General thread for * 2020 Election Polls *, Part II

A3b. Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in TWELVE by 9/1/16. Just four ties for Biden (two for Clinton), and only one w/undecided factor ≥10% (Atlas 2/3: 45/45); in other words, when leaners break, they break for Biden.

Nevada Poll:

Biden 44% (+5) Trump 39%

University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business 8/20-30

Montana Poll: Trump 48% (+4) Biden 44%

Expedition Strategies/@HouseMajPAC (D) 8/22-27

R1, we no longer trust Nate Silver’s ratings.

North Carolina Governor GE: Cooper (D-inc) 50% (+10) Forest (R) 40

East Carolina University, LV, 8/29-30 #NCgov

National GE: Biden 49% (+8) Trump 41% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 1%

@RedfieldWilton, LV, 8/31-9/1

GEORGIA Trump 48% (+7) Biden 41% Jorgensen 2% Landmark/@wsbtv, LV, 8/29-31

North Carolina Senate GE: Tillis (R-inc) 44% Cunningham (D) 44%

East Carolina University, LV, 8/29-30

North Carolina Poll:

Trump 49% (+2) Biden 47%

East Carolina University (8/29-30)

Shouldn't Biden be up more in Nevada?

Is there cause for concern?

Yes, I saw a story on MSNBC saying Democrats in Nevada are concerned stringent COVID-19 restrictions there may have created a backlash against Democrats among the tourist industry

Who Is Likely To Win?

Biden: 36% (-4) Trump: 35% (+4) Both As Likely: 13% (-)

Redfield & Wilton / September 1, 2020 / n=1,835 / Online

(% chg w August 20)

new Ann Selzer national poll for Grinnell College:

Biden 49% Trump 41%

National GE: Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos 8/31-9/1

National GE: Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 52% (+9) Republicans 43%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 8/26-9/1

National GE: Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos 8/31-9/1

National GE: Biden 47% (+5) Trump 42% Jorgensen 1% Hawkins 0% . Head-2-Head: Biden 50% (+7) Trump 43%

@Suffolk_U/@USATODAY, RV, 8/28-31

R11, link?

Nevada gitters

National GE: Biden 56% (+15) Trump 41%

@OpiniumResearch/@guardian 8/21-25

Narrowing.

Trump rapidly surges to big lead in Georgia

President Donald Trump has built an apparent lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Georgia after two weeks of political conventions, strengthening his position in a state that’s crucial to his re-election chances, according to a poll released Tuesday by Channel 2 Action News.

The poll, conducted by Landmark Communications, shows Trump ahead of Biden, 48% to 41%. About 2% of Georgians support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, while 9% are undecided.

The Landmark poll highlighted bright spots for Biden, too. He led Trump 45% to 16% among independent voters, a bloc that once reliably supported Republicans in Georgia. About 80% of Black voters back the Democrat, and he leads Trump 43% to 37% among voters ages 39 and under.

“It’s probably all temporary — a convention bounce. But it shows there’s room for Trump to go up,” Rountree said, nodding to the roughly one-third of independents who still haven’t decided. “I’d put Georgia in the lean Republican category

How about the protests stop until after the election? Fuck. It's all fucking moron children. They're not even going to fucking VOTE.

Yeah, yeah it's hack Tom Friedman, but he makes a good point.

Some better news.

Buy, donate.

BLM back to the mean.

Yeah, Trump’ s attack on BLM and appeal to Law and Order has given some centrist and independent voters cover to vote for him without feeling guilty

Biden really hasn't had any dips in polling the way HRC did in 2016. It's been a remarkably steady race, poll wise.

Biden aides have grown accustomed to — and wary of — Democrats who question their every move and worry at every tightening poll.

They’ve dealt so much with “bedwetters,” aides have a term for the actions taken to satisfy them: “Operation Rubber Sheets.”

Tight. NEW Monmouth poll of PA:

All registered Biden 49% Trump 45%

High turnout model Biden 49% Trump 46%

Low turnout model Biden 48% Trump 47%

Trump Is campaigning his heart out. He is on the road like a truck driver. Yes, he’s lying and fearmongering, but in person campaigning works.

Monmouth out, Biden up by 4.

Quinnipac dropping later today, apparently.

Cheeto is using every headline to build up the association "Biden = AOC takeover". Biden needs to be as ruthless. But he won't, because, I mean, Dems aren't like that.

Campaigning in person may "work" but we're in a pandemic, and I would wager that the only people demanding in-person campaigning are already Trumpsters or leaning that way to begin with. Everyone else is rightly concerned about large group gatherings.

The polls are tightening too soon. If this were mid October I wouldn't be as worried; however, where polls are Trump are concerned I believe you have to add around four points to his polling data to get an accurate picture.

We ALL have to do our part in this. Talk to people--your friends, your family, etc., and get them to vote. I've registered two girls in my office and convinced three lapsed Jehovah's Witnesses to vote for the first time ever. Evidently for that church, voting is too "wordly." What the fuck ever.

If everyone did the same we'd be in a much better position.

This time last month I was feeling guardedly confident and now I'm worried shitless. I just can't stand the idea of another four years of this Orange Fucktard.

R37, not really. Campaigning on the ground creates hype, excitement, and massive media coverage, most importantly, in state and local media. Like Hillary, Biden is getting a tiny percentage of media coverage compared to Trump. Yes, a lot of Trump coverage is negative, but he’s getTing his message and narrative out while appearing to be a leader by going to swing states.

Where the heck is Kamala? Why isn’t she on the ground in swing states right now creating media?

"however, where polls AND Trump are concerned"

R37, if it’s moving the polls, it’s working . That’s what matters.

This Is Democrats’ Doomsday Scenario for Election Night

What if early results in swing states on Nov. 3 show President Trump ahead, and he declares victory before heavily Democratic mail-in votes, which he has falsely linked with fraud, are fully counted?

By Trip Gabriel

Sept. 2, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

As returns came in on election night in Florida in 2018, the Republicans running for governor and the Senate took narrow leads in races that were too close to call.

Over the next days, their Democratic opponents began closing the gaps as mailed-in votes were counted. President Trump raised an alarm. Demanding that the races be called for the Republicans, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, he tweeted falsely that “large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere,” adding: “An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!”

Nothing was fraudulent about the ballots tallied in the days after Election Day. And neither Democrat went on to win his race. Yet Mr. Trump has never let go of a baseless accusation that Democrats use mail voting to “steal” elections, a piece of disinformation he has promoted all year, including at the Republican National Convention.

Now, with the coronavirus pandemic driving an explosion in absentee voting, and polls suggesting that far more Democrats than Republicans plan to vote by mail, a nightmare scenario haunts Democratic strategists and elected officials.

What if early results in swing states on election night show the president in the lead because most Republicans voted in person, yet in the days afterward, as mail ballots that tilt heavily Democratic are tallied, states flip to Joseph R. Biden Jr.?

Would Mr. Trump claim premature victory — as he did on behalf of the two Florida Republicans and dangled as a possibility in a tweet in July: “Must know Election results on the night of the Election, not days, months, or even years later!”

Would the president, joined by allies in the G.O.P. and the news media, sow distrust in the election by arguing that mail ballots that shift states away from him are “rigged”?

Mr. Trump has been pushing denunciations of mailed-in votes for months, and his penchant for conspiracy theories is only intensifying, such as saying this week that people in “dark shadows” are behind Mr. Biden’s campaign. The nightmare scenario in November is worth preparing for, many Democrats say.

“We’ve certainly seen candidates trying to get out in front of a narrative and declare victory when all the votes have not been counted,” said Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, a Democrat whom Mr. Trump has attacked for promoting mail voting.

...

Agreed, R42.

Biden needs to get out there and be seen!!

...

Ms. Benson and other Democrats in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both key battlegrounds, are trying to change election laws that prohibit absentee ballots from being processed or counted before Election Day. As of now, mail-in votes from large Democratic cities like Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit are not reported until after in-person votes, sometimes days later. Party lawyers are girding for a worst-case scenario in which Mr. Trump fights in courts and state legislatures after declaring a premature victory.

“There has been (rightly) a lot of concern about this,” J.J. Balaban, a Democratic consultant in Pennsylvania, said in an email.

In Michigan, Ms. Benson predicted that three million votes would be cast by mail this year, 60 percent of the total. She has called for changes to let election clerks process absentee ballots early — opening envelopes, contacting voters if ballot signatures don’t match registrations, and beginning the counting. If the changes don’t pass in the Republican-led Legislature, full results may not be known until the Friday or Saturday after Nov. 3, Ms. Benson said. “Time is running out.”

Currently, 12 states do not allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, including the battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A Democratic data group backed by Michael R. Bloomberg said this week that it was likely that Mr. Trump would appear to have won on election night by a landslide, a scenario it called “a red mirage.”

“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Josh Mendelsohn, the chief executive of the group, Hawkfish, told “Axios on HBO.” The company’s survey of registered voters concluded that twice as many planned to cast a ballot by mail as ever before, and that they were mostly Biden supporters.

A spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, Thea McDonald, called Democrats’ concerns about the president prematurely declaring victory “an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory,” adding, “President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair, transparent election in which every valid ballot counts — once.”

The president has raged against mail voting all year, tweeting in May that “there is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent.”

As Mr. Trump demonizes mail ballots, many of his supporters do not plan to use them.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll last month found that nearly half — 47 percent — of supporters of Mr. Biden planned to mail in their votes, compared with two-thirds of Trump supporters — 66 percent — who planned to vote in person on Election Day.

In some states, the discrepancy is even more stark. A recent Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin, another swing state, found that among voters planning to cast a mail ballot, Mr. Biden was favored by 67 percentage points. Among those who planned to vote on Election Day, Mr. Trump led by 41 points.

Mr. Trump himself casts his own Florida ballots as an absentee voter. He has claimed a distinction between “good” absentee ballots and “bad” mail-in ballots, but there is no meaningful difference. His real target seems to be certain states — which this year include California, New Jersey and Utah — where all active registered voters are sent mail-in ballots, not just ballot request forms. Thirty-four states allow all voters to use an absentee ballot without an excuse, mailing it back or dropping it off.

Elections experts say that absentee or mail voting is potentially more subject to instances of fraud than in-person voting, but that states with a history of all-mail voting have a minuscule number of cases. Wide-scale cheating that could swing a close race would be easy to detect.

“Imagine if you tried to change the outcome in Pennsylvania; you’d need a widespread conspiracy,” said Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine.

...

...

Even before Mr. Trump injected new partisanship into mail voting, election analysts identified a “blue shift” in how late-counted absentee ballots tend to boost Democratic candidates.

On election night of the 2018 midterms, a predicted wave of Democratic gains looked like a wipeout. But as mail ballots were tallied in the days and weeks afterward, Democrats kept winning close races. Their net gains in the House went from an apparent 26 seats on election night to 41.

“We’re likely to see a significantly dramatic blue shift in multiple states because of the virus and the political response to the virus,” said Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University, who coined the term “blue shift.”

“How will the public process the concept that election night may end in uncertainty, and this phenomenon is not fraud, it’s just the counting process?” he said.

While TV viewers are used to election night projections of who has won, some broadcast and digital journalists are discussing ways to clearly inform voters that results may be incomplete.

A claim of victory on election night by Mr. Trump, before results are certified by officials, would have no legal effect, Dr. Hasen said. “That said,” he added, “it could have a great political effect and convince his most ardent supporters that he has won the election and any changes in the counts are due to fraud. That’s really a huge concern.”

Anthony Spano, a Trump supporter in Old Forge, Pa., said the president was “so right” when he warned of potential fraud by Democrats. “If they think there’s unrest now, just wait to see if they try to steal this election,” said Mr. Spano, who has worked as a truck mechanic. “Personally, I think people that are nonviolent, we’re going to get very violent.”

Partisan lawsuits are already flying in multiple states around voting procedures, and legal and political challenges are sure to come where results are razor-thin.

Mail ballots, whose use soared in primaries this year because of the pandemic, have been subject to high rejection rates because of human errors: omitted signatures, missed deadlines and missing postmarks. For many Democrats, recent fears that the Postal Service could fail to deliver ballots on time to be counted could potentially swing the pendulum back toward in-person voting.

The party is shifting from its springtime message, that mail voting is safer, to one urging voters to request and return absentee ballots early, and if possible to vote in person. Michelle Obama told viewers of the Democratic National Convention, “We’ve got to vote early — in person if possible.”

In Pennsylvania, Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, a Democrat, and other officials have called for a new law to allow absentee ballots to be opened and processed as early as three weeks before Election Day. Those results would be reported at the same time as Election Day in-person votes.

The point is “to try to avoid candidates making false claims about wins and losses,” said Representative Madeleine Dean, a Democrat from the Philadelphia suburbs who backs the legislation.

Republican state lawmakers partly support the reform, calling in a bill for early processing of mail ballots the Saturday before Election Day. For now, the bill is deadlocked because Democrats oppose other voting changes sought by Republicans, such as eliminating ballot drop-off boxes.

“I worry about a deadlock and not doing the right thing for our elections,” Ms. Dean said. “I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail.”

[quote]where polls are Trump are concerned I believe you have to add around four points to his polling data to get an accurate picture

Fortunately, what you "believe" isn't necessarily the truth.

Every expert out there has said repeatedly that this has been the steadiest race in modern history.

Biden and Kamala should have been campaigning hard in swing states the day after the DNC. They are repeating Hillary mistakes. Lowkey Zoom campaigning will cost us this election.

[quote]Biden needs to get out there and be seen!!

We just saw him yesterday making fun of a Trump heckler in the back of a pickup truck.

Stop buying the rightwing lie that he's disappeared and isn't making appearances, jesus people.

Biden needs to be aggressive, vocal, put Trump on the defensive. He cannot continue this low energy mess.

Re article at R43, all the top comments are along the lines of "Dems must vote in-person."

I think that'll be the rising chorus among pundits. I hope it becomes a thing.

Vote in-person.

R47 you two are arguing about 2 different things: Accuracy vs. volatility.

My advice to you R38 is to stop looking at polls. You are just going to raise your blood pressure needlessly.

And it's a mistake for Democrats to rely on mail in voting through the USPS. Vote early in person or use election board approved drop boxes.

Wait, Monmouth was only polling 400 people? I didn't realize it was such a small sample.

Law and Order and aggressive swing state campaign appearances are working for Trump. He will ride this all the way to Election Day.

Volunteer to be a poll worker, if you can.

BREAKING: Biden to visit Kenosha on Thursday

R52, there is no way every single poll that has been aggregated to reflect this steady race is 4 points off in Biden's favor, and has been for months on end.

That's what the poster claimed, that all polls were cutting 4 points or so off of Trump voters and giving us inaccurate data.

Some polls skew left or right, we know that from RCP and 538, they talk about it pretty regularly. But a wholesale disbelief in all polling because it's "always 4 points or so off" and makes Trump falsely look like he's further behind than he is? No, that's not possible.

R57, that's good news. He needs to get out there.

Even if he can’t shake hands or getting into the crowd, Biden needs energetic campaign events in swing states to have a chance. People are contrasting his lowkey virtual campaign to Trump’s wildcat visiting of three states a day with rabid crowds, and judging Biden as weak and ineffectual. Biden needs to get out there with a mask.

Biden to Air Law-and-Order Ad Condemning Rioters and Looters

The ad, part of a $45 million one-week tv and digital purchase that is by far the campaign’s largest to date, comes as he pushes back against Trump’s attacks.

