Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa 'Selzer' Poll (A+ rating)

Bloomberg 2% (-1 vs Dec. 2018)

Bennet 1% (+1)

Bullock <1% (-1)

Castro <1% (-1)

Sestak <1% (-)

Delaney 0% (-1)

Williamson 0% (-)

Poor Kamala. She rebooted her campaign to focus solely on Iowa, and she dropped three points.

Favorability for the top five:

Buttigieg 72/16 (+56)

Warren 71/25 (+46)

Biden 64/33 (+31)

Klobuchar 53/23 (+30)

Sanders 61/35 (+26)

Favorability for the rest:

Castro 35/35 (0)

Steyer 37/39 (-2)

Sestak 8/24 (-16)

Delaney 18/34 (-16)

Gabbard 25/45 (-20)

Williamson 11/47 (-36)

Bloomberg 19/58 (-39)

Oh, Larry Selzer! We loved his show on CNN.

Electability:

Biden 52%

Pete/Warren 46%

Sanders 40%

Holy shit - this is honestly pretty astonishing.

He's minced meat come Wednesday. Although, looking at those favorability numbers, come at him at your own risk.

Deval Patrick will put a stop to this!

Holy Fuck!

He might win Iowa, but he will be killed off (politically) in the South.

the times they are a changing

r11 It's a long way still until the South is in play, I wouldn't be playing Kassandra just yet if I were you.

I don’t buy this poll for one second. 16 points in a month? Bullshit. More lies by neolibs scared of Warren and Sanders. Pete will be an afterthought by Super Tuesday.

r14 This particular poll is the gold standard of Iowa polls. You better believe it.

He's about to get gangbanged at Wednesday's debate.

Interesting the top three are Mayor P, with lead over Warren and Biden and Sanders, neck in neck.

Add up the shares and it's centrists 40%, progressives 31%.

71% of the vote gone to four candidates and 29% shared by the remaining 300 (I rounded up, I assume Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Al Gore will be announcing soon.)

Four CBS debate-qualifying early state polls coming out tomorrow as well, so if you're supporting Pete, don't get too discouraged if his numbers don't look that good in SC and Nevada. His campaign is on it and is expanding strategically as planned. You don't want to get too hot too early, or you get slapped with the dreaded coronation narrative, and the voters HATE that.

30% are settled on their candidate, compared to 20% in September. Still a soft race, just slightly less now than before.

R15, she's choosing not to believe it.

Wow. Pete better be doing Rocky-like training for this debate on Wednesday.

First and second choice combined:

Buttigieg 39%

Warren 36%

Biden & Sanders 28%

Polls don't matter until we get past the holidays and the nuremberg trials.

[quote]He's about to get gangbanged at Wednesday's debate.

Yes. It will be interesting to see how he handles that because it probably will be assault from all sides. Biden, I bet, leaves him alone, because there's no upside to interrupting the pile on from the bottom tier candidates.

Similarly I'd guess Bernie may scold Pete a bit but only to reinforce his bona fides... Bernie's goal is to further erode Warren, who has had a rough ride since M4A started lurching all over the message map (she was lucky the impeachment hearings started when they did.)

It will be interesting to watch Warren as she has generally, wisely, avoided the fray... ignoring the rest and pushing her messages. Does she keep on or does she dive in? She's been swatting at Biden (and him back) but suddenly Biden isn't the target for Iowa, although she could take a strategy finish off Biden and let youth, inexperience and anti-gay sentiment finish off Pete in due course.

Then the rest of the desperate pile on Pete. He's the natural target. Everybody want to win Iowa if only for bragging rights and because the fucking media needs its stupid narrative.

It's amazing what millions of dollars from rich donors can do for a candidate.

Iowa, sodomy capital of the USA.

Pete is killing it!

r21 He's on a strict exercise regimen, though I don't think that can prepare you for whatever Kamala and Booker have in store for him. Amy I'm certain he can deal with relatively easily, but those two? It's going to hurt when they land a hit. A LOT. There's no avoiding it, he just has to try not to get thrown off too much or get snippy or shouty. Just remain composed through it all.

R25 seriously. Pete is buying this election. He will start to fall too. Ted Cruz won Iowa.

I hope Pete calls warren out forr co-opting his Medicare plan.

r25 Yes, it's truly amazing how many free rallies with free food Warren was able to fund over the summer with her Martha's Vineyard money from 2018, when Pete was still going around with a begging bowl and a non-existing email list.

[quote]though I don't think that can prepare you for whatever Kamala and Booker have in store for him.

It's a big Watergate-y but he could send a campaign staffer to break into any Des Moines area t-shirt printers.

r30 He's already released a very firm statement about it. Which is understandable - he wants the moderators to ask him, not Biden, Kamala, or Amy.

Good. More scrutiny.

R30 her plan is far better than his. It has an actual timeline and actual hard numbers. Pete just says we’ll get to Medicare for all “eventually” aka never.

Yeah her $20 trillion plan to force people to give up what they have. The rest of the country is hungry for that.

r35 Nope, her transition plan has basically turned the 2022 midterms into a referendum on M4A. In other words, she's cleaned her hands of the whole thing and laid it squarely onto the shoulders of senators running that year. And that's AFTER months of yelling about fighting, courage, corporate shills, and running in the wrong primary.

His plan also has hard numbers (look it up), but it doesn't break the bank. We're supposed to be cleaning after Trump's deficit, after all.

The Warren & Bernie trolls are in meltdown.

r38 Yup, they are now VOWING he is never going to get a single black vote anywhere. Because the supporters of these two New England senators are famously gatekeepers to the entire black electorate.

And that's after spending the entire day cancelling the first and only black president on Twitter, mind you.

Honestly, Pete is the one I like the best and I will be very happy to vote for him in the primary. I don't feel like I can say that to anyone I know. They're firmly in the Warren camp and won't support any white male who isn't Bernie Sanders.

I'm not thrilled with any of the other candidates, but I would tepidly support Biden or Warren if Pete weren't in the picture.

R36 so people should continue to die due to lack of health care because some people enjoy being slaves to the insurance establishment and paying $400 a month for shitty coverage? Medicare for all is the only way. Every other country figured that out decades ago.

I think it's safe to say that Biden is nearly finished. Pete is the best of the moderates, and Warren is the best of the progressives. The nominee will be one of those two.

Fuck. I’m excited but nervous 😬

Ha! R39! Was going to post something similar.

100% agree

r41 M4A will be the end result regardless of the candidate elected. It'll just take slightly longer under candidates who aren't Bernie (until this Friday also Warren).

r42 Agreed. Honestly, this would have been so much cleaner from the very start without Biden and Bernie in the picture.

Though Amy has been gaining recently, so watch out for that one.

I haven't really followed Pete or any of the candidates but saw this posted on Social Media that he's at the top of the Iowa poll. There were a few comments about how Obama also led the poll and then it was quickly followed by a few posts that said, "Yeah, but Obama was never a racist."

What's that about?

Exactly R45

M4A scares people mostly because the US government has a shitty track record at running things.

You all have to get it out of your heads that they remotely LIKE their current insurance companies.

The problem is that they fear that M4A is going to be worse than what they have now.

That's what Warren's latest plan is a reaction to--let them see it's not worse.

R45 sorry but I don’t buy it. And some people literally can’t afford to wait for Pete’s “eventually”. Pete has flip flopped himself into an anti M4A candidate.

Medicare for All is never going to happen, no matter how good it might be. The most we'll ever get is a public option tacked on to whatever is left of Obamacare.

It's about why you should not listen to Twitter which is just a reflection of the views of People Who Really Like Discussing Politics on Twitter, which is a tiny group of people.

To put it this way, FB has well over 1B users. Twitter only has around 300M (worldwide) and the assumption my company's social media experts make is that the actual number is closer to 100M because of duplicate and fake accounts.

R51 was in response to R47

r47 It's just utter desperation. They cannot allow him to gain black support in SC, because it'll be game over. So now - not equipped with any particular facts - they're simply calling him a racist. It's kinda homophobic to call the only gay candidate a racist and no one else, but you're not supposed to say that because they'll accuse you of calling black people homophobic.

There's another aspect to this - he's just made a huge radio ad buy in SC. By kneecapping him before he even starts properly campaigning in SC, Warren and Bernie are now forcing him to splurge more in SC, and so become less competitive in Nevada and California. I truly hope people don't fall for these Trumpian tactics.

I like Pete's and now Warren's gradual approach.

Pete was always bound to do well in Iowa. He's a Midwesterner too, white and bland and serious and not very excitable, just like they are. Places like South Carolina and Nevada are very different.

It just goes to show what a disastrous primary system we have.

Kamala spent 20 MILLION dollars more than Tulsi and is at her same polling number 🥰🥰🥰

That’s what happens when you stand for absolutely nothing by standing for anything. Hope her donors are happy with wasting their cash!

BUT go Pete being in the lead! Knew he’d clean up in the Midwest and crush it. All of you MARY!ing Marys 🙄. Proud donor!

[quote]M4A scares people mostly because the US government has a shitty track record at running things.

People also forget that Medicare already exists, and it works very well. It's not some "unknown" plan where the government is going to make up the rules as they go.

It covers the basics as well as specialized care, usually with low co-pays and out-of-pocket costs. People who want enhanced coverage usually buy their own supplemental plan.

The biggest advantage is that it would take employers completely out of the health-coverage business, which would eliminate a ton of cost, bureaucracy, and complexity from the system.

