The 2020 senate races

OP you assume Dems won't lose seats

I suspect Doug Jones will lose in Alabama

I would bet we actually win Kentucky and particularly Kansas. Kobach was too extreme even for Kansas in the last gubernatorial race (he lost in a not-close race even though Republicans had held that seat for decades), and McConnell is not popular at all in Kentucky.

Mark Kelly's race looks strong. In Arizona it all comes down to voter turnout; if Hispanics and Native Americans show up to vote, he can win.

Mitch may be unpopular in KY, but Trump's net approval rating in KY is 15 percent. The question is does Trump have coattails?

Kris is a sexy muscle stud. I'd love to get ahold of him and his man meat.

I don't think anyone's expecting Doug Jones to hold on to Alabama, but he's really the only vulnerable Democrat who's up.

Colorado and Arizona have both been seen as possible pick-ups, so conventional wisdom gives those two to Democrats and Alabama to the GOP, which leaves the Democrats one short.

But conventional wisdom hasn't factored in how badly Susan Collins' has tanked in Maine--the GOP have noticed though--they're pouring money into that race. I think it's a pick-up opportunity though. And I agree with OP that NC and Iowa are outside shots.

Trump's strength in Kentucky explain's Amy McGrath's campaign strategy--that McConnell's the problem, not Trump--weird, but I will take a Joe-Manchin type Democrat in Kentucky.

Republicans did not hold the Kansas governors mansions for decades. Kathleen Sebelius won two terms last decade. I'm betting Kansas isn't as Republican as some think. We picked up one of the 4 congressional seats last year and another one was really close. A third we kept really close several years ago.

[quote]Democrats got their A-list candidate in Mark Kelly, former astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain and wife of Gabby Giffords.

Has he transitioned?

Corey Lewandowski is running against the extremely popular Dem incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen here in NH.

Corey Lewandowski? The scumbag? He's running for public office?

HAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Oh my god, that is just fantastic. I love how stupid these guys are, I just love it.

People are underestimating Susan Collins. If she is on the ballot she will be the favorite to win. I’d say Maine is Lean R at this point.

Doug Jones will lose. There’s no scenario where he will be able to hold his seat in a presidential year.

No, Collins will not win, she was a dumb, gullible (or lying) cunt on Kav and she's finished. The only senator less popular at home than Collins these days is Moscow Mitch.

It looks as though our old pal Judge Roy "teen freak" Moore may win the Alabama Republican primary. Good news for Doug Jones and the Democratic Party.

Hickenlooper takes down Gardner - easily.

Whatsherface with the great dog Boomer is a goner, no way she beats Giffords' husband, astronaut Mark Kelly.

There are all kinds of possibilities for the Democrats in the Senate this election. Good times.

If Moore is the nominee then he will be heading to the senate. Alabama is a state with the most inelastic voters. Split ticket voting isn’t a thing there. Trump will win the state by 20 points. Jones won with an absolute perfect storm. Anyone who thinks he has a chance in 2020 knows nothing about politics.

Jones beats Moore, R14, watch and learn.

You really think your gonna find tens of thousands of Trump/Jones voters in ALABAMMA? It’s not happening. It’s a waste of time and money. There are better races to focus on.

Just watch, R16, Jones beats Moore.

Beyond that, having Moore as a Republican candidate hurts the entire Republican Party - every single candidate. We don't have to spend so much in Alabama, we'll get a lot of the publicity for free.

The Orange Retard is sucking up all the money. Right now Senate Dems are raising a lot more than Senate Repugs.

I hereby subpoena @PollTroll . You are Ordered to appear at your leisure (we know you are busy doing poll things ) . However, we need your expertise on this matter. So Submitted this the 25th Day of August, 2019.

Anyone who thinks Collins is a sure bet for re-election hasn't been paying attention to her polls--Trump is very unpopular in Maine and Collins' approval ratings plunged after she approved Kavanaugh. In July her approval rating was 45 percent. Collins' likely opponent looks pretty strong as well.

r9 Are you implying Kelly's a freak?

r20 Well, if he's Gabby Giffords' WIFE, he has some 'splainin' to do.

MItch said something lately that implied that he thought the Rs would lose.

