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Is Donald Trump starting to make an electoral comeback?

(CNN) With 53 days left before voters decide his political fate, there were stirrings Thursday that suggest the political freefall President Donald Trump has been in for months has not only ended, but that the Electoral College landscape may be starting to move back in his direction, ever so slightly.

The big news came out of the Cook Political Report, one of the preeminent political handicapping services in the country, which moved two states -- Florida and Nevada -- in the President's direction. Florida moved from "lean Democrat" to "Toss Up," while Nevada went from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat." "Biden's Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump," wrote Cook's Amy Walter of the moves. "Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead."

Also on Thursday, The Economist updated its electoral model, writing this:

"In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November's presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Donald Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has clawed back a sizeable chunk of support." All of which leads us to the question: Are we seeing the stirring of an actual Trump comeback? Or is the movement effectively a dead-cat bounce rather than a sign of an actual increased chance for Trump to beat former Vice President Joe Biden on November 3?

That question is difficult to answer with any sort of certainty for a few reasons -- most notably that we are still 53 days from the election. And we are still in the grips of a pandemic that is projected to kill more than 400,000 Americans by the end of the year. And in the middle of a national conversation about race that has sparked protests -- peaceful and violent -- across the country. And with the least predictable or traditional person in the White House in modern American history.

In short: The last two-ish months before an election are always chaotic and somewhat unpredictable. That goes quadruple for this election. But simply because we can't say anything definitive doesn't mean there's nothing to see here. And what these latest stirrings in the electoral map look like are a sort of return to normalcy in the electorate as opposed to any major movement in Trump's favor.

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by Anonymousreply 43Last Wednesday at 9:37 AM

(cont)

Think of if this way: The electorate is like a rubber band. The dual summer crises of the death of George Floyd and the mounting death toll in the United States from coronavirus stretched that rubber band heavily in Biden's direction as voters rapidly lost confidence in the President's ability to effectively deal with the pandemic and/or direct a serious national dialogue about race and policing. All that's happened in the last month or so is that the rubber band has returned slightly closer to its normal level of tension. It hasn't begun to be stretched in Trump's direction and, in fact, it still is more in Biden's favor, although slightly less so than, say, two months ago.

Consider that while Cook's ratings changes narrow Biden's Electoral College lead, even with Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) back in "Toss Up," Biden has 279 electoral votes in their projections. Which is nine more than he needs to be elected in November. And that while The Economist's model now gives Trump a better chance of winning than it did this summer, G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist who wrote the piece about the latest projections, noted this on Twitter: "Context is key tho. We give Trump less than half the chance we would have at this point in 16 if we ran the same model. The last 2 weeks (post-convention) are typically the incumbent's best of the cycle—yet polls moved modestly, if at all, and POTUS's odds are only 3 pts better."

And there's this: Biden's lead in national polling has remained steady for months. At the moment, the CNN poll of polls pegs Biden at 51% and Trump at 43%. Given the deep polarization in the country -- Trump is, according to Gallup, the most polarizing president in American history -- some regression to the mean, electorally speaking, seems somewhat inevitable as Election Day draws closer. We are not a country at the moment in which a presidential candidate of either party is likely to score a massive victory.

That's not to say that Trump can't win. He absolutely can. But it is to say that he, despite some recent movement in places like Florida and Nevada (and even Pennsylvania) in his favor, remains a clear underdog to beat Biden to 270 electoral votes. Still.

by Anonymousreply 109/15/2020

FAKE NEWS!!! Nice try, cunt! Shitler is sinking in the polls!!!

by Anonymousreply 209/15/2020

r2...

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by Anonymousreply 309/15/2020

After the lessons of 2016, I could give a rat’s ass what the polls have to say.

by Anonymousreply 409/15/2020

Trump signs all over the place in northern Wisconsin. Very few for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 509/16/2020

Fuck off sign troll, they don’t mean shit either.

by Anonymousreply 609/16/2020

Vote Biden/Harris 2020!!!

by Anonymousreply 709/16/2020

R5 is busy posting the same sign thing on every political thread this AM. Must be the sequel to the Pennsylvania sign troll.

by Anonymousreply 809/16/2020

No, he is not.

by Anonymousreply 909/16/2020

Twitter is not a news source.

by Anonymousreply 1009/16/2020

TL:DR

by Anonymousreply 1109/16/2020

This is Trump's election to lose. He's the incumbent, he has all the force of four decades of celebrity hype behind him, and the entire Republican machine including his handpicked attorney general and postmaster general have his back. Putin's pitching in again with its relentless hacking and propagandizing operation, and the alt-right gun nut brigade is threatening to massacre us if we dare vote Biden in. So if in spite of all of this Orange Nero can't manage to finagle a second term, he has only his own repulsiveness to blame.

by Anonymousreply 1209/16/2020

I’d like to think that truth would keep him awake at night from November 4 on, R12.