[quote]By kneecapping him before he even starts properly campaigning in SC, Warren and Bernie are now forcing him to splurge more in SC

Presidential primaries are, and have always been, highly competitive races. If he can't handle being "kneecapped," as you put it, he won't win and doesn't deserve to.

He won't raise taxes on those making less than $1 million, will be?

I like him. He's sensible. Nuclear power is an important part of getting carbon out of energy production.

r54 I like Warren's transition plan as well. But man, she [italic]really[/italic] should not have raked other candidates over the coals by calling them corporate shills who lacked courage for as long as she did. This karma will have to be dealt with now.

Recall when Kamala swapped her original pure M4A option for a more gradual approach, people declared her a flip-flopper and she was done.

*will he?

You've answered your own response R57-- they FORGET it already exists and, I will add, they frequently mix it up with MediCAID which is for poor people and somehow decide that it's "welfare insurance"

That said, once people see the benefits and that it's not worse than what they have, they'll be fine with it.

r58 No one suggested he should be pampered. But maybe calling him a racist via your surrogates and supporters isn't the most optimal approach? These people do understand we'll have to come together for the general, correct? If he gets the nom, how are you going to convince black Americans to vote for someone you were calling a racist in the primary?

Pete's health care plan is the best. It opens up medicare for people of all ages who need it and want it! Go Pete!

Interestingly a lot of progressives that were attacking Pete a few weeks ago for "flipfloping" on health care are silent about Warrens.

Some of you are acting like Pete just won the entire race. It’s one poll three months out. Our elections have become such a joke. More akin to a sporting event. America is embarrassing.

[quote]Though Amy has been gaining recently, so watch out for that one.

I've always thought Amy had the potential to be a dark-horse candidate that could rally as it gets closer.

Looks like each has a time at the top but then Biden returns to the top.

r65 No one is acting that way. As has been pointed out, 30% of the people polled in this poll are settled on their candidate. The race - even in Iowa, let alone anywhere else - is FAR from over. We could have a President-elect Yang this time next year.

But people are still allowed to get excited when their candidate does well.

[quote]I like Pete's and now Warren's gradual approach.

Now that Warren has softened up a bit on her healthcare plan, which was everyone's main criticism of her...there's really no reason now not to vote for her.

[quote]Recall when Kamala swapped her original pure M4A option for a more gradual approach, people declared her a flip-flopper and she was done.

The Kamala campaign's problems run a lot deeper than just flip-flopping on M4A.

r67 That is a distinct possibility, yes - that they blink at the last minute and go for (in their minds) the safest option.

However, it needs to be said these polling numbers will affect his fundraising numbers, which will decrease his competitiveness.

If Warren loses Iowa, NH and SC, then her campaign is pretty much over. There's no way for her to come back from that.

Obama may have already ended her campaign this week anyway.

r70 I know, I know, but she really got punished for that one.

Biden returns to the top after something happens that lets the media create a narrative that the frontrunner made some kind of mistake.

r69 I mean... by that logic, there's also no reason not to vote for Pete, who's had this plan from the start.

Why have I barely seen people on Twitter screaming "flip-flopper" at Warren over this edited healthcare plan?

It's going to freak me out if Pete wins Iowa. The implications of that would be huge. Just the idea that we could possibly have the first GAY president is kind of mind-blowing.

Is that even a possibility in our lifetimes? I'm sure it's all a dream.

r66 Yes, I think Amy, Booker, and Kamala are all obvious dark horses. Do NOT underestimate or write off any of them.

Having said that, I feel like there's a history of abuse with Amy that is just waiting to come out in an explosive exposé. And then what?

Amazing. Go Pete!

r76 Because her surrogates are THAT good; they've declared her change of mind as the best thing since sliced bread, after saying until only a couple of weeks ago that you're in the pockets of Big Pharma if you don't support pure and immediate M4A.

There's admittedly been quite a bit of pushback from the Bernie sphere.

[quote]Poor Kamala. She rebooted her campaign to focus solely on Iowa, and she dropped three points.

She also called the deplorable Tulsi "a lower tier candidate".

r77 Yes, I'm also convinced it'll all be over any day now. Sad that we're conditioned that way.

[quote]Obama may have already ended her campaign this week anyway.

How? If Sanders publicly passes the baton to Warren at some point, that's going to put her at a HUGE advantage.

Biden is the one that needs to be worried. Despite being the frontrunner for months, he has nothing to show for it at this point. Enthusiasm is waning greatly (not that there was much there to begin with) and the younger equally moderate Buttigieg is getting more support. The man Obama wanted to run has now entered the race as well. Plus, if he gets roped into the impeachment hearing mess, that could greatly hinder his campaign, if not outright finish it off.

Amy Klobuchar sucks. She the Ann Romano of politicians.

[quote]by that logic, there's also no reason not to vote for Pete, who's had this plan from the start.

Well... there's the whole "no national experience" problem.

r81 She jinxed it bad when she said that. And to be fair, she might have still been right about that, if it weren't for Hillary's intervention.

What's interesting about Buttigieg is that this appears to have all been a calculated plan that he's executing on pretty well. This is phase 3 and, so far, it appears to be working, after several months where it has been being executed under the radar.

[quote]“The first phase was just getting people to understand how to pronounce this impossible to pronounce Maltese last name,” Lis Smith, a senior adviser to the campaign who has been with Buttigieg from the start, told BuzzFeed News. “The second phase was to blow everyone out of the water on fundraising — everyone out of the fucking water. Done. Done. Now the third phase is blow them out of the water with our organization and our organizational abilities.”

[quote]The strategy, as explained in interviews this week with Smith and two other top aides, is to catch up with other campaign organizations in the early caucus and primary states and wait for candidates with less money to drop. Buttigieg’s paid staff has grown to more than 300 — up from 30 just a few months ago — with about 70 on the ground in Iowa and 50 in New Hampshire. New field offices are scheduled to open across both states next week. And the campaign has ramped up its digital advertising, using platforms such as Spotify.

r84 Well, there's also the whole "more executive experience than Obama" thingy, so...

Dlers will hate on Pete because Successful Gay Man

r88 I admit I'm a... moderate offender when it comes to that, but man, this one is just too important for representation in the US and abroad. No way am I allowing my ego get in the way of it.

[quote]Having said that, I feel like there's a history of abuse with Amy that is just waiting to come out in an explosive exposé. And then what?

"And then Amy took her comb out of her purse and hit me in the face with it! I still have the scars."

Yes Pete interests me because he is gay. But I'm for him because he's smart, young and, more than anyone else, he is everything Trump is not. I feel the more the contrast, the better the chances of winning.

And just think... if Trump gets impeached and Pence takes over, me might have two gay men running for president in 2020...

[quote]Why have I barely seen people on Twitter screaming "flip-flopper" at Warren over this edited healthcare plan?

Because she's not "flip-flopping". She's still pushing Medicare for ALL, which Pete is not. It's just that now she's being more realistic about the time-frame, expecting it to take 3 years to be expanded to the point of covering everyone.

r91 I just want four years of fucking PEACE. And I fully know he can deliver on that front. I also know he'd be way more progressive in his executive actions than people imagine right now.

Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself. Still think it'll all come crashing down eventually, because we can't have nice things, as 2016 demonstrated.

[quote]Poor Kamala. She rebooted her campaign to focus solely on Iowa, and she dropped three points.

I think the quote was "I'm fucking moving to Iowa, O.K.?"

r93 Medicare for ALL...

...if she gets the votes in the Senate after the 2022 red wave. In other words, "your bad, not my fault, should have voted for the liberals etc etc etc." How convenient.

Pete is in the lead in Iowa because he gets old white folks to relax. This is how you win elections in the modern era. At least this next one before the demographics change.

r95 Yes, that was the quote. And she still hasn't moved to Iowa.

[quote]Pete is the best of the moderates, and Warren is the best of the progressives. The nominee will be one of those two.

I've heard that before, somewhere.

r83, Pete is getting more support in Iowa, not nationwide.

Biden is still ahead of Pete and everybody else nationwide.

R94 how do you “know” that he’ll be more progressive? That’s a laughable comment

Buttigieg Tops Pack!

I'd watch, depending on who's in the pack.

r94, the same way Obama was more progressive after he was elected?

Oh that's right, he wasn't.

r99 Yes, he got bashed after saying this MIGHT turn into a two-way race in Iowa sometime in the future. Which it now has. But he's so gracious, he just said he was premature in saying that, basically giving that misquote credence.

[quote]To put it this way, FB has well over 1B users. Twitter only has around 300M (worldwide) and the assumption my company's social media experts make is that the actual number is closer to 100M because of duplicate and fake accounts.

Yes, but the people on Twitter are [italic]important[/italic]. And they are important because they are on Twitter.

r100 The primary isn't decided in a national election, so what does it matter who's doing better nationally?

[quote]"How can @PeteButtigieg be doing so well in Iowa?" asks Political Twitter. For one, only about 25% of Americans have Twitter, and only a fraction of those on Twitter use it to follow politics. For two, Twitter activists skew to the left of the average Dem voter. So... Open your heart to the possibility that everyone's favorite 280 character social network might not be that representative of the voters who normally attend the Iowa caucus!

