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No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top issue: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s attempt to make civil unrest a central theme of his re-election campaign has yet to boost his political standing, as most Americans do not see crime as a major problem confronting the nation and a majority remain sympathetic to anti-racism protests, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The Aug. 31-Sept. 1 national opinion poll showed that 40% of registered voters support Trump, a Republican, compared with 47% who said they will vote for his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Biden’s lead is largely unchanged over the past three weeks during which both parties held conventions to nominate their candidates Trump and Biden for the presidency.

Trailing Biden in most national opinion polls since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus this year, Trump has sought to change the subject from a pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 Americans, blaming Black Lives Matters protesters for violence in the cities and accusing Biden of being weak on crime.

But the poll showed the majority — 78% — remain “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the coronavirus. Nearly 60% said Trump is at least partly responsible for the protracted school and business closures due to the virus, as well as for the high number of coronavirus cases in the United States. More than 6 million Americans have been infected with the virus, more people than in any other country.

By contrast, most Americans do not see crime as a major priority and do not think it is increasing in their communities, the poll showed.

Only about 8% of American adults listed crime as a top priority for the country, compared with 30% who said it was the economy or jobs, and 16% who said it was the healthcare system.

And 62% of registered voters, including 62% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans, said crime was not increasing in their communities

According to the poll, 53% of American adults said they remain sympathetic to people out protesting against racial inequality, nearly unchanged from 52% in a similar poll that ran in late July.

While support for the protesters has declined overall since the immediate aftermath of the police killing in May of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which sparked a national conversation on race, the poll showed more than half of suburban Americans and more than half of undecided registered voters are still sympathetic to them.

Trump and his Republican allies tried to re-focus the country’s attention on crime in America during their convention last week, as new confrontations erupted following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a crucial battleground that will help decide November’s election.

Trump also has attempted to stoke fears, especially among suburban white voters, about crime-ridden cities and falsely asserted that Biden would “defund the police.” Biden has rejected that position.

“No one will be safe in Biden’s America,” Trump said last week at the Republican national convention.

Biden has pushed back, accusing Trump of stirring up racist fears in the U.S. in hopes of reviving his campaign.

“The simple truth is Donald Trump failed to protect America. So now he’s trying to scare America,” Biden said in Pittsburgh this week.

The Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,335 American adults, including 551 Democrats and 523 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 to 5 percentage points.

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by Anonymousreply 238October 9, 2020 5:04 AM

Poor internet trolls. All of that hard work and for nothing! They might as well fire you!

by Anonymousreply 1September 2, 2020 5:36 PM

WOMP, WOMP, Americans don't want to be Nazis.

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by Anonymousreply 2September 2, 2020 5:39 PM

I'm sure one of our persistent right wing trolls will immediately come up with a poll stating that Trump is gaining some ground among the Polish/German over-60 population of Peoria. Gotta keep those FUD ("fear, uncertainty, doom") trolling fires burning.

by Anonymousreply 3September 2, 2020 5:41 PM

Is no true! Vatabout looting! Vatabout protests!

by Anonymousreply 4September 2, 2020 5:42 PM

Trump invented COVID-19 cure. I concerned since he may win the Nobel Prize for medicining.

by Anonymousreply 5September 2, 2020 5:44 PM

The media are really starting to panic. Lol.

by Anonymousreply 6September 2, 2020 5:46 PM

You think Reuters is fake news R6?

by Anonymousreply 7September 2, 2020 5:48 PM

If you're Retardo, a right-wing troll, anything truthful is fake news.

by Anonymousreply 8September 2, 2020 5:51 PM

But ... but ... look! Nancy got her hair done!

by Anonymousreply 9September 2, 2020 5:51 PM

Melania, Ivanka and Jared all used private email accounts to conduct government business.

LOCK!

THEM!

UP!

by Anonymousreply 10September 2, 2020 6:03 PM

There's a lot of new polling out today.

Some of it is good for Trump (eg. the new Monmouth poll showing Biden only ahead by a few points in PA) and some of it is good for Biden (such as the new Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and YouGov/Economist polls.)

There's also a Selzer poll expected out today.

by Anonymousreply 11September 2, 2020 6:07 PM

Quinnipiac Poll

September 2, 2020

Likely Voters

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

Independents back Biden 50 - 40 percent

Nearly 6 In 10 Say The Country Is Worse Off Than It Was In 2016

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by Anonymousreply 12September 2, 2020 6:18 PM

R12, thanks for that.

by Anonymousreply 13September 2, 2020 6:41 PM

Lots of good (for Biden) recent polls coming out today, but Biden will need to be far ahead to beat all the voter suppression of the Republicans. Get out the vote!

by Anonymousreply 14September 2, 2020 6:49 PM

Fox News will apparently have some state polls out tonight.

by Anonymousreply 15September 2, 2020 7:22 PM

Good

by Anonymousreply 16September 2, 2020 10:19 PM

The Fox state polls have Biden up 9 in AZ (at 49%), 8 in WI (at 50%), and 4 in NC (at 50%).

by Anonymousreply 17September 2, 2020 11:05 PM

R17, wow, and those are FOX polls.

by Anonymousreply 18September 2, 2020 11:06 PM

The Poll Troll can correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, Fox Polls don't have the Republican bias that Fox News has.

by Anonymousreply 19September 2, 2020 11:08 PM

R19, that's correct. The Fox pollster has a good reputation and is actually run by 2 polling companies -- a Democratic pollster & a Republican pollster.

by Anonymousreply 20September 3, 2020 12:02 AM

The trolls have egg on their face.

by Anonymousreply 21September 3, 2020 1:28 AM

The new Quinnipiac poll released today has Biden leading Trump by 10 points. But the real takeaway from the poll is that Trump's lead among whites without a college degree has dropped by 13 points compared to 2016. That's the whole ballgame right there if that number holds.

by Anonymousreply 22September 3, 2020 1:58 AM

Trump's convention flopped.

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by Anonymousreply 23September 3, 2020 1:59 AM

Dave Wasserman:

Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere.

Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this.

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by Anonymousreply 24September 3, 2020 4:02 AM

Michael Moore warns otherwise. 2016 Redux.

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by Anonymousreply 25September 3, 2020 4:12 AM

Michael Moore is an attention-whore who was wrong in 2012.

by Anonymousreply 26September 3, 2020 4:53 AM

Michael Moore is Lady G’s secret shame! He’s a closet republican and no longer cares about the people he claims he’s fighting for, aa long as he has something to rail against.

by Anonymousreply 27September 3, 2020 5:00 AM

Biden then needs to focus on slamming Trump on covid, preventing election fraud, and the big bear in the room, climate change.

He needs to capture the news cycle. Right now the media is driven by Trump with his antics. That must be wrested away from him and the GOP.

Get cracking, DP!

by Anonymousreply 28September 3, 2020 5:44 AM

Just remember Michael Moore voted for Ralph Nader in 2000.

I will never forget that and neither should any of you.

by Anonymousreply 29September 3, 2020 6:27 AM

Ralph Nader was a great candidate. Gore lost because he distanced himself from bill at the half assed advice of the neo liberal DNC.

by Anonymousreply 30September 3, 2020 6:31 AM

Michael Moore serves the great purpose to light a fire under the Liberal voters who think Biden has it in the bag. Don't let these poll numbers, favoring Biden, give you a false sense of security. Every single vote for Biden counts.

Do the research about mail-in voting or where the next drop box is where you can drop off your absentee ballot. Let your vote be one of many which show that Trump is pure scum and needs to be fired in an epic landslide.

by Anonymousreply 31September 3, 2020 7:15 AM

Voters are doing their part promoting mail ins. But what is the party they are voting for doing about preventing the destruction of the postal system that is going to be delivering these votes?

