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General thread for * 2020 Election Polls *, Part II

Poll trolls, continue your thoughts!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 37218 hours ago

A3b. Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in TWELVE by 9/1/16. Just four ties for Biden (two for Clinton), and only one w/undecided factor ≥10% (Atlas 2/3: 45/45); in other words, when leaners break, they break for Biden.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 109/01/2020

Nevada Poll:

Biden 44% (+5) Trump 39%

University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business 8/20-30

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 209/01/2020

Montana Poll: Trump 48% (+4) Biden 44%

Expedition Strategies/@HouseMajPAC (D) 8/22-27

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 309/01/2020

R1, we no longer trust Nate Silver’s ratings.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 409/01/2020

North Carolina Governor GE: Cooper (D-inc) 50% (+10) Forest (R) 40

East Carolina University, LV, 8/29-30 #NCgov

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 509/01/2020

National GE: Biden 49% (+8) Trump 41% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 1%

@RedfieldWilton, LV, 8/31-9/1

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 609/01/2020

GEORGIA Trump 48% (+7) Biden 41% Jorgensen 2% Landmark/@wsbtv, LV, 8/29-31

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 709/01/2020

North Carolina Senate GE: Tillis (R-inc) 44% Cunningham (D) 44%

East Carolina University, LV, 8/29-30

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 809/01/2020

North Carolina Poll:

Trump 49% (+2) Biden 47%

East Carolina University (8/29-30)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 909/01/2020

Shouldn't Biden be up more in Nevada?

Is there cause for concern?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1009/01/2020

Yes, I saw a story on MSNBC saying Democrats in Nevada are concerned stringent COVID-19 restrictions there may have created a backlash against Democrats among the tourist industry

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1109/01/2020

Who Is Likely To Win?

Biden: 36% (-4) Trump: 35% (+4) Both As Likely: 13% (-)

Redfield & Wilton / September 1, 2020 / n=1,835 / Online

(% chg w August 20)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1209/01/2020

new Ann Selzer national poll for Grinnell College:

Biden 49% Trump 41%

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1309/02/2020

National GE: Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos 8/31-9/1

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1409/02/2020

National GE: Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 52% (+9) Republicans 43%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 8/26-9/1

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1509/02/2020

National GE: Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos 8/31-9/1

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1609/02/2020

National GE: Biden 47% (+5) Trump 42% Jorgensen 1% Hawkins 0% . Head-2-Head: Biden 50% (+7) Trump 43%

@Suffolk_U/@USATODAY, RV, 8/28-31

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1709/02/2020

R11, link?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1809/02/2020

Nevada gitters

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 1909/02/2020

National GE: Biden 56% (+15) Trump 41%

@OpiniumResearch/@guardian 8/21-25

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2009/02/2020

Narrowing.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2109/02/2020

Trump rapidly surges to big lead in Georgia

President Donald Trump has built an apparent lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Georgia after two weeks of political conventions, strengthening his position in a state that’s crucial to his re-election chances, according to a poll released Tuesday by Channel 2 Action News.

The poll, conducted by Landmark Communications, shows Trump ahead of Biden, 48% to 41%. About 2% of Georgians support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, while 9% are undecided.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2209/02/2020

The Landmark poll highlighted bright spots for Biden, too. He led Trump 45% to 16% among independent voters, a bloc that once reliably supported Republicans in Georgia. About 80% of Black voters back the Democrat, and he leads Trump 43% to 37% among voters ages 39 and under.

“It’s probably all temporary — a convention bounce. But it shows there’s room for Trump to go up,” Rountree said, nodding to the roughly one-third of independents who still haven’t decided. “I’d put Georgia in the lean Republican category

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2309/02/2020

How about the protests stop until after the election? Fuck. It's all fucking moron children. They're not even going to fucking VOTE.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2409/02/2020

Yeah, yeah it's hack Tom Friedman, but he makes a good point.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2509/02/2020

Some better news.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2609/02/2020

Buy, donate.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2709/02/2020
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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2809/02/2020

BLM back to the mean.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 2909/02/2020

Yeah, Trump’ s attack on BLM and appeal to Law and Order has given some centrist and independent voters cover to vote for him without feeling guilty

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3009/02/2020

Biden really hasn't had any dips in polling the way HRC did in 2016. It's been a remarkably steady race, poll wise.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3109/02/2020

Biden aides have grown accustomed to — and wary of — Democrats who question their every move and worry at every tightening poll.

They’ve dealt so much with “bedwetters,” aides have a term for the actions taken to satisfy them: “Operation Rubber Sheets.”

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3209/02/2020

Tight. NEW Monmouth poll of PA:

All registered Biden 49% Trump 45%

High turnout model Biden 49% Trump 46%

Low turnout model Biden 48% Trump 47%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3309/02/2020

Trump Is campaigning his heart out. He is on the road like a truck driver. Yes, he’s lying and fearmongering, but in person campaigning works.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3409/02/2020

Monmouth out, Biden up by 4.

Quinnipac dropping later today, apparently.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3509/02/2020

Cheeto is using every headline to build up the association "Biden = AOC takeover". Biden needs to be as ruthless. But he won't, because, I mean, Dems aren't like that.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3609/02/2020

Campaigning in person may "work" but we're in a pandemic, and I would wager that the only people demanding in-person campaigning are already Trumpsters or leaning that way to begin with. Everyone else is rightly concerned about large group gatherings.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3709/02/2020

The polls are tightening too soon. If this were mid October I wouldn't be as worried; however, where polls are Trump are concerned I believe you have to add around four points to his polling data to get an accurate picture.

We ALL have to do our part in this. Talk to people--your friends, your family, etc., and get them to vote. I've registered two girls in my office and convinced three lapsed Jehovah's Witnesses to vote for the first time ever. Evidently for that church, voting is too "wordly." What the fuck ever.

If everyone did the same we'd be in a much better position.

This time last month I was feeling guardedly confident and now I'm worried shitless. I just can't stand the idea of another four years of this Orange Fucktard.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3809/02/2020

R37, not really. Campaigning on the ground creates hype, excitement, and massive media coverage, most importantly, in state and local media. Like Hillary, Biden is getting a tiny percentage of media coverage compared to Trump. Yes, a lot of Trump coverage is negative, but he’s getTing his message and narrative out while appearing to be a leader by going to swing states.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 3909/02/2020

Where the heck is Kamala? Why isn’t she on the ground in swing states right now creating media?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4009/02/2020

"however, where polls AND Trump are concerned"

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4109/02/2020

R37, if it’s moving the polls, it’s working . That’s what matters.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4209/02/2020

This Is Democrats’ Doomsday Scenario for Election Night

What if early results in swing states on Nov. 3 show President Trump ahead, and he declares victory before heavily Democratic mail-in votes, which he has falsely linked with fraud, are fully counted?

By Trip Gabriel

Sept. 2, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

As returns came in on election night in Florida in 2018, the Republicans running for governor and the Senate took narrow leads in races that were too close to call.

Over the next days, their Democratic opponents began closing the gaps as mailed-in votes were counted. President Trump raised an alarm. Demanding that the races be called for the Republicans, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, he tweeted falsely that “large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere,” adding: “An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!”

Nothing was fraudulent about the ballots tallied in the days after Election Day. And neither Democrat went on to win his race. Yet Mr. Trump has never let go of a baseless accusation that Democrats use mail voting to “steal” elections, a piece of disinformation he has promoted all year, including at the Republican National Convention.

Now, with the coronavirus pandemic driving an explosion in absentee voting, and polls suggesting that far more Democrats than Republicans plan to vote by mail, a nightmare scenario haunts Democratic strategists and elected officials.

What if early results in swing states on election night show the president in the lead because most Republicans voted in person, yet in the days afterward, as mail ballots that tilt heavily Democratic are tallied, states flip to Joseph R. Biden Jr.?

Would Mr. Trump claim premature victory — as he did on behalf of the two Florida Republicans and dangled as a possibility in a tweet in July: “Must know Election results on the night of the Election, not days, months, or even years later!”

Would the president, joined by allies in the G.O.P. and the news media, sow distrust in the election by arguing that mail ballots that shift states away from him are “rigged”?

Mr. Trump has been pushing denunciations of mailed-in votes for months, and his penchant for conspiracy theories is only intensifying, such as saying this week that people in “dark shadows” are behind Mr. Biden’s campaign. The nightmare scenario in November is worth preparing for, many Democrats say.

“We’ve certainly seen candidates trying to get out in front of a narrative and declare victory when all the votes have not been counted,” said Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, a Democrat whom Mr. Trump has attacked for promoting mail voting.

...

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4309/02/2020

Agreed, R42.

Biden needs to get out there and be seen!!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4409/02/2020

...

Ms. Benson and other Democrats in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both key battlegrounds, are trying to change election laws that prohibit absentee ballots from being processed or counted before Election Day. As of now, mail-in votes from large Democratic cities like Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit are not reported until after in-person votes, sometimes days later. Party lawyers are girding for a worst-case scenario in which Mr. Trump fights in courts and state legislatures after declaring a premature victory.

“There has been (rightly) a lot of concern about this,” J.J. Balaban, a Democratic consultant in Pennsylvania, said in an email.

In Michigan, Ms. Benson predicted that three million votes would be cast by mail this year, 60 percent of the total. She has called for changes to let election clerks process absentee ballots early — opening envelopes, contacting voters if ballot signatures don’t match registrations, and beginning the counting. If the changes don’t pass in the Republican-led Legislature, full results may not be known until the Friday or Saturday after Nov. 3, Ms. Benson said. “Time is running out.”

Currently, 12 states do not allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, including the battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A Democratic data group backed by Michael R. Bloomberg said this week that it was likely that Mr. Trump would appear to have won on election night by a landslide, a scenario it called “a red mirage.”

“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Josh Mendelsohn, the chief executive of the group, Hawkfish, told “Axios on HBO.” The company’s survey of registered voters concluded that twice as many planned to cast a ballot by mail as ever before, and that they were mostly Biden supporters.

A spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, Thea McDonald, called Democrats’ concerns about the president prematurely declaring victory “an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory,” adding, “President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair, transparent election in which every valid ballot counts — once.”

The president has raged against mail voting all year, tweeting in May that “there is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent.”

As Mr. Trump demonizes mail ballots, many of his supporters do not plan to use them.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll last month found that nearly half — 47 percent — of supporters of Mr. Biden planned to mail in their votes, compared with two-thirds of Trump supporters — 66 percent — who planned to vote in person on Election Day.

In some states, the discrepancy is even more stark. A recent Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin, another swing state, found that among voters planning to cast a mail ballot, Mr. Biden was favored by 67 percentage points. Among those who planned to vote on Election Day, Mr. Trump led by 41 points.

Mr. Trump himself casts his own Florida ballots as an absentee voter. He has claimed a distinction between “good” absentee ballots and “bad” mail-in ballots, but there is no meaningful difference. His real target seems to be certain states — which this year include California, New Jersey and Utah — where all active registered voters are sent mail-in ballots, not just ballot request forms. Thirty-four states allow all voters to use an absentee ballot without an excuse, mailing it back or dropping it off.