From the founder of Iowa Starting Line:

[quote]A bit of advice upon seeing many of the very nasty reactions from various activists on Twitter to Buttigieg's rise in Iowa: maybe try a different approach, since the online negativity clearly hasn't slowed him down yet

👏👏👏

[quote]Yes, I think Amy, Booker, and Kamala are all obvious dark horses. Do NOT underestimate or write off any of them.

It's safe to write off Booker.

Kind of what I was saying R107

Election is for President of the US, not President of Twitter

Though that will not stop many, many lazy journos from pulling things off Twitter and treating it like they'd just done a series of man-on-the-street interviews

Do not take Twitter seriously. Most of the real world doesn't know it exists. It's a mentally ill person ranting in the street.

r106, the primary isn't decided in Iowa alone either. How is Pete doing in some of the other states? How is he doing in the Southern states where a lot of the Democratic base (black women voters) live and vote? That matters too.

Here's a hint: He has work to do.

r109 Trust me when I say it is not. He doesn't have a single qualifying poll for the December debate yet and he just saw what happened to Castro. He's going to drop the Warrior of Love spiel on Wednesday and SCALP Pete. And he's going to enlist Amy and Kalama to hold him down while he does it.

Pete the Elite is supported by his own and will protect them in turn.

[quote]the primary isn't decided in Iowa alone either

r112 It most certainly isn't. However - for better or worse - it shapes the narrative going into NH (via MASSIVE national exposure), and the two then both shape what happens in SC and Nevada. It's just how it goes, whether we like it or not.

He absolutely has A LOT of work ahead of him. But this is a marathon, not a sprint. No one apart from Biden (via legacy support) has yet convinced the voters in SC and Nevada that they are the ones who should get their vote. And none of that can be done in a month, by anyone.

R104 you Pete shills are insane, how is this a two way race now? It’s ONE poll with a three way tie for second.

r116 You really ought to calm down.

Enten is correct. Chilling statistic when it comes to Iowa...

[quote]The last 6 candidates who were leading with less than 49% in Iowa at this point went on to lose Iowa and the nomination. Buttigieg may break that streak, but we got a long way to go.

[quote]And she still hasn't moved to Iowa.

Can you really blame her?

r119 Okay, that made me guffaw. 😂

Bet both Joe and Elizabeth looked at those numbers and wanted to strangle Bernie.

Harris actually kinda did move to Iowa. It just hasn't done her any good.

[quote]In late September, Harris’ team said it would more than double its paid staff here, bringing its total to 131. They also said they would increase the number of offices in Iowa from seven to 17. Harris' Iowa campaign officials have not said how many new paid staff is coming here in this second influx, nor what type of workers they will be.

[quote]Iowa has been a second home to Harris since them. (A reporter overheard her telling another member of Congress “I’m (expletive) moving to Iowa in late September.) In October, she has visited the state five times and spent 15 days here. In his memo, Rodriguez wrote that Harris would spend Thanksgiving here next month.

[quote]After the late September staffing surge, Harris said she was shooting for a top-three finish in Iowa. Asked Wednesday what she will do if she misses that mark, Harris said, “Have that conversation with me after the caucuses.” She gave a similar response when asked whether Wednesday’s announcement jeopardizes her chances to compete in the other early states.

r122 Wow. Granted, she did gave an amazing speech at the LBJ dinner.

So she now has two more debates to turn her ship around. Hard, though not impossible.

*give

Okay, time for bed.

R53, If Biden the previous top Moderate/Centrist keeps falling then look to Vegas' unions to do a deal with Mayor Pete. NV will go with whomever the unions choose. Guaranteed. It's why Bernie Sanders had no chance in NV despite many very valid protests from groups of well-organized UNLV students.

Remember many Nevadans join the union or work for casinos for their medical insurance plan. Mayor Pete allows them to keep it.

r125 How much does a candidate knowing Spanish count for in Nevada, roughly?

If you knew the math we'd buy the data.

R125, Knowing Spanish isn't really all that relevant in the scheme of things. NV economy is still strong. Population skews elderly except for 20's and 30's in the labor force. Normal for both parents to work full-time and grandparents to raise the kids especially for Latinx.

College attendance is low as that's not where most of the steady, well-paying jobs exist with the exception of healthcare. Free college or loan forgiveness will go down like a dead balloon. So many kids and especially Latinx start working by the age of 9, full-time by high school. Little time to study. Everyone complains about the poor quality of public education.

R125, Must add the importance of the Catholic Church and the well-run Catholic Charities in Vegas for Latinx. Can't see Latinx voting for an atheist, for example. There's a huge split underlying NV residents between the "partiers" and those who have more Conservative, family-oriented values. Remember every casino and most major employers do on the spot drug testing. Medical MJ is legal in NV but still the #1 reason for not showing up at work is being too hung over.

Homelessness is becoming a visible issue in Las Vegas. Recently downtown/Fremont Street passed laws to crackdown on it as it was hurting casino business and bothering tourist. Nothing in NV gets OK'd without casino approval.

So who do the casino owners and major investors, other than solid Republicans Adelson and Wynn, support? Betting it's not going to be a candidate that threatens to increase their taxes and makes them feel less safe. War is TERRIBLE for casinos.

R55, What you see as "White and bland" Moderates/Centrists see as safe in uncertain times. Rumors of an unstable stock market, US widespread crop failures and extreme weather patterns, plus failures of major banks in Germany, political turmoil in Latin America and Hong Kong.as well as in the Middle East and savvy people knowing full well what happens in other countries often effects the US economy, makes voters seek stability.

Note Mayor Pete spends less time bashing Trump versus the other candidates. Would make him appear too negative and how many want to listen to more "fear porn" when they already feel uncertain?

[Quote] Note Mayor Pete spends less time bashing Trump versus the other candidates.

Very important to note. Pete looks ahead unlike the oldies.

[quote]He doesn't have a single qualifying poll for the December debate yet and he just saw what happened to Castro. He's going to drop the Warrior of Love spiel on Wednesday and SCALP Pete. And he's going to enlist Amy and Kalama to hold him down while he does it.

Here at DL, we've clocked Booker's closet act since he was rushing around saving puppies and old ladies from fires, shoveling snow, and venerating the Lubavitcher Rebbe in Newark. We know he's an empty suit, has a Wall Street money problem the size of Trump's Executive Time dumps, and will destroy his own brand if he attempts to butch it up.

You can write him off.

You may be right R41, but realities are the country wont accept such a policy at this time.

It seems you are willing to lose an election over a principle that becomes even further away from reality when you put someone like Trump back in the White House.

At least get a Democrat that is electable and you may have a chance one day of Universal Health Care for all.

As it is, you're all willing to throw the baby out with the bath water over stupid ideology. Warren & Sanders cant win in middle America or The South. A bunch of coastal votes DOES NOT get you the Presidency.

Are you all that thick!

I"m not sure a gay man who is under 40 gets us the presidency either.

It's funny to be reminded of his age. A bit shocking. He never seems under 40. But he is and I agree, it could be tricky... another thing to surmount where the great barely washed are concerned.

He is the president of basic white people and no one else. It makes sense that most basic gays love him. Iowa the corn field place of America whiter than white.

Why do you come here, R136, if you hate us so much and we're so hopeless? In your view, do you reckon your comments mean anything to us? Will you reform us? What is your point? What is the point of you?

It's his shtick, R137. He *really* doesn't like Buttigieg:

[quote]Black are not impressed with over pandering. Besides blacks in general are not too fond of gays especially a white gay man. Biden is the best choice and all the other candidates are risk.

[quote]Most of you are so naive to think that dems or on the fence voters will do the right thing. Some of the people I know have been honest that they might vote for trump this time. I appreciate those people honesty even if I don't agree with it. I hate passive people who say trump is bad but might secretly vote for him or are indifferent.

[quote]He is second in a non important one poll. Try harder Pete frau.

[quote]You are gonna keep repeating that one irrelevant poll until the wheels fall off. It is not relevant and your boy is in third place now but tomorrow he might go back to fourth place since, it is anyone game. Nationally he is in the fourth place. You are really delusional.

[quote] Poor Kamala. She rebooted her campaign to focus solely on Iowa, and she dropped three points.

She's polling the same as Tulsi now. Hilarious.

'I'm a top-tier candidate'

Gurl, Marianne about to overtake you.

R137. It is a free country. Be defensive all you want, your boy isn't gonna win. R138. You seem obsessed with me. Pete fanboys are bothered because we blacks do not like him.

My boys will win b because my boy is Biden.

Pete needs to get a black celebrity to endorse him like Bernie did with Big D or killer D or whatever his name was. Maybe Tyler Perry?

Deval Patrick as his VP and the problem's solved

I like that he's not into reparations or decriminalizing illegal border entries.

R55: We need proportional voting and multiple parties. Then the parties can just pick candidates and you have 5 or 6 to pick from in the general election. Far superior system than the filthy cobbled together carp we use now.

R59: Where do we store the nuclear waste for a 1000 years? I'm still waiting for an answer to that.

R145: Of course you do because you're a troll. You tried this shit on a previous Buttigieg thread about 2 weeks ago. You're boring. Very boring.

R146, I'm a moderate. Block me and see. I actually like him because he's like Biden but young and savvy.

R146 he's in favor of more nuclear power. We can store it in that facility in Nevada.

Now get in line and support nuclear power.

R136, Question. If you saw Biden slip in the polls, which will likely happen if he does poorly in Iowa, then would you change your mind? Many low-interest voters automatically back whomever's on top. Also Biden's supporters are among the weakest of the electorate.

