Brexit and Northern Ireland

It remains exactly the same. If Brussels wants a hard border, let them come implement it.

Won't have to, the Irish will, they're EU

r1, you're aware of the history of Ireland and Northern Ireland, right? Or do they not teach that in Russian schools?

The Russian narrative is sooo weird R3. Dems don’t realize how insane they sound when they link all conspiracies and anyone who disagrees with them to Russia. In ancient history in 2012, Barack Hussein Obama was not saying that.

R3, it is documented. Deal with it, Trumptard. Jaysus, you people are so obtuse and myopic, not to mention seditious.

Northern Ireland has voted to remain in the EU Referendum by a majority of 56% to 44%.

They should tell the racist English troglodytes to fuck off and join the liberal progressive outward looking country to the south, where the catholic kiddie diddlers have been kicked to the curb and where they have a gay immigrant leader

They will keep Elizabeth II as their queen.

No one knows. That's the short answer.

Now be nice to R1, she was obviously dropped on her head repeatedly as a child.

or fetal alcohol syndrome.....all that vodka and all

I've been saying this for months.

Little Britain, the United Kingdom of England and (maybe?) Wales

will the frogs take jersey, guernsey and sark?

Fun fact, R7, well...not really fun but something I was thinking about.

For those of us whom will see the passing of Liz the 2nd, the UK will not be ruled by a Queen for another couple of centuries. We've witnessed this second coming of a (relatively) peaceful Elizabethan era..

"Northern Ireland has voted to remain in the EU Referendum by a majority of 56% to 44%."

Hmm, Vlad didn't interfere in that election for a reason. Perhaps to sew unrest in the UK?

[quote]Perhaps to sew unrest in the UK?

Oh Dear!

and leave it to someone else to stitch up the scraps?

[Quote] Little Britain, the United Kingdom of England and (maybe?) Wales

England

England + Wales = Britain

Britain + Scotland = Great Britain

Great Britain + Northern Ireland = United Kingdom

Why I know this I have no idea. I have no foxhound in the hunt.

[quote] For those of us [bold]whom[/bold] will see the passing of Liz the 2nd,

Oh, [italic]dear.[/italic]

r17, thanks for clarifying that, genuinely.

But uh so are the years of car bombs back?

You're welcome. But I'm a fan of Little Britain fir the record.

What a depressing prospect of car bombs again, however dim r19. I just hope Scotland leaves, England slides and Ireland becomes so rich, Ulster will join it peacefully. I hate violence.

Ireland for the Irish. No more colonies!

No more divided nations!

If we impose conditions that, under international law, make a hard border necessary, do we simply rip up the Good Friday Agreement? That is, do we rip up an international peace treaty that brought an end to a decades-long state of civil war in our own country?

There is NO "practical solution" to the border issue in Ireland outside the single market and the customs union that doesn't violate the terms of the Good Friday Agreement. We leave without a deal, we trample all over a peace treaty.

As I have said elsewhere, move the hard border between NI and Britain. Keep NI as a bit of EU for Britain. Will save face too.

The Troubles.

The gall. Its clear England thinks of Ireland in a patronizing and superior manner. They must think the Irish are idiots and pushovers.

"The UK government also sought to find a role for the Northern Ireland assembly in the future negotiations but an EU diplomat said: “The EU negotiates with the UK authorities at the departing stage and not its constituent elements.

“Having Stormont overturn an agreed and ratified agreement at a later stage prior to the backstop entering into force will undermine the withdrawal. A curious ask given the fact that currently Stormont hasn’t sat for over two years?”

How about a borderless border?

How sweetly ironic it would be if there's reunification and Ireland becomes richer and more powerful than England.

I would imagine the same thing that happens at the Chunnel, people keep talking like N Ireland is the only border, just because Great Britain is surrounded by water doesn't mean that there is no border there. People and goods pass through a border to get from France to Great Britain also.

England doesn't want to move the border between NI and Britain. Ireland and EU could live with it.

England's afraid of losing NI. It's actually a good solution as Britain will have a piece of EU still within its borders. But they are understandably worried the sins of their forbears will visit upon them. History's a bitch.

If I'm not mistaken, having the border between Britain and Northern Ireland is what constituted the backstop solution proposed by May. However, it was the point on which the DUP would not agree to and caused the end of the coalition between them and the Tories.

Yes I believe May did.

No, the backstop is that there is NO border between NI and the Republic of Ireland, and also no border between NI and the rest of the UK. It means that the entire UK remains in a customs union with the EU (and adheres to EU standards for goods) until some kind of better (technological?) solution for the intra-Irish border is found.

That's what drove the Brexit Jacobins crazy, and made them reject every one of May's agreement drafts.

r30 Please stop using "England" when you mean the United Kingdom.

I think r30 actually does mean England. It’s not the Scottish part of the UK that’s desperate to keep Northern Ireland.

So the current proposal is move it in a few miles. Meh. Moving it to between NI and England would be great - piss off the Unionist rednecks but they know they need Ireland too. What a ckusterf***

[Quote] [R30] Please stop using "England" when you mean the United Kingdom...