Elections experts say that absentee or mail voting is potentially more subject to instances of fraud than in-person voting, but that states with a history of all-mail voting have a minuscule number of cases. Wide-scale cheating that could swing a close race would be easy to detect.

“Imagine if you tried to change the outcome in Pennsylvania; you’d need a widespread conspiracy,” said Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine.

...

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4509/02/2020

...

Even before Mr. Trump injected new partisanship into mail voting, election analysts identified a “blue shift” in how late-counted absentee ballots tend to boost Democratic candidates.

On election night of the 2018 midterms, a predicted wave of Democratic gains looked like a wipeout. But as mail ballots were tallied in the days and weeks afterward, Democrats kept winning close races. Their net gains in the House went from an apparent 26 seats on election night to 41.

“We’re likely to see a significantly dramatic blue shift in multiple states because of the virus and the political response to the virus,” said Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University, who coined the term “blue shift.”

“How will the public process the concept that election night may end in uncertainty, and this phenomenon is not fraud, it’s just the counting process?” he said.

While TV viewers are used to election night projections of who has won, some broadcast and digital journalists are discussing ways to clearly inform voters that results may be incomplete.

A claim of victory on election night by Mr. Trump, before results are certified by officials, would have no legal effect, Dr. Hasen said. “That said,” he added, “it could have a great political effect and convince his most ardent supporters that he has won the election and any changes in the counts are due to fraud. That’s really a huge concern.”

Anthony Spano, a Trump supporter in Old Forge, Pa., said the president was “so right” when he warned of potential fraud by Democrats. “If they think there’s unrest now, just wait to see if they try to steal this election,” said Mr. Spano, who has worked as a truck mechanic. “Personally, I think people that are nonviolent, we’re going to get very violent.”

Partisan lawsuits are already flying in multiple states around voting procedures, and legal and political challenges are sure to come where results are razor-thin.

Mail ballots, whose use soared in primaries this year because of the pandemic, have been subject to high rejection rates because of human errors: omitted signatures, missed deadlines and missing postmarks. For many Democrats, recent fears that the Postal Service could fail to deliver ballots on time to be counted could potentially swing the pendulum back toward in-person voting.

The party is shifting from its springtime message, that mail voting is safer, to one urging voters to request and return absentee ballots early, and if possible to vote in person. Michelle Obama told viewers of the Democratic National Convention, “We’ve got to vote early — in person if possible.”

In Pennsylvania, Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, a Democrat, and other officials have called for a new law to allow absentee ballots to be opened and processed as early as three weeks before Election Day. Those results would be reported at the same time as Election Day in-person votes.

The point is “to try to avoid candidates making false claims about wins and losses,” said Representative Madeleine Dean, a Democrat from the Philadelphia suburbs who backs the legislation.

Republican state lawmakers partly support the reform, calling in a bill for early processing of mail ballots the Saturday before Election Day. For now, the bill is deadlocked because Democrats oppose other voting changes sought by Republicans, such as eliminating ballot drop-off boxes.

“I worry about a deadlock and not doing the right thing for our elections,” Ms. Dean said. “I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail.”

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4609/02/2020

[quote]where polls are Trump are concerned I believe you have to add around four points to his polling data to get an accurate picture

Fortunately, what you "believe" isn't necessarily the truth.

Every expert out there has said repeatedly that this has been the steadiest race in modern history.

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4709/02/2020

Biden and Kamala should have been campaigning hard in swing states the day after the DNC. They are repeating Hillary mistakes. Lowkey Zoom campaigning will cost us this election.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4809/02/2020

[quote]Biden needs to get out there and be seen!!

We just saw him yesterday making fun of a Trump heckler in the back of a pickup truck.

Stop buying the rightwing lie that he's disappeared and isn't making appearances, jesus people.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 4909/02/2020

Biden needs to be aggressive, vocal, put Trump on the defensive. He cannot continue this low energy mess.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5009/02/2020

Re article at R43, all the top comments are along the lines of "Dems must vote in-person."

I think that'll be the rising chorus among pundits. I hope it becomes a thing.

Vote in-person.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5109/02/2020

R47 you two are arguing about 2 different things: Accuracy vs. volatility.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5209/02/2020

My advice to you R38 is to stop looking at polls. You are just going to raise your blood pressure needlessly.

And it's a mistake for Democrats to rely on mail in voting through the USPS. Vote early in person or use election board approved drop boxes.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5309/02/2020

Wait, Monmouth was only polling 400 people? I didn't realize it was such a small sample.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5409/02/2020

Law and Order and aggressive swing state campaign appearances are working for Trump. He will ride this all the way to Election Day.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5509/02/2020

Volunteer to be a poll worker, if you can.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5609/02/2020

BREAKING: Biden to visit Kenosha on Thursday

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5709/02/2020

R52, there is no way every single poll that has been aggregated to reflect this steady race is 4 points off in Biden's favor, and has been for months on end.

That's what the poster claimed, that all polls were cutting 4 points or so off of Trump voters and giving us inaccurate data.

Some polls skew left or right, we know that from RCP and 538, they talk about it pretty regularly. But a wholesale disbelief in all polling because it's "always 4 points or so off" and makes Trump falsely look like he's further behind than he is? No, that's not possible.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5809/02/2020

R57, that's good news. He needs to get out there.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 5909/02/2020

Even if he can’t shake hands or getting into the crowd, Biden needs energetic campaign events in swing states to have a chance. People are contrasting his lowkey virtual campaign to Trump’s wildcat visiting of three states a day with rabid crowds, and judging Biden as weak and ineffectual. Biden needs to get out there with a mask.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6009/02/2020

Biden to Air Law-and-Order Ad Condemning Rioters and Looters

The ad, part of a $45 million one-week tv and digital purchase that is by far the campaign’s largest to date, comes as he pushes back against Trump’s attacks.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6109/02/2020

That’s a good move. Finally

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6209/02/2020

Flashback to @MonmouthPoll Late Aug 2016 In Pennsylvania:

Clinton 48% (+8) Trump 40% 3rd Party 7%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6309/02/2020

National Poll:

Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos (8/31-9/1)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6409/02/2020

National Poll:

Biden 47% (+5) Trump 42% 3rd Party 1%

Head-2-Head: Biden 50% (+7) Trump 43%

@Suffolk_U/@USATODAY (8/28-31)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6509/02/2020

Is that the Pittsburgh speech, R61? It's a pretty good one.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6609/02/2020

Why r10? Clinton won Nevada by 2 points, Biden winning it by 5 or so sounds about right.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6709/02/2020

Trump - Approval/disapproval

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6809/02/2020

Trump had a little post-convention bump in Nevada R67, but it looks like per 538 that's already dropped back down.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 6909/02/2020

On August 27, 2019, President Donald Trump held a 41.3 percent approval rating and a 54.2 percent disapproval rating. During the 365 days that followed:

• Trump became the third president impeached by the House of Representatives;

• more than 200,000 Americans died from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus;

• the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 10.2 percent;

• an estimated 12 million people lost health insurance coverage;

• Trump pardoned Roger Stone, who was facing jail time for dirty tricks on the president’s behalf;

• George Floyd’s murder sparked a nationwide movement protesting for racial justice — to which officials responded by tear-gassing demonstrators in Lafayette Park in Washington, DC, so Trump could take a photograph holding a Bible.

That is, of course, a bitterly incomplete list of a grimly consequential year in American history. But you’d never know it simply by following Trump’s poll numbers. On August 27, 2020 — one year later, and the day Trump used the White House as a backdrop for his convention speech — FiveThirtyEight had Trump at 42.2 percent approval and 54.3 percent disapproval.

Everything had happened, and politically, nothing had mattered. Or, at the least, not much had changed.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7009/02/2020

The Debates Are Around the Corner—Desperate Donald’s Last Chance to Lie His Way to Re-Election

The first one is less than a month away. So it’s very much time to start anticipating what stunts Trump will pull this time.

Margaret Carlson

Updated Sep. 02, 2020 9:20AM ET

Published Sep. 01, 2020 4:40AM ET

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7109/02/2020

[quote]Fortunately, what you "believe" isn't necessarily the truth. Every expert out there has said repeatedly that this has been the steadiest race in modern history . . . That's what the poster claimed, that all polls were cutting 4 points or so off of Trump voters and giving us inaccurate data.

No, that wan't my point. I wasn't saying that pollsters were purposely skewing polls; instead I was saying that Trump voters don't always claim him.

R64/R65 I'm incredibly happy that we're still up by seven points . . . but this time last month what was our lead? I want to say we were up by twelve points. The point I'm trying to make is that our lead is in fact shrinking and it's shrinking with sixty-one days to go. WE CAN'T REST ON OUR LAURELS OR "STEADY" POLLING DATA! We all have to DO OUR PART to win this election. That means talking to people and getting them out there to vote. Trump is out there energizing his base every damn day; he's being seen. I'm a radiologist with my own clinic and an office in a local hospital. The televisions in my office are always on CNN and I'm seeing more Trump than I am Biden. I want that to change. I want to see Biden's face every fucking time I turn on the TV.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7209/02/2020

I don’t know why on earth anyone, let alone a polling company, would waste time on the overall polls. Aren’t they worthless in a presidential race?

Swing states are the only polls that matter. Why would the overall polls be published? What does that inform?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7309/02/2020

Portland is still ruining things.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7409/02/2020

I'll say it now: If Trump gets the best of Biden during the debates and makes Biden come off as confused or befuddled, it's over. It's also over if Trump appears more "energetic" and dare I say "youthful" than Biden. It'll be the Kennedy-Nixon debates all over.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7509/02/2020

Trump is going to win

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7609/02/2020

[quote]I was saying that Trump voters don't always claim him.

I get it, that's what I thought you said, but there is simply no way that most (or all) polls since 2015 have included lies and omissions from "secret Trumpsters" who won't tell pollsters who they will vote for.

That was an excuse the media came up with to try to explain why Trump won in 2016.

Trump won in part because of people disliking HRC, but also thanks to racism, the Comey letter, voter suppression, and very likely voter registration changes made by Russia when they hacked into systems in all 50 states.

There really aren't a lot of secret Trumpsters. Even the "shy Trumper" mentioned in Businessweek recently was a guy who had written a book about Trump. Hardly shy at all.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7709/02/2020

I do want to add at R77 though that polling may be inaccurate simply because of all the things it CAN'T control for, like in 2016. The polls couldn't reflect the Comey letter, or voter suppression.

So I'm not saying everyone should assume Biden will win, but I don't think anyone has made any kind of real case for there being secret Trumpsters who always skew the polls, either.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7809/02/2020

Actually, r77, they tend to be more honest about it when it's not a live caller poll. When I last did the comparison in June, the online polls had the race tighter than the live caller polls. I haven't looked to closely lately.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 7909/02/2020

I’m strictly focused on the approval/disapproval rating. That has been going in his favor for the last week. It’s shooting straight up (and disapproval straight down).

This is not good.

He is a terrible person and selling us all out. His approval should be ZERO.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8009/02/2020

Biden needs to be in the key states as much as possible. Don’t do a Hillary and ignore them.

I guess he has to be in the three debates, but I think those can only help Trump.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8109/02/2020

[quote] but I think those can only help Trump.

