Will Justin Trudeau Lose The Next Election To Conservatives

Justin Trudeau is hotter, so he has to win.

I didn't vote because I can't make that choice at this point... I think it is slightly less likely they would lose with Trudeau at the helm, but not by much. If he resigns I think it is highly likely they will win. The Conservatives will offer a bunch of short term, short sighted policies that benefit no one in the end. But. Trudeau the Sun King is a problem for me. Still, I'd hold my nose and vote for them

That said, His popularity has suffered due to WE. Polling out this morning:

Nearly half of Canadians would support an election being called if the federal watchdog finds Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to have violated the Conflict of Interest Act again over the WE charity affair, a new poll suggests. (It would be his third violation. At some point, you kind of have to wonder what ails the guy.)

The survey by Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies also suggests the WE controversy has taken a bite out of Trudeau’s popularity, as well as that of the federal Liberal party, putting the Conservatives within striking distance of victory.

The online poll of 1,531 adult Canadians took place July 31 to Aug. 2, in the days following Trudeau’s appearance before a parliamentary committee to answer questions about the deal with WE.

Perhaps most troubling for the prime minister and his Liberals is that support for the party among decided voters has slipped by six percentage points in the last two weeks, with the Conservatives, who have not yet elected their new leader, reaping the most recent benefits.

The poll shows 33 per cent of decided voters supporting the Liberals versus 31 per cent for the Conservatives and 20 per cent for the NDP. The Bloc followed with eight per cent and the Greens at six.

[quote]I think it is slightly less likely they would lose with Trudeau at the helm, but not by much. If he resigns I think it is highly likely they will win.

Badly typed. When I say they, I mean the Liberals. Trudeau only delivered a minority last time... seems difficult to see him delivering majority with this latest accomplishment.

R2 the poll you reference is an on-line poll and they are not known of its accuracy

People predicted he was going to lose last time and it didn't happen

R5 that was Andrew Scheer he was against

R4, thank you Yoda.

OK, let's pretend it doesn't exist.

No but he delivered a minority. And that's hard to govern with.

[quote] OK, let's pretend it doesn't exist.

especially when online polls are subject to spamming by bots

No, because the Conservatives do not have a platform applicable to nationwide Canadians. The CPC mutated to a yammering, oil-and-gas industry dominated, rural-white-male-fundie-grievance minority party suiting mostly Alberta and Saskatchewan.

R6 But people were predicting he was going to lose, and it didn't happened, not even close

No, it didn't happened.

He wonned a majority.

[quote] But people were predicting he was going to lose, and it didn't happened, not even close

Pollster Nik Nanos said Justin Trudeau DID NOT win the last election. It was Andrew Scheer that LOST the last election.

The strange thing about this polling showing a drop in Liberal support is the Conservative support. They have not budged from their normal 30% (note to Americans, Conservative support in Canada starts at a baseline of 30%)

Some might say "Well they don't have a leader yet" - true. So where is that lost Liberal support going to as the Bloc, NDP and Green have shown some marginal uptick in support,

What many pollsters are refusing to do is include Maxime Bernier Party & the new Wexit Party - That is why I suspect the Conservative are stuck at 30% . I know for a fact that a huge swath of Conservative voters say they will never vote Peter Mackay no matter what. They see him as "liberal light" and not a true Conservative. Hence the Conservative stuck at 30% and would mean vote splitting on the right come election time.

That's Mackay's dilemma, assuming he wins, which seems the outcome. If he runs on a platform that suits the hardcore in the West, he can't take the country. If he runs on a platform that is liberal light, he might have a shot. The Conservatives need to figure out who they want to be. If they chose Mackay, it's back up for debate.

[quote] If he runs on a platform that is liberal light, he might have a shot.

To win Conservatives need every single right-wing voter to support them. That is on top of the 10% of swing voters to get to 40%. I know for a fact there is a huge chunk of Conservative voters who say they will never vote for MacKay no matter what. They just don't trust him.

Now if he goes Liberal light, he would lose even more support from the base. The argument used to be Conservatives have no one else to vote for, so they could start at that 30% base of support and then move a bit left.

Not anymore as there are more options for Conservatives to vote for. The three main Right-Wing media outlets Rebel Media, True North & Post Millennial have all run anti-MacKay articles and that would just ramp up if he won the leadership, which would influence their readership to vote elsewhere.

Good... the more confounded the Conservatives are, the better. They may never be moderate again, which is bad for politics, but perhaps the NDP can fill the void and it becomes a contest with between the NDP (centre left) and the Liberals (slight centre left, centre), with the Conservatives as the third party.

"Simple question, if Justin Trudeau runs against Peter MacKay in the next election will be lose to MacKay"

Learn English, troll

I thought it was Stephen Harper and the IDU who determine the leader of the CPC. Sure candidates are allowed to campaign, but what decides who leads are voting machines that "malfunction", shady accounting of ballots, and a dozen ballot counts, like how Andrew Scheer attained leadership.

