Joe Biden’s Polling Lead Grows After Protests, While Most Americans Now Deem Trump a Racist

I hope Biden sends Trump and Melania a giant turd once he wins.

[QUOTE] Joe Biden on Tuesday blistered President Donald Trump a day after police drove back peaceful protesters near the White House so Trump could pose with a Bible before a damaged church. Biden said Trump's “narcissism has become more important than the nation that he leads.”

[QUOTE]The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee delivered a speech at Philadelphia's City Hall, addressing the civil unrest across America following the death of George Floyd. Biden said "the moment has come” to deal with systemic racism and deeply ingrained economic inequality — and insisted that the nation can't wait until November's election and its outcome.

[QUOTE] But Biden stepped up his criticism of Trump as he works to elevate his voice in the national debate — after more than two months of the campaign for the White House being frozen amid the outbreak of the coronavirus.

[QUOTE]“This president today is part of the problem and accelerates it,” Biden said, adding that Trump is “consumed with his blinding ego."

[QUOTE]Biden opened his speech by repeating "I can't breathe."

[QUOTE] Biden noted that “peaceful protesters” were dispersed from the “doorstep of the people’s house, the White House” using tear gas and flash grenades to stage what he called a “photo op” publicity stunt.

[QUOTE]“The president held up a Bible,” Biden added. “I just wished he opened it once in awhile instead of brandishing it.”

[QUOTE] “Look, the presidency is a big job. Nobody will get everything right. And I won’t either,” Biden said, but promised, "I won’t fan the flames of hate.”

Joe did very well this morning in Philly.

NOW he’s a racist???

It is very hard to get many white people to believe someone is racist unless they are literally caught in a klan hood. Many white people are deeply emotionally invested in the idea that racism doesn't exist and there's nothing about society that needs to change

And, still wins re-election. People, we need to vote to make sure this idiot doesn't win.

Oh, shit! Now Miller will tell Trump to nuke the protestors to get his poll numbers up.

Biden should be leading Trump more than 5 points. Biden is a shit candidate. People know he's going to do nothing to help.

Do you really think they people protesting are looking up to Joe Biden as their leader? The man has a history of racism himself. And he's basically a conservative who has had a very pro-prison record and all sorts of things that don;t endear him to the black community.

Except that black people clearly supported him in the primary. Nice try tough. And no, he's not "basically a conservative". Fuck off with that BS.

Ignore the Trumptard at R10.

R9 Other polling show Biden up by 10 points. It doesn't mean much, other than the trend shows Trump losing support.

Fuck yeah!

[quote]Biden is a shit candidate.

I disagree. I already liked and supported VP Biden, but the more that I have heard him speak through all of this mess, the more I have come to like, respect, and support, him more. If nothing else, he calms my nerves.

NICE TRY, BORIS @ r9! How desperate you are.

Trump has handled both Covid and the protests so disastrously. At least trying to bring the country together is a major job of the President.

He's not even trying. Everyone sees what an utter buffoon he is. Sure, he has his cult followers, but everyone else sees it very clearly.

[quote] Biden is a shit candidate.

compared to Trump?

And that's the message Biden needs right now. While Trump will make things worse for his own benefit, Biden will only try to calm tensions.

Biden is the president that can let people go back to not caring about politics every single day

If Biden is a "shit candidate", what does that make the other Dems who lost the primary?

Joe did very well this morning in Philly.

Yes, he did do well; I was afraid he was going to have one of his senior moments & bungle it and while he did stumble a couple of times, by the end he hit his stride & gave a very eloquent speech.

But dear lord does he look old; I just hope he can make it to election day.....

How can conservatives believe that Donald Trump actually cares about them?

[QUOTE] Biden should be leading Trump more than 5 points.

He is. But to imply that a different Democrat would be leading Trump by some massive, insurmountable lead shows me that you don’t know much about America, R9.

I worry about whether the country will last to election day. Trump knows he's badly losing. That was the point of that stunt yesterday. When he gets polling back that shows him doing even worse now he's going to go for all out martial law.

R23 is exactly right. Obama's won by just 7 points in 2008 and it was considered a landslide. That was enough for him to carry Indiana for crying out loud.

[quote]But dear lord does he look old;

I disagree. I don't know who Biden's stylist is but they are bringing it home! Every time I see Biden he looks distinguished, sophisticated, and presidential! What a contrast to that buffoon that wears way too much tanner, ill-fitting suits, and terribly knotted ties. Biden comes across as cool, calm, and collected, while the the idiot currently in White House looks like he can barely breathe and will have a heart attack or stroke out at any minute.

Yeah I thought Joe looked better than usual.

If our military leaders were worth a shit they would have gone in and arrested Trump, most of his cabinet, and many Republicans in Congress months back and put Joe Biden into the Presidency. We're past the point that the future of this nation is at stake.

I'm not saying Biden looked bad - he's well put together, fit, trim & you can still tell he was a handsome devil in his day - he just seemed *really* old to me - but then I guess hi def is no one's friend.

NICE TRY, NATASHA @ r28.

We don't do military coups in this country. That's your shithole.

I like Joe. He's a decent man who was liberal when it wasn't cool to be liberal. He will the perfect palate cleanser for the country, to help us get rid of the mess of the last 4 years.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

[QUOTE] If our military leaders were worth a shit they would have gone in and arrested Trump, most of his cabinet, and many Republicans in Congress months back and put Joe Biden into the Presidency.

That would be such an awful thing. It would be the end of America.

Joe does look old but if you can look old and statesman like I will take it. If I were him I would get some of those age spots burned off. That would help otherwise he's in a decent shape and he is a decent human.

As the election draws near trump will become more and more desperate to hold on to power. But because he's basically a tone-deaf lying cheating idiot he will also become increasingly ridiculous and blatantly insane. He's becoming the carnival barker that people are ignoring, knowing he's just shilling for snake oil. He's the face of evil. It's time to show evil the door.

I'm so happy to see people stepping up and protesting in a visceral, heartfelt way. Of course the destruction of property is terrible but the Americans have reached a boiling point with bigotry, trump's racist nonsense, and the partisan hate. Begone Republicans! Welcome, President Biden.

[quote] We don't do military coups in this country. That's your shithole.

You childish cretin.

Rolling Stone: The Joe Biden We’ve Been Waiting For

[quote] It is very hard to get many white people to believe someone is racist unless they are literally caught in a klan hood. Many white people are deeply emotionally invested in the idea that racism doesn't exist and there's nothing about society that needs to change

Correction:

Belief is not the problem. Knowledge is it the problem. They know that white supremacist racism is pervasive. They just won’t admit it, for obvious reasons.

I watched his speech from Philadelphia earlier today and it actually nearly brought tears to my eyes. The pain of everything happening right now is so raw but to actually hear a true leader speak from a place of calm and healing empathy felt so good. I donated to his campaign afterwards.

Another new poll shows Biden up by 10 and Trump under 40%

I don't know if it's as much of a sense of indifference or disbelief, but rather a sense of futility that things can ever change.

I think when Obama was elected, people really thought this country had turned in corner, when in fact his election angered & emboldened racists and gave rise to Hannity & a whole cast of miscreants that fed off people's anger about a black man telling them what to do. Moreover, the fact that Obama even *dared* suggest that cops weren't always right & perhaps there was another side of the story just enraged people, hence all the Blue Lives Matter bullshit, etc. That, coupled with strong police unions that make it almost impossible to fire bad cops. Then add to that the increased militarization of cops since 9/11 & it's a literally a lethal combination of circumstances. So now you have cops/law enforcement/Delta Force wannabes who are basically untouchable that are emboldened by Dump/the repugs and are still outraged that uppity Obama ever dared questioned their methods.

So in that climate, how can you ever hope that things will change? Yes, it was awful to see that guy have the life choked out of him and those cops with no concern about what they'd just done, but the public has short attention spans. They're outraged one day about that & the next day they're talking about something the Kardashians did. Yes, people feel very emotional about it now, but how does that translate into real change, particularly 6+ months later when other fresh, new horrors are in front of us? I'm just old enough to have seen this thing time & time again & I wish it would change, but it never does.

[quote]I think when Obama was elected, people really thought this country had turned in corner, when in fact his election angered & emboldened racists and gave rise to Hannity & a whole cast of miscreants that fed off people's anger about a black man telling them what to do.

This is when I say that we must look to history. The same exact thing happened during and right after Reconstruction. The difference?

The Black community is much more educated and aware. This clock is NOT turning back. Not this time!

33% approve of Trump's handling of the protests. 55% disapprove.

It would give me the greatest pleasure if Trump loses bigly. He deserves to lose by a landslide. The greater Biden's win, the less Trump can cry about rigged elections and fake news.

Our job: Get people to the voting booth. I don't care if you like, love or respect Biden, or if you think he is too old or a poor candidate overall. You have to vote for him no matter what.

(R44) We need to tell that to the Bernbots who are still butt hurt that Bernie lost to Joe. Some, we know, will vote for Dumpster.

If you think Joe Biden is a poor candidate, however, then you need to have your head examined. He’s promising some of the most expansive, progressive economic policies since FDR. He might be able to put two more liberals on the Supreme Court, including Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement. Plus hundreds of more judges on the federal bench throughout the country. And with a public healthcare option among other ACA reforms, which should’ve been passed in 2017, we can get closer to a universal single payer system. There are plenty of reasons to be for Biden rather than simply against Trump.

I hope he’ll spend the majority of his campaign ad money this summer and fall telling us why he’s a good candidate rather than telling us why Trump is a bad one.

R45 I'm a black millennial. I lean slightly more towards establishment democrats but 90% of my friends are Bernie people.

These protests are the first time in many years my whole friend group's social media feeds and group chat messages are all in sync. This is all we're talking about. We're all on the same side. I genuinely don't remember that happening at other moment during Trump's presidency. Usually even when Trump does something horrific, my Bernie friend are more mad at Pelosi and Schumer for "enabling him" than they ever are at Trump. But for once everyone is just talking about how much they hate him and how we need to get him out of there.

It's obviously not representative, but it has made me feel hopeful at least.

... aaand next week the gap will close again. There is no way Trump should be polling out of the teens.

Let the sheeple walk off the cliff with Dotard. They don't deserve nice things.

[quote]We need to tell that to the Bernbots who are still butt hurt that Bernie lost to Joe. Some, we know, will vote for Dumpster.

Given Trump's gross mishandling of the pandemic and the protests, not to mention his increasingly obvious insanity, I can't imagine many Bernbots voting for him. I can see them staying home, perhaps, but not voting for Trump in significant numbers.

"Usually even when Trump does something horrific, my Bernie friend are more mad at Pelosi and Schumer for "enabling him" than they ever are at Trump."

That is the stupidest thing I've read in awhile. How do Pelosi and Schumer have ANY influence over an impulsive psychotic turd like Trump?

Your Bernie friends are patently retarded and therefore part of the problem. Please go tell them some fag on the internet just said that.

[QUOTE] I can't imagine many Bernbots voting for him. I can see them staying home

If they stay home, then that makes them complicit in Trump’s treachery. The Democrats should also refuse them a seat at their table. Let them go out and start their own political party.

[quote] Your Bernie friends are patently retarded and therefore part of the problem. Please go tell them some fag on the internet just said that.

Yeah, I think r47 needs a bit more than that to convince his friends. Insults may not entice them too much.

R46, absolutely! Along with many other good reasons, we must elect Biden so that Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg can finally retire (if she chooses to). The longer trump stays in office the more biased and corrupt the courts become.

Now if he would just stay in the basement until November and not say anything stupid at will be alright.

Because God knows Trump never says anything stupid or offensive, R54.

[quote]These protests are the first time in many years my whole friend group's social media feeds and group chat messages are all in sync.

They're saying that they're going to vote for BIden?

I cannot see how anyone can see the stark contrast between Biden and Trump and not be nostalgic for some sense of fucking normality? I mean, seriously. Even if you're the biggest racist on the planet how can you be happy with this country going up in flames. You have to know that Trump has no idea how to make it any better. You're really willing to spend another four years witnessing this nonsense? Wouldn't it be more fun to sit on the sidelines again blasting Democrats who are in charge? Isn't this becoming tiresome, getting blamed for the crap your orange turd leader keeps fucking up?

People who are still adamant that Trump is the man for the office are either mentally ill, ethically corrupt, or clinically imbecilic. Some have said these people are suffering from some sort of mass hysteria or self inflicted brainwashing. I don't buy any of that. Personally I think most of them are simply too stupid to draw breath and harbor a pathological level of hate for the democratic party and love seeing a scumbag like Trump try to destroy it even if it takes down the rest of the country as well, including them.

Many also are just plain embarrassed R59.

They voted for him. Have spent three years defending him and their vote (“well, that’s not the way I would have said it” or “he has his unique way of doing things we supporters want done” or . . .). Just now they’re beginning to realize he’s made a fool of them in everyone else’s eyes. So they retreat even further into FOX for solace and taking points.

Biden doesn’t even need to open his mouth for the rest of the campaign. Trump just continues to destroy himself.

I beg to differ, R61. Joe Biden needs to continue inspiring people. He needs to offer hope, to be the beacon of light amid Trump’s darkness that we can use to find our way home this November.

R61 and r62, I’ll take the high road and say both of you are sort of right. Biden doesn’t need many appearances—the ones he’s already done (limited due to COVID) have, however, been extremely effective. He doesn’t have to do much, but he must make sure the little he does packs a huge punch.

R54 is a classic troll. They project about Shitler's daily insane comments by bringing up Bidens "gaffes", which are about a tenth of Dump's, if that.

It's early yet, but so far this place has FAR fewer trolls than we had in the run up to the 2016 election. Muriel's new login system has done wonders. It was like waves of invasion before. You couldn't block them fast enough. I ran out of FFs every single day

YouGov, the polling firm that accurately called Brexit, Trump and the 2018 election has Biden up by 4.

The US is trash. Let it burn.

...

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 4 points in the race for the White House, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll released Tuesday.

The poll shows Biden with the support of 47 percent of likely voters surveyed, down slightly from 49 percent in a similar poll released last month. Trump's support, meanwhile, remained stagnant at 43 percent. The poll comes at a tumultuous time in the 2020 presidential race and Trump's tenure in the White House.

The nation is still gripped by the coronavirus pandemic, which has now killed more than 100,000 people in America. At the same time, protests and civil unrest over racial injustice and police brutality have broken out across the country.

Roughly half of respondents to the CBS News poll - 49 percent - said they disapprove of Trump's response to the protests, which began in Minneapolis last week after the death of 46-year-old George Floyd in police custody. About one third - 32 percent - said that they approve of the president's response.

Trump has come under fire for his response to the protests, especially after law enforcement cleared protesters from Lafayette Square across the street from the White House on Monday night so that he could walk to a nearby church for a photo op. A plurality of respondents - 42 percent - said that they haven't heard enough from Biden to form an opinion on his response to the protests. The former vice president addressed the matter in a speech Tuesday, in which he sharply criticized Trump's response to the protests in front of the White House and called for police reforms.

Most of those surveyed have already decided their preferred candidate for the White House. Seventy-five percent said that they have already made up their minds on whom they will vote for in November, while another 19 percent said they "probably" won't change their preference for president.

Only 1 percent of respondents said that they are likely to change their minds at some point before Election Day, according to the CBS News poll. The CBS News/YouGov poll surveyed 2,071 U.S. residents from May 29-June 1. It has a margin of error of +/-2.6 percentage points.

[quote]Most of those surveyed have already decided their preferred candidate for the White House. Seventy-five percent said that they have already made up their minds on whom they will vote for in November, while another 19 percent said they "probably" won't change their preference for president.

This is HUGE. So many in 2016 were undecided up until the last week or so... when many broke for Trump after the Comey letter reinforced the thought that Hillary was shady and corrupt.

Yep. Hillary led Trump in most polls but a four point lead for her would be like 42-38. That's a huge number of undecideds. And last time they decisively went for Trump at the end.

Biden's overall support is much higher. He's polling at 49ish if you average the polls. And consistently with less than 10% still undecided. He only needs a tiny percentage of the undecideds to get over 50% and win. Trump would need every last one to go his way.

[quote]It's early yet, but so far this place has FAR fewer trolls than we had in the run up to the 2016 election.

Oh hell no. You must have them on block. And the login makes it easier to game than having to build karma.

Biden is polling much higher where it counts -- swing states.

You can't post from multiple IPs now to get around blocks. One of the easiest things to do before was just opening an incognito window and post as a "new" poster. If you pay the 1.99 you didn't need to build karma.

It's interesting that 94% in the poll at R66 have definitely or probably already decided who they're voting for. I think the political theory that there are no true undecideds in modern US elections may be correct, and that it's all a matter of turning people out to vote.

R71, wut? You don't have to pay to open an account.

R73 but you can't comment on any thread Muriel doesn't want creepers commenting on. She can block out trolls pretty easily and instantly. They can't just swarm any thread with dozens of free accounts to create chaos on here. Nowadays if you see one person trolling, you can block them and that's the end of it

Aw, sweetie, we're having two very different conversations. I'm out so that we don't derail the thread.

"Most Americans Now Deem Trump a Racist"

Really? It took over 4 years for the voting public to realize this? This was an actually his most prominent feature during the 2016 campaign.

New poll. Biden leads by 52-41. Increase of three points from last month. Only 7 percent are undecided. If Trump won ALL undecideds, it wouldn't be enough to catch Biden at this moment

How is it possible to be undecided when the choice is between "decent human being" and Satan in the flesh?

[quote]How is it possible to be undecided when the choice is between "decent human being" and Satan in the flesh?

By being BernieTrash.

The children aren't going to vote. They're too cool and busy with TikTok.

yeah Hillary had a healthy lead in the polls too. This all means nothing.

How the fuck does CNBC/ Change Research have Trump up 4 in PA? They have Biden up in Florida and Michigan but down in PA. Weird

I am a Joe fan. I want him to win so bad. I don't think he will, but who knows.

R82 that pollster has had very positive polls for Trump all cycle. That's why it's better to take an average

I'm more questioning how they can have Scranton Joe down in PA, r84.

PA is pretty much in Trump’s corner. It’s Pennsyltucky and the people here are trash.

Can Biden win with PA?

R81 Polls capture opinions at a point in time... there are differently methodologies, but all polls have a "window" of accuracy... usually 3-4 points either.

It was so shocking that a creep like Trump could win the Presidency, that we continue to share the false narrative that "the polls were so wrong!!" Trump was continuing to close ground the two weeks before the election. Comey's letter at the end did two things: it' increased Trump's momentum and turnout, and depressed Clinton's turnout. The final polls were pretty accurate... given the +/-.

The 2018 polls pretty accurately predicted outcomes... but again, any single poll is just a static snapshot of what may be something in motion.

I think the 2016 polls skepticism was that the exit polls on election day itself were not clear.... the methodology of exit polls, on the day of election in order to predict results, isn't very good.

[quote]PA is pretty much in Trump’s corner. It’s Pennsyltucky and the people here are trash.

I don't get this. Aren't there more people in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined to outweigh rural Pennsylvanians?

Plus, Biden was born in Pennsylvania.

Yes Biden can win in PA. If he chooses the right VP that is. That being said the governor is a Democrat so is one of the senators. So he has a good chance to take the state.

PA is not in Trump’s corner. Not when Philly and Pittsburgh vote like they should (and did since 1992, until 2016). I’ll always believe that torrential rain and cold kept Philly voters away, especially since they thought Hillary had it in the bag.