Sadly, it seems he’ll never not see himself as everything that is good and right about ‘murica, even as he lives his remaining days in an orange jumpsuit.

by Anonymousreply 1309/16/2020

I live in Dallas and haven't seen a Trump sign yet. It's all Biden/Harris

by Anonymousreply 1409/16/2020

Trump was awful at the ABC Town Hall last night. His performance won't move his cultist, but it's another bump in his appear to moderates and independents.

by Anonymousreply 1509/16/2020

^ appeal, not appear

by Anonymousreply 1609/16/2020

Just when the polls move slightly towards Trump, he gets in his own way. That town hall was disastrous. Any bump (and it has been very small, mind you, with Biden going from +9 to +7 nationally over the past month) will disappear.

by Anonymousreply 1709/16/2020

Mail away mail away mail away: Ohio has surpassed its 2016 totals for mail-in absentee ballot requests with seven weeks to spare before the Nov. 3 election. Per Tobias, almost 1.38 million domestic voters had requested ballots be mailed to them, about 96,000 more than the entire November 2016 election. Notable are Franklin and Summit counties, two big Democratic counties that are 130% and 155%, respectively, ahead of their 2016 numbers.

by Anonymousreply 1809/16/2020

IF 2016 taught us anything it's that polls don't mean shit. I will believe it when the orange cheeto is gone.

by Anonymousreply 1909/16/2020

Oh definitely. Why would people listen to polls pointing to Biden being ahead when everyone saw how well that worked out for Hillary. She was ahead in polls and came out as the loser. Biden can’t speak in clear sentences and doesn’t stand up for himself.

by Anonymousreply 2009/16/2020

R18, those Ohio voters need to mail in or drop off their ballots as soon as possible.

by Anonymousreply 2109/16/2020

[quote] Biden can’t speak in clear sentences

You trolls just can't help yourself.

by Anonymousreply 2209/16/2020

After 2016, I dont give a shit about polls. Stop posting them

by Anonymousreply 2309/16/2020

R19, the mistake in the 2016 polls, especially in the Rust Belt states, was that they underestimated the turnout of whites with no college degree, and they overestimated the turnout of black voters. The pollsters have almost certainly corrected those assumptions this time.

by Anonymousreply 2409/16/2020

[quote] Twitter is not a news source.

It’s CNN, not Twitter, Einstein.

by Anonymousreply 2509/16/2020

[quote] The pollsters have almost certainly corrected those assumptions this time.

lol, snort. Right.

by Anonymousreply 2609/16/2020

[quote]After 2016, I dont give a shit about polls. Stop posting them

Yep. Even our resident Poll Troll seems to have gone dark.

by Anonymousreply 2709/16/2020

Remember the Florida Fiasco of 2000? Trump and his minions are working to multiply that by a factor of at least 10.

And he has the Supreme Court in his pocket to decide contested outcomes.

by Anonymousreply 2809/16/2020

I think the Cook Report is highly highly credible. We are in a fight to the death with these people, do you think they’re just going to hand back over the reins of power? This is going to be the most bloody, nasty, in the gutter election in history.

But you know what? Keep fighting. I have my Biden signs out, I did my training for the call center on Sunday, and of course, I keep giving money. Every person reading this, YOU have circles of influence, even if it’s just one or two people. Get them to go vote, tell them you don’t care who they cast their ballot for, but GO VOTE.

One of my sons in college (frosh) asked me to mail him his mail-in ballot, couldn’t be more proud of him for understanding his role as a citizen. So today, your job is to have a convo with one person and convince them to go vote. If I can get an asshole 18 yo to vote, you can too.

We MUST overwhelm them in sheer numbers, that’s the only way we can stop the certain war coming on election night. Don’t be afraid of violence, they’re so fucking fat they’ll be winded before they even get out of the car. We outnumber them by millions and millions. Never stop fighting.

Now go eat your breakfast you whores.

by Anonymousreply 2909/16/2020

I think the Cook Report is highly highly credible. We are in a fight to the death with these people, do you think they’re just going to hand back over the reins of power? This is going to be the most bloody, nasty, in the gutter election in history.

