This years Oscars seems like it’s going to be a tight competition.

how can hustlers with that pig JLO be in contention?????? good god

Damn, what an astonishingly weak year. Do we have any end of the year surprises that have yet to come out?

Who knows r1.

The big three right now are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Marriage Story for BP.

Renee, ScarJo, and Charlize will probably end up competing for best actress.

Adam Driver vs Robert Deniro for best actor.

Renee for Best Actress, Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor. I don't think anyone could beat them.

Joaquin in Joker was a legendary performance and this would be his fourth nod. I don’t see how he doesn’t win.

Does Robert DeNiro really need yet ANOTHER Oscar? He’s been phoning in performances for the last 10-15 years.

Octavia Spencer should be nominated for “Luce” by the way. She’s had a banner year this year.

I loved Octavia in “MA”

Parasite was quite good. It won the Palme D'or.

Parasite

Scorsese for director, based on masterpiece-level reviews.

For what, R11? TIA

The Irishman r12, coming to Netflix this Nov. If he surprised if the Oscars rewarded a Netflix movie.

^ Why? Roma won an Oscar.

Gaga really thought she was going to win every award in sight last year.

God had other plans.

Hey OP, SAY IT FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK

[Quote] is like salt: use sparingly

Someone cooks bland food...

No way in hell with Efron get anything. His performance isn't that difficult and he's the kind of pretty boy cream puff the Academy loves to hate.

Winning an Oscar is the death knell for most people, so i have mixed emotions for Joaquin's nomination. On one hand I want him to be honored like he should be for that heart wrenching performance in front of his peers, but on the other hand I want him to continue to work. But he may not win at all because Woke Hollywood is pissed off at him for humanizing the angry white male.

Renee is a shoe in

Parasite - Demi Moore - 1982 in 3D!

I really don't see The Irishman getting a lot of awards. It's Netflix which much of Hollywood resents for "stealing" talent. I think the academy will nominate Scorsese because of what he accomplished, though.

Couldn't care less. I love the movies- but the awards shows and all the blather like it's winning a Nobel Prize? Not. Over time the Oscars a picture has won or the number of awards Meryl has is forgotten. What lasts and has nothing to do with the silly competition are the movies and performances.

"Roma" received tons of oscar nominations and won 3 r21. This idea that the academy will ignore Netflix movies doesn't seem to have a real basis.

[quote]’d like to see Zac Efron rewarded for EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL & VILE but he’ll probably be passed over for Joaquin Phoenix’s JOKER

Don't know if Netflix did the required theatrical run they have done for other films like "Roma"and just premiered it online.

Yes r18. OP is delusional to think Efron is the radar for Best Actor. He is not.

[quote]Adam Driver vs Robert Deniro for best actor.

It’s Joaquin’s year. Driver is young and will have other chances, plus he doesn’t campaign. Pacino is said to be the standout in The Irishman and De Niro’s been rewarded plenty. Renee vs Scarlett, with a Charlize spoiler. Pacino vs Pitt in supporting. Dern for supporting actress. Bong Joon-ho for director. No idea on picture.

We'll see r26. Right now the reviews we have for "Marriage Story" are universal raves. And it's going to appeal to voters more, it's just a movie about normal people whose marriage is falling apart. "Real cinema" rather than a comic book movie, that's going to be a mark against Phoenix, Scorsese isn't the only member of the academy who thinks comic book movies aren't real movies.

Not saying Phoenix can't win, I just don't see it as a slam dunk right now.

Ugh I hate that Scarlett Hoehanssen is probably going to be nominated for Marriage Story

R18 Efron hasn't been pretty in a long time

My dyslexia!!

[quote]Ugh I hate that Scarlett Hoehanssen is probably going to be nominated for Marriage Story

She'll definitely get a nomination, but I still suspect the Oscar is Renee's to lose.

J.Lo's Oscar Buzz has dried up.

Please god don’t let Scarlett Johannsen be even NOMINATED for anything. She’s the worst actress in Hollywood.

R33 that's quite an exaggeration. I'm not a big fan but theres a lot worse out there. And theres been worse actresses nominated.

R34 Yeah, so? You can a bad actress OR a rape apologist, but not both at the same time. Fartlett is both!

R22 well said.

Currently "Marriage Story" is the best reviewed movie of the year. If these type of reviews hold up it is going to be a major player come awards season.

So yeah, get ready to see a lot of ScarJo.

And the Oscar goes to …………..

How bizarre that Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix could both win Oscars for playing the Joker.

Not Hamlet, or King Lear, but the fucking Joker.

Heath was way better than Joaquin.

Exactly. Some of the best actors and actresses have never even won an Oscar. And some of the worst have one.

It's not a barometer of talent.

Heath and Joaquin are doing different things. They're directed differently, and their characters are different... I get comparing them, but they're both exceptional performances for different reasons.

[quote]J.Lo's Oscar Buzz has dried up.

I don't know that it's dried up... I'd say that she definitely started the Supporting Actress conversation the way Brad Pitt started the Supporting Actor one when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood dropped. Brad's buzz has lasted, and that film should receive many nominations. I don't think Jennifer's gonna have it as easy as Brad, and we'll definitely be seeing more of her during the campaign. She'll show up for Globes for sure, extending her awards presence... and she might even win there, but there's more than enough time for someone else to siphon some of her buzz.

[quote]Currently "Marriage Story" is the best reviewed movie of the year. If these type of reviews hold up it is going to be a major player come awards season.

Yeah!

Who was Noah Baumbach acquitted of raping?

Yeah I still expect JLo will get one of the nominations for supporting actress

R43 I thought The Birth of a Nation was hyped until people/critics actually saw it and reviews weren't that great.

Right r46. That's how it goes. These movies have a lot of buzz surrounding them...until people start actually watching it. And then the buzz deflates.

Finn Wittrock is getting a nomination for Judy.

I really think that Bombshell will dominate the acting noms.

[quote]Finn Wittrock is getting a nomination for Judy.

You're the first person I've seen even talk about him. You letting your dick make the predictions?

I saw Jojo Rabbit tonight. Aside from a couple of tonal complaints, I thought it was a pretty spectacular film. Hilarious throughout, and truly moving with wonderful performances that feel so vibrant. Both kids at the center of the love story are compelling to watch together and they've got a lot of chemistry. Taika did a great job writing, directing, and acting in the film. The Wes Anderson influence is definitely present, as it was in Hunt for the Wilderpeople, but the comparisons are more sonic and visual. I think Waititi's sense of humor is far zanier.

Finally, I gotta shout out Scarlett Johansson who... God... she's fucking magnetic. I've never been so excited to watch what decision she'd make next. She's never struck me as that type of performer before, but Taika's given her so much material and opportunity to shine here. I have no idea whether she'd be able to pull a double nomination for this and Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit features some of her finest work. Damn she's good.

Will Nicole and Margot be nominated for supporting for Bombshell?

[quote]I saw Jojo Rabbit tonight.

I am really looking forward to seeing it!

#OscarsSoRigged

Yeah I am looking forward to Jojo Rabbit as well, I am a fan of Taika Waititi's sense of humor.

What are the problems with ScarJo? All reviews have been raves. Some are saying it's the best thing she's ever done. Wish they are giving a longer release in theaters.

Netflix is putting Marriage Story in theaters for a full month, it's going to be the longest theatrical release they've done.

Meryl Streep will win for THE PROM. It's being released in theaters before it premieres on Netflix, just like ROMA was.

Er, The Prom is just going into production now r56.

I assume you mean The Laundromat

I lost faith in the Oscars when Gravity was nominated for Best picture

Calling the race "tight" is misogynistic!!

[quote]I lost faith in the Oscars when Gravity was nominated for Best picture

Loved "Gravity", now that ridiculous "Lord Of Rings" shitfest is another story.

R26 DeNiro hasn’t won a major award in nearly 40 years so you don’t know what you’re talking about.

[quote]Loved "Gravity", now that ridiculous "Lord Of Rings" shitfest is another story.

Why are you going after films that were actually trying to do something different? Films like The Reader and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are worth more of your ire than those films.

Competition is unfair and must be banned! Where's my participation trophy?!?!?!

[quote]DeNiro hasn’t won a major award in nearly 40 years so you don’t know what you’re talking about.

Lol. He has two Oscars, who cares that the last one was in 1980– does he need more? If he hadn’t spent the last decade or so doing dreck like the Fockers movies and Dirty Grandpa, he might have a higher nomination count. He did get in for SLP just 7 years ago.

What it that long ago that Jennifer Whorence got her undeserved Oscar for SLP? DAMN I'm getting old.

R65 did Hepburn NEED a fourth Oscar or Day Lewis, Bergman, or Streep NEED a third? No. At some point it’s just icing on the cake. All of these actors, it’s not as if another Oscar created new work opportunities for them that they wouldn’t be getting already. No dispute, DeNiro has done a ton of shit films for about 20 years for the money. But he’s still a good actor when given the right script. I can see him winning a third because he still has industry respect and is an icon. Maybe not for the Irishman but we will see.

Joaquin Phoenix is obviously going to win anyway.

Saw The Lighthouse last night. Pretty singular cinematic experience. The cinematography is so dramatic and beautifully lit, and the camera moves in a way that amplifies the fable's Lovecraftian atmosphere. From this and what I've seen of The Witch, it's clear that Robert Eggers has an affinity for the terrors of the past, and the research he puts into his films is admirable. One of the strongest aspects of this picture, aside from its visual splendor, is the use of language. It's so florid, dense and period specific, and the actors do a great job delivering it.

I'll get Robert Pattinson out of the way by saying that this is probably his most committed performance. You can see him stretching himself... really digging into the character, and crafting a performance that demands you take him seriously as an actor. It's not really as self-conscious as I'm making it sound, but you can tell that Pattinson, like DiCaprio, is on screen to prove that he's more than his past. Every once in a while it's apparent that he's not as comfortable with the language or the accent, but he's impressive nonetheless. It's also the hottest he's ever been on screen.

The star of this motherfucker is Willem Dafoe though. Honestly, I'd be surprised if I see a better Supporting Actor performance this year... hell... I'd be surprised if I see a better performance in general. The man so effortlessly grounds what could have easily come across as broad caricature. He's asked to do so much, and he does it without breaking a sweat. It really is astounding, and if he's not nominated it'll be a travesty, but the Academy's had a hard on for him as of late, so I think a nom's safe. In a just world the Oscar would already be his.

Don't know if it'll be the Academy's bag though. I can see it getting nominated for Best Supporting Actor and Best Cinematography. If they really love the movie, they could go for Original Screenplay and possibly Best Actor, but it really is an aggressively strange film. Entertaining... captivating, but maybe too confounding for their tastes?

Robert Pattinson Really Got Into His ‘Ferocious Masturbation Scene’ In ‘The Lighthouse’

Of all the things to talk about with this film, Pattinson's masturbation scene isn't one of them... I mean... it's a key part of the film, sure, but there are way more compelling aspects of the picture to discuss.

Joker has already done $600 million worldwide in 2 weeks. He's winning the Oscar, folks.

Rami's win last year was due to the box-office success of the movie as much as it was his performance. It's the same situation with Phoenix.

It's all based on who you are competing with. Rami won in a pretty weak year, we will see what is the reaction to the other contenders coming. None of their project have opened to a lot of audience yet. The oscar season is still in a very early point.

Pattison has never been nominated for an Oscar right? He’s done pretty indie work post Twilight.

[quote] Joker has already done $600 million worldwide in 2 weeks. He's winning the Oscar, folks. Rami's win last year was due to the box-office success of the movie as much as it was his performance. It's the same situation with Phoenix.

Dolemite is coming!

R75 It looks like shit from the poster alone. Pass!!

R73 I think Phoenix will probably pull it off. It’ll be his fourth nomination. It’s shaping up to be a weak year I think, but even in a stronger year it would win.

I think he’ll win too r77, but lead actor is absolutely stacked this year. Phoenix, Driver, DeNiro, DiCaprio, Banderas, Pryce, Bale, Damon Murphy— just off the top of my head.

Joker will surpass $700 million tomorrow. Hollywood is so much about money nowadays that it's going to be hard for anyone to beat Phoenix.

Your Guide to This Oscar Season’s Best Actor Bloodbath:

Adam Driver is such a one-note actor.

I think Adam Driver is a terrible actor. I have never understood the praise for him. His nomination last year was completely unwarranted, especially when there were so many other supporting actor candidates who were way better that were left off.

Sometimes actors get swept up in a film's award wave

Yeah, after watching BlacKkKlansman I was kind of perplexed as to why he was nominated... and I fucking love the guy. I think it had more to do with the fact that the Academy likes Adam, and they want to recognize him, and that was the most high profile opportunity they'd been given up to that point. Seems like Marriage Story gives him more to work with.

Martin Scorsese thinks Adam Driver is the best actor of his generation.

Scorsese hasn't made a decent movie since Casino, and only because it was basically Goodfellas Pt 2.

R86 Casino's not even that great... and he's made better films before and since.

If Willem Dafoe gets nominated for a third year in a row (for The Lighthouse), I think there’s a strong possibility of a win for him. Are people really clamoring to give Brad Pitt an Oscar?

Hopefully he'll finally deserve the nomination. His last two were ridiculous.

I'm the guy who saw The Lighthouse and gushed about it earlier. Willem Dafoe's performance is an all timer. You're watching an actor at the peak of his craft here. I love Brad Pitt in Hollywood, and it was fun to imagine a reality wherein he wins an acting Oscar for a role that harnesses everything we love about him, but after seeing Willem, I think it'd be a joke if he lost. Pitt has the edge in that he's a movie star, he's got a good awards season narrative, and Hollywood will appeal to the Academy more than The Lighthouse, but Willem's operating on an entirely different performative level.

I agree. I am very surprised of talk abut Pitt being nominated, as well as the movie. When OUATIH was released, I remember the reviews were good, but not Oscar candidates. I laugh at Hollywood Reporter's list of possible nominees, citing movies that haven't been released yet. I think it was couple of years ago when they were touting that Warren Beatty bomb, Rules Don't Apply. When it opened , it got lousy reviews and disappeared off the list.

Hollywood had Oscar buzz the moment it released. It probably started sooner. Granted, it might depend on what film discussion circles you're in, but people were predicting Hollywood that release weekend. Pitt especially.

I'm okay with the buzz, but what baffles me is Margot Robbie's buzz for the film. Seems minimal at this point, but that people were talking about nominating that sweet blip of a performance was bizarre. I've heard great things about her in Bombshell though.

Speaking off... y'all hearing about the positive buzz surrounding Bombshell? I thought it'd be another one of Roach's elevated TV movies a la Trumbo, but it actually looks like a contender. Plenty of strong buzz for Theron as Megyn.

I thought it was noteworthy that the early reactions singled out the performances more than the movie itself r92.

[Quote] I love Brad Pitt in Hollywood, and it was fun to imagine a reality wherein he wins an acting Oscar for a role that harnesses everything we love about him

That's the thing. Brad Pitt is Mr. Hollywood, he is a star of the industry who finally has this role where he is able to give the best performance of his career. I think a lot of people are going to want to vote for him.

Oh is it that time of year again? Already? I've been so busy.

No one's talking about your performance in The Laundromat, M, so you won't be needed this season.

I'm still being considered for my supporting turn in Mary Poppins Returns from LAST YEAR, G, dear. That's how powerful I am. I transcend years.

{quote]It’s Joaquin’s year. Driver is young and will have other chances, plus he doesn’t campaign. Pacino is said to be the standout in The Irishman and De Niro’s been rewarded plenty. Renee vs Scarlett, with a Charlize spoiler. Pacino vs Pitt in supporting. Dern for supporting actress. Bong Joon-ho for director. No idea on picture.

Yes The Joker's made huge $ but the movie and performance are still controversial and I wonder if this hurts Joaquin's chances to win. A nom is in the bag. De Niro has also courted a shit-load of controversy recently, he's used ever pitstop on the movie's pr tour to bash Trump like crazy, and while many agree with his sentiments the Academy (the remaining majority old white members) HATE controversy in their nominees. Even the liberal ones. I wonder if this will hurt him in a stacked category. Like others have said, Dolemite has yet to premiere and Murphy will be campaigning, he is in the running for that 5th slot.

I can't see ScarJo winning outright, nommed yes. It will be Renee vs Charlize. Pitt vs Defoe for Supporting, Dern for BSA unless someone else comes into play later. Scorsese for director.