R14: But if he does run a national platform, the gas suckers and Wexit Wieners may defect to the People's Party or Reform Party 3.0 or whatever WESTERN POWER NOW party thing thing some asshole will create. Because the West (Alberta and Saskatchewan) with all it's gas is the only thing that matters. ONLY WEST!!!! ONLY GAS!!!!

What r5 said. We literally just went through this.

This is fantastic news! Hopefully it's a sign Carney will run in the next election, perhaps even as leader (though I'm still a Freeland fan).

Even if he doesn't run for leadership, he'd make an excellent finance minister.

R22, that's the question people will now be asking -- is Carney going to replace Bill Morneau?

One can only hope he does, R23. That, or takes the leadership and Jean-Yves Duclos becomes the new finance minister.

I'm so torn. I want Freeland as leader....but Carney would be soooo good too. Fingers crossed he runs.

I hope you're all prepared that the Cons and the NDP are going to make a huge deal out of the latest scandal. They've knocked Trudeau and the Liberals down a peg in the polls with the WE scandal and now this new one with the CRA, Telford and her husband crops up. Trudeau's done guys. He has to go for the good of the party.

What's the new one?

The PMO granted the rent relief contract to a private company that hired Telford's husband.

Oh, Christ. I don't care if it was proper... fucking hell.

Imagine Freeland and Harris working together on trade! Couple of rockstars!

Oh, Christ.

The WE scandal is going to bring him down. He's nothing more than another corrupt politician.

We know, R32. That's why Freeland should take over leadership, and soon.

Now the Bloc leader is calling for a confidence vote, says he will vote to bring the Liberals down.

That could backfire on the Bloc, R34.

I don't want an election. Does anybody want an election (in Canada... the States needs one... badly.) I think it would backfire on the lot of them. Now is not the time.

Now isn't the time, R36. This time next year will be good. Hopefully Freeland or Carney will be leading the Liberals by then.

Well, looks like Trudeau's about to fire Morneau.

Anything substantiated yet, R38, or is it just political gossip so far?

He's holding a press conference in the opposition's press room in 15 min, R39.

He resigned.

Fired

Who will the new Finance Minister be?

Carney, Freeland, or Duclos.

Carney doesn't have a seat in Parliament yet, so isn't it more likely to be Duclos (who is already Treasury Board President)?

I'd agree, R46. I'm leaning toward Duclos. I want Freeland to stay on as Deputy, especially now and with the situation down south. She can handle the orange turd better than anyone.

He's on now. He seems annoyed.

It sounds like Morneau will not be running in the next election.

He's done, R49. He's resigning.

Yes, R50, he's resigning as Finance Minister and also apparently will leave Parliament altogether in the next election.

Not a good look for the Libs to lose their FM at this time.

Morneau says he was not asked by Trudeau to step down.

Yeah, and who believes that, R53?

He's quitting, R51. Quitting outright. There will be a by - election in his riding.

R55, Toronto Centre is a safe Liberal seat so we'll see if Mark Carney runs there.

Should be interesting for sure, R56, but CBC just said that Carney is a "no." Who knows though?

Carney would be elected in that riding in a minute. Morneau says he wants to be put forward as President of the OECD. Trudeau is said to support it.

Sounds like a plan.

Do you believe that though, R58? Sure, he's going to try for the OECD position, but I don't believe for a moment that that's why he decided to "step down" now.

Hon I think’ it’s the deal. The resignation from parliament now... is too convenient.

It's Freeland.

And now Trudeau wants to prorogue Parliament until October.

This is getting stupid.

To prorogue parliament is not a great idea. I think he's cutting the ground out from under himself, but I also suppose they're going to come roaring back with a megaspending infrastructure and social program. That may be so popular (and there are a lot of good things could be done) that he restores his popular support and can exit having made a massive impact of the country. If that isn't legacy, what is? That's when you go.

The downside is it goes so far it seems excessive. Trudeau's tin ear is now inarguable.

But I bet they carry it off. Interesting that Freeland took the job. She's a good Liberal but I don't see her as a hardcore progressive. If Morneau was too restrained I have a hard time imagining Freeland printing money.

Yeah, this is bad, R63. It's not a good look, especially after the Covid hiatus and is a play right our of Harper's book. He's going to take some hits over this one.

I like Freeland, and think she's great in her current role as deputy. I love that Trump hates her and that the male con premiers in this country listen to her. I want her as the next leader of the Libs. I don't even care that she's not as progressive as Trudeau and some of the other Libs.

I wonder who'll run in Morneau's old seat since they'll need to have a by election.

Probably Carney, don't you think? Although, the NDP might give it a hard run, sensing opportunity. Toronto Centre is crowned by Rosedale but in a majority is lower income... I wouldn't be surprised to see Layton II or Wong Tam give it a run. I have always believed there is an agreement among the downtown hard left about who will go where, municipally, provincially and federally. Though then I hear even the left is constantly knifing one another behind the scenes so hard to say what deals, if they exist, will hold.