Yes and no, r89 Central and Western PA are getting redder. While Pittsburgh proper is blue the metropolitan area surrounding it is red. Pittsburgh is also much smaller than Philly. There's been an increase in industries (like fracking and steel) in Western PA that traditionally draw republicans from other states.

[quote]New poll. Biden leads by 52-41. Increase of three points from last month.

That Monmouth poll in R77 has Biden's lead getting steadily bigger over the past few months (Biden was up 3 points in March, 4 in April, 9 in May and 11 now).

Y'all are high. Presidential polls average for PA have Joe up by 7 points... it could change, but that's the picture now.

Pennsylvania is a true swing state. It’s about equally split between the blue urban and metropolitan vote in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, versus the red rural vote everywhere else.

It ultimately comes down to the white suburban voters in the counties surrounding Philly and Pittsburgh to decide.

R94 now look at the 2016 polls for PA. We'll wait.

R95 the counties surrounding Pittsburgh are republican. Lehigh Valley may end up deciding the election.

Stop Homosexuals Of A Certain Age

Biden is going to win in a landslide.

Trump's real base is only around 35% of the population and shrinking steadily with each Bible he holds up.

[bold] He won in 2016 because many swing voters hated Hillary. They viewed her as the epitome of the affluent coastal liberal who looked down on them and did not care about them and wanted to teach her a lesson and thus deceived themselves into thinking that Trump was not really as bad as he appeared.

But Biden has no such issues. He was and still is Blue Collar Joe and so long as he picks pretty much anyone other than Stacey Abrams as VP, he will win in a landslide. [/bold]

Black voters have been activated (and then some) and will turn out at Obama-like levels.

Suburban Karens and Chads are sick of the constant chaos Trump causes and how uppity the white trash are getting and will also turn out in huge numbers. And they will get their votes cast no matter how many managers they need to speak to.

If we're lucky, the GOP convention will turn into a giant COVID-spreading operation and further diminish Trump's core.

RCP poll leads on this day in history:

2020: Biden +8.0 2016: Clinton +1.5 2012: Obama +1.3 2008: Obama +1.4

I think people generally remember the Obama wins as much easier and more predictable than they were.

And to follow up on what I wrote at R98, this happened.

And the best anti-Trump, anti-Mitch ads are coming from the disgruntled Republicans of the Lincoln Project.

And that's even before you start counting the Democrats.

PS: Which independent Vermont Senator and his supporters have more or less vanished from sight over the past month? #NotAnIssueAnyMore

Oh, honey, not Newsmax. No. Just no.

And the distinct possibility that W could endorse Biden is being discussed openly.

Because let's face it-- they know that if things continue to spiral out of control, having Bush and Romney endorse Biden is the only way to save the GOP from going the way of the Whigs.

DL would not let me link to two other legit sources R101 and for some reason it lets Newsmax go.

This guy is a pollster based in Colorado:

"Folks, I’m telling you right now, I think there’s a VERY real chance Trump and Gardner lose CO by 20-plus in November."

The big story is how Republicans have lost/are on the way to losing the southwest. If Trump loses CO by anything close to 20 points, then Arizona, and quite possible Texas, are going Democratic as well. Hell, Trump is barely ahead in Utah as we speak.

[quote]I don't get this. Aren't there more people in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined to outweigh rural Pennsylvanians?

[quote]Plus, Biden was born in Pennsylvania.

No. The whites in Philly and Pittsburgh that used to be Democrats are Republican now. There is still major hatred for Democrats since 2016 and Philly's mayor has made things a million times worse for the party. Philly's blue color morons see Trump as one of their own because he speaks on their level.

[quote]RCP poll leads on this day in history:

Which ones are for primaries, which were against Republican opponent once they had the nomination? Wasn't Hillary still battling it out with Bernie at this time back in 2016? We need to see polls where the Dem nominee was locked in and facing the GOP challenger.

[quote]Biden is going to win in a landslide.

Oh, brother, please don't start this shit again. Are you literally copying and pasting the Hillary loons on here 4 years telling everyone to shut up, how she was going to win in a landslide? Learn from history already. Don't count your chickens just yet.

R106 that is only true of Obama in 2012 and Biden now. But still in 2012 Obama polled ahead by 1.5.

On election day the polls showed a dead heat but Obama ended up winning by 4. That was double the size of the polls underestimation of Trump in 2016 but no one talks about it

I'm in Philly and haven't seen on Biden sign. Bernie, yes, Kamala, believe it or not, yes. Tons of Trump shit. People here still love him - well, the white morons anyway.

[quote]The whites in Philly and Pittsburgh that used to be Democrats are Republican now.

They’re not solid Republicans. They’re moderates that sometimes vote for the Democrat (Obama) and sometimes the Republican (Trump).

And there’s a “silent majority” of Trump voters out there who will vote for Biden this time, but they’re not making it publicly known.

Hillary was widely hated (and then some) R107

No one hates Biden

r110, I live here, it just isn't the case. It might have been in 2016, but ever since Kenney, white people really hate the Democratic party with a passion. Hopefully blacks can once again save the day - that is if the GOP doesn't try to keep them from voting.

[quote]No one hates Biden

I heard from five people here who are registered Democrats, not Bernie nuts, say Biden is a nut and they won't vote for him. One actually voted for Tulsi over it. I'm telling you, PA can easily go to Trump again. It's literally lost its mind. Fox News plays everywhere. People are brainwashed.

This news today also doesn't help the party's image here.

Oh, and our DA Larry Krasner is a mess. Such a mess that the bar wouldn't even endorse him. He let's the worst of the worst go free. He wants prison justice reform which boils down to no one getting prosecuted because they had a bad childhood. Kenney trying to sneak safe injection sites in South Philly even has blacks outraged. Then there was the beverage tax - the money mysteriously went missing. The Democratic Party has a really big image problem in Philly. Tom Wolf is the state's only saving grace. So again, Trump could very easily take the state again.

Dear R112.... losing the Tulsi voter wont' change the election. Both of them may not vote anyway.

[quote] I heard from five people here who are registered Democrats, not Bernie nuts, say Biden is a nut and they won't vote for him.

I'll take Things Trolls Say for $400 please, Alex.

R104 not sure if I trust what he's saying if he has Trump currently down in Utah. Utah is one of the few places where Trump is up double digits.

No, the most recent poll in Utah showed Trump up by only 3 points.

A poll just came out the trump is only leading Biden by 3 in Utah.

R115 there may be some truth to that. If you look at western and central PA you have registered Democrats that vote reliably republican, particularly in Murtha country.

R118 there are two pollsters in Utah. One is coming in at up 3 the other shows up 19. If you take an average of the 5 polls then Trump is up 23 in Utah.

I think that all of this will change in a few weeks. Does anyone else remember those who said; "Race relations have never been worse than they were under Obama?"

Meet Mr. Trump...

The whole dynamics have changed here. The Black community is determined to get him out. Now, add on to that the Latino and Asian communities.

R105, what a load of total horseshit. In 2018, EVERY SINGLE COUNTY surrounding Philadelphia went Democratic. Every one of them.

^ before that 3 of 5 were Republican. Philly proper remains heavily Democratic.

The Philly suburbs lurched blue in 2018. The Dems did tremendously there. They just need to hold those gains while hoping there isn't a historic turnout surge in rural areas

I'm not R105, but I just remember from 2016 how people from PA were saying that Trump was going to win PA based on yard signs and bumper stickers, etc. No one listened to them. I'm just going to take a wait and see approach before jumping to any conclusions about PA... and for that matter any poll. These numbers look good, but November is a long time way away. Just stay focused, especially on the swing states.

R124 Yep, if 2020 matches 2018 - trends, turnout - Trump is toast.

It's not clear that 2020 is 2018. Trumper turnout will be much higher. So will Blue turnout. No time for overconfidence - need to work on enthusiasm and turnout... of Blue voters. Hence the conversations around the VP pick... more relevant this cycle than any since 1960.

Trump just received 800,000 votes in the PA primary, Biden received 600,000.

R127 the RNC has spent a huge and unusual amount of money on the uncontested republican primaries. Conversely Biden and the Dems have stopped spending on the primaries because it's clear Biden will win the nom and he wants to save cash for the general election. All Trump's primary numbers are much high than you see for an incumbent president for that reason. The fact that he's not ignoring it.

Obama actually did pretty badly in some Dem presidential primaries in 2012. But he was putting no effort into it. He went on to win by 4

What does that signify, R127? Trump had no real opposition while Sanders got almost 155K votes.

Sanders dropped out. Enthusiasm for Biden still isn’t where it needs to be at least in PA.

I think the BernieBros just wanted one more gasp at relevancy before the general election. However I am hearing that polls in PA show a dead heat between Biden and Trump right now. Those western PA folks are worried about their fracking jobs.

Well, this will ruin lunch and... probably dinner

22 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Poll shows Biden within a point of Trump in Texas

Ursula Perano

President Trump and Joe Biden are in a tight race in Texas, with the former vice president trailing by just a point, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.

Why it matters: Changing demographics in the state have made it a key target for Democrats in future presidential cycles, forcing the GOP to weigh how it can be more inclusive and keep its hold on the Lone Star state and its 38 electoral votes.

By the numbers: The poll put Trump at 44% and Biden at 43% among registered voters in the state.

Respondents favored Trump on handling the economy (54% to 40%) but thought Biden would be better at handling health care (49% to 43%).

Both candidates were in the red in terms of their net favorability ratings, however, with Trump at -8 and Biden at -7.

Of note: The poll also showed that 59% of Texan voters support expanding mail-in voting access during the coronavirus pandemic.

Both a federal appeals court and the Texas Supreme Court have blocked a request by the state's Republican attorney general to expand mail-in voting to all Texas citizens.

Trump has expressed unsubstantiated concerns of mail-in ballots being susceptible to voter fraud, which lead Twitter to issue a fact-check against him for the first time last week.

Methodology: 1,166 self-identified registered voters in Texas were surveyed from May 28 - June 1 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

[quote]I think the BernieBros just wanted one more gasp at relevancy before the general election

I've come to the conclusion that the BernieBros are actually the white supremacists. It is just incomprehensible how anyone can say that they believe in the ideology of Bernie Sanders and then take actions that will derail the Democratic nominee and effectively put Trump back into office who believes in nothing that Sanders does.

The votes for Sanders in PA aren't going to derail anything, really. Biden has the nomination sewn up and the PA BernieBros know it. Those votes are just empty declarations of their political purity.

[quote] Well, this will ruin lunch and... probably dinner

For Trump... right?

Texas voted 11 points to the right of the nation at large in 2016.

So the Biden lead of 11 we saw earlier today is consistent with Texas being tied. That adds credibility to both polls.

[quote]Trump just received 800,000 votes in the PA primary, Biden received 600,000.

Asshole Bernie received a number of votes on the Democratic side, while Trump was virtually unopposed.

Also, Pennsylvania is a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats can vote on the Democratic ticket and Vice-versa. I’m sure nearly all registered Republicans who came out to vote yesterday checked the box for Trump. That doesn’t mean they plan to vote for him in November.

Bernie fans are always bragging about how Bernie has so much of great experience behind him--mainly all his protesting and post-office naming. Why didn't he participate in the protests if he's so great?

Has Bernie made a statement? How many protesters were BernieBros? Can he control his minions?

Bernie Sanders’ former press secretary mocked Joe Biden on Monday, calling him “king of the Black people” and asking why he hasn’t “put an end” to riots.

“The way the press talked about him, you’d think one statement from Biden, king of the Black people, could put an end to all this,” Briahna Gray on Twitter. “Wonder why it hasn’t worked.”

Briahna Joy Gray ✔ @briebriejoy The way the press talked about him, you’d think one statement from Biden, king of the Black people, could put an end to all this. Wonder why it hasn’t worked.

R140, she's a dumbass. Biden made several statements. Where the fuck is her messiah? I thought Bernie was supposed to fix all the ills of the world or something like that...

Bernie is totally MIA. I wonder if he's had another heart attack? I mean, I don't know, but I'm concerned!

R142, good point... he said something about a week ago, but I think that was it.

Bernie is near death. He can’t be outside in the heat around protestors.

Bernie spent 5 years talking about the need for a political revolution and how he was the only one that could lead it. Now that we actually have one he wants nothing to do with it

Bernie waited until he nearly 80 years old to attempt to launch his “revolution”. His entire career was a lot of “nothing to do with it.”

we still cant relax...this piece of shit will do everything in his power to steal the election

Biden up four points in Arizona

Uh-Oh.... But, it's about time...

POLITICS

James Mattis Denounces President Trump, Describes Him as a Threat to the Constitution

In an extraordinary condemnation, the former defense secretary backs protesters and says the president is trying to turn Americans against one another.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG

6:00 PM ET

James Mattis, the esteemed Marine general who resigned as secretary of defense in December 2018 to protest Donald Trump’s Syria policy, has, ever since, kept studiously silent about Trump’s performance as president. But he has now broken his silence, writing an extraordinary broadside in which he denounces the president for dividing the nation, and accuses him of ordering the U.S. military to violate the constitutional rights of American citizens.

“I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled,” Mattis writes. “The words ‘Equal Justice Under Law’ are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.” He goes on, “We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution.”

In his j’accuse, Mattis excoriates the president for setting Americans against one another.

“Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us,” Mattis writes. “We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.”

He goes on to contrast the American ethos of unity with Nazi ideology. “Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that ‘The Nazi slogan for destroying us … was “Divide and Conquer.” Our American answer is “In Union there is Strength.”’ We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.”

Mattis’s dissatisfaction with Trump was no secret inside the Pentagon. But after his resignation, he argued publicly—and to great criticism—that it would be inappropriate and counterproductive for a former general, and a former Cabinet official, to criticize a sitting president. Doing so, he said, would threaten the apolitical nature of the military. When I interviewed him last year on this subject, he said, “When you leave an administration over clear policy differences, you need to give the people who are still there as much opportunity as possible to defend the country. They still have the responsibility of protecting this great big experiment of ours.” He did add, however: “There is a period in which I owe my silence. It’s not eternal. It’s not going to be forever.”

Fox also has him up 9 in Wisconsin and 2 in Ohio(!). If democrats win Ohio, PA becomes unimportant. These polls were taken enitrely since the protests began. There is not "protest backlash" coming to save Trump

That period is now definitively over. Mattis reached the conclusion this past weekend that the American experiment is directly threatened by the actions of the president he once served. In his statement, Mattis makes it clear that the president’s response to the police killing of George Floyd, and the ensuing protests, triggered this public condemnation.

“When I joined the military, some 50 years ago,” he writes, “I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.”

He goes on to implicitly criticize the current secretary of defense, Mark Esper, and other senior officials as well. “We must reject any thinking of our cities as a ‘battlespace’ that our uniformed military is called upon to ‘dominate.’ At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors. Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society. It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part. Keeping public order rests with civilian state and local leaders who best understand their communities and are answerable to them.

Here is the text of the complete statement.

IN UNION THERE IS STRENGTH I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled. The words “Equal Justice Under Law” are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.

When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.

We must reject any thinking of our cities as a “battlespace” that our uniformed military is called upon to “dominate.” At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors. Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society. It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part. Keeping public order rests with civilian state and local leaders who best understand their communities and are answerable to them.

James Madison wrote in Federalist 14 that “America united with a handful of troops, or without a single soldier, exhibits a more forbidding posture to foreign ambition than America disunited, with a hundred thousand veterans ready for combat.” We do not need to militarize our response to protests. We need to unite around a common purpose. And it starts by guaranteeing that all of us are equal before the law.

Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.’” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.

We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We know that we are better than the abuse of executive authority that we witnessed in Lafayette Square. We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. At the same time, we must remember Lincoln’s “better angels,” and listen to them, as we work to unite.

Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad.

Wait and see what happens if some more polls come out in a week or two showing that Trump really doesn’t have a chance in hell. If he loses several formerly red states by fairly large margins, and Biden holds on to them for several cycles, will Trump quit?

You could say a poll taken right in the middle of riots is temporary and will soon pass. But what if a couple of weeks go by and it’s even worse for Trump? He’s the type to panic no matter what his advisers say. I can’t imagine he wants to hold a vote-by-mail election he already knows he’s going to lose.

We will see more and more Republicans denouncing Trump

Do not be surprised to see W and Romney endorse him, possibly even at the convention in August

The most effective anti-Trump ads are coming from George Conway's Lincoln Project for GOP NeverTrumpers

If he looks like he's going down badly, don't be surprised to see him "develop a heart condition" and resign so long as Pence promises to pardon him a la Ford/Nixon

It will be funny to see the previously “healthiest man in the world” suddenly claim to be on death’s door and the only cure is leaving for Russia.

[quote] Do not be surprised to see W and Romney endorse him, possibly even at the convention in August

By "him" I meant BIDEN, not Trump -- my bad

As Harry Enten said today, the polls that matter the post are the *high quality live phone polls*, and so far Biden has large leads in those polls.

Eg. Biden is up by 11 points in the new Monmouth poll -- 52% -41%:

There are also new state polls from Fox News which have Biden leading in Wisconsin, Ohio & Arizona:

Wisconsin (Biden +9)

Ohio (Biden +2)

Arizona (Biden +4)

We love it when to talk figures to us, poll troll!

And we still need to donate, motivate and vote!

Nate Cohn:

[quote]Biden+11 in Monmouth adds to a growing body of high-quality national polling showing that Biden's lead has grown quite a but over the last few months

[quote]Monmouth trend: Biden+3 in March, +4 in April, +9 in May, +11 now.

Nate Cohn:

[quote]We have a similar trend from ABC/Post this week, which went from Biden+2 in March to Biden+10 now

He can't win with no voters under 50.

A 10 point lead means that Biden would win every swing state, plus AZ, GA, OH, IA and TX would be a literal toss-up. Of course, we're still 5 months away from the election and events are moving very quickly.

I expect that the Bushes, Romneys, and McCains will probably all endorse Biden.

Biden just needs to keep quiet, make a few strategic speeches and appearances, and just let Trump keep ruining himself.

^ True enough. But I prefer to describe plump as "soiling himself."

Agree R164

It will allow them to pull the GOP up from the ashes.

Rubio, Cruz, Graham, McTurtle will all be goners. Not to mention all the really crazy MAGAts like Cotton and Hawley and that lady from TN

...and DEVIN NUNES as The Idiot

[quote] A 10 point lead means that Biden would win every swing state

Really?

[quote]Rubio, Cruz, Graham, McTurtle will all be goners. Not to mention all the really crazy MAGAts like Cotton and Hawley and that lady from TN

This is very concerning.

If Biden does slaughter Trump in the election (a margin of more than 6 percentage points), do you guys think the ulta-conservative side of the Republicans will reform out of fear? Or die kicking and screaming? My money is on the latter.

Not at r170. The tea party types like Cotton and Blackburn all represent the safest of seats. The only republicans that are vulnerable are the ones that are slightly more reasonable like Collins. If we win and sweep those people out, and I hope we do, it will leave the GOP more in the thrall of it's extreme members not less.

At the same time they are only in this mess because they spent too much time following the whims of their most extreme members. Democrats are far better at ignoring their most fringe members or at least not getting talked into wildly unpopular positions

@R149

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Probably the only thing Barack Obama & I have in common is that we both had the honor of firing Jim Mattis, the world’s most overrated General. I asked for his letter of resignation, & felt great about it. His nickname was “Chaos”, which I didn’t like, & changed to “Mad Dog”...

