Democratic Field Being Culled--FINALLY!

**We are DOWN to 21 candidates**

OH DEAR!!!!

Just settle on Mayor Pete for G.j God's sake!

Well, first Pete will need to show some sustained growth like Warren. He has flopped back down since the Southbend shooting. The man’s campaign just had an event in South Chicago, at the freaking Harold Washington Center (named after the city’s first black mayor), and the crowd was as white as a Minnisota winter. Pete is also another bought and paid for candidate that raised vast sums of money at well healed donor parties. So he may sound nice and all he will he really take on big business to spearhead the common sense polices needed to help the middle class? I’m just not convinced at this time. He has no record to use as a gauge so I have to go by feelings.

R3 is a Warren shill. Pete has a highly diverse donor base. I wonder if R3 is even gay as they did not mention that Harold Washington was gay as any true gay would.

R4 I am gay and helped make his donor list look even more divers as a gay black man. Please stop with the Warren shrill part. She is now my number one choice, but she is also the ONLY candidate to have sustained growth since the start of this Primary. ThoUgh we are very early in the process and votes haven’t been casted. Pete, Harris, Beto all had a rise and fall.

I am really grappling with the idea of supporting another centrist or going for aggressive change in someone like Warren. I won’t event go over to Bernie.

No need to attack someone when I’m staring the obvious, Pete needs to fix his issues within the black community. His campaign even created a black community outreach position because this is a real issue for them. I follow Pete and send him and Warren financial support. Please stop with the attacks.

I am going to miss Jay Inslee and his commitment to climate change. Thank you for drawing focused attention to our second greatest threat, the first as you said being donald. Inslee can have his pick of cabinet posts under the new President.

Plus, Gov. Inslee is a hunk! One of the talking heads said he could be cast as older Superman!

Doubtful Kirsten Gillibrand will make the next debate.

Tulsi and Gillebrand need to go next. it will boil down to include Biden, Sanders (ugh!) Warren, Harris, Mayor Pete, Castro, Booker. I'm sorry Inslee had to drop out. But I will look forward to saying good bye to Yang, Delaney, Bullock, Ryan, and possibly Burnet. Klobuchar is on thin ice but she might hang on for a few more months. Mary Ann Williamson & Beto need to go too. So, IMO 7- 8 is the magic number. But then we have to see what the deadlines a re for people to file for other offices.

[quote] Pete has a highly diverse donor base.

That might be, but the latest analysis of donor bases on 538 doesn't even mention the precious Mayor Pete.

"...[W]ell healed donor base," R3? Gee -- what was wrong with them?

Just remember. The Russians and the Republicans have the same tactics and it is not beyond the scope of their imaginations to inflate candidates and bundle donations to make some candidates look better than they really are. Not talking about Pete, but it's certainly true with Bernie and Tulsi.

R11: It's not true with either. Cut the crap already. Gabbard sucks all on her own and Sanders has a committed base of support. Deal with it.

R12, Hunny, no need to be rude. You're right. But so am I. Both things can be true.And it has been proven that the bots are very active

Looks like the Democrats are getting rid of all the white guys.

Too bad - I liked Swalwell and Inslee

Moulton's out? Damn! The only candidate who didn't support bigots/bigotry.

Tulsi made herself look good at the last debate when she singlehandedly ended Kamala Harris, R11.

R15: Inslee was important because of the climate change issue. I hope the other top candidates do meet with him to incorporate his ideas into their campaigns. It's a shame he's out before Tulsi Gabba Gabba though...

OK. Wednesday is D day! That's the deadline. Not only do they have to meet the donor level, they have to have at least 2% or more in four DNC accepted polls. So De Blasio, Gillebrand, Beto, Delaney, Bullock, Ryan, and probably Bennet will be gone. Tulsi too, I hope. Probably Klobuchar too.

[quote]Looks like the Democrats are getting rid of all the white guys.

Identity politics is why Democrats will lose.

Biden, Pete, Beto and Sanders are white. I liked Inslee and Bullock. There are still too many candidates

R3, That’s because the media used the south bend shooting to unfairly race bait. Eric Logan went after the cop with a knife, the cop had the right to shoot him. If it had happened on the watch if one of their preferred candidates it wouldn’t have been an issue at all.

They’ve already established that bringing up Kamala racial issues is frowned upon. Tulsi got burned bad. Pete is apparently up for attacks.

R22: Keep spinning your tin foil hat there, babe.

[quote]Eric Swalwell Mike Gravel (fun fact, his real name is Maurice) John Hickenlooper Jay Inslee Seth Moulton

Holy fuck, use a fucking comma, jackass

[quote]Identity politics is why Democrats will lose.

For over two years, BernieBros have been saying this, but the second you use the term "BernieBro," they start screaming about identity politics left, right and sideways. "How DARE you call us all white men?!?!? How DARE you misgender me!!!!" &c. &c.

It's just something you guys say because you didn't like hearing that maybe an old straight white guy for president again isn't the best idea in the world.

Tulsi going after Kamala didn't help her as she has not qualified for the next debate, but Kamala has. So far these are the ones that have qualified for the next debate.

Biden

Booker

Buttigieg

Castro

Harris

Klobuchar

O'Rourke

Sanders

Warren

Yang

I really like Klobuchar, but she's just not catching on. It's a shame, because when I listen to what she has to say, she's focused, articulate, intelligent and steady. She knows her stuff and has practical ideas. She's just not flashy enough, I guess. I'm not looking for flashy. I'm looking for someone like her.

