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No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top issue: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s attempt to make civil unrest a central theme of his re-election campaign has yet to boost his political standing, as most Americans do not see crime as a major problem confronting the nation and a majority remain sympathetic to anti-racism protests, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The Aug. 31-Sept. 1 national opinion poll showed that 40% of registered voters support Trump, a Republican, compared with 47% who said they will vote for his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Biden’s lead is largely unchanged over the past three weeks during which both parties held conventions to nominate their candidates Trump and Biden for the presidency.

Trailing Biden in most national opinion polls since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus this year, Trump has sought to change the subject from a pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 Americans, blaming Black Lives Matters protesters for violence in the cities and accusing Biden of being weak on crime.

But the poll showed the majority — 78% — remain “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the coronavirus. Nearly 60% said Trump is at least partly responsible for the protracted school and business closures due to the virus, as well as for the high number of coronavirus cases in the United States. More than 6 million Americans have been infected with the virus, more people than in any other country.

By contrast, most Americans do not see crime as a major priority and do not think it is increasing in their communities, the poll showed.

Only about 8% of American adults listed crime as a top priority for the country, compared with 30% who said it was the economy or jobs, and 16% who said it was the healthcare system.

And 62% of registered voters, including 62% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans, said crime was not increasing in their communities

According to the poll, 53% of American adults said they remain sympathetic to people out protesting against racial inequality, nearly unchanged from 52% in a similar poll that ran in late July.

While support for the protesters has declined overall since the immediate aftermath of the police killing in May of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which sparked a national conversation on race, the poll showed more than half of suburban Americans and more than half of undecided registered voters are still sympathetic to them.

Trump and his Republican allies tried to re-focus the country’s attention on crime in America during their convention last week, as new confrontations erupted following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a crucial battleground that will help decide November’s election.

Trump also has attempted to stoke fears, especially among suburban white voters, about crime-ridden cities and falsely asserted that Biden would “defund the police.” Biden has rejected that position.

“No one will be safe in Biden’s America,” Trump said last week at the Republican national convention.

Biden has pushed back, accusing Trump of stirring up racist fears in the U.S. in hopes of reviving his campaign.

“The simple truth is Donald Trump failed to protect America. So now he’s trying to scare America,” Biden said in Pittsburgh this week.

The Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,335 American adults, including 551 Democrats and 523 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 to 5 percentage points.

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by Anonymousreply 161Last Saturday at 2:10 PM

Poor internet trolls. All of that hard work and for nothing! They might as well fire you!

by Anonymousreply 109/02/2020

WOMP, WOMP, Americans don't want to be Nazis.

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by Anonymousreply 209/02/2020

I'm sure one of our persistent right wing trolls will immediately come up with a poll stating that Trump is gaining some ground among the Polish/German over-60 population of Peoria. Gotta keep those FUD ("fear, uncertainty, doom") trolling fires burning.

by Anonymousreply 309/02/2020

Is no true! Vatabout looting! Vatabout protests!

by Anonymousreply 409/02/2020

Trump invented COVID-19 cure. I concerned since he may win the Nobel Prize for medicining.

by Anonymousreply 509/02/2020

The media are really starting to panic. Lol.

by Anonymousreply 609/02/2020

You think Reuters is fake news R6?

by Anonymousreply 709/02/2020

If you're Retardo, a right-wing troll, anything truthful is fake news.

by Anonymousreply 809/02/2020

But ... but ... look! Nancy got her hair done!

by Anonymousreply 909/02/2020

Melania, Ivanka and Jared all used private email accounts to conduct government business.

LOCK!

THEM!

UP!

by Anonymousreply 1009/02/2020

There's a lot of new polling out today.

Some of it is good for Trump (eg. the new Monmouth poll showing Biden only ahead by a few points in PA) and some of it is good for Biden (such as the new Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and YouGov/Economist polls.)

There's also a Selzer poll expected out today.

by Anonymousreply 1109/02/2020

Quinnipiac Poll

September 2, 2020

Likely Voters

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

Independents back Biden 50 - 40 percent

Nearly 6 In 10 Say The Country Is Worse Off Than It Was In 2016

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by Anonymousreply 1209/02/2020

R12, thanks for that.

by Anonymousreply 1309/02/2020

Lots of good (for Biden) recent polls coming out today, but Biden will need to be far ahead to beat all the voter suppression of the Republicans. Get out the vote!

by Anonymousreply 1409/02/2020

Fox News will apparently have some state polls out tonight.

by Anonymousreply 1509/02/2020

Good

by Anonymousreply 1609/02/2020

The Fox state polls have Biden up 9 in AZ (at 49%), 8 in WI (at 50%), and 4 in NC (at 50%).

by Anonymousreply 1709/02/2020

R17, wow, and those are FOX polls.

by Anonymousreply 1809/02/2020

The Poll Troll can correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, Fox Polls don't have the Republican bias that Fox News has.

by Anonymousreply 1909/02/2020

R19, that's correct. The Fox pollster has a good reputation and is actually run by 2 polling companies -- a Democratic pollster & a Republican pollster.

by Anonymousreply 2009/02/2020

The trolls have egg on their face.

by Anonymousreply 2109/02/2020

The new Quinnipiac poll released today has Biden leading Trump by 10 points. But the real takeaway from the poll is that Trump's lead among whites without a college degree has dropped by 13 points compared to 2016. That's the whole ballgame right there if that number holds.

by Anonymousreply 2209/02/2020

Trump's convention flopped.

