All of the so-called political "experts" are predicting Republicans to hold the senate in 2020. I say nonsense. Here's why.
Pickup seat #1 - Colorado. Republican incumbent Cory Gardner sports ugly approval-disapproval numbers. So does Trump. The state is fairly well educated and Gardner is the last Republican holding statewide office currently. Two term governor Hickenlooper is now in, but we probably didn't need him anyways since this should be an easy win for whoever the Team Blue nominee is.
Pickup seat #2 - Maine. Yes, Susan Collins has been popular in the past. But politics is changing and Collins doesn't seem intelligent enough to grasp that. She's given every indication that she doesn't think she will have a tough race in 2020 because she hasn't had one since the 90's. But politics is more polarized than ever, and Collins is the last Republican congressman (woman) in the entire New England area as well as the last Republican holding statewide elected office in Maine. Her approval rating has tanked since the Kavanaugh vote and Trump is not popular here.. I think she's toast. She will probably be 2020's version of "Old-timer caught off-guard", assuming she runs again.
Pickup seat #3 - Arizona. Appointed Republican incumbent Martha McSally has already been rejected by Arizona voters and she continues to be up to her eyeballs in scandals and finance/ethics charges. Democrats got their A-list candidate in Mark Kelly, former astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain and wife of Gabby Giffords. A recent poll had Kelly up 46-41. 41 is pretty ugly for an incumbent. In addition to flipping the other senate seat last year, Dems also won the Secretary of State's office and Trump's approval here is usually underwater by about 9 points.
Pickup seat #4 - North Carolina. No other state in the union has thrown out more incumbent senators in recent times than North Carolina. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is mostly unknown and unpopular. Democrats currently hold the governors mansion, the Attorney General and Secretary of State's office here. Statewide elections here tend to be very close, but Tillis has lots to worry about.
Pickup seat #5 - Iowa. Democrats currently hold 3 of the state's 4 congressional districts and may do a clean sweep in 2020 as Steve King continues to be an asshole. He almost lost last year, as did the Republican governor. Trump's approval ratings are usually underwater here by about a dozen points. This is a very winnable race and Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is a Freshman, so she's not entrenched by any means.
So even if we lose Alabama (possible), there's our U.S. Senate. I'm also thinking we will win at least one the following: Texas (very close last time), Kansas (open seat, Trump's approval ratings middling, possibility of Kobach or other weak nominee), Kentucky (McConnel with approval ratings in the 30's,), Georgia (close statewide elections last year and often in recent times), and maybe another surprise or two.