R34 I use both England and Britain in the post. Read it as carefully as I wrote it. Go reread it.

This is a good read

Bump

The IRA were badass. Let them start to blow up various places and people in England again and get their island back from the 17th century invaders who haven't evolved much since. Brenda and Brian, remember what happened to Louie? You're next.

Everyone who has ever visited Ireland and NI knows that these countries will never accept a hard border again. These "countries" are now neighbours, friends, family. England should just accept it and make NI a special administrative region.

Relax kids, Brexit isn't happening.

It is an impossible situation. A hard border will see a return to armed conflict without a doubt. I imagine there will be a border poll at some point if hard Brexit happens which the Loyalist hardliners will fight tooth and nail to avoid as they are likely to lose. I am not certain whether the petition of concern comes into play in this scenario whereby the DUP can veto virtually anything they don’t like which is why the marriage equality laws and abortion laws are still as they are in NI.

Policing the Irish border will be pointless as there are well over 200 road crossing plus farmers who have land both sides of the border and lots of houses where gardens even the houses themselves etc are on both sides. As one lady said if there were a hard border she would just pop into her neighbours garden and hop over the hedge. The border would need to be at the Irish Sea which the ferry companies are, or at least were, gearing up for in the North. The DUP are unhappy about the border being there though as they say NI is being treated differently to the rest of the U.K. but in their stupidity cannot accept that NI benefits greatly if this is the case. The South have no obligation to police the border so it will all have to be done from the North side if that comes about. Basically they either leave NI in some kind of non Brexit limbo - best option for everyone as a whole. They establish a hard border and return to the ‘Troubles’ which is what BJ is happy to allow or there is a border poll, Ireland becomes reunited which will upset hardline Loyalists and there will be armed conflict from their side.

Yup anything but “limbo” will start up the violence again.

Is Sinn Fein still around? Their take on the sitch?

R45, the Shinners are the second biggest party in NI but as the assembly has not been sitting since January 2017 none of the parties have very much influence as to what happens at the moment. Obviously they would be looking for a border poll. I think that is going to happen relatively soon whatever happens as the demographics in NI change.

R46 What do you think would happen it they have a border poll? Do you think the results would be accepted peacefully by both sides?

R46 DUP and Arlene Foster holds the key to Brexit reports say. If DUP is in the picture, why not Sinn Fein? Does media blank them out?

Greer isn't far off in her comment about America. It's how I ended up with a big of Irish ancestry from my Mom. Clan Seymour.

We’re the 51st state! We even called our airport lounge post US border security in Dublin, 51st and Green. My mother has 4 siblings in the US, my grandfather was in the US army and his 3 brothers were too buy they stayed and are still there. I have more living relatives in the US than in Ireland and that’s not unusual for those of us in rural Ireland.

Don’t underestimate the self-defeating measures anger and bitterness can encourage. Just like Brexit was seemingly illogical but won because of angry Brits, the DUP and poor Proddies in NI would probably sacrifice their better economic interests for a “principled” stand to remain in the UK. Anger is seething just below the surface in the fading middle classes of the West and just needs a little prodding to be turned into self-immolating political policies.

The anger is justified but misdirected. It should be the Conservatives they should be angry at and not let themselves be manipulated into blaming immigrants and Europe for the pathetic state of their lives.

R47, there would be violence from the loyalist paramilitaries and a lot of civil unrest initially. I think it would eventually calm down but at what cost. I think there is a fair amount of anger at Westminster over their treatment of NI and there does seem a shift among some of the more moderate Unionists towards considering their place in the union but honestly it is hard to tell what would happen in reality.

In the ROI we hear that unification is the answer, that the NIrish votes to remain and that they younger generation want unification. Lots of people think it’s “simple” and they think they should just get in with it and unite Ireland once and for all. I’m not sure about that though. In general we have little idea what the North is like. None of the people saying it’s very easy and simple have even been to the North! Neither have I so I’m trying to be devils advocate and not get too excited about the prospect of a united ireland. I really cannot see it happening and I can easily see violence starting again.

Leaving aside the politics where I live (rural Ireland) there are housing estates full of unemployed and underemployed young men who are looking for trouble to pass the time and give their lives meaning. They’re a scourge in an otherwise scenic and peaceful area. I assume the North is the same and it wouldn’t take much for those young man to take up the cause again.

Even in the ROI the “troubles” are romanticised by guys my age who weren’t even born at the time but all it takes is a few drinks before young lads are singing rebel songs and toasting Bobby Sands.

Good insight - thanks R54. As we in the US have seen, un(der)employed rural young men can be swayed to turn violently racist if given the opportunity.

R48, after the last election the DUP were needed to give the government a working majority and were bribed to do that with extra funding. Sinn Fein don’t take their seats at Westminster and due to the lack of a working assembly they have virtually no voice at the moment.

Good point r54 but don't complicate unification unnecessarily. It can't be worse than what you have now and what is coming.