R144, I don't see Deval Patrick getting a ton of Black voter backing. Mayor Pete would have to choose a VP to bring in Black votes particularly those from Black women, and that means a candidate who's proven to economically improve the lives of those in his/her constituency. We all know reparations will not ever pass Congress.

Obama is right, why turn off voters with a far left candidate when none of their policies would pass anyone. Go with the moderate who can win over voters and actually win the election.

Nice article by Clare Malone.

Nice cheatsheet for everyone to get in line.

Funny, i didn't see any Warren is so white pieces when she was on top? Me thinks it has to do with blacks won't support a gay white dude angle.

R143, You sound like you advocate pandering. Most Black voters can see right through those tactics. Do you actually think paying Beyonce and Jay-Z helped turn out the vote for HRC in 2016? What a joke.

What Mayor Pete needs to do is to listen to the advice I gave him on DL months ago. Lay out a solid economic plan to help the lives of the poorest Blacks and also the homeless across the US. That must be a plan that would likely get bi-partisan Congressional approval, unlike reparations. Also put forth a serious outline of how to combat LE over-the-top aggression towards minorities. Since he's still Mayor in IN he should demonstrate these plans in his own city ASAP.

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has proposed raising the top [marginal] individual tax rate to 49.9 percent.

(From the current 37 percent for every dollar over $500,000)

R153, here you go.

R153, here's more.

R153

r154 Isn't that pandering? Voters do respond to pandering. Pete has proposed putting 5 billion more dollars into creating black owned buisnesses.

R153 Politico

R153 AP

R153 November.

R153

Biden probably thinks Buttigieg coming in 1st in Iowa would be a good thing for him because it keeps momentum down for Warren and Sanders before they get to South Carolina but if Biden comes in 4th in both Iowa and New Hampshire i think all bets are off for South Carolina.

The Democratic party is fucked if Biden doesn't get the nomination. The other candidates are terrible and can't win the general election. Candidates with niche supporters won't cut it.

[quote] Funny, i didn't see any Warren is so white pieces when she was on top? Me thinks it has to do with blacks won't support a gay white dude angle.

Warren is a woman. That's why.

R159, I don't call solid promises backed up by evidence of accomplishments pandering. It's not empty claims nor the unproven theory, "I'm Black so you should vote for me (even though I'm really mixed race, or I've done little to improve the lives of the poor and/or other Blacks.)

Re Mayor Pete's potential VP candidate, Exactly which Blacks or those of any other race have dramatically improved the lives of minorities in their electorate? Not just given "lip service" or made empty promises and claims, nor focused on repeatedly bashing Trump as if that would make voters' lives any better.

Have you guys thought, really thought, what it would mean around the world and in redneck states to have a gay man as president of the USA? Imagine the meeting with the Middle Eastern heads of state and it's impact on the gays iniran and Saudi Arabia. The interactions with Putin and it's message to gay Russians.... What the bullied gay teen, the future Matthew Shepards, would feel. What is taught in school. After all the humiliations. The hiding. The code switching. The violence....

The most powerful man in the world - a gay man... As a game changer it would be even more dramatic and radical than a woman POTUS.

Think about it. Now practice saying, Oh I support Pete but for his policies yadda yadda and not because he is gay....

R168, one can say much of the same about a woman being president.

[quote]That must be a plan that would likely get bi-partisan Congressional approval

No plan (of any kind) any Democrat comes up with will get bi-partisan Congressional approval. Especially not one that addresses anything that has to do with black or brown people.

R170, you're absolutely right. If they did, reparations wouldn't even be something that needs to be brought up.

I like Pete and all, but this is what I'm afraid of: when heads of state are in another country, they are subject to that country's laws. If Pete were to visit somewhere where homosexuality is punishable by death, how do we know that it won't be another RFK moment where he's shaking someone's hand and you have a Sirhan Sirhan? I would hate for that to happen, so how do we remedy that? Maybe have a Buttgieg/Warren ticket?

That's actually a better question: out of all the people running, who would pick who for their VP from the candidates that are running? Don't pick someone who's not in the race right now, haha. :)

Pete is too young, too gay, and too short to be president.

R148: I will get in line for NO ONE! And Forbes magazine? Right wing Forbes? Which says that if you don't support nuclear, you don't care about climate change? GTFO.

R164, Would the unions continue to support Biden if he's no longer seen as a winner? Guessing they'll look for the next Moderate/Centrist in line. Doubt Bloomberg or Deval can catch up in time.

Anyone else wondering if there will be a brokered convention?

To the poster proposing a Mayor Pete - Warren combined ticket, neither one has strong Black voter support.

R49, Pete isn’t saying he will have a public option someday. He’s saying, let people who want a public option have it, and people who don’t want it, keep what they have. As people see other people have Medicare and like it, they will migrate of their own free will. Give them a choice to decide when.

How you get “people can’t wait” out of this, I don’t know. People don’t have to wait with his plan. They can voluntarily decide to buy a Medicare style plan any time they want.

People that have Medicare very often carry a supplemental plan, because it doesn’t cover everything. You have to have a supplemental plan or you will inevitably get stuck with a big bill. So there will still be private insurance in some form.

In the other countries with National Health, like the UK, people also often buy supplemental plans to get better care. True “one size fits all” plans are not as common as you think.

The other issue is that this is America, a lot of people are very untrusting of politicians, and if you tell them it’s going to be fine, they don’t believe you. Nothing any politician can say will change that.

[quote]Would the unions continue to support Biden if he's no longer seen as a winner?

Unions don't follow candidates they think are winners. Unions broker deals to support candidates to make winners. Not everything's American Idol.

Harry Reid saying Iowa and New Hampshire "don't matter." So pissed some polls show Uncle Joe behind the gay 37 year old Mayor.

Many polls all different results. CBS poll shows Biden back on top of the pack.

If Oprah doesn’t stop calling him Pete Booty-boop, I’m going to vomit on my penis

[Quote] [R168], one can say much of the same about a woman being president.

I agree, up to a point. But the impact would be more domestic.

The world has seen several powerful women on the world stage leading their countries. Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher, and several others. Angela Merkel has virtually been the leader of the entire free world with the abdication of the US and UK.

A woman POTUS would send a very powerful message, no denying that. But a gay POTUS would be electrifying. For many, we'd be electing a criminal.

[Quote] [R168], one can say much of the same about a woman being president.

I agree, up to a point. But the impact would be more domestic.

The world has seen several powerful women on the world stage leading their countries. Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher, and several others. Angela Merkel has virtually been the leader of the entire free world with the abdication of the US and UK.

A woman POTUS would send a very powerful message, no denying that. But a gay POTUS would be electrifying. For many, we'd be electing a criminal.

If Biden loses Iowa, it's over for him. It's an unquestionable knockout punch.

Not likely. Biden's already preparing the spin for an Iowa loss. His team has been talking about it. If he isn't the front runner he's the longest running front runner and the front runner who keeps returning to first place. Biden will hold steady for as long as possible.

The Democratic nomination race remains unsettled because many voters are conflicted between what they want and whether they think can win.

Warren, whose support has dipped since last month, is seen by most as exciting; however, many also describe her as risky and worry her policy stances are too liberal to defeat President Trump, a sign that some of the recent critiques leveled at her may have slowed her momentum. [bold]Among Warren's backers last month who now pick a different candidate, the bulk of them went to Biden and Pete Buttigieg.[/bold]

So, across the early primary and caucus states through Super Tuesday, voters' top pick continues to swing back and forth between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, with neither able to break away.

[bold]Biden, who has regained the edge in both the poll and our delegate model, is described by most as safe but not exciting.

Biden will never drop out. He and Bernie will ride that stubborn old man wave together until we all drown together.

Looks like Bloomberg's going nowhere. When he comes up last in Iowa, will he bank everything on New Hampshire or say screw it and run as an independent spoiler?

Buttigieg saw a decent rise in every state polled by YouGov/CBS, even South Carolina going from 4% to 8%, slow and steady wins the race.

[quote] don't think that can prepare you for whatever Kamala and Booker have in store for him.

Booker is no problem. My Pete definitely knows how to handle a big black di...er, man.

Buttigieg will end up spending a lot of time in states with a lot of black voters and will win them over.

I’ve seen tweets from a South Bend woman who says lots of blacks in SB support him and the media just got hold of this meme about Pete not being liked by blacks. I’ve also recently seen black voters interviewed in other states who had done their homework and knew about him and supported him. People ought to wonder where this “all blacks hate Pete” thing came from. Probably Russians trying to knock off moderate candidates.

Black Twitter does not represent the black electorate most of whom are older.

Half of black twitter is shit stirring conservatives pretending to be black

Call me MARY! but my god I’m almost a bit taken a back by just how many people absolutely hate Pete on Twitter - some of the vitriol is just so intense in its nastiness, it’s telling. Even the kid who cofounded March For Our Lives fucking hates him and wants everyone to know.

R192 yeah, he is hated on twitter more than all the other candidates combined. especially by woke gay men who hate themselves. you would think biden would get the most hate but criticisms of him are mild compared to the actual hate with Pete

r192 They know he's capable of being the best in the field and running laps around their 70+ year old candidate. He's a serious threat

I don't see why you all think that women will vote for Warren when so many did not vote for Clinton. I don't think Warren has a chance. She does not come off well on tv, the few times I've seen her.

I hate to break it to you all living in condos overlooking Central Park or San Francisco Bay, but no one is going to vote for a gay man. And as we saw last time, probably not a woman, either. You're just setting yourselves up for devastation.