That’s a good move. Finally

Flashback to @MonmouthPoll Late Aug 2016 In Pennsylvania:

Clinton 48% (+8) Trump 40% 3rd Party 7%

National Poll:

Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40%

@Reuters/@Ipsos (8/31-9/1)

National Poll:

Biden 47% (+5) Trump 42% 3rd Party 1%

Head-2-Head: Biden 50% (+7) Trump 43%

@Suffolk_U/@USATODAY (8/28-31)

Is that the Pittsburgh speech, R61? It's a pretty good one.

Why r10? Clinton won Nevada by 2 points, Biden winning it by 5 or so sounds about right.

Trump - Approval/disapproval

Trump had a little post-convention bump in Nevada R67, but it looks like per 538 that's already dropped back down.

On August 27, 2019, President Donald Trump held a 41.3 percent approval rating and a 54.2 percent disapproval rating. During the 365 days that followed:

• Trump became the third president impeached by the House of Representatives;

• more than 200,000 Americans died from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus;

• the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 10.2 percent;

• an estimated 12 million people lost health insurance coverage;

• Trump pardoned Roger Stone, who was facing jail time for dirty tricks on the president’s behalf;

• George Floyd’s murder sparked a nationwide movement protesting for racial justice — to which officials responded by tear-gassing demonstrators in Lafayette Park in Washington, DC, so Trump could take a photograph holding a Bible.

That is, of course, a bitterly incomplete list of a grimly consequential year in American history. But you’d never know it simply by following Trump’s poll numbers. On August 27, 2020 — one year later, and the day Trump used the White House as a backdrop for his convention speech — FiveThirtyEight had Trump at 42.2 percent approval and 54.3 percent disapproval.

Everything had happened, and politically, nothing had mattered. Or, at the least, not much had changed.

The Debates Are Around the Corner—Desperate Donald’s Last Chance to Lie His Way to Re-Election

The first one is less than a month away. So it’s very much time to start anticipating what stunts Trump will pull this time.

Margaret Carlson

Updated Sep. 02, 2020 9:20AM ET

Published Sep. 01, 2020 4:40AM ET

[quote]Fortunately, what you "believe" isn't necessarily the truth. Every expert out there has said repeatedly that this has been the steadiest race in modern history . . . That's what the poster claimed, that all polls were cutting 4 points or so off of Trump voters and giving us inaccurate data.

No, that wan't my point. I wasn't saying that pollsters were purposely skewing polls; instead I was saying that Trump voters don't always claim him.

R64/R65 I'm incredibly happy that we're still up by seven points . . . but this time last month what was our lead? I want to say we were up by twelve points. The point I'm trying to make is that our lead is in fact shrinking and it's shrinking with sixty-one days to go. WE CAN'T REST ON OUR LAURELS OR "STEADY" POLLING DATA! We all have to DO OUR PART to win this election. That means talking to people and getting them out there to vote. Trump is out there energizing his base every damn day; he's being seen. I'm a radiologist with my own clinic and an office in a local hospital. The televisions in my office are always on CNN and I'm seeing more Trump than I am Biden. I want that to change. I want to see Biden's face every fucking time I turn on the TV.

I don’t know why on earth anyone, let alone a polling company, would waste time on the overall polls. Aren’t they worthless in a presidential race?

Swing states are the only polls that matter. Why would the overall polls be published? What does that inform?

Portland is still ruining things.

I'll say it now: If Trump gets the best of Biden during the debates and makes Biden come off as confused or befuddled, it's over. It's also over if Trump appears more "energetic" and dare I say "youthful" than Biden. It'll be the Kennedy-Nixon debates all over.

Trump is going to win

[quote]I was saying that Trump voters don't always claim him.

I get it, that's what I thought you said, but there is simply no way that most (or all) polls since 2015 have included lies and omissions from "secret Trumpsters" who won't tell pollsters who they will vote for.

That was an excuse the media came up with to try to explain why Trump won in 2016.

Trump won in part because of people disliking HRC, but also thanks to racism, the Comey letter, voter suppression, and very likely voter registration changes made by Russia when they hacked into systems in all 50 states.

There really aren't a lot of secret Trumpsters. Even the "shy Trumper" mentioned in Businessweek recently was a guy who had written a book about Trump. Hardly shy at all.

I do want to add at R77 though that polling may be inaccurate simply because of all the things it CAN'T control for, like in 2016. The polls couldn't reflect the Comey letter, or voter suppression.

So I'm not saying everyone should assume Biden will win, but I don't think anyone has made any kind of real case for there being secret Trumpsters who always skew the polls, either.

Actually, r77, they tend to be more honest about it when it's not a live caller poll. When I last did the comparison in June, the online polls had the race tighter than the live caller polls. I haven't looked to closely lately.

I’m strictly focused on the approval/disapproval rating. That has been going in his favor for the last week. It’s shooting straight up (and disapproval straight down).

This is not good.

He is a terrible person and selling us all out. His approval should be ZERO.

Biden needs to be in the key states as much as possible. Don’t do a Hillary and ignore them.

I guess he has to be in the three debates, but I think those can only help Trump.

[quote] but I think those can only help Trump.

For fuck's sake, why do you think the debates can only help Trump? He can't form a single fucking sentence!

A lot of good points in the last few posts here

Biden absolutely cannot make gaffes in debates or otherwise

[quote] Biden absolutely cannot make gaffes in debates or otherwise

But Trump can say any salad of words he wants. Because MAGA!!

R82, the debates give him a chance to put on a show and lie endlessly. Dem candidates, including Biden, don’t know how to counter blatant lies during debates.

It always interests me about those people who focus on Biden's so-called gaffes. Have you not been paying attention to Trump these last 4 years? Do we really need to make a list of Trump's gaffes? People who are concerned about Biden and gaffes are just falling prey to memes.

[quote] the debates give him a chance to put on a show and lie endlessly

No, he wont have a teleprompter to drone a speech off of. He will spout nonsense and half-sentences and demonstrate to all how much damage the many mini-strokes he's had have done.

R87, But who’s fault is it that trumps gaffes don’t sink in, but Biden’s do? Shouldn’t Democrats and Biden be better at capitalizing on Trump’s incessant gaffes?

And he won't have an audience to play to.

R88, hope so, but it’s usually when he argues off the cuff that he’s the most effective in lying.

I don't think the debates can only help Trump, r81. The country is in a terrible place right now and digging us out is more important this year. If Biden comes in and sticks to the issues with concrete plans and Trump launches into bullshit points then Trump is toast. People aren't having bullshit this time.

A lot is going to depend on the moderators too. Most of the debate moderators in 2016 were shit. Same goes for the primary debates this election season. Mike Wallace did a credible job in 2016 and again this year. Bring in someone of his caliber to moderate but for the love of dog, keep David Muir, Lester Holt, Margaret Brennan and Nora O'Donnell away from the building.

R88, I thought Trump was horrible during the 2016 debates, yet the media and 45% of Americans said he did pretty good. He is judged by your such a low standard that people applaud him for just speaking English.

I wholeheartedly agree, R93. After that first debate I thought it was all over, that we had it in the bag.

I don't think the debates will do much. The most important factor will be outside events. If Biden can't beat Trump back on the law and order issue, he'll lose. The economy for everybody but the bottom 20% is actually not that bad. Trump has made everything about riots in cities. That better change because it's not a winner for Biden.

I just wish Biden would amp up his presence. It's not enough to give a speech once a week. He needs to schedule some socially distanced rallies as well. How about some rallies with farmers, cops and firemen? Can't the Dems even spend a day trying to peel off a few white men from Trump?

Me too. What are they thinking keeping Biden from being aggressive On the campaign trail? Who the heck is advising him?

[quote]I'll say it now: If Trump gets the best of Biden during the debates and makes Biden come off as confused or befuddled, it's over.

I swear, some of you people live on Mars. Trump is actively senile. That Laura Ingraham interview made that very clear.

Chris Wallace - 1st Debate

Steven Scully - 2nd Debate

and Kristen Welker - 3rd Debate

NEW national poll from The Economist/YouGov

Biden: 51% Trump: 40

Was Biden +9 last week, +10 the week before.

Poll of 1,207 registered voters conducted Aug 30 - Sept 1

[quote]I swear, some of you people live on Mars. Trump is actively senile. That Laura Ingraham interview made that very clear.

And if you don't think that Trump's base and a lot of idiot Independents won't cheer him on if gets up there and puts on an unprofessional "show" to get the best of Joe Biden, you're just not living in the real world.

So glad the networks wised up on the moderators.

Just one moderator for each. That’s good. The selections are good.

I’m wondering what the Times is going to turn into the next “but her emails”.

Trump flexes power of incumbency in North Carolina trip. He is NC like he lives there

Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden.

YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC

IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV)

Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect.

North Carolina can be won.

Biden is doing a good job right now talking about reopening schools. Very good.

It theoretically can be won, but since 2010, Republicans have overperformed there and been hyperenergized, while Democratic turnout has been disappointing

To win NC, Biden has to turn election around from focusing on law and order and culture issues

I'm one of those incredibly politically active folks who gets really involved with the presidential campaigns. I kid you not, I still have scars on my knuckles from knocking on doors for Obama. Because there's not a lot of in person volunteering going on this election cycle I have no outlet for my fears, engery, etc., and it's really taking a toll on my mental health.

North Carolina is a state where if Biden is winning it, that means he has already won the election. Its not a must win state, it's a "this was a really great night" state.

Quinnipiac poll:

Do you feel more or less safe?

**Trump: More safe 35%

Less safe 50%

**Biden: More safe 42%

Less safe 40%

Likely voters say 58 – 38% that the country is worse off than it was in 2016.

On handling racial inequality, Biden would do a better job 58–36%

On handling the response to COVID, Biden would do a better job 56–40%

On handling health care, Biden would do a better job 55 – 41%

On handling a crisis, Biden would do a better job 53 – 43%

Joe Biden 52%. -- Donald Trump 42%

This is NOT good.

Monmouth poll: Trump, Biden statistically tied in Pennsylvania

President Trump has gained 9 points on Joe Biden in Pennsylvania over the past six weeks, pulling into a statistical tie with the Democratic presidential nominee in a key battleground state, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 49 percent and Trump at 45 percent among all registered voters in the state. That’s within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error and a far closer race than Monmouth found in July, when Biden led 53 to 40 among registered voters.

The race is even closer among likely voters.

When Monmouth forecasts a high turnout election, Biden leads Trump 49 to 46. In a model reflecting lower turnout, Biden’s lead is only 1 point, at 48 to 47. In July, Biden led by 10 points in the high turnout model and by 7 points in the low turnout model.

“This is really a game of inches,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”

The race has tightened as men in the state have swung wildly in favor of Trump. The president leads by 19 points among men, compared to his 2-point advantage in July.

The race has also grown closer among voters under the age of 50, moving from a 29 point advantage for Biden in July to a 9 point advantage presently.

Biden leads by 24 points among women and by 11 points among seniors. He has a 60 point lead among people of color, although the number of undecided voters here has gone up from 3 percent to 9 percent since July.

“The Republican convention attempted to sow some seeds of doubt among core Democratic blocs, especially young and urban voters,” said Murray. “It looks like they may have had a small amount of success with that, at least for now.”

Biden has traveled to Pennsylvania, which is not far from his Delaware home, more than any other state since the coronavirus lockdown began. Earlier this week, Biden traveled to Pittsburgh to deliver a speech blaming Trump for stoking racial unrest in the country.

A majority of Pennsylvanians, 53 percent, say they trust Biden on the issue of race relations, compared to 42 percent for Trump.

Fifty-two percent say they’re not worried about the suburbs being threatened by violent protests. However, 39 percent of independents and 30 percent of Democrats say people moving into their neighborhoods bringing crime and lower property values is at least a minor problem.

“About 1 in 6 Democrats who actually agree with the GOP’s warning of a threat to the suburbs say they will vote for Trump,” Murray said. “Now, this group represents a fairly small proportion of the total electorate, but it is still large enough to make a difference in a very close race.”

Trump adds to lead in Georgia: poll Support for Black Lives Matter dips 9 points since June: poll Biden’s favorability rating is at 48 percent positive and 46 negative in the poll, with 37 percent of Pennsylvanians viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 32 percent had a very unfavorable view of Biden.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 44 positive and 51 negative, with 45 percent viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 47 percent had a very unfavorable view of Trump.

The Monmouth University poll of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted Aug. 28-Aug. 31 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

New CNN poll has Biden +8

We have gotten a lot of polls post convention showing Biden is up in the 7-8 range, so that's the current state of the race.

Forgot link

How much are the Democrats investing in North Carolina? We are a swing state. I saw various political pundits tweet that the Biden campaign should focus on Florida and the midwest with all the money they raised last month. I think they should fight for NC as well. I do not like the feeling that my state could possibly be won but it is not worth as much as the others.

NC seems stubbornly hard to win, almost as hard as Ohio. Pennsylvania seems only marginally easier than NC, even though Biden is from Scranton.

Back to 70 for Biden.

Mark my words, Trump's gonna try to hold us all hostage with the vaccine. He'll say that we'll get it (whatever 'it' is) if he’s re-elected, but claim it could be held up in the transition if we elect Biden.

TIPP B 49- Dotard 41

[quote] Mark my words, Trump's gonna try to hold us all hostage with the vaccine. He'll say that we'll get it (whatever 'it' is) if he’s re-elected, but claim it could be held up in the transition if we elect Biden.

Honest to God, I would vote for Biden and die in peace, knowing I left the world a better place.

Just received my poll worker paperwork and training day schedule today.

I'm going in. Join me! Contact your local county Board of Elections to register to be a poll worker!

It's common sense to invest more resources in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida than in North Carolina r116.

Look at Trump's margin of victory in 2016. You focus heavily on the the states that are most winnable. Those are your must win states.

Disagree, R123. If I was in a state that was significantly Republican, I would understand. NC is a swing state. I would focus heavily on all of the swing states.

4.9 seems like a high margin of error. How reliable is Monmouth usually?

Have you talked with anyone under 25 who exhibits an understanding of how important this election is? Not so much the student debt, health care, criminal justice reform, etc. dimensions, but the existential, systemic importance?

How sweet would victory be? Can you imagine it? Dear god, the greatest moment of one's life, probably like V-J and V-E days.

Trump. his family, Barr, etc. all swept away in January. It's hard to envision but oh how sweet it would be.

I would drop to my knees and weep unashamedly if it happens, R127.

We would call it V-T day and it would be celebrated for generations to come.

Same here, R128. I’ll also feel energized to make sure it’s completed in January. I’ll keep donating to the DNC.

And both of the people who believe him will then vote for him R119

Buy something people.

Damn. The new Fox News polls have stellar numbers for Biden.

NEW Fox News Polls

ARIZONA

Joe Biden 49%

Donald Trump 40%

NORTH CAROLINA

Joe Biden 50%

Donald Trump 46%

WISCONSIN

Joe Biden 50%

Donald Trump 42%

Maybe Poll Troll can help with this, why is it that all the focus is on the horse race polls and not on Plump’s approval rating?

It seems his approval rating is a raw way to track the other polls anyway.

But the question here is why isn’t this front and center in poll discussions. His approval ratings are improving at an alarming clip.

He’s up 3.5 points in one month. That seems like a lot in a short amount of time.

