the actual votes, but the whole “shy Trump voter/lying to pollsters” thing is still a thing. Maybe not as impactful nationally, but elections aren’t won based on national vote.

by Anonymousreply 84October 19, 2020 11:41 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) — US Supreme Court sides with Democrats to allow Pennsylvania to count mailed ballots received up to 3 days after election.

by Anonymousreply 85October 19, 2020 11:46 PM

Biden is not campaigning until after the debate. He should be able to prepare for the debate while campaigning. Trump is having multiple events each day all loved the country. Biden should be camped out in Pennsylvania

by Anonymousreply 86October 19, 2020 11:47 PM

[quote]I read a Twitter thread over the weekend where several people admitted that they have been telling pollsters they’re voting for Biden even though they’re voting for Trump.

Like the polling firms don't take that kind of shit into account. It's what they do for a living. These are professionals. Let the professionals do their jobs.

by Anonymousreply 87October 19, 2020 11:52 PM

This is fake news.

by Anonymousreply 88October 19, 2020 11:55 PM

The opposite occurs too, r87. I know of several people who voted for Obama and Hillary despite their family’s views (I.e. their husband’s). Their secret is safe with me!

by Anonymousreply 89October 19, 2020 11:56 PM

[quote] A politician who moves their feet when dancing!

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 90October 20, 2020 12:03 AM

Tafalgar is not a real thing

There are no shy voters for the WH resident.

There are division/concern trolls. WE HAVE THE WORST TROLLS IN THE FUCKING WORLD. They aren’t even entertaining.

by Anonymousreply 91October 20, 2020 12:12 AM

The Commission on Presidential Debates adopted new rules on Monday to mute microphones to allow President Trump and Joe Biden two minutes of uninterrupted time per segment during Thursday night's debate, AP reports.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 92October 20, 2020 12:12 AM

Strange that with only 15 days to go Van Jones and others are starting to think that the Biden polling numbers are off.

The Trump voters are nasty and I just figured quite a few of them lie and say they are Biden voters. Just to be cunts.

I don't like the fact that Joe is off of the trail for the next 4 days. WTF?

by Anonymousreply 93October 20, 2020 12:14 AM

The Comey letter came on Oct 28.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 94October 20, 2020 12:17 AM

[quote]Strange that with only 15 days to go Van Jones and others are starting to think that the Biden polling numbers are off.

Strange that a pundit on a cable news channel that makes its money through ad revenue would be pushing a horserace to increase viewers. Hmmm... strange indeed.

No one is saying this thing is in the bag, but you people who are determined to discount polls when the polls weren't wrong the last two election cycles need to take a fucking Xanax.

by Anonymousreply 95October 20, 2020 12:18 AM

How the fuck would Van Jones know? Is he attending Trump rallies now and personally polling people?

by Anonymousreply 96October 20, 2020 12:23 AM

R93, well, you'll have to deal with it because he's preparing for the next and final debate, which the entire country will be watching.

by Anonymousreply 97October 20, 2020 12:25 AM

R95 is spot on. The whole ball of wax is viewers. And “excitement” brings viewers. This will continue to be a horse race if Biden is 50 point ahead.

by Anonymousreply 98October 20, 2020 12:26 AM
Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 99October 20, 2020 12:27 AM

GEORGIA Trump 48% (+1) Biden 47%

@EmersonPolling/@NewsNationNow, LV, 10/17-19 h

by Anonymousreply 100October 20, 2020 12:34 AM

Just want to remind you all that the PA Yard sign trolls have been telling you the race in Pennsylvania is closer than the polls reflect.

That's all. Carry on.

by Anonymousreply 101October 20, 2020 12:34 AM

The X factor in this race is turnout. That will benefit Dems and something polling isn’t factoring in as well. No matter what the trolls here say, or Van, who wants a horse race. Turnout is terrifying republicans.

by Anonymousreply 102October 20, 2020 12:37 AM

Biden's strategy is completely different from Trump's. Trump relies on his crazy superspreader rallies while Biden is only having very small events anyway so does my need to be running around. He is the one that didn't get Covid. He's the one that benefited greatly from the last debate which he prepared for unlike Trump. And he's s the one that benefits from the reposlrts of the ridiculous shit that Trump says while deleriously flying around playing catch up. So stop being a nervous Nellie and complaining that Biden isn't doing what Trump is doing. He's smart to stay home rest and prepare.

by Anonymousreply 103October 20, 2020 12:39 AM

I don't think Quinnapiac or Monmouth are, R87. Those two pollsters have Biden up 13 and 11 in Pennsylvania. They also have Biden up by ridiculously high numbers in Florida too. No way it's a runaway in either state.

And these are highly rated pollsters by 538.

by Anonymousreply 104October 20, 2020 12:50 AM

R104 Or they have a better handle on the blue tsunami.

by Anonymousreply 105October 20, 2020 12:52 AM

Well they certainly didn't in 2016, r105. Monmouth had Clinton up 10 in PA at this time in 2016. Was never a time it was that close.

by Anonymousreply 106October 20, 2020 12:55 AM

[quote] Authorities are investigating a fire which damaged an official ballot drop box Sunday night in Baldwin Park, damaging countless ballots in the process. Firefighters had to use a chainsaw to cut the box open and remove stacks of burned ballots.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 107October 20, 2020 12:55 AM

R106 This is not 2016. Period.

by Anonymousreply 108October 20, 2020 12:56 AM

The Comey Letter was a specific to Clinton phenomenon. Biden doesn't have decades of voter doubt to overcome.

by Anonymousreply 109October 20, 2020 12:58 AM

In terms of polling there are quite a bit of parallels, r108.

by Anonymousreply 110October 20, 2020 12:59 AM

R110 No.

by Anonymousreply 111October 20, 2020 1:01 AM

Siena/NYT Poll of Georgia arriving 1 PM EST tomorrow! They also have a national poll coming out at 5 in the morning! (A+ rating, ave. bias R+0.3%).

by Anonymousreply 112October 20, 2020 1:01 AM

Hillary had so much against her:

1. Wikileaks e-mails daily. 2. The Comey bombshell, which now, in retrospect, I truly believe destroyed her campaign. 3. The Brett Baier "Hillary to be indicted" bombshell, even though it was fake. 4. Fainting on the trail back on September 11th. 5. The Obamacare premium increase bombshell surge on this date 4 years ago. 6. Deplorables remarks. --

by Anonymousreply 113October 20, 2020 1:02 AM

Hillary was never consistently above 50% or at 48-49 consistently. There are no parallels to 2016. This asshole has a (terrible) record. We’re fucking sick of him. This.is.not.2016.

by Anonymousreply 114October 20, 2020 1:03 AM

#7 R113: she had poor politics skills (outside of dark blue New York).

by Anonymousreply 115October 20, 2020 1:09 AM

Which is why Democrats shied away from Massachusetts’ Liz Warren. Democrats need nominees from the Midwest, South, lower Mid Atlantic.

by Anonymousreply 116October 20, 2020 1:12 AM

The only sure thing we know about this race for sure is that Biden will win the popular vote. How much is the question.

You can let PTSD from 2016 and pundits with agendas rule your life, all you want, I can't stop you. However, I will tell you this. Trump is going to places where he should not have to be going at this stage of the game. Democratic turnout, looks pretty fucking awesome. I don't think we're gonna get GA or TX this time, but it's nice to see all those democrats early voting.

And finally, losing political campaigns send out their bots and troll farms and campaign workers, making $10 an hour, to social media and message boards like this one to try and depress the vote. They do that by sowing confusion and doubt in the campaign strategies and in polling. And I would never put it past a cheeky DLer looking for some laughs to post a bunch of contrarian stuff for shits and giggles.

We will get through this.

by Anonymousreply 117October 20, 2020 1:18 AM

R117

As an ancient political junkie, I have a good feeling about Texas this time. Better odds there than Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 118October 20, 2020 1:26 AM

R116 I agree with you but Warren is from Oklahoma

by Anonymousreply 119October 20, 2020 1:26 AM

R119, so? Do most Americans view her as an Oklahoman?

by Anonymousreply 120October 20, 2020 1:27 AM

R118 I agree with you 100%. Beto turnout was high. And he barely lost. This turnout is much higher with a state with historically low turnout. High turnout in a Texas= Dems win.

by Anonymousreply 121October 20, 2020 1:35 AM

R118 Yes, somehow I feel GA and TX have better chance to go blue than IA/OH. Momentum of those two Sunbelt states are very strong

by Anonymousreply 122October 20, 2020 1:35 AM

R121 How was Beto's poll average?

by Anonymousreply 123October 20, 2020 1:36 AM

#NEW Texas Poll:

Biden 47 (+1) Trump 46

@DataProgress

by Anonymousreply 124October 20, 2020 1:49 AM

Today, Trump's promised a devastating Wall Street Journal story that would "end" Biden's campaign. What did we get? An editorial by some Trump hack asking why Biden hasn't denied the NY Post story. So, nothing, not even actual news. Better yet, it's side by side with an editorial ENDORSING Biden. Yeah, that's campaign-ending.

by Anonymousreply 125October 20, 2020 1:55 AM

R125 This is his equivalent to he’ll have a health plan in two weeks, every two weeks for 4 years.

Poor thing thinks it’s 2016, too. Like his trolls here try to convince us. Turnout is blowing the lid off. Now they want us to think it’s more turnout of his supporters. Ahahahaha.

by Anonymousreply 126October 20, 2020 1:59 AM

[quote] GRAND RAPIDS — With just over two weeks left until Election Day in Michigan, former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg spoke in Grand Rapids on Monday to drum up support for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

[quote] "... Here's the thing about 2020. It's been terrible. But here's the other thing about 2020. It’s not over yet. And the story of 2020 has not yet been fully written, we get to write the last and most important chapter, and the story of 2020 today. That's what we have a chance to deliver, that's what Michigan will do for the United States of America, and you will be proud of your role in that."

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 127October 20, 2020 2:00 AM

Did the WSJ editorial board endorse Biden?

by Anonymousreply 128October 20, 2020 2:00 AM

Chip in to attend the Happy Days Reunion!

Chip in any amount to join us for a Happy Days Reunion with Ron Howard, Henry Winkler, Anson Williams, Marion Ross, Don Most, and special guests!

It's only going to be livestreamed once at 6pm CT on Sunday, October 25th.

Anything you donate will be used to ensure that Trump loses Wisconsin, and thereby the White House.

Most people are chipping in $27!

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 129October 20, 2020 2:15 AM

R128 No but the paper sent out a push alert tonight promoting an editorial from a "pro-life, stand for the national anthem conservative" endorsing Joe Biden for president. Very weird for a paper that is supposed to destroy Biden tomorrow.

by Anonymousreply 130October 20, 2020 2:15 AM

Awww that’s great, r129. All of the major stars from that show who are still kicking will be there.

by Anonymousreply 131October 20, 2020 2:21 AM

Is Trump on blow?

He is/sounds out of his fucking mind during his rally tonight.

Ain't no way this man is sober!

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 132October 20, 2020 2:24 AM

He's probably on lots of different things.

by Anonymousreply 133October 20, 2020 2:29 AM

Biden needs to go to Texas and force Trump’s hand.

by Anonymousreply 134October 20, 2020 2:32 AM

Looks like Republicans are requesting more mail-in ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Deja-vu, bitches?

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 135October 20, 2020 2:42 AM

R135, huh?

by Anonymousreply 136October 20, 2020 2:44 AM

[quote] Very weird for a paper that is supposed to destroy Biden tomorrow.

With what?

by Anonymousreply 137October 20, 2020 2:45 AM

I can’t wait to come here and see this Bucks Yard Sign asshole’s reaction when Biden wins. Will the smarmy son of a bitch even bother to show his face?

by Anonymousreply 138October 20, 2020 2:45 AM

R136, more Republicans in Michigan and Wisconsin are requesting and mailing in their ballots.

There were supposed to be more Democrats doing this. As of right now, that's not happening in those two states.

Not good.

by Anonymousreply 139October 20, 2020 2:52 AM

Texas is very much in play. If turnout continues like this, then Texas turns Blue.

by Anonymousreply 140October 20, 2020 2:53 AM

R138, I have the annoying fuck ignored now, so please let me know if “it” has a mental breakdown after the election.

by Anonymousreply 141October 20, 2020 2:56 AM

R117 Here’s the thing that so many anti-Trumpers don’t want to admit: the media is largely behind the optimistic polls for Biden. I’m not saying that Trump and Biden, on paper or the public perception of them, couldn’t fairly yield a higher result for Biden naturally. But polls are fickle. The fewer real or perceived scandals Biden has to address or discuss or answer for, the more stable a candidate he appears to be. The more real or perceived scandals Trump has to answer for the volatile he seems. And we know the media has almost total control over what becomes a scandal and what doesn’t. If Trump doesn’t denounce white supremacy upon request, every major outlet runs it as their top story. Biden denies the existence of Antifa or refuses to announce whether he will pack the Supreme Court, it’s neither here nor there.

So done if what these polls are meant to do is gauge how well this clear double standard is working on the electorate. I think they expect it to work a little bit; meaning, just enough to where Joe is safely winning the states he was gonna win anyway, at least competitive in states he’s still likely going to lose just due to demographics, and comfortably in the lead in the battleground states.

But Joe is outperforming the polls by too much and I think that has some people nervous. Win or lose, Joe has polled better than any Presidential candidate in modern history. And his main selling point is he isn’t Trump. I think people who understand elections and polls know that doesn’t really ring accurate.

by Anonymousreply 142October 20, 2020 2:59 AM

R142, all that typing and for what??

You proved yourself to be a tiresome cunt with the intellect of a dung beetle.

by Anonymousreply 143October 20, 2020 3:04 AM

Trump people, like R142, are in panic mode. They see the polls and they are holding on to any sign of life they can. We would be doing the same thing if we were in their shoes. I think they are in the denial stage of grief. I'm not looking forward to the anger and bargaining stages.

by Anonymousreply 144October 20, 2020 3:07 AM

R143 and r144 Yep. I laughed and stopped reading 1/8 of the way through that dreck. Panic!

by Anonymousreply 145October 20, 2020 3:10 AM

But the three of you are the ones being tired catty bitches any time somebody doesn’t just just fuck Trump. You’re the ones desperate — you can’t handle the possibility that all these polls are doing is offering false comfort and that Trump might still win like he did in 206.

by Anonymousreply 146October 20, 2020 3:16 AM

No R146, you’re the one desperate.