The only chance is Joe Biden, so you'd better get behind him.

r196 Looks like there's some people in Iowa that will vote for him, not everyone is hung up on his sexuality like you are.

Well, who cares anyway; Michelle Bachmann won Iowa- what's she been doing lately?

Do you mean Cameron Kasky, r192? He doesn’t hate Pete.

R187, Bloomberg's strategy is to ignore the first states and only concentrate on the later, bigger states going into super Tuesday. Talk about pretentious. What an asshole. His strategy is literally to ignore the center of the country when that's what we need to win. Fucking idiot.

[quote]Biden, who has regained the edge in both the poll and our delegate model, is described by most as safe but not exciting.

The recipe for losing the election right there.

[Quote] my god I’m almost a bit taken a back by just how many people absolutely hate Pete on Twitter

I actually like that there's Pete hate - as long as it's by us.

Imagine if we all loved him and showed up in his rallies in our thongs, caftans, and presenting hole. I know you bitches are capable of doing it.

That's the last thing Pete needs in the run up. It would cause massive gay hate and pigeonhole him as the gay candidate, trivializing him.

Keep hatin' bitches.

Russiapublicans don't want Dotard standing next to Pete because he will look stupid. Trump can't use MAGA again because it never happened. And he never drained The Swamp. And The Great Wall of Mexico is still just tumbleweeds. And Trumpcare was a fail. And...

All he can do is take credit for the last gasp of the Obama economy- which will probably be long gone by October.

The Russiapublicans' ship has sailed then, R202. Trump looks stupid standing next to a Christmas tree.

R172, that's what they said about me.

[quote]no one is going to vote for a gay man. And as we saw last time, probably not a woman, either.

As we saw last time? What time was that?

Older black people are mostly social conservatives that will never vote for a homosexual. If he can't get the woke young blacks then he is out of options to capture the minority votes. Why are people not discussing other minority groups who are also socially conservative. Older black mamas and dad's who attend Baptists and Pentecostal churches ain't voting for no damn gay man.

[quote] I hate to break it to you all living in condos overlooking Central Park or San Francisco Bay,

Republicans?

R192, well he came out of no owhere to kick their preferred candidate's ass. Of course they're mad.

There is also a su section that hates h I'll m because he's white. And another that hates him because hes gay.

He unites a lot of hater groups.

[quote]Well, who cares anyway; Michelle Bachmann won Iowa- what's she been doing lately?

She won the Iowa Straw Poll. She came in 6th in the actual primary and quit the next day.

r209 I can't believe people are so lazy they can't even look up those basic facts.

So if he’s the nominee older blacks will refuse to vote for him?

I know older blacks can often be homophobic. But I also know there’s about 10 blacks in the entire country that want Trump to get re-elected.

Blacks strike me as very pragmatic. They weren’t even going to vote for the first black President until they knew he could get white votes. They were going to vote for Hillary because they thought she was a safe bet. And Buttigieg can get Midwestern votes. He’s Christian and that’s a big deal to them.

What if Buttigieg put a black VP on the ticket? Still no?

Literally not ONE vote has been cast yet. Buttigieg is only the LATEST Democrat to be on top of the Iowa poll. Ask Liz Warren, the last one, how quickly things can change.

We have people on this thread already picking his VP. He hasn't won anything yet.

No one is picking his VP; we've learned not to repeat that mistake after Kamala. What posters are doing is pointing out that only 30% of people polled are settled on their candidate. The race is soft and the campaigning in other early states has started in earnest only recently.

Every candidate has work to do and yes, everything could still change. President Amy is a thing that could happen.

Liz Warren is by far the best candidate.

[quote]If Biden loses Iowa, it's over for him. It's an unquestionable knockout punch.

The media and others have been desperately trying to push the narrative that Biden is going to tank. His support has been solid and doesn't appear to be going anywhere. But I guess some of you just keep hoping that if you say it enough that it will magically come true.

[quote]Liz Warren is by far the best candidate.

Maybe in the bizzaro world of the loony progressive wing of the party . Now you want talk about a campaign that's falling apart. Check out Warren's.

Karl Rove just endorsed Corporate Pete.

Pete's killing Biden. Bernie is killing Elizabeth. That's what's happening. We don't need more candidates getting in, we need several to get out. Yang, Tulsi, Bennet,Castro, Booker.Steyer. GTFO. And anyone else who hasn't managed to get on that stage. I mean. Is Delaney still calling himself a candidate? WTF is he?

And we have to really question who's keeping Bernie alive? (No, I mean his candidacy.) Because Bernie cannot win the nomination and the Presidency. And honestly, neither can Pete. Pete isn't going to make it this round. I think he is too Indiana Conservative. He needs to undergo more vetting on his positions and who is supporting him.

Because I don't like him "reaching out to build bridges to the Religious Right." That comment, IMO demonstrates a clear lack of understanding and appreciation of what and who the Religious Right is. Extremists have weaponized religion. Pete is smart enough to know that. I don't trust that "Indiana Perspective." It has not a damned thing to do with him being Gay.

I also worry that at 37, being mayor of South Bend is not enough to make him President. Now. Ask yourselves: He's become wildly popular. Break down why that is so. And a good part of it is the novelty of a Gay man who is just SO SMART. I get sickened by how patronizing some of my straight friends are. I'd love to see us have a Gay PResident. My horse in that race would be Sean Patrick Maloney. Listening to him, watching him in action during these hearings, there is nothing calculating about him.YOu see his passion and his intelligence and his empathy.

I'm convinced that the Republicans are behind some of the outsized responses, including fundraising and social media for guys like Bernie,Elizabeth,Pete.. Mean while Kamala Harris is getting killed by Russian Bots and Politico.Politico has real animosity towards her. This whole thing is like the Medici Court.with everyone sharpening knives for everyone else. Cui bono?

Warren flip flopped on MFA. It was a huge mistake. It make her untrustworthy (or similar) to the moderate who wonder after being so passionate what she's up to and the purists who feel left down she's talking more moderate.

Biden for one term, Pete was VP. Problem solved.

Important words from Barak (via NBC):

Former President Barack Obama, who is loath to speak publicly about internal party politics, felt the need to tell an influential group of donors on Friday night to essentially calm down,while also warning progressives that [bold]the country is "less revolutionary than it is interested in improvement."[/bold]

"Democratic voters and certainly persuadable independents or even moderate Republicans are not driven by the same views that are reflected on certain, you know, left-leaning Twitter feeds or the activist wing of our party," Obama said at the private meeting of the Democracy Alliance donor group at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington.

"That's not a criticism to the activist wing. Their job is to poke and prod and test and inspire and motivate," he continued. "But the candidate's job, whoever it ends up being, is to get elected."

r216 He's not struggling with black people, he's exactly where a newcomer candidate with his name recognition in a crowded field would be with them at this point in the race. Besides, he has barely started campaigning in SC and Nevada. Though I'm sure once he hits those double digits, people will start saying "but they're the wrong kind of double digits!" or "polls can't be trusted!" As evidenced throughout this thread by people dismissing this gold standard of polls.

Also, this just out of Texas...

African American 1st Choice:

Biden 31%

Warren 18%

Harris 8%

Sanders 7%

Buttigieg 6%

Williamson 5%

Yang 3%

Castro 3%

Klobuchar 1%

He's doing as well as Sanders (who ran for president in 2016!) and Harris and twice as well as Castro, who spent the last two weeks bitching about Pete on Twitter, saying he can't capture the black vote LIKE HE CAN. Humiliated in his own state. Notice how Booker isn't even included, btw. So I truly don't understand why these numbers aren't ever brought up when discussing Sanders. Relatively speaking when taking name recognition into account, he's bombing among black people.

[quote]the country is "less revolutionary than it is interested in improvement."

This is the kind of labeling and false antithesis I can't stand from the Democratic establishment. In the case of medical insurance, job security, the social safety nets for retirement etc., the "revolutionary" discussions are ABOUT improvement. Stop talking in abstract terms and talk about jobs and security.

Black people are mostly socially conservative and the thought of a gay man been president is a bridge too far. Why would some of you compare him to Obama. Black voters have a lot in common with obama. One he is black and second he is straight. Black people might actually sit out this election the way things are going.

R222 Castro is such a piece of shit

[quote] Besides, he has barely started campaigning in SC and Nevada.

that's absolutely not true. He has been more of a presence in South Carolina than any of the other candidates. I'm not going to discount his hustle, but to pretend that he doesn't know his issues and isn't hammering in on them is complete bullshit. His laidback persona is just that. He is more ambitious and Type A than any other candidate. What kills me about Pete supporters is that they want to pretend that's he unknown, and that's the reason for his low numbers with minorities, when that's absolutely untrue. People have known about him for months now, even people who don't follow politics especially closely.

Meghan McCain Dismisses Mayor Pete as ‘Sparkly, Shiny Object’. Hmm. Like Obama?

Good news. The right wing GOP is going after him now. Pete has arrived.

So. Just how important is the black vote seeing as they're never going to vote for a gay candidate?

The new SC poll just out has him at 6% and has him SURGING with black voters, polling at a whopping 0%.

The Kenya photo and the fake endorsements for his plan stories are gaining traction to. He will not be the nominee.

Since that's a rather stupid remark to make, R228, we'll treat it as seriously as it deserves and ignore it.