I know there is no answer. Its a rhetorical question.

by Anonymousreply 32September 3, 2020 8:17 AM

"... and the big bear in the room, climate change."

He'll lose voters if he talks about "carbon footprints" and eliminating coal production. Hillbillies see that as like getting socks for Christmas. They live for the moment.

by Anonymousreply 33September 3, 2020 10:12 AM

Michael Moore's warning was from last week, before these latest state and national polls were conducted showing Biden maintaining his lead. I don't know if Moore would modify his opinion, but in any case I like how his warnings keep us alert. Trump's base IS motivated—but so is Biden's and there are more of us, so let's keep it up.

by Anonymousreply 34September 3, 2020 11:33 AM

[quote]Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere.

Perhaps that's motivated by the fear of dying from the virus.

by Anonymousreply 35September 3, 2020 1:04 PM

PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46% Biden 46%

@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 8/25-27

by Anonymousreply 36September 3, 2020 1:16 PM

[quote]Fox News will apparently have some state polls out tonight.

Trump twitter explosion incoming.

by Anonymousreply 37September 3, 2020 1:43 PM

It really is shocking to see how deeply the Ku Klux Klan mindset still has a hold on so many Americans. But no, I don't think that putting on his pointy hood and holding up a noose is a winning strategy for Orange Nero. I can't be the only person who looks at that little cracker who killed those people in Kenosha and think, just another delusional mass shooter. Not the Birth of a Nation/Helter Skelter/Boogaloo all the assbearded basement dwellers have been fantasizing about. Because, thank God, they really AREN'T a secret militia.

by Anonymousreply 38September 3, 2020 1:57 PM

I wonder when they'll start laying close to 200,000 deaths from a bungled COVID response. Those who died tend to skew older which means they had sons and daughters, grandkids etc. We need to get them angry at Trump about the needless death. Hell that 200K mushrooms to a few million people impacted by COVID19. And a good chunk of that is of voting age.

by Anonymousreply 39September 3, 2020 3:08 PM

I see that after this news, the trolls have switched gears from talking about the protests to Nancy Pelosi's hair!

by Anonymousreply 40September 3, 2020 6:02 PM

The Fox poll of Wisconsin not only gave Biden an 8-point lead but also asked, “Policing and criminal justice: Regardless of how you might vote, who do you trust to do a better job on each of the following — Joe Biden or Donald Trump?” Among likely voters Biden topped Trump by 5 points.

by Anonymousreply 41September 3, 2020 7:36 PM

Quinnipiac Poll

September 3, 2020

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Biden leads Trump by 8 points (52 - 44)

*

*FLORIDA*

Biden leads Trump by 3 points (48-45)

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by Anonymousreply 42September 3, 2020 8:44 PM

[quote] I see that after this news, the trolls have switched gears from talking about the protests to Nancy Pelosi's hair!

At this point, they're desperately throwing shit at the wall to see what will stick, even briefly. I also noticed in the past couple of days that they've been told to push some bullshit about COVID-19 mortality rates being inflated, comorbidity, etc.

by Anonymousreply 43September 3, 2020 9:33 PM

R43, yes, they're very transparent. They alternate troll topics from day to day.

by Anonymousreply 44September 3, 2020 9:46 PM

Monmouth poll

September 3, 2020

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Biden leads Trump by 2 points

Likely Voters

Biden 48%

Trump 46%

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by Anonymousreply 45September 3, 2020 9:53 PM

[quote] I wonder when they'll start laying close to 200,000 deaths from a bungled COVID response. Those who died tend to skew older which means they had sons and daughters, grandkids etc. We need to get them angry at Trump about the needless death. Hell that 200K mushrooms to a few million people impacted by COVID19. And a good chunk of that is of voting age.

Which is why all summer they have been ranting, absolutely rabid, about how Cuomo and Whitmer and the Democratic governors should be prosecuted for nursing home deaths.

The problem for them now is 70% of new infections are in red states so it's much harder to blame the mayors instead of Abbott or DeathSantis or whoever.

by Anonymousreply 46September 3, 2020 9:58 PM

Michael Moore has admitted the Nader vote in 2000 was wrong, apologized and voted for the Democrat ever since. THAT WAS 20 YEARS AGO.

Here he is with Bill Maher, begging Ralph Nader not to run and spoil elections anymore.

GET OFF OF MOORE'S NUTS, TROLLS. He's right about everything.

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by Anonymousreply 47September 4, 2020 8:05 AM

Shirley you mean the trolls and Trumpster Fire have EGGSTEIN on their faces, r21.

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by Anonymousreply 48September 4, 2020 8:07 AM

Biden is up with senoirs because after all the loyalty they have shown to the Repugs, they were quickly and without a second thought thrown under the bus by them.

by Anonymousreply 49September 4, 2020 8:30 AM

Not matter what the polls say. Go out and cast your vote for Joe. Every single one counts. The GOP and Russia try every dirty trick in the book to win.

by Anonymousreply 50September 4, 2020 9:03 AM

Turns out seniors didn't care for the government's "eh, they're old, let them die to save the Dunkin Donuts and Applebee's of the world" COVID policy.

by Anonymousreply 51September 4, 2020 10:58 AM

Poll Troll at r45 et al., we have a poll thread here, but it's kind of a mess, so I don't necessarily blame you if you're avoiding it on purpose:

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by Anonymousreply 52September 4, 2020 10:59 AM

New poll from Texas has Biden up 3% in Texas—Data for Progress poll, which is rated B- on 538. Cornyn is still up 6% over the Democrat, though. But Biden's strong numbers mean at the very least some suburban districts are tilting towards the Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 53September 4, 2020 6:37 PM

Troll

by Anonymousreply 54September 4, 2020 7:18 PM

[quote]Morning Consult’s most recent poll finds that voters trust Biden over Trump on the issue of public safety by a 47 to 39 percent margin, while giving the Democrat an even larger edge on “race relations.”

What happened to your "law and order" surge, Boris?

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by Anonymousreply 55September 4, 2020 7:40 PM

Where is the Pennsylvania lawn sign troll to apologize for the 8% lead Biden has in Pennsylvania?

That's outside the margin of error.

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by Anonymousreply 56September 4, 2020 7:44 PM

Please, R56, the Pennsylvania lawn sign troll doesn't need any stupid polls. He's listening to the plaints of his fellow small business owners in Charleroi, Kutztown, Titusville, and Altoona.

by Anonymousreply 57September 4, 2020 7:56 PM

That "law and order" tactic never made much sense, R55, but what else did they have? "Corrupt Biden" didn't work. Neither did "Sleepy Biden" or "Dementia Biden" or "Radical Socialist Biden."

The whole law and order shtick was dumb because it was essentially Trump running against ... Trump. His ads and whining about "This is Biden's America if he wins" were all really about "This is Trump's America [bold]right now[/bold]." And he never did bother to explain just why reelecting him was going to make things better.

When you throw in the fact that Trump can't do empathy, can't even [italic]fake[/italic] empathy, whereas that comes naturally to Biden, it was always likely to be the case that voters were going to trust Biden more on this, which is exactly what we're seeing. The Trumpers are still out there trying, though.

Seriously, what else can Trump run on? The economy? It's in the toilet and likely to get worse in the coming months. His handling of the pandemic? Yeah, right. His foreign policy accomplishments? He doesn't have any. Trade deals? Some minor tweaking of NAFTA ain't gonna cut it. Tax cuts? Multi-trillion dollar deficits that haven't offered any benefits at all to any of us aren't going to work, either.