🙄

by Anonymousreply 147October 20, 2020 3:18 AM

Trump is desperate to stay out of prison, hence his joke/not joke about leaving the country if he loses.

Trump might win, which would be absolutely horrible. We could say goodbye to our marriages, Social Security, Medicare, etc. etc. etc. but it could happen.

by Anonymousreply 148October 20, 2020 3:20 AM

R146, Hillary started to collapse about 9 pm on election night.

We should know something around that time.

If your orange man wins, I suppose you'll be around to gloat.

by Anonymousreply 149October 20, 2020 3:22 AM

Okay, R146 you figured it out. All the polls are wrong. The last two elections where they were right were just flukes. Everybody's lying. Yard signs, parades, boats, and everything else are more accurate than scientific polling. We need to ignore everything that's happening, because it's not as it appears.

Just please let us remain in this house of cards dream state. Wait until 11/3 to burst our bubbles.

by Anonymousreply 150October 20, 2020 3:30 AM

I will always vote AGAINST the party:

...wanting to take my right to marry my partner. To adopt with my partner, if we chose to do so. To have my partner at my bed at the ICU, as a "spouse", if dire circumstance arrives. Wanting to tell my sisters and niece what they should do with their bodies. Working fervishishly towards destroying the only healthcare some of my beloved friends and relatives have and will be able to get because of pre-existing conditions. Pillaging the air, water and land we live on.

I will never respect the people who vote for Donald Trump. They are voting for things that directly impact and harm me and my loved ones. That they are looking forward to gloating about it makes me despise them even more, which is really saying something.

If Biden wins, I won't gloat. I won't GAF about rubbing it in anyone's face. I just want to know my relationship is safe. My friends will be safe. That their healthcare that they depend on, is safe. That someone will do something about the Neo Nazis in America and about COVID, so we can BE SAFE.

That's all. I'm voting Blue because of all that.

by Anonymousreply 151October 20, 2020 4:01 AM

Vote asap. It feels great to vote.

by Anonymousreply 152October 20, 2020 4:03 AM

What is the WSJ coming out with?

by Anonymousreply 153October 20, 2020 4:25 AM

Huge Absentee Vote in Key States Favors Democrats So Far

In Wisconsin, about 146,000 people voted by mail in the 2016 general election. This fall, about 647,000 people have already voted absentee, many in Democratic strongholds.

Of all the mini-battlegrounds within Wisconsin — perhaps the most pivotal state in November for both President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. — the mother lode of absentee ballots is coming in Dane County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Madison. As of Friday, the number of submitted ballots there amounted to more than 36 percent of the county’s total 2016 election vote, a sign of significant enthusiasm; that figure is 10 percentage points higher than in any other county in the state.

In Wisconsin’s Republican heartland, the suburban counties that ring Milwaukee, the absentee turnout is only at about the state average so far. And in the dozens of rural counties where President Trump won huge victories four years ago, ballots are being returned at a far slower rate than in the state’s Democratic areas.

The yawning disparities in voting across Wisconsin and several other key battlegrounds so far are among the clearest signs yet this fall that the Democratic embrace of absentee voting is resulting in head starts for the party ahead of Election Day. For Republicans, the voting patterns underscore the huge bet they are placing on high turnout on Nov. 3, even as states like Wisconsin face safety concerns at polling sites given the spikes in coronavirus cases.

The Democratic enthusiasm to vote is not limited to Wisconsin. Ballot return data from heavily Democratic cities like Pittsburgh; Chapel Hill, N.C.; and Tampa, Fla., and the long lines of cars waiting at a Houston arena to drop off ballots, are signs that many voters have followed through on their intentions to cast ballots well ahead of Nov. 3.

There is still time for Republicans to catch up in many places, and they are expected to vote in strong numbers in person on Election Day. And untold numbers of absentee ballots could be rejected for failing to fulfill requirements, like witness signatures, or could face legal challenges. But in states that have begun accepting absentee ballots, Democrats have built what appears to be a sizable advantage, after years when Republicans were usually more likely to vote by mail.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 154October 20, 2020 4:35 AM

Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Nevada, and race is tied in Iowa — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

Most voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Nevada and Iowa feel President Trump set a bad example for the nation during his own recent battle with the coronavirus, handling things in a way they call irresponsible.

More voters say it made them feel angry rather than feel confident, and many even say they were offended. Most voters in Michigan think the Trump administration's policies are making the outbreak worse. And with voters still concerned about getting the virus themselves, large majorities suspect that, as he recovered, the president received better medical treatments than they would.

Meanwhile Joe Biden holds a large advantage over Mr. Trump on being seen as someone who cares about others, draws more favorable ratings for how he handles himself personally and, as in other states recently, would be better on handling the outbreak.

In Michigan, Biden has now drawn even with Mr. Trump on handling the economy, too — which was one measure where the president had enjoyed an edge . . .

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 155October 20, 2020 4:45 AM

R135 Democrats in those states have been encouraged to vote in person because of Trumps threats of mail in vote tampering.

by Anonymousreply 156October 20, 2020 5:04 AM

[quote] [R135] Democrats in those states have been encouraged to vote in person because of Trumps threats of mail in vote tampering.

Democrats have an absentee ballot lead.

by Anonymousreply 157October 20, 2020 5:50 AM

Biden is polling better than any modern candidate in presidential history because there are 215,000 dead bodies, you Trump fucktards.

This is not 2016, and this is not a normal election.

by Anonymousreply 158October 20, 2020 5:50 AM

Too close in The Tar Heel State. JUST IN: Joe Biden has 49% support among likely voters in a new @ABC News/WaPo poll in North Carolina, with 48% for Pres. Trump.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 159October 20, 2020 10:24 AM

Trump and the GOP would not be so desperate to suppress and discredit vote by mail if they thought they had an advantage. They understand that the more people who vote the more likely it is they will lose. HRC did not pull through because of voter interference, suppression and apathy. I think there is certainly less voter apathy this time around.

None of the polls can predict if those polled will actually vote.

by Anonymousreply 160October 20, 2020 10:53 AM

Biden leads Trump in the final Times/Siena national survey of the 2020 campaign. Biden 50/Trump 41

Extraordinary details from the NYT/Siena poll:

* 56% of women and 53% of college educated whites have *very* unfavorable views of Trump. Unheard of.

* Trump's advantage on economy is gone

* Huge majorities support $2 trillion stimulus package (72%) and public option (67%)

With just two weeks left in the campaign, Mr. Trump does not hold an edge on any of the most pressing issues at stake in the election, leaving him with little room for a political recovery absent a calamitous misstep by Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, in the coming days. The president has even lost his longstanding advantage on economic matters: Voters are now evenly split on whether they have more trust in him or Mr. Biden to manage the economy.

On all other subjects tested in the poll, voters preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by modest or wide margins. Mr. Biden, the former vice president, is favored over Mr. Trump to lead on the coronavirus pandemic by 12 points, and voters trust Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump to choose Supreme Court justices and to maintain law and order by six-point margins. Americans see Mr. Biden as more capable of uniting the country by nearly 20 points.

Over all, Mr. Biden is backed by 50 percent of likely voters, the poll showed, compared with 41 percent for Mr. Trump and 3 percent divided among other candidates.

Most of all, the survey makes clear that crucial constituencies are poised to reject Mr. Trump because they cannot abide his conduct, including 56 percent of women and 53 percent of white voters with college degrees who said they had a very unfavorable impression of Mr. Trump — an extraordinary level of antipathy toward an incumbent president.

by Anonymousreply 161October 20, 2020 10:56 AM

I don’t get why their final poll is two weeks before the election and before the last debate

by Anonymousreply 162October 20, 2020 10:57 AM

R162, Probably because early voting this year. most of the noise in the next 2 weeks will hardly change a thing, including a sure to be disaster final debate. Also very few undecideds. Unless one of them drops dead or kills a baby on National TV primetime broadcast, that's it.

by Anonymousreply 163October 20, 2020 11:04 AM

[quote]Fox News really talking about the WSJ story that is supposedly breaking tomorrow regarding Joe Biden.

Well, I don't think they're talking about this new op-ed backing Biden from retired general William McRaven:

Biden Will Make America Lead Again

We need a president with decency and a sense of respect.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 164October 20, 2020 11:14 AM

Didn't all the polls have Hillary winning in a landslide at this point in the game in 2016? Do you all have amnesia?

Fact: the vast silent majority of Repubs don't answer polls. Or if they do they answer them dishonestly. They enjoy spoofing pollsters and encourage others (in online forums) to do the same. They are stealth. They do not attend rallies, post lawn signs or act like rabid sports fans. Many dislike and even hate Trump, but they'll vote for him anyway because his politics align more closely with their interests.

by Anonymousreply 165October 20, 2020 11:31 AM

R165 Stop spreading that fucking lie. It isn’t FACT. If anything, we have silent Biden supporters, those republicans voting Dem for the first time ever.

by Anonymousreply 166October 20, 2020 11:39 AM

R165bNo, Hillary was not projected to win a landslide. Her polling was good, but weak. This is NOT 2016.

by Anonymousreply 167October 20, 2020 11:40 AM

Hillary was up by 12 points in national polling at this point in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 168October 20, 2020 11:44 AM

[quote]if anything, we have silent Biden supporters.

Why would they have to be silent? A Biden/Kamala lawn sign is very pinnacle of virtue signalling in 2020.

by Anonymousreply 169October 20, 2020 11:45 AM

R169, you answered your own question, Natasha.

I can see Russian troll farms are earning that pay check in the final days.

by Anonymousreply 170October 20, 2020 11:49 AM

LOL. I'm in Bucks county. Enjoying my morning coffee.

by Anonymousreply 171October 20, 2020 11:50 AM

R170 They aren’t. These are the trolls headed for Siberia or back to forced sex work.

by Anonymousreply 172October 20, 2020 11:50 AM

Oh, honey. Trust me, I would starve if I had to rely on sex work.

by Anonymousreply 173October 20, 2020 11:52 AM

FWIW the Siena/NYT poll of today has Biden slightly up from their last one (taken Sep 22-24, 2020), where he was 8 points over Trump, at 49; now he's up 9 points at 50.

by Anonymousreply 174October 20, 2020 12:02 PM

R165 is a Trumper because he is impervious to fact, dislikes actual authoritative sources on the topic. Instead, he just spouts sophomoric talking points from rightwing simpletons.

by Anonymousreply 175October 20, 2020 12:05 PM

Hillary "lost" due to: 1. Wikileaks e-mails daily. 2. The Comey bombshell, which now, in retrospect, I truly believe destroyed her campaign. 3. The Brett Baier "Hillary to be indicted" bombshell, even though it was fake. 4. Fainting on the trail back on September 11th. 5. The Obamacare premium increase bombshell surge on this date 4 years ago. 6. Deplorables remarks. --

by Anonymousreply 176October 20, 2020 12:06 PM

Two weeks out & the @538politics average of nat'l polls puts @JoeBiden +10 and over the critical 50% mark.

HRC was only polling at 45% at this time.

Also over 50% in the average of polls in MI, PA & WI

But there is still a lot of work to do. Get out and vote & take a friend

by Anonymousreply 177October 20, 2020 12:08 PM

I don't trust PA one bit, and I certainly don't trust TX, GA, FL, or even NC to go blue (yet). GET OUT THE VOTE. We have to overwhelm the Rs right up through Nov. 3.

by Anonymousreply 178October 20, 2020 12:12 PM

Beautiful endorsement by Michael Steele.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 179October 20, 2020 12:14 PM

What is your source, R168? According to Real Clear Politics' count, Clinton was up 5.4 at this point in 2016, whereas they have Biden up 8.9. So his lead is more than half again as big as hers was.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 180October 20, 2020 12:22 PM

Compared to 2016 results, some interesting recent polling. Alaska: Trump +15—>Trump +4 Indiana: Trump +19—>Trump +7 Kentucky: Trump +30—>Trump +20 Missouri: Trump +19—>Trump +5 Montana: Trump +20—>Trump +7 North Dakota: Trump +36—>Trump +19 West Virginia: Trump +42—>Trump +

by Anonymousreply 181October 20, 2020 12:26 PM

[quote]What is your source, [R168]?

October 23, 2016: Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.

The poll shows Clinton with 50% support to Trump's 38%, with 5% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% supporting the Green Party's Jill Stein.

George S. referenced it on his Sunday show.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 182October 20, 2020 12:27 PM

October 18, 2016: NPR

Let's make one thing clear: Three weeks out from this election, Hillary Clinton is winning — and it's not close.

National polls have expanded, showing Clinton with a lead on the low end of 4 points to a high of 12.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 183October 20, 2020 12:29 PM

R182, are you stupid enough to only focus on one poll, instead of the aggregate of all polls like statisticians and political experts do???!!!

by Anonymousreply 184October 20, 2020 12:29 PM

Final 2016 NYT poll: Clinton 45% Trump 42% Final 2020 NYT poll: Biden 50% Trump 41%

by Anonymousreply 185October 20, 2020 12:30 PM

Stop feeding Natasha from Bucks County who picks and choose polls to lie, lie and lie.

by Anonymousreply 186October 20, 2020 12:32 PM

That particular troll is getting too predictable and, hence, tedious. He/she must be really desperate to still spout all those tired old memes when the writing is already on the wall.

by Anonymousreply 187October 20, 2020 12:35 PM

The RCP comparison (R180) means that even if Biden drops 3+ points in the last two weeks the way Hillary did, he'll still be above where she is right now—he'll be at almost 6 points up (according to RCP). And there are fewer undecideds now for a Comey-letter-type surprise to convince. What bothers me, though, is that he could be up at that margin and yet lose PA and so lose the Electoral College, which we should have gotten rid of years ago. I'm sick of this minority rule, which amounts to rule by the homogeneous small towns—duped by plutocrats.

by Anonymousreply 188October 20, 2020 12:40 PM

R169 I see you. Sometimes you sign yourself as the Bucks YST sometimes you don’t. I actually think others upthread are right, you’re sipping your vodka in Minsk.

by Anonymousreply 189October 20, 2020 1:18 PM

I'm sure Biden didn't take three days off the trail for debate prep. They're probably trying to coax Hunter off a ledge by now.

by Anonymousreply 190October 20, 2020 1:46 PM

I don't like today's IBD/Tipp results. +3 and +2... WTF.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 191October 20, 2020 1:48 PM

What's the deal with IBD/Tipp? They're much lower than the Siena poll which was from about the same time.

by Anonymousreply 192October 20, 2020 1:54 PM

The IBD/Tipp results are like Zogby's, but 538 ranks IBD/Tipp A/B and Zogby only C+.

by Anonymousreply 193October 20, 2020 1:57 PM

Biden 48% Trump 46% Jorgensen (L) 3% Hawkins (G) 1% IBD/TIPP (LV, 10/15-19 )

by Anonymousreply 194October 20, 2020 2:00 PM

biden needs to be on the campaign trail this week. Enough debate prep

by Anonymousreply 195October 20, 2020 2:00 PM

Something is off in Nevada:

GOP picked up 2,000 ballots on the Dems in Clark in early voting today: R – 12,865 D – 10,844 NP – 5,898 Total – 29,607 That's 43-36. What an upside down year! Dem ballot lead in Clark down to 42K.

by Anonymousreply 196October 20, 2020 2:03 PM

I know we have Covid19, but Biden should not be repeating Hillary’s lax campaigning mistake

by Anonymousreply 197October 20, 2020 2:04 PM

Tweet this to the Nates, see what they say.

by Anonymousreply 198October 20, 2020 2:05 PM

Ominous News in Nevada: Washoe is in for the day, with GOP winning by 1,700: Democratic - 2,299 Republican - 3,987 Other - 1,436 Total - 7,722 Combined mail/in-person: Democratic - 35,112 Republican - 23,255 Other - 15,777 Total - 74,144 Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

by Anonymousreply 199October 20, 2020 2:10 PM

Trump was just in NV, and everyone voted immediately after the rally. Carson City, just next to Washoe.