...His primary strength was not military, but rather personal public relations. I gave him a new life, things to do, and battles to win, but he seldom “brought home the bacon”. I didn’t like his “leadership” style or much else about him, and many others agree. Glad he is gone!

Did Miller write that? Or Jared?

R172 This five time draft dodging pussy shitting himself out of fear in the White House bunker wants to come for The General. No words for how pathetic this waste of a human life is.

Did you all think he as going to tweet "You know, maybe General Mattis has a point" R173?

Twitter is the perfect platform for a chicken shit bully like Trump because he's too afraid to say shit to anyone's face.

I hope that the Democratic party has volunteers walking around at the riots, registering people to vote.

R162 You are not keep up with what's happening

They do, R176

[QUOTE] He can't win with no voters under 50.

Why not? Republicans do it all the time.

Alex Burns (New York Times):

[quote]New: Trump’s electoral map is risk of collapsing, as once-red states like OH, IA, AZ & GA shift away

[quote]GOP aides know things are dire, but don’t know how to solve their basic problem: the candidate

[quote]@maggieNYT & me on the bleakest outlook yet for Trump 2020

Trump Campaign Looks at Electoral Map and Doesn’t Like What It Sees

As polls show President Trump significantly trailing his rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., his campaign is spending heavily in states, like Ohio, that it had hoped would not be competitive at all this year.

June 3, 2020

President Trump is facing the bleakest outlook for his re-election bid so far, with his polling numbers plunging in both public and private surveys and his campaign beginning to worry about his standing in states like Ohio and Iowa that he carried by wide margins four years ago.

The Trump campaign has recently undertaken a multimillion-dollar advertising effort in those two states as well as Arizona in hopes of improving his standing, while also shaking up his political operation and turning new attention to states like Georgia that were once considered reliably Republican. In private, Mr. Trump has expressed concern that his campaign is not battle-ready for the general election, while Republicans are concerned about whether the president can emerge in a strong position from the national crises battering the country.

Mr. Trump has been consistently unpopular as president with a majority of Americans; his advisers have long seen his effort to win a new term as depending on the loyalty of his conservative base and the Republican-friendly tilt of the Electoral College — factors that could allow the president to capture another thin victory despite the strong possibility of losing the popular vote again.

But amid the human and economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic and now a wave of demonstrations and social unrest in American cities, Mr. Trump has fallen significantly behind his Democratic challenger, Joseph R. Biden Jr.

In private polling conducted by Mr. Trump’s campaign, the president is now well behind Mr. Biden, according to people briefed on the most recent round of results. Multiple public surveys this week have found Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden, the former vice president, by double-digit margins, including a Monmouth University poll published on Wednesday that showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 percentage points.

[More at link]:

All good news... but a huge Biden win (still very, very uncertain) needs to happen to win the Senate. Having the White House and the Senate is needed for RBG 's replacement and to clean up the damage that the Trump Gang has wreaked on the nation.

Stay vigilant! Voter turnout! Volunteer time and $!! Venceremos!!

I want that fat fucking traitor behind by 20 points on election day. And when the results come in, I want him to be crushed by 30 points.

Let's make it happen.

Dear GOP aides:

If I could speak to those GOP aides, I would look tell them: Save America, what's left of your party and your own, complicit hides -- Invoke the 25th Amendment. You manufactured 'evidence' against Hilary and Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Barak Obama and Joe Biden. Put your sniveling deep fake creators and the plastic troops at FOX News to work to smear shit all over that crazy, morbidly obese moron in the White House.

Do it now while you can still pretend you're doing it for your country.

But, is all of this too early?

Sorry for the errors in R184. It's been that kind of day. I need a beer.

According to his recent physical exam I don't think it is correct to say that Trump is morbidly obese.

Unless he bought off his doctor who wants to send his 2.0 GPA children to Harvard.

I said this last year... It will be a nominating convention and somebody like Romney will be the candidate.

His ego will not allow him to lose so the only thing he can do is drop out to save face. He'll probably say that his company needs him to get things back on track follow the pandemic and off he'll go.

R188, I admit it's a thought that crosses my mind. I have a friend who insists that once Dump was elected, a lot of GOP types were led to believe he was a one term plan.

**TEXAS**

New poll from Quinnipiac:

Trump: 44%

Biden: 43%

It would need to be something far far far more dramatic than his company needs him R188

A manufactured health crisis with a fake hospital stay is more likely

I would love for him to lose Texas.

I would love for him to lose a limb.

I don't think this is too early...we are going into the summer doldrums...people aren't going to be paying attention for the next 3 months. I doubt things will change all that much. Now, we are in exceptional times with the pandemic so maybe people will be distracted with that but either way the next 3 months people will be trying to focus on getting back to some form of normalcy.

[QUOTE] But, is all of this too early?

No. For Joe Biden, it was right on time. He’s got the party fully behind him now. This was the moment we emerged from the primary fight and saw the choice before us come November. There were myriad ways Joe Biden could’ve screwed it up, but instead he stuck the landing.

[quote]A manufactured health crisis with a fake hospital stay is more likely

But that would make him look weak and he would never willingly do that. Not after all the fake doctor reports making him look so virile and healthy 🙄

I'm anxious to see what Jabba The Trump does once someone starts talking about televised debates. I don't think he'll ever consent to debate Biden. It'll just be interesting to see what asinine reason he comes up with the avoid it.

R189 that crossed my mind too. That Republicans were waiting for a strategic moment to all turn on him while keeping some of his base intact. It think keeping the base is wishful thinking.

[quote]A manufactured health crisis with a fake hospital stay is more likely

Trump would never do this as he would think it makes him look weak. Whatever his outclause will be, Trump will want something that he believes makes him look like a strong and good leader... hence only he can save his company. Keep in mind this is guy who came up with the idiotic "inspecting the bunker" excuse when he was really squirrelled away when the protesting became intense.

Bill Barr looks a lot like Fred Flintstone

I think Biden could easily sway the Latino population. Why he hasn't done so I don't know. But Trump and his true colors are shining through - the summation is he's a Nazi asshole.

I think Bill Barr looks like a frog. He could have been the model for Pepe.

[quote]Bill Barr looks a lot like Fred Flintstone

A much less handsome version of Fred, anyway.

Eh, I say Barney was always the more attractive one

It's time for a network to play Lord of the Rings:

Sam : I know. It's all wrong By rights we shouldn't even be here. But we are. It's like in the great stories Mr. Frodo. The ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were, and sometimes you didn't want to know the end. Because how could the end be happy. How could the world go back to the way it was when so much bad happened. But in the end, it's only a passing thing, this shadow. Even darkness must pass. A new day will come. And when the sun shines it will shine out the clearer. Those were the stories that stayed with you. That meant something. Even if you were too small to understand why. But I think, Mr. Frodo, I do understand. I know now. Folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back only they didn’t. Because they were holding on to something.

Frodo : What are we holding on to, Sam?

Sam : That there’s some good in this world, Mr. Frodo. And it’s worth fighting for.

Thank you for sharing, R198. Bernie Sanders staff continue to be trash, no surprise. Hilarious and sad they thought they could run the country.

R204 As said upthread, Biden has "stuck the landing" so far in many ways. But he's had a lousy outreach to Latino communities. It's a concern internally in the campaign. If he really is going to get Texas (and with significant latino voters now in North Carolina and Georgia) he needs to do better.

Joe now favored in betting markets. I remember when the Biden haters touted the fact that Vegas was still banking on Trump despite Joe’s favorable polling. Now another one of their anti-Biden dominoes has fallen.

I saw another reporter explain this in a way that made a lot of sense.

What made the betting markets favor Biden isn't just the polling dip. Trump has polled low before and come back. It's that COVID-19 and Floyd's murder were both huge chances to show leadership and improve his standing with the suburbs and swing voters. And he only further eroded his standing with them. People are losing faith he can pick up any voters out side of his base.

And his base is just flat out not enough to win the election. It wasn't in 2016. He relied heavily on voters that hated his guts but hated Hillary more. That's not a factor now

[quote] And his base is just flat out not enough to win the election. It wasn't in 2016. He relied heavily on voters that hated his guts [bold] but hated Hillary more. [/bold]That's not a factor now

That needed repeating on DL

And if the only people who vote for him are his base, Reagan/Mondale will look like a very close battle.

[quote] I don't think he'll ever consent to debate Biden. It'll just be interesting to see what asinine reason he comes up with the avoid it.

TBH, having no debates would help Biden too. He was an awful debater during the primaries. The bar would be set higher for him and I'm not sure he could meet it.

Debates don't seem to sway voters anyway. Bush and Trump were both beaten decisively during all debates and they still won. They're more of a spectacle than a deciding factor for voters. Everybody already knows who Trump is at this point. A poor debate performance would hurt Biden much more than Trump. Talking heads wouldn't shut up for weeks if Biden looked confused, or made a gaffe.

His approval from white Catholics is down to 37%. It was 60% in March.

That church stunt REALLY pissed people off

GOP Sen. Murkowski 'struggling' with whether to vote for Trump:

“When I saw Gen. Mattis’s comments yesterday I felt like perhaps we’re getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns we might hold internally and have the courage of our convictions and speak up,” she told The Washington Post's Paul Kane, who pooled the remarks and sent them to other Senate reporters. Asked if she could vote for Trump in the 2020 election, Murkowski admitted, “I am struggling with it. I have struggled with it for a long time.”

Can't post The Hill link.

r198, I see Christmas came early this year 😊

R216 Yep.... after three years and 1,000 times seeing and thinking "oh, this time he has gone too far!! now his support will collapse!!" and then seeing him be Teflon Don and nothing taking him below that level of MAGA support... finally, finally it seems like it's cracking a bit.

Watch McConnell if his poll #s for re-election show him losing. Losing Presidency is one thing... but if it really looks like they'll lose the Senate, things will really fall apart. Right now they are still betting on MAGA turnout to protect the Senate.

[quote] I think Biden could easily sway the Latino population.

Biden has done very well with non-Mexican latinos. He won in Puerto Rico by large numbers, for instance. And Cuban Americans love Biden (or hate bernie, whatever).

So, I just looked at this Presidential electoral college map. Starting with the 2016 results, I flipped these states to Biden: AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, FL., and Biden easily wins.

However, if Trump wins Florida and NC, which are very close, he has a good shot of tying Biden in the EC. All Trump would have to do is keep 20 more electoral votes than I otherwise allot him. For example, if Trump take PA’s 20 EC votes; or in lieu of that, the total of 20 EC votes from MN and WI, he could tie the EC vote. Then the House votes to break the tie. I suppose if Trump took a single additional vote in NE or ME, he could win outright, but that would really be the luck of the devil. A tie looks like the most Trump could hope for.

So, forget the national polls, the important states are still too close for comfort. Trump only has to win them by a single vote each.

[quote] I felt like perhaps we’re getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns we might hold internally and have the courage of our convictions and speak up,”

And, she thinks that this absolves her from complicity? She's unwilling to speak up for what is right?

THIS is the Republicans' problem

No matter what, still vote in November.

I don't care what I read, I'm voting in November.

[quote]GOP Sen. Murkowski 'struggling' with whether to vote for Trump

She wouldn't even think of making this statement unless Republican internal polling was downright dismal for Trump and Republicans.

Look for vulnerable Republican senators, like Collins and Gardner, to openly criticize Trump in coming weeks.

[quote]THIS is the Republicans' problem

Ya see what I mean?

Republican senators shrug off Mattis' criticism of Trump: 'It's his opinion'

By Manu Raju and Ted Barrett, CNN

Updated 3:30 PM ET, Thu June 4, 2020

(CNN)Republican senators are dismissing the scathing criticism leveled against President Donald Trump by his former defense secretary, James Mattis, the latest sign that Republicans by and large are showing unwavering support for the leader of their party during this high-stakes election year.

Mattis, who has widespread support among Senate Republicans for his long military service to the country, contended that Trump "does not even pretend to try" to unite the country and is instead engaged in a "deliberate effort" to divide the country, while lacking "mature leadership." Mattis excoriated Trump's decision to hold a photo-op Monday at a church near the White House, saying troops were ordered to "violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens" who were protesting but were cleared out by police with force to make way for the President's visit . The criticism, however, was met with a shrug of the shoulders by several senior Republicans on Thursday.

"It's Gen. Mattis' opinion, he's free to express it," Sen. Ron Johnson, chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, told CNN. Asked again if he agreed with any of the criticism, Johnson said: "All I'm going to say about Gen. Mattis is I do respect him. He's a great American. It's his opinion to express it."

Johnson also would not weigh in on how the Monday event took place, contending "I still haven't seen any footage of how the crowd was cleared out."

Leaving the floor on Thursday morning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was silent when asked twice about Mattis' criticism, returning to his office and ignoring a reporter's questions.

The reaction reflects how many top Republicans on Capitol Hill have calculated that their fortunes in the 2020 elections rest in large part on Trump's performance at the polls -- and a messy, internecine war with a President with an itchy Twitter finger would amount to a fruitless and damaging endeavor.

The lone senator to break ranks: Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who is up for reelection in 2022, told CNN she agrees with the criticism and later told reporters she is "struggling" about whether to endorse Trump in 2020.

Others either defended Trump or contended they didn't want to get involved in the dispute.

Asked about the direct repudiation of Trump's leadership leveled by Mattis, Sen. Thom Tillis said: "They've got a little bit of a history on disagreements. So I'm not going to get between a squabble between a former secretary I have tremendous respect for and a president. That's something for them to settle."

Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who is up for re-election, also wouldn't say whether he has any concerns with the way the Monday photo-op was handled, something that Mattis cited in his criticism.

"I'm not going to comment on that," Tillis said, citing reports of protesters throwing frozen water bottles, though most of the protesters were acting peacefully and were met with force by the police, according to multiple reports. "This is another example where this is a cauldron and we gotta figure out a way to lower the temperature."

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham, who also faces voters in the fall, said that while Mattis is "an American hero" and has "every right to criticize President Trump," he added: "I think he's missing a lot here."

"It's just politically fashionable to blame Trump for everything -- and I'm not buying it," Graham, a South Carolina Republican, told CNN about Mattis' criticism. "And he jumped into politics -- Gen. Mattis did. And I think he's missing a lot about what's going on in America politically."

Graham, though, still questioned the need for Trump to hold the Monday photo-op in front of the church while holding up the Bible. The White House argued Trump was showing strength after a fire was set on the property the night before. "I never understood," Graham said about the Monday event. "Going over to visit church is fine. But waving the Bible -- I don't know what that was all about."

Some Republicans said Mattis' criticism was misplaced.

Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican up for reelection, said of Mattis: "By just blaming the President, he's only looking at half the equation." Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the criticism was "between the United States and his former secretary of defense."

"I'm focused on real threats to freedom," Young said, adding of Mattis: "If anyone can understand that, a fellow Marine can." He didn't respond to a question about Mattis citing Trump as a threat to freedom.

Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, who was critical of the Monday event after it occurred and then was singled out by Trump on Twitter, seemed to temper his criticism on Thursday, saying "the longer we go on, the more questions there are on how it started out." Lankford said that it could have been "reasonable" to use force if the protesters were being violent, citing statements made by the US Park Police, especially since violence occurred the night before.

"We don't know yet," Lankford said when asked if force against protesters could have been justified Monday evening. "So let's get the facts out on it."

Asked about the criticism from Mattis that Trump is purposefully dividing the country, Lankford said: "What's interesting is when I go back 10 years, that was the same criticism I was hearing about President [Barack] Obama at this time -- that they were saying he was dividing the country."

Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, also urged the President to "ignore the criticism in politics" when asked about the Mattis comments.

"I don't know that him saying this is especially helpful to the various crises that we're going through right now," Kennedy told reporters Thursday when asked about the former defense secretary. "But if he feels the need to express himself he can." Even close Mattis allies were wary about endorsing his criticism.

Senate Armed Services Chairman James Inhofe said Mattis "has been a hero of mine for a long time" and is "the greatest marine in the world."

But the Oklahoma Republican added: "He's never had the communication background to take the job that he initially had three years ago with the President. And so his communication is not as cautious as it should be in that job, and of course what he said was damaging." Asked if he agreed with the criticism that Trump is trying to purposefully divide the country, Inhofe said: "No." Even some Trump critics were cautious.

Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, the lone Republican who voted to remove Trump from office over abuse of power charges, praised the former defense secretary "as a person of extraordinary integrity and sacrifice. He's a patriot, who has sound judgment and capacity. I admire him a great deal."

But when asked if he agreed with Mattis' criticism, Romney walked away.

This story has been updated with additional developments Thursday.

This image makes me happy.

Murkowski spoke out because she is the only senator who cannot be hurt much by Trump. She already lost a republican primary once before, but won as a write in candidate in the general election. She doesn't need the full support of Trump's base.

For everyone else, they have spent years tying themselves to Trump as much as possible. They will not get credit for dumping him now after every way they have denigrated the country so far to boost him. McConnell literally went on TV and bragged about how his senators we're not even considering the impeachment charges in good faith. You can't do that and then switch to "ya he's actually a menace who isn't fit for office"

For better or worse, they all sink or swim with Trump

It seems that Biden is coming up against a lot of criticism for not fully supporting police officers and they are responding positively towards Trump's law and order rhetoric. This is going to be a lot more complicated than some of you are imagining . People are very fickle and Trump has a charisma that we don't understand. Like Hitler. We might get an ice cold bucket of water thrown in our faces. I myself am hoping that Trump dies from apoplexy.

Idk r228. Go look at any thread monitoring the protests and you will find dozens of people at various point saying what you are saying now, that there will be a backlash that helps Trump. All of it was wrong as he is now in a nadir.

You need to understand that blustering about "Law & Order" and trying to show yourself as someone who is brutally violent against rabble rousers is a strategy that appeals primarily to old white men. Women of all kinds are no into needless violent machismo. And minorities are the main ones be brutalized. The rest of the electorate was deeply turned off by his actions. More than anything else in at least a year. I think some users on this site can't separate what sounds appealing to then personally from what they think is a sound general election message. As a hint, this ain't it chief.

I'm not saying it is it. But it's not in the bag as I'm getting the impression from so many people it is. Also word is getting stronger about Floyd being on drugs at the time of his arrest(you keep hearing on the 911 transcription the caller saying how strange Floyd is acting) and also his criminal past and pistol whipping a woman in her home. Of course it has no bearing on how the man was abused and killed by police but there will be many white conservatives young and old who will have it in their head no matter how unfair it is. You'll want to hurl when some people start turning his killer into some kind of martyr. If you don't think this is possible you haven't been alive very long. We are only at the beginning of this.

"This" is about so very much more than about Floyd.... the video of his murder opened a door.... but what's come out is so much larger than that one event.

Yes on both sides. I'm kind of frightened about what's going to happen. Not so much in terms of violence but in terms of racial hated and resentment. Where I live there is going to be a peace march tomorrow and that is what I firmly believe it will be However I found it upsetting to see stores and restaurants boarding up windows.

I'm beginning to wonder whether you're a troll. You claim you're worried about race relations? He's a hint to help you do your part. When you come mealy mouthed excuses for the cold blooded murder of black man for a minor misdemeanor charge like you do in r230 you aren't helping things.

I'm trying to help you see what's going on. If you want a cheerleader for your side I'm there. But it is NOT in the bag. I wrote R232 and you need to know fear and resentment are growing on both sides. I truly was unnerved seeing those boards up. People are scared. If you say I'm a troll I feel bad but there's nothing I can do about it.