I think they said no Carney, R65. I thought Toronto Centre is Liberal safe??

Who said no?

Carney, R67.

It's very very probably Liberal safe., R66. It certainly should be and historically always was. But these days, I don't take anything for granted given how unsettled everything is. The change of ridings a couple years ago has the potential to jiggle voting blocs. The creation of east west University Rosedale now has a Liberal pocket at the east end but a high concentration of NDP in the west, so it's represented by NDP on council (Layton II) and some NDPer at Queen's Park. The NDP basically ignore it as much as possible and concentrate on where the core is. Freeland is the MP but she's impossible to dislodge and rightly so, unless the whole party is going down like the Tories after Mulroney ran away.

Who were the they that said no to Carney?

"I think they said no Carney, [R65]."

Last night the media reported that the Libs said Carney was only going to be involved as an advisor, R70, and that he had no plans to leave his UN gig.

OK. That could be true. Or it could change. Sounds like the kind of thing you say until you don't.

I think the Liberals will want to run a real star candidate in the by-election, given the unsettled circumstances. I don't know how long but he will have tons of time to call the by-election. He will probably wait until the big reveal re. spending to goose the economy, so it's an assured easy win and so any anger toward him dies down. I don't mean to suggest I think Toronto isn't going to stay hard Liberal red, I do, I just think there are variables that could result in the unexpected. In this economic and social climate it is easy to envision the NDP could mount an effective challenge in the largest urban centre in the country.

[quote]Toronto Centre is crowned by Rosedale

Rosedale used to be in Toronto Centre but it is now in the University riding represented by Freeland.

No it isn't. Rosedale is all north of Bloor.

map.

Sorry R73, those two posts were meant to acknowledge you're right. Rosedale used to crown the riding but has been shifted east west to University Rosedale. Freeland carries it but it's NDP at the other two levels because of the concentration of votes in the west end of the riding. I used to be Toronto Centre Rosedale and I miss it because we could always count on solidly Liberal. With the NDP you're on the outside at Queen's Park, always. Though I expect there's a good chance a good Liberal can dethrone the NDP MPP in the next go round.

Thanks, R76.

Here's Freeland's riding of University-Rosedale:

His ass alone will win the election.

Dominic Leblanc will replace Freeland as minister of intergovernmental affairs

Chrystia's on now!

Oh, and Trudeau just said he'll be running in the next federal election.

University Rosedale now has the population density that tips it toward whatever the west end wants (in the majority.) Which kinda sucks. I guess the east end plays kingmaker when the polls are evenly split.

This govt needs less than 15 seats to be a majority. Unless the liberals want Trudeau gone, I doubt the government will fall. There will be enough sweetener in the throne speech to get the 15 votes the government needs to survive

Justin Trudeau will be leading the Liberals in the next election - that will be his last one before Freeland or Carney step up to replace him.

Apparently Trudeau will be unveiling some form of UBI when Parliament returns next month. Rumor is that Morneau's departure had more to do with that than the WE scandal.

From the article at R86 -

[quote] The differences between Mr. Trudeau and the only finance minister he has had were slow-burning at first. There were repeated disagreements between the PMO and the minister’s office throughout the pandemic over the size of emergency measures and their policy rationale.

[quote] The government official pointed to the May announcement of $2.5-billion for seniors as one of several points of contention. The official claimed PMO staff were more focused on announcing policies based on political motivations rather than genuine policy need. In the case of seniors, for instance, most are on fixed incomes that would not be affected by the pandemic.

I actually wondered about this myself when the they announced the money for seniors. Made absolutely no sense to me. I remember how when CERB first came out certain groups, including seniors started putting pressure on the Feds for money. It made no sense to give them any since unless they were working and lost their job, their income wasn't affected.

Honestly, maybe. It seems like Canada has been turning red, but Coronavirus being turned into a political thing has been a huge win for the left, so it's hard to tell anymore.

What do you think of a possible UBI, R88?

I don't know if it will win the Libs any votes. Young people like the NDP and Greens, middle class suburban liberals may not like the UBI concept and turn them off.

Are you American, R88? Turning red in Canada isn't the same as the US.

Same thing.

I like the concept of Universal Basic Income. About the only thing the incompetent Kathleen Wynne managed in Ontario was a trial of the concept that actually worked on every level. Broken clock twice a day, all that, but it can't be taken away that it was working. So I am highly in favour of it in principle. I am curious to see what the Liberals come up with but am reserving yeah lets do it until we see what it actually looks like.

Justin will probably ask WE to run it.

It needs to be rolled out properly, R92 and can't be seen as a "disincentive" to work.

Yes, because most Canadian voters are just as stupid as American voters.