He can't do that for everywhere, but yes it's a problem: Kamala needs to get out there. Obama will be in Philadelphia tomorrow. We need a star in Vegas to rally voters.

by Anonymousreply 200October 20, 2020 2:13 PM

These stats with people registered or voted by party...are these party affiliation or actual votes? I know a lot of registered Republicans who are not voting for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 201October 20, 2020 2:16 PM

I wish Michelle Obama would visit some cities to rally Dem voters.

by Anonymousreply 202October 20, 2020 2:17 PM

R201, thats the thing. This year, voter affiliation does not equal to voter commitment.

by Anonymousreply 203October 20, 2020 2:17 PM

To be clear, the IBD/Tipp has Biden down 1 and Trump up 4 since their last poll (taken Oct. 10-14, 2020).

by Anonymousreply 204October 20, 2020 2:18 PM

Biden is up by an average of +6.3 in Nevada.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 205October 20, 2020 2:28 PM

R205, those numbers are very outdated.

by Anonymousreply 206October 20, 2020 2:32 PM

Where the hell is Biden? Jesus Christ, didn't he learn from 2016?

by Anonymousreply 207October 20, 2020 2:32 PM

R205, thats still a bit close. Not a lot of EVs there but NV is a must for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 208October 20, 2020 2:33 PM

Biden is preparing for the debate. Harris is on the trail. Obama is speaking tomorrow, Wednesday. Debate is Thursday.

by Anonymousreply 209October 20, 2020 2:34 PM

Biden isn't very visible these days. So I can share that concern. Prepping for debate shouldn't be an excuse.

by Anonymousreply 210October 20, 2020 2:35 PM

Biden last spoke on the trail on Sunday. October 18. Durham, NC. Detroit the day before.

It's Tuesday.

Harris and Jill Biden spoke yesterday. Both are speaking again today. Obama on Wednesday.

Debate is Thursday.

Biden is off the trail for three days, with the debate on the fourth day.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 211October 20, 2020 2:45 PM

R207, you know where Biden is. The question is, do you know where your common sense is?

by Anonymousreply 212October 20, 2020 2:45 PM

Where’s the WSJ story that was supposed to come out today?

by Anonymousreply 213October 20, 2020 2:48 PM

It could come out today. It could out tomorrow. It could come out the day of the debate. It may never come out. Trump could have been lying. If Trump could have lead the country the way he manipulates the press and social media, he might have been a half way decent president.

by Anonymousreply 214October 20, 2020 2:51 PM

[quote] [R205], those numbers are very outdated.

Latest Polls

Updated throughout the day.

Who’s ahead in Nevada?

An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Biden is up by an average of +6.3 in Nevada.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 215October 20, 2020 2:51 PM

R215, really believes in 538. I wish I did

by Anonymousreply 216October 20, 2020 2:55 PM

President (Ohio) Biden (D) 48% Trump (R) 47% 10/18-10/19 by Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (C+) 800 LV

by Anonymousreply 217October 20, 2020 2:56 PM

What exactly does he need to "prep" for against Trump? The debate itself should be a campaign event; campaign should serve as prep for it.

by Anonymousreply 218October 20, 2020 2:56 PM

Prepping for a debate should not mean four days off he campaign trail. There are only 13! full campaign days left now. Why aren’t they learning lessons from 2016?

by Anonymousreply 219October 20, 2020 2:57 PM

Yeah, R215, but look at the dates of the polls Nate is factoring in. They're weeks old.

by Anonymousreply 220October 20, 2020 2:58 PM

R216, I suggest 270towin. If you look at the map library there is a drop down menu which lists all election forecasters including 538 for comparison.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 221October 20, 2020 2:58 PM

He needs to prep because 1) he's a stutterer and 2) he has to be prepared to deal with Trump's attack on his family -- which is his weak spot.

by Anonymousreply 222October 20, 2020 2:58 PM

R217, thats good for Rassmussen poll but their last poll had Biden ahead by +4.

by Anonymousreply 223October 20, 2020 2:59 PM

National Poll: Biden 50% (+9) Trump 41% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 2% West 1%

@leger360

(LV, 10/16-18)

by Anonymousreply 224October 20, 2020 3:06 PM

Five point Trump surge in Florida in last two weeks in UNF poll. A lot of work is needed in Florida

by Anonymousreply 225October 20, 2020 3:07 PM

Trump’s rallies are working. He is getting his people energized and out to vote. That’s why inperson campaigning is exalted among politicians. Every time he goes to a state, he gets his message out on newscasts and media for days. It’s free propaganda and media. The candidate who doesn’t appear is being defined and outgunned by the one who is appearing.

by Anonymousreply 226October 20, 2020 3:11 PM

I also think Trump's approach is working. They are much more surgical in where they are campaigning and working hard in the states that matter and they see opportunity/challenges in.

It might have worked for Biden to just sit back and let Trump to self harm but he needs to be on the road 24/7 in PA, AZ, NC, and FL. Thats where Trump is currently spending most of his days now.

by Anonymousreply 227October 20, 2020 3:14 PM

The Biden campaign isn't going dark, there are all sorts of news articles about Biden spending during football games and such.

I may have missed some replies about this so I hope I'm not repeating anything, but the guy who said "we're fucked" because "Biden is going dark" on ads this weekend is fucking LYING and trying to get people upset. We've got tons of assholes like that around here lately.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 228October 20, 2020 3:14 PM

R228, I dont think those Ads are as effective as they used to be though. These days its all about non-stop news coverage and social media with more targeted groups and areas. That's what Trump is doing well it appears and he is chipping away.

Just blanket ads on TV and surrogates campaigning for you is not enough.

by Anonymousreply 229October 20, 2020 3:17 PM

He is on the road 24/7 R227 and you'd better have a good reason for lying about it.

The only people I'm hearing who say Biden is pulling ads or "putting a lid on appearances" are Eric Trump and his ilk. So why are you spreading Trumpian bullshit?

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 230October 20, 2020 3:18 PM

Right, right, first it was Biden going dark and pulling all his ads, now it's he's spending tons on ads but they're not the right KIND of ads.

by Anonymousreply 231October 20, 2020 3:19 PM

Biden's last appearance this week was Monday and he's prepping for the debate until Thursday.

Of course, trolls want you to think he's GoNE dArK and NOt dOInG EnOUgH but this is normal debate prep.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 232October 20, 2020 3:20 PM

Whether because of Trump's campaigning or just the recent lack of news about his taxes, etc., it looks as if the numbers may be tightening. Let's hope the debate produces the same bump for Democrats the first few debates did. And yes, Biden needs to get back on the road and get lots of boots on the ground in PA, MI, NV.

by Anonymousreply 233October 20, 2020 3:21 PM

WE WANT MORE BIDEN! THATS ALL.

When you have constant news about Trump this and Trump that, we need more Biden in all shapes, forms and settings. Road or not road.

by Anonymousreply 234October 20, 2020 3:23 PM

[quote] Unless one of them drops dead or kills a baby on National TV primetime broadcast, that's it.

Deplorables wouldn't care. He could perform a live late-term abortion on a blue-eyed, blonde and that would only turn off about 2% of his supporters.

by Anonymousreply 235October 20, 2020 3:24 PM

Speaking of Republican voters in this election. Here is one take.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 236October 20, 2020 3:26 PM

R234, isn't Obama going instead today or tomorrow?

by Anonymousreply 237October 20, 2020 3:28 PM

The thing is, we're still scarred from 2016 and Biden going off the road is pretty scary.

Though he hasn't been having huge rallies and the early voting looks amazing.

by Anonymousreply 238October 20, 2020 3:28 PM

Mayor Pete was in Michigan yesterday.

by Anonymousreply 239October 20, 2020 3:29 PM

Numbers might tighten because undecideds are deciding, but 538 has Biden as far ahead as he has been for the entire month of October already, not losing ground.

FHQ's electoral map has Biden with 351 electoral votes.

RCP does have a little bit of tightening but Biden is still up by 8.6 nationally.

The Guardian has Biden leading in most battleground states as of this morning.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 240October 20, 2020 3:30 PM

Biden was campaigning early Monday then, up until the afternoon did an interview with 60 Minutes, to be released VERY SOON.

He's preparing for this debate to "put a lid" on Dump's chances of reelection. Winners prepare, not impulsively throw garbage at the wall.

Dump's rallys have been and will be linked to Coronavirus spread, including hospitalizations and people on ventilators in the fuckin ICU. His rallys, which a few of you are getting your pants about, are making Americans sick with a disease that has killed 222,000+ since MARCH and given hundreds of thousands of others life-long health problems.

Kamala is out there. Pete is out there. Joe has been in multiple states, every day, except for today and tomorrow. Two days. After the debate,he will be back out there, in the states he needs to go to.

And the Orange Anus will still be lying, insulting women and good people like Fauci, encouraging his retarded cult to go without their masks and skimming money from his campaign for personal use.

by Anonymousreply 241October 20, 2020 3:30 PM

R237, supposedly. He did put out this ad in SC yesterday.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 242October 20, 2020 3:31 PM

Politico's Tim Alberta:

Just when you thought 2020 has run out of surprises... try this on for size:

Trump might just lose college-educated white ***men***

For context: He carried them by 14 points vs Clinton. Now mounting evidence Biden's running ahead in key battlegrounds.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 243October 20, 2020 3:34 PM

@HKrassenstein Polls conducted entirely before / after 10/15 (w/margin of error):

Siena: +8 / +9 (3.4%) YouGov: +8 / +11 (4.0%) Morning Consult: +9 / +9 (1.0%) Léger: +11 / +9 (2.5%) Ipsos: +6 / +8 (3.5%)

by Anonymousreply 244October 20, 2020 3:44 PM

Unless Biden has done something to make a specific negative impression over the past few days, I just can't see the suburban voters, especially women, who have defected from Trump in significant numbers deciding spontaneously, "Oh, I guess he's not so bad." A few soft supporters who weren't sure, maybe, but that's not enough to change the picture dramatically.

by Anonymousreply 245October 20, 2020 3:58 PM

For the Bucks County Troll:

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 246October 20, 2020 4:02 PM

Approach everything the Bucks YST says with extreme skepticism. He claimed in another post that there were 6700 cars at the rally cited in r246’s post. The article says there were about a thousand.

by Anonymousreply 247October 20, 2020 4:07 PM

Colorado Presidential Polling: Biden (D): 51% Trump (R): 43% Jorgensen (L): 3% RMG / October 15, 2020 / n=800 / Online

by Anonymousreply 248October 20, 2020 4:10 PM

[quote]Its funny DLers discount trafalgar because of their C- rating given by Nate - when they have by far been the most accurate pollsters both in 2016 and 2018.

It's funny how you continue to lie that Trafalgar has "by far been the most accurate pollsters [sic] in 2016 and 2018." No matter how much you repeat the lie, it doesn't become true.

Trafalgar has earned their C- rating because of the lack of accuracy of their results and because of the Republican bias in those results. The fact that you continue to close your eyes to both of these facts reveals a lot about you.

by Anonymousreply 249October 20, 2020 4:22 PM

[quote]The article says there were about a thousand.

Not to mention that car rallies, as with the Trump boat rallies, are completely meaningless. The trouble for that particular troll is that he hasn't got anything else he can point to, so he continues to pound on this utterly meaningless, not to mention more than a little dumb, crap.

by Anonymousreply 250October 20, 2020 4:23 PM

I thought Biden’s Durham car rally was really cool. The honking really created sort of aural excitement factor, which he badly needs

by Anonymousreply 251October 20, 2020 4:29 PM

R169 Dems are more likely not to have a Biden/Harris sign for fear of cult members retribution.

by Anonymousreply 252October 20, 2020 5:30 PM

One difference in polling is they corrected polling white working class/non-college degree voters so if that is so polls should be more accurate.

by Anonymousreply 253October 20, 2020 5:32 PM

People like Biden, but they loathe Kunty Kamala. She was not a good choice. Biden had a good shot until she happened.

by Anonymousreply 254October 20, 2020 5:48 PM

I like Kamala.

by Anonymousreply 255October 20, 2020 7:48 PM

R254 = Sarah Palin

by Anonymousreply 256October 20, 2020 7:48 PM

Trump is expected to do three or four rallies a day starting this weekend, the Washington Post reports.

by Anonymousreply 257October 20, 2020 7:50 PM

[quote] So his lead is more than half again as big as hers

Huh?

by Anonymousreply 258October 20, 2020 7:55 PM

[quote] Dems are more likely not to have a Biden/Harris sign for fear of cult members retribution.

Keep pulling shit out of your ass.

by Anonymousreply 259October 20, 2020 7:56 PM

Again, the only thing that matters is the electoral college. How Biden is doing nationally is meaningless. Of course he’ll win the popular. He could lose the electoral college easily.

by Anonymousreply 260October 20, 2020 7:58 PM

We know that, R260. Why do you think the title of this thread is "Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin?" Biden is also doing well in the swing states.

by Anonymousreply 261October 20, 2020 8:02 PM

[quote]People like Biden, but they loathe Kunty Kamala. She was not a good choice. Biden had a good shot until she happened.