Really and what made you bring up Floyd's history or that he has used drugs? It's pretty hard for me to think of a non deplorable you think that's relevant.

Of course it is relevant because it's being talked about. It is not relevant to me or you but I have a very conservative family and it is relevant to them and their friends. If you can't see why this is an issue and an important one I can't help you to see it. The whole shoot if they loot is not only Trump speaking.

[quote] I have a very conservative family and it is relevant to them and their friends

This says it all. If its your very conservative family and friends who think Floyd's past is relevant to the situation, explain to them why it isn't.

So what if he did drugs..did he deserve to murdered by the cops?

I have to not speak to them about politics. It makes me furious. I will not cut them out of my life for being trumptards so I ignore it. We are not going to change each others minds. The odd thing is that a sister who loves Trump has a husband who loathes him. Their arguments are infuriating and pointless. My sisters are extremely well educated and accomplished so I have no idea what's going on in their heads. They accept me for being gay and another sister went to her friend's son gay wedding with HER husband who is an exmilitary conservative is/ wass against gay marriage!!! (I did confront them about this.)Has he changed his mind?

I just try not to think about these things.

@R239

-50/10

'So what if he did drugs..did he deserve to murdered by the cops?'

NO NO and NO!

But there are people who say and there are enough who support Trump who have the 'He had it coming to him' mindset. And then when there are the police who think Biden is anti law and order you have a shit storm. I just don't know why you people refuse to see this.

R240. You clearly do not live on this planet unless you insist on only surrounding yourself with people who think exactly like you. You will find life very perplexing. 'You have to learn it for yourself.' Wiser words have never been spoken.

I can't believe people watch his press conferences and his antics like he did the other day and still support this clown. It's insane.

Trump's support from registered Republicans and non college educated males -- the Base -- is slipping.

-50/10. Absolutely true if it were fiction. But it's not no matter how much I would have liked it to be.

[quote] 'So what if he did drugs..did he deserve to murdered by the cops?'

I’m reminded of the Jim Crow era white jury that found the Black guy guilty of something or other, where a juror reasoned that, if he didn’t do this particular crime, he probably did some other crime anyway, hence the jury verdict.

That’s not how Justice is supposed to work in America.

R245 Another analogy to this BS argument about "he was crazy and deserved to die".... "well if she didn't want to be raped why did she wear those sexy clothes... she was begging to be raped."

Hopefully the Mattis letter will be an catalyst for other former top Trump administration officials to come out of hiding and put their own thoughts in writing. You know Rex Tillerson hates Trump's guts. He needs to strap on a pair and say something beneficial toward ridding the country of the great orange filth.

[quote]Look for vulnerable Republican senators, like Collins and Gardner, to openly criticize Trump in coming weeks.

Gardner is in a bind because he needs the support of Trump voters to have any chance of keeping his Senate seat,but at the same time he has alienated Colorado voters with his strong support of Trump.

Gardner is trailing Hickenlooper by 17 & 18 points in the last 2 Senate polls, so he's probably finished anyway.

Even if I knew for certain Joe was going to beat Dump in a landslide...I would STILL vote. Because it's my one chance to say "FUCK YOU!" to that fat, orange fuck and his hemorrhoid-like followers, and have it count. My posts here don't. My tweets mean jack. I'll never see any of those bastards in the flesh to tell them to GFT.

My vote is just one vote, but it is something tangible. Honestly, I can hardly wait!

Another reason to vote is to give Joe an overwhelming popular vote mandate for change. It makes a difference. You know it makes a difference to Trump that he was denied a popular vote majority. I’m in a deep blue state, Massachusetts, but I voted for that reason, and in 2016, I also wanted to take part in electing the first woman President, like I voted for the first Black President. But still...

And will continue to slide R243

They know he's crazy now.

They've just been waiting for an easy out, a reason to say they can't support him anymore.

"If Marine General Mattis says he's bad, that's enough for me" is really easy out, especially when they are no longer the only one of their friends.

These things build up momentum quickly

Meanwhile, McSally is now down 13 points in the new Fox News poll:

*ARIZONA*

Kelly (D) 50%

McSally (R) 37%

That just warms the heart seeing that, r252/PT.

Not trying to rain on the parade but also remember Trump won't stay this low forever. There will always be a small reversion to mean factor. He's not going to recover most of what he lost but the polls will probably go up a little in a week or two from now before they stabilize at a new normal. Don't feel discouraged when this happens. It always does as the news cycle moves on. People don't forget, but some of the raw emotion of this week will be gone. There are five more months until we vote him out for good

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·NOW

Few people know where they’ll be in two years from now, but I do, in the Great State of Alaska (which I love) campaigning against Senator Lisa Murkowski. She voted against HealthCare, Justice Kavanaugh, and much else...

...Unrelated, I gave Alaska ANWR, major highways, and more. Get any candidate ready, good or bad, I don’t care, I’m endorsing. If you have a pulse, I’m with you!

Incumbents usually are penalized in times of unrest

by Harry Enten, CNN

There are a lot of unknowns in how the last few weeks will play politically... But history does suggest that incumbents usually are penalized in situations like these...

[quote]Because it's my one chance to say "FUCK YOU!" to that fat, orange fuck and his hemorrhoid-like followers, and have it count.

That is actually a great way to get people to the polls.

More good news on the Biden front. Ukraine officially says Hunter Biden did nothing wrong. I hope Trump shits himself over this. He really wanted to use the line that Joe Biden's son is a crook to sway voters against him.

That’s bold of the Ukrainians. I’m sure they know what Trump wanted to hear, and how vulnerable they are to him until January.

Five fucking months. Ugh.

really, can't it just be a video game and we skip ahead? He's shit, he's always been shit, he always will be shit. Do we need to actually wade through it?

the Cult is still strong. I don't know if even the weakest Republican Senators can afford to say one tiny word against Trump still? It really is a death cult, and I think they have calculated that they must die, electorally (I think), rather than speak out against Dear Leader.

whatever he wins by, even if it's by one vote Pierre, he should act like it's a landslide. Just as Republicans ALWAYS do. And even more important than that: DO NOT GIVE FUCK ONE ABOUT THE DEFICIT. Every dumb bitch will move in three seconds after a Joe Biden victory to announce while sobbing and rending their garments that the most important thing is to get this terrifying deficit under control. Ignore those fucks!

Here's my thinking... and the Trump team may not be wrong...

I think that they believe that they will win this election by just using the internet and through media photo ops. The Trump internet army is VERY strong and it's quite pervasive over the internet. As of late, the media photo ops have been backfiring ie the Bible and the church, but who knows how influential all of these methods will be as we move closer to the election and they become much more fine-tuned and targeted?

The Russians are going to infect Biden with Coved-19. Hmm, “Coved-19” sounds like the name for a 1960s sci-fi movie.

I won't deny, ever, that they have a chance, r264, but it is actually different when a President is running for reelection. It really is. It's not some plucky challenger who may or may not do well and people can look and say, well, maybe. It really is different when there is a whole actual record. Especially when it's a record of shit.

[quote]and I think they have calculated that they must die, electorally (I think), rather than speak out against Dear Leader.

If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population of deplorables.

[quote]It really is different when there is a whole actual record. Especially when it's a record of shit.

Okay... I know that I have written this before somewhere on this site; Here's how Republicans win and will always win over the Democrats....

Republicans know that the average American is DUMB & STUPID! And, it works for them every time. Republicans know that the average American will not read or research anything. They have now effectively trained at minimum 40% of the US population to watch and trust one network.

well, Dems (and I admit with a lot of help from the Lincoln Project, ya know, those cutthroat Republicans who really know how to bring the hate) are just going to have to remind the average American over and over and over again that the Republican Party does not give a shit about them, ever.

^But, you bring up the problem with Democrats, R269. Democrats play by the rules and play too nice. This is just music to the ears of Republicans because they know that they don't and won't. IT IS DISGRACEFUL how Democrats allowed Mitch McConnell to get away with that Merrick Garland nomination. If anything happens to RBG (God forbid), Mitch has already told Democrats to kiss his ass and go sit down somewhere because he will fill that seat. And, you know what? He will.

Democrats want mail-in voting for all 50 States. Republicans will nearly slit (or possibly slit) their throats to stop that. They're likely to get their way too.

That; "When they go low, we go high" mess works for Michelle Obama and her book sales. Republicans depend on Democrats to be nice and weak.

well, I kind of agree r270, but what would you say Democrats should do right now? What is the message? I agree, and honestly I think most Democrats agree. I don't think anyone is willing to go high at this point. But what would you like to see?

R255 The best response to that tweet was George Conway saying, "do you know you'll be on parole in two years?"

[quote]what would you say Democrats should do right now?

IMHO, they need to hire the Lincoln Project and Bloomberg's team that can get just as nasty and nastier than the Republicans. Oh! They will scream! But, so what! This is war!

Democrats need grass root pacs that will define every single Republican as a racist and a part of the Confederacy. Oh! They will scream! But, so what!

Democrats need more ads like the one in the link.

Then, (IMHO), Democrats need to come up with some type of marketing campaign that will discredit the internet and most of these social media platforms.

I think they do need to go for the jugular r273. I agree with that. Don't be polite about this shit.

HOLY FUCKING SHIT

Peggy Noonan (of all people!) Reagan's old speechwriter just wrote the most perfect anti-Trump column ever in the history of anti-Trumpism. (Listen to the message before you tear into the messenger"

[bold] .Upon arrival with his friends, the people who work for him, he brandished a Bible like—who in history?—the devil?

In all this he gave up the game and explicitly patronized his own followers. It was as if he was saying: [italic] I’m going to show you how stupid I know you are. I’ll give you crude and gross imagery and you’ll love it because you’re crude and gross people. [/italic]

And some would love it. But not all. Not most, I think.

He has maxed out his base. He’s got his 40% and will keep it, but it isn’t growing. His polls are down, he has historically high negatives. As for suburban women, they’d crawl over broken husbands to vote him out.

He is proud of his many billionaire friends and think they love him. They don’t. Their support is utterly transactional. They’re embarrassed by him. When they begin to think he won’t be re-elected they will turn, and it will be bloody and on a dime.

This will not end well. With his timing he’d know it. He should give an Oval Office address announcing he’s leaving: “America, you don’t deserve me.” Truer words have never been spoken in that old place. And he won’t be outshone by his successor.

Network producers will listen to Mike Pence once and say, “Let’s do ‘Shark Week.’ ” But you know, America could use a shark week.

[quote] what would you say Democrats should do right now?

Another thing (IMHO) Democrats need to get rid of Chuck Schumer ASAP. He's worthless. Miss Nancy is notching her victories and what is Chuck doing? Now, unless he, (Schumer), has some long-term plan to get rid of all of these Trump incompetent/racist judges that have been appointed lifetime positions, then he has been absolutely worthless.

wow, r275, they are starting to get it. He absolutely sucks. He is shit. Good. They suck too, but I am fine with them starting to get it.

[quote]He is proud of his many billionaire friends and think they love him. They don’t. Their support is utterly transactional. They’re embarrassed by him.

This is when the people must act. We ain't going for this. You see what Wendys had to do. Equinox had to donate $1MM, etc. It must be made clear that we will no longer tolerate this.

[quote] he brandished a Bible like—who in history?—the devil?

Best Line Ever given that she's like 80 years old.

Followed by

[quote] As for suburban women, they’d crawl over broken husbands to vote him out.

[quote]Peggy Noonan (of all people!) Reagan's old speechwriter just wrote the most perfect anti-Trump column ever in the history of anti-Trumpism.

It doesn't matter. Trump people don't even know who or what a Peggy Noonan is. You think that Matt Gaetz, Tom Cotton, or Lindsey Graham, gives a shit about what Noonan says? Her writings and similar ie George Will are just breast milk for Democrats.

Ronald Brownstein on Trump's problems with the suburbs & college whites:

[quote]For 2 years, Rs have strenuously avoided discussing how Trump contributed to their suburban wipe-out in 2018. This week's national polls from @MonmouthPoll & @CBSNews both put Trump's disapproval w/college+ whites at 63%. Fox AZ poll showed McSally -13 w/them.

I actually love Noonan's writing style.

she's a fraud, r282, you should stop

SIgh R280

We don't need to convert the rednecks and Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack types. They don't read and they are beyond hope.

But most important, they are at best 30%-35% of the electorate.

We need to convert the suburbanites who voted for Romney and McCain and donate money and will read Peggy Noonan's column and hopefully cut a check to The Lincoln Project.

She's a lot of things r283 and a good writer is one of them.

well, she does write well, but damn, she writes a lot of lies, so okay r285

+1 on R285

And when she tells the truth like she did with Trump in that column R286, there is no one better.

Millions could head to dc and do this.

Noonan is a good writer. And is insufferably self-gloating in real time interviews, beyond her troglodyte politics.

Noonan is a good writer. And is insufferably self-gloating in real time interviews, beyond her troglodyte politics.

Millions came up Seoul. They overthrew their corrupt president by pressuring the parliament to impeach her.

In Korea it was every weekend. Here it could be everyday for months.

[quote]Democrats need grass root pacs that will define every single Republican as a racist and a part of the Confederacy. Oh! They will scream! But, so what!

Ya see? This shouldn't be hard

I’m sorry but I’m gonna have to call a Concern Troll Alert on r229, r230, r254, r259, r262, r264, r268, et al. Your slip is showing, fellas.

His numbers are getting worse.

32% support his handling of the fallout from Floyd's murder. 66% disapprove.

That's worse than the 33 -55 he had before

R294, someone expressing worry doesn't mean he's a concern troll. Not everyone is super confident about things turning out well, and they're pointing out the angles from which they fear something bad might be coming, probably to have someone in the thread tell them why it's not something to worry about. Some DLers (maybe including you) were certain Cheeto would be removed from office by this past January.

Thank you r296. I am r254. I really wasn't trying to concern troll. We should feel very good about how the race looks right now.

I just didn't want people to feel distraught if Trump gains a point or two next week as historically that's what happens a week after a particularly awful news cycle passes. If he does, it won't be a sign that he's actually picking up any support.

R297 Yep... the jobs numbers today and Trump's relentless victory lap will push him up a couple points. But the fundamentals are still in place... he is in a weak position and his "path" to victory is much more difficult than Biden's. But we need to be unified and vigilant. If Biden is ahead by 4-5% all that means is we need to work harder. Our country simply cannot survive another four years of this.

R294 = concern troll accuser.

The thing about Peggy Noonan is that her column runs on the Wall Street Journal editorial page, which is Holy Writ for conservatives.

If they see her giving voice to what they're thinking but didn't want to say out loud, more people will turn on Trump.

I dunno, the Cult is pretty strong. It's way past conservatism or anything rational. The Cult can't be saved. I suspect anyone who will turn has turned already.

Although by this time next year, I suspect millions of people will pretend they were never in the Cult at all.

Understand that this week was probably the polling peak for Biden. The better than expected jobs numbers will help Trump with his base and with Independents, and the pandemic and protests will fade. I still think Trump will lose in November, but I don't think it will be the blowout that this week's polling is showing. The race will tighten again.

Yeah, r302, I agree wholeheartedly.

New Texas poll. Tied race at 48 each. Very very few undecided people

[quote]Meanwhile, McSally is now down 13 points in the new Fox News poll:

This awful, horrendous whore needs to be gone ASAP. She already lost an election for a Senate seat, and then was “appointed” by the Governor.

The voters have already spoken and don’t want this cunt. She wasn’t elected to the Senate and is a fraud. Get rid of her NOW.

R302, "blowouts" are impossible given the current divisions in the country and how they are reflected in the Electoral College. No one has been predicting one. The employment numbers are extremely high (and probably higher than the current official number), and we will have to wait and see on both the pandemic and the protests. Trump lives to encourage chaos.

R306, the bureau of labor statics releases a range of unemployment figures. For some weird reason the media and DL focus on the U3 number. The U6 figure, which is also known as real or true unemployment, stands at 21.2% which is down from 22.8%. The U6 figure takes into account things like marginal employment and discouraged workers. Right now the figure is extremely high because of part tims and furloughed workers.

[quote]The thing about Peggy Noonan is that her column runs on the Wall Street Journal editorial page, which is Holy Writ for conservatives. If they see her giving voice to what they're thinking but didn't want to say out loud, more people will turn on Trump.

Breast milk for Democrats. Her writings are meaningless. Look... we're talking about a group of people that want more tax cuts and deregulation. To hell, with Patty NoWho and what she writes.

Just look at Trump's war chest and how it is growing. These people want him and the Republicans to remain in power.

[quote]Wendy’s has announced it will be donating $500,000 to show its commitment to supporting the black community, one day after it received substantial backlash on social media over reports that James Bodenstedt, the CEO of a company that franchises hundreds of Wendy’s, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell locations, had donated more than $440,000 to President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.

Those are not the people who read the WSJ editorial R308

Trump's money comes from other self-made types like himself, like the Home Depot guy

The Skadden Arps partners and Goldman Sachs bankers who read Peggy Noonan because they themselves were Reagnauts back in the 80s, are using this as a reason to break from Trump.

The fact that their wives are threatening to castrate them doesn't hurt either.

Republicans and Russians LIE about the issues, r273.

Democrats don't have to lie to win — the truth is horrifying enough.

So don't suggest we need any Pizzagates or Scarboroughgates or Swift Boat Veterans. Progressives should be better than that and they can win that way.

I dunno r310, the whole go high thing seems to be mainly bullshit. Maybe not lie, but constantly go for the jugular. Constantly. The Never Trumpers are good at that.

[quote]Trump's money comes from other self-made types like himself, like the Home Depot guy

Trump is not self made. Daddy Fred Trump made the money.

Harry Enten:

If you take all the polling in aggregate, it's pretty clear the protests and Trump's reaction to them haven't helped his cause. Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump on it, and Biden's numbers against him are steady if not up a little.

We have to be careful though, people will get riot fatigue. Just like covid being the only thing covered 24/7 for weeks, riots can be overexposed too. People will just want the riots to stop & they want want to hear about BLM. It’s 24/7 cable tv nowadays. It’s not 1968. They couldn’t even do live transmittals in 1968. They filmed & edited everything.

We have to be careful though, people will get riot fatigue. Just like covid being the only thing covered 24/7 for weeks, riots can be overexposed too. People will just want the riots to stop & they want want to hear about BLM. It’s 24/7 cable tv nowadays. It’s not 1968. They couldn’t even do live transmittals in 1968. They filmed & edited everything.

R312 Exactly. Somebody a couple of years ago calculated that if the 40 mil that Trump's Daddy gave had been put in a standard index fund rather than let Don play with it.... he'd have more money than he has now.

He was born on third base and.... is still threre.

Now WILLIAM BARR is distancing himself from the fascist church stunt. This is the only thing I've ever seen this sack of shit backtrack on. He claims (absurdly) the park police decided on their own to gas and beat the protestors and he didn't know it was going to happen

As if, r317!

That fat, treasonous fuck needs kicked in his hunt until dead.

Sen. Mark Warner says Attorney General William Barr is "unfit for office" and calls for him to resign after protesters were cleared from near the White House

[quote]Sen. Mark Warner says Attorney General William Barr is "unfit for office" and calls for him to resign after protesters were cleared from near the White House

LOL!!!!

Fat fucks with tiny micro meat penises. Dump, Pompeo and Barr. They probably can't even find their dicks...this is why they hate.