For fuck's sake, why do you think the debates can only help Trump? He can't form a single fucking sentence!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8209/02/2020

A lot of good points in the last few posts here

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8309/02/2020

Biden absolutely cannot make gaffes in debates or otherwise

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8409/02/2020

[quote] Biden absolutely cannot make gaffes in debates or otherwise

But Trump can say any salad of words he wants. Because MAGA!!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8509/02/2020

R82, the debates give him a chance to put on a show and lie endlessly. Dem candidates, including Biden, don’t know how to counter blatant lies during debates.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8609/02/2020

It always interests me about those people who focus on Biden's so-called gaffes. Have you not been paying attention to Trump these last 4 years? Do we really need to make a list of Trump's gaffes? People who are concerned about Biden and gaffes are just falling prey to memes.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8709/02/2020

[quote] the debates give him a chance to put on a show and lie endlessly

No, he wont have a teleprompter to drone a speech off of. He will spout nonsense and half-sentences and demonstrate to all how much damage the many mini-strokes he's had have done.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8809/02/2020

R87, But who’s fault is it that trumps gaffes don’t sink in, but Biden’s do? Shouldn’t Democrats and Biden be better at capitalizing on Trump’s incessant gaffes?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 8909/02/2020

And he won't have an audience to play to.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9009/02/2020

R88, hope so, but it’s usually when he argues off the cuff that he’s the most effective in lying.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9109/02/2020

I don't think the debates can only help Trump, r81. The country is in a terrible place right now and digging us out is more important this year. If Biden comes in and sticks to the issues with concrete plans and Trump launches into bullshit points then Trump is toast. People aren't having bullshit this time.

A lot is going to depend on the moderators too. Most of the debate moderators in 2016 were shit. Same goes for the primary debates this election season. Mike Wallace did a credible job in 2016 and again this year. Bring in someone of his caliber to moderate but for the love of dog, keep David Muir, Lester Holt, Margaret Brennan and Nora O'Donnell away from the building.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9209/02/2020

R88, I thought Trump was horrible during the 2016 debates, yet the media and 45% of Americans said he did pretty good. He is judged by your such a low standard that people applaud him for just speaking English.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9309/02/2020

I wholeheartedly agree, R93. After that first debate I thought it was all over, that we had it in the bag.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9409/02/2020

I don't think the debates will do much. The most important factor will be outside events. If Biden can't beat Trump back on the law and order issue, he'll lose. The economy for everybody but the bottom 20% is actually not that bad. Trump has made everything about riots in cities. That better change because it's not a winner for Biden.

I just wish Biden would amp up his presence. It's not enough to give a speech once a week. He needs to schedule some socially distanced rallies as well. How about some rallies with farmers, cops and firemen? Can't the Dems even spend a day trying to peel off a few white men from Trump?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9509/02/2020

Me too. What are they thinking keeping Biden from being aggressive On the campaign trail? Who the heck is advising him?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9609/02/2020

[quote]I'll say it now: If Trump gets the best of Biden during the debates and makes Biden come off as confused or befuddled, it's over.

I swear, some of you people live on Mars. Trump is actively senile. That Laura Ingraham interview made that very clear.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9709/02/2020

Chris Wallace - 1st Debate

Steven Scully - 2nd Debate

and Kristen Welker - 3rd Debate

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9809/02/2020

NEW national poll from The Economist/YouGov

Biden: 51% Trump: 40

Was Biden +9 last week, +10 the week before.

Poll of 1,207 registered voters conducted Aug 30 - Sept 1

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 9909/02/2020

[quote]I swear, some of you people live on Mars. Trump is actively senile. That Laura Ingraham interview made that very clear.

And if you don't think that Trump's base and a lot of idiot Independents won't cheer him on if gets up there and puts on an unprofessional "show" to get the best of Joe Biden, you're just not living in the real world.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10009/02/2020

So glad the networks wised up on the moderators.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10109/02/2020

Just one moderator for each. That’s good. The selections are good.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10209/02/2020

I’m wondering what the Times is going to turn into the next “but her emails”.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10309/02/2020

Trump flexes power of incumbency in North Carolina trip. He is NC like he lives there

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10409/02/2020

Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden.

YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC

IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV)

Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10509/02/2020

North Carolina can be won.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10609/02/2020

Biden is doing a good job right now talking about reopening schools. Very good.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10709/02/2020

It theoretically can be won, but since 2010, Republicans have overperformed there and been hyperenergized, while Democratic turnout has been disappointing

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10809/02/2020

To win NC, Biden has to turn election around from focusing on law and order and culture issues

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 10909/02/2020

I'm one of those incredibly politically active folks who gets really involved with the presidential campaigns. I kid you not, I still have scars on my knuckles from knocking on doors for Obama. Because there's not a lot of in person volunteering going on this election cycle I have no outlet for my fears, engery, etc., and it's really taking a toll on my mental health.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11009/02/2020

North Carolina is a state where if Biden is winning it, that means he has already won the election. Its not a must win state, it's a "this was a really great night" state.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11109/02/2020

Quinnipiac poll:

Do you feel more or less safe?

**Trump: More safe 35%

Less safe 50%

**Biden: More safe 42%

Less safe 40%

Likely voters say 58 – 38% that the country is worse off than it was in 2016.

On handling racial inequality, Biden would do a better job 58–36%

On handling the response to COVID, Biden would do a better job 56–40%

On handling health care, Biden would do a better job 55 – 41%

On handling a crisis, Biden would do a better job 53 – 43%

Joe Biden 52%. -- Donald Trump 42%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11209/02/2020

This is NOT good.

Monmouth poll: Trump, Biden statistically tied in Pennsylvania

President Trump has gained 9 points on Joe Biden in Pennsylvania over the past six weeks, pulling into a statistical tie with the Democratic presidential nominee in a key battleground state, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 49 percent and Trump at 45 percent among all registered voters in the state. That’s within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error and a far closer race than Monmouth found in July, when Biden led 53 to 40 among registered voters.

The race is even closer among likely voters.

When Monmouth forecasts a high turnout election, Biden leads Trump 49 to 46. In a model reflecting lower turnout, Biden’s lead is only 1 point, at 48 to 47. In July, Biden led by 10 points in the high turnout model and by 7 points in the low turnout model.

“This is really a game of inches,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”

The race has tightened as men in the state have swung wildly in favor of Trump. The president leads by 19 points among men, compared to his 2-point advantage in July.

The race has also grown closer among voters under the age of 50, moving from a 29 point advantage for Biden in July to a 9 point advantage presently.

Biden leads by 24 points among women and by 11 points among seniors. He has a 60 point lead among people of color, although the number of undecided voters here has gone up from 3 percent to 9 percent since July.

“The Republican convention attempted to sow some seeds of doubt among core Democratic blocs, especially young and urban voters,” said Murray. “It looks like they may have had a small amount of success with that, at least for now.”

Biden has traveled to Pennsylvania, which is not far from his Delaware home, more than any other state since the coronavirus lockdown began. Earlier this week, Biden traveled to Pittsburgh to deliver a speech blaming Trump for stoking racial unrest in the country.

A majority of Pennsylvanians, 53 percent, say they trust Biden on the issue of race relations, compared to 42 percent for Trump.

Fifty-two percent say they’re not worried about the suburbs being threatened by violent protests. However, 39 percent of independents and 30 percent of Democrats say people moving into their neighborhoods bringing crime and lower property values is at least a minor problem.

“About 1 in 6 Democrats who actually agree with the GOP’s warning of a threat to the suburbs say they will vote for Trump,” Murray said. “Now, this group represents a fairly small proportion of the total electorate, but it is still large enough to make a difference in a very close race.”

Trump adds to lead in Georgia: poll Support for Black Lives Matter dips 9 points since June: poll Biden’s favorability rating is at 48 percent positive and 46 negative in the poll, with 37 percent of Pennsylvanians viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 32 percent had a very unfavorable view of Biden.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 44 positive and 51 negative, with 45 percent viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 47 percent had a very unfavorable view of Trump.

The Monmouth University poll of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted Aug. 28-Aug. 31 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11309/02/2020

New CNN poll has Biden +8

We have gotten a lot of polls post convention showing Biden is up in the 7-8 range, so that's the current state of the race.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11409/02/2020

Forgot link

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11509/02/2020

How much are the Democrats investing in North Carolina? We are a swing state. I saw various political pundits tweet that the Biden campaign should focus on Florida and the midwest with all the money they raised last month. I think they should fight for NC as well. I do not like the feeling that my state could possibly be won but it is not worth as much as the others.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11609/02/2020

NC seems stubbornly hard to win, almost as hard as Ohio. Pennsylvania seems only marginally easier than NC, even though Biden is from Scranton.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11709/02/2020

Back to 70 for Biden.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11809/02/2020

Mark my words, Trump's gonna try to hold us all hostage with the vaccine. He'll say that we'll get it (whatever 'it' is) if he’s re-elected, but claim it could be held up in the transition if we elect Biden.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 11909/02/2020

TIPP B 49- Dotard 41

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12009/02/2020

[quote] Mark my words, Trump's gonna try to hold us all hostage with the vaccine. He'll say that we'll get it (whatever 'it' is) if he’s re-elected, but claim it could be held up in the transition if we elect Biden.

Honest to God, I would vote for Biden and die in peace, knowing I left the world a better place.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12109/02/2020

Just received my poll worker paperwork and training day schedule today.

I'm going in. Join me! Contact your local county Board of Elections to register to be a poll worker!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12209/02/2020

It's common sense to invest more resources in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida than in North Carolina r116.

Look at Trump's margin of victory in 2016. You focus heavily on the the states that are most winnable. Those are your must win states.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12309/02/2020

Disagree, R123. If I was in a state that was significantly Republican, I would understand. NC is a swing state. I would focus heavily on all of the swing states.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12409/02/2020

4.9 seems like a high margin of error. How reliable is Monmouth usually?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12509/02/2020

Have you talked with anyone under 25 who exhibits an understanding of how important this election is? Not so much the student debt, health care, criminal justice reform, etc. dimensions, but the existential, systemic importance?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12609/02/2020

How sweet would victory be? Can you imagine it? Dear god, the greatest moment of one's life, probably like V-J and V-E days.

Trump. his family, Barr, etc. all swept away in January. It's hard to envision but oh how sweet it would be.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12709/02/2020

I would drop to my knees and weep unashamedly if it happens, R127.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12809/02/2020

We would call it V-T day and it would be celebrated for generations to come.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 12909/02/2020

Same here, R128. I’ll also feel energized to make sure it’s completed in January. I’ll keep donating to the DNC.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13009/02/2020

And both of the people who believe him will then vote for him R119

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13109/02/2020

Buy something people.

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13209/02/2020

Damn. The new Fox News polls have stellar numbers for Biden.

NEW Fox News Polls

ARIZONA

Joe Biden 49%

Donald Trump 40%

NORTH CAROLINA

Joe Biden 50%

Donald Trump 46%

WISCONSIN

Joe Biden 50%

Donald Trump 42%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13309/02/2020

Maybe Poll Troll can help with this, why is it that all the focus is on the horse race polls and not on Plump’s approval rating?

It seems his approval rating is a raw way to track the other polls anyway.