I just love our trolls ... they can't really argue anything, so all they can do is randomly make up shit. Because, of course, Biden's polls went into the shitter immediately after he chose Harris. And Harris's poll numbers are just totally awful because everyone "loathe[s] Kunty Kamala." [Except, of course, neither of these assertions is true.]

Pound for pound, we have some of the dumbest trolls on the Internet.

by Anonymousreply 262October 20, 2020 8:04 PM

New Reuters IPSOS Swing State Numbers Michigan Biden up 51-44%, Peters up 50-45% North Carolina Biden up 49-46%, Senate tied at 47%

by Anonymousreply 263October 20, 2020 8:47 PM

I love Kamala, but Biden has underused her. She should have been doing much more robust continuous outreach to women, youth, and people of color. She should be everywhere

by Anonymousreply 264October 20, 2020 8:48 PM

Harris live from Milwaukee.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 265October 20, 2020 8:55 PM

R264 just because the news doesn't cover every rally and every meeting, it doesn't mean that Kamala is sitting at home. She travels quite a bit, plus she's still doing her work in the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 266October 20, 2020 9:08 PM

Kamala was in Miami dancing in the rain yesterday she’s alright with me

by Anonymousreply 267October 20, 2020 9:21 PM

R258, his lead is more than 150% as big as hers was.

by Anonymousreply 268October 20, 2020 9:21 PM

R257 R258 R259 R260 R261 R262 R263 R264 R265 R266 R267 R268

Wow! A lot of trolls in a long sequence!!!

by Anonymousreply 269October 20, 2020 9:25 PM

Never mind! DL Was screwed up for me and it looked like they were blocked.

Sorry!

by Anonymousreply 270October 20, 2020 9:28 PM

[quote]Trump is expected to do three or four rallies a day starting this weekend,

He is convinced that rallies are his winning strategy, plus they aren't that expensive now that he's using AF1 and not hiring venues.

He's not wrong as far as the Deplorables go. The question is, are there enough new voters in Deploraville to push him over the line.

by Anonymousreply 271October 20, 2020 9:38 PM

Kamala Harris has been helping the other Senate Democrats fight the confirmation of that trash Barrett along with doing in person and virtual events. Today is her birthday and she is working today, as well. Before you call her lazy, check yourself.

Or, at least, watch something other than FAUX News.

by Anonymousreply 272October 20, 2020 10:30 PM

Arizona Poll:

Biden 47% Trump 46%

RMG Research (LV, Oct 14-19)

by Anonymousreply 273October 20, 2020 10:35 PM

What is AF1, R271?

by Anonymousreply 274October 20, 2020 10:36 PM

R273 Troll.

by Anonymousreply 275October 20, 2020 10:45 PM

Air Force One, R274.

by Anonymousreply 276October 20, 2020 10:46 PM

President (National)

Biden (D) 51% Trump (R) 40% Jorgensen (L) 1% Hawkins (G) 1%

10/17-10/18 by Redfield & Wilton Strategies 2915 LV

by Anonymousreply 277October 20, 2020 10:48 PM

R277 Troll.

by Anonymousreply 278October 20, 2020 10:48 PM

Pennsylvania has me worried. Only a 5 point spread based on four polls.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 279October 20, 2020 10:52 PM

^^Concern Troll at R279.

by Anonymousreply 280October 20, 2020 10:53 PM

IOWA Biden 45% Trump 45% Jorgensen 2%

InsiderAdvantage/@theamgreatness (R), LV, 10/18-19 h

by Anonymousreply 281October 20, 2020 11:46 PM

Dave Wasserman:

Here's my latest running average of demographic splits in national live-interview polls w/ new NYT/Siena added in. Biden's surged w/ 65+ between Sept. and Oct., but just a big a deal is the steady decline in undecided/third party since June/July (and vs. '16, of course).

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 282October 21, 2020 12:09 AM

Is the undecided vote that much of a difference? A cursory look at RCP shows the two-way race aggregate on 10/19 was 90.6% (Clinton 48.5%, Trump 42.1%). On 10/19/2020, that same two-way race aggregate is 93.6% (Biden 51.1%, Trump 42.5%), so the difference is 3 percentage points.

That's not nothing but it's also not something I think I should get excited about. What am I missing?

by Anonymousreply 283October 21, 2020 12:29 AM

R283, the less undecideds are in the sample, the more accurate is prediction for the outcome as there is not a lot for either side to benefit from.

by Anonymousreply 284October 21, 2020 12:31 AM

If you see the state polls, the race has tightened up a lot in swing states. To the point that it’s scary. If you’re in a swing state, please vote.

At the same time, polls that break down voters by category show that Biden has improved in almost every category in the last six months or so. In some cases, by a lot.

How can he be getting more supporters by category but still losing his lead in swing states? The only place he’s really doing badly is white uneducated men.

by Anonymousreply 285October 21, 2020 12:48 AM

R285, undecided voters are moving off the fence. It was somewhat expected that there would be some narrowing when that happened. Trump also took a real beating with his debate performance and his COVID-19 diagnosis. Some of that negative bump has disappeared, which is also expected.

It's not all that bad, though. Biden's leads in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Wisconsin remain high and there hasn't been significant narrowing in states like North Carolina or Arizona, although the races there remain close. And Trump is having to fight for states that he should be winning easily, like Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 286October 21, 2020 12:56 AM

R254 The announcement of Kamala as VP led to a huge increase in campaign donations, so I’d disagree.

by Anonymousreply 287October 21, 2020 12:59 AM

Texas is tied. Tied. He is praying voter suppression gets him by there so he’ll focus on Hail Mary states like NV, PA, AZ, FL- all in one.

by Anonymousreply 288October 21, 2020 1:16 AM

R287, that’s incorrect.

I wanted Duckworth but there’s no point in lying.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 289October 21, 2020 1:19 AM

Arizona: Biden 51%, Trump 45% (+6) Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 45% (+5) Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44% (+7) North Carolina: Biden 50%, Trump 47% (+3) Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 47% (+2) Wisconsin: Biden 52%, Trump 44% (+8)

by Anonymousreply 290October 21, 2020 1:42 AM

CNBC polls ⬆️

by Anonymousreply 291October 21, 2020 1:42 AM

Come on PA!

But when you got FLA, who needs PA?

by Anonymousreply 292October 21, 2020 1:46 AM

Are these CNBC polls new polls just released r290? Is there a link? Thanks.

by Anonymousreply 293October 21, 2020 1:52 AM

There's at least a possibility (judging from R290 as well as other polls) that PA will fall into Trump's column even as FL , AZ, and NC go blue. It would be like Pennsylvania finally deciding to cast its lot with West Virginia as a basically Appalachian state while the southerners come to their senses.

by Anonymousreply 294October 21, 2020 2:08 AM

National GE: Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42%

@ChangePolls/@CNBC, LV, 10/17-18

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 295October 21, 2020 2:10 AM

@Politics_Polls @ChangePolls @CNBC This poll is all over the place. No way Biden is 2 in Pennsylvania but 5 in Florida, 8 in Wisconsin and 10 nationally.

by Anonymousreply 296October 21, 2020 2:11 AM

The polling averages are what is really important.

by Anonymousreply 297October 21, 2020 2:14 AM

President (New Mexico)

Biden (D) 54% Trump (R) 41%

10/14-10/17 by GBAO (B/C) 600 LV NOTE: partisan (D) poll

Arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #133972 #ElectionTwitter

by Anonymousreply 298October 21, 2020 2:15 AM

President (New Jersey)

Biden (D) 56% Trump (R) 34%

10/5-10/13 by DKC Analytics 500 LV

Woof woof! Have a nice day!

Poll #133971 #ElectionTwitter

by Anonymousreply 299October 21, 2020 2:15 AM

President (Michigan)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 44% Jorgensen (L) 2%

10/14-10/20 by Ipsos (B-) 686 LV

Arf arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #133969 #ElectionTwitter

by Anonymousreply 300October 21, 2020 2:16 AM

Senate (North Carolina)

Cunningham (D) 51% Tillis (R) 45%

10/16-10/19 by Change Research (C-) LV

Woof woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #133965 #ElectionTwitter

by Anonymousreply 301October 21, 2020 2:16 AM

Change is a C- rated poll but for those worried about PA I'd contend that today's Rasmussen poll showing Biden up by 3 points is much more telling, given that Rasmussen is notoriously pro Republican

by Anonymousreply 302October 21, 2020 2:22 AM

● crazy Ali has gone all-in on the Hunter Biden porn rumor, and is calling for people to show up at Delaware police stations tomorrow.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 303October 21, 2020 2:24 AM

r303 why are you spreading the musings of nutcases?

by Anonymousreply 304October 21, 2020 2:25 AM

RUMINT: we are now hearing rumors that for months, Rudy Giuliani has been working with people to fabricate a fake arrests of a pedophile ring in Eastern Europe and blame Hunter Biden as part of his ridiculous “intel op”. 👀

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 305October 21, 2020 2:30 AM

There is no pedophile sex ring in Eastern Europe involving Hunter Biden. That’s Russian deza.

There is, however, a sitting president who is a serial rapist, and who walked in on his underage pageant contestants while they were changing. His name is Donald John Trump.

by Anonymousreply 306October 21, 2020 2:30 AM

Jeffrey Epstein arranged young sex toys for Trump

by Anonymousreply 307October 21, 2020 2:52 AM

Why are people posting polling data with no link. Its fucking annoying.

by Anonymousreply 308October 21, 2020 3:03 AM

As Nate Silver says, it's important to be cautious about the RCP averages:

[quote]I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it's not going to be a very reliable average.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 309October 21, 2020 3:19 AM

The thing that's good about RCP is it's easy to read past polls and they link to the actual polls. Otherwise the average is garbage.

Waiting for the final report on pennsylvania voter registration. Yesterday was the deadline.

by Anonymousreply 310October 21, 2020 3:37 AM

How do pundits say he is in trouble if FL is close when it’s always, always within a point for decades. He’s in trouble because FL may not be that close even with cheating. Biden by 4% in FL. That’s a FL landslide.

by Anonymousreply 311October 21, 2020 3:58 AM

R287, sorry, I misread your post. You’re correct.

by Anonymousreply 312October 21, 2020 5:01 AM

Good Florida analysis.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 313October 21, 2020 5:03 AM

Yasss, Mike! Thanks for the link, R313.

by Anonymousreply 314October 21, 2020 5:10 AM

[quote] But when you got FLA, who needs PA?

I don’t see Biden winning either.

by Anonymousreply 315October 21, 2020 5:17 AM

Most people are voting early so polls don’t mean shit at this point. People voted at different times. They could have voted for Trump but now weeks later like Biden. We just don’t know. This is going to be a really tough election to call and it’ll probably end up like the 2000 election.

by Anonymousreply 316October 21, 2020 5:19 AM

When do you think the election is r317, next March?

by Anonymousreply 317October 21, 2020 6:02 AM

[quote] Most people are voting early so polls don’t mean shit at this point.

Early voting has produced record turn out. However, most people have not voted yet.

by Anonymousreply 318October 21, 2020 7:18 AM

I don't think this is going to happen with any other state, but I do want to remind you all that HRC was ahead in Florida during early voting with unprecedented turnout, and the general consensus is that it would be nearly impossible for Trump to catch up, then he won.

Or "won," to be more accurate. Florida is fixed. It was fixed in 2000 and again in 2016, probably other years as well.

Also in states like North Carolina, both HRC and Obama were ahead in early voting, but Repugs didn't vote until Election Day and in both 2012 and 2016, the Dem lead disappeared and Repugs won NC.

Just a friendly reminder to VOTE, get everyone you know to vote, vote now or vote later, doesn't matter, just VOTE.

by Anonymousreply 319October 21, 2020 7:34 AM

[quote] I don't think this is going to happen with any other state, but I do want to remind you all that HRC was ahead in Florida during early voting with unprecedented turnout, and the general consensus is that it would be nearly impossible for Trump to catch up, then he won. Or "won," to be more accurate. Florida is fixed. It was fixed in 2000 and again in 2016, probably other years as well. Also in states like North Carolina, both HRC and Obama were ahead in early voting, but Repugs didn't vote until Election Day and in both 2012 and 2016, the Dem lead disappeared and Repugs won NC. Just a friendly reminder to VOTE, get everyone you know to vote, vote now or vote later, doesn't matter, just VOTE.

1. Early voting favors Democrats.

2. Turnout was down in 2016, specifically black early voting turnout was down in Florida.

3. President Obama won Florida in 2012.

4. This is not 2016!

by Anonymousreply 320October 21, 2020 8:36 AM

I can see PA becoming more Red and some states down in the South getting bluer. It's just reflection of shifting demographic. PA is a true toss up. We need to flip AZ and either NC or one of FL/GA L to make up for a likely loss in PA.

by Anonymousreply 321October 21, 2020 8:46 AM

I've been following the Hunter Biden pedo allegations this week on 4chan, InfoWars, and the dark reaches of Twitter. There is a very clear organized effort to get this "information" to the public. But, the story keeps changing.

On Monday morning Alex Jones said there was tape of Hunter Biden raping very young Chinese girls. Soon, scumbag Wayne Allen Root tweeted out "I've spoken with someone who seen the tapes. It's Hunter Biden raping and torturing 7 year old girls. " Later in the day, Root deleted that tweet, and Tweeted out "I've spoken to someone who's seen the tapes, and they show Biden having sex and smoking crack with girls who *appear* to be underage. So it seemingly went from forced rape of 7 year olds, to consenting sex with girls whoo appear underage.

Now, it seems the story is actually Biden having cyber sex on Skype with a teenager.

At first, I admit I was a bit worried. If Hunter was doing meth, all bets are off. But the fact that the stories changed so quickly made me think there's no truth to it. Maybe Skype sex with a girl in her 20s, which they tried to turn into something worse.

Fucking evil scumbags.

by Anonymousreply 322October 21, 2020 9:01 AM

[quote] At first, I admit I was a bit worried. If Hunter was doing meth, all bets are off.