[QUOTE] We have to be careful though, people will get riot fatigue. Just like covid being the only thing covered 24/7 for weeks, riots can be overexposed too. People will just want the riots to stop & they want want to hear about BLM. It’s 24/7 cable tv nowadays. It’s not 1968. They couldn’t even do live transmittals in 1968. They filmed & edited everything.

We don’t need riots or a bad economy to reach 270 electoral votes and beat Donald Trump, R315. Would it tighten if things improve or people get “riot fatigue,” as you call it? Absolutely. But I always expected a tighter race. Seeing and posting about Joe Biden’s wide recent polling leads are just moments for us to be happy and enjoy the ride on the road to defeating Trump, but there will be plenty of bumps ahead.

In the end we need 270 electoral votes on November 3, and the key to that is winning the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Or if Arizona is in the mix now, maybe Wisconsin isn’t all that necessary. But we definitely need to win Pennsylvania and Michigan.

R323 Of course the race is going to be closer than current polling suggests. Presidential races almost always "tighten up" when getting close to election day. We can't be complacent and need to work harder, and harder... winning much more than 270. If it's just one state that gets Biden the win.... Florida, Michigan, Arizona.... you can be assured that Republicans will challenge it, and you remember 2020. It'd be even more disastrous - with this President and this Supreme Court. You can be assured that the "legal challenge" is being prepared right now for those swing states.

So, we need the electoral college win to have a cushion of multiple states.... AND the larger turnout and win will help capture the Senate.

Work for a Big Win.... the intestines need a colonic.

Here is the deal... We know that Trump has a rock solid base of about 41 to 43 percent. Then you have to also take into account the "secret" Trump supporters. These are the people are quietly support him, but wouldn't be caught dead around those clowns and trash who populate his rallies.

Now lets go back to 2016. What's different this time? Joe Biden is not the polarizing candidate that Hillary was. As we witnessed in the primaries, Joe Biden seems to have a gotten a lot of the democratic voters who couldn't/didn't vote for Hillary back into the fold.

Now lets look at Trump. He was a novelty act floating on an outsider balloon and promises of running the country like a businessman in 2016. The media loves a novelty act and the media loves to beat up on Hillary Clinton. So basically Trump got a lot of air time for being a joke.

This time around Trump has a record. This time around there is no Hillary Clinton. This time around we have a botched handling of a pandemic and a tone deaf and just ignorant response to civil unrest. And the economy that Trump could crow about, is now in shambles.

It's tough to beat an incumbent. He has a huge war chest and the power presidency behind his candidacy. But it can be done. Stop worrying about every poll fluctuation. Stop worrying about the mid west and suburban white women. Stop the debate on who black people will and won't accept. Stop getting distracted by things that just don't matter, then volunteer, vote and make sure that you get at least 10 like-minded friends/neighbors to the polls with you.

41% is too high. I would say maximum 35% solid Trump base.

R324. Yes. I'd add a step that may be the hardest.... take a break from trolling those who oppose Trump. Ex-Bernie boys, white libertarian, tech narcissists, NeverTrumpers, DSA, old black church folk, young woke hipsters, latino immigrants and third generation Cubans.... it's a really Big Tent that's needed, and the left is so much more skilled at ripping each other apart as opposed to the right which just suck it up and win with a minority of the public's support.

Solidarity! Unity! (at least until November, then go back to fucking with each after that).

I would add that Trump could at times seem vaguely likeable when he was a reality TV star or appearing on Howard Stern and people allowed themselves to believe that he'd behave rationally as president and/or be like Bush The Younger and mostly play golf while other people ran the country for him.

They now know that was 100% incorrect and then some.

[quote]We know that Trump has a rock solid base of about 41 to 43 percent.

Made up primarily of people who would vote for Hitler as long as he had an R next to his name.

I think it's more like 35% to 40% at the highest. 36% approve of the job he's done on the protests. I'd say that's close to his real base percent.

I think protest fatigue has already set in. I noticed David Muir didn't spend his whole show on the protests last night. The widespread looting and destruction seemed to cast a pall over the movement early on and while people overwhelmingly sympathize, the destruction was a step too far and very early on. With that said, I doubt protest fatigue will hurt Joe at all. Most people are sympathetic and want change despite being done with the protests. And the protests will wane on their own anyway as more places reopen and people have less time in their hands. Happened in 2014 too.

R330 You are fatigued. Ok. There is the largest protest in DC gathering right now in front of the White House.

74% of Americans view George Floyd's death as an indication of an underlying racial injustice problem. Saying people are getting "fatigued" with protest must be balanced against the reality that people really getting "fatigued" with racism. That's the deeper soul fatigue that won't go away with a new news cycle.

Idk if any of these people are trolls but "protest fatigue" is entirely made up.

Approval of the protests was in the 50s when they started and is in the 60s and 70s now. Support of the protests went up by double digits over the last week. A poll yesterday found almost 70 % of voters thought the protests were primarily motivated by legitimate greivances with policing policy while only 29% thought they were just people who wanted to commit illegal acts like looting.

The exact same poll put Trump's approval at 41 so that means NOT EVEN ALL THE TRUMPERS think the protests are mostly about "rioting".

That would make the people taking about fatigue here either particularly loyal Trumpers. Or people who just have no idea what they're talking about and pulling things out of their ass.

Either way, not people you should pay much attention

No, R330, there's no "fatigue," and furthermore his name is correctly "David Tyler Muir," as you would know if you weren't a TROLL.

[quote]That would make the people taking about fatigue here either particularly loyal Trumpers

Either that or the overly concerned. These are the types who are terrified that Midwesterners and suburban voters are going to be "turned off".

The thing about protests is that half the people who should be out in the streets ARE NOT out in the streets. We have turned the clock back on so much shit in this country over the last 4 years that there should be daily protests. But there are so many people who are complacent and who do not want to make waves.

As a gay man and even to the women on here, do you feel like you've progressed forward at all in the last four years? Aren't you tired of playing by the rules and then getting shit on over and over again?

No, r333, that would make me someone who just doesn't give a shit about the "David Tyler Muir" threads and someone who thinks it's ridiculous to use three names when he, himself, goes by David Muir. There's quite a few DLisms that I think are stupid and don't use.

No. The protests are GROWING. It doesn't matter if the networks stop covering them, the people are showing up. In large cities, in small towns, in other countries. Protestors are willing to risk COVID and DIE to march. And, if people aren't able to protest, they're following them on SM some way and supporting in other ways.

Fools who say that there will be 'fatigue' from this are so, so hopeful it will all go away. But, no. Not this time.

[quote]You are fatigued. Ok.

I'm not alone in that.

[quite]There is the largest protest in DC gathering right now in front of the White House.

As there should be. And there should be protests around statehouses and city halls instead of the daily running around neighborhoods of people who are sympathetic to the cause. Take the protests to where they would have meaning instead of the low hanging fruit of The Barclay Center. But that would take actual work and time so organizers go with the low hanging fruit. And this is what is causing the fatigue. "Oh, another night of people holding signs at the Barclay Center and rampaging through midtown. What else is on?"

[quote]74% of Americans view George Floyd's death as an indication of an underlying racial injustice problem.

I actually agreed with that in my post. Still doesn't mean people are getting tired of the nightly protests in their neighborhood.

[quote]Saying people are getting "fatigued" with protest must be balanced against the reality that people really getting "fatigued" with racism. That's the deeper soul fatigue that won't go away with a new news cycle.

Hate to break it to you but people were saying this after Eric Garner and after a few weeks people moved on.

[quote] I actually agreed with that in my post. Still doesn't mean people are getting tired of the nightly protests in their neighborhood.

Did you mean “aren’t”?

Yes, r338, trying to text a friend at the same time and half paying attention to both. Thanks for the catch.

I think the protest in DC in front of Lafayette Square is a protest/block party. Which is fine by me.

[QUOTE] Fools who say that there will be 'fatigue' from this are so, so hopeful it will all go away. But, no. Not this time.

I know one group who won’t be suffering any riot fatigue: the African-Americans who have to put up with an overbearing, dehumanizing police state 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So Joe Biden needs to prepare to be a voice for them throughout the election because they’re not going away and we need them to win.

Believe me, if it weren't for the virus, I'd be in the streets as well but I'm too old to get that shit and have too many depending on my paycheck.

However, I call my idiot thug Senator and mock his "pro life" bullshit every day. I donate bail money and have volunteered to help drive protesters out of the area in case of trouble.

We can all do our part. Even if we're not in the streets. We can support them.

The new poll from Civiqs shows record support for Black Lives Matter:

[quote]Support for the #BlackLivesMatter movement is the highest it has ever been in over three years of polling @Civiqs. This weekend was the single most significant shift in Americans' racial attitudes since we began asking the question in April 2017.

I still can't believe that out of ca. ONE HUNDRED+ MILLION adult people in the US (eligible for POTUS status: 35+ etc) - THIS is the best both parties could come up with: 2 old geezers duking it out, especially now in the Age of Covid-19. It's like a tragicomedy.

[quote] THIS is the best both parties could come up with: 2 old geezers duking it out, especially now in the Age of Covid-19. It's like a tragicomedy.

If you're equating Trump and Biden, aside from their age, you're a fucking idiot.

Don't engage with obvious trolls R345

You only encourage them

This poll came at it from a different angle:

"Do you think that Trump's response to the demonstrations around the country has..."

Decreased tensions 18% Increased tensions 67%

63% of white people think Trump's actions have increased tensions

This is how it ends

Biden up 12 in new Michigan poll.

Also

[quote] Fox News polls released Wednesday showed Trump trailing Biden in three other battleground states the president won in 2016: Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona.

I can hear the incoherent White Hose screams from my bedroom in Ohio

Question from a foreign poster. Is there real organisation beginning to form behind the protest movement? Without making sure everyone is registered to vote and then actually go out to vote when there are elections then actual change is not going to happen. I understand the massive anger within communities and the need for that to be expressed but it needs to begin being directed and organised. I don’t really seem to be hearing that yet.

[quote]Is there real organisation beginning to form behind the protest movement? Without making sure everyone is registered to vote and then actually go out to vote when there are elections then actual change is not going to happen.

This is what Stacey Abrams should be put in charge of, rather than thirsting for the Vice Presidency.

Voter suppression is her signature issue. Imagine the impact she could have getting all these minorities and protestors organized and registered to vote.

Harry Enten:

[quote]Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did from June onward: 50%. Unlike four years ago, Trump will likely need to win back voters who are already backing the Dem nominee.

Here's the new poll referenced by R349:

**MICHIGAN**

EPIC-MRA poll

Biden (53%)

Trump (41%)

PollTroll, correct me if I'm wrong, but the only support Trump now has is with white men and even with that group he's down significantly.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump· (JUST NOW)

If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats. Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!

R355, yes, Trump's numbers with whites have eroded, although he still leads with white men and voters without a college degree.

However, in the new NBC/WSJ poll, Trump has weaker numbers against Biden than he did against Hillary.

Trump's lead with voters without a college degree is smaller than 2016, and he is much farther behind among voters with a college degree.

The numbers are an embarrassment for Dump.

But, is all of this too early?

Okay... I've asked this before but let me explain further; I think all of this is GREAT! But, from now til Nov 3rd is like two lifetimes in politics. Now... "if" Democrats can effectively define Trump and the Republicans (what Sen Romney & Gen Powell did was GREAT!) as racists, out-of-touch, etc and make it stick, then maybe I'd feel a bit more comfortable with all of this that is going on.

What’s going to change between now and then, R359? Donald Trump will suddenly transform into a better candidate in five months?

He could, R360. I've written this on one of these threads before; The American electorates have short-term memories. Also, what Republicans KNOW is that the American electorate is dumb and stupid. So, it's very possible that Trump can improve his standing.

R359 I think you are almost apply a sports paradigm on this.... "we are running too fast, and we'll use up all of our energy and this lead means we won't the stamina to finish strong, and Trump's pacing himself and will out-kick us at the end of the race..."

I don't think politics works that way. Could Trump come back? Yes, of course. Could he win? Absolutely. But would it be better to be tied at this point rather than up ten points? Hell no. The only problem is possible complacency, and I don't think that will happen this election. That 49% who are ready to vote for Biden right now are rabid, anxious, focused.... can't wait to turnout.

My own unprofessional, way-too-soon prediction is Biden 52% Trump 47% with all the key swing states trending Blue. I think the Dems win the Senate. And I am vigilant, not over-confident.

There’s ALWAYS an October surprise, so I wouldn’t count anything out yet.

[quote]If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia

That's our president. Jan Brady.

He could win, but not because he changes as a candidate. He never changes. He's a one-trick pony; he just digs in deeper where he is and trusts his base to carry him through. But his base isn't doing it for him right now. And there's no chance some disaster will make the country rally around him; we've been hit with disasters all year and people hate the way he handles them (the covid epidemic gave him a pathetic 5-point bump in the spring that never brought him close to 50% and quickly evaporated). If he wins it will be because the economic and health crises are resolved and he wins back a margin of voters in a few swing states (reproducing the result in 2016).

“Trump has a woman problem.”

Shocker.

On the numbers changing before November, I have two reasons to think they will be fairly stable. Even though Biden will come down a bit from this peak there isn't likely to be a huge fundamental shift.

1) Of the 55%ish of voters who disapprove of Trump. Around 45-50% register as "strongly disapproving" of him. Those numbers are unprecedented for an American president. It's much harder to change the minds of voter who have self-described strong opinions. That gives Biden a much higher "floor" than Trump

2) A competent politician could very well rally the country and convince some skeptical voters by giving Dems something to at least mildly appease us. Trump is his own worst enemy in this regard. He has never showed any ability or inclination whatsoever to expand his base. He can get his base to love him and worship him as if he was Christ. They will say and do anything for him. But he has never been able to win over skeptics. I don't see why he'd suddenly get good at it before November. It's important to note Obama, and all past presidents usually tried to moderate in the months leading up to election to avoid pissing off and energizing the opposition to much. But Trump delights in pissing off democrats and he thinks of it as weakness to offer any concession, that might take some steam out of our outrage

The polls were extremely stable before this. I think they will continue to be

The RACIST plans to speak...

White House is considering a Trump speech to the nation on race and unity

By Kristen Holmes and Sarah Westwood, CNN

Updated 8:40 PM ET, Sun June 7, 2020

(CNN)After a weekend of massive peaceful protests around the country, White House officials are currently deliberating a plan for President Donald Trump to address the nation this week on issues related to race and national unity, as Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson hinted in an interview with CNN on Sunday and a senior administration official said was under serious consideration.

Many allies of the President spent the last week distraught as they watched Trump fumble his response to the police killing of George Floyd, only to follow his perceived silence on the resulting racial tensions with a federal law enforcement crackdown on the protesters near his fortified doorstep.

Aides and allies were not comforted by the backlash over his decision to have federal officers aggressively clear Lafayette Park in front of the White House to facilitate a widely-panned attempt at a photo-op in front of St. John's Church. And the rest of the week continued on a downward spiral, as protests across the country grew and Trump faced an onslaught of well-known conservatives, generals and former Trump administration officials who excoriated his response and called for new leadership come November.

Carson suggested during an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" that the President this week would further address Floyd's killing and the tensions it exposed.

"I believe you're going to be hearing from the President this week on this topic in some detail. And I would ask you maybe to reserve judgment until after that time," Carson said.

Despite the belief by many aides and allies that this was one of the worst weeks of Trump's tenure, a source close to the White House said there has been a more optimistic shift in the last two days.

The shocking job numbers released Friday showing a better-than-expected picture kicked off the weekend, and while the White House has struggled to come up with any sort of consistent messaging in response to Floyd's death while in police custody, and the movement it touched off, officials are starting the week with new resolve and new talking points.

Allies and advisers believe that the lack of violence over the weekend allows the President to double down on his "law and order" message, painting the relative calm as a direct result of his push for "domination" in the streets, a source close to the White House told CNN.

Additionally, some in and around the White House now believe they were given a gift by protesters over the weekend, as chants of "defund the police" permeated the streets. This source said there are plans to link Democrats to this effort in the hope of siphoning off more moderate voters who may view it as extreme.

Trump spent Sunday morning linking former Vice President Joe Biden to the "defund the police" movement, and his campaign has already begun to hammer Biden and other Democrats over what the President's team has tried to frame as their tolerance of destruction and lawlessness.

"Defund the Police" is the push by some activists for a sizable chunk of a city's police budget to instead be invested in communities, especially marginalized ones where much of the policing occurs.

It will backfire. He doesn't know how to being people together. He's NEVER been good at it. He can only attack. He's going to attack everyone besides his base in the speech like he always does

Anyone else notice Mitt Romney is acting like a man who expects to be the republican nominee? The whole thing with his father earlier this week and now he's marching at a protest.

I think he might be trying to flip Utah against Trump, R370. Utah is heavily Republican but many Mormons despise Trump. Maybe he’s trying to make Mormons think of Trump as someone a Mormon can’t vote for by bringing up his moral failings.

I think that the success of the Biden campaign--and his hopefully winning the presidency, is giving the itch to Romney to launch a 3rd bid for the White House. After all... it's Biden's 3rd run, look at his age, and I believe (hopefully) the Republican party will be in shambles after this election.

I think it is pretty safe to say that Biden will only do this for one term, if elected. The time would be ripe for Romney. Plus,

Do you guys really expect Joe to ride out COVIDmania only popping his head out once every two weeks and then handily best Trump in November? Never say never, but Joe isn’t positioning himself as a leader.

Joe needs to get out ahead of this dismantle the police movement or we're fucked in November.

Romney is 73 now. He's not running in 2024.

Yes, R373. IMHO, the recent events have been a boon for Biden. He only appears if needed and looks presidential each time. The media and everyone else are so occupied with everything else that no one rally focuses on him. Everyone knows that he is the Democratic nominee and the story is how much will Trump hang himself.

[quote]Joe needs to get out ahead of this dismantle the police movement or we're fucked in November.

Not really. It depends upon the plans that people come up with to replace the police. It's not like this hasn't been done before.

[quote]Romney is 73 now. He's not running in 2024.

And, how old is Joe Biden now?

Biden is 77. Let's see if he makes it through his first term. The presidency ages people.

I LOVE THIS GROUP! I will give them money!

[quote]Do you guys really expect Joe to ride out COVIDmania only popping his head out once every two weeks and then handily best Trump in November? Never say never, but Joe isn’t positioning himself as a leader.

Biden's poll numbers continue to rise. So yes, what he is doing is working.

Dismantling the police is not a good look for the Democrats. They need to create the perception that the rogue police are Trump's army against the 1st Amendment and our rights to protest. Trump's march towards Fascism via the Republican police brigade.

I hope Mayor Pete is close to Biden because he understands how to control a narrative.

Trump delivering a speech on racial unity and relieving tensions...

What could go wrong? LOL

Okay this is probably an outlier which is why we average the polls instead of looking at just one. But a new CNN poll finds Biden up 14

R382, thanks for posting the new CNN poll.

More commentary from Nate Cohn here:

[quote]That basically gives us a full 'wave' of the major national polls for the first time since 3/15-4/15, and Biden's lead has grown by an average of 4 points since then

[quote]And, look I understand why people are distrustful of the polls after what happened four years ago, but right now, Biden's would easily withstand another 2016-sized polling error or a wide gap between the Electoral College and the nation as a whole

R381: Wasn’t his last address to the nation about the coronavirus and it sent the country into a panic?

Dump now tries to unify the nation after 10 or so days of protest and after he fired teared gas at peaceful protesters to look tough. Nobody is gonna buy it. Too late Dump!