R26: 10. That's good for now. Everyone else out of the pool!

R25: It's usually the right wingers who scream that because they're racists who want to deflect from their own white identify politics.

R27: She's a horrible person. She's mean, abusive, callous. I wouldn't want that anywhere near the White House.

Kamala is being pushed hard. She’s getting the Clinton protection already. Tulsi Gabard makes one point about Harris and all the hosts on CNN and NBC can’t get their pitchforks out.. They couldn’t smear her with “Russia” and” Assad” fast enough.

Of course meetings win Assad isn’t bad if Nancy pelosi does it.

R26, The dnc blocked her from appearing. She did enough damage to their golden girl last time.

R29: Hi, Mr. Gabbard. Any new videos of Tulsi surfing lately? How's your Hare Krishna cult that even Hindus want nothing to do with?

No r22, the shooting put Pete's slim record under the spotlight, highlighting the simmering issues within his community. Notice, he works extra hard to avoid ever criticizing the police force or giving a rational explanation for the lack of diversity on the force. The situation showed that Pete knows how to say the right things, but he is unable to emotionally connect with non-white) people in a retail politics type of way. He needs to work on that skill.

His boy scout facade is easily removed when challenged, see Swalwell death stare and his disconnected look while addressing the angry crowed in South Bend. He reminds me of a Will Conway from House of Cards. Still he would be just fine as President. If nominated these minor issues would be washed over as we focus on Trump.

R30: You're behaving very badly, Mr. Gabbard. You should calm yourself with some tea. Otherwise, discipline may be required here......

R29, if she had just attacked Pete instead of Kamala all would have been fine.

r30 was it the DNC that blocked her or voters turned off by her religious background, homophobia, and inability to explain her meeting with Assad? I'm no Kamala fan, but the rules are the same across the board. Dems don't want Tulsi.

R35, she’s explained her meeting with Assad many times. It’s kamala that cant explain why she spent years oppposing body cams on officers, why she fought to keep an innocent man on death row, fought to keep the cash bail system in place, and fought to use prisoners for slave labor.

Even worse the media didn’t actually ask kamala to explain these things. They just asked her to attack tulsi. Lol

[quote]Identity politics is why Democrats will lose.

Uh-huh. That's what you said in 2018. How did that work out for you?

Sanders--Gabbard 2020

Nancy meets with Assad=good

Tulsi meets Winn assad =bad

And yet Bill DeBlasio soldiers on despite having zero chance of winning and zero chance of any Democrat giving him a job in their administration.

I still want to know who is funding his campaign and what's in it for them (tax break? money laundering? delusion?)

I didn’t even know Mike Gravel was in the race, and now he’s out! It’s kind of like reading news some Disney or Nickelodeon star you’ve never heard of has died. “That’s sad, who again?”

Tulsi isn’t billionaire approved like Kamala is. Tulsi will but an end to their warmongering, can’t have that

Earrings

Caftans

Gin

Regrets

Is it just me or would Eric Swalwell look better with glasses? He just always seems like he’s squinting to me.

[quote]was it the DNC that blocked her

Of course it wasn't. The rules were set months ago and haven't changed. If Gabbard can't meet the requirements, that's on her, not on the DNC. Most people think that the rules were set too loose rather than the other way around, allowing marginal candidates to hang around longer than perhaps they should.

ok r36, but that has nothing to do with the DNC. Voters don't support her, period. Kamala has some traits that voters like, check the polls. The media always has a favorite of the month, have some of you never been through an election cycle? Neither Kamala or Tulsi are leading the pack, so it's almost a moot point at this time.

R46, the DNC adores Kamala so does Hillary.

Who is the hunk at R32

[quote] at well healed donor parties.

Oh, [italic]dear.[/italic]

[quote] Who is the hunk at [R32]

Vince Edwards, Rose. That's why r32 refers in the post to Will Conway from "House of Cards"--to throw you off the scent.

[quote]Uh-huh. That's what you said in 2018. How did that work out for you?

The far Left lost, idiot. This is the presidency, not national elections. The progressive base overwhelmingly lost in 2018. They will sink the presidential election for Democrats again in 2020. Mark my words.

BernieBros ALWAYS blame the DNC, r45. They blamed the DNC because the states with closed primaries, all of which were set LONG BEFORE the elections, wouldn't open them up so Republicans could ratfuck the primaries by voting for Sanders.

R52: Your theory doesn't hold, as open and semi-open primary states saw no ratfucking either. It's impossible to ratfuck when your own party has a competitive primary, which the Nazis had in 2016. That had more to do with first time voters not understanding the rules, which is understandable since we have 50 different sets of rules and the media and education system do jack shit to explain any of them.

Man, I was going to donate to Inslee. Oh well, I guess it's delusional to think my donation would have pushed him up.

I can’t wait till Pete becomes president!

[quote]R46, the DNC adores Kamala so does Hillary.

So what? That means absolutely nothing. The rules were agreed on by all parties, have been set for months, and the DNC isn't changing them. If a few staffers at the DNC "adore" Harris, which you will not and cannot prove, it matters not at all.

[quote]The far Left lost, idiot.

The Democratic Party won, idiot. Just as the Democratic Party looks as though it will retain the House and has a real shot at the Senate. And that was despite the hand-wringing and concern-trolling from idiots like you throughout the entire cycle.

As for the Presidency, all of the major Democratic candidates are polling very well against Trump, despite the supposed "identity politics." Most of them are beating him.

[quote]They will sink the presidential election for Democrats again in 2020. Mark my words.