Dear Concern Troll

It’s all manufactured bullshit and no one outside of the MAGA cult gives a fuck.

by Anonymousreply 323October 21, 2020 9:31 AM

Why are people waiting to vote in states that early vote? Vote NOW!!!!

by Anonymousreply 324October 21, 2020 10:34 AM

We can keep PA if we can convert the Pittsburgh and Philly suburbs to deep blue

by Anonymousreply 325October 21, 2020 10:36 AM

Suffolk University/USA TODAY network poll of Pennsylvania likely voters: (10/15-10/19) – President Joe Biden 49% Donald Trump 42% Jo Jorgensen 1% Others 1% Undecided 4% Refused 3% 18% have already voted

by Anonymousreply 326October 21, 2020 11:26 AM

R326, the Suffolk poll this morning showing Biden 7 points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania is good news for Biden:

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 327October 21, 2020 11:34 AM

Another poll out today has Biden +5 in Pennsylvania. I predict a 3% pt win for Biden in PA

by Anonymousreply 328October 21, 2020 11:35 AM

Finally a quality PA poll

by Anonymousreply 329October 21, 2020 11:36 AM

Clark County in Nevada has already created a firewall for Biden. And with all the Californians that have moved to Nevada and are voting here, this state is going to get even bluer.

by Anonymousreply 330October 21, 2020 11:37 AM

Link, R330? I was reading tweets about this the other day but not being from NV found them rather elliptical. Does this mean that there are so many (presumably) Democratic votes banked in Clark County that there's no way the Rs can catch up by Nov. 3?

by Anonymousreply 331October 21, 2020 11:53 AM

PA Polls from "non GPO aligned" pollsters seem to be consistently within 6 point advantage range for Biden. So it's reassuring. Still a bit too close for comfort, if he could poll above 8 I could relax.

by Anonymousreply 332October 21, 2020 11:54 AM

Harry Enten this morning:

I'll have more on this... but if you look at the PUBLICLY released GOP/conservative internal polls, they clearly point to a Biden win. I can only wonder what numbers are not getting released.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 333October 21, 2020 12:00 PM

Why do the Repugs wait till election day to vote?

by Anonymousreply 334October 21, 2020 12:02 PM

R133, exactly my point about RCP. Even their own polls show Biden winning. So why people are bringing up 2016 confuses me.

by Anonymousreply 335October 21, 2020 12:02 PM

Well despite the newest polls 538 has Biden's lead down a tick today, 10.2% versus 10.3 yesterday; so I don't understand how they assess these things.

by Anonymousreply 336October 21, 2020 12:11 PM

R331 go look on Twitter and the info is there. I'm from California but moved to Nevada 6 years ago. It was more of a red State then but now we have two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor. Clark county was a firewall for Hillary in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 337October 21, 2020 12:24 PM

How many people get their news from a Sandy Hook denier, R322?

by Anonymousreply 338October 21, 2020 12:29 PM

Democrats are not doing as well in early voting in Nevada and North Carolina as they hoped. Republicans are turning out in droves there

by Anonymousreply 339October 21, 2020 12:36 PM

R339, according to???? Post your source.

by Anonymousreply 340October 21, 2020 12:39 PM

Democrats really should not have suspended voter registration efforts

Quick Arizona Voter Reg. Update Deadline has passed, but counties are still finalizing their counts. The numbers include Maricopa 10/20, Pima 10/19, Yavapai 9/17, and all other counties 8/4 Total GOP 1,474,269 Dem 1,360,373 Maricopa GOP 916,427 Dem 815,220

by Anonymousreply 341October 21, 2020 12:55 PM

President (Nevada) Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 43% 10/17-10/20 by Civiqs (B/C) 712 LV

by Anonymousreply 342October 21, 2020 12:55 PM

President (Minnesota) Biden (D) 53% Trump (R) 43% 10/17-10/20 by Civiqs (B/C) 840 LV

by Anonymousreply 343October 21, 2020 12:56 PM

Not good: MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote: Rep 16,521 Dem 16,146 NPA/Other 9,263 Total 41,930 MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM: Dem 19,425 Rep 9,010 NPA/Other 8,779 Total 37,214

by Anonymousreply 344October 21, 2020 12:57 PM

President (Florida) Biden (D) 51% Trump (R) 47% 10/17-10/20 by Civiqs (B/C) 863 LV

by Anonymousreply 345October 21, 2020 12:58 PM

President (National) Biden (D) 54% Trump (R) 41% 10/7-10/20 by USC Dornsife (B/C) 5406 LV

by Anonymousreply 346October 21, 2020 12:58 PM

Again I repeat, while Dem turn out is important, let's not get hysterical if some red or battleground states got higher GOP registered voters. Thats a simple reality. This is not about GOP voters suddenly switching parties. GOP voters are very active and unlike Dems always show up to the polls. This is about GOP registered voters voting Biden in key states like FL, OH, PA, GA, AZ, and TX.

by Anonymousreply 347October 21, 2020 1:02 PM

R339 is making things up.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 348October 21, 2020 1:04 PM

Why A Surge In Republican Voter Registration Might Not Mean A Surge In Trump Support

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 349October 21, 2020 1:08 PM

R339 Trump has no chance in Nevada. Democratic mail in ballots haven’t been counted yet for the past two days. I am in Nevada. Clark County is the firewall.

by Anonymousreply 350October 21, 2020 1:10 PM

It's very hard. I don't have a partner, so during this Covid, I'm pretty much alone. So when I start freaking out about the election, I really have no one to talk to.

by Anonymousreply 351October 21, 2020 1:11 PM

R350, hopefully, but Jon Ralston seemed impressed with Republican early voting

by Anonymousreply 352October 21, 2020 1:20 PM

Early voting update, via @RalstonReports:

Clark in-person voting Tuesday: D -- 10,512 R -- 13,568 O -- 6,211

More later this morning on the early voting blog.

by Anonymousreply 353October 21, 2020 1:21 PM

Jon Ralston: GOP beat Dems in Clark early voting again on Tuesday -- by 3K ballots out of about 30K cast. Will update blog later this AM (still waiting on mail).

Good day again for GOP in early, in-person voting. Dems still have sizable statewide ballot lead, but GOP made inroads.

13 days.

by Anonymousreply 354October 21, 2020 1:22 PM

@RalstonReports Clark is what to watch....Ds won day 1...Day 2-Tie and Rs win day 3&4

Guessing VBM will decrease as we move forward....when that does Ds need to start winning Clark again....Rs should add 1500-2000 when rurals come in...Nye/Lyon/CC/Douglas/Elko going well for GOP

by Anonymousreply 355October 21, 2020 1:22 PM

Ralston: Dems lead in Washoe now down to just under 11K: 38,787 to 28,010

by Anonymousreply 356October 21, 2020 1:23 PM

R354, IN-PERSON!!! We already know that this is the way they vote and is expected. Dems are crashing it in mailing and dropping.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 357October 21, 2020 1:25 PM

Again, these are not actual vote counts. You have no idea how these people actually voted,

by Anonymousreply 358October 21, 2020 1:26 PM

Actually, in many states, inperson early voting is usually more Democratic

by Anonymousreply 359October 21, 2020 1:26 PM

I will defer to Jon Ralston. He is the Nevada guru

by Anonymousreply 360October 21, 2020 1:27 PM

I see some here expect Republicans to just seat it out completely this year. Keep dreaming.

by Anonymousreply 361October 21, 2020 1:28 PM

Another IBD/Tipp national poll showing a horserace has pushed 538's margin down almost to single digits (10.1%). What is that poll all about? Other polls are showing the margin still in the 8-12% range.

I really think we have to assume that most registered Republicans are voting for Trump, since accordingto polls about 90% who identify as Republican are for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 362October 21, 2020 1:29 PM

All Nevadans got mail in voter ballots. I voted by mail and dropped it off. Some are voting in person. But I think the Democrats are taking more advantage of mailing. It’s so much easier. Californians moving to Nevada are making the state bluer than it was in 2016.

Trump has no chance in Nevada.

by Anonymousreply 363October 21, 2020 1:36 PM

I bet a Hunter deepfake is coming.

by Anonymousreply 364October 21, 2020 1:41 PM

Obama speaks in Philadelphia 5:45 PM Eastern.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 365October 21, 2020 1:52 PM

This is why a revitalization of the melting pot would be a good thing. Everyone learning English in particular.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 366October 21, 2020 1:53 PM

We don't know that the registered Republicans who have voted already have all actually voted for Trump...

by Anonymousreply 367October 21, 2020 1:59 PM

UPDATED EV: With GA and TX, we're now up to 40.5M, or +793K today from just those two states.

by Anonymousreply 368October 21, 2020 1:59 PM

A Biden Landslide? Some Democrats Can’t Help Whispering

Democrats are still haunted by the ghosts of 2016. But some are allowing themselves to contemplate a Biden victory big enough to reorder the nation’s politics.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 369October 21, 2020 2:00 PM

We could be at 85 million early votes by the end of next week

by Anonymousreply 370October 21, 2020 2:00 PM

88-90% of voters who register as R support trump, according to polls. The vocal Republicans who oppose Trump are in a small minority. I don't count on more than a margin going to Biden (though in some areas that margin could make a difference).

R369, those Democrats should keep quiet and not jinx us!

by Anonymousreply 371October 21, 2020 2:01 PM

Nate Cohn.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 372October 21, 2020 2:12 PM

I guess we're at the beginning of the "it narrows towards the end of the race" part.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 373October 21, 2020 2:16 PM

Again: are these IBD polls outliers? Any reason to think that they're more accurate than the other polls? They show an effective tie nationally.

by Anonymousreply 374October 21, 2020 2:21 PM

13 days. I wish I could be in hibernation through it.

by Anonymousreply 375October 21, 2020 2:39 PM

Please, god, let President Obama tour PA, NC, WI, MI, MN, and GA.

by Anonymousreply 376October 21, 2020 3:03 PM

Can Klobuchar rally voters in MN?

by Anonymousreply 377October 21, 2020 3:04 PM

I love footage of ballot sorting operations. Those machines are amazing.

Vaugn Hillyard is in Maricopa County showing how it's done, but this is the best I could find as an example.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 378October 21, 2020 3:10 PM

New Monmouth poll for IOWA has Biden at 51% and Trump at 46%.

Yes!

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 379October 21, 2020 3:10 PM

Monmouth is A+.

Weighted average with today's polling is Biden +0.1.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 380October 21, 2020 3:12 PM

U.S. Postal Service to bench its Police Officers before election. Top USPS brass ends agency patrols that protected mail, letter carriers

Lawmakers denied access to postal facilities.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 381October 21, 2020 3:55 PM

Michigan senate seat is getting close.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 382October 21, 2020 4:49 PM

NYT video re election security from 10/19/20.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 383October 21, 2020 5:08 PM

A bunch of A/B+ rated polls are out

NYT/Sienna: Biden +3 in Iowa Quinnipiac: Biden +8 in PA, and tied in Texas. Monmouth: Biden +5 in Iowa

by Anonymousreply 384October 21, 2020 6:27 PM

Weighted average 9.9 now.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 385October 21, 2020 6:29 PM

Wondering whether Ernst is dragging down Trump at all in Iowa these days?

by Anonymousreply 386October 21, 2020 6:30 PM

Texas @QuinnipiacPoll

Biden 47% Trump 47%

LV, 10/16-10/19

by Anonymousreply 387October 21, 2020 6:32 PM

R386, actually Ernts had a relatively good polling day today. Sienna and Monmouth put her within MOE. Though that's still bad news for her when you combine that with terrible polling for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 388October 21, 2020 6:33 PM

Would really love to see Texas carrying Biden over the finish line.

by Anonymousreply 389October 21, 2020 6:39 PM

[quote]Why do the Repugs wait till election day to vote?

Because they are mindless sheep who are unable to adapt or change in any way. They've voted that way before, so they'll vote that way forever. They simply cannot evolve in any way in their lives, thoughts, or actions.

by Anonymousreply 390October 21, 2020 6:39 PM

Why is 538 lowering the national numbers? The latest polls seem pretty much the same as the last few weeks, but they're giving him a single-digit margin for the first time since Oct. 8 now. Do they give a lot of credence to that IBD/Tipp poll? Where oh where is PollTroll to explain these matters?

by Anonymousreply 391October 21, 2020 6:40 PM

R43 So your Trump hate consists of lies the media has told you. Got it.

R45 Aside from the fact that you don’t seem to know what trolling actually is, why do people who hate Trump get to be as obnoxious and petulant as possible, but even the slightest demurral gets one labeled a Trump-loving troll. Speaking as someone who doesn’t love Trump but doesn’t hate him either, his critics are very often more annoying than he is.

by Anonymousreply 392October 21, 2020 6:45 PM

R391, the weighting applied according to pollster rating, TIPP is high rated pollster. It's GOP aligned but not an internal poll like some others.

And before somebody drags Clinton into this again, TIPP, Rassmusen, Trafalgar, and other GOP pollsters still predicting Biden win, even though closer than all other pollsters, unlike in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 393October 21, 2020 6:46 PM

Thanks, R393.

by Anonymousreply 394October 21, 2020 6:47 PM

[quote] Speaking as someone who doesn’t love Trump but doesn’t hate him either, his critics are very often more annoying than he is.

There is NO ONE on the planet more annoying than Trump, you boot-licking, Nazi-lover.

by Anonymousreply 395October 21, 2020 6:48 PM

Manu Raju:

Mitt Rommey told me he already voted in the elections but he wouldn’t say if he voted for Joe Biden or wrote someone else in.

“I did not vote for President Trump,” he said.

by Anonymousreply 396October 21, 2020 6:55 PM

Theresa Greenfield for Senate (Iowa). Please give to defeat Joni Ernst, who's up by 1 according to the Times/Sienna poll.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 397October 21, 2020 7:02 PM

R391, Biden's national lead is slightly lower this week compared to last week. But a 9.9 lead is still very good. For comparison, in 2008 when Obama won the Presidency, he won by 7.2 points nationally.

by Anonymousreply 398October 21, 2020 7:59 PM

Thank you, PollTroll!

by Anonymousreply 399October 21, 2020 8:01 PM

Dave Wasserman/Cook Political Report House update:

Latest outlook: Democratic net gain of 5-15 seats.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 400October 21, 2020 8:16 PM

Trump continues to reap massive free media by being the finest circus the MSM has ever dreamt of!

No matter what Dems do the media will continue to ignore them because they don't fling their feces at the audience, or act in a depraved manner. The Dem media blackout is an intentional grab for ratings, and to create the horse race the media conglomerates demand every four years. It's disgusting.

by Anonymousreply 401October 21, 2020 8:53 PM

That small-group discussion with Obama just now in Philadelphia was inspiring.