And to make matters worse for Trump, the voters have pretty much made up their minds about him. There just isn't room for him to maneuver, nor very many persuadable voters for him to grab. And, even worse than that, Trump hasn't shown any signs that he can, or even has any interest in, steering to the middle. He's doubling down on the racism, on the conspiracy theories, on the radical bullshit that feeds his base but turns off everyone else.

The election isn't in the bag by any means. It's still two months to go and a lot can happen, including external events that are outside Trump's or Biden's control, but, right now, anyway, the odds are looking good for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 58September 4, 2020 7:57 PM

New ABC/Ipsos poll:

“Between the two candidates, more Americans trust Biden over Trump to keep the country safe, 55%-42%; to keep their families safe, 56%-42%...to reduce violence in the country, 59%-39%.”

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by Anonymousreply 59September 4, 2020 11:18 PM

Trump campaign going dark in Arizona, cancels planned TV blitz

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is going off Arizona airwaves after the Labor Day holiday, and may not resume television advertising in the Grand Canyon State until early voting begins in early October.

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by Anonymousreply 60September 5, 2020 11:19 AM

Yikes, but that does not surprise me, Poll Troll, since I saw recent Fox polls that had Kelly up by high double digits over the Republican for Senate, so AZ might seriously be going blue. T-Rump should spend his money to hold TX and GA, let alone PA, WI, MI.

by Anonymousreply 61September 5, 2020 12:09 PM

But they still have a robust ground game in Arizona. They are literally going door to door in the state.

by Anonymousreply 62September 5, 2020 1:05 PM

R62 Troll.

by Anonymousreply 63September 5, 2020 1:15 PM

They're going door to door in a pandemic?

Brilliant.

by Anonymousreply 64September 5, 2020 1:23 PM

Also, isn't it like 120 degrees in Arizona now? Who are these people - teenagers in speedos?

by Anonymousreply 65September 5, 2020 1:24 PM

They are knocking on a million doors per week

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by Anonymousreply 66September 5, 2020 2:08 PM

In case anyone else is as confused as I was about what's happening in Kentucky today, here's some info:

[quote] a myriad of armed groups from various factions are expected to gather in #Louisville amidst the #KentuckyDerby2020.

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by Anonymousreply 67September 5, 2020 2:09 PM

They will be banking on Wisconsin (and MI, PA) late-breaking for Trump and they'll work on it.

The Dems should double and tripple outreach there, and not let up. It's very precarious. A Kenosha reporter on msnbc said an equal or higher number of 2016 non-voters she spoke with now plan to vote for Trump compared to Biden. Also that there was more enthusiasm for Trump's visit to Kenosha than for Biden's, and that Biden didn't come out to the smallish group that waited outside to meet him (for COVID reasons but people may hold this against him).

by Anonymousreply 68September 5, 2020 5:23 PM

^^ Correction: MN, not MI

by Anonymousreply 69September 5, 2020 5:23 PM

Would it help to donate to Congressional races in those precarious states (WI, PA, MN)? That would help bring out Democratic voters who would also vote for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 70September 5, 2020 5:27 PM

Basically these "militia" are the Klan without hoods and with military grade weapons thanks to a greedy firearms industry with political connections. They're also the same assholes that periodically commit mass shootings wherever they can find an unsuspecting group of people gathered together. It's time to enact their worst nightmares and take their fucking guns away once and for all. As for the police, if they really want to stop the protests, they can revise their protocols so they're not slaughtering our citizens in the streets for no good reason.

by Anonymousreply 71September 5, 2020 5:33 PM

Yep

by Anonymousreply 72September 5, 2020 5:57 PM

Boris is warning us of Minnesota poll numbers, so we'd better warn him about dear Trump.

by Anonymousreply 73September 5, 2020 6:31 PM

Nate Silver:

Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.

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by Anonymousreply 74September 5, 2020 11:54 PM

Harry Enten:

Biden's lead over Trump has, since January, been steadier than any prez candidate's in any campaign since 1940. It's only rivaled by Obama 2012, and unlike that campaign, the GOP candidate this year is pretty never leading in any polling this year.

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by Anonymousreply 75September 6, 2020 11:39 PM

I think Harry is too optimistic. He's gonna jinx us!

by Anonymousreply 76September 7, 2020 12:06 AM

I concur. Eight weeks is far too long to be acting cocky about the outcome. View it as a tie election and turn out the vote

by Anonymousreply 77September 7, 2020 12:27 AM

CBS/YouGov

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (50%)

Trump (44%)

[Likely Voters, September 2-4, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 78September 7, 2020 12:30 AM

PollTroll, any thoughts on the "likely voter" models now that we're seeing more and more polls start using them? Does anyone really have a handle on who is likely to vote this year?

by Anonymousreply 79September 7, 2020 4:04 PM

R79, after the Midwestern state polls underestimated support for Trump in 2016, the main change that pollsters have made in 2020 on the Likely Voter screen is to try and do a better job of weighting based on education (eg. non-college whites vs. college whites) since education level is such a large predictor of support.

by Anonymousreply 80September 7, 2020 11:42 PM

Harry Enten:

Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.

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by Anonymousreply 81September 8, 2020 3:12 AM

Trump must die.

by Anonymousreply 82September 8, 2020 3:15 AM

I said it before and I'll say it again: DL fave Harry Enten is gonna jinx us with all his optimistic talk about precedent and probability! Does he realize how many precedents Trump has broken? Yes Biden is ahead and favored to win, but don't let anyone get complacent. Ramp up the D vote and smash the Republicans back to hell.

by Anonymousreply 83September 8, 2020 11:38 AM

Ugh the “complacent Democrats” troll is as exhausting as Michael Moore. Enough.

by Anonymousreply 84September 8, 2020 12:50 PM

I wish Harry Enten was back with Nate Silver and his group. I miss his grumpy weirdness on the podcast/vlog or whatever you call it.

by Anonymousreply 85September 8, 2020 1:10 PM

Harry Enten always seemed to know more than Nate Silver anyway, which I thought was funny, but my guess is Nate didn't appreciate it.

Biden has lead Trump in every poll for over 500 days straight at this point, and no other candidate has ever come close. As of a few days ago, over 93% of all polled likely voters have decided between Biden and Trump with 7% third-party or undecided -- in 2016, at the same two-month mark, nearly 18% of likely voters were third-party or undecided.

Enten is right in that this is a very stable race and the results are basically baked in at this point.

But he's also right that things can change, and we all remember the voter suppression, lost votes, and October surprise of 2016.

As much as some people hate the "complacency" troll, he's also right. Vote like Biden is 5 points behind. Vote early, get everyone you know to vote.

by Anonymousreply 86September 8, 2020 2:38 PM

I don't know how I get a reputation as a complacency troll after two posts where I don't like Harry's emphasis on precedent, but whatever. I would have thought a "complacency troll" is someone who says that Trump is sure to win because Democrats are complacent. I agree with R86, don't assume anything and get out the vote.

Btw no polls have come out yet that really reflect the sentiment over the Atlantic article—I'm hoping that will push Biden's numbers up at least a point or two.

by Anonymousreply 87September 8, 2020 2:46 PM

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Marist College

Biden +9

Biden (53%)

Trump (44%)

[771 Likely Voters, Aug 31-Sep 7, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 88September 9, 2020 11:52 AM

October 24, 2016 headline:

[quote]Hillary Clinton so far ahead in polls that she 'doesn't even think about' Donald Trump anymore

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by Anonymousreply 89September 9, 2020 12:33 PM

That is why she lost. Heinous arrogance

by Anonymousreply 90September 9, 2020 12:38 PM

as pennsylvanian I'm scared

by Anonymousreply 91September 9, 2020 12:42 PM

Another bullshit troll thread. This makes 5003 threads about trump. Enough is enough.

by Anonymousreply 92September 9, 2020 12:47 PM

Why did the general thread for 2020 polls get paywalled? I thought it was relatively civil as far as political threads go.

by Anonymousreply 93September 9, 2020 12:49 PM

Because it was too popular

by Anonymousreply 94September 9, 2020 12:50 PM

Maine Supreme Court rules that ranked choice ballots will proceed in the Presidential race.