He's guaranteed to say something absolutely heinous during his address. I'm not looking forward to it.

😂 14 points wow. This is getting crazy.

[quote]I hope Mayor Pete is close to Biden because he understands how to control a narrative.

He really doesn’t. He never got control of the "Pete Buttigieg is a racist and doesn't care at all about the black community" narrative that Joy Reid and others were parroting all throughout Primary season.

The goddamn Republicans are gonna force Trump to fire Brad Pascale or whatever his name is and bring in a heavy hitter. But thankfully the candidate will still be Donald Trump, so it shouldn’t make much of a difference.

Yes, Trump is a racist, but that label in his case is too general and broad, as is the constant description of him as a liar. He is beyond rational in every way, as a racist, as a liar, as a narcissist. Sure, there have been people in history who have done everything "big", from the ancient kings to presidents to entertainers. But they could be pulled down a peg or two and face reality when necessary. Trump is incapable of that. His mighty mountain top needs to explode like a volcano. There is no fixing him. He is dangerous even to the political party he claims to represent. He does not have their interests in mind. He doesn't even have his family's interests in mind. If (and I hope he does) he loses the election and is unwilling to leave peacefully, he will make sure other people are taken out with him, even though he now describes them as "good people". Trump is an extremist in every way, not of the left, not of the right, but for his own benefits to be achieved, even if he destroys the world in the process.

That same CNN poll has Dump’s approval rating at 38 percent. That’s as low as I can remember it going.

Look for the media to start pushing a Trump comeback narrative.

I was expecting that too, R392, but I don’t think they can start that engine up anytime soon when the guy still looks so awful out there.

R392, that would happen for someone who’s more competent.

Trump and his top henchman Bill Barr are still out there talking “law and order,” denying systemic racism exists in the justice system and trashing the protesters because that’s what the base of the Republican Party wants to hear. So there won’t be any comeback narrative for him anytime soon. And the longer it goes on like this without Trump making any changes, the better for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.

Anyone else remember how Trump's approval started improving in early 2018 when it seemed the entire GOP started just keeping their mouth shut, and the media went on a full pro-Trump offensive? It happened all of a sudden; one of the more notable things was Graham suddenly becoming Trump's friend.

Trump's approval had slowly been growing since then, from a low of about 35% up to about 46% in the early days of the pandemic. That two years of work has crashed over the last 10 days or so and he's back down to 36% or so, depending on the poll. As someone mentioned, he's 35% in at least one poll, tied with his worst ever.

Things change quickly but I can't see Trump recovering to even the 49% approval he once had on Gallup.

Well R382, that poll definitely sent him into conniptions

Trump pushes back on CNN poll showing Biden with 14-point lead

BY MAX GREENWOOD - 06/08/20 09:13 AM EDT

President Trump on Monday dismissed a new CNN poll showing him trailing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 14 points in the race for the White House, saying that the network’s polling is “as Fake as their Reporting.”

In a tweet, the president said that CNN polls conducted in 2016 showed then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading him by similar margins. Ultimately, Trump won the race through the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by 2 points to the former secretary of State.

“CNN Polls are as Fake as their Reporting,” Trump tweeted. “Same numbers, and worse, against Crooked Hillary. The Dems would destroy America!”

The tweet came roughly an hour after CNN released a poll showing Biden gaining the support of 55 percent of registered voters surveyed, with Trump trailing by 14 points at 41 percent.

A similar poll released by the network last month showed the former vice president with a narrower 5-point lead over Trump.

Similar polls released at this point in the 2016 presidential race showed a tighter race between Trump and Clinton. A CNN-ORC survey conducted in June of that year put Clinton ahead by 5 points. The biggest lead she ever carried over Trump in a 2016 CNN-ORC poll was 13 points in early May of that year.

Polls are not always predictive of final election results, only offering a barometer of public sentiment at a given moment in time, and the presidency is not decided by the popular vote, meaning that Trump could still win a second term even if Biden captures more votes overall, as Clinton did in 2016.

Still, a growing number of polls released in recent weeks suggest that Trump’s national support has waned as his administration grapples with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, economic turbulence and widespread protests over racial injustice and police brutality.

He's cooked.

In every instance in history where a populist dictator fell this is how it happens... slowly and then all at once.

You need to Mattis's and Romneys and Murkowskis to start defecting.

Then if becomes safe for others to defect.

And then no one wants to be on the wrong side of history.

He will fall.

And here’s ANOTHER poll that has Biden with a 12% lead.

Biden 53% vs. Trump 41%

Trump's running against the ghost of Hillary Clinton.

The point of his big Speech on Race is to solidify his white supporters ,especially enough of the Suburban White Women, née Soccer Moms, to keep the targeted swing states. The strategy is to give a couple sound bites that Betty from Berwyn PA can think, oh he's not that bad, I am still comfortable enough to vote for him.

Another comment on the current polls: yes, of course the election will get closer, but the strategy will be to suppress voters. Not just by making it more difficult, resisting mail-in voting, throwing voters off the roles - but making the election so noisy with anger and misinformation (many equivalents to "Hillary's emails" - "Joe's drug addicted son stealing $ in Ukraine" etc etc) that folks just want to tune out the dirty game.

Stay vigilant. Increase voter turnout. Don't be overly reactive to the noise, don't contribute to the noise... which the media will do. Trump wants to bloat up and be the sole focus of attention - hence the race speech.

[quote]but the strategy will be to suppress voters. Not just by making it more difficult, resisting mail-in voting, throwing voters off the roles - but making the election so noisy with anger and misinformation (many equivalents to "Hillary's emails" - "Joe's drug addicted son stealing $ in Ukraine" etc etc) that folks just want to tune out the dirty game.

Well, shouldn't we be coming up with strategies now to combat all of this?

Trump's his own worst enemy right now. Let him speak.

It won't work anymore R401

Trump is incapable of expressing empathy or of making anything about anyone other than himself.

Soccer moms won't be fooled again.

Hillary never hit 50%. Team Trump is definitely panicking. Their strategy of making this a base election is going to fail.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

Biden consistently hitting 50 while Hillary never did is huge. It means that even if undecided voters swing toward Trump, even if Trump wins all of them, it won't be enough to win the election.

[quote]Trump's his own worst enemy right now.

Not while I'm alive.

The election will be heading to the courts, maybe even all the way to the Supreme Court. Mark my words. It will be Trump’s play. If you think this is over on election night you haven’t been paying attention. With vote by mail being bigger this year, results will come slower. Trump will declare victory early in the night to muddy the waters and create a “stolen” narrative for his retarded followers. He won’t win a court battle, but he’ll succeed in causing as much chaos as he can. His lame duck period is going to the one of the darkest in American history. And if the GOP lose the senate? Buckle up. RBG must be given 24 hour secret service protection.

[quote]If you think this is over on election night you haven’t been paying attention.

It's over if he wins by the margin a 14-point lead implies. If he tried to contest that, people would laugh in his face.

Those who identify as Republican dropped five percentage points from Feb to May.

[quote]Never say never, but Joe isn’t positioning himself as a leader.

He is positioned as leader. His track record. He is not an unknown. That's the strength of his nomination, in spite of his weaknesses as a candidate.

He needs to do what he's doing... reinforce the polling with selected appearances. He's biding time out in the slow lane and it's working. Nothing they have thrown at him sticks and nothing they do helps them. The Biden strategy can't hold forever, but it is right for now.

Hmm, I wonder if this has helped boost Joe even more. Interesting,

“Joe Biden spent big on Facebook ads as Trump came under fire for George Floyd protest response

Starting last week, Biden spent over $4.9 million on Facebook ads. Trump’s campaign, which historically has often outspent the now presumptive Democratic nominee on the same platform, spent over $1.2 million.

Biden’s ad spend is more than Trump has ever spent on Facebook ads in a given week throughout the 2020 election cycle, the data shows.

Biden’s spending spree represents one of the clearest signals yet that his campaign senses that it has momentum against Trump and that it has the resources to compete with the president’s financial war chest.”

Re. Trump and a race speech

a) he will be unable to say enough because they won't risk the base

b) too little, too late whatever the content

c) he is incapable of delivering it with any authenticity... he won't mean it... he won't even understand it... if he sticks to the teleprompter he sounds even more fake. If he doesn't we'll get fine people on both sides. The only time he sounds authentic is when he's ranting race baits and every other deplorable notion in his heart and base.

The best thing Biden can do is continue to keep his mouth shut and do occasional appearances.

Let Dump continue to tweet and give as many racist and inflammatory speeches as he wants.

R410 first of all. Biden isn’t winning by 14 points. It’s June 8th. We have a lifetime until election night. Second, Trump is going to call the election rigged and he will take it to the courts. The past four years have shown us that republicans will stand by him no matter what. Maybe contesting the election is a step too far, but I’m not so sure. He will have party support. It’s going to get ugly. Hell, he said an election he WON was rigged. The man can’t handle losing. He will go kicking and screaming.

That is why we need a landslide victory!!

R416 I see what you're saying but I don't think the courts will be as loyal to Trump personally as you expect. Or the rethugs in congress.

Those judges have lifetime appointments. There's nothing else they can gain from Trump. Several of them, being highly educated, likely find him personally distasteful. They are loyal to the GOP, not Trump himself, whatever Trump thinks of them. And they will have more room to maneuver without their opinions being thought to bolster a historically unpopular, authoritarian president.

And if the GOP members in congress agree with Trump the election was rigged, that would imply the elections for house and Senate are rigged too. They would also need to file in court, each of them. Trump is willing to spend weeks telling the outrageous lies you'd need to make that case. I don't think the GOP generally will have the stomach for that. It's one thing to praise Trump and refuse to criticise him. It's another to actively join him in his authoritarian schemes as Mark Esper has recently learned.

[quote]Hell, he said an election he WON was rigged.

He was right about that.

Wait until Republicans start in on the dismantle police attack. Biden is going to sink like a stone. People I know in Minneapolis are already looking for homes outside the city limits.

Los Angeles police said they were unaware of the vandalism and there had been zero complaints reported.

[quote]Wait until Republicans start in on the dismantle police attack. Biden is going to sink like a stone.

Sure, Ivanka.

R420, no one would believe that Biden supports “defunding the police.”

Defunding police is a completely local issue. Only city residents have any say on what any city's budget is. The federal governments position doesn't mean squat. Places like NYC, Minneapolis, and LA will continue to make positive steps. Biden doesn't even need to talk about it because it has nothing to do with him

Leftists once again shooting themselves in the foot.

"Defunding" the the absolute stupidest term for what they are proposing.

it's really "Refocusing" the police.

So that if there's a homeless person sleeping on the sidewalk, send in a social worker, not a cop.

If there's a domestic disturbance and no one has a gun, send in a social worker, not a cop.

It's not about cutting money and then expecting them to do the same job for less pay and with fewer resources.

r425 - could you please change your name to YourMillennialUnfortunateAcquaintance?

YMF is right about the use of the word defunding. The good thing is Biden can alway say: "You know me. Do you think I want to do that? And you know Donald Trump. He tells lies about everything because he's scared. What I'm talking about here is... "

And that's the beauty of Biden... everybody does know him. People were using that against him in the early days (gaffes, touchy, etc. etc.) but now it's also a strength. And except for Warren and Bernie, all the other centrists candidates we either don't know or don't know well and that would allow the Rethuglicans to potentially frame them with Rethuglican lies. Biden is trickier in the respect. One of his 'come on, mans' and suddenly you're like oh, yeah, it is bullshit.

R426, YMF is spot on. Not only is he right about the terminology, he’s right about the implementation.

Yes and no, r428, homeless, domestic violence etc in NY takes many forms, a few of which include violent outbursts. Maybe a social worker and cops should answer the call. But if you're just sending a social worker then you're going to end up with a few dead social workers and a public wanting to know why the police did nothing.

R427 R428 Have you read the proposals made by the Dem Congressional Leadership this morning? Concrete proposals to work for - and aligned to the emerging zeitgeist. I think your cautiousness about the terminology is well taken, but also the time's really changing.

I note that the (Republicans') No Child Left Behind had language about "closing down underperforming schools" and restructuring new schools in their place. Very similar to "Defund the Police"..... We are in a new territory. Mitt Romney marched and said "Black Lives Matter"....

R430... I hope you're right. You probably are. I guess my concern is will all this passion be as widely shared through the autumn. I don't trust the country to stay this affected by what we've seen and that's when the division lines appear. This is America. It's angry, poor and disguises self interest as self reliance. So I'm happy to be wrong, but if I'm not, Biden can frame it successfully.

[quote] there's a domestic disturbance and no one has a gun,

[quote] domestic violence etc in NY takes many forms, a few of which include violent outbursts.

R432, really?

You don't need a gun to kill or hurt someone. Surprise!

[quote]domestic violence etc in NY takes many forms, a few of which include violent outbursts.

Many of these incidents involve mental illness and drug abuse. These situations could be better handled by paramedics or psychiatric nurses, etc... who could better de-escalate situations or use medications if needed, rather than cops with guns.

Honestly there's more evidence "Defund the Police" will help Biden than hurt him. Anyone remember "Abolish ICE"? The slogan that deplorables in congress and a few on this website promised us would stop Dems from taking back the house? The slogan the GOP spent millions telling voters voters about?

It helped Dems in 2018 because almost all the vulnerable ones refused outright to use the slogan, but DID move their immigration policy substantially to the left to satisfy activists.

Then the Dems could take very liberal policy stances while truthfully saying "I don't support abolishing ICE like those radicals". They came out of it looking more moderate than ever. The same thing will happen with this.

Ron Brownstein:

[quote]New @CNN poll adds to this list. Among college+ whites, 71% disapprove of Trump on race relations, 66% disapprove on his overall job & 63% say they will back Biden vs. him in November. As bad as 18 was for GOP in suburbs of big metros, on current trajectory 20 may be worse.

R434, I'm not saying a social worker isn't better equipped to handle certain situations, but I sure as hell wouldn't send one in without a cop, nor would I want respond to a situation like domestic violence without protection. Let the social worker handle the situation and the cops standby similar to what is done now with paramedics. You call for a paramedic and both the police and EMT show up.

As I said, after a few dead socials workers and people will be screaming that the cops don't do anything.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

I have retained highly respected pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, to analyze todays CNN Poll (and others), which I felt were FAKE based on the incredible enthusiasm we are receiving. Read analysis for yourself. This is the same thing they and others did when we defeated...

...Crooked Hillary Clinton in 2016. They are called SUPPRESSION POLLS, and are put out to dampen enthusiasm. Despite 3 ½ years of phony Witch Hunts, we are winning, and will close it out on November 3rd!

[quote] Despite 3 ½ years of phony Witch Hunts, we are winning, and will close it out on November 3rd!

Get the net.

Highly respected pollsters don't write memos like that, even when they find flaws in the research of others.

CNN had a segment today on how Trump might try to rush out an untested vaccine before the election as an October surprise. They interviewed one of the top infectious diseases doctors in the country who said that a properly tested vaccine would not be ready until 2021.

Leave it to Trump to possibly put millions of lives at risk with an untested vaccine just so he can get re-elected. Since so many of his supporter are anti-vax and believe the vaccine conspiracy theories surrounding Bill Gates, I'm not sure how this would play with them.

As Nathaniel Rakich (FiveThirtyEight) said today, the pollster that Trump has hired to attack the CNN poll is a low-rated pollster:

[quote]McLaughlin has a FiveThirtyEight Pollster Rating of C/D and is one of the lowest-rated polls in our database.

R376, R379: That kind of thinking is how Democrats hot blindsided by Trump in 2016. People are always less willing to admit they like a candidate in the midst of a scandal. That’s why Trump’s approval ratings dropped after the Access Hollywood tape, but he still won.

r443 I agree. Though Biden is polling higher than @45 than HRC did around same time in 2016, it's not the time to be complacent. Much chicanery on part of Repugs and exogenous shocks can occur b/w now and 11/3. I'm donating and volunteering not only for Biden, but also for down ballot candidates in other states.

Apparently that pollster told Eric Cantor he was going to win by 21 pts when he lost by 11. Now that's some bad polling.

This is why it will be hard for Trump to regain the ground he has lost. Instead talking about the economy or anything that might be useful to him, he's spending his time backing the police who nearly killed that 75 year old man in Buffalo. Yes his base will love him defending these cops who have been widely denounced and are now on trial. But everyone else will recoil at this

It gets better R446

The reporter on that OANN story is a Russian national who works for the Kremlin-owned Sputnik news service. He's produced numerous conspiracy theory pieces before.

Read the entire tweet thread

Not seeing that discussion, r447. Is that the correct link?

Try this R448

Or just go to @mattgertz on Twitter -- he's got a number of tweets about this both in that thread and outside of it.

Thanks, r449. That one worked for me.

Amy McGrath leading McConnell by 1pt in Kentucky poll.

Republicans will be dumping Trump soon.

Will they? They obviously decided in 2017 to go all in on supporting him. If they dump him now, will that even help them anymore?

R451 that is HUGE.

They have started to attack her on twitter.

R452 in 2017 he still had broader support than he does today. Mitch McConnell's seat in KENTUCKY is in trouble and it's a democrat and not a republican challenger. That's huge

[quote]I'm in Philly and haven't seen on Biden sign.

Oh my god, you're the Philadelphia Yard Sign Troll -- and you are posting links to the Daily Stormer on the Chris Cuomo nude thread! Fuck off, scumbag!

[quote]you are posting links to the Daily Stormer on the Chris Cuomo nude thread

That sounds like an interesting discussion

Here's a portal to donate to particular or all senatorial candidates. Gardner, McSally, Collins & Tillis are prob the most vulnerable.

[quote]Betty from Berwyn PA

Betty from Berwyn PA is most definitely voting for Joe Biden of Scranton, so Trump can kiss her vote goodbye anyway.

R457 Thank you! I hope all of us on social media complaining about the absurdity of this crazy man leading this craven party in power... know that we need to do more than post on social media. An election unlike any in our lifetime... we need to step up and make a difference. (Although given a lot, I now get multiple texts and emails every fucking hour asking for more $... a small price to pay for liberty).

There was some worry about Pennsylvania earlier upthread and the claim that Biden was behind Trump by 100,000 votes.

With absentee ballots counted (and still being counted) Biden is now ahead of Trumps vote total by 60,000 votes. It's explained in the tweet thread below

A new Iowa poll has Joni Ernst losing, and Biden tied with Trump.

I know the focus has been on 4 vulnerable republican senators. But the recent polls from Iowa, Georgia and Montana have been consistently favourable for Dems. And republicans are starting to worry about Alabama now as Doug Jones doing well in latest polls too.

[quote]A new Iowa poll has Joni Ernst losing,

Now, we're talking!

This is interesting and very telling too, if accurate.

By land, sea, air, Trump supporters vow massive statewide rally Sunday

-Frustrated by what they say is inaction by Republican Party of Florida, so-called “Trumplicans” say they plan to celebrate Flag Day and President Donald Trump’s birthday Sunday with large rallies across the state.

-Organized by Trump Team 2020 Florida — an organization that lists more than 20 chapters and about 10,000 members statewide — the events are part of a larger effort to register voters to support the president’s re-election bid this November. It is something the group said the Florida Republican Party is not doing enough of.

-Delgado founded Trump Team 2020 Florida out of frustration that the state GOP officials were not doing enough to get out the vote, she said. In fact, she is so disillusioned with the state party, she and her followers do not even call themselves Republicans, preferring instead the term “Trumplican.”