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by Anonymousreply 2309/02/2020

Dave Wasserman:

Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere.

Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this.

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by Anonymousreply 2409/02/2020

Michael Moore warns otherwise. 2016 Redux.

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by Anonymousreply 2509/02/2020

Michael Moore is an attention-whore who was wrong in 2012.

by Anonymousreply 2609/02/2020

Michael Moore is Lady G’s secret shame! He’s a closet republican and no longer cares about the people he claims he’s fighting for, aa long as he has something to rail against.

by Anonymousreply 2709/02/2020

Biden then needs to focus on slamming Trump on covid, preventing election fraud, and the big bear in the room, climate change.

He needs to capture the news cycle. Right now the media is driven by Trump with his antics. That must be wrested away from him and the GOP.

Get cracking, DP!

by Anonymousreply 2809/02/2020

Just remember Michael Moore voted for Ralph Nader in 2000.

I will never forget that and neither should any of you.

by Anonymousreply 2909/02/2020

Ralph Nader was a great candidate. Gore lost because he distanced himself from bill at the half assed advice of the neo liberal DNC.

by Anonymousreply 3009/02/2020

Michael Moore serves the great purpose to light a fire under the Liberal voters who think Biden has it in the bag. Don't let these poll numbers, favoring Biden, give you a false sense of security. Every single vote for Biden counts.

Do the research about mail-in voting or where the next drop box is where you can drop off your absentee ballot. Let your vote be one of many which show that Trump is pure scum and needs to be fired in an epic landslide.

by Anonymousreply 3109/02/2020

Voters are doing their part promoting mail ins. But what is the party they are voting for doing about preventing the destruction of the postal system that is going to be delivering these votes?

I know there is no answer. Its a rhetorical question.

by Anonymousreply 3209/03/2020

"... and the big bear in the room, climate change."

He'll lose voters if he talks about "carbon footprints" and eliminating coal production. Hillbillies see that as like getting socks for Christmas. They live for the moment.

by Anonymousreply 3309/03/2020

Michael Moore's warning was from last week, before these latest state and national polls were conducted showing Biden maintaining his lead. I don't know if Moore would modify his opinion, but in any case I like how his warnings keep us alert. Trump's base IS motivated—but so is Biden's and there are more of us, so let's keep it up.

by Anonymousreply 3409/03/2020

[quote]Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere.

Perhaps that's motivated by the fear of dying from the virus.

by Anonymousreply 3509/03/2020

PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46% Biden 46%

@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 8/25-27

by Anonymousreply 3609/03/2020

[quote]Fox News will apparently have some state polls out tonight.

Trump twitter explosion incoming.

by Anonymousreply 3709/03/2020

It really is shocking to see how deeply the Ku Klux Klan mindset still has a hold on so many Americans. But no, I don't think that putting on his pointy hood and holding up a noose is a winning strategy for Orange Nero. I can't be the only person who looks at that little cracker who killed those people in Kenosha and think, just another delusional mass shooter. Not the Birth of a Nation/Helter Skelter/Boogaloo all the assbearded basement dwellers have been fantasizing about. Because, thank God, they really AREN'T a secret militia.

by Anonymousreply 3809/03/2020

I wonder when they'll start laying close to 200,000 deaths from a bungled COVID response. Those who died tend to skew older which means they had sons and daughters, grandkids etc. We need to get them angry at Trump about the needless death. Hell that 200K mushrooms to a few million people impacted by COVID19. And a good chunk of that is of voting age.

by Anonymousreply 3909/03/2020

I see that after this news, the trolls have switched gears from talking about the protests to Nancy Pelosi's hair!

by Anonymousreply 4009/03/2020

The Fox poll of Wisconsin not only gave Biden an 8-point lead but also asked, “Policing and criminal justice: Regardless of how you might vote, who do you trust to do a better job on each of the following — Joe Biden or Donald Trump?” Among likely voters Biden topped Trump by 5 points.

by Anonymousreply 4109/03/2020

Quinnipiac Poll

September 3, 2020

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Biden leads Trump by 8 points (52 - 44)

*

*FLORIDA*

Biden leads Trump by 3 points (48-45)

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by Anonymousreply 4209/03/2020

[quote] I see that after this news, the trolls have switched gears from talking about the protests to Nancy Pelosi's hair!