If Maine's 2nd Congressional District is close, it could flip to Biden in a run-off. Time will tell.

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by Anonymousreply 95September 9, 2020 9:43 PM

*MINNESOTA*

SurveyUSA

Biden +9

Biden (49%)

Trump (40%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 4-7, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 96September 10, 2020 12:05 AM

Poll Troll. Did you learn nothing from 2016? See R89. Trump voters do not admit their true intentions to anyone, including pollsters.

by Anonymousreply 97September 10, 2020 9:02 AM

That Marist poll in PA is insane, a +9 is astonishing.

Recent polls show a lot of states close that I didn't expect, like GA only +2 for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 98September 10, 2020 12:45 PM

Georgia has been close almost all year

by Anonymousreply 99September 10, 2020 1:32 PM

Georgia has been close almost all year

GA, along with FL, will most certainly cheat & do everything they can do suppress votes, throw out votes, etc. so I don't know that it matters what their polling says one way or the other

by Anonymousreply 100September 10, 2020 1:57 PM

I think we need to just accept that Florida and Georgia are going to cheat, they have multiple times in the recent past and there's no indication they won't this time.

We need to make sure we have a path to winning without FL. I think Biden looks good to win it, but I also don't want to be complacent.

by Anonymousreply 101September 10, 2020 3:15 PM

I moved from LA to FL last year. Even though the local dems did door to door sign up for me to do early mail in ballot. Due to FL history of trashing mail in ballots I will crawl over hot coals in a hazemat suit to go to my polling site on Nov 3 to vote in person against the turd. I will then go online and re verify my vote was recorded and counted.

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by Anonymousreply 102September 10, 2020 3:50 PM

[quote]Trump voters do not admit their true intentions to anyone, including pollsters.

That's been debunked so many times I'm not even going to bother posting the various links. There is just no evidence that there is any significant number of hidden Trump voters, particularly in light of the actual results of the state and local elections since November, 2016.

Yes, I know Trump wasn't on the ballot in those elections but he insisted to his supporters that he was. They turned out in record numbers in some cases. It's just that Democrats turned out in even higher numbers. And those were in off-cycle and mid-terms elections, where Democrats traditionally don't turn out.

Even if you assume that there is a percentage point or two of such hidden voters, that will definitely not be enough to overcome a 9% lead in a given swing state. This is not 2016.

by Anonymousreply 103September 10, 2020 5:23 PM

^Then why was everyone, including Trump himself, so shocked when he won? Hillary had fireworks planned.

And they haven't debated yet. I hope sleepy Joe plans to take some Adderall or something.

by Anonymousreply 104September 10, 2020 6:43 PM

Um, R104, why do you think that [italic]non sequitur[/italic] answer has anything at all to do with what we're talking about?

But thank you for making it clear that you're a rather ignorant troll. See you in November.

by Anonymousreply 105September 10, 2020 7:24 PM

New poll from Monmouth:

Biden leads by 9 points among Registered voters and 7 points among Likely voters.

Trump's statements about the military have not impacted the race, but Biden is seen as more respectful of American troops.

Biden’s positive rating is up from August, while Trump’s has not moved.

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by Anonymousreply 106September 10, 2020 7:56 PM

Sept. 10, 2020

Biden now at 75% chance of winning:

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by Anonymousreply 107September 10, 2020 8:42 PM

VOTE ANYWAY!

Let's give these bitch traitors an ass kicking they will NEVER forget!

by Anonymousreply 108September 10, 2020 10:17 PM

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

09/10/2020

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

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by Anonymousreply 109September 11, 2020 12:33 AM

Dump will start carpet bombing Montreal on Oct 1st.

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by Anonymousreply 110September 11, 2020 12:38 AM

[bold]Salon: Sources close to Rupert Murdoch say he believes Trump will lose[/bold]

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by Anonymousreply 111September 11, 2020 12:42 AM

What R108 said!

What Poll Troll posted at R107 makes me happy, but I’m going under the assumption that this election is a fight to the death.

by Anonymousreply 112September 11, 2020 12:45 AM

If nothing else, we want to make damn sure that there is zero chance that anyone can yell "rigged!" or "stolen!" (Yeah, they will, anyway, but if it's a blowout, everyone will laugh at them.) And we want to make it clear that what we're seeing now is not American, is not the country we want to live in.

by Anonymousreply 113September 11, 2020 1:44 AM

North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

by Anonymousreply 114September 11, 2020 2:33 AM

I read recently that the majority of Republicans say they will vote in person, while the majority of Democrats say they will vote by mail. So having a big lead in vote by mail applications doesn’t necessarily reflect the final number of voters.

Trump keeps pushing his voters to vote in person and saying voting by mail is fraud. So obedient Trump voters will refuse to vote by mail probably. A lot of them will refuse to wear masks to the polls as well. If you have to vote in person, suit up. That’s the time to wear a face shield if you must go in person. Who knows what they will do to scare people away.

And vote early. Early voters are spread out over many days and it’s likely you can get in and out earlier, especially if you go when they open. Troublemakers and crazies tend not to be out the minute they open. And it’s cleaner.

by Anonymousreply 115September 11, 2020 3:00 AM

According to 538, the final polling averages from 538 were:

Trump: 41.8 Clinton: 45.7.

Trump outperformed that by 4.4 points, while Hillary outperformed hers by 2.7%. So maybe there is a tiny case to be made for shy Trump voters, those "undecideds" who broke for Trump at the last minute.

The problem with working "shy Trump" voters into 2016: there are few undecided voters.

Some election day polls from 2016 (% of voters not committed to either major candidate) ABC: 10% Ipsos: 19% YouGov: 13% Gravis: 10% Fox: 8% CBS: 14% NBC: 16% IDB: 16% Selzer: 15%

Average: 13.5%

(Remember, Gary Johnson was also polling quite strongly from 3-7% - it's likely Trump pulled some voters from him)

Recent 2020 polls (not committed to either major candidate)

USC: 5% Monmouth: 7% Morning Consult: 7% Kaiser: 9% YouGov: 5% Ipsos: 12% Rasmussen: 6% Data for Progress: 4%

Average: 7%

So, a few things:

1. If there were "shy Trump" voters in 2016, they weren't telling pollsters that they were going to vote for Clinton. She also outperformed her polls. They were telling pollsters that they were going third party, or were undecided. 2. There are half as many undecided voters this year as there were in 2016. If Trump is going to win, he needs ALL of them. He is behind Biden by a larger percentage than there are undecideds. 3. Third party candidates are marginal this year - I haven't seen any poll above 1%. There is little there for Trump to pull from. 4. Biden is polling above 50%.

We're still two months away, and voters can change, but Biden's lead has been remarkably stable. People are fed up with Trump. The only way he will win is through voting shenanigans, which is why he's fucking with the post office.

by Anonymousreply 116September 11, 2020 3:06 AM

Fixed for formatting:

According to 538, the final polling averages from 538 were:

Trump: 41.8 Clinton: 45.7.

Trump outperformed that by 4.4 points, while Hillary outperformed hers by 2.7%. So maybe there is a tiny case to be made for shy Trump voters, those "undecideds" who broke for Trump at the last minute.

The problem with working "shy Trump" voters into 2016: there are few undecided voters.