That's part of my concern, R92... it is a good and sensible plan that does improve the lives of people at the bottom of the heap and does not disincentive work because it doesn't punish it.

But Justin, who is plainly incapable of seeing the world through anything but his own eyes, will probably compose a poem about it and wag his finger at the country when he assures them they will do the right thing, because he is here! Which may get in the way of successfully implementing a good thing. Because most of the country probably has limited tolerance for being lectured by Justin these days.

Here's hoping it is a good and workable plan because I believe it is efficient, fair, just and the way of the future so we may as well take a leadership role.

Justin's looking hotter than usual today.

Premier Doug Ford praises Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "partner to all the premiers."

"You wonder why I'm always up here praising him? Because he did an incredible job."

PM: "Thank you, Doug, for your kind words and your partnership."

Big delays tonight with the Conservative Leadership vote.

Results were supposed to be announced hours ago.

Major problems with the machines ripping the ballots and having to be recounted.

Andrew Scheer is rage tweeting, just like Trump did the other night.

R100, Scheer gave a very bitter farewell speech, too.

Compared parties on the left in Canada to communist parties in Eastern Europe, attacked "leftish" professors and told conservatives to go to right-wing news sites instead of watching mainstream news.

Last minute prediction - it's going to be Erin O'Toole. I'm shocked.

R102, O'Toole's campaign manager claims they have exit polls of 51,000 con voters that point to O'Toole winning on the 2nd or 3rd ballot:

I'm watching Barton and Solomon, and it just hit me. It's going to be O'Toole, all because of Lewis voters who will rank him 2nd.

R104, Yes, that's one way the vote could go.

It all depends on what MacKay's strength is on the 1st ballot.

The analysts say that MacKay needs to get over 40% on the first ballot.

Being reported that Erin O'Toole has won. Not confirmed as yet.

Mackay leads 1st Ballot, but with only 33.52%

He's toast, R108.

[quote]Simple question, if Justin Trudeau runs against Peter MacKay in the next election will be lose to MacKay

[quote]This despite leading Canada through Covid19 and the Pandemic

What kind of fucked up English is this? Fuck you, Svetlana!!!

Buckle up, Canadians. O'Toole is Trump lite, just like Andrew Scheer, only he's smarter than Scheer.

Exactly, R109.

Mackay underperformed on the 1st Ballot. He needed to get 40% on the 1st ballot, so to only lead with 33% is probably fatal.

MacKay got crushed in Quebec.

They just called it. Erin O'Toole. This is terrible.

R113, so it will be Trudeau vs. O'Toole.

Wasn't Mackay supposed to be the one who could do best against the Liberals?

Yup, R114. But O'Toole brings another threat.

Trading Scheer for O'Toole is like picking Tweedledum over Tweedledee. Neither can, or should, become PM.

O'Toole and his family are as fugly as Scheer and his family are.

I see a lot of people on Twitter saying, Trudeau just won the next election. Remember when Doug Ford won the Ontario Conservative leadership and everyone was like Wynne is going to get another term......just saying we need to be super vigilant. O'Toole cannot become Prime Minister.

[quote]Remember when Doug Ford won the Ontario Conservative leadership and everyone was like Wynne is going to get another term.....

I thought Wynne was already considered a goner at that point.

But you're right that nothing can be taken for granted.

Here's the problem with O'Toole, R118. He's a Trumper type, former military, but....he's not stupid. He will attract the right wing, people who might have voted for the ultra right parties like wexit etc...

The Libs gained because so called "soft" Liberals, who may have voted for MacKay, will now stick with the Libs.

I really don't like Justin Trudeau. Like really don't like him. But I cannot see him being defeated by O'Toole. Was less certain about MacKay but that apparently isn't a problem. Canada is as screwed up economically over COVID as anybody and the belief is the Liberals are going to bring in a Guaranteed Annual Income. It will change the game. It's the kind of thing we like. I honestly don't perceive O'Toole as a threat. And I really don't like Trudeau.

One alternate spin.... there was talk JT was eyeing the exit before COVID hit. So he creates a major legacy in Guaranteed Annual Income (which the NDP will support in a minority parliament) and then he goes. No finer exit. And with a fresh Liberal leader and a crowing achievement, the Conservatives are left in the dust again.

I don't like Trudeau much either, R121. MacKay was a direct threat (despite what the Trudeau fanboy here said).

O'Toole will rally all the "Canadian patriot" types. That's what concerns me.

I take back what I said about O'Toole's family. The kids look fine and are nowhere near as ugly as Scheer's. His wife is very fat though. Not a good look for a PM's wife.

r120 former military as in no nonsense common sense guy, or Iron Cross Airborne type? A populist here is not exactly the same thing as a populist in America. Honest question--I haven't been paying attention; too much life shit & other news.

O'Toole really won't appeal to anyone who didn't vote for Scheer, and, fortunately, that's not enough to win. He has the same platitudes as talking points, and we're not interested.

