Sanders makes massive gain in Yougov poll

G. Elliott Morris ‏ @gelliottmorris 4h4 hours ago

All the people in my mentions talking about a "SANDERS SURGE" are going to be pretty peeved next week when sampling error brings him back down to Earth

r1 Wishful thinking. Or at least he has no way to know that.

Sanders has been moving upwards in Yougov polls for a while. He had 13% in late July and 16% last week. So this is the third Yougov poll in a row showing an increase from the previous poll, which makes a pattern.

That's only in Yugoslavia.

YouGov isn't a qualifying pollster.

R4, they got Trump and Brexit right.

r4 So what? Sanders has more than qualified for the next Democratic debate in all polls so far.

YouGov is an online poll and those are the least accurate of all the polls. Polls conducted by phone, like Monmouth, have a much better track record for accuracy.

r7 That's false. And whether a poll is conducted by phone or online has had little to do with its accuracy for a long while. As someone said above, online pollsters did best during Brexit, and "despite" the fact French polls are overwhelminly conducted online these days they did enviably in predicting the 2017 election.

As for US elections, here's what Nate Silver said in 2012:

[quote]In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out.

These days, it's phone polls - especially landline-only polls - that are most biased.

Polls mean nothing when your candidate has been stalled, but when a slight increase takes place in one or two polls, then polls mean everything.

I think they all should just promise a bunch of shit that will never come true. Free college! Free housing! Free cars! Slavery reparations! Billions to black-only colleges! Yeah, sounds like a party.

R8 it’s not false. This is what Nate Silver has to say about polling in 2018, six years more recent than the quote you cherrypicked.

[quote] It wasn’t just Google Consumer Surveys or SurveyMonkey, however — overall, online polls have been fairly unreliable in recent elections. So have the increasing number of polls that use hybrid or mixed methodologies, such as those that mostly poll using automated calls (also sometimes called IVR or interactive voice response) but supplement these results using an online panel.

r10 Wow, you're so incredibly dishonest. Here's the full quote, which includes passing praise for Yougov which you cropped out:

[quote]It wasn’t just Google Consumer Surveys or SurveyMonkey, however — overall, online polls ([bold]with some exceptions such as YouGov and Lucid[/bold]) have been fairly unreliable in recent elections.

You lying fuck.

Duh R11, I was just cherrypicking my quote, just like you were. Turn about and all that...

YouGov isn't a qualifying poll for a reason. Anyway, it looks like a sampling error. We'll know soon enough as YouGov publishes frequently.

r12 Except that's not what I did, you lying fuck. I didn't edit out any any phrase or line from the paragraph I copied. And unlike me, you didn't post a link to the article whose exerpt you copied here, because you didn't want people to see you were engaging in fraud. You're a lying fraudster. Silver explicitly exempted Yougov from his criticism, and thus he contradicts you when you say Yougov is unreliable. Liar.

[quote]YouGov isn't a qualifying poll for a reason.

Probably a dumb reason, since the DNC is not some sort of polling or statistical authority.

[quote]Anyway, it looks like a sampling error.

No, it doesn't, as there's a small pattern showing improvement for Bernie on Yougov polls.

[quote]We'll know soon enough as YouGov publishes frequently.

True.

Spoken like a true BernieBro, r15.

[quote]It's always somebody else's fault

Meaning... what?

"Tony Woodard" is one of the most pompous posters on DL. He self-importantly thinks he needs a 'signature name', yet he mostly lacks the wit of DL's actual signature-name icons.

Morris is cute.

[quote]YouGov is an online poll and those are the least accurate of all the polls.

No they are not. They are extremely accurate.

Extremely accurate is an overstatement. They're rated a "B".

Too bad he's an 80-yr. old Independent Socialist who talks like a cartoon character.

Ok, daddy...

Where do I sign up?