Some election day polls from 2016 (% of voters not committed to either major candidate)

ABC: 10%

Ipsos: 19%

YouGov: 13%

Gravis: 10%

Fox: 8%

CBS: 14%

NBC: 16%

IDB: 16%

Selzer: 15%

Average: 13.5%

(Remember, Gary Johnson was also polling quite strongly from 3-7% - it's likely Trump pulled some voters from him)

Recent 2020 polls (not committed to either major candidate)

USC: 5%

Monmouth: 7%

Morning Consult: 7%

Kaiser: 9%

YouGov: 5%

Ipsos: 12%

Rasmussen: 6%

Data for Progress: 4%

Average: 7%

So, a few things:

1. If there were "shy Trump" voters in 2016, they weren't telling pollsters that they were going to vote for Clinton. She also outperformed her polls. They were telling pollsters that they were going third party, or were undecided.

2. There are half as many undecided voters this year as there were in 2016. If Trump is going to win, he needs ALL of them. He is behind Biden by a larger percentage than there are undecideds.

3. Third party candidates are marginal this year - I haven't seen any poll above 1%. There is little there for Trump to pull from.

4. Biden is polling above 50%.

We're still two months away, and voters can change, but Biden's lead has been remarkably stable. People are fed up with Trump. The only way he will win is through voting shenanigans, which is why he's fucking with the post office.

by Anonymousreply 117September 11, 2020 3:10 AM

If Democrats vote early or vote by mail, fatty's goons won't have anyone to intimidate at the polls in election day.

The close we go to election day, the more of his voters die off without voting because they wanted to attend one of his coronafests.

by Anonymousreply 118September 11, 2020 3:17 AM

[quote]the more of his voters die off without voting because they wanted to attend one of his coronafests.

Worked for me!

by Anonymousreply 119September 11, 2020 3:26 AM

I don't think we're dealing with shy voters. Remember in Florida how it looked per exit polls after early voting that HRC would win and there was almost no chance Trump could take the state, but then he did? Shenanigans like that skewed the results, giving Trump a bump in votes that make some people think there were "shy Trumpsters" but there really weren't, just stolen votes.

by Anonymousreply 120September 11, 2020 10:48 AM

Trump keeps pushing his voters to vote in person and saying voting by mail is fraud.

I think the strategy is that fuck up states (you know who you are!) won't count the mail in votes, Dump's supporters vote in person, so Dump prematurely declares himself the winner before ALL votes are counted, casting the country into days & weeks of chaos. And I'm sure on voting day we'll have the usual antics of lines that go on for miles on dem areas while repugs area breeze in & out. And who knows what fuckery Barr has up his sleeve...

Lord, November 3rd cannot come soon enough

by Anonymousreply 121September 11, 2020 11:00 AM

North Carolina, where they've already started accepting ballots, is counting all ballots once a week, not just piled up and counted at end together. This from a North Carolina friend.

by Anonymousreply 122September 12, 2020 2:49 AM

New polls this morning from NYT/Siena:

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*: +5 Biden

*MINNESOTA*: +9 Biden

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*: +3 Biden

*NEVADA*: +4 Biden

[Poll conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 11]

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by Anonymousreply 123September 12, 2020 12:30 PM

Harry Enten:

This is a HUGE difference with 2016. Biden's net favorability is... actually positive. Clinton's was down in the dumps negative.

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by Anonymousreply 124September 12, 2020 11:03 PM

I blame Bernie and his misogynist BernBro army for this, R124.

by Anonymousreply 125September 12, 2020 11:37 PM

CBS/YouGov

September 13, 2020

*ARIZONA* (Biden +3)

*MINNESOTA* (Biden +9)

[Likely Voters, Sep 9-11, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 126September 13, 2020 11:10 PM

Harry Enten:

Biden 2020 vs Clinton 2016 as of September 14:

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by Anonymousreply 127September 14, 2020 11:32 AM

*ARIZONA*

OH Predictive Insights

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

[600 Likely Voters, Sep 8-10, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 128September 14, 2020 11:17 PM

Interesting R127, I knew the Undecided vote was much smaller this year than 2016, but that's an even bigger difference than I'd realized. To go from 18% decided to only 7% is astonishing.

by Anonymousreply 129September 15, 2020 10:33 AM

R129, you nailed it. The smaller number of undecided voters in 2020 is one of the biggest differences the polls are showing compared to 2016.

by Anonymousreply 130September 15, 2020 6:56 PM

*FLORIDA*

MONMOUTH POLL

Biden +5 (Likely Voters)

[Poll conducted Sep 10-13, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 131September 15, 2020 6:58 PM

Meanwhile, today's CNN polls also have good numbers for Biden in Wisconsin and North Carolina:

*WISCONSIN* (Biden +10) Likely Voters

*NORTH CAROLINA* (Biden +3) Likely Voters

[Poll conducted Sep 9-13, 2020]

by Anonymousreply 132September 15, 2020 6:59 PM

No wonder fat Donnie and his kkkrime kkklan are in a panic. The numbers are too big to rig.

That would also explain why most of the GOP Senators running for reelection are dead silent. They're fucked. Bigly.

Let's keep big Mo going right on through November 3rd, people. We can do it. Vote!

by Anonymousreply 133September 15, 2020 8:09 PM

With all the heartache and fuckery this ENTIRE administration has unleashed on the sane and normal people of this country, I have to say at this point, that ANYONE who votes for Trump, or is STILL undecided, does not deserve to live. Fuck them.

by Anonymousreply 134September 15, 2020 8:28 PM

I agree I hate his ignoramous supporters, they're the worst. Fucking racist pieces of shit..I have sent most of my friends packing of they were Dump supporters.

by Anonymousreply 135September 15, 2020 10:17 PM

*VIRGINIA*

Virginia Commonwealth University

Biden +14

Biden (53%)

Trump (39%)

[693 Likely Voters, Aug 28-Sep 7, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 136September 15, 2020 11:23 PM

ABC/WP poll

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (52)

Trump (46)

*

*MINNESOTA*

Biden (57)

Trump (41)

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by Anonymousreply 137September 16, 2020 7:29 AM

For sign watchers, twitter user reporting this sign (I think in OH)

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by Anonymousreply 138September 17, 2020 12:29 AM

Who says lawn signs don't matter (or worse, lawn signs are trashy)? That sign at R138 is awesome.

by Anonymousreply 139September 17, 2020 11:33 AM

Democrats are making the same mistake as they did in 2016 - ignoring the Midwest. Trump has made three appearances in Ohio already. Where's Biden? Where's Harris? He's leading in a state that was supposed to go to Trump, so where is Joe? Hillary ignored the same states and look what happened to her. Also, the Dems haven't reached out to the working poor white people, those who have suffered under Trump and could switch if they thought the other party gave a damn. It's after Labor Day. Where is Joe?

by Anonymousreply 140September 17, 2020 11:52 AM

Biden is going to Duluth. I agree he should be in Midwest, Florida, AZ, and NC every day that is not a debate day.

by Anonymousreply 141September 17, 2020 11:57 AM

Biden is doing a town hall in Scranton, PA tonight on CNN 8 pm EST

by Anonymousreply 142September 17, 2020 12:46 PM

New @Reuters / Ipsos poll shows Joe Biden with 9-point national lead; Donald Trump’s “law and order” message falls short with suburban voters.