For a man who hits women and wears blackface, I can't understand how you all allow him to get a pass.

What a bunch of hypocrites you all are.

Scheer Troll Alert

r124 I don't know about that. I think you'd have to do an analysis of the people who didn't vote to see if they voted for someone else or just stayed home b/c Scheer was grossly incompetent & not leader material.

There are keystone issues here, too--a lot of the other issues are really about a handful of basic ones. The drug epidemic is one, so is rural/urban divide. Corporations & the 1% are using the former particularly to wipe out middle/working classes & marginalized people. The left is losing a lot of voters to pander to activists and extremists at their peril.

The NDP is in trouble. They've always had their limo contingent (i.e. Bob Rae) but now they've taken over the party; they allow a radical fringe leeway on local issues. This plays out in the rural/urban divide. That means they deal in issues that will get them camera time, but they have no substance (Jagmeet Singh harping on Trudeau's leadership is a case in point). This leaves issues affecting the average person on the ground being dealt with by local NDP who are career pols and/or activist extremists and they are failing communities. That means a) what happened in Ontario, & b) getting votes at the Federal level will become more difficult as conditions deteriorate provincially & municipally.

The Liberals have gone total corporate 1%. They used to have extreme members within the party who would act as an informal check/balance system, but those are long gone. They also have too many stupid people. Say what you will about Trudeau Sr, he was not stupid. Junior is more about popular opinion, but he doesn't really know the issues well enough to see potential problems. He also won't listen to qualified party members, like Bill Morneau, who tried to steer him away from social media positions. The immigration/border issues are a prime example. He pissed everyone off on all sides, & didn't know what logistical impact it would have on the ground. It also broke a strong Canadian tenet of fairness that is deep-seated.

If the Conservatives get off their asses and stop nominating backroom, politics as usual candidates they could do very well. If they find an old school Red Tory, they'll be in. That person would clearly & publicly denounce the extreme right fringe & kick some people the fuck out. Have a traditional Canadian "live & let live" social attitude once you've moved toward the middle, concentrate on the economy & one keystone issue.

R122 Was his wife wearing a tarp at the convention?

R123, O'Toole is a lawyer as well. He played to the right during the campaign. I'm sure he's Harper's pick.

R127: Your post is incoherent garbage with absolutely no examples or citations to back up any of your claims.

R119 Wynne's numbers (or at least the Ontario Liberal numbers) went up in the polls in the weeks following Ford's leadership win, but plummet once the election campaign began. That being said, a major reason Ford won (besides the hate for the Libs), is because during the final two weeks of the election, the Liberals campaigned harder against the NDP than the conservatives. Why? The Liberals were on the cusp on a total washout. The needed to keep as many seats as they could (there was one point where polling had them only winning 1 seat) and the NDP posed more of a threat in riding they could win.

Was watching CTV news earlier today. If O'Toole can make inroads in the 905 and rural 519, he'll win a minority. A new polls also shows the overwhelming majority of Canadians (77%) do not want an election this year. However, 52% of conservatives supports do want an election. I am trying to find a link to this polls it was by Agnus.

But arguably if a majority don't want an election they will punish the party seen as causing it. They can't do anything until Parliament reconvenes and then you gotta guess Justin will pull a unicorn out of his hat. Or ass. So his popularity could rise. The NDP will have a huge investment in Guaranteed National Income. It underscores the importance of voting Liberal come the day (which I do a lot of the time half heartedly. Maybe quarter heartedly. But a vote for the NDP has the effect of strengthening the vote for the Conservatives.)

The problem then is the Liberals mistake pragmatism for wide spread affection. I remember when they were at the door last federal election (which amazed me here in central Toronto because the Liberals just take us for granted, although they'd lost the riding provincially in the prior vote) and I said to the canvasser I would probably vote Liberal as I liked my MP (Freeland) very much and thought she'd be good in the big chair but that I was tired of Justin's ego and poetry classes. She just sort of smiled, grimly, and offered "Yeah, well, it is what it is."

Always tied to an unhappy circumstance, that phrase.

R133 you already Trudeau is going to lose to the Conservatives in the next election. So not sure what that whole post is all about.

R133, some of my relatives are involved in the Liberal party. Their MP told them directly that she lost because of Trudeau. This former MP was involved in the community, was well-liked, and stole the riding from the Cons. Trudeau was not an asset last time around, unlike 2015.

Vote splitting on the left caused the con candidate to come up the middle and win. My aunt, who did a ton of door knocking and visited/called people who supported the Liberals in the past, was often told that though people liked the MP and knew she was a hard worker, they were sick of Trudeau.

R135 so you agree that Justin Trudeau is going to face a HUMILIATING Loss to the Conservatives in the next election,

I'm saying it's not impossible, R136. Never underestimate the power of stupidity.

R137 just say Trudeau will lose badly. At least be honest, like your other posts.

Justin is 100 times more handsome than OP, so he will not lose in the next election. End of.