[quote]It’s Joaquin’s year. Driver is young and will have other chances, plus he doesn’t campaign. Pacino is said to be the standout in The Irishman and De Niro’s been rewarded plenty. Renee vs Scarlett, with a Charlize spoiler. Pacino vs Pitt in supporting. Dern for supporting actress. Bong Joon-ho for director. No idea on picture.

Yes The Joker's made huge $ but the movie and performance are still controversial and I wonder if this hurts Joaquin's chances to win. A nom is in the bag. De Niro has also courted a shit-load of controversy recently, he's used ever pitstop on the movie's pr tour to bash Trump like crazy, and while many agree with his sentiments the Academy (the remaining majority old white members) HATE controversy in their nominees. Even the liberal ones. I wonder if this will hurt him in a stacked category. Like others have said, Dolemite has yet to premiere and Murphy will be campaigning, he is in the running for that 5th slot.

I can't see ScarJo winning outright, nommed yes. It will be Renee vs Charlize. Pitt vs Defoe for Supporting, Dern for BSA unless someone else comes into play later. Scorsese for director.

I've never liked Bong Joon-Ho's films. I don't get the hype about him. I haven't seen Parasite yet but I've seen enough to know it's probably being wildly overpraised.

Parasite's actually been torrentable online for a while... at least that's how I saw it.

I've also seen, an enjoyed, Snowpiercer, but I can't say I've seen enough of his films to have much of a relationship with him. Parasite, however, is an expertly crafted film. Every shot feels so meticulous and intentional, and the plot unfolds in clever and surprising ways. All of the performances are fantastic, and the climax is quite thrilling.

That being said, the critics with a hard on for this film have been going on about its commentary on class, and I'd like to hear what they're getting at when they say that. If anyone else here has seen it I'd like to hear your take.

I made it through Mother and thought it was just okay. I was so bored by Snowpiercer that I turned it off halfway through. I have no memory of Okja, which probably tells you how I felt about it.

I'll watch Parasite when I get my screener. They have been super slow in sending them out this year. We got The Secret Life of Pets 2 last week and that's been it. I need to go check my mailbox today to see if anything came in over the weekend.

R102, which guild are you in?

Lollipop.

[quote]but what baffles me is Margot Robbie's buzz for the film. Seems minimal at this point, but that people were talking about nominating that sweet blip of a performance was bizarre.

I know, can you imagine if she wins?

Vulture calls the Best Actor competition this year a "bloodbath"

R105 There's a distinct difference between the way Dench commands the screen in her limited role and Robbie's glorified, yet charming, cameo.

If Robbie gets nominated it will be for Bombshell, I feel confident saying that without having have seen Bombshell yet.

Latest Feinberg forecast:

Brad Pitt did the best acting of his career in Ad Astra - he should be Oscar nominated for that role alone.

Very funny R104. : D

I'm in the Academy, R103.

Bale and Damon are both campaigning in lead, so we can probably stop predicting them altogether?

[quote]I'm in the Academy, [R103].

Be a Dear and snub Joaquin Phoenix for us. It will be the only exciting thing to happen this award season.

Who is getting best director: Tarantino or Scorsese?

Neither. It’ll be Bong Joon-ho. The increasingly international makeup of the academy is pointing to this and two foreign directors won the past two years.

It won't be Joon-ho. FFS - the Academy does have increasing foreign membership but that's not why foreign directors won the past two years. Cuaron and del Toro are brilliant cineastes who created the films of their careers those years, so they won fair and square. Their nations of origin had nothing to do with it.

It will come down to Tarentino vs Marty, with Marty imo having the edge here, Netflix prejudice aside. He's only won once before, for The Departed, which isn't even his best work. He's more than deserving of more than one statue.

Bong Joon-ho me love you long time!

Tarentino is not winning BD for that.

[quote] How bizarre that Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix could both win Oscars for playing the Joker.

And even Nicholson got Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations for it.

Hahah, I hope Leto is fuming.

Isn’t Leto blacklisted for throwing a hissyfit over Joker? Hilarious.

Leto did a shitty fuckboy version of the Joker. He and the team behind Suicide Squad deserve the ridicule for it.

I love Joaquin and he was my pick twice before, in 2013 for Her and last year for Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot, but of course he was ignored for both, so unless someone comes along and blows me away, I'll probably vote for him because I think he deserves an Oscar. I tend to vote strategically if I really hate the front runner and there's someone who could possibly beat them, otherwise I vote who I think is the best in the category. But honestly, everything is so pre-determined by the time the nominations come around that most people just tick off the front-runners. Very rarely will you see a surprise like Moonlight winning Best Picture (which I voted for because I despised La La Land).

I also don't watch every movie. I try to watch the majority, but if it's a movie I have zero interest in, life is too short. Last year I saw the trailer for Mary, Queen of Scots in the theater and knew there was no fucking way I was gonna sit through that crap. I do have actors I really don't like, but I will keep an open mind about individual performances. I absolutely loathe Emma Stone. Not personally, but I think she's a shit actress and her first two nominations (and her win) were bullshit. But I was really impressed by her in The Favourite (which was a movie I was underwhelmed by). I thought she belonged in lead, but I voted for her in supporting because not only did I think she was great but I thought Regina King's Oscar was ridiculous. I liked that movie and it contained five other performances that should have been nominated over Regina.

I never watch the animated or live action shorts. Like 90% of the rest of the Academy, I choose by the kickiest title. They really should just do away with those Oscars. I do watch the doc shorts because I'm from the doc world, but I think the shorts should just be voted on by a secret panel for the winner. There's a reason most of those filmmakers don't go on to do anything.

[quote]I'll probably vote for him because I think he deserves an Oscar.

Then suggest him for an honorary Lifetime... The category Best Actor In A Leading Role is for best performance of the year.

Joaquin winning for the Joker would be an easily justifiable win. It's not embarrassing at all, and frankly that film is lucky to have him. He, predominantly, is the reason why it's even worth watching to be honest.

[quote] Then suggest him for an honorary Lifetime... The category Best Actor In A Leading Role is for best performance of the year.

Well, it is and it isn't. It all depends on whether or not who I thought gave the best performance of the year was even nominated. Most years they aren't. So yes, if someone winds up in the final five who I think really deserves it over Phoenix, I'd vote for them, but if not, and I'm kind of meh about everyone, then I'd vote for Phoenix because I think he's given several award worthy performances in the past and (in my eyes) he wouldn't be taking the award away from anyone.

Got a shit ton of docs in my box today. The only one I've seen is 5B which so far has my vote for best of the year.

Jlo is so despised by her peers, how can she get a nom???? are they bought?

Her buzz has completely died r127.

R125? Is Joker worth watching though?

R129 I literally just said Joaquin's the reason it's worth watching.

Anyway, Leo's officially lead while Pitt's supporting, which we already knew, but those Ford v Ferrari people are fucking idiots. Anyway, this takes Bale out of the supporting race, which will hopefully give Dafeo more time to build momentum!

Yeah when I watched Joker my main thought was "is that all there is?". Its a perfectly nice movie but underwhelming given all the hype and controversy.

Joaquin does give a fully committed performance that is intriguing to watch though.

Dumb decision on the Ford vs Ferrari split. This will most likely also push out Tracy Letts from supporting and he is supposed to be one of the film’s highlights.

I think the decision on FvsF and the Best Actor split nominations was made by Bale and Damon themselves, and their mutual agent at WME (Whitesell).

R133 Yeah, this feels like a decision made by the two actors/their people, and less the studio, though I'm sure everyone was kept in the loop. I find it hard to believe that Damon and Bale, who already have Oscars, don't understand how the game works, and know that they've just shot themselves in the foot, so my guess is they really don't care.

[quote]This will most likely also push out Tracy Letts from supporting and he is supposed to be one of the film’s highlights.

On the contrary, if the Academy knows that these two are up for lead then they can focus their supporting votes on Letts if they so chose. Supporting Actor's still a packed category, so he'll need a lot of genuine love, likely from his theater reputation as well, in order to get in. He'll be in this and Little Women, so the Academy will be familiar with his presence at the very least, and warm feelings from Lady Bird may still linger.

r134 I believe Bale doesn't care much, he's been nominated several times recently and consistently states he hates campaigning and attending the show. Damon may be more competitive, but both men have to know that this is an insane year in their category and the chances of either grabbing a lead nom at this point - for a well-done 'popcorn' movie no less - are slim.

The Academy has no say who will win anymore, they just vote for who runs the award season. Most winners now have won The Golden Globe, The SAG, The Critics Choice, National Board of Review etc. already. The mock surprise when their name is read is ridiculous.

The awards race is just another performance. Each speech an audition for the big prize. It's just an expensive game the rich play... best to have fun with it and not take it too seriously.

[quote] The Academy has no say who will win anymore, they just vote for who runs the award season. Most winners now have won The Golden Globe, The SAG, The Critics Choice, National Board of Review etc. already. The mock surprise when their name is read is ridiculous.

Unless you're that CUNT Olivia Colman!

Damon’s Oscar isn’t for acting, so perhaps he doesn’t care if he has an acting Oscar.

Damon cares, go watch his acceptance speech for winning best actor in a COMEDY( eye roll) for the Martian.

He'd love to have an oscar for acting, but I think he is well aware he has no chance of winning it this year.

[quote] Unless you're that CUNT Olivia Colman! —G

Oh G, don't make me list all 32 awards Colman won for "The Favorite", ya got The SAG I'll give you that, but it was most appropriate.

[quote]The mock surprise when their name is read is ridiculous.

Though I agree with this statement, I think to a great degree what we're witnessing is relief -- the Oscars are and will forever be the only award that matters and I'm sure many of the nominees, despite winning all season, are still nervous as fuck that they will be denied in the end.

[quote] the Oscars are and will forever be the only award that matters

The Sarah Siddons Award for Distinguished Achievement is perhaps unknown to you. It has been spared the sensational and commercial publicity that attends such questionable "honors" as the Pulitzer Prize and those awards presented annually by the film society.

[quote]I really don't see The Irishman getting a lot of awards. It's Netflix which much of Hollywood resents for "stealing" talent. I think the academy will nominate Scorsese because of what he accomplished, though.

I think what turns me off about the whole Netflix/Oscars thing is how they release their films into theaters just to qualify for awards, then make it available for streaming on their service a month later. In my opinion (which I know is likely in the minority), they should at least let the film have a theatrical run of at least 3 to 6 months before showing it on TV (perhaps 6 if it's a hit, 3 if it's not). That way it would be viewed more as a real feature film and not just a glorified TV-movie shoehorned into theaters for a quick run to win some Oscars. I think the way they presently do it in effect "cheapens" the film and robs it of that prestige that movies enjoy as a "higher" work of art (or at least the kind deemed worthy of Academy Awards).

Re-reading my post, I do want to add that I'm not disparaging the quality of Netflix's films per se -- I've heard nothing but wonderful things about "The Irishman" and have no doubt it's excellent (as was "Roma" last year). I also wholeheartedly defer to the opinions of Academy members who post here because they know the industry way better than I do (from the outside looking in). I just think the way Netflix goes about getting its films Oscar attention does not favorably serve the perception that they are deserving of legitimately being in the race as opposed to just "crashing" it.

Netflix "crashing" the race is one of the more exciting developments to happen in film as of late. I mean... I guess it's a timely concern, what with Scorsese's statements on what is or isn't "cinema". Frankly, what I respect about Netflix is that they're going to bat for auteurs: Cuaron, Scorsese, Baumbach, Soderbergh... they're giving these filmmakers platforms when no other studios would. The Irishman wouldn't exist without Netflix, and I'd rather have the film at all than bitch about theatrical prerequisites.

Also, doesn't the Academy run on screeners? The whole idea of Netflix's early streaming robbing a film of its theatrical prestige is kind of ridiculous when a bunch of straight old white men can watch Green Book on their barcaloungers and award it Best Picture.

"Also, doesn't the Academy run on screeners?"

Ding ding ding. Academy members, those at least who watch the movies at all, aren't doing it at the local theater.

And if they are showing up at the theater, it's not with the unwashed masses, but at their guild screenings.

Also, I read an article a week or so ago about how they want to do away with physical screeners and allow Academy members to... you guessed it... stream the films online! A fucking window on your desktop. The prestige of it all.

The more we discuss the reality of this topic the more absurd it is. It feels like logic unraveling. This is what all the fuss is about?

Ooh, also, Little Women screened last night and by all accounts it's a hit. Buzz is expectedly building for Saoirse, but the real excitement's around Florence. It looks like those hopes have come true. I, personally, love to hear it. Thought she was great in Midsommar and have been meaning to watch Lady Macbeth. She's also in the upcoming Black Widow with Scarlett, who'll be a heavy hitter this awards season. Lots of connections abound!

Furthermore, Scarlett's in Marriage Story, directed by Baumbach, Gerwig's beau! Looks like everyone's getting invited to the Oscars this season. What a narrative for the press that'll be! Two indie prestige directors in love and beloved by their peers. Jennifer Jason Leigh must be thrilled.

Anyway, I'm super excited for Little Women. Laura Dern's ALSO in this... she's the link between Marriage Story and Little Women, and it looks like she'll ALSO be nominated... guys... what's going ON this season?! It's so intertwined! Let's watch the trailer. Chalamet's adorable. Watson looks lost at sea.

Despite how obviously mediocre the Joker is to people with half a brain, it’ll probably clean up. It has the advantage of being a box office cash cow and a comic book film made by a major studio while being able to masquerade as a “brilliant work of art” because of its 10th grade creative writing class level morality and the fact that the director gave a shit about the way it was filmed. Now the studio can buy it nominations and awards and the public will think it’s deserved because we’ve been so brainwashed by the endless barrage of comic book films that we think schlock like this is Oscar worthy.

Remember when Black Panther was nominated for Best Picture? That proved today’s movie audiences are too dumb for any American film to win acclaim and awards unless it’s made by a massive major studio or has a superhero in it. In most cases both.

Joaquin was alright.

[quote] Also, I read an article a week or so ago about how they want to do away with physical screeners and allow Academy members to... you guessed it... stream the films online! A fucking window on your desktop. The prestige of it all.

Actually, AMPAS will have a "channel" that's made available to devices like Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast, etc. so you can watch it on your television. I'm all for it. It's a pain in the ass to have to dispose of all those screeners at the end of the season. I shred them.

Scarlett Johansson is winning for A Marriage Story.

Sorry, Rene.

[quote]And if they are showing up at the theater, it's not with the unwashed masses, but at their guild screenings.

And the stars will usually show up which goes to the recent thread we had about Oscar campaigning.

[quote] And if they are showing up at the theater, it's not with the unwashed masses, but at their guild screenings.

Can you blame anyone who doesn't want to go to the movies with the "great unwashed?" $11 for a matinee (plus paying for parking) with shitty projection, people talking through the whole movie or on their phones, music from the film next door bleeding through the cinema walls.

I rarely go to the movies anymore, and I think most people in my industry feel the same way. I'd rather watch a movie on my 65" television in the comfort and silence of my own home, especially if I'm evaluating it for awards.

I've paid to see 6 first run movies in the theater this year so far, two because I wanted the good sound, three because I wanted to support the filmmakers who had small films and one because I went for a long walk and I was tired and wanted to rest. And I've already bought my ticket for The Rise of Skywalker in IMAX 3D because there was nothing as thrilling to watch as the IMAX scene in The Force Awakens and I'm looking forward to more.

I think if anyone wins for marriage story I think it will be Driver r152, both are being praised a lot, but Driver seems to be the one that really leaves an impression.

Driver won the critics survey of best performance at TIFF.

[quote]I rarely go to the movies anymore, and I think most people in my industry feel the same way. I'd rather watch a movie on my 65" television in the comfort and silence of my own home, especially if I'm evaluating it for awards.

And I wouldn't hold that against anyone, especially in this day and age, but if one believes the majority of Academy members would rather watch these films from the comfort of their own home, then the Netflix backlash is even more ridiculous. It certainly shouldn't be the basis upon which one builds an argument against Netflix's campaigning. There's some other petty reason for the animosity. Probably just because it's new.

I can tell you it's the blurred lines of everything, not necessarily the newness. I'll give you a couple of examples.

There are certain films from past years, from Bergman's Scenes From a Marriage to The Last Seduction and beyond that were excluded from Oscar consideration because they played on anything from international television to Pay TV first. While it doesn't happen often, it's been ingrained that never the twain shall meet. Being in the doc branch, I have gotten consistently annoyed that certain docs are now eligible for Oscars AND Emmys. Making a doc is hard enough and getting it seen even tougher, and if you make something that gets sold to television, to have the flashier, better known Oscar winning doc competing against a television product isn't fair. A lot of the Academy feels like you're either one or the other.

I myself understand that the business has shifted and a lot of smaller films are now day and date theater/streaming. My feeling is that as long as they open and play in a theater for the requisite amount of time with on the date or before the date of ancillary release, they're eligible for an Oscar. And Netflix doesn't play fast and loose with Oscar/Emmy qualifications (except for their docs, which again pisses me off).

What I think is masking all the anger towards Netflix is the ease in which these deals have been made in the past. No one has to struggle, the network throws money at the projects, they don't report box office grosses for ANY of their theatrical releases so the pressure is off, they don't have to fight to be seen in a crowded field at the end of the year. And no one wants to admit that Netflix films/filmmakers don't have to sweat blood to get made and to get pushed. And the whole nature of Oscars is- the 20 year battle to get this award winning film made, or my long struggle back to the top or- we were the little film that no one believed in. And with Netflix, you just don't have that. And when you factor in that it doesn't matter if NO ONE comes to see it in the theaters, there's a lot of resentment floating around.

Again, I don't necessarily agree with it, but I can understand where it's coming from.

[quote]Being in the doc branch, I have gotten consistently annoyed that certain docs are now eligible for Oscars AND Emmys. Making a doc is hard enough and getting it seen even tougher, and if you make something that gets sold to television, to have the flashier, better known Oscar winning doc competing against a television product isn't fair. A lot of the Academy feels like you're either one or the other.

We've probably complained about this issue together in the past. I remember first noticing it with The Square, that documentary about the Arab Spring. I remember when it was nominated for an Oscar, and then showed up at the Emmys later that year. Happened the following year with Virunga. It actually happened as recently as last month when Free Solo took home Emmys after winning the Oscar earlier this year. I think that this is something both awards bodies need to sort out.

The Oscars happen earlier in the year, so if they contend for that, then they should be disqualified for submitting their film for Emmy consideration later that year. Or, if they want the Emmy, then they must skip campaigning for Oscars. Netflix, and other documentarians, are likely enjoying this loophole and racking up those awards tallies for as long as they can before the highers up nip it in the bud.

[quote]And the whole nature of Oscars is- the 20 year battle to get this award winning film made, or my long struggle back to the top or- we were the little film that no one believed in.

That's maybe the more romanticized version of it... and sometimes the award aligns with the nature you describe, but more often than not it's always been about who's got the money. Weinstein played the Academy for years, buying wins and noms for "prestige" pictures, some of which had no business being nominated in the first place. It probably feels good for the Academy to believe they're on the side of the struggling, noble filmmaker, but we all know that's not always the case. At all.

Anyway, go Florence Pugh!

No, I agree with you, R158, my scenario is not always the way it is, but I also think that a lot of producers and filmmakers THINK they've struggled to get something of quality made, seen and appreciated, even if we don't see it that way.

And yes- you should have to choose what award/medium you're going to vie for and wherever you make your premiere, that's where you're relegated to. You can't have both.

Emma Watson is a TERRIBLE actress r149, she better not get a (supporting?) nom!

[quote]Emma Watson is a TERRIBLE actress [R149], she better not get a (supporting?) nom!

Once again Nitwit, it's for a single performance not her resume. She might be fabulous.

Word is Watson had most of her scenes cut from LW because she’s pretty terrible.

Like r161 said, Watson is not a particularly good actress. She just isn't.

No one's predicting Watson. Where did that even come from? Florence Pugh's the supporting actress candidate for Little Women.

Tight? I guess that excludes our Glennie. For more than one reason.

[quote] Florence Pugh's the supporting actress candidate for Little Women.

Should Amy sound like she's been smoking cigarettes and drinking vodka since she was 5?

R166 Yup! That's primarily why Florence is getting buzz... for annoying you.

r167, where did I say she annoys me? I love Florence, especially her diner-waitress-from-Casper-Wyoming voice!

R168 DL's default mode is to bitch, so I assumed you were coming for Florence. I love her diner waitress rasp as well!

Florence should have won for Lady Macbeth.

Taylor Swift has co-written a new song with ALW for Cats. Looks like both Swift and Beyonce are gunning for Oscar gold this season. I somehow doubt they'll have Gaga's luck, but I expect the Globes to go nuts.

R171 what is Beyonces song?

"Spirit" for The Lion King. It's not very good, and its shoehorning into the film is actually pretty insulting.

I just watched Dolemite is My Name. I enjoyed it, but it's very surfacy. Eddie is a lot of fun, but he doesn't go too deep and I feel like I could see an amalgam of several of his past characters in this portrayal, from Thurgood Stubbs to Mama Klump. Cast was uniformly good, but the standout was Wesley Snipes who I would love to see get a Supporting Actor nomination.

The weak link is the script itself. I've never understood the appeal of Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski. I've always felt their writing to be slick and superficial, and this is no different. Thank goodness they had Craig Brewer directing.

It's a fun watch but I don't think it's going to be an awards contender. Maybe costumes.

I haven't watched Dolemite yet, but it always seemed more lightweight with a lot of hopeful passion for Murphy, but Best Actor's so packed this year that the Globes might be his strongest showing. Happy to hear the film's entertaining though! Honestly, that's all Murphy needs right now.

Emma Watson makes Kristen Stewart look talented.

Kristen Stewart makes herself look talented. Emma Watson's outstaying her welcome.

Though could you imagine that cast with Emma Stone in it? I feel she'd be distractingly modern. Despite her lack of charisma, Emma does fit the period.

I think Emma Watson would be on her way out like Rupert Grint had she not been saved by Beauty and the Beast, which would have been a smash no matter who had been cast, but it extended her bankability for another few years.

The illusion of it for sure... though I suspect if Little Women does well we'll see more of her.

God I forgot they butchered Beauty & the Beast with a remake. Jesus.

The Gotham Awards.

What I think is most notable is they nominated Adam Driver for best actor but snubbed ScarJo for best actress.

I don't know too much about the Gotham awards, but it seems like they go for more... lesser known, off beat picks. They also don't give out as many awards, so it's probably not a good predictor for anything the Academy will be doing, but it's nice to see which films are being talked about on a broad scale.

The Gotham Awards are only about independent films so by definition it is more off the beaten path than the academy.

No one cares about the Gotham Awards. They never have, they never will.

[quote] Cast was uniformly good, but the standout was Wesley Snipes who I would love to see get a Supporting Actor nomination.

I'm confused, Snipes is playing a real life actor D'Urville Martin and he plays what I would say is really gay. I'm watching the original "Dolemite" and he doesn't come off the way Snipes portrays him and IMBD says he was long time married with two kids. I said on the "Dolemite Is My Name" thread my highlight was Da'Vine Joy Randolph, from her first scene, She deserves at least a nomination.

[quote]I haven't watched Dolemite yet, but it always seemed more lightweight with a lot of hopeful passion for Murphy

Don't confuse it as lightweight because it's a about blacksploitation. It's actually a touching story of a man who wouldn't give up and Murphy is terrific.

[quote] I'm confused, Snipes is playing a real life actor D'Urville Martin and he plays what I would say is really gay. I'm watching the original "Dolemite" and he doesn't come off the way Snipes portrays him and IMBD says he was long time married with two kids. I said on the "Dolemite Is My Name" thread my highlight was Da'Vine Joy Randolph, from her first scene, She deserves at least a nomination.

D'urville Martin wasn't gay, but he was effete and affected. And Snipes only comes off that way when he's playing Martin, NOT when he's playing the character Martin plays in Dolemite.

[quote]Don't confuse it as lightweight because it's a about blacksploitation.

That's not why I'm calling it lightweight... I mean, it just doesn't seem like a front runner in any capacity... like, Best Actor could be so strong that Murphy's season ends at the Globes. I'm interested in the film, and will definitely watch it, but it just didn't seem like the type of film that would have enough for the Academy to go nuts about it. I could be wrong though... ain't seen it yet.

The movie is lightweight, and that's not a bad thing. I enjoyed it very much, but it's out for fun and a feel-good good time than a real deep dive into anything.

No love for Motherless Brooklyn?

Too competitive a year r189. Didn't it get mixed reviews? In a weaker year it would have had traction.

Motherless Brooklyn is currently sitting at around a 60 percent? So better than Affleck's Live By Night, but they both seem like ill-advised vanity period pieces. I don't see any Oscar love for Norton's picture.

Speaking of Oscar, a little Academy trivia...

In 1971 Glenda Jackson won for "Women In Love". She wasn't there and Juliette Mills accepted for her. I got to meet Miss Mills again this weekend at The CHILLER show and she really is a lovely lady. I asked how it came about, whether Glenda asked her or the Academy. She said the Academy asked her because she would be there with her father was also nominated that year, and her father and Glenda ended up winning too.

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend:

Saw The Irishman yesterday. It's my favorite film of the year, and I'm not even that into Scorsese's past gangster epics. This one's a much rich exploration of that world, and it's an achievement at every level.

Much richer*

[quote]Saw The Irishman yesterday. It's my favorite film of the year, and I'm not even that into Scorsese's past gangster epics. This one's a much rich exploration of that world, and it's an achievement at every level.

People are bitching already about the three and a half hour running time but many have no problem binging four or five hours of a series at a time.

I thought the runtime was more than appropriate. It's fucking worth it for the amount of pure cinema you get out of the film. Scorsese and The Trio put on one hell of a show. If you can sit through three hours of Marvel nonsense, you can sit for 20 more mins for Scorsese.

Anyway, the film will stream on Netflix soon enough, so people can break up the viewing experience into more palatable bits if they want.

I think it's best seen in a theater if you can. If not, definitely get some friends together who appreciate film and have a good time. It's a great communal experience.

So far best bet for Best Picture and Director...what about acting R197 a third for DeNiro?

Renee is a shoe in

Oh Dear!

then she must be size 10 EEEE

R198 I don't see De Niro winning his third for this film, though he gives a very lived in, moving performance. He should definitely get nominated, but I still think the frontrunners are Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix.

As far as Picture and Director go, I really hope so. This is a much more worthy film than The Departed, and I wouldn't mind seeing Scorsese take him more Oscars. All of the reasons people say Tarantino should win for Hollywood can be said about Scorsese for The Irishman, but its even more meaningful in this case. It's simply a better film in every way.

Is it between Parasite and the Irishman for Best Dirrctor ?

I think probably Scorsese and Tarantino. I'd say Bong's in the mix. He's got the hearts of the critics, but the Academy has literally never shown love to South Korean films, but if anyone's going to break that ceiling it's Bong and this film.

Tarantino has Original Screenplay locked.

Yeah, I think he'll take Screenplay as well. It'll be his third win in the category. Pundits argue that he's overdue a director win, which I can understand, but Scorsese's upstages everyone so far this year.

Maybe the Academy will be my neighbor!

Laura Dern is a good bet for Marriage Story for Best Supporting Actress this year.

I'm so excited to see Marriage Story. I'm thankful that I live near theaters that are showing Netflix films. The Landmark in LA actually has an exhibit for the film on display. I'm excited to check that out. Also, anytime Laura Dern is buzzed about is a good time. Who's the frontrunner for supporting actress this year?

* cough cough *

I don't think Jennifer's the frontrunner so much as she's the loudest in the room. There's definitely time for other actresses to make their case. Dern's beloved in the Academy as well... and will be in two Best Picture nominees. We'll see what happens.

Dern got a surprise nomination for a less than ten minute performance in “Wild.” The Academy likes her.

[quote]Dern's beloved in the Academy as well

She's on their Board of Governors and is actively involved in their events which members love.

Seriously, that Wild nomination is awesome. She looks incredible in the film too! Dern turned into a fashion icon this year.

Anyone who has seen Enchanted loves Dern.

Haha, you mean Enlightened right?

Though I'd love to see Dern as a Disney princess. Gods, could you imagine? What happens to a Disney princess as she ages... that could be fascinating... oh no, oh I want this film! Guys, imagine... no, that'd be interesting... like a weird semi-prestige Disney movie about an aging princess and what that's like... you know, after they're in the prime of their lives, singing songs at the bottom of the ocean or on hilltops... could be cool.

And Laura Dern would kill it in a role like that you just KNOW it!

Dern was brilliant in Enlightened. The series finale is one of my favorites of all time.

Dern has had a huge resurgence, Emmy & Golden Globe for "Pretty Little Lies", "Star Wars", "Marriage Story AND "Little Women" this year so yeah, she's gonna get her Oscar.

I'd love to see that. I want Pesci to win an Oscar for The Irishman. I'm stuck between him and Dafoe, but I can feel Pesci overtaking him in my rankings. Dammit, I think he has. Okay, I'm team Pesci. Might be my favorite performance of the year.

If Dafoe is nominated this year for The Lighthouse, it will be his third nomination three years in a row. That’s a very impressive comeback narrative.

And Pesci has one already. Dafoe is due too.

Yeah, Pesci does have one. I'd rather Dafoe have an Oscar than anything to be honest, and The Lighthouse would be a worthy fucking win. Not one of those bullshit makeup awards.

So is it... Driver/Zellweger/Pitt/Dern? Is that what we're thinking at this point? I can see an argument for Johannson... and maaaaaaaaaybe a shakeup in Supporting Actor, though that might be fixed.

Phoenix-Zellweger-Dafoe-Dern

How white.

That Harriet movie looked like crap. Erivo can do better. Enjoyed her work in both Widows and El Royale, but Harriet looks like cheap bait, and I haven't heard good things about it. She did write a song for the film, so if it's an especially weak year in that category, I can see them throwing her a bone.

Saw Honey Boy tonight. Truly moving film. Difficult to watch. Beautifully realized story of how a boy's relationship with his father sows the seeds of self destruction. Lucas Hedges is great in the film. He plays Shia during his rehab years, so he gets to wrestle with some heavy material, but the real stars of the picture are Noah Jupe, who plays young Shia, and Shia himself, who plays his father. They're perfect together... so heartbreaking, and they match each other in intensity and go to some very dark places together. It's incredible to watch.

I'm really proud of Shia to be honest, and I hope this film was as healing an experience for him as it seems.

Welcome to Dataloinge Shia.

[quote]Welcome to Dataloinge Shia.

Of course it has to be Shia, who else would love the picture but him? Fool.

So far I've been called both Jack Quaid and Shia LaBeouf today. Not bad.

What about Song Kang-ho in Parasite?

This is the first time in years there are so many good upcoming films that are being released I doubt I will be able to see all the ones I want. Motherless Brooklyn was excellent. I'm seeing Lighthouse and Marriage Story next. Ford vs Ferrari looks promising as does 1917.

You sound easy to please, R232.

R233 What's the last film that pleased you?

Anyone follow Gold Derby's YouTube channel? Their frontrunners seem to be The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Parasite rounding the corner due to sheer widespread passion. I can see that. I think Marriage Story will also have a strong showing, but the big prize seems to be between these aforementioned films.

Hahah, is anyone still here?

Anyway, I saw Marriage Story in 35mm yesterday. The film is beautiful. A quiet triumph, really, for everyone involved. Tour de force performances by Johansson, Dern, and especially Driver, who empties his tank on this film. Stunning work... feels as visceral as the performances we got during the 70s. Johansson's given more meat to chew on here than she's ever been given, and I'm thankful for that. She's a smart actress, and so open and warm here... there's a fearlessness about her, which I think is necessary when performing with this mode of Driver.

Dern... damn... I mean, and I'm not exaggerating here, the moment the film cut to the first shot of her, the chemistry in my theater changed and you could hear it. It was a strange fucking moment, and one I wouldn't have expected to happen with Dern. What I'm saying is, she elicited the same reaction that Brad Pitt did when he took his shirt off in Hollywood, and she did it fully clothed. If she doesn't win an Oscar I'd be fucking surprised.

Anyway, I suspect Driver, Dern, and Baumbach's screenplay should be easy wins, with nominations for Picture, Director, hopefully Cinematography, and possibly Score. A special film for sure.

Actress as well. I'm an idiot. Of course Scarlett will be nominated. Marriage Story is a MUCH better film than Judy, I'm sure, but I have no idea how hard the Academy's dicks are for Renee, who seems to be the frontrunner. People have been talking up Charlize's performance as well, so Johansson's got some competition.

Tom Hanks for playing Mr. Rogers may have something to say about best actor. Considering the times we are living in I don't think this role should be overlooked.

He'll be campaigning in the super competitive supporting actor category.

Pitt

Pesci

Pacino

Dafoe

Hanks

Is that what we can expect?

Add in Hopkins for The Two Popes, R239. I think people are underestimating that one.

After Roma, I think people are vastly overestimating Parasite’s chances to win anything outside International Film. I do think it will get in for Picture and Director, but remember that Roma had possibly the most expensive Oscar campaign ever, and Neon can’t spend even a fraction of what Netflix has.

That's a good point. I do think Parasite will garner a respectful amount of major nominations and will handily win Best International Film, but if it wins anything it'll have to be because the Academy was head over heels for the film, and we don't know that they feel that way just yet. We know critics and cineastes do, but how it'll play with the Academy is another question, and Cuaron has a strong relationship with the Academy, who's never even nominated a South Korean film for Foreign Film. Basically, it won't be as easy for Bong, but I expect him to have a strong showing all season.

I will say though that while the buzz surrounding Roma felt more monumental at the time, Parasite seems to be a way bigger hit, no? By dint of its genre, it has a much better shot at appealing to a wider range of audiences. Honestly, anyone can watch this film. With Roma you had to commit to a more meditative experience, whereas Parasite's a twisty, turny, energetic romp.

I loved every film that director has done. I wish Parasite will hurry up and come to Bumfuk, USA.

CATS Film Will Miss the Deadline For Multiple Award Nominations This Season

Interesting. Shame it'll miss the Globes where it probably would have had its best showing this season. Thing is, we haven't seen the film, and everyone's expecting a fiasco, so in order for Cats to succeed it needs to be so good it shuts everyone up and missing the Globes doesn't matter.

Or it'll just get Visual Effects and Best Original Song nominations and call it a day. There's no room in Director, and I doubt any performance in this film can stand out in an already competitive race across all performance categories. Unless it's a hit, I just don't see this mattering all that much.

Jealous r236. Wanted to see Mareiage Story but it's not even playing in the DC metro this weekend. Hopefully soon.

It'll be on Netflix in a few weeks.

I saw Jojo Rabbit last night and it was probably my favorite film of the year so far (though I’ll admit I’ve missed a lot of the other contenders of late). Johansson is totally worthy of a Supporting Actress nod for it, if not a win.

"Marriage Story" Netflix December 6, 2019

So Netflix has two big Oscar movies we can watch on our TV.

I think it is better to catch in a theater if you can (though if you don't live in a major metro this isn't possible). There is something about the experience of watching a movie in a theater where you are forced to immerse in it, that isn't replicated by watching it at home where you might be doing many other things.

"Motherless Brooklyn was excellent." (r232)

So it's not just another "Ed Norton plays odd duck, this time with Tourette's" movie (See: "Primal Fear"; "The Score")?

If Netflix had it's way there would be no theatrical release at all. They want to be in the Academy and they want Oscar attention. But the Academy said NO, you play by our rules which is a week in NY and LA in a real theater for at least a week. Studios in the past would do this for pictures like "The Deer Hunter" before they would go with a national release in Jan or Feb. Netflix balked and complained and the Academy stood firm.

Then they tried to get major bookings in big chain theaters theaters for the required week while they premiered the picture same day on Netflix and the theaters said NO, play by our rules which is a 90 day theatrical exclusive before DVD, PPV or On Demand, & streaming. The theaters stood firm, that is why Netflix has had to go with small independent theaters and the novelty of "The Irishman" in a real Broadway theater.

r238, See r205.

r252, Because of its mobster characters' PA roots, there are two theatres in the Scranton, PA, area showing "The Irishman"!

[quote] Studios in the past would do this for pictures like "The Deer Hunter" before they would go with a national release in Jan or Feb.

Not just in the past. A film opening at the very last minute in two theaters in LA and NY expressly for awards purposes happens to this day. Scorsese's Silence is the last film I remember bowing in such a manner. It's just part of the game.

[quote]The theaters stood firm, that is why Netflix has had to go with small independent theaters and the novelty of "The Irishman" in a real Broadway theater.

If anything, Netflix has spiced up the movie going experience for me. I'm fortunate to live in Southern California, so I've been driving into LA to see limited release films for most of my movie going life. Only difference with Netflix is that I can't see them in my preferred movie houses like The Arclight. Instead I've gone to The Landmark, which is nice but a bit further away, and The Vista, which is an independent movie theater in the Los Feliz area. I'd never gone there before and it was such a special experience. They screened the film in 35mm and gave out these really nice lithographs in the lobby. Seeing both The Irishman and Marriage Story in theaters has been a real treat, and you can tell that the audience feels it too. We're all there because we genuinely want a theatrical experience.

Anyway, the only shame is the majority of people who don't live in these specific markets won't get this experience if they want it. I hope this changes in the future because seeing a film like The Irishman in a packed house is a super fun experience.

It will only change if Netflix agrees to play them longer in the theaters.

R252 I am ignorant about the movie industry. Is there a reason Netflix just doesn't release their movies in theaters in the usual three month window that other studios do, and then just have it premiere on their streaming service afterwards? I just don't understand why they seem reluctant to have their films in theaters. I know they are trying to build up their brand, but what's wrong with the theater release model where they could theoretically make some cash, and then stream it exclusively on their streaming platform after? Every other studio does that with the added bonus of physical media/ and streaming media sales after those 3 months. What are the negatives of that? Seems like a win win to me.

Netflix wants to have its cake and eat it too. They want to build their awards prestige, so they're playing the theatrical game, but they don't like the exclusivity window, so they can't get a wide theatrical release. Netflix has made it clear that they're ultimately prioritizing their customers' desire for an immediate, home-viewing experience, and the three month window, which Amazon does honor, prevents them from doing that.

I understand perspectives on both sides. The movie business is in flux... parts of it are trying to survive... all these companies are just trying to do what's best for them. With Netflix, however, I would say that their current situation isn't... horrible. I'm sure they'd want a wider theatrical release, but the exclusivity around The Irishman and Marriage Story has actually made for more bespoke theatrical experiences.

I think that when it comes to their theatrical releases... unless they actually do decide to fund a major blockbuster, Netflix should stop trying to chase theaters they can't get along with, and fully embrace the ones that do. Make the limited theatrical screenings all the more special, like watching The Irishman in a Broadway house. Their shitty films like Triple Frontier don't need this. They could save this experience for their true prestige pics like Roma, The Irishman, and Marriage Story. Create more curated cinematic showings before they all bow on the streaming service for everyone to see a month or so later.

R236 gave me goosebumps and R224 has my dream winners list- Its perfect.

And don't rule out Bethesda Sharfels Browneye for Two Mules Under The Hill, she is getting some buzz of late-

Netflix is embracing theatrical releases more. Irishmen and Marriage Story are having month long theatrical releases which is a longer commitment than Netflix needs to be awards eligible.

Well, it's not that they don't embrace the theatrical release so much as they don't want to see it as one or the other. One point they've made is that Roma is still playing in certain theaters around the world despite being available on Netflix. Netflix wants to change the game, not play by its own rules. How this'll work out for them in the long run we'll see, but the fact is that without them we wouldn't have a film like The Irishman in the first place. They're one of the few studios making a concerted effort to keep the auteur's vision alive instead of desperately grasping for the next milkable franchise. They released two of the best films of the year. For that alone I'll stand by their side.

Netflix wants to change the game, not play by its OLD* rules.

[quote]Netflix is embracing theatrical releases more. Irishmen and Marriage Story are having month long theatrical releases which is a longer commitment than Netflix needs to be awards eligible.

I'm not sure about the non-Egyptian Theater locations but Netflix is running that there longer because they own the Egyptian (despite all the press saying that they are in the process of buying it. The deal is done.) so they're getting a nice chunk of chain due to the sold out screenings. I understand why they would want to run THE IRISHMAN longer.

Netflix rents out theaters to show their films so whatever they make at The Landmark goes right back to them, but also if they don't sell a seat Netflix has still paid for it. I think the Egyptian will have the longer run. Comparatively DOLEMITE IS MY NAME played at three small theaters for two weeks and the same for THE KING. The theater I saw THE KING in probably had less than 100 seats.

I was underwhelmed by Jojo Rabbit. It played it too safe, surprisingly lacking an edge, and just wasn’t funny enough to compensate.

Marriage Story looks like a complete bore.

It's actually a pretty energetic film.

R266 should stick to comic book movies.

Does the actress playing Harriet have a chance ?

My initial impulse says no. Best Actress is relatively competitive. Zellweger, Johansson, Theron, and Ronan seem to have their spots secured, which leaves one spot open for either Alfre Woodard, Awkwafina, Lupita N'yongo, and Cynthia Erivo. I assume at least one actress of color will get in... it's just a matter of who. Awkwafina's in the most beloved film, but is the most lightweight actress. N'yongo's got Oscar clout, as does Peele, but Us lacked Get Out's depth and the genre could backfire a la Toni Collette. Erivo's respected, but her film's middling quality may work against her. That leaves Woodard, who's been one of the most highly respected Black actresses for decades. Not many people have seen Clemency, but those that have do sing her praises. The film's allegedly difficult, but Woodard's stature within the Academy could easily give her the edge over these younger actresses.

Basically, don't be surprised if Alfre's name is mentioned nomination morning.

Nobody loved Loving, but that didn't stop them from nominating Ruth Negga.

Meryl Streep won oscar number 3 off a film no one liked much. There is a well established history of a performance being able to stand alone.

I understand what you're both saying, but Negga got in as a response to racial backlash (as well as a fortunately timed shout out from Streep). My argument is that if the Academy wants to avoid that this year, they've got more plausible options than Erivo. Additionally, comparing Erivo to Streep doesn't work for a number of reasons, but the Streep argument actually works in favor of an actress like Woodard.

Woodard would make an excellent choice. Not a prayer of winning, but 35 years after her first nom would be great.

Yeah, that's the narrative I'm thinking could push her towards a nom at the very least. We'll see what happens!

Jennifer Lopez is a lock for a supporting actress nomination, so the nominees definitely won't be all white regardless.

Marriage Story is OSCAR BAIT. Yawn. Same with Laundromat.

Marriage Story is what Oscar Bait wishes it could be. Laundromat was just a miss on all fronts.

Lopez is hardly a lock.

I enjoy reading this thread, but I dread the endless Oscar hype starting right after Christmas. After the relentless PR for Lady Bird, I can no longer abide Ronan, even though I she's a good actress & I loved her in Brooklyn. Anyway, there are so many awards leading up to AA, it's almost a forgone conclusion who will win by the time it arrives.

Disagree r279. I think her and Lern are locks for that category. Supporting actress is the least crowded category out of the four acting categories this year, can't picture them not getting in.

[quote]Laundromat was just a miss on all fronts.

The Laundromat and The Report were both written by Scott Z. Burns (with Burns directing the latter), and it's only because of Streep that The Laundromat has received more notice because it's awful. The Report is a better film. Not great, but Driver is solid in it and Annette Bening is adequate as Dianne Feinstein.

[quote]but 35 years after her first nom would be great.

Second nom. Woodard’s first was for Cross Creek in 1983.

Oops, ignore that. I misread you r274. Apologies.

R280 and I appear to be separated at birth: the relentless push for Lady Bird, a middling film at best, really turned me off. I’m dreading Little Women, it just looks like it’s gonna be a chore to sit through.

Jojo Rabbit is surely a contender

It is, but it’s also destined to be this year’s villain in the Oscar race, like Green Book last year, and Three Billboards and La La Land before that. Oscar pundits will be calling it a cinematic hate crime by January.

I think Waititi might get Screenplay, but a sweep for The Irishman or a makeup award for Greta Gerwig are hardly out of the question.

I think y'all are overestimating Jojo Rabbit's chances; I wouldn't be surprised if it gets snubbed, save for maybe an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

What makes me so confident in Jojo is the Audience Award at TIFF. Since Slumdog, every winner there (except in 2011, when almost none of the major contenders were featured) later won at least one Oscar in a top six category. That’s tough to discount, even with the movie’s mixed reviews.

And even if it does underperform, Scarlett seems pretty safe thanks to how weak the Supporting Actress field is. She’ll have a lot of opportunities to smile and clap while Laura Dern sweeps.

Has anyone seen Marriage Story? What does Laura Dern do in it that is making her such a strong frontrunner?

Laura Dern is always strong in almost everything she's done. She plays ScarJo's divorce attorney in Marriage Story, she based her performance allegedly on high powered LA divorce attorneys like Laura Wasser.

R290 I saw Marriage Story. You can read my thoughts at r236.

Dern does it all... she commands every scene she's in. There's a fierce intelligence to her work, and the character's style is out of this world. She's got one monologue about the unfair standards society places on women in relation to men that will likely win her the award, but she's exceptional throughout.

I’m dreading that monologue. Please tell me she doesn’t repeat the myth that women are paid less than men.

No. It's about how society dictates what a good mother is and what a good father is. It's organic to the plot. I mean, if you're super sensitive towards ideas like that and see SJWness everywhere, then by all means dread it, but it's a meaningful part of the film.

Well, we shall see.

Well... [italic]you[/italic] shall see. I already know what I'm talking about, haha.

Nobody has been talking about A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, even though it had positive reviews from early screenings and releases soon. Most people have assumed Tom Hanks is a lock, but do we have another Captain Phillips, or worse, a Saving Mr. Banks on our hands?

What movie is Alfre Woodward in the running for ?.

Yeah, I'm not so sure about Hanks. You're right... no one's talking about the film despite the positive notices. To me it reads as a pleasant, but ultimately forgettable experience. I mean... it's sort of obvious, Tom Hanks in a film about Mr. Rogers. It just has this inevitable quality that's difficult to get excited about.

I think we can safely say that Pitt, Pesci, and Pacino are in. I want to include Dafoe because the Academy clearly loves him and it's a powerhouse performance. The only thing working against him is the film's macabre, confounding nature, which could put the Academy off a la Collette in Hereditary. I do, however, think he's safe. That leaves one final spot for a number of possibilities. Hanks, of course, seems like an easy fifth spot, but The Two Popes is being talked about as a potential sleeper hit, which could help Hopkins' chances. There's even the far off possibility of Shia in Honey Boy, which would be more than deserved.

Song Kang-Ho's being talked about for Parasite, and Roma's acting nominations prove that if there's enough passionate support from the Academy, then wondrous things can happen for foreign films. Sterling K. Brown's in the conversation for Waves, but is the film too fringe? I'm seeing pundits mention the two supporting actors from Marriage Story: Alan Alda and Ray Liotta. I can say that they're fucking great in the film... honestly, truly great performances for different reasons. That being said, I wouldn't nominate them... only because the category really is that strong. Liotta's screen time is limited, but Alda... I don't know... I can see a case being made for Alda. It's an understated, dryly humorous, empathetic and gentle performance, and he definitely adds to the film's warmth. That coupled with last year's SAG Lifetime Achievement award, and him acting despite the Parkinsons... I mean, I can easily see a push to give him his second nomination since The Aviator.

Anyway... that's my longwinded take on Supporting Actor. I think it's probably the most stacked category of the year so far. A true abundance of riches, and there will be painful snubs unfortunately.

[quote]What movie is Alfre Woodward in the running for ?.

Clemency. I believe it made a splash on Sundance. You don't have to see it, but keep it in your periphery. It's easily the type of vehicle that could get a revered veteran actress like Alfre Woodard a nomination.

JLO OSCAR PERFECTION!!!

Beautiful Day...I wonder if they are waiting until the end of the year to release. It does look like something that would play during the holidays.

'Beautiful Day..." is opening Nov 22nd.

Beautiful Day I can’t find on IMDb.com.

O the Mr. Rogers movie.

r297, see r205.

Yeah I assume Tom Hanks will get a supporting actor nom for Beautiful Day, but I don't know about it being a big contender outside of that.

Travolta's running FYC ads for his trash film.

Hanks gets a supporting nod for the Rogers movie ? Isn’t he the star ?

No the movie is based on the journalist for Esquire who profiled Mr. Rogers, the journalist is being played by Matthew Rhys who is up for lead. Tom Hanks is campaigning in supporting.

Hustlers just went all out for J.Lo's FYC campaign.

Saw Ford v Ferrari tonight. It's exactly as traditional as you'd imagine it. Not trying to reinvent the wheel, but it's filmed well, has excellent sound design, and Bale's a lot of fun. Damon does a good job... the accent's kind of uneven, but he's always a reliable actor. That Noah Jupe kid is adorable, and a really fine actor.

I think it'll play well with the Academy voters who like their meat and potatoes films like Frost/Nixon, Moneyball, and Seabiscuit. You know how they'll throw Best Picture to films like this. Since Damon and Bale are both going lead, I think they'll cancel each other out. They've also been better in the past, so I see no urgency building to nominate them again.

There was early speculation about Tracy Letts, and he's very good, and has one special scene, but it's not a substantial enough role to get nominated in most years, much less a competitive one like this. I think if Bale [italic]maybe[/italic] had gone supporting he could have made some leeway, but the category's too stacked this year for the film to pick up any acting noms.

I suspect it'll get technical nominations like Sound Mixing and Editing... maaaaybe cinematography? Posssibly editing? I don't know... it doesn't really stand out in any departments other than the sound ones... but who knows. It could hit with the Academy and land in the 6-9 ranking on their ballots.

I say unless you're invested in this story, you can easily catch it on HBO or something.

Kind of hated Waves. That is all.

I've hated both his other movies (Krisha and It Comes at Night) so I am expecting to loathe Waves.

What didn't you like about Krisha and It Comes At Night? I haven't seen them, but was planning on it if I enjoyed Waves... now I'm not all that interested.

It's not that easy to sum up the problems with either film, but to speak in generalities, he's a very bad writer (and an even worse storyteller), he has no idea where to put his camera, and worst of all, he bores his audiences. And Krisha and ICAN were two very different styles and genres (though they shared some similarities), so you can't say it's his "style" like you would Cassavetes (who I think was a fantastic filmmaker, if not always completely successful) and that it's just not your thing.

I dread having to sit through this.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Without having seen those films, but knowing what they're about and how they were received, Waves seems like a reaction against them in that the film's pretty desperate about not boring you, especially during the ostentatious first half. I think the camera work is actually quite arresting in the film, but he makes some narrative decisions in the second act that completely undermine whatever strength the first half had.

Also, he's very clearly influenced by Terrence Malick, who he's actually had some sort of working relationship with. Trey worked on Tree of Life and Song of Songs. Some of the wider angled shots and camera moves are identical to what you'd find in Malick's films, except here it's infused with this millennial machismo, which makes for filmmaking that's perpetually trying to impress you. It's like Trey desperately wants you think he's a great filmmaker.

Eh... he's talented, of course, but Waves ultimately wasn't his story to tell, and judging by the second half of the film I think he knows that.

The woke crowd on Twitter seems to think that Lena Waithe movie will win all the awards, as will the remake of Little Women by their patron saint Greta Gerwig. The are particularly angry Scarlet Johansson is being mentioned for anything because they "cancelled" her several times.

I hate woke takes on art. It's sort of like religious people having takes on art. Their ideology prevents them from engaging with the text in an honest way and they've got all kinds of blind spots to how the Academy actually works.

Has anybody else seen The Irishman? Saw it yesterday and it was an absolute chore to sit through. Seriously this movie could've been told in 2 hours max, but stretched out to 3 1/2 hours it's numbing. It takes forever to get to the point, and by that time you don't care. And none of the three stars do anything revelatory or new to justify their acclaim; in fact, the only actor who really impressed me was Stephen Graham, an English actor who perfectly embodied a New Jersey mobster.

On the plus side, if you like old cars, it's a treat.

The Irishman is easily my favorite film of the year. Didn't feel like a chore to sit through at all, and I loved the performances. Stephen Graham is a highlight. I bet it was a blast for him to act opposite Al Pacino.

[quote]And none of the three stars do anything revelatory or new to justify their acclaim

That may be true for De Niro and Pacino, but Pesci's operating in a completely different mode here. He has a much more understated command of the screen, and his relationship with De Niro throughout the film is beautiful. The scene with the two of them dining while speaking Italian to each other was romantic as fuck.

Pacino's big, which we've seen film him, but there's a sense of humor at play here that felt distinct from his previous performances. He was so alive on screen, and it looked like even managed to surprise himself with some of his decisions. De Niro may not be revelatory, but he manages to sink into the character and that phone call scene is exceptional. He's also perfect during the closing act of the film.

Your response to the film is actually unsurprising, and I feared I'd feel the same way watching it, but I'm just thankful that I had a fulfilling cinematic experience.

Jesus Christ, Lena Waithe is an ugly woman.

r321, are you a Scorsese fan? I'm not. The only film of his that I truly loved was Hugo, probably because it was the least Scorsese film he ever made. I like Taxi Driver, but don't love it. Raging Bull and GoodFellas leave me cold. The Age of Innocence is a beautiful misfire. The best thing about Casino is Sharon Stone. Gangs of New York is a mess. The Departed is nothing more than a serviceable remake of a superior film (Infernal Affairs). I've probably forgotten some over the past 50 years. I'll be honest: I dreaded going into The Irishman, knowing the running time, but every time I go to a Scorsese film, I hope he'll convert me, make me understand all the acclaim. He didn't. The Irishman plays like an indulgent, extended greatest hits version of GoodFellas; the alleged elegiac tone is thoroughly missing to me.

Parasite is easily my favorite film of the year, so far. A movie where everything fits, and builds to a shattering climax, and which takes a very nuanced examination of class resentment.

I'm a Scorsese fan, but I wasn't always. You and I are remarkably similar. I could never relate to the machismo Scorsese explored on screen. I could appreciate the craft behind films like Goodfellas, Casino, Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, but like you said they left me cold. It wasn't until I saw the films no one talked about like After Hours, The King of Comedy, and Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore that I started to truly love Scorsese. His spiritual films like The Last Temptation of Christ and Silence are deeply moving, and I enjoy his colorful, vintage throwbacks like Hugo and The Aviator.

It wasn't until I saw The Irishman that Scorsese's gangster mode worked for me. I get the greatest hits take... that's definitely valid, but what's present in this film that's absent in the others is a tremendous amount of love. This was like... the warmest fucking Scorsese movie of all time. It's just three and a half hours of De Niro hugging Pacino and caressing Pesci's hand. It's about a man who's forced to kill the man he loves. I just found it so emotional, and I could feel how much Scorsese loved these actors. I was surprised by how much it worked for me, and the last hour of the film, where it turns into something more akin to Temptation or Silence, was so beautiful. I can see that it didn't play for you, but damn am I glad that it moved me.

Goodfellas and Raging Bull are masterpieces. Love to see Marty win a second directing Oscar. He should’ve had a second like three decades ago. He was completely robbed in 1990 to Costner’s showing US vistas in disguise for actual good directing. Seems to be Joaquins year, but they are giving Bob DeNiro the SAG lifetime award, so he will definitely be a presence on this year awards circuit. Irishman opened in Houston in one theater, but I’m gonna see it on Netflix. Has all the earmarks of a best pic. Long, stellar cast, directed by industry royalty.

Why hasn't this masterpiece been nominated for Awards?

It's ineligible... unless it plays at the Arclight or IFC Center before the year's end.

So what's the deal with Sasha Stone. I've been listening to her podcast for years... like... she really did play a part in my understanding of how the Oscars works. In recent years though it seems like she's becoming somewhat unhinged. She's super sensitive about almost everything, and seems to carry a chip on her shoulder about so many things. This year, she's making Dolomite Is My Name her pet project, and like... Marriage Story's on her shitlist for whatever reason. Anyway, someone on twitter critiqued Dolomite, and she got personally offended and threatened to block them. It's like she's always preparing for an attack.

I don't remember her being like this in the past, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention?

I believe it's always been a part of Stone's behavior. Way back in the awards season of 2002-03, when her site was still called Oscar Watch, she was adamant that there was absolutely no way that Diane Lane was going to be nominated for Unfaithful, even going so far as to write several essays on the site on how it wasn't possible...and then, of course, I laughed my ass off when Lane was nominated.

Saw Ford v Ferrari last night and quite enjoyed it. I know the Best Actor race is very crowded, and given that both Damon and Bale are competing against each other, I suspect they'll cancel each other out. Still, I think it will play well with the Academy -- a solidly crafted crowdpleaser for adults that also manages to be a hit -- that I think Tracy Letts may be carried to a Best Supporting Actor nomination -- he steals every scene he's in.

She's always been kind of crazy, but I think it's gotten worse in the past few years. It probably coincides with #OscarsSoWhite, because that really encouraged a lot of Oscar pundits to become more unhinged than usual, and Stone hardly needed the push.

That said, I'd be happy to see Da'Vine Joy Randolph get a Supporting Actress nomination for Dolemite and wouldn't mind an Eddie Murphy nomination, even though he wouldn't make my top five.

Thanks for the perspective guys. Yeah, I don't have a problem with her liking Dolomite. I haven't seen the film yet... should fix that soon. Her insights can be valuable, It's more her me against the world attitude that I find strange.

I don't think Da'vine did enough to warrant a nomination, but Wesley Snipes took thin material and really made a character out of it. I'd love to see him get a nomination.

Ugh... so Eastwood's Richard Jewell just screened and the initial responses are pretty strong. A few prognosticators are predicting it for major awards, including Actor and Supporting Actor for Rockwell. This season's too packed for this film to just come in and upend already stacked categories, right? It's probably just my anti-Eastwood bias speaking, but I don't want this film anywhere near the awards race.

No mention of Kathy Bates judging by the trailer alone she is begging for an Oscar. Judging by his last two films and his age of 89 his Academy Awards days are over. Many films first start as having early good word of mouth end up false. Not an Eastwood fan either so I hope so.

I've seen buzz for Bates. Who knows. I really hope they shut this one out a la Sully, which also had buzz.

Eastwood only makes Oscar bait movies. At his age he must have some kind of help. I never saw the movie he used real people who stopped a hostage situation but I read the action scenes were done well.

I found the Richard Jewell trailer to be very compelling and had high hopes for it (which seem to be validated by these initial reactions). I also think the story of a regular Joe who is put on pedestal by the media and then hastily thrown into the garbage once public sentiment turns is very au courant for the moment we’re in as a society right now.

Independent Spirit Awards are being announced live right now. Here's Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lopez - HUSTLERS

Taylor Russell - WAVES

Zhao Shuzhen - THE FAREWELL

Lauren “Lolo” Spencer - GIVE ME LIBERTY

Octavia Spencer - LUCE

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe - THE LIGHTHOUSE

Noah Jupe - HONEY BOY

Shia Labeouf - HONEY BOY

Jonathan Majors - THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO

Wendell Pierce - BURNING CANE

Noah Jupe is lead, but I'll take any attention he gets!

Best Screenplay:

Noah Baumbach - MARRIAGE STORY

Jason Begue, Shawn Snyder - TO DUST

Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie - UNCUT GEMS

Chinonye Chukwu - CLEMENCY

Tarell Alvin Mccraney - HIGH FLYING BIRD

Best Cinematography:

Todd Banhazl - HUSTLERS

Jarin Blaschke - THE LIGHTHOUSE

Natasha Braier - HONEY BOY

Chananun Chotrungroj - THE THIRD WIFE

Pawel Pogorzelski - MIDSOMMAR

Best Editing:

Julie Béziau - THE THIRD WIFE

Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie - UNCUT GEMS

Tyler L. Cook - SWORD OF TRUST

Louise Ford - THE LIGHTHOUSE

Kirill Mikhanovsky - GIVE ME LIBERTY

Best International Film:

INVISIBLE LIFE, Brazil

LES MISERABLES, France

PARASITE, South Korea

PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE, France

RETABLO, Peru

THE SOUVENIR, United Kingdom

Happy for The Souvenir!!!

Best Documentary:

AMERICAN FACTORY

APOLLO 11

FOR SAMA

HONEYLAND

ISLAND OF THE HUNGRY GHOSTS

Best Actress

Karen Allen - COLEWELL

Hong Chau - DRIVEWAYS

Elisabeth Moss - HER SMELL

Mary Kay Place - DIANE

Alfre Woodard - CLEMENCY

Renée Zellweger - JUDY

Good showing for Alfre!

Best Actor:

Chris Galust - GIVE ME LIBERTY

Kelvin Harrison - Jr., LUCE

Robert Pattinson - THE LIGHTHOUSE

Adam Sandler - UNCUT GEMS

Matthias Schoenaerts - THE MUSTANG

Robert Altman Award

MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach, Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler, Alan Alda, Laura Dern, Adam Driver, Julie Hagerty, Scarlett Johansson, Ray Liotta, Azhy Robertson, Merritt Wever

Best Picture

A HIDDEN LIFE

CLEMENCY

THE FAREWELL

MARRIAGE STORY

UNCUT GEMS

Lots of love for Uncut Gems, nice. Sandler up for lead Actor, never though I'd type that in my lifetime. Also they recognized The Farewell, but no Awkwafina nom.

Forgot Best Director!

Robert Eggers - THE LIGHTHOUSE

Alma Har’el - HONEY BOY

Julius Onah - LUCE

Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie - UNCUT GEMS

Lorene Scafaria - HUSTLERS

Lack of Baumbach is strange...

Wow, how much did Lopez have to shell out to buy those nominations for Hustlers?

Hustlers was great

Is Hustlers really an Indy film?

The ISAs go by budget.

No they don't.

Um, r356, they do consider budget as part of the qualifications:

Is there a budget ceiling for nominated films?

In 2006, the Film Independent Board of Directors set a budget ceiling for Spirit Award films of $20 million. In 2019, the Board increased the budget ceiling to $22.5 million.

R356 Why would you say something so incorrect so confidently?

Solve that and you solve all problems with humanity r358.

People can be as ignorant as hell, but they will steadfastly believe whatever bullshit they want as the truth, instead of trying to find out the actual facts.

[quote] [R356] Why would you say something so incorrect so confidently?

Because his statement was made as if this was the ONLY criteria. Budget plays an infinitesimal part of what qualifies a film for inclusion in the ISAs. The ISAs are a joke, anyway. Their rules are ridiculously fluid and change on a whim to fit the current year's fashions.

To make a statement: The ISAs go by budget- and say nothing else, makes it sound like this is the only qualifier, or even that it's the most important qualifier.

You’re right in that there are runtime and theatrical/festival requirements as well, but the film’s budget is obviously a significant one, especially in relation to the whole concept of independent cinema. At worst, I only gave one requirement. You, on the other hand, said they don’t go by that requirement. So either way, you were wrong.

Hated, hated, hated Marriage Story. It felt like less of a movie than Baumbach trying to get back at Jennifer Jason Leigh during their contentious divorce. The women characters are complete cunts and Driver's character is some poor, deer in the headlights naif who gets his balls handed to him by the witches.

I will say Driver is excellent (and I'm not a fan of his). Having a hard time rallying any support for Johanssen because her character is so awful, even though I know it's not her fault. And I can't believe Dern is going to get an Oscar for this truly pedestrian performance, simply because of her one proto-feminist screed monologue, which makes her sound unhinged.

[quote] You’re right in that there are runtime and theatrical/festival requirements as well, but the film’s budget is obviously a significant one, especially in relation to the whole concept of independent cinema. At worst, I only gave one requirement. You, on the other hand, said they don’t go by that requirement. So either way, you were wrong.

*slow clap* I hope the prize you've won is fantastic.

[QUOTE]The women characters are complete cunts and Driver's character is some poor, deer in the headlights naif who gets his balls handed to him by the witches.

You know... I've seen people say this film obviously takes Driver's side and paints the women as shrews and I didn't pick up on that... at all. I was profoundly sympathetic to what Scarlett was going through, and never felt like the film was a her vs. him situation. It always felt like they were trying to connect despite the wheels of the system driving them apart. I feel like I gotta respect people's takes though if they thought the women were cunts. I didn't get that at all, nor did I get that Charlie was some poor deer in the headlights. To me he came across as obtuse, stubbornly attempting to make his image of a "New York Family" stick when his wife wants so desperately to get out from under that.

Ehh, to each their own.

[quote]*slow clap* I hope the prize you've won is fantastic.

Lol, sorry if I came on strong. Was just playing into the bitchiness that is DL. I don't actually care all that much about the Spirit Awards' eligibility rules. I just like the spotlight they put on lesser known filmmakers.

Ooh, also, saw A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood tonight. Moved me to tears a couple of times, but it's a film about Mr. Rogers so that's to be expected. It's only treacly like... twice. Other than that, it's an honest and creative story about learning to forgive. The strongest aspect of the film is its screenplay, I think. The overall structure is quite charming, and reminded me of Michel Gondry's or Wes Anderson's work.

The performances are great across the board. Tom Hanks is wonderful in the way Hanks is always wonderful. I can see him getting nominated. I think it'd be a shame if he didn't considering how many times they've snubbed him since Cast Away. Supporting Actor is easily the most competitive category this year though, and so many men have compelling narratives and legitimate chances. There will be snubs, and they'll be painful.

[quote] Lol, sorry if I came on strong. Was just playing into the bitchiness that is DL. I don't actually care all that much about the Spirit Awards' eligibility rules. I just like the spotlight they put on lesser known filmmakers.

That's okay. I appreciate it. ; )

[quote] You know... I've seen people say this film obviously takes Driver's side and paints the women as shrews and I didn't pick up on that... at all. I was profoundly sympathetic to what Scarlett was going through, and never felt like the film was a her vs. him situation. It always felt like they were trying to connect despite the wheels of the system driving them apart. I feel like I gotta respect people's takes though if they thought the women were cunts. I didn't get that at all, nor did I get that Charlie was some poor deer in the headlights. To me he came across as obtuse, stubbornly attempting to make his image of a "New York Family" stick when his wife wants so desperately to get out from under that.

I hear you. I just felt like Baumbach made it incredibly clear right off the bat that Nicole was passive aggressive. In her first meeting with the divorce lawyer, she bitched and moaned and shitted all over her husband, saying she wanted this and needed that and he didn't do any of that, so of course it was his fault. But I never heard her say she asked for any of it. If you go along and present yourself as someone who is on board with what your partner is doing or how they're living their life and you don't speak up and say- Hey, I need this instead or could we maybe try this, then how are they supposed to know? I felt like she sandbagged him all the way through the film. But I also felt like she was kind of stupid and allowed people to influence her very easily, which is why she fell under the spell of her attorney so quickly. Not a brain surgeon, this character.

And it's odd because Dern's character comes off so much worse, yet you can feel Baumbach wanting the audience to root for her (but not Johanssen). I can muster a smidgen of sympathy for Nicole because she is kind of stupid and easily led and doesn't mean to be malicious, but I can't stand Dern's character and I feel the speech Baumbach writes her (which is so fucking lazy) is his way of trying to have it both ways. I'm going to shit on my female characters, but I'll spoon feed them some feminist bullshit in this one scene so they think I'm actually pro-woman. Cringy. I felt like the judge in the courtroom scene, just banging my gavel and asking them to get on with it already.

If we’re going to give an actor with a bad reputation a nomination this year for doing a good movie for once, I’d rather it be Sandler than Lopez. I liked both Hustlers and Uncut Gems (with reservations about both), but I’d much rather the Academy honor Sandler for going through the ringer over Lopez because she’s still fit at fifty and was completely convincing as a materialistic sociopath.

I was listening to a gay Oscar podcast (as opposed to all the straight ones) and the hosts are convinced we’re going to see a nomination for Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, even though no one is really talking about her. That could be the acting nomination every pundit bitches about.

I'm dreading Uncut Gems. I don't care for the Safdie Brothers, but also, I don't think Sandler has ANY acting abilities. I know people say if he had a role that would show him off, we'd see, but he's had at least two or three and he didn't rise to the occasion. I don't think he's capable.

[quote]If we’re going to give an actor with a bad reputation a nomination this year for doing a good movie for once, I’d rather it be Sandler than Lopez.

I mean, they're not even competing against each other so the Academy wouldn't need to choose between the two.

I'm excited for Uncut Gems. I liked Good Time just fine... wasn't head over heels about it or anything, but I loved loved loved the Safdie that played the brother. I thought he was the heart of the film, and was giving a genuine performance. Uncut Gems seems a little more compelling. Also, casting Idina Menzel seems inspired.

For having a strong and surprising start, Hustlers hasn't reached €150m worldwide. Maybe its already peaked?

This JLo thing is a joke.

There were some hot takes in OP.

I wouldn't rule out J.Lo though. I don't think she'll win Oscar, but she might. She has the Globe on lock for sure. SAG will go for her or Dern (probably Dern). Not sure about BurFTA. Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)? I thnk Zhao Shuzhen is a dark horse if the critics go ape-sh!t for her (she probably is a lock for LAFCA). That race seems very fluid right now.

The entire cast of Uncut Gems is excellent (except the Weeknd but he’s only in it for a hot second) but the Academy will never go for it. Too loud and obnoxious. Half my screening walked out at LFF.

I have always liked Adam Sandler but that cross dressing moviehe did is a hate crime. Jlo has at least 2 good solid performanc s under her belt it’s not like she all-of a sudden became Oscar worthy.

[quote]Hated, hated, hated Marriage Story.

Every year the critics and Academy go wild, "Little Miss Sunshine", "Juno", "Up In The Air", "The Tree Of Life", "Birdman" and real audiences go to see and react with WTF were they thinking? "Marriage Story" is this years WTF?

Two surprises at the Independent Spirit Award noms.

1- Really happy to see Diane get some recognition. One of the best films of the year.

2- Shocked to see Brittany Runs a Marathon get absolutely zero, especially when it's open to first timer categories as well.

R377, I liked all the movies you listed.

Have always been a Mary Kay Place fan and I loved Diane. Could Oscar be calling ? The scene when her son and daughter in law trying to convert her to their church was one of the best of the year.

Latest Feinberg forecast:

I know he has no chance as it is such a stacked category, but I just saw “Pain and Glory” and I wish that Leonardo Sbaraglia was in the conversation for Best Supporting Actor. He was incredible. The category was intended to reward performances like that, not stars willing to demote themselves like Brad Pitt (who is unquestionably lead IMO).

[quote] Have always been a Mary Kay Place fan and I loved Diane. Could Oscar be calling ?

My guess is no, only because I doubt IFC is going to spend money on a campaign for a film that's come and gone and already been sold to most ancillary outlets. Mary Kay Place would likely have to fund a run of screeners herself if she wanted to ensure people see the movie. It's a real shame. The ONLY thing that might turn it around is if she does phenomenally well in critics awards, which is a real long shot.

When Ann Dowd won the NBR for Supporting Actress in 2012 for Compliance, Magnolia refused to run a campaign for her for the same reasons as mentioned above. She decided to spend the money to take out some ads, but it came to naught. Of course, this was before she became the Ann Dowd of The Handmaids Tale and everything else on cable. My guess is if Compliance had come out this year, she'd have had it in her contract that she would get an awards push.

r381, Feinberg keeps listing Leo as a frontrunner for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and I just don't see or feel it. I'd bump him down to a possibility and move either Robert De Niro (The Irishman) or Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory) to frontrunner status.

Feinberg is also really high on the new Eastwood film, which is surprising. I know American Sniper did well, but that was right before the big Academy overhaul for a film that was that year’s box office champ. Richard Jewell won’t make $300 million, and even a decently-reviewed box office success like Sully flopped with voters, so I’m baffled why he thinks it’s so strong.

[quote]R377, I liked all the movies you listed.

It's because, for the most part, they're all good movies. I get the feeling R377 didn't actually see Marriage Story. That movie worked for the relatively packed audience I saw it with. It's not some baffling cinematic experience, but who cares, think what you want.

[quote]Feinberg keeps listing Leo as a frontrunner for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and I just don't see or feel it. Hahaha, Leo being the frontrunner for Hollywood's preposterous. It's far from one of his better performances. I don't know though... I'm not as hot on the film as others were, but I'm down to praise Pitt. Leo was fine... I don't know, I actually think he's rather limited as an actor.

The Richard Jewell response is troubling to me... people really went head over heels for it, and the last thing I want in such a strong year is Eastwood fucking it up with some maudlin tale. I haven't seen the film yet, so I can't speak to its quality. I just dislike the dude's films.

Saw Knives Out tonight. I fucking loved it. Such an entertaining film, and so well written. At best, I'm hoping for an Original Screenplay nomination. I hope it happens for Rian. I've been following his career since Brick, and it's been a pleasure watching him grow as a director. This is probably his best directed film, though Brick is still my favorite. Good stuff!

Ooh, and surprisingly it's Ana de Armas' film, which the advertisements don't make clear. She and Daniel Craig truly kill it in the film.

Who ARE half these people and 3/4 of these movies?!

R386, He certainly screwed up "Jersey Boys."

R388 We're not responsible for your ignorance.

R390, your response to R388 makes me think of a co-worker I have who totally floored me recently when we were discussing movies over lunch and she said, when I happened to mention the shower scene from "Psycho," that she had no idea what that was. I said, "You know, THE shower scene? Psycho? Norman Bates?" and she was like nope, sorry, never heard of it. I can't tell you how that nearly made me fall off my chair. I probed a bit and she said that she'd never heard of it or any other movies made by this guy Hitchcock that I was talking about.

Now granted, I realize that not everyone follows pop culture the way most of us do but some things you just assume are so deeply ingrained in the American psyche that they would be known to a person regardless of whether or not they had experienced it first-hand (e.g., not everyone is a Trekkie but know what "Star Trek" is). Go figure.

I have less than zero interest in sports but I know what the Super Bowl is, even though I've never watched one. "Psycho" been a television staple for fifty years. There was even a TV show recently based on it. Never seeing it? Sure, but I don't buy the not even hearing about it.

It's not hard for me to believe someone had never heard of the movie "Psycho" or Alfred Hitchcock. It is a movie from 1960, some people have basically zero knowledge of pop culture from before their time.

Not saying it is a good thing, but I've seen it plenty of times.

'Jojo Rabbit' was easily the best film I've seen all year. It'll be a shame if it misses out.

I think it'll get nominated. We need to see what more awards bodies go for, but that audience award from TIFF should help it.

Based on Twitter comments this weekend, the first reactions to 1917 are rhapsodic, with several saying it has immediately landed in front-runner status alongside The Irishman, Marriage Story and Parasite; there's particular praise for Roger Deakins' cinematography, Thomas Newman's score and lead actor George MacKay.

Yeah, I was following the buzz as well. I'm down for a sweeping cinematic tale. I've disliked how similar to Dunkirk the film's marketing is, but it seems like it's a completely different beast... much more emotional. I'm interested almost solely for the technical achievement. Love Deakins and even if he wins a second Oscar he'll still be under-awarded. And if this is what finally gets Newman an Oscar I'll be over the fucking moon!

George MacKay's a cutie. So is the Chapman kid. Should be good for eye candy.

Saw Marriage Story over the weekend. Never been a Noah Baumbach fan, and even though this one started out annoyingly (hard to feel sympathy for well-off people constantly whining), this was his first film that I ended up liking by the end. For one thing, his getting rid of the annoying shaky-cam in favor of a more still-but-fluid style was appreciated. And while I think his script stacks the deck, it really gives meaty roles to the actors: Scarlett Johansson has never been better, and Adam Driver is devastatingly powerful -- two scenes had me in tears thanks to his performance. Laura Dern plays the man-hating bitch lawyer with exaggerated zeal -- on the one hand, I find it difficult to believe that such an unlikable character could win the Oscar for the performer (she doesn't have a redemptive moment like Mo'Nique in Precious), but on the other hand I bet the folks in Hollywood all have experience with a Nora.

[quote]man-hating bitch lawyer

You know what's funny? Ray Liotta can be explosively aggressive as Adam's lawyer and everyone's just thrilled to see him back. Dern's lawyer acts just as aggressively while making salient points about society's different standards for men and women, and she's called a man-hating bitch. I mean, it's not surprising that this is happening... it's probably the most obvious response to have towards her character, but it's actually funny how that response actually proves the character's point.

Except, r400, that's the way Dern's character is written vs Liotta's character is not: from the start, Nora indicates her disgust with men and that she is determined to get back at them for perceived slights; she expounds on a ridiculous idea of how women's behavior is judged more harshly than men's, asserting a made-up social constructionist cause and ignoring an evolutionary/biological/psychological cause, and not even mentioning that men tend to get treated far more harshly by family court than do women; and she gloats over winning a 55/45 decision in Nicole's favor, revealing that she didn't want Charlie to be able to claim a 50/50 decision; conversely, Jay never indicates any extreme animosity towards women, and his in-court attacks are only taken in response to Nora's attacks.

Don't blame me for interpreting Nora as a man-hating bitch; blame Noah Baumbach, because that's the way he wrote her.

Eh, not blaming you for anything, I just find the whole thing ironic.

Anyway, I got the feeling that Nora's character has dealt with women like Nicole her entire career. You can see it in the scene where Nora asks Nicole if she wants to live in Los Angeles. Nicole makes it clear that she does, but hesitates, saying Charlie wouldn't like it. When Nora says, "We're interested in what [italic]you[/italic] want," she's at once comforting and empowering Nicole, but at the same time she says it with a force that indicates that she's tired of seeing women afraid to manifest their own destiny.

I also got the feeling that because of her gender and career, she needs to conduct herself in just as aggressive a manner as Liotta's Jay because divorce, at least at this level, is a cutthroat game where intimate, relational details are turned into artillery.

As for the 55/45 decision, well I'll give you that. That was an overly aggressive move on Nora's part, and super shady of her to do that behind Nicole's back. I think this ultimately speaks to the nature of her as a lawyer. Nora's always toeing the line between fairy godmother and bulldog, and she'll be whichever one she needs to be in order to win. You'll notice also that Nicole was hurt by this. The film doesn't treat this like a celebratory moment.

I think it's fine to have a character like her in the film because, at least to me, she makes sense in that world. The views she holds and the actions she takes all sound like something a high powered, female divorce lawyer would have. We don't always have to agree with her, but I think she contributes something special to the film.

All in my opinion of course. I respect yours, even though I may not feel the same way.

I don't understand why Joaquin is not the front runner to win Best Actor? This would be his FOURTH nomination and many feel he should've won for THE MASTER (his last nomination), so he has the overdue factor. Plus, he gives a great performance in the process and dominates/carries his movie. Furthermore, the film has been a smash and breaking records, left and right. Last year, BOHEMIA RHAPSODY being a blockbuster was enough to get Rami Malek a nomination and win. He wouldn't have if the film had tanked or just done okay. The same with Sandra Bullock in THE BLIND SIDE ten years ago.

Is the Academy too woke? If it's due to the controversy, they lose any credibility they had left. At least, with me.

Um, r403, it's my impression that Phoenix IS the front-runner.

I watched The Joker a couple nights ago. Didn't love it, and I felt like Phillips basically ripped out the script pages from every loner misfit who turns violent and assembled them into his own story.

Phoenix was great and I will vote for him because he deserves an Oscar, but so far I'd have to say that my pick would be Adam Driver for Marriage Story. I hated the film, and I largely think Driver is a bad actor, but he really nailed this role. I'll give him my personal Oscar, but I'll still vote for Phoenix.

I found the Joker a little paint by the numbers.

The Irishman on Netflix now. I wish some place close by was playing Parasite.

"The Irishman" today on Netflix!

Watched JoJo Rabbit today. Started out a little slow and silly but really came into its own. I liked it very much. Johanssen is far better in this than she is Marriage Story, and pretty much everyone in the cast is doing great work. Highly recommended.

Johansson really was so good in Jojo. I’d much rather she win Supporting Actress than Laura Dern

Well prepare to be disappointed, r409.

Goddamn, The Irishman is just HORRIBLE. Bloated, flaccid, flatulent garbage.

Goddamn, The Irishman is just BEAUTIFUL! Immersive, potent, dreamy cinema.

Welcome to the planet, R412. Hopefully the second movie you watch will be a better choice.

That's a weird comeback when the critics, who are forced to watch more movies than anybody, gave it glowing reviews r413.

So glad Karen Allen and Mary Kay Place got noms. It would be wonderful if they were considered for the Oscar. Especially Kay Place, who has made a career of doing amazing work that flies under the radar.

Diane. And The Irishman are reminders of the harsh reality of aging.

At least they didn't try and CGI Mary Kay Place to look 35 when she was supposed to be.

There are no critics anymore, R414. There are reviewers who are encouraged to be kind to films, who, for the most part, know zip about the art of cinema and are just moviegoers, and who took over for all the actual critics who have degrees in film studies and who were honest about the merits and shortcomings of what they viewed.

There is no such thing as film criticism anymore. There are maybe two critics who are unafraid to tell it like it is. Even people like Manohla Dargis, A.O. Scott and Stuart Klawans are terrified of losing their jobs so they've softened considerably.

R328, Stone is a moron. She came completely unglued on Oscar night when Stallone lost to Rylance. Who happens to be one of the greatest actors in the world.

r418, I think many critics are blinded by their admiration for certain directors/actors, in this case Martin Scorsese. The Irishman is a torturously long greatest hits package, but the critics are so beholden to Scrosese that they're treating it like it's the second coming.

Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) and Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers) showed much more cinematic originality and ingenuity -- as well as efficiency -- than did Scorsese in any single moment in The Irishman.

At least Stallone has a bigger dick. We've all seen both.

Rylance may be one of the greatest actors in the world, but he did nothing in the role he won an Oscar for.

Rylance also did nothing to campaign. That was a fascinating win... not too unlike Olivia Colman in The Favourite, though that's a more obviously Oscar-winning role. You think it was just down to pure respect for Rylance and his contributions to the craft, or did they just really not like Stallone?

[quote] I think many critics are blinded by their admiration for certain directors/actors, in this case Martin Scorsese. The Irishman is a torturously long greatest hits package, but the critics are so beholden to Scrosese that they're treating it like it's the second coming.

It's not possible that people just love the film and have differing opinions from you? I'm not spinning some yarn explaining why people hate the film. I can easily accept the notion that people disagree with my subjective opinion. Why get so worked up?

How did he get worked up? It was a very even tempered, logical post.

[quote] You think it was just down to pure respect for Rylance and his contributions to the craft, or did they just really not like Stallone?

Nah, Hollywood doesn't give a shit about Mark Rylance. He's much more known (and respected) in NYC. You can chalk his award up to one thing- Hollywood hates Stallone.

[quote]You think it was just down to pure respect for Rylance and his contributions to the craft, or did they just really not like Stallone?

I think actors like to think they're high brow artistes and Rylance is a respected theatre actor. Also, he had a great fairytale story. He had turned down working for Spielberg in the 80s in order to run a theatre company and felt he had lost his entry into Hollywood, but he met his wife while doing the job. Thirty years later he's cast in Bridge of Spies after Spielberg saw Rylance in "Twelfth Night".

What'd Spielberg want to do with him in the 80s?

I liked The Irishman but it had one major flaw while CGI making Pacino and Pesci were well done De Niro wasn’t and thought it was inconsistent.

Was.

Didn't mind the CGI but it most definitely didn't have to be 3 hours and 29 minutes. Paquin gets fourth billing but has one line.

Watched Irishman today. I broke it up into two parts. Agree with the poster above. It plays like a greatest hits package but still really well done. The screen comes alive when Pacino is on. Love to see him win a second Oscar for it, but supporting actor will be highly competitive this year. DeNiro and Pesci will probably get noms, even though their work is unremarkable. Surprised by the other actors like Paquin, Keitel and Cannavale given hardly anything to do, but Scorsese is loyal to his favorites. Scorsese has the best chance I think to win director considering he’s Hollywood royalty, while the better film Parasite will be winning best foreign film and that’s it.

R428, Spielberg wanted him for Empire of the Sun-I'm assuming for Nigel Havers' role as the dad.

Thanks. Well that explains why he cast him in like three of his last four movies.

There are people who think Zac Efron deserves an Oscar? LOL

I was just looking at BoxOfficeMojo, and noticed that Harriet has done really well, despite the mediocre reviews. Have people been too quick to dismiss Cynthia Erivo’s chances at a nomination? Only Little Women should out gross it, but none of the other films starring Best Actress contenders has a shot (Judy didn’t, Marriage Story can’t, Bombshell won’t). She’s not winning like people once predicted, but counting her out totally seems misguided.

Can "Parasite" Break the Best Picture Barrier?

I loved Parasite, but it can’t win. The Cuaron/Roma comparison doesn’t hold, because Bong Joon Ho isn’t an Academy favorite like Cuaron, Neon can’t mount a thirty million dollar campaign like Netflix did, and frankly Roma only got so much traction last year because it was a terrible year for movies, and it still lost to the worst film to win Best Picture since Crash (what is it about racism and cars with the Academy?).

The year the competition is much tighter. Let’s put it this way: I think Ford v. Ferrari might make the eighth or ninth slot this year, at best. Had had it been released last year, I think it would have had a good chance to win Best Picture.

Parasite was fantastic.

On the other hand, r438, the Hollywood Reporter currently has a reader poll up and Parasite is winning.

Atlanta Film critics awards.

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if their four wins for actor matches the Oscars.

Picture: Parasite

Actor: Driver

Actress: Zellweger

At this point, I think you’re right, R441. Driver, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern all look good, especially the two supporting front runners.

Complete Atlanta Critics results:

Top 10 Films

1. Parasite 2. The Irishman 3. Marriage Story 4. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood 5. 1917 6. Little Women 7. Uncut Gems 8. Knives Out 9. Pain and Glory 10. Apollo 11

Best Lead Actor: Adam Driver in “Marriage Story”

Best Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger in “Judy”

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt in “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern in “Marriage Story”

Best Ensemble: “The Irishman”

Best Director: Bong Joon-ho for “Parasite”

Best Screenplay: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Woo for “Parasite”

Best Documentary: “Apollo 11”

Best International Film: “Parasite” (South Korea)

Best Animated Film: “Toy Story 4”

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins for “1917”

Best Original Score: Thomas Newman for “1917”

Best Breakthrough Performance: Kelvin Harrison Jr. for “Luce” and “Waves”

Best First Feature Film: Olivia Wilde for “Booksmart”

Driver, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern please me. Well, I haven't seen Zellweger... that's maybe the more boring, traditional biopic win, but the rest are tops. I'd love to see Brad win for Hollywood. I wasn't that into the film when I saw it in theaters, but I rewatched it last week and I thought it was just so great, and Pitt's definitely next level in it.

Have to confess, the Atlanta selections seem rather predictable. I hope New York and LA throw us some curve balls, just to make the race interesting.

Who gives a fuck about Atlanta? Like they mean anything.

R446 is General Sherman.

[quote]Nah, Hollywood doesn't give a shit about Mark Rylance. He's much more known (and respected) in NYC. You can chalk his award up to one thing- Hollywood hates Stallone.

You can also chalk it up to the power that Spielberg still wields in the Academy. He worked those phones like a bitch for weeks, for Rylance, called in a lot of favors. That award was as much his as it was Mark's.

I'm sure that New York (especially) and LA will have some off the beaten path picks r445. But really critics aren't necessarily an accurate barometer of how the academy will vote.

I remember trying to explain that when Chalamet was dominating the critics awards but I knew there was no way he was going to win when it came to the Academy.

True, r449, but a selection by NY or LA might give a boost to a person or film that is just on the edge of a nomination by the Academy.

Wasn’t Rylance’s win the first for an actor in a Spielberg film?

When did DDL win for Lincoln?

How about a nomination for Sissy Spacek in The Old Man with a Gun? She was delightful!

Lincoln came out in 2012 r452, Bridge of Spies was 2015.

Is R453 writing from 2018?

Satellite Award nominations are out!

So we've got a few precursors so far, and from where I'm standing Marriage Story is looking strong. It benefits form being eligible for both the Independent Spirit Awards as well as major bodies like the Oscars, so it has widespread appeal. I suspected after leaving the film that this could Ordinary People its way through the awards season... the intimate family drama that gets in the hearts of enough voters to put it over the top. On the other hand, early frontrunners are almost always vulnerable. Marriage Story will become a target. Should be smooth sailing for Adam Driver though.

The Irishman seems to be doing strong enough, but it didn't get a picture or director nod from the Satellites... for whatever reason. I don't think this'll affect its Oscar chances at all though. That being said, Pesci's the performer from the film that I've consistently seen during this flurry of nominations. The love is there and it's strong, and it's totally understandable. Pacino's chances seem slimmer every day to be honest... he's not showing up all that much, and it seems like people are choosing Pesci over him instead of this being a double supporting nominee type of situation. We'll see what happens in the end, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's snubbed. Hell... wouldn't be surprised if Pesci's the only acting nominee.

I'm seeing a lot of love for Awkwafina, and I think that's sweet, and I like her, and love The Farewell, but they really should have utilized her humor more throughout the film. It shows up on occasion, and when it does it really lights up the joint, but for the most part she's so closed off, which makes perfect sense considering what her family's going through, but humor still exists in those moments, and it's something that would have really rounded out her character. Don't fear using the comedian's comedic qualities in the drama. It only enriches it.

Quick though on Ford v Ferrari. I think it's gonna have a strong showing. Honestly, it's a slick, middle of the road production that appeals to the proper demographic and is doing very well at the box office. The Oscar-winning star power is there, and it's a simply enjoyable picture. It's got enough prestigious gloss that the Academy won't feel too bad for embracing something so entertaining. I wouldn't be surprised if Bale showed up in actor. Don't count the dude out... I get the feeling they'll nominate him for anything, and he's super fun to watch in the film.

Last thoughts on actress. I think it's Zellweger, Johansson, Theron, WOODARD, and then one last spot... could go to Awkwafina, could go to Erivo, could go to Ronan, could go to N'yongo. Point is, I think Woodard's in. Just got that feeling.

"The Irishman" Named Best Film by National Board of Review:

More of the NBR winners:

Best Film: The Irishman

Best Director: Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actor: Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems

Best Actress: Renée Zellweger in Judy

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell

Best Breakthrough Performance: Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell

Best Ensemble: Knives Out

Best Original Screenplay: Uncut Gems

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman

Best Directorial Debut: Melina Matsoukas for Queen & Slim

Best Animated Film: How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite

Best Documentary: Maiden

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins for 1917

Top Films (alphabetical):

Dolemite is My Name

Ford v Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

Knives Out

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Richard Jewell

Uncut Gems

Waves

Top Independent Films (alpha):

The Farewell

Give Me Liberty

A Hidden Life

Judy

The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Midsommar

The Nightingale

The Peanut Butter Falcon

The Souvenir

Wild Rose

Top 5 Foreign Films (alpha):

Atlantics

Invisible Life

Pain & Glory

Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Transit

Top 5 Documentaries (alpha):

American Factory

Apollo 11

The Black Godfather

Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story

Wrestle

Home for Purim is getting a lot of Oscar buzz.

Is there one person who wants to see Richard Jewel ?

I do, r461. A tale of a government entity and a media organization spreading lies? It's incredibly timely.

I'm not interested... mainly because I'm not interested in Eastwood films, but it's fucked what they put that man through.

We all have been saying our fave Laura Dern has it in the bag but can another fave Kathy Bates win instead ?

I want Bates to win

Bates has an Oscar, so perhaps they'll still give it to Dern instead.

R466 Zellweger already has one too so does that matter?

True, R467, but think of it this way: Zellweger's Oscar was for supporting and this would be their chance to give her a leading one, whereas Bates is the opposite: she has a leading Oscar, so why give her a supporting one over Dern who's never won before? And by the way, who's on first?

I want to see Jennifer Lopez win so that a) Laura Dean doesn’t and b) DataLounge has a meltdown.

I loved Laura Dean in Fame.

What's Laura Dean up for? And, if nominated, will she bring her sister Paula to the show?

That’s DEEN, Rose/R471.

Latest Feinberg Forecast (post Gotham and NBR awards):

Feinberg’s predictions seem kind of nutty (Shia LaBoeuf over Tom Hanks for Supporting Actor?), but I think he might go 5/5 for Director. Baumbach is probably the shakiest, but I think the strength of his film makes him pretty safe.

The other four are Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon Ho and Sam Mendes.

Why did they go to so much trouble to make John Liltgow to look like Roger Avery ? No one knows what he look like.

Renee will be hard to beat at this point. Too bad the OP’s guesses from three months ago were so off track.

There are some fucking horrendous performances happening in Richard Jewell, starting with Olivia Wilde, who is just putrid. Goddamn, was she always such a terrible actress? I don't remember her in anything.

Nina Arianda is also really terrible, doing a ridiculous Russian accent for no reason.

Who can beat Renee, and under what circumstances? Ronan is the only one that seems even remotely plausible, since she’ll probably be in a decent-sized holiday hit, and she has two recent nominations where she was the likely runner up.

I used to think ScarJo had a shot, but Dern and Driver have dominated coverage of Marriage Story, and she hasn’t capitalized on a campaign narrative that should have been hard to beat. It’s essentially a repeat of the a Jennifer Lawrence campaign, on steroids (much bigger hits, much bigger snubs).

Also, Kathy Bates did nothing in Richard Jewell to warrant an award.

R456 Outside of the Satellite Awards I'm surprised Motherless Brooklyn is not getting the recognition I feel it deserves.

New York Film Critics Circle starts announcing their winners at 10am EST.

LA-LA-LAND !!!!!

Best First Film: Atlantics

Thanks r459 I was just about to ask if anyone had a list so I can watch some of the potential nominees.

I have only seen a couple so far and I like to see as many as I can. At least the ones that interest me anyway.

Parasite wins Foreign Film, unsurprisingly!

Joe Pesci (The Irishman) wins Best Supporting Actor.

Happy for Pesci.

Laura Dern wins Best Supporting Actress for both Little Women and Marriage Story.

Dern and Pesci owning the supporting races is something I can get behind.

All this talk about Laura Dern brings to mind the great job her dad did in his one scene as George Spahn in Once Upon a Time...

There may be two Derns in this year's Oscars race.

Hahaha, Dern's not getting nominated for Hollywood, but that was a tremendous scene. I thought Dern was so great in Nebraska. better than that year's winner at least.

They gave actor to Banderes! I gotta watch Pain and Glory. It finally came to a nearby theater.

I knew the New York Film Critics would throw in some surprising wins.

Holy shit! They just selected Lupita Nyong'o for Us as Best Actress!

You shouldn't be surprised r494. Last year the best actor went to Ethan Hawke for "First Reformed" and best actress went to Reginal Hall for "Support the Girls".

These critics have their own opinions and they don't give a fuck what the Oscar forecast is looking like.

That's a cool pick to be honest. I didn't love Us, but definitely respected the work she was doing. It's definitely a more interesting pic than another fucking biopic performance in a subpar film.

Hopefully this'll show more awards groups that they don't have to make the boring obviously choices and the Best Actress race can look a little more dynamic.

Best Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Logical choice. Dude, if he wins Original Screenplay he'll tie with Woody Allen for the most awarded individual in that category.

I think Sam Rockwell (who I love) is the new Johnny Depp. The Academy loves to nominate him even though he really doesnt deserve it.

Best Director: Safdie Brothers for Uncut Gems

Best Picture: The Irishman

Dope! Dope dope dope! Cool picks for sure!

I liked Rockwell’s performance in Jojo Rabbit. It was alternately hilarious and heartbreaking.

Awful choices all, except for Pesci.

[quote] Outside of the Satellite Awards I'm surprised Motherless Brooklyn is not getting the recognition I feel it deserves.

There's always The Razzies.

American Film Institute 10 Best Films:

The Farewell

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Knives Out

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Richard Jewell

Special Award to Parasite

Lupita won Best Actress at the NYFC.

We know, thanks

Marriage Story is a ripoff of Kramer v. Kramer. No way it wins any Oscars.

Us is vying hard for my pick for worst film of the year (neck and neck with The Irishman). I like Lupita, but she was ridiculous in that film (not her fault).

[QUOTE]Marriage Story is a ripoff of Kramer v. Kramer. No way it wins any Oscars.

Rip off... ehh... operating in the same sphere, sure. No way it wins Oscars? Hahahaha!

[quote]Us is vying hard for my pick for worst film of the year (neck and neck with The Irishman).

Never have I been so happy to disagree. Though Us ain't the best. Lupita's doing work.

AFI including Knives Out in their top ten is the single BEST moment of awards season so far for me.

Kramer v. Kramer was about the custody battle and single fatherhood. Marriage Story is specifically focused on the divorce, the custody issue is a secondary consideration. Aside from those distinctions, the films are also tonally very different

Yes, KvK was good.

Kramer was ok. The scenes with Meryl in them were good.

Meryl wrote her big courtroom scene (for which many think she nailed for the Oscar).

I always forget that the NYFCC often makes the oddest, and sometimes worst, choices.