But the question here is why isn’t this front and center in poll discussions. His approval ratings are improving at an alarming clip.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13409/02/2020

He’s up 3.5 points in one month. That seems like a lot in a short amount of time.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13509/02/2020

New @QuinnipiacPoll

Biden: 52% (+10) Trump: 42%

Among men Biden: 48% (+1) Trump: 47%

Among women Biden: 56% (+17) Trump: 39%

Among whites Trump: 50% (+4) Biden: 46%

Among Blacks Biden: 83% (+72) Trump: 11%

Among Latinos Biden: 56% (+20) Trump: 36%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13609/02/2020

Because liking or not liking someone doesn't mean you won't vote for them ,r134. Some people vote straight down the party line. Some people dislike the other person more. Etc. You look at most senators and congresspeople and you'll see their approval ratings don't necessarily track with winning an election.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13709/02/2020

So the approval rating has no correlation, and certainly not a useful tool in predicting a winner? Is that your official answer? I’m not sold.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13809/02/2020

R135 for the typical post convention bumps, it's not a lot. Essentially these polls 100% guaranteed he will lose popular vote by much larger margin than even what he lost to Hillary. Trump only hope is to win again in two of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. That's why GOP is putting all their efforts there. with all this "law and order" nonsense, which seem to be a little bit working. BUT they are now in danger of losing Arizona (that's essentially gone now according to all recent polls), and on a very shaky ground in NC, Florida, Ohio, Texas and Georgia.

I say Biden should get aggressive in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. He needs to carry at least three of those. Otherwise, Biden needs NC and/or Florida to compensate the losses..

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 13909/02/2020

“for the typical post convention bumps, it's not a lot“

Got it.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14009/02/2020

The Washington Post has this neat tool where you can fiddle with turn out models. The easiest path to Biden winning seems to be juicing the female vote.

Offsite Link
by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14109/02/2020

R138 I'm not saying it has no correlation, but it's certainly not the end all and be all of indicators that R134 seems to think.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14209/02/2020

Steve Kornacki was saying on msnbc that if Biden keeps staying over 5% ahead of Trump in the national poll average , that gives him better chances to win the EC.

Steve was comparing how a larger than 4-5% advantage in the national poll average matched better odds for Biden in the swing states.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14309/02/2020

I hate the electoral system, meant not to have California, NY, and Texas dominate. BUT THEN these more sparsely populated states (North Carolina, Wisconsin) dominate the whole thing and here are the candidates pandering to them. At least a Texas et al have a lot more people! Taking away from heavily populated states (yes, they’re crowded for a reason- the majority of Americans agree on it) and placing all Wright on so called @swing states” is ridiculous and anti- democratic.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14409/02/2020

Yes r143.

If Biden only wins by 3 points he could easily lose the electoral college, 4 is decent, but the safe zone is him being up by ~5.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14509/02/2020

How is North Carolina dominating?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14609/02/2020

Trump's approval rating is quite stable, as your link shows, R134. It's about 41%-42%. At one point in his administration, during the shut-down, it was about 39%, but every time someone posts "Trump's approval rating is rising" it's always 41%-42%.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14709/02/2020

[quote]How much are the Democrats investing in North Carolina? We are a swing state.

You all need to cure your habit of ticket splitting. Roy Cooper is running 10 points ahead, according to the poll I saw this morning. But the Senate race appears to be tied and Biden was down slightly (if I remember correctly).

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14809/02/2020

There is still this belief that split ticketing some how keeps both sides in check, when in fact it just creates a lot of impediments to progress.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 14909/02/2020

Cunningham is ahead for the most part in latest polling.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15009/02/2020

Biden vs Trump in NC is very close. RCP gave Biden a very slight edge.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15109/02/2020

North Carolina is the the ninth most populous state. It’s a big state, not “sparsely populated.”

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15209/03/2020

NC ticket splits because we like our own Southern Democrats but tend not to like non Southerners who tend to dominate the National Democratic Party. Roy Cooper speaks with a Southern accent and appeals to NC culture, values, and beliefs. In 2008, Obama appealed to southern culture with his visits to NASCAR, quoting Scripture, wearing a cowboy hat, visits to megachurches, “Our God is an awesome God” talk, and visits to state and county fairs. Northeast and Pacific Democrats are gonna have a Herculean task to appeal to NC because of the culture chasm.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15309/03/2020

Trump is a New Yorker who trashes the predominate culture of NYC. He genuflects to southern values and beliefs

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15409/03/2020

Thank you for actually posting a poll, R151. The thread turned into a free-for-all between Concerned Democrats With Much Concern (tm) and people who think they have to rebut every single stupid thing a troll says.

Speaking of trolls and polls, Trump's approval rating has NOT gone "straight up." Per 538 Biden's approval has gone up in recent weeks while Trump's has been plummeting -- the A-rated IBD poll has Trump's approval shows major deterioration in his approval ratings.

[quote]The net 16% disapproval in the September IBD/TIPP Poll reflects deterioration from the prior month's 11% net disapproval, 41%-52%.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15509/03/2020

Trump's highest approval rating was 46% back when he actually gave out small bonuses to help people through the pandemic, then he got bored with that (like he always does) and he's back down to the 43% he's always hovering at.

When the shock of just how bad he was at being president wore off in early 2018 (and when the GOP's "back Trump no matter what" plan fully coalesced) he started hovering around 39% to 43% approval with very little variation.

That's partly why the election polls are so stable. Everyone has already decided what they think about Trump. I am not convinced that any of these "worries" -- Biden doesn't campaign enough, Biden doesn't say enough, Biden doesn't blah blah blah -- will make one bit of difference. The election is entirely about whether we keep Trump or not, and I just don't see his approval rating changing significantly, meaning that he probably doesn't have the support needed to win in November.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15609/03/2020

SO generous, Facebook. A whole week. New ads (only).

Sociopaths.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15709/03/2020

MINNESOTA Biden 48% Trump 45% . #MNsen: Smith (D-inc) 43% Lewis (R) 41%

@HarperPolling/@LewisForMN (R) Internal Poll, LV, 8/30-9/1

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15809/03/2020

I sort of agree with R156. I think the percentage of "could go either way" voters are minimal this time around. I think voters opinions and choices are already locked in. You either want more of the same or not.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 15909/03/2020

PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46% Biden 46%

@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 8/25-27

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16009/03/2020

Good graphics

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16109/03/2020

They haven't updated MN yet.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16209/03/2020

I hope Rasmussen is very wrong

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16309/03/2020

R135 Rasmussen is essentially GOP voter pollster. And also acknowledge that they automatically shave off 4-5% points off Biden's numbers to account for so-called "shy Trump" voters. Hence this is a good and consistent number for Biden.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16409/03/2020

What R164 said is true.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16509/03/2020

Opinion

I’m Doomsday Prepping for the End of Democracy

Even if Trump loses, there’s no guarantee we’ll make it to the other side.

Farhad Manjoo

Sept. 3, 2020

My wife, Helen, and I got into a quarrel the other day about how to plan for America’s bleak future. Our family needs to replace an aging car, but I’ve been hesitant, wary of making any new financial commitments as the nation accelerates into the teeth of political chaos or cataclysm. What if, after the election, we need to make a run for it? Why squander spare cash on a new car?

Helen thinks I’m being alarmist — that I’m LARPing “The Handmaid’s Tale,” nursing some revolutionary fantasy of escape from Gilead. But I think she — like a lot of other white, Gen X native-born Americans who’ve known mostly domestic peace and stability — is being entirely too blasé about the approaching storm.

As an immigrant who escaped to America from apartheid-era South Africa, I feel that I’ve cultivated a sharper appreciation for political trouble. To me, the signs on the American horizon are flashing blood red.

Armed political skirmishes are erupting on the streets, and scholars are tracking a rise in violence and instability as the election draws near. Gun sales keep shattering records. Mercifully, I suppose, there’s a nationwide shortage of ammo. Then there is the pandemic, mass unemployment, natural disasters on every coast, intense racial and partisan polarization, and not a little bit of lockdown-induced collective stir craziness.

There’s also this: Helen skipped the Republican convention. I watched it wall-to-wall, and it drove me to despair. In that four-night celebration of Trumpism, I caught a frightening glimpse of the ugly end of America, an authoritarian cult in full flower, and I am not keen to stick around much longer to see if my terrifying premonition pans out.

I want you to know that I am straining, here, to resist partisan squabbling. There was a lot for a lefty like myself to dislike about the Republican confab, but what shook me was not any particular policy goal but instead the convention’s Peronist aesthetics and the unembarrassed profligacy of lies.

...

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16609/03/2020

...

The convention certainly intensified my worries about a Trump re-election. Unloosed from all checks, a two-term Trump would, I fear, usher in a reign by his clan for long into the future. (Trump has repeatedly “joked” about serving beyond a second term.)

But the Republican convention also quickened my worries about American democracy even in the event that he loses. If Trumpism has charmed a sizable minority of Americans, and if the Trump dynasty retains its mass appeal, will America ever move on? Even if the country can get as far as a peaceful transition of power, can we expect anything like a functioning federal government beyond the inauguration?

In a new book, “Presidents, Populism and the Crisis of Democracy,” the political scientists William G. Howell and Terry M. Moe argue that Trumpism is largely a symptom of growing populist disaffection with the American government’s inability to solve people’s problems. Even if Trump does lose, they argue, our democracy will still face serious questions about its viability. I asked Moe, a professor at Stanford, how America might recover from this damage.

“It’s not clear that we can,” he told me. “I think the Republicans, for now, are an anti-democracy party.” Their only chance of political survival is to continue to “make the country as undemocratic as they can so that they can win elections.”

The party’s complete submission to Trump was on full display at the convention. It adopted a platform that was essentially no new platform other than to “enthusiastically support the president’s America-first agenda.” There was no mention of Obamacare, the repeal of which was once a Republican policy obsession. There wasn’t a single reference to the number of Americans who’ve died from the coronavirus, nor even a passing recognition of the threats of a changing climate.

Instead, we saw a dynastic cult of personality: Of the six convention speakers who spoke for longer than 10 minutes, four were Trumps.

Then there was the blizzard of lies. The convention represented a new low in collective artifice and delusion. These weren’t lies about obscure details or matters of interpretation. These lies cut to the bone and marrow of reality — the rendering in the past tense of a pandemic that is still killing about a thousand Americans a day, or the description of an economy that is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression as roaring on all cylinders. How did the party get low-income New Yorkers to praise Trump? They simply tricked them into participating.

It’s not the lies themselves that worry me most, but the fact that millions of people might accept them. Can America endure such mendacity? When you don’t have social trust, when you don’t have a shared view of reality, do you even have a country?

This week, I asked my Twitter followers if they shared my growing alarm over the state of American democracy. Were they, like me, contemplating the coming unraveling of America?

I was surprised and dismayed to find I was hardly alone. Dozens of people responded saying they worried about the outright rigging of the race, the potential for violence over a disputed election, and the abandonment of democratic norms.

...

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16709/03/2020

...

Nancy Bermeo, an emeritus professor of politics at Princeton who studies the erosion of democracies — what scholars call “democratic backsliding” — told me that she sees some reasons for optimism that American democratic norms may survive Trump. Recent polls show the military is increasingly critical of Trump — a positive sign if you’re worried about extra-democratic power grabs. The United States also still has a free press, and there remains widespread support of the basic ideals of democracy.