They can even get the government they agreed on to function - the Good Friday deal is holding on by a thread as it is.

Thanks for the info R56 but no working assembly? That's fucked up. Why not, at a time like this?

R54, I used to go drinking in the Felons in West Belfast. It is decorated with pictures of the hunger strikers. There is a degree of romanticisation of the rebels and you would still get young ones just looking for a reason to fight but I don’t think the connection still exists. As for the rebel songs, they mean little to a lot of the young ones now. Look at the Fields of Athenry. Every man and his wife sings that at rugby and yet it is about the effects of British rule during the famine. There is still rioting in the Ardoyne on many weekends and the sectarian effigies and pictures are placed on the bonfires from each side. Plus the ‘flegs’ of course. However, there has been a lot of work done in schools especially those near peace lines and things there have improved. There still needs to be a lot of work done in East Belfast and in some of the Loyalist estates in places like Antrim, Ballymena etc. It is a long slow process.

It's long. It's slow. But there's also the historical moment. Carpe diem. It is here.

R59, it broke down in January 2017. Seriously, the easiest thing would be to google it but basically the two main parties couldn’t agree over policies and because of shenanigans by the DUP over a renewable heating initiative. There has not been a working government in Northern Ireland since then and it is currently being run by civil servants. One of the very few good things which might come out of this is the change in abortion legislation and marriage equality which the DUP has been blocking. If the assembly is not sitting by the 21st of this month then both of those should be brought about. Sorry, I have veered very much away from the Brexit question here. Apologies, OP.

Don’t apologise it’s very interesting and useful information that even most of us Irish people don’t know/understand.

Thanks R62. Maybe there is an argument that the government SHOULD be run by bureaucrats. Seems DUP are a nasty group of opportunists who throw a wrench in everything.

Oh r62 I'm here to be part of this lovely nest of vipers, not for research or I'd google it. I'd rather hear it from you darling than Jimmy Wales!

Because of a heating disagreement!? Now that's seriously fucked up. Or was that a typo?? When the future of the country is teetering on the edge.

But I'm sure OP won't mind. It's such a fascinating look at how local politics fires local ticket items like Brexit.

To an outsider, it would seem that Sinn Fein needs to get in the conversation and not be sidelined at a time like this. If it is. Doesn't this relate directly to what they've been fighting for. In fact I would expect they are in the middle if it as much as the DUP. That's why I question the media coverage.

So tell me r62, even if the assembly is not working have the Sinn Fein been making themselves heard from the rooftops?

R65, no I meant heating. There was a scheme which Arlene Foster was behind whereby people - non domestic users - who bought into renewable heating would be given a subsidy. The subsidy was so big that in effect you were being paid to use the system. For every £1 of heating you used you received a £1.62 subsidy - I think that was the figure so basically you earned £0.62p. There were instances whereby farmers were heating huge empty barns in order to receive the subsidy. Arlene Foster was told about this and for a long period of time did absolutely nothing about it and refused to take any responsibility for the whole debacle. It cost Northern Ireland about £400 million in the end - a huge chunk of the domestic budget. As she refused to resign Sinn Fein refused to sit on the Assembly with her and on this issue I completely agreed with them.

Sinn Fein are fairly vocal at a local level but because they don’t sit at Westminster they have had very little to say at a national level - you don’t see them on the national news much at all. It isn’t that they are being silenced just that they are much involved in that sense. There are times when it would be very much in their interests to take up their seats at Westminster but because of this stupid allegiance to the crown thing they refuse to do it. I can admire their principle but often they are cutting off their noses to spite the face.

Then the Sinn Fein should be taking to the streets. Or the Twittersphere. It's not wise to sit this one out on the national level totally.

Sorry r62 putting you on the block. You've been very gracious and informative.

You are welcome, r67. I suspect Sinn Fein might believe that a hard Brexit will work to their advantage in terms of making a border poll more likely and the disgruntled unionist remainers voting for reunification. I certainly would be. On paper I would be put among the unionists but actually have always voted Alliance/Green/SDLP depending on the election. It is great having a PR system in NI because it does meant the smaller parties can pick up seats and have some say.

Very insightful thread. Thanks, all!

So now the DUP is sidelined! They must be furious.

R26, that is how the English view every country they have ever ruled. Particularly the upper-class English. They show a face of reserve and the stiff upper-lip as well as "sophistication", but behind closed-doors, they talk about how they civilized these "barbaric" countries and how they should all be thankful to the English.

I don't know about Boris deal overall or other parts, but I like the idea of a border in the Irish Sea.

R17, you are terrific. Thank you for explaining that clearly and succinctly, but doesn't the U.K. also include some islands in the Caribbean and the English Channel and Bermuda? Are those islands considered part of the Commonwealth?

R71 nailed it.

It is so shocking to know that the NI government is basically not working. Another sign of how broken democracy has become. Maybe the ability of the internet to create independent worlds of thought and an echo chamber of political thought contributes. But the ability to work together with different political parties is falling apart. Just us and them.