Why on earth should we when you have absolutely nothing to back them up? Democrats in 2020 will be running on health care, on the economy, on the minimum wage, on economic fairness, and yes, on Trump. Will there be "identity politics?" Sure. Why not? Will it dominate the discussion? Not a chance, just as it didn't in 2018.

The media wants a contest, a "business as usual" bullshit hyped up thing, so they keep talking about who is exciting and who isn't, and they talk about healthcare and stir up controversies, magnifying any disagreements. But the truth is , and this has been tested and proven, Trump is the issue that will excite the voters. Getting rid of him. The media is either ignoring or deliberately misrepresenting how truly angry people are. We are going to turn out in overwhelming numbers to get rid of Trump. Period. And if my dog skippy runs as the Democratic nominee he will get my vote.

I have to say I find the name "Mike Gravel" very alluring.

As, Rachel Maddie says, “Poof!”

Bernie cheated in some of the Caucus states out west. Fact. He bused college students in to vote.

Cull me maybe.....

It's looking like 10 it will be in September. And Tom Steyer won't be one of them, Thanks God!

Tulsi fighting back against the corrupt DNC <3

This video is ~2 mins of complete righteousness. From media darling and next best thing to hateful Russian agent. I'm glad to see her fighting back!

I wish Steyer had made the debate so we could see how he handled it. We already saw most of the others.

Hopefully this will be the end of the over saturation of the beyond lame Marianne Williamson requests for money on YouTube. At least her original ads had enjoyable music.

Agree with the importance of name recognition to garner votes. Several of the bottom tier white males and those who've dropped out didn't really register or weren't able to distinguish themselves from the pack.

Still believe Mayor Pete has a strong chance over the long run.

R65: Why? Another out of touch billionaire who thinks billboards will make a difference in 2019? Please. He should be buying radio and TV stations to counter the right wing media bias infecting this country. But no, billboards. Maybe he'll start showing talkies to promote his rightfully dying campaign next. The guy has nothing to say or offer.

If I was Lorne Michaels I would 100% donate enough to Williamson's campaign to get her in the next debate.

Those skits just write themselves.

R67 Steyer does run ads on TV and radio and he has been for the last year or so. He has been an avid proponent of impeachment.

R69, Steyer's YouTube ads aren't as obnoxious as Marianne Williamson's but he still runs them daily.

Just one debate please. This is bullshit. They need to cull!

And then there were 20. Gillibrand is out.

Next, we need to get rid of Castro, Yang, Amy, Beto, Booker and the other losers. Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris and Pete are enough personalities for one Primary.

Yang has already pulled ahead in the latest poll and he's a much more qualified candidate than those others you mentioned (Castro, Booker, et al.) But the media does not like him.

R74: Qualified my ass. You can't solve the world's problems by giving everyone UBI. That's all he's got. One trick pony.

UBI scares me because I think it would finally cause inflation. But Yang does seem like a one-trick pony. He should run for Mayor or maybe Governor in 7 years.

That's a dream come true...five real candidates. I would pick Warren, Sanders, Klobuchar, Pete and Biden. Booker and Beto need to go NOW.

Biden needs to go. His gaffes are going to screw primary season and the Democrats message won’t get out.

totally agree with WeatherFairy at r67. Our Billionaires are so much stupider than theirs when it comes to media and infrastructure. There is a reason that Rush and Hannity and others have such outsized influence. People invested in them when it mattered and now have a serious voice. Our side just thinks jumping into a race stupidly is the answer.

"Democrat" Howard Schultz officially ends his stupid campaign as of today. FINALLY!! Saw it on the Guardian but I just wanted to link Slate as they have the best headline.

I think Castro and Klobuchar bring something to the debate. So do booker and Bennet, I would love for Bernie to evaporate into thin air. My stage would have Harris Warren, Klobuchar, Castro Booker, Pete,. WTF. 8-10. that's it.

hhhh

We'll see on Biden. He's not as flawed as his detractors express. His age is a factor, but that's well known, and it just has to play out during the primaries.

I like Bennet and Bullock. They aren't well known, but they are articulate and moderate messangers. Amy is better than given credit

My choice is Pete Buttigieg.

Bernie won't win, but will stay in to the bitter end. He'll be divisive again, and only show tacit support for the eventual Democratic nominee. Bernie, Jane, and Weaver, won't be handling any donations I make.

^messengers

Latest polling shows BErnie and Elizabeth virtually tied for 2nd place. One has 17% the other 18%. So if Bernie dropped out, Elizabeth would be ahead of Joe by a significant margin. I can't stand to watch Bernie.The sound of his voice makes me want to hit someone.

I cannot believe we haven't had more drop outs. What the fuck are Delaney, Bennett and Sestak still doing in this race??

And Tulsi Gabbard

R87: We know why she's in still, to spread the message of her stupid cult.

OK, now we're below 20 candidates. About 15 more to go....

Should we start de facto calling some of these candidates drop outs? Why are people like him and Sestak and Delaney in this race? He raised $5 in the third quarter. 5!

[quote]Julian Castro says he'll drop out of the race if he can't raise $800,000 in the next 10 days. At the end of Q3, Castro had about $670k cash on hand.

I’m ecstatic Pete is moving up in the polls.

r91 Fucking good! He's now sending out fundraising emails, trying to squeeze out every dollar by trash talking Pete. He's basically campaigning to be Warren's VP at this point.

Julian, Beto, Harris, The Russian Asset all need to go away... Bernie should retire.

Castro, Beto, and Tulsi probably won't make the November debate, which means they're effectively finished. Amy needs two more polls.

Can I finally update my thread with an actual dropout? Please?

[quote]I didn’t start my campaign with big donor lists or huge infusions of cash.

Yeah, neither did Pete, but his message seemed to have resonated with people, who then decided to support him with their money. It's hard, but at a certain point you've just got to admit that you and/or your message might not be what the voters want or need, at least in this election cycle. That, or someone else is doing it better than you.

Castro, Klobachar, Booker and Tutsi need to drop out right now.

Amy just got her third qualifying poll for the November debate and Beto his second.

Amy just qualified. That means at least nine candidates on stage in November 20th.

*on November

So We have Harris, Klobuchar, Pete, Biden, Bernie, and Elizabeth, Booker Beto, and Castro ? Too many.Booker Beto andCastro need to drop out.Steyer needs to drop out. Tusi, won't drop out but she shouldn't be on that stage. Yang needs to go.

r102 Not Beto, Steyer. Beto needs two more polls.

Oh, and not Castro either, but Yang. Castro is nowhere near qualifying.

Joe Sestak is in to win it....somehow.

r105 He makes me sad. Just go and enjoy your retirement, man. 😕

DL should just declare all those who don't make the debate stage going forward as auto-culled. These hangers on seem to be hell bent on staying in and losing badly.

Candidates taken down by the others.

Joe Sestak is a good man. I voted for him here in PA. But, yes, he needs to drop out.

Tim Ryan drops out.

Tim who?

He's the one who got bodied by Tulsi at the first debate.

R111: Tam.

18 left, about 14 to go

[quote]DNC announces the sixth Democratic debate on December 19 hosted by PBS NewsHour and Politico in Los Angeles.

[quote]Candidates will need 1a) 4% in four national or early state polls OR 1b) 6% in two early state polls AND 2) 200,000 unique donors, including 800 in 20 states.

^^ Qualification window Oct 16 to Dec 12. Currently Biden, Sanders, and Warren are qualified. Buttigieg and Harris have three polls, with one being an early state >6%. Steyer has one, but hasn't hit the donor threshold.

Yang and O'Rourke have hit the donor threshold, but have no polls.

[bold]Qualifying For The December Debate Will Be Difficult For Many Democrats[/bold]

[quote]Although many candidates will reach the donor threshold for the sixth debate — eight already have and more likely will — it looks like the stricter polling requirement will make it tougher sledding for many of them. So don’t be shocked if fewer than 10 candidates make the December stage.

I think we might be looking at five candidates on that December stage. Maybe six. FINALLY.

There’s no explanation for these unelectable people with no following, insisting on being in the debates but narcissism.

Let somebody gain strength so they can beat Trump, assholes. And don’t bash people who could be the nominee or VP nominee, or at least are likely to have to go through the confirmation process to be in the cabinet later. Stop giving Republicans ammunition. Anybody who does that is too selfish to be President.

People need to see some conflict to a) weigh their options and b) see who is strong enough to withstand Trump during the general. Besides, the more shit that comes out now, the better the nominee will be prepared for the GOP oppo coming their way.

By all means compare and contrast, but some of the remarks have just been trashy and unnecessary. If you don’t watch it, Trump will be using video in his political commercials. People should be smarter than handing the opposition ammunition.

Well, yes, but those who went super nasty and personal aren't faring that well in the polls, so the voters have already punished that behaviour in a way.

I think that’s right, R121. It’s fascinating how people still expect Democrats to meet a certain standard for decency, but Trump can do anything and get away with it.

If he ate a baby on live TV, Deplorables would just say, “Baby Au Gratin is a delicacy rich people often have. He’s just having it because he’s so rich and successful.”

[bold]A stunning stat on 2020 spending[/bold]

[quote]So far this year, 2020 presidential candidates have spent almost $41 million on TV ads promoting their campaigns. Which is interesting!

[quote]But not nearly as interesting as this: Candidates not named "Tom Steyer" have spent just $6 million on TV ads, according to CNN's David Wright. Meaning that Steyer, the billionaire Democrat, has dropped more than $35 million on ads in support of a candidacy that appears to be almost entirely lifeless.

Lovett made a calculation on his show that revealed Steyer spent around $100k for every second of his speaking time at the last debate. Imagine having that much money to throw away.

New CNN/UNH poll numbers from New Hampshire.

With this, Pete qualifies for December debate. Kamala needs one more. Tulsi, Amy, Yang, and Steyer all have one poll.

Poll in your hole

USA TODAY/Suffolk National Poll

Tulsi now has 3/4 qualifying polls for the November debate and 2/4 for the December one.

If only Hillary had kept her mouth shut for one more fuckng month... 😩

New York Times/Siena College Iowa poll (rated A currently but will be upgraded to A+, according to Nate Silver).

Second qualifying poll for Amy for December debate. Third qualifying poll in a row in which Harris failed to get 4%.

When will that little queen booker drop out?

r128 If he fails to make it to the December debate after his performance at the November one, I'm sure he'll drop out. Donors won't stand for any of that low-polling shit anymore, and you can hardly do anything without money.

Harry Enten, CNN's adorkable numbers geek, just put up a slide comparing historical leaders in Iowa at this point... generally they were in the 40 - 50% range and, more interestingly, very few of them actually took the nomination in the end.

This race is wild and unpredictable. Nothing is gelling yet.

It'll be sad when the stress and distance take the inevitable toll, surmounting even the deep and abiding love of Rosario and Corey. I predict the will part as friends with nothing but best wishes for the other.