At this point, they're desperately throwing shit at the wall to see what will stick, even briefly. I also noticed in the past couple of days that they've been told to push some bullshit about COVID-19 mortality rates being inflated, comorbidity, etc.

by Anonymousreply 4309/03/2020

R43, yes, they're very transparent. They alternate troll topics from day to day.

by Anonymousreply 4409/03/2020

Monmouth poll

September 3, 2020

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Biden leads Trump by 2 points

Likely Voters

Biden 48%

Trump 46%

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by Anonymousreply 4509/03/2020

[quote] I wonder when they'll start laying close to 200,000 deaths from a bungled COVID response. Those who died tend to skew older which means they had sons and daughters, grandkids etc. We need to get them angry at Trump about the needless death. Hell that 200K mushrooms to a few million people impacted by COVID19. And a good chunk of that is of voting age.

Which is why all summer they have been ranting, absolutely rabid, about how Cuomo and Whitmer and the Democratic governors should be prosecuted for nursing home deaths.

The problem for them now is 70% of new infections are in red states so it's much harder to blame the mayors instead of Abbott or DeathSantis or whoever.

by Anonymousreply 4609/03/2020

Michael Moore has admitted the Nader vote in 2000 was wrong, apologized and voted for the Democrat ever since. THAT WAS 20 YEARS AGO.

Here he is with Bill Maher, begging Ralph Nader not to run and spoil elections anymore.

GET OFF OF MOORE'S NUTS, TROLLS. He's right about everything.

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by Anonymousreply 4709/04/2020

Shirley you mean the trolls and Trumpster Fire have EGGSTEIN on their faces, r21.

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by Anonymousreply 4809/04/2020

Biden is up with senoirs because after all the loyalty they have shown to the Repugs, they were quickly and without a second thought thrown under the bus by them.

by Anonymousreply 4909/04/2020

Not matter what the polls say. Go out and cast your vote for Joe. Every single one counts. The GOP and Russia try every dirty trick in the book to win.

by Anonymousreply 5009/04/2020

Turns out seniors didn't care for the government's "eh, they're old, let them die to save the Dunkin Donuts and Applebee's of the world" COVID policy.

by Anonymousreply 5109/04/2020

Poll Troll at r45 et al., we have a poll thread here, but it's kind of a mess, so I don't necessarily blame you if you're avoiding it on purpose:

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by Anonymousreply 5209/04/2020

New poll from Texas has Biden up 3% in Texas—Data for Progress poll, which is rated B- on 538. Cornyn is still up 6% over the Democrat, though. But Biden's strong numbers mean at the very least some suburban districts are tilting towards the Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 5309/04/2020

Troll

by Anonymousreply 5409/04/2020

[quote]Morning Consult’s most recent poll finds that voters trust Biden over Trump on the issue of public safety by a 47 to 39 percent margin, while giving the Democrat an even larger edge on “race relations.”

What happened to your "law and order" surge, Boris?

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by Anonymousreply 5509/04/2020

Where is the Pennsylvania lawn sign troll to apologize for the 8% lead Biden has in Pennsylvania?

That's outside the margin of error.

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by Anonymousreply 5609/04/2020

Please, R56, the Pennsylvania lawn sign troll doesn't need any stupid polls. He's listening to the plaints of his fellow small business owners in Charleroi, Kutztown, Titusville, and Altoona.

by Anonymousreply 5709/04/2020

That "law and order" tactic never made much sense, R55, but what else did they have? "Corrupt Biden" didn't work. Neither did "Sleepy Biden" or "Dementia Biden" or "Radical Socialist Biden."

The whole law and order shtick was dumb because it was essentially Trump running against ... Trump. His ads and whining about "This is Biden's America if he wins" were all really about "This is Trump's America [bold]right now[/bold]." And he never did bother to explain just why reelecting him was going to make things better.

When you throw in the fact that Trump can't do empathy, can't even [italic]fake[/italic] empathy, whereas that comes naturally to Biden, it was always likely to be the case that voters were going to trust Biden more on this, which is exactly what we're seeing. The Trumpers are still out there trying, though.

Seriously, what else can Trump run on? The economy? It's in the toilet and likely to get worse in the coming months. His handling of the pandemic? Yeah, right. His foreign policy accomplishments? He doesn't have any. Trade deals? Some minor tweaking of NAFTA ain't gonna cut it. Tax cuts? Multi-trillion dollar deficits that haven't offered any benefits at all to any of us aren't going to work, either.

And to make matters worse for Trump, the voters have pretty much made up their minds about him. There just isn't room for him to maneuver, nor very many persuadable voters for him to grab. And, even worse than that, Trump hasn't shown any signs that he can, or even has any interest in, steering to the middle. He's doubling down on the racism, on the conspiracy theories, on the radical bullshit that feeds his base but turns off everyone else.

The election isn't in the bag by any means. It's still two months to go and a lot can happen, including external events that are outside Trump's or Biden's control, but, right now, anyway, the odds are looking good for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 5809/04/2020

New ABC/Ipsos poll:

“Between the two candidates, more Americans trust Biden over Trump to keep the country safe, 55%-42%; to keep their families safe, 56%-42%...to reduce violence in the country, 59%-39%.”

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by Anonymousreply 5909/04/2020

Trump campaign going dark in Arizona, cancels planned TV blitz

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is going off Arizona airwaves after the Labor Day holiday, and may not resume television advertising in the Grand Canyon State until early voting begins in early October.