So....my parents live in the 905. They voted for Ford, but voted for Trudeau in 2019 because they hated Ford. Now the love Ford again thanks to COVID and they said O'Toole can't be any worse than Trudeau.........

Careful, R140, you'll have the Trudeau concern troll all over you if you dare say a thing against the anointed one.

Concerned? There's only one fat, old, hideous Anti-Trudeau cunttroll who keeps starting stupid threads every day. Hey, but the cunt was quiet for about a month though after Justin won the election. Talking about humiliation. hahahahahahahahaha

[quote]you already Trudeau is going to lose to the Conservatives in the next election.

Huh? I have never said that. And while I don't like Trudeau I am a Liberal.

I'm dealing with that one note, rocking back and forth but if you don't like Trudeau you can't vote moron, aren't I?

Yes, R143, that's the guy. Criticize Trudeau and you're a hater who shouldn't vote.

Toronto Star:

NEW: Premier Doug Ford says he won't campaign for new #CPC Leader @ErinOTooleMP in the next federal election, says he's too busy running Ontario and fighting #COVID19. Not mentioned: feds froze him out last campaign, saw him as a liability.

The Tories will discover that the real liability is O'Toole himself.

New Ledger poll conducted today:

show as 6-point gain for the Liberals and a 7-point drop for the conservatives. Liberals at 39% Cons at 27% and NDP 19%

R147 More from that polls:

42% do not want an election until at least 2022.

38% want an election this fall (the strongest support for this is within the conservative base..surprise, surprise)

Interestingly: 55% believe that Liberals should work closely with one of the other parties prevent an election and 44% stated they would be more likely to blame the opposition for a fall election.

51% said they are less likely to vote for Conservative due to O'Toole's win.

Liberals are leading by large margins in Ontario, Atlantic and BC. The Bloc and Liberals are in a statistical tie in Quebec.

Conservatives ahead in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan (although the Wexit is stealing some of the conservatives points in Alberta).

^ This seems entirely credible to me. Conservatives are in a kind of a bind. There are some regular, Red Tories at the provincial level and the federal level, but they can never prevail because the process for picking a new leader is so insular that the fucked up, wacky base fucks it up and picks a fringe leader.

Which would seem good except after enough years the Liberals always manage to piss enough voters off to make a change of government and then, by association, the Liberals have made the NDP look bad too (because they're all painted as wasteful tax and spenders) so the Conservatives get in and the nation is stuck with whatever hardhearted maniac leads them.

It would be better for the country to actually have a moderate alternative. Same for the States. As odious as it seems, better to have somebody like a Charlie Dent or Maryland’s Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker of Mass, or Phil Scott of Vermont, running a healthy Republican Party than have a pendulum swing or freak event install Trumps and McConnells at the same time. It would be hard, maybe impossible, to let the moderates thrive again in the Rethuglicans if present but I'd argue they are almost always inevitable so better the best of the worst than the dog's breakfast there is now.

r149 I agree with your post, but I'd add the wildcard: a good NDP leader. The "Good Leader, Bad Policies" albatross that hung over the party's neck is gone IMHO with the demise of the unions (I hated the weighted union vote back in the day). Unfortunately, so is their run of good leaders (RIP Jack Layton) If the party takes a strong but fair stand against the "woke" left, comes towards the middle & finds a good leader they will easily will a Federal (or even Provincial) election. If they were smart, they'd tackle the drug epidemic (and everything that comes with it) using a community-based, secular 4 pillar solution. That alone will get them a lot of urban voters.

R150 I don't think the drug epidemic is a big enough problem to move most voters to trust the NDP, fairly or unfairly, but perception matters. For a good NDP leader, the trust deficit is the big obstacle. I liked Jack Layton very much but I never voted NDP during his reign and certainly wouldn't now. I consider myself centre left and I vote Liberal. Look at Mike Layton's twitter feed, for example, and tell me how a regular voter relates to that. Social change is the last thing you run on. It has so little to do with kitchen table and other than corruption elections, the kitchen table decides every election. But if the party moves toward the centre, what is the point of them? The Liberals exist.

A new Abacus poll confirms the findings of the Leger and Ipsos polls from either this week: Liberal support has fallen and Trudeau's popularity has dipped below O'Toole's. Liberals are bleeding support to both the conservatives and NDP. Interestingly, the data shows the this dip in Trudeau's popularity is attributed more to his decision to prorogue parliament than to the WE scandal. The big worry is that Conservatives are gaining in Ontario, particularly in the 905 area.

R152 All the polls are showing the Liberals are losing ground. Right now, the regional polls show that the Liberals are about 5 points a head in Ontario. So it's likely if an election were held today, we'd end up with another liberal minority. Justin's decision to prorogue parliament in the middle of pandemic was absolutely bad optics ( I said so earlier in this thread) and that coupled with the fact that closing parliament disbanded the committee looking into the WE scandal just added more fuel to the fire. It's stupid because the WE scandal wasn't really as big of issue as the Cons and media made it out to be. Polls showed most Canadians didn't care. But by shutting down the investigation, it implies (even if that is not the intention) he has something to hide.