New @QuinnipiacPoll

Biden: 52% (+10) Trump: 42%

Among men Biden: 48% (+1) Trump: 47%

Among women Biden: 56% (+17) Trump: 39%

Among whites Trump: 50% (+4) Biden: 46%

Among Blacks Biden: 83% (+72) Trump: 11%

Among Latinos Biden: 56% (+20) Trump: 36%

Because liking or not liking someone doesn't mean you won't vote for them ,r134. Some people vote straight down the party line. Some people dislike the other person more. Etc. You look at most senators and congresspeople and you'll see their approval ratings don't necessarily track with winning an election.

So the approval rating has no correlation, and certainly not a useful tool in predicting a winner? Is that your official answer? I’m not sold.

R135 for the typical post convention bumps, it's not a lot. Essentially these polls 100% guaranteed he will lose popular vote by much larger margin than even what he lost to Hillary. Trump only hope is to win again in two of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. That's why GOP is putting all their efforts there. with all this "law and order" nonsense, which seem to be a little bit working. BUT they are now in danger of losing Arizona (that's essentially gone now according to all recent polls), and on a very shaky ground in NC, Florida, Ohio, Texas and Georgia.

I say Biden should get aggressive in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. He needs to carry at least three of those. Otherwise, Biden needs NC and/or Florida to compensate the losses..

“for the typical post convention bumps, it's not a lot“

Got it.

The Washington Post has this neat tool where you can fiddle with turn out models. The easiest path to Biden winning seems to be juicing the female vote.

R138 I'm not saying it has no correlation, but it's certainly not the end all and be all of indicators that R134 seems to think.

Steve Kornacki was saying on msnbc that if Biden keeps staying over 5% ahead of Trump in the national poll average , that gives him better chances to win the EC.

Steve was comparing how a larger than 4-5% advantage in the national poll average matched better odds for Biden in the swing states.

I hate the electoral system, meant not to have California, NY, and Texas dominate. BUT THEN these more sparsely populated states (North Carolina, Wisconsin) dominate the whole thing and here are the candidates pandering to them. At least a Texas et al have a lot more people! Taking away from heavily populated states (yes, they’re crowded for a reason- the majority of Americans agree on it) and placing all Wright on so called @swing states” is ridiculous and anti- democratic.

Yes r143.

If Biden only wins by 3 points he could easily lose the electoral college, 4 is decent, but the safe zone is him being up by ~5.

How is North Carolina dominating?

Trump's approval rating is quite stable, as your link shows, R134. It's about 41%-42%. At one point in his administration, during the shut-down, it was about 39%, but every time someone posts "Trump's approval rating is rising" it's always 41%-42%.

[quote]How much are the Democrats investing in North Carolina? We are a swing state.

You all need to cure your habit of ticket splitting. Roy Cooper is running 10 points ahead, according to the poll I saw this morning. But the Senate race appears to be tied and Biden was down slightly (if I remember correctly).

There is still this belief that split ticketing some how keeps both sides in check, when in fact it just creates a lot of impediments to progress.

Cunningham is ahead for the most part in latest polling.

Biden vs Trump in NC is very close. RCP gave Biden a very slight edge.

North Carolina is the the ninth most populous state. It’s a big state, not “sparsely populated.”

NC ticket splits because we like our own Southern Democrats but tend not to like non Southerners who tend to dominate the National Democratic Party. Roy Cooper speaks with a Southern accent and appeals to NC culture, values, and beliefs. In 2008, Obama appealed to southern culture with his visits to NASCAR, quoting Scripture, wearing a cowboy hat, visits to megachurches, “Our God is an awesome God” talk, and visits to state and county fairs. Northeast and Pacific Democrats are gonna have a Herculean task to appeal to NC because of the culture chasm.

Trump is a New Yorker who trashes the predominate culture of NYC. He genuflects to southern values and beliefs

Thank you for actually posting a poll, R151. The thread turned into a free-for-all between Concerned Democrats With Much Concern (tm) and people who think they have to rebut every single stupid thing a troll says.

Speaking of trolls and polls, Trump's approval rating has NOT gone "straight up." Per 538 Biden's approval has gone up in recent weeks while Trump's has been plummeting -- the A-rated IBD poll has Trump's approval shows major deterioration in his approval ratings.

[quote]The net 16% disapproval in the September IBD/TIPP Poll reflects deterioration from the prior month's 11% net disapproval, 41%-52%.

Trump's highest approval rating was 46% back when he actually gave out small bonuses to help people through the pandemic, then he got bored with that (like he always does) and he's back down to the 43% he's always hovering at.

When the shock of just how bad he was at being president wore off in early 2018 (and when the GOP's "back Trump no matter what" plan fully coalesced) he started hovering around 39% to 43% approval with very little variation.

That's partly why the election polls are so stable. Everyone has already decided what they think about Trump. I am not convinced that any of these "worries" -- Biden doesn't campaign enough, Biden doesn't say enough, Biden doesn't blah blah blah -- will make one bit of difference. The election is entirely about whether we keep Trump or not, and I just don't see his approval rating changing significantly, meaning that he probably doesn't have the support needed to win in November.

SO generous, Facebook. A whole week. New ads (only).

Sociopaths.

MINNESOTA Biden 48% Trump 45% . #MNsen: Smith (D-inc) 43% Lewis (R) 41%

@HarperPolling/@LewisForMN (R) Internal Poll, LV, 8/30-9/1

I sort of agree with R156. I think the percentage of "could go either way" voters are minimal this time around. I think voters opinions and choices are already locked in. You either want more of the same or not.

PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46% Biden 46%

@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 8/25-27

Good graphics

They haven't updated MN yet.

I hope Rasmussen is very wrong

R135 Rasmussen is essentially GOP voter pollster. And also acknowledge that they automatically shave off 4-5% points off Biden's numbers to account for so-called "shy Trump" voters. Hence this is a good and consistent number for Biden.

What R164 said is true.

Opinion

I’m Doomsday Prepping for the End of Democracy

Even if Trump loses, there’s no guarantee we’ll make it to the other side.

Farhad Manjoo

Sept. 3, 2020

My wife, Helen, and I got into a quarrel the other day about how to plan for America’s bleak future. Our family needs to replace an aging car, but I’ve been hesitant, wary of making any new financial commitments as the nation accelerates into the teeth of political chaos or cataclysm. What if, after the election, we need to make a run for it? Why squander spare cash on a new car?

Helen thinks I’m being alarmist — that I’m LARPing “The Handmaid’s Tale,” nursing some revolutionary fantasy of escape from Gilead. But I think she — like a lot of other white, Gen X native-born Americans who’ve known mostly domestic peace and stability — is being entirely too blasé about the approaching storm.

As an immigrant who escaped to America from apartheid-era South Africa, I feel that I’ve cultivated a sharper appreciation for political trouble. To me, the signs on the American horizon are flashing blood red.

Armed political skirmishes are erupting on the streets, and scholars are tracking a rise in violence and instability as the election draws near. Gun sales keep shattering records. Mercifully, I suppose, there’s a nationwide shortage of ammo. Then there is the pandemic, mass unemployment, natural disasters on every coast, intense racial and partisan polarization, and not a little bit of lockdown-induced collective stir craziness.

There’s also this: Helen skipped the Republican convention. I watched it wall-to-wall, and it drove me to despair. In that four-night celebration of Trumpism, I caught a frightening glimpse of the ugly end of America, an authoritarian cult in full flower, and I am not keen to stick around much longer to see if my terrifying premonition pans out.

I want you to know that I am straining, here, to resist partisan squabbling. There was a lot for a lefty like myself to dislike about the Republican confab, but what shook me was not any particular policy goal but instead the convention’s Peronist aesthetics and the unembarrassed profligacy of lies.

...

...

The convention certainly intensified my worries about a Trump re-election. Unloosed from all checks, a two-term Trump would, I fear, usher in a reign by his clan for long into the future. (Trump has repeatedly “joked” about serving beyond a second term.)

But the Republican convention also quickened my worries about American democracy even in the event that he loses. If Trumpism has charmed a sizable minority of Americans, and if the Trump dynasty retains its mass appeal, will America ever move on? Even if the country can get as far as a peaceful transition of power, can we expect anything like a functioning federal government beyond the inauguration?

In a new book, “Presidents, Populism and the Crisis of Democracy,” the political scientists William G. Howell and Terry M. Moe argue that Trumpism is largely a symptom of growing populist disaffection with the American government’s inability to solve people’s problems. Even if Trump does lose, they argue, our democracy will still face serious questions about its viability. I asked Moe, a professor at Stanford, how America might recover from this damage.

“It’s not clear that we can,” he told me. “I think the Republicans, for now, are an anti-democracy party.” Their only chance of political survival is to continue to “make the country as undemocratic as they can so that they can win elections.”

The party’s complete submission to Trump was on full display at the convention. It adopted a platform that was essentially no new platform other than to “enthusiastically support the president’s America-first agenda.” There was no mention of Obamacare, the repeal of which was once a Republican policy obsession. There wasn’t a single reference to the number of Americans who’ve died from the coronavirus, nor even a passing recognition of the threats of a changing climate.

Instead, we saw a dynastic cult of personality: Of the six convention speakers who spoke for longer than 10 minutes, four were Trumps.

Then there was the blizzard of lies. The convention represented a new low in collective artifice and delusion. These weren’t lies about obscure details or matters of interpretation. These lies cut to the bone and marrow of reality — the rendering in the past tense of a pandemic that is still killing about a thousand Americans a day, or the description of an economy that is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression as roaring on all cylinders. How did the party get low-income New Yorkers to praise Trump? They simply tricked them into participating.

It’s not the lies themselves that worry me most, but the fact that millions of people might accept them. Can America endure such mendacity? When you don’t have social trust, when you don’t have a shared view of reality, do you even have a country?

This week, I asked my Twitter followers if they shared my growing alarm over the state of American democracy. Were they, like me, contemplating the coming unraveling of America?

I was surprised and dismayed to find I was hardly alone. Dozens of people responded saying they worried about the outright rigging of the race, the potential for violence over a disputed election, and the abandonment of democratic norms.

...

...

Nancy Bermeo, an emeritus professor of politics at Princeton who studies the erosion of democracies — what scholars call “democratic backsliding” — told me that she sees some reasons for optimism that American democratic norms may survive Trump. Recent polls show the military is increasingly critical of Trump — a positive sign if you’re worried about extra-democratic power grabs. The United States also still has a free press, and there remains widespread support of the basic ideals of democracy.

Still, there is more than enough reason for alarm. “There’s no doubt that there’s serious democratic backsliding going on,” she told me. “He’s doing things that are reminiscent of authoritarians in much less-developed countries with much shorter histories of competitive politics.”

In looking for reasons for consolation, she added, “I’m grasping for hope.”

Rasmussen’s press release: Dead heat: Trump erases Biden’s 8-point lead in Pennsylvania as blacks abandon Democrat

I fucking hate Portland's mayor. He's been refusing to clamp down on the Antifa shit for years now.

He needs to be replaced

If the Rasmussen headline at R169 is true, I'm pissed.

You're linking to the Examiner?

Rasmussen is a C+ pollster r172, their track record is terrible.

Rasmussen is paid to give the GOP the ability to fund raise by "proving" they still have a chance

"Democrats need to energize the Black vote. They need to energize young voters."

"I MUST be a Black woman. The Democrats OWE them representation on the national ticket."

"Democrats just aren't speaking to LatinX voters. They're not reaching out in a meaningful way."

"Independent white middle-class voters in the Midwest were going to vote for Trump anyway."

Morons. You dummies.

Even in the face of this white middle-class backlash shit, Dems will STILL refuse a white male ticket in 2024. If there even is a 2024 election. Because "representation" and "energizing the base" and because "they need to REACH OUT and SPEAK TO XYZ".

Half of you: "Trump will be removed from office by January. The Senate will be forced by public outrage to vote to remove him." "Biden's obviously going to win."

You don't know this country. You live in your bubble. The nation is irrational, selfish, hateful, and gullible.

Portland mayor Ted Wheeler is James Comey 2.0.

Rasmussen always has Trump approval at anywhere from 5-10 points above anybody else. I don't take them seriously.

Trump's average approval is always 40-43 percent. It occasionally sinks and hits the bottom, then, like clockwork, rises again. Then sinks again.

I don't bother paying attention to it unless it goes over 43.

Rasmussen is an obvious Republican front. However, his polls create the narrative that Trump is surging, and in this case, doing well with African-Americans.

[quote]#MNsen: Smith (D-inc) 43% Lewis (R) 41%

Uh, what's up with this, Minnesota? Since when has Tina Smith been unpopular?

Nearly 100 GOP, Independent officials launch group backing Biden.

More Republicans, including several high-profile former governors, came out Thursday in favor of the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

In a press release Thursday morning, the newly-formed group deemed "Republicans and Independents for Biden" said its "sole mission" is to defeat Trump and help get Biden elected.

High-profile members include former NJ Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, former MI Gov. Rick Snyder and former MA Gov. Bill Weld.

Read the comments.

PA average.

Never read comments

Why not?

New Monmouth Poll of NC

NORTH CAROLINA VOTER POLL: #GeneralElection (RV)

PRESIDENT

47% @JoeBiden

45% @realDonaldTrump

US SENATE

46% @CalforNC Cunningham

45% @ThomTillis

GOVERNOR

51% @RoyCooperNC

40% @DanForestNC

[quote] Rasmussen is an obvious Republican front. However, his polls create the narrative that Trump is surging, and in this case, doing well with African-Americans.

He and Yougov were the only two polls to call the 2016 election correctly.

Thats a good poll by Monmouth from NC.

[quote] Rasmussen is a C+ pollster [R172], their track record is terrible.

Yet they called 2016 election correctly. In fact they were one of only two companies to call it right.

R190 that's factually incorrect. They did not predict election correctly. They are wildly inconsistent from election to election. In 2018, their polls were so bad, predicting GOP narrow in for the House and were off by a whopping 8% points, they got dinged to C rating. Also there are two different Rasmussens, as the original pollster split.

R191...

Your own link shows that ABC and Fox News were more accurate r192.

Also you can't cherry pick one election. Pollster ratings are based on how accurate a pollster is for every election they have polled, and Rasmussens track record is bad. It's just a fact.

Democrats need to take note: whatever Roy Cooper is doing works with voters in the Old North State. The man is kicking ass, while other Dems are struggling.

Nate Cohn.

538 today.

Biden needs to visit the key states a lot. PA especially right now.

[quote]Democrats need to take note: whatever Roy Cooper is doing works with voters in the Old North State. The man is kicking ass, while other Dems are struggling.

The politics are different and would probably not work on a national level for Democrats.

Biden gets good polls in Arizona and Wisconsin — and a bad one in Pennsylvania.

Massachusetts and Maryland are blue states with popular Republican governors.

Local politics and national politics can work differently.

Well, speaking of Pennsylvania. This is Quinnipiac (A much more consistent pollster compared to Rassmussen) today: Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a clear 8-point lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday.

R201, thanks. With that included in the forecast, Biden is up 4.1%.

It looks like the stock market is hitting the skids as well as other anemic economic outlook so that should push things in Biden’s favor.