Kramer won big at the 1980 Oscars. So discount Marriage Story. Voters love shit they can relate to, and practically everyone in Hollywood has been divorced. Especially with the weighted best pic ballot. Scorsese should win his second Oscar. I’m going for Irishman best pic, but as an early front runner it might not get to the finish line. I think Joaquin, Renee, Brad and Laura are great choices, but it’s early in the game.

Honestly given how common divorce is there have been comparatively few movies actually about divorce. The fact that people are reaching back to Kramer versus Kramer is telling.

Exactly, R519. Who really cares if the Academy honors two movies about the same subject every forty years? We’re going to only have a year off between the Academy throwing its tech prizes to two separate movies about English twinks at war.

So long as they don’t keep awarding movies about cleaning ladies fucking fish monsters, I’m okay with the Academy engaging in some repetition.

The buzz on “1917” is extraordinary. It may be the spoiler for The Irishman.

Meryl won NYFC BSA for Kramer vs Kramer, the NYFC BA for Sophie's Choice, Evil Angels, Julie & Julia then The Iron Lady.. 5!

I hope you're right, r521. The fact that 1917 is a movie that needs to be seen in a cinema to be truly appreciated may play well with the traditionalists in the Academy in this age of streaming and watching movies on iPods and Chromebooks. I think it will also do well at the box office, as there's already a strong want-to-see even among people who don't normally go to the movies.

[quote]The fact that 1917 is a movie that needs to be seen in a cinema to be truly appreciated may play well with the traditionalists in the Academy in this age of streaming and watching movies on iPods and Chromebooks.

Are you kidding? They are all running to the mailbox everyday waiting for their screeners.

No, I'm not kidding. I bet there's a strong contingent in the Academy -- particularly in the Director's branch -- that are cinema purists and only see movies on screeners under duress.

[quote]They are all running to the mailbox everyday waiting for their screeners.

These days, they are more likely to get a private code for a private download or streaming copy.

Those twink brothers on YouTube are saying that The Irishman doesn’t deserve a nomination for cinematography? What morons.

I love Irishman's cinematography, but it's not ostentatious at all, which is why they probably think that. The composition and lighting especially were highlights for me. I appreciated how stately it was.

Those twink brothers by the way... are they the ones that look like twins? They seem rather... slow? I don't know. I get a strange vibe from them.

The real Oscar twink is Ice Cold Films. Dude's just hot, and he's got a pretty sharp understanding of the game and articulates it well, which makes him even more attractive.

I’m no fan of The Irishman, but there’s no denying it is marvelously photographed.

Is anyone excited about Marriage Story being on Netflix now ?

No, dear. It doesn't get any less terrible on there.

Next up is Los Angeles film critics.

Best Actor, Winner: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Best Supporting Actor, Winner: Song Kang Ho, Parasite

What other winners ?

LA Film Critics winners in full:

Best Picture: Parasite

Runner Up: The Irishman

Best Director: Bong Joon Ho for Parasite

Runner Up: Martin Scorsese for The Irishman

Best Actor: Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory

Runner Up: Adam Driver in Marriage Story

Best Actress: Mary Kay Place in Diane

Runner Up: Lupita Nyong’o in Us

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers

Runner Up: Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell

Best Supporting Actor: Song Kang Ho in Parasite

Runner Up: Joe Pesci in The Irishman

Best Screenplay: Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story

Runner Up: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won for Parasite

Best Film Editing: Todd Douglas Miller for Apollo 11

Runner Up: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie for Uncut Gems

Best Cinematography: Claire Mathon for Atlantics and Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Runner Up: Roger Deakins for 1917

Best Production Design: Barbara Ling for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Runner Up: H Jun Lee for Parasite

Best Music/Score: Dan Levy for I Lost My Body

Runner Up: Thomas Newman for 1917

Best Animated Film: I Lost My Body

Runner Up: Toy Story 4

Best Documentary: American Factory

Runner Up: Apollo 11

Best Foreign Language Film: Pain and Glory

Runner Up: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Wonder if the attention from both NY and LA critics will help push Lupita into one of the 5 slots. Before I thought she was going to miss getting nominated, but now, maybe she will make the cut.

I'm thrilled for Mary Kay Place. it makes taking J.Lo's ridiculous win a little easier.

I would be thrilled if Mary Kay Place got an Oscar nomination.

Is Mary Kay Place playing Aunt Diane the wrong-direction drunk, doped-up soccer mom killer?

Naming the runner-up is a bit cruel.

I’m sure the runners-up are fine with it, R540. Lupita, for example, getting this citation only increases her chances of getting that 5th spot (as mentioned above).

Golden Globe nominations

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

“1917”

“The Irishman”

“Joker”

“Marriage Story”

“The Two Popes”

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

“Dolemite is My Name”

“Jojo Rabbit”

“Knives Out”

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

“Rocketman”

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Sam Mendes, “1917”

Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”

Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”

Todd Phillips, “Joker”

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

Christian Bale, “Ford v. Ferrari”

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”

Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”

Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

Cynthio Erivo, “Harriet”

Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”

Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”

Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”

Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Daniel Craig, “Knives Out”

Roman Griffin Davis, “Jojo Rabbit”

Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”

Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite Is My Name”

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Awkwafina, “The Farewell”

Ana de Armas, “Knives Out”

Beanie Feldstein, “Booksmart”

Emma Thompson, “Late Night”

Cate Blanchett, “Where’d You Go Bernadette”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTON PICTURE

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”

Al Pacino, “The Irishman”

Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”

Brad Pitt, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”

Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTON PICTURE

Annette Benning, “The Report”

Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”

Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”

Adam Driver is winning for Marriage Story. It’s a glorious performance. Joaquin wishes he had an ounce of Driver’s talent.

And what about this year's GOLDEN RASPBERRY AWARDS. It looks like they will be a tight race too.

Will CATS! sweep the nominations? Will Tyler Perry or Anne Hathaway compete for worst actress? Will Rebell Wilson finally be recognized? Will Nicolas Cage or Eddie Murphy continue their streak of worst actor nods?

Maybe POMS and CURSE OF LA LLORONA will be battling for worst film of 2019.. Hopefully Diane Keaton will be recognized for playing herself again.

I thought Rebel Wilson was hysterical in Jojo Rabbit. What would she get a Razzie nod for? CATS?

The Hustle, probably.

The Golden Globe snub for De Niro is pretty significant. Is it because he made fun of the Globes when he got his Lifetime Achievement Award, or is he less certain than people think?

R546 he’s up for producer of Irishman. I’m kind of surprised they went for Bale, considering how well Irishman did overall. The best actor lineup is highly competitive this year. I think DeNiro will be in for SAG and Oscar. Plus HFPA want to get as much celebrity ass in the seats at the Beverly Hilton, so by nominating Bale and spreading the actors out they are accomplishing this.

Maybe the Globes don't want the radical right/Trumpsters badmouthing and boycotting their show because of DeNiro.

I just sat through an excruciating hour and change of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. What a fucking saccharine disaster of a movie. Tom Hanks did all he could but when you hire the writers of Maleficent to construct a script about Fred Rogers, of course you're going to get a garbage dump about some character we don't give two fucks about instead of the actual compelling subject. Skip this garbage and re-watch the documentary from last year. Marielle Heller has definitely proven Can You Ever Forgive Me was a fluke.

I don’t blame Heller for the movie’s failings. The structure dooms it to be at least somewhat of a disappointment: you go in expecting a movie about Mister Rogers, but you get a movie about a magazine writer’s daddy issues. I thought Matthew Rhys, Chris Cooper and Susan Kelechi Watson were good enough that I wasn’t completely annoyed by that, but definitely see why other people would be.

Out of the contenders for major nominations, it’s very low on my list, but even then I didn’t hate it.

I was quite taken with Neighborhood and thought it came by its emotionalism honest. There were a couple moments (the subway singalong and the cafe silent-off) that were a bit much, but on the whole the structure worked on me, and so did the central relationship between Hanks and Rhys.

Perhaps one's enjoyment of the film hinges on how willing one is to spend time with Rhys' journalist? Personally, I thought he was very effecting, and did a great job communicating the rage underneath the put together exterior. Is it schmaltzy? Sure, but imagine how schmaltzier it could have been considering the subject at hand. We got off light.

Also, I'm glad this wasn't a Mr. Rogers biopic a la Judy and every other bland biopic designed with no genuine thought put into any element other than getting its lead an Oscar. There were plenty of other compelling elements at play that I never felt like it was drifting into boring biography.

Your mileage my vary though. I'm with R550 on being into the film, but it not being high on my list. I can speak pretty effusively about it, but it's not in my top ten of the year. Hanks doesn't even make my personal lineups, but I really did like the screenplay.

Honey Boy- another piece of shit. After watching it, I think Alma Har'el ought to shut her fucking mouth about no female directors getting nominated this year at the GGs. Her movie was an embarrassing mess.

Honey Boy's in my top five of the year. Easily one of the most moving experiences I've had in a theater in this year. I thought Shia was every bit as vulnerable on screen as Driver, and Noah Jupe was incredible. Loved the score as well. Just felt like an honest telling of a personal story.

I just started a thread about Honey Boy. I don't think it will happen, but I would be perfect okay with Shia Labeouf getting a nom for supporting actor.

My hope is that Honey Boy's not shut out entirely, but I've already prepared myself for that. Supporting Actor is a beastly category this year, and most of the actors competing for those five spots have a higher reputation within the Academy than Shia. In a season where even Dafoe has a chance of being snubbed, Shia's hopes seem even more fleeting. That being said, he's got a couple things in his favor. The Oscars love a redemptive arc, and this film satisfies that (for me at least). Former child actors like Jodie Foster are hosting screenings of the film, which will help it get seen, and with her cosign might give hesitant viewers the proper context to understand what Shia's saying. Finally, Honey Boy's the type of awards sleeper that could generate a lot of concentrated, passionate support, which can go a long way in the voting process, and if those voters feel Supporting Actor is too packed for Shia, they get him into Original Screenplay as a sort of nomination for himself and the film as a whole.

At this point I'd say that's the film's best case scenario.

My hope is that Rebel Wilson finally gets her long-deserved Razzie nomination for her performance in either THE HUSTLE or ISN'T IT ROMANTIC.

CHILD'S PLAY deserves Razzie nominations.

I don’t know why anyone acknowledges the Razzies anymore. They’re basically the Every Asshole on the Internet award show. Yeah, congratulations on letting us know that you think random celebrity of the moment sucks. I couldn’t have heard that opinion anywhere else.

Everything about their shtick, like that cheap joke of nominating every actor in drag for Worst Actress, is pathetic and irrelevant at this point.

Agreed. A strong case can be made for the meaninglessness of all awards shows, but even in that argument the Razzies would the most meaningless. The only time it's relevant is when an actor actually goes to accept the award, and that's only happened... what... twice/

Shia was fucking terrible. Hammy, unrealistic performance. If one MUST nominate something from Honey Boy, make it Noah Jupe, who acts rings around Shia without even breaking a sweat.

Shia's only hope is original screenplay.

Hammy? Unrealistic? I don't know... I definitely felt like he intentionally wrote himself opportunities to ACT, but I was right there with him emotionally. I do think it's a bold performance, and he's making some specific choices. I suppose whether those choices work for you or not is a matter of opinion. Worked for me!

When the Laundromat is mentioned I can only think of My Beautiful Laundrette and how much I loved it.

When the Laundromat is mentioned I can only think of My Beautiful Laundrette and how much I loved it.

LOL when is The Laundromat mentioned?

The Laundromat will not be mentioned anywhere. Sorry, “M”

SAG NOMINATIONS!!!

[bold]Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:[/bold]

Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”)

Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)

Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)

Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”)

Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)

[bold]Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:[/bold]

Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”)

Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)

Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”)

Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”)

Renée Zellweger (“Judy”)

[bold]Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:[/bold]

Jamie Foxx (“Just Mercy”)

Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)

Al Pacino (“The Irishman”)

Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”)

Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)

[bold]Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:[/bold]

Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)

Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”)

Nicole Kidman (“Bombshell”)

Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”)

Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)

[bold]Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:[/bold]

“Bombshell” (Lionsgate)

“The Irishman” (Netflix)

“Jojo Rabbit” (Fox)

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony)

“Parasite” (Neon)

Does The Irishman have an eventual plot? I decided to watch it on a long flight, because otherwise I knew I probably wouldn't sit down to watch such a lengthy film at once. I made through an hour and half and it was nothing but "Meet this character! Now view a 5-10 minute aside about them." I had to turn it off to watch something more exciting as it was making the plane ride seem even longer.

Cannot believe Taron Egerton made the cut and Banderas didn't.

Seriously who's dick did Egerton suck to get all these nominations?

Well, a Golden Globe nomination was a foregone conclusion because he was in a musical, and they are always desperate for qualified nominees in the comedy/musical categories. But the SAG nom is ridiculous.

Clearly every gay guy in the guild voted for me, thanks for the love guys!

I thought Egerton was great in Rocketman. And he did all his own singling just like Zellweger.

Sorry, but Robert DeNiro does not deserve a nomination for The Irishman if that’s who you’re thinking should replace him.

I believe if you actually read my post, you'd see who I thought should have gotten it over Egerton.

No wonder you liked him.

*singing

I was responding to R569. I didn’t even see your post, R573.

“No wonder you liked him” also doesn’t even make sense.

Sure, Jan.

Honey, let it go. You’re not that important.

Egerton's been campaigning like a motherfucker ALL. YEAR. This SAG nom is, I'd assume, the fruits of that labor, plus whatever impressive stuff I assume he does in the film. Haven't seen it yet.

The Irishman's probably my favorite film of the year and I can't imagine how miserable I'd be watching that on a plane. Jesus Christ.

No Little Women? Yikes.

Following the lead of Rami Malel who campaigned hard last year r478. Campaigning can definitely help.

I'm really starting to think that Parasite could very well win Best Picture at the Oscars -- its presence on the Best Ensemble category is amazing and indicative of the passionate support for the film.

Roma couldn't do it last year, hard for me to imagine then giving it to a foreign language film over Hollywood, Marriage Story, or Irishmen.

Yeah, we need to see how the race pans out before we can make any definitive statements, but Parasite's been having a remarkably strong awards season so far, and is perhaps over-performing even relative to the exceptional hype. Comparing it to Roma is tricky. Bong doesn't have the reputation that Cuaron does, but on the other hand I'm sensing a lot more excitement around him than there was around Cuaron. Also, Parasite's a less challenging and more overtly entertaining picture than Roma, which can only help it. There's no, "You have to really pay attention to the film and give it time," like there was with Roma. Parasite moves at an efficient clip and is perpetually building narrative stakes throughout. It's the type of gripping, universal filmmaking that gets people going. It'd ultimately be foolish to write it off, but it won't be a cakewalk.

No M for Big Little Lies?!

Big Little Lies was lucky to get anything at all after that second season. Meryl wasn't great in it... no one really was save for Dern, and even the writing for her character was uneven.

Will Kathy Bates still get an Oscar nomination? Has anyone seen her performance and is it any good? Love to see her win!

R586 Bates is respected and supporting actress is going to be rather fluid. Dern and Lopez are locks and probably Robbie. But the other two maybe three are up for grabs. Bates could get in.

Bates was in a late screener, which usually hurts at SAG. That’s probably why Ronan didn’t get in, either. I’m giving up hope for Florence Pugh, though.

This helps explain Bates’s absence. She submitted as Lead accidentally. So she still looks good to replace Kidman out of the SAG lineup.

So Cats won’t get anywhere near the Best Picture lineup and Richard Jewell seems dead, except maybe for Kathy Bates. Is this actually going to be a really good lineup? Or will the Academy do something boneheaded like nominating Bombshell for anything other than acting and makeup?

The Academy May feel like when they gave two Oscars to Francis McDormand Hey lets give Kathy Bates two Oscars !

What happened to Willem Dafoe's lock for "The Lighthouse'. Seems Anthony Hopkins for "The Two Popes" snuck in there but will the Academy put Dafoe back in?

The race for best actress comes down to those listed below. It will be five of the following:

Awkwafina Cynthia Erivo Renee Zellweger Charlize Theron Alfre Woodard Saorise Ronan Some foreign woman in some foreign movie we've only heard mentioned once.

Excuse me, R593?

I think Lupita is a lock. I liked Cynthia in that Bad Day movie but I don’t want her nominated because I have a friend who think his opinions are facts and thinks Harriet will get all kind of awards ( judging only by the trailer)and I want him to be wrong.