Still, there is more than enough reason for alarm. “There’s no doubt that there’s serious democratic backsliding going on,” she told me. “He’s doing things that are reminiscent of authoritarians in much less-developed countries with much shorter histories of competitive politics.”

In looking for reasons for consolation, she added, “I’m grasping for hope.”

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16809/03/2020

Rasmussen’s press release: Dead heat: Trump erases Biden’s 8-point lead in Pennsylvania as blacks abandon Democrat

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 16909/03/2020

I fucking hate Portland's mayor. He's been refusing to clamp down on the Antifa shit for years now.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17009/03/2020

He needs to be replaced

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17109/03/2020

If the Rasmussen headline at R169 is true, I'm pissed.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17209/03/2020

You're linking to the Examiner?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17309/03/2020

Rasmussen is a C+ pollster r172, their track record is terrible.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17409/03/2020

Rasmussen is paid to give the GOP the ability to fund raise by "proving" they still have a chance

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17509/03/2020

"Democrats need to energize the Black vote. They need to energize young voters."

"I MUST be a Black woman. The Democrats OWE them representation on the national ticket."

"Democrats just aren't speaking to LatinX voters. They're not reaching out in a meaningful way."

"Independent white middle-class voters in the Midwest were going to vote for Trump anyway."

Morons. You dummies.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17609/03/2020

Even in the face of this white middle-class backlash shit, Dems will STILL refuse a white male ticket in 2024. If there even is a 2024 election. Because "representation" and "energizing the base" and because "they need to REACH OUT and SPEAK TO XYZ".

Half of you: "Trump will be removed from office by January. The Senate will be forced by public outrage to vote to remove him." "Biden's obviously going to win."

You don't know this country. You live in your bubble. The nation is irrational, selfish, hateful, and gullible.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17709/03/2020

Portland mayor Ted Wheeler is James Comey 2.0.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17809/03/2020

Rasmussen always has Trump approval at anywhere from 5-10 points above anybody else. I don't take them seriously.

Trump's average approval is always 40-43 percent. It occasionally sinks and hits the bottom, then, like clockwork, rises again. Then sinks again.

I don't bother paying attention to it unless it goes over 43.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 17909/03/2020

Rasmussen is an obvious Republican front. However, his polls create the narrative that Trump is surging, and in this case, doing well with African-Americans.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18009/03/2020

[quote]#MNsen: Smith (D-inc) 43% Lewis (R) 41%

Uh, what's up with this, Minnesota? Since when has Tina Smith been unpopular?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18109/03/2020

Nearly 100 GOP, Independent officials launch group backing Biden.

More Republicans, including several high-profile former governors, came out Thursday in favor of the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

In a press release Thursday morning, the newly-formed group deemed "Republicans and Independents for Biden" said its "sole mission" is to defeat Trump and help get Biden elected.

High-profile members include former NJ Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, former MI Gov. Rick Snyder and former MA Gov. Bill Weld.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18209/03/2020

Read the comments.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18309/03/2020

PA average.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18409/03/2020

Never read comments

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18509/03/2020

Why not?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18609/03/2020

New Monmouth Poll of NC

NORTH CAROLINA VOTER POLL: #GeneralElection (RV)

PRESIDENT

47% @JoeBiden

45% @realDonaldTrump

US SENATE

46% @CalforNC Cunningham

45% @ThomTillis

GOVERNOR

51% @RoyCooperNC

40% @DanForestNC

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18709/03/2020

[quote] Rasmussen is an obvious Republican front. However, his polls create the narrative that Trump is surging, and in this case, doing well with African-Americans.

He and Yougov were the only two polls to call the 2016 election correctly.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18809/03/2020

Thats a good poll by Monmouth from NC.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 18909/03/2020

[quote] Rasmussen is a C+ pollster [R172], their track record is terrible.

Yet they called 2016 election correctly. In fact they were one of only two companies to call it right.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19009/03/2020

R190 that's factually incorrect. They did not predict election correctly. They are wildly inconsistent from election to election. In 2018, their polls were so bad, predicting GOP narrow in for the House and were off by a whopping 8% points, they got dinged to C rating. Also there are two different Rasmussens, as the original pollster split.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19109/03/2020

R191...

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19209/03/2020

Your own link shows that ABC and Fox News were more accurate r192.

Also you can't cherry pick one election. Pollster ratings are based on how accurate a pollster is for every election they have polled, and Rasmussens track record is bad. It's just a fact.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19309/03/2020

Democrats need to take note: whatever Roy Cooper is doing works with voters in the Old North State. The man is kicking ass, while other Dems are struggling.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19409/03/2020

Nate Cohn.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19509/03/2020

538 today.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19609/03/2020

Biden needs to visit the key states a lot. PA especially right now.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19709/03/2020

[quote]Democrats need to take note: whatever Roy Cooper is doing works with voters in the Old North State. The man is kicking ass, while other Dems are struggling.

The politics are different and would probably not work on a national level for Democrats.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19809/03/2020

Biden gets good polls in Arizona and Wisconsin — and a bad one in Pennsylvania.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 19909/03/2020

Massachusetts and Maryland are blue states with popular Republican governors.

Local politics and national politics can work differently.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20009/03/2020

Well, speaking of Pennsylvania. This is Quinnipiac (A much more consistent pollster compared to Rassmussen) today: Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a clear 8-point lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20109/03/2020

R201, thanks. With that included in the forecast, Biden is up 4.1%.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20209/03/2020

It looks like the stock market is hitting the skids as well as other anemic economic outlook so that should push things in Biden’s favor.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20309/03/2020

Biden narrowly ahead in Florida in new Quinnipiac poll The poll found Biden with the support of 48 percent of likely voters in Florida, while Trump trails with 45 percent. Neither candidate enjoys overwhelming favorability in the state, however. Forty-one percent of respondents reported a favorable opinion of Biden compared to 46 percent who view him unfavorably. Trump received similar reviews from Florida voters, with 44 percent saying they view him favorably to 49 percent who view him unfavorably.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20409/03/2020

R204, watch the both-sides media turn the favorability data into "Both Trump and Biden are, overall, disliked by the electorate."

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20509/03/2020

LOSER!!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20609/03/2020

Anyone here watching Biden's speech from Kenosha?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20709/03/2020

I am.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20809/03/2020

Is it good?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 20909/03/2020

No comment, r209.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21009/03/2020

North Carolina Governor GE: Roy Cooper (D-inc) 51% (+11) Dan Forest (R) 40% Steven DiFiore (L) 3% Al Pisano (C) 1%

@MonmouthPoll, RV, 8/29-9/1

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21109/03/2020

Anyone thinks Pennsylvania isn't a problem... This reporter, in blue Pittsburgh, just happily live tweeted Trump's rally in Latrobe. No lie went unchallenged.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21209/03/2020

David Brooks

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21309/03/2020

I don’t see Biden winning PA.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21409/03/2020

There is such a huge backlash against Dems in Philly. Trump could win there as well. Biden should still try to win PA but I’d venture to bet it’s a lost cause.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21509/03/2020

[quote] "Both Trump and Biden are, overall, disliked by the electorate."

Unfortunately they are. This is Hillary vs Trump again. Biden and a Trump have low approvals, high negative ratings. I really don’t think any Democrat would be doing better at this point. A fringe candidate could have been put up like Sanders and that would have excited a segment of the left but would have turned off the majority of Democratic voters and certainly the majority of the electorate.

As many writers pointed out four years ago, Democrats had no plan B if Clinton lost. That’s a big part of the problem. The candidates who do seem to have potential are just too new and the old establishment refuses to die off.

If Biden loses, Democrats need to start grooming candidates immediately for a 2024 run and no one over 60.

I think the Bernie side of the party is done with Democrats regardless. They know that if Biden loses the result is not going to be the Dems shifting leftward. The party will shift centrist. That will be the takeaway unlike 2016 where they were able to push the line, “If Bernie had gotten the nomination he would have won.” Bernie’s supporters didn’t even show up to the polls to vote for him and Sanders has all but given up on the them and has thrown his support behind Biden. I think they’ll go Green or stay with the AOC, Tlaib wing of the party causing trouble.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21609/03/2020

Russian Trolls begone

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21709/03/2020

Biden isn't hated by the electorate. The difference between Biden and Trump is Trump has cult followers, don't mistake that for Biden being disliked.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21809/03/2020

WISCONSIN Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42%

@MorningConsult Tracking Poll, LV, 8/24-9/2

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 21909/03/2020

This poll showing a major Trump surge this week: National GE: Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 51% (+7) Republicans 44%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 8/27-9/2

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22009/03/2020

FLORIDA Biden 48% (+3) Trump 45%

@QuinnipiacPoll, LV, 8/28-9/1

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22109/03/2020

[quote] This poll showing a major Trump surge this week: National GE: Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 51% (+7) Republicans 44%

Oh yes that’s quite a “surge” for TRUMP. (???)

This Atlantic story will no doubt “catapult” Trump into the high 30s.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22209/03/2020

This never stops being incredibly painful, triggering, and it rips off new layers of grief that wreak havoc on my life. I wouldn't wish any of it on my worst enemy. I truly pray for peace for my family, our grief, and for this country.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22309/03/2020

I'm confident I have better sources within this White House than @JeffreyGoldberg , and I expect that upon investigation his anonymously sourced story will live up to the quality we can expect from The Atlantic under his leadership.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22409/03/2020

Ooops--sorry about R223/R224. Wrong thread.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22509/03/2020

The AP already confirmed it. What more do you want?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22609/03/2020

Ben Domenech is a soulless ghoul. He knows what Trump said about John McCain. Fucking Federalist scum.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22709/03/2020

Goldberg was beating the drum for the US to invade Iraq....

In 2002, Goldberg's "The Great Terror" published in The New Yorker argued that the threat posed to America by Saddam Hussein was significant, discussing the possible connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda as well as the Iraqi nuclear program, averring that there was "some debate among arms-control experts about exactly when Saddam will have nuclear capabilities. But there is no disagreement that Iraq, if unchecked, will have them soon ... There is little doubt what Saddam might do with an atomic bomb or with his stocks of biological and chemical weapons."[23]

In a late 2002 debate in Slate on the question "Should the U.S. invade Iraq?", Goldberg argued in favor of an invasion on a moral basis, writing, "So: Saddam Hussein is uniquely evil, the only ruler in power today—and the first one since Hitler—to commit chemical genocide. Is that enough of a reason to remove him from power? I would say yes, if 'never again' is in fact actually to mean 'never again.'"[75]

Glenn Greenwald called Goldberg "one of the leading media cheerleaders for the attack on Iraq", claiming Goldberg had "compiled a record of humiliating falsehood-dissemination in the run-up to the war that rivaled Judy Miller's both in terms of recklessness and destructive impact."[76] In 2008, in an article in Slate entitled "How Did I Get Iraq Wrong?", Goldberg explained the reasons behind his initial support of the Iraq War and wrote that he "didn't realize how incompetent the Bush administration could be."[77]

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22809/03/2020

Dataloungers...

