📈 Post-Thanksgiving Polling Megathread 🧐

[bold]Monmouth national poll (A+ rating)[/bold]

Biden 26% (+3 since early November)

Sanders 21% (+1)

Warren 17% (-6)

Buttigieg 8% (-1)

Bloomberg 5% (n/a)

Klobuchar 4% (+2)

Yang 3% (-)

Booker 2% (-1)

Forgot to include the link, sorry.

^^ [bold]Non-white support:[/bold]

Biden 32%

Sanders 21%

Warren 11%

Buttigieg 8%

Btw, I'm only posting those national polls that are highly-rated and debate-qualifying. Don't worry if your fave isn't doing that well there; it's the early state polls that matter.

New national poll comes out at 3 pm ET today - possibly Yang's last chance to qualify. His supporters are already cooking up #DebatesSoWhite on Twitter if that doesn't happen. 😄

Eh, there's already a strong thread on the Monmouth poll. The problem with megathreads is they become unwieldy and thanks to DL's wonky interface...often difficult to post on after a while.

[quote]Eh, there's already a strong thread on the Monmouth poll.

You mean the one from November?

It's the same poll as in the Op, r6.

Nate silver said that Quinnipiac is expected to come out at 3 o'clock today.

How well is Emerson rated? I always thought of them as a bit dodgy

r7 Yes, I created that old thread. The problem with bumping old poll threads is that you also bump old conversations (in this Monmouth case from early November), which are super irrelevant to where we are now. And then you have people rehashing old fights and relitigating things that aren't even important to the race anymore (like Kamala's management of her campaign).

I think this approach we're trying now might work better during weeks like this one when a large number of polls are guaranteed to come out.

r9 Emerson is super dodgy with their new online methodology, though they're still rated A-. It's not a debate-qualifying poll, though. They have a substantial pro-Bernie lean.

i expect Emerson to be 1 Bernie 2 Pete 3 Biden 4 Warren 5 Klobuchar

R10, its a thread from earlier today. So, not old and probably not one of yours. I repeat, it's the recent Monmouth poll that's in the op.

Goddess Tulsi saying "SCREW YOU, ESTABLISHMENT!" <33333333

Link to established discussion.

r13 Can you please link it? Because I posted Monmouth in this thread at r1 the same minute it came out.

r15 That is a bad online poll out of South Carolina. This isn't what this thread is about, sorry. You can stay there if you so wish.

Big fucking deal r17, you wanted one thread to discus polls and that one came before yours.

for fucks sake

[bold]Quinnipiac University national poll (B+ rating)[/bold]

Biden 29% (+5 since November)

Sanders 17% (+4)

Warren 15% (+1)

Buttigieg 9% (-7)

Bloomberg 5% (n/a)

Yang 4%

Klobuchar 3%

^^ With that, Yang qualifies for the December debate. And his grandmother just died, so a confusing day for him, I'm sure.

Quinnipiac just released. Great from Biden pretty good from Bernie and it looks like the mayor Pete surge is dying down

Nate Silver

Kamala's exit and Bloomberg's ad blitz have unsettled the field as people seem to be reassessing their options once again.

It's be interesting to see how/if this changes after the December debate. Doubt many will watch it, though.

Oh, and Booker is pretty much toast, in case you haven't noticed that already.

I don't care who it is at this point as long as he can beat Dotard.

The previous Quinnipiac poll had Pete at 16% which was a clear outlier. He’s never been above 12% nationally. around ~10% makes much more sense

I'm so pissed about Bloomberg. He's paying his field organisers 6k per month, the rich bastard.

r27 Yup, that 16% was crazy. No one shoots up like that in a month. Except for Kamala after that first debate, and he clearly didn't have a huge standout media moment like she did. The national polling should shift quickly once Iowa and New Hampshire vote, though.

Democratic primary voters under 35 years old via new Quinnipiac poll:

Sanders 52%

Warren 17%

Biden 11%

Yang 7%

Gabbard 3%

Buttigieg 2%

Bloomberg 2%

Everyone else 1% or less

Emerson's Iowa poll comes out in a few minutes. I expect Pete falling to third

Emerson is bad for Pete and super biased towards Bernie, so I expect the same. Check out this chart.