He's going to speak this afternoon as well.

by Anonymousreply 402October 21, 2020 9:15 PM

President Obama is speaking at 5:45 PM Eastern.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 403October 21, 2020 9:17 PM

CNN/SSRS Poll (LV)

FL: Biden +4

PA: Biden +10

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 404October 21, 2020 9:29 PM

Did that "I'm super worried about the election" thread where the guy insisted he wasn't a troll get deleted?

by Anonymousreply 405October 21, 2020 9:31 PM

can accept Trump, you are a deplorable. He is the most offensive thing I have ever seen.

by Anonymousreply 406October 21, 2020 9:33 PM

Andrea Mitchell says she doesn't trust the PA polls because she's seen the fervor of Trump's PA supporters. She spoke at the Philadelphia stadium where Obama is speaking on Nicolle.

by Anonymousreply 407October 21, 2020 9:33 PM

I normally don't pay attention to anecdotal evidence, but I totally agree with Andrea Mitchell on this: I don't trust Pennsylvania for a second. It's volatile and unreliable and full of deplorables. Democrats should put a lot of money and effort into PA, but also into picking up a few of Trump's 2016 states to compensate, just in case.

by Anonymousreply 408October 21, 2020 9:41 PM

PA is close, But what these polls tell us is that while it's close, Biden still has an edge. Even Traflagar/Rassmussen/Harris/TIPP agree on that. Unlike 2016.

by Anonymousreply 409October 21, 2020 9:43 PM

New Fox News polls

Michigan: Biden +12 Pennsylvania: Biden +5 Wisconsin: Biden +5 Ohio: Trump +3

by Anonymousreply 410October 21, 2020 10:38 PM

[quote]Would really love to see Texas carrying Biden over the finish line.

Wouldn't that be wild? I don't how it will all turn out, but Republicans should be ashamed they need to fight for Texas.

My only political prediction is that Wednesday morning, November 4, we will read the news and say: Holy fuck! I never saw [italic]that[/italic] coming.

by Anonymousreply 411October 21, 2020 10:44 PM

[bold]Lawyers spurn Trump campaign in individual donations, including from Jones Day[/bold]

Lawyers at Jones Day, which has earned millions as outside counsel to U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, have donated nearly $90,000 to the campaign committee of Trump’s Democratic rival Joe Biden. Contributions to the Trump campaign by Jones Day lawyers totaled just $50, records show.

A Reuters analysis of Federal Election Commission records shows a wide gulf between individual lawyer donations to the candidates, with nearly $29 million going directly to Biden’s campaign and just under $1.75 million to Trump’s between Jan. 1, 2019 and Aug. 31, 2020. Lawyers at several other law firms representing Trump or his campaign also heavily favored Biden.

The figures reflect individual giving, not law firm contributions, and they rely on donors’ self-identification by occupation and employer. Reuters analyzed data on more than 120,000 contributions reported by the candidates’ principal campaign committees to the FEC on Sept. 20, which includes donations made up to Aug. 31. The data doesn’t include donations to political action committees, law firm PAC donations to federal candidates, or giving from lawyers’ spouses or dependents.

more at link

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 412October 21, 2020 11:12 PM

R396 he’s such a fucking weasel. It’s a binary decision, bitch, if you’re writing in your wife you might as well vote for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 413October 21, 2020 11:14 PM

R411 If Texas goes blue, it would be the death blow of the Republican party.

by Anonymousreply 414October 21, 2020 11:30 PM

Texas has been turning blue for at least 40 years it seems. We shall see.

by Anonymousreply 415October 21, 2020 11:33 PM

From article at r313:

[quote] In Pennsylvania, former Republican Congressman Phil English said Trump’s campaign has a clear advantage on the ground, where the GOP spent all summer organizing and knocking on doors. But on TV, English said, there’s a huge disparity in the area he once represented, Erie County, one of the bellwethers of the swing state.

I would vote for Biden/Harris just because some strange GOP idiots were knocking on my door in the middle of a raging pandemic.

by Anonymousreply 416October 22, 2020 1:32 AM

From article at r313:

[quote] In Pennsylvania, former Republican Congressman Phil English said Trump’s campaign has a clear advantage on the ground, where the GOP spent all summer organizing and knocking on doors. But on TV, English said, there’s a huge disparity in the area he once represented, Erie County, one of the bellwethers of the swing state.

I would vote for Biden/Harris just because some strange GOP idiots were knocking on my door in the middle of a raging pandemic.

by Anonymousreply 417October 22, 2020 1:32 AM

R415 Not even remotely true.

by Anonymousreply 418October 22, 2020 1:39 AM

They haven't been "turning blue for nearly 40 years" because they didn't fully turn red until 1980. They were voting blue back when the Dem party was the conservative party (i.e. from the state being formed in 1872 until about 1920ish) and then voted blue because of the Southern Democrats who were the "liberal but only for white folks" types. But then the state became actually liberal and voted for liberal Dems for a little while, up until the 1970s, before going red thanks to the Southern Strategy and the effectiveness of the Repug "tax and spend liberal" propaganda.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 419October 22, 2020 1:48 AM

Some perspective on Pennsylvania:

2012: Obama: 2,990,274 Romney: 2,680,434

2012: Trump: 2,970,733 Clinton: 2,926,441

Trump didn't even get as many votes as Obama in 2012, and was WAY behind Obama 2008. Clinton came within 98% of Obama in 2012.

For all the of Trump "fervor," you would need to convince me that he has picked up MORE voters since 2016. I just don't believe that's possible. I cannot fathom that anybody who voted for Clinton in 2016 would vote for Trump in 2020.

All Biden has to do is replicate Obama's numbers from 2012. That's it. Obama did even better in 2008 (3.4 million votes).

by Anonymousreply 420October 22, 2020 2:01 AM

Southern conservatives are fiscally liberal and socially conservative. Always have been. They bought the republican lies about tax cuts for the rich and all the other conservative economic propaganda. Yet, they believed in liberal economics on nearly every issue. Now, you hear, “I align with Dems on every issue except abortion so I can’t support them.” They don’t even try to get republicans to be more fiscally liberal.

by Anonymousreply 421October 22, 2020 2:06 AM

And R419, don't forget the two Bush presidents' role in keeping Texas red.

by Anonymousreply 422October 22, 2020 2:37 AM

yes, texas turned red in 1980 and is still red in 2020. That is 40 years.

by Anonymousreply 423October 22, 2020 3:12 AM

R423 We don’t know yet if it’ll be 40 years or 36 (38 non-presidential).

by Anonymousreply 424October 22, 2020 3:16 AM

[quote]Mitt Rommey told me he already voted in the elections but he wouldn’t say if he voted for Joe Biden or wrote someone else in.

You know he wrote his own name and then smirked.

by Anonymousreply 425October 22, 2020 3:39 AM

[quote]yes, texas turned red in 1980 and is still red in 2020. That is 40 years.

Even if it goes red this year, that doesn't make your statement that "Texas has been turning blue for 40 years" right.

Fifty years ago, they were turning red. Forty years ago, they had just turned red. They didn't start turning blue again until 2006, when Democrats started winning in the urban areas of the state.

by Anonymousreply 426October 22, 2020 4:39 AM

For the southern conservatives I've known (MS, LA, northern FL), it's been about one thing: race - hatred/fear of African Americans. end of.

And Democrats in the South with a few exceptions (like LBJ) were "Dixiecrats" who supported segregation. George Wallace was a Democrat before running for Pres as an independent because non-southern Democrats were a whole different animal from a Dixiecrat. Hell, LBJ was racist too, but had more decency than most of them. He said with the Civil Rights legislation, the Democratic party would lose the South "for a generation"

Wrong, Lyndo. For several generations.

by Anonymousreply 427October 22, 2020 5:09 AM

That's why pussy-grabbing, screwing a porn star while your wife is pregnant, lying, cheat, stealing, cavorting with Commie Russians - all that is hunky dorey as long as he hates who they hate. So much for "socially conservative" yeah right.

by Anonymousreply 428October 22, 2020 5:13 AM

R289 Are we reading the same article? Kamala as VP did give his fundraising a boost: “Ms. Harris, in particular, turbocharged his fund-raising. Mr. Biden’s previous high for online donations in a day had been 102,143 contributions. On Aug. 11, the day he picked Ms. Harris, he received 252,982. The day after, he topped 300,000.”

by Anonymousreply 429October 22, 2020 5:36 AM

Metro Philly has half the population of PA...if the turnout is huge there Biden wins.

by Anonymousreply 430October 22, 2020 12:00 PM

Hi r138 - I’m here. That works both ways. I’ve already seen DL melt down once (when I and the other yard signs trolls in pa were right) and it could very well happen again. I’m surprised none of you have learned from 2016 yet - your over confidence is astounding.

We MAY be having mail in ballot issues here. I don’t know if this is why bucks is low compared to other counties in their “return percentage” of mail in ballots.

My friend received her mail in ballot last week. It arrived and the security envelope was there as well as the return envelope - but the actual ballot was missing. They could tell someone messed with the adhesive in the envelope before opening. They have security cameras and no one messed with their mail box. Anyway, after calling the board of elections they went in person to “cancel” the original ballot and got a “ballot on demand” - later After contacting the DA’s office a detective called back who is working on the case. It didn’t sound like this was the only case.

She’s actually a registered independent but we initially thought she could have been targeted because she’s also pretty well know n around here for being actively involved with the business community and the re-opening of the county. She’s not a Biden supporter. Anyway after speaking with the detective we don’t think she was “targeted” - this could be a problem with other voters in the county.

The contents of the WSJ story slowly trickled out this morning - still no article. The guy who the email was addressed to has come forward.

by Anonymousreply 431October 22, 2020 12:19 PM

Nice link R431

by Anonymousreply 432October 22, 2020 12:27 PM

I'm so paranoid that even the Cookie Test is making me nervous.

[quote]"If the winner was chosen today, from our poll, Donald Trump would blow it out of the water," Lochel says.

Yikes...

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 433October 22, 2020 12:29 PM

Ha! R433

Eric trump stopped by there Friday

I’ve never been there.

by Anonymousreply 434October 22, 2020 12:43 PM

Cookie poll is right. Yard sign trolls unite!

by Anonymousreply 435October 22, 2020 12:52 PM

Well, guess we all gotta vote for Trump, boys, someone's worried about some sugar cookies and the YST said something about a ballot, maybe.

by Anonymousreply 436October 22, 2020 1:05 PM

R435 - I know the cookie poll has been accurate in the past, but looking a bit more closely I think the cookie poll is skewed. It says they count each cookie as 1 vote. What if someone comes in and buys a dozen cookies, yet half of those cookies are eaten by kids who can't vote, and the other half are shared by 2 registered voters. That would mean 12 cookies only equal 2 votes.

by Anonymousreply 437October 22, 2020 1:09 PM

Armstrong County is also very behind. Anyone from there?

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 438October 22, 2020 1:14 PM

Arizona: Biden 50% Trump 46% Jorgensen (L) 1% Florida: Biden 51% Trump 46% Jorgensen (L) 1% West (I) 1% Ipsos Tracking Poll (LV, 10/14-10/21)

by Anonymousreply 439October 22, 2020 1:40 PM

National Poll: Biden 51% (+9) Trump 42%

@Reuters

/

by Anonymousreply 440October 22, 2020 1:40 PM

NEW: Joe Biden leads in the key battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while Donald Trump leads in South Carolina. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas are all within the margin of error.

by Anonymousreply 441October 22, 2020 1:42 PM

MorningConsult

NEW: Joe Biden leads in the key battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while Donald Trump leads in South Carolina. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas are all within the margin of error.

by Anonymousreply 442October 22, 2020 1:42 PM

I'll definitely be melting down if Dump wins but I'll be doing so off-line, in the company of my partner. DL won't make me feel better about facing four more years of him and his Nazism.

by Anonymousreply 443October 22, 2020 1:51 PM

Democrats need to hurry up and vote in swing states. Texas is leading the way.

by Anonymousreply 444October 22, 2020 2:21 PM

I've never heard of the sugar cookie thing before today but yes, all these folk predictors can also be wrong.

by Anonymousreply 445October 22, 2020 2:26 PM

[quote] Todd Zwillich:

Cher is hitting the campaign trail for Biden in Las Vegas and Phoenix this weekend, per the Biden campaign. Here's the time Cher called into C-Span and the look on Peter Slen's face when it dawns on him.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 446October 22, 2020 2:26 PM

This is genius.

The media were pestering him with "Are you going to add justices to the Supreme Court?" and he replies "We'll set up a bipartisan commission of scholars and other experts to study it, and it'll give me a set of recommendations in 180 days".

The media can't denigrate the idea of having top scholars and experts carefully analyzing and deliberating on such an important question.

Love that he and his campaign outsmarted them. Dementia? Senility? Hardly.

The media need to find another angle in their desperate efforts to make this a horserace/"knock Biden down a peg."

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 447October 22, 2020 2:34 PM

The far left needs to shut up and play the game of politics

by Anonymousreply 448October 22, 2020 2:41 PM

Do you think we are going to have exit polls this year? It seems to be impossible and useless task now.

What will the CNN 20 people election night panel is going to occupy themselves with? Must be a major headache for networks.

by Anonymousreply 449October 22, 2020 3:32 PM

I wonder. If 60% of people have voted before November 3, and there is a partisan skew to waiting to vote then, exit polls will be really distorted

by Anonymousreply 450October 22, 2020 3:42 PM

[quote]all these folk predictors can also be wrong.

Like yard signs, rally sizes, and all of those supposed predictive algorithms, they're worthless.

by Anonymousreply 451October 22, 2020 3:46 PM

R450, I really doubt they are going to do them this year.

by Anonymousreply 452October 22, 2020 3:47 PM

PA early ballot numbers so far show a Democratic lean, as predicted (most Republicans say they'll vote in person).