[quote]Why would some of you compare him to Obama.

Because people are rehashing the same arguments that were used against Obama. "American will never vote for a black President! We can't nominate him because that's going to be a sure loss!"

[quote]Black people might actually sit out this election the way things are going.

Uh-huh and pink unicorns might fly out of your butt. Both of these eventualities are equally likely. For you to pretend that black voters will sit out 2020 means that you have to be blind to what has been happening in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

R230. If the party nominates the homosexual then yes. Don't be surprised if black people sit it out in doves. It all depends who is at the top of the ticket. I have a feeling dems will eff it up because of course they are good at it.

R230.you are comparing a black man to a gay man. Nice try. Those two are not even in comparison. We blacks want white liberals like you stop comparing yourselves to us. You and Pete are not a minority. Stop hijacking black struggles to fit your narratives.

He’s an arrogant, inexperienced prick. The last thing we need is another person with no fucking experience sitting in the goddamned White House.

What the Republicans are counting on is disgruntled voters who stay home. Voters who are disappointed because Bernie or Elizabeth didn't get nominated. Voters who are pissed off about Pete not getting the nomination. Voters who wanted Harris or Booker or Castro but they fail to get the nomination. Republican strategists specialize in tactics aimed at suppressing turn out. Negative campaigning and acrimony, scandals, etc. also suppress turnout. They count on people staying home. So lower Black turn out.Lower Latino turnout. Fewer women, and the hard core Left. Step two will be for someone to run 3rd party from the Left. Add in voter fraud, and you have the GOP strategy.

I don't give a flying fuck what the voters in South Carolina think, whether they be black, brown, white, or green. South Carolina is a solid red state that will never EVER go blue in a general election. That shitty state doesn't deserve such a prominent voice in deciding who should be the democratic nominee for president.

What's important is what the African-American voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and other swing states think. Those are the people whose votes are going to actually matter when it comes to the general election.

YOU know, a lot of us invested certain political leanings in Obama that didn't exist. He was way more centrist than we believed he was.

The good news is there are only 1077 voters who will be disappointed by the failure to nominate Harris or Booker or Castro.

Pete has outsider appeal.

Pete works his ass off and has a strong ground game. When this thing goes to the general, Pete would be a force. The black thing is a distraction designed by the media to sell papers and the progressive wing to make Pete look weak. Here's the deal.

If Biden is too old then so is Sanders, but you rarely see that story.

If Pete has a problem with black people then so does Sanders and Warren, but you rarely see that story.

The wacky progressives and their media enablers are gunning for the moderates.

... and the corporations and the 1% are gunning for both r239. Remember the media are all incorporated to make money.

Sanders isn’t a legitimate candidate. His polling numbers are artificially inflated by Russian trolling.

r220, Problem solved? That would be two WHITE men on the ticket, and that would be a hard sell to the Democratic base as well as others in the party. I don't know if you can even get away with two white men on a Democratic ticket anymore in this day and age.

[Quote] two WHITE men on the ticket, and that would be a hard sell to the Democratic base

What is that base? Is it only structured on race?

r243, the Democratic base (and the most loyal Democrats) are African American females.

And I can tell you right now they will not like that ticket.

R235. Black voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other blue purple states are no different from blacks from the south. You think a South Carolina black has nothing in common with a new York black. Blacks are mostly socially conservative regardless of where they live.

R244 See, that's where the problem lies.

The Democratic base the party has frittered away as they got on the corporate bandwagon is labor, women, and minorities. Not just black women or men.

The reason a party that represents the interests of a very small minority (the rich) like the GOP has succeeded in winning the white House more often than the Dems is because they have fractured this traditional base alliance, wrecked unions and turned the working class into disaffected deplorables by appealing to racism, and wrapped themselves in the American flag.

Pete's strength is that he appeals to the abandoned Middle America. His rivals and opponents try to turn this into a race issue as they have little else. He is a gay man who is not running on identity issues.

Black people have been voting for all white tickets forever. A lot of you love to talk out of your asses and claim you know so much about black people and you've never talked to one black person about anything.

That is one of things that annoy me about urban white democrats. You all seem to think that you know everything about everything, but you don't want to listen. You all seem to think because you don't say the N word and you're pro inclusion and diversity that you're not racist and that you understand black people. You don't. In fact, it's almost laughable at how much you don't.

Touche r247. They are all postracial you know, standing up for black people against one of their own white guys. Racism solved and gone!

R234 Pete supporters will turn out and vote for whoever is the nominee. He has cultish followers like any other candidate, but they in no way compare to the blood thirsty vindictive Sanders fanatics. Bernie shouldn't have run again.

r246, Pete won't be winning the nomination much less the general election if he doesn't start appealing more to black voters in the South and elsewhere in the country.

Ask Hillary what it's like to lose a MAJOR part of the Obama coalition that helped him win in 2008 and 2012.

Will black voters come out in droves for Pete? So far he hasn't given them much reason to do so.

[quote]Black voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other blue purple states are no different from blacks from the south.

Wrong.

Star Trek Captain Hikaru Sulu endorses Pete Buttigieg

R252 I love how that 3 minute video says nothing about policies. Just the usual platitudes about “generational change” and unity. Notice how Pete supporters never point to his policies? Typical neoliberal gaslighting.

R253 You Warren & Sanders trolls are all but ensuring Trump gets another 4 years.

I hope you wear that badge of shame with great pride.

Am I crazy to think Trump got what he wanted (Biden moving down, big time)?

Trump wants Warren or Sanders.

He knows they will tank everywhere other than than New York and California and give him a second term.

R235, I agree with your post except for the fact that NV is no longer a swing state but solid Blue. As I've stated before the unions have become so powerful that what they want goes for the entire state.

Assuredly most didn't want our police head to be re-elected post the fiasco of 10/1 investigation. Unions disagreed, got what they wanted. Unions in NV have even more power than the casinos, and that's saying a lot. Compare it to the machine politics in old-time (and still current?) Chicago where people were paid to vote for the desired candidates.

R254 the ones ensuring trump are the ones pushing a 37 year old mayor with zero experience who flip flops on all of his policies who polls at 0% with black people. Talk about depressed turn out for dems if he is the nominee.

[QUOTE] Am I crazy to think Trump got what he wanted (Biden moving down, big time)?

Biden’s not moving down anywhere. He’s right there in the mix. If Buttigieg blocks Liz Warren from winning Iowa, he’ll be doing Biden a big favor. The only one of these candidates in Joe Biden’s way is Liz, and he’d be in serious danger if she won Iowa and New Hampshire. Now it’s looking increasingly like she might not get either one.

Not a "stan" or a "troll" or a "bro." But I just really like Mayor Pete.

It’s fair to assume that anyone who runs for high office must have some degree of healthy narcissism. I do get the sense thatPete feels that he has a true mission and a purpose on this earth to make a positive difference

And to those of you who say he hasn't had enough life experience, or political experience, to qualify for Leader of the Free World--remember, too, that he ALSO hasn't been around long enough to have been corrupted by power, nor to have accrued a jumble of gnarly, fetid skeletons in a walk-in closet in a townhouse in Washington D.C..

The Warren & Sanders fanboys/girls are essentially professional protesters.

They go through life and live to protest and rail against whatever.

They don't care if they lose and indeed losing ensures they can protest some more.

The live to fight the cause and not actually change anything.

Without something to march or mobilise against, they are lost.

That's why they really dont give a rats if their shenanigans cause t Democrats to lose.

You're an idiot, R261. What the hell are you even talking about? You fight until you win.

[quote]"Democratic voters and certainly persuadable independents or even moderate Republicans are not driven by the same views that are reflected on certain, you know, left-leaning Twitter feeds or the activist wing of our party," Obama said at the private meeting of the Democracy Alliance donor group at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington.

Obama wouldn't have been president without the activist wing of the party. Something he forgot five seconds after he won.

[quote]Am I crazy to think Trump got what he wanted (Biden moving down, big time)?

Ukraine and Hunter had the desired effect without even having them do an investigation. People don't want a replay of the situation with Hillary and the server. Pete doesn't have any well-known hint of scandal yet, other than the issue with the black police chief.

Y'all are taking it too seriously since no one caught R231 and commented upon blacks sitting on doves.

R250, if Buttigieg wins the nomination and black voters don't come out for him, they're insane. It's Trump, with his fanning of racism, who has given them cause to do so. They should want, urgently, to vote for anyone who can help them get rid of him. If Trump gets a second term in office, after everything that's happened in the first, it'll stop being funny real fast.

If voters seriously think Pete's issues in Indiana, while I'm not trying to minimise them, mean he thinks the same as Trump and the MAGAs about race, then there's no hope for the country. Thinking "All whites are racist underneath" is a far cry from thinking "All whites are going to encourage Nazi sympathisers to come forward", or "All whites are secretly sympathetic to police state autocracies".

If black men don't vote for him primarily because he's gay, then shame on them for paying forward discrimination. Unfortunately, if he's the nominee, more than just shame will fall on them if they don't support him.

"If black men don't vote for him primarily because he's gay, then shame on them for paying forward discrimination." HALLELUJAH, R265!

I like how the TV pundits are pronouncing his name as 'BOO-duh-judge'. Why not?

His whole campaign is stunning and unprecedented. I'm just enjoying the ride, no expectations.

R262 A prime example why we are doomed.

Would rather go down in flames than lose an ideological debate and vote for who can actually win.