And the Cook Report has moved Maine from "leans Republican" to "toss-up." Other states in that category are Colorado, Arizona and Alabama. All the other races are rated "likely" or "solid."

But Collins may have blown her once solid seat on that Kavanaugh vote. Serves her right.

Martha McSally (R) is already trailing the generic Democrat in Arizona by 6 points.

Mark Kelly (D) or Ruben Gallegos (D) will likely take the Senate seat in Arizona.

I can dream about a Democratic Senate. I need the peace of mind.

When the Democrats lost incumbents last year in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Florida they sealed their fate. Slim chance of taking the Senate in 2020.

It's not sealed--there are just enough toss-up seats that it's a big question mark--particularly with Susan Collins' approval rankings doing a huge nose dive.

[quote] OP you assume Dems won't lose seats

Bear in mind that most of the open Senate seats in 2020 are currently held by Republicans, just as most of the open seats in 2018 were held by Democrats.

In 2020, The Senate is going to end up in a 50-50 split. Which ever party controls the WH will control the Senate.

Joe Kennedy should wait until Harris wins the presidency. Then he could run for her seat.

I admire Joe Kennedy III's fervor and I hope he runs for Senate.

Those telling him to wait it out need to shut up. Ed Markey is 73 years old and has served in congress for [bold]4 decades[/bold]. Joe was not even alive when Markey first enter congress !

Joe is a young Gen X (38 yrs.). Boomers need to know when to pass the torch. They have kept Gen Xers waiting for two decades.

In R30, I meant to write “Warren”, not “Harris”. If Liz wins, there will be an election for her seat in a couple months.

I like having experienced Senators. And I believe that when all other things are equal, one should stick with the incumbent.

The only Democrat who's seen as vulnerable is Doug Jones in Alabama--and he is definitely vulnerable. However, Democrats are likely to pick up both Arizona and Colorado, particularly now that Hickenlooper's in the game. Throw in Maine and the Senate is definitely in play with either another pick-up or Doug Jones holding on.

Mark Kelly could win because the middle class in CA are moving to Nevada and Arizona turning AZ blue. I think Doug Jones will hold on in Alabama.

And now Isakson in Georgia is retiring early, special election to be held in 2020. The DSCC needs to figure out how we can with BOTH seats in the Peach State.

Susan Collins is toast. She either retires or loses. It wasn't just the Kavanaugh vote, but the way she did it. Her long, self-serving speech on the Senate Floor, the way she ignored people who tried to get her to see the light, her doubling down on it since then. She hasn't got a fucking clue. She used to be half-decent for a Republican. Not anymore. I think Mainers see that. They haven't elected an outright Dem to the senate since the 80's. Trump's approval here is like -13. No way she hangs on.

There will be surprises.

Susan Collins has a lot of friends in the senate. She’s already been endorsed by Joe Manchin (D). Maine Democratic Representative Jared Golden has said he will stay neutral in the race because he worked for Susan Collins and admires her as “the hardest working person he has ever seen.”

Collins won when Clinton was in the White House. She won handily even though George W Bush was unpopular and she won when Barak Obama took Maine twice.

Collins & the GOP have already spread the underground whisper-campaign that George Soros is pouring money into the race to unseat her. They’re also spreading the notion that Collins’ opponent is a socialist who’s going to take away their private health care - and all the good doctors will leave medicine because they can’t support themselves, leaving Mainers with bad doctors and socialized medicine.

It’s kind of hard for us to reconcile the idea of billionaires buying socialist candidates, but it’s easy for the Fox News viewers in Maine. Outside of Portland, Maine is Alabama with pine trees. And they love Susan Collins. Collins opponent, Sarah Gideon doesn’t even have a position on health care except that she wants to avoid Medicare for All, because that would allow republicans to paint her as a socialist. When asked about expanding the Supreme Court, Gideon refused to even think about commenting on it. She was also asked if she supported Chuck Schumer to be senate majority leader and wouldn’t answer.

These are all things the GOP are going all-in on as campaign issues. Schumer is hatred as a big city Jewish New Yorker who wants to run the country as if it was NYC. Medicare for All and the Green New Deal are socialism...communism even! Climate change is a hoax.

[quote] “Advertising Analytics projects spending in the race at $55 million, easily the most expensive in Maine history. Outside groups are already softening up Collins.