Democratic incumbent, Conor Lamb, isn't doing so well against Trump endorsed candidate, Sean Parnell

Parnell has out raised Lamb and has been hitting Western PA hard with ads. Parnell was one of the featured speakers at Trump's Latrobe rally tonight.

If you can, please donate to Lamb so we don't go back to another fucktard Republican out here.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 22909/03/2020

Not sure why the Conor Lamb link isn't working in the above...

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23009/03/2020

#Florida Among

White Voters: Trump 53% (-11 vs 2016 results) Biden 44% (+12)

Black Voters: Biden 85% (+1) Trump 8% (-)

@QuinnipiacPoll

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23109/03/2020

R228, why do you think any of that’s relevant?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23209/03/2020

I dont understand how all these white people can actually vote for Dump. I'm white and I would never vote for this racist, lying piece of shit. Even the dumpest redneck must know now what a horrible dishonest man he is and that he's trying to destroy our country and democracy.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23309/03/2020

R232, consider these source. Both writers are jackasses.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23409/03/2020

R233, it’s white fear over the rioting, not to mention that the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation, etc. Whites feel alienated by the left. It’s not just an American thing either. This is happening globally and has helped given rise to far-Right leaders.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23509/03/2020

He has multiple sources, as does the AP writer. Doesn’t matter what they wrote about Iraq 18 years ago.

Ad hominem attacks of the messenger are irrational.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23609/03/2020

Happy to block R228, a troll running damage control for Trump.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23709/03/2020

Quinnipiac Penn B 52-Dotard 44

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23809/03/2020

Sara Gideon, everyone. Get Susan Collins out of the Senate.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 23909/03/2020

Mark Kelly. Send Martha McSally back to Arizona.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24009/03/2020

John Hickenlooper for Senate. Retire Cory Gardner. Colorado.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24109/03/2020

Senate races here.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24209/03/2020

Keep an eye on Al Gross in Alaska, it's a longshot but Alaska seems to be moving left over the last decade.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24309/03/2020

[quote]the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

Very few Democratic candidates, with some local exceptions, are talking about any of those issues.

I'm tired of people like you seeing LeftBluePunditMax69 on Twitter saying "Reparations now!" and then pretending like Biden has endorsed the idea of reparations, which Is Why Trump Will Win. Just come off it.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24409/04/2020

[quote]This is Hillary vs Trump again.

It absolutely is not. Biden has repeatedly outperformed HRC in polls this year, compared to her standing at the same times in 2016. And as we saw in the primaries, once Bernie had someone besides HRC to run against, his support fell dramatically.

From 538: "...even at her post-convention peak, Clinton’s lead over Trump still wasn’t as large as Biden’s is now."

The 2016 election was more about keeping that uppity broad out of the White House than anything else. That's obvious.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24509/04/2020

[quote]the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

Actually, it's the republicans who keep talking about that shit. Republicans always try to "Wilile Horton" white people. But it's becoming more and more difficult. Yes, you may hear a few Bernie Bros and AOC types and the progressives talking about those issues to energize their base, but these are not major talking points for mainstream democrats.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24609/04/2020

There are a few trolls on this thread, including r228. Blocking them is so nice!!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24709/04/2020

[quote] the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

It's the progressives who talk about this, particularly younger ones. It's children, basically. I regularly read a K-pop forum for English-speaking fans, and it's all about that stuff.

Mainstream Dems don't care about that stuff, but Fox et al like to conflate them with the progressive children (e.g., BLM, college kids and their weird curricula, etc.).

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24809/04/2020

Mainstream Democrats need to seize the narrative from the radical leftist. After all, many leftists are even Democrats.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 24909/04/2020

#NEW Florida Poll

Trump 49% (+3) Biden 46% 3rd Party 3%

@trafalgar_group

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25009/04/2020

Florida will be close just like 4 years ago. Ditto for Pennsylvania. That's almost the whole election right there. If Trump wins them both, we get him for 4 more years even if Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million votes.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25109/04/2020

Florida is the state come election night. They should report fairly early.

If Biden wins, game over, great night. If Trump wins, it's going to be stressful and we might now know who won the election for a few days.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25209/04/2020

Does anyone have faith that DeathSantis would allow Florida to go for Biden, regardless of the the actual totals? Anyone?

I don't

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25309/04/2020

I would count out FL and just aim for the swing states that are run by Dem governors: MI, MN, WI, PA. Even NC has a Dem governor: I'd bet it's more likely than FL (but NC is still kind of far from likely).

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25409/04/2020

Biden back to 71% likely.

Look at the maps at the start of the page: I think one of the first 4 blue maps is most likely for Biden, but all seem hard. That said, it's like you can ignore the West except for AZ, which is iffy (though he's ahead for now).

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25509/04/2020

Oh gosh. He and his belief in that failed election outcome model. ⬆️🙄

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25609/04/2020

AZ looks good for now. Always still too close for me, however. I really hope they stop with the TX and GA stuff, and pay attention to AZ, WI, MI, MN, PA, and NC.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25709/04/2020

Debate prep article.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25809/04/2020

After wild week, the Trump train looks close to full derailment

Stephen Collinson Profile

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 8:53 AM ET, Fri September 4, 2020

/2020/09/04/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-election-2020-drama/index.html after the .com

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 25909/04/2020

I’m Too anxious to watch the debates

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26009/04/2020

R260, same here, but I'm 75% sure I'm going to do it anyway. I was thinking of taking sleeping pills and going to bed early that evening; very early (6:30) since I'm on the West coast.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26109/04/2020

Nate Silver: Given rapid improvement in many economic indicators, and fairly high approval for Trump on the economy, the idea that Trump is doomed to lose because of the economy seems pretty miscast at this point. It really might be a *comparative* strength of his.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26209/04/2020

Yeah, the COVID numbers are declining to some extent, and the economy does seem to be springing back. I wonder how Labor Day gatherings will impact things. From the Times's homepage today:

New cases 45,601 -12%

New deaths 1,078 -14%

(-12%, -14% = 14-day change)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26309/04/2020

This is why those who Have been saying the election will be based on COVID-19 really have no idea how politics works

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26409/04/2020

I hope the Biden campaign sees that there's not much slack among independent moderates, and that they need to do what they can to rein-in the protests and dampen-down the structural racism talk. Harris it the VP pick; they've been laying the race stuff a bit thick since at least the convention.

With their lies and whatever October surprise Trump and Barr have in store for the Biden campaign, there really is very little slack; things could turn against Biden quickly, unfortunately.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26509/04/2020

By November, we will be in the midst of flu season, you just wait. A bit premature to say that things are improving. Also, the states are now "changing" they way data is reported. Just look at the Florida shenanigans.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26609/04/2020

But many people are voting in the next four weeks

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26709/04/2020

The earliest voting starts in about two weeks.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26809/04/2020

NC just sent ballots out

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 26909/04/2020

For those voting early, nothing has improved and will improve in the next 2 months. We are still in the midst of pandemic and will be through the Fall and Winter.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27009/04/2020

That’s true, but Trump is great at creating alternative realties

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27109/04/2020

[quote]Yeah, the COVID numbers are declining to some extent

The model the WH uses projects that the number of deaths will more than double in the next four months. That's the optimistic projection. The gloomy forecast is 620,000 deaths by the end of the year. Lower numbers *this week* mean nothing.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27209/04/2020

If the media, medical experts, Democrats are able to counter Trump’s distractions, magic vaccine hype, and Denial that COVID is still a major threat

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27309/04/2020

#MISen Poll:

Peters (D-inc) 47% James (R) 46%

@tarrancegroup/@JohnJamesMI (R) Internal (9/1-3)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27409/04/2020

Biden can hardly contain his exasperation at how ludicrous and crude Trump is, but he’s doing a pretty good job of condemning him for his outrageous statements. It’s like calling out that the emperor has no clothes. Trump looks petty and frivolous in comparison with his rally comedy and wildly optimistic predictions about CoVid and the economy.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27509/04/2020

New ABC/Ipsos poll:

“Between the two candidates, more Americans trust Biden over Trump to keep the country safe, 55%-42%; to keep their families safe, 56%-42%...to reduce violence in the country, 59%-39%.”

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27609/04/2020

Trump campaign going dark in Arizona, cancels planned TV blitz

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is going off Arizona airwaves after the Labor Day holiday, and may not resume television advertising in the Grand Canyon State until early voting begins in early October.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27709/05/2020

R275, I watched Biden yesterday (Friday, September 4) and when describing Trump he said, “He’s a frauD.” He emphasized the “D.” I watched his event and he spoke Very. Plainly. about what a faker Trump is. I’ve never heard a politician talk so plainly. But he had no rancor, it was more, “I can’t believe Trump did X. How could anyone do that.” He was calmly bringing skepticism back into the minds of those on the fence.

He was asked why he didn’t speak more angrily about Trump’s comments about veterans, and he said that someone had given him a little star charm they had made in memorial to Beau’s service, and he always carried it around. He said he left that charm at home because he thought carrying it would make him too mad to speak calmly. He said he thought it was unpresidential to go off like Trump did and he wasn’t going to do it.

But one thing he said was, “Beau wasn’t a LOSER.” And he said the others that gave their lives weren’t losers. His words were calm, but his tone of voice was very firm. It was like, “oh no you don’t.”

I agree, he really does sound like he’s saying, the emperor has no clothes. He talks so calmly but plainly. A moron could understand him.

Pete Buttigieg also was on Fox yesterday. What a good choice. He has military service and he appeared on Fox when he was running for President and other candidates wouldn’t. He went on there and he is so smart about how to answer questions there. He never just attacks, he always says to the viewer, what do YOU think when somebody does this. Is this okay with you? He said, you have a choice. You can be a John McCain Republican or a Trump Republican. He was asked, do you believe Trump said this? He said, Fox verified it so I believe it. There were tweets saying Fox was trying to discredit their own fact checkers, but he gave confidence to their work. I really wish he could have been the VP candidate, or Duckworth. But Pete speaks so calmly and sincerely, it’s really hard to find offense with him. He is not polarizing at all.

Poll Troll, it sounds like Trump is low on money. He supposedly pulled in around $90 million to Biden's $364 million last month. They’re both spending as fast as they can pull it in. Trump is doing badly in AZ in large part because of Mark Kelly. Biden could win on Kelly’s coattails.

A lot of Californians have moved to Phoenix for housing and cost of living so it’s gradually changing there. But there are a lot of really rabid Republicans there too. The underlying infrastructure includes some very extreme right wingers. I went last year and there were large handmade signs along the highway praising God and Trump on people’s private property overlooking the highway in northern AZ. It’s my understanding that Republicans looking for remote places to live choose small towns in Arizona because they’re so conservative. That may eventually turn out like Nevada did - big city is solid Dem, remote outskirts are sparsely populated and Republican. The D’s eventually outnumbered the R’s.