[quote]Apparently that pollster told Eric Cantor he was going to win by 21 pts when he lost by 11. Now that's some bad polling.

Yes, McLaughlin has a lousy reputation. It is one of the lowest-rated pollsters at FiveThirtyEight.

One of the worst pollsters for the 2018 elections, too.

"Trumplican" I just died a little more inside.

R464, that’s just fine with me. The more they fracture the Republican Party, the better.

[quote]. In fact, she is so disillusioned with the state party, she and her followers do not even call themselves Republicans, preferring instead the term “Trumplican.”

How proud they must be of themselves.

“Trumplican“ sounds like an alien species from the original Star Trek

“Trumplican“ sounds like an alien species

"Trumplicker" is more accurate.

Trumplican sounds like a vegetable.

[quote]Betty from Berwyn PA is most definitely voting for Joe Biden of Scranton, so Trump can kiss her vote goodbye anyway.

I love it when gays pretend that they know the "Karens" of this country so well.

Biden up by 15 in Michigan

Source R474?

As Biden called Obama Clean and articulate LMAO

R476 Tiresome retread of old stuff. Must be a bot.

I have r476 blocked. Same person in a few threads tonight. Must be lonely! 🤣🤣🤣

WE MUST NOT BECOME COMPLACENT!

A world away from Washington, loyal supporters stand by the President in Trump country

By Jeff Zeleny and Caroline Kenny, CNN

Updated 9:07 PM ET, Tue June 9, 2020

Jacksonville, Florida (CNN)Some of President Donald Trump's loyal supporters are becoming well-practiced in the art of forgiveness, saying they are drawn to his record and willing to overlook his rhetoric.

"I think his personality is hard to deal with, his way of handling people is difficult," said Karen Deeter, a Florida retiree who moved here from Illinois. "He's not a politician, but he's gotten some things done."

After one of the most controversial weeks of his presidency, as the nation navigates the interwoven crisis of racial injustice, a crippled economy and a still-flaring pandemic, signs of his reelection are blossoming in Trump country, which more than ever these days feels like a world away from Washington. Trump faces significant headwinds, polls suggest, as his advisers scramble to adapt to the challenging political climate.

As the President eyes a return to the campaign trail, chomping at the bit to resume the rallies that defined his first bid for office and much of the last three years, the Trump army is also mobilizing for November to help him win another four years in the White House.

To avoid becoming a one-term President, his advisers concede he must keep voters like Deeter on his side.

She dislikes his tweets, bluntly declaring: "I wish that would stop." She isn't fond of his name-calling or a tone that can be mean-spirited. But Deeter voted for Trump four years ago and -- for now, at least -- said she plans to do so again.

"It's not to the point of hold your nose and do it, but I think there are reservations," Deeter said in an interview as she gathered her morning mail this week at a Post Office in nearby Ponte Vedra Beach. "I feel like he needs to, I don't know, maybe tone down his rhetoric?"

When asked whether she believed Trump would do so, she added: "No, he's not that personality. But I look more at his policies and results and go at it that way."

In conversations this week across Jacksonville and neighboring conservative communities, Trump's supporters were resolute in their belief that he would win a second term. They, in fact, are more confident than some of his own advisers, who acknowledge a tough fight ahead.

It's not that Trump supporters aren't watching events unfold across the country; they simply view them through a different lens than many Americans. Take, for example, the photo-op outside St. John's Episcopal Church last week near the White House as authorities cleared peaceful demonstrators from Lafayette Park.

"I thought he was displaying his support for the Christian church," said Beverly Slough, a member of the school board in St. Johns County. "I thought it was very, very brave to walk there."

She praised the Trump administration's economic record and she did not blame the President for the soaring unemployment in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. She said her only advice for the President would be to think twice before sending incendiary tweets.

"I think that it's valuable that he takes to Twitter because that's how he gets his message out," Slough said. "But I think that maybe, sometimes maybe, he ought to take a breath or two before he presses send. That's all."

Yet even as several voters expressed displeasure at some of his remarks, in the next breath many declared their intent without hesitation to vote for him. "He's going to say what's on his mind and to me, I appreciate his tweets," Courtney Fernandez, a volunteer for the Trump campaign here in Duval County. "Sometimes you look at him and go, 'OK, that may have been crossing the line,' but he means well, he loves our country."

For the next four months, Fernandez said, she intends to motivate and persuade voters with one chief goal in mind: "Letting women know that it's OK to following Donald Trump, President Trump. It's OK!"

Steve Adams, a retired Naval aviator, said he believes Trump's most important legacy is building a conservative federal bench. That alone, he said, warrants a second term.

"For me, specifically, it's the judiciary," Adams said when asked why he supports the President. "Appointing conservative justices -- more importantly justices that will apply the Constitution and not try to change it through judicial activism. I'm very happy to see that he's been very successful with the Republican Senate in getting justices appointed."

A week after former Defense Secretary James Mattis declared that Trump is the first president of his lifetime who "tries to divide us," several voters here said they were unmoved by the criticism from Mattis or Colin Powell, the former Republican Secretary of State and decorated military leader who said Trump has "drifted away" from the Constitution.

Bob Dickson, a Navy veteran and lifelong Jacksonville resident who invests several hours each week here registering Republicans to vote, said, "Everyone has their own opinion."

"Mattis has his opinion, Powell has his," Dickson said. "But there are so many, many Republican leaders who are solidly behind the President that he's going to continue to have a large base of support."

The question, of course, is whether that base is enough to win, with one poll after another showing an erosion for Trump among independents and women.

Dean Black, chairman of the Duval County Republican Party, said he doesn't believe the polls this year any more than he did four years ago, most of which showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump. He said the President's law and order message, which he demonstrated last week, would draw voters to the Republican ticket.

"No, I don't think independent voters are going to be turned off in a way that's damaging to President Trump and the Republican Party," Black said. "To the contrary, I think they will be turned off in a way that shows them the Democrat Party has been hijacked by radicals and should not be trusted with power."

In 2016, Trump carried Duval County, which includes all of Jacksonville, by slightly more than 1 percentage point -- and neighboring St. Johns County by more than 30 points. It's that combination he'll need to win Florida again as he seeks to build a path to 270 electoral votes.

Jacksonville is among several cities being considered by the Trump campaign for the Republican convention in August. Black said hosting the convention would energize GOP voters across Florida and help the President's chances in November.

"This is Trump country here. This is the single best city in America, in which to host the Republican National Convention, and for several reasons," Black said. "It's a battleground county in a battleground state, in a city where you have unified Republican governance."

Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, a Republican, was heckled with chants of "No RNC! No RNC!" on Tuesday as he marched with peaceful protestors after he announced the removal of a Confederate statue overnight across from City Hall.

He declined to say whether the President's rhetoric made his job easier or more difficult.

"I have no problem doing my job. I signed up for this," Curry told CNN.

Asked whether he believed Trump would carry Duval County, he said: "I don't want to talk about politics today."

I can’t believe it’s June and they’re still dithering about the location of the convention. When will Dump decide—July 31st? It’s going to be such a giant mess. I can’t wait!

This story is annoying g. It started out as a premise and the reporter sought out sources that would confirm it. It’s all anecdotal, not based in facts at all.

Here's the new poll referenced by R474. It's not by a well-known pollster, but it's pretty close to the recent EPIC-MRA poll.

**MICHIGAN**

Kiaer Research

Biden (50%)

Trump (35%)

He was stupid to pick on Michigan because he will probably lose it now. PA and Michigan move to the left.

It will be up to Arizona and North Carolina bring it home.

From the New York Times today:

*Biden's Lead, by Demographic Group*

Why does the media continue to write about and report on Trump voters? What are they expecting to discover that we haven’t already known since 2016?

Trump voters really aren’t that difficult to figure out and there is absolutely nothing more that we can learn from them.

R485 I think, as much as it's inconvenient, Trump voters are not one single thing. They are all comfortable with a racist, autocrat... but their motivations for supporting him may differ. Elon Musk and Bubba Fentanyl from West Virginia have different needs that Trump fulfills

So, Trump does best with less educated white men. I'm not at all surprised.

[quote]So, Trump does best with less educated white men.

I guess this would include all graduates of Trump University.

trumptards are saying dems want to do away with the police and take their guns. An idiot relative just posted that on Facebook. He's a dumb loser anyway but the idiot lives of SS Disability. Too ignorant to know trump would like to pull the rug out while dems would support him. Told him so (politely) in a reply. He's made stupid choices his entire life and is now living with the consequences. And he thinks republicans will help him. Good luck with that.

I almost want for Biden to win just by picking up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona, just for the people of Ohio and Florida to get thrown from their high horse of always being on the side of the winners.

New from the Lincoln Project

I'm genuinely embarrassed Biden isn't doing better among whites. So many of us really need to give our heads a shake.

The gap between college educated whites and non-college educated whites tells you everything you need to know about Trump's appeal.

In midcentury America, there was not a wide gap between these two groups in income and lifestyle and they felt the future was bright.

But now they feel they've been left behind and that they're being lumped in with minorities and immigrants as the vast lower classes, shut out from all the privilege the top 20% gets. You can even see that in the resegregation of the suburbs along class lines--there are the burbs with good schools where the 20% pay close to $1M for a small house just to be in that town and then the places the 80% live -- suburbia used to be much more economically diverse, even towns like Greenwich, CT had more middle class/blue collar sections.

And thus they look to Trump.

That gap is very slowly but closing though as the Trump-friendly pollster Gallup publishes today:

Trump drop approval rating plunges 10 points in a month: Gallup Gallup found that 39 percent of Americans now approve of the job Trump is doing, a steep drop from the president’s personal high of 49 percent achieved in May.

Trump’s job approval rating is down 7 points among Republicans to 85 percent, the lowest point for the president within his own party in almost two years. Trump is also down 7 points among independents to 39 percent. Only 5 percent of Democrats approve of the job Trump is doing. It also found that 47 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, down from 63 percent in January. The president has only been under the 50 percent mark on the economy at one point, in November of 2017.

Forty-two percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 50 percent in April. Can't post the link.

[quote]Only 5 percent of Democrats approve of the job Trump is doing.

Names. I want names.

So how is the gap closing R494?

Or do you mean the gap between college-educated and non-college educated White People?

Re: 494 - I'll bet that's because of their moms/wives/daughters who are either convincing them or berating them into 'seeing the light'. Straight, white guys already think they know more and better than everyone else. A few newscasters (even on ESPN) or celebrities aren't going to sway their opinions. They'd need someone to repetitively, patiently and in small words, explain to them Dump is a total p.o.s. and how it wouldn't be the end of America to vote for Biden, just this once.

Biden needs to acknowledge the working class white issue head on. Dems have ignored them and their grievances for too long. I know a lot of them are racists but at least we can bump that up a few percentage points. Biden is the man to do it.

R492 I think we forget that the Democratic candidate hasn't won a majority of white voters since Lyndon Johnson.

[quote]Dems have ignored them and their grievances for too long.

I am hard pressed to think of one republican't initiative that has actually had any existential benefit for white working-class males.

Or, for that matter, anyone else except the very, very rich.

R499, I think we forget that 2004 was the only time in the last 32 years that a Republican won the popular vote.

I don't mean this to sound racist, but the white working class and white suburban Moms keep letting us down. When are democrats going to stop being Lucy, Charlie Brown, and the football with those two groups. Either they are on board on not.

[quote] the white working class and white suburban Moms

They are referred to as racist dumb dumbs and Karens on this board, get with the times.

I'll pay more attention when the polls are more about likely voters and the analysis takes into account what sorts of voter suppression and so on has been happening in a given state.

Why can’t you pay attention now, R504?

[quote] [R485] I think, as much as it's inconvenient, Trump voters are not one single thing. They are all comfortable with a racist, autocrat... but their motivations for supporting him may differ. Elon Musk and Bubba Fentanyl from West Virginia have different needs that Trump fulfills

The white supremacist motivation is very much all the same.

[quote] Biden needs to acknowledge the working class white issue head on. Dems have ignored them and their grievances for too long. I know a lot of them are racists but at least we can bump that up a few percentage points. Biden is the man to do it.

Democrats have not ignored the white working class. The white working class has ignored itself and its own needs and continued to vote for Republican policies that don’t benefit them. The majority of country (which = middle class & poor) benefit from Democratic policies. And whites benefit more from those policies (like everything else in this country) more than nonwhites.

Working class whites vote their prejudices, instead of their needs. Democrats continues to chase after them and they are not coming back. Endless articles have been written about them and they take center stage during each election. Yet we’re still hearing this nonsense about them being ignored.

[quote]The white supremacist motivation is very much all the same.

Which is just another reason for Democrats to not only recapture the White House but gain control of the Senate too. Do you think that the voting debacle that happened in Georgia was an accident? Where was Stacy Abrams? Wasn't her group supposed to stop this? What good is it for the Republican Secretary to open an investigation? The voting day is over! Mission accomplished!

If we are successful in capturing all 3 branches of government we need a 100 day requirement list that Democrats MUST get done if they want to remain in power.

I guess he needed the headline;

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading

By Veronica Stracqualursi and Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 5:02 PM ET, Wed June 10, 2020

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker that contained numerous incorrect and misleading claims, was immediately rejected by the network.

"We stand by our poll," said Matt Dornic, a CNN spokesman.

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released on Monday shows Trump trailing the former vice president by 14 points, 55%-41%, among registered voters. It also finds the President's approval rating at 38% -- his worst mark since January 2019, and roughly on par with approval ratings for one-term Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years -- and his disapproval rating at 57%.

In the letter to Zucker, the Trump campaign argued that the CNN poll is "designed to mislead American voters through a biased questionnaire and skewed sampling."

"It's a stunt and a phony poll to cause voter suppression, stifle momentum and enthusiasm for the President, and present a false view generally of the actual support across America for the President," read the letter, signed by the Trump campaign's senior legal adviser Jenna Ellis and chief operating officer Michael Glassner.

The campaign formally requested that CNN retract the poll and publish a "full, fair, and conspicuous retraction, apology, and clarification to correct its misleading conclusions."

David Vigilante, CNN's executive vice president and general counsel, told the campaign that its "allegations and demands are rejected in their entirety."

"To my knowledge, this is the first time in its 40-year history that CNN had been threatened with legal action because an American politician or campaign did not like CNN's polling results," Vigilante wrote in his response. "To the extent we have received legal threats from political leaders in the past, they have typically come from countries like Venezuela or other regimes where there is little or no respect for a free and independent media."

After CNN released the poll earlier this week, Trump tweeted that he had hired Republican pollster McLaughlin & Associates to "analyze" the survey and others "which I felt were FAKE based on the incredible enthusiasm we are receiving." McLaughlin ranks as one of the least accurate pollsters in the industry, as measured by FiveThirtyEight.

But several other polls released over the past few weeks -- including polls by ABC News/Washington Post, Monmouth University, NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac University and Fox News -- also show Biden well ahead of Trump. These polls, averaged with the CNN poll, find Biden up by double digits, a result well outside any margin of error.

Misleading claims

The campaign's letter, which heavily cites findings by McLaughlin, makes several incorrect and misleading claims. "It's a poll of 1,259 adults -- not even registered voters, let alone likely voters," the letter says, citing a McLaughlin memo from earlier this week.

While it's accurate that 1,259 adults were reached on landlines or cell phones by a live interviewer for the survey, the 14-point margin by which Trump is trailing Biden came from a question posed only to 1,125 registered voters. It's typical for polling to sample registered voters rather than likely ones at this stage of the race, as it's difficult to project whether voters will participate in an election that is five months away. CNN, as do most public pollsters, typically reports results from likely voters around Labor Day.

It should be noted that in CNN's poll, Biden expands his lead among those who are most (i.e. extremely) enthusiastic to vote.

2

McLaughlin says CNN's survey is a "skewed anti-Trump poll of only 25% Republican." That percentage of respondents, however, is consistent with several other major polls that use live telephone interviews, which provide the most reliable snapshot of the race. McLaughlin this week argued that pollsters should include a third of Republicans in surveys to reflect the 33% that they represented in the 2016 vote, but exit polls nearly always have higher shares of partisans and lower shares of independents than pre-election phone polls.

Among the entire sample, 32% identified themselves in CNN's poll as Democrats, 25% identified themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or belonging to another party. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. It is 3.6 points among registered voters.

The letter to Zucker also includes McLaughlin's criticism that the poll, conducted between June 2 and 5, was taken "before the great economic news," an improvement in the jobless rate that was released on Friday, even though the poll was still being conducted throughout that day.

And the survey comes amid an especially turbulent time in Trump's presidency, including the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, outrage and concern over race relations in the wake of George Floyd's killing at the hands of police officers, and the US officially entering a recession.

McLaughlin has also argued that the poll unfairly includes "questions on issues including race relations, not job creation, which could have biased the poll further," though CNN's survey does ask registered voters who would better handle the economy (Trump leads 51% to Biden's 46%) and was conducted at the height of the Floyd protests.

Trump has regularly chafed at polls that do not reflect favorably on him while promoting ones that do. Last month, Trump bashed Fox News, a network he often touts and gives interviews to, for a telephone-conducted poll that showed him behind Biden by 8 points, and instead pointed to a CNN poll released earlier in the month where he was leading Biden in battleground states. That CNN poll, however, showed Biden had a 5-point lead over Trump among registered voters nationwide.

"Why doesn't @FoxNews put up the CNBC POLL or the (believe it or not!) @CNN Poll? Hope Roger A is looking down and watching what has happened to this once beautiful creation!" Trump tweeted at the time, referring to the late Fox News founder Roger Ailes. Trump has also credited CNN's polling when it has suited him, as he did in December 2015 when he thanked several on-air reporters for their "very professional reporting of the new CNN Poll" that showed him ahead in the Iowa caucuses.

This story has been updated to include additional response from CNN.

In response to the above;

Jenna Ellis@JennaEllisEsq·(Now)

.@CNN “reported” on our letter sent privately without linking to the full letter, then tweeted their response. Another attempt to skew the narrative! Here is the @TeamTrump letter we sent yesterday, out of actual transparency.

Jenna Ellis@JennaEllisEsq·(Now)

[quote] Where was Stacy Abrams? Wasn't her group supposed to stop this? What good is it for the Republican Secretary to open an investigation? The voting day is over! Mission accomplished!

Abram and "Fair Fight" are doing their part. However, its obviously going to take more than one woman and one organization to stop Republican voter suppression in the Republican led state of Georgia.

Ahem....

Dan Rather@DanRather

So. Let's set the stage...

President Trump has chosen as the venue for his first rally in months, Tulsa, Oklahoma, site of a horrific massacre of African Americans. And he has set the date for June 19th, Juneteenth, a celebration of the end of slavery in the United States.

FYI: The Tulsa race massacre (also called the Tulsa race riot, the Greenwood Massacre, or the Black Wall Street Massacre) of 1921 took place on May 31 and June 1, 1921, when mobs of white residents attacked black residents and businesses of the Greenwood District in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It has been called "the single worst incident of racial violence in American history." The attack, carried out on the ground and from private aircraft, destroyed more than 35 square blocks of the district—at that time the wealthiest black community in the United States, known as "Black Wall Street".

Harry Enten:

[quote]Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad.

R514 talk about tone deaf. What the fuck is wrong with these people??

I don't think it's tone deaf, I think it's on purpose.