[bold]Emerson College poll: Iowa (rated A-)[/bold]

Biden 23% (no change since middle of October)

Sanders 22% (+9)

Buttigieg 18% (+2)

Warren 12% (-11)

Klobuchar 10% (+9)

Booker 4% (+1)

Steyer 3% (+1)

Bloomberg, Gabbard, Yang 2%

oh wow. i didnt realize their last poll had Warren winning

Klobuchar!!!

r33I mean, it didn't - she was tied with Biden. But yes, quite the fall. And look at Klobuchar, fucking hell.

I hope this is the beginning of a Klobuchar surge!

[bold]Head-to-heads from Emerson:[/bold]

Trump : Buttigieg - 46 % : 45%

Trump : Biden - 49% : 45%

Trump : Sanders - 50% : 43%

Trump : Warren - 50% : 43%

did they share Trump vs Klobuchar?

r38 They did not, unfortunately. They usually only ask for the top four.

Second choice is absolutely crucial in Iowa's caucuses.

[quote]According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “the second choice question suggests that Mayor Pete might be in better shape than his 18% because nearly 1 in 3 voters who are initially supporting a less viable candidate breaks towards Pete as their second option.”

I am jumping on the Klobuchar bandwagon! She was the first candidate I donated to this cycle but she kinda faded. Hope she's making her move now

By the way, Emerson is the only pollster to routinely show Biden in first place in Iowa, so better treat Amy's surge as an outlier for now, until we get more polls confirming that.

There's a reason this isn't a qualifying poll for the debates.

Trump : Sanders - 50% : 43%

Trump : Warren - 50% : 43%

Go Bernie and Liz!

No one is winning against Trump in those H2Hs, but just a reminder those are silly right now because the voters are still split among the candidates. Once the nominee is confirmed, those numbers will change.

Donald is done and dead, dear.

R42 I am :) but let a gay dream

r45 I was just pointing out the data posted at r37, that's all.

r46 Oh, I went through the exact same shit with Pete's 16% national poll, and landed HARD in the real world earlier today. 😄

R47 Okay...

Donald is done, dead and Dumped, dear.

Okay, sure.

Why Bernie and Liz will win.

WBUR Nee Hampshire poll. Biden must be very happy recently

r52 Thanks, I wanted to post it but couldn't find the pollster rating. I see now it's under MassINC Polling and it's rated A/B.

Buttigieg 18%

Biden 17%

Sanders 15%

Warren 12%

Gabbard 5%

Yang 5%

Klobuchar 3%

Steyer 3%

Bloomberg 2%

All others 1% or less

[bold]The Economist/ YouGov national poll among likely voters (rated B-)[/bold]

Biden: 26% (+3 since last month)

Warren: 21% (-5)

Sanders: 16% (-1)

Buttigieg: 11% (+2)

Bloomberg: 4% (-)

Yang: 3% (-)

Gabbard: 3% (+1)

Booker: 3% (+1)

Klobuchar: 2% (-1)

[bold]Which candidates would Democratic voters be disappointed by if they won the nomination?[/bold]

Gabbard 37%

Williamson 36%

Bloomberg 31%

Biden 24%

Steyer 23%

Sanders 22%

Delaney 22%

Yang 18%

Klobuchar 17%

Warren 16%

Buttigieg 15%

Booker 14%

[bold]CNN/SSRS Super Tuesday poll: California (A/B rating)[/bold]

Biden 21%

Sanders 20%

Warren 17%

Buttigieg 9%

Yang 6%

Bloomberg 5%

[bold]CNN/SSRS Super Tuesday poll: Texas[/bold]

Biden 35%

Sanders 15%

Warren 13%

Buttigieg 9%

Bloomberg 5%

Castro, Yang 3%

^^ DL doesn't allow me to post the link to the CNN article for some reason. 😑

[bold]Marquette Law Wisconsin poll (rated A/B)[/bold]

Biden 23% (-7% since November)

Sanders 19% (+2%)

Warren 16% (+1%)

Buttigieg 15% (+2%)

Don't Know 11%

Booker 4%

Bloomberg 3%

Yang 3%

Klobuchar 3%

Gabbard 1%