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by Anonymousreply 6009/05/2020

Yikes, but that does not surprise me, Poll Troll, since I saw recent Fox polls that had Kelly up by high double digits over the Republican for Senate, so AZ might seriously be going blue. T-Rump should spend his money to hold TX and GA, let alone PA, WI, MI.

by Anonymousreply 6109/05/2020

But they still have a robust ground game in Arizona. They are literally going door to door in the state.

by Anonymousreply 6209/05/2020

R62 Troll.

by Anonymousreply 6309/05/2020

They're going door to door in a pandemic?

Brilliant.

by Anonymousreply 6409/05/2020

Also, isn't it like 120 degrees in Arizona now? Who are these people - teenagers in speedos?

by Anonymousreply 6509/05/2020

They are knocking on a million doors per week

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by Anonymousreply 6609/05/2020

In case anyone else is as confused as I was about what's happening in Kentucky today, here's some info:

[quote] a myriad of armed groups from various factions are expected to gather in #Louisville amidst the #KentuckyDerby2020.

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by Anonymousreply 6709/05/2020

They will be banking on Wisconsin (and MI, PA) late-breaking for Trump and they'll work on it.

The Dems should double and tripple outreach there, and not let up. It's very precarious. A Kenosha reporter on msnbc said an equal or higher number of 2016 non-voters she spoke with now plan to vote for Trump compared to Biden. Also that there was more enthusiasm for Trump's visit to Kenosha than for Biden's, and that Biden didn't come out to the smallish group that waited outside to meet him (for COVID reasons but people may hold this against him).

by Anonymousreply 6809/05/2020

^^ Correction: MN, not MI

by Anonymousreply 6909/05/2020

Would it help to donate to Congressional races in those precarious states (WI, PA, MN)? That would help bring out Democratic voters who would also vote for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 7009/05/2020

Basically these "militia" are the Klan without hoods and with military grade weapons thanks to a greedy firearms industry with political connections. They're also the same assholes that periodically commit mass shootings wherever they can find an unsuspecting group of people gathered together. It's time to enact their worst nightmares and take their fucking guns away once and for all. As for the police, if they really want to stop the protests, they can revise their protocols so they're not slaughtering our citizens in the streets for no good reason.

by Anonymousreply 7109/05/2020

Yep

by Anonymousreply 7209/05/2020

Boris is warning us of Minnesota poll numbers, so we'd better warn him about dear Trump.

by Anonymousreply 7309/05/2020

Nate Silver:

Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.

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by Anonymousreply 7409/05/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden's lead over Trump has, since January, been steadier than any prez candidate's in any campaign since 1940. It's only rivaled by Obama 2012, and unlike that campaign, the GOP candidate this year is pretty never leading in any polling this year.

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by Anonymousreply 7509/06/2020

I think Harry is too optimistic. He's gonna jinx us!

by Anonymousreply 7609/06/2020

I concur. Eight weeks is far too long to be acting cocky about the outcome. View it as a tie election and turn out the vote

by Anonymousreply 7709/06/2020

CBS/YouGov

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (50%)

Trump (44%)

[Likely Voters, September 2-4, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 7809/06/2020

PollTroll, any thoughts on the "likely voter" models now that we're seeing more and more polls start using them? Does anyone really have a handle on who is likely to vote this year?

by Anonymousreply 7909/07/2020

R79, after the Midwestern state polls underestimated support for Trump in 2016, the main change that pollsters have made in 2020 on the Likely Voter screen is to try and do a better job of weighting based on education (eg. non-college whites vs. college whites) since education level is such a large predictor of support.

by Anonymousreply 8009/07/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.

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by Anonymousreply 8109/07/2020

Trump must die.

by Anonymousreply 8209/07/2020

I said it before and I'll say it again: DL fave Harry Enten is gonna jinx us with all his optimistic talk about precedent and probability! Does he realize how many precedents Trump has broken? Yes Biden is ahead and favored to win, but don't let anyone get complacent. Ramp up the D vote and smash the Republicans back to hell.

by Anonymousreply 8309/08/2020

Ugh the “complacent Democrats” troll is as exhausting as Michael Moore. Enough.

by Anonymousreply 8409/08/2020

I wish Harry Enten was back with Nate Silver and his group. I miss his grumpy weirdness on the podcast/vlog or whatever you call it.

by Anonymousreply 8509/08/2020

Harry Enten always seemed to know more than Nate Silver anyway, which I thought was funny, but my guess is Nate didn't appreciate it.

Biden has lead Trump in every poll for over 500 days straight at this point, and no other candidate has ever come close. As of a few days ago, over 93% of all polled likely voters have decided between Biden and Trump with 7% third-party or undecided -- in 2016, at the same two-month mark, nearly 18% of likely voters were third-party or undecided.

Enten is right in that this is a very stable race and the results are basically baked in at this point.

But he's also right that things can change, and we all remember the voter suppression, lost votes, and October surprise of 2016.