R268 would have supported FDR's opponents every time because he was too radical and his ideas were too big. Couldn't possibly win!

The fact that you have all let the Repugs define what the Democratic party stands for is sickening. The fact that you are also ignorant of that fact is even worse. Obama would have been a much better president if he didn't sit his ass in the middle and stay there for eight years. Have you even bothered to pay attention to the last three Democrats to win the presidency? It's voter passion that puts Democrats in the White House. Centrist milquetoast loses for the Democrats every single fucking time.

R251. Is the white liberal that knows black people than they know themselves. Speak for us whitey. West and East coast blacks can be just as religious as southern blacks.

R265. Black people don't owe you and Pete shit. We care about our self interests and we are not going to vote for some cornfield white candidate with problematic racial problems. We are not captain save a ho.

The fact that you have all let the Repugs define what the Democratic party stands for is sickening.... Right on r269

I'm only voting for a woman for president. I will not vote for another white man.

[quote] if Buttigieg wins the nomination and black voters don't come out for him, they're insane.

We already learned in 2016 that you can't shame people into voting "correctly". People voted against their own interests across the board that year. I suspect most black people will grudgingly vote for him if he is the nominee. But I am completely convinced that his type of charisma is only received well by other cornball whites like him. There's a reason there's no enthusiasm for him among minorities.

R269, you're wrong. Your definition is too narrow or warped to match your desire. The times define what the Democratic Party stands for, not the Republicans. In the main, the majority has never been more prosperous than they are at present. The country doesn't need FDR. It's why Obama said American seek improvement, not reinvention. It's why, of all the candidates who could have surged in Iowa, it is telling that it is the moderate, centrist Pete Buttigieg who has surged. When FDR was nominated and elected, the world was falling apart. That's the thing about majorities... their sentiment carries the day. In CNN's late August poll, 65% of respondents said the current economic conditions were good. 65% isn't low. It's always the economy, stupid.

Americans cherish the notion/myth of self reliance. So as out of whack as that view of prosperity seems relative to Washington right now, that is most people's experience. Things are OK economically. That's the divide. It's well established voters don't like the dysfunction in Washington and deplore Congress but they keep re-electing the status quo because economics matter, not politics in real life. Washington isn't real life. Twitter isn't real life. DL isn't real life.

I agree voter passion is what gets Democrats elected because Republicans, paradoxically, are always viewed as better managers of the economy. So Democrats get elected in spite of themselves. But no hard progressive Democrat has ever been elected. The passion isn't for revolution and you're kidding yourself if you think so, though obviously, personally, you want it very much. Not gonna happen, bud. Sorry.

R274. Nope. It will be black people staying home and few voting Republican, especially black men.

R276 good to know so one can plan accordingly.

R275, Agreed. Frustrated friend in AR who'd actually love Mayor Pete's medical plan coverage options, as would her solid Red state living "deplorable" neighbors and relatives, knows that the 8 new factories in the general area mean everyone is still aggressively pro-Trump.

By the way they're also wary of anyone who wants to raise the minimum wage. Rumors of it caused the local Walmart to cut employees' hours and to try out self-checkout (which thankfully failed miserably.)

R276, Honestly do you think Blacks and especially Black women would vote for Mayor Pete IF he chose a Black VP? I'm speaking of one that has a proven record of making dramatic improvements in their minority community and not just railing against Trump.

Further is there anything a POTUS can do on a national level to combat incidents of Black brutality by LE? Or to deal with communities who lack clean water? I'd respect a candidate who outlines a plan to deal with homelessness particularly of veterans and the severely mentally ill.

Volunteer advocates, usually who are ex-alcoholics and ex-drug addicts, have instituted workable low and even no-cost programs in various cities who've gotten hundreds of formerly homeless working like in the restaurant industry and regular day labor. These programs need to go national.

R279. The person at the top of the ticket matters more to us blacks. Picking a black vp won't sway us because it is straight pandering.

I'm white, so I don't know, but it does strike me as kind of condescending that people say the ticket has to be this or that to get responsible citizens to vote. In the end, choices are made between people proposing to lead the country. Their ideas matter. Would that many people stay home because the composition of the ticket doesn't suit them? I have more faith in people than that, in the end. But maybe I am wrong.

If color is so important, why did all those white people vote for Obama?

R282, As I've said before on GLP, Obama lucked out in running against 2 disliked Republican opponents. Many Christians view LDS as a cult and therefore wouldn't ever vote for Romney. Likewise John McCain was equally hated, labeled a traitor especially my vets.

Obama's advisers were savvy enough to present him as similar to those Black actors who made it in Hollywood despite ongoing racism. Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington et al are low-key, self-effacing in interviews, trim & handsome, clean-cut (yes that matters to some) and very well-mannered and "classy." Casual but Conservative in his style of dress many racists could claim that after all Obama was raised by Whites and was Mixed rather than "Black."

For a woman to win she's have to also be the reverse of what misogynist men don't like about the opposite sex as well as running against hated candidates. Many hate Trump but must grudgingly admit the economy and employment rates are favorable. Also America is not directly at war.

I can’t even imagine what a woman would have to be, except goodlooking, wear skirts and look like Sarah Palin (hopefully less slutty), and look young for her age. The women who are really qualified, like Nancy Pelosi, are endlessly vilified, often about their appearance or some non-relevant issue.

The Pod Save America guys are coming to accept that the public option might be the way to go. They report that the majority of Dems prefer the public option over MFA. 11/18/19 podcast, around 55:00.

A Pete supporter - before you ask, a person of color - made this chart and posted it on Reddit.

[quote]Relationship Between Name ID and First Choice

[quote]I looked at polling data from the last two months in the early states where favorability numbers were included. I set out on this task looking to analyze the racial favorability breakdown as well, but I was only able to see that for the SC poll out of Quinnipiac.

It's almost as if there was a trend line there... But no, it must be because black people in SC are so very different to the rest of the electorate and they don't support him not because they're still unfamiliar with him, but because they dislike his policies and/or him as a person... both of which they can't possibly know... because they've never heard of him. He's at 60% unfamiliarity among black voters in SC per the latest poll, by the way.

Hopefully this puts the low polling among black voters narrative to rest. Also hoping they ask the two other white candidate(s) with near universal Name ID why they're polling so low with them instead. Won't hold my breath, though.

R286. It has nothing to do with that. We blacks do not fuck with him. It is that simple and we already know who he is and we don't like him and his problematic racial issues.

Cunt, as if you speak for all black people. You're the idiot who said there's no difference between northern, southern or western black people.

Hang it up.

R288. Bitch why are you butting into black people business since you are probably not black. Have several seat somewhere. What do you know about black people. Stay in your lane whitey. By the way why are you stalking me. I got you bothered, at least I know I am on your mind.

Pete will win with or without black votes.

R288, if you think R287 is black then I've got this great bridge in New York to sell you. Real cheap.

r290 is delusional.

And clearly white.

R291. How do you know I am not black. Whitey. A white liberal telling a black woman she is not black. Bitch seat somewhere.

And with that post at R293 you just proved that you are anything but a black woman.

R294. You are anything but a straight man. Bitch please.

R284, Check out 1/2 Italian, 1/2 Latinx lawyer, happily married lawyer & NV legislator Cortez-Mastos. Dresses professionally but feminine, and yes I know that matters to some voters.

R284, Gorgeous (especially when she was just elected to CA public office but still extremely attractive) public speaker and lawyer, always elegant and refined, ideal Miss America-type, heard her speak publicly and was totally blown away, happily married (and yes that's important to many voters.)

[quote]If the party nominates the homosexual then yes. Don't be surprised if black people sit it out in doves. It all depends who is at the top of the ticket. I have a feeling dems will eff it up because of course they are good at it.

Thank you for confirming that you have no idea what you're talking about and are just randomly making up shit. I don't see any reason to pretend that this drivel is anything but the nonsense it is.

[quote]R230.you are comparing a black man to a gay man. Nice try.

And thank you for confirming that you cannot read. I did not compare Obama to Buttigieg, moron. I said that the arguments used about each of them as candidates was the same, a statement that happens to be entirely true. Feel free to come back when you've learned to read.

[quote]Obama lucked out in running against 2 disliked Republican opponents.

And the Democratic candidate in 2020 will be running against Trump.

Pfft, us gays have been votin' for straights for a 100+ years without a fuss despite the discrimination.

And now the blacks are gonna be precious about votin' for a whitey.

Get over yourselves!

R299, You need to get out more and talk to flyovers. Even those who despise Trump's personality must grudgingly admit the US is not at war, unemployment is down especially among minorities, and in certain locales there are more jobs available. Please read the following 2 statements taken from solid GOP voters:

Pro-Republican forums were filled with arguments calling McCain a vile piece of shit, the worst traitor of the Viet Nam War that makes Jane Fonda's antics at the time look like a saint, etc when he was challenging Obama. There were cheers when he died with many claiming he belonged in the worst version of Hell for what he did as a POW.

Romney is still being called out on Conservative forums as related to pedophiles and anti-Americans who escaped to Mexico and Canada so that they can avoid US Laws re raping multiple young girls. Christians and Catholics detest anyone associated with even the mainstream LDS. Romney's ties to corrupt organizations who screwed countless hard workers out of their rightful pensions is also still regularly condemned.

R299, Many of the above voted for Obama as a protest vote. Independents followed suit. In sum the hatred of Trump among Republicans and Independents does not at all compare to that of McCain and Romney which is still clearly evident today. In other words they don't pray that Trump burns in Hell when he dies no matter how incompetent at times he may appear.

R298. Feel free to seek therapy for your anger. Pete bitches seem angry and bothered by us blacks lately.

R300. What do you want, a trophy for participating in uplifting heterosexuals. Bitch have a seat somewhere. Straight people don't owe you shit.

Pete Buttigieg will take the stage at Wednesday’s debate as a serious threat to the top Democratic presidential candidates for the first time. And that makes the debate a serious threat for him.

For your reading pleasure...

I am so tired of African Americans proclaiming they are in charge of choosing the candidate.

If they spent nearly as much time supporting their candidates as they did attempting to dunk on Mayor Pete, then maybe Kampala might be polling above 1%. And amazing how silent they are on Biden’s latest gaffe on pot being a gateway drug.

The bizarre vacuum Black Twitter has is astounding. Good thing real life does not reflect Twitter and well nominate someone who has a chance to steal away moderates and disgusted Republicans.

I am that capital of Uganda!

I guess a bunch in here demand The White House must be The Black House.

[quote]I am so tired of African Americans proclaiming they are in charge of choosing the candidate.

You are an absolute moron. One, because of that statement and two, because you think black twitter has any sway in the black community. And Biden's so-called gaffe as you call it about weed is held by quite a few people.

But again we see what you all doing. You're both racist and homophobic and you are just trying to pit those two groups against each other for your own amusement.

Oh good, it was bound to happen sooner or later...

here come the racists!

Inverted racism.

All the whites are getting ATTACKED!

This reductivism to race is boring.

Many middle class democrats who make over $60,000 a year see the writing on the wall with Warren (and of course Sanders). We sill see our taxes go up to pay for the "everything for free", except we will get nothing for free. I live in NY and pay very high taxes and do so willingly to see people receive health care (ONE THIRD of NYers are on Medicaid - thus get free health care) as well as many other things that improve quality of life.

Meanwhile, the only insurance plans available on the NY ACA Marketplace are high-priced Medicaid HMO's (there are NO PPO's) that offer extremely limited provider/hospital coverage. I pay $1100 a month for a "top" plan with $45 copays for everything. My plan is essentially a Medicaid plan that I have to pay a lot of money for. If I get cancer, I will never get to go to Sloan Kettering or NYU...I will have to settle for the crappy hospital in my mid Hudson community.

A growing number of Democratic (solid) middle class are coming to realize that Warrens and Sanders will be ruinous for us. I have no doubts that "Medicare for all" will see the middle class paying extra fees and other copays and taxes to subsidize care for others.

This is why Buttigieg is coming out on top. He will be able to lead us out of the wasteland Trump has created, but will not crush the middle classes with tax increases.

Many middle class democrats who make over $60,000 a year see the writing on the wall with Warren (and of course Sanders).

Is that their figure? I'd tie both living minimum wage and high tax brackets to where people live.

I get the impression that the issue is that white liberals are being condescending in pushing the idea that if there isn't a black candidate on the ticket, black voters are generally a bunch of spoiled brats who will stay home while holding their noses in defiance in November.

R314 Liberals are sheep in wolves clothing. They just follow corporate media and their black voter click bait on behalf of the GOP.

Can we retire this "holding my nose and voting" cliche please

[quote]Many middle class democrats who make over $60,000 a year see the writing on the wall with Warren (and of course Sanders). We sill see our taxes go up to pay for the "everything for free", except we will get nothing for free.

Absolute bullshit. Stop swallowing Republican talking points. They're hurting your brain.

There was another Marquette university poll of Wisconsin today that showed the top four Democrats all losing to trump in Wisconsin. Same poll last month had the top four beating him. That was discouraging to see today.

r318, it was predicted that the impeachment drama would lead to this.

Oh, please. It's way too soon to determine what impact the impeachment hearings will have on the election. Right now, that Marquette poll is an outlier. Come back in a month or two after we've had quite a few more polls, then we can talk impeachment impact.

Oh and I just saw that the SJWs have been going after Mayor Pete for calling out SJWs for being, well, SJWs.

As if that is a negative. Nobody likes SJWs. Well, maybe 2% on the far left. And half of them won’t even vote.

So, does a candidate appeal to the 1% of the population or the 70% that can be reached? (Not counting the core Trumpers as they will never be reachable).

The most embarrassing moment was when Booker reminded us he was a Rhodes Scholar.

[Quote] Mayor Pete for calling out SJWs for being, well, SJWs.

Pete is emphatically not doing the identity politics thing. Very smart. It's irrelevant to go after him for black support or lack thereof. NOT that he's against it. Just not what constitutes his platform.

Guess who polls the best among the non-whites in Iowa? Though I'm sure someone will soon chime in to say that those highly-educated Asian Americans don't really count...

Pete will knock out Biden. The rest of the candidates and whoever becomes the nominee should thank him.

This f-ing clowncar has got to stop. Whoever is promoting this dozen-people-onstage shit is a saboteur (the fact that Tulsi is still there should be a hint). There should only be 3 or 4 candidates discussing things in depth by now.

If they don't clear that stage the Democrats are doomed.

R325. You really are drinking your own koolaid. How does a 0 percenter with blacks top Biden.

Looks like Yang and Amy might make it again just barely. Unless I'm missing something Tulsi, Booker, Harris and Steyer not so much.

Who in their right minds holds a debate DECEMBER 19th? Why not Christmas Day? A lot of people aren't at work that day.

[quote]How does a 0 percenter with blacks top Biden.

Biden has to win Iowa or New Hampshire. If he loses both, it doesn't matter how many African-Americans are for him elsewhere. Biden and his people will pull the plug for the sake of the party and the eventual nominee.

If Pete doesn't do better with blacks, his campaign will die in the South.

It's that simple.

R330 get real. Iowa and NH will be irrelevant this cycle. Biden will clean up the south and on Super Tuesday and will go to the convention with the most delegates. He will be the nominee.

[quote]Iowa and NH will be irrelevant this cycle

That's impossible.

r330, BIll Clinton didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire and he went on to win not only the nomination, but the presidency as well.

And guess what? He had STRONG black support; especially in the South.

But Bill had Hillary and a grateful nation elected him so DL would have a deity.

R323: It's very relevant as it means he's not winning. You Pete suckers need to deal with this. And accept it.

At this point I don't even see the utility of having debates in December. It's not like there is that much difference in these candidates. I'm talking the serious candidates not the outliers. I think between the impeachment hearings this month, and the debate, people are ready to tune out and deal with the holidays. Then Iowa happens in January so what's the point.

I guess a lot of people feel like there's a stigma in not making it to the debate stage, and yeah, it is not helpful, but you can still get publicity and you can still campaign. And Social Media is not expensive. If you have a good tech team, you can market on Social Media and maintain a presence even if you don't make the debates.

Iowa is Feb. 3rd this time, so the January debate is one last time for them to all be together. Looking less like Yang will be able to pull off 4% in four polls, but we'll see. December is likely Kam and Amy's last hurrah. January will likely be down to four or five people without all the extraneous noise of Tulsi's bizarre individual attacks on those she sees as "threats" or Yang's trying to shoehorn his one-note message into other questions.

All punditry or analysis is no more than a rationalization for the candidates you like or dislike. A parlourgame.

[Quote] At this point I don't even see the utility of having debates in December.

Do they even draw viewers. I've never watched one.

r340, the one this past week drew the lowest ratings yet.

Who cooked up this idea of a debate per month? Seems a little game show/reality TV to me, in retrospect.

Love this comment. 🔥

R343. Who cares.

r344 Erm, you do, since you decided to take the time to post a reply? So it obviously elicited a reaction in you.

A history lesson...

[quote]In 2004 just before the Iowa caucus, John Kerry polled at 1% with black voters nationally. After Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, he surged to 34% with black voters in South Carolina.

Some of these people need to step aside.

R346, But he's NOT Obam....er, I mean John Kerry!

r346, do not use candidates who lost in the general as examples please.

If black men are homophobic does it mean they are closet gays? In consistency with DL wisdom.

R350, maybe that can be the campaign message. If black men don't vote for Pete, they are gay! Sure winner.

It is a bit frustrating that one is not supposed to ever generalize about black people as a group, but is supposed to ignore the fact that they seem to vote monolithically.

Interesting national poll from Emerson. I think Yang will be next to get a hype bump similar to Pete's. As the field winnows, it's harder for the media to ignore him.

Yang has his Yang Gang niche, and that's it.

Had to unfollow another black Twitter thought leader who posted that Pete won’t win without black women.

Let’s see, black women represent 12% of the population. Which means that 88% of the population is not.

I think we’ll be okay without you. Good luck with the new Administration that you fought so hard against.

Blacks are 24% of primary voters and Black women show up so don't discount their support. He needs it.

I’m sick to death of the Dem primaries, wasting democratic donor cash that we need to have consolodated to beat the rethugs. Whittle down to four and lets make a fucking choice please! #BlueNoMatterWho but lets make an f-ing decision!

I’m sick to death of the Dem primaries, wasting democratic donor cash that we need to have consolodated to beat the rethugs. Whittle down to four and lets make a fucking choice please! #BlueNoMatterWho but lets make an f-ing decision!

R356. He is a gay white male who has no appeal to black women. Maybe if he was straight and hot we might consider him

Just 70 days to the Iowa caucuses (Feb 3).