But you know what? Keep fighting. I have my Biden signs out, I did my training for the call center on Sunday, and of course, I keep giving money. Every person reading this, YOU have circles of influence, even if it’s just one or two people. Get them to go vote, tell them you don’t care who they cast their ballot for, but GO VOTE.

One of my sons in college (frosh) asked me to mail him his mail-in ballot, couldn’t be more proud of him for understanding his role as a citizen. So today, your job is to have a convo with one person and convince them to go vote. If I can get an asshole 18 yo to vote, you can too.

We MUST overwhelm them in sheer numbers, that’s the only way we can stop the certain war coming on election night. Don’t be afraid of violence, they’re so fucking fat they’ll be winded before they even get out of the car. We outnumber them by millions and millions. Never stop fighting.

Now go eat your breakfast you whores.

by Anonymousreply 3009/16/2020

R29 don’t tell people what their job is. People have the right to vote or not vote. And just because You try to convince them to vote for Slow Creepy Uncle Joe doesn’t mean they will listen to you. Many people saw him sniff women and children on film.

by Anonymousreply 3109/16/2020

CLICKBAIT RATINGS GRAB

The Trumpward movement from Cook Political and The Economist were merely reflections of Trump’s meager poll bounce during the August Republican Convention.

That bounce has evaporated now and the polls are climbing in Biden’s direction again.

MUCH ADO ABOUT CLICK THIRST

by Anonymousreply 3209/16/2020

Biden's ahead of Trumpito by 7 points in averaged polls. That hasn't changed in the past six months. If Biden still has that lead in November, he'll win the Electoral College by at least 100 votes.

Trumpito hasn't been ahead in a single poll for the past YEAR.

It's going to be a Biden blowout - not even close. Whether Trumpito throws a tantrum and tries to bury the results is another question.

by Anonymousreply 3309/16/2020

I hate to think it but without Covid exposing his incompetence, I believe Trump would be far ahead of Biden in the polls.

Turd's next term (God forbid) will be a neverending shitshow of failures. And as he flails and fumbles, in desperation he will retaliate by grabbing more power and surrounding himself with white 'yes men'.

by Anonymousreply 3409/16/2020

Oh, polls aren’t accurate at all.

They only showed that Hillary winning the popular vote and that the poll Trump could win the electoral college in 2016, which was true.

Don’t trust those polls that have fine-tuned their methods and got 2016 accurately.

by Anonymousreply 3509/16/2020

The “bloody” calls to violence are a dead giveaway.

R29 = Boris AF

by Anonymousreply 3609/16/2020

Wrong, r34.

Polls showed Biden and 4, other Democrats beating Trump in the electoral college for the two years BEFORE the pandemic.

Trump is a crooked, incompetent phony whose failed promises, corruption and instability were going to cost him re-election even in the best of times. The pandemic is just enhancing that process at great cost to America while the lazy pig tweets and fiddles.

by Anonymousreply 3709/16/2020

R31, Trump was sued by a woman who says he raped her when she was thirteen and currently is being sued for his DNA by a woman who claims he raped her in a store dressing room.

Any pix of Joe with Jeffrey? No? Just Trump, then?

Team Trump had best not go this route, his recent re-Tweet notwithstanding.

by Anonymousreply 3809/16/2020

[quote]Is Donald Trump starting to make an electoral comeback?

No. That's just Chris Cillizza, a political "pundit" who is reliably wrong.

[quote]CLICKBAIT RATINGS GRAB

Exactly.

by Anonymousreply 3909/16/2020

I love how Trumptards constantly bring up Biden's inappropriate behavior. It's like...really?

I was watching his "Press Conference" yesterday, and it's the SAME shit. The true entertainment was the CNN fact-checker--cute guy with glasses--head exploding over the ALL of the lies Trump told. His downslide from being objective at the beginning of the year to his current state of exasperation is HILARIOUS. He maintains decorum, but he's beginning to react like most of the CNN anchors to Trump's bullshit. A combination of disgust and incredulity. He was like "He told SO many lies."

by Anonymousreply 4009/17/2020

Yes, very popular among most voters now.

by Anonymousreply 41Last Wednesday at 9:26 AM

R4 is right. The polls were so far off in 2016 that I am not paying attention to them this time around.

My neighborhood is filled with Biden signs.

by Anonymousreply 42Last Wednesday at 9:34 AM

FAKE NEWS

Biden is still leading a landslide with 334 electoral votes versus Trump's paltry 198.

Boris is just desperate to disappear reality.

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by Anonymousreply 43Last Wednesday at 9:37 AM
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