As much as some people hate the "complacency" troll, he's also right. Vote like Biden is 5 points behind. Vote early, get everyone you know to vote.

by Anonymousreply 8609/08/2020

I don't know how I get a reputation as a complacency troll after two posts where I don't like Harry's emphasis on precedent, but whatever. I would have thought a "complacency troll" is someone who says that Trump is sure to win because Democrats are complacent. I agree with R86, don't assume anything and get out the vote.

Btw no polls have come out yet that really reflect the sentiment over the Atlantic article—I'm hoping that will push Biden's numbers up at least a point or two.

by Anonymousreply 8709/08/2020

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Marist College

Biden +9

Biden (53%)

Trump (44%)

[771 Likely Voters, Aug 31-Sep 7, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 8809/09/2020

October 24, 2016 headline:

[quote]Hillary Clinton so far ahead in polls that she 'doesn't even think about' Donald Trump anymore

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by Anonymousreply 8909/09/2020

That is why she lost. Heinous arrogance

by Anonymousreply 9009/09/2020

as pennsylvanian I'm scared

by Anonymousreply 9109/09/2020

Another bullshit troll thread. This makes 5003 threads about trump. Enough is enough.

by Anonymousreply 9209/09/2020

Why did the general thread for 2020 polls get paywalled? I thought it was relatively civil as far as political threads go.

by Anonymousreply 9309/09/2020

Because it was too popular

by Anonymousreply 9409/09/2020

Maine Supreme Court rules that ranked choice ballots will proceed in the Presidential race.

If Maine's 2nd Congressional District is close, it could flip to Biden in a run-off. Time will tell.

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by Anonymousreply 9509/09/2020

*MINNESOTA*

SurveyUSA

Biden +9

Biden (49%)

Trump (40%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 4-7, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 9609/09/2020

Poll Troll. Did you learn nothing from 2016? See R89. Trump voters do not admit their true intentions to anyone, including pollsters.

by Anonymousreply 9709/10/2020

That Marist poll in PA is insane, a +9 is astonishing.

Recent polls show a lot of states close that I didn't expect, like GA only +2 for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 9809/10/2020

Georgia has been close almost all year

by Anonymousreply 9909/10/2020

Georgia has been close almost all year

GA, along with FL, will most certainly cheat & do everything they can do suppress votes, throw out votes, etc. so I don't know that it matters what their polling says one way or the other

by Anonymousreply 10009/10/2020

I think we need to just accept that Florida and Georgia are going to cheat, they have multiple times in the recent past and there's no indication they won't this time.

We need to make sure we have a path to winning without FL. I think Biden looks good to win it, but I also don't want to be complacent.

by Anonymousreply 10109/10/2020

I moved from LA to FL last year. Even though the local dems did door to door sign up for me to do early mail in ballot. Due to FL history of trashing mail in ballots I will crawl over hot coals in a hazemat suit to go to my polling site on Nov 3 to vote in person against the turd. I will then go online and re verify my vote was recorded and counted.

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by Anonymousreply 10209/10/2020

[quote]Trump voters do not admit their true intentions to anyone, including pollsters.

That's been debunked so many times I'm not even going to bother posting the various links. There is just no evidence that there is any significant number of hidden Trump voters, particularly in light of the actual results of the state and local elections since November, 2016.

Yes, I know Trump wasn't on the ballot in those elections but he insisted to his supporters that he was. They turned out in record numbers in some cases. It's just that Democrats turned out in even higher numbers. And those were in off-cycle and mid-terms elections, where Democrats traditionally don't turn out.

Even if you assume that there is a percentage point or two of such hidden voters, that will definitely not be enough to overcome a 9% lead in a given swing state. This is not 2016.

by Anonymousreply 10309/10/2020

^Then why was everyone, including Trump himself, so shocked when he won? Hillary had fireworks planned.

And they haven't debated yet. I hope sleepy Joe plans to take some Adderall or something.

by Anonymousreply 10409/10/2020

Um, R104, why do you think that [italic]non sequitur[/italic] answer has anything at all to do with what we're talking about?

But thank you for making it clear that you're a rather ignorant troll. See you in November.

by Anonymousreply 10509/10/2020

New poll from Monmouth:

Biden leads by 9 points among Registered voters and 7 points among Likely voters.

Trump's statements about the military have not impacted the race, but Biden is seen as more respectful of American troops.

Biden’s positive rating is up from August, while Trump’s has not moved.

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by Anonymousreply 10609/10/2020

Sept. 10, 2020

Biden now at 75% chance of winning:

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by Anonymousreply 10709/10/2020

VOTE ANYWAY!

Let's give these bitch traitors an ass kicking they will NEVER forget!

by Anonymousreply 10809/10/2020

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

09/10/2020

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

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by Anonymousreply 10909/10/2020

Dump will start carpet bombing Montreal on Oct 1st.

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by Anonymousreply 11009/10/2020

[bold]Salon: Sources close to Rupert Murdoch say he believes Trump will lose[/bold]

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by Anonymousreply 11109/10/2020

What R108 said!