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by Anonymousreply 143September 17, 2020 12:48 PM

In two weeks, we will be a month away from the election. The intensity of the final month is about to begin. So many people are currently voting

by Anonymousreply 144September 17, 2020 1:00 PM

Nate Cohn: As an aside, the MULaw and NYT/Siena polls in WI were both R+2 by party identification, and Biden still led by 4/5 points among LVs, and more among LVs. It's just not as easy to judge these polls by party ID or past vote or whatever as you might think!

by Anonymousreply 145September 17, 2020 2:30 PM

Guess fascism didn't work as well as they hoped

McClatchy: Trump ditches ‘law and order’ for the economy in new TV ad blitz

[quote]All seven new TV ads released by the Trump campaign this month to air in battleground states and on national cable — including two new spots unveiled on Thursday — make an economic case for the president over his Democratic opponent. None of the commercials mention the crime and protests that were prevalent in the campaign’s previous messaging and repeated in full-throated speeches at the party’s convention

by Anonymousreply 146September 17, 2020 7:12 PM

[quote]It gathered responses from 1,335 American adults, including 551 Democrats and 523 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 to 5 percentage points.

So that's 28 more Democrats than Rethuglicans, not including Rethug leaning independents who were probably not included, not to mention that 3-5% credibility interval, formerly known as the confidence interval:

[quote]most of the time, most poll statistics are analyzed at a 95% confidence interval. This means roughly, if we theoretically repeated this exact poll 100 times, 95 of the 100 times we would expect the real number to be in the range indicated by the margin of error. HOWEVER, you must also notice 5 out of 100 times our answer could be OUTSIDE the correct range. Combine both of margin of error and confidence intervals- even before humans are entered into the process – and you see there is uncertainty built into the very framework of polling.

All I see here is complacency, complacency, complacency, and that's because so many of you lack basic reading and polling comprehension.

by Anonymousreply 147September 17, 2020 7:25 PM

[quote]Democrats are making the same mistake as they did in 2016 - ignoring the Midwest.

Concern troll is concerned.

No, Democrats aren't. And neither are Harris or Biden, which you would know if you had bothered to look at their schedules and the states they are visiting, either virtually or in reality.

by Anonymousreply 148September 18, 2020 12:15 AM

Siena College/The New York Times

*ARIZONA* (Biden +9)

*NORTH CAROLINA (Biden +1)

*MAINE* (Biden +17)

[Likely Voters, Sep 10-15, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 149September 18, 2020 9:57 AM

You are an early bird PT

by Anonymousreply 150September 18, 2020 10:22 AM

The Midwest really is full of fucking needy idiots (not you guys who vote Dem). It seems unless the Democrats are standing outside their fucking window with a boombox over their heads, many in flyover automatically vote GOP. Amazing how the states that actually pay for everything and "live in a bubble" aren't such delicate flowers that we need a politician coddling us nonstop.

by Anonymousreply 151September 18, 2020 10:34 AM

R151, Latino "voters" are similar, and even when coddled they have the lowest voting rate.

by Anonymousreply 152September 18, 2020 1:45 PM

Latinos are so diverse, and attempts to view them as a block, only offends many of them

by Anonymousreply 153September 18, 2020 2:05 PM

R153 is right: they want to be coddled according to their places of origin and respective races. You have to parse the ethnicity and get granular.

by Anonymousreply 154September 18, 2020 2:22 PM

And appealing to one subset of Latinos could backfire with other Hispanics

by Anonymousreply 155September 18, 2020 2:35 PM

If November's election for president were held today ...

WHITE: Not college grad Trump/Pence 63% Biden/Harris 33%

WHITE: College grad Trump/Pence 31% Biden/Harris 66%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, LV, 9/11-16/20)

by Anonymousreply 156September 18, 2020 8:08 PM

If November's election for president were held today ...

Trump/Pence 43% Biden/Harris 52%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, LV, 9/11-16/20) more:

by Anonymousreply 157September 18, 2020 8:33 PM

As usual, the more educated people are making the better choice.

by Anonymousreply 158September 19, 2020 12:22 AM

Uneducated = racist garbage

by Anonymousreply 159September 19, 2020 12:43 AM

Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice

In surveys before Justice Ginsburg’s death, he led by a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all against President Trump.

Sept. 19, 2020

There’s no way to know exactly what will unfold, but a closer look at recent polls, including new New York Times/Siena College surveys, does provide reason to think that Joseph R. Biden Jr. might have as much — or more — upside on the issue than President Trump.

What voters say on picking the next judge

In Times/Siena polls of Maine, North Carolina and Arizona released Friday, voters preferred Mr. Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent. In each of the three states, Mr. Biden led by just a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all.

Similarly, a Fox News poll last week found that voters nationwide trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump — by seven points — to nominate the next Supreme Court justice. Here again, Mr. Biden led by a slightly wider margin on this issue than he led Mr. Trump.

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by Anonymousreply 160September 19, 2020 11:27 AM

Harry Enten:

We're going to have to see how things look when the dust clears... but Unlike 2016, polling this year suggests Democrats more motivated by Supreme Court than Republicans... I just think it's a totally different ballgame we're looking at.

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by Anonymousreply 161September 19, 2020 10:10 PM

Oops wrong thread^^

by Anonymousreply 162September 21, 2020 5:56 PM

New poll from Morning Consult/Politico:

50% of voters said the winner of the November election should make new Supreme Court pick

37% of voters said President Trump should pick Justice Ginsburg’s replacement regardless of who wins on Nov. 3

12% don't know

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by Anonymousreply 163September 21, 2020 11:12 PM

No sweat, poll troll! It fits just fine.

by Anonymousreply 164September 21, 2020 11:13 PM

*IOWA*

Des Moines Register/Selzer poll shows Biden & Trump Tied

Biden (47%)

Trump (47%)

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by Anonymousreply 165September 22, 2020 11:58 AM

Great Iowa poll. Joe has the money to compete in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Georgia. He needs to make campaign stops there in the last six weeks

by Anonymousreply 166September 22, 2020 12:02 PM

Trump folks are going door to door, personally reaching millions of people In swing states. Biden has nothing like this.

by Anonymousreply 167September 22, 2020 12:07 PM

I hate to say this about DL fave Harry Enten, but his tweets and analyses lately sound too optimistic and rah-rah to me. That said, the elections since 2016 (e.g. the one in 2018) definitely do suggest that there's more motivation and enthusiasm among Democrats and fellow Trump opponents, so that would make sense.

by Anonymousreply 168September 22, 2020 7:30 PM

Do shut up, r167. You're in every thread saying the same bullshit.

Dems ARE out going door to door. My local group is going door to door putting out door hangers.

WE don't want to KILL our voters prior to the election.

by Anonymousreply 169September 22, 2020 8:30 PM

It's scary that current polls show NC and Florida as ties while Pennsylvania is very close. However, Georgia and Iowa are also now shown as close which is amazing.

The whole election is Florida and Pennsylvania. If Trump loses either one, I'm not sure he can win. If he loses both, he's done.

by Anonymousreply 170September 22, 2020 9:34 PM

I live in the Midwest and I'm getting flyers on the door and mailers all the time from Dems, only one Repug mailer so far and that's it.

by Anonymousreply 171September 23, 2020 4:00 AM

New ABC poll has Trump surging ahead in Arizona and Florida

by Anonymousreply 172September 23, 2020 10:55 AM

Harry Enten on the new ABC polls for AZ & FL:

I'll also say these are difficult to square with what we see from ABC/WaPo had in Minnesota & Wisconsin last week... Just another reason to average & to remember the MoE applies to the individual candidates, not the margin. U gotta 2x it approximately.

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by Anonymousreply 173September 23, 2020 11:06 AM

Actor and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is offering grants to nearly 6,000 election officials and county commissioners to reopen polling stations that were shuttered after the U.S. Supreme Court in 2013 weakened a 1965 voter discrimination law.

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by Anonymousreply 174September 24, 2020 12:14 AM

Washington Post:

Internal GOP polling discussed among officials in the White House and the Trump campaign shows that 51 percent of voters in 17 battlegrounds said they trust Biden more than Trump to handle the RBG vacancy, while only 43 percent said they trusted Trump.