Seriously, Trudeau has surrounded himself with terrible advisors and has a lacklustre track record. Five years ago he won the largest mandate of any government since Chretien in 1993 and five years later he's hanging on by a thread. He has an image problem of being mostly talk with little action. If I were Trudeau, I would work with the NDP to ensure there is no election, and then actually deliver on these post-covid reforms he's promising. If he does that, he might just win another term. The last thing this country needs is a conservative government.

R153 should Justin Trudeau resign now so he can avoid a humiliating loss to Erin O'Toole and the Conservatives?

I agree, R153, but as I always maintain, if Canadians elect the Cons, then they deserve what they get, no different than if the Americans reelect Trump.

This will sound selfish, but a Con government doesn't negatively affect me at all. If people are stupid enough to split the progressive vote and we end up with PM O'Toole, then so be it. People will be sorry after a term or two and then the Liberals will win again. It's a cycle. Trudeau needs to sway NDPers to vote Liberal otherwise he loses.

R155 should Justin Trudeau resign now so he can avoid a humiliating loss to Erin O'Toole and the Conservatives?

It is the same two people who are posting on this thread over and over and over again about how Trudeau is driving the Liberal Party to the ground

This thread should just be closed for only those two posters so they can continue to commiserate with one another.

You're right, R157. Only people who heap praise blindly on Trudeau have valid opinions. No criticism of Trudeau allowed, EVER. God some of you are just as bad as Trumpers.

[quote] No criticism of Trudeau allowed, EVER. God some of you are just as bad as Trumpers.

Go criticize, go for it. Criticize all his policies and the way he is running the country.

But you are also pushing for him to quit, and those are two different things.

No, they're not two different things, R159. If I were happy with his policies and had little to criticize, then I wouldn't want him to resign!

Go ahead and live in your happy little Trudeau bubble. As you can see from the polls, he and the Liberals are losing ground. The exact opposite of what you said would happen before the Con leadership vote.

[quote] If I were happy with his policies and had little to criticize, then I wouldn't want him to resign!

Then you are not a progressive, but a Conservative.

Seriously, R161, fuck off.

R157 1) We live in a fucking democracy were we are free to criticize all our political leaders, even the ones we vote for. This "blind loyalty" view espoused by people on both the left and right is scary. It's anti-democratic and why you end up with want to be despots like Trump.

2) Yes I criticize Trudeau, but that doesn't mean I won't vote for him if push comes to shove. As an gay man, I will NEVER vote conservative. I will take a 100 Trudeau over one O'Toole.

3) I don't want Trudeau to resign. I want him to get his shit together. His problems are largely self-made and it's unfortunate because he rode a huge wave of support back in 2015 and squandered so much of it.

R162 when you resort to using profanity, you know I'm right and you just lost the argument

R163 wait for the Throne Speech

And, if you think that the PM is a true progressive, you need to give your head a shake. Just ask Indigenous people. Look at his response over the Macdonald statue. Look at his environmental policies. Why can't gay men donate blood in this country yet? He's not really a progressive at all, he just likes the label.

The media in Canada (CTV in particular) is pushing Erin O'Toole HARD - because he is the type of Leader those privileged older white men running the media want

A red tory who is socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk with a bit of foreign protectionism thrown in.

[quote] Just ask Indigenous people. Look at his response over the Macdonald statue. Look at his environmental policies. Why can't gay men donate blood in this country yet?

And I truly believe an NDP Government would do the exact same as Trudeau is doing right now with all of the above.

No, R164, you're not right. You called me a Conservative because I don't like some of Trudeau's policies, and I told you to fuck off. Liberal voters are free to criticize the leader of the party. Do you think Republicans should refrain from criticizing Trump, or should they just toe the line?

R168, so you admit that Trudeau is weak on reconciliation, the environment, and that he lied during his campaign about the ban on gay men donating blood? Those are some of the issues I have with him, and frankly, we're not talking about what the NDP would or wouldn't do, we're talking about Trudeau and the Liberals.

R169 great go criticize him on that - but my point is I don't think any other party would do anything differently than what he is doing right now on those three you have an issue with,

It doesn't matter what another party would or wouldn't do, R170. It is what the Liberals are doing and not doing that counts since they are the government. They can't keep running on "we have a weak-ass environmental policy, we suck at reconciliation, but we're not the Cons..." and expect people to be happy with them, especially since most people are not dyed in the wool Liberals.

I'm not happy with Trudeau dithering on things like the environment, reconciliation, and one ridiculous scandal after another. He's like the unpopular kid trying to make friends on all sides, but achieving nothing. That's my issue with him, and I had very high hopes for him in 2015 and even hoped he could pull it together in 2019. It appears he can't get it together and I have a problem with that.