What Poll Troll posted at R107 makes me happy, but I’m going under the assumption that this election is a fight to the death.

by Anonymousreply 11209/10/2020

If nothing else, we want to make damn sure that there is zero chance that anyone can yell "rigged!" or "stolen!" (Yeah, they will, anyway, but if it's a blowout, everyone will laugh at them.) And we want to make it clear that what we're seeing now is not American, is not the country we want to live in.

by Anonymousreply 11309/10/2020

North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

by Anonymousreply 11409/10/2020

I read recently that the majority of Republicans say they will vote in person, while the majority of Democrats say they will vote by mail. So having a big lead in vote by mail applications doesn’t necessarily reflect the final number of voters.

Trump keeps pushing his voters to vote in person and saying voting by mail is fraud. So obedient Trump voters will refuse to vote by mail probably. A lot of them will refuse to wear masks to the polls as well. If you have to vote in person, suit up. That’s the time to wear a face shield if you must go in person. Who knows what they will do to scare people away.

And vote early. Early voters are spread out over many days and it’s likely you can get in and out earlier, especially if you go when they open. Troublemakers and crazies tend not to be out the minute they open. And it’s cleaner.

by Anonymousreply 11509/10/2020

According to 538, the final polling averages from 538 were:

Trump: 41.8 Clinton: 45.7.

Trump outperformed that by 4.4 points, while Hillary outperformed hers by 2.7%. So maybe there is a tiny case to be made for shy Trump voters, those "undecideds" who broke for Trump at the last minute.

The problem with working "shy Trump" voters into 2016: there are few undecided voters.

Some election day polls from 2016 (% of voters not committed to either major candidate) ABC: 10% Ipsos: 19% YouGov: 13% Gravis: 10% Fox: 8% CBS: 14% NBC: 16% IDB: 16% Selzer: 15%

Average: 13.5%

(Remember, Gary Johnson was also polling quite strongly from 3-7% - it's likely Trump pulled some voters from him)

Recent 2020 polls (not committed to either major candidate)

USC: 5% Monmouth: 7% Morning Consult: 7% Kaiser: 9% YouGov: 5% Ipsos: 12% Rasmussen: 6% Data for Progress: 4%

Average: 7%

So, a few things:

1. If there were "shy Trump" voters in 2016, they weren't telling pollsters that they were going to vote for Clinton. She also outperformed her polls. They were telling pollsters that they were going third party, or were undecided. 2. There are half as many undecided voters this year as there were in 2016. If Trump is going to win, he needs ALL of them. He is behind Biden by a larger percentage than there are undecideds. 3. Third party candidates are marginal this year - I haven't seen any poll above 1%. There is little there for Trump to pull from. 4. Biden is polling above 50%.

We're still two months away, and voters can change, but Biden's lead has been remarkably stable. People are fed up with Trump. The only way he will win is through voting shenanigans, which is why he's fucking with the post office.

by Anonymousreply 11609/10/2020

Fixed for formatting:

According to 538, the final polling averages from 538 were:

Trump: 41.8 Clinton: 45.7.

Trump outperformed that by 4.4 points, while Hillary outperformed hers by 2.7%. So maybe there is a tiny case to be made for shy Trump voters, those "undecideds" who broke for Trump at the last minute.

The problem with working "shy Trump" voters into 2016: there are few undecided voters.

Some election day polls from 2016 (% of voters not committed to either major candidate)

ABC: 10%

Ipsos: 19%

YouGov: 13%

Gravis: 10%

Fox: 8%

CBS: 14%

NBC: 16%

IDB: 16%

Selzer: 15%

Average: 13.5%

(Remember, Gary Johnson was also polling quite strongly from 3-7% - it's likely Trump pulled some voters from him)

Recent 2020 polls (not committed to either major candidate)

USC: 5%

Monmouth: 7%

Morning Consult: 7%

Kaiser: 9%

YouGov: 5%

Ipsos: 12%

Rasmussen: 6%

Data for Progress: 4%

Average: 7%

So, a few things:

1. If there were "shy Trump" voters in 2016, they weren't telling pollsters that they were going to vote for Clinton. She also outperformed her polls. They were telling pollsters that they were going third party, or were undecided.

2. There are half as many undecided voters this year as there were in 2016. If Trump is going to win, he needs ALL of them. He is behind Biden by a larger percentage than there are undecideds.

3. Third party candidates are marginal this year - I haven't seen any poll above 1%. There is little there for Trump to pull from.

4. Biden is polling above 50%.

We're still two months away, and voters can change, but Biden's lead has been remarkably stable. People are fed up with Trump. The only way he will win is through voting shenanigans, which is why he's fucking with the post office.

by Anonymousreply 11709/10/2020

If Democrats vote early or vote by mail, fatty's goons won't have anyone to intimidate at the polls in election day.

The close we go to election day, the more of his voters die off without voting because they wanted to attend one of his coronafests.

by Anonymousreply 11809/10/2020

[quote]the more of his voters die off without voting because they wanted to attend one of his coronafests.

Worked for me!

by Anonymousreply 11909/10/2020

I don't think we're dealing with shy voters. Remember in Florida how it looked per exit polls after early voting that HRC would win and there was almost no chance Trump could take the state, but then he did? Shenanigans like that skewed the results, giving Trump a bump in votes that make some people think there were "shy Trumpsters" but there really weren't, just stolen votes.

by Anonymousreply 12009/11/2020

Trump keeps pushing his voters to vote in person and saying voting by mail is fraud.