Biden narrowly ahead in Florida in new Quinnipiac poll The poll found Biden with the support of 48 percent of likely voters in Florida, while Trump trails with 45 percent. Neither candidate enjoys overwhelming favorability in the state, however. Forty-one percent of respondents reported a favorable opinion of Biden compared to 46 percent who view him unfavorably. Trump received similar reviews from Florida voters, with 44 percent saying they view him favorably to 49 percent who view him unfavorably.

R204, watch the both-sides media turn the favorability data into "Both Trump and Biden are, overall, disliked by the electorate."

LOSER!!

Anyone here watching Biden's speech from Kenosha?

I am.

Is it good?

No comment, r209.

North Carolina Governor GE: Roy Cooper (D-inc) 51% (+11) Dan Forest (R) 40% Steven DiFiore (L) 3% Al Pisano (C) 1%

@MonmouthPoll, RV, 8/29-9/1

Anyone thinks Pennsylvania isn't a problem... This reporter, in blue Pittsburgh, just happily live tweeted Trump's rally in Latrobe. No lie went unchallenged.

David Brooks

I don’t see Biden winning PA.

There is such a huge backlash against Dems in Philly. Trump could win there as well. Biden should still try to win PA but I’d venture to bet it’s a lost cause.

[quote] "Both Trump and Biden are, overall, disliked by the electorate."

Unfortunately they are. This is Hillary vs Trump again. Biden and a Trump have low approvals, high negative ratings. I really don’t think any Democrat would be doing better at this point. A fringe candidate could have been put up like Sanders and that would have excited a segment of the left but would have turned off the majority of Democratic voters and certainly the majority of the electorate.

As many writers pointed out four years ago, Democrats had no plan B if Clinton lost. That’s a big part of the problem. The candidates who do seem to have potential are just too new and the old establishment refuses to die off.

If Biden loses, Democrats need to start grooming candidates immediately for a 2024 run and no one over 60.

I think the Bernie side of the party is done with Democrats regardless. They know that if Biden loses the result is not going to be the Dems shifting leftward. The party will shift centrist. That will be the takeaway unlike 2016 where they were able to push the line, “If Bernie had gotten the nomination he would have won.” Bernie’s supporters didn’t even show up to the polls to vote for him and Sanders has all but given up on the them and has thrown his support behind Biden. I think they’ll go Green or stay with the AOC, Tlaib wing of the party causing trouble.

Russian Trolls begone

Biden isn't hated by the electorate. The difference between Biden and Trump is Trump has cult followers, don't mistake that for Biden being disliked.

WISCONSIN Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42%

@MorningConsult Tracking Poll, LV, 8/24-9/2

This poll showing a major Trump surge this week: National GE: Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 51% (+7) Republicans 44%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 8/27-9/2

FLORIDA Biden 48% (+3) Trump 45%

@QuinnipiacPoll, LV, 8/28-9/1

[quote] This poll showing a major Trump surge this week: National GE: Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 51% (+7) Republicans 44%

Oh yes that’s quite a “surge” for TRUMP. (???)

This Atlantic story will no doubt “catapult” Trump into the high 30s.

This never stops being incredibly painful, triggering, and it rips off new layers of grief that wreak havoc on my life. I wouldn't wish any of it on my worst enemy. I truly pray for peace for my family, our grief, and for this country.

I'm confident I have better sources within this White House than @JeffreyGoldberg , and I expect that upon investigation his anonymously sourced story will live up to the quality we can expect from The Atlantic under his leadership.

Ooops--sorry about R223/R224. Wrong thread.

The AP already confirmed it. What more do you want?

Ben Domenech is a soulless ghoul. He knows what Trump said about John McCain. Fucking Federalist scum.

Goldberg was beating the drum for the US to invade Iraq....

In 2002, Goldberg's "The Great Terror" published in The New Yorker argued that the threat posed to America by Saddam Hussein was significant, discussing the possible connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda as well as the Iraqi nuclear program, averring that there was "some debate among arms-control experts about exactly when Saddam will have nuclear capabilities. But there is no disagreement that Iraq, if unchecked, will have them soon ... There is little doubt what Saddam might do with an atomic bomb or with his stocks of biological and chemical weapons."[23]

In a late 2002 debate in Slate on the question "Should the U.S. invade Iraq?", Goldberg argued in favor of an invasion on a moral basis, writing, "So: Saddam Hussein is uniquely evil, the only ruler in power today—and the first one since Hitler—to commit chemical genocide. Is that enough of a reason to remove him from power? I would say yes, if 'never again' is in fact actually to mean 'never again.'"[75]

Glenn Greenwald called Goldberg "one of the leading media cheerleaders for the attack on Iraq", claiming Goldberg had "compiled a record of humiliating falsehood-dissemination in the run-up to the war that rivaled Judy Miller's both in terms of recklessness and destructive impact."[76] In 2008, in an article in Slate entitled "How Did I Get Iraq Wrong?", Goldberg explained the reasons behind his initial support of the Iraq War and wrote that he "didn't realize how incompetent the Bush administration could be."[77]

Dataloungers...

Democratic incumbent, Conor Lamb, isn't doing so well against Trump endorsed candidate, Sean Parnell

Parnell has out raised Lamb and has been hitting Western PA hard with ads. Parnell was one of the featured speakers at Trump's Latrobe rally tonight.

If you can, please donate to Lamb so we don't go back to another fucktard Republican out here.

Not sure why the Conor Lamb link isn't working in the above...

#Florida Among

White Voters: Trump 53% (-11 vs 2016 results) Biden 44% (+12)

Black Voters: Biden 85% (+1) Trump 8% (-)

@QuinnipiacPoll

R228, why do you think any of that’s relevant?

I dont understand how all these white people can actually vote for Dump. I'm white and I would never vote for this racist, lying piece of shit. Even the dumpest redneck must know now what a horrible dishonest man he is and that he's trying to destroy our country and democracy.

R232, consider these source. Both writers are jackasses.

R233, it’s white fear over the rioting, not to mention that the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation, etc. Whites feel alienated by the left. It’s not just an American thing either. This is happening globally and has helped given rise to far-Right leaders.

He has multiple sources, as does the AP writer. Doesn’t matter what they wrote about Iraq 18 years ago.

Ad hominem attacks of the messenger are irrational.

Happy to block R228, a troll running damage control for Trump.

Quinnipiac Penn B 52-Dotard 44

Sara Gideon, everyone. Get Susan Collins out of the Senate.

Mark Kelly. Send Martha McSally back to Arizona.

John Hickenlooper for Senate. Retire Cory Gardner. Colorado.

Senate races here.

Keep an eye on Al Gross in Alaska, it's a longshot but Alaska seems to be moving left over the last decade.

[quote]the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

Very few Democratic candidates, with some local exceptions, are talking about any of those issues.

I'm tired of people like you seeing LeftBluePunditMax69 on Twitter saying "Reparations now!" and then pretending like Biden has endorsed the idea of reparations, which Is Why Trump Will Win. Just come off it.

[quote]This is Hillary vs Trump again.

It absolutely is not. Biden has repeatedly outperformed HRC in polls this year, compared to her standing at the same times in 2016. And as we saw in the primaries, once Bernie had someone besides HRC to run against, his support fell dramatically.

From 538: "...even at her post-convention peak, Clinton’s lead over Trump still wasn’t as large as Biden’s is now."

The 2016 election was more about keeping that uppity broad out of the White House than anything else. That's obvious.

[quote]the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

Actually, it's the republicans who keep talking about that shit. Republicans always try to "Wilile Horton" white people. But it's becoming more and more difficult. Yes, you may hear a few Bernie Bros and AOC types and the progressives talking about those issues to energize their base, but these are not major talking points for mainstream democrats.

There are a few trolls on this thread, including r228. Blocking them is so nice!!

[quote] the Dems are talking about reparations, pronouns, cultural appropriation

It's the progressives who talk about this, particularly younger ones. It's children, basically. I regularly read a K-pop forum for English-speaking fans, and it's all about that stuff.

Mainstream Dems don't care about that stuff, but Fox et al like to conflate them with the progressive children (e.g., BLM, college kids and their weird curricula, etc.).

Mainstream Democrats need to seize the narrative from the radical leftist. After all, many leftists are even Democrats.

#NEW Florida Poll

Trump 49% (+3) Biden 46% 3rd Party 3%

@trafalgar_group

Florida will be close just like 4 years ago. Ditto for Pennsylvania. That's almost the whole election right there. If Trump wins them both, we get him for 4 more years even if Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million votes.

Florida is the state come election night. They should report fairly early.

If Biden wins, game over, great night. If Trump wins, it's going to be stressful and we might now know who won the election for a few days.

Does anyone have faith that DeathSantis would allow Florida to go for Biden, regardless of the the actual totals? Anyone?

I don't

I would count out FL and just aim for the swing states that are run by Dem governors: MI, MN, WI, PA. Even NC has a Dem governor: I'd bet it's more likely than FL (but NC is still kind of far from likely).

Biden back to 71% likely.

Look at the maps at the start of the page: I think one of the first 4 blue maps is most likely for Biden, but all seem hard. That said, it's like you can ignore the West except for AZ, which is iffy (though he's ahead for now).

Oh gosh. He and his belief in that failed election outcome model. ⬆️🙄

AZ looks good for now. Always still too close for me, however. I really hope they stop with the TX and GA stuff, and pay attention to AZ, WI, MI, MN, PA, and NC.

Debate prep article.

After wild week, the Trump train looks close to full derailment

Stephen Collinson Profile

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 8:53 AM ET, Fri September 4, 2020

/2020/09/04/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-election-2020-drama/index.html after the .com

I’m Too anxious to watch the debates

R260, same here, but I'm 75% sure I'm going to do it anyway. I was thinking of taking sleeping pills and going to bed early that evening; very early (6:30) since I'm on the West coast.

Nate Silver: Given rapid improvement in many economic indicators, and fairly high approval for Trump on the economy, the idea that Trump is doomed to lose because of the economy seems pretty miscast at this point. It really might be a *comparative* strength of his.

Yeah, the COVID numbers are declining to some extent, and the economy does seem to be springing back. I wonder how Labor Day gatherings will impact things. From the Times's homepage today:

New cases 45,601 -12%

New deaths 1,078 -14%

(-12%, -14% = 14-day change)

This is why those who Have been saying the election will be based on COVID-19 really have no idea how politics works

I hope the Biden campaign sees that there's not much slack among independent moderates, and that they need to do what they can to rein-in the protests and dampen-down the structural racism talk. Harris it the VP pick; they've been laying the race stuff a bit thick since at least the convention.

With their lies and whatever October surprise Trump and Barr have in store for the Biden campaign, there really is very little slack; things could turn against Biden quickly, unfortunately.

By November, we will be in the midst of flu season, you just wait. A bit premature to say that things are improving. Also, the states are now "changing" they way data is reported. Just look at the Florida shenanigans.

But many people are voting in the next four weeks

The earliest voting starts in about two weeks.

NC just sent ballots out

For those voting early, nothing has improved and will improve in the next 2 months. We are still in the midst of pandemic and will be through the Fall and Winter.

That’s true, but Trump is great at creating alternative realties

[quote]Yeah, the COVID numbers are declining to some extent

The model the WH uses projects that the number of deaths will more than double in the next four months. That's the optimistic projection. The gloomy forecast is 620,000 deaths by the end of the year. Lower numbers *this week* mean nothing.

If the media, medical experts, Democrats are able to counter Trump’s distractions, magic vaccine hype, and Denial that COVID is still a major threat

#MISen Poll:

Peters (D-inc) 47% James (R) 46%

@tarrancegroup/@JohnJamesMI (R) Internal (9/1-3)

Biden can hardly contain his exasperation at how ludicrous and crude Trump is, but he’s doing a pretty good job of condemning him for his outrageous statements. It’s like calling out that the emperor has no clothes. Trump looks petty and frivolous in comparison with his rally comedy and wildly optimistic predictions about CoVid and the economy.

New ABC/Ipsos poll:

“Between the two candidates, more Americans trust Biden over Trump to keep the country safe, 55%-42%; to keep their families safe, 56%-42%...to reduce violence in the country, 59%-39%.”

Trump campaign going dark in Arizona, cancels planned TV blitz

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is going off Arizona airwaves after the Labor Day holiday, and may not resume television advertising in the Grand Canyon State until early voting begins in early October.

R275, I watched Biden yesterday (Friday, September 4) and when describing Trump he said, “He’s a frauD.” He emphasized the “D.” I watched his event and he spoke Very. Plainly. about what a faker Trump is. I’ve never heard a politician talk so plainly. But he had no rancor, it was more, “I can’t believe Trump did X. How could anyone do that.” He was calmly bringing skepticism back into the minds of those on the fence.

He was asked why he didn’t speak more angrily about Trump’s comments about veterans, and he said that someone had given him a little star charm they had made in memorial to Beau’s service, and he always carried it around. He said he left that charm at home because he thought carrying it would make him too mad to speak calmly. He said he thought it was unpresidential to go off like Trump did and he wasn’t going to do it.

But one thing he said was, “Beau wasn’t a LOSER.” And he said the others that gave their lives weren’t losers. His words were calm, but his tone of voice was very firm. It was like, “oh no you don’t.”

I agree, he really does sound like he’s saying, the emperor has no clothes. He talks so calmly but plainly. A moron could understand him.

Pete Buttigieg also was on Fox yesterday. What a good choice. He has military service and he appeared on Fox when he was running for President and other candidates wouldn’t. He went on there and he is so smart about how to answer questions there. He never just attacks, he always says to the viewer, what do YOU think when somebody does this. Is this okay with you? He said, you have a choice. You can be a John McCain Republican or a Trump Republican. He was asked, do you believe Trump said this? He said, Fox verified it so I believe it. There were tweets saying Fox was trying to discredit their own fact checkers, but he gave confidence to their work. I really wish he could have been the VP candidate, or Duckworth. But Pete speaks so calmly and sincerely, it’s really hard to find offense with him. He is not polarizing at all.

Poll Troll, it sounds like Trump is low on money. He supposedly pulled in around $90 million to Biden's $364 million last month. They’re both spending as fast as they can pull it in. Trump is doing badly in AZ in large part because of Mark Kelly. Biden could win on Kelly’s coattails.

A lot of Californians have moved to Phoenix for housing and cost of living so it’s gradually changing there. But there are a lot of really rabid Republicans there too. The underlying infrastructure includes some very extreme right wingers. I went last year and there were large handmade signs along the highway praising God and Trump on people’s private property overlooking the highway in northern AZ. It’s my understanding that Republicans looking for remote places to live choose small towns in Arizona because they’re so conservative. That may eventually turn out like Nevada did - big city is solid Dem, remote outskirts are sparsely populated and Republican. The D’s eventually outnumbered the R’s.

It’s fascinating to me that Trump is doing badly there. That’s a real sea change for them.

I am in Arizona and stunned by the changes. It actually seems sudden really when you consider Trump beat Hillary by about 4 Per cent in 2016. While not liking McSally myself I am unsure why she has became so unpopular. She just seems like another republican to me. Anyway, I will be happy to see what happens on election day and welcome the change. So many people here are from somewhere else and Maricopa county is growing quickly.

Thanks, r278... great post!

BREAKING: Mayor Pete Just Joined Joe Biden's Transition Team

BREAKING: @FLSecofState releases new #VoteByMail #'s:

@FlaDems: 2,228,122 @FloridaGOP: 1,510,358

In 2016: Dems had 8,800 vote margin, lost by 112,000 votes In 2018: Dems had 48,000 vote margin, lost by 10,000 votes

Today, @FlaDems have 717,000 vote margin

#VoteThemOut #FlaPol

Great news, r282! Now if we can just keep Desantos from pulling crooked shit in November.

North Carolina update?

National GE: Biden 50% (+13) Trump 37%

@UofMaryland, Adults, 8/24-28

Nate Silver:

Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.

59 days feels like an eternity.

Biden probably needs to win by 4+ point because of the EC.

NEW MEXICO If the election for president were held today ...

Trump 39% Biden 54%

(Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc., LV, 8/26 - 9/2/20)

Ben Wikler: I never thought I’d write this, but I’d like to personally thank Ted Cruz for helping drive the biggest fundraising day of the cycle for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

Thank you, r282!

Makes those 500 postcards I sent to Florida for Vote By Mail worth the hand cramps and stuff fingers.

We've been writing this postcards steadily since 2018. I've written 500 since January.

CBS/Yougov Poll, SEP 2-4, 2020, (likely voters) Wiscosnin: Biden 50% Trump 44%, Biden +6 National: Biden 52% Trump42% Biden +10

Harry Enten:

Biden's lead over Trump has, since January, been steadier than any prez candidate's in any campaign since 1940. It's only rivaled by Obama 2012, and unlike that campaign, the GOP candidate this year is pretty never leading in any polling this year.

A freakin *Rasmussen* poll has Biden leading big in Wisconsin.

#Wisconsin:

#Biden 51%

#Trump 43%

Harry Enten:

Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.

New poll shows a tie in Florida, where unfortunately Biden continues to lag with the Cuban population there.

New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida:

Biden 48%

Trump 48%

I think under normal circumstances, Biden wouldn't have any problem winning Florida. But with the loathsome Desantis in charge, I highly doubt it.

Biden needs to win Florida.

It would be very nice to win Florida (and it would make election night less stressful since Florida is expected to be called fairly early), but Florida is not a must win for Biden r298.

It is a must win for Trump, if Biden wins Florida you can turn off your TV and go to bed, Trump has no path to victory without it.

I don't want to stereotype, but aren't Cuban-Americans traditionally republican and more conservative than other Hispanics?

Based on today's set os state polling, Michigan seems out of reach now for Trump and so are Wisconsin and Arizona. Pennsylvania and Minnesota are very tight and could go either way. And Trump MUST win Florida. Texas, NC and Ohio are also need to be defended by Trump as all polls are within margin of error. Not a good position to be in after Labor Day. I doubt even much teased vaccine announcement could help a lot.

Still I think Biden should be non stop campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio, NC and Florida. As just taking one of them will seal the deal.

One of the billing clerk's in my office is Latina. She voted for Obama both terms but I was astounded to learn that she voted for Trump in 2016. She's the epitome of a "quiet" Trump supporter which may have been, at least in part, due to the fact that I'm very vocal about my political preferences.

Before Covid-19 hit, she told me at dinner that she now understands her parents, who are staunch Republicans. "Everybody wants 'free stuff' and no one wants to work anymore," she said. Her younger brother, who was a big Hillary supporter and now supports Biden, told me that a lot of forty-plus Latin folks see becoming Republicans as synonymous with, for lack of a better phrase, as becoming more "white" and less ethnic.

r302 is just the same white, male, incel Boris pretending to be everyone else embracing Shitler on DL.

Hispanics will all be deported and locked up for violent crimes they didn't commit but Trump believes they did.

Donald Trump's convention bounce has evaporated in Ohio.

9/8/20 Rasmussen:

BIDEN: 49%

TRUMP: 45%

In every swing state, we're seeing a reversion to Joe Biden. Reality is sinking back in now and the dirt on Donald Trump just gets more despicable.

Trump has been to NC thrice in the last several days

Trump's job approval in Florida is 48. It rarely exceeds 42, 43 in any national polling.

Just another punch to the gut reminder that this will be won or lost in a handful of swing states that Trump won before. And where he often outpolls the national.

Keep fighting!!

It's a good thing that Florida's polls are reverting to Biden again, too.

Trump can forget about the popular vote or Pennsylvania.

And look what all that "Law and Order" rhetoric and state invasions did for him in Wisconsin:

BIDEN'S OPENED UP A 6 - 8% LEAD!

R307, it’s good to be optimistic, but foolish to proclaim we are gonna win PA or any other swing state 55 days before the election. We have to work with the awareness Trump will do absolutely anything to win, include suppress the vote, lie, October Surprising, and steal. It is working far too well among too many Floridians and key voter groups. We are in the fight of our lives

In Ohio, early voting begins the first week in October. I'm sure other states will as well so the election is only about 30 days away.

It's hard to know what to make of the Rasmussen poll because Rasmussen is such an unreliable pollster and usually has a strong Republican lean. In theory a Rasmussen poll showing Biden ahead should be good news for Biden but until we get further polling data we have to be cautious about how we interpret any Rasmussen poll.

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Marist College

Biden +9

Biden (53%)

Trump (44%)

[771 Likely Voters, Aug 31-Sep 7, 2020]

All today's battleground state polls look promising for Biden. PA: +9 by Marist; +5 by MC; +4 by CR WI: +8 by MC; +5 by CR Michigan: +10 by MC; +6 by CR Minnesota: +5 by MC Florida:+5 by MC; +3 by CR Arizona: +3 by MC; +4 by CR Ties or within margins of error in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and NC.

The national polls also shifting towards Biden and gap is increasing.

As the formatting of r312 makes it a but hard to read I'll help them out.

Morning Consult isn't a great pollster, but its still nice to see.

NEW @MorningConsult Poll

MICHIGAN

Biden 52% (+10)

Trump 42%

WISCONSIN

Biden 51% (+8)

Trump 43%

MINNESOTA

Biden 49% (+5)

Trump 44%

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

FLORIDA

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

ARIZONA

Biden 49% (+3)

Trump 46%

NORTH CAROLINA

Biden 48% (+1)

Trump 47%

[quote]R302 is just the same white, male, incel Boris pretending to be everyone else embracing Shitler on DL. Hispanics will all be deported and locked up for violent crimes they didn't commit but Trump believes they did.

WTF does this mean, R302?

Maine Supreme Court rules that ranked choice ballots will proceed in the Presidential race.

If Maine's 2nd Congressional District is close, it could flip to Biden in a run-off. Time will tell.

Nice poll for Biden..

SurveyUSA (A rating) poll of Minnesota

Biden 49% (+9)

Trump 40%

Harry Enten:

Another day off the calendar, and another day where Trump was on the defensive in a news cycle. We're now inside of 55 days from the election, and Biden leads by 8 nationally and by 5+ in enough states to total 270+ electoral votes.

While I love that, poll troll, you know what I say:

VOTE ANYWAY!

Let's hand that malignant narcissist an ass kicking he will NEVER FORGET!

Make that bitch cry like the sniveling punk he is.

New poll from Monmouth:

Biden leads by 9 points among Registered voters and 7 points among Likely voters.

Trump's statements about the military have not impacted the race, but Biden is seen as more respectful of American troops.

Biden’s positive rating is up from August, while Trump’s has not moved.

Sept. 10, 2020

Biden now at 75% chance of winning:

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

09/10/2020

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

[quote] Joe Biden, informed by a firefighter that on his last visit he had promised to bring beer, pulls out a six-pack of Iron City and starts handing them out

[quote] Biden here says that he had last visited them in 2014. It was actually 2012. so his staff had prepared for something he said to the Shanksville Volunteer Fire Department eight years earlier (and in PA, a state where getting beer is not exactly a last-minute's notice deal)

[quote] ...his staff remembered a promise from 2012 and brought beer for them. THIS is how competent staff work. Trump's staff don't do the advance work, don't brief him, etc. since the beginning in 2017. We CAN have detail oriented competence again. #BidenHarris2020

From CNN

(CNN)With 53 days left before voters decide his political fate, there were stirrings Thursday that suggest the political freefall President Donald Trump has been in for months has not only ended, but that the Electoral College landscape may be starting to move back in his direction, ever so slightly.

The big news came out of the Cook Political Report, one of the preeminent political handicapping services in the country, which moved two states -- Florida and Nevada -- in the President's direction. Florida moved from "lean Democrat" to "Toss Up," while Nevada went from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat."

"Biden's Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump," wrote Cook's Amy Walter of the moves. "Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead."

Also on Thursday, The Economist updated its electoral model, writing this:

"In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November's presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Donald Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has clawed back a sizeable chunk of support."

All of which leads us to the question: Are we seeing the stirring of an actual Trump comeback? Or is the movement effectively a dead-cat bounce rather than a sign of an actual increased chance for Trump to beat former Vice President Joe Biden on November 3? That question is difficult to answer with any sort of certainty for a few reasons -- most notably that we are still 53 days from the election. And we are still in the grips of a pandemic that is projected to kill more than 400,000 Americans by the end of the year. And in the middle of a national conversation about race that has sparked protests -- peaceful and violent -- across the country. And with the least predictable or traditional person in the White House in modern American history.

In short: The last two-ish months before an election are always chaotic and somewhat unpredictable. That goes quadruple for this election.

But simply because we can't say anything definitive doesn't mean there's nothing to see here. And what these latest stirrings in the electoral map look like are a sort of return to normalcy in the electorate as opposed to any major movement in Trump's favor. Think of if this way: The electorate is like a rubber band. The dual summer crises of the death of George Floyd and the mounting death toll in the United States from coronavirus stretched that rubber band heavily in Biden's direction as voters rapidly lost confidence in the President's ability to effectively deal with the pandemic and/or direct a serious national dialogue about race and policing. All that's happened in the last month or so is that the rubber band has returned slightly closer to its normal level of tension. It hasn't begun to be stretched in Trump's direction and, in fact, it still is more in Biden's favor, although slightly less so than, say, two months ago.

Consider that while Cook's ratings changes narrow Biden's Electoral College lead, even with Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) back in "Toss Up," Biden has 279 electoral votes in their projections. Which is nine more than he needs to be elected in November. And that while The Economist's model now gives Trump a better chance of winning than it did this summer, G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist who wrote the piece about the latest projections, noted this on Twitter: "Context is key tho. We give Trump less than half the chance we would have at this point in 16 if we ran the same model. The last 2 weeks (post-convention) are typically the incumbent's best of the cycle—yet polls moved modestly, if at all, and POTUS's odds are only 3 pts better."

And there's this: Biden's lead in national polling has remained steady for months. At the moment, the CNN poll of polls pegs Biden at 51% and Trump at 43%.

Continued:

Given the deep polarization in the country -- Trump is, according to Gallup, the most polarizing president in American history -- some regression to the mean, electorally speaking, seems somewhat inevitable as Election Day draws closer. We are not a country at the moment in which a presidential candidate of either party is likely to score a massive victory.

That's not to say that Trump can't win. He absolutely can. But it is to say that he, despite some recent movement in places like Florida and Nevada (and even Pennsylvania) in his favor, remains a clear underdog to beat Biden to 270 electoral votes. Still.

New polls this morning from NYT/Siena:

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*: +5 Biden

*MINNESOTA*: +9 Biden

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*: +3 Biden

*NEVADA*: +4 Biden

[Poll conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 11]

Harry Enten:

This is a HUGE difference with 2016. Biden's net favorability is... actually positive. Clinton's was down in the dumps negative.

CBS/YouGov

September 13, 2020

*ARIZONA* (Biden +3)

*MINNESOTA* (Biden +9)

[Likely Voters, Sep 9-11, 2020]

What are all my links "rejected" by DL?

WTF?

Harry Enten:

Biden 2020 vs Clinton 2016 as of September 14:

*ARIZONA*

OH Predictive Insights

Biden (52%)

Trump (42%)

[600 Likely Voters, Sep 8-10, 2020]

Young Latin men inching toward Trump.

[quote] Today, Harlem celebrated a gem of the community, Ms. Katie Nichson, on her 100th birthday. Let’s all honor her birthday wish

A colleague's ex-wife teaches political science at UCF in Orlando, Florida, and she claims that Latins are going to give Florida to Trump. She says that his Latin support is huge in the state, even among well educated Latins.

I can't believe that a minority that Democrats used to have in the bag are going for that fat orange fuck.

The Latino demographic isn't a monolith. There are Cuban immigrants that have been here a few generations, recent immigrants from Mexico and Central America, lots from Puerto Rico and Colombia. They all have different voting patterns.

I would hope you're translating her information poorly R333, because if she's a polisci prof saying "The Latins are gonna give Florida to Trump" then she's terrible at her job.

I keep remembering the statistics about the Latino vote going way up for both Reagan and W in their second elections. It makes me think there's a historical precedent for the demographic voting for the incumbent.

Even then, the worst Latino turnout for Democrats was still 18 points above the Republican, so I can't see the Latino vote swinging so far toward Trump that they'll suddenly drop into the negative numbers for Dems. That just doesn't seem plausible.

Also, Latinos (particularly younger) don't show up on the election day. Hence why Dems had difficulty inching those wins in Floridas and Arizonas. I doubt they get more active now voting for GOP.

[quote]Latinos (particularly younger) don't show up on the election day.

That was another point that she mentioned.

TODAY'S MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL from FLORIDA: Biden +5 LV

In relation to Latino voters, they have this to say: “Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

R338, the Monmouth poll showing Biden +5 with Likely Voters in Florida is good news for Biden. He's had some disappointing numbers lately in other FL polls, but that one could put him back on track in FL.

Meanwhile, today's CNN polls also have good numbers for Biden in Wisconsin and North Carolina:

*WISCONSIN* (Biden +10) Likely Voters

*NORTH CAROLINA* (Biden +3) Likely Voters

[Poll conducted Sep 9-13, 2020]

Hopefully that bloomberg $$ in Florida will target those young Latino voters to actually VOTE.

*VIRGINIA*

Virginia Commonwealth University

Biden +14

Biden (53%)

Trump (39%)

[693 Likely Voters, Aug 28-Sep 7, 2020]

ABC/WP poll

Likely Voters

*WISCONSIN*

Biden (52)

Trump (46)

*

*MINNESOTA*

Biden (57)

Trump (41)

We have received a ton of polling out of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Biden is definitely ahead right now.

National Poll YouGov/Economist

Biden 51% (+9)

Trump 42%

QUINNIPIAC POLL:

Maine Senate

Sara Gideon (D) 54% > Susan Collins (R) 42%

South Carolina Senate

Lindsey Graham (R) 48% = Jaime Harrison (D) 48%

Kentucky Senate

Mitch McConnell (R) 53% > Amy McGrath 41%

I gave to Amy McGrath even though I figure McConnell is impossible to dislodge, but now I'm going to give to Jaime Harrison. Dare I dream that he could beat Miss Lindsey?

Quinnipiac is B+ pollster r347, not great, but not terrible either.

I have a hard time seeing that race as tied, but hope springs eternal.

Well, it's not just public polls. They are officially in a panic mode now.

Rachel Bitecofer's (the one who very closely forecasted the 2018 midterms) latest model has Biden's electoral college win probability @ 99.5%, but 48 days is an eternity b4 official Election Tue

The race to watch in Maine is the one for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

Trump won Maine's 2nd District in 2016 and picked up 1 electoral vote (Maine & Nebraska are the only 2 states to split their electoral votes by CD).