It’s fascinating to me that Trump is doing badly there. That’s a real sea change for them.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27809/05/2020

I am in Arizona and stunned by the changes. It actually seems sudden really when you consider Trump beat Hillary by about 4 Per cent in 2016. While not liking McSally myself I am unsure why she has became so unpopular. She just seems like another republican to me. Anyway, I will be happy to see what happens on election day and welcome the change. So many people here are from somewhere else and Maricopa county is growing quickly.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 27909/05/2020

Thanks, r278... great post!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28009/05/2020

BREAKING: Mayor Pete Just Joined Joe Biden's Transition Team

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28109/05/2020

BREAKING: @FLSecofState releases new #VoteByMail #'s:

@FlaDems: 2,228,122 @FloridaGOP: 1,510,358

In 2016: Dems had 8,800 vote margin, lost by 112,000 votes In 2018: Dems had 48,000 vote margin, lost by 10,000 votes

Today, @FlaDems have 717,000 vote margin

#VoteThemOut #FlaPol

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28209/05/2020

Great news, r282! Now if we can just keep Desantos from pulling crooked shit in November.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28309/05/2020

North Carolina update?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28409/05/2020

National GE: Biden 50% (+13) Trump 37%

@UofMaryland, Adults, 8/24-28

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28509/05/2020

Nate Silver:

Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28609/05/2020

59 days feels like an eternity.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28709/05/2020

Biden probably needs to win by 4+ point because of the EC.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28809/05/2020

NEW MEXICO If the election for president were held today ...

Trump 39% Biden 54%

(Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc., LV, 8/26 - 9/2/20)

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 28909/05/2020

Ben Wikler: I never thought I’d write this, but I’d like to personally thank Ted Cruz for helping drive the biggest fundraising day of the cycle for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29009/05/2020

Thank you, r282!

Makes those 500 postcards I sent to Florida for Vote By Mail worth the hand cramps and stuff fingers.

We've been writing this postcards steadily since 2018. I've written 500 since January.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29109/05/2020

CBS/Yougov Poll, SEP 2-4, 2020, (likely voters) Wiscosnin: Biden 50% Trump 44%, Biden +6 National: Biden 52% Trump42% Biden +10

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29209/06/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden's lead over Trump has, since January, been steadier than any prez candidate's in any campaign since 1940. It's only rivaled by Obama 2012, and unlike that campaign, the GOP candidate this year is pretty never leading in any polling this year.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29309/06/2020

A freakin *Rasmussen* poll has Biden leading big in Wisconsin.

#Wisconsin:

#Biden 51%

#Trump 43%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29409/07/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29509/07/2020

New poll shows a tie in Florida, where unfortunately Biden continues to lag with the Cuban population there.

New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida:

Biden 48%

Trump 48%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29609/08/2020

I think under normal circumstances, Biden wouldn't have any problem winning Florida. But with the loathsome Desantis in charge, I highly doubt it.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29709/08/2020

Biden needs to win Florida.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29809/08/2020

It would be very nice to win Florida (and it would make election night less stressful since Florida is expected to be called fairly early), but Florida is not a must win for Biden r298.

It is a must win for Trump, if Biden wins Florida you can turn off your TV and go to bed, Trump has no path to victory without it.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 29909/08/2020

I don't want to stereotype, but aren't Cuban-Americans traditionally republican and more conservative than other Hispanics?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30009/08/2020

Based on today's set os state polling, Michigan seems out of reach now for Trump and so are Wisconsin and Arizona. Pennsylvania and Minnesota are very tight and could go either way. And Trump MUST win Florida. Texas, NC and Ohio are also need to be defended by Trump as all polls are within margin of error. Not a good position to be in after Labor Day. I doubt even much teased vaccine announcement could help a lot.

Still I think Biden should be non stop campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio, NC and Florida. As just taking one of them will seal the deal.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30109/08/2020

One of the billing clerk's in my office is Latina. She voted for Obama both terms but I was astounded to learn that she voted for Trump in 2016. She's the epitome of a "quiet" Trump supporter which may have been, at least in part, due to the fact that I'm very vocal about my political preferences.

Before Covid-19 hit, she told me at dinner that she now understands her parents, who are staunch Republicans. "Everybody wants 'free stuff' and no one wants to work anymore," she said. Her younger brother, who was a big Hillary supporter and now supports Biden, told me that a lot of forty-plus Latin folks see becoming Republicans as synonymous with, for lack of a better phrase, as becoming more "white" and less ethnic.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30209/08/2020

r302 is just the same white, male, incel Boris pretending to be everyone else embracing Shitler on DL.

Hispanics will all be deported and locked up for violent crimes they didn't commit but Trump believes they did.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30309/08/2020

Donald Trump's convention bounce has evaporated in Ohio.

9/8/20 Rasmussen:

BIDEN: 49%

TRUMP: 45%

In every swing state, we're seeing a reversion to Joe Biden. Reality is sinking back in now and the dirt on Donald Trump just gets more despicable.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30409/08/2020

Trump has been to NC thrice in the last several days

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30509/08/2020

Trump's job approval in Florida is 48. It rarely exceeds 42, 43 in any national polling.

Just another punch to the gut reminder that this will be won or lost in a handful of swing states that Trump won before. And where he often outpolls the national.

Keep fighting!!

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30609/08/2020

It's a good thing that Florida's polls are reverting to Biden again, too.

Trump can forget about the popular vote or Pennsylvania.

And look what all that "Law and Order" rhetoric and state invasions did for him in Wisconsin:

BIDEN'S OPENED UP A 6 - 8% LEAD!

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30709/08/2020

R307, it’s good to be optimistic, but foolish to proclaim we are gonna win PA or any other swing state 55 days before the election. We have to work with the awareness Trump will do absolutely anything to win, include suppress the vote, lie, October Surprising, and steal. It is working far too well among too many Floridians and key voter groups. We are in the fight of our lives

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30809/08/2020

In Ohio, early voting begins the first week in October. I'm sure other states will as well so the election is only about 30 days away.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 30909/08/2020

It's hard to know what to make of the Rasmussen poll because Rasmussen is such an unreliable pollster and usually has a strong Republican lean. In theory a Rasmussen poll showing Biden ahead should be good news for Biden but until we get further polling data we have to be cautious about how we interpret any Rasmussen poll.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31009/08/2020

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Marist College

Biden +9

Biden (53%)

Trump (44%)

[771 Likely Voters, Aug 31-Sep 7, 2020]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31109/09/2020

All today's battleground state polls look promising for Biden. PA: +9 by Marist; +5 by MC; +4 by CR WI: +8 by MC; +5 by CR Michigan: +10 by MC; +6 by CR Minnesota: +5 by MC Florida:+5 by MC; +3 by CR Arizona: +3 by MC; +4 by CR Ties or within margins of error in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and NC.

The national polls also shifting towards Biden and gap is increasing.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31209/09/2020

As the formatting of r312 makes it a but hard to read I'll help them out.

Morning Consult isn't a great pollster, but its still nice to see.

NEW @MorningConsult Poll

MICHIGAN

Biden 52% (+10)

Trump 42%

WISCONSIN

Biden 51% (+8)

Trump 43%

MINNESOTA

Biden 49% (+5)

Trump 44%

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

FLORIDA

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

ARIZONA

Biden 49% (+3)

Trump 46%

NORTH CAROLINA

Biden 48% (+1)

Trump 47%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31309/09/2020

[quote]R302 is just the same white, male, incel Boris pretending to be everyone else embracing Shitler on DL. Hispanics will all be deported and locked up for violent crimes they didn't commit but Trump believes they did.

WTF does this mean, R302?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31409/09/2020

Maine Supreme Court rules that ranked choice ballots will proceed in the Presidential race.

If Maine's 2nd Congressional District is close, it could flip to Biden in a run-off. Time will tell.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31509/09/2020

Nice poll for Biden..

SurveyUSA (A rating) poll of Minnesota

Biden 49% (+9)

Trump 40%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31609/09/2020

Harry Enten:

Another day off the calendar, and another day where Trump was on the defensive in a news cycle. We're now inside of 55 days from the election, and Biden leads by 8 nationally and by 5+ in enough states to total 270+ electoral votes.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31709/09/2020

While I love that, poll troll, you know what I say:

VOTE ANYWAY!

Let's hand that malignant narcissist an ass kicking he will NEVER FORGET!

Make that bitch cry like the sniveling punk he is.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31809/09/2020

New poll from Monmouth:

Biden leads by 9 points among Registered voters and 7 points among Likely voters.

Trump's statements about the military have not impacted the race, but Biden is seen as more respectful of American troops.

Biden’s positive rating is up from August, while Trump’s has not moved.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 31909/10/2020

Sept. 10, 2020

Biden now at 75% chance of winning:

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32009/10/2020

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

09/10/2020

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32109/10/2020

[quote] Joe Biden, informed by a firefighter that on his last visit he had promised to bring beer, pulls out a six-pack of Iron City and starts handing them out

[quote] Biden here says that he had last visited them in 2014. It was actually 2012. so his staff had prepared for something he said to the Shanksville Volunteer Fire Department eight years earlier (and in PA, a state where getting beer is not exactly a last-minute's notice deal)

[quote] ...his staff remembered a promise from 2012 and brought beer for them. THIS is how competent staff work. Trump's staff don't do the advance work, don't brief him, etc. since the beginning in 2017. We CAN have detail oriented competence again. #BidenHarris2020

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32209/11/2020

From CNN

(CNN)With 53 days left before voters decide his political fate, there were stirrings Thursday that suggest the political freefall President Donald Trump has been in for months has not only ended, but that the Electoral College landscape may be starting to move back in his direction, ever so slightly.

The big news came out of the Cook Political Report, one of the preeminent political handicapping services in the country, which moved two states -- Florida and Nevada -- in the President's direction. Florida moved from "lean Democrat" to "Toss Up," while Nevada went from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat."

"Biden's Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump," wrote Cook's Amy Walter of the moves. "Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead."

Also on Thursday, The Economist updated its electoral model, writing this:

"In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November's presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Donald Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has clawed back a sizeable chunk of support."

All of which leads us to the question: Are we seeing the stirring of an actual Trump comeback? Or is the movement effectively a dead-cat bounce rather than a sign of an actual increased chance for Trump to beat former Vice President Joe Biden on November 3? That question is difficult to answer with any sort of certainty for a few reasons -- most notably that we are still 53 days from the election. And we are still in the grips of a pandemic that is projected to kill more than 400,000 Americans by the end of the year. And in the middle of a national conversation about race that has sparked protests -- peaceful and violent -- across the country. And with the least predictable or traditional person in the White House in modern American history.

In short: The last two-ish months before an election are always chaotic and somewhat unpredictable. That goes quadruple for this election.

But simply because we can't say anything definitive doesn't mean there's nothing to see here. And what these latest stirrings in the electoral map look like are a sort of return to normalcy in the electorate as opposed to any major movement in Trump's favor. Think of if this way: The electorate is like a rubber band. The dual summer crises of the death of George Floyd and the mounting death toll in the United States from coronavirus stretched that rubber band heavily in Biden's direction as voters rapidly lost confidence in the President's ability to effectively deal with the pandemic and/or direct a serious national dialogue about race and policing. All that's happened in the last month or so is that the rubber band has returned slightly closer to its normal level of tension. It hasn't begun to be stretched in Trump's direction and, in fact, it still is more in Biden's favor, although slightly less so than, say, two months ago.

Consider that while Cook's ratings changes narrow Biden's Electoral College lead, even with Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) back in "Toss Up," Biden has 279 electoral votes in their projections. Which is nine more than he needs to be elected in November. And that while The Economist's model now gives Trump a better chance of winning than it did this summer, G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist who wrote the piece about the latest projections, noted this on Twitter: "Context is key tho. We give Trump less than half the chance we would have at this point in 16 if we ran the same model. The last 2 weeks (post-convention) are typically the incumbent's best of the cycle—yet polls moved modestly, if at all, and POTUS's odds are only 3 pts better."

And there's this: Biden's lead in national polling has remained steady for months. At the moment, the CNN poll of polls pegs Biden at 51% and Trump at 43%.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32309/11/2020

Continued:

Given the deep polarization in the country -- Trump is, according to Gallup, the most polarizing president in American history -- some regression to the mean, electorally speaking, seems somewhat inevitable as Election Day draws closer. We are not a country at the moment in which a presidential candidate of either party is likely to score a massive victory.

That's not to say that Trump can't win. He absolutely can. But it is to say that he, despite some recent movement in places like Florida and Nevada (and even Pennsylvania) in his favor, remains a clear underdog to beat Biden to 270 electoral votes. Still.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32409/11/2020

New polls this morning from NYT/Siena:

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*: +5 Biden

*MINNESOTA*: +9 Biden

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*: +3 Biden

*NEVADA*: +4 Biden

[Poll conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 11]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32509/12/2020

Harry Enten:

This is a HUGE difference with 2016. Biden's net favorability is... actually positive. Clinton's was down in the dumps negative.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32609/12/2020

CBS/YouGov

September 13, 2020

*ARIZONA* (Biden +3)

*MINNESOTA* (Biden +9)

[Likely Voters, Sep 9-11, 2020]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32709/13/2020

What are all my links "rejected" by DL?

WTF?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32809/13/2020

Harry Enten:

Biden 2020 vs Clinton 2016 as of September 14:

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 32909/14/2020

*ARIZONA*

OH Predictive Insights

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

[600 Likely Voters, Sep 8-10, 2020]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 33009/14/2020

Young Latin men inching toward Trump.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 33109/14/2020

[quote] Today, Harlem celebrated a gem of the community, Ms. Katie Nichson, on her 100th birthday. Let’s all honor her birthday wish

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 332Last Tuesday at 5:31 AM

A colleague's ex-wife teaches political science at UCF in Orlando, Florida, and she claims that Latins are going to give Florida to Trump. She says that his Latin support is huge in the state, even among well educated Latins.

I can't believe that a minority that Democrats used to have in the bag are going for that fat orange fuck.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 333Last Tuesday at 6:04 AM

The Latino demographic isn't a monolith. There are Cuban immigrants that have been here a few generations, recent immigrants from Mexico and Central America, lots from Puerto Rico and Colombia. They all have different voting patterns.

I would hope you're translating her information poorly R333, because if she's a polisci prof saying "The Latins are gonna give Florida to Trump" then she's terrible at her job.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 334Last Tuesday at 6:13 AM

I keep remembering the statistics about the Latino vote going way up for both Reagan and W in their second elections. It makes me think there's a historical precedent for the demographic voting for the incumbent.

Even then, the worst Latino turnout for Democrats was still 18 points above the Republican, so I can't see the Latino vote swinging so far toward Trump that they'll suddenly drop into the negative numbers for Dems. That just doesn't seem plausible.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 335Last Tuesday at 6:15 AM

Also, Latinos (particularly younger) don't show up on the election day. Hence why Dems had difficulty inching those wins in Floridas and Arizonas. I doubt they get more active now voting for GOP.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 336Last Tuesday at 7:00 AM

[quote]Latinos (particularly younger) don't show up on the election day.

That was another point that she mentioned.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 337Last Tuesday at 8:56 AM

TODAY'S MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL from FLORIDA: Biden +5 LV

In relation to Latino voters, they have this to say: “Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 338Last Tuesday at 9:08 AM

R338, the Monmouth poll showing Biden +5 with Likely Voters in Florida is good news for Biden. He's had some disappointing numbers lately in other FL polls, but that one could put him back on track in FL.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 339Last Tuesday at 10:52 AM

Meanwhile, today's CNN polls also have good numbers for Biden in Wisconsin and North Carolina:

*WISCONSIN* (Biden +10) Likely Voters

*NORTH CAROLINA* (Biden +3) Likely Voters

[Poll conducted Sep 9-13, 2020]

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 340Last Tuesday at 10:55 AM

Hopefully that bloomberg $$ in Florida will target those young Latino voters to actually VOTE.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 341Last Tuesday at 12:29 PM

*VIRGINIA*

Virginia Commonwealth University

Biden +14

Biden (53%)

Trump (39%)

[693 Likely Voters, Aug 28-Sep 7, 2020]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 342Last Tuesday at 3:22 PM

ABC/WP poll

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (52)

Trump (46)

*

*MINNESOTA*

Biden (57)

Trump (41)

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 343Last Tuesday at 11:30 PM

We have received a ton of polling out of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Biden is definitely ahead right now.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 344Last Wednesday at 4:49 AM

National Poll YouGov/Economist

Biden 51% (+9)

Trump 42%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 345Last Wednesday at 8:56 AM

QUINNIPIAC POLL:

Maine Senate

Sara Gideon (D) 54% > Susan Collins (R) 42%

South Carolina Senate

Lindsey Graham (R) 48% = Jaime Harrison (D) 48%

Kentucky Senate

Mitch McConnell (R) 53% > Amy McGrath 41%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 346Last Wednesday at 10:28 AM

I gave to Amy McGrath even though I figure McConnell is impossible to dislodge, but now I'm going to give to Jaime Harrison. Dare I dream that he could beat Miss Lindsey?

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 347Last Wednesday at 10:39 AM

Quinnipiac is B+ pollster r347, not great, but not terrible either.

I have a hard time seeing that race as tied, but hope springs eternal.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 348Last Wednesday at 10:57 AM

Well, it's not just public polls. They are officially in a panic mode now.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 349Last Wednesday at 11:19 AM

Rachel Bitecofer's (the one who very closely forecasted the 2018 midterms) latest model has Biden's electoral college win probability @ 99.5%, but 48 days is an eternity b4 official Election Tue

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 350Last Wednesday at 12:54 PM

The race to watch in Maine is the one for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

Trump won Maine's 2nd District in 2016 and picked up 1 electoral vote (Maine & Nebraska are the only 2 states to split their electoral votes by CD).

If the Electoral College ends up being very close, that extra electoral vote could matter. In recent polls Biden has been pulling ahead of Trump in Maine-02, so it will be interesting to see if that holds.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 351Last Wednesday at 3:46 PM

I really don't think it will come to R351. I definitely believe Dump will say it was rigged and challenge in the courts but in the end I think Biden will win with a decent amount of space between. Anything they're cooking up with Barr is to be expected most of the voting public expects these shenanigans now and the polls have been pretty stable throughout. I honestly believe Biden can pull this out with a decent electoral college advantage.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 352Last Wednesday at 4:06 PM

Susan Collins must be very concerned.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 353Last Wednesday at 5:22 PM

Today's battleground state polls from Kaiser Family Foundation

NC: Biden +2 FL: Biden +1 Arizona: Biden +5

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 354Last Thursday at 3:05 AM

Suffolk University North Carolina Poll, Sep 11-14 2020 Biden +4

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 355Last Thursday at 3:20 AM

As Nate Cohn says this morning, the Suffolk poll doesn't seem weighted by education, which could affect its accuracy.

However, Suffolk has been a good pollster for Trump in the past, so the North Carolina poll may still be a good one for Biden.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 356Last Thursday at 3:23 AM

Breaking:

@CookPolitical moves Arizonas's 11 Electoral votes from Toss Up to Lean D.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 357Last Thursday at 4:51 AM

The county to watch is Maricopa -- it's the largest U.S. county that Trump won in 2016. Right now Biden is leading in Maricopa.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 358Last Thursday at 3:33 PM

Siena College/The New York Times

*ARIZONA* (Biden +9)

*NORTH CAROLINA (Biden +1)

*MAINE* (Biden +17)

[Likely Voters, Sep 10-15, 2020]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 359Last Friday at 1:55 AM

Also from the NYTimes Poll

Arizona:

Kelly 50%

McSally 42%

Maine

Gideon 49%

Collins 44%

North Carolina:

Cunningham 42%

Tillis 37%

One thing that makes me nervous is the high number of undecided voters in the NC senate race. Cunningham is leading...but with only 42% of the vote.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 360Last Friday at 3:17 AM

Morning Consult 7-18 Sep:

Wisconsin Biden +9

EPIC-MRA 10-15 Sep:

Michigan Biden +8

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 361Last Friday at 4:54 AM

Marist College (A+ pollster) 11-16 Sep, National.

Biden +10 RV, +9 LV

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 362Last Friday at 8:12 AM

Meanwhile, today's poll from the suddenly all important Nebraska-2 district. Global Strategy Group 14-16 September

Biden +6 LV

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 363Last Friday at 5:35 PM

Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice

In surveys before Justice Ginsburg’s death, he led by a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all against President Trump.

Sept. 19, 2020

There’s no way to know exactly what will unfold, but a closer look at recent polls, including new New York Times/Siena College surveys, does provide reason to think that Joseph R. Biden Jr. might have as much — or more — upside on the issue than President Trump.

What voters say on picking the next judge

In Times/Siena polls of Maine, North Carolina and Arizona released Friday, voters preferred Mr. Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent. In each of the three states, Mr. Biden led by just a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all.

Similarly, a Fox News poll last week found that voters nationwide trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump — by seven points — to nominate the next Supreme Court justice. Here again, Mr. Biden led by a slightly wider margin on this issue than he led Mr. Trump.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 364Last Saturday at 3:25 AM

Harry Enten:

We're going to have to see how things look when the dust clears... but Unlike 2016, polling this year suggests Democrats more motivated by Supreme Court than Republicans... I just think it's a totally different ballgame we're looking at.

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 365Last Saturday at 2:05 PM

NYtimes/Siena poll of Montana.

Trump 49

Biden 42 ---

Daines 45

Bullock 44

---

Good result for Dems there actually. The Montana senate race is a close contest, and Trump is only leading by 7 in a state he won by 20(!) in 2016.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 366Yesterday at 3:49 AM

NBC News/WSJ

new national poll

Biden maintains his national lead over Trump.

Biden 51% (+1 since Aug)

Trump 43% (+2 since Aug)

[Sept 13-16, +/- 3.1%, registered voters]

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 36719 hours ago

CBSNews/YouGov

*Florida*

Biden 48%

Trump 46%

**

*Texas*

Trump 48%

Biden 46%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 36819 hours ago

Lots of polling has shown Texas is actually competitive for this election.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 36919 hours ago

I read that as long as Biden was ahead by 8%, there was no way he could lose the electoral college. Once, his national lead went down to 5%, it was "possible" to win the popular vote but not the electoral vote. So the latest national poll is very positive.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 37019 hours ago

The only thing I’m sure about right now is that people in Maine don’t like Susan Collins any longer. I was up there this summer and the distain for her was palpable.

by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 37118 hours ago

[quote] NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll:

[quote] National: Latino voters

Joe Biden 62% > Donald Trump 26%

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by No yard sign trolls, please. reply 37218 hours ago
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