I think the strategy is that fuck up states (you know who you are!) won't count the mail in votes, Dump's supporters vote in person, so Dump prematurely declares himself the winner before ALL votes are counted, casting the country into days & weeks of chaos. And I'm sure on voting day we'll have the usual antics of lines that go on for miles on dem areas while repugs area breeze in & out. And who knows what fuckery Barr has up his sleeve...

Lord, November 3rd cannot come soon enough

by Anonymousreply 12109/11/2020

North Carolina, where they've already started accepting ballots, is counting all ballots once a week, not just piled up and counted at end together. This from a North Carolina friend.

by Anonymousreply 12209/11/2020

New polls this morning from NYT/Siena:

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*: +5 Biden

*MINNESOTA*: +9 Biden

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*: +3 Biden

*NEVADA*: +4 Biden

[Poll conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 11]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 12309/12/2020

Harry Enten:

This is a HUGE difference with 2016. Biden's net favorability is... actually positive. Clinton's was down in the dumps negative.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 12409/12/2020

I blame Bernie and his misogynist BernBro army for this, R124.

by Anonymousreply 12509/12/2020

CBS/YouGov

September 13, 2020

*ARIZONA* (Biden +3)

*MINNESOTA* (Biden +9)

[Likely Voters, Sep 9-11, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 12609/13/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden 2020 vs Clinton 2016 as of September 14:

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 12709/14/2020

*ARIZONA*

OH Predictive Insights

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

[600 Likely Voters, Sep 8-10, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 12809/14/2020

Interesting R127, I knew the Undecided vote was much smaller this year than 2016, but that's an even bigger difference than I'd realized. To go from 18% decided to only 7% is astonishing.

by Anonymousreply 129Last Tuesday at 2:33 AM

R129, you nailed it. The smaller number of undecided voters in 2020 is one of the biggest differences the polls are showing compared to 2016.

by Anonymousreply 130Last Tuesday at 10:56 AM

*FLORIDA*

MONMOUTH POLL

Biden +5 (Likely Voters)

[Poll conducted Sep 10-13, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 131Last Tuesday at 10:58 AM

Meanwhile, today's CNN polls also have good numbers for Biden in Wisconsin and North Carolina:

*WISCONSIN* (Biden +10) Likely Voters

*NORTH CAROLINA* (Biden +3) Likely Voters

[Poll conducted Sep 9-13, 2020]

by Anonymousreply 132Last Tuesday at 10:59 AM

No wonder fat Donnie and his kkkrime kkklan are in a panic. The numbers are too big to rig.

That would also explain why most of the GOP Senators running for reelection are dead silent. They're fucked. Bigly.

Let's keep big Mo going right on through November 3rd, people. We can do it. Vote!

by Anonymousreply 133Last Tuesday at 12:09 PM

With all the heartache and fuckery this ENTIRE administration has unleashed on the sane and normal people of this country, I have to say at this point, that ANYONE who votes for Trump, or is STILL undecided, does not deserve to live. Fuck them.

by Anonymousreply 134Last Tuesday at 12:28 PM

I agree I hate his ignoramous supporters, they're the worst. Fucking racist pieces of shit..I have sent most of my friends packing of they were Dump supporters.

by Anonymousreply 135Last Tuesday at 2:17 PM

*VIRGINIA*

Virginia Commonwealth University

Biden +14

Biden (53%)

Trump (39%)

[693 Likely Voters, Aug 28-Sep 7, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 136Last Tuesday at 3:23 PM

ABC/WP poll

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (52)

Trump (46)

*

*MINNESOTA*

Biden (57)

Trump (41)

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 137Last Tuesday at 11:29 PM

For sign watchers, twitter user reporting this sign (I think in OH)

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 138Last Wednesday at 4:29 PM

Who says lawn signs don't matter (or worse, lawn signs are trashy)? That sign at R138 is awesome.

by Anonymousreply 139Last Thursday at 3:33 AM

Democrats are making the same mistake as they did in 2016 - ignoring the Midwest. Trump has made three appearances in Ohio already. Where's Biden? Where's Harris? He's leading in a state that was supposed to go to Trump, so where is Joe? Hillary ignored the same states and look what happened to her. Also, the Dems haven't reached out to the working poor white people, those who have suffered under Trump and could switch if they thought the other party gave a damn. It's after Labor Day. Where is Joe?

by Anonymousreply 140Last Thursday at 3:52 AM

Biden is going to Duluth. I agree he should be in Midwest, Florida, AZ, and NC every day that is not a debate day.

by Anonymousreply 141Last Thursday at 3:57 AM

Biden is doing a town hall in Scranton, PA tonight on CNN 8 pm EST

by Anonymousreply 142Last Thursday at 4:46 AM

New @Reuters / Ipsos poll shows Joe Biden with 9-point national lead; Donald Trump’s “law and order” message falls short with suburban voters.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 143Last Thursday at 4:48 AM