Early voting by mail: Democrats - 946,662; Republicans - 262,838; Independents - 112,224

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 453October 22, 2020 4:01 PM

@QuinnipiacPoll puts Biden +10 w/13% of AA, 14% of Hispanic & 13% of 18-34 undecided, compared to 3% of whites & 4% of 50-64 (Trump's best age group). Not the ideal Trump audience for a late surge. His one path remains: turning out a lot more non-col & non-urban than polls expect

by Anonymousreply 454October 22, 2020 7:23 PM

The far left is a lost cause.

by Anonymousreply 455October 22, 2020 7:24 PM

#presidential Approval:

Approve 41% Disaprove 55%

@QuinnipiacPoll (LV)

by Anonymousreply 456October 22, 2020 7:26 PM

Trump job approval 10/18/20 @Civiqs daily survey

National: 41% Approve 56% Disapprove

States, net approve: Indiana +5 Kansas +2 South Carolina +1 Utah -1 Montana -2 Texas -2 Iowa -4 Ohio -4 Alaska -7 Georgia -7 Florida -8 New Mexico -9 North Carolina -9

h

by Anonymousreply 457October 22, 2020 7:27 PM

Looks like R's yuuuuuuge longshot is that those nonwhite "undecideds" are closet/shy Trump leaners?

by Anonymousreply 458October 22, 2020 7:32 PM

WTF is wrong with Indiana?

by Anonymousreply 459October 22, 2020 7:33 PM

Indiana is odd as Pence himself was not that popular when he left to go back to Washington four years ago, as well as having gone for Obama the first time.

by Anonymousreply 460October 22, 2020 7:36 PM

Carville says Dems will "win", but if Dems don't win by 5%+, GOP will steal the election.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 461October 22, 2020 7:36 PM

5% nationally is roughly the number to offset the lopsided CA and northeast "extra" D votes.

by Anonymousreply 462October 22, 2020 7:39 PM

"(Seeing) multiple polls out of districts Romney carried by 15+ & Trump 10+ in 2016 where Joe Biden is now ahead. These are suburbs of Indianapolis, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Antonio. This suggests real problems for Republicans up & down ballot."

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 463October 22, 2020 9:03 PM

It's suburban women doing that, R463. They are done with Trump.

by Anonymousreply 464October 22, 2020 9:08 PM

I feel like there is nothing I have ever wanted more in my life than for these motherfuckers to lose and lose big.

by Anonymousreply 465October 22, 2020 9:36 PM

11.3 days left

by Anonymousreply 466October 22, 2020 11:29 PM

[quote] Trump job approval 10/18/20 @Civiqs daily survey National: 41% Approve 56% Disapprove States, net approve: Indiana +5 Kansas +2 South Carolina +1 Utah -1 Montana -2 Texas -2 Iowa -4 Ohio -4 Alaska -7 Georgia -7 Florida -8 New Mexico -9 North Carolina -9h

Is there a reason that you post these numbers and include no link?

by Anonymousreply 467October 23, 2020 12:52 AM

R465, it's not just what I want; I feel like there is [bold]nothing more important for our country[/bold] than for these motherfuckers to lose and lose big.

by Anonymousreply 468October 23, 2020 2:32 AM

#Michigan Senate Poll

Peters (D) 45% (+6) James (R) 39%

EPIC-MRA (LV, 10/15-19)

by Anonymousreply 469October 23, 2020 12:37 PM

That's way too many undecideds for comfort in Michigan Senate race.

by Anonymousreply 470October 23, 2020 12:42 PM

Yep. Why is Peters underperforming?

by Anonymousreply 471October 23, 2020 12:56 PM

New Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania:

Biden 51% Trump 44%

That's very much in line with what other quality polls have shown, and with the averages, which put Biden up 6.2 points.

by Anonymousreply 472October 23, 2020 12:57 PM

The video of Biden hugging that boy was really touching.

by Anonymousreply 473October 23, 2020 1:01 PM

FLORIDA Biden 49% (+2) Trump 47%

@StPetePolls/@Fla_Pol, LV, 10/21-22

by Anonymousreply 474October 23, 2020 1:16 PM

Weighted average +9.8 Biden. Narrowing.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 475October 23, 2020 1:19 PM

Goddamn these constant IBD polls that have Biden up only 5% are giving me the vapors. He can't win the EC with that national margin. At least IBD has him at 50%.

by Anonymousreply 476October 23, 2020 1:35 PM

Yes, but we have to take the aggregate. Watching state polls is more important

by Anonymousreply 477October 23, 2020 1:44 PM

[quote]Why is Peters underperforming?

His opponent is younger and fresher, and lies with skillful abandon. Peters is practically charisma-free, unfortunately.

by Anonymousreply 478October 23, 2020 1:57 PM

We need to stop nominating candidates who lack charisma

by Anonymousreply 479October 23, 2020 2:03 PM

Three undecided GA voters on MSNBC this morning (on Stephanie's show). All black women.

1. "Yes, I've decided. I'll vote for Biden."

2. "I'm going to decide after I've done every shred of research I can do."

3. "[dramatic exhale] I'm going to wait 'til the fact checkers do their job tomorrow. As of right now I am NOT moved."

Undecided voters are so disingenuous and officious. They just love the attention.

Annoying AF.

by Anonymousreply 480October 23, 2020 2:05 PM

2, 3 are ridiculous. Fact checkers have been Exposing Trump lies nonstop for five years. Dense

by Anonymousreply 481October 23, 2020 2:07 PM

Undecided voters are low-information and/or dense, and/or disingenuous children who are desperate for attention.

by Anonymousreply 482October 23, 2020 2:09 PM

220,000 dead and they can’t decide. Jesus.

by Anonymousreply 483October 23, 2020 2:10 PM

How many of these "undecided" voters are going to end up not even voting? Meanwhile, more than 2 million of these ladies' fellow Georgians have already voted, more than twice as many as around this time in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 484October 23, 2020 2:19 PM

Susan Collins is struggling.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 485October 23, 2020 2:54 PM

How do we know anything about the Maine race? I don't think there have been any polls for weeks.

by Anonymousreply 486October 23, 2020 2:56 PM

R486, here.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 487October 23, 2020 2:57 PM

I hate the “mighty joe biden” bit. Can we not with this? How about no more personality cults, and we stop puffing this man up into something he’s definitely not. He’s a frail old man not Paul Bunyan. This is stupid in the eyes of most people.

by Anonymousreply 488October 23, 2020 3:04 PM

Trump has a meaningful shot to win the electoral college, but he needs some combination of either (1) a lot of tightening in the polls and a small polling error or (2) a little tightening in the polls and a large polling error.

by Anonymousreply 489October 23, 2020 3:10 PM

Thanks, R487, but the latest polls I see there were from almost three weeks ago (Oct. 2-6).

by Anonymousreply 490October 23, 2020 3:12 PM

There will be an avalanche of final polls next week until November 1

by Anonymousreply 491October 23, 2020 3:15 PM

[quote]Undecided voters are so disingenuous and officious.

SNL got it right in 2012:

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 492October 23, 2020 3:25 PM

Florida Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 50% Biden (D): 46%

Rasmussen / October 21, 2020 / n=800 / Online

by Anonymousreply 493October 23, 2020 3:28 PM

Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120% TX - 55% MN - 37% FL - 35% WI - 31% GA - 21% AZ - 19% NC - 16% OH - 15% NV - 13%

by Anonymousreply 494October 23, 2020 3:31 PM

R493 I thought Biden was leading in Florida, what happened? Trump ahead by 4 points is a lot.

by Anonymousreply 495October 23, 2020 3:59 PM

Rasmussen is a rightwing pollster. Think of his results as indicating a best case scenario where Republicans turnout in historic numbers and Democratic turnout is low

by Anonymousreply 496October 23, 2020 4:06 PM

Rasmussen assumes very high Republican turnout, low to moderate Democratic turnout

by Anonymousreply 497October 23, 2020 4:06 PM

Also thought I'd point out that there are many Florida voters who are up north still who are voting from their summer residence who aren't being polled.

by Anonymousreply 498October 23, 2020 4:08 PM

[quote]I hate the “mighty joe biden” bit. Can we not with this? How about no more personality cults

Simmer down. It's a riff on the movie title Mighty Joe Young.

Or as I prefer to take it, a riff on Grant Lee Buffalo's album Mighty Joe Moon.

by Anonymousreply 499October 23, 2020 4:18 PM

At this point 4 years ago 1.2M 18-29 year olds had voted.

As of last night 3.9m 18-29 year olds have voted

Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120%

TX - 55%

MN - 37%

FL - 35%

WI - 31%

GA - 21%

AZ - 19%

NC - 16%

OH - 15%

NV - 13%

Source: @TargetSmart

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 500October 23, 2020 4:26 PM

You simmer down. No one under 50 gets your cultural references. Undecided voters aren't swayed by rhetoric like this. It's unseemly and, in Biden's case, laughable. He's a frail old man.

by Anonymousreply 501October 23, 2020 4:26 PM

Blocking R501. Uncultured idiot.

by Anonymousreply 502October 23, 2020 4:28 PM

[quote] He's a frail old man.

He has no problem with ramps.

He can drink a glass of water with one hand.

Seems to be doing better than the other guy.

by Anonymousreply 503October 23, 2020 4:31 PM

R476, yes, he CAN win if he’s 5 points ahead of Trump in the popular vote. If he’s 6 ahead, it’s impossible for Trump to win. But if Biden is 5 ahead, it doesn’t mean he “can’t win” the electoral college, it just means Trump has a slightly better chance of subverting the popular vote and pulling out a miraculous electoral college win.

by Anonymousreply 504October 23, 2020 4:32 PM

Blocking R502. Just plain STUPID.

by Anonymousreply 505October 23, 2020 4:39 PM

[quote]No one under 50 gets your cultural references. Undecided voters aren't swayed by rhetoric like this.

Good thing then that DL isn't exactly 'Undecided Voters' Central.

by Anonymousreply 506October 23, 2020 5:01 PM

Just watched 538 blog - they said Trump had about 13% chance of winning - in 2016, at this point, he had a 30% chance. (fwiw)

by Anonymousreply 507October 23, 2020 5:10 PM

Slow start to early voting in Milwaukee, compared to suburbs.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 508October 23, 2020 5:13 PM

I’m worried about Milwaukee and Detroit turnout

by Anonymousreply 509October 23, 2020 5:16 PM

I’m worried about Milwaukee and Detroit turnout

by Anonymousreply 510October 23, 2020 5:16 PM

IOW it’s all about WHO turns out. Haven’t looked at the crosstabs but presumably Trump’s 44 percent is mostly white working class men and some working class white women. If college educated white voters, single white women, Black, Brown & AAPI voters out-vote them, Biden wins PA.

by Anonymousreply 511October 23, 2020 5:16 PM

BREAKING:

New Meredith College poll of North Carolina

Biden +4

by Anonymousreply 512October 23, 2020 5:25 PM

I hate the 538 blog doing that chance of winning stuff. Just give the polls for each state and don't get into predictions. With the loss of a few key states, Trump turned a 30% chance of winning into 100% in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 513October 23, 2020 5:50 PM

BREAKING:

New 538/IPSOS post debate poll

Biden wins by +16.9

Biden wins on policy by +16.4

by Anonymousreply 514October 23, 2020 5:53 PM

[quote]If college educated white voters, single white women, Black, Brown & AAPI voters out-vote them, Biden wins PA.

MSNBC reporter was in a legacy Democratic county in PA which swung large to Trump in 2016. From folks she talked to:

- two legacy Democrats who were Trump 2016 voters plan to vote for him again

- one legacy Republican changed his registration to Democrat and plans to vote for Biden

- one Democrat who was a Trump 2016 voter will now vote for Biden

So Trump has lost half of his 2016 voters in this tiny unrepresentative group.

Hopefully, this reflects the general state of affairs.

by Anonymousreply 515October 23, 2020 6:02 PM

Economist: Oct 22nd 2020 IN HINDSIGHT, DONALD TRUMP’S surprise victory in the presidential election in 2016 should not have been quite so surprising. Mr Trump had an edge among less-educated white voters, who make up a disproportionate share of the electorate in several crucial battleground states; the gap between his favourability ratings and Hillary Clinton’s also decreased markedly after the third presidential debate; then, just 11 days before the election, there was the letter by James Comey, the FBI director, announcing the reopening of a probe into Mrs Clinton’s emails. These three events all helped to give Mr Trump a boost in the polls large enough to deliver him a majority in the electoral college. Can he repeat the feat?

It will be much harder this time around. Perhaps the main reason is that his opponent, Joe Biden, is much more popular than he is. According to The Economist’s monthly average of polls conducted by YouGov, 48% of registered voters rate Mr Biden favourably, versus 49% who rate him unfavourably—a deficit of just one percentage point. Mr Trump’s net favourability rating, by contrast, clocks in at minus 13; 43% view him positively and 56% negatively. Indeed, Mr Biden is also much better liked by Americans than Mrs Clinton was in 2016: at this point in the race, her net favourability rating was -14, 13 points worse than Mr Biden’s today.

by Anonymousreply 516October 23, 2020 6:18 PM

I live in a state where you do not have to register by party, so I'm curious about the states where you do have to register by party affiliation. If you are a republican and want to vote for a democrat, you don't have to register again just to change your party affiliation, do you?

by Anonymousreply 517October 23, 2020 6:20 PM

I think it matters in some states only in the primaries, R517.

by Anonymousreply 518October 23, 2020 6:45 PM

*MICHIGAN*

EPIC-MRA poll

Biden +9

Biden (48%)

Trump (39%)

[Likely Voters, Oct 15-19, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 519October 23, 2020 7:11 PM

From Meredith College:

NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 48%, Trump 46% From Susquehanna Polling & Research:

FLORIDA: Biden 46%, Trump 46%

by Anonymousreply 520October 23, 2020 7:14 PM

I hope the Dems are working on a final October surprise. God knows the Republicans are busy fabricating some.

by Anonymousreply 521October 23, 2020 7:17 PM

MICHIGAN Biden 51% (+9) Trump 42% . #MIsen: Peters (D-inc) 49% (+8) James (R) 41%

Opinion Insight/@AAF (R), LV, 10/3-6 h

by Anonymousreply 522October 23, 2020 8:10 PM

Michigan looks good. We need to focus on PA, then FL, then WI, then OH, Then NC, then TX, then GA. Keep eye on NV too

by Anonymousreply 523October 23, 2020 8:12 PM

From Basswood Research:

ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 48%

by Anonymousreply 524October 23, 2020 8:13 PM

USC Dornsife poll (one of the few that got it right in 2016):

Biden up 12 over Trump, 54% to 42%, LV

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 525October 23, 2020 8:26 PM

Maricopa county voters have returned more than a million ballots.

by Anonymousreply 526October 23, 2020 9:29 PM

Dave Wasserman: Dems are deluding themselves if they think rural white voters aren’t going to turn out. It’ll be through the roof.

To me, the biggest remaining question mark is rural *nonwhite* turnout - esp. in FL/GA/NC/TX.

by Anonymousreply 527October 23, 2020 9:31 PM

I don know any Democrat that has thought that rural white voters wouldn’t come out in force.

by Anonymousreply 528October 23, 2020 9:34 PM

Arizona: From Oct. 7 -- when early voting opened -- through Oct. 19, almost 281,000 Democrats turned in ballots compared with 218,000 from Republicans. Around 25,000 Arizonans have voted in person compared with approximately 9,000 in the same time period four years ago and 42.3% of Democrats who turned in early ballots had either not voted or voted in just one of the past three election cycles, according to officials.