Not tone-deaf, just a dog whistle (except audible to most people) to his (dwindling) racist base. In any case it worked for Reagan—he won Mississippi basically on the strength of his "states' rights" speech in Philadelphia, MS (site of murders of civil rights activists).

I bet there is not one person in the Trump campaign who even knew about the Tulsa massacre or Juneteenth.

Stephen Miller would know. It was probably his idea.

About Biden, today he said he was sure the military would get Trump out of the WH if he won’t leave. Did you ever imagine a time when a candidate would have to say that?

I agree with Biden on that. Trump hasn't done much to make them loyal to him over country. If anything, Trump has a long list of things that really annoyed the Average Joe serving.

I think it's interesting the Joint Chief issued his apology for appearing with Trump in the photo op - stressing that military must not be politicized, and within hours Biden tweets that the military will remove Trump is he refuses to go.

I would put good money on the possibility that the military has begun to develop contingency plans for when/if Trump loses and, without cause, claims the election is rigged and refuses to go. The JC's statement could be a shot across the bow... so to speak.

^ I heard on Rachel tonight (or something MSNBC) that the Joint Chiefs of Staff (or some ad hoc committee of it) is definitely planning for various scenarios should they happen. The guy would not directly answer the question if they would remove Trump if need be but stated that various scenarios are indeed being discussed.

Lincoln Project goes for the jugular. Democrats still struggle with that. Republicans, including Never Trumpers, just never struggle with that. They know Americans aren't noble and wise, but Democrats still have that weird little voice telling them we are. They should stop listening to that little voice.

They don't even have to fight fire with fire. The Republicans are ugly neanderthals. Democrats can be tough just by being blunt. They don't have to resort to Republican thuggery. It's actually one of the good things about Biden. He's tough about them quite plainly. No poetry, no reticence. Even he could get tougher but he's not bad compared to most.

James Carville said on Lawrence O'Donnell's show tonight that he believes the military is poised to remove trump if trump refuses to go. He said they don't want to put up with that guy one more day then they have to" and that all branches of military leadership is on board. They will go in and take him out. I wanted to cry that made me so happy.

The military’s not gonna do shit. The Secret Service are the ones in charge of protecting the White House and they’ll be escorting Trump off the premises if he refuses to leave.

Which is an ad in and of itself--the fact that we are having the conversation about whether the military or Secret Service will be the ones to arrest Trump if he refuses to acknowledge the election results.

Secret Service? Oh, you mean the SS!

Good ad.

It's not bad R530 but doesn't have the impact that the Lincoln Project ads have. Maybe it takes a Republican to take down a Republican.

Meidas Touch also puts out good ads.

I think that's a lousy ad, but the4y're fighting at least so that's a good thing.

I don't think Trump is seen ask weak or fearful, though he is both those things.

His Achilles' heel is his indifference, his racism, his lack of intelligence, his concern only for himself. The visuals were great but I feel like they attacked the wrong character flaws. The message is: Donald Trump doesn't give a damn about you.

On the flip side it is possible at this point there was an audience of one for that ad: Trump himself. They may be trying to psych him out.

60% of the country sees Dump for who he is. An incompetent, lazy, fat grifter

[quote]The guy would not directly answer the question if they would remove Trump if need be but stated that various scenarios are indeed being discussed.

Of course they would. He would no longer be the president and would be escorted out just like any other trespassing private citizen.

Although I do think this talk is ridiculous and he isn’t going to refuse to leave.

He's going to walk out of the WH with the dazed, deflated look he had after his secret meeting with the gloating Putin.

As Harry Enten says today, Biden has about a 30-point lead on Trump with suburban women:

[quote]CNN's last poll found that among suburban women Joe Biden had 63% to Donald Trump's 34%

[quote]Last month, Fox News had Biden 57% to Trump's 29% among suburban women... so a consistent ~30 pt or so edge for Biden among them.

Now this is a kick in the nuts. A kick so hard I felt it my own nuts. Fucking ouch.

Trying YouTube

The Des Moines Register/Selzer Poll will be releasing its new Iowa numbers on Saturday at 6 pm.

The Senate numbers will be released first on Saturday, with the Biden vs. Trump numbers to come in the days after:

R492 he’s doing incredibly well with white people. About as well as a dem can do these days. Blowing Hillary out of the water. It’s making up for his poor numbers with Latinos.

Where are Tom steyer and Bloomberg? I’m sure they could pony up some money to fair fight. Assholes. Abolish billionaires.

Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post wrote an excellent column this week, "Trump might go down in history as the last president of the Confederacy."

Harry Enten:

[quote]Biden is winning women voters by a historic margin. He's ahead by 25 pts in latest average of live interview polls, more than prez nominee has won them by since at least 1952. The gender gap at 31 pts (Biden trails with men by 6) would also be largest ever

Yeah, as usual we are going to have to depend on women, especially minority women, to bring some sanity back.

I am not a self-hating men, I like us, but overall, in the past few centuries, we do tend to favor the asshole over the actually useful person.

The black woman will save us once again.

which is a lot to ask, again, r546. but yeah, that might be exactly what is needed here.

Joni Ernst is trailing in her Senate race!

Pardon the vernacular but the Republicans are fucked.

it does look at that way r548. never get complacent, never forget 2016, but still ... maybe have a little hope here, cause it is justified.

5 months is a very long time.

yup, got that r550. nothing guaranteed at all. just a little hopeful lately.

Yeah, hope and energy to work hard. I just hate people saying stuff like r548, which essentially pronounced that Republicans are in trouble. Well, trouble in mid June is not determinative of the outcome November. I also hate those stupid prognosticators already saying stuff Biden is 80% likely to win. Just stop

I am fine with all of that r522. Everyone who is feeling uplift, good, but never forget 2016. We all thought Hillary would win, then she didn't. So yeah, keep your eyes on the prize, and everybody vote. Absolutely, get your ass out there, one way or another. Don't relax. That much is true. (Still like the hope.)

We all thought Hillary would win? Speak for yourself. I never had any sort of confidence in a Clinton victory. I’m much more confident that Joe will win, just as I’m sure he would’ve won in 2016.

fine, well hope so, r554.

[quote]Biden needs to acknowledge the working class white issue head on. Dems have ignored them and their grievances for too long.

Stop. Just stop.

GOP policies decimate the WWC always and everywhere they can. Kentucky, anyone? Only a sad Berner or gay Republican thinks otherwise. Are you either, or both?

Lol

yup, r556 is totally okay and a lot of this is bullshit. But I am totally comfortable with Joe Biden pointing out LOUDLY that tax cuts for rich fucks does absolutely nothing for the average American.

[quote] We all thought Hillary would win

The Eldergay Hillary Stans on DL who saw her as a diva did.

But I will guarantee you that Oprah is not going to tell her audience "I know you can't stand Joe Biden, but this election is important, so just hold your nose and vote for Joe"

You know, the way she did with Hillary

oh come on, r559, EVERYONE thought Hillary would win. don't play games with us,. what do you want?

Definitely not everyone. After Labor Day and Hillary’s tainting, I noticed just how close Trump kept it in the polls. Like Hillary, I kept wondering, why isn’t Hillary leading by 20 points? And I fretted about how light and unexciting her campaigning was, compared to Trump’s daily raucous huge rallies in every swing state. It felt like she was arrogant and presumptuous, and swing state voters felt the same way. And then After Comey, ABC’s polling went from Hillary being eight points ahead to being one point ahead on the eve of the election. The late polls showed movement toward Trump. And all those undecideds were just hidden Trump voters

Michael moore said she would lose

[quote]Michael moore said she would lose

Yes, and he devoted himself 24 hours a day to making that happen!

Michael Moore also said a thousand times Bernie would win this year!

His rage and insane antics lately reflect how rattled his massive ego is that he somehow was powerless to make that happen!

Datalounge is not a place to question Hillary Clinton

Her Stans will stay up all night writing lengthy paeans to her candidacy.

Let's just say Biden has none of the negatives that severely misguided people who were brainwashed by the right wing media incorrectly attributed to her.

Kamala is the new a Hillary around here.

R548, Part 2 of the Des Moines Register poll is expected to be released in the next few days, and it will have the Biden vs Trump numbers for Iowa.

And given the good Dem numbers in the Iowa Senate race, there's a strong chance that the poll will also show good Iowa numbers for Biden.

[quote]I just hate people saying stuff like [R548], which essentially pronounced that Republicans are in trouble.

That was me. Of course they're in trouble! If Joni Ernst - who has no scandals, is perfectly competent, from a state that's been trending red - is trailing in her race, that's a huge red flag for the entire Republican party. She's the incumbent! How many people in Iowa have even heard of Theresa Greenfield (she's a real estate developer, not a politician) - and yet she's slightly in the lead, with five months to go!

And how many other Republican Senate candidates are in terrible shape? Even Mitch McConnell! All of them are polling below expectations. That means people aren't just turning against individual Republican candidates - they're turning against the party.

[quote]If Joni Ernst - who has no scandals, is perfectly competent...

Joni Ernst is perfectly competent...as far as brain-dead Republicans go...you left that off!

And, they talk about Biden...

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

The ramp that I descended after my West Point Commencement speech was very long & steep, had no handrail and, most importantly, was very slippery. The last thing I was going to do is “fall” for the Fake News to have fun with. Final ten feet I ran down to level ground. Momentum!

Ahem...

^^ Could you imagine the response if Joe Biden was the one displaying such frailty? It would’ve been breaking news on every cable station. Twitter and the rest of the internet would collapse as BernieBro leftists and Deplorables jointly exploded in an orgasmic tizzy with an unprecedented onslaught of jubilant posts about the near-death Joe Biden and his potential replacements at the convention.

With all the voting issues in GA last week Den turnout was still huge!

According to a new poll, Trump leads Biden in Arkansas by 2 points!

In 2016, Trump won Arkansas by 60 points.

I don't know about anyone else but I can see that the right are escalating their email blitzes. I know this because months ago someone must have signed me up for a Breitbart distribution--I most certainly didn't do it. Anyway, I never unsubscribed or opened any of the emails. Usually, I received 1-2/day. Now... either Breibart has sold their distribution or is working with other right-wing groups. As of this moment, I have received 10 emails from different (what appears) right-wing outlets. I started noticing an increasing of these type of emails maybe about 2 weeks ago.

R575, they’re increasingly desperate. Everyone can see what is coming for the GOP this fall. People will start “socially distancing” themselves from Trump.

RCP‘s national average has Biden up by 8 points.

According to this, Biden is up:

WI - by 4 points

FL - by 3.4 points

MI - by 7.3 points

PA - by 3.3 points

AZ - by 3.4 points

MN - by 5 points

Trump’s low approval unlikely to move.

And approval ratings most closely indicate a President’s re-election chances.

New Missouri poll has Trump ahead by 8. What's remarkable is that Trump won Missouri by 18.

Good one R576

I 100% plan to steal that.

I do think the media is leaning into the optimistic polls for Biden a little early. Biden’s spent most of the quarantine hiding in the basement. At some point he’s going to have to start talking again and, well, we’ll see what those poll numbers look like. It’s easy for Biden to poll well against Trump since Trump has had one issue after another to deal with. But I don’t think he’s going to wait Trump out another six weeks.

The election is five friggin months away. Why so much energy about polls in June?

Thanks for playing Trumptard R58. Joe's been out at the protests, given speeches and have done several online town halls. You're guy can't drink a glass of waters and is has problems with ramps.

[quote]Biden’s spent most of the quarantine hiding in the basement.

This is even more laughably false than the usual Republican talking point.

Harry Enten:

Democratic nominees for Senate/president have been outperforming Clinton's margin by an average of 10 pts in (mostly swing) state phone polls since protests began. This implies a double-digit Biden national lead & a Dem lead in race for Senate control.

About that CNN 14 point Biden lead poll...

This was good.

Trump attorney Jenna Ellis CNN interview part 1

Trump attorney Jenna Ellis CNN interview part 2

Ahem....

Joe Biden

Polls won't change much over summer. People don't pay that much attention. Dump's approval rating won't change all that much. Then we have September and October two months with the pandemic still raging, and spiking in certain areas.

Aside from being delusional this is scary

‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection

Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

By DAVID SIDERS

06/15/2020 04:30 AM EDT

By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated.

But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally different view.

Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”

(MORE)

I wonder if autocorrect changed the link at R590 to David Siders from David Sedaris?

R590, they have to say this stuff if they’re speaking on the record. Off the record is a different story.

Trump might win re-election, but anyone who thinks it will be in a landslide is indeed delusional.

Again re: R590, if you read about the Germans in the spring of 1945 with the Russians outside of Berlin and the US and Brits already across the Rhine, many of them truly believed that Hitler would still be able to pull off a victory of some sort.

So GOP being delusional about Trump is not surprising.

R590 R594 So many Americans were disastrously hoodwinked. We'll need to be very gentle with our fellow citizens as we nurse them back to mental health.

Arkansas has Trump up 2 in new poll. Significant because Trump won Arkansas by 26.

In the event this thread fills and closes, we can continue discussing Joe Biden’s march toward victory here:

Iowa Poll: Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 1 point in tight contest for president

Brianne Pfannenstiel Des Moines Register

Four years after Republican Donald Trump decisively won Iowa and the presidency, the state appears to be a toss-up as he seeks re-election this November, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Trump carried Iowa by 9 percentage points in his 2016 contest against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But today, the Register’s Iowa Poll shows the president leading former Vice President Joe Biden by just 1 point — 44% to 43%.

The poll of 674 likely voters was conducted June 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The results — which come in the midst of a pandemic and widespread civil unrest — are among a wave of polling that indicates an increasingly unstable electoral map for the president. States like Iowa that were expected to be safe territory for him after clear wins in 2016 now appear to be battlegrounds in 2020.

“I think it's obviously nothing that Joe Biden should take for granted, because he's not leading,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer. “But if the election were held today, Biden has a far better shot than anybody thought.”

The president’s re-election campaign booked more than $400,000 worth of television advertising in Iowa from early May to early June, according to the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics. During that same time frame, the Lincoln Project, which is airing ads against the president, booked about $150,000 worth of television time.

The president's Cabinet has also spent considerable time in Iowa. Last month, Vice President Mike Pence visited Des Moines and Urbandale to meet with religious and agricultural leaders. Pence will return to Iowa on Tuesday, and Department of Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette will be in Ames on Wednesday.

Trump’s approval rating falls

A March Iowa Poll showed 41% of likely Iowa voters would support Biden in a general election against the president, and 51% said they would support Trump.

In the months since, Biden has become the Democratic Party’s de facto nominee — a title Democrats will formalize at a convention scheduled for August — allowing the party to begin to coalesce around him. The president, though, has faced consistent criticism for his management of the coronavirus pandemic and for his handling of protests surrounding the death of George Floyd, a Black resident of Minneapolis, at the hands of white police officers.

The president’s job approval rating has also fallen in that time. In March, his approval rating was above water for the first time in a Register poll, with 50% of Iowans saying they approved of the job he was doing as president. At the time, 46% of Iowans said the country was on the right track — another high-water mark for Trump’s presidency, and the highest that number had been recorded since May 2003.

But both measures have fallen substantially, the new poll shows.

Today, just 22% of Iowans say the nation is on the right track. Another 63% say the nation is on the wrong track, including a plurality of Republicans (45%). It’s rare for members of a political party to break with a sitting president of the same party, Selzer said.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen 5 percentage points from March to 45% today. Now, a majority of Iowans — 52% — disapprove of the job he’s doing.

That ratings dip coincides with disapproval of the president’s handling of two major current events.

Forty-five percent of Iowans say they approve of how he has addressed COVID-19, while 53% disapprove and 6% are unsure. Just 37% approve of the way he has addressed protests surrounding race and police actions. Another 55% disapprove and 8% are unsure.

Carolyn Robinson, a 44-year-old Des Moines resident and poll respondent, is among those who have problems with the way the president has managed the coronavirus crisis.

“I don't think he's done a very good job at all,” she said. “I think we should have had more PPE (personal protective equipment). We should have been a lot more prepared than what we were. And I don't think he should be blaming other people for his mistakes. He can't take responsibility for what he says and does.”

Robinson, a Democrat, said she’s excited to vote for Biden in November and hopes the former vice president can reverse course and get the country back on track.

But both Biden and Trump are underwater in their favorability ratings, with more Iowans viewing them unfavorably than viewing them favorably.

For Biden, 45% of Iowans view him favorably and 50% view him unfavorably. For Trump, the same portion, 45%, have a favorable view, while 52% have an unfavorable view.

However, poll respondents were more likely to say they have a “very unfavorable” view of the president. Forty-three percent say their views of Trump are “very unfavorable,” including 87% of Democrats and 42% of independents.

Thirty-two percent of Iowans say they have a “very unfavorable” view of Biden. That includes 66% of Republicans and 30% of independents.

Selzer said that dynamic was critical in 2016, when voters regularly said they disliked both candidates and ultimately chose between what many described as the “lesser of two evils.”

She said she expects the Trump campaign to work to “vilify Joe Biden to make him an unacceptable candidate” in the same way they worked to make Hillary Clinton unacceptable to many voters.

“But there's some work to be done there,” she said. “Because there's a stronger revulsion to Trump among the Democrats than there is toward Biden by the Republicans.”

‘A mood that feels more favorable to Democrats’

Supporters have divided firmly along party lines, with the president retaining the support of 93% of the Republican vote and Biden holding 92% of the Democratic vote.

Independents lean slightly toward Biden, 39% to 38%. Another 18% say they would vote for someone other than Biden or Trump.

Trump holds an advantage among those who say their mind is made up, with 87% of his supporters saying they are firm in their choice. Among Biden’s supporters, that number is 80%.

“(Trump) does what he says he's going to do — Israel, building up the military, giving people tax breaks and voting in better judges,” said Brad Blunt, a 55-year-old Ankeny resident and poll respondent.

Blunt said he considers himself an independent voter but tends to side with Republicans on most issues. He plans to vote for Trump in November and has been pleased with the way he’s handled issues around the coronavirus and the protests.

“It’s pretty much just Democratic governors that are causing the issues,” he said. “I think he’s done about all he can do right now.”

Blunt is among the 53% of men who side with the president — a 17-percentage-point lead over Biden, who earns 36% with men.

The gender divide is significant among women as well. Biden leads by 14 percentage points with women, 50% to 36% over Trump.

The gap is even larger among white men with no college degree — a key demographic that helped propel Trump’s success in 2016. That group favors the president 64% to 28% over Biden — a 36-point spread. White women with no college degree prefer Biden 53% to 35% over Trump — an 18-point margin.

Trump leads with the Republican Party’s core voters in Iowa: rural residents (56% to 31%), evangelicals (69% to 20%) and those who live in Iowa’s heavily conservative 4th congressional district, in northwest and north central Iowa (59% to 28%).

Biden does best among those with no religious affiliation (62% to 23%) and those who live in cities (51% to 36%). In the other three congressional districts, he leads:

1st District, northeast Iowa: 48% to 43%. 2nd District, southeast Iowa: 48% to 34%. 3rd District, the Des Moines metro and southwest Iowa: 49% to 41%. Overall, Selzer said this poll seems to indicate a climate that favors Democrats. Likely voters preferred a Democratic U.S. House candidate over a Republican candidate in three of the state’s four congressional districts, and they slightly favored Democratic Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield over Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst.

“Having come out of 2018 (when Democrats flipped two congressional seats) and now, with these dynamics and the popularity of these Democratic candidates, including Theresa Greenfield, it creates a mood that feels more favorable to Democrats statewide,” she said.