In two weeks, we will be a month away from the election. The intensity of the final month is about to begin. So many people are currently voting

by Anonymousreply 144Last Thursday at 5:00 AM

Nate Cohn: As an aside, the MULaw and NYT/Siena polls in WI were both R+2 by party identification, and Biden still led by 4/5 points among LVs, and more among LVs. It's just not as easy to judge these polls by party ID or past vote or whatever as you might think!

by Anonymousreply 145Last Thursday at 6:30 AM

Guess fascism didn't work as well as they hoped

McClatchy: Trump ditches ‘law and order’ for the economy in new TV ad blitz

[quote]All seven new TV ads released by the Trump campaign this month to air in battleground states and on national cable — including two new spots unveiled on Thursday — make an economic case for the president over his Democratic opponent. None of the commercials mention the crime and protests that were prevalent in the campaign’s previous messaging and repeated in full-throated speeches at the party’s convention

by Anonymousreply 146Last Thursday at 11:12 AM

[quote]It gathered responses from 1,335 American adults, including 551 Democrats and 523 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 to 5 percentage points.

So that's 28 more Democrats than Rethuglicans, not including Rethug leaning independents who were probably not included, not to mention that 3-5% credibility interval, formerly known as the confidence interval:

[quote]most of the time, most poll statistics are analyzed at a 95% confidence interval. This means roughly, if we theoretically repeated this exact poll 100 times, 95 of the 100 times we would expect the real number to be in the range indicated by the margin of error. HOWEVER, you must also notice 5 out of 100 times our answer could be OUTSIDE the correct range. Combine both of margin of error and confidence intervals- even before humans are entered into the process – and you see there is uncertainty built into the very framework of polling.

All I see here is complacency, complacency, complacency, and that's because so many of you lack basic reading and polling comprehension.

by Anonymousreply 147Last Thursday at 11:25 AM

[quote]Democrats are making the same mistake as they did in 2016 - ignoring the Midwest.

Concern troll is concerned.

No, Democrats aren't. And neither are Harris or Biden, which you would know if you had bothered to look at their schedules and the states they are visiting, either virtually or in reality.

by Anonymousreply 148Last Thursday at 4:15 PM

Siena College/The New York Times

*ARIZONA* (Biden +9)

*NORTH CAROLINA (Biden +1)

*MAINE* (Biden +17)

[Likely Voters, Sep 10-15, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 149Last Friday at 1:57 AM

You are an early bird PT

by Anonymousreply 150Last Friday at 2:22 AM

The Midwest really is full of fucking needy idiots (not you guys who vote Dem). It seems unless the Democrats are standing outside their fucking window with a boombox over their heads, many in flyover automatically vote GOP. Amazing how the states that actually pay for everything and "live in a bubble" aren't such delicate flowers that we need a politician coddling us nonstop.

by Anonymousreply 151Last Friday at 2:34 AM

R151, Latino "voters" are similar, and even when coddled they have the lowest voting rate.

by Anonymousreply 152Last Friday at 5:45 AM

Latinos are so diverse, and attempts to view them as a block, only offends many of them

by Anonymousreply 153Last Friday at 6:05 AM

R153 is right: they want to be coddled according to their places of origin and respective races. You have to parse the ethnicity and get granular.

by Anonymousreply 154Last Friday at 6:22 AM

And appealing to one subset of Latinos could backfire with other Hispanics

by Anonymousreply 155Last Friday at 6:35 AM

If November's election for president were held today ...

WHITE: Not college grad Trump/Pence 63% Biden/Harris 33%

WHITE: College grad Trump/Pence 31% Biden/Harris 66%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, LV, 9/11-16/20)

by Anonymousreply 156Last Friday at 12:08 PM

If November's election for president were held today ...

Trump/Pence 43% Biden/Harris 52%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, LV, 9/11-16/20) more:

by Anonymousreply 157Last Friday at 12:33 PM

As usual, the more educated people are making the better choice.

by Anonymousreply 158Last Friday at 4:22 PM

Uneducated = racist garbage

by Anonymousreply 159Last Friday at 4:43 PM

Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice

In surveys before Justice Ginsburg’s death, he led by a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all against President Trump.

Sept. 19, 2020

There’s no way to know exactly what will unfold, but a closer look at recent polls, including new New York Times/Siena College surveys, does provide reason to think that Joseph R. Biden Jr. might have as much — or more — upside on the issue than President Trump.

What voters say on picking the next judge

In Times/Siena polls of Maine, North Carolina and Arizona released Friday, voters preferred Mr. Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent. In each of the three states, Mr. Biden led by just a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all.

Similarly, a Fox News poll last week found that voters nationwide trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump — by seven points — to nominate the next Supreme Court justice. Here again, Mr. Biden led by a slightly wider margin on this issue than he led Mr. Trump.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 160Last Saturday at 3:27 AM

Harry Enten:

We're going to have to see how things look when the dust clears... but Unlike 2016, polling this year suggests Democrats more motivated by Supreme Court than Republicans... I just think it's a totally different ballgame we're looking at.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 161Last Saturday at 2:10 PM
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