[quote] “People in Maine do not like billionaires coming to our state to take out our senator,” said former GOP state Sen. David Trahan.

[quote] Collins adds: “I have never seen the far left as energized."

It’s not going to be easy to take out Susan Collins and her opponent needs to work on just what her own positions are if she’s going to portray Collins as a waffling ditherer who can’t make up her mind about where she stands on issues.

[quote] Anyone who thinks Collins is a sure bet for re-election hasn't been paying attention to her polls.

Nobody is saying Collins is a sure thing. Nobody has said that since her Kavanaugh vote.

What people are saying is this -- don't be so sure Collins will lose. She's been there for decades; people feel safe with incumbents; circumstances in Maine haven't changed drastically for the worse in the past 6 years; Collins is seen by moderates as independent and a person who has stood up to Trump.

Collins' ability to paint herself as a victim of "dark money" from billionaire "outsiders" (aka Soros, aka "cosmopolitan" Jews) and from far left supporters of declared socialists like AOC and Muslims like Rashida Tlaib will all work in her favor in a sparsely populated state where Collins can fly to 5 towns in one day by helicopter or prop plane. She has name recognition to the point where Mariners see themselves when they see her face.

A lot of Mainers are descendents of French Catholics from Canada. Portland will definitely vote against her, but the rest of the state sees her as a good catholic girl who voted for a good catholic boy for the SCOTUS.

Using bam-sock-pow-splat rhetoric against her will only make Mainers see her as Maine's hometown girl being ravaged by socialist commies from NY and San Francisco.

Declaring she will be easy to beat makes her harder to beat.

Susan Collins will not win again. Her problem is that she thinks it's still the electorate of yesteryear, which it's NOT. Maine is a hard state to stereotype: it has a lot of independents, some Republicans. But overall, it's blue leaning. In this increasingly polarized electorate, Collins has done lots to piss of the left, which are itching to get a real Dem senator here. Let's also not forget her ignorant vote for Trump's hideous tax bill. She was left looking like a clueless dolt there. Collins has been right on some issues, but Gideon needs to expose her weak spots and hammer her relentless on them.

So far Gideon has exposed her own weak spots and hasn't identified her strong ones. Someone running against a 4 term incumbent needs to be a lot better than that. Democrats should've had a list of positions and talking points other than "Susan Collins must go because Kavanaugh/tax cut" to hand to Sarah Gideon.

And keep calling Collins a clueless cunt if you want her to win. Her operatives are combing the net right now for examples of "far left" hysteria to use in her favor.

Is Collins female?

Look here. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Susan is not winning again. By 2016, the electorate was so polarized that NO state voted differently for senator than President party-wise. In a state where Trump's rating is usually something like minus 13, Susan can be several points more popular than him and she's still gonna get burned. Ain't nobody overcoming that kind of drag on the ticket.

Collins doesn't even think she's vulnerable. That is probably her biggest weak spot, more than anything. Maine is more center-left than anything. Even if you argue Collins isn't that particularly vulnerable, Mainers overall HATE Trump. She would need a hell of a lot of split-ticket voters and I don't see that happening.

So Georgia will now have 2 senate races next year. It's really essential that we take both, because whichever party wins one will likely win the other. Not to mention, the Dem presidential candidate needs those electoral votes. We need the trifecta. Kinda shocked and bummed Stacey Abrams isn't running for anything. Is she hoping for VP?

Alaska may be an outside chance. The incumbent is freshman Sen. Dan Sullivan. Trump's approval is underwater here and Sullivan only barely won this seat in 2014 in a red wave against a flawed opponent. The other senator -- Lisa Murkowski -- can't break the 40 percentile in any election or primary. The state's sole congressman -- Republican Don Young, came within a small handful of percentage points of losing last year. It may be a reach, but we need someone strong here to at least keep it close and drain the GOP's resources.

So is Stacey waiting for Joe to make her his VP or what?

Collins is toast in Maine. I don't know who the "Oh my god no, don't say that" troll is, but Collins is, in fact, toast.

Exactly. Collins has a 48% disapproval in a state she's represented for 24 years. She's not recovering from that. If she's smart, she'll retire, but she isn't, so who knows. Republicans would probably nominate some diehard conservative in that case, which would all but guarantee the seat becomes ours come 2021.

