Justin Trudeau Set To Lise Elrction

There's literally no evidence to back this up.

Didn't JT win the debate?

R1, you may want to look at the polls, dear. He now stands no chance.

R1 Sadly OP is right...all the polls have Trudeau down. It appears the Liberals are bleeding support to the NDP.

There is some good news, however, if Trudeau can do a deal with the NDP he won't have to resign as PM. An Lib-NDP deal (similar to what the British Conservatives have with the DUP) would mean Trudeau could hold the confidence of the House and not have to resign as Prime Minister.

I think most people thought the outcome this time was a coalition govrrmment.

R3 This appears to be the most likely scenario now. Neither the Conservatives or Liberals will win an outright majority. I'm betting on the Conservatives will win the most seats outright. Conservatives seemed to have maxed out around 30 to 32% (you need roughly 36% of the popular vote to win a majority), and Liberals have dropped below 30 in every poll since the middle of the week.

The Bloc are surging in Quebec and Liberals have lost their seat advantage. NDP are surging in Ontario and BC having jumped 8 points in one week thanks to Singh's strong performance. Added to the bad news for the Liberals, advanced polls are open this weekend right when the NDP are surging and their own support is down. The NDP will be the king makers and they will likely make a deal with the Liberals to keep the Conservatives out. Trudeau will likely have to make a deal on pharmacare and increased taxes for the wealthy if he wants to stay in power with NDP support.

Will the Greens be invited into the coalition? Probably not.

So what the heck happened? I thought Trudeau had bounced back and was in the lead.

Justin and the hottie from the Bloc would make an awesome coalition. Justin is the bottom in the relationship, of course.

My brother had volunteered for Bill Morneau's re-election bid in Toronto-Centre and while he is expected to win, the feeling on the ground is the Liberals are done. Unless Trudeau can pull a rabbit out of his pert ass, Liberals will have to do a deal with the NDP (maybe the Greens and even Bloc) to stay in power.

If the conservatives get to 36% in the polls, we're fucking done.

R8 Liberals won't want to do a deal with Bloc with supports separating from the rest of Canada.

R7 Trudeau bombed in the first English debate and Singh performed very strong calling Trudeau out on his record of breaking promises. Basically Singh has managed to re-capture the progressive vote who were lukewarm to Trudeau this time around. Trudeau did much better in the second debate, but it seems to have no effect. The NDP are surging and this late in the election it's unlikely Trudeau can get progressives back.

If the first English debate was the most recent, I could swear the articles I read (in the US) wrote that Trudeau emerged relatively untouched. So I assumed he'd stay in the lead.

R9, ask your brother about this ad. I'm a Liberal but this billboard had me rolling my eyes.

The problem with Singh, R10 is that he tells a lot of lies and half-truths. He's getting to be as bad as Scheer. Plus, he uses way too many soundbites and catchphrases. He'll never, ever be able to deliver half of what he says, so easy for him to make all kinds of promises.

R12 So you'd rather have Scheer as PM than Singh? NDP won't form a government but they will be the balance of power at this point.

R11 the most recent one was the second English debate. Trudeau did, indeed, do much better in this debate, but it hasn't helped him.

Is there really no chance of the NDP winning outright?

I'm jealous that Canadians get to have more than 2 parties.

Trudeau looks older in that billboard and the smile looks phony

Of course not, R13, but I don't like him or the NDP. Full of promises they can't fulfill and attacking Trudeau and the Liberals with lies and half truths. I'm a Liberal and have already voted for my Liberal MP. Singh wants to be seen as the new "rockstar" progressive, he may get his wish, but as Trudeau knows, that could come back to bite him in the ass. I liked Singh in the beginning, but have lost any faith I had in him over the last two weeks or so. Rewatch the debates and his scrums, he's not really a good communicator. All he does is use the same catchphrases over and over again, just like Scheer and it's apparent he doesn't know what he's talking about, politically speaking.

Trudeau (like father Fidel) is corrupt and racist.

Silly Justin need to find his true vocation.

He can truly satisfy his fans by remaking all the soft-core Patrick Swayze movies.

That way he doesn't have to worry about hard stuff ...like..thinking and talking at the same time.

R14 It's technically possible, but right now unlikely. The NDP are hovering at the 20% mark in the polls, they need to jump to about 30% before they are in minority government territory. With only 8 days until the election, that might not be possible. However, the NDP are now the only party with any forward momentum.

Well, you can go right out and thank an NDP voter if Scheer wins.

R21 Typical Liberal line. We wouldn't have Doug Ford as Ontario Premiere if Liberals had got off their high horse and voted NDP. Once the Ontario Liberals started campaigning harder against the NDP than Ford, I tore up my Liberal membership.

You can’t ever come back from Blackface.

I voted for the NDP provincially, r22. I believe in strategic voting, and in most ridings it doesn't make sense to vote NDP.

r24 = R21.

OP, the Liberals have lost ground over the last week, yes.

Bu the numbers are still close and there is still a week left.

You can see in your own projections that the Conservatives are just barely in Minority territory and nowhere near a Majority yet.

R20 & R22, an increase in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives. We saw that in 2011 when Harper won a Majority and in 2018 when Ford won a Majority.

The NDP is only able to beat the Conservatives in a small number of seats in Western Canada. It is the Liberals that beat the Conservatives in Ontario, Quebec & Atlantic Canada.

The problem seems to be a surge of the Bloc in Quebec plus a departure of Liberal support in other directions. It bears noting the Conservatives are up too... it isn't just a run to the NDP. Which means the Liberals probably try to govern as a minority without a formal accord... because they risk alienating further everybody who shifted conservative. The swing hasn't been exclusively left so getting into bed just left will hurt them in the subsequent election.

Trudeau's been so arrogantly woke... he had such good will but like so many uber progressives he had to show off... shame... generally the Liberals are best for the country.

R27: Wrong. There are seats in Ontario that the NDP can win and in Nova Scotia. In Qubec, there will be a few NDP and apparently more Block Quebecois, unfortunately. Why is no one talking about the Green Party? I expect them to win a handful of seats this go around.

It would be nice to be able to correct errors in posts. I keep seeing this post as "Justin Trudeau set to lose erection"

The national average shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied. It's entirely possible people vote strategically and return to the Liberals to prevent a Conservative minority. I was indifferent to voting, personally, but now will vote Liberal.

R29, even the Conservatives admit that they do well when the NDP vote surges. Look at history. (eg. 2011 & 2018). The NDP has never won the 905 (Toronto suburbs) and they can't win Quebec or Atlantic Canada. They don't even do as well in the West as they used to under Ed Broadbent.

And the NDP is not in contention in many seats at all in Atlantic Canada, or Quebec.

And yes, the OP could have proofread his thread title.

Exactly, R27!!

R21 I'm voting Liberal, bit it is not people's sacred duty to vote for Liberal. A government has to earn re-election. If Scheer wins it isn't because people voted NDP it's because Trudeau & the Liberals ran an shit campaign and never followed through on many of their 2015 promises. They have no one to blame but themselves.

Exactly, R31.

It's certainly possible that Trudeau & the Liberals may lose.

But with a week left (a lifetime in politics), voters may go back to the Liberals if they see the Conservatives winning or are worried about the 53 Billion in Cuts to the budget in the Conservative platform.

So why is everyone so freaked out if they are tied, per R31?

R36 because the popular vote in Canada means nothing. It comes down to the number of seats. Currently the conservatives have a 20 seat advantage over the liberals.

R37, that's a small seat advantage with a week left to go and the Conservatives about to get hammered over the 53 Billion in Cuts.

[quote]it's because Trudeau & the Liberals ran an shit campaign and never followed through on many of their 2015 promises.

It is also possibly it's because, in part, the Liberals made a bunch of far left promises they should never have made (the fiasco over reforming the electoral system to kill first past the post is the best example.. they plainly never had any intention of doing it and it was a self inflicted wound to disappoint people by raising the prospect.).

I agree with R35.... enough people will look at the current state of affairs and return to vote Liberal on a strategic basis, not out of affection, but pragmatism.

Canadian voters are pretty pragmatic overall. That is why successful governments govern from the centre. That is why Justin made many of the choices he did that are now being called broken promises.

OP, which seat projection is that, btw?

There are several seat projection sites/polls, and without citing your source, we can't know how accurate it is.

R39, I agree with you on that one.

It was stupid of the Liberals to say they would change the entire electoral system in one election. That electoral system has been in place in the UK, Canada & the US for the past 2 centuries and it was stupid to say it could suddenly be changed.

Hopefully. I voted for ndp yesterday and most of the people I know will be voting for them too.

People don't seem to understand how the system works. As the incumbent Prime Minister, Trudeau remains Prime Minister until he offers the Governor General his resignation. If we're in a minority situation, Trudeau has first shot at trying to form a government. If the Liberals and the NDP have more seats collectively than the Conservatives, they will likely form an agreement to keep Scheer out. Only if becomes clear that Trudeau cannot govern (have the confidence of the house) then he will resign.

he should go back to substitute teaching but this time keep your hands off the female students - racist groping entitled perv.

[quote]Hopefully. I voted for ndp yesterday and most of the people I know will be voting for them too.

1. Which riding/province are you in?

2. Why are you voting NDP?

R44, do you work for Rebel Media?

[quote]voters may go back to the Liberals if they see the Conservatives winning or are worried about the 53 Billion in Cuts to the budget in the Conservative platform.

Yes, based on that, it might be too soon to panic. A lot of people seem disgusted by Scheer's timing, releasing his platform not just after the last debate, but late on a Friday before a long weekend. The word "sleazy" comes to mind. Or, as one headline on cbc.ca said, "nefarious."

Polls that were published this morning can't include people's reaction to that situation. Maybe, after two or three days, we'll see a shift back from the CONs. Fingers crossed.

He’s so fucking goofy and seems to spend more time being a celebrity than focusing on politics that I’m not surprised.

R46 Rebel Media are rebels! We don't kowtow to the standard, heavy-handed, bathetic Leftist party line.

OP, what's the source of those projections?

Globe & Mail:

Conservatives running Facebook ads falsely accusing Liberals of planning to legalize hard drugs on Chinese-language page

I'm feeling that R39 is right, and strategic voting will let the Libs squeak by with a minority. Blanchet and the Bloc are the wild card. Scheer has been an uninspiring campaigner, and there are recent polls that indicate he has not pulled ahead.

I'm wondering also if the Bloc support is overestimated.

The Bloc underperformed in 2011 & 2015, and maybe that will happen again.

Even conservative-leaning journalists like Don Martin are calling the Cons out:

Now we see why this was released late on a Friday before a long weekend. Some big cuts with few specifics.