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by Anonymousreply 175September 24, 2020 2:57 AM

Those new ABC polls are weird. Typically ABC WaPo is the most reliable poster. I will need to see confirmation from other polls before I set my hair on fire.

by Anonymousreply 176September 24, 2020 6:25 AM

New polls this morning have good numbers for Biden in Iowa, and not bad in Georgia & Texas.

Siena College/New York Times (A+ pollster)

IOWA (Biden +3)

GEORGIA (Tie)

TEXAS (Trump +3)

[Likely Voters, Poll conducted Sep 16-22, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 177September 24, 2020 9:21 AM

If I'm reading it right, that ABC poll is made up of 1/3rd white non-college educated likely voters, which may explain why it's skewing Trump.

That said, the race is going to tighten and we should all be expecting it. This isn't going to be a blowout, I don't think.

by Anonymousreply 178September 24, 2020 1:27 PM

Keep moving to Arizona, people. Looking good.

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by Anonymousreply 179September 24, 2020 1:29 PM

FOX NEWS POLLS

*PENNSYLVANIA*: Biden 51%, Trump 44% [Biden +7]

*OHIO*: Biden 50%, Trump 45% [Biden +5]

*NEVADA*: Biden 52%, Trump 41% [Biden +11]

[Likely Voters, Sep 20-23, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 180September 24, 2020 10:46 PM

The new Fox polls were taken after RBG's death and they show a nice bump for Biden. I expect this trend to continue with little over a month to go before the election.

by Anonymousreply 181September 25, 2020 12:11 AM

I just can't get into polls since 2016. I simply can't. No matter how much hope they give me, I can't accept them.

by Anonymousreply 182September 25, 2020 12:31 AM

I really hate the Emerson poll from today. An A-minus pollster.

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by Anonymousreply 183September 25, 2020 1:26 AM

PollTroll @R180, how accurate was Fox News Poll in 2016 in the battleground states?

by Anonymousreply 184September 25, 2020 1:30 AM

Biden at 50% in Ohio must have the Trump campaign majorly worried right now. And the NYT poll yesterday had Biden up 3 points in Iowa.

If Trump does poorly in the debates, then I think it truly is over for him.

by Anonymousreply 185September 25, 2020 1:58 AM

Maybe some Hillary Clinton thread bumps from 2016 will erase all the bad news for Trump and produce a Trump victory in 2020!

GO, 2016! Everything will go EXACTLY the same because all the factors are EXACTLY the same!

by Anonymousreply 186September 27, 2020 7:20 AM

Biden maintains a clear lead (8 points) over Trump in this morning's poll from Siena/New York Times:

BIDEN (49%)

TRUMP (41%)

[Likely Voters, Sept 22-Sept 24, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 187September 27, 2020 9:45 AM

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Siena College/New York Times [A+ pollster]

Biden +9

Biden (49%)

Trump (40%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 25-27, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 188September 28, 2020 10:49 PM

Autocratic welfare queen!

by Anonymousreply 189September 28, 2020 11:04 PM

*NEBRASKA* [2nd District]

Siena College/New York Times [A+ pollster]

Biden +7

Biden (48%)

Trump (41%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 25-27, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 190September 28, 2020 11:08 PM

Nebraska? This is why I'll just wait until Nov 3/4. I'm tired of polling

by Anonymousreply 191September 28, 2020 11:19 PM

R191, the poll is for Nebraska's 2nd District. Nebraska is one of 2 states that apportions its electoral votes by CD. (Maine is the other one).

In 2008, Obama won Nebraska's 2nd CD. Biden is hoping to do so in 2020.

by Anonymousreply 192September 28, 2020 11:30 PM

PollTroll, I love you dearly and have for years for the stalwart job you do in updating us, but 2016 has made me never trust any polls and think the worst of the millions of Americans who've allowed Republicans to run roughshod over the country.

by Anonymousreply 193September 28, 2020 11:34 PM

I'm no poll troll, but I have to suspect that these numbers from NE-2 and PA don't bode well for T-Rump. What can he do to compensate for coming short in PA, MI, and WI? Are NV and MN still in play?

by Anonymousreply 194September 28, 2020 11:35 PM

It doesn't look good for Trump in either Nevada or Minnesota, although Nevada has really only been polled three times:

Nevada: Biden +1 (Rasmussen), Biden +11 (Fox), and Biden +4 (NYT/Siena)

Minnesota: Biden is currently at +9.4 overall average over Trump, although the last two polls (from the Star Tribune and USA Today) have Biden at +6 and +7. The outlier here is ABC/WP, which has Biden +16.

[quote]but 2016 has made me never trust any polls

The polls in 2016 were generally accurate. The national polls were pretty much dead-on, as were most of the state polls. And even in places where the state polls were off, including those states that Trump won by less than 100,000 votes total, almost all of them were within the margin of error.

Furthermore, we have nearly four years of polling data since. My impression is that it's the Democratic candidates who are more often exceeding their polling numbers than Republican candidates (e.g., Virginia races).

Even if you don't accept the absolute polling number (and there is always a margin of error), you can still look at overall trends. Right now, the trends don't look good for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 195September 28, 2020 11:44 PM

R193, thanks. I understand you being skeptical of the polls after 2016. I'm being extra cautious this year too and not making any predictions. But most pollsters have taken extra steps after 2016 to weight for education and to be more careful with the Midwest polling. But obviously the polls can't predict problems that may occur with voter suppression or with some mail-in ballots not getting counted in time, etc.

R194, Trump is still hoping to flip NV, MN or NH, and there have been some close polls in all 3 states. Odds still favor Biden in NV, MN and NH, but the Trump campaign is hoping to narrow the gap.

by Anonymousreply 196September 28, 2020 11:45 PM

David Plouffe on Pod Save today. Pretty interesting.

by Anonymousreply 197September 28, 2020 11:59 PM

*PENNSYLVANIA*

New ABC News/WaPo poll just released at Midnight

Biden leads Trump by 9 points among Likely Voters

BIDEN (54)

TRUMP (45)

Biden has a 2-1 lead in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 198September 29, 2020 4:07 AM

I hope the campaign doesn’t pull a Mook and keeps visiting PA, Mi, WI, MN. Texas and Ohio are a waste, according to Plouff yesterday on Pod Save.

by Anonymousreply 199September 29, 2020 2:32 PM

Joe is doing a train tour through PA and Ohio - I think

by Anonymousreply 200September 29, 2020 2:55 PM

Pennsylvania: NYT/Siena poll: Biden leads Trump by 9 points among likely voters.

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by Anonymousreply 201September 29, 2020 4:18 PM

Trump has pulled all of his TV ads from Ohio and Iowa for the next week, while Biden is increasing his ad buys in both states. I think Biden is going to win at least one of these states.

by Anonymousreply 202September 29, 2020 4:25 PM

I wish prayer actually had an effect on things. I suddenly had a thought of praying for a Dem victory, but I know there's not really a point. Better to donate.

by Anonymousreply 203September 29, 2020 4:33 PM

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

University of Massachusetts Lowell

Biden +8

Biden (52%)

Trump (44%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 17-25, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 204September 29, 2020 7:14 PM

**Cook Political Report**

Iowa & Ohio move from Lean R to Toss Up

September 29, 2020

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by Anonymousreply 205September 29, 2020 8:03 PM

Quinnipiac:

GEORGIA Biden 50% (+3)

Trump 47%

GA Senate:

Ossoff (D) 49% (+1)

Perdue (R-inc) 48%

by Anonymousreply 206September 29, 2020 9:36 PM

Dave Wasserman:

Entering October, I've rarely seen this level of consistency in district-level polling by both parties: Trump is running 5%-10% behind his '16 margins, w/ the exception of heavily Latino districts.