If the Electoral College ends up being very close, that extra electoral vote could matter. In recent polls Biden has been pulling ahead of Trump in Maine-02, so it will be interesting to see if that holds.

I really don't think it will come to R351. I definitely believe Dump will say it was rigged and challenge in the courts but in the end I think Biden will win with a decent amount of space between. Anything they're cooking up with Barr is to be expected most of the voting public expects these shenanigans now and the polls have been pretty stable throughout. I honestly believe Biden can pull this out with a decent electoral college advantage.

Susan Collins must be very concerned.

Today's battleground state polls from Kaiser Family Foundation

NC: Biden +2 FL: Biden +1 Arizona: Biden +5

Suffolk University North Carolina Poll, Sep 11-14 2020 Biden +4

As Nate Cohn says this morning, the Suffolk poll doesn't seem weighted by education, which could affect its accuracy.

However, Suffolk has been a good pollster for Trump in the past, so the North Carolina poll may still be a good one for Biden.

Breaking:

@CookPolitical moves Arizonas's 11 Electoral votes from Toss Up to Lean D.

The county to watch is Maricopa -- it's the largest U.S. county that Trump won in 2016. Right now Biden is leading in Maricopa.

Siena College/The New York Times

*ARIZONA* (Biden +9)

*NORTH CAROLINA (Biden +1)

*MAINE* (Biden +17)

[Likely Voters, Sep 10-15, 2020]

Also from the NYTimes Poll

Arizona:

Kelly 50%

McSally 42%

Maine

Gideon 49%

Collins 44%

North Carolina:

Cunningham 42%

Tillis 37%

One thing that makes me nervous is the high number of undecided voters in the NC senate race. Cunningham is leading...but with only 42% of the vote.

Morning Consult 7-18 Sep:

Wisconsin Biden +9

EPIC-MRA 10-15 Sep:

Michigan Biden +8

Marist College (A+ pollster) 11-16 Sep, National.

Biden +10 RV, +9 LV

Meanwhile, today's poll from the suddenly all important Nebraska-2 district. Global Strategy Group 14-16 September

Biden +6 LV

Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice

In surveys before Justice Ginsburg’s death, he led by a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all against President Trump.

Sept. 19, 2020

There’s no way to know exactly what will unfold, but a closer look at recent polls, including new New York Times/Siena College surveys, does provide reason to think that Joseph R. Biden Jr. might have as much — or more — upside on the issue than President Trump.

What voters say on picking the next judge

In Times/Siena polls of Maine, North Carolina and Arizona released Friday, voters preferred Mr. Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent. In each of the three states, Mr. Biden led by just a slightly wider margin on choosing the next justice than he did over all.

Similarly, a Fox News poll last week found that voters nationwide trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump — by seven points — to nominate the next Supreme Court justice. Here again, Mr. Biden led by a slightly wider margin on this issue than he led Mr. Trump.

Harry Enten:

We're going to have to see how things look when the dust clears... but Unlike 2016, polling this year suggests Democrats more motivated by Supreme Court than Republicans... I just think it's a totally different ballgame we're looking at.

NYtimes/Siena poll of Montana.

Trump 49

Biden 42 ---

Daines 45

Bullock 44

---

Good result for Dems there actually. The Montana senate race is a close contest, and Trump is only leading by 7 in a state he won by 20(!) in 2016.

NBC News/WSJ

new national poll

Biden maintains his national lead over Trump.

Biden 51% (+1 since Aug)

Trump 43% (+2 since Aug)

[Sept 13-16, +/- 3.1%, registered voters]

CBSNews/YouGov

*Florida*

Biden 48%

Trump 46%

**

*Texas*

Trump 48%

Biden 46%

Lots of polling has shown Texas is actually competitive for this election.

I read that as long as Biden was ahead by 8%, there was no way he could lose the electoral college. Once, his national lead went down to 5%, it was "possible" to win the popular vote but not the electoral vote. So the latest national poll is very positive.

The only thing I’m sure about right now is that people in Maine don’t like Susan Collins any longer. I was up there this summer and the distain for her was palpable.

[quote] NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll:

[quote] National: Latino voters

Joe Biden 62% > Donald Trump 26%

New poll from Morning Consult/Politico:

50% of voters said the winner of the November election should make new Supreme Court pick

37% of voters said President Trump should pick Justice Ginsburg’s replacement regardless of who wins on Nov. 3

12% don't know

*IOWA*

Des Moines Register/Selzer poll shows Biden & Trump Tied

Biden (47%)

Trump (47%)

[quote] The poll pegged Trump and Biden at 47% apiece,

[quote] The special election for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s seat is still highly unsettled. Loeffler is pegged at 24%, echoing other polls that suggest she’s built a slight lead. But U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, her fiercest Republican rival, and Democrat Raphael Warnock are within striking distance at roughly 20% each. Trailing is Democrat Matt Lieberman, an educator and the son of former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, with 11% of support. He and former prosecutor Ed Tarver, who is at 5%, are facing renewed calls within their party to quit the race to rally around Warnock

Bad poll day for Biden from WaPo/ABC (A+ pollster)

Arziona

Biden 48%, Trump 47%

Florida

Biden 47%, Trump 51%

The polls keep tightening and in light of SCOTUS situation, the things are not looking promising. Dems needed much larger lead at this point, any close race under circumstances WILL go to Trump.

WRONG.

r376's polls were ALL conducted before the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Post-Ginsburg polling shows that the SUPREME COURT FIGHT HAS PUT JOE BIDEN AHEAD IN ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES AGAIN.

FLORIDA:

BIDEN: 49%

TRUMP: 46%

ARIZONA:

BIDEN: 49%

TRUMP: 43%

[quote]The poll shows that a majority of likely voters nationally — 57 percent — do not believe that Trump should be able to nominate a replacement for Ginsburg. A little more than a third of respondents — 37 percent — say that he should fill the open seat.

Change Research/CNBC 9/18 - 9/20 = 100% polling after Ginsburg's death and Republican intentions announced.

Things are not looking promising for Republicans. Repugs needed a much larger lead at this point, any close race under 2020 circumstances WILL go to Biden.

OOPS! TRUMP CRAPPED HIS RE-ELECTION CHANCES!

Republicans always overreach their mandates. They're going to lose the Senate and White House in 2020 just like they lost the Congress and White House between 2006 - 2008.

I love how Trump just keeps digging his own grave.

All Biden has to do is NOT be Trump!!!

Unfortunately, Change Research is a trash pollster.

NBC News

Since 2016, Trump's demographic base - non-college whites - has declined 3% as a share of eligible voters. That *alone* could cost him reelection.

Sept. 23, 2020

By David Wasserman

Washington Post:

Internal GOP polling discussed among officials in the White House and the Trump campaign shows that 51 percent of voters in 17 battlegrounds said they trust Biden more than Trump to handle the RBG vacancy, while only 43 percent said they trusted Trump.

Unfortunately, the Republican-biased St. Pete Polls also put Biden's momentum breaking ahead of Trump.

FLORIDA:

BIDEN: 50%

TRUMP: 47%

9/21-9/22 St. Pete Polls

If Trump loses Florida, he's toast. An incumbent president just can't be behind for 4 years like this.

CONSERVA-FOILED AGAIN!

Let me guess, all the pollsters are trash? But even when we rig the polls in favor of Republicans, Biden is trouncing Shitler.

And unfortunately, a CBS poll conducted Sept. 15-18 BEFORE Ginsburg's death puts Biden ahead, too:

FLORIDA:

BIDEN: 48%

TRUMP: 46%

Tell us how "trash" CBS Polling is, Boris. Tell us the results won't push Biden even higher when CBS polls them POST-Ginsburg death.

Prove why with a link.

The WaPo/ABC poll was excellent in 2016. Why not accept their numbers which may change after SC. No point burying your head in the sand. Obviously Biden needs to do more in Florida.

New polls this morning have good numbers for Biden in Iowa, and not bad in Georgia & Texas.

Siena College/New York Times (A+ pollster)

IOWA (Biden +3)

GEORGIA (Tie)

TEXAS (Trump +3)

[Likely Voters, Poll conducted Sep 16-22, 2020]

Something’s in the water’: Florida Republicans see surge in voter registration Democrats say they feel pressure from Joe Biden’s campaign to refrain from door-to-door canvassing, which is hindering their efforts.

MIAMI — Republicans have closed the traditional voter registration gap with Democrats to an historically small margin in Florida, triggering a wave of Democratic apprehension in the nation’s biggest swing state.

Top Florida Democrats and longtime activists have increasingly groused in private that they feel pressure from Joe Biden’s campaign to refrain from door-to-door canvassing or holding voter registration drives due to the potential spread of coronavirus and fears of muddying his messaging on the pandemic. n the absence of such efforts, a concerted drive by President Donald Trump’s Florida campaign to register voters has helped cut the state’s long-standing Democratic advantage to fewer than 185,000 voters, a gap of just 1.3 percentage points, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections released this week.

FOX NEWS POLLS

*PENNSYLVANIA*: Biden 51%, Trump 44% [Biden +7]

*OHIO*: Biden 50%, Trump 45% [Biden +5]

*NEVADA*: Biden 52%, Trump 41% [Biden +11]

[Likely Voters, Sep 20-23, 2020]

R387, that's good polling in PA. Anything above 7% and no SCOTUS can help.

100% POST-GINSBURG DEATH DATA!

PENNSYLVANIA:

BIDEN: 51% — ABOVE THE 3% MARGIN OF ERROR

TRUMP: 44%

Sept. 20 - 23, Fox News

TELL US WHAT A "TRASH POLLSTER" FOX NEWS IS, BORIS! TELL US MARGINS OF ERROR DON'T COUNT WHEN THE DEMOCRAT IS WAY ABOVE IT. COME ON, BORIS, TELL US!

Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are unreachable for Trump at this point. Biden just need a blow out win in PA and it's done.

He can lose Arizona and Florida with PA in the bag.

Biden is also leading by 6 points in the new Pennsylvania poll from Franklin & Marshall College:

Excellent news, poll troll!

We need to make this a blowout so there can be no doubt!

Especially with that whole "naked ballot" bullshit in PA.

Ignore the polls and VOTE ANYWAY!

100% POST-GINSBURG DEATH DATA!

PENNSYLVANIA:

BIDEN: 51% — ABOVE THE 3% MARGIN OF ERROR

TRUMP: 44%

Sept. 20 - 23, Fox News

TELL US WHAT A "TRASH POLLSTER" FOX NEWS IS, BORIS! TELL US MARGINS OF ERROR DON'T COUNT WHEN THE DEMOCRAT IS WAY ABOVE IT. COME ON, BORIS, TELL US!

Well, he has no chance of a blowout in PA, so he'll have to get Florida, Ohio and somewhere else!

Trump can't win PA, that is.

r387 how reputable are Faux News' polls? Would they inflate Biden's lead in those states to dampen Democratic turnout?

[quote] Would they inflate Biden's lead in those states to dampen Democratic turnout?

At their peril. 2020 is not 2016. I think that people are so fired up to get rid of this Orange Monster — and cognizant of what happened last time — that polls showing Biden somewhat ahead will spur them to get to the polls just to make sure we bring it home.

R396, Fox’s polling operation is not controlled by the news people. Unlike the news organization, it’s regarded as reliable.

R396, the FOX pollster has a good reputation (A- rating at 538). The FOX polling is separate from the news division. The FOX polling is jointly conducted by 2 polling companies -- a Democratic pollster (Beacon Research) and a Republican pollster (Shaw & Company Research).

No, r396.

The rest of the media measures their accuracy and Fox polling is almost always right.

It's their pundits who are full of shit!

Maybe some Hillary Clinton thread bumps from 2016 will erase all the bad news for Trump and produce a Trump victory in 2020!

GO, 2016! Everything will go EXACTLY the same because all the factors are EXACTLY the same!

Biden maintains a clear lead (8 points) over Trump in this morning's poll from Siena/New York Times:

BIDEN (49%)

TRUMP (41%)

[Likely Voters, Sept 22-Sept 24, 2020]

ABC News/WaPo

Two-way

Biden 54% (+10)

Trump 44%

Four-way

Biden 49% (+6)

Trump 43%

Jorgensen 4%

Hawkins 3%

[quote] Jorgensen 4% Hawkins 3%

I have no clue who these people are. I seriously doubt that whoever they are they will, together, garner 7 percent of the vote.

The Rock's spoken.

Hawkins is not even on the ballot in some key states r404. I know in Wisconsin and PA he didn't make the ballot.

Pool report: One of the readings at the mass Biden is attending:

[quote] PHIL 2:1-11

[quote] "...Do nothing out of selfishness or out of vainglory; rather, humbly regard others as more important than yourselves, each looking out not for his own interests, but also for those of others..."

This is an internal poll from the Harrison campaign that they released.

But still, it is nice to see.

Harrison (D) - 45% (+2)

Graham (R-inc.) - 43%

Please God, let the polls be correct this time.

Dave Wasserman:

A positive sign for Biden: among Black voters, he leads 87%-7% so far in the average crosstabs of September's live-interview polls.

That's up from 83%-9% in August polls (Clinton led 83%-5% in 2016's final pre-election polls).

*PENNSYLVANIA*

Siena College/New York Times [A+ pollster]

Biden +9

Biden (49%)

Trump (40%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 25-27, 2020]

*NEBRASKA* [2nd District]

Siena College/New York Times [A+ pollster]

Biden +7

Biden (48%)

Trump (41%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 25-27, 2020]

That PA poll from the NYtimes warms my heart. Let's hope that is the case.

R413, the PA poll today from Siena/NYT is definitely a good one for Biden.

There will also be a PA poll coming tomorrow from ABC/Post.

Alaska Poll:

Trump 47% (+1)

Biden 46%

Done by Harstad Research r415. A no name polling organization so hard to know how much it can be trusted.

BREAKING: New poll confirms I'm in a dead heat with Dan Sullivan. #Alaska #FlipTheSenate

In August, a PPP poll showed the race tied at 43% to 43% - today's poll has it 45% to 46%:

Retweet, donate and help me win in November:

*PENNSYLVANIA*

New ABC News/WaPo poll just released at Midnight

Biden leads Trump by 9 points among Likely Voters

BIDEN (54)

TRUMP (45)

Biden has a 2-1 lead in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The NYtimes and ABC polls of PA are interesting. Both show a big Biden lead (7/9 pts), but NYtimes has him at 48% of the vote and ABC has him at whopping 54%

That's a significant difference.

R419, both the NYT & ABC polls show a 9-point Biden lead in PA. (The 7-point Biden lead above is for Nebraska's 2nd District).

The NYT has Biden at 49% and ABC has him at 54%, but the spread is 9 points in each poll. So we're seeing some consistency for now.

If Philly shows up Dump,is toast in PA

BIDEN HAS A 10-POINT LEAD IN PA NOW!

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 44%

Sept. 21-26 ABC/Washington Post

OOPS, BUCKS, YOU'RE FULL OF SHIT!

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

University of Massachusetts Lowell

Biden +8

Biden (52%)

Trump (44%)

[Likely Voters, Sep 17-25, 2020]

**Cook Political Report**

Iowa & Ohio move from Lean R to Toss Up

September 29, 2020

Ava DuVernay @ava If we #TurnTexasBlue, Trump is through. Toast. Banished back to Mar-a-Lago fending off bill collectors forever! Ah, the thought!

I’m giving $38 for 38 electoral votes. Let’s go Texas!