R164, you seem to be confusing the reaction to obstinacy with the reaction to intelligence. Which makes a lot of sense when you compare one against the other.

Even Chantal Hébert isn't convinced the Liberals will win the next election.

WE closing its doors in Canada could either be a good or bad thing for the Liberals.

FFs, now they're saying Morneau violated election/campaign rules in 2019.

r175 sounds like someone wants to make sure he's not a political threat.

Interesting take, R176.

CTV is claiming that Canada's pandemic alert system was sidelined.

[quote] Even Chantal Hébert isn't convinced the Liberals will win the next election.

That is NOT what Chantal is saying - the gist of her column is that Trudeau needs to balance his New Green Energy Deal with an eye of fiscal restraint.

That he needs to have a credible financial policy to deal with his New Green Energy Deal. If not then he loses part of his coalition that are fiscal hawks.

[quote] It appears he can't get it together and I have a problem with that.

As R171 says

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

R179 She saying that ... and a lot more. She says: "Five years into Trudeau’s tenure, voter fatigue with the incumbent could well translate into fatigue with charisma — a feature in short supply in O’Toole’s political persona. ... many voters craving a return to some semblance of pre-pandemic normalcy." Basically, she's saying Trudeau is misreading the room, that may Canadians are still yearning for a return to a more pre-COVID normality. I think most people have their eyes on getting through the pandemic and then worrying about what comes next. Let's face it, we're just starting to enter the second wave now. Hébert is saying Trudeau's greatest asset in 2015 (his charisma) may now stands to become his greatest weakness. People want stability at a time of crisis and sadly if you look at history, times of crisis often result in a turn to the right politically. I also think the narrative is changing, I think people aren't buying his claims that he doesn't want an election. I am betting on him putting forward a Throne Speech that he knows neither the NDP or Cons will support and triggering an election.

Trudeau went from one of the largest majority wins to a solid minority. Historically in the last fifty years, no government that has gone from a majority to a minority has been re-elected once that minority falls. I really have a feeling in my gut that if we have an election in October, it's going to be a conservative win. And that will be a disaster for Canada.

One interesting thing, Trudeau is going out of his way to be seen with Doug Ford. Today, he made his third appearance with Ford in just under two weeks, while O'Toole has not had any public appearances. Ford is sitting at about 60% approval in Ontario (makes me sick). To me this seems like a strategy to try and hold on to Liberal seats in the 905. Ford, in turn, seems to be going out of his way not to be seen with O'Toole. He only has mentioned him once, congratulating him on his win and then said he won't be campaigning for him if there's an election.

Federal election seems less likely now with the upswing in cases in Ontario. The province is on the cusp of an out of control situation. Trudeau needs Ontario to stay in power.

R184 both the leader of the Bloc and the Conservatives have COVID. Trudeau has called two by-elections in Ontario for October 26. Trudeau has also pulled back on the "reformational" tone upcoming throne speech to a more subdued one. It's sounds less and less like that there will be an election this fall. I think Trudeau is going to put enough stuff in to appease the NDP (e.g. more money for child care, and changes to EI possible extensions of CERB) and that's about it. It's seems increasingly likely regions of the country (most notably Ontario) will be going back into some form of semi-lockdown by October.

It appears the Liberals have made concession to the NDP surrounding CERB and it seems an election won't happen until at least the spring now.

Thanks for the update, R186.

What was the agreement on CERB between the Libs & NDP?

The media is solidly behind Erin O'Toole

when you have all of talk radio, CBC, CTV, Global, Sun Media Newspaper Chain, National Post, Globe & Mail and Toronto Sun ALL BACKING Erin O'Toole

How does Justin Trudeau stand a chance with that entire propaganda campaign behind O'Toole?

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

This is why he should have stepped down, R188.

R182 Basically the issue was that the Liberals are transitional CERB into a new form of EI. In the throne speech, the Liberals were pledge $1400/month to people on the new CERB down from the $2000 CERB is presently giving. The NDP said they would not support the government is the Liberals didn't up the monthly payouts back to $2000/month. Additionally, the NDP wanted a national paid sick day program laid out, and the foundations for some kind of Basic income program for a post-covid Canada. Today, the Liberals announced they would up the monthly EI payments to $2000/month and have created a national sick day program. People who are COVID positive or have to self-isolate will now get 14 days paid sick time from the government. Regarding UBI, Freeland has said it is something the party is going to discuss in the months ahead.

Still nothing for small business owners.

R191 the wage subsidy being extended until next summer. Doug Ford in Ontario keeps pledging rent assistance for small businesses but like most of his promises he never comes through.

Maybe so, R192, but they're blaming Trudeau for everything. Two of them were on Power on Politics today doing just that. They say that the wage subsidy is a failure and does nothing to help them pay their bills. My guess is that many will go out of business soon now that the so called 2nd wave is here.