Buttigieg leads Biden in that Iowa poll at R127?

He does, R132, by one point. What's interesting is that it basically divides in two now, right down the middle... between the progressives and the centrists.

TO be honest, the December debate is bullshit. Most people will have tuned out by then. What counts is the primaries and the work on the ground in the early states. For example, Amy seems to be doing well on the ground in Iowa. And she's been going on TV shows like Trevor Noah, and Colbert, etc. so her profile is getting a boost even if the polls don't reflect it. I'm not supporting her just using her as an example. I'm not not supporting her either. What I'm concerned about is the"wealth gap." The DNC touts this as the most diverse group of candidates, but there is a real wealth gap in terms of Booker, Castro, Harris, being able to raise money. It's really hurting them. The other thing to watch is coverage. Women aren't getting the same "free" media attention that men get. It's true.

Warren got months of glowing media attention at the beginning of the summer (still does in some ways), so the sexism accusation doesn't hold water. The main problem is that some campaigns are run in a shit way.

The money issue is where it is. Pete was a no-name back in March but has managed to translate enthusiasm into an impressive first and second quarter, which convinced donors he's viable. Debates are useful too - Amy got a huge boost after the latest debate when it comes to money and the qualifying polls for the next debate.

Also, there's a point where donors jump ship because we obviously can't go into Iowa with 15 candidates. The winnowing of the field is a natural part of the primary and shouldn't be perceived as evil.

DL won't like it and I don't say it predicts victory for him, but I agree donors will start limiting the horses they back soon, which I think will send some money Biden's way. He's still regarded as the safest pair of hands and I think, once the beauty pageant ends, that is probably going to count for a lot.

r136 You're incorrect there. In fact, Biden has such difficulty retaining donors, super PACs now had to form to help him out with ad buys. A friggin' firefighters' union had to jump in to lend him a hand.

That'll ease his money troubles some. As for the safest choice... look at the latest Iowa poll at r127 - Iowans seem to be changing their minds on that front. We'll see on caucus day; anything could happen still.

[bold]Castro reaches $800,000 fundraising goal and is staying in the race[/bold]

[quote]Democratic presidential candidate Julian Castro raised $800,000 in the last 10 days of October, a fundraising figure that he said was necessary in order to continue his campaign.

[quote]The Castro campaign received more than $1 million in October from "nearly 50,000 donors," according to a campaign statement, and on Thursday the campaign enjoyed its best fundraising day since August.

Money pissed away, if you ask me.

R137, I don't see how you an determine I'm incorrect about something that hasn't happened yet. I was plainly putting forward a theory.

Anyway, my new theory is you're a blinded Warren follower so let me just put this to you: she killed her campaign today. Wherever Iowa's polls go next, Warren won't be at the top of them.

Today was probably the best thing that could have happened to Bernie Sanders.

People donating to Castro, Beto, Harris, etc. are wasting their money now. It's not going to happen. If any of them were smart they'd be trying to broker a deal for something in exchange for an endorsement.

[quote]I don't see how you an determine I'm incorrect about something that hasn't happened yet.

You said donors would flock to Biden. That's the incorrect part I was referring to. And yes, you'll be incorrect in that regard going forward as well. No idea what his polling will look like in the future, I'm just commenting on the money aspect because his donors have been getting antsy in the past couple of months and it'll only get worse. He had the saviour narrative going on for him, but only as long as he was the frontrunner. Without that, he's pretty much toast financially.

And no, I'm not a Warren follower and Biden is my 2nd choice.

r140 Harris has two more debates to turn it around, but you might be right about Castro and Beto - if they don't pull an Obama out of their ass during their respective speeches today and get those qualifying polls for the November debate in the next twelve days, they're pretty much finished.

I said I think, not they will. Please read carefully. I do think that. You do not have the ability to predict the future, Dr. Mesmo, ergo I cannot at this point be incorrect. You are fortune telling. It looks like the bottom just fell out of Warren's credibility. Can Pete assume the moderate lane? None of us know. You can be no more right than I at this point, and no more wrong. So stop confusing your emotions, hopes and wishes with facts by which to disprove anything. Fangurling is so pathetic, even when it's reined in.

Harris' trend is downward in the assessments of voters and she has shown the instincts of the blind, deaf and dumb when it comes to presenting herself. She's gone from attack victim to laughing at her own jokes. What could she possibly do now to turn it around, R142?

Attacking her for laughing at her own jokes... are you Donald Trump Jr.?

It's an observation, not an attack.

And kinda weird.

[quote]What could she possibly do now to turn it around

Look at Amy - everyone assumed she was dunzo, but she showed a mighty fighting spirit at the last debate, got a money boost and qualifying polls for the November debate, and has almost qualified for the December one as well. All as a result of that single debate performance.

Kamala now has two more clear shots to knock it right out of the park, if she gets it together. Stranger things have happened, is what I'm saying.

Fwiw I’m supportIng Klobuchar and Buttigieg and don’t care who’s the top of the ticket or the bottom.

Beto's out.

And....he's done. Down to 17.

OK, Bullock, Delaney, Marianne Woo-woo, Messum, Bennett....follow the tall, handsome man's lead here....

r151 You won't get the attention seeking grifters like Marianne, Yang or Sanders to drop out.

Bullock, Bennet, and Delaney all just want to reach to that speech in Iowa today, which is an important milestone They'll drop out soon after that. It's their ego, wanting to have all those eyes in that arena on them.

R153, Has DL really discussed those 3 candidates?

R152: Sanders is not a grifter, no matter how much you want him to be. So just cut the crap right there. ANYONE not in the top 5 need to get out of this race.

r154 Mainly to make fun of them. One poster did like Bullock because he's a "hot daddy type" (not my words), but that's about it.

Man, I guess I wasn't born for this!

When is tonight’sJ&J dinner?

It’s now the Liberty and Justice dinner (former Jefferson Jackson dinner). Livestream at 6:30 PT supposedly.

Biden’s pre-dinner speech just now.

Yang on Don Lemon tonight. Pretty good.

Warren's final descent has begun saying Medicare for All will cost $52,000,000,000,000! And she sounds like a full-fledged loon explaining it and why it will work. Bye bye Liz

In other words, R162, it will cost the same as what we have today but will give us so much more. As for the "loon" part, your inability to understand simple math really isn't Liz's problem. I don't think she'll be leaving quite as soon as you apparently would like.

Streaming

Buttigieg’s speech was pretty great, but it’s laughable to say he’s a progressive. That was pure centrism with a nod to the social justice wing.

Biden was surprisingly very good. Robust.

r165 Well he actually wants to win the general election not a kamikaze run like 52 trillion Warren.

Yang was quite good. Made me smile and feel hopeful. And he’s the only one who’s not a politician.

What’s Biden’s campaign song? Buttigieg has Panic’s High Hopes without lyrics. Very nice.

The theme of Buttigieg’s speech was essentially “unity is paramount and it means that we will move forward to the extent that virtually everyone agrees. There will be no winners and losers.” Stakeholders and all that. Industry. The very wealthy. He will need their permission. There will not be structural change.

In other words, he’s for incremental change. Expect another health care bill with listening tours and the nearly endless seeking of industry and Republican input and buy-in. Like Obama.

And what’s wrong with that, r170?

r170 As opposed to a sweeping healthcare bill that'll result in a red wave in 2022 and get dismantled immediately, throwing everyone off of healthcare? If it survives a court challenge first, that is.

Incrementalism gets shit done. People have been fighting Trump for they past four years. Do you really want another two years of shitslinging, but in the opposite direction? I'd prefer normalcy and practical solutions myself.

I like them all

Teddy Kennedy was a big believer in incrementalism, and he got things done. He said near the end of his life, something to the extent that the Republicans aren’t going to let you have everything, but you get a little bit, and then build on that, and chip away, and then eventually you get it done. And he and the Democrats got a lot done in that era. They understood you’re not going to win every battle, but you can still win the war.

All change is incremental....go big or go home.

R171: You start big like Warren,so you don't start negotiating from a position already in the middle. Unity is impossible in this country, as Obama showed. You can't "unite" with people who want you dead. Incrementalism as policy gets you a bloodbath in 2022 like the one in 2010 and a younger Trump (Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley) who will be far more effective at enacting their fascist worldview. That's what wrong with it.

Castro is letting his staff go and will focus on Iowa and Nevada exclusively.

Life support, anyone?

Biden being Biden...

[quote]At the fish fry in Cedar Rapids, Biden says he’s in Ohio instead of Iowa. Quickly corrects himself but I spotted some in the crowd shaking their heads.

And these gaffes will never, ever stop. 😩

#TULSI2020!

R178 wants us to ignore Trump's gaffes...

r180 Who said that? There's no comparison. I'm just asking whether it's worth four years of reading tweets like those when there's so many other choices in the field. Food for thought and all that.

ABC/WaPo National Poll (A+ rating)

Biggest shocker is Kamala at 2%. Another qualifying poll for the December debate she's missed.

From r182:

[quote]Warren’s supporters are not highly committed; 65% say they’d consider someone else. That compares with 43% among Biden’s supporters and 50% among supporters of all other candidates combined. (The sample size of Sanders supporters is too small to dice.)

Soft race, still.

New NBC News/WSJ national poll

[quote]Biden 27% Warren 23% Sanders 19% Buttigieg 6% Klobuchar 5% Harris 4% Yang 3%

With this, Kamala qualifies for the December debate.

*Oh, and Amy needs just one more poll as well.

Who the fuck is supporting any Klobuchar? Democrats just WANT to lose this race dont they?

r186, she's not going to get the nomination, so why do you care?

r186 People who want Minnesota to not go to Trump next year. Beyond that, who knows.

Qualifying poll out of Nevada, which is notoriously difficult to poll.

With this, that Steyer fucker needs just one more poll to qualify for December debate. Hopefully he fails on the donor threshold, which he still needs to reach.

Just nine more days for Tulsi to get that last poll to appear in November debate.

R189, If you want to know who will win in NV ask the massive Teamsters' - Culinary Union. They guarantee that all current and retired members vote the party line with payment as needed on top of multiple personal visits.

Regardless, the Nevada caucuses will be influenced by what happens in earlier states.

R191, True. I can easily see the all powerful unions pulling their support for Biden if it looks like he won't win against Trump. Wonder how much of his support is due to people wanting to go with the current winner whomever that would be.

NV skews older so health care is a top priority. Economy is strong so far but visible homelessness is getting far worse as rents are increasing, due to competition from home buyers in CA and China.

Funnily enough, I learned unions are big in Nevada just hours ago thanks to this article. Had no clue about the electorate in that state beyond knowing the Latinx segment is now almost a third of its population. I don't know how many of them will attend the caucuses. Are they less talky and personal than the ones in Iowa?

[quote]One key hire for Buttigieg will work on labor outreach in Nevada, where about 14% of workers are union members.

I do know firefighters (well, their union) are huge on Biden and are financing his online ads ever since he dropped his opposition to super PACs.

R193, I've posted about the super power of NV unions before on GLP. Perhaps you've missed my posts?

Caucused for HRC against Obama (thought he was too green) which was held in my apt complex. Caused enemies between neighbors due to the EXTREME HIGH PRESSURE to switch voting. Refused to show up in the Sanders vs Clinton caucuses and heard everyone complaining that the pressure was far, far worse. Plus there were enormous lines at all nearby locations. What a mess.

A neighbor late 70's and solid Liberal Democrat who has never missed any NV election since she became eligible refused to caucus due to the anticipated problem issues.

Casinos let voters have an extended, paid lunch hour just so they can vote. There's a lot of encouragement for all to participate which includes a lot of Latinx even in the non-union hiring locales.

R193, I'll be early voting for Mayor Pete and skipping the Caucus.

: HOW DO I PARTICIPATE IN THE CAUCUS? A: Any registered Democrat in the state may participate in the caucus process through one of two processes: in-person early voting or attending your precinct caucus. Casino employees on the Las Vegas Strip will also have the option of attending strip caucus sites on Caucus Day. Participants may register to vote same day or change party affiliation at any early vote location, caucus day location or strip caucus location.

Q: WHEN IS THE EARLY VOTE PERIOD? A: The early vote period will be held from Saturday, February 15, 2020 – Tuesday, February 18, 2020. Voters will be able to participate at any early vote location within the county in which they are registered to vote.

[quote]Casinos let voters have an extended, paid lunch hour just so they can vote. There's a lot of encouragement for all to participate which includes a lot of Latinx even in the non-union hiring locales.

That, plus same-day registration is super encouraging to read, but everything else you describe sounds like a nightmare. Why not just switch to a primary? Who the hell has the time and the energy for such drama?

I'm relieved to find out in-person early voting is also a thing, as per r195. That would be perfect for me as an introvert who hates conflict.

R196, Even worse would be conflict and extreme arguing among coworkers who must work together in very small spaces. Protests were launched in 2016 by Bernie Sanders supporters who fairly said that they were railroaded into voting for HRC. They also complained of extremely long lines.

Luckily for me I only have to walk 1 block to get to my early voting location, and have a choice of 2 days each with very long hours. However there's never enough parking on Sat in the general area. Assume many will give up and not show. If I were working, had young kids and no car I'd have to be super motivated to early vote or to caucus.

Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are centrists. It will take a centrist to win battleground states.

Good luck with Warren & Sanders advocating eliminating private insurance altogether, creating a new entitlement program of reparations, pursuing open borders, and abolishing ICE. Not every voter is a Lexus liberal from New England, or dwells in the big city projects.

Pollster rating have been updated by 538: YouGov down to B-, Quinnipiac down to B+, Emerson up to A-

A+ Pollsters:

Monmouth University

Selzer & Co

ABC News*/Washington Post

Marist College

Siena College/New York Times Upshot

Muhlenberg College

[quote]One more key reminder now that the Iowa caucuses are only three months away: Some types of elections are associated with considerably larger polling errors than others. In particular, presidential primaries feature polling that is often volatile at best, and downright inaccurate at worst. [bold]Overall, presidential primary polls in our database mispredict the final margin between the top two candidates by an average of 8.7 points. And the error was even worse, 10.1 points, in the 2016 primary cycle. Leads of 10 points, 15 points or sometimes more are not necessarily safe in the primaries.[/bold]

With today's Quinnipiac poll out of Iowa, which is being discussed in a separate thread, Amy qualifies for December debate...

...and Tulsi for the November one. 😒

Tulsi is probably going to qualify for all of them, since she’s being financed by the Russians. The only thing that can stop her is voters.

Tulsi had such low engagement in Iowa that she wasn't even invited by Iowa Democrats to the Liberty and Justice dinner the other day, and yet she's somehow ahead of Yang in the Iowa poll? Fuck that shit, I'm really starting to believe the Russians are at work.

R201: The Russian would have to have American citizens in at least 20 states giving minimum amounts totaling a huge haul AND she has to meet the polling thresholds. Look, I hate the bitch as much as everyone here does and rightfully so, but cut the crap with this Russian funding nonsense. The only support she gets are trolls and shitposters.

You can achieve quite a lot with microtargeting people in Iowa on Facebook. Which I suspect the Russians would be doing if they were involved.

R202 - Tulsi didn't go because she had active duty that day (remember: she's still IN THE MILITARY). Plus that event is pay-to-play. You have to buy a voter file or open offices, so it's like $150k+ just to attend.

And Tulsi's *still* qualifying for debates all while not blowing through money to for political theater (ala Pete; money sure does buy a lot!). Kamala comes in with dancing troupes paid for by her corporate donors and still is at the bottom of the barrel. Castro went and has 1% support in today's Iowa poll from Quinnipac and spent the cash to make the Liberty and Justice event.

Tulsi is such a frugal warrior angel~! <3

Erm, no, she didn't attend because she wasn't invited. She wasn't invited because she didn't meet the qualifying criteria - certain number of field offices and staffers in Iowa etc.

Considering it's such an important event in Iowa, you simply don't skip it unless you don't give a rat's ass about Iowans, who live for this sort of personal engagement. I'm sure she's banking on New Hampshire, though. You know how kooky those primary voters can be...

[quote]Castro went and has 1% support in today's Iowa poll from Quinnipac and spent the cash to make the Liberty and Justice event.

The poll caught something like two days prior to the event and two days after it, so it definitely didn't capture the full aftermath / excitement.

Okay, R207! Get back to me when Castro's numbers rise and rise after polling accounts for his attendance.

MEANWHILE I will get back to waiting for Tulsi! to qualify for the December debates <3 <3 <3

Castro sniping at Pete makes him look petty and snarky. It’s time for Castro to drop out.

Now Bloomberg is entering the race. We're supposed to be getting rid of candidates, not adding more at this stage!

Debate-qualifying Fox News (rating A-) poll out of Nevada.

Biden 24%

Sanders 18%

Warren 18%

Buttigieg 8%

Steyer 5%

Harris 4%

With this, Steyer needs one more poll to qualify for the December debate.

^^ Food for thought for Amy and Warren...

[bold]Do you think the United States is ready to elect, or not?[/bold]

Yes / No / Don't know.

woman president 76% / 17% / 7%

Latino or Hispanic president 67% / 22% / 11%

Jewish president 67% / 17% / 15%

gay or lesbian president 46% / 41% /13%

16 Republicans and 30 Democrats have filed for the New Hampshire primary. The deadline is close of business today. NH only requires a filling fee then you're on the Presidential ballot. So both parties always get these weirdos who just pay and get their name printed. The link in the middle column will open a PDF to show all the names and the date they filed.

So much for a cull....

NH registration is just insurance policy. I suspect the real cull will happen on February 3rd of 4th, when the Iowa caucus results come in. Every old white man who didn't manage to get 15% (except for Bloomberg) will drop out and endorse someone else.

The only person I really wanted to run was Sherrod Brown. Of course, he withdrew...because he has some sense.

PPP Iowa Poll, Nov 5-6 (rating: B)

Warren 21%

Buttigieg 20%

Sanders 14%

Biden 13%

Klobuchar 9%

Steyer 6%

Harris, Yang 3%

Booker 1%

The very important Selzer poll out of Iowa coming out tomorrow!

Clearly TULSI got the 10% "Someone Else/Not Sure" response in that poll, R216. It's the only explanation for the RIGGAGE.

I had no idea it was so easy.In 2024, I intend to file papers in New Hampshire to run for PResident of the United States. It will be something I can frame and place on my wall at the nursing home...

Has Pilar Palabunda dropped out?

Biden not faring well with net favorability at r216.

[quote]Buttigieg 65%, Warren 44%, Booker 42%, Klobuchar 33%, Biden 30%

You know if Pete breaks out, T will call him a fag or something or a pillow biter

and that'll be REALLY fun to talk about with our straight pals and family.

Delaney is releasing 30-minute ads in Iowa. Those poor bastards...

With today's Quinnipiac poll out of South Carolina, Steyer qualifies for the November debate and Yang needs one more poll. Speaking of...

Yang spent $1 million on ads in Iowa just this past week - more than anyone else - and Biden has announced a $4 million ad buy in Iowa. They can afford to splurge now that both have embraced super PAC money.

“I am Suspending My 2020 Presidential Campaign But I’m Not Finished Yet”

😩

Sestak out.

Bullock out.

Bullock of Montana is out too.I think there may be a senate seat in Montana he can run for. The Republican senator is up for re-election in 2020.

No, he said he's not running for Senate.

You know I'm just baffled why some of these Senate seats aren't being challenged by Democrats who have a very decent, to strong probability of winning and flipping. Cornyn in Texas, Daines in Montana, Perdue AND Isakson in Georgia. Everyone is out here posturing for national exposure but no one wants to take on the risk of going after Republican Senate seats. WTF?

Steyer becomes the seventh candidate to qualify for the December debate, after reaching the donor threshold.

Tulsi and Yang have nine more days to get that last qualifying poll, and Booker hasn't got any qualifying polls yet.

Kamala is out.

Kamala was qualified for the december debate. I wish she would have waited. I was hoping that she would boost her numbers by the Iowa caucus.

I appreciate the fact that she was honest and pretty much said she was dropping out to stop wasting people's time and money.

A lot of these other candidates should do the same.

r232 Per her audit, she'd have to go into debt to finance her campaign. More trouble than it's worth.

BREAKING NEWS: Wayne Messam drops out of 2020 Presidential Race.....2 weeks ago.

His sharp take on the issues and impact on the field will be missed. We condole his campaign.

Yes, I posted it at r224 already.

Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Booker, Klobucher, Castro, Yang, Bloomberg, Steyer, Patrick, Bennett, Delaney, Williamson, Grabass. 15 candidates. Still way too fucking many. The top 4 listed here should be the only ones still in. Everyone else go do something productive. Bloomberg and Steyer could buy radio and TV stations AND fund efforts to win majorities in state legislatures. Patick could help out with that too. But no, everyone wants to President.

Steyer has officially lost the plot.

[quote]I’m calling on @TheDemocrats to open up debate requirements for January so more candidates can participate. This is more important than any one campaign—it’s about finding the best person to represent our party, defeat @realDonaldTrump, and lead our country forward.

Bitch 👏 it 👏 is 👏 December!

Cornyn in Texas is safe. He's well like by moderate and Never Trump Republicans who would be happy to split the ticket to possibly buck the President, but there is no reason for them to buck Cornyn. Ted was our best shot.

Booker, Bennet, and Delaney failed to get on the Vermont ballot. Castro got an extension, lol.

[quote] Marianne Williamson lays off 2020 campaign staff nationwide

AP headline from Jan. 2, 2020.