In heavily suburban districts, his lag is sometimes >10%.

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by Anonymousreply 207October 2, 2020 3:26 AM

*ARIZONA*

Suffolk University

Biden +4

Biden 50%

Trump 46%

[Likely Voters, Sep 26-30, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 208October 2, 2020 11:50 PM

NTY/Siena polls of Pennsylvania and Florida, taking post-debate but pre-COVID-diagnosis.

Pennsylvania: Biden +7 (49 to 42)

Florida: +5 (47 to 42)

[quote]By overwhelming margins, voters in Pennsylvania and Florida were repelled by President Trump’s conduct in the first general election debate, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, as Joseph R. Biden Jr. maintained a lead in the two largest battleground states.

On the debate: 21% of voters say Trump won; 65% of them disapprove of his conduct; 48% of them "support Trump less after."

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by Anonymousreply 209October 3, 2020 5:12 PM

Dave Wasserman:

We're now a month out from Election Day, and if 2020 is a free and fair election, President Trump is on track to lose.

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by Anonymousreply 210October 3, 2020 11:23 PM

The NBC/WSJ poll has

Biden 53%

Trump 39%

Wow.

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by Anonymousreply 211October 4, 2020 1:54 PM

Cross tabs show Biden erased Trump’s 13 pt lead with men 50+ to +1% FOR Biden, a 14pt swing.

Biden leading suburban women 58% to 33%

Biden leading Seniors 62% to 35%

If this holds, it’s a Biden landslide.

by Anonymousreply 212October 4, 2020 1:55 PM

Great news, R212, but I fear the average stupid American will think we need to give Trump a second chance, a chance to redeem himself, and vote for his reelection.

Will someone please tell me I'm being irrational?

by Anonymousreply 213October 4, 2020 2:04 PM

You're being irrational. It's definitely not in the bag, a lot can happen in a month, and nobody is opening the champagne yet, but that particular line of argument doesn't really work. Trump is too well known and too widely disliked.

by Anonymousreply 214October 4, 2020 3:57 PM

Reuters/Ipsos poll:

"65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that 'if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected'"

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by Anonymousreply 215October 5, 2020 12:21 AM

Yahoo News/YouGov: Most registered voters say President Trump has not behaved appropriately to prevent COVID-19:

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by Anonymousreply 216October 5, 2020 12:25 AM

Nate Cohn:

If the polls were exactly as wrong as they were over the final three weeks in 2016, Biden would still win with over 300 electoral votes

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by Anonymousreply 217October 6, 2020 11:30 PM

I wish it were over.

by Anonymousreply 218October 6, 2020 11:32 PM

The early voting lines in Ohio are CRAZY!

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by Anonymousreply 219October 6, 2020 11:34 PM

Another county in Ohio today.

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by Anonymousreply 220October 6, 2020 11:34 PM

Trump’s stunt made the focus Covid again when it was fading and becoming less important.

Where I am we’ve had 6 cases total so far and zero deaths. The B and Bs and hotels that were taken over as quarantine units were never used and have been handed back and were open for normal business at the end of August. People were talking about recovery, the economy and protests until his alleged diagnosis now it’s the only thing everyone is talking about. I’m in the process of buying a car and the dealership put up plexiglas today, today!! after all this time. So Trump may have inadvertently handed over the election with his Covid stunt.

by Anonymousreply 221October 6, 2020 11:37 PM

Watch trump come down hard on Cuomo and Diblasio because they need to close down the Jewish areas in Brooklyn because they are spreading the virus

by Anonymousreply 222October 6, 2020 11:38 PM

Is R219/220 a good thing for Dems or bad? I mean it's Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 223October 7, 2020 1:57 AM

It depends on the country, R223, which they don't provide. Generally, though, I would expect early voting to be higher in the cities, where more Democrats reside, and therefore this is likely a good thing for Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 224October 7, 2020 1:58 AM

Tim Alberta (POLITICO):

I can’t overstate the significance of this. Two red-state Rs, on consecutive days, telling me they’re seeing poll numbers they never thought were possible.

Their shared conclusion: Trump’s standing w/ white college+ women threatens to tank the entire party down-ballot on Nov 3.

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by Anonymousreply 225October 7, 2020 3:25 AM

The president did an absolutely spectacular job! I will be voting for him with gusto, and if invited to the White House will personally kiss his ass! If he loses, well I'm just gonna have to fall off the wagon!

by Anonymousreply 226October 7, 2020 3:42 AM

I think people are scared of waiting to vote because they are afraid of voter suppression, violence and intimidation and polls etc so it would favor the Dems a bit. I’d like to think the shenanigans of the governor of Texas will motivate people to vote. Maybe I’m just a stubborn fucker but if see a dickhead shutting all but one drop off box in my huge county I will drag my nuts 500 miles over broken glass to spite him.

If Biden/Harris is a landslide I think a contributing factor will be because your average decent person (and they do still exist) is just sick of the stress and anxiety that 45 causes day after day. I’m not sure any of us outside his base has the nervous system to go through another 4 years. I don’t think many Americans, being honest, can say these last 4 years have been their most contented and peaceful. It’s been worse than the Iraq war imo because it’s 24/7 on every device now. The only people who thrived were his base, who were angry, paranoid, checking under the bed for socialists and stockpiling weapons long before he ran, and people who care only about their stock portfolios and have so much money that nothing can bother them where they live.

by Anonymousreply 227October 7, 2020 4:14 AM

[quote] Two red-state Rs, on consecutive days, telling me they’re seeing poll numbers they never thought were possible.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin of MI said the exact same thing last week about her internal polling numbers.

They're seeing the same thing in Texas. Internal polling is showing Biden leading in Plano, TX even though Romney won the area by 30 points in 2012.

by Anonymousreply 228October 7, 2020 4:40 AM

My vote is going to Trump. He does so well with the economy! Who needs to live when your 401k is doing better than ever?

by Anonymousreply 229October 7, 2020 4:54 AM

I hate that some of you are giving me hope with the polls because I know I'll be let down.

by Anonymousreply 230October 7, 2020 5:10 AM

Actually, it's looks like Trump's polling number are falling off a cliff following his covid diagnosis.

by Anonymousreply 231October 7, 2020 5:13 AM

Quinnipiac:

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%

IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%

IOWA SENATE: Greenfield 50%, Ernst 45%

Quinnipiac notes that this is the fist poll where Biden has a lead in Iowa.

by Anonymousreply 232October 7, 2020 8:52 PM

*Fox News*:

National poll: Likely voters

Biden (53%)

Trump (43%)

[Poll conducted Oct 3-6, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 233October 7, 2020 11:32 PM

New York Times/Siena College

NEVADA (+ 6 BIDEN)

OHIO (+1 BIDEN)

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by Anonymousreply 234October 7, 2020 11:42 PM

*WISCONSIN*

Marquette poll

Biden +5

(46%) Biden

(41%) Trump

4% (Libertarian Jo Jorgensen)

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by Anonymousreply 235October 7, 2020 11:47 PM

Another reason to avoid Wisconsin, bloody libertarians now.

by Anonymousreply 236October 8, 2020 12:54 AM

Nate Cohn:

One place where the state polls seemed to have improved for Biden as of late is Florida, where Biden's been up by about 5 points on average over the last two weeks.

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by Anonymousreply 237October 9, 2020 12:30 AM

Them geezers don't take so kindly to assholes trying to kill them off in a most unpleasant manner.

by Anonymousreply 238October 9, 2020 5:04 AM
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