In highly coveted Pennsylvania, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in ballot requests, with 1.8 million to Republicans' more than 700,000.

In Ohio -- a key state for President Trump -- early ballot tallies from the most populous county show registered Democrats have accounted for 55% of tallied early in-person ballots, while registered Republicans are just at 6%.

This week, Florida's Division of Elections reported 154,004 votes cast by Democrats at early voting locations compared with Republicans' 153,743. Nearly 2.7 million mail ballots have been cast in the Sunshine State, with Democrats leading Republicans by 481,631 votes.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 529October 23, 2020 9:37 PM

That’s not good in Florida. A lot of Republicans will vote in person on Election Day. I’m hoping that’s reflecting a large number of elderly people that want to vote on Election Day, from both parties.

If it’s a large majority of Republicans on November 3 in Florida, like it will be in most other states, we haven’t got a chance in hell. The margin is too narrow.

by Anonymousreply 530October 23, 2020 9:42 PM

President (National)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 39% Jorgensen (L) 2% Hawkins (G) 1% West (I) 1%

10/20-10/22 by Ipsos (B-) 1214 RV

by Anonymousreply 531October 23, 2020 9:44 PM

I have mentioned elsewhere that in a Florida it's possible that a significant number of voters are still up north from the summer who don't plan to return to the state until after election day.

by Anonymousreply 532October 23, 2020 9:47 PM

Would they vote by mail, r532?

by Anonymousreply 533October 23, 2020 9:52 PM

Probably so the in person would be less than assumed

by Anonymousreply 534October 23, 2020 10:04 PM

[quote] Hollins, the first Black clerk in Harris County history and the youngest at 34, credits a backlash against voter suppression for the unexpectedly high turnout. “Efforts to suppress votes in Texas and across the South have very often been done in secret, in smoke-filled rooms, in ways the public can’t fully digest,” he says. “But a voter—a senior or a person with a disability—can feel when the governor says they have to drive 100 miles round-trip to drop off their mail ballot in person. When it’s thrown in your face like it has been this election season, voters are responding by saying, ‘I’ll show you,’ and coming out in record numbers to have their voices heard.”

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 535October 23, 2020 10:18 PM

+9.7 Biden weighted average. Narrowing.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 536October 23, 2020 11:28 PM

The annoying GA undecided voters from this morning.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 537October 23, 2020 11:29 PM

Some hood news from Joy Reid

11.7% of votes cast in Texas so far, from voters who did not vote in 2016

1 in 5 votes cast in early voting across the country look to be from first time voters (out of nearly 50 million cast votes)

That is huge

by Anonymousreply 538October 24, 2020 12:19 AM

Wow, narrowing by a whole tenth of a percentage point. I’m so worried.

by Anonymousreply 539October 24, 2020 12:42 AM

You guys have to remember that the voting is taking place right now. By the time election day comes around, it’ll almost be done.

by Anonymousreply 540October 24, 2020 12:50 AM

Not really almost done. Still, at least 40 to 65 million people will vote on November 3

by Anonymousreply 541October 24, 2020 1:00 AM

:

"Among Latina women, Biden leads Trump by a whopping 34 percentage points (59 percent to 25 percent). Among Latino men, Biden’s lead is only eight points (47 percent to 39 percent). These patterns are similar across both Latino college graduates and those without a degree.

"Stephanie Valencia, the president of Equis Research, which focuses on Latino voters, told us that its polls suggest that Latino men may have even moved slightly toward Trump this year. If so, they are the only large demographic group to do so."

"… what has alienated so many older, female and suburban voters is a key part of Mr. Trump’s appeal to these men, interviews with dozens of Mexican-American men supporting Mr. Trump shows: To them, the macho allure of Mr. Trump is undeniable. He is forceful, wealthy and, most important, unapologetic. In a world where at any moment someone might be attacked for saying the wrong thing, he says the wrong thing all the time and does not bother with self-flagellation."

***

If those numbers hold up, and the undecideds split, then Biden would win the Hispanic vote nationally by something like 22 points, roughly 60-38, given a couple of points to third party. Hillary won Hispanics by 38 points, 66-28. That's the reason a state like Florida is tighter than it otherwise should be, given so many areas that have shifted toward Biden.

This survey is interesting because Hispanics always tilt unusually toward a presidential incumbent, but I had never seen it broken down by gender. Maybe it has always been the males who are accounting for the bulk of that change.

by Anonymousreply 542October 24, 2020 1:00 AM

The media are making Biden’s innocuous comment re phasing out oil eventually the top story. Not all of Trump’s crimes and lies. Jesus. They found their angle to bring it to the wire.

by Anonymousreply 543October 24, 2020 1:09 AM

All my life, and I'm 65, I've associated absentee ballots with old people, Trump's best age group - no? I guess that's flipped this year?

by Anonymousreply 544October 24, 2020 1:14 AM

[quote] Trump's best age group - no? I guess that's flipped this year?

Correct. Seniors are with Biden now.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 545October 24, 2020 1:36 AM

A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 54% of debate watchers believed Joe Biden won the matchup, while 39% said Donald Trump did. Only 8% of those who watched said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

by Anonymousreply 546October 24, 2020 1:49 AM

How the fuck is that whiny, obese asshole macho? He’s the biggest pussy ever.

by Anonymousreply 547October 24, 2020 2:11 AM

What I don't understand is if you live in a state that offers in person early voting, why not take advantage of it?

by Anonymousreply 548October 24, 2020 2:15 AM

R548, not every polling place is open for early voting, at least not where I am (New York). That means that you might have to go some distance in order to vote early. That can be a problem for some voters.

by Anonymousreply 549October 24, 2020 2:33 AM

idk, best to ignore polls. I'm serious here. Plus I just read that the guy who predicted Trump's win in 2016 has....oh I can't say it. He predicted that....oh no I can't. It's bad though.

by Anonymousreply 550October 24, 2020 2:35 AM

Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 50% (-) Trump (R): 44% (+3) Jorgensen (L): 1% (-1) Hawkins (G): 1% (-)

Echelon Insights / October 20, 2020 / n=1006 / Online

(% chg w Sept 25)

by Anonymousreply 551October 24, 2020 2:45 AM

@Nate_Cohn Biden+7 in Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College, 51 to 44 percent. This is a solid pollster and they have not shown rosy results for Biden in the past here. Their last two surveys were Biden+4 in August and a tied race in February.

by Anonymousreply 552October 24, 2020 2:46 AM

[quote]I hope the Dems are working on a final October surprise. God knows the Republicans are busy fabricating some.

Hunter is all they've got. Twitter's reaction? Devastating for Hunter's campaign.

by Anonymousreply 553October 24, 2020 2:55 AM

Pennsylvania's numbers must be 5% or more off for Trump to win it. That's outside the margin of error. Last election only 1.8% separated Trump from Clinton in the polls.

Remember Biden only needs PA, MI and WI.

by Anonymousreply 554October 24, 2020 3:01 AM

Which guy, R550? Say it, bitch.

by Anonymousreply 555October 24, 2020 3:16 AM

Im Not worried but anything to make us worried motivates Dems so it is all good.

by Anonymousreply 556October 24, 2020 3:17 AM

Oh, the Trafalgar guy, R550. Funny.

by Anonymousreply 557October 24, 2020 4:01 AM

You know who else correctly predicted 2016 —AND INCIDENTALLY every pres election going back to 1984? Alan Lichtman. He says Trump is gonna lose.

by Anonymousreply 558October 24, 2020 4:09 AM

Desperate in Nevada.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 559October 24, 2020 6:56 AM

CBS News:

After 12 days of early voting, Georgia reports that total early vote turnout (that's the in-person total + total mailed-in ballots) is up 114% compared to the first 12 days of early voting in 2016.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 560October 24, 2020 7:17 AM

[quote] idk, best to ignore polls. I'm serious here. Plus I just read that the guy who predicted Trump's win in 2016 has....oh I can't say it. He predicted that....oh no I can't. It's bad though.

Huh?

by Anonymousreply 561October 24, 2020 7:51 AM

Interesting R542, thanks for posting that.

In a previous thread there were links to past presidential races and the Latino vote, and it seems that the Latino demographic likes to vote for an incumbent, regardless of which party they are.

by Anonymousreply 562October 24, 2020 10:02 AM

R561, I think he's talking about that Stony Brook professor who predicted Trump would win in 2016, who said a couple months ago that Trump will win in 2020 "in a landslide."

by Anonymousreply 563October 24, 2020 10:04 AM

Ten days

by Anonymousreply 564October 24, 2020 11:50 AM

Young voters are WOKE! Early Votes Cast (Ages 18-29) Texas 493,314 Florida 257,720 (Early votes cast in 2016 - 44,107) N.C. 204,986 (Early votes in 2016 - 25,150) Virginia 178,496 (Early votes in 2016 - 23,152) Georgia 170,282 (in '16 - 32,960)

by Anonymousreply 565October 24, 2020 12:22 PM

Young voters are WOKE! Early Votes Cast (Ages 18-29) Texas 493,314 Florida 257,720 (Early votes cast in 2016 - 44,107) N.C. 204,986 (Early votes in 2016 - 25,150) Virginia 178,496 (Early votes in 2016 - 23,152) Georgia 170,282 (in '16 - 32,960)

by Anonymousreply 566October 24, 2020 12:23 PM

Explanation of how Q-Anon factors into this election.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 567October 24, 2020 12:49 PM

Some interesting 2016 polling data. As of this date, 11 days from the Election, Biden has a RCP Average lead of 7.9 points. Clinton held a lead of 5.2 points at the same point in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 568October 24, 2020 1:19 PM

PA has 61% chance of going to Biden. That's nowhere near a lock. Still a long way to go.

Remarkable though.. JB could win the popular vote by ~7% and lose the electoral college. Not inconceivabl.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 569October 24, 2020 1:22 PM

R569, Come on, it’s way higher than 61%. That guy on Twitter is right wing and wants Trump to win.

by Anonymousreply 570October 24, 2020 2:14 PM

Thanks for pointing That out r570. I didn’t realize that

by Anonymousreply 571October 24, 2020 2:28 PM

Weighted average now +9.2 Biden.

I predicted +6 next week around Wednesday.

by Anonymousreply 572October 24, 2020 3:25 PM

Sorry link

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 573October 24, 2020 3:26 PM

The weighted average poll troll is exhausting.

by Anonymousreply 574October 24, 2020 3:31 PM

Young people are showing up in BIG numbers!

These numbers could be a real game-changer.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 575October 24, 2020 3:33 PM

Look at the independent dummies voting third party.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 576October 24, 2020 3:34 PM

R575, that’s awesome. Thanks for that.

by Anonymousreply 577October 24, 2020 3:34 PM

In 2016, pollsters said it was very likely that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency.

They were wrong.

Here’s what is different this time.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 578October 24, 2020 3:36 PM

139 million voted in 2016.

56 million have voted so far.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 579October 24, 2020 3:51 PM

Biden and Jill speaking live in PA.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 580October 24, 2020 3:53 PM

Watching

by Anonymousreply 581October 24, 2020 3:56 PM

Pennsylvania says half of requested mail-in ballots have already been cast

by Anonymousreply 582October 24, 2020 4:01 PM

I wish Biden had worked in a lot of this blue collar and Middle America rhetoric into the last debate. It’s great populist stuff

by Anonymousreply 583October 24, 2020 4:03 PM

I dropped mine in an official ballot box last Tuesday in Pa, and there was a huge steady stream of people in line-40 to 50 at a time. This isn’t early voting btw, it’s just putting your envelope in a box. The early voting line was huge, at least 2-3 hour wait. I went with some family and friends, and we are still waiting for our ballots to be received in the online system.

by Anonymousreply 584October 24, 2020 4:10 PM

I can’t wait until someone starts a new thread. This one barely scrolls for me anymore, and it makes my iPhone battery heat up instantly.

by Anonymousreply 585October 24, 2020 4:11 PM

As you wish, r585.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 586October 24, 2020 4:13 PM

To R572– Nate explains why the poll average has gone down to 9.2. It isn’t because of the debate or anything Biden has fucked up. It’s because as we get closer to Nov 3, older polls drop out of the model. There haven’t been as many 14-pt leads for Biden lately. Remember those wacky *outlier* polls? They’re no longer in the model.

I forget what your reasoning was for predicting a Biden +6 poll average by Wednesday the 28th. Remind me again please?

[quote] Hey folks, our national polling average is now Biden +9.2, as compared with Biden +9.7 yesterday. What caused the change given that the national tracking polls were decent for Biden this AM? It's older polls dropping out of the average.

[quote] Following major events like debates, our average shifts forward the window of time that it considers, and more recent polls have indeed been more consistent with a Biden lead of about 9 points nationally; haven't seen as many of those Biden +14s lately.

[quote] It's not perfect, and we'll probably tinker with these mechanics post-2020, but keep in mind that our averages are really a blend of an RCP style average over a fixed window of time (where this sort of thing happens a lot) and a HuffPost/Pollster style trendline.

[quote] I'd also note that this didn't have much effect on our *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and uses different mechanics for handling national polls to the extent it uses them at all. It shows Biden +8.0 in the popular vote, essentially unchanged from +8.1 yesterday.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 587October 24, 2020 4:46 PM

[quote] I forget what your reasoning was for predicting a Biden +6 poll average by Wednesday the 28th. Remind me again please?

I figure the media will do whatever it can to say Trump was being presidential during the debates, that he’s exhibited a “new tone”, and some minor thing Biden said was supposedly a huge gaffe. I think the media are trying the latter with the oil comment. It’s clear they want more bullshit drama. They talked about this on Pod Save yesterday. That’s why I guessed that it’ll narrow to 6 sometime in the middle of next week.

by Anonymousreply 588October 24, 2020 5:41 PM

FYI: As they get increasingly desperate I think we are going to hear more and more about "chumps" being Joe's "deplorables" moment. One of the official campaign accounts is spreading this 9 second clip as far as they can--even though the message is positive they insist on painting themselves as victims.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 589October 24, 2020 8:17 PM

Rick Wilson is even more prepared than I was.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 590October 24, 2020 11:09 PM
Loading
Need more help? Click Here.

Yes indeed, we too use "cookies." Take a look at our privacy/terms or if you just want to see the damn site without all this bureaucratic nonsense, click ACCEPT. Otherwise, you'll just have to find some other site for your pointless bitchery needs.

×

Become a contributor - post when you want with no ads!