You know what's sad? Reading this whole thread, I just keep thinking, "Russia will make sure the Repugs don't lose." It colors everything and makes all predictions mean absolutely nothing. We'll be 15 points ahead in some poll and then a "surprising upset" will happen and all anyone will talk about in the media is how the polling must have just been wrong when we all know exactly what happened. It's exactly what happened in the Florida governor and senate races in 2018. And, there has been nothing done to change or stop it.

I think Collins is one of the seats the Russians will switch.

No, R46, we'll never say "Oh the polling must have been all wrong" again. Never.

Now we know better.

Just remember, kids, Russians (or any attackers) need a close race. Turn out in huge numbers and they can't fix it.

Nah. The race in Maine isn't going to be close enough for the Russians to flip it.

Turnout turnout turnout, that's the way we thwart the attacks and win in any state.

I have a feeling Collins will just retire

Stacy has optioned herself to irrelevancy. Senator or governor, she’s chosen to wait for a VP nomination that won’t happen.

Pffl. Has it occurred to anyone that the Russians gave Hillary pneumonia? Remember that Trump was talking about her cough long before it was obvious to the average person?

Collins deserves to be kicked to the curb where her deplorable wrinkly old ass belongs!

[quote]You really think your gonna find tens of thousands of Trump/Jones voters in ALABAMMA? It’s not happening. It’s a waste of time and money. There are better races to focus on.

There doesn't need to be the main reason Jones won last time was because of two things: Democratic voters were fired up and turned out, but the other part was that many Republican voters just didn't show up, because they didn't like Moore. If he wins the nomination, I suspect there will be a large number of GOP voters in Alabama, that might not vote for Jones but will leave the ballot blank for the Senate race. Honestly, I don't think he will be the nominee, the GOP power brokers will do everything they can to keep that from happening. I know someone who works behind the scenes in Southern politics, and he has told me there is major horse trading going on to get people to coalesce around any of the remaining candidates, basically anyone but Moore.

R8, I live in Kansas and it IS as Republican as you think, it's just that there are quite a few pragmatic, practical Republicans so horrible Republican candidates can still lose. That stated, horrible Steve Watkins was an atrocious candidate but still managed to eke out a win in the second congressional district. Right now, the establishment Republicans are turning on him and the machine is looking for a primary opponent for him.

The other big problem is that the Democrats do not have a bench at all so there is no one really to run for the Senate seat...unless they can talk Kathleen Sebelius in to it which there have been rumors about being in the works. But she just turned 71 so age is also a consideration.

[quote]No, [R46], we'll never say "Oh the polling must have been all wrong" again. Never.

We won't. We never did. But the media will. They might make a slight mention of something seeming really off but they won't do the follow up. They won't go far enough to make the accusation, no matter how much proof. That's why the Repugs and the Russians feel completely safe cheating all the time.

[quote] I live in Kansas

Please let us know where we can send a sympathy card.

[quote] Look here. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Susan is not winning again

Well if YOU say so it MUST be true!

The contents of the Steel Dossier was know to many members of the Press, long before it was released to the public, due to the lack of confirmation from a second source. While I appreciate that this filters out misinformation, I also find it frustrating to know only half the story that so many others already knew. .

The only way the Republicans can paint the Democrats as Socialists is if the Democrats let them. The Democrats haven’t mastered the art of perception, irony, nor verbal fisticuffs.

the Democratic field in Kansas isn't exactly nothing. US Attorney Barry Grissom and former congresswoman Nancy Boyda of the 2nd district are in the mix. others are considering. The republican options so far are Kobach and the 30-year-old state treasurer.

Which sort of reminds me, Nebraska one state to the north may be another outside chance. Trump's approval is underwater there right now and farmers are PISSED about what he has done to them, essentially taking everything they had away from them. The incumbent Republican is one-term senator Ben Sasse.

[quote]The Democrats haven’t mastered the art of perception, irony, nor verbal fisticuffs.

That's crap. The media shapes the story. The Democrats can literally turn blue doing all the right things but the media reports whataboutism and "both sides" bullshit no matter how insane the Repug side is. Plus, the Democrats have this weird thing about truth, honesty, and general humanity. Makes fighting blatant lies, dishonesty, and abject inhumanity a little more difficult.