Jean-Marc Leger, Quebec pollster, just posted these seat projection averages:

Liberal 140

Conservative 134

Bloc 31

NDP 27

Green 5

PPC 1

R23 is right, the blackface fiasco stunted his campaign.

The Conservatives have no natural allies, other than PPC, with which to form a government, right? They would not reach out to the Bloc, making outrageous promises?

R56, Trudeau recovered from blackface, as the polling showed.

It's the strong performances of the NDP & BQ which have hurt him.

But as the new Leger projections above show, the Liberals are still in the game.

R45: He's voting NDP because he wants to. He owes you NO explanation, Your Majesty. Sit down.

R41: Bullshit, New Zealand changed it in one election, all electoral changes are in one election. First Past The Post is a terrible electoral system, especially in a country with 5 national parties. Trudeau wanted that second majority government so they just let that promise flop. Well he ain't gonna get it now. Maybe a Liberal minority will be required by the NDP and the Greens to bring in Proportional Representation, finally. Silver lining.

R32: Past is not prologue, there is always a first time. Strategic voting is voting for the candidate who can beat the Conservative in your riding. In most of the West and in certain Ontario ridings, that's the NDP, DEAR. In those ridings, voting Liberal splits the anti-Con vote. In Quebec, few ridings have the NDP as the only alternative, and if these polls hold, most will be the Bloc, if you can stomach voting for a nationalist party with separatist tendencies. And in a very small collection of ridings, you better vote Green or you're splitting the vote. This is not a Presidential election, every riding will have different candidates on their ballot.

I've done some canvasing for Carolyn Bennett in my riding in Toronto-St. Paul's. Carolyn will win the riding and Liberals will hold on to fortress Toronto, but internal polls have shown we've lost our seat advantage ins Ontario, Quebec and BC. Best case scenario now is a minority Liberal government. Expect the Liberals to target the NDP hard in the final week.

R60 thanks for the update.

Yes, Dr. Bennett has held that riding since 1997, and even held on during the Ignatieff wipeout of 2011.

The Liberals will also need to target the BC in Quebec.

R59, I didn't say he couldn't vote NDP, I just asked which riding he was in.

And the Conservatives are totally opposed to Proportional Representation -- they aren't going to allow it.

And the NDP is being unreasonable by insisting on ONLY Proportional Representation.

So a compromise is needed on Electoral Reform -- like Preferential Ballot.

R58 The black face scandal didn't actually harm Trudeau. It was his performance in both the French and 1st English debate that heavily damaged him. Even when I talk to friends who will vote Liberal most people have lost confidence in him. I think the tide has shifted to the point where people no longer see him as a progressive young PM, but rather someone who is all style but no substance.

R61: Quebec hates British Columbia that much?

R64, I meant BQ. They need to win back votes from the BQ.

[quote]It was his performance in both the French and 1st English debate that heavily damaged him.

The English debate, yes.

But Trudeau did well in both French debates. French commentators like Chantal Hebert said Trudeau was good in both.

R62: OH NO, dear. You asked WHY. And fuck the Conservatives. We don't need compromise, introduce Proportional Representation and tell those opposed to win the next election and repeal it if they hate it so much.

Shit, wonder what this is about?!

R68, the right-wingers have ramped up the hate so much against Trudeau that I'm not surprised he has to wear a bullet-proof vest now.

R68 saw that. Interestingly Trudeau didn't mention Singh or NDP once tonight. Some talking heads are suggesting it's a sign he is aware we're heading for a minority.

R67, why does it HAVE to be Prop Rep? Why can't it be another form. I'm open to electoral reform, but it's just as wrong for the NDP to insist it has to be PR as it is for the Cons to say they will block any attempt to change FPTP.

Current seat projects have Conservatives ahead but Lib/NPD/Green would have more seats.

Yes, R72.

Although as Leger said above, *some* seat projections have Cons ahead and *some* & have Libs ahead.

R71: No it's not for either. The Cons suck for doing it but it's in their best interests to do so. It's in the best interest of the NDP to fight for Proportional Representation, plus it's also the right thing to do. It NEEDS to be some form of PR because any system lacking in proportionality is distorting the national vote. People could finally stop voting against something and for something.

You know what the fighting is? The constant arguing between the Liberals, NDP & Greens.

Just like all the arguing between the Democrats in the U.S.

And you know who benefits in both countries? The right-wingers.

OP, there are multiple projections, some with the Liberals winning. You, of course, cherry picked the projection with the worst Liberal result.

R75: So change the voting system so everyone can fight and no one can benefit. Additionally, this line of thinking leads to "everyone shut up and do what the largest party wants, even if you disagree with it, because the other side is WORSE" At some point, in both countries, people get sick of that. You can only rely on fear for so long.

The system has also been reviewed and rejected in some provinces, most recently Ontario, I think. People don't like the instability of coalitions. They like to know what they're voting for. The problem for the smaller parties, like the NDP or the Greens, is they have virtually no chance of forming a government and occasional chance of influencing one. They don't like it.

[quote]Current seat projects have Conservatives ahead but Lib/NPD/Green would have more seats.

Which is why whoever wins will wind up governing from the centre. Formal coalitions are rare. Assuming the Liberals win the minority, they won't sign a formal agreement with the NDP or anybody else. They have to be mindful of who came second - presumably the Conservatives. That says go to the centre, not to the left. There is a big chunk of the electorate goes both ways - but those ways are Liberal or Conservative. The Canadian independents. They don't tend to stray too far left. If they did, you'd see more outcomes with the Liberals and the NDP swapping places in the standings. You don't. Which is why proportional representation referendums or other alternative voting proposals generally fail in the cold light of day. Nobody wants to give up their shot at majority, which most of the time prevails. I know that frustrates the niche voters, but majority rules. A Liberal, usually, is not a New Democrat nor a Green.

338 Canada Electoral Project predicting a Liberal minority of 148, with a potential to reach a majority of 206. It gives the Conservatives 131, with potential to reach 182. 170 is a majority.

More interesting is that the Bloc comes next, 28. The NDP follows with 24. The nDP isn't surging. Doing better, but not surging.

It is laughable because every single DLers said there was NO WAY he would lose re-election, And now he has

[quote] Interestingly Trudeau didn't mention Singh or NDP once tonight

NOT TRUE - for the first time he mentioned the NDP - which tells me that Liberal internal polling shows the NDP eating Liberal support, which helps the Conservatives

[quote] Lise Elrction

Lise Elrction? Is that Angela Merkel's slutty minister of finance?

[quote] You know what the fighting is? The constant arguing between the Liberals, NDP & Greens.

Which is why Harper ran for re-election in 2015 - his thinking that the splintering on the left, helps Conservatives win.

[quote]every single DLers said there was NO WAY he would lose re-election, And now he has

Oh my stars. The Scheer troll now has a crystal ball.

[quote]And now he has

I wasn't aware that the Election Results were in yet.

R86 all the polls show Trudeau is falling like a rock -

R87, as R72, R76, & R78, posted, you can see there are multiple projections showing different numbers.

R88 you only showed one

I think they're trying to say that rightwing voters are too ignorant and uninformed to choose the PPC over the CPC, because apparently a party vocal and sincere about its platform and for ending corporate welfare, and doesn't lower itself to misquoting others, violating copyright, holding back its platform until after the debate isn't what uninformed voters greedy for tax cuts would choose. Bernier is a leader, Scheer is a toady for Harper.

For R89:

Projections, Oct. 11 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP-GREEN)

133-139-32-25-7 @politicstcan

134-137-32-28-5 @2closetocall

134-139-32-28-3 @CdnElectWatch

136-133-32-33-4 CEW, no turnout adj

139-137-33-24-4 @EricGrenierCBC

148-131-29-24-4 @Qc_125

149-131-26-29-2 @calculatedpoli

149-126-31-25-7 @LTossup

[quote] It is laughable because every single DLers said there was NO WAY he would lose re-election

DLers said there was NO WAY Hillary would lose the election, too.

r46 is hurt

Exactly R92 - why is it that DLers are in denial about the fact anything can happen in an election, That there are no sure things anymore

Why, r93? What is rebel media?

R93, could you answer R76's question, please?

[quote]OP, there are multiple projections, some with the Liberals winning. You, of course, cherry picked the projection with the worst Liberal result.

[quote] 139-137-33-24-4 @EricGrenierCBC

That has been updated with the Conservatives having 140 seats to Liberals with 135

[quote] What is rebel media?

Canada version of Info Wars

There's one way to solve all of this. Canada should be annexed by the U.S., where Trump would be history in a general election and the Canadian conservatives would be as well. As two countries with a shared heritage, what's not to love? I'd say it's a win-win situation.

Seems like all over the world the 'conservatives right' (Nazis) are trying to take over countries.

The fact of the matter is Trudeau got lucky winning in 2015 - the fact Canada wanted to throw out Harper and the Bloc was non-existent

But now we are back in the Harper minority years (2006 - 2011) where the Conservative benefit from a splintered left and a stubborn Bloc party that stands in the way of any Progressive Party from winning

So from this point on Canada is stuck with Conservative governments for the foreseeable future.

R100 = Daryl Bricker & John Ibbitson

R101 well it is true

R102, after the 2011 Election, pundits like Bricker & Ibbitson wrote books predicting permanent Conservative dominance and that the Liberals wouldn't be back in power for a generation.

4 years later Trudeau won a Liberal Majority Government.

The point is that it is much too soon to predict the future, as the above authors learned to their peril.

R103 well considering how the Right Wing is dominating the Global scene, and Trudeau is in the political fight of his life, those two authors are not off the mark.

It will be interesting to see whether the increased threats of violence to Trudeau this week have an effect on the vote next week:

[quote]Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is surrounded by tactical police as he arrives for a rally in Mississauga, Ontario. The rally was delayed for 90 minutes due to a security issue.

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER

Jagmeet Singh:

Any threat made against @JustinTrudeau, or any leader, is troubling to all of us. No matter how you vote or believe, no one should face threats of violence. To the officers who protect all of us – thank you.

~ ~ ~

Charles Adler:

Please pay attention Cdns. Too many ideologues in this country are poisoning the digital well that unstable people drink from. There is a reason why a Cdn PM had to wear bulletproof armor. We don't have to be the USA no matter how many Canadian wannabes worship #Trump

Canada has record low unemployment, strong economic growth and the poverty rate has gone down

Yet Canada wants to VOTE OUT Justin Trudeau

Proves people deal with feelings and NOT facts

You're all daft. Trudeau will win a slim majority easily, despite what polls are saying. I wish it would be a minority government, but it will not be so. You heard it here and take it to the bank folks.

We want a real politician. Not a photo-op junkie.

WE want a Trudeau minority government to be honest. And that is the best case scenario.

[quote]well considering how the Right Wing is dominating the Global scene, and Trudeau is in the political fight of his life, those two authors are not off the mark.

oh please. Libs + NDP + Greens = Canada will always be lib/left. If they would just form a coalition instead of treating each other like the plague, Canada would never have a Conservative government ever again.

Perhaps the Conservative support will go down over the next week as a backlash to the death threats Trudeau has been receiving and the fact that he now has to wear a bullet-proof vest.

R110 I think the issue is that Trudeau came to power on a wave of change. While the economy is robust, the truth is most Canadians aren't seeing any benefits from it. The cost of living is soaring, housing has become unaffordable for a rapidly growing number of Canadians, and despite the low unemployment wages are fairly stagnant. Stupidly people fall for the conservative line of "we're going to cut taxes" thinking this might help them.

R111 Even the most optimistic of pollsters now believes a majority for anyone is impossible. A huge problem for Trudeau is advanced polls opened on Friday right at the start of NDP surge. This will hurt the Liberals in the seat count.

I think the image of Trudeau in a bullet proof vest will give some pause and bring back some strategic voters. The liberals plan in the last week will likely be trying to get strategic voters back into the fold.

[quote] I think the image of Trudeau in a bullet proof vest will give some pause and bring back some strategic voters. The liberals plan in the last week will likely be trying to get strategic voters back into the fold.

You saying it was all staged?

R117, no, I don't think that's what R116 was saying.

I think he's saying that the violent threats against Trudeau may remind some Canadians of the dangers of the right-wing fringe.

The RCMP took unusual security measures by giving Trudeau a bullet proof vest -- not something that usually happens for a Canadian Prime Minister.

Facebook takes down ‘excessively violent’ anti-Trudeau ad:

Andrew Scheer had to respond:

Very upsetting to hear that Justin Trudeau had to wear a bulletproof vest tonight at a campaign event. Threats of violence against political leaders have absolutely no place in our democracy. Thank you to the RCMP for taking these threats seriously and keeping us safe.

R22, that is a fact. As an American, I couldn’t believe when I saw that ghastly “Sorry, Not Sorry” commercial that Kathleen Wynne did not immediately postpone her campaign. It was really the biggest middle finger to voters I have ever seen in a campaign advertisement.

R81, oh hunty, when Beto first made his appearance DL said he'd be the next president. Based on BDF and projected dick size.

Once again the NDP and their supporters ruin the country.

1 year ago every DLer said Justin Trudeau would NOT lose Re-Election The same way people placed bets on Hillary Clinton not losing to Donald Trump. If this teaches people anything it is that anything can happen in an elections

[quote] Typical Liberal line. We wouldn't have Doug Ford as Ontario Premiere if Liberals had got off their high horse and voted NDP. Once the Ontario Liberals started campaigning harder against the NDP than Ford, I tore up my Liberal membership.

[quote] that is a fact. As an American, I couldn’t believe when I saw that ghastly “Sorry, Not Sorry” commercial that Kathleen Wynne did not immediately postpone her campaign. It was really the biggest middle finger to voters I have ever seen in a campaign advertisement.

Before NDPers blame Liberals, they need to look in the mirror as NDP base of working class vote, went with Ford. Blue Collar vote that typically votes NDP, vote for Ford instead. Something NDP supporters fail to mention.

[quote] While the economy is robust, the truth is most Canadians aren't seeing any benefits from it. The cost of living is soaring, housing has become unaffordable for a rapidly growing number of Canadians, and despite the low unemployment wages are fairly stagnant. Stupidly people fall for the conservative line of "we're going to cut taxes" thinking this might help them.

Feelings and not facts, just like Trump lies move people. In addition, an independent study showed Trudeau had fulfilled 92% of his promises, yet progressives in Canada want to vote him out because he didn't achieve 100% - Yes my American friends, Canada has fallen for Fake News as well.

Shame on Canadians.

There's not a chance Justin will lose even his majority. It will be smaller, but that's all.

The thing that upsets me the most is that right-wing bloggers, alt-right and Conservative media (print, TV & Radio) have been working non-stop since 2015 to demonize Justin Trudeau - really the amount of money and resources they have put into this would make Mother Theresa look like the devil.

I was really hoping that a Majority Trudeau win would flip the bird to them. But come election night you will hear five thousand screams of celebrations, the popping of champaign bottles and tons of OP-ED being written saying we can now get the country back on track (despite what the facts say about Canada strong economic growth)

I don't worry about Trudeau, he'll do fine. But my sadness is that the alt-right won. And they will brag about it for years on end. And that depresses me, because they are now such a powerful force, that we will be seeing Conservative governments around the world for the unforeseen future.

[quote] There's not a chance Justin will lose even his majority. It will be smaller, but that's all.

You are truly in denial

R125 Um, that's not what happened. Ford is where he is because the 905 voted almost exclusively Conservative and because the left vote was split. In many ridings, the PC candidate only won by small margins over the NDP candidate. The truth is most riding it would have only taken an additional 3 to 5% of Liberals strategically voting NDP to stop Ford.

I typically vote Liberal but even I can see that Trudeau has lost his appeal. I'm thankful for his support of the LGBTQ community, but lets be honest here he's not been the Prime Minister of change he vowed he would be. Many people are struggling harder now than they were in 2015. The reason why the NDP and PQ are surging is because people want an alternative to both the Conservatives and Liberals. If Trudeau loses it's not because people voted NDP it's because he didn't do enough to earn people's votes.

[Quote]I don't worry about Trudeau, he'll do fine. But my sadness is that the alt-right won. And they will brag about it for years on end. And that depresses me, because they are now such a powerful force, that we will be seeing Conservative governments around the world for the unforeseen future.

R128 You nailed it. The Cons have been despicable doing everything they can to dig up dirt to ruin Trudeau. They play dirty. It was probably a Rebel Media intern who came up with that blackface scandal. Yes, I realize it's Trudeau's own fault. Had he not done it, it wouldn't have been an issue. However, it happened many years ago. I'm not excusing him, but for them to dig up this, at this point, that is despicable. Despite the blackface Trudeau is more of a man than Scheer will ever be. Scheer is a misogynist, racist and homophobe, just like most Tories. Trust me when I say Scheer is NOT the solution. Plus, he's American. He's Canada's Ted Cruz. Fuck him and his ignorant voter base.

[Quote]The thing that upsets me the most is that right-wing bloggers, alt-right and Conservative media (print, TV & Radio) have been working non-stop since 2015 to demonize Justin Trudeau - really the amount of money and resources they have put into this would make Mother Theresa look like the devil.

Which is exactly what they did with the blackface scandal. He was doing well in the polls, then that happened and it changed everything. Just like the Tories predicted.

123/R125: Strategic voting is voting for the candidate who can beat the Conservative in your riding. In most of the West and in certain Ontario ridings, that's the NDP, DEAR. In those ridings, voting Liberal splits the anti-Con vote. In Quebec, few ridings have the NDP as the only alternative, and if these polls hold, most will be the Bloc, if you can stomach voting for a nationalist party with separatist tendencies. And in a very small collection of ridings, you better vote Green or you're splitting the vote. This is not a Presidential election, every riding will have different candidates on their ballot.

This is the FINAL time I'm gonna educate you about voting in Canada. Cut. The. Crap.

[Quote]While the economy is robust, the truth is most Canadians aren't seeing any benefits from it. The cost of living is soaring, housing has become unaffordable for a rapidly growing number of Canadians, and despite the low unemployment wages are fairly stagnant. Stupidly people fall for the conservative line of "we're going to cut taxes" thinking this might help them.

Please tell me how you expect Scheer to make it better for them? How exactly is a Tory government going to make housing more affordable? Newsflash: housing costs ALWAYS soar when the Cons are in charge. They make life miserable for the middle class and poor people. They cut benefits that the poor rely on, to finance tax cuts for the 1 %. We have had a conservative government here in Norway for the past 6 years. The poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer. You think this is a coincidence? Nah. The cons have cut a million benefits to finance their tax cut program for the 1 %. They are despicable. That is just one of a million reasons why I voted communist this year. It was a protest vote, pure and simple. Fuck the rich and their enablers.

As most Canadians know conservatives are the cut and spend party.

Every time a conservative govt has held a majority, our deficits skyrocket.

Then the Liberals come in and have to fix it.

Does this mean that Justin will actually have to start working for a living, as in a real job?

R134: Look everyone, a fake ass troll!

R106: It's nice to see your retarded ass back with us, loser.

R124: I spanked your ass black and blue in the spring over this nonsense Hillary/Trudeau comparison. I guess you liked it and want your ass beaten again?

R124: And it turns out you're the IT'S OVER dipshit who is also CRYING about worldwide Conservative domination LOL and Conservative Canadian Government for the foreseeable future LOL.

Ladies and gentleman, this is the classic misdirection troll. Post over the top hysteria to get you demoralized and allow the right to win through apathy. At the same time, the troll posts separate little turds about "IT'S OVER", "you said Hillary would win!", and "the NDP slits the vote ALWAYS EVERYWHERE"

The gig is up troll boy.

DRAMA!

R134 How the fuck am I a troll? Check my posts if you feel like. I have never lied.

Scheer plans to take away the mortgage stress test. If he does, we'll be having a mortgage crisis, just like they did in the US. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he allows banks to merge. Then, Canadians will find out what a real recession feels like.

I'm a big believer in that people (in democracies) get the government they deserve. If Canadians give the Liberals the boot and split the left vote, then fuck everyone as far as Im concerned. We'll head back to the days of Harper, where age of OAS is raised to 67, legislation to make unions weak will be drawn, healthcare will be privatized and on, scientists will be muzzled and on, and on. Most people will deserve what they get. Idiots. I'm not surprised though. I'm not the "Trudeau concern troll" but I've generally agreed with him. I saw the attacks and memes coming out about Trudeau since he won in '15, and those have only become more vile and more mainstream.

R141 You basically said everything I wanted to say. Yes, Canada will go back to muzzling scientists, weakening the unions, privatizing health care etc. But it's their own fualt for voting in that asshole Scheer. People get the government they deserve. That's how democracies work. Although I disagree with our conservative government here in Norway, this is a democracy. I have to accept that most people are selfish assholes and want poor people to suffer. Doesn't mean I agree with it though, I will do everything I can to vote those assholes out. I cannot wait until the election in two years. The Tories and the alt-right assholes suffered a huge blow in the local election. Most people are catching on to their unfair politics, thank god. May it last till 2021.

R138 Grow up - voter turn out has gone UP on college campuses in Canada (which was just last week) so much promoting voter apathy.

You are and have been in denial about the ALt-Right in Canada infecting social media and use this whole "voter apathy" as a shield. - Voter apathy does NOT go and split the vote.

[quote] Please tell me how you expect Scheer to make it better for them?

Scheer is NOT going to make it better for them, but the fact is people get moved by feelings and not by facts. If people aren't feeling it, no amount of facts you throw at them will change their minds - Look at Trump, he won the election all on people's feeling despite all the facts staring at them in face. Coupled with that is the right wing media and social media pushing that Conservative narrative for people to beleive what they are saying.

He's not going to lose lose. He's going to have a smaller majority or govern in some sort of alliance with other leftist parties.

Still hard to believe that an incumbent party could be turfed from government when the economy is growing and unemployment is at a record low.

The right wing has won in this country, R146. Years of disinformation and lies have taken over and Canadians haven't learned from the US. Fuck this country, and fuck the con supporters. I hope Scheer gets rid of CPP, raises OAS and makes cuts - con voters deserve everything they have coming. I hope all the people who vote for the cons suffer, let him privatize healthcare, let his voters be unable to afford anything. I don't care anymore, I'm done. I hate to say it, but I have a good job, with a pension, so I'll be alright. Let the con supporters suffer for all I care.

R146 The Rebel Media interns are infecting the news and social media trying to spin a narrative that Trudeau has failed. In fact it's the opposite. Facts don't matter to them though. They will spin lie after lie until enough people think it's the truth. Typical con strategy. Just like the blackface scandal. Digging up enough dirt on their opponent so the opponent lose, instead of having people support their politics.

R134 I guess you didn't read the quote you're responding to properly. Scheer isn't going to jack for anyone but the rich. The problem people are feeling crunched financially and no matter what they try they can't get ahead. That is why poor and middle-class people often fall for the conservatives promises of tax cuts. As R144 said, people are motivated by feelings rather than facts. I'm a liberal supporter but lets face 'facts' here, Trudeau came into power on the promise of building up the middle class. The truth is the yes the economy is good, but only the already wealthy are seeing any benefits from it. Trudeau won in 2015 because he became the "progressive candidate," they young politician who'd bring about change. That didn't happen and over the past year he has faced so many questions about his judgment and style that many have branded him all talk and little action. I don't agree with this, but it is what is happening.

There will be no alliance between the NDP and Trudeau Liberals. It's a good idea that never happens. This time in particular. Singh is an opportunist and now is the time to strike. If Trudeau can't win the most seats, even a small minority - Trudeau will be resigning as leader shortly. The LIberal party must insist on it. As will the NDP in any type of "agreement" they make in private.

R150 You clearly have no idea how our parliament works. Trudeau will not resign if he wins a minority as it would be a stupid move to leave the party 'leaderless' at a time when the possibility of an election will loom large. Trudeau will resign if he loses the election outright or if he loses the next one. No one is talking about an alliance or coalition but if the Liberals win a minority, they will need NDP support not to lose confidence of the house. This will mean the Liberals will have to make concessions to make sure they can pass confidence motions such as a budget. The NDP will not want to be seen supporting a conservative minority. Trudeau's future is now in doubt, but he will not resign unless the Liberals outright lose the election.

Put on your glasses gramps. Read my post again R151. I don't need a lecture from a Canadian hysteric on how parliament works. Canadian know it alls are more tedious than stupid Americans.

[quote]If Trudeau can't win the most seats, even a small minority - Trudeau will be resigning as leader shortly.

Not winning even a minority IS outright losing. Why not treat yourself to Swiss Chalet, OK?

Trudeau won't resign if he wins a minority. There is no precedence in Canadian politics for that. Leaders only resign if they lose an election outright. If he wins a minority, he will remain in office until the next election. If Scheer wins the most seats and Trudeau can't or won't strike a deal with the NDP, then he will resign. Yes, the Liberals won't be happy with a minority, but they won't push him out. It makes zero sense to push out the leader of the party when another election could be around the corner. Martin remained PM after his won a minority, and only resigned when Harper won his own minority a year later.

Liberals appear to have lost the youth and progressive vote. Interestingly, early figures show youth have turned out in record numbers for the advanced polls this time.

R153

A, can't read

B, thinks he knows more than he does

C, can't face reality

D, is tedious as fuck.

E, is the ugly Canadian

R155 please stop trolling the thread.

Andrew MacDougall, former Press Secretary for PM Harper, says the security threat against Trudeau is genuine:

[quote]In my experience, the RCMP PMPD don’t f*ck around. If there’s a threat, they take appropriate action in response. (We took our own cars to 🇮🇳 for that reason.)

[quote]That includes ERT teams, etc. That said, I can’t recall a bullet resistant vest in 🇨🇦, so must have been very serious.

R154 The polling firm in that story has ties to Conservatives and its CEO is anti-Trudeau

Now the poll might be true, but nowhere in the story did it mention the Liberals percentage with the youth vote. They say the NDP is at 39% of the Youth vote, but never mentioned what the Liberals are polling at,

25 of the posts on this thread are from R156. That's 1/6 of the content. That's a troll. He's obsessing and lecturing and very dull indeed. PLEASE stop trolling this thread!!

Both the NDP & Conservatives want to take out Justin Trudeau, no matter how damage it does to Canada - as they are BOTH in it for themselves.

Exactly, and the NDPers love to toss around Jack Layton's name as if he's some kind of Canadian saint. It's because of Layton that we got more years of Harper.

Raptors president Masai Ujir endorses Justin Trudeau:

“I continue to support Prime Minister Trudeau now, and when he’s prime minister again.”

R152, is “Swiss chalet” Some kind of delicious food?

Swiss Chalet is where you go for bad turkey dinner when you have no family.

Oh. IHOP’ish

R147 the fact is you are every bit as ugly as anyone you hate. Maybe once you've calmed down a bit you'll have a chance to consider how ugly your post is.

How is my post ugly, R166? The conservative base will deserve what they get if Scheer is elected. They know what he stands for and they vote conservative anyway. They don't care about you or I or anyone else, so why should progressives care about them when they cut off their noses to spite their faces? They want to vote in favour of cuts? Good for them, then they will get what they want, but I won't care when they're affected by the fallout. Scheer has already talked about eliminating things like CPP and Harper raised the age for OAS. Doug Ford is talking about privatizing healthcare in Ontario, and if one more conservative premier is elected, Scheer can start screwing with the Charter.

Singh confirms if Conservatives win more seats, he is willing to support the Liberals to stop Scheer from becoming Prime Minister. Will never support the conservative party.

Well that is good news - Let's hope it comes to that. Maybe in future elections Liberals, Greens & NDP can do joint nomination meetings so we don't get this vote splitting

That would be ideal, R169.

I'm still totally confused. I refuse to read through all the posts here, but the most recent posts seemed to show Trudeau in the lead in the latest polls. Maybe not a majority, but at least a lead.

And if he doesn't have a majority but at least does have the lead, then ideologically similar parties will form a coalition government with him.

And if he doesn't have the majority or at least the lead, then ideologically similar parties will NOT form a coalition government with conservatives.

And the conservatives don't have a majority, which is the only way they can govern. Because without a majority, they cannot cobble together a coalition government.

So what, exactly, is the panic all about?

[quote] but the most recent posts seemed to show Trudeau in the lead in the latest polls.

He doesn't have the lead, and the higher the NDP rise the better the chances the Conservatives win.

Let me re-phrase, R172: It seems Liberals are probably in #2 below. Maybe #3. But certainly not #4. Correct?

1. Liberals win majority = Liberals win

2. Liberals win most but not majority, then Liberals form coalition government = Liberals win.

3. Conservatives win most but not majority, then they will not be a form a coalition government with minority parties = no winner and new vote? or maybe Liberals form minority coalition with other parties - Liberals win.

4. Conservatives win majority = conservatives win.

Number #3

R173 Basically here's the situation

Currently the Liberals appear to be 2nd in the polls, BUT, the popular vote means nothing as it comes down to the number of seats. At present, the Liberals still have a seat advantage, enough to eek out about 15 to 20 seats more than the conservatives. This is despite the NDP surge.

Rule of thumb is a party needs to be around 36% in the polls to win an all out majority....no party is anywhere near that at this stage. Conservatives and Liberals around hovering around 30% and NDP about 20%.

In the unlikely event the Liberals or Conservatives win a majority, they govern with no issue

When a party wins a minority, the have to have the support of the opposition in order to avoid losing the confidence of the house. So if the Liberals win a minority, they will need the NDP to stay in power.

Now, if the conservatives win a minority BUT the Liberals and NDP collectively have more seats, Trudeau has first dibs to try and form a government. In our system, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he either resigns or the Governor General sacks him/her because they no longer have confidence of the house.

Oh my gawd, oh my gawd! Canada does not have the strength to be led by anything other than a Liberal government. I just don't know how we've even survived through all the conservative eras that have come before! Oh my gawd, I'll light my hair on fire and run through the streets if Justin is not re-elected! OH MY GAWD!

Naaa! Sexy man Trudeau WILL RISE!

Here's the irony, if Trudeau had actually gone through with electoral reform like he promised, it would have ensured that the conservatives could never form government again. Roughly 60 to 70% of the country votes for left leaning parties during a given election. This would mean the Libs, NDP and Greens would always makeup the majority of the House.

Today's seat count has Liberals further down but still in the lead. The conservatives have no viable path to getting more seats than the opposition.

There will be a number of new polls out on Tuesday. But pollsters like Frank Graves (he's one of the best IMO) are suggesting a long weekend swing back towards the Liberals as the strategic vote moves back to the Liberals.

Not what Bruce Anderson from Abbacus Research says

Fresh polling from us this AM. Conservatives positioned to win, despite being at 32% & with rising negatives for @AndrewScheer as progressive voters consider several parties. Will this pattern hold, as #elxn43 heads into the home stretch?

[quote]the higher the NDP rise the better the chances the Conservatives win.

And yet people keep claiming that there's no problem with voting NDP.

R181 if your read further in the thread he does state Conservatives will win the most seats, but Liberals/NDP combined poised to win more.

[quote]Here's the irony, if Trudeau had actually gone through with electoral reform like he promised, it would have ensured that the conservatives could never form government again.

It wasn't going to happen. The Conservatives blocked every move the Electoral Reform Committee made. They're like the Republicans in Congress. They refused to allow anything to be done. They said they wanted to keep First Past The Post and that was final.

And the NDP insisted that they had to have Proportional Representation.

And the Liberals shouldn't have misled people in the first place by claiming they were going to implement a new system for 2019.

It will be interesting to see the way the seats actually vote next Monday.

Eg. I don't see the Greens winning a seat in Northern Ontario like the projection at R179 shows.

The Liberals didn’t need Conservative approval for electoral reform. The Conservatives couldn’t “block” anything as the. Liberals had a major in the House and Conservatives don’t control the Senate. The truth is the Liberals abandoned their pledge.

Today’s 338 blog, which aggregates many polls, had the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals for the first time. The Conservative seat numbers haven’t increased, the Liberals’ seats have dropped. The NDP seem to have picked up most of those seats.

Singh has performed well, better than any other leader IMHO.

Sorry for typos. I’m on a phone.

R186 I agree. It'll be interesting to see how Singh's pledge to help the Liberals will play out. It could 'scare' some back to the Liberals, or it could cause more people to go NDP. I think Singh's message at the debate about the fact that despite having conservative or liberal governments, nothing much changes for everyday Canadian is playing well. The fact is where it stands, Liberals, NDP, & Green will hold roughtly 30 to 40 seats more than the Conservatives. The only way Conservatives can govern is if they get a majority.

[quote]I think Singh's message at the debate about the fact that despite having conservative or liberal governments, nothing much changes for everyday Canadian is playing well.

Which is false --

1. The Liberals gave Canada the Charter of Rights & Freedoms

2. The Liberals passed gay marriage

3. Unemployment is lower now than when Harper was in power 4 years ago.

R189 I'm not denying that the Liberals haven't done good, I'm saying people are frustrated and Singh is playing into that. And lets be honest, unemployment is down but how many of us are actually financially better off then we were when Harper was PM. I'm sure not. Yes, I'm making slightly more money but my living expense are almost double what they were five years ago. Most jobs created today are not living wage jobs. I'm not saying this shift to the NDP is a good or bad thing it is what is happening.

If the polls out today are correct, people seem to be increasingly resolute to vote NDP over the Liberals.

[quote]If the polls out today are correct, people seem to be increasingly resolute to vote NDP over the Liberals.

Well, people can go ahead & do that. I just don't want to hear progressives complain if Scheer & the Cons get in.

NDP surge in 2011 = Harper Majority

NDP surge in 2018 = Ford Majority

Again if Trudeau hadn't failed on electoral reform, this wouldn't be an issue right now!

Trudeau could have pushed harder on electoral reform, yes, but it was also the fault of the NDP & Conservatives.

It never got out of the Committee stage in the House because there weren't the votes to advance the legislative process!

R192 Conservatives wouldn't allow electoral reform without a referendum - and if you think there wouldn't be public outrage if Trudeau went through with it without one, you are really naive

Thanks, R194.

I was trying to point that out myself.

John Ibbitson said on CBC today that even at 20% the NDP won't cause vote splitting - but if they get any higher then it will happen. Meanwhile Nik Nanos said on CTV that the NDP surge is limited to BC & Ontario - everywhere else the NDP is electorally dead

Minority governments are good things (for the country) when leadership is weak. Trudeau is a weakened leader. So he and the NDP may get along for some time, but this idea that the NDP has never worked with the Conservatives is untrue and naive. The NDP platform under Layton and Mulcair was often right of the Liberals. It's like any threesome, there's triangulation happening. In a three way, the party with the least seats holds the most power. Singh naturally wants Trudeau gone and all the conservatives do too. If Justin can't pull out at least a minority government victory, he's finished as leader of the liberal party. That is just facts. It may take two years, but he'll be gone. Singh will not join forces with the Liberals on each and every matter. They will force an election within 30 months if they gain a lot of seats this time. A minority Liberal victory is a best case scenario. Good for Canada. Trudeau acts too much like a KING. Time for the little prince to be reminded how the system works.

R194 I guess I'm naive to point out that Trudeau campaigned on electoral reform in 2015 and won a huge majority with a mandate to change the system.

[quote].all the polls have Trudeau down

This is not true.

There won't be a coalition. It isn't that bad. The Liberal party will go nuts at the idea and precedent of sharing power. If the Liberals have the most votes but not a majority, they can govern as a minority and reach confidence and supply voting agreements to prevent the government from falling.

Frank Graves is my go to for polls and interesting finding occurring in Ontario. Conservatives are nearly in 3rd place as both the Libs and NDP surge in Ontario.

R201, Frank Graves is a good guy, although he does sometimes lean Liberal, so we have to look at his numbers with caution. Hopefully he is correct that the Cons are going down in Ontario.

Advanced polling up by 25% compared to 2015. This likely not good for Liberals as advanced voting typically only sees increases in "change elections." My fear is that the conservative vote is more motivated.

True -- I think the Conservatives are motivated by the right-wing hatred of Trudeau, R203.

But it's possible there will be push back against the Conservatives in the 7 days remaining.

Conservatives are more motivated - so not surprised by the advanced turnout - Conservatives could have Harvey Weinstein leading the party, and they'd still vote Conservatives cause they all want Trudeau out

Now a bit good news - Nanos has Liberal back up at the top spot, but barely. Liberals and Conservatives still tied at the top, but Liberals went up and NDP went down. So hopefully this trend will continue and the Liberals remain at the top til election day

What was his last job? Boxing women?

His only real job was pretending to be an insurance broker. Then he saw that the political gravy train was a better gig for him (if not for tax payers), and he finally managed to broker an insurance policy, his own, that would pay his bills and support his family on the public dime.

R191: For the final time, you retard, NO.

Liberal uppitiness=Ford majority. This has been explained to you over and over. The NDP were the only only option to win, but Ontario Liberal hacks like you fucked it all up. YOU were never going to beat the lardass, YOU were the ones in third place. Sit down and shut up.

R193: No. As has been explained to you, the Conservatives couldn't block shit. And the Liberals campaigned on PR so they were on the same side as the NDP. The NDP didn't sabotage the committee, neither did the Cons. The failure of electoral reform is the fault of the Liberals and no one else. Cut. The. Crap.

R208 you don't think the country would revolt if there wasn't a referendum on the issue? If you think people would just "Ok change the voting without a referendum" despite the Conservatives pushing that (and doing it across the country) then you really have your head in the sand and don't understand what Western Canada thinks.

This article has put my mind at ease a little bit - the reason Andrew Scheer has gone so negative in recent weeks is that reports on local campaign level show a lack of support among his own base - they have problems finding volunteers and even supporters to show up at rallies and get out the vote.

Despite what the polls say, on the ground is an entirely different story.

We saw this with Trump, he was so behind in the polls yet his rallies were packed. With Scheer, we see numbers that have him tied, yet he had problems just filling up a banquet hall with supporters.

Some good news from the polls out this morning. They suggest that the Liberals have regained some momentum over the thanksgiving weekend and are now tied and even slightly leading the Conservatives. Regionally, Liberals still lead the Conservatives in Ontario and ironically the NDP surge in ON seems to be at the expense of conservative support.

338 has updated the seat count this AM

@liberal_party -156 @CPC_HQ - 127 @BlocQuebecois - 31 @ndp - 21 @CanadianGreens - 3

A six-word headline and dumbfuck OP misspells two of them.

r208 needs a Midol.

R212 Over the weekend, the Liberals seem to have regained enough ground in Ontario to be back in slim majority territory. The NDP surge seems to abating. It's likely that over this long weekend, strategic voters have begun their shift back to the Liberals after a flirt with the NDP.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

No r209, this is all on the Liberals. There is no legislative requirement to have committee approval to draft and introduce a bill.

It’s you who doesn’t understand Western Canada. This wasn’t an issue in the West.

Oops, r208. I agree with r209.

[quote] This wasn’t an issue in the West.

You truly are on another planet if you don't think this was an issue in Western Canada

Yes, I live on planet Western Canada. Not an issue.

Don't lise the elrction, Justin!

[quote]The NDP surge seems to abating. It's likely that over this long weekend, strategic voters have begun their shift back to the Liberals after a flirt with the NDP.

Maybe Conservative support is also flatlining:

1. People starting to hear about the $53 Billion in Cuts in the Con budget

2. Voters concerned over the threats to Trudeau's safety and the RCMP giving him a bullet proof vest

NANOS: October 14th, 2019

Liberals 32

Conservatives 32

NDP 19

Greens 9

BQ 6

PPC 1

[Nightly Tracking, three day rolling average ending October 13th, 2019]

Wow.

^^^Oh God, I know that guy.

You've seen him running around naked, R225?

I'm considered working class and I and my family have done pretty much the same under Trudeau as we did under Harper. The only government who has ever made a positive influence on my way of life is my provincial NDP government. The Liberals and Conservatives really seem like the same party to many people.

R228, the unemployment rate is down under Trudeau, child poverty is going down, Trudeau has also made life better for gays, 2 openly-gay men in cabinet (Brison & O'Reagan).

R227, if that guy wants public male nudity to be legalized he should have a more flattering figure.

The problem for PR is it only appeals to the fringe parties that can't gain critical mass.

What they don't like in particular is the reason for that: because their ideas don't appeal to enough people.

They’ve already announced they won’t do a coalition government so if the cons win, they take full power. Justin needs to go find a job.

Nothing has been determined yet, R231.

Parties never reveal their full hand before they vote is in.

[quote]They’ve already announced they won’t do a coalition government so if the cons win, they take full power. Justin needs to go find a job.

It depends on which party gets plurality. The Liberals could govern under a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP.

A coalition has never governed at the federal level.

R233, there was a coalition back in World War I, but granted that was 100 years ago, and something only we political geeks know.

R233, in addition to the coalition, modern arrangements include:

The Pearson (Liberal) & Douglas (NDP) agreement during the 1960's

The Trudeau & Lewis agreement during the early 1970's

The Martin & Layton agreement during the 2004-2005 government

The union government during the first war wasn't a formal coalition between parties but a coalition formed between the Conservatives and certain members of the Liberal party (and another one) running under the banner of the Unionists. Laurier Liberals ran against.

There has never been a formal coalition government between the parties (as parties) at the federal level. Yes, there have been co-operation agreements which perfectly illustrate the Liberal aversion to actually sharing power formally with the NDP in particular or anybody else in general. Minorities are fleeting things. The usual outcome is a majority for someone.

We have a coalition government here in Norway with 4 political right wing parties. Every government we have had has been a coalition. I don't see the big deal. It works well if they can agree on a platform and if they have a majority.

David Coletto, ABACUS:

Appears NDP momentum has stalled. 2-days in a row stuck around 18%. Still very close between LPC and CPC.

Very slim lead for the Liberals in the latest CBC Poll Tracker

Liberals: 137

Conservatives: 135

Bloc Québécois: 33

NDP: 28

Greens: 4

People’s Party: 1

Liberal have gone down a bit since that one, R239.

Yup, probably because of the Ipsos poll, R240. It's run by Darrell Bricker, who is a Conservative.

This back and forth shit is stressing me out. Can't wait for this election to be over.

Scheer caught lying about donating to the Red Cross?

Justin Trudeau has had the lowest unemployment rates of any prime minister in at least 40 years

Just heard from a coworker of mine that the Liberals have not taken Bill C 21 off the table, it's still sitting there AFTER Trudeau fought against a similar bill under Harper and promised not to touch the pensions of Canadians before he won in '15. Apparently, this bill was reintroduced by the Liberals in 2016 by Trudeau's finance minister. There's been no action on it for a couple of years, but technically, it could go through if the Liberals are re-elected. This really, really pisses me off. I'll be holding my nose and voting Liberal this time around to block the Cons, but not so sure about next time. Fuck anyone who thinks it's okay to mess with people's pensions.

Sorry, that should be Bill C 27, not C 21.

According to Mainstreet (yes they lean conservative) Liberals appear to have had a small lead in the advance polls. NDP vote was lower than expected.

Interestingly today's IPSOS poll have the NDP surging in BC and rising in the Prairies at the expense of the Conservatives and not the Liberals.

R247, that's interesting. So NDP may not be getting the turnout they need at the ballot box.

R248, yes, although Ipsos tends to often have better numbers for the NDP (anti-Liberal pollster).

Polytechnique victims endorse Liberals for gun control

[quote]According to Mainstreet (yes they lean conservative) Liberals appear to have had a small lead in the advance polls. NDP vote was lower than expected.

My guess is that their support is disproportionately with 18-35 year-olds, who tend not to turn out in numbers.... so their rise in polls could be an illusion.

Please vote on Monday. Save Trudeau.

WOW - Justin Trudeau just said the Conservative could win on Monday

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau today conceded the Conservatives could win Monday's election — and accused the party of winning support by running one of the "dirtiest, nastiest" election campaigns in Canadian history.

But he said this in Quebec, which might be a play for Quebeckers to drop their support for the Bloc and vote for the Liberals to STOP the Conservatives

The internal polling must be deeply concerning. You don't play that card unless your back is against the wall. I bet Justin is deeply unpopular. I don't predict a Conservative government but election night is gonna be tense.

Good news for Liberals in the 905 Poll today from NANOS/CTV:

(Toronto suburbs)

LIBERAL: 42.9%

CONSERVATIVE: 30.2%

NDP: 16%

GREEN: 9.3%

[quote]This is extremely bad news for the Conservatives in the key battlegrounds around Toronto and a major morale booster for the Liberals and NDP.

R255 Is Nanos pro-liberal? I'm not discounting this as I"m sure the Doug Ford effect has hit the conservatives,but the 905 is the conservative heartland in Ontario. If these numbers are true, Conservatives are dead. Lib support just seems too high in this region.

R256 the 905 are fed up with Doug Ford because he promised to go after the people they don't like but ended up going after them too. They will punish the CPC since they can't do anything to Ford.

[quote]the 905 is the conservative heartland in Ontario.

The conservative heartland in Ontario is the rural areas -- the 905 are swing districts that alternate Liberal or Conservative in each election.

I suppose the 2000-era "didn't think I'd be entering politics" blackface incident led to Barack Obama endorsing Justin Trudeau today instead of weeks earlier.

Obama is more popular than Andrew Scheer across the nation, although I get that OP and like-minded people believe that as Sherwood Park, AB goes, so goes the second-largest country on earth.

Interesting, R259. U.S. Presidents don't normally directly endorse Canadian leaders, like that, but I guess the Obama-Trudeau relationship is a special case.

(Bill Clinton also had a good relationship with Jean Chretien.)

Here it is:

[quote]I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.

Elections Canada says the Obama tweet endorsing Trudeau is NOT foreign interference because it was not paid for.

What. The Actual. FUCK??? American liberals have been screaming for YEARS about foreign meddling in their election, and Obama pulls this shit!???

Did you read what Elections Canada said at R262?

Endorsements are allowed -- they are not foreign interference. They are not paid for.

I"m voting Liberal but I personally feel Obama's endorsement is a bad move. It'll piss off conservatives and drive them to vote, and it weakens the democrats argument about foreign involvement.

New Agnus just did a poll with advanced voters, and the conservative are 4 points a head of the liberals. Granted it was only a sample size of 350.

[quote]Bill Clinton also had a good relationship with Jean Chretien.

We were both very poopuler R260.

I LOVED Chretien. Probably one of the best PMs we ever had. The little guy from Shawinigan won my heart, such a fierce leader who had no problem telling Bush to fuck off regarding Iraq. Plus, he tackled the guy that got in his face - remember the Shawinigan handshake?

[quote]I LOVED Chretien. Probably one of the best PMs we ever had.

I enjoyed his straightforward, matter-of-fact style.

During a town hall on CBC, Peter Mansbridge stepped in to say, "With all due respect - SIR! - you're duckin' the question."

Chretien said, "Well, yeah. Cause I don't know the answer."

How often does a politician admit that? Trudeau means well, and he's certainly a breath of fresh air after a decade of Harper, but I think a lot of us still miss Chretien.

Chretien.

I remember Chrentien talking in a scrum back in 1995 or 96 about something and he said, "You know, people should just stop the bitching." I nearly wet myself laughing.

Here's a recent interview with the little guy.

Remember when he knocked the protestor out of the way: Well, da guy was in my way, and I had to go. Here he is talking about it... he's hilarious. I know Americans will find him rough and like rube but that wily, down to earth son of a bitch... I adored him... he was so fearless and so funny and the Chretien years were prosperous.

The whole thing is fun but he talks about the protestor at 2:36

He's awesome, R272. Thanks for posting that clip.

Here's his "proof is a proof" statement.

During his trial for the sponsorship inquiry when Gomery ridiculed him for gifting golf balls with his name on them as "small-town cheap" he sat in court and produced signed golf balls from other heads of state. Brilliant.

I love Jean Mob Boss Chretien. Does Trudeau mean well? I hold my nose when I see him, even when it's not election time. But I voted for the fucker on the weekend. It is enjoyable that Doug Ford is helping the Liberals hold on. JUSTIN trudeau is an embarrassing PM to be honest.

R265, Angus is the most anti-Liberal pollster in Canada.

New MAINSTREET poll:

31% LIB (+2 since Oct. 10)

31% CON (-1)

18% NDP (+2)

8% BQ (=)

8% GRN (-2)

4% PPC (-1)

1% OTH (-1)

(Oct. 13-15, 2,070 eligible voters surveyed by IVR)

EKOS:

Deadlocked National Race Obscures Seat Advantage for Liberals

October 16, 2019

Brian was just on CBC again. I'm calling him running federally in four years.

Yeah, R280, it's possible he'll run in one of the traditional Liberal-leaning seats in New Brunswick.

One of the Francophone seats -- perhaps Dominic Leblanc's seat when he retires (Beausejour).

I think he'll be Liberal leader one day, R281.

It's possible, R282. Maybe he'll run in a future Liberal leadership race.

He'll want to start off by getting a Federal seat. The Liberal seats are all occupied in New Brunswick at the moment, but if Dominic Leblanc continues to have cancer troubles or retires when Trudeau does, that seat might open up for Brian.

Toronto Star endorses Trudeau:

-

Liberals are the best choice for Canada

"Trudeau and the Liberals have accomplished important things since 2015. And they offer the best program for continuing in that positive direction over the next four years."

‘Despite their failings, on the big issues the Liberals got the direction right over the past four years.’

The Tories failed to present a leader who could lie convincingly. The Tories failed to find common ground between oil and gas industries and the Canadians for whom climate change is a prime issue. The Tories failed to elect a leader who isn't a citizen of the US. The Tories failed to present their platform until all the debates ended. The Tories failed to distance themselves from white supremacists.

The Tories failed to sucker the average Canadian voter, as the average Canadian voter is conscious of all the facts in the preceding paragraph.

Rightwing voters can go with the People's Party of Canada, as at least three of the CPC's failures are PPC accomplishments.

Quelle surprise r284.

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't, R283. I don't think it'll be in the next election if there's a minority government that falls quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he runs federally in four-five years down. Someone's bound to retire before then. He's working for Ryerson now, but I think he's still living in NB.

[quote] American liberals have been screaming for YEARS about foreign meddling in their election, and Obama pulls this shit!???

Agree,. Not good.

R288, that's an analogy of false equivalency.

Foreign meddling involves tampering with machines, placing false Facebook ads, giving illegal donations, etc.

All Obama is doing is publicly making a *personal* recommendation for all to see and is not being paid.

Obama is meddling, and the timing was calculated by request of the Liberal Party of Canada. Crooks.

R290 = Scheer, jealous that Obama doesn't like him.

Funny tweet from '22 Minutes':

[quote]Barack Obama has endorsed Justin Trudeau ahead of the federal election. It seems weird that he wouldn’t endorse fellow American Andrew Scheer.

Chretien was the last great Prime Minister this country has ever had and certainly the last with a real personality.

Brian Gallant's name has been "whispered" for some time as a potential successor to Trudeau for the last year. Gallant will eventually run for a federal seat. He didn't go to all that trouble to secure a political wife only to drop out of politics completely.

I don't want the Conservatives in power but I truly hate people like Trudeau. Spoiled rich kids, never having to face the consequences of their actions, coasting through life and using their parents name to advance. I'm disgusted that I and the country fell for it.

R295, at least Trudeau is trying to do some progressive/liberal things after having a spoiled rich background.

And he's done a lot to stand up for gays.

At least he hasn't been in Parliament his whole adult life like Scheer.

I really feel the same, r295. I wish there were a better alternative than Scheer. But Prime Minister Nepotism it is.

How is it nepotism if he had to run for office? They didn't hand Trudeau the job. And Obama isn't meddling; he's endorsing.

For fuck's sake, get a dictionary and a clue.

I don’t think Trudeau would have been taken seriously if it weren’t for his name. He’s never done anything remarkable in fact he’s just shown us all what a liar and fake he is. I think any leader of the liberal party would have been just as supportive of the gay community.

Agreed R299.

Zzzzzzzz, r299/r300.

Disagree, R299 & R230. Trudeau went farther for gays than other Liberal leaders. None of them went to Pride parades, and he appointed 2 openly-gay cabinet ministers (eg. Brison & O'Reagan).

R298 is also correct that Trudeau was not handed a safe seat. He had to run in a Bloc-held seat and win it back for the Liberals. He didn't just run in his father's old seat, he ran in a different riding that was held by the BQ at the time.

Are all these whiny bitches by chance Canadian? If so, they don't know how good they have it.

Over thanksgiving, I had dinner with my aunt and uncle who live in the 905. They are conservative voters and have been for 40 years. We tend to avoid talking politics but the election came up. I nearly had a stroke when they said they were voting Liberal or NDP! I ask why and they said "Doug Ford and Trump." I believe the polls showing Liberals dominating in the 905! It will be a minority, but Conseratives will not eek out a win.

Scheer won't explain how he traveled to the United States as a citizen without a valid U.S. passport.

Oct 16

-

"It is against the law for U.S. citizens — including dual nationals — to enter or leave the United States unless they are using a valid American passport."

Paul Vieira, Wall Street Journal:

"Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is refusing to explain how he travelled to the United States as a citizen without a valid U.S. passport. Multiple requests to the party for an explanation have been ignored over the last 11 days."

Current seat projections still show a close Liberal vs. Conservative race, with the Liberals having the advantage in some of them, but too close to call.

R307 it's going to come down to turn out!

R294, has he been talked about in political circles or just here on DL?

Here's his segment from yesterday's Power and Politics. Christy Clark, a Liberal fro BC is a real snatch. She sounds like a con, while Redford a con from Alberta sounds like a liberal. Strange.

R309, yes, that's because the BC "Liberals" aren't really Liberals. They are conservatives but they adopted the name "Liberals" after the collapse of the right-wing Social Credit party a few decades ago. The BC Liberals are not the same as the Federal Liberals.

Brian starts at the three minute mark.

Ah, okay, R310. I wondered why she sounded so anti-Trudeau.

Forum poll says NDP surging over its poll ten days prior.

Could mean trouble for Liberals.

Toronto, October 17th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum PollTM among 1028 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, just under a third (29%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election were held today, while a third (30%) say they support the Liberals.

One-fifth (20%) say they support the NDP, an increase of 7 points since October 8th (Oct 8: 13%).

....

If these results were projected into seats, we expect a minority parliament, with the Liberals winning 133 seats and the Conservatives winning 121. The NDP would win 46 (up 17 from Oct 8: 29), the BQ would win 37, and the Green would win 1, (down from 4 Oct 8).

Trudeau sees approval from 4 in 10, disapproval from half

Justin Trudeau's sees approval from 4 in 10 (39%), and disapproval from half (53%). 1 in 10 (8%) say they don't know. Trudeau's net favourable score(approve-disapprove) is -14.

[quote]Justin Trudeau's sees approval from 4 in 10 (39%), and disapproval from half (53%). 1 in 10 (8%) say they don't know. Trudeau's net favourable score(approve-disapprove) is -14.

The right wing smear campaign worked!

Oh please, r298, you can't seriously be that stupid. Trudeau only rose to the top after the Liberal massacre in 2011. It was a craven attempt at saying: "hey! Remember Pierre Trudeau? This is his son! Liberal are still relevant!"

I've never liked Justin. As we've seen beared out over the past year, he's an unremarkable doofus. Any other Liberal leader would have enacted the same policies he did. You're dying on his cross because he gets your mussy all wet.

But given the choice in this election, it's the Liberals by a mile.

R313, other pollsters are seeing the NDP support level off. I'm a bit skeptical of Forum because it's had bad numbers for the Liberals for a while.

R315, Justin certainly doesn't have the intellectual abilities of his father -- he's certainly not a Constitutional Law Professor. But the Liberals were written off as finished in 2011, and yet he brought them back with a Majority in 2015 -- something Marc Garneau and other Liberals would not have been able to manage.

Poll Tracker updated, with Liberals regaining marginal seat edge over the Conservatives, with minority government still the most likely result. NDP, Bloc poised to hold balance of power.

Yeah, Joyce DeWitt wins. Just like Dawn Wells.

R310: Point of order, they actually took over the provincial Liberal Party and moved it to the right after Social Credit shat the bed.

Canadian politics is wonderful, Provincial Parties do not line up with Federal Parties and I love it. Each Province has it's own party system. I wish it was the same down here.

New Mainstreet poll tonight:

32% LIBERAL (+1 since Oct. 13)

31% CONSERVATIVE (-1)

19% NDP (+2)

8% BQ (=)

7% GREEN (=)

3% PEOPLE'S (=)

(Oct. 14-16, 2,128 eligible voters surveyed by IVR):

Sophie Gregoire will do her blackface singing again? We can hope. So soulful. Justin is indeed a doofus. We need him to remain in charge for two more years. Sing that uplifting black music Mr & Mrs Trudeau!! Borne of pain.

Forum polls landline phones, which means mostly people 55 are polled. So their polls are pretty flawed.

Mainstreet has updated the projected seat count

Liberal - 168

Conservative - 102

Bloc - 37

NDP - 28

Greens - 3

Now these new numbers have been met with SCORN by Conservative pollsters "Campaign Research" (the firm that propelled Rob Ford to the mayor's chair)

Tweeting - "We've collect n=1000 & now start next wave for n=1000. 905 looking good for CPC so far. Full details tomorrow. Someone is playing a cruel joke and has hijacked my friends' (Mainstreet) Twitter account OR his data collection software OR both

But Mainstreet is standing by their numbers saying "Prepare for the Kouvalis/Marshall onslaught"

Should note according to new polling from Nanos, support for the Conservatives has collapsed in the province of Ontario, especially in the 905.

Holy many seats are needed for a majority?

170, R324.

My parents who usually vote Liberal will be voting Green this time. They considered NDP but the Green representative usually wins their riding.

The liberal vote will have to be seriously under represented in the polls to get 170. I am thinking Liberal minority with NDP supporting.

R326, the only Green that regularly wins a riding is Elizabeth May, the Green Leader. Do they live on Vancouver Island?

R323, Kouvalis is a hardcore right-winger who has worked for many conservatives, including the Fords. So I would be cautious about anything he says.

The seat projections of 168 for the Liberals seem too high, but I'll trust Mainstreet before I trust Kouvalis.

Jesus fucking christ. It will be a liberal minority. Some american style weirdos are taking this baby's temp every 3 minutes. Trudeau will be very lucky to win that much support. He's proved himself corrupt and dishonest, mean and petulant. And the black face with the sock in the pants??? It's forgivable, but who can forget. He's a knob. But I'm a liberal and it makes sense to vote for him where I live. I hope to see him replaced as leader before another election. Tighty white pants don't make for nothing. Just how much support do insecure gays need in Canada? Any liberal leader would do the same and the NDP would do more. There's nothing more to do btw. Some old guy in Surrey BC must be hijacking this thread, because Justin ain't much. And gays aren't under siege in Canada. Someone with PTSD feels unusually threatened. Relax. No one will chase you home from school if Justin loses the election. He can still march in the parade! And Sophie can sing.

R324, 170 seats.

Yes r328. I'm in Vancouver so that's probably why I don't know anybody who's voting for him.

R332, do you mean Vancouver or Vancouver Island?

Vancouver is a Liberal/NDP stronghold area.

Vancouver Island is an NDP/Green area.

Frank Graves says the CPC have a big lead in advance polling.

I'm in Vancouver but my parents are Vancouver Island.

Frank Graves:

I think the LPC have a ground game advantage

R330, you're the one who sounds like a drama queen.

I don't think anyone on this thread is saying that Canadian gays will be strung up & killed if the Scheer Conservatives take power. But the fact remains that he is a Canadian version of Rick Santorum -- a socially conservative, anti-gay leader. He compared gay marriage to dogs in the House of Commons and still evades taking responsibility for what he said.

Plus, he would appoint more conservative justices to the Supreme Court, ignore science on climate change, etc.

Today's Seat Projections from Mainstreet:

Liberal - 152

Conservative - 116

Bloc Quebecois - 36

Ndp - 31

Greens - 3

I'm having trouble understanding how the CPC has made gains. My local CPC candidate is basically, "Trudeau is a bad man" and that's it.

^ governments don't get voted in, they get voted out. That's how. Trudeau's performance and personality have worked against him.

How so R340? Details or piss off.

Oh, God how hard is it? Jodi, SNC for starters. Electoral reform. This foolishness:

That's it R342?

How is Canada demonstrably worse off under Trudeau and the Liberal party?

He interfered in a legal matter for political reasons. Remind you of anybody? And he's a sanctimonious prat, not unlike you. Am I voting Liberal Monday? Probably. Do I wish the party had a better, brighter leader than that showboating dilettante? Definitely. I can't block him, but I can block you, dear.

[quote]He interfered in a legal matter for political reasons.

No, he didn't. Even Jodi - under oath - said he didn't break any laws.

In the end Canada has record low unemployment and the economy is doing well just about everywhere (except for Alberta's oil-based economy). Governments don't typically get voted out of office under these conditions.

I didn't say he broke laws. I said he interfered. There's a difference between illegal and improper. Some of us can vote Liberal with liking Trudea. Get over it.

Anyway, if everything is sunny in the garden you tell me what's going on, o wise minge.

How much do you want to bet Sophie will be scatting on MLK day this year if he's re elected?

Today's Mainstreet riding poll for Burlington has the Liberal incumbent, Karina Gould, leading the Conservative candidate.

Burlington is a Conservative-Liberal swing riding, so that's a good sign for the Liberals in Ontario so far.

(The gay friendly cute Liberal MP Mark Holland is also leading the Cons in Ajax).

An explanation of what happens in a minority situation... in a nutshell, as PM, Trudeau gets first crack at governing, even if Scheer gets more seats.

The best observation is the last:

"But hung Parliaments can also keep a PM on a short leash. After a campaign in which no leader has sparked broad enthusiasm, that may be what Canadians want."

I can't vote Conservative and I can't vote NDP or Green and I don't want to reward the Liberals because of Trudeau so I think I will spoil my ballot but tick the Liberal box to send a message. The volunteers at the voting booth get the message.

Martin Luther King III endorses Justin Trudeau:

Globe & Mail:

Conservatives hired Kinsella firm to ‘seek and destroy’ Bernier’s People's Party: documents show

-

Scheer refuses to answer the question. VIDEO:

Scheer sure doesn't like to explain anything, does he? He can't be trusted.

It's interesting... last Saturday before the vote and nothing. Nobody at the door, nothing in the mailbox. I'm in the centre of Toronto but nobody seems to be trying. I guess the Liberals take my neighbourhood for granted, the NDP are targeting elsewhere and the Conservatives have just given up. Granted, density has changed everything. You don't go door to door on a house street when there's towers to target.

R352, yeah, that's what I find disturbing about Scheer.

Harper was known to have a ruthless streak, but people basically knew what he stood for. Scheer comes across as more dishonest & evasive than Harper.

1. Hiding his American citizenship.

2. Lying about which university he graduated from

3. Now this document showing the Cons secretly hired Kinsella to destroy Bernier

On the other hand, there's no harm coming from a destroyed Bernier. He and his party are right wing dark.

I don't even mind the gotchas... his citizenship and his fudging are uninteresting to me... political games the political class play to amuse themselves while they don't talk about anything that really matters to the rest of us... but I am deeply uncomfortable with the refusal to acknowledge and address when he's caught out.

I'd like to vote Conservative. A Canadian conservative should be a blue dog Democrat, if that. But since the West got in, that party has been completely fucked.

[quote]there's no harm coming from a destroyed Bernier.

Well, actually what it does is raise the likelihood of a Conservative government. They're trying to knock off a couple points from Bernier's People's Party so that those voters will go back to the Cons. In a close election like this, that could make the difference.

Fair point.

I don't normally post anything by Bernier, but here's his reaction today:

CBC News:

Peoples' Party of Canada files complaint with elections watchdog over what Maxime Bernier calls 'professional smear campaign.'

Thanks for the link, R357. The comments were interesting to read.

Although Bernier discredits himself all by himself every time he opens his mouth, this really is a new low for the CONs. (Well, for this election, anyway.) Dare we hope for some instant karma for Scheer?

Somewhere in the comments, I came across the linked picture, which I enjoyed a lot.

Journalist Glen McGregor of CTV rips Scheer a new one in this clip today for not answering the question:

Probably the best thing that could have happened to the Liberals but I fear outside the base people aren't voting Conservative because they love Scheer or the Conservatives, so it may not change the game much. Besides, if you don't like Conservatives you like Bernier less so you may be inclined to give the Conservatives a pass or a shrug. Everybody knows politics is a shit game with shit tricks played by shit people.

I agree people won't have much sympathy for Bernier, R361, but it may make the Conservatives look bad since Scheer has been so evasive & dishonest about all this.

Maybe. But after SNC I'm not sure how much it matters. One's bound to be worse than the other but do people give it much thought any more? I predict a Liberal minority but they aren't coming back with a majority. Trudeau will govern for a year or eighteen months and then resign... a leadership contest will extend the minority that much longer.

Scheer nervously drinking water while being questioned by Katie Simpson:

Warren Kinsella has deactivated his Twitter account:

Warren Kinsella is obnoxious even for a political type, but he's hardly an isolated political type.

Kinsella has posted a statement on his website, saying he has deactivated his social media accounts.

"I’m pulling back from other media, too," he adds.

Seat update tonight from Eric Grenier:

Liberal seat advantage over the Conservatives inching up. NDP, Bloc appear to have hit a ceiling.

Frank Graves:

Flash! For all those still up I have just received my latest numbers from today . Adding to the most recent I can say with confidence that the LPC are going to win Elxn 43. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority and it is looking like the former

I wonder, how can neo-Nazi fighter Warren Kinsella justify working for a party leader who happily hangs out with neo-Nazis?

If it's a majority it won't be much of one. But I love a cliff hanger election night.

At least we will be rid of Scheer, who will probably resign at some point, if not tomorrow night. But he's damaged in terms of reputation. Whether or not the Conservatives can get their shit together and elect a moderate leader has yet to be seen. I doubt it. They haven't had a moderate since... I can't even remember.

Trudeau I think is less likely than more to try for a third. He will go within eighteen months to two years. He's young, he's rich and no doubt thinks he is far better suited to saving the world from a position where everyone will be nice to him and appreciate the wonders he will perform.

It depends on turnout. The Cons can still win because their sheeple will turn out to vote no matter what. If LPC voters think, Trudeau has this they might stay home

Yeah, I'm surprised Frank is predicting that the Liberals have it in the bag.

They do have the edge in the latest polling, and they're getting good rally sizes in Toronto and even Calgary today.

They also had a big rally in Milton, Ontario yesterday where openly-gay Olympic athlete Adam van Koeverden is running. One of the Bare Naked Ladies joined them on stage:

[quote] Kouvalis is a hardcore right-winger who has worked for many conservatives, including the Fords. So I would be cautious about anything he says

Nick Kouvalis recently released his final polling numbers, and even he is forced to concede that according to his numbers, the Liberals are LEADING in Ontario over the Conservatives. And you can't win government, without winning Ontario

Interesting, R374.

So that explains why Trudeau has been campaigning a lot in Ontario, even in ridings that are currently Conservative, like Milton. If Lisa Rait falls in Milton tomorrow night to Adam van Koeverden, that will be a sign that the Cons are in a bad way.

Scheer is simply a terrible campaigner and leader who can't motivate people, beyond his small base, to show up at his lame rallies.

Jean Chretien, still as good as ever at 85 years old, warns of the dangers of the "Trump mentality" coming to Canada:

Liberals move up to 2-point lead in final Abacus poll. NDP down 2 points.

October 20, 2019

34% LIBERAL (+2 since Oct. 10)

32% CON (=)

16% NDP (-2)

8% BQ (+2)

8% GREEN (-1)

2% PEOPLE'S (=)

The cons need a leader with humanity. Scheer and Trump are like cartoon villains. They hate gays, women immigrants and animals. Everybody knew Harper was an asshole but I remember that he fostered kittens. That always gave him a sliver of humanity to me. Sure he hated people but at least there was something he could love. Scheer just seems like a monster.

[quote]Everybody knew Harper was an asshole but I remember that he fostered kittens. That always gave him a sliver of humanity to me.

I think that was deliberate, although some people joked that it looked like the kitten was trying to get away from Harper in this photo:

This is the crowd in East Vancouver - no way does Andrew Scheer attract crowds like this

Bigger version of R381's photo:

(Lots of security guys around Trudeau)

Vancouver rally clip:

[quote]no way does Andrew Scheer attract crowds like this

Hi, R381. A while back (two weeks, maybe?), there was a picture that had side-by-side shots of crowds at Trudeau and Scheer events. Sorry, I can't find it to re-post now, but the difference was striking. The Trudeau crowd look much like your picture. And the Scheer crowd, if you could even call it that, looked like a few people hanging around a parking lot waiting for the hardware store to open.

Calgary rally last night:

[quote]Everybody knew Harper was an asshole but I remember that he fostered kittens. That always gave him a sliver of humanity to me.

Say what you want about Harper (I certainly wasn't a fan!) but he and his wife contributed money for the care of the feral cat colony that once lived in behind Parliament Hill. It was closed in 2013 after homes were found for all of them.

My grandma and aunt were mean old bitches who hated everybody except cats. I always figured Harper was like that.

EKOS is predicting a strong Liberal minority.

Hmm. Interesting, R388/R389.

Graves also says there is a similarity to the Trump demographics in the U.S.

Women favour the Libs, Men favour the Cons.

University grads favour the Libs, working class favour the Cons.

Older voters are Con, younger voters are NDP.

Does anyone know how accurate EKOS has been over the years? Are the Liberals safe, for sure?

R391, EKOS sometimes leans Liberal. I don't think any of the parties are "safe" going into tomorrow based on the close election this has been until now.

But given that almost all the pollsters agree that the Libs are ahead of the Cons in Ontario, and have decent numbers in Quebec & British Columbia, the Libs probably do have the edge.

Abacus also had the Libs ahead in their final poll earlier today. Ipsos (Con leaning) has the Cons slightly ahead, as does Nanos.

The CBC Poll Tracker by Eric Grenier gives the Libs the edge in the seat count.

In conclusion, the advantage appears to be with the Libs overall, but we won't know for sure until 24 hours from now.

Why are the polls so far apart? I don't know if I'm going to make it through the next 24 hrs. Is anyone else here feeling the same way? I'm so stressed I actually took the day off work.

R373 Adam van Koeverden actually isn't gay. He's married to Chloe Van Lanschoot.

R393 I'm nervous. I'm hoping the polls are right but after 2016 with Brexit and Trump and the fact that conservatives have been winning all over Canada, my fear is that the conservative numbers are under represented....e.g. people are lying about how they intend to vote.

Ugh, R394, I never even thought about people lying in the polls.

I'm not that stressed because I think the Libs will very likely get a minority. The two wild cards are a Bloc sweep and a huge turn-out at the ballot boxes from Tories who didn't show up at Scheer's underwhelming rallies. Even so, Ontario has a long tradition of voting for the party opposed to whoever is in power provincially, and a strong vote against Ford should be enough to ensure a Lib minority.

The polls have had the LIB and CON numbers frighteningly close for ages, so the tension persists. Looking at Eric Grenier's poll tracker at CBC, though, the numbers for projected outcome are more reassuring. Currently, the probability list shows:

Chance of a majority:

LIB: 14%

CON: 1%

Chance of a minority:

LIB: 48%

CON: 36%

[quote]Adam van Koeverden actually isn't gay. He's married to Chloe Van Lanschoot.

Whoops. I guess I got him confused with another athlete.

I guess I thought he was gay because he has the rainbow on his Twitter profile (and one of the Barenaked Ladies showed up to his rally):

R398 I actually thought he was gay for years too, but isn't. He is very gay friendly though.

And also, as a rule I think men with Asian wives are just one stop away from Bi and we know what station that train is really headed to.

I'm sorry but he pings heavily for me in this video.

Voted. I live in London-Fanshawe as I'm going to Western University and the riding is an NDP stronghold so I voted NDP to block a split-vote. I'm nervous. I feel like there are only two ways this can go: 1) the Liberals actually fair way better than previously thought (sort of like Frank Graves is suggesting) or 2) the conservative vote has been under represented in the polls. I'm worried that the advanced polls damaged the Liberals because it came at a time when the Libs were at their lowest this election. '

Global News morning anchor ripped Scheer a new one earlier today:

Are we going to have an official election watch thread?

Scheer is out to lunch. He's ruined unless he forms government, which seems much unlikely. If he didn't sign off on these things, he hired the people who did. His judgement is plain to see.

I don't know who wins. When I voted, mid afternoon, I was surprised by the turn out in a safe Liberal riding. Don't know what it means except that there were more people than I would have expected mid afternoon.

R404, someone started one here:

I never thought I'd miss Brian Mulroney as a Conservative leader and I lived through the 80s.

This thread title didn't age very well, did it?

DL's Scheer troll will need to find a new grifter to shill for next time around,

No, R408--it didn't. Fuck you, OP!!! LMFAO!!!