Not unexpected but nevertheless shocking to see that even Trump's favourite Rassmussen Poll dramatically shifting. Which poll Trump is going to cite now?

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden gained eight points in just one week according to the latest weekly Rasmussen poll.

Up eight points, Biden now sits at 51 percent, while President Donald Trump sits at just 43 percent.

The race has not dramatically swung by 8 points in a week. Rasmussen is such a shitty poster.

Let's get this trending:

#TimScottSwitchParties

Question: "Do you find that concerning, the President's refusal last night during the debate to condemn white supremacist groups?"

Sen. Tim Scott: "I think he misspoke."

Nothing but bad news for Trump in 5 polls from Florida since the ABC News poll:

BIDEN: 46%

TRUMP: 42%

Susquehanna Polling Sept. 23-26

Dave Wasserman:

Entering October, I've rarely seen this level of consistency in district-level polling by both parties: Trump is running 5%-10% behind his '16 margins, w/ the exception of heavily Latino districts.

In heavily suburban districts, his lag is sometimes >10%.

In the swing state of #NorthCarolina, the mail-in ballots of Black voters are being rejected at 4x the rate of white voters.

If you live in NC, you have a right to CORRECT your ballot if missing a signature / witness signature.

Track your ballot at

*ARIZONA*

Suffolk University

Biden +4

Biden 50%

Trump 46%

[Likely Voters, Sep 26-30, 2020]

BIDEN CLIMBS TO A 5% LEAD IN FLORIDA WITH TOP-RATED SIENNA COLLEGE/N.Y. TIMES POLL!

FLORIDA:

BIDEN: 47%

TRUMP: 42%

Sept. 30-Oct. 1, Sienna College/New York Times.

TELL US WHAT A TRASH POLLSTER SIENNA COLLEGE IS, r379!

TELL US HOW THE RACE 'WILL GO TO TRUMP,' r376!

Tell us why all 8 "trash" pollsters before this said basically the same thing!

Is Biden still the one who "obviously needs to do more in Florida" than Trump, r384?

How is that Supreme Court nomination working out for you?

Are you sure YOU'RE not the one "burying your head in the sand" while you catch COVID from Shitler?

SEE YOU, SUCKERS. The G.O.P. is over for a decade.

Dave Wasserman:

We're now a month out from Election Day, and if 2020 is a free and fair election, President Trump is on track to lose.

The post debate polls continue to look great for Biden.

Headlines from new NBC/WSJ poll (conducted after the debate, 9/30-10/1)

1. Biden's national lead among registered voters expands from 8pts to 14pts

Biden 53%

Trump 39%

Was Biden 51%, Trump 43% in Sept poll before debate

CBS Pennsylvania 51-44.

[quote]The race has not dramatically swung by 8 points in a week. Rasmussen is such a shitty poster.

There have been other polls since then that have shown the same swing, like the NBC/WSJ poll already posted.

Sorry guys, but all your theories that this covid diagnosis is faked and yet another one of Trump's masterstrokes of impeccable genius is way off. He got the virus, people are even more fed up with his incompetence, and he's crashing and burning in the polls.

Reuters/Ipsos poll:

"65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that 'if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected'"

Yahoo News/YouGov: Most registered voters say President Trump has not behaved appropriately to prevent COVID-19:

South Carolina, Senate - Graham ahead a tiny bit.

Thing are looking good.

God I hope that asshole Van Drew loses his seat. Poll shows Kennedy is up!

Today's poll from Siena/Upshot (A+ pollster) ARIZONA Biden +8 (LV)

That a huge jump from last month in one of the most important battleground states this election.

Biden has been looking so damn strong in recent polling. This election honestly feels most similar to 2008 to me. Let's hope.

Arizona might turn blue soon.

Analysis from nate today.

Arizona turns blue for a lot of elections.

CNN/SSRS Poll (post-diagnosis) 1-4 October (RV)

Biden +16

Biden 57%

Trump 41%

CNN and WSJ both showing Biden up by double digits. This race isn't looking like it will be particularly close.

I fucking hate the VP debate. It's going to help Trump because Pence will at least be normal.

82!

Even daily Rassmussen is steadily collapsing!!!!

Waiting on today's big Monmouth PA poll...

[quote] Tomorrow, a big one in Pennsylvania. On Tuesday, we expect a Monmouth poll out of Pennsylvania. It’s a big one. Last time, it found Mr. Biden up by just three points in the state, one of the president’s best results of the month. If Monmouth shows a larger lead for Mr. Biden — as recent Times/Siena, ABC/Washington Post and YouGov polls have — Mr. Trump’s path to the presidency will plainly be in serious jeopardy.

Today's Monmouth (538 A+ pollster) results for PA: Biden up 12 points.

R455, That's massive jump. Also, news from Michigan today. Biden+9

538 PA page updated.

They aren't outliers anymore, the recent polling is consistent with Biden currently leading by double-digits.

The 270 updated their consensus projected map combining all 2 forecast organisations and here is how it looks as of today.

** I would say ME2 and NE2 both should be blue based on all recent polling.

More signs of trouble.

by CNN: President Donald Trump's campaign canceled its planned television advertising in Iowa and Ohio this week, focusing its spending on states where Trump is behind even as polls show he is neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the two Midwestern states.

Trump's campaign canceled its ad reservations of $2.5 million in Ohio and $820,000 in Iowa this week, according to ad-tracking firm CMAG. It'll be his third consecutive week without television ads in Iowa and Ohio.

Absolute insanity that he's running around like a maniac while he's hopped up on steroids, worried about losing the election, yet they keep pulling all of their ads. They really don't even have $2.5M to spend on them?

A question about polling methodology: on 538 I always see multiple polls from the same outfit that seem identical, all with the same LV or RV model, same date range, even same number of voters—but with different results. The new Monmouth polls of PA (linked at R457) are an example. What differentiates them?

The three Monmouth polls consist of two likely voters polls and one registered voters poll.

[quote] West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago. More voters trust the challenger than the incumbent on key issues, such as handling the pandemic. The poll does not find much shift in opinion since the president’s own Covid-19 diagnosis. Other findings show a Democratic advantage in a trio of statewide office races and a tight margin in the generic party preference for Congress.

I think doing two likely voter polls lets them give this sort of range (8-11% lead).

David Wasserman today.

Opinion

The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble

Each one is in a battleground state. Votes from people there will matter a lot — and offer Joe Biden several paths to victory.

By David Wasserman

Mr. Wasserman is the House editor at The Cook Political Report.

Oct. 6, 2020

In an era of stark political polarization, it is difficult to find any one place that is a true microcosm of the country. But it is possible to find places on which the November election pivots. These communities that hold the key to the vote are as varied as the nation — and they reflect a notable inversion of its politics.

Polls now show Joe Biden with a surprising opportunity to capture Sun Belt suburbs that have voted reliably Republican for decades. He is also performing better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 — but perhaps not as well as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012 — in heavily white, historically blue Frost Belt small towns and midsize cities where Donald Trump enjoyed a breakthrough in 2016.

These 10 bellwether counties — five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) — could point us toward each state’s winner. They run the gamut from meatpacking hubs to white-collar office parks, and from peach orchards to yacht-dense retiree havens. But there is something they all have in common: Their votes will matter a lot.

To win the White House, Mr. Biden will need to flip some combination of the 10 states Mr. Trump carried by less than 10 points in 2016 (in ascending order of margin): Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. Mr. Biden has several paths to victory, and the first three states alone, in addition to every state won by Hillary Clinton, would be enough to put him into the Oval Office.

Conversely, Mr. Trump would likely need to win at least eight of those 10 states for a second term. A look at these bellwethers — all either tossups or leaning toward Mr. Biden — makes clear that Mr. Trump is in serious trouble.

Frost Belt

1. Kent County, Mich. (pop. 656,955)

Outlook: Lean Biden

The prosperous home of Steelcase office furniture, the DeVos family’s Amway empire and President Gerald Ford, Grand Rapids was long a Republican bastion owing to its deeply conservative Dutch Reformed roots. But its white-collar work force has soured on Mr. Trump’s party, and in 2016 Mr. Trump won Kent County by just three points, down from Mitt Romney’s eight-point margin.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, carried Kent County by four points in 2018, and Mr. Biden has a strong chance to win it in November. Private polls of the Third Congressional District, which covers much of Kent County, show Mr. Biden with a slight lead.

...

2. Wood County, Ohio (pop. 130,817)

Outlook: Tossup

Wood County, just south of Toledo, has multiple personalities. At its northern end are close-in Toledo bedroom communities. It has a strong affinity for rural culture: its county seat, Bowling Green, hosts the National Tractor Pulling Championships each August. And its diesel-fueled culture might be balanced out by Bowling Green State University (enrollment 19,905), a trove of Democratic votes.

Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too.

3. Erie County, Penn. (pop. 269,728)

Outlook: Lean Biden

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh hog the spotlight, but Pennsylvania’s electoral ground zero might be its far northwest corner. The lakefront city of Erie is famous for assembling locomotives and packaging Smith’s meats. After decades of layoffs, it’s now home to a large population of refugees and the nation’s largest medical school by enrollment, Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine.

Erie was also the site of a big Trump breakthrough in 2016: He carried the county by nearly two points, defying decades of Democratic dominance owing to a strong union heritage. Mr. Trump likely needs to win it again to keep Pennsylvania in his column. A February Mercyhurst University poll showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 48 percent to 44 percent in Erie County, and that was before Covid-19 made headlines.

...

4. Sauk County, Wis. (pop. 64,442)

Outlook: Lean Biden

Sauk County is a popular summer vacation destination and home to the state’s largest indoor water park. Its county seat, Baraboo, was the birthplace of the Ringling Brothers circus and houses the International Clown Hall of Fame and Research Center.

In 2016, Sauk County voted for a different showman — Mr. Trump — by 0.4 points after twice voting handily for Mr. Obama. In 2018, it voted for Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, by 10 points. Mr. Trump’s campaign is counting on its door-knocking efforts, in contrast to Mr. Biden’s mostly virtual outreach, to keep it red. But Wisconsin’s expanding Covid-19 “red zone” could throw a wrench in the Republican ground game.

5. Marshall County, Iowa (pop. 39,369)

Outlook: Tossup

Marshalltown, about 50 miles northeast of Des Moines, has been hit hard by the coronavirus: In April, it experienced Covid-19 outbreaks at both the 500-bed Iowa Veterans Home and the giant JBS Swift meatpacking plant. And in August, a derecho tore through town, damaging over 700 buildings. Rebuilding is likely to take years.

In 2016, Marshall County voted for Mr. Trump by eight points after voting twice for Mr. Obama by nine points. But the unpopularity of Gov. Kim Reynolds — her approval rating in August on her handling of the pandemic, was the lowest among all governors — is compounding Republicans’ problems this year. Statewide polls show both Mr. Trump and another Republican, Senator Joni Ernst, struggling to carry Iowa.

The meatpacking industry has attracted thousands of new Hispanic residents, many of whom could be first-time voters. From 2000 to 2019, the Hispanic or Latino share of Marshall County’s population surged to 23 percent from 9 percent.

Sun Belt

6. Maricopa County, Ariz. (pop. 4,485,414)

Outlook: Lean Biden

Maricopa County is crucial to the state outcome; it’s home to Phoenix and 62 percent of Arizona’s residents. The county is also a living portrait of why Arizona has become so competitive: It has a young and fast-growing Hispanic population, conservative-leaning retirees from California and elsewhere and a substantial number of Mormons who once reliably voted Republican but remain skeptical of Mr. Trump.

In 2016, Mr. Trump carried Maricopa by three points, down from Mitt Romney’s 11-point margin in 2012. In 2018, the Democrat Kyrsten Sinema carried it by four points en route to winning a Senate seat, aided by gains in highly professional suburbs.

A mid-September Monmouth University poll showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump in Maricopa County 50 percent to 41 percent, a sign that Arizona’s largest county continues to trend left.

...

7. Pinellas County, Fla. (pop. 974,996)

Outlook: Lean Biden

With a median age of 48 and hordes of retirees from the Midwest, Pinellas, which includes St. Petersburg, has one of the oldest populations in America. In 2012, it voted for Mr. Obama by six points, but in 2016 Mr. Trump carried it by a single point, matching his statewide margin. So far, Mr. Biden appears to be polling better than Mrs. Clinton among older voters.

A late August survey by St. Pete Polls showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 54 percent to 40 percent in the 13th Congressional District, which covers most of Pinellas. Pinellas could offer an early assessment of Florida on election night. If Mr. Trump loses Pinellas, he’ll have to make up for it with gains elsewhere — especially among Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade County.

8. Peach County, Ga. (pop. 27,546)

Outlook: Tossup

Peach County lives up to its name: It’s the home of two of the biggest peach-packing houses in Georgia. Politically, there may be no better bellwether in the state.

The population is 52 percent white and 44 percent Black, and its voting is racially polarized. In 2012, Peach County voted by seven points for Mr. Obama. But in 2016, Black turnout dropped sharply, and Mr. Trump won it by three points. Peach County could be a good indicator of whether the addition of Senator Kamala Harris to Mr. Biden’s ticket improves Black turnout.

So far, Mr. Trump is polling marginally better among Black voters, particularly young men, than he did in 2016. But Democrats hope that higher African-American engagement — including a strong surge in absentee-ballot requests — more than offsets it in places like Peach County.

9. New Hanover County, N.C. (pop. 234,473)

Outlook: Tossup

Wilmington’s most famous export might be Michael Jordan, but more recently its bustling movie and TV production industry has earned it the nicknames “Hollywood East” and “Wilmywood.” It was North Carolina’s largest city until the early 20th century, and today it might be its swingiest: Any entertainment industry leftism might be canceled out by a heavy military and retiree presence.

The county hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1976, and in 2016, it voted for Mr. Trump by four points, approximating the state’s result. But it’s home to plenty of the types of voters with whom Mr. Biden is doing well nationally: older people, African-Americans and upper-income suburbanites (Whole Foods Market arrived in Wilmington in 2012). It could well go blue in 2020.

...

10. Collin County, Texas (pop. 1,034,730)

Outlook: Tossup

Everything is bigger in Texas — including the suburban backlash against Mr. Trump — and the political metamorphosis underway in Dallas’s white-collar northern suburbs is happening at a dizzying pace. Since 2010, Collin’s population has boomed 32 percent and is now one-sixth Asian.

In 2012, Collin County voted for Mitt Romney by 31 points. But in 2016, it voted for Mr. Trump by 17 points, and in the 2018 midterms Senator Ted Cruz carried it over Beto O’Rourke by just six points. Despite Texas’s old Wild West stereotype, the state now has one of the most metropolitan and diverse electorates in the country — and Mr. Trump’s erosion in its sprawling suburbs explains Mr. Biden’s surprising opportunity.

At least three polls conducted for lower-tier races show Mr. Biden tied or leading Mr. Trump in the Third Congressional District, which covers most of Collin County — a stunning development to Texas political analysts.

Bonus: Vigo County, Ind. (pop. 107,038)

Outlook: Lean Trump

Perhaps the most widely cited bellwether in the country, Vigo, which includes Terre Haute, is the only county in America that has voted for the winner of every presidential race since 1956. But it may lose that status in 2020: In 2016, it broke for Mr. Trump by a whopping 15 points, and it’s easy to see him carrying it again this fall, even if he loses the presidency.

Note: all populations are 2019 census estimates.

David Wasserman (@Redistrict) is the House editor at The Cook Political Report.

83!

Trump just instructed McConnell not to bother with another relief bill, but rather to get Barrett onto the Supreme Court ASAP. He knows he has to steal the election in the courts.

Market is dumping. Barrett ASAP he says.

Does Trump want to win the election? Making it clear that he is personally stopping another stimulus!

Well thanks Cheeto. I appreciate you making it easy on Biden.

He doesn't care: he's weighed the options and has decided it'll be easier to steal the election than win it.

You can try to steal an election if its close, but right now it isn't looking like this will be close.

It will tighten as we get into the last weeks.

These are the last weeks, Vlad.

Nate Cohn:

If the polls were exactly as wrong as they were over the final three weeks in 2016, Biden would still win with over 300 electoral votes

Tim Alberta (POLITICO):

I can’t overstate the significance of this. Two red-state Rs, on consecutive days, telling me they’re seeing poll numbers they never thought were possible.

Their shared conclusion: Trump’s standing w/ white college+ women threatens to tank the entire party down-ballot on Nov 3.

Can someone please start a VP debate thread?

Even Rasmussen finally gave in. Trump has plunged overnight.

Biden 52%

Trump 40%

Gurls, that's it. We can't bring up 2016 anymore.

27 days to go.

What's going on with the Senate? I know the House is pretty locked in.

[quote] What's going on with the Senate? I know the House is pretty locked in.

According to Nate, Democrats are slightly favored to take the Senate via ME, NC, AZ and possibly IA (while losing AL). His forecasts are dim for MS, SC and both GA

He forgot CO and NC is no longer a certain thing.

[quote] If you have to do it naked, then so be it! Sarah Silverman, Amy Schumer, Mark Ruffalo, Chris Rock, Naomi Campbell, and more get naked to show you how it’s done. Seriously, Pennsylvania, NO NAKED BALLOTS!

Yeah I am hoping we will pull off the NC senate race but I am not confident.

Colorado, Arizona and Maine (bye Collins!) look like pick ups.

Whether we get NC, Iowa, Montana, or South Carolina(!!!) we will see.

Also I see the GOP has all of a 7% chance of taking back the house, and I am still thinking that's high lol.

Don't forget Alaska...that's a wild card too.

Dems need how many to take the Senate?

The Senate is currently

53 GOP

45 Dem

2 independent (Bernie and Maine’s Angus King)

I think Dems needs to pick up 5 for a majority.

The two independent senators caucus with the Dems. So right now it’s

53 GOP

47 Dem caucus

Dems need a net +3. When it’s 50-50, leadership goes to the party of the Vice President.

TEXAS

Biden 48% = Trump 48% . #TXsen:

Cornyn (R-inc) 47% > Hegar (D) 46%

McKennon (L) 2%, Collins (G) 1%

Speaking of Montana. This is the first time in months Bullock pulls ahead by a sliver of margin. Might be an outlier but Trump's numbers also collapsed in Montana in today's polls.

Important to remember that net 3 means winning four, since Doug Jones is expected to lose in Alabama.

We need one more seat outside of Colorado, Arizona and Maine to get 50/50 + Kamala.

Apparently local news in North Carolina is really hammering Cunningham on his affair.

NC is gone. Lets move on. All hope is now on Bullock and Greenfield.

Because of an affair? Have those dolts in NC, not been paying attentions. Affairs are no big deal anymore.

All attention is on Senate but I am starting to get worried about the House races as some of them getting way too close for comfort.

Gaining more house seats in battleground states might end up being very important if things are not resolved on November 3rd.

[quote]NC is gone. Lets move on.

Uh, no. Data for Progress poll today: Cunningham 50/39

Stats for House races getting close? I'm done donating to Senate candidates; want recs for House candidates.

R500, here u go.

*Fox News*:

National poll: Likely voters

Biden (53%)

Trump (43%)

[Poll conducted Oct 3-6, 2020]

New York Times/Siena College

NEVADA (+ 6 BIDEN)

OHIO (+1 BIDEN)

*WISCONSIN*

Marquette poll

Biden +5

(46%) Biden

(41%) Trump

4% (Libertarian Jo Jorgensen)

Oh, Wisconsin is a bit closer than I thought. Hmm...

Here's one, R500:

Kara Eastman

Apparently, the Democrat Brad Ashford, lost the seat to Republican Don Bacon last cycle. Ashford's wife lost the primary to Eastman, so Bacon is backing the Republican, Bacon, instead.

[quote] NC is gone. Lets move on.

🙄

It was hardly an affair. It was some PG flirtatious tweets. A dunderheaded move, but hardly disqualifying. Dems have started to catch on to the Repuke tactics. Ignore and keep going.

Quite the sharp break, with Joe rising steeply etc.

Nate Cohn:

One place where the state polls seemed to have improved for Biden as of late is Florida, where Biden's been up by about 5 points on average over the last two weeks.

Early voting stats here.

52.1% for Biden - a new high. Trump hasn't reached a new low yet, at 42%.

Sharp break, but I'm worried about the curve having enough time to return to the mean (narrow between the two of them). We have 25 days, and within 25 days, it looks like it can move quite a bit, judging by earlier parts of the curves.

Point taken, R511, but then again, earlier parts of the curve all show Biden ahead of Trump, usually well ahead.

FWIW Democratic polling in NC supposedly shows high awareness of Cunningham's scandal but little to no effect on the race.

^^^GOOD!

it's about damned time Democrats stopped this "purity" bullshit when the rethugs will vote for thieves, con men, adulterers, child molesters and wife beaters without batting an eye.

The media have found their latest gambit to both-sides Biden: “He’s just as deceptive as Trump — he won’t tell us what he’s going to do with the Supreme Court!”

Fuck the media.

Every time they get asked about Court Packing, they should say, sorry, I think you're talking about Mitch McConnell.

fwiw the 2 polls which forecasted 45's win are showing Biden up +8.5 (IBD/TIPP) & +12 (USC/LA Times) nationally

What were they showing for Clinton on Oct. 11, 2016, R516? Not that there are many opportunities for the Republicans to reverse the trend now as there was then.

The court packing things is just a red herring and they should say what R515 said.

When the states start counting the votes.

PA and WI are the only big swing states that don't preprocess ballots (verifying signatures, flattening for machine feeding).

Looks like FL is quickly knowable on election night.

R519, so it's PA and WI where most of the lawsuits are going to occur and Trump will claim voter fraud.

I think so, R520. Unless another swing state is very close (maybe within 1%).

Actually, if things stay more or less the way they are (which they won't), WI won't be an issue. 538's weighted average gives Biden +7.6.

It's PA that's going to be the big one. 538 average is +7.1 Biden, but somehow I think it's PA that's going to be the big lawsuit magnet.

Polls from WI indicate that it won't be close at all. But PA will be HUGE!!!! That state will make or break it. AZ, NE-2, and ME2 will be absolute MUST for Biden, if PA results are challenged.

Wisconsin is the state that the polls were most wrong in 2016. Pollsters have made adjustments, but important to keep that in mind. The good thing is what polls underrated is how undecided voters would break for Trump, but much fewer undecided this time around.

Anyway, in terms of reporting we will know the result of Florida early. If Biden wins Florida the election is over, period.

Everyone, install reputable security suites (e.g., Norton) on your PC/Mac (yes, even Mac). If you use Windows, at least turn on Windows Security.

Don't let your PC/Mac be taken over by one of Boris's election-fuckery malware/botnet.

Nate Cohn:

Biden's lead is up to 12.7 on the USC tracker, his all time high.

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Monmouth poll released today

Biden +4 in 'high turnout'

Guardian: Biden +17.

What is this Opinium/Guardian poll and how reliable is it? It's so sweet I have to believe it's a wacky outlier, or something out of my cotton-candy dreams.

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

University of New Hampshire poll

Biden +12

Biden (55%)

Trump (43%)

[Likely Voters, Oct 9-12, 2020]

Its a British polling firm that is new to polling American elections r529, so who knows.

NYTimes has Biden and Cunningham leading by 4 in North Carolina, but dangerously they are showing a lot of undecideds which could alter that race.

*MICHIGAN*

EPIC-MRA poll

Biden +9

Biden (48%)

Trump (39%)

[Likely Voters, Oct 8-12, 2020]

Coverage of the amazing Georgia poll.

I really, truly, badly want the senatrice to lose.

[quote]NYTimes has Biden and Cunningham leading by 4 in North Carolina, but dangerously they are showing a lot of undecideds which could alter that race.

I can't imagine how much of a moron one would have to be to remain "undecided" in this election year.

It is nice but Quinnipiac polls have been super-Biden friendly and above where everyone else is polling r534.

It's possible if this is a landslide Biden will indeed win Georgia. I guarantee you he won't win it by 7 points.

More significant than the actual number in the Q poll is the rise from their September poll.

Those Quinnipiac polls in Georgia really do sound too good to be true - more like an outlier. We'll have to wait for more polls.

Just out- Will GA turn blue?

NBC News/Wall St Journal poll: Biden is +11 over Trump (53/42).

Typically, the WSJ is all about "this is a rebound for Trump" since Biden was up +14 in their last poll. (And the commenters are largely Republican dead-enders.)

This is interesting: "Some 50% say they are better off than they were four years ago, compared with 34% who say they are worse off. However, 58% say the country is worse off than four years ago, compared with 38% who say it is better off. Moreover, more than 60% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction."

Harry Enten:

Another day pretty much complete. Another day where Biden holds a double-digit lead nationally. The "real lead" (i.e. in the tipping point state) is closer to 7 or 8... With under 3 weeks to go, time is getting short.

*ARIZONA*

Monmouth poll

Biden leads by 7 points in a 'high turnout' electorate, 51-44, and leads by 2 points in a 'low turnout' election.

Latest national polls via @CNN:

NPR/Marist: Biden +11

Kaiser Fam: Biden +11

UM Lowell: Biden +10

NBC/WSJ: Biden +11

ABC/Post: Biden +12

Pew Rsrch: Biden +10

Fox News: Biden +10

Ipsos/Reut: Biden +12

I went down to the Hamilton county board of elections for poll worker training this week and it was a fucking ZOO. Matt Damon should buy it!

They had two cops in the PARKING LOT directing traffic and two on the street directing traffic.

Cars were lined up to drop off their ballots at they ONLY Dropbox in the county and there was a short line for early voting.

I was there for over four hours and I could see where traffic was exiting the building. The line of cars didn't let up that entire four plus hours I was there.

Apparently, it was so bad that the BOE set up another drop off location across the street in a parking lot (according to the local news). They said there was about a half hour wait to simply DROP OFF your absentee ballot (but people here can't drive so that may have contributed to the wait times).

I’m in PA, got my ballot Tuesday, took it to a drop box Wednesday, got an email today that it’s received. Stress free so far, although I’ll likely be drunk the entire first week of November, reason yet to be determined (hopefully celebratory drunk).

Sorry my post wasn’t about polls per second, but polls are only as good as voters being able to vote, so I thought I’d share.

Genuine question from an interested observer in the UK: why does it take you all so long to vote. Someone upthread says 4 hours! What is that fuckery?

Here in the UK, schools get election day off and they are turned into polling stations. Everyone votes within a ten minute walk from home. I’ve never had to queue for more than a minute or 2! How can it take so long?

R548, it is an intentional ploy by the Rethugs, in states where they are in charge, to do as much as possible to discourage Democratic voters from voting. They will assign fewer resources to urban areas where Democrats vote and greater resources to rural areas where their supporters are located. It doesn’t take that much to tip the scales away from Democratic strongholds and still appear to evenly distribute those resources. The lengthy lines are a disincentive to working parents who don’t have the time to devote 10 to 12 hours to an activity that should take about five minutes.

But, tRump and the Repukes overplayed their hand this time around, during a pandemic where many people have lost their jobs and have time to sit in lines. They tried to discredit the US Postal Service to cast doubt on the efficiency of mail-in ballots hoping to drive people to conclude that in-person voting in those lengthy lines was the only credible option. But, in doing that, they made everyone hyper-aware of the pitfalls they could encounter in voting. So everyone began devising a strategy as to how they would vote and insure that their votes were counted. Hence the massive numbers of people who are early voting.

Good summary r549 and one longer term tactic (REDMAP) is gerrymandering in which Repug state legislatures (w/governor's OK) redraw the state every 10 years (based on latest census data) to skew election of like party House reps and other officials. This is why it's also critical to vote every cycle at the national but also state/local levels

Repukes are cheaters, it is the only way they win.

Here is a good electoral map that shows where we are now and what is needed. When we get close we should fill out our own map and see who gets closest. Map is based on several good polls.

It's kind of scary. Things can go wrong with just a few states and we are toast.

R548, watch this from Vox.

Purging of voter rolls. People stay in line only to find out they’re purged.

Why voting is so hard for some.

R548x something to keep in mind is that limiting access to voting/voter suppression is not just unique to this election. The US had been doing this since post-Reconstruction. While marginally stabilized after after passage of the Voting Rights Act, the gutting of this bill in 2014 has accelerated the fuckery the GOP will partake in to deny people their right and accessibility to vote.

Thank you for all the replies. It’s a bit of an eye-opener.

Things aren’t perfect in the UK either. The government is trying to bring in a law which will require voters to take a photo ID to the polling station to vote. That would basically risk excluding people with no passport or driver’s license

I wonder if college kids are going to let us down again?

The rethugs have done that here as well, r557.

Since many urban dwellers use public transportation and don't have a car, they don't get a license. The "alternative" forms of ID accepted in OHIO do NOT include a passport (no address listed) nor a military ID (no address listed). If you can believe that shit.

Many license bureaus are located out in the burbs where it may be a few hours round trip on public transportation to get a state issued ID.

The rethugs have made as difficult as possible for minorities to vote. They know their voters are mostly located in the burbs so every local and state law regarding voting us for their own voters.

If you can prevent a majority of people from voting by whatever means, you can rule by winning with a minority of support. This is why they gerrymander, pack the courts, pass restrictive voter ID laws, send out disinformation about when and where to vote, set up fake drop boxes, lie and obfuscate.

It's the ONLY way they can win elections. If we had fair elections where it was a national holiday, plenty of urban polling locations and people were urged to vote and educated about voting, the GOP would be completely obliterated from the face of the earth.

Sure, you would probably have pockets of the loons and tards in red states running local government but they wouldn't be able to hold the rest of the country hostage or win a majority of seats nationally.

Dave Wasserman:

Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats.

538 has just added Public Religion Research Institute polls (taken Sept. 9-15) that have Trump up above Biden as much as 15%. Anyone know anything about these polls? They seem extreme outliers (even for mid September), but 538 ranks them A/B.

R561, it seems there may be an error. The links to the polls dont work. Sometime it happens at 538.

Aha, thanks, R562. I checked again and the Public Religion Research Institute polls listed on 538 now show Biden with double-digit leads, including new ones from mid-October. 538 is giving Biden a 10.5% lead today, down only slightly from 10.6% yesterday.

Whew!

[quote] Sure, you would probably have pockets of the loons and tards in red states running local government but they wouldn't be able to hold the rest of the country hostage or win a majority of seats nationally.

Hence, the United States feels like a very sick place. The majority is being led by a tyranny of the minority.

Yes R564. Soon to be ruled by QAnon supporters too.