AARP released a poll today showing the race in Kentucky tied between McGrath & McConnell, but it needs to be treated with caution until other polling comes out:

There have been rumors for months that Collins isn't going to run again. She told Bloomberg in August she won' decide until November if she's going to run again.

Democrats need to remember we need the Senate as much as we need the WH and those who claim they won't vote for this one or that one for president still need to get out there and vote Democrats into the Senate. With a D Senate and D Congress there will be little Trump or any Republican president can do if God forbid a Democrat doesn't win.

Yes, R64, Collins was almost unbeatable in Maine until recently. She had some of the highest approval ratings in the Senate until this past year.

Her numbers have taken a huge hit this year, and Morning Consult's Senate rankings last month showed her as the 2nd most unpopular after Mitch McConnell. It has shaken her confidence, although if I had to predict I think she is still leaning towards running again.

But she's not as certain of victory as in the past, and that has caused her to prognosticate more than usual.

Collins benefited from a lot of democrat leaning independents voting for her in huge numbers. Her Kavanaugh vote blew that up. Now that he’s back in the lime light with these new allegations I’m betting she’s leaning towards not running. I’m sure Mitch is throwing anything he can at her to decide to run because if she doesn’t the seat will 100% go blue. If she ran, I’d put Maine solidly in the “toss up” category.

She probably wants to retire to spend more times looking after her concerns.

Yes, R67, Mitch has already said he will send lots of Republican campaign money to Maine to help Collins, and Miss Lindsey has been doing a couple of fundraisers for her lately.

They want her to stay so that they will have the incumbency advantage. If she retires, Gideon would probably become the frontrunner for the Dems.

Sen. Angus King (I-ME) who caucuses with the Democrats has one of the best approval ratings in the Senate, and the Dems took the Maine Governor's race last year.

OP, I haven’t heard one pundit say this for weeks. I don’t think precedents exist, I do we all need to get the hell out and vote Blue up and down. Even Nicole Wallace said she’s going to run her ballot no matter what.

Sep 18, 2019

"Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach trails Democrat Barry Grissom by 10 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup for Kansas' open Senate seat in 2020, according to internal GOP polling data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal."

Also, the Republican establishment got Jake LaTurner, the Treasurer in Kansas, to drop out of the Senate race and primary horrible second district congress creep, Steve Watkins. That stated, I can't imagine that they won't come up with someone else to hold Kobach at bay as they know that is a risky nominee...although it will be in a presidential election year so that will boost all Republican candidates.

Yes, it's too soon to make any predictions for Kansas.

The Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in Kansas since FDR was President.

But the low numbers for Kobach are a warning sign for his candidacy. He already caused the Republicans to lose the Governorship to the Democrats last year.

Since someone asked in the Mueller thread whether it slowed down because it went to subscriber only...

Yes, it did. Sometime this afternoon.

I don't believe that Kobach is going to be the nominee. It will almost certainly be Mike Pompeo and he'll win in a landslide (even though he shouldn't).

Go Joe Kennedy!

Some Vulnerable Senate Republicans Being Outraised by Opponents

October 24, 2019

President Donald Trump is raising record amounts of cash for his 2020 reelection. But that fundraising might isn’t spilling over to the most vulnerable Republicans fighting to hold onto their seats in a narrowly divided Senate.

During the third quarter, former astronaut Mark Kelly took in $2.5 million more than Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon bested longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins by over $1 million. And in Colorado, Cory Gardner, who led Senate Republicans’ campaign arm in 2018, barely outraised former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who had been in the race just five weeks before the quarter ended.

The trouble for Republicans extends to states where they’re supposed to be on firmer ground. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst didn’t crack $1 million and was outraised by the leading Democrat. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis narrowly outraised Democrat Cal Cunningham but is also facing a primary challenge from the right that has forced him to spend millions in early TV and radio ads.

The lagging numbers suggest that much of the enthusiasm among the GOP base is focused on Trump and doesn’t necessarily translate to Republicans running for other offices. Democrats, meanwhile, are paying close attention to races across the board, including the House, Senate and presidency, fueling them with small-dollar donations that Republicans have